Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
To raise output, AP will focus on farm mechanisation
The Andhra Pradesh Government is sharpening focus on farm mechanisation to increase output State Minister for Agriculture Kanna Laxmi Narayana, said the State Government had taken up an action plan involving an investment of Rs 2,500 crore for farm mechanisation last year. This year, we will initiate smaller programmes at the district level, the Minister said. (Source: Business Line)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on April 25, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19407 5916 54.11 93.64 1462

1.19 1.36 -0.38 5.00 3.78

2.05 2.30 0.14 6.74 5.01

3.88 5.01 -0.36 -1.23 -8.90

13.15 13.73 3.14 -10.07 -10.94

55% turmeric offerings go unsold at Erode

Only 45% of the turmeric that arrived on Thursday in Erode markets found takers due to lack of export orders, especially from the North. No exporter has received orders from North India; but they are buying limited stocks to fulfil their old commitments. Local traders purchased little stock. Of the total arrival of 6,100 bags on Thursday, exporters and local traders procured 20% and stockists bought another 25%, said R.K.V. Ravishankar, President, Erode Turmeric Merchants Association. He said usually during this season, the arrival will be around 15,000 bags. In 2011, 18,000 bags arrived for sale and 60% were sold, when the price was Rs 9,680 a quintal. In 2012, during the same period 14,000 bags arrived, but prices ruled at Rs 3,600. (Source: Business Line)

.Source: Reuters

China buys rapeseed oil from Europe for 1st time in 2 yrs CNGOIC
China, a major consumer of vegetable oils, recently bought a small volume of rapeseed oil from Europe for the first time in two years as it was cheaper than domestic prices, the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) said. Chinese buyers have stepped up rapeseed oil imports this year to cash in on the favourable price difference with domestic prices soaring on the back of a government stockpiling policy designed to boost farmer incomes. China bought 50,000 tonnes of the edible oil at a price of about $1,220 to $1,240 per tonne, including cost, insurance and freight, for delivery in July and August, the CNGOIC said in a report posted on its website. (www.grain.gov.cn) The centre did not identify the country, but added that the deal with Europe was the first since 2010, when China imported a total of 20,000 tonnes from Ukraine and Russia. China's rapeseed oil imports in the first quarter this year jumped 69 percent on the year to 387,234 tonnes, the majority of which came from Canada, official customs data showed. SOY/CN (Source: Reuters)

Re- launch of pepper futures likely

Pepper futures contracts on commodity exchanges might be relaunched soon when the controversial mineral oil issue is resolved. The issue had rocked the Food Safety Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) and led to sealing of 8,000 tonnes of the commodity in Kochi and suspension of trade in December 2012. The Forward Markets Commission (FMC) had asked the NCDEX to resolve the issue before granting permission to relaunch the contracts, temporarily suspended a few months ago. Following this, NCDEX released the payment for testing the samples of pepper sealed by FSSAI, applying for new contracts afresh. As FMC didnt mention mineral oil testing in the contract, it chose to suspend the contract to avoid controversy. Meanwhile, the mineral oil issue related to the pepper stocks sealed by FSSAI in Kochi has gradually lost relevance. Used to polish sub- standard pepper, mineral oil evaporates after three months. That FSSAI is in no hurry to release the sealed pepper is evident from the fact that a random check of two lots in February found no trace of mineral oil. (Source: Business Standard) Confiscated pepper export stock goes for resampling There is a chance of boosting Indian pepper export in May and June, if a resampling of aconfiscated 6,800 tonnes passes a test and if stockists are willing to match the lower price of global shipments. The stock in question was confiscated by the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India; it has given the permission for resampling, with four testing companes assigned the job. The other issue is the gap between the price of ASTA- grade pepper in India and that in Vietnam; the latter is $ 150 a tonne cheaper, at present. Domestic prices have been falling, but there is still a gap. (Source: Business Standard) For India's drought-hit states, on-track monsoon may be too late Although last year's monsoon rains were, overall, just seven percent below normal, these states including major sugar producer Maharashtra and cotton-growing Gujarat - went short, in some cases getting less than half the precipitation they needed. A further drought this year could trigger mass migration to cities like Mumbai as families seek jobs and precious water. It would also hit crops, shrinking farm incomes and so reducing economic growth in the area, as well as fuelling food inflation. India's struggling economy, Asia's third biggest, is at last showing some green shoots of recovery, but anything short of a drought-busting monsoon could put that at risk. A drought can wipe as much as 2% points off economic growth, as farm output withers and consumption stalls.
(Source: Reuters)

