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ABSTRACT
INDEX 1. Introduction 2. Literature Review 2.1 What is meant by hedge fund activism? 2.2 Does hedge fund activism create value? 2.3 Internal Capital Markets 3. Data collection 3.1 Sample of activism cases and peers 3.2 Operating performance measurement 4. Examples of activism 4.1 Rowan Companies 4.1.1 History 4.1.2 Activism 4.2 Temple Inland 4.2.1 History 4.1.2 Activism 5. Methodology 5.1 Capital Resource Allocation 5.2 CFROI and Stock Returns 5.3 Regression Analysis 5.4 Company Characteristics 5.5 Activist Cases 6. Analysis 6.1 Capex Reallocation Findings 6.2 Relationship between DLC and CFROI 6.3 Relationship between DLC and Returns 6.4 Target Characteristics 6.5 Limitations 7. Conclusion 8. Bibliography 9. Appendix
1.
INTRODUCTION
In
2007
there
were
over
75
hedge
funds
in
the
US
alone
that
were
dedicated
to
an
event
driven
activist-style
of
investing.
Together
they
managed
more
than
$50
billion
in
assets.
Since
that
time
hedge
funds
with
this
type
of
investing
style
have
rapidly
been
growing
across
Europe,
Asia,
South
America
and
Australia.
In
the
period
of
2007
and
2008
alone
US
companies
were
confronted
with
a
30%
increase
in
the
number
of
demands
from
activist
investors 1 .
However
the
knowledge
we
posses
as
to
what
affects
these
types
of
investment
have
on
firms
is
limited.
Recent
research
shows
that
the
share
price
performance
in
the
immediate
period
following
hedge
fund
activism
announcements
produce
significant
abnormal
returns
of
around
7%
for
the
target
firms
(Klein
and
Zur,
2009)
(Tirole,
2006)
(Clifford,
2007)
(Greenwood
and
Schor,
2009)
and
(Brav
et
al.,
2008).
The
same
cannot
be
said
for
other
forms
of
activism,
in
the
case
of
large
institutional
shareholder
activism
for
example
Karpoff
(2001)
and
Romano
(2001)
go
on
to
show
that
little
impact
is
made
on
firm
performance.
Yet
the
debate
as
to
whether
hedge
funds
through
their
activism
create
value
over
a
longer
period
of
time,
or
whether
their
interventions
only
generate
value
in
the
short
term
is
still
thriving
with
Clifford
(2007),
Brav
et
al.,
(2008)
and
Brav,
Jiang
and
Kim
(2011)
showing
some
slight
improvements
to
operating
performance
in
the
years
following
intervention.
Greenwood
and
Schor
(2009)
on
the
other
hand
go
on
to
argue
that
the
outperformance
that
hedge
funds
generate
depends
on
their
success
at
getting
targets
firms
taken
over.
This
in
turn
providing
a
double
benefit
to
the
hedge
fund
by
firstly
generating
a
high
premium
and
secondly
allowing
the
hedge
fund
to
exit
in
cash
or
stock
in
a
more
liquid
company,
however
no
further
value
creation
was
shown.
Others
even
argue
that
this
short-term
outperformance
is
at
the
expense
of
long-term
prospects
for
the
firms.
1
Damien
Park,
CEO
of
Hedge
Fund
Solutions,
http://www.finalternatives.com/node/3808
In this research we aim to add to the debate as to whether hedge fund event driven activist-style of investing creates value in the long term by firstly looking at whether hedge funds through their activities facilitate a change to firms CAPEX reallocation between divisions, and secondly at what this does to returns and CFROI. By doing so we are not simply looking at accounting-based measures of operational efficiency, but analyzing the efficiency of capital allocation. Looking at the type of objectives and activities that hedge fund activists engage in many of them look to imply that they facilitate changes within target firms that that in can turn lead to internal capital reallocation. These include the following:
Using a measure Guedj, Huang and Sulaeman (2009) call Deviation from Lagged Capital allocation (DLC) and defined as a deviation in fractional capital allocation across business segments relative to a passive benchmark our research looked to see whether companies targeted by hedge fund activism in 2007 did in deed re-allocate more capital between divisions than peer companies not targeted by hedge funds in the same period. Furthermore, we looked at the relationship between DLC and CFROI, and DLC and Returns. If hedge funds are indeed short-term focused one would expect the share price to improve, but no operational improvement. Our results did not show any evidence of hedge funds improving capital allocation efficiency. When investigating the relationship between DLC and CFROI using pooled ordinary least square regressions with a one, two and three
year
lagged
DLC
our
findings
imply
that
every
$
that
target
companies
reallocated
resulted
in
lower
CFROI
improvements
for
each
of
the
three
individual
years
following
the
reallocation
in
comparison
to
peers.
By
showing
a
lack
of
improvement
in
CFROI
as
a
result
of
hedge
fund
CAPEX
reallocation,
we
are
seemingly
adding
an
argument
to
the
claim
that
hedge
fund
interventions
do
not
create
any
additional
long-term
value.
Furthermore,
taking
market
conditions
of
the
period
2007-2009
into
consideration,
which
exhibited
a
pattern
of
continues
reduction
in
both
the
number
of
M&A
deals
occurring
and
the
value
of
the
completed
transactions,
may
in
turn
give
support
to
Greenwood
and
Schors
(2009)
claim
that
the
outperformance
that
hedge
funds
generate
depends
on
their
success
at
getting
targets
firms
taken
over.
When
looking
at
returns
our
findings
showed
that
firms
targeted
by
activists
also
performed
worse
in
terms
of
annual
returns
for
the
period
2007-2011
in
comparison
to
peers,
with
the
average
2007-2011
return
for
the
target
sample
resulting
in
27.49%,
while
peers
were
showed
returns
of
0.74%.
This
is
not
to
say
that
we
would
oppose
(Klein
and
Zur,
2009)
(Tirole,
2006)
(Clifford,
2007)
and
(Brav
et
al.,
2008)
findings,
which
claimed
that
not
only
did
hedge
fund
activism
announcements
produce
significant
abnormal
returns
of
around
7%
for
the
target
firms
in
the
short
term,
but
that
no
reversal
was
found
during
the
subsequent
year.
Instead
we
would
argue
that
during
the
period
of
2007-2011
and
the
extreme
market
conditions,
company
specific
risk
played
a
smaller
role
than
systematic
risk,
leaving
our
target
peer
group
much
more
exposed
to
share
price
pressure,
given
their
company
characteristics.
2.
LITERATURE
REVIEW
This
section
introduces
theoretical
research
that
is
relevant
to
this
paper,
including
research
relating
to
hedge
fund
activism
by
looking
at
what
is
meant
by
hedge
fund
activism
and
what
role
they
play
in
creating
value
for
shareholders.
Secondly
it
will
review
literature
on
internal
capital
market
allocation,
as
this
is
of
great
interest
when
looking
into
whether
hedge
funds
do
in
fact
facilitate
capital
redeployment,
and
if
so
why
they
might
be
more
or
less
successful
in
doing
so
than
CEOs
or
internal
managers.
2.1
What
is
meant
by
hedge
fund
activism?
There
is
a
number
of
interventions
that
shareholders
have
at
their
disposal
if
they
are
dissatisfied
with
the
performance
of
a
firm
ranging
from
shareholders
voting
with
their
feet
and
selling
their
holdings
(Parrino,
Sias
and
Starks,
2003)
to
forcing
through
takeovers.
