Currencies Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

Highlights
US Unemployment Claims declined to 339,000 for w/e on 19 April. Spanish Unemployment Rate rose to 27.2 percent in Q4 of 2012. UKs Prelim Prelim GDP rose by 0.3 percent in Q1 of 2013. Japans Tokyo Core CPI declined by 0.3 percent in the current month. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of favorable economic data from Japan. Further, decline in US jobless claims data also led to upbeat global market sentiments. US Unemployment Claims declined by 16,000 to 339,000 for the week th ending on 19 April as against a rise of 355,000 in prior week.
th

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI 5916.3 19406.9 14700.8 1585.2 16650.1 1951.6 58497.8 13926.1 93.64 1461.80 2414.00 7200.00 102.09 Prev. day 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.6 2.4 2.7 5.7 2.9 0.0

as on April 25, 2013 WoW 2.3 2.1 1.1 2.8 7.6 2.7 10.0 -0.1 6.7 4.8 3.9 1.8 0.0 MoM 4.1 3.0 0.8 2.2 8.5 -2.7 4.6 12.7 -3.7 -8.6 -14.7 -8.2 0.9 YoY 13.3 6.1 12.3 14.0 14.0 -0.7 -5.9 45.7 -10.1 -10.9 -20.5 -12.2 0.7

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, US jobless claims data also came on a favorable note which also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, US equities traded on a positive note which acted as a negative factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.485 and closed at 82.84 on Thursday.

Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

Source: Reuters

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on account of expectations of increase in foreign funds inflows. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments, weakness in the DX along with selling of dollars from exporters and custodian banks also supported an upside in the currency. Further, forecast that economy will grow by 6.4 percent in the current fiscal year as per the Economic Review report of the government acted as a positive factor for the Indian Rupee. The currency touched an intraday high of 54.09 and closed at same levels against dollar on Thursday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.2,903.80 crores th ($537.24 million) as on 25 April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.58,526.10 crores ($10,847.30 million) till 25 April 2013. Outlook

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR April13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.84 54.09 54.21 54.20 Prev. day -0.2 0.4 -0.30 -0.32 WoW 0.2 -0.1 0.34 0.32

as on April 25, 2013 MoM -0.7 0.4 0.21 0.20 YoY 4.3 -3.0 2.40 2.41

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of foreign funds inflows along with selling of dollars from exporters and custodian banks will support an upside in the currency.

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for April 26, 2013 Support 54.15/53.90 Resistance 54.60/54.80

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated marginally by 0.02 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of disappointing Spanish unemployment data. Further, expectation of interest rates cut by ECB kept Euro under pressure. However, weakness in DX coupled with optimistic global market sentiments cushioned sharp decline in the currency. Spanish Unemployment Rate rose to 27.2 percent in Q4 of 2012 as against a rise of 26 percent in Q3 of 2012. The Euro touched an intraday low of 1.2988 and closed at 1.3012 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of expectation of weak economic data from euro zone. Further, expectation of interest rates cut by ECB may keep Euro under pressure. Additionally, rise in worries over economic growth of the country may add downside pressure. However, optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX may cushion sharp decline in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 70.80/70.55 71.35/71.60 valid for April 26, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR April 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3012 70.38 70.8 70.9 Prev. day -0.02 0.3 0.25 0.31

as on April 25, 2013 WoW -0.3 0.4 0.39 0.41 MoM 1.5 -0.8 0.50 0.53 YoY -1.6 1.38 1.41

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)

as on April 25, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 1.08 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, UKs GDP grew by 0.3 percent in Q1 of 2013 supported currency to gain strength. UKs Prelim Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.3 percent in Q1 of 2013 as against a decline of 0.3 percent in Q4 of 2012. Index of Services gained by 0.1 percent in February from earlier decline of 0.3 percent a month ago. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.548 and closed at 1.5432 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, countrys GDP grew by 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2013 may support sterling pound to trade in green. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for April 26, 2013 Support 83.60/83.30 Resistance 84.20/84.50 Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR April13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR April 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5432 83.704 83.71 Prev. day 1.08 1.069 0.95 WoW 1.0 1.40 1.49 MoM 1.6 1.80 1.51 YoY -4.5 -1.49 -1.71

83.72

0.94

1.52

1.53

-1.66

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.2 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Japans Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.3 percent in April as against a fall of 0.5 percent in March. National Core CPI dropped by 0.5 percent in current month from decline of 0.3 percent in March. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 98.95 and closed at 99.25 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, expectations of stimulus measures from central bank of the country will also exert downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for April 26, 2013

JPY (% change)
Last 99.25 0.546 54.71 54.70 Prev day -0.2 0.09 -0.76 -0.73

as on April 25, 2013 WoW 1.1 -0.75 -0.50 -0.51 MoM 5.5 -5.27 -4.26 -4.24 YoY 22.1 -15.53 -15.92 -15.92

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Support 54.70/54.40

Resistance 55.20/55.50

Economic Indicators to be released on April 26, 2013

Indicator Tokyo Core CPI y/y Monetary Policy Statement Overnight Call Rate BOJ Outlook Report BOJ Press Conference M3 Money Supply y/y Advance GDP q/q Advance GDP Price Index q/q Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Country Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Europe US US US Time (IST) 5:00am Tentative Tentative 11:30am Tentative 1:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:25pm Actual -0.3% Forecast -0.4% <0.10% 3.0% 3.1% 1.3% 73.3 Previous -0.5% <0.10% 3.1% 0.4% 1.0% 72.3 Impact Medium High Medium Medium High Medium High Medium Medium

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