Argentine exchange cuts corn output outlook to 24.8 mln tonnes

Argentina's 2012/13 corn output is seen at 24.8 million tonnes, just below a previous estimate of 25 million tonnes, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday. The exchange did not alter its forecast for 2012/13 soybean production of 48.5 million tonnes. (Source: Reuters)

Vietnam sees 4 pct rise in output of top rice crop, prices dip
The output of the winter-spring rice crop in southern Vietnam, destined mostly for export, is estimated to have risen 4 percent from last year to nearly 12 million tonnes, the Agriculture Ministry said on Friday. Rising supply from the country's highest-yielding crop, coupled with slow foreign demand, could further squeeze export prices, which fell this week to their lowest in more than two years. Of the total output, the Mekong Delta food basket harvested 10.6 million tonnes, higher than last year on the back of a larger planted area, the ministry said in a monthly report. The delta, which produces around half of Vietnam's rice output, grows three crops a year, with most of the grain from the winter-spring and summer-autumn crop being exported. The region accounts for 90 percent of Vietnam's rice exports. (Source: Reuters)

Global maize crop to rise by 10 pct in 2013/14-IGC

The International Grains Council said on Thursday that global maize production is expected to rise by 10 percent in 2013/14 to a record 939 million tonnes, restoring stocks to above average levels. Global wheat production is forecast to rise more modestly by around 4 percent to 680 million tonnes, the IGC said in a monthly report. "Closing (maize) stocks will be very tight at the end of 2012/13 but are set to increase sharply, rising to above-average levels in 2013/14," the IGC said. The IGC said global maize stocks were expected to rise by 27 million tonnes to 143 million by the end of the 2013/14 season while wheat stocks were forecast to climb by 2 million tonnes to 181 million. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has forecast that maize plantings in the world's top producer would rise this year to the highest level since 1936. (Source:
Reuters)

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana continued to decline yesterday as higher arrivals of the new crop continued to mount pressure on the prices. Demand from stockists remained dull. However, reports of lower yield in MP due to unseasonal rains prevented a sharp downside in the prices. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.84% and 1.24% lower on Thursday. Chana prices have recovered significantly in the past couple of weeks as stockists have started building inventories to meet the demand for the entire season. Concerns over the yield in Madhya Pradesh, the largest chana producing state, due to unfavorable weather conditions was also supporting an upside in the prices. However, higher supplies of the new crop from the major producing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra is seen capping sharp gains in the physical markets.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3471 3501 Prev day -0.84 -1.24

as on April 25, 2013 % change WoW MoM -3.85 4.88 -3.10 5.01 YoY -3.42 -5.40

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX May contract

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to reduce import dependence. Chana sowing in the current season is 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MP and AP at 15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh ha respectively. According to second advance Estimates released on 8 Feb 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down 3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at 5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9 mn tn. However, erratic weather in M.P. may lower the yield. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).
th

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana May Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Apr 26, 2013 Resistance 3545-3590

3445-3470

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to 0.46 lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook
Chana is expected to continue to trade with a negative bias today as increasing arrivals of the new crop may pressurize prices. However, improvement in demand from stockists may restrict a major downside. Overall output in the current season is comparatively higher and thus no major upside is expected over a medium term.