Earlier
forms
of
investor
activism
would
perhaps
be
best
explained
by
Jensen
and
Rubacks
(1983)
definition
as
investors
or
institutions
holding
large
debt
or
equity
positions
in
a
company
and
actively
participating
in
its
strategic
direction.
The
argument
for
why
this
definition
would
best
explain
earlier
forms
of
investor
activism
is
because
it
does
not
significantly
highlight
the
part
of
investor
activism
that
not
only
actively
participates
in
a
companys
strategic
direction,
but
directly
opposes
it
and
its
management.
Jensen
and
Rubacks
definition
might
best
define
the
type
of
activists
that
Bethel,
Liebeskind
and
Opler
(1998)
look
at
including
a
sample
of
money
managers,
banks,
pension
funds
and
insurance
companies
that
held
larger
blocks
in
firms
and
would
actively
work
towards
asset
divestiture
and
share
repurchases,
and
which
are
sometimes
seen
as
the
closest
ancestors
to
todays
hedge
fund
activists
(Brav
et
al.
2008).
Cliffords
(2007)
further
contributes
to
the
definition,
by
including
the
potential
threat
of
taking
over
the
target,
bringing
us
closer
to
the
type
of
activism
that
we
shall
be
looking
at
in
this
paper.
So
what
type
of
events
might
such
hedge
fund
activist
get
involved
in?
The
classification
of
events
as
initially
stated
by
hedge
funds
provided
by
Greenwood
and
Schor
(2009)
and
Brav
et
al.
(2008)
are
very
similar.
These
include:
Engagement
with
Management
as
a
result
of
the
stock
being
undervalued.
Capital
Restructuring,
including
restructuring
of
debt,
recapitalization,
dividends
or
stock
buyback
etc.
Changes to Business Strategy such as business restructuring and spin offs, operational efficiency and M&A activity. Governance issues, including ousting CEO or Chairman, addressing Board independence and changes to executive compensation structures. Sale of Target Company, either to third party or through a buyout with a significant proportion of the firms being taken private.
It is worth noting that not only do the activist often get involved in more than one type of activity in a given firm, but they also often change their initial plan as they gain further information about the organization and depending on managements response. Hedge funds use a variety of both non-confrontational and confrontational tactics to achieve the objectives stated above, such as; by communicating with boards/managements on a regular basis with the goal of enhancing shareholder value; by seeking board representation without a proxy or confrontation with the existing management/board; by formal share holder proposals, or publicly criticizing the company and demanding change; using threat or launching proxy in order to gain board representation or even by taking control of the company through takeover bids. When hearing of hedge fund activism many assume that most use confrontational tactics to achieve what they want. This would in be the wrong assumption in accordance with Becht et al. (2007). Brav et al. (2008) go on to show that only 13.2% of hedge funds go on to launch a proxy and 4.2% go on to taking the firm over. Be it that there is no formal definition of what constitutes a hedge fund, Partnoy and Thomas (2006) present four characteristics by which hedge funds are generally identified. The four being the following: (1) they are pooled, privately organized investment vehicles; (2) they are administrated by professional investment managers with performance-based compensation structures and significant investments in the fund; (3) they are not widely available to the public; and (4) they operate outside of securities regulation and registration requirements.
For the sake of this paper we will not be looking at by what general means hedge funds operate differently to other investment institutions, but for one aspect the fee structure. The most common fee structure amongst hedge funds involves a 2% fixed annual fee based on assets under management and a 20% performance based fee dependent on the funds annual return. This fee structure will prove to be of significance when later looking at motivational factors in relation to CEOs and line managers in the companys targeted by the hedge funds. When researching hedge fund activism many have chosen to go down the path of looking at mandatory Schedule 13D filings in order to identify cases of activism, these include; Klein and Zur (2009), Tirole (2006), Clifford (2007), Greenwood and Schor (2009) and Brav et al. (2007). This is also the path chosen for this paper. Scheduled 13D reports must be filed with the SEC by any investor exceeding 5% ownership in a publically traded company. This must be done within ten days of the ownership exceeding 5%, but only if the investor intends to influence the management of the firm. The report also requires the investor to identify their reason for acquiring the shares. Exactly how the scheduled 13D filings are used in this paper will be explained in the section on methodology. 2.2 Does hedge fund activism create value? Opinions as to whether hedge funds through their activism create value vary greatly. There are also futher question as to for whom and what type of value they might create. The opinion of the man on the street is more often than not that hedge funds are short termed and only have their own interests at heart (Anabtawi, 2006)(Bainbridge, 2006), which often goes directly against what is in the best long term interest for the company. In contrast to research done on large institutional shareholders activism, which went to show little impact on firm performance (Karpoff, 2001 and Romano, 2001) or improvement in their operations (Wahal, 1996 and Gillan & Starks, 2000), Brav et al. (2008), found that companies targeted by hedge fund activism
showed a share price outperformance of 7% shortly following activist announcements, and that this did not reverse in the year to follow. Similar findings have been shown by Clifford (2007) and Klein and Zur (2007). Target firms were also shown experience a limited increase in operating performance. However, this alone may not be enough to persuade the skeptics as to the value that the hedge fund creates to others but short-term shareholders. There is also a parallel debate, which not only looks at value in terms of share price or firm performance, but includes the role that hedge funds play as a useful tool of corporate governance and as valuable monitoring agents. Majority of such research is focused around issues relating to usage of shareholder proposals and proxy processes. Bebchuk (2005); Harris and Raviv (2008) and Renneboog and Szilagyi, (2009) go on to show that there is indeed a benefit to be gained by hedge fund intervention of this form. While the main arguments against as provided by Woidtke (2002), Anabtawi (2006), Prevost, Rao, and Williams (2008) go on to claim that the proposals that such investors make only enhance their own self-serving goals. Unfortunately, very limited quantitative research has been done as to show explicitly how hedge funds might go about and create value by other means than proposals and proxies. This is mainly due to the limited data that is available through databases such as Compustat and the fact a high proportion of hedge fund targets are taken private resulting in these also being taken off such databases. However, some research has been done on these issues such as for example Greenwood and Schor (2009) arguing that limited if any value is created, as activists are primarily concerned with having the target acquired. Their research however is limited by not looking at the value that may be created in these companies once they have been taken over by a more suitable management. On the other hand, Brav, Jiang and Kim (2011) using plant-level information showed that a typical firm improves its improves its production efficiency within two years of activism. Furthermore by following plants that were sold of after
the entry of the hedge fund activist they also found that efficient capital redeployment is one important channel through which activists can and do create value. This last piece of research may be of most relevance to this paper as it aims to look at capital redeployment by looking at changes to CAPEX and whether this may be a general channel by which activist create value. 2.3 Internal Capital Markets In a McKinsey article (March 2012) Hall, Lovallo and Musters claim that most companies allocate the same proportion of resources to the same business units year after year leading to under-performance. However, companies that had a higher rate of capital redeployment would over a fifteen-year period outperform their peers by some forty percent. Why might this be significant? When talking about capital re-allocation most of us associate this to the billions re-allocated through the capital markets. Guedj, Huang and Sulaeman (2009) showed that for every year over the last twenty-five years US capital markets have issued about $85 billion of equity and $536 billion in corporate debt. However, during the same period the amount allocated or re- allocated within multi-business companies was approximately $640 billion per year. Furthermore, they find that when looking at conglomerates that firms that actively change their capital allocation across industries have a lower average industry-adjusted profitability than firms that follow passive strategies. This is due to the inefficiency with which this type of re-deployment is done. Although such efficiency has been questioned for a considerable amount of time (Alchian 1969 and Williamson 1975), not all research would claim that internal capital re-allocation tends to destroy value. Williamson (1975), Stein (1997, 2002) arguing that in a well functioning internal capital market more active allocation may in fact create value.
However,
a
lot
of
the
literature
looks
at
whether
such
a
well
functioning
internal
capital
market
is
in
fact
possible.
What
may
stand
in
its
way
are
the
power
struggles
within
a
firm
and
personal
incentives
that
CEOs
and
division
managers
may
hold
(Rajan,
Servaes
and
Zingales,
2000),
(Wulf,
2008),
(Ozbas,
2005).
In
his
2002
publication
Stein
looks
at
the
type
of
information
that
might
be
available
to
decision
makers
and
divides
these
into
soft
and
hard
information.
Soft
information
being
information
that
cannot
be
directly
verified
by
anyone
other
than
the
agent
who
produces
it,
while
hard
information
being
verifiable
information.
CEOs
mainly
have
hard
information
at
their
disposal
to
underpin
their
decisions.
Although
it
is
most
likely
true
that
CEOs
have
more
access
to
information
relating
to
the
prospects
of
internal
business
opportunities
than
outside
investors,
they
seem
to
possess
less
than
their
divisional
managers
due
to
the
lack
of
soft
information.
If
hedge
funds
did
in
fact
facilitate
more
efficient
Capex
reallocation
it
would
be
interesting
to
see
how
this
was
done
and
how
it
overcame
the
hard/soft
information
problem.
3.
DATA
COLLECTION
3.1
Sample
of
activism
cases
and
peers
Our
sample
of
activism
cases
first
resulted
from
a
large
collected
data
set
from
2001-2007 2
based
on
Schedule
13D
filings.
These
are
mandatory
filings
in
accordance
with
Section
13(d)
of
the
1934
exchange
act
and
which
states
that
all
investors
must
file
with
the
SEC
within
ten
days
of
acquiring
a
5%
stake,
or
above,
in
a
publicly
listed
company
provided
that
they
have
intentions
of
influencing
the
management
of
the
company.
Investors
are
also
required
to
state
their
given
objective
for
buying
the
stake
as
part
of
the
filing.
The
sample
included
236
hedge
fund
activists
and
990
independent
activist
cases
for
the
period
2001-2007.
There
can
be
no
doubt
that
we
are
missing
some
significant
hedge
fund
activism
activity
by
only
focusing
on
Scheduled
13D
filings
in
our
research.
Apart
from
hedge
funds
that
sit
under
the
5%
ownership
threshold
we
are
also
missing
2
As
kindly
shared
with
us
by
Brav,
Jiang,
Patrnoy
and
Thomas
cash-settled
derivative
transactions,
which
are
known
as
swap
agreements
and
situations
where
activist
are
teaming
up
with
other
investors
to
reach
their
objectives.
In
the
case
of
swap
agreements
the
activist
investor
enters
into
a
multifaceted
swap
arrangement
with
an
investment
back
(may
even
involve
several)
whereby
the
bank
buys
shares
on
behalf
of
the
investor.
However
full
ownership
is
not
transferred.
Instead
the
activist
agrees
to
repurchase
the
shares
from
the
bank
at
and
agreed
time
and
price.
It
is
not
until
this
point
of
ownership
transfer
that
the
hedge
fund
needs
to
disclose
their
position
to
the
SEC3.
Investors
teaming
up
is
an
alternative
approach
that
is
increasingly
growing
in
popularity.
Here
we
see
activists
co-operating
with
not
only
other
activist
investors,
but
also
with
private
equity
groups
as
well
as
wealthy
individuals
who
may
own
a
large
stake
in
a
company.
Together
they
work
towards
offering
buyouts
or
other
initiatives.
However,
such
data
is
extremely
hard
to
obtain.
Hence,
using
Compustat
we
identified
all
US
listed
companies
in
the
above
sample
that
provided
segment
CAPEX
data
for
a
minimal
of
two
divisions4
for
each
of
years
throughout
the
period
fiscal
years
2006-2011
inclusive.
This
period
was
chosen
due
to
the
limited
segment
data
published
in
Compustat
pre
2006
that
continue
throughout
our
given
period,
given
that
providing
segment
data
is
voluntary.5
Focusing
on
activism
that
had
been
announced
in
2007
the
above
figures
provided
us
one
year
of
clean
data
to
identify
CAPEX
re-allocation
patterns
within
the
firms,
prior
to
hedge
fund
intervention.
It
also
provided
us
with
data
four
years
after
announcement
to
see
any
development
in
CAPEX
re-allocation
within
the
target
firms,
changes
to
share
prices
and
changes
to
target
firms
CFROI.
Our
final
sample
group
of
target
companies
being
restricted
to
31
3
Damien
Park,
CEO
of
Hedge
Fund
Solutions,
http://www.finalternatives.com/node/3808
4
Those
divisions
being
the
same
divisions
throughout
the
period
2006-2011
5
In
accordance
with
SFAS
131
as
issued
by
FSAB
in
1997
available.
companies of the 225 hedge fund announcements in 2007 due to the limited data
There
is
a
clear
bias
in
this
sample
towards
smaller
companies,
with
only
one
of
the
targets
Sprint
Nextel
Corp,
having
a
market
cap
big
enough
to
be
included
in
the
S&P
500.
The
median
market
cap
of
the
sample
group
being
$892.25
million,
which
is
comparable
to
the
Russell
2000
small
companies
index
having
a
market
cap
mean
of
$787
million.6
A
peer
group
was
identified
for
the
target
company
sample
group
by
matching
firms
of
similar
size
and
two-digit
SIC
codes
using
Capital
IQ.
Again
we
ensured
that
these
companies
had
the
same
required
segment
CAPEX
data
available
as
the
target
sample.
This
was
followed
by
a
manual
search
in
SECs
database
EDGAR
to
ensure
that
the
peer
companies
were
not
themselves
targets
of
activism
at
any
point
during
the
period
2006-2011,
resulting
in
a
peer
group
of
95
companies.
3.2
Operating
performance
measurement
For
our
operating
performance
measurement
for
both
target
and
peer
sample
groups
we
used
CFROI
from
Credit
Suisse
HOLTs
database.
CFROI
cash
flow
based
return
metric
is
a
competing
metric
to
EVA.
It's
main
difference
to
EVA
is
that
it
is
in
the
form
of
an
internal
rate
of
return.
HOLT
has
a
proprietary
methodology
that
converts
income
statement
and
balance
sheet
information
into
an
annual
CFROI.
The
key
components
of
a
CFROI
are
Gross
Cash
Flow,
Gross
Investment
and
asset
life.
The
Gross
Cash
Flow
is
an
inflation
adjusted
measure
of
the
cash
flow
to
debt
and
equity
capital
owners.
The
Gross
Investment
is
the
current
value
of
the
assets.
By
comparing
these
two
over
the
life
of
the
assets
and
recognizing
the
final
realizable
value
of
the
non-depreciating
assets
an
IRR
can
be
calculated.
There
are
important
adjustments
from
accounting
to
CFROI,
such
as
capitalizing
leases
and
R&D
expenditures.
Consequently,
CFROI
has
much
better
explanatory
6
Source:
Bloomberg
power
than
ROE.
The
US
database
goes
back
to
the
1950s
and
since
that
time
the
average
CFROI
has
been
6%
real.
The
measurement
is
available
as
a
long-term
time
series
for
firms
and
is
directly
comparable
across
time
and
across
companies
regardless
of
their
sector
or
geography.
4.0
EXAMPLES
OF
ACTIVISM
In
this
section
we
present
two
cases
of
hedge
fund
activism
showing
what
may
actually
occur
in
these
circumstances,
looking
at
both
how
the
activists
operate
and
how
target
companies
respond.
The
cases
presented
are
those
of
Rowan
Companies
vs.
Steel
Partners,
and
Temple
Inland
vs.
Icahn.
4.1
Rowan
Companies
4.1.1
History
Arch
and
Charlie
Rowan
founded
the
rowan
drilling
company
in
1923
with
one
land-based
steam
rig.
In
1954
Rowan
was
the
first
company
to
do
perform
a
platform
mounted
deep
water
drilling
operation.
Rowan
Companies
(RDC)
went
public
in
1967
and
in
1970
began
jack-up
rig
drilling7.
In
1978
RDC
fended
off
a
hostile
take-over,
which
may
have
still
been
in
the
corporate
memory
as
this
story
unfolded.
By
2004
Rowans
primary
business
was
the
leasing
of
offshore
jack
up
rigs,
producing
60%
of
their
revenues.
At
this
time
the
company
owned
20
Jack-up
rigs,
which
accounted
for
around
11%
market
share
of
the
187
rigs
in
the
total
marketplace8.
They
had
a
reputation
for
high
quality
assets.
Rowans
fleet
expansion
had
begun
in
1995
after
acquiring
the
company
that
had
designed
and
built
all
their
rigs:
Marathon
LeTourneau.
LeTourneau
was
vertically
integrated,
having
a
mini-steel
mill.
Apart
from
building
jack-ups
it
also
built
heavy
equipment
for
the
mining
and
forestry
market9.
Through
2004
RDC
also
had
an
aviation
business,
Era
aviation,
possessing
a
fleet
of
more
than
100
helicopters
and
fixed
wing
aircraft
servicing
the
industry.
These
assets
were
sold
for
cash
at
the
end
of
200410.
7
Source:
www.rowancompanies.com
8
Source:
Bernstein
research
Feb
9,
2004
9
Source:
www.rowancompanies.com
10
Source:
2004
10K
filing
Furthermore,
RDC
also
operated
six
towboats
under
lease
agreements
during
2000-2005
that
were
to
be
sold
or
terminated
during
the
end
of
that
period11.
Rowan
does
not
have
a
great
CFROI
history,
it
is
clearly
very
cyclical
and
until
2005
it
had
only
achieved
a
return
above
its
cost
of
capital
in
199712
while
consistently
incurring
net
losses
that
totaled
more
tan
360m
during
the
period
1985-199513.
The
boom
in
energy
market
in
the
period
2005-2008
produced
significant
excess
returns
peaking
close
to
11%
but
this
soon
faded
away.14
Over
the
twelve
months
ending
June
2007
RDC
had
lagged
the
OSX
Philadelphia
Stock
exchange
oil
service
sector
by
22%15.
A
Credit
Suisse
report
on
the
company,
published
14
June
2007
entitled
Whats
LeTourneau
worth?
stated
that
LeTourneau
was
worth
$1.2-1.3bn
and
with
RDC
having
an
enterprise
value
of
$4.7bn
at
$39
per
share,
perhaps
this
was
enough
to
attract
Steel
Partners
interest.
4.1.2
Activism
So
it
was
in
July
2007
that
Warren
Lichtensteins
Steel
partners
disclosed
a
5.5%
stake
in
RDC
(6,121,827
shares)
making
it
the
largest
shareholder.
It
did
not
make
any
specific
disclosures
on
its
intentions
in
the
13D
filing16.
In
a
shareholder
letter
at
the
time
Steel
Partners
stated
that:
When
trying
to
identify
an
undervalued
company
or
security
we
usually
look
for
companies
with
inefficient
capital
structures,
companies
that
have
allocated
capital
poorly,
or
companies
that
can
use
operational
improvements.
...our
real
home
run
of
long
term
sustainable
returns
comes
from
the
implementation
of
operational
excellence
that
can
change
a
culture
and
transform
a
company
into
a
world
class
company
with
competitive
advantages
and
high
return
on
invested
capital.
In
their
September
2007
letter
to
investors,
Steel
partners
had
a
small
section
on
Rowan.
It
said
that
it
began
buying
shares
in
April
2007
and
owned
a
6.6%
11
Source:
2006
10K
filing
12
Source:
Credit
Suisse
Holt
Database
13
As
per
the
2004
10K
14
Source:
Credit
Suisse
Holt
Database
15
Source:
Bloomberg
16
Edgar
stake.
It
pointed
out
that
despite
the
volatile
history
and
limited
visibility
of
the
business
that
emerging
market
demand
was
resulting
in
record
price
increases.
They
ended
by
stating:
The
drilling
business
generates
significant
free
cash
flow,
currently
at
50%
EBITA
margins
and
the
manufacturing
business
is
expected
to
report
record
results
in
the
3rd
quarter
of
2007.
With
net
debt
of
$128m,
EBITDA
of
$648m,
increased
visibility
in
revenues
and
backlog
demand
for
its
rig
component
parts
Rowan
is
an
attractive
risk/reward
investment
which
we
value
at
a
significant
premium
to
market.
The
same
letter
included
a
comment
on
another
driller
they
owned
namely,
Pride
International.
Pride
had
made
recent
asset
sales
and
focused
on
deep- water
drilling.
The
letter
hinted
at
the
need
for
consolidation.
Steel
partners
stated
at
the
end
...the
underlying
value
in
pride
has
yet
to
be
realized
now
as
it
is
more
of
a
pure
play
offshore
drilling
company.
On
8
January,
2008
Steel
partners
filed
a
Notice
of
intention
to
nominate
director
candidates
at
the
RDCs
companys
2008
AGM17.
Management
responded
to
this
in
an
8K
filing
on
8
January
2008.
Daniel
McNease,
Chairman
and
CEO
stated:
"We
have
always
maintained
an
open
dialogue
with
all
of
our
stockholders
and
have
listened
to
the
views
expressed
by
Steel
Partners
in
our
conversations
with
them.
We
are
prepared
to
have
a
continuing
and
constructive
dialogue
with
Steel
Partners.
The
Board
of
Directors
regularly
reviews
the
value
inherent
in
the
Company's
business
plan,
and
will
continue
to
do
so
in
a
decisive
and
measured
way.
While
a
lengthy
and
disruptive
proxy
contest
is
not
a
preferable
course
of
action,
the
Company
is
prepared
to
do
everything
necessary
to
protect
the
interests
of
stockholders
consistent
with
our
goal
of
delivering
high
performance
and
long-term
stockholder
value."
In
the
2008
April
letter
to
Steel
partner
investors
it
was
mentioned
that
there
had
been
continuous
discussions
with
Danny
McNease,
CEO
of
Rowan
the
resulting
in
the
prevention
of
an
election
contest
on
the
back
of
an
agreement,
which
was
reached
on
30
March
2008.
In
return
for
the
withdrawal
Rowan
agreed
to
monetize
Letourneau
(LTI)
by
the
end
of
the
year.
If
this
would
not
17
SEC
Edgar
database
happen then Steel partners would get a director on the board. It was also states that if LTI was monetized through an IPO then a $400m share buy-back would occur. On the day the agreement was announced Rowan shares moved up 8%. The next Steel Partners investor letters was in September 2008. At this time Steel partners owned a 9.45% stake. Since our negotiated settlement with Rowan in the first quarter of 2008, the Company has announced its intention to sell or spin-off its wholly owned manufacturing subsidiary, Letourneau technologies, Inc. (LTI) and to repurchase $400m of stock. The Company has reported strong interest from several potential strategic buyers and they expect to announce a definitive deal in the coming weeks. Then the letter comments that despite oil being up 56% since they took their stake the stock has sold off aggressively back to where they purchased it despite a fundamentally improved business model. The section ends by commenting that they continue to work with management to unlock value. Continuing to follow this story by Steel Partners letters brings us to March 2009 in the midst of the financial crisis. Steel Partners is suffering redemptions, and gated the fund in December to stabilize it. Steel Partners now declares an 8.7% stake in Rowan, presumably down due to redemptions. On this occasion they state that We initially invested in Rowan, in part, because we believed the sale, spin off, or other monetization of LTI would unlock significant value. Due to the crisis Rowan was unable to complete its side of the bargain and Steel partners placed John Quicke onto the board, soon to be followed by Larry Ruisi at the May shareholder meeting. In further communication with investors Steel Partners state: We were successful in convincing the company to cancel or postpone additional capital expenditure and they have agreed to limit the number of new rigs they are building (cancelling one and deferring two others) as the demand side of the equation has been greatly reduced. This followed a surprise announcement by Rowan in November 2007 of six additional new build rigs despite concerns of global oversupply (there were 80
jack-ups
under
construction).
The
order
was
for
$1.1bn
and
added
$645m
to
the
backlog
of
LTI
with
an
estimated
15%
saving
versus
outsourcing18.
Furthermore,
Steel
Partners
had
been
successful
in
getting
Rowan
to
adopt
lean
practice
utilizing
the
Steel
Partners
Lean
methodology19.
Danny
Mcnease,
the
CEO
had
retired
at
the
end
of
2008
and
now
steel
Partners
was
dealing
with
W.
Matt
Ralls,
who
was
COO
at
GloablSantaFe
Corp.
On
15
July,
2009
Steel
partners
disclosed
that
its
stake
had
been
reduced
to
3.8%.
The
agreement
that
got
Lawrence
Ruisi
onto
the
board
stipulated
a
minimum
stake
of
5%.
Ruisi
quit
the
board
Jumping
ahead
to
March
2010,
Steel
Partners
has
restructured
into
a
holding
company.
Rowan
only
gets
mentioned
in
a
section
saying
its
stake
has
been
reduced.
The
sale
or
spin
of
LTI
was
still
on
the
cards.
W.
Matt
Ralls
in
the
2011
shareholder
letter
said
that
it
expected
2011
to
offer
suitable
conditions
to
begin
the
process.
Later
that
year
the
company
realized
$1bn
from
the
sale
of
its
manufacturing
operations
(quite
a
lot
less
than
Steel
partners
had
estimated)
and
it
also
sold
its
onshore
drilling
operations
for
$513m.
John
Quicke
remains
on
the
board.
See
Appendix
for
HOLT
chart
4.2
Temple
Inland
case
study
4.2.1
History
Both
Temple
and
Inland
have
long
histories,
but
Temple
and
Inland
were
put
together
inside
Time
Inc.
(TIN)
in
1978
and
then
spun
off
in
1983
as
Temple
Inland
Inc.
The
combined
firms
created
a
conglomerate
that
offered
financial
services,
banking
services,
included
a
real
estate
portfolio
but
also
operated
a
packaging
and
forest
products
segment20.
In
the
mid-1990's,
though,
Mr
Temple
stepped
down
from
his
duties
on
the
board
of
directors,
and
I
think
we
all
realized
that
something
big
had
changed.
Like
a
boat
that
loses
its
anchor,
the
culture
of
the
company
began
to
drift,
to
18
Source:
David
Smith,
JPMorgan
(2/11/07)
19
Steel
Partners
letter
to
investors
Nov
2008
20
Source:
Temple
Inland
website
change into one that placed less emphasis on the long-term sustainability of the company and more emphasis on quarterly, and then monthly, profits and loss. The culture changed slowly from familial competitive to corporate competitive, and there was a difference21. 4.2.2 Activism Activist involvement in Temple Inland actually dates back to the start of the decade when in March 2000 LENS Investment Management made a filing pushing for TIN to spin-off its banking and financial services division which it claimed would improve its transparency and accountability22. As a sign of the change at TIN they announced in 2003 Project TIP the Transformation, Innovation and Performance initiative is rolled out to improve organizational effectiveness, reduce costs and streamline corporate functions.23 A few years later, in February 2005, Icahn who had built a 2% stake threatened to nominate directors in a proxy battle but nothing happened24. Posted on the temple Inland website in 2006 was: "Our technology-driven, low-cost systems keep our plants operating in the lowest cost quartile, delivering a 37% ROI for 2006." Two years after announcing his 2% stake, Icahn increased his stake through the 5% threshold and therefore appeared on our activist list for 2007 with a 13D filing as at 22/01/2007 and a stake of 6.7% 25. On this disclosure the stock jumped 8% to $4526. In the 'Purpose of Transaction' section of the 13D filing Icahn stated:
21
Source:
Change
is
in
the
air...
and
on
the
ground
for
Temple
Inland
by
Chuck
Ray,
http://gowood.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/
22
Source:
Bloomberg
Business
week
February
26,
2007
23
Source:
Temple
Inland
2003
Annual
Report.
24
Source:
Bloomberg
Business
week
February
26,
2007
25
Source:
Bloomberg
Business
week
February
26,
2007
26
'Icahn's
bad
bet'
by
Herb
Greenberg,
WSJ
8th
Nov
2007.
"The Reporting Persons acquired their positions in the Shares in the belief that they were undervalued due to, among other things, the conglomerate structure of the Issuer in which various disparate and non-complementary businesses are combined under one corporate umbrella. The Reporting Persons believe that this structure obfuscates the true value of the Issuer's assets and note that various analysts have issued sum of the parts analyses that imply a value for the Shares that is significantly higher than their current market price. The Reporting Persons intend to seek to have conversations with members of the Issuer's management to discuss ideas that management and the Reporting Persons may have to enhance shareholder value, which may include, among other things, the divestiture or spin- off of one or more of the Issuer's component businesses (which may include Guaranty Bank, the corrugated packaging business, timberland holdings, the building products business and/or the real estate division). The Reporting Persons may consider engaging in a proxy contest to attempt to replace one or more members of the Issuer's staggered board of directors with persons nominated by the Reporting Persons, but have as yet made no definite decision to do so." From the 2006 10K one can see the significance of the financial services operations:
In the previous three years capital expenditure had been fairly stable ($221m, $222m, $208m) although 2006 did include a fairly sizeable acquisition in January of $196m for Standard Gypsum. The company disclosed divisional assets and in the 2005/6 period assets had increased in Real Estate and Financial services by $41m and $90m respectively to $422m and $1,017m. The reported GAAP assets in the Forest and the Corrugated divisions were shrunk by $53m
and
$141m
to
$866m
and
$2,318m
respectively.
It
would
appear
that
the
real
estate
and
mortgage
boom
was
seducing
management
to
grow
these
businesses27.
Icahns
13D
filing
was
quickly
followed
up
by
announcing
on
Friday
16
February,
that
he
would
nominate
four
directors
to
the
board
at
the
AGM28.
It
didnt
take
long
for
the
management
to
respond,
as
on
26
February,
2007
TIN
said
that
it
would
split
into
three
public
companies
(retaining
manufacturing
and
spinning
financial
services
and
real
estate)
committing
to
sell
its
timberland
operations
by
the
end
of
the
year.
According
to
S&P
the
spin-off
businesses
account
for
24%
of
sales
and
33%
of
historic
EBIT.
The
shares
moved
up
13%
on
the
news
and
closed
around
$6329.
Icahn
bought
his
shares
in
the
range
of
$39
to
$4730.
At
this
point
Icahn
dropped
his
proxy
threat.
He
was
quoted
saying
"Temple-Inland's
management
and
board
of
directors
should
be
commended
for
listening
to
the
concerns
that
we
and
other
shareholders
have
expressed
and
for
announcing
plans
to
take
the
actions
we
suggested".
The
stock
reached
a
high
of
$65
in
July31
and
then
as
the
credit
crisis
emerged
the
real
estate
and
lending
businesses
came
under
pressure.
On
10th
September
Icahn
announced
his
ownership
of
9.4m
shares,
an
8.65%
stake
resulting
in
the
shares
moving
up
4%
to
$55.6.
On
the
3rd
of
October
Icahn
again
announced
an
increase.
This
time
his
position
had
increased
from
8.8%
from
8.65%,
sending
the
shares
6%
higher.
In
the
filing
Icahn
declared
he
had
used
derivatives
with
no
voting
power
to
gain
an
exposure
of
5m
shares.
27
Source:
2006
annual
report
28
Source:
13D
tracker
31/1/07
29
Source:
Bloomberg
Business
week
February
26,
2007
30
Source:
www.bloggingstocks.com
February
26,
2007
31
Source:
Bloomberg
The
timberland
assets
of
1.55m
acres
were
sold
in
October
for
$2.38bn,
the
proceeds
in
loan
notes
due
2027.
Proceeds
were
expected
to
be
$1.8bn
and
TIN
would
pay
a
special
dividend
of
$10.25
per
share
or
$1.1bn
and
the
remaining
cash
used
to
pay
down
debt32.
And
yet,
the
stock
soon
fell
back
to
$45
on
Friday
16
November
2007,
the
same
price
as
after
the
13D
filing
in
January.
Temple-Inland
completed
the
spin-off
of
its
Guaranty
Financial
(GFG)
and
Forestar
(FOR)
real
estate
units
on
31
December.
TIN
closed
the
year
just
under
$30
and
after
the
spin
ownership
of
one
share
of
TIN
including
the
spun
companies
was
worth
around
$3233.
Icahn
continued
to
use
options
and
reported
on
15
February
2008
that
he
had
approximately
a
9.77%
stake.
By
his
Q4
2008
13F
filing
Icahn
had
sold
out
completely
of
temple
Inland
but
remained
owning
the
spin
companies.
Icahn
owned
close
to
10%
of
the
spun-out
Guaranty
Financial
trading
at
$12
per
share
which
ended
badly
as
Guaranty
declared
bankruptcy
in
the
summer
of
2009,
just
fifteen
months
after
the
spin
off.
At
the
time
it
was
the
tenth
biggest
bank
bankruptcy
in
US
history34.
It
is
not
clear
whether
Icahn
made
any
money
from
his
investment
in
Temple
Inland.
Forestar
(FOR)
has
been
more
successful,
although
it
has
underperformed
the
market
as
its
CFROI
has
fallen
from
6.5%
in
2007
to
3.6%
in
2011.
Today
it
has
a
share
price
of
$22,
a
market
capitalisation
of
$720m
and
expectations
that
CFROI
has
troughed
and
the
shares
have
started
outperforming
recently35.
The
final
chapter
for
Temple
Inland
story
was
entered
as
of
the
6th
June,
2011
when
International
paper
(IP)
made
an
offer
of
$3.3bn
for
TIN.
The
shares
jumped
42%
on
the
open
and
International
Paper
rose
4%.
32
Source:
2007
annual
report
33
Source:
WSJ
3/1/2008,
Seeking
alpha,
by
Herb
Greenberg
34
Source:
A
Time-Ripened
Tale
of
Toxic
Assets,
a
Corporate
Spin-Out
&
a
Failed
Bank,
Nov.
14,
A
deal
was
finally
settled
in
September
with
a
final
offer
in
the
order
of
$3.7bn
including
a
$105m
break
clause.
At
the
point
of
sale
there
was
no
on
going
hedge
fund
activism
in
the
firm36.
See
Appendix
for
HOLT
chart
5.
METHODOLOGY
We
are
attempting
to
identify
whether
hedge
fund
activists
facilitate
internal
capital
reallocation
through
their
interaction
with
firms
and
look
at
what
this
might
do
to
the
targets
returns
in
order
to
add
to
the
debate
on
whether
hedge
funds
create
value
through
their
intervention.
We
also
look
at
two
examples
of
hedge
fund
activity
where
the
initial
stated
objective
included
measures
effecting
capital
reallocation
in
order
to
see
how
this
might
be
done.
5.1
Capital
resource
allocation
In
order
to
see
if
hedge
funds
do
in
fact
facilitate
resource
allocation
we
start
by
looking
at
whether
firms
where
hedge
funds
have
openly
stated
their
intention
to
be
active
by
filling
a
SEC
13D
are
more
active
in
their
CAPEX
reallocation
between
business
segments
than
firms
that
are
not
targeted.
We
make
no
assumptions
as
to
whether
above
or
below
average
reallocation
activity
provides
higher
operating
efficiency
(Guedj,
Huang,
Sulaeman,
2009)
(Harris
and
Raviv,
1996)
(Ozbas,
2005).
Neither
do
we
look
to
identify
whether
any
one
explicit
form
of
capital
allocation
is
more
efficient
than
the
other
(Billett
and
Mauer,
2003).
We
aim
to
identify
whether
firms
targeted
by
hedge
fund
activism
in
2007
are
more
or
less
active
in
their
CAPEX
reallocation
than
their
peers
for
the
period
running
up
to
2011.
Using
CAPEX
as
a
proxy
provides
us
with
the
most
readily
available
segment
data
to
get
a
quorate
that
is
available
through
Compustat.
It
also
allowed
us
to
look
across
all
industries
unlike
if
we
were
to
look
to
measure
improvement
on
total
factory
productivity
Brav,
Jiang
and
Kim.
(2011),
which
would
only
allow
36
Source:
NY
Times
6/9/11,
Michael
Merced
and
Jeffrey
Cane
analysis of firms that have their own production. Ideally we would have also liked to include an analysis of other forms of resource allocation such as changes to R&D, PPE, human capital and fixed assets. However the lack of segment data would have rendered the sample group unfit for purpose. To measure CAPEX reallocation between divisions we used a capital allocation activeness measure (DLC) 37 showing change in fractional capital allocation across business segments over the period 2006-2011. The formula below shows the activeness of CAPEX allocation by looking at fractional allocation by division against the prior year. A firm is active if it changes relative percentage allocations from year to year.
This
is
for
all
divisions
i
in
the
set
F
of
divisions
of
firm
f
in
year
t.
The
resulting
DLC
is
therefore
between
0
and
1.
The
measurement
is
compared
to
a
passive
benchmark
of
the
previous
year's
allocation.
If
a
company
adds
a
division
or
removes
a
division
we
have
left
these
data
points
in
and
count
them
as
active
allocation.
This
is
different
to
the
methodology
in
the
paper
by
Guedj,
Huang
and
Sulaeman
(2009).
They
give
an
example
of
a
company
having
divisions
A,
B
and
C
in
year
t- 1
and
B,C,D
in
year
t.
In
this
case
they
only
include
B
and
C
in
set
F
for
the
calculation
of
DLCf,t.
We
have
changed
the
calculation
to
include
A
as
a
zero
in
year
t
and
D
as
a
zero
in
t-1.
The
effect
of
this
is
to
show
this
case
as
active
allocation.
The
reason
for
allocation
and
firm
performance
amongst
conglomerates.
37
As
introduced
by
Guedj,
Huang
and
Sulaeman
(2009)
when
looking
at
internal
capital
doing this is to allow for M&A and spin-offs to be included as resource allocation. The downside of this method is if the company has simply reclassified rather than made an active decision. We have looked at the examples to see where this might be the case and where found we would not count it in the DLC. They also state that in case of no common divisions the DLC is defined missing. In our data set this case does not arise. Such DLC calculations were done for each of the 31 firms involved in hedge fund activism and 95 peers for the period 2007-2011, allowing for 5 data points for each of the targets and peers. 5.2 CFROI and Stock Returns To identify the extent to which a firm creates value through their decisions related to capital allocation we looked at year-end CFROI as our operating performance measurement, and year-end Stock Returns for all target firms and peers alike throughout the period 2006-2011. We gathered the CFROI data using Credit Suisse HOLTs database and the stock returns using closing share price data from Bloomberg. The key components of a CFROI are Gross Cash Flow, Gross Investment and asset life. Given the lack of such information on a segment basis the CFROI can only be calculated on a company level. Combining all of the data above provided 499 observations for each variable to be included in further analysis. 5.3 Regression Analysis In order to formally investigate the relationship between firstly, DLC and CFROI and secondly, between DLC and returns, I use pooled ordinary least squares regressions. The first using CFROI as a scalar dependent variable and the DLC as an explanatory variable, and the second using Returns as a scalar dependent
variable and DLC as an explanatory variable. Furthermore a one year, two year and three year lagged DLC was incorporated to predict CFROI, as one would not expect an effect on CFROI in the year of the intervention. The same lag effect was added to returns in order to see if changes to internal capital allocation may have been discounted in the share price prior to the actual effect on the CFROI. Time fixed effects were included in the regression specification to control for time varying aspects of the variation in the independent variable not associated with changes in DLC due to activism or otherwise. This being of particular significance given the turmoil in 2007-08 leading to $8 trillion of US stock market wealth being lost between October 2007 when the market was at and all time high and October 200838. As importantly, the US M&A market has had a very rough ride during the observed period with the value of M&A deals coming down from a $500bn high in Q2 2007 to $100bn in Q3 2009. During the same period the number of M&A deals went down from just under 3000 deals in Q2 2007 to 1700 deals in Q1 2009. Since then the stock market and the number of deals have returned to their earlier highs, but the value of the deals in Q4 2012 had still not reached above $300bn39. This could have especially affected hedge fund activists if Greenwood and Schor (2009) are accurate in claiming that hedge fund returns are largely explained by the ability of the activist to force target firms into a take over. A dummy identification variable is included in the regression specification, which is equal to one if the firm was targeted by a hedge fund, and equal to zero if the firm was not targeted by a hedge fund. This variable controls for any difference is performance measure between the target and peer firms not due to changes in DLC.
38
Brunnermeier,
2009
39
M&A
and
stock
market
performance
data
as
collected
from
Bloomberg.
Interaction terms are also added to the regression specification by multiplying the DLC variables and the target firm dummy variable in order to isolate the effect of DLC over and above peers. y!" = b! DLC!" + b! DLC!"!! + b! DLC!"!! + b! DLC!"!! + b! DLC!"!! + b! TD!" + b! TD DLC!" + b! TD DLC!"!! + b! TD DLC!"!! + b!" TD DLC!"!! + b!! TD DLC!"!! + v! + !" Where yit is either the CFROI or annual stock returns of firm i at time t. TD is the target dummy variable. v! are the time fixed effects and !" is the residual. 5.4 Company Characteristics Characteristics of the target firms and peers respectively are also independently taken into consideration and the analysis includes looking at averages and medians of DLC, market caps, debt leverage, CFROI, Returns and Price/Sales ratios. A Welsh t-test was further performed on the DLC averages and medians, which unlike the Students t-test is not based on a pooled variance estimate. 5.5 Activist cases The report also includes the description of three activist cases and follow activity from when the hedge fund makes their activist intentions public and through their period of varying intervention. The information for these cases was collected using Factiva, Bloomberg and Holt.
6. ANALYSIS
As presented in section 1 there is a variety of situations in which hedge funds dedicated to an event driven activist-style of investing find themselves, which could lead to CAPEX reallocation (Table 1.). This being the case, our paper sets out to investigate whether companies targeted by hedge fund activism do reallocate CAPEX differently, and whether they see any benefit in profitability or shareholder returns as a result of this activist engagement.
Table 1. 6.1 CAPEX reallocation findings Bearing in mind the aim presented above, we firstly look at whether hedge fund event driven activist-style of investing creates value in the long term by focusing on whether hedge funds through their activities facilitate a change to firms CAPEX reallocation between divisions. Using a measure Guedj, Huang and Sulaeman (2009) call Deviation from Lagged Capital allocation (DLC) and defined as a deviation in fractional capital allocation across business segments relative to a passive benchmark our research looked to see whether companies targeted by hedge fund activism in 2007 did in deed re-allocate more capital between divisions than companies not targeted by hedge funds in the same period. When looking at a sample of 31 targeted firms and some 95 peers our DLC measures showed that the targeted firms re-allocated less capital than their non-
targeted peers for each of the years 2007 through to an including 2011. This was particularly statistically significant at the 1% level for the years 2008 through 2010 during which time the target firms re-allocated on average 9-10% less across divisions (Table 2).
Table 2. Furthermore we went on to divide the target companies and peers into active, neutral and passive groups by dividing average DLC for each company and sorting into the three groups mentioned above with the highest third of DLC coming into the active group etc. (Table 3.)40. This data shows slightly better CFROI performance from targets, but worse returns although these differences were not statistically significant when using a Welch t-test. Thereby, we can neither confirm nor deny Guedj, Huang and Sulaeman (2009) argument that higher allocation leads to lower returns.
Table
3.
(The
data
was
divided
into
1/3
active,
neutral
and
passive
as
defined
by
average
DLC
over
2007-2011.
The
highest
being
the
most
active
CFROI
changes.
CFROI
Change
is
calculated
as
CFROI
2011-
CFROI
2007.
Capex/07
shows
the
sum
of
Firm
Capex
made
2008-2011
divided
by
2007
Firm
Capex.
Hence
using
2007
Capex
as
a
base
year,
above
4
shows
Capex
increased
on
average,
and
vice
versa.)
40
The
concept
for
table
two
came
from
Guedj,
Huang
and
Sulaeman
(2009)
6.2 Relationship between DLC and CFROI For the second part of our investigation we were looking to analyze the relationship between hedge fund activists reallocation of CAPEX and its effect on CFROI. When investigating the relationship between DLC and CFROI using pooled ordinary least square regressions with a one, two and three year lagged DLC our findings imply that every $ that the target company reallocated resulted in lower CFROI improvements for each of the three individual years following the reallocation in comparison to peers (Table 4.). However, the differences were statistically insignificant for all but the first year after reallocation. What is clear is, that we have not shown an improvement in CFROI as a result of hedge fund CAPEX reallocation, seemingly adding an argument to the claim that hedge fund interventions do not create any additional long-term value. We cannot however go on to claim that they destroy long-term value due to the statistical insignificance of our findings.
Table 4. Our findings further show that the target sample has lower average and median annual improvements to CFROI than peers for all but one of the individual years, as well as throughout the entire period lasting 2007 to 2011 (Table 5.). This would go against the findings of Clifford (2007), Brav et al., (2008) and Brav, Jiang and Kim (2011) all showing some slight improvements to operating performance in the years following intervention in comparison to peers.
Table 5.
In Brav et al, (2008) they find the average holding period for hedge fund activists to be 22 months after using form 13F holdings data from Thomson Financial. For our sample that would imply that the hedge funds were becoming active in the companies in 2007 and exiting late 2008 to late 2009. This overlaps with the period of credit crisis in which share prices saw their low points41. When looking at market conditions during these years and the amount of M&A activity in the US42 we note that M&A activity was consistently going down throughout the period starting in Q2 2007, hitting a low in Q2 2009 and only starting to recover slightly in Q3 2009 both in terms of number of deals and the value of the completed transactions. This may in turn give support to Greenwood and Schors (2009) claim that the outperformance that hedge funds generate depends on their success at getting target firms taken over. During this period that would have proven significantly harder, as reflected in a total lack of relative improvement in CFROI. 6.3 Relationship between DLC and Returns. When analyzing the relationship between DLC and Returns the same lag effect was added to returns as to the CFROI regression in order to see if changes to internal capital allocation may have been discounted in the share price prior to the actual effect on the CFROI. Again, we found very little evidence to support any statistically significant increase in returns as a result of changes to DLC. However there were slight signs of the target group starting to perform better than peers as a result of DLC changes two and three years after the actual change had been implemented (Table 6.).
41
Source:
Bloomberg
42
Chart
1
and
2
in
the
appendix.
Table 6. Furthermore when looking at annual returns (Table 7.) we see that the average year on year returns were worse for target firms in 2007 and 2008 both in terms of averages and medians. However in 2009 target firms showed a stronger average annual return of 128.69% versus the peers 60.81% and a median annual return of 65.52% for target companies and 39.70% for peers. Targeted firms also performed better in 2010 than peers on an average basis. This would likely have occurred as a result of the characteristics of the firms in which hedge funds were active at the time and the extreme market conditions during the period.
Table
7.
6.4
Target
Characteristics
As
can
be
seen
in
chart
3
in
the
appendix,
our
targets
have
lower
average
market
capitalization
than
the
peers
and
their
market
capitalization
has
a
significant
skew
towards
smaller
companies
as
shown
by
the
medians.
It
also
has
a
lower
average
dividend
yield
with
the
same
skew
as
noted
by
the
median
company,
which
pays
no
dividend.
Finally,
the
target
group
displays
a
value
bias
as
shown
by
significantly
lower
price
to
book
ratio.
The
above
three
factors,
as
exhibited
by
our
target
sample
relative
to
peers,
go
far
in
explaining
why
our
target
sample
group
had
such
poor
returns
in
2008
and
2011,
while
recovering
in
2009.
Running
up
to
the
credit
crisis
of
2007,
stock
volatility
and
correlations
were
unusually
low43,
which
would
have
created
a
beneficial
environment
for
stock
picking.
That
environment
abruptly
changed
with
the
start
of
the
credit
crisis
towards
the
autumn
of
2007.
This
resulted
in
correlations
and
volatility
reaching
levels
not
seen
since
the
1930s44,
a
similar
spike
in
volatility
and
correlations
was
once
again
witnessed
in
2011.
$8
trillion
of
U.S.
stock
market
wealth
was
lost
between
October
2007,
when
the
stock
market
reached
an
all
time
high,
and
October
2008
alone.
Company
specific
risk
would
have
played
a
smaller
role
in
these
extreme
types
of
markets
than
systematic
risk,
leaving
our
target
peer
group
much
more
exposed
to
share
price
pressure,
given
their
company
characteristics.
6.5
Limitations
There
can
be
no
doubt
that
the
most
influential
limitations
to
our
research
result
from
lack
of
segment
data,
as
provided
by
Compustat
and
other
similar
databases.
As
a
result
we
were
not
able
to
substantiate
our
argument
by
using
further
data
such
as
segment
sales,
operating
margins
and
assets,
for
these
were
not
available
for
enough
companies
within
our
target
sample
group.
In
order
to
see
if
such
data
would
show
significantly
different
result
from
those
that
we
found,
we
used
the
Columbia
Schedule
13D
data
going
back
to
2001,
matching
these
cases
against
the
Credit
Suisse
HOLT
database.
We
matched
51
cases
with
divisional
data
(be
it
not
divisional
CAPEX
data).
In
order
to
analyse
these
cases
we
also
produced
a
random
peer
set
of
companies
with
divisional
data
matching
the
data
with
the
year
of
activist
engagement.
We
used
the
divisional
data
and
looked
at
operating
margin,
return
on
assets,
asset
turns,
capex/sales
and
for
the
parent
company
cash/assets
and
CFROI.
The
table
below
shows
the
medians
from
the
data
on
the
51
activist
cases
and
the
51matched
random
sample
of
peers.
43
Source:
Bloomberg
44
Brunnermeier,
2008
From
this
it
can
be
seen
that
the
activist
targets
have
higher
margins,
lower
turns
and
higher
return
on
assets
at
the
segment
level.
However,
at
the
consolidated
parent
level
the
activist
firms
have
lower
CFROI,
hence
showing
no
improvement
to
the
firm.
There
appears
to
be
little
difference
in
cash
held
on
the
balance
sheet
between
the
two
groups
that
would
distort
the
CFROI
analysis.
There
does
appear
to
be
some
evidence
that
the
two-year
change
in
divisional
Return
on
Assets
is
stronger
for
the
activist
group
but
this
does
not
show
up
in
CFROI
improvements.
Therefore,
it
is
difficult
to
draw
any
conclusions
from
this
data.
Further
work
in
this
area
would
be
beneficial,
including
statistical
significance
tests.
An
additional
limitation
is
the
lack
of
segment
data
pre-dating
2006.
For
our
research
this
meant
that
we
could
not
look
at
CAPEX
patterns
of
the
target
firm
pre
hedge
fund
engagement.
7.
CONCLUSION
We
aimed
to
add
to
the
debate
as
to
whether
hedge
fund
event
driven
activist- style
of
investing
creates
value
in
the
long
term
by
firstly
looking
at
whether
hedge
funds
through
their
activities
facilitate
a
change
to
firms
CAPEX
reallocation
between
divisions,
and
secondly
at
what
this
does
to
returns
and
CFROI.
By
doing
so
we
were
not
simply
looking
at
accounting-based
measures
of
operational
efficiency,
but
analyzing
the
efficiency
of
capital
allocation.
Our findings showed a lack of improvement in CFROI as a result of hedge fund CAPEX reallocation, thereby adding an argument to the claim that hedge fund interventions do not create any additional long-term value. However, when looking at the case samples it is clear that not all activists have the same modus operandi nor objectives. As such it would be interesting to see future research looking at these differences when analyzing improved allocation efficiency.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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9. APPENDIX
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