WHAT IS AN AXIAL SHIFT?

19 02 2013

Whenever a Turkish official mentions the African market or the importance of Latin America, or talks about cooperating with accumulated capital in the Gulf countries, the charge of axial shift is immediately brought forward. Is this assumption of an axial shift the expression of a sincere concern? Or is there something else that is the case behind the scenes of this accusation and in the mindset of those who voice it? From the same perspective, when European Union countries try to develop trade relations with Cuba, they become supporters of Castor. Or if they develop economic ties with Venezuela, they are on the same axis as Chavez and they become Bolivarists. Does no one carry out trade with Russia? Does the axial shift apply to those who trade with Russia? What is their axial shift towards? The Czardom, Stalin, Brezhnev, Gorbachov or Putin? Those who trade with China must have it worst. perhaps they are secretly Chinese. Perhaps the fact that they trade with China shows that they will become Buddhists. If the trade volume with countries like Qatar or Saudi Arabia is increasing a great axial shift must be the case. Does it apply to those who sell Leopard tanks to the Saudis? If it does not, then we have to talk of double standards. Those who call every foreign trade move Turkey makes an axial shift probably oppose the very possibility of double standards. We are experiencing one of the greatest waves of globalisation in history. Customs walls are being lowered around the world. Borders are becoming increasingly transparent. Capital circulates with increased freedom. The same applies to goods and services and to labour. People around the world are connected to each other with fibre-optic cables and satellite signals. The time when countries were separated from each other with tall thick walls is now in the past. There is no longer an iron curtain. It is the age o liberalism. Neo-liberalism at that. If freedom is the order of the day, if free trade is a principle, if it is very important that capital, trade, exports and imports move freely, why is it that whenever Turley tries to expand its trade, it is accused of an axial shift? This complicated reaction interlaced with double standards and orientalism is difficult to see as well intentioned or sincere. Perhaps if Turkey did not carry out any trade at all, no one would accuse it of an axial shift. But since this is not a solution, the real solution may lie in a true appraisal of the values and facts of the age. In order to solve this problem one needs to give up the habit of putting ethnic identity in the centre of things, historical traumas on top of that, religious prejudices a stage above and ideological reflexes on top ,n order to see whose tower is taller. These accusations are critical. They not only affect the target country but also third countries. They will see themselves as the object of suspicion. They may conclude that they are being viewed through the prejudices of a secret agenda. Therefore one has to accept that the only possible axis everyone is situated along is compliance with the law. otherwise, one needs to stay away from all types of discrimination and not alienate any country, religion, language or culture.

EKSEN KAYMASI NEDR?

13 02 2013

Ne zaman bir Trk yetkilisi Afrika pazarndan sz etse veya Latin Amerikann nemine deinse, hatta Krfez lkelerindeki ser maye birikimi ile ibirliini gndeme getirse, hemen devamnda eksen kaymas sulamas geliyor. Acaba bu eksen kaymas sulamas, sadece samimi bir kaygnn davurumu olarak grlmeli mi? Yoksa bu sulamann perde arkasnda veyahut sulayanlarn bilinaltnda baka bir ey var mdr? Ayn aklla baknca, Avrupa Birlii yesi lkeler Kba ile ticari ilikilerini gelitirmek isteyince Castrocu oluyor Hatta Venezella ile ekonomik ilikilerini glendirmek isterlerse, Chavezin izgisine kaym olacaklar. Yani Bolivarist! Pekl, Rusya ile ticaret ne demeli? Kimse yapmyor mu? Rusya ile ticaret yapanlar da eksen kaymas var m? Onlarda eksen kaymas neye gre, kime gre? arlk, Stalin, Brejnev, Gorbaov veya Putin? En zoru in ile ticaret yapanlar iin olmal. Belki de onlar da gizli inlidir Veya in ile ticaret yapmalar Budist olacaklarnn emaresidir Hatta Katar ve Suudi Arabistan gibi lkelerle ticaret hacmini artryorsa, o halde byk eksen kaymasndan sz etmek gerekir! Suudilere Leopard tank satanlarda byle bir eksen kaymas var mdr? Yoksa bir ifte standardn varln kabul etmi oluruz. Herhalde en byk olaslkla Trkiyenin her d ticaret hamlesinde eksen kaymas diye ayaa kalkanlar, bir ifte standardn varl ihtimaline de iddetle kar karlar

Dnyada kreselleenin btn tarihteki en byk dalgalarndan birisini yaadmz dnemdeyiz. Btn dnyada gmrk duvarlar alalyor. Snrlar giderek daha effaf hale geliyor. Sermayenin serbest dolam hzla yaylyor. Bu durum mal ve hizmetler iin de, em ek iin de byk lde geerli. Btn dnyada hemen herkes birbirine fiber optik kablolarla, uydularla ve sinyallerle bal lkelerin birbirinden kaln ve yksek duvarlarla ayrld zamanlar gemite kald. Artk demir perde de yok. Madem artk liberalizm var Hem de neoliberalizm Madem ki bu devirde artk serbestlik esas Serbest ticaret temel ilke hem de Hatta sermayenin, ticaretin, ekonominin, ihracatn, ithalatn, hepsinin snrszca, sorunsuzca yaplmas ok nemli O halde neden Trkiye ticaret yaptnda, bunun ad derhal eksen kaymas oluyor? ifte standartla, belki de biraz oryantali zmle kark, aslnda ok da karmak bu tepkiyi iyi niyetli bulmak, samimi bir reaksiyon olduunu dnmek bir hayli zor. Belki de Trkiye hi t icaret yapmasa, kimse de Trkiyeyi eksen kaymas ile sulamaz. Ama elbette bu da are deil. Belki de are an deerlerini, dnemin gerekleri iyi ve doru kavramakla ilgili olabilir. Bu sorunu zmek iin etnik kimlii merkeze, tarihi travmalar onun zerine, dini nyarglar onu n zerine ve ideolojik artlanmlklar da onun zerine koyup, onun zerine kp boy lmekten vazgemek lazm. Bu tr sulamalar kritiktir. Sadece hedef alnan lkeyi etkilemez. nc lkeleri de etkiler. Onlar da kendilerine pheyle bakld kanaatine varrlar. O lkeler de kendilerine kar nyargyla ve muhtemelen gizli bir gndemle bakld kanaatine varabilirler. Bu sebepten dolay, tek eksenin hukuka uygunluk olduunu kabul etmek gerekir. Bunun dnda her trl ayrmclktan uzak durmak gerekir. Hibir ekil de hibir lkeyi, dini, dili ve kltr tekiletirmemek gerekir.

A NEW GEAR ON THE BRUSSELS-ANKARA LINE

19 02 2013

A new period needs to start in relations between the European Union and Turkey Let us begin with a question: what should the relations between Turkey and the European Union be like? Let us answer it post haste: they should not be like they are now. A new step is needed, either backwards or forwards. The political and economic situation in the European Union and Turkey is clear to see. Realistically one needs to accept that there cannot be agreement between Brussels and Ankara on every issue. Although the relations between Ankara and Brussels are generally shaped by speculation in national and local electoral campaigning in leading countries of the European Union, it is still possible for the sides to build a climate of mutual trust. But first the parties need to meet on common ground. There needs to be a negotiating table on which the sides can bring their perspective of each other and expectations of the future. There is need for a series of negotiations between Ankara and Brussels during which every option is in the cards. Taking their place around the negotiating table, the sides should leave aside differences and focus on shared interests. The parties should be focused on developing mutual interests through cooperation. The European Union may exhibit the performance that has been lacking due to the debt crisis and the periodic circumstances with a real effort over Turkey. Turkey and the European Union have to preserve the strong bonds of their relationship in the face of rapidly changing periodic circumstances, transforming regional structures and developing processes. The pessimism in Turkey over the European Unions failure to meet its promises and the low tempo membership talks needs to be overcome. Ankara and Brussels need to evaluate the opportunities together and to display political will on what can be done. The present situation in Turkey- European Union relations is not promising. The sides have repeated the same mistakes in the past. They emphasised disagreements and different perspectives instead of fields of cooperation and common facts. This deliberate error has provoked conflict and made it chronic. A new style as well as a new negotiating table is needed to cover ground in Turkey- European Union relations. The new style has to stay clear of imposing on sides. The sides need to learn to understand each other through this new style and language. The sides should be able to stand in the others shoes through the new language when need be. If a correct communications strategy is identified and implemented together, relations between Turkey and the European Union may become noted for their positive character. To this end one needs to learn from the past. One needs to prepare for the future with such lessons in mind. Although the future of relations between Turkey and the European Union may be membership, privileged partnership or something else, they have to be run now with stately gravity, diplomatic tradition and basic civility. An immunity system needs to be set up for the future of relations. For example, if against all hope someone like Nicolas Sarkozy is elected in an European Union member state, how will relations between Turkey and the European Union be protected. What if a term president such as Greece and Southern Cyprus want to abuse their position against Turkey as has happened in the past, how will this be prevented? How will the damage to relations from the irresponsible use of relations between Turkey and the European Union as electoral propaganda during an election in the European Union be stopped? There is nothing difficult about these issues. The sides need to agree on some fundamentals and publish a joint declaration. If mutual confidence is secured and faith in joint principles is restored, there might be beneficial results in every field as part of a win-win formula, with the possibility of full membership not excluded.

BRKSEL-ANKARA HATTINDA YEN VTES HTYACI

13 02 2013

Avrupa Birlii-Trkiye ilikilerinde yeni bir dnemin balamas gerekiyor Bir soru ile balamak lazm, Trkiye ile Avrupa Birlii arasndaki ilikiler nasl olmal? Hemen sca scana refleksif bir cevapla devam etmek lazm, byle olmamal Yeni bir adm atmak gerekiyor; Ya ileri ya da geri Avrupa Birliinin de Trkiyenin de siyasi ve iktisadi verileri ortada. Gereki bir bak as ile ve soukkanllkla deerlendirince, u gerei kabul etmek lazm. Ankara ve Brksel her konuda tam mutabakat salayamayabilir. Her ne kadar Ankara -Brksel ilikileri ounlukla Avrupa Birliinin lider lkelerinde yaplan genel ve yerel seimlerdeki speklasyonlarn glgesinde biimlense de, yine de taraflar arasnda karlkl gven iklimi kurulmas hala mmkn. Ama ncelikle taraflarn yeni bir zeminde bulumas gerekiyor. nk taraflarn gelecee ynelik bak asn ve birbirinden beklentisini somut biimde ortaya koyabilecei bir grme masasnn kurulmas lazm. Ankara ve Brksel iin her trl seenein masada tutulduu bir grme trafiine ihtiya var. Taraflar masaya otururken, gr ayrlklarn bir kenara brakp, ncelikle ortak noktalarna younlamallar. Taraflar ortak karlarn karlkl biimde, ibirlii sayesinde gelitirilmesine younlamal. Avrupa Birlii yaanan ar borlar krizi nedeniyle ve bilhassa dnemsel artlar dolaysyla ihtiya duyduu performans, ortaya koymaya alt eforu Trkiye konusunda ataca admla salayabilir. Bunun yan sra ok hzl biimde deien artlar, dnen blgeler yaplar ve gelien sreler nedeniyle Trkiye ve Avrupa Birlii muhakkak ilikilerin kuvvetli balarn muhafaza etmeliler. Ama Trkiyede Avrupa Birliinin verdii szleri tutmamas ve zellikle temposu drlen katlm mzakerelerinde ilerleme salanamamas yznden ba gsteren umutsuzluun almas lazm. Ankarann ve Brkselin frsatlar beraberce deerlendirmesi ve bunu yapabilecei ynnde siyasi iradeyi ortaya somut biimde koyabilmesi gerekiyor. Trkiye- Avrupa Birlii ilikilerinde gelinen nokta mevcut durumu ile kesinlikle umut vaat etmiyor. nk taraflar sre boyunca srekli ayn hatalar tekrarladlar; Uzlaabilecekleri sahalar, ortak olabilecekleri olgular deil, anlaamadklar ve paylaamadklar fikirlerini vurguladlar. Bu kastl hata, atmacl kkrtt ve kritik derecede artan kronik hali pekitirdi. Hlbuki Trkiye- Avrupa Birlii ilikilerinde gelime ve ilerleme salamak iin yeni bir masann yan sra yeni bir slup da gerekiyor. Yeni slup ve bunun iin kullanlacak yeni dil, dayatmaclktan uzak olmak zorunda. Ayn ekilde, taraflar bu slup ve dil sayesinde birbirini anlamay nemsemek zorunda. Hatta taraflar yeri geldiinde bu dil sayesinde kendisini karsndakinin yerine koyabilmeli. ayet doru bir iletiim stratejisi belirlenip, beraberce uygulanrsa, Trkiye- Avrupa Birlii ilikileri olumlu yaps ve retkenlii ile anlacak hale gelebilir. Ama bunun iin gemiten ders karmak gerekiyor. Bunun iin gelecee bu derslerle hazrlkl olmak gerekiyor. Trkiye - Avrupa Birlii ilikilerinin gelecei tam yelik, imtiyazl ortaklk veya baka bir ey olacak olsa da, devlet ciddiyeti, diplomatik teamller ve temel dzeyde nezaket ile yrtlmek zorunda. Her durumda taraflarn ilikilerinin gelecei iin baklk sistemi kurmas lazm. rnein bir daha Avrupa Birlii yesi lkelerden birisinde -kimse umut etmez, ama yine de bir olaslktr - Nicolas Sarkozy gibi birisi seilirse, bundan Trkiye- Avrupa Birlii ilikileri nasl korunacak? Veya Yunanistan ve Gney Kbrs gibi bir ynetim dnem bakan olduunda -her defasndan olduu gibi bir kez daha - bunu Trkiye konusunda istismar etmeye kalkarsa, bu durum nasl nlenecek? Hatta bir Birlik yesinde yerel veya genel seimlerde Trkiye - Avrupa Birlii ilikileri ftursuzca seimlerin propaganda malzemesi halinde getirildiinde, bu sorumsuzluun taraflar arasndaki ilikilere zarar vermesi nasl nlenecek? Aslnda bunun zor bir yn de yok Sadece taraflar arasnda birtakm temel ilkelerde uzlama ve ortak bir deklarasyon gerekiyor. ayet karlkl gven salanrsa, taraflarn srece sadakati ve ortak ilkelere inanc temin edilirse tam yelik bata olmak zere, her trl sonucun kazan-kazan forml erevesinde olumlu sonular dourmas salanabilir.

A NEW DAWN IN TURKISH-GREEK RELATIONS

20 03 2013

Is there a new ray of hope over the Aegean? A new period in Turkish-Greek relations is beginning. The recent high level strategic council meeting held in Istanbul was a sign of change. Ankara and Athens have taken up various issues ranging from energy and tourism to telecommunications. Contact at the ministerial level on various issues between the two countries has been increased. The foreign ministries of both countries are intensifying efforts. For the younger generations to have confidence in the future regarding Turkish-Greek relations new steps need to be taken. New steps can only be taken when new targets are set. Only for a new target and through a new method can one take innovative steps. Otherwise the relations can do no more than spin the wheel in the air like a vehicle stuck in the show, however strong the will to improve may be; money, time and energy will have been wasted. Turkey and Greece must move away from this error as soon as possible. Turkey and Greece, both NATO members, share many common points and interests due to the alliance they both participate in, the camp to which they belong and the international agreements and contracts to which they are party. It is therefore possible for Ankara and Athens to take

comprehensive steps towards the future. The development of a climate of cooperation may ensure steps to be taken over bilateral, regional and international issues. That the two countries should act together to solve their problems is not only to their benefit, but also to the benefit of the countries of the region. In the year 2013, the two countries which share the Aegean coastline ought to act facing the future and not the past. In other words they must aim to found a joint future. They must try to start a climate of defending common interests and developing shared advantages. By making a joint declaration of the fundamental principles they share, the ides should make this the corner stone of bilateral ties. Thus both Ankara and Athens will have contributed to the institutionalisation of bilateral ties. In other words, the development and the future of bilateral ties will not depend on possible changes of government and will be immune to internal political developments. No new and artificial crises should darken the future of relations between Ankara and Athens. The necessary mechanisms to prevent them must be developed. No one should put trust in the comfort of constant and uninterrupted dialogue. Turkish-Greek relations should be formed over common general principles and supported with multi-dimensional action plans. Both countries need to change their mentality regarding the present bilateral political ties. Historical traumata should be pushed aside, religious and national prejudices and obsessions should be abandoned and bold steps need to be taken for the welfare and happiness of both peoples. Of course Ankara and Athens cannot be expected to see eye to eye over every issue. Instead the two states should seek the development of those issues on which they are already agreed. An appropriate example is that instead of arguing over who has the best claim to the dish dolma which is to be found in both cuisines, one should seek to see how this sort of shared culinary experience can contribute to the welfare and happiness of Turkish and Greek peoples. Therefore one should have a look at the world market for dolma. Perhaps this example may draw a smile but it is possible to apply the same principle to many sectors including agriculture, energy, transportation and more. It is time that Turkish-Greek relations are raised above petty contests the interests of the two countries should not be abandoned to political demagogy any longer. One should not see a strain on elections during every local and general election. Turkey and Greece should act with reason and not out of national and religious enmity. The synergy created should be used towards attaining realistic and beneficial goals. It is not possible to build Turkish-Greek relations over the continuation or the resolution of points of conflict such as the continental shelf in the Aegean. Had this been possible, it would have been achieved in past decades. International law can decide on who is right in issues like this and which method of solution should be implemented. But the sides should prioritise the development of common interests and the production of shared values. It should be underlined that the top priority should be overcoming prejudice, preconceptions and preconditions. If the sides act in good faith every problem will be solved and a new and prosperous period will begin. The sides have many experiences which can be shared. Turkey has experienced numerous economic crisis. Turkey has experience in living with a crisis and in managing crisis circumstances. Today Turkey may be the relatively better off party. But that Greece, an important country in its region should be in chronic crisis has risks of which Turkey is aware. Therefore Turkey has an interest in aiding its neighbour Greece in its difficulties, as well as a cultural inclination. The Greek people are finding it difficult to face the economic crisis. Transportation, access and freighting may be eased in the region. An exceptional practice regarding the free movement of goods, services and labour may be implemented with certain limits and conditions. Thus the annual trade volume of USD 5 billion may be raised much higher. Thus Greece can ensure more output and employment. As a result standards of living and level of welfare will rise. The sides should post haste encourage relations between NGOs. Professional organisations should be in closer contact. Foreign policy should be run from now on through direct contact between the peoples. Radicals may thus be kept off the stage and the potential of the two countries may be realised. If this can be achieved, relations between Ankara and Athens may become productive.