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar prices remained under downside pressure as higher supplies have been seen offsetting the summer demand. Sugar prices in the domestic markets are seen consolidating at lower levels The May contract hit a fresh contract low of Rs. 2915 in the intraday. The spot as well as the futures settled 0.47% and 0.37% lower on Thursday. The Government has cleared the partial decontrol of sugar. According to this, the government will now have to buy sugar from the mills at open market prices. Also the release mechanism will be done away with, after September 2013. States will decide on the FRP of cane. Indian sugar mills produced 23 million tonnes of the sweetener between Oct. 1 and March 31, about 2 percent less than a year earlier. The Central Government has decided to make available quantity of 104 lakh tons of sugar, as non-levy quota for open market sale, for the 6 months of April, 2013 to September, 2013.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3024

as on April 25, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.47 -0.99 MoM -1.04 YoY 3.22

Rs/qtl

2923

-0.37

0.17

-0.81

1.85

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMay'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE May '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 498.6 386.89

as on April 25, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.18 0.06 -0.82 -1.58 MoM -4.24 -3.12 YoY -15.03 -21.01

Domestic Production and Exports

India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said last week. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.8 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX May contract

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that the sugar output in 2013-14 may fall to around 24 mn tn against current years output of 24.5 mn tn. A severe drought in top sugar producing Maharashtra state has been affecting new plantation and is likely to affect on sugar production in the year starting from Oct. 1, 2013.

Global Sugar Updates

Sugar prices in the international markets traded on a flat note after declining sharply in the previous session. Liffe sugar settled 0.18% lower while ICE Raw Sugar futures settled 0.06% higher on Thursday. Surplus supply situation for the third consecutive year has led to a sharp downside in the prices. Improvement in the harvest in the South American region, especially Brazil, the worlds top producer have also pressurized the prices. The prices are trading around their 3 year lows. Heavy rain in the cane belt of top world sugar producer Brazil has slowed early progress of an expected record cane harvest. Brazil's sugar production will jump to a record level in the 2013/14 season just now starting, with a surge in cane output from an expanded planted area, favorable weather and efforts to renew old and less productive cane plants. Expectations of abundant supplies from the 2013-14 harvest in the other leading producers, such as Thailand, Mexico and the United States have kept prices under pressure. Sugar prices are trading around 2 year lows.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar May NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Apr 26, 2013 Resistance 2935-2945

2900-2915

Outlook
Sugar is expected to trade sideways with a negative bias in the intraday. Prices may consolidate at lower levels over the next few days. Supplies will continue to remain high as millers will release stocks to clear cane arrears. This will offset summer season demand and recovery in the international markets.

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean traded higher for the third consecutive day on
account of poor supplies in the domestic markets. Weak meal export demand had pressurized prices last week. The spot as well as the Futures settled 2.1% and 2.75% higher on Thursday. Indian soy meal suppliers are renegotiating deals with Iranian buyers for April and May shipments as demand for Indian soy meal has slowed significantly due to the higher prices, and buyers are seeking alternative South American supplies. Indias soy meal exports in April are likely to fall to 200,000 tonnes, down 36 percent from a year ago, unless buying from Iran improves. Exports of Soybean meal during March, 2013 was 3,20,265 tonnes as compared to 4,61,892 tonnes in March, 2012 lower by 30.66% y-o-y.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 4081 4073 732.2 716.9 Prev day 2.10 2.75 1.06 1.47

as on April 25, 2013

WoW 1.14 2.23 1.03 -0.80

MoM 10.66 11.58 6.23 4.59

YoY 21.10 16.84 -3.95 -8.18

Source: Reuters

International Markets
Soybean gained 1.39% on Thursday on account of tight supplies of the old crop. Farmers are also holding back their stocks. Large South American crop coupled with forecasts for US weather to improve next week as well as Chinese soy imports data pressurized prices this week. Sentiments remain weak on account of smooth supplies from Brazil coupled with demand fears amid bird flu in China. Surge in soybean imports by China, the biggest buyer, may decline this year as feed consumption drops following a bird-flu outbreak. Data released by National Oilseed Processors Association showed the U.S. soybean crush rose marginally to 137.08 million bushels in March, in line with forecasts for a slight gain from 136.3 million bushels in February. Soy oil stocks edged lower to 2.765 billion lbs, versus 2.79 billion lbs in February. Brazil's government lowered its forecast for the 2012/13 soybean crop from 82.1mn tn to 81.9 mn tn.
International Prices Soybean- CBOTMay'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMay'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1424 49.77 Prev day 1.39 1.20 WoW -0.49 0.22

as on April 25, 2013 MoM -0.96 -1.33 YoY -3.39 -10.57

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil

as on April 25, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 1.09 0.13 0.74 0.00

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Apr '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Apr '13 Futures

Last 2310 462.4

MoM -4.86 0.48

YoY -34.24 -25.80

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil as well as MCX CPO settled 1.47% and
0.13% higher on account of positive domestic as well as international soybean markets as well as positive BMD prices. Indian government increased the base import price on crude soybean oil by US $1 per tons to US $1094. Besides, base import price on crude palm oil sets at US $ 827 and reduced base import price on palmolein crude as well as refined to US $ 864 per tons and US $867 per tons. Imports of all vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, fell 7.5 per cent to 896,714 tn in March, pulled down by the drop in palm oil imports. Palm oil imports dropped 12% to 708,262 tn in March. Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, will set its crude palm oil export tax for May at 4.5 percent, unchanged from April. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from April 1 to 25 increased 5.2% to 1,123,129 tonnes from 1,067,140 tonnes shipped during March 1 to 25.

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 3481 3474 Prev day 0.23 0.06 WoW -1.90 -0.52

as on April 25, 2013 MoM 1.92 1.19

Source: Reuters

YoY -10.81 -11.94

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX May contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures settled marginally higher

by 0.06% on account of short coverings. Higher arrivals have pressurized prices over the last few days. Sowing of Mustard seed is up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Soybean prices may trade higher today as poor supplies in the domestic markets may support prices. However, weak meal export demand coupled with bird flu in China and supplies from South America may cap sharp gains. Soy oil and CPO may also trade higher tracking positive international markets. However, comfortable stock levels may cap sharp upside.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil May NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX May Futures RM Seed NCDEX May Futures CPO MCX Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Apr 26, 2013 Support 710-715 3970-4035 3440-3460 458-461 Resistance 722-726 4120-4160 3495-3515 464-467

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

Agricultural Commodities h
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures traded on a mixed note and recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings and settled 0.16% higher. Higher supplies of the Karnataka crop coupled with weak exports demand have pressurised prices. However, lower supplies as well as good demand for the Kerala crop supported prices at lower levels. Interstate traders, especially from Tamil Nadu are actively buying the Kerala crop. Karnataka crop is trading at lower levels due inferior quality. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is weak due to price parity. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June 2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11, 2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date will be announced in due course. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $6,800/tn (C&F, New York). Vietnams Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 35992 35250 % Change Prev day -0.30 0.16

as on April 25, 2013 WoW -0.17 -3.08 MoM -1.45 -1.51 YoY -5.91 -8.23

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX May contract

Exports and Imports

Indias Apr-Jan 2012-13 pepper exports were reported at 11,550 tn, down 48% (Source: Factiva) while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making India a net importer. (Source: Agriwatch) According to the latest IPC reports, Vietnam exported around 39,000 st tonnes of pepper in the 1 quarter of 2013. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in 2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX May Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Apr 26, 2013 Support 34950-35050 Resistance 35360-35550

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 46 tonnes while off takes were reported at 45 tonnes on Thursday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Harvesting of pepper in some regions in Kerala is already complete.

Outlook
Pepper Futures is expected to trade sideways with a negative bias today. Higher arrivals of the Karnataka crop coupled with weak overseas demand may pressurize prices from higher levels. However, Good interstate demand for the Kerala pepper coupled with low supplies may support prices at lower levels. Lack of stocks for delivery due to lock up of pepper in the NCDEX accredited warehouses may also support prices. No new contracts on the futures markets may keep traders away.

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera May futures continued to decline yesterday on account of higher supplies of the new crop in the domestic markets. However, good overseas demand cushioned the downside. The spot as well as the futures settled 0.14% and 0.65% lower on Thursday. Higher exports data coupled with fresh export enquiries as well as a pickup in the domestic demand had supported an upside in the prices earlier this month. Arrivals of the new crop are averaging around 35,000 bags/ day. New crop from Rajasthan has also entered the markets. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared with 3.719 lakh ha last year. According to the Rajasthan State Budget 2013-14, it has exempted jeera from VAT. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,400-2,425 tn (FOB Mumbai) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 8-9 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 13481 12965 Prev day -0.14 -0.65

as on April 25, 2013 % Change WoW -0.14 -1.97 MoM 0.98 -0.06 YoY 6.29 4.94

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX May contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 20,000 lakh bags on Thursday. Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55 kgs each), same as last year. Exports of Jeera between Apr 2012- Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, an increase of up 86%. (Source: Factiva)

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 0.00 -1.72

as on April 25, 2013 % Change

Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 6598 6388

WoW -2.67 -4.71

MoM 2.87 -1.96

YoY 99.37 75.88

Outlook
Jeera Futures is expected to trade with a negative bias. Higher arrivals of the new crop may pressurize prices. However, good overseas as well as domestic demand may support prices a lower levels. Overall trend remain positive for the Jeera prices as they are likely to stay firm as Syria & Turkey have stopped shipments.

Turmeric
Turmeric futures traded with a negative bias on account of higher arrivals of the new crop. However, good domestic as well as overseas demand coupled with lower output supported prices at lower levels. Unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh have damaged about 9240 tonnes of turmeric. The spot settled unchanged while the futures settled 1.72% lower on Thursday.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX May contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode mandi stood at 6,000 bags while Nizamabad remained closed on Wednesday. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric is expected to trade with a negative bias today. Weak exports data coupled with higher supplies of the fresh crop and huge carryover stocks may pressurize prices at higher levels. However, export demand coupled with demand from stockists may support prices at lower levels. Crop damage and output concerns may also support prices at lower levels.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX May Futures Turmeric NCDEX May Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Apr 26, 2013

Support 12800-12900 6180-6270 Resistance 13100-13230 6450-6550

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton declined 0.7% and 1.52% on Thursday due to weak demand as well as weak international prices. However, lower supplies in the domestic markets supported prices at lower levels. Expectations of export demand from China in the coming days have also supported the prices at lower levels. However, the overall sentiments remain weak as mills are avoiding buying as they expected CCI to offload stocks. Weak global market sentiments have also added downside pressure. The state-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has said that it would offload stocks in the open market to augment supplies. Cotton Corp of India has also sought permission to export 1 mn bales. Lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have caused concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government to direct CCI and NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills. India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing earlier estimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its stockpiles. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 851 17540

as on April 25, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.70 -1.79 -1.52 -2.34 MoM YoY -8.84 -16.45 -2.34 3.66

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton Mar Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 81.33 90.6

as on April 25, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.28 -2.58 -1.41 -2.27 MoM -6.07 -3.51 YoY -8.50 -9.81

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

The Cotton Association of India CAI has estimated the cotton crop for the season 2012-13 at 35.1 million bales as against 37.3 million bales in 2011- 12. However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports. After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.

Global Cotton Updates

ICE recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings coupled with strong weekly U.S. export figures and settled 0.28% higher on Thursday. Prices earlier this week as investors continued to liquidate their long positions and mills held off purchasing into the falling market. According to China Cotton Association, China will continue with its stockpiling policy this year which will boost imports. Exports were higher compared to previous week but lower compared to four week average. According to the USDA report, planting intentions for the 2013-14 season are said to be at a 4 year low. Also, there are expectations of good export demand from China. Reports of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve led to a decline in the prices. China, the worlds largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of cotton this year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn. USDA has initially forecasted US Cotton acreage for 2013-14 season, at smallest in 20 yrs, however, with recent surge in prices, farmers may decide to plant more cotton. The planting intention data is schedule to be released on 28th march 2013.

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX April contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX April Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Apr 26, 2013 Support 825-837 17100-17300 Resistance 860-870 17700-

Outlook
We expect Cotton prices to trade on a mixed note with a negative bias today. Weak global market sentiments coupled with lack of buying by mills in the domestic markets may pressurize prices. However, decline in supplies from farmers due to lower prices may support prices at lower levels. China will continue its stockpiling policy, may also support prices. US cotton planting intentions were reported at a 4 year low.

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