Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
22 April 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Over Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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22 April 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
22 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
380.20
270.90
397.30
Neutral
Buy
539
0.66
CHEMRING GROUP
257.70
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
321
0.66
COBHAM
239.70
190.10
248.10
Neutral
Buy
282
0.83
MEGGITT
475.90
364.30
494.20
Neutral
Sell
403
1.32
1123.00
788.92
1135.00
Neutral
Neutral
1079
1.08
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
Target
Beta
SMITHS GROUP
1229.00
979.50
1328.00
Neutral
Sell
1029
0.71
1591.00
1424.00
1745.00
Neutral
Neutral
1520
0.50
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
256.20
173.60
285.00
Neutral
Neutral
Target
247
2.00
INCHCAPE
498.00
305.20
530.00
Neutral
Neutral
485
1.48
LOOKERS
93.00
56.50
100.50
Neutral
Neutral
102
1.24
PENDRAGON
22.00
13.25
25.00
Neutral
Buy
32
1.12
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BARCLAYS
286.35
150.55
327.35
Neutral
Sell
Target
-814
Beta
1.93
679.20
503.20
740.00
Neutral
Buy
932
1.17
47.49
25.29
55.68
Sell
Sell
1.87
280.50
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-187
1.34
STANDARD CHARTERED
1598.00
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3190
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
540.50
348.00
572.00
Neutral
Neutral
580
0.55
DIAGEO
1975.00
1477.00
2085.00
Neutral
Sell
1746
0.55
SABMILLER
3382.50
2348.50
3552.50
Neutral
Buy
3883
0.95
BARR (AG)
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
287.90
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
620
CARCLO
374.00
345.75
503.00
Neutral
Neutral
368
0.74
2548.00
2094.00
2841.00
Neutral
Sell
2064
1.04
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
Target
Beta
#NA
247.50
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
336
1.00
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2389.00
2080.27
2573.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
10987
1.44
VICTREX
ELEMENTIS
1523.00
1185.00
1736.00
Neutral
Sell
1416
1.13
SYNTHOMER
177.40
127.40
238.60
Neutral
Buy
204
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
222.50
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
357
0.99
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
86.00
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
232
Beta
0.52
BALFOUR BEATTY
246.60
225.70
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
955
0.79
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
298.50
114.00
298.50
Sell
Buy
438
1.50
BELLWAY
1309.00
660.00
1327.00
Neutral
Buy
1843
1.10
2066.00
1177.00
2093.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3123
0.63
BOOT (HENRY)
177.00
115.50
177.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
331
0.83
739.50
399.30
751.00
Neutral
Sell
542
1.14
CARILLION
279.10
235.50
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
788
1.10
CLARKE (T)
53.50
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
261
0.82
284.00
188.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
541
0.56
1318.00
1052.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
788
1.14
940.00
579.00
965.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1658
0.99
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER
822.00
348.25
848.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1993
1.25
1256.00
1106.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3264
0.94
68.50
49.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
201
1.07
MARSHALLS
128.25
76.00
130.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
277
1.37
575.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3249
0.86
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
NORCROS
16.00
9.25
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
33
1.11
1130.00
532.00
1132.00
Neutral
Buy
1390
1.15
REDROW
197.80
107.30
206.00
Neutral
Buy
279
1.05
SIG
146.40
82.30
162.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
466
1.74
5.88
3.88
17.75
Sell
Strong Buy
47
0.89
90.15
40.28
93.50
Neutral
Buy
128
1.58
PERSIMMON
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
1441.00
906.50
1465.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2510
1.97
WOLSELEY
3133.00
2121.32
3337.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5142
1.43
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1228.00
935.00
1364.00
Neutral
Sell
744
0.78
634.00
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
816
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
118.00
105.50
149.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
238
1.31
INVENSYS
347.30
186.10
366.80
Neutral
Neutral
333
1.42
LAIRD
198.00
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Sell
75
2.12
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1534.00
1096.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1138
1.01
RENISHAW
1551.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2297
1.26
SPECTRIS
1908.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2128
1.52
0.07
0.07
0.19
Neutral
Strong Buy
0.83
TT ELECTRONICS
157.00
114.00
190.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
391
1.59
XAAR
500.00
185.00
500.00
Neutral
Sell
225
1.11
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Target
Beta
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
78.00
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
101
1.26
BODYCOTE
474.10
310.30
556.50
Neutral
Neutral
490
1.61
CASTINGS
331.00
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
668
0.99
VESUVIUS
322.10
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
487
2.19
FENNER
354.50
329.30
450.80
Neutral
Buy
529
1.42
HALMA
473.50
373.10
531.50
Neutral
Sell
375
0.76
429.50
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
321
1.37
1174.00
776.00
1347.00
Neutral
Buy
1292
1.40
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARCO
Target
Beta
247.50
220.30
332.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
510
1.82
2680.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
2042
0.99
241.40
177.00
253.10
Neutral
Sell
202
1.65
41.00
35.40
104.11
Neutral
Sell
30
0.73
2505.00
1900.00
2734.00
Neutral
Sell
2169
0.84
VITEC GROUP
637.00
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Sell
578
1.40
WEIR GROUP
2131.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
1929
1.39
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
464.50
449.00
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
698
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
281.10
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Sell
198
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
377.80
283.50
387.20
Neutral
Sell
219
0.58
TESCO
363.00
297.05
387.75
Neutral
Sell
281
0.69
74.00
18.88
78.75
Neutral
Sell
52
0.84
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1847.00
1167.00
1931.00
Neutral
Buy
2074
0.61
CRANSWICK
1032.00
732.50
1057.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2051
0.49
DAIRY CREST
447.20
290.40
447.20
Neutral
Neutral
491
0.92
DEVRO
317.20
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
509
0.31
73.00
54.50
167.50
Neutral
Sell
-179
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
837.50
633.50
870.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1530
0.70
2776.00
2007.00
2831.00
Neutral
Neutral
2718
0.57
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22 April 2013
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
28.75
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
33
0.68
414.00
224.40
429.30
Neutral
Sell
354
0.53
1299.00
1000.00
1536.00
Neutral
Sell
967
1.27
627.00
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
275
0.94
35.29
12.67
35.45
Neutral
Buy
39
1.50
150.00
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
45
1.08
27.75
19.50
44.25
Sell
Strong Buy
101
0.99
HALFORDS GROUP
325.30
189.00
356.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
491
0.67
JD SPORTS FASHION
736.00
606.50
841.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1489
0.52
Target
Beta
48.00
38.00
65.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
87
1.24
KINGFISHER
288.20
254.10
304.00
Neutral
Buy
382
0.92
398.20
312.20
400.40
Neutral
Buy
506
0.64
57.50
42.00
71.00
Buy
Neutral
59
1.04
298.50
160.00
362.00
Neutral
Buy
369
0.47
NEXT
4320.00
2896.00
4408.00
Neutral
Sell
3677
0.66
TED BAKER
1285.00
830.00
1354.00
Neutral
Sell
645
0.55
68.75
32.13
68.75
Neutral
Sell
49
1.48
DARTY
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
146.50
124.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
117
0.45
CONSORT MEDICAL
785.00
584.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
576
0.40
OPTOS
161.00
145.75
264.00
Neutral
Neutral
168
1.20
720.00
580.00
768.50
Neutral
Sell
644
0.41
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
667.50
557.00
720.50
Neutral
Neutral
652
0.43
HEADLAM GROUP
344.00
263.00
355.00
Neutral
Sell
302
0.92
80.75
55.25
95.63
Neutral
Buy
106
0.75
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
872.50
469.00
971.50
Neutral
Sell
528
0.74
CSR
477.20
194.60
502.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1271
1.16
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
66.50
23.50
83.25
Neutral
Sell
46
0.90
431.30
383.50
696.00
Neutral
Buy
501
1.09
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
122.00
122.00
174.00
Buy
Strong Buy
653
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
194.00
165.75
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-543
0.91
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22 April 2013
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1331.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Neutral
1313
0.54
AMLIN
411.90
312.90
431.50
Neutral
Sell
116
0.46
BEAZLEY
209.40
132.50
219.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1216
0.59
CATLIN GROUP
509.00
399.00
540.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1838
0.29
HISCOX
544.50
379.26
574.05
Neutral
Strong Buy
2425
0.48
843.00
659.00
864.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1644
0.31
108.10
97.65
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
870
0.40
NOVAE GROUP
455.00
345.00
475.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
2756
0.47
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2294.00
1944.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3836
1.00
ENTERPRISE INNS
102.80
55.50
114.70
Neutral
Sell
95
1.59
TUI TRAVEL
303.80
158.00
330.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
760
0.99
810.00
700.00
820.00
Neutral
Sell
649
0.38
GREENE KING
666.50
474.30
723.50
Neutral
Sell
620
0.91
LADBROKES
188.00
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
245
0.93
1866.00
1396.63
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1444
1.17
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
560.00
455.40
582.50
Neutral
Buy
625
1.38
315.90
217.40
350.10
Neutral
Sell
300
1.09
136.00
91.90
158.40
Neutral
Sell
51
1.25
9.90
5.61
13.12
Neutral
Strong Buy
45
1.25
159.20
111.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
492
1.00
0.74
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
468.80
269.20
474.80
Neutral
Sell
314
WETHERSPOON (JD)
549.50
371.30
549.50
Neutral
Buy
717
0.69
WHITBREAD
2450.00
1786.00
2692.00
Neutral
Sell
1932
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
409.10
243.75
411.17
Neutral
Sell
248
0.86
MARSTON'S
136.00
94.40
143.00
Neutral
Sell
15
1.20
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
295.60
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
630
1.24
CHESNARA
227.00
155.25
250.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
357
0.70
168.90
106.00
175.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
317
1.70
OLD MUTUAL
199.80
138.70
211.40
Neutral
Sell
189
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1036.00
660.00
1155.00
Neutral
Sell
916
1.70
496.40
303.40
537.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1363
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
22 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
113.12
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-571
0.36
839.50
656.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1688
0.54
46.50
28.50
60.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
151
1.01
691.50
363.50
722.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3934
1.12
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
940.00
672.50
1001.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7427
0.98
INFORMA
482.50
340.00
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-74
1.53
ITE GROUP
259.70
180.00
289.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
232
1.44
ITV
123.20
69.45
132.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1224
1.54
1.26
CENTAUR MEDIA
JOHNSTON PRESS
15.50
4.88
16.00
Neutral
Buy
752
1120.00
1111.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
307
0.62
75.75
36.25
82.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2547
0.79
277.50
265.00
377.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
844
0.15
33.23
26.85
33.35
Neutral
Sell
-569
0.52
STV GROUP
133.50
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
258
0.78
ST.IVES
134.75
67.50
139.25
Neutral
Sell
216
1.49
92.00
25.50
121.25
Neutral
Sell
-252
1.57
UBM
670.00
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1699
1.31
WILMINGTON GROUP
152.00
82.00
164.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1313
0.85
WPP
1047.00
743.00
1092.00
Neutral
Sell
-493
1.34
HIBU
0.38
0.26
3.91
Neutral
Strong Buy
786
1.07
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
TRINITY MIRROR
Over Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1596.50
1553.00
2412.00
Neutral
Sell
1273
1.75
219.00
215.00
320.00
Neutral
Neutral
214
0.99
ANTOFAGASTA
902.50
889.50
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
771
1.43
1782.50
1681.00
2236.00
Neutral
Buy
2441
1.45
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
266.90
240.84
564.35
Neutral
Strong Buy
532
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
LONMIN
4664.00
4545.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2196
0.34
RIO TINTO
2920.00
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2717
1.51
5.63
3.75
22.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
147
0.89
832.50
1298.00
Neutral
Buy
1639
2.21
785.80
1205.00
Neutral
Sell
670
1.88
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
XSTRATA
957.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1038.00
1000.50
1451.00
Buy
Buy
1194
0.81
BP
446.70
391.95
475.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1497
1.05
CAIRN ENERGY
284.90
248.20
349.00
Neutral
Sell
-10
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
8.00
7.66
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
14
0.90
799.00
688.00
954.00
Buy
Sell
428
1.32
1.36
67.75
55.00
137.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
291
355.40
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Sell
275
1.45
2148.00
2039.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
9066
0.86
376.80
254.90
404.30
Neutral
Sell
240
0.52
1048.00
982.50
1557.00
Neutral
Sell
875
1.05
803.50
651.50
879.50
Neutral
Sell
763
1.36
www.intellisys.uk.com
22 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
109.00
102.70
146.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
251
PZ CUSSONS
390.50
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
318
0.69
4709.00
3300.00
4812.00
Neutral
Neutral
4752
0.36
Beta
0.83
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.41
0.37
3.88
Buy
Sell
-3
1.01
3346.00
2591.00
3346.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6791
0.47
BTG
344.50
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
157
0.62
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
749.00
444.50
780.00
Neutral
Sell
651
0.26
1652.00
1317.50
1658.00
Neutral
Buy
1925
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.63
1.55
4.28
Buy
Sell
-1
0.65
PHYTOPHARM
1.20
1.20
12.75
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
0.94
1967.00
1727.00
2153.00
Neutral
Sell
1394
0.65
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
45.25
44.25
101.50
Neutral
Sell
-114
0.71
VERNALIS
22.50
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Buy
29
0.90
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
389.10
274.50
393.00
Neutral
Sell
-571
1.15
BRITISH LAND
572.50
475.40
586.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1688
1.03
34.50
22.75
34.50
Sell
Strong Buy
151
0.82
880.00
595.00
880.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3934
0.69
DERWENT LONDON
2285.00
1708.00
2285.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7427
1.20
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
151.00
121.75
175.00
Neutral
Sell
-74
0.97
GRAINGER
137.30
83.10
140.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
232
1.54
523.00
345.60
523.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1224
1.06
1.16
HAMMERSON
514.00
408.00
525.00
Neutral
Buy
752
HELICAL BAR
248.25
164.00
251.00
Neutral
Buy
307
0.75
863.00
704.00
863.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2547
1.15
INTU PROPERTIES
343.60
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
844
1.08
MCKAY SECURITIES
142.00
127.00
145.00
Neutral
Sell
-569
0.72
380.00
320.00
390.00
Neutral
Sell
258
0.41
336.00
312.00
364.50
Neutral
Sell
216
0.35
65.00
32.50
70.00
Sell
Sell
-252
1.17
0.74
521.50
300.80
599.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1699
SHAFTESBURY
607.00
492.00
608.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1313
1.03
SEGRO
253.90
209.40
271.00
Neutral
Sell
-493
1.70
ST MODWEN PROPS.
264.40
145.50
280.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
786
1.55
205.00
147.00
215.00
Neutral
Sell
-15
1.05
UNITE GROUP
313.00
180.25
330.00
Neutral
Sell
44
1.75
1.38
1.00
2.75
Sell
Sell
-1113
1.01
373.40
213.25
374.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1274
1.02
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
www.intellisys.uk.com
22 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
117.00
111.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
119
0.76
2085.00
1469.00
2322.00
Neutral
Sell
1274
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
535.00
292.40
567.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1317
1.01
KOFAX
333.75
240.00
335.00
Neutral
Sell
314
1.12
25.25
18.25
25.50
Neutral
Sell
24
0.83
667.00
426.17
706.00
Neutral
Buy
932
0.79
PHOENIX IT GROUP
145.00
131.00
231.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
305
0.74
80.00
70.25
89.00
Neutral
Sell
-87
0.53
1776.00
1275.00
1970.00
Neutral
Buy
2021
0.77
340.60
247.70
352.10
Neutral
Buy
404
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
400.30
237.30
441.90
Neutral
Sell
131
BREWIN DOLPHIN
220.00
136.30
222.00
Neutral
Sell
108
0.72
10355.50
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Sell
8022
0.83
CAMELLIA
Target
Beta
1.08
401.50
247.50
404.00
Sell
Sell
179
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
173.00
132.00
190.00
Neutral
Sell
112
0.69
1026.00
673.50
1107.00
Neutral
Sell
150
0.87
95.55
65.90
110.40
Neutral
Neutral
96
0.89
3.17
0.55
3.70
Sell
Strong Buy
24
0.68
HENDERSON GROUP
155.40
90.55
171.00
Neutral
Sell
55
1.44
ICAP
286.20
281.40
384.00
Neutral
Sell
201
1.07
1.68
HELPHIRE GROUP
403.80
227.30
427.60
Neutral
Sell
158
INVESTEC
439.90
310.40
513.50
Neutral
Sell
72
1.55
1296.00
930.00
1411.00
Neutral
Neutral
1380
1.12
106.70
63.25
111.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
479
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
MAN GROUP
1478.00
1151.00
1551.00
Neutral
Sell
1048
0.73
SCHRODERS
2155.00
1166.00
2212.00
Neutral
Sell
1095
1.31
SCHRODERS NV
1721.00
966.00
1785.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3608
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
22 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
218.00
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Buy
286
0.93
1769.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Sell
1272
1.03
AGGREKO
Target
Beta
AMEC
999.50
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Buy
1106
1.04
ASHTEAD GROUP
610.00
212.20
635.00
Neutral
Sell
311
1.62
1040.00
793.50
1106.00
Neutral
Sell
647
0.48
535.00
317.00
539.00
Neutral
Buy
779
0.78
1256.00
990.00
1320.00
Neutral
Sell
958
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
444.00
214.00
445.00
Neutral
Neutral
433
0.38
CAPITA
853.00
602.00
913.50
Neutral
Sell
508
0.50
51.88
25.34
53.50
Neutral
Buy
66
0.78
COMPASS GROUP
824.00
616.00
852.50
Neutral
Sell
590
0.74
BERENDSEN
754.00
462.00
812.00
Neutral
Buy
959
1.04
DE LA RUE
922.50
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Sell
590
#NA
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
DIGNITY
1359.00
803.50
1435.00
Neutral
Sell
776
0.21
DIPLOMA
556.00
417.00
627.50
Neutral
Sell
476
0.95
ELECTROCOMP.
229.30
195.20
265.00
Neutral
Buy
313
1.02
FILTRONA
715.00
428.00
744.00
Neutral
Sell
339
1.10
G4S
301.90
240.00
307.50
Neutral
Sell
284
0.58
90.85
66.40
101.20
Neutral
Buy
118
1.09
HOMESERVE
191.90
137.50
252.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
479
0.93
INTERSERVE
462.50
271.40
510.50
Neutral
Buy
668
1.27
3349.00
2406.00
3451.00
Neutral
Sell
1413
0.77
43.50
26.50
45.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
92
1.18
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
32.00
21.25
39.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
54
0.72
MENZIES (JOHN)
672.00
542.00
789.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1257
1.43
356.00
341.40
451.80
Neutral
Sell
311
1.41
MITIE GROUP
270.80
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Buy
334
0.55
92.00
91.00
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
233
0.34
PAYPOINT
881.00
605.00
912.50
Neutral
Sell
676
0.70
PREMIER FARNELL
204.70
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Buy
277
1.32
REGUS
159.90
82.65
169.00
Neutral
Sell
105
1.44
94.40
69.40
100.70
Neutral
Sell
54
1.24
513.00
394.28
547.50
Neutral
Neutral
519
0.91
HAYS
INTERTEK GROUP
OFFICE2OFFICE
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RICARDO
409.00
304.50
431.00
Neutral
Buy
461
0.85
ROBERT WALTERS
232.00
176.25
259.50
Neutral
Buy
302
1.23
RPC GROUP
393.00
348.30
477.00
Neutral
Buy
522
0.77
RPS GROUP
250.40
197.00
274.20
Neutral
Neutral
242
1.50
SERCO GROUP
606.50
509.50
635.50
Neutral
Sell
564
0.59
SHANKS GROUP
74.50
74.50
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
164
1.46
SPEEDY HIRE
47.50
22.25
50.00
Neutral
Neutral
51
1.25
145.00
73.25
149.00
Neutral
Sell
49
0.56
53.38
39.50
59.00
Neutral
Buy
60
0.92
337.00
234.75
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
609
0.86
74.50
42.00
75.00
Sell
Strong Buy
178
0.79
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
www.intellisys.uk.com
22 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
277.60
200.70
281.70
Neutral
Buy
334
41.58
27.28
42.81
Neutral
Strong Buy
82
0.69
689.00
390.80
710.50
Neutral
Sell
592
0.53
Beta
0.90
81.85
67.00
85.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
130
1.24
1197.00
682.50
1197.00
Sell
Sell
732
0.11
193.25
154.45
193.25
Neutral
Sell
167
0.54
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
248.20
178.00
269.00
Neutral
Sell
178
390.00
309.50
425.00
Neutral
Buy
459
0.99
CLARKSON
1660.00
1150.00
1660.00
Sell
Sell
1490
0.81
EASYJET
1109.00
481.20
1149.00
Neutral
Sell
677
0.74
211.30
175.70
260.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
565
0.90
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1108.00
535.00
1108.00
Neutral
Sell
399
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1519.00
1086.00
1540.00
Neutral
Buy
1871
0.89
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
1.30
NATIONAL EXPRESS
197.70
164.50
230.50
Neutral
Buy
254
1.34
NORTHGATE
313.25
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
621
1.41
STAGECOACH GROUP
296.80
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
358
0.90
57.25
31.00
78.50
Sell
Sell
-42
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
382.50
306.30
383.00
Neutral
Buy
506
0.46
NATIONAL GRID
795.50
641.00
803.00
Neutral
Buy
877
0.49
PENNON GROUP
655.50
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
813
0.58
SSE
1532.00
1294.00
1536.00
Neutral
Buy
1810
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
1795.00
1513.00
1796.00
Neutral
Sell
1583
0.34
742.50
614.50
747.50
Neutral
Sell
701
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
22 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
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may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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