TRK YUNAN LKLERNDE YEN AFAK

13 03 2013

Ege Denizinde Yeni Bir Umut Var M?... Trk-Yunan ilikilerinde yeni bir dnem balyor. Getiimiz gnlerde stanbulda yaplan yksek dzeyli stratejik konsey toplants bunun iaretiydi. Ankara ve Atina enerjiden, turizmden telekomnikasyona kadar hemen her konuyu ele aldlar. Ayrca iki lke arasnda eitli konularda bakan dzeyinde temaslar da artt. Her iki lkenin dileri bakanlklar da youn almalarna hz veriyorlar. Trk-Yunan ilikilerinde gen nesillerin gelecee daha gvenle bakmas iin yeni admlar atlmas lazm. Yeni admlar ise sadece y eni hedefler iin atlabilir. Yeni bir hedef ve yeni bir yntem ile yenilik iin yeni adm atmak mmkn olabilir. Dier trl Trk -Yunan ilikileri -diledii kadar gl iradeyle olursa olsun- kara saplanm arabann yapt patinajdan fazlasn yapamaz; zaman, enerji ve para byk bir grlt ile sadece zi yan olur. Trkiyenin ve Yunanistann bu hatadan sratle uzaklamas lazm NATO yesi iki lke olan Trkiye ve Yunanistan itirakisi ittifak, ait olduklar kamp ve taraf olduklar uluslararas anlamalar ve szlemeler vastasyla pek ok ortak noktaya sahipler ve ortak karlar paylayorlar. Trkiye-Yunanistan ilikileri kkl ve zengin bir gemie sahip; Dolaysyla Ankara ve Atina iin bugne, yarna ve yarndan sonrasna ilikin kapsaml admlar atmak mmkn. Taraflarn byk nem atfettii biimde ibirlii ikliminin gelitirmesi; ikili, blgesel ve uluslararas konularda ortak admlar atmalarn mmkn klabilir. O nede nle her iki lkenin de sorunlarn zm iin beraber hareket etmeleri sadece onlarn deil, btn blgenin ve periferide yer alan lkelerin menfaatinedir 2013 yl itibariyle Egenin iki yakasn paylaan lkeler geriye deil, ileriye dnk bir bak asyla yola devam etmeliler. Baka bir deyile ortak bir gelecek kurmay ve gelecei paylamay amallar. Karlkl karlarn gzetildii ve ortak karlarn beraberce gelitirildii bir iklimi balatmay denemeliler. Bunun taraflar mutabk olduklar temel ilkeleri beraberce deklare ederek, bunu ikili ilikilerin temel ta veya hut zel dokusu olarak

gzetmeliler. Bylece hem Ankara hem de Atina ikili ilikilerin kurumsallamasna nemli bir hizmeti zenle salam olurlar. Dier bir deyile ikili ilikilerin geliimi ve gelecei, olas iktidar deiikliklerinden bamsz srer ve i politik gelimelere kar imnite eld e eder. Ankara-Atina hattnn geleceinde yeni ve baka suni krizler yer almamal. Bunun iin gereken mekanizmalar gelitirilmeli. Taraflar n srekli ve kesintisiz bir diyaloga sahip olmasnn konforunuda asla imtina etmemeli. Trkiye -Yunanistan ilikileri hatta genel ortak ilkeler zemininde biimlendirilerek, ok boyutlu eylem planlaryla desteklenmeli. Her iki lkede de mevcut ikili politik durum ile ilgili zihniyet deiiklii gerekiyor. Tarihi travmalar bir kenara itilmeli, dini ve milli nyarglar ve saplantlar terk edilmeli ve her iki halkn ortak refah ve mutluluu iin cesur admlar atlmal. Elbette Ankara ve Atina her konuda ve her zaman ayn fikirde olamazlar. Olmalar da beklenemez. Bunun yerine iki devletin mutabk olduklar hususlar gelitirmeleri daha uygun bir seenek olabilir. Buna ok uygun bir rnek vermek gerekirse, hem Trk hem de Yunan mutfanda yer alan dolma yemeinin kknn kimde olduunu tartp kavga etmek yerine, dolma sayesinde Trk ve Yunan halklarnn refahna, mutluluuna nasl daha byk katk salanabilir. O sayede dnya piyasalarnda dolma vesilesiyle nasl ibirlii yaplabilir, bunun zerinde durmak daha doru olur Belki dolma tebessm ettiren bir rnek olabilir. Ama bunun yerine turizmden tarma ve enerjiden nakli yeye ve daha pek ok sektre kadar ok geni bir yelpazeden sz etmek mmkn olabilir. Trk-Yunan ilikilerini ksr ekimelerin zerine karmann zaman geldi. ki lkenin ortak menfaatlerini basit siyasi demagojil ere bundan sonra kurban etmemek lazm. zellikle her yerel ve genel seimde ikili ilikilerin geriye gitmesine sebep olmamak lazm. Trkiye ve Yunanistan milli ve dini hamaset ile deil, akl ile hareket etmeli, yaratlacak sinerji sayesinde, gereki ve faydal hedeflere beraber yrmel iler. Trk-Yunan ilikilerinin Egedeki kta sahanl gibi anlamazlklarn srdrlmesi veya bunun gibi anlamazlklarn zlmesi ze rinde bina edilmesi olasl yok. ayet bu mmkn olsayd, getiimiz on yllar boyunca baarlabilirdi. Kukusuz bu konularda kimin hakl olduuna ve hangi zm yolunun tercih edilmesi gerektiine uluslararas hukuk kurallar karar verebilir. Ama taraflar ncelii ortak karlarn gelitirilmesini ve yeni ortak deerler retilmesine vermeliler. Fakat yine altn izmekte fayda var; nceliin pein kabullerin, nyarglarn, n artlarn almasna vermek gerekiyor. Eer taraflar iyi niyetle hareket ederse, her sorun zlr ve iki lkenin tarihinde yeni ve zengin bir dnemin kaps aralanr. Taraflarn birbiriyle paylaabilecekleri nemli deneyimleri var. Nitekim Trkiye daha nce pek ok defa ekonomik kriz yaad. Trkiye krizle yaama konusunda da, kriz ama ve kriz srelerini ynetme konusunda da birikime sahip. Bugn iin Trkiye daha iyi durumda o labilir. Ama Trkiye blgesinde Yunanistan gibi nemli ve byk lkenin kriz ierisinde olmasnn ve kronik krizden mustarip olmasnn blge istikrar i in tad riskin farknda. Dolaysyla Trkiye komusu Yunanistann bu zor gnnde yannda olmay hem karlarnn bir paras hem de kltrnn bir esi kabul eder. Yunan halk ekonomik krizi gslemekte zorlanyorlar. Blgede ulam, eriim, nakliye kolaylatrlabilir. Hatta belirli bir erevede mal, hizmet ve emein serbest dolam hakknda belirli bir dneme ve belirli baz artlara mahsus istisnai bir uygulama dahi mmkn olabilir. Bu sayede 5 milyar USD civarndaki ortak ticaret hacmi, ok daha yksek seviyelere tanabilir. Bu sayede Yunanistan daha fazla retim ve dolaysyla daha fazla istihdam temin edebilir. Bunun devamnda ise Yunanistanda yaam standartlar ve refah dzeyi yeniden ykselie geebilir. Taraflar vakit kaybetmeden sivil toplum kurulular arasndaki ilikileri tevik etmeliler. Meslek gruplar arasnda temaslar artrmallar. D politika bundan sonra halklar arasnda dorudan temaslarla daha iyi bir zeminde ve daha hzl biimde ilerlemeli. Bu sayede radikaller sahneden daha uzak tutulabilir ve iki lkenin toplam potansiyeli harekete geirilebilir. ay et onu temin etmek mmkn olursa, Ankara-Atina ilikileri retken bir kimlik kazanabilir.

INCOME FALLS, FASCISM RISES

07 01 2013

Economic crisis in Greece provokes racism Democracy is the regime for well fed societies. A society is democratic when it is well fed and only when it is well fed. If a society has to go hungry, it is not interested in democracy. Then what is deemed necessary from society is bread and not rights, freedoms, rules or responsibilities. This is a sad process which rarely ends well and Greece has entered this ride of horror. Greece was never a country where different groups lived in harmony. Athens was generally not good at establishing good relations with its neighbours. Whatever anyone might say the fact remains that along with the Vatican, Greece was one of the two religious states in Europe. Greece is also the only European state which has race based official policies. Greece was not a country for which one often used the words concord or harmony. But now circumstances are worse. The people are becoming poorer. The state has gone bankrupt. The system relies on Europe wiping off old debt and lending anew at regular intervals. Unemployment in Greece continues to rise and the economy continues to contract. Debts continue to mount in Greece. Social tension is very high. Everyone is unhappy, upset and reactive. During extraordinary times fringe ideas and parties attract more attention. Under unusual circumstances, unusual people and groups come to be preferred. The collective subconscious reacts. The diseases which were kept hidden and masked in society begin to fester like a wound. Societies rarely accept their own faults. It is always someone else who is at fault. Sometimes it is the neighbouring household, sometimes it is the neighbouring country that is to blame, depending on the scale. A guilty party is selected and collectively detested. Reactions target that party. In some countries the guilty party is selected among the especially weak groups such as minorities, foreigners and immigrants.

For some reason the faulty party was not selected from among those who caused the debts which led to Greece going bankrupt. African immigrants became targets as if it was they who had done the borrowing and the Turkish minority in Western Thrace and the Aegean Islands as though they had ill spent the funds. There were even those who blamed Turkey for the crisis. It was claimed that Greece carried out unnaturally high expenditure on its military and armaments because of Turkey. Those who voiced such a claim must not know that both Greece and Turkey are members of the NATO. Her nedense borca batp iflas eden Yunanistanda sulu o borca neden olanlar arasndan seilmedi. Racist attacks have been on the rise in Greece in recent years. The number of attacks targeting foreigners and immigrants has increased. In Greece one can easily become a target due to skin colour or choice of clothing. It is not only those who live in Greece but are not from Greek or Orthodox origin who think this. Internationally respected human rights organisations such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International share these concerns. The fact that the police has arrested 1,500 immigrants and taken 6,700 into custody fans these concerns. Nikos Dendias, Minister for Public Safety and Protection of Citizens has announced that a presidential decree has been issued for the establishment of a special unit within the Greek police force tasked with preventing racism. This method may protect victims from the racists. But who is going to protect the victims of the police? It is said that most of the racist attacks and the inhuman and racially motivated harassment and assaults by the police go unrecorded in Greece. Therefore the present frightening numbers are probably the tip of the iceberg. It is known that organisations such as the Golden Dawn have become increasingly popular among civil servants in Greece and that the far right political views are on the rise. The European Union and the United Nations are watching rising fascism in Greece with increasing concern. Perhaps it is more than just the state coffers which have become bankrupt in Greece. The state coffers may be filled with transfers with many zeros from Brussels and Berlin, but the moral bankruptcy in Greece cannot be so easily healed.

GELR DNCE FAZM BYR

02 01 2013

Yunanistanda ekonomik kriz rkl kkrtyor Demokrasi tok toplumlarn rejimidir. Bir toplum tok iken demokrat olur ve sadece tok ise demokrat olur. Eer bir toplum a kalrsa demokrasi ile ilgilenmez. nk o zaman o toplum iin gereken haklar, zgrlkler, kurallar ve sorumluluklar deildir, ekmektir. Bu ok ackl bir sretir ve sonu nadiren iyi gelir; Yunanistan bir korku tneline girdi Yunanistan zaten hibir zaman farkllklarn uyumunun grld bir lke olmay baaramad. Atina genellikle komu lkeleriyle dostluk ilikisi kurmakta baarl olmad. Kim ne derse desin, nasl yorumlarsa yorumlasn, Yunanistan btn Avrupada iki din devletinden birisi. Dieri de Vatikan. Yine itiraz edenler muhakkak olur, ama Yunanistan rka dayal resmi politikalar olan tek Avrupa devleti. Dolaysyla Yunanistan zaten uyum, ahenk, harmoni ve saire gibi szckler iin bir hayli zor bir lkeydi, her zaman. Ama imdi artlar daha da kt. Halk giderek fakirleiyor. Devlet ise zaten iflas etti. Sistem Avrupann dzenli olarak eski borlar silip, yeni bor vermesi sayesinde yryor. Btn rakamlar ok kt. Yunanistanda isizlik artmaya devam ediyor. Yunanistanda ekonomi kl meye devam ediyor. Yunanistanda retim dmeye devam ediyor. Yunanistanda borlar da artmaya devam ediyor. lkede sosyal tansiyon da ok yksek Herkes mutsuz, herkes fkeli ve herkes tepkili... Sra d dnemlerde sra d fikirler ve partiler daha ok tevecch grr. Normal olmayan artlarda normal olmayan insanlar , gruplar, topluluklar takdir edilir. Bir de elbette kolektif bilinalt kendisini gsterir. Toplumda gizlenen, saklanan, maskelenen hastalklar -tpk cerahat gibi- ortaya kmaya balar. Toplumlar nadiren kendi kabahatini kabul eder. Sulu ve sorumlu daima bir bakasdr. Bazen komu aile bazen de komu lke suludur, yerine gre. Bir sulu seilir ve o suludan topluca nefret edilir. Ona tepki de gsterilir. Baz lkelerde ise sulu veya kabahatli zellikle zayf olanlardan seilir. rnein aznlklardan, yabanclardan ve gmenlerden Her nedense borca batp iflas eden Yunanistanda sulu o borca neden olanlar arasndan seilmedi. O borcu alanlar Afrikal gmenlermi gibi, o paray batranlar Bat Trakyadaki ve adalardaki Trk aznlkm gibi, onlar hedef oldu. Hatta Trkiyenin bu krizden sorumlu olduunu da iddia edenler oldu. nk Yunanistann ar yksek askeri harcamalar ve silah ithalat Trkiyenin yzndenmi. Belki de bu iddiay dile getirenler hala Trkiye ve Yunanistann -her ikisinin de- NATO yesi olduunu bilmiyordur Velhasl Yunanistanda rk saldrlarda son yllarda ciddi bir art yaanyor. zellikle yabanclar ve gmenleri hedef alan saldrlarn says artyor. Yunanistanda ten rengi ve kyafet bir kiiyi kolaylkla hedef halin e getirebilir. Bunu dnenler sadece Yunanistanda yaayan, ama Yunan asll veya Ortodoks kkenli olmayanlar deil. Ayn zamanda Human Rights Watch ve Amnesty International gibi uluslararas sahada saygn sivil toplum kurulular da ayn endieye sahipler. Polisin 6.700 gmeni gzaltna almasnn ve 1.500 gmeni tutuklamasnn bunda etkili olduu kesin. Kamu Gvenlii ve Vatanda Koruma Bakan Nikos Dendias, rk saldrlarla mcadele iin Yunan polisi iinde zel bir birim oluturulmasn ngren bir Cumhurbakanl kararnamesi karldn aklad. Ama bu yntemle kurbanlar rklardan korunabilir. Fakat dier kurbanlar Yunan polisinden kim koruyacak? Yunanistanda vuku bulan rk saldrlarn ve polis tarafndan yaplan gayri insani, kt niyetli ve rk motivasyonlu taciz ve saldrlarn ounluunun kaytlara gemedii belirtiliyor. O nedenle hlihazrda rktc olan rakamlar gerein kk bir paras. Yunanistanda devlet mensuplar arasnda Altn afak gibi rgtlerin giderek daha popler olduu ve ar sa siyasi grn giderek yayld biliniyor. Avrupa Birlii ve Birlemi Milletler de Yunanistanda yaanan faizm trblansn kayg ile izliyor. Galiba Yunanistanda yolun sonunda ola n veya iflas eden

devlet kasasndan daha fazlas. Belki iflas eden devlet kasas Berlinden, Brkselden yaplan bol sfrl online havaleler ile yenide dolar, ama Yunanistanda iflas eden toplum vicdan -bolca sfr tarafndan ynetilen lkede- bir daha telafi olmaz.

WHO CARES ABOUT THE GREEK PEOPLE?

10 01 2013

From the cradle to the tomb of democracy Greece is going through the most difficult crisis in its history. Greece is also experiencing one of the deepest crises seen in finance history. The Greek state is bankrupt. The economic system in Greece has collapsed. Athens is trying to survive on foreign aid. As everyone knows, in Greece those who have caused the debt and those who have to repay it are not the same set of people. The future of the Greek people is in shambles. Greece is frequently said to be the cradle of democracy. This is meant to say that Greece is where democracy was born and developed. Although there is scant evidence in the history of Greece to back up this claim, it may still be thought that a European Union member state would have a well rooted and sufficiently advanced democracy. There is no need here to define the conceptual framework of democracy. The simplest components of democracy are self-rule and the rule of the country through the will of the people. More can be said about democracy of course, but this much suffices for our purposes. For the Greek people do not enjoy either principle today. The sorry state of Greece was witnessed in elections held in May and June. Elections in Greece were held on the 6 th of May 2012. The electorate punished the two main parties which led the country to ruin. PASOK and New Democracy suffered severe setbacks. While the two parties had together won 80 percent of the valid vote in elections held in 2009, this time they totalled around 30 percent. In elections held on the 6th of May New Democracy got 18.85 percent of the vote, the Radical Left-wing Alliance (SYRIZA) got 16.78 percent, PASOK got 13.18 percent, ANEL got 10.60 percent, the Greek Communist Party got 8.48 percent, Golden Dawn got 6.97 percent and DIMAR got 6.10 percent of the vote. This is how the electorate punished PASOK and New Democracy for their policy of balance which had been going on for decades. Someone had to pay the political bill for cuts to the minimum wage which is currently EUR 750, to worker and retiree salaries, to healthcare and education expenditure and to the laying off of 150,000 public personnel. According to the results, Greece did not seem too keen on the Eurozone. Everyone knew that had Greece not been in the Eurozone, it could have devalued its currency Drachma, diminish its debt through inflation, increase public spending and household income, promote consumption and overcome this crisis with some wounds. A cabinet could not be established after the elections on the 6th of May. PASOK and NEW Democracy should have admitted their share in the national disaster. They should have respected the views and preferences of the electorate. Instead they blocked efforts at forming a government and the country had to hold elections again. With new elections on the 17th of June, they sent out a message loud and clear; it is not the man in the street who determines the government or the electoral results in Greece, nor does he borrow heavily. But he has to pay back the debt and accept whatever government is established. In the renewed elections of 17th of June, either New Democracy or PASOK had to come out victorious. Either of them singly or both of them together had to found the new government. For there were promises made, which had to be kept without intervention from the Greek people. Among these promises was axing 15,000 public jobs in 2012 and 150,000 public jobs until 2015. Promises had already been made to lower minimum pay by 22 percent and lower pensioner salaries. The government to be founded was to promise EUR 3 billion worth of cuts in spending and EUR 15 billion worth of privatisation. To this needs to be added amendments to labour laws to make firing easier and rising taxation. In the renewed elections of 17th of June, New Democracy came out on top by a margin. New Democracy got 29.7 percent of the vote while SYRIZA got 26.9 percent, PASOK got 12.3 percent, ANEL got 7.5 percent, Golden Dawn got 6.9 percent and DIMAR got 6.2 percent and the Greek Communist Party got 4.5 percent of the vote. The announcement by New Democracy party leader Antonis Samaras that the elections represented a victory for Europe was apt, as the government which was later set up was to serve the European Union and not the Greek people. Had the Greek people been simply ignored during the elections but accorded significance at other times, there may still have been hope. But other than going to the election booth twice in 2012, the Greeks spent their time in protest on the streets. They gained no results. In January doctors went on strike for 72 hours in protest of the new pay policy. Pharmacists closed down their shops for 48 hours because they could not receive payments owed. They were followed by farmers. In the region on Viotia farmers distributed potatoes and onions to the public for free. They also held rallies. Nothing was thus obtained. In February too the Greeks rose up in protest as usual and held event after event. There was another strike in February. Public and private sector workers decided to go on strike for 48 hours against austerity measures prepared due to the demands of the Troika formed of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. There were pitched battles on the streets during the strike. There was much disturbance in Athens and other cities. Cars were torched and shops and banks were targeted by Molotov cocktails. Official announcements claimed that 93 buildings, of which nine were of historical or architectural significance, were heavily damaged, 150 buildings were lightly damaged and 40 tonnes of stone and marble rubble had to be collected off the streets. Nevertheless, social opposition was not heard by government or parliament. The government answered the Troikas bidding. T he parliament accepted every demand from the government. Neither peaceful protests, nor violent attacks of the Greek people mattered, even if they kept it up from dusk till dawn. Thousands of people fought the police multiple times in 2012. The symbol for the recent conditions in Greece and its people came to the fore on the 4thof April. Dmitris Christoulas was neither an opposition leader nor a protestor. He was a 77 year old retired pharmacist. He committed suicide in Sintagma Square, which is where protestors usually fight the police in Athens. He left behind a note saying I wanted to end my life honourably before having to search for food in the garbage. Statistics show that 1,500 people have committed suicide in Greece since the beginning of the crisis. Suicide rates have increased by 40 percent in the last 3 to 4 years. Suicide follows the death of hope. Among the desperate Greek people, those contemplating suicide are increasing in number.

Maritime workers whose lives have been ruined held a two day protest. The government has lowered their pay, pension pay and the healthcare services they have access to. But their two day strike was not heard in parliament or in government buildings in Athens. As made clear on the 26th of July, the Greek government sees itself as being responsible to the Troika of the European Union Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF, and not the Greek people. For Samaras, remarks by Troika representatives over coffee carry greater weight than chanting streets, exploding squares and an uprising of the people. Neither Athens nor Thessaloniki could stop Samaras. 15,000 unionists marching against public spending cuts worth EUR 11.5 billion could not sway the government. The marches on parliament and official buildings around Sintagma Square in Athens could not change the governments ideas. The unprecedented level of security and the ban on public protests in Athens during German Chancellor Merkels visit in May d id not work. There -20th were major clashes between the people and the police. Despite this, and the general strike on the 18 of October, the government did not back down or listen to the people. 100,000 people fighting the police cannot be seen as an ordinary situation. If this is the number of people willing to take part in clashes, it would be simply overlooking the problem to call it a disturbance of order or a protest. The Greek people are being overlooked in Greece. Their decisions, reactions, fears, anger and concerns are given the cold shoulder. The process in Greece seems to indicate that this state of affairs will continue unchanged for years to come. This probably contributes to mental disorders plaguing the Greek people. German psychotherapist Georg Pieper evaluated the mental conditions of the Greek people to the German Junge Welt newspaper and used some disturbing expressions. Pieper has carried out investigations in Athens. He has worked on trauma therapy. He studied the increasing number of cases in Greece and met with Greek colleagues. Pieper states that there is a rise in the need for psychotherapists in Greece. Pieper states that the state does not cover psychotherapy costs in Greece and those who cannot afford private practices are victimised. According to Piepers claims to the Junge Welt there has been an increase in the number of assault and violence victims in Greece. The number of sexual abuse cases are rising. More people are injured in heavy accidents and fires. Pieper says that as disappointment rising in Greece aggression and tendency to violence are very high. Anxiety disorders and depression is rising among Greek men. Psychological damage done by houses warmed with wood unlawfully harvested from forests, entire neighbourhoods without heating, and of mass layoffs is a daily occurrence. People feel worthless when they lose their jobs. Millions are out of a job. Those still employed make less money than before the crisis. Cases of suicide have doubled in the last three years with 75 percent of suicide cases being male. Depression and anxiety disorders increase alcohol consumption and propensity to domestic violence. Among the half employed youth, street gangs are becoming more prominent. Support for fascist organisations such as the Golden Dawn is rising. The Greek state no longer controls certain streets and neighbourhoods. In the country where the healthcare system has collapsed and finding medicine is a profession on its own, those admitted to hospital have to bring bedding and food from their homes. As cleaning staff in hospitals have been laid off, doctors and nurses are trying to ensure hygiene. As private hospitals are too expensive, many people have to go without treatment. In other words, Greeks are unhealthy bodily and mentally. Greece is paying its debts with its soul.

YUNAN HALKI KMN UMURUNDA?

09 01 2013

Demokrasinin beiinden demokrasinin mezarna Yunanistan tarihinin en ar krizini yayor. Ayrca Yunanistan finans tarihinin de en ar krizlerinden birisini yayor. Yunanistanda devlet iflas etti. Yunanistanda ekonomik sistem kt. Atina d yardmlarla ayakta kalmaya alyor. Herkesin bildii gibi, herkesin grd gibi; Yunanistanda bor alan, borca neden olan baka, borcu demek zorunda olan baka! Yunan halknn gelecei bitti Yunanistan sklkla demokrasinin beii olarak tanmlanr. Yani Yunanistann demokrasinin doduu ve gelitii yer olduu anlamnda bu ifade kullanlr. Elbette Yunanistann tarihinde bu iddiay teyit eden veri dikkat ekecek derecede az. Ama yine de Avrupa Birlii yesi bir lkenin kkl ve kafi derecede gelikin bir demokrasiye sahip olduu dnebilir. Demokrasi kavramnn anlam erevesi zerinde ok durmaya gerek yok. nk demokrasinin en basit tanm olan kendi kendini ynetme ve lkenin halk iradesiyle ynetilmesi ilkesi yeterli. Elbette demokrasi hakknda daha birok sz edilebilir. Ama bu ikisi yeterli. nk Yunan halk bugn bu iki ilkeden mahrum. Yunanistandaki ackl tablo Mays ve Haziran aylarnda yaplan seimlerde de belli oldu. Yunanistanda seimler 6 Mays 2012 tarihinde yapld. Semen lkeyi ke gtren iki byk partiyi cezalandrd. PASOK ve Yeni Demokrasi Partisi ar oy kaybna uradlar. 2009 ylnda yaplan seimlerde geerli oylarn yaklak % 80'e yakn ksmn alan iki parti, sert bir dle toplamda %30'lar seviyesinde kaldlar. 6 Mays seimlerinde Yeni Demokrasi Partisi %18,85, Radikal Sol ttifak (SYRIZA) %16,78, PASOK %13,18, ANEL %10,60, Yunanistan Komnist Partisi %8,48, Altn afak %6,97 ve DMAR %6,10 oy ald. Semen hem PASOKu hem de Yeni Demokrasi Partisine on yllardr devam eden karlkl denge politikasnn hesabn byle sordu. Nihayetinde 750 EUR dzeyindeki asgari crette, maalarda ve emekli maalarnda yaplacak kesintilerin, azaltlacak eitim ve salk harcamalarnn, ayrca 150.000 kamu personelinin iten karlmasnn bir faturas olmalyd. Bu tabloya gre Yunan kamuoyu Avro Blgesi konusunda srarc deildi. nk herkes biliyordu ki, ayet Yunanistan Avro Blgesinde olmasayd, eski milli para birimi Drahmiyi devale eder, daha sonra borlarn enflasyonla eritir, hem kamu harcamalarn hem de hane bana geliri artrp, tketimi kkrtarak bu sreci yaral da olsa atlatrd. 6 Mays seimlerinden sonra hkmet kurulamad. Halbuki PASOK ve Yeni Demokrasi Partisi yaanan milli felakette paylar olduunu kabul etmeliydiler. Semenin tepkisine ve tercihine sayg gstermeliydiler. Ama onun yerine seimlerin ardndan hkmet kurma almalarn bloke

ettiler ve lke yeniden seime gitti. 17 Haziranda yaplacak seimler ile kamuoyuna bir mesaj vermi oldular. Yunanistanda kurulacak hkmeti de, seim sonularn sokaktaki adam tayin etmez. Borcu da o almaz. Ama borcu da o der, kurulacak hkmeti de o kabul eder 17 Haziran seimlerinde ya Yeni Demokrasi Partisi ya da PASOK zafer kazanmalyd. Hkmeti ya biri ya da ikisi beraber kurmalyd. nk verilen szler vard, o szler tutulmalyd ve Yunan halk da buna engel olmamalyd. Verilen szlerin arasnda 2012 ylnda 15.000ve 2015 ylna kadar 150.000 kamu grevlisinin iten karlmas vard. Ayrca Asgari maan %22 drlmesi ve emekli maalarnn indirilmesi de. Kurulacak hkmet harcamalarda 3 milyar EUR d salamay ve 2015 ylna kadar 15 milyar Euroluk zelletirme yapmay taahht edecek ve uygulanacakt. Buna ie alm ve kovulmay kolaylatrmak iin i kanunlarnda deiiklii, artacak vergileri de eklemek lazm. 17 Haziranda yenilenen seimlerden Yeni Demokrasi Partisiaz farkla birinci kt. Yeni Demokrasi Partisi %29,7, SYRIZA%26,9, PASOK %12,3, ANEL %7,5, Altn afak %6,9, DIMAR %6,2 ve Yunanistan Komnist Partisi de %4,5 orannda oy ald.Yunanistan'da Yeni Demokrasi Partisi, PASOK ve DMAR koalisyon hkmetini kurdu. Aslnda Yeni Demokrasi Partisi lideri Antonis Samarasn seimin ardndan yapt aklamadaki Avrupann zaferi ifadesi gerekten doruydu. nk bu seim sreci ve sonunda kurulan hkmet Yunan halknn deil, Avrupa Birliinin zaferiydi Yunan halk sadece seimlerde gz ard edilseydi, dier zamanlarda nemsenseydi belki iyimser olmak iin hala bir nedenin varlndan sz edilebilirdi. Ama Yunan halk iki defa sandk bana gitmesinin yan sra 2012 yln sokakta, meydanda, eylemde ve gsteride geirdi. Ama yine de hibir sonu elde edemedi. Ocak aynda doktorlar yeni maa politikasn protesto etmek iin 72 saat greve gitti. Ayrca eczaclar da alacaklarn tahsil edemedikleri iin 48 saat grev yapt. Onlar iftiler takip etti. Viotia blgesindeki iftiler halka bedava patates ve soan datt. Ayrca gs teriler dzenlediler. Hibir ie yaramad. ubat aynda Yunan halk her ay olduu gibi yine sesini ykseltti, eylem zerine eylem yapt. ubatta bir grev daha oldu. Kamu ve zel sektr alanlar hkmetin, yeni yardm karlnda Avrupa Birlii, Avrupa Merkez Bankas ve Uluslararas Para Fonunun temsil edildii Troykann taleplerini yerine getirmek iin yeni tasarruf tedbirlerine kar 48 saatlik grev karar ald. Grev srasnda sokak sava meydanna dnd. Atinada ve pek ok ehirde yer yerinden oynad. Arabalar yakld, maazalar a ve bankalara Molotof kokteylleri atld. Resmi aklamada dokuzu tarihi ve mimari adan deere sahip toplam 93 binann ciddi, 150 kadar binann hafif hasar grd ve caddelerden 40 ton ta ve mermer parasnn topland belirtildi. Toplumsal muhalefet yine de sesini hkmete de, parlamentoya da duyuramad. Hkmet Troykann her dediini yapt. Parlamento hkmetin her istediini kabul etti. Yunan halknn bar eylemleri de, sert protestolar da, geceleri sabahlara kadar sokaklarda olmas da hi deerindeydi. 2012 yl boyunca Yunanistanda binlerce kii defalarca binlerce polisle att. Yunanistann son halinin ve halkn durumunun simge ismi 4 Nisan gn belli oldu. O bir muhalefet lideri veya renci deildi . Dimitris Christoulas yal, emekli bir eczacyd.77 yandayd. Atina'nn sava meydan olan Sintagma meydannda intihar etti. Ardnda brakt notta, ple rden yiyecek arama durumuna gelmeden nce onurlu bir ekilde hayatma son vermek istedim yazlyd. statistikler, Yunanistanda krizin balangcndan bu yana yaklak 1.500 kiinin intihar ettiini gsteriyor. Yunanistanda intiharlar son 3 -4 ylda %40 artt. ntihar umudun ld yerde olur. nce umut lr, ardndan insan kendisini ldrmeyi dnr. Umudu len Yunan halknda lmeyi dnenlerin says da artyor. Nitekim hayat mahvolan denizcilik sektr alanlar da iki gnlk grev yapt. nk hkmet onlarn hem maalarn hem eme kliliklerini ve emekli maalarn hem de yararlandklar salk hizmetlerini azaltt. Ama onlarn yapt iki gnlk grevde Atinada hkmet ve parlamento binalarnda duyulmad, grlmedi nk 26 Temmuzda da grld gibi Yunanistanda hkmet iin esas sorumlu olduu kimseler Yunanistann vatandalar deil, Avrupa Birlii Komisyonu, Avrupa Merkez Bankas ve Uluslararas Para Fonu temsilcilerinden oluan Troyka heyeti. Samaras iin sokaklarn yanmas, meydanlarn patlamas veya halkn infiali deil, Troykann kahve ierken sohbet srasndaki muhtemel imalar daha belirleyici Samaras Atina da durdurmad, Selanik de durduramad. 11,5 milyar EUR tutarndaki kamu kesintisine kar yryen 15.000 sendikal da hkmeti vazgeiremedi. Atinada Sintagma meydannda hkmet ve parlamento binalarna kar dzenlenen yryler de hkmeti n fikrinden dnmesini salamad. Hatta Ekim aynda Almanya anslyesi Angela Merkelin Atina ziyareti srasnda kentte o gne kadar grlmemi sk gvenlik nlemleri uygulanmasna ramen ve protesto gsterilerinin yasaklanmas ie yaramad. Atinada halkla polis arasnda byk atmalar yaand. Buna ramen ve 18-20 Ekimdeki genel greve ramen, Atina hkmeti geri adm atmad ve halka kulak vermedi. 100.000 kiinin polisle atmas sradan bir durum olarak grlmemeli. Eer atanlarn says bu seviyeye geldiyse, buna asayi sorunu ya da protesto eylemi demek sadece sorunu yok saymak olur. Yunanistanda Yunan halk yok yerine konuluyor. Kararlar, tepkileri, korkular, fkeleri ve endieleri gz ard ediliyor. S re, bu halin daha uzun yllar bu ekilde aynen devam edeceini gsteriyor. Muhtemelen Yunan halkn ruh halinin bozuk olmasnda bunun etkisi de var. Alman psikoterapist Georg Pieper Almanyada yaynlanan Junge Welt adl gazeteye Yunan halknn psikolojik durumunu deerlendi rirken, gerekten tyler rpertici ifadeler kullanyor. Georg Pieper Atinada da incelemeler yapm. Travma terapisi konusunda almalar yrtm. Yunanistanda krizle beraber artan vakalar aratrm ve Yunan meslektalaryla grm. Georg Pieper Yunanistanda psikote rapistlere olan ihtiyacn kesinlikle arttn ifade ediyor. Pieper Yunanistanda devletin psikoterapi bedelini demediini ve zel kliniklere g idemeyen ihtiya sahiplerinin madur olduunu sylyor. Pieperin Junge Weltte aktardna gre Yunanistanda darp ve iddet saldrs kurbanlarnn saysnda ciddi bir art var. Ayrca cinsel istismar vakalarnn says da artyor. Ar kazalarda ve yangnlarda yaralananlarn says da ykseliyor. Pieper Yunan toplumunda hsrann arttn, saldrganln ve iddet potansiyelinin de ok yksek seviyelere ktn kaydediyor. Yunan erkekleri arasnda anksiyete bozukluklar ve depresyon giderek yaylyor. Ormandan kaak kesilen aalarla stlan evler, stma sistemi tmden devre d olan mahalleler, toplu iten karmalarn g etirdii psikolojik tahribat gnlk hayatn paras. nsanlar iini kaybedince kendisini deersiz hissediyor. Milyonlarca insan iini kaybetti. Halen ii olanlar ise kriz ncesine gre yar yarya az para kazanyorlar. Erkeklik gururu krlyor. Yunanistanda yl ncesine gre intihar vakalar iki kat artt ve intihar edenlerin %75i erkeklerden meydana geliyor. Alkol tketimini de artran depresyon ve aksiyete bozukluu erkeklerin aile iin iddete eilimini artryor. Yars isiz olan genlik arasnda da sokak eteleri artyor. Altn afak (Hrisi Avgi) gibi faist rgtlere sempati duyanlarn says ykseliyor. Yunanistanda devlet baz sokaklarda ve mahallelerde artk sz sahibi deil. Salk sistemi ken ve hastanelerinde ila bulmann bile mesele haline geldii lkede, hastaneye yatanlar yemeklerini ve nevresimlerini evden getirmek zorunda. Hastanelerdeki temizlik personeli iten karld iin hijyeni doktor ve hemireler salamaya gayret ediyor. Dier taraftan zel hastaneler de ok pahal olduu ii n, pek ok kimse tedavi veya terapi gremiyor. Dier bir deyile Yunan halknn akl ve ruh sal bozuldu. Yunanistan borlarn ve bunun faturasn gerek anlamda ruhuyla dyor

ATHENS: THE SLAUGHTERHOUSE OF DEMOCRACY

21 02 2013

The missing demos and cratos The overall situation in Greece is becoming increasingly worrying. Democracy in Greece has been put in the freezer. Neither the words nor the reactions of the people and the electorate matter in Greece. The Athens administration has killed democracy. The world used to think that Greeks were the inventors of democracy. The word democracy, it was said, came from Greek. This was what the world thought. Demos and Cratos It was said that the word democracy comes from an amalgamation of the Greek word demos for people and cratos for rule and thus meant the peoples rule. Democracy meant the form of government based on the sovereignty of the people. To use the phrased introduced by Abraham Lincoln, democracy is the rule of the people by the people and for the people. Democracy may also be thought of as an ideal towards which one should constantly strive. The realisation of democracy to the letter is not possible. At a time in which differences multiply, diversity increase and globalisation moves at such speed, democracy cannot be expected to meet all the desires of the entire people. There was never an administration which was perfectly in line with the tendencies of the people and there will perhaps never be such a government. The majority principle The aim and ideal of implementing and fully running a democracy should nevertheless be preserved. There should be no exceptions to democracy. Efforts should be made to realise it fully. The majority principle in democracy should never be violated. The state should be run according to the will of the majority of the people whatever the circumstances. The decision of the majority is above everything else. This is not open to debate. Any exceptions to this should be taken as a violation of the principles, values and choices of the majority. These principles and values should apply to every demos and in every cratos, even in Greece. The Greek people are desperate Circumstances are very different in Greece. In Athens, which is said to be the cradle of democracy things are being done which could never be in keeping with democracy. A recent development serves well to describe both the situation in Greece and the desperation which has settled within the system. Demonstrators have stormed the offices of a minister. The police used batons and tear gas to drive them away. The offices of Minister for Labour Yiannis Vroutsis were saved from the protestors. In the course of events chairs and doors were broken. The gathered crowd had wanted to demonstrate against the changes to be made to the countrys social security system. The people are fed up with the government not heeding public opinion. In Greece the government is still determined through elections but it does not care for, or more significantly represent, the views, preferences, reactions and anger of the Greek people. Greece was not among those countries where angry crowds stormed ministerial offices. In times when governments and parliamentarians were accountable to the people, public opinion mattered. That came to an end with the economic crisis. Democracy is a regime for people with full bellies. The number of such people in Greece is on the fall. The number of hungry people in Greece may come to exceed the number of full people. Under such circumstances there can be no democracy. In any case, once the people who cannot have the state hear their voice, the society with its falling standards of living, households which cannot entertain any hope for the future and people ashamed of their poverty lose all hope, the offices of every minister in any country may be stormed. Things will be like they were when the last pharaoh Hosnu Mubarak and the undefeatable Gaddafi fell. Things different for Demos and Cratos Since the beginning of the process the people have opposed tax hikes. The people have been refusing austerity measures from the beginning. Public opinion in Greece believes that governments will not be able to solve the problems of the country in this way. The years which have passed in greater misery than under wartime circumstances show that the people were right all along. The Greek people have been vocal in their reactions. Yet, despite all the strikes, protests, demonstrations and even suicides, nothing changes. Politicians listen to Brussels and not to the people. Bureaucrats look in the eyes of the Troika delegation in the VIP hall of the airport, rather than towards the unhappy, poor and angry people on the streets and in the squares. The people have three options in Greece. They can vote, they can go on strike and they can protest. No one cares the least about any of these. The people have lost the belief that things may get better in the future. Nothing gets better in any field. The Greek people have to live with the heavy windfall resulting from the country being pushed into a debt hole. The European Central Bank, the Eurozone and the IMF lend credit to Greece, ostensibly to keep the economy running. But the Greek economy is getting worse, not better. The state has cut expenditure. It has also lowered pay. It has reduced retirement rights. Furthermore it is laying off public personnel. The result of the policies the state has followed the despite the people is 26.8 percent unemployment in Greece. Greek debt stands at 1.8 times its yearly output. If Greece can reduce the proportion of 180 to 100 debt over GDP to 124 to 100 by 2020, it will claim victory and say the crisis is over. Everything is fine with the economy Worst of all, the Greek government pretends that everything is getting better. Speaking to the BBC, Finance Minister Yannis Sturnaras has said there is definitely a ray of hope, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Since the onset of the crisis, Greek government have frequently seen the light at the end of the tunnel. But the light was not daylight. It was the headlights of the train coming straight towards them. Whenever the Greek government saw the light at the end of the tunnel there were price hikes, increased taxes and pay cuts. The train which Greek ministers saw the light of, drove straight over the Greek people.

In his interview, Sturnaras said I see the possibility of Greece leaving he Eurozone as very slim. According to Sturnaras t he Greek government managed to reverse the poor course of the Greek economy. Markets have started to have a better opinion of Greece. Savings have started to return to banks. The Greek government has started to carry out belated debt payments to the private sector. The opinion of Greece held by the European public, European institutions and European countries has improved. all relevant data are positive. According to the minister Greece has covered two thirds of the way. If we believe the Greek finance minister, the bad days will soon be over for Greece. Things are almost done. Recovery will definitely begin in the last quarter of 2013. Greece will be growing from 2014 onwards. The Greek minister thinks this will happen one hundred percent. This, despite the certainty that Greece will contract by at least 4.5 percent in 2013. Greek minister had previously been outspoken. They made certain other claims. For example, they said that they would never give in to the Troika. They also said they would pay back every last cent to Europe. They said that they would never demand debt reduction. They would never want an erasure of debt. They would not ask to borrow more. Every time they said it was the last. They said they would not demand debt restructuring and that a bond swap was out of the question. The Greek people find it increasingly difficult to believe their representatives. In his interview with the BBC Sturnaras said if we implement the recovery programme this year there will be no savings packa ge and no cuts to pay, social payments and retirement pensions. It is all so simple. In Greece which is on the verge of economic growth, the Greek people are cutting trees in forests and parks for heating, right before their economic move forward. Those pensioners with enough strength chop the logs while those who are weaker collect twigs off the ground. Running the news, the BBC has said that the elderly who cannot afford fuel on reduced pensions are cutting trees so that their grandchildren will not get sick. If old men are having to drag logs from parks in order not to freeze, democracy is either absent or faulty. If protestors have to storm ministries in order to get their voices heard, democracy has died or has been murdered. In democracies the desires of the people are met. The people elect the parliament and the ruling party. They in turn strive for the happiness of the people. In Greece democracy has died, it has been murdered. The Greek people have no weight or significance in the running of Greece. The only function of the people in Greece is to go to the polls when called for and to vote for PASOK or New Democracy, de pending which partys turn it is. The people have no other role to play. Yet in the land where democracy was born and developed, it should mean something more. Greece continues to be the weak link in Europe. This position is not limited to the economy or financial balances. Greece has always been problematic with regard to human rights and minority rights. Greece was not very successful by the Copenhagen Criteria. Everyone knew that Athens was good at adopting the law but was unsuccessful in its implementation. Therefore Greece had to be accepted with its disadvantaged structure in the European Union and by European institutions. Yet, Greece had never lagged so behind in terms of democracy. W hat would have happened had a German government acted the way the Papandreou government did or the French government imitated Samaras?

ATNA; DEMOKRASNN MEZBAHASI!

06 02 2013

Hani Demos?.... Nerede Kratos?..... Yunanistanda genel durum giderek daha fazla kayg verici bir hale geliyor. Yunanistanda demokrasi derin dondurucuya konuldu ve donduruldu. Yunanistanda halkn, semenin ne sznn bir etkisi var ne tepkisinin bir nemi var. Atinadaki ynetim demokrasiyi katletti Btn dnya demokrasi kavramnn mucidinin Yunanlar olduunu dnrd. Btn insanlar demokrasi kavramnn Yunanca olduunu sanrd. Btn dnyada insanlar byle zannederdi. Demos ve Kratos. nk sanlrd ki; Demokrasi eski Yunanca halk anlamna gelen demos ve ynetmek anlamna gelen kratos szcklerinin birlemesiyle olumutu ve bu anlamyla halkn ynetimi demekti. Yani demokrasi halkn egemenlii temeline dayanan ynetim biimi anlamna geliyordu. Dier bir deyile ABDnin eski bakanlarndan Abraham Lincolnn ifadesiyle demokrasi halkn, halk tarafndan, halk iin ynetimi idi. Kukusuz demokrasi, bir ideal olarak da grlebilir. Demokrasi daima gerekletirilmesi iin aba harcamaya devam edilmesi gereken bir hedef olarak da dnlebilir. nk demokrasinin kelimenin tam anlamyla gereklemesi imknszdr. eitliliin artt, farkllklarn oald ve kresellemenin de bu derecede hzland bir evrede demokrasinin btn halkn btn arzularnn gereklemesini salamas olanakszdr. Nihayetinde halkn eilimlerine tam olarak uyan bir ynetim tarihte bugne kadar hibir zaman olmad ve belki de hi olmayacak. ounluk Prensibi Ama demokrasiyi salama ve tam uygulama hedefi ve ideali daima korunmal. Demokrasilerin istisna anlay olmamal. Demokrasi lerin yerel veya blgesel itiraz hakk da olmamal. Demokrasi tam oluncaya kadar onu baarmak iin aba harcanmal. Ayrca hibir zaman demokrasilerde ounluk prensibi ihlal edilmemeli, kati suretle ihmal edilmemeli. Her halkarda, her ne zaman olursa olsun, her ne bedelle olursa olsun devlet, halkn ounluunun irad esine gre ynetilmelidir. nk ounluun karar, her eyin stndedir. Bu anlaya gre, ounluun ynetme hakk mutlaktr. Bunun tartmaya ak herhangi bir yn de yoktur. Buna herhangi bir istisna getirmek, ounluun btn ilkelerine, deerlerine ve tercihlerine saygszlk olarak kabul edilmelidir. Bu ilkeler ve deerler her demos ve her kratos iin de geerlidir, yle olmaldr; Hatta Yunanistanda bile Yunan Halk aresiz Ama Yunanistanda artlar ok farkl. Demokrasinin beii denilen Atina, demokrasinin doduu topraklarda bugnlerde demokrasi ile asla badamayacak ilere imza atyor. Yakn zamanda yaanan bir gelime, hem Yunanistann ierisinde bulunduu durumu hem de si stem zerinde bask kuran umutsuzluu ok iyi tarif ediyor.

Yunanistanda protestocular bir bakann ofisini bast. Polis onlar cop ve gz yaartc gaz kullanarak zorlukla durdurabildi. alma Bakan Yiannis Vroutsisin Ofisi gstericilerden kurtarld. Ama bu arada odalarn kaplar ve sandalyeler krld. Gsteri iin toplanan kalabalk lkenin sosyal gvenlik sisteminde yaplacak deiiklii protesto etmek istiyordu. nk Yunanistanda halk hkmetin kamuoyunu umursamamasndan bkt. Yunanistanda hkmetler artk kamuoyunu nemsemiyor. Yunan hkmetleri halen Yunan semenin oyuyla seiliyor, fakat Yunan halknn grlerini, tercihlerini, tepkilerini, fkelerini -aslnda hibir eyini- nemsemiyor ve bundan daha kts temsil etmiyor Aslnda Yunanistan fkelenen kalabalklarn bakanlarn odasn bast lkeler kategorisinde yer almyordu. nk Yunanistanda hkmetlerin, parlamenterlerin halka kar sorumluluu olduu zamanlarda kamuoyunun kanaatinin bir kymeti vard. Bu sre ekonomik kriz il e beraber sona erdi. Demokrasi tok toplumlarn rejimidir. Yunanistanda tok olanlarn says giderek azalyor. Yunanistanda a insanlarn says tok insanlarn saysn geebilir. Byle bir sre yaayan hibir lkede demokrasi geliemez veya uygulanamaz. Fakat yine de sesini devlete duyuramayan halkn, yaam kalitesi hzla den toplumun, gelecee gvenle bakamayan ailelerin ve fakirliinden utanan babalarn umudunu yitirdii noktada, sadece Vroutsisin deil, her bakann ve her lkedeki her bakann ofisi baslabilir. Tpk son firavun Hsn Mbarekin devrilmesi gibi, tpk asla devrilmez denilen Kaddafinin devrilmesi gibi Demos Baka, Kratos Baka Yunanistanda halk srecin bandan itibaren vergi artrmlarna kar! Yunan halk en Yunanistanda kamuoyu hkmetlerin mevcut sorunlar bu yntemlerle zemeyeceini Yunan halknn bu konuda ok hakl olduunu da gsteriyor. Ayrca Yunan halk tepkisini protestolara, gsterilere ve hatta intiharlara ramen hibir ey deimiyor. Siyasiler halka bandan bu tarafa tasarruf tedbirleri ni de ret ediyor! savunuyor! Savatan ar bir perianlkla geen yllar dile getiriyor. Ama btn buna ramen , btn grevlere, deil Brksele kulak veriyor. B rokratlar sokaklarda ve

meydanlarda toplanan mutsuz, fakir ve fkeli halka deil, havaalannn VIP salonunda bekleyen Troyka heyetinin gzlerinin iine bakyor. Yunanistanda halkn elinden gelen ey var. Oy vermek, grev yapmak ve protesto etmek. Her de kimsenin umurunda deil. Halkn gelecek iin umudu da, bir eylerin gelecekte belki daha iyi olabileceine inanc da kayboldu. Hibir sektrde hibir ey daha iyiye gitmiyor. Ama Yunan halk bor batana itilen lkedeki ar hasarla yaamak zorunda Gya Avrupa Merkez Bankas, Avro Blgesi lkeleri ve Uluslararas Para Fonu Yunanistan'a ekonominin arklarnn dnmesi iin kredi veriyorlar. Ama Yunan ekonomisi iyiye deil, ktye gidiyor. Devlet harcamalar azaltt. Vergileri artrd. Ayrca cretleri, maalar ve gelirleri drd. Bundan baka emeklilik haklarn azaltt. Hepsinden baka; kamu personelini iten karyor. Hkmetin Yunan halkna ramen ald kararlarn tek sonucu; Yunan halknn %26,8i isiz... Ayrca Yunanistan'n toplam yllk retiminin 1,8 kat borcu bulunuyor. Eer Yunanistan 2020 ylna kadar 100/180 orann, 100/124 oranna ekerse, zafer kazanm olacak, kriz bitti diyecek Ekonomide Her ey Yolunda Hepsinden daha da kts, Yunanistanda hkmet sanki her ey daha iyiye gidiyormu gibi davranyor. Maliye Bakan Yannis Stournaras BBCye verdii demete, umut kesinlikle var, tnelin ucunda k var diyor. Krizin balamasndan bu yana Yunan hkmetleri sklkla tnelin ucunda k grdler. Ama grdkleri k, hibir zaman kurtuluun deildi. Her defasnda o k dorudan stlerine gelen trenin yd! Yunan hkmetinin tnelin ucunda k grd her zaman yeni fiyat artrmlar, yeni vergi artrmlar ve maa kesintileri geldi. Yunan bakanlarn grd n sahibi olan tren, her defasnda adeta Yunan halknn zerinden geti. Soturnaras demecinde, Yunanistan'n Euro Blgesi'nden kma ihtimalini artk ok dk grdn de syledi. Stournarasa gre Yunan hkmeti ekonomideki gidiatn ynn deitirmeyi baard. Hatta piyasalar Yunanistana daha iyimser ve olumlu bakmaya balad. Bundan baka mevduatlar da bankalara dnmeye balad. Yunan hkmeti, zel sektre geciken bor demelerini yapmaya da balad. Zaten btn Avrupa kamuoyunun, Avrupa kurumlarnn ve Avrupa lkelerinin Yunanistana bakn deitirdi. Btn nemli veriler olumlu ha le geldi. Bakana gre Yunanistan hedefe olan mesafenin te ikisini geti bile Yunanistann maliye bakanna inanrsak, Yunanistan iin kt gnler bitiyor. Her ey geride kald, saylr. 2013 ylnn son eyreinde de toparlanma kesinlikle balayacak. Yunanistan 2014 ylndan itibaren yeniden byme srecine girecek. Yunan bakan bunun ihtimalini %100 diye ilan etti! stelik 2013 ylnda Yunanistann en az %4,5 klmesi kesin olduu halde Yunanistanda bakanlar daha nce de konutular. Hkmet yetkilileri baka iddialar da dile getirdiler. rnein, asla troykaya boyun emeyeceiz dediler. Ayrca Avrupadan alacamz her senti geri deyeceiz dediler. Bundan baka asla bor sildirmeyi denemeyeceiz dediler. Pek ok defa bor iptali talep etmeyeceiz dediler. ok defa bir daha tekrar bor istemeyeceiz dediler. Her defasnda bu kesinlikle son dediler. Borlarn yeniden yaplandrlmasn talep etmeyeceiz de dediler, tahvil takas sz konusu olamaz da dediler. Yunan halk setii yneticilere inanmakta giderek zorlayor. Zaten Stournaras da BBCye verdii demete ne dedi; bu seneki iyiletirme programn uygularsak baka kemer skma paketi olm ayacak; cretlerde, sosyal deneklerde ve emekli maalarnda da kesinti olmayacak Her ey bu kadar basit Ama ekonomik bymenin hemen arifesindeki Yunanistanda, ekonomik ahlann hemen ncesindeki Yunan halk, k atlatabilmek iin ormanlardan ve hatta parklardan aa kesiyor! Emeklilerden gc yetenler parklarda aa kesiyor, gszler ise yerlerden al rp topluyor. Bu haberi duyuran BBC, maalar azaltlan, yakt alamayan ve geinemeyen yallarn torunlarnn hasta olmamas iin parklardan aa kestiini belirtiyor Eer yal adamlar souktan donmamak iin parklardan aa kesip evine srklyorsa, orada demokrasi ya yok ya da noksan demektir. Eer protestocular seslerini devlete duyurmak iin bakanlk basyorsa, orada demokrasi ya lm ya da ldrlm demektir. Demokrasilerde halkn istedii yaplr. Halk parlamenterleri ve iktidar partisini seer. Onlar da bunun sorumluluu ile ve halkn grlerini temsil ederek, halkn mutluluu iin alrlar. Yunanistanda demokrasi ld, daha dorusu ldrld. Yunanistanda, Yunan lkesinin idaresinde Yunan halkn hibir arl ve nemi kalmad. Yunan halkn lkenin ynetimindeki tek ilevi arldnda sandk bana gidip, srayla PASOKa ve Yeni Demokrasi Partisine oy vermek. Bunun dnda Yunan halknn hibir etkisi yok. Hlbuki demokrasinin doduu topraklarda, demokrasiyi byten kltrde, demok rasi bundan daha fazla bir anlama sahip olmalyd. Yunanistan Avrupada hala zayf halka olmaya devam ediyor. Bu konum sadece ekonomi veya finansal dengeler ile snrl deil . Yunanistan daima Avrupa Birlii ierisinde insan haklar ve aznlk haklar gibi konularda sorunlu bir lkeydi. Yunanistann genel anlamda Kopenhag kriterleri sz konusu olduunda baarl deildi. Atinann genel olarak mevzuat benimsemekte baarl, ama uygulama konusunda baarsz olduu herkesin malumuydu. O nedenle Yunanistan Avrupa Birlii ats altnda ve Avrupa kurumlarnda dezavantajl yaps ile beraber kabul grmek zorundayd. Ama Yunanistan hibir dnemde demokraside bu kadar geriye gitmemiti. Acaba Almanyada hkmet Papandreu hkmetinin tavr ve slubuyla hareket etse ne olurdu? Veya Fransada hkmet Samarasn yaptn yapsayd?

THE INTIFADA IS 25 YEARS OLD

07 01 2013

The Palestinian people had begun the First Intifada in 1987 and they have not yet finished it. In December 1987 an Israeli truck in Gaza hit a Palestinian vehicle on purpose, killing four Palestinians. Students of the Gaza Islamic University called on all Palestinians to gather around the hospital where the Palestinian wounded were being taken. Thus the Intifada began. Since then it has been declared to have ceased, to be over, to have been split into the first and the second, that there will be no third, but on the ground the honourable struggle of the Palestinian people continues. The Intifada began in 1987 and escalated in strength until 1991. Later in 1993, with the Oslo Accords the autonomous Palestinian Authority was recognised. Tensions fell for a while. Before the signing of the Oslo Accords, 1.162 Palestinians were killed by Israeli troops. During the same period, 160 Israeli soldiers were killed. Once the Intifada had begun, the Palestinians not only died but were hurt to the bottom of their hearts. Before receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, Isaac Rabin was known as the bone breaker for as defence minister he had said of the Palestinians we will break their legs so that they will never run again and we will break their hands so that they will never again throw sto nes. Soon afterwards, televisions around the world began showing how Israeli troops were breaking civilian Palestinians knees a nd elbows with stones. An organisation for the protection of children estimated that between 1988 and 1990, 23,600 to 29,900 Palestinian children were treated for bone fractures. 30 percent of these children were younger than 10 years old and 20 percent were younger than five. Broken bones set sooner or later and do not break again at the same spot. But miserable souls can never get to see the light and always follow darkness. In September 2000, Ariel Sharon went to the Masjid al-Aqsa with a giant army of bodyguards, despite foreseen consequences. The Intifada was reignited and violence escalated. During protests held on the very day Sharon went to the Masjid al-Aqsa Israeli police shot dead four Palestinian protestors. In another demonstration held the next day, Israeli police fired on peaceful protestors, killing 13 civilians. At the end of this process in 2005, Ariel Sharon and Mahmud Abbas signed a ceasefire in the Egyptian town of Sharm al-Sheikh. By the time the ceasefire was signed, a heavy price had been paid according to official Israeli data. According to the data, the period known as the Second Intifada lasted 1558 days. Palestinians carried out 20,406 attacks during this period. 138 of these attacks included 160 suicide bombers. 13,730 of these attacks were armed. 460 missile attacks were carried out. A total of 1,036 Israelis, of which 715 were civilians died as a result of these attacks. 7,054 Israelis were injured. The 143 suicide attacks left 513 Israelis dead and 3,380 injured. At the same time Israeli attacks killed between 3,336 and 3,592 Palestinians of whom 985 were civilians. 621 of the killed were not yet of age. Israel made 128,000 arrests on terrorism charges. Palestinians protected their broken honour and occupied land with stones against tanks and slings against aircraft. Israel continue to carry out assassinations as part of this war. Israel continues to build new settlements. Every Palestinian who protested these offences has been exposed to Israels unreasonable anger, use of disproportionate force and unrelenting persecution. But they have continued resisting and never given up on the Intifada. The student whose school had been shut down, the father whose shop burned down, the mother who saw her house demolished, the grandfather whose fields were trampled by tanks and the grandmother whose relatives graves were bombed from the air did not give up. The word intifada has meanings similar to resistance or uprising. But Intifada is not just a word. It is an important m ilestone in political sociology. Intifada means an honourable fight against oppression. Intifada means the stone defying the tanks and the sling defying the fighter plane. It means the barefooted child looking down on the general in a tank. It is a devastated city not giving in to the most modern army. It is the trial of a nation with hunger, thirst, poverty and despair. Intifada is hope never giving up. The Intifada is a blanket for the cold, a reassuring father for the fearful and a mother for the child going hungry. The Intifada is the future for the child covered by the smoke of gunpowder and a duty of the younger towards the elder. It is the responsibility of the parent towards the child. It is the only source of hope for a generation raised behind barricades. It is the medal for lives spent under siege. It is the night view lit up by Israeli missiles instead of moonlight. It is the answer of fields to bombs raining down at dawn. It is the resistance put up by the earth wall against the bulldozer. It is the ethics of the doctor who cannot cure the patient brought to hospital with phosphorus bomb burns. The Intifada is furthermore the response of human morality, national and cultural pride to real politics. The Intifada is the anger the innocent person feels towards the butcher, the knife and the uncaring east which licks the butchers knife. The Intifada is the shield against racist aggression which hides behind religious dogma. It is the refusal of an occupation which is justified with divine messages and spiritual texts. It is last respects being paid to those massacred. The Intifada will definitely come to an end one day. Many things will happen until that day comes. For example the Israeli army will withdraw from the lands it occupies. Israel will abandon all settlements founded unjustly on Palestinian land. Israel will give the right to return to all Palestinian immigrants and exiles. Israel will return to pre-1967 borders and officially recognise the Palestinian state with its capital in Jerusalem. The moment Israel has fulfilled all of its lawful obligations, the Intifada will end. For Palestine, the Intifada is the road to justice, freedom and peace. The Intifada is the torch the Palestinians have lit up in the darkness imposed by Israel. It is the heat of that flame which warms up the cold nights in refugee camps and in Israels painful torture rooms and dark dungeons. The Intifada is the expression of the necessity of every Palestinian to live and not die for their cause. It is the eye defying tear gas, the heart defying batons and reason defying cruelty. For this reason the Intifada is the wall which remains standing despite gaping bullet holes. It is the kite which shakes its tail in the wind, despite being caught in barbed wire. The Intifada is the fight of the true David against the Goliath.

NTFADA 25 YAINDA...
02 01 2013

Filistin halk ilk intifaday 1987 ylnn Aralk aynda balatmt ve henz bitirmedi. Aralk 1987 'de Gazze blgesinde bir srailli kamyoneti Filistinlileri tayan bir araca bilerek arpt ve drt Filistinli ld. Gazze slam niversitesi'ndeki renciler bunun ardndan btn Filistinlileri yarallarn gtrld hastanenin etrafnda toplanmaya ard. Bylece intifada balad. Arada bitti denilse de, durdu denilse de, birinci, ikinci denilse de, nc yok denilse de Filistin halknn onur sava ntifada devam ediyor. ntifada 1987 ylnda balad ve 1991 ylna kadar iddetini artrarak devam etti. Daha sonra Austos 1993te Norvete srailin "zerk Filistin Ynetimini tand Oslo Anlamas imzaland. Tansiyon bir sre iin dt. Oslo Anlamasnn imzalanmasnda nce btn srete top lam 1.162 Filistinli srail tarafndan katledildi. Ayn dnemde len srail askerlerinin says ise 160 idi. Ama ntifada baladnda Filistin halk sadece lmedi, yreinden, yreinin en derindeki yerinden de yaraland. zak Rabin Nobel Bar dl almasndan birka yl nce 1988 ylnda, henz Nobel ile deil de, kemikkran lakab ile tannrken, savunma bakan sfatyla Filistin halk iin bacaklarn kracaz bir daha koamayacaklar, ellerini kracaz bir daha ta atamayacaklar demiti. Ksa sre sonra dnya televizyonlar srailli askerlerin Filistinli sivillerin dizlerini ve dirseklerini talarla nasl krdklarn gsteren grntler yaynlad. ocuklar korumak iin kurulan bir sivil toplum kuruluu 1988 ve 1990 yllar arasnda 23.600 ila 29.900 arasnda ocuun kemik krlmas nedeniyle tbbi yardm aldn tespit etti. Bu ocuklarn %30u 10 yandan kkt. Hatta %20si 5 yandan kkt. Krlan kemikler er ya da ge kaynar ve asla bir daha ayn yerden asla krlmaz. Ama sefil ruhlar hibir zaman a kavuamaz, hep karanla kaar, nk ktan hep korkar. Ariel aron Eyll 2000de olas sonular nceden belli olduu halde dev bir koruma ordusuyla beraber Mescid-i Aksaya gitti. Bunun zerine ntifada atei yeniden alevlendi ve blgede iddet trmand. Daha aronun Mescid-i Aksaya gittii gn dzenlenen protesto gsterilerinde srail polisi drt Filistinliyi vurarak ldrd. Hemen ertesi gn dzenlenen baka bir gsteride de srail polisi barl gsteri yapan silahsz halka ate at ve 13 sivil gsterici can verdi. Bu srete ubat 2005te Msrn arm El -eyh kentinde, Mahmud Abbas ve Ariel aron arasnda atekes anlamas imzaland. Atekes anlamas imzalandnda son be ylda -resmi srail verilerine gre- kabark bir bilano vard. Bu verilere gre, ikinci ntifada diye de anlan bu be yllk dnem 1558 gn srd. Filistinliler bu evrede 20.406 saldr dzenledi. Bunlardan 138 adedinde 160 intihar komandosu kullanld. Ayrca sz konusu saldrlardan 13.730 adedi silahl saldr idi. Ondan baka 460 adet fze saldrs da gerekletirildi. Sz konusu saldrlarda 715i sivil olmak zere 1.036 srailli ldrld. Ayrca 7.054 srailli yaraland. Bu kapsamda yer alan toplam 143 intihar saldrsnda 513 srailli ldrld ve 3.380 srailli yaraland. Ayn dnemde srail saldrlarnda da 3.336 - 3.592 Filistinli ldrld. Bunlarn 985i sivildi. Onlarn 621i de henz reit bile deildi. srail terr sulamasyla 128.000 Filistinliyi tutuklad. Filistinliler inenen onurlarn ve kirlenen topraklarn tanka kar tala, uaa kar sapanla korudular. Bu savata srailin suikastlar devam ediyor. srail Filistin topraklarnda yerleimler kurmaya da devam ediyor. Bu saldrlar protesto eden her Filistinli ise srailin lsz fkesine, orantsz g kullanmna ve insafsz tepkisine maruz kald. Ama yine de direniine devam etti. ntifadadan asla vazgemedi. Okulu kapatlan renci, dkkn yaklan baba, evi yklan anne, tarlas tankla ezilen dede, akrabalarn mezar uakla bombalanan nine vazge emezdi. ntifada kelime itibariyle direni, ayaklanma ve benzeri anlamlara geliyor. Ama ntifada sadece bir kelime deil. ntifada gerekte siyaset sosyolojisinin ok nemli bir kilometre ta. ntifada onurun zulme kar sava anlamna geliyor. ntifada aslnda tan tanka, sapann uaa kafa tutmas anlamna geliyor. plak ayakl ocuun, tankn stndeki generale stten bakmasdr. Harap bir kentin en modern orduya teslim olmamasdr. Bir milletin alkla, susuzlukla, fakirlikle, yoklukla ve geleceksizlikle imtihan olmasdr. ntifada umudun asla teslim olmamasdr. ntifada yenin yorgandr, korkann sarlaca babasdr, yataa a giren ocuk iin annedir. ntifada barut kokan ocuk iin gelecektir ve byk iin ocuuna devidir. ntifada babann ocuuna sorumluluudur. Barikatlarda byyen nesillerin hayata dair tek hazinesidir. Kuatma altnda tkenen mrlerin madalyasdr. Gnden geen yldrmlarn yla deil, srail fzeleriyle aydnlanan pencerelerin manzarasdr. Tarlalarn afakta yaan bombalara cevabdr. Yklan kerpi evin boyasz duvarnn saldran buldozere bardr. Fosfor bombasndan yanklarla gelen hastaya are bulamayan umutsuz doktorun ahlakdr. Ayrca intifada insan ahlaknn, milletin onurunun, kltrn erefinin reel politikaya karldr. ntifada masum insann kasaba da, gamszl da, baa da fkesidir, ayrca gamszlktan kasabn ban yalayan inee nefretidir. nk ntifada dini dogmalarn arkasnda saklanan rk saldrganla kar duran kalkandr. lahi mesajlarla, ruhani metinlerle hakl gsterilmeye allan igalin rettidir. Katliamlarda ldrlenlere sayg duruudur. Velhasl ntifada bir gn muhakkak bitecek. Ama o gn gelinceye kadar pek ok ey olacak. rnein srail ordusu igal altnda tuttuu topraklardan ekilecek. Ayrca srail Filistin topraklarnda hakszca kurduu btn yerleimleri terk edecek. srail btn Filistinli gmenlere ve srgnlere yurduna dnme hakk verecek. Ayrca srail 1967 ylndaki snrlarna dnecek ve bakenti Kuds olan bamsz Filistin Devletini resmen tanyacak. srail hukuka kar bu sorumluluklarn yerine getirdiinde ntifada sona erecek. nk Filistin iin ntifada adalet, zgrlk ve bar iin yrnen patikann addr. En nihayetinde ntifada Filistin halknn srailin karanlnda yakt mealedir. O mealenin alevleri mlteci kamplarnda ve srailin ac dolu ikence tezghlarnda, strap dolu zindanlarnda korkuyla geen souk geceleri stan umuttur. ntifada her Filistinlinin davas iin lmek deil, ayakta kalmak zorunda olduunun ifadesidir. Gzn biber gazna, yrein asker copuna, akln vicdanszla barmasdr. O nedenle ntifada byk kurun deliklerine ramen ayakta duran duvardr. Takld tel rgye ramen kuyruu rzgrla salnan uurtmann telin dikenine tavrdr. nk ntifada hakikatte gerek Davut ile gerek Golyatn kavgasdr.

A BAD TIME FOR THE MIDDLE EAST

19 02 2013

The region is going through one of its most troubled periods The Middle East has never experienced long periods of stability. Things were always bloody in the Middle East and its streets were always dangerous places. But the Middle East had never experienced so much turbulence at once. In 2012 there were seven wars and four armed conflicts in the Middle East. 2013 inherited them all. It is possible that they will continue on into 2014. The overall conditions will have probably worsened by then. The international community has not developed the adequate reflexes to deal with these problems. The United Nations cannot become sufficiently active. It cannot take significant steps due to the present structure of the United Nations Security Council and its internal dynamics. There are no mechanisms geared towards problem solving. The only and practical option left to states is to make greater efforts to maximise their own interests. Syria: the worlds shame The bloody civil war in Syria has been on the agenda throughout 2012. It was also like that in 2011 and it will be the same in 2013. History has seldom witnessed a dictator who has so viciously attacked his own people. The Syrian state has been butchering Syrians since March 2011. The cities of Daraa, Homs and Hama have been levelled. An important portion of the country is ruined. The people of Syria are seeking refuge in neighbouring countries for fear of their lives. With the founding of the Free Syria Army in autumn 2011, the uprising in Syria has entered a second phase. The massacre which Assad and his man carried out under the guise of internal security operations drew a response and turned into a civil war. The civil war is continuing with intense violence and has reached Aleppo, which is the heart of the countrys economy and partly to the capital Damascus. It is the support of Moscow and Beijing which keeps the Baas dictatorship standing. Russia and China support Syria because they do not find the means of deposing Assad to be appropriate. This does not stop planes from bombing homes and tanks from razing schools in Syria. All opposition groups in Syria have managed to unite on common ground in November and have decided to act in coordination. But without external intervention, Assad will not hand over power to the people. Assad may try to spread the instability and humanitarian disaster he has caused to the immediate region, especially to Turkey and Lebanon. Uncertainty in Afghanistan continues ISAF is expected to pull troops from Afghanistan in 2014. In 2012 ISAF had handed over some of its bases to the Afghan army. Armed attacks and other violence continue unabated in Afghanistan. The USA has increased unmanned drone attacks against terrorist targets. Pakistan continues to live under the shadow of the uncertainty and violence in Afghanistan. Risk of civil war in Iraq Al-Qaeda and its derivatives still operate in Iraq. These organisations especially attack Shiite politicians and other Shiite targets. But the problem in Iraq is greater than this. For example, the sentencing of former vice president El Hashemi to death in abstentio and his seeking refuge in Turkey is an indicator of this. On the other hand, tensions are running high between the central government in Baghdad and the regional government in the north. Later in the process the Kurdish administration may react more strongly to Baghdad. Baghdad, on the other hand probably cannot increase pressure. There is a high possibility that the underground Sunni resistance may ignite again. If a regional conflict begins in Iraq, countries in the region will be pulled into it. If the Baghdad administration cannot prevent sectarian fighting in the country, it may find it difficult to continue its existence. Israel is always the same Benjamin Netanyahus victory in the latest Israeli elections show that the policies followed by Israel in recent years will c ontinue without losing force. For Netanyahu the future is all about Palestine and Iran. Throughout the campaigning period, Netanyahu had nothing else to tell the electorate. Following the killing of Al Jabari, head of Hamas military wing in 2012, tensions have been following a rising trend. Meanwhile, Palestines recognition as a non-voting observer member of the UN General Assembly was a most significant development. Israels construction of new settlements openly and illegally on Palestinian land shows that Netanyahu is determined to occupy Palestine inch by inch in 2013 and beyond. Although Hamas and al Fatah have become closer in Palestine, it is hardly a call for optimism. Qatars support and Egyptian mediation indicate that Israeli pressure may wane at least for a while. But to hope that this will be prolonged, for example into the second half of the year would be unrealistic. Critical times in Yemen In Yemen, al-Qaida is very powerful and influential. The part of the organisation which is effective in the Arab Peninsula uses southern Yemen as its base. Al-Qaeda proves this by the actions it undertakes in Yemen. The organisation has attacked a military parade in the capital Sanaa and has killed more than a hundred people. Yemen is riding before the prevailing winds of instability in the region. Libya may split up The time that has passed since the fall of Gaddafi has not brought Libya stability. Although the 20th of October, when Gaddafi was killed is taken to be the end of the war, in reality it has continued for at least eight more months. Violence in Libya continues. Opposition groups and militia refuse to lay down arms. Tribes do not trust each other. There are severe problems in the south of the country. That certain organisations can hit the American consulate in Bengasi has shown that even in its home town, the new regime did not have the power to protect Ambassador Stevens, or itself. The part of the country with the most underground resources has a tendency to split from the rest.

Algeria is also in the risk group The number of terrorist attacks in Algeria had been in decline. But the Maghreb division of al-Qaeda continues it ascendance in the country. The recent attach on the natural gas plant and the fiasco of the following rescue attempt gives an indication of the lay of the land. The Maghreb wing of al-Qaeda is effective in Mauritania, Mali and Niger. The recent attack shows that one should be concerned over Algeria. Lebanon is also having a troubled time under pressure from Syria. It seems that this year will be relatively less difficult for Iran. We may assume that Tehran has played its Strait of Hormuz trump well. The diplomatic, political and economic capital funded by Russia and China is probably lending strength to the regime in Iran which is tired by the sanctions imposed on it.

ORTA DOU N KT ZAMAN

30 01 2013

Blge tarihteki en skntl dnemlerinden birisini yayor Orta Dounun tarihi hibir zaman uzun istikrar dnemleri iermedi. Orta Douda zaman daima kanl idi. Orta Dounun sokaklar her zaman tehlikeli oldu. Ama Orta Dou bu kadar ok karmaay da her zaman bir arada yaamad 2012 ylnda Orta Douda yedi sava ve drt silahl ihtilaf yer alyordu. 2013 bunlarn tamamn miras ald. Muhtemelen 2014 ylnda da bunlar aynen devam edecek. Genel durum o zaman belki daha da ktleecek. nk uluslararas toplum bu sorunlarn hafifletilmesi iin gereken refleksleri gelitiremedi. Birlemi Milletler gereken etkin konuma geemiyor. Birlemi Milletler Gvenlik Konseyi mevcut yaps ve i dinamikleri nedeniyle nemli bir adm atamyor. 2013 ylnn 2012den ve 2011den farkl olmayaca kesin. nk sorun zmeye odaklanan herhangi bir yap veya mekanizma olumuyor. Bunun sonucunda her devlet iin geriye kalan tek ve pratik seenek, kendi karlarn maksimiz e etmek iin, daha byk gayret gstermek. Suriye; Btn dnyann ortak utanc Suriyede yaanan kanl i sava 2012 yl boyunca daima gndemde kald. 2011 ylnda da yleydi, 2013 ylnda da yle olacak . Kim ne derse desin, tarih kendi halkna ve byle hunharca saldran bir diktatr ok grmedi. Suriye devleti, Mart 2011den bu yana Suriyelileri mezbahadaki hayvanlar gibi boazlyor. Daraa, Humus ve Hamma yerle bir oldu. lkenin byk blm enkaza dnd. Suriyede halk cann kur tarmak iin komu lkelere snyor. 2011 ylnn sonbahar aylarnda kurulan zgr Suriye Ordusu (FSA) ile Suriyede ayaklanma bir sonraki aamaya geti. Balarda amdaki diktatrn ve adamlarnn i gvenlik harekt maskesi altnda yrtt katliam karlk grmeye balad ve i savaa dnt . ok yksek iddetle yryen i sava, lkenin ekonomisinin kalbi olan Halepe ve hatta ksmen bakent ama ulat. Baas diktatrln hala ayakta tutan Moskovann ve Pekinin destei. Moskova ve Pekin Suriyeyi Esadn gnderilmesi iin izlenen yntemi uygun grmedikleri iin destekliyorlar. Fakat bu durum yine de Suriyede uaklarn evleri, tanklarn okullar bombalamasn durdurmuyor. Suriyeli btn muhalif gruplar Kasm aynda asgari mterekte uzlamay baardlar ve ortak hareket etme karar aldlar. Ama kesinlikle d mdahale olmadan Bear Esad iktidar halkna teslim etmeyecek. Esad iinde bulunduu istikrarszl ve neden olduu insani dram blgedeki di er lkelere, zellikle Trkiye ve Lbnana yaymaya alabilir. Afganistanda belirsizlik sryor Afganistanda ISAFn 2014te birlik ekmesi bekleniyor. Nitekim 2012 ylnda ISAF baz sleri Afganistan ordusuna devretti. Afganistanda silahl saldrlar ve eylemler hz kesmeden devam ediyor. ABD terrist hedeflere insansz hava aralar ile mdahalelerini artrd. P akistan da halen Afganistandaki belirsizliklerin ve iddet eylemlerinin etkisinde yaamaya devam ediyor. Irakta i sava riski var Irakta halen El Kaide rgt ve trevlerinin etkinlii var. rgtler zellikle ii siyasetilere saldryor ve dier ii hed efleri vuruyor. Ama Irak sorunlar bundan ok daha byk; rnein devlet bakan yardmcs El Haeminin makul olmayan biimde gyabnda ve savunmas alnmadan lme mahkm edilmesi ve El Haeminin Trkiyeye snmas bunun sadece bir ksm. Dier taraftan Badattak i merkezi ynetim ile kuzeydeki yerel ynetim arasndaki gerilim de ok yksek. Bu srecin devamnda Krt yerel ynetimi Badata daha sert tepki gsterebili r. Ama muhtemelen Badat Krt yerel ynetimine bundan sonra daha sert tepki gsteremez. Fakat yeraltndaki Snni direniin yeniden canlanmas olasl bir hayli yksek grnyor. Eer Irakta blgesel bir atma yaanrsa blge lkelerinin bu krizde vakumlanacana kesin gzyle baklabilir. ayet Badat lkede mezhep atmasnn nne geemezse, varln muhafaza etmekte zorluk yaayabilir. srail hep ayn srailde Binyamin Netantyahunun son seimlerden de zaferle kmas, srailin takip ettii politikalar nmzdeki yllarda da yumuatmadan izleyecei anlamna geliyor. Netanyahu iin gelecek sadece ran ve Filistin ile ilgili. Zaten Netanyahunun kampanya dnemi boyunca semenlerine ve lkesine anlatacak baka bir konusu da yoktu. 2012de Hamasn askeri kanadnn yneticisi Al Jaabarinin ldrlmesinin ardndan gerilim yeniden ykselme trendine girdi. Bu arada Birlemi Milletler Genel Kurulunun Filistine ye olmayan gzlemci lke stats vermesi ok nemli bir gelime idi. Uluslararas topl umun gzleri nnde srailin Filistin topraklarna srarla, hukuka aykr biimde yeni yerleimler kurmas da, Netanyahunun 2013 ylnda ve sonraki yllarda da Filistini santimetre santimetre igal edeceini gsteriyor. Her ne kadar Filistinde Hamas ve El Fetih yeniden yaknlasa da bu konuda iyimser olmak iin henz ok erken. Katarn destei ve Msrn arabuluculuu, Filistin zerindeki srail basksnn en azndan bir sre iin hafifleyeceini gsteriyor. Fakat bunun uzun soluklu olmasn, rnein yln ikinci yarsnda da devam etmesini beklemek fazla iyimserlik olarak grlebi lir.

Yemende Kritik Zaman Yemende El Kaidenin ok etkili ve gl olduu bir dnemdeyiz. rgtn Arap Yarmadasnda etkili olan ksm Yemenin gney ini s blgesi olarak kullanyor. Hatta El Kaide bunu Yemende gerekletirdii eylemlerle de ispat ediyor. El Kaide bakent Sanaada bir askeri resmigeit trenine saldrd ve yzden fazla insan ldrd. Yemen blgede esen sert istikrarszlk rzgrlarnn etkisinde. Libya Blnebilir Muammer Kaddafinin devrilmesinin zerinden geen zaman henz Libyaya istikrar getirmedi. Muammer Kaddafinin ldrld 20 Ekim gn savan sonu olarak grlse de, sava bu tarihin zerine en az sekiz ay daha devam etti. Libyada iddet halen devam ediyor. Muhalif gruplar ve milisler silah brakmay ret ediyor. Kabileler birbirine gvenmiyor. zellikle lkenin gney kesimlerinde ok ciddi sorunlar var. Baz rgtlerin Bingazide ABD Konsolosluunu vurabilmesi de, Libyada yeni rejimin en kuvvetli olduu kentte dahi, ABDnin bile Bykeli Stevensi, yani kendisini koruyamayacan kantlyordu. Ayrca lkenin yer alt kaynaklarnn olduu blge, lkenin geriye kalanndan ayrlma eilimine sahip. Cezayir de risk grubunda Cezayirde terrist saldrlarn says azalma eilimindeydi. Ama El Kaidenin Magrep lkelerinde faaliyet gsteren blm lkedeki etkinliini artrmaya devam ediyor. Nitekim son doal gaz tesisine gerekleen saldr ve devamndaki kanl kurtarma operasyonu fiyaskosu genel bir fikir veriyor. El Kaidenin Magrep lkelerinde faaliyet gsteren blm Moritanya, Mali ve Nijerde de etkili. Son gerekleen saldr, Cezayir iin kaygl olmak gerektiine iaret ediyor. Dier taraftan blge lkelerinden Lbnanda Suriyenin basks altnda tedirgin bir dnem geiriyor. ran iin de grece daha az zor bir yldayz gibi grnyor. zellikle rann Hrmz Boaz kozunu iyi ve doru oynadn varsayabiliriz. Muhtemelen Rusyann ve inin temin ettii di plomatik, siyasi ve iktisadi lojistik, ambargo ve yatrmlar yznden bunalan Tahran rejimine cesaretini korumas iin g veriyor.

TIME SEEMS TO HAVE STOPPED IN IRAQ

21 02 2013

A bad year ends a bad year begins for Baghdad Iraq cannot leave the poor situation it has found itself in. 2012 was no different in the country than the last decade. The coming years will probably be no better. Iraq has finished a bad year full of uncertainties and entered one which does not promise to bet better. The two important topics in Iraq are chronic instability and the relentless power fights. Every year ends as it begins in Iraq. Every year starts with violence and ends with violence. The vicious circle of violence is destroying Iraq piece by piece. mass arrests, unsolved murders, serial attacks, bombings, torture and execution summarise every year in Iraq. The power fights and instability in Iraq do not allow for a lapse in violence. They provoke the violence. In January 2012 alone there were at least 560 identified and recorded cases of political violence in Iraq. Political violence is a new term. It is a practical way of calling someone a militia member, militant, terrorist or fighter. Violence which serves political purposes sounds more innocuous and acceptable. The chaos in Iraq may then be called political disorder. Instead we might delicately call it a lack of stability or a stability gap. Whatever it is called, Iraq spent January and the remaining months of 2012 in the same cycle of violence. Baghdads mistakes In 2012 Iraq was not able to overcome any of its problems. Most of them became worse. The preservation of Iraqs territorial integrity is becoming more difficult and Baghdad seems responsible. Baghdad either cannot or will not take the steps necessary to preserve its territorial integrity. Baghdad ought to have founded stronger relations with the Kurdish regional administration, which it did not. Baghdad ought to have approached Erbil with mutual understanding, agreement and cohabitation in mind. Baghdad could not or would not do this. Baghdad should not have allowed for an armed standoff with Erbil or allowed any disagreement to rise to this degree. But it let things come so far. Baghdad should not have insisted on the differences between the parties. Baghdad did not evaluate its responsibilities well. The fighting between the Iraqi army and the pashmarga groups in Northern Iraq was the sad result of Baghdads unsuccessful policies. If US based transnational companies Chevron, Exxon Mobile and probably others can deal and settle directly with the administration in the north, the problem is bigger than can be solved by sending soldiers to fight the pashmarga groups. Baghdad needs to become involved in processes it cannot outright prevent. But it seems that until Baghdad gains enough experience in this respect, it will be too late and the movie will be over. Iraq has always resembled a chessboard. Religions, cultures, civilisations, sects, nations and states have clashed with each other throughout Mesopotamian history. Violence is the chronic problem Iraq has experienced violence throughout its history. It was only the agent of violence which changed according to the historical period. More openly put there was always the hunter and the hunted in Iraq. The conflict between the hunter and the hunted has always included violence. The hunter and the hunted sometimes switched places but the violence remained. According to official statements, the volume of violence in Iraq is on the fall. Accordingly, Iraq experienced the most violence between 2006 and 2008. That the Arab League could hold a meeting in Baghdad and the group of 5+1 on Iran could meet there were significant developments. In previous years one could not have imagined holding such high level meetings in Iraq. The international press has started paying more attention to Syria. The Arab Spring has also been a popular news item. There have not been reports of great cases of violence in Iraq in recent years. But it must be accepted that violence was so great in Iraq for so many years that it could not have been maintained at that level. Despite the falling levels, contracting volume and less frequent reporting 4,348 civilians were killed in violence taking place during the first eleven months of 2012. This figure comes down to an average of 395 people a month. This in turn means that

more than 10 civilians are killed every day. The monthly toll of 395 people in 2012 signals a 25 percent rise over the previous year. It should also be borne in mind that Iraqi figures are not always fully reliable. It is a very tough time for Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri el Maliki. In order to maintain power el Maliki has been keeping the army and interior security forces under his absolute control. Naturally the army, the police and the intelligence organisations are the source and guara ntee of el Malikis power. For el Maliki the high court and the high electoral commission are secretarial offices. From this perspective, one might claim that not just in the last few years but for the last few decades there has been no significant change in Iraq. The hunt still goes on. International organisations Amnesty International and the Human Rights Watch claim that a great abuse of the rights of opponents of the regime are committed in Iraq. There is no chance that any person or organisation which is found disturbing by el Maliki can survive in Iraq. This includes the press. Mass arrests have become the norm in Iraqi politics. For example, the home and offices of Iraqs Sunni Finance Mini ster Rafi Isavi were raided. Isavi announced that 150 of his staff and security were arrested. According to Isavi, Maliki carries out such actions in order to weaken his opponents. This situation disturbs many circles. Therefore the Iraqi parliament has proposed a law which forbids el Maliki from serving as prime minister for a third term. According to the new regulation the president, prime minister and the speaker of parliament can serve for at most two terms. Nuri el Maliki may have the high court rule against the law. But this would only cause increased tensions and violence in the country. Many economic woes Although certain US based analysis have Iraq becoming the second largest exporter of oil in the world in coming years, Iraq is yet to recover. The economy and the substructure in Iraq are in shambles. Oil output is on the rise but Baghdad is yet to reach targeted figures. Iraq needs more time to reach the capacity utilisation figures it targets. Nevertheless, Iraq has for the first time exceeded the pre-war export figures for the first time since the war. In 2012 Iraq increased its daily exports to 2.6 million barrels. Thus Iraq has earned around USD 100 billion in export revenue. Iraqis in the grip of poverty This figure must come as a surprise. For Iraq does not appear to be a country which has export earnings of USD 100 billion as it looks in newspapers and news coverage. In Iraq, a significant part of the population still live in pre-industrial circumstances. Most Iraqis still lack regular access to healthy drinking water. A major part of the population is yet to be served by a sanitation system. Iraq can only produce a third of the power it requires. Official statistics put unemployment in Iraq at 16 percent. However, the UN claims that only 34 percent of the workforce has a job. The UN also claims that a fourth of the countrys population, seven million people live in abso lute and chronic poverty. The data display the condition of children in Iraq. Accordingly 3.5 million children live in poverty in Iraq. 1.5 million people who are younger than five years old suffer from malnutrition. Three million children lack access to healthcare. In Iraq 100 children die every day as a result of inadequate nutrition, care and hygiene. This is a humanitarian issue which every country with historical, national, civil and religious links with Iraq should take responsibility for. Iraq in 2013 It is not difficult to make some predictions about 2013. It is hair raising and heart shattering but we know that approximately 36,500 children will die due to poverty in 2013. Between 3,500 and 4,000 civilians will be killed violently. The figure may be slightly more or less. Some foreign troops will also be killed. Baghdad will once more make USD 100 billion in export revenue. There will be two chaotic situations and a crisis. Baghdad will make things work somehow. 2013 may be a difficult period for territorial integrity. The misguided policies Baghdad has followed may result in northern Iraq splitting away. Baghdad is not encouraging the north for greater integration with any of its steps. Baghdad may have to watch as the north and the south of the country split away. Baghdad has to prove to the rest of the country that it stands at an equal distance from all sections in 2013. If the central government interprets the situation correctly, it may give both the north and the south of the country new and valuable reasons for unity. Certain foreign policy issues which at present do not pose a problem for Iraq may suddenly present high risk. The escalation of the civil war in Syria will increase the number of refugees coming to Iraq and will cause further instability. Iraq is in a position to be directly affected by other regional tensions. Iraq has to be vigilant over any development coming from any point of the compass. Summarily put, Iraq should not make enemies. The number of those who like the Baghdad admi nistration, domestically as well as abroad, is dwindling due to the formers misguided policies. Iraq may come to elect a new head of state in 2013. Developments in Talabanis condition may change the course of events in I raq. The new head of state may serve in deputy position or be appointed. In any case the risk will be great. Iraq will remain a chessboard. Those countries which are prepared for surprises and which can take initiative stand to wind. Over Iraq everyone will be prepared to act rather than to react.

IRAK N SANK ZAMAN DURDU

06 02 2013

Badat iin kt bir yl bitti, kt bir yl balad Irak iine dt kt durumdan kurtulamyor. Irak iin 2012 yl son 10 yldan farkl gemedi. Muhtemelen nmzdeki yllar da daha iyi olmayacak. Irak ok kt ve belirsizliklerle dolu bir yl bitirdi ve ondan daha iyi olmayan bir yla girdi. Irakta en nemli iki konu bal kronik istikrarszlk ve lsz g mcadeleleri... Irakta her yl balad gibi bitiyor. Irakta her yl iddetle balyor ve iddetle sona eriyor. iddetin ksr dngs Irak para para yok ediyor. Irakta kitlesel tutuklamalar, faili mehuller, seri saldrlar, bombalamalar, ikence ve infazlar her yln ksa bir zeti gibi. Irakta lsz g mcadelesi ve istikrarszlk iddetin azalmasn nlyor. Hatta tam aksine iddetin artmasn kkrtyor. Sadece 2012 ylnn Ocak aynda Irakta tespit edilebilen ve kayda giren- en az 560 siyasi iddet eylemi oldu.

Siyasi iddet eylemi yeni uydurulan terimlerden... Birilerine milis, militan, terrist veya sava dememenin pratik yolu Siyaset amac ile yaplan iddet eylemi sanki biraz daha masum, biraz daha kabul edilebilir bir olgu gibi sunulabiliyor. Buna baknca Iraktaki kaos iin de siyasi dzensizlik demek de uygun olabilir. Onun yerine nazike istikrar eksiklii veya istikrar a da denilebilir. Ama Irak 2012 ylnda Ocak ayn da iddet sarmalnda geirdi, sonraki aylar da, Aralk ayna kadar ayn iddet ksr dngsnde yaad. Badatn Hatalar Irak 2012 ylnda beklendii gibi hibir sorununu zemedi. Aksine daha da arlatrd. Irakn toprak btnlnn korunmas giderek daha zor bir hale geliyor ve Badat bunun sorumlusu gibi grnyor. Badat snrlarn ve toprak btnln korumak iin atmas gereken admlar atmyor veya atamyor. Badatn Krt yerel ynetimi ile ilikilerini daha salkl bir zemine oturtmas gerekirdi. Badat bunu baaramad. Badat Erbil ile ilikilerini karlkl anlay, mutabakat gereklilii ve birlikte yaama azmi zerine kurmalyd. Badat bunu da yapmad veya yapamad. Badat asla Erbil ile arasnda silahl gerilim olmasna msaade etmemeli ve hibir anlamazln bu noktaya ulamasna zemin salamamalyd. Badat bunu da yapt. Badatn gr ayrlklarn trmandrmamas gerekiyordu. Badat tad sorumluluklar doru deerlendiremedi. Badat iin Irak Ordusu ile Kuzey Irakl pemerge gruplarnn atmaya girmesi, baarsz politikalarnn hazin bir sonucuyd u. ABD kkenli okuluslu Chevron, Exxon Mobile -ve elbette bakalar- kuzeydeki yerel ynetimle dorudan gryorsa, anlayorsa ve ortak alma yapabiliyorsa, Badat iin sorun pemerge gruplarnn nne asker dizmekle zlemeyecek mahiyette demektir. Badatn nleyemedii srelere mdahil, o da olmazsa dahil olmay renmesi gerekiyor. Ama anlald kadaryla Badat bu tecrbeyi edininceye kadar, zaten i iten gemi olacak ve film bitecek. Irak daima bir lkeden ok satran tahtasna benzedi. Dinler, kltrler, medeniyetler, tarikatlar, milletler ve devletler Mezopotamyada tarih boyunca arptlar. Kronik Sorun iddet Irak tarihinde daima iddet vard. Irakta dnemlere gre deien sadece iddetin uygulaycs oldu. Daha sarih bir ifadeyle Irakta daima av ve avc oldu. Av ve avc arasnda mcadele daima iddet ierdi. Bazen av ve avc yer deitirdi, ama iddet ve avclk her zaman devam etti. Resmi aklamalara gre, Iraktaki iddetin hacmi azalyor. Buna gre Irak iin iddetin en youn olduu dnem 2006 ve 2008 yllar arasndaki dnemdi. Nihayetinde Arap Liginin Badatta toplant yapabilmesi, ayrca Birlemi Milletler Gvenlik Konseyinin ran konusundaki 5+ 1 toplantsn yine bu kentte yapabilmesi ok nemli gelimelerdi. Gerekten de daha nceki yllarda bylesine nemli toplantlarn Irakta yaplmas hayal dahi edilemezdi. Uluslararas basn kurulular asndan Suriye de daha popler hale geldi. Ayrca Arap Bahar da dnya basn iin daha cazi p. Fakat son birka ylda gerekten de Irak mahreli ok byk iddet haberleri duyulmad. Ama unu da kabul etmek gerekir; Irakta iddetin dozu uzun yllar boyunca o kadar yksek bir dzeydeydi ki, bunun srdrlebilmesi imknszd. Ama buna ramen -den doza, azalan hacme ve giderek seyrekleen haberlere ramen- Irakta 2012 ylnn ilk on bir aynda 4.348 sivil iddet eylemlerinde hayatn kaybetti. Bu rakam aylk ortalamada 395 kiiye d enk geliyor. Yani her gn ondan fazla sivil ldrld. 2012 ylna ait olan ayda ortalama 395 kii, bir nceki yla kyasla %25 n ispetinde bir arta da tekabl ediyor. unu da belirtmekte fayda var; Sz konusu lke Irak olduunda her say her zaman inanlr deildir. Her ne olursa olsun Irak Babakan Nuri El Maliki iin ok zor bir dnem. Nuri El Maliki iktidarn pekitirmek iin lkesinin ordusunu, i gvenliini ve milli gvenliini mutlak hkimiyetinde tutuyor. Doal olarak ordu, polis ve istihbarat organlar Nuri El Malikinin gcnn hem kayna hem de gvencesi konumunda. Nuri El Maliki iin lkesinin yksek mahkemesi de, yk sek seim komisyonu da, adeta sekreteryas gibi. Bu adan bakldnda, Irakta sadece son birka ylda deil, son birka on ylda nemli bir deiim olmad iddia edilebilir. Geen on yllar Irakta av ve avc olanlarn yer deitirmesini salad. Ama avclk deimedi. Amnesty International ve Human Rights Watch uluslararas rgtler Irakta muhalif olanlara kar muazzam insan haklar ihlalleri yapldn savunuyorlar. Irakta Nuri El Malikinin rahatsz olduu hi kimsenin ve kuruluun ayakta kalma olasl yok. Buna basn da dahil. Kitlesel tutuklamalar Iraktaki siyaset anlaynn bir paras haline geldi. rnein Irakn Snni Maliye Bakan Rafi savinin evine ve ofisine baskn yapld. Bakan savi, 150 kadar gvenlik grevlisi ve personelinin tutuklandn aklad. saviye gre, Maliki rakiplerini zayflatmak iin bu tr uygulamalar kastl ve planl olarak yapyor. Kukusuz bu durum pek ok evreyi de rahatsz ediyor. O nedenle Irak Meclisi, Nuri El -Maliki'nin nc dnem yeniden babakanlk grevine seilmesini engelleyen kanunu kabul etti. Yeni yasal dzenlemeye gre Irakta cumhurbakan, meclis bakan ve babakan seil enler 2 dnem grev yapabilecekler. Nuri El Maliki bu yasay yksek mahkemede iptal ettirebilir. Ama bu giriim sadece lkede gerilimin ve iddetin artmasna neden olur. Ekonomide sorun ok Her ne kadar ABDnin baz analizleri Irak nmzdeki yllarda dnyann ikinci byk petrol ihracats olarak gsterse de, Irak henz kendisini toparlayamad. Irakta hem ekonomi hem de altyap perian halde. Irakn petrol retiminde art salanyor. Ama Badat henz hedeflenen rakamlara ulaamad. Badat kapasite kullanmnda ulamay ngrd rakamlar yakalamak iin zamana ihtiya duyuyor. Fakat y ine de Irak savatan bu yana ilk defa petrol ihracatnda sava ncesi dnemindeki rakamlar at. Irak 2012 ylnda gnlk petrol ihracatn 2,6 mily on varil seviyesine ulatrd. Irak bu sayede 100 milyar USD dzeyinde ihracat geliri elde etti. Irakllar Sefaletin Penesinde Bu rakam hemen herkes iin artc olmal. nk Irak ne haber bltenlerinde ne de gazete sayfalarnda yer ald haliyle 100 milyar USD geliri olan bir lke grnmne sahip deil. Irakta halen nfusun nemli bir ksm sanayi ncesi toplum artlarnda yayor. Irakllarn byk ksm halen dzenli ve salkl ime suyuna eriimden uzakta yayor. Irak halknn nemli bir blm hala kanalizasyonla tanmad . Irak ihtiya duyduu elektriin sadece te birini retebiliyor. Irakta resmi isizlik rakam %16 seviyesinde. Ama Birlemi Milletler rgtnn verilerine gre, Irakta alma anda olanlarn sadece %34nn ii var. Yine ayn kaynan verilerine gre Irakta yedi milyon insan -lke nfusunun drtte biri- mutlak ve kronik fakirlikle yayor. Birlemi Milletlerin verileri Irakta ocuklarn ierisinde bulunduu artlar da btn plaklyla ortaya koydu. Buna gre Irakta 3,5 milyon ocuk -Irak llerine gre dahi- fakir bir hayat sryor. Be yandan kk 1,5 milyon ocuk yetersiz beslenmeden muzdarip yayor. Ayrca 3 milyon ocuk salk hizmetlerinden ve bakmdan yoksun bulunuyor. Irakta her gn 100 ocuk bakmszlktan, yetersiz beslenmekten ve pislikten l yor. Bu konu Irak ile tarihi, dini, milli, medeni ve insani ilikisi olan her lkenin muhakkak el atmas gereken bir konu olarak kabul edilmeli. Irak ve 2013 2013 yl iin baz tahminlerde bulunmak ok zor deil. Tyler rpertici, i actc, ama Irakta ierisinde bulunduumuz yl da da tahminen 36.500 ocuun perian halde leceini biliyoruz! Muhtemelen Irakta bu yl ierisinde de 3.500 -4.000 sivil daha lr. Belki biraz daha fazla, belki biraz daha az Biraz da yabanc asker Badat yine 100 milyar USD para kazanr ki kaos, bir kriz Badat yine ileri yrtr.

2013 ylnda Irak toprak btnl konusunda gerekten zorlu bir dnemden geebilir. nk Badatn izledii yanl politikalar Kuzey Irakn kopmas sonucunu dourabilir. Badat att hibir admla ve hibir aklamasyla Kuzey Iraka daha fazla entegrasyon ii n cesaret vermiyor. Badat bunun devamnda, hem kuzeyin hem de gneyin kendisini terk etmesini izleyebilir. Badat 2013 yln doru deerlendiri p lkenin btn kesimleri ile eit mesafede olduunu ispat etmek zorunda. Badat bu yl doru yorumlarsa hem k uzeye hem de gneye btnlk iin yeni nedenler, deerli gerekeler sunabilir. Irak asndan u anda onun iin riskli grnmeye baz d politika konular ok ciddi bir biimde sorun haline gelebilir. Suriyede i savan bymesi Iraka ynelen mltecilerin saysn artrabilecei gibi, istikrarszln pekimesine de yol aabilir. Ayrca Irakn blgesel dier gerilimlerden birinci derecede etkilenecek lke olaca kesin gibi grnyor. Dolaysyla Irak pusulann gsterdii her istik amette meydana gelecek oluumlar, deiimler ve dnmler karsnda tetikte olmak zorunda. En zet haliyle, Irakn artk asla dman edinmemesi g erekiyor. nk Badatn yanl politikalar Badat sevenlerin saysn -hem ieride hem de darda- azaltyor. Muhtemelen Irak 2013 yl ierisinde yeni bir devlet bakan seimine sahne olabilir. Talabaninin durumu ile ilgili gelimeler Irakn nabzn etkileyebilir. Belki yeni devlet bakan vekletle veya atama ile belirlenir. Ama her durumda risk iin ok byk denileb ilir. Her durumda Irak yine satran tahtas olarak kalacaktr. Ama srprize en hazrlkl lkeler ve hamlede ncelik alabilen lkeler daima daha kazanl kabilir. O nedenle Irak konusunda herkes reaksiyondan nce, aksiyon hazrlnda olacaktr.

THE PROSPECT OF A THIRD INTIFADA

20 03 2013

Palestinian detainee Arafat Jeradat dies in an Israeli prison, focusing world attention once more on Palestine. Tensions are once more rising in the Middle East. The death of a Palestinian detainee Arafat Jeradat in an Israeli prison might lead to another uprising. There are concerns that a third Intifada might begin in the Palestinian territories. The Palestinian Arafat Jeradat was 30 years old. He died in prison in Israel. He had two fractured ribs when he died. The reason why his two ribs were broken is because he was being tortured and died as a result, according to the Palestinians. Israeli sources state that Arafat Jeradat had an heart attack and his two ribs were broken as a result of first aid compressions. We will never learn how Arafat Jeradat ended up with two broken ribs. However, we may yet learn about other things. According to Israeli Foreign Minister Spokesman Lior Ben Dor Israeli prisons house those who have attempted or carried out terrorist attacks against Israel. But according to Palestinians, Israel incarcerates people who engage in very small and ordinary acts of protest. In 2010, the Israel based human rights organisation B'Tselem had announced that prisoners were being kept in cells without windows in Israel. B'Tselem had also reported that the cells were frequently given very warm or very cold air, that the toilets stank and that the beds were dirty in Israeli prisons. From this perspective Arafat Jeradats death looks suspicious. the world press has been reporting that in Israel an ordinary act of protest, or throwing a stone is considered an act of violence. The perpetrators of an innocent protest may be jailed for a long time. Thus detention and arrest is used as a method of punishment. Many Palestinian prisoners do not know what they are being charged with. As Israel keeps them under detention or arrest for a very long time it prevents them from defending themselves or a defence being prepared for them by not stating what they are being charged with. Nevertheless, Foreign Minister Spokesman Lior Ben Dor claims that the procedures his country uses during questioning are compatible with international laws, rules and norms. There are however other claims that 200 Palestinians have died suspiciously in Israeli jails since 1967. Until the incident, political tension in Palestine seemed to be waning. But demonstrations were held in the West Bank upon news of Arafat Jeradats death. Israeli police responded with tear gas to demonstrators in Ramalla h. Israeli police also intervened on demonstrations in Tulkarim, El Arrub, Beit Ummar and Hebron using tear gas and plastic bullets. At least 20 people were injured. To protest the death of Arafat Jeradat, approximately 4,600 arrestees and convicts in Israeli prisons held a day of hunger strikes. There may be further waves of protest in Palestine, both in the West Bank and in Gaza. A detail which should not be missed is now that Palestine is a non-voting observer member of the UN General Assembly, it has the right to take the Jeradat incident before the International Criminal Court in The Hague. That Palestinian authorities have asked for an international investigation into the death of Jeradat strengthens expectations to this end. According to the claims of the Palestinians Arafat Jeradat was taken into custody for no apparent reason. He was tortured repeatedly and died, unable to take it any longer. They also claim that before taken into custody Jeradat, who is officially supposed to have died of a heart attack, had no health issues. A new period of tension between Palestine and Israel seems inevitable following this event.

NC NTFADA HTMAL
06 03 2013

Filistinli tutuklu Arafat Ceradatn srail cezaevinde lmesi dnyann dikkatini yeniden Filistine evirdi

Orta Dou'da gerilim yeniden ykseliyor. Arafat Ceradat adndaki Filistinli tutuklunun srailde cezaevinde lmesi yeni bir a yaklanma sreci balatabilir. Filistin blgelerinde nc bir intifadann balamasndan endie ediyor. Filistinli Arafat Ceradat 30 yandayd. srailde cezaevinde ld. ldnde iki kaburgas krkt. Arafat Ceradatn iki kaburgas neden krkt Filistinlilere gre Arafat Ceradat cezaevinde ikence gryordu ve bunun sonucunda ld. sraillilere gre, Arafat C eradat kalp krizi geirdi ve doktorlar ona kalp masaj uygularken, iki kaburgas krld. Arafat Ceradatn kaburgalarnn nasl krldn asla renemeyeceiz. Ama yine de baka eyleri renebiliriz. srail Dileri Bakanl Szcs Lior Ben Dora gre, srail cezaevlerinde dmanca ve terrist saldrlar dzenleyen tutuklularn bulunuyor. Ama Filistinlilere gre, ok sra dan ve olaan kk protesto eyleminde bulunan masum insanlar da srailde hapse atlyor. yle ya da byle B'Tselem adl ve srail merkezli insan haklar rgt, 2010 ylnda srailde tutuklularn zellikle penceresiz hcrelerde tutulduunu aklamt. B'Tselem ayrca tutuklularn konulduu hcrelere ar scak ya da souk hava verildiini de ifa etmiti. B'Tselem srail cezaevlerinde tuvaletlerin koktuu, yataklarn da kirli olduu raporunda belirtmiti. Dolaysyla resmin btnne baknca Arafat Ceradatn lm daha pheli grnyor. Dnya basnnda yer aldna gre, srailde sradan bir protesto eylemi ya da ta atmak iddet kullanlan eylem kabul ediliyor. Masum bir protesto eyleminin failleri uzun sre hapiste tutuluyor. Bu ekilde gzalt ve tutukluluk bir cezalandrma yntemi haline gel iyor. Pek ok Filistinli tutuklu ne ile sulandklarn dahi bilmiyorlar. srail onlar uzun sre gzaltnda veya tutuklu tutarken, ne ile suladn da sylemeyerek, savunma hazrlamalarn ve kendilerini savunmalarn da engelliyor. Fakat yine de Dileri Bakanl Szc Lior Ben Dor, lkesinin sorgulama srasnda kulland yntemlerin kesinlikle uluslararas yasalara, kurallara ve normlara uygun olduunu iddia ediyor. Ama yine de baka bir iddiaya gre srailde cezaevlerinde 1967 ylndan bu yana 200 Filistinli hayatn kaybetti. Bu olaya kadar Filistinde siyasi tansiyon dme eilimindeydi. Ama Arafat Ceradatn lmnn ardndan Bat eria'da gsteriler yapld. srail polisi Ramallah'taki gsterilere gazla mdahale etti. Ayrca Tulkarim, El Arrub, Beit Ummar ve Hibrondaki gsterilere de mdahale eden srail polisi yine gaz ve plastik mermi kulland. En az 20 kii yaraland. Arafat Ceradatn lm zerine srail cezaevlerindeki yaklak 4.600 tutukl u ve hkml bir gnlk alk grevi yapt. Dolaysyla Filistinde bundan sonra yeni eylem dalgalar gndeme gelebilir. Bu durum h em Bat eriada hem de Gazze eridinde yaanabilir. Elbette Arafat Ceradat konusunda gzden asla kamamas gereken ok nemli bir detay var; Filistin Birlemi Milletler'de ye olmayan gzlemci devlet stats sahibi olduu iin Ceradat olayn Laheydeki Uluslararas Ceza Mahkemesine tama hakkna sahip. Nitekim Filistinli yetkililerin Arafat Ceradat konusunun uluslararas soruturulmasn istemesi, bu yndeki kanaati ku vvetlendiriyor. Filistin tarafnn iddiasna gre Arafat Ceradat susuz yere gzaltna alnd. Bu srete defalarca ikence grd ve nihayetinde daha fazla dayanamad ve hayatn kaybetti. Ayn iddiaya gre kalp krizinden ld aklanan Arafat Ceradatn gzaltna alnmadan nce hibir salk sorunu da yoktu! Bundan sonrasnda Filistinde ve srailde uzun sreli yeni bir gerginlik dnemi kanlmaz grnyor.

ERMENLERN KARA KADER

02 01 2013

Ermenistan Cumhurbakan Serj Sarkisyan, Suriye'de bulunan Ermenilere yardm edeceklerini aklad Ermenistan Cumhurbakan Serj Sarkisyan, Suriye'de bulunan Ermenilere yardm edeceklerini aklad, ama burada Erivan yine olaan pheli Hatta imdi eskisinden daha pheli Son sz bata sylemek her zaman iyi deildir. Hatta nadiren doru kabul edilir. Ama drst olmak nemlidir. Drstlk her zaman beenilmez, takdir de edilmez. Ama drst olmak gerekten iyidir. Gerek u ki; Ermenistan Suriye Ermenilerini kullanmaya alyor. Onlar istismar etmeye alyor. Ermenistan adn ald milletin fertlerini kendi emellerine oyuncak etmeye alyor. Onlarn aresizliinden faydalanmaya gayret ediyor. Onlarn korkularndan fayda umuyor. Ermenistan Cumhurbakan Sarkisyan Moskovada yapt aklamada aynen yle dedi; Afganistan, ran'da artan tansiyon ve Sur iye'deki durum bizlere durumun iyimser olmadn gsteriyor. Suriye'de yaayan byk bir Ermeni toplumu var. Binlerce Ermeni, Suriye toplumunun ayrlmaz bir paras. Orada bulunan Ermenilere yardm edeceiz. Sarkisyan kendisini bylece gl ve muktedir gstermeye gayret ediyor. Ayrca Erivan bu yndeki aklamalaryla kendisini blgesel aktr gibi gstermek istiyor. Erivan hkmetinin bu abasnn ne derecede baarl olduu pheli Ama Sarkisyann szlerine inananlar byk bir hayal krkl bekliyor. Sarkisyann Hayali; kinci srail Sarkisyan Suriyedeki btn Ermenileri Ermenistana aryor. Bu ar nesnel olarak iyi ve olumlu bir ar gibi grlebili r. Ama Sarkisyan herhalde gizliden gizliye de bu arsnn ciddiye alnmasndan korkuyordur. nk Ermenistann gerekte bu kadar gmene bakmasna, onlarn rahatn salamasna imkan yok. Erivann byle bir olana olsa kendi lkesindeki yaam artlarn iyiletirir. Ermenistanda isizlik srekli artyor. Ayrca gda fiyatlar da trmanyor. Ermenistanda aileler toplam gelirlerinin %52sini gda iin harcyor. Geriye kalan para ile de kira ve dier zorunlu giderler karlanyor. Sarkisyan kendi halknn geimini temin edecek durumda deilken, Suriyedeki Ermenileri bouna Ermenistana armyor. Says eitli tahminlere gre 80.000 ila 120.000 arasndaki Suriye Ermenileri ok farknda deil, ama Sarkisyann onlar iin zel bir plan v ar. Sarkisyan bir defa her eyden nce Suriye Ermenilerinin Ermenistana beraberinde byk servet getirmelerini umuyor. Sarkisyan en kt ihtimalde dahi Suriye Ermenilerinin durumu Ermenistandaki Ermenilerden iyi olduu iin burada bir kayp olasl grmyor. Sarkisyann Suriye

Ermenilerini hangi niyetle Ermenistana ard veya onlardan ne bekledii, Ermeni devlet havayollarnn am-Erivan biletlerine hemen zam yapmasndan belli! Nasl bir devlet hem insanlar kendisine snmaya arp, hem de onlarn alaca biletlere zam yapar? ok byk olaslkla Sarkisyan lkesine ynelik bir nfus hareketi salarsa, hemen ardndan ya diasporaya yardm ars yapacak ya da bata Moskova olmak zere iyi karland btn adresleri dolap destek isteyecek. stelik dnyadaki Ermeni diasporasnn Erivan daki otoriter ve otokrat rejimi beslemek iin yapt balar artrmak iin bylece d aha byk bir sebebi olacak. Ama muhakkak bununla da yetinmeyecek. nk Sarkisyann asl hedefinde igal altnda tutulan Yukar Karaba var. Sarkisyan -ok byk bir olaslkla- yeni gelen Suriye Ermenilerini Azerbaycana ait olan, ama Ermenistann igal ettii Yukar Karabaa koloniler halinde yerletirecek. Bylece Sarkisyan nfus tama yntemi ile Yukar Karaba Ermeniletirecek. Erivan igal ettii Azerbaycan topra Yukar Karaba ile srailin igal ettii Arap topraklar arasnda paralellik olumas iin abalyor. Sarkisyan kuraca yeni yerleimler ile srailin kurduu yerleimler arasnda hukuki, siyasi ve konjonktrel ortak noktalar gelimesini istiyor. Her nasl yeryzndeki ou Musevi kendisini sraile bal hisseder ve yle de davranrsa, Sarkisyan da yeryzndeki ou Ermeninin kendisini Ermenistana bal hissetmesini ve yle de davranmasn istiyor. Sarkisyan bunlar sadece siyasi menfaat iin istiyor. Dolaysyla Ermenistann davetine inanan ve Ermenistana g eden, g edecek olan Ermenileri kt ve tatsz bir gelecek bekliyor. Tpk Yahudi yerleimlerine yerlemek durumunda kalan ve igalci diye yaftalanarak, topraklarn geri isteyen Filistinlilerin dman grd Museviler gibi srailin izledii kt niyetli politikay taklit etmeye abalayan Sarkisyan bir gerein farkna henz varmad. Suriyede Ermeniler, baskc olmasna ramen ve i savaa ramen Esad rejimi altnda kendilerini gvende hissediyor. Suriyedeki Ermeniler silahlanmadlar ve atmalarda taraf olmadlar. Bu tutumlarn devam ettirme konusunda da kararllar. Suriyedeki Ermeni toplumu aklc hareket ediyor. Ancak bar ve huzur ortam iin Ermenistana g edenler, Yukar Karabaa yerletirildikten sonra, bir sabah kaplarnda ke ndilerine silah datan Ermeni ordu kamyonlarn grebilirler! nk Sarkisyann bu taktii er ya da ge Azerbaycann sert tepkisine ve fkesine ned en olacak. nk Sarkisyan Yukar Karabadaki igali hakl hale getirebilmek iin bunu denemekten kanmaz. Serj Sarkisyann bu hamlesi tarih boyunca kullanlan Ermenilerin kt kaderinin sona ermediine iaret ediyor. Sarkisyann plan baarl olursa, bunun sonucunda Suriye Ermenileri Yukar Karabada -Ermenistann igal altnda tuttuu Azerbaycan topranda - yine silahlandrlacak. Yine kendilerini korumak zorunda kalacak. O noktadan sonras ise kaderin ellerinde. yimser olmak ok zor Bu konuda yaanabilecek olas gelimeler ok kt olabilir. Sarkisyann Suriyeli Ermenilerin kayglarn istismar etmesi ve bundan siyasi avantaj salamay ummas ok uygun ve yerinde bir tutum deil. Savatan kaan, lmekten korkan ve kendisine verilen sze inanarak umudun peinden gidecek olan Ermenilerin yeni ve mutlu hayat nerede bulacan kimse bilemez. Ama nerede bulamayacaklar ok ak ; Aradklar huzur, zledikleri bar ve bekledikleri refah Erivann gettolarnda ve Yukar Karabada siperlerde olmayacak!

THE BAD FATE OF ARMENIANS

07 01 2013

Armenian President Serge Sarkisyan announces that they will help Armenians in Syria Armenian President Serge Sarkisyan has announced that they will aid Armenians in Syria, making Erevan once more the usual suspect. Now, it is more suspect than before. One should not say the final word at the beginning. It is not considered correct. But honesty is important. Honesty is not always approved or liked. But being honest is truly good. The truth is Armenia is trying to manipulate the Armenians in Syria. Armenia is trying to play with the individuals of the nation from which it derives its name. It is trying to profit from their desperation. It hopes to benefit from their fears. Armenian President Sarkisyan made the following statement in Moscow: Afghanistan, rising tension over Iran and the situation in Syria shows us that conditions are not hopeful. There is large Armenian community in Syria. Thousands of Armenians are an integral part of Syrian society. We will aid the Armenians there. Sarkisyan thus tries to show himself as powerful and capable. Erevan is trying to put itself forward as a regional actor with such statements. How successful the efforts of the Yerevan government are in this respect is dubious. But those who believe in Sarkisyans words will be bitterly disappointed. Sarkisyans Dream is a Second Israel Sarkisyan has invited all Armenians in Syria to Armenia. This cal might be seen as appropriate and positive. However, Sarkisyan probably secretly fears that this call is taken up in earnest. had Erevan such means at hand, it may have improved standards of living in its own country. Unemployment in Armenia continues to rise. Food prices are climbing. The average household in Armenia spends 52 percent of its income on food. Rent and other necessary expenditure has to be met with what remains. While Sarkisyan cannot provide for the welfare of his own people, it is not for naught that he has invited the Armenians in Syria to Armenia. Various sources estimate that there are between 80,000 and 120,000 Armenians in Syria, who may not be aware that Sarkisyan has a special plan in mind for them. Sarkisyan hopes before all else that Armenians in Syria bring with them a lot of wealth to Armenia. Since even under the most pessimistic assumption, the Armenians in Syria are better off than their counterparts in Armenia, Sarkisyan does not expect a loss. With what intention Sarkisyan has invited the Armenians in Syria and what he expects of them can be seen from the price increase of Armenian state airline flights

from Damascus to Erevan. What sort of a state calls on people to take refuge under its protection while increasing the price of tickets they are likely to buy? It is very much possible that should Sarkisyan manage to draw a significant population to Armenia, he will call on the Diaspora for aid or will go on a tour of addresses where he is welcome, Moscow foremost, to ask for support. He will thus have all the more reason to increase the donations made by the Diaspora to support the authoritarian and autocratic regime in Yerevan. But that will not be all. Sarkisyans real intentions concern Upper Karabagh which is under occupation. Sarkisyan is probably planning to settle down Armenians arriving from Syria on land which belongs to Azerbaijan but which is kept under occupation by Armenia in colonies. Thus Sarkisyan will make Upper Karabagh Armenian through population transplantation. Erevan is trying to draw a parallel between the Azerbaijani Upper Karabagh it keeps under occupation and the Arab lands Israel has occupied. Sarkisyan wants legal, political and conjectural common points to be formed between the new settlements he will seek to establish and the settlements founded by Israel on occupied land. Just as most Jews around the world feel a connection with Israel and act accordingly, Sarkisyan wants most Armenians around the world to feel a connection with Armenia and act accordingly. Sarkisyans sole aim is political gain. Therefore a bad future awaits those Armenians who believe in Armenias invitation to settle there. It will be just like those Jews who have had to settle down in Jewish settlements, who are seen as occupiers and as enemies by the Palestinians who want their land back. Sarkisyan, who is trying to follow the same policy in bad faith as Israel is yet to realise a fact. The Armenians in Syria feel safe under the Assad regime, despite the oppression and the civil war. They have not armed and they have not become party to the fighting. They seem adamant to maintain this position. The Armenian community in Syria is acting rationally. However, those who move to Armenia for peace and quiet might find the Armenian army distributing arms to them after having been planted in Upper Karabagh. For Sarkisyans tactics will eventually result in anger and reaction from Azerbaijan. In order to justify the occupation in Upper Karabagh, Sarkisyan will not refrain from such a move. Serge Sarkisyans move shows that the bad fate of Armenians, who have been used throughout history, has not yet ran its course. If Sarkisyans plan works, Armenians from Syria will be armed in Upper Karabagh, on Azerbaijani land occupied by Armenia. They will have to fend for themselves once more. From that point onwards, it is hard to be optimistic. The potential developments regarding this matter can be very bad. Sarkisyans manipulation of concerns of the Armenians in Syria and his hopes for political gain by doing so is hardly appropriate. One cannot know where those Syrians fleeing the war and following their hopes for a better life will find it. Where they will not find it is clear though: The peace quiet and welfare they are looking for is not to be found in the ghettos of Erevan or the trenches of Upper Karabagh.

THE GREAT DESPAIR OF ARMENIANS

07 01 2013

Being Armenian is very difficult, especially in Armenia Significant numbers of Armenians live in Syria. Various sources put the number of Armenians in Syria, who form an important part of the Diaspora, between 80,000 and 120,000. Armenians in Syria live under the heavy pressure of civil war. Conditions are shaping against them. Syrian Armenians suffer from a contradiction. Life in Syria, already difficult, is becoming very hard. Armenia keeps inviting Armenians in Syria. Erevan is calling on them to return home. But for Armenians in Syria Armenia has never been a home. For them, Syria is thei r home and country. Although Erevan keeps inviting Armenians in Syria to immigrate, very few have moved to Armenia so far, despite tough conditions under civil war. Armenians in Syria prefer not to go to Armenia despite the civil war and the fear for their lives. No one can blame them for it. The situation is not strange or surprising. Though there may be no war in Armenia, economic conditions are very difficult. Unemployment is very high. No one knows the true figure. The lack of transparency of the Armenian state renders the given statistics dubious. Still, statistics as are available show that the real sector in Armenia is in grave difficulties. In recent years, standards of living in Armenia have fallen rapidly. Not that standards of living were ever very high. The Erevan regime has never given the people a high standard of living. But there had been no other period in which conditions were so difficult. Armenians in Syria know very well that immigrating to Armenia or gaining Armenian citizenship will not solve any of their problems. For they need partisan ties to find employment in Armenia, like everyone else. Even to solve their housing problems, they will need to have an ally in the regime. Life for Armenians in Armenia will not be much different from life in Syria. Sometimes an outside opinion is clearer. Armenians in Syria can better observe Armenia. Armenia is a country which is managed by men backed by Russia, where politicians preferred by Russia are effective and where the regime is financed by Russia. An artificial stability might therefore prevail in Armenia today, but what will happen tomorrow is not clear. There are still many years before Armenia gains the position it deserves in the world states schematic. Therefore, Syria offers a safer and better future for Armenians there than does Armenia. The regime problem in Damascus and internal security issues will be solved sooner or later. It is certain that Syria will become the pearl of the Mediterranean once the dictatorship ends. But even when the regime problem is overcome, a new state and system is established and the new state obtains stability and power in Syria, the situation in Armenia is likely to be the same as it was twenty years ago when the country was founded. Therefore, Armenians in Syria have many reasons to be patient and wait it out. Sources indicate that 4,000 Armenians have arrived in Armenia from Syria to demand citizenship upon the great insistence of Erevan. This figure has been given by the Armenia Diaspora Ministry. In other words, between 96 and 99 percent of the target population have ignored Erevans call.

The Ministry claims that in 2012, 4,000 citizenship applications by Armenians from Syria have been accepted. The figure was later raised to 7,000 in one day. This sudden rise is part advertising and part end of season sale. There is an important detail to the matter. There is undoubtedly contact between Armenians who have emigrated from Syria and those who stayed behind. Many Armenians in Syria must be acting according to reports from people they know who have immigrated to Armenia. Therefore it is almost certain that there will be no noticeable movement of people from Syria to Armenia from now on. Armenians in Armenia look at the world as much as they are allowed by the regime and through its filters. Erevan, which places great importance on the donations made by the Diaspora, cannot offer Armenians from Syria even those opportunities they have left behind. The Erevan regime offers its people excuses instead of bread, historical traumata instead of freedom and state oppression instead of liberty. So the situation in Syria might be very bad, but still between 96 to 99 percent of Armenians there prefer that the boss be Assad and not Sarkisyan. The fact is that after Syria which is their land, the closest place, indeed the second home of Armenians in Syria is Turkey. Armenians in Syria are closer to Turkey than Armenia in terms of culture, cuisine, traditions and other similar factors. Armenians in Syria have always had varying degrees of contact with Anatolia, but they have had little or no contact with Caucasia. Armenia thinks that it is home to all the Armenians in the world. This claim is false. Very few of the Armenians around the world have ever seen Armenia. Home is where one is born or where one is looked after. This is why emigration from Armenia is very high. The current regime in Armenia sees itself at the centre of the world. But every development in every field since Armenia was founded shows that Armenia is not at the centre of the universe. The latest developments over Syria have shown that Armenia is not at the centre for many Armenians around the world. Armenians in Syria are searching for a future for themselves and for coming generations. When the difficult period in Syria is over, those Armenians who had enough patience and strength to endure will begin a better life. For them Armenia poses a risk in terms of future prospects and standard of living.

ERMENLERN BYK ARESZL

02 01 2013

Ermeni Olmak ok Zor, en ok da Ermenistanda Suriyede nemli sayda Ermeni yayor. Ermeni diasporasnn nemli bir ksmn tekil eden Suriye Ermenilerinin says baz kaynaklara gre 80.000 baka kaynakla gre 100.000 hatta 120.000. Suriye Ermenileri i savan ar basks altnda yayor. artlar hzla onlarn aleyhine geliiyor! Suriye Ermenileri ciddi bir eliki yayor. Onlar iin Suriyede kalmak giderek zorlayor. Suriyede zaten zor olan hayat giderek zorlayor. Ermenistan Suriye Ermenilerini srekli davet ediyor. Erivan Suriye Ermenilerini yuvaya aryor. Ama Suriye Ermenileri iin yuva hibir zaman Ermenistan olmad. Onlar iin yuva ya da vatan Suriye. Erivan Suriye Ermenilerini srekli ge davet etse de, ar i sava atlarna ramen Ermenistana tananlar ok az. Ne gariptir ki, Suriye Ermenileri i savaa ramen, can korkusuna ramen Ermenistan tercih etmiyorlar. Kimse onlara bunun iin kzamaz. Bu durum hi de tuhaf veyahut artc deil. nk Ermenistanda belki sava yok, ama ekonomik artlar ok ar. Her eyden nce Ermenistanda ok yksek bir isizlik oran var. Gerek rakam kimse bilmiyor. Ermeni devletinde effafln az olmas, mevcut rakamlarn inanlrln ve gvenilirliini dk tutuyor. Yine de rakamlar Ermenistanda reel sektrn zor durumda olduunu gsteriyor. Son yllarda Ermenistanda yaam standartlar hzla dmeye balad. Aslnda Ermenistanda yaam standartlar hibir zaman yksek deildi. Ermenistanda rejim halkna hibir zaman yksek kaliteli bir yaam sunmad. Ama artlarn bu denli ktye gittii baka bir dnem de olmamt. Suriye Ermenileri gayet iyi biliyorlar ki, Ermenistana g etmeleri ve hatta Ermenistan vatandal almalar hibir sorunlarn zmeyecek. nk onlarn da -tpk herkes gibi- Ermenistanda i bulabilmeleri iin partizan balantlara ihtiyalar var. Hatta konaklama sorununu zmek iin dahi rejimden, ynetimden birilerini araya sokabilmeleri gerekiyor. Dolaysyla hayat Suriye Ermenileri iin Ermenistanda da Suriyede olduundan ok farkl deil. Baz lkelerin durumunu ve konumunu anlamak dardan bakldnda daha kolaydr. Suriye Ermenileri de Ermenistan daha iyi gzlemleyebiliyorlar. Ermenistan, Rusyann destekledii adamlarn ynettii, Rusyann tercih ettii siyasilerin etkili olduu ve Rusyann finanse ettii bir rejimin lkesi... O nedenle Ermenistanda suni istikrar belki bugn var ama yarn pheli. Ermenistann dnyadaki devletler sistematiinde hak ettii pozisyonu kazanmasna daha uzun yllar var. Bu nedenle Suriye Ermenileri iin Suriye Ermenistana gre daha gvenli ve daha iyi bir gelecek vaat ediyor. Nihayetinde amdaki rejim sorunu ve Suriyenin i gvenlik meselesi er ya da ge zlecek. Suriyede diktatrln sona erd irilmesinin ardndan, Akdenizin incisi olaca kesin. Ama Suriyede rejim sorunu zlp, yeniden bir devlet ve sistem kurulduunda ve yeni sistem ve devlet istikrar kazanp glendiinde dahi, Ermenistan hala bugnk -yani bundan 20 yl nce kurulduu zaman ki- gibi olacak! O nedenle Suriye Ermenileri sabr etmek ve beklemek iin ok fazla nedene sahip. Baz kaynaklara gre Erivann byk srarna uyup bu lkeye giden ve vatandalk talep eden Suriye Ermenilerinin says yaklak 4.000. Bu rakamn kayna Ermenistan Diaspora Bakanl Dier bir deyile Erivann arsn grmezden gelenlerin oran %96 ila %99 arasnda Bakanlk 2012de Suriyeli Ermenilerin 4.000 vatandalk bavurusunun kabul edildiini belirtiyor. Geri bu sayda bir gnde ve bir anda 7.000e karld. Ama bu ani ykseli bir para reklam gibi, bir para sezon sonu cazip indirimi iin son ar gibi.

Elbette bu konunun ok dikkat ekmeyen ama ok nemli bir detay da var; Kukusuz Ermenistana g eden Ermeniler ile Suriye de kalan Ermeniler arasnda temas var. phesiz birok Suriye Ermenisi Ermenistana g eden tandklarndan alacaklar habere gre hareket ediyorlar. O nedenle bundan sonra Ermenistana kayda deer bir gn olmayaca kesin saylr. nk Ermenistandaki Ermeniler dnyaya rejimin kendilerine verdii izin lsnde ve onun filtreleriyle bakyor. Diasporadan gelen balara byk nem veren Erivann Suriye Ermenilerine Suriyedeki olanaklar -dahi- sunmas pek mmkn deil. Erivanda rejim halka ekmek yerine avuntu, eitlik yerine tarihi travma ve zgrlk yerine devlet basks sunuyor. Yani Suriyede de durum kt, hatta ok kt, ama yine de Suriye Ermenileri %96 ila %99u patron Sarkisyan olacana, Esad olsun diyor! Gerek u ki, Suriye Ermenileri iin vatanlar olan Suriyeden sonra en yakn yer, hatta ikinci vatan Ermenistan deil, Trkiyedir. Hatta Suriye Ermenileri kltr, mutfak, gelenekler ve benzer hususlar bakmndan Ermenistana deil, Trkiyeye daha yakn saylr. Nihaye tinde Suriye Ermenilerinin Anadolu ile daima, az veya ok ama srekli temas oldu, fakat Kafkasya ile ya hi olmad ya da hiten biraz fazla Ermenistan dnyadaki btn Ermenilerin vatan olduunu dnyor. Ama bu iddia doru deil. nk dnyadaki Ermenilerin gere kten ok, ama ok kk bir blm Ermenistan grd. Ayrca herkes iin vatan ya doduu yerdir ya da doyduu yerdir. Nitekim bu sebepten dolay Ermenistan yurtdna byk g veriyor. Ermenistandaki mevcut rejim kendisini dnyann merkezi kabul ediyor. Ama Ermenistann kuruluundan bu yana her konuda yaan an her gelime Ermenistann dnyann merkezi olmadn teyit etti. Hatta Suriye konusunda yaanan son gelime Ermenistann dnyadaki b tn Ermenilerin merkezi olmadn da kantlad. Suriye Ermenileri kendilerine ve gelecek nesillere bir istikbal aryor. Suriyenin yaad bu zor dnem bittiinde sabr ve gc yeten Ermeniler daha rahat ve daha iyi yeni bir hayata balayacak. Onlar iin gelecek kaygs ve yaam kalitesi asndan bakldnda Ermenistan daha riskli

ANOTHER SARKISYAN PERIOD IN ARMENIA

20 03 2013

Serge Sarkisyan has emerged victorious from the presidential elections held in Armenia. Sarkisyan managed to get more than half of the cast votes. Armenia faces many issues. But the electorate does not hold great hope in Sarkisyan. The above statement may seem like a contradiction, but it expresses the truth. Only 2.5 million voters cast votes in the elections. About a third of registered voters are working abroad to send their relatives money. It is a great expense for them to travel back to their country for the elections. Among Armenians in Armenia, unemployment approaches 16 percent. In the country where the average monthly income amounts to USD 300, the middle income group clings to life just a notch above the poverty margin. In Armenia, where unemployment is very high there are other problems which are just as unimportant as chronic poverty. Following the mass demonstrations which erupted after Serge Sarkisyans dubious electoral victory in 2008 and the security forces very strong r eaction which led to deaths and injuries, the oppressed Armenian society was pushed back in its demand for democratic rights and civil society has become more silent. First there were eight candidates planning to run in the elections. One had to pull out because of heavy state pressure. Two other candidates held hunger strikes to protest against pressure. Another candidate refused to vote in the elections in protest. Yet another was the victim of an armed attack. Leader of the National Will part Paruyr Hayrikyan luckily survived the attack. Strangely enough, first he filed a complaint with the court, which he withdrew the next day. Another candidate, accused of perpetrating an assassination may be jailed after the elections. Of the remaining three candidates, two claimed that the elections were fraudulent before a single vote was cast. Serge Sarkisyan has emerged victorious from the elections. The winner Sarkisyan undoubtedly had nothing to do with this series of events. But marching onto victory once the road was clear of all obstacles was probably very easy. One should expect Yerevan to join the Eurasian Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and similar joint defence projects in the new term. The re-election of Sarkisyan shows that those who hold the strings of this satellite state in their hands are happy with the present circumstances and expect to benefit from their continuation. Nothing new will take place under Sarkisyans new term. Sarkisyan does not hav e the power to recover his countrys economy. If he had such a capacity he might have done something sooner. Sarkisyan would undoubtedly prefer to lower unemployment and facilitate the return of his fellow citizens who work abroad under poor circumstances. No one should expect Armenia to change under Sarkisyan. Sarkisyan is the person greatly responsible for the fiasco which ended the normalisation process between Turkey and Armenia, which was begun in 2009 with US President Obamas initiative. Sarkisyan had ensured that the agreed settlements were stillborn by blocking the process which he had initially supported at a later point. It is possible that Sarkisyan will place a strategic significance on the year 2015, due to it being the centenary of the events of 1915. With Sarkisyan in power, Yerevan will probably squander the centenary with propaganda of hatred, ideological blindness, obsessive politics, genocide fetishism and the provision of cheap excuses for poor government instead of solving problems for a better shared future. One wishes that Yerevan would ask what to do about relations with Turkey and about Karabagh to the Armenian people, instead of Moscow. If one day a leader elected by Armenians comes to power in Yerevan and if this leader feels responsible towards the people then things may take a turn for the better. Sarkisyan is also known in the international community as the only leader to categorically reject all possible solution means regarding the Karabagh problem. It is known that Sarkisyan will take no steps over the occupation of Karabagh, which international law decrees to be

Azerbaijani land. Distant to objective and legitimate politics, Sarkisyan claims that Karabagh is Armenian land, in violation of all international treaties to which his country is a party. That Sarkisyan should emphasi se the strategic nature of Armenian-Russian relations at every opportunity during his election campaign probably fills in the missing piece. Sarkisyan may make efforts to remain on the good side of the European Union and the USA, but he should not be expected to do other than Russias bidding. Armenias problems can be solved overnight. Once relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan are normalised, capital from these coun tries will flow into Armenia. The country has the potential. Yerevan should seek to become a part of the solution instead of the problem. It needs to undertake multilateral infrastructure works for the future of the region. Armenia is poor in natural resources and needs to take steps to solve this issue. A process similar to European integration should be formed among the countries in Caucasia to permanently lock the sides into mutual satisfaction. Lessons should be learned from traumata. One needs to draw the line somewhere and go beyond it together. but it is difficult to even dream of such a process, let alone design it, with people who can only look as far as Moscow. The younger generation in Armenia, who have an idea of the world, see this too. But once more the man who says no to everything has won a very complicated election. Armenia will continue to be under pressure and simmer for another five years and the same cork will be in place for the next five years. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Who is Sarkisyan? Serge Azati Sarkisyan was born in Hankendi on the 30 of June 1954. Between 1991 and 1994 he led the Defence Army which he had set up in Armenian occupied Azerbaijani land Dagligh-Karabagh, a paramilitary force which he had set up modelled on the Serbian groups supported by Serbia in Bosnia. It has been claimed that Sarkisyan played a major role in the Hocali Massacre as leader of the Armenian armed forces in the Karabagh War. Due to his actions at the time, Yerevan rewarded him with a Medal of the National Hero. between 1996 and 1999 he served as National Defence Minister, as the secretary of the National Security Council between 199-200 and combined the two duties from 2000 onwards. In 2007 he was appointed to replace the late Prime Minister Markaryan by President Kocharyan. In 2008 he was elected President of Armenia. In the events which erupted following his election, the police shot dead eight demonstrators.
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ERMENSTANDA YENDEN SARKSYAN DNEM

27 02 2013

Ermenistan'daki cumhurbakanl seimlerinden Serj Sarkisyan zaferle kt. Serj Sarkisyan sandk bana giden semenlerin yarsndan fazlasnn oylarn almay baard. Ermenistan ok sayda sorunla bouuyor. Ama semenin Serj Sarkisyandan byk beklentisi yok. Bu sz bir eliki gibi grnse de, gerein tamamn ifade ediyor. nk seimlerde sadece 2,5 milyon semen oy kulland. Semenlerin yaklak te biri yurt dnda alp, lkesindeki akrabalarna para gnderiyor. Onlar iin seim iin dahi olsa lkelerine gelip, g eri dnmek ok byk masraf. Ermenistanda kalan Ermeniler arasnda isizlik %16 seviyesinde. lkenin te biri fakirlik snrnn altnda yayor. O rtalama gelirin 300 USD olduu lkede, ortalama gelire sahip kesim de aslnda fakirlik snrnn sadece birka santimetre zerinde hayata tutunmaya alyor sizlik orannn ok yksek olduu lkede sefalet ve kronik fakirlik kadar nemli baka sorunlar da var. Zaten 2008 ylndaki aibeli seimlerden Serj Sarkisyann zaferle kmasnn ardndan ba gsteren kitlesel gsterilere devletin ok sert mdahalesi sonucunda yaanan yaralanmalar ve lmler de sindirilmi Ermeni toplumunun demokratik hak araynn gerilemesine ve Ermenistanda sivil toplumun sesinin daha az kmasna neden oldu. Seimlerde nce sekiz aday vard. Adaylardan birisi basklar sonucu ekildi. Ayn nedenle ar devlet basksn protesto etmek iki aday alk grevi yapt. Bir baka aday protesto iin seimlerde oy kullanmay ret etti. Ayrca bir dier aday da silahl saldrya urad. Milli rade Birlii Bakan Paruyr Hayrikyan silahl saldrdan ans eseri yaral kurtuldu. Daha da garip olan Paruyr Hayrikyan bu saldrnn ardndan mahkemeye bavurdu, ama ertesi gn bavurusundan vazgeti,. Baka bir aday ise seimler sonrasnda hapse atlabilir, nk suikast dzenlemekle suland. Geriye kalan adaydan ikisi ise daha tek bir oy kullanlmadan seimlere hile kartrldn iddia etti. Ama seimleri Serj Sarki syan zaferle bitirdi. Kukusuz seimlerden zaferle kan Serj Sarkisyann bu zc olaylarla hibir ekilde ilgisi yoktur. Ama yoldaki talar temizlendikten sonra, zafere yrmek muhakkak daha kolay oldu. Aksine Erivann yeni dnemde Avrasya Birlii, angay birlii rgt ve dier benzeri ortak savunma projelerine katlmas artc olmaz. Serj Sarkisyann yeniden seilmesi, bu uydu devletin hkimiyetini elinde tutanlarn mevcut durumdan mutlu olduunu ve aynen devam etmesinden fayda umduklarn izah ediyor. Dolaysyla Serj Sarkisyann yeni dneminde yeni bir ey olmayacak. Serj Sarkisyann zaten lkesinin ekonomisini iyiletirecek gc yok. Eer byle bir gc olsayd, daha nce bir eyler yapard. Muhakkak Serj Sarkisyan da isizlii azaltmak isterdi, yurtdnda perian halde alan vatandalarnn yeniden lkeye dnmesini temin etmeye ga yret ederdi. Serj Sarkisyan dneminde Ermenistana herhangi bir konuda hibir deiim beklememek gerekir. Nihayetinde Serj Sarkisyan 2009 ylnda ABD Bakan Obama'nn giriimiyle Trkiye ile Ermenistan arasnda balatlan zm srecinin fiyaskoya dnme sinin de tek ve en byk sorumlusuydu. Serj Sarkisyan balangta destekledii ve aktif biimde katld sreci daha sonra kendi kendine bloke ederek, salanan uzlamann hayata gemesini nlemi ve kadk kalmasn salamt. Serj Sarkisyann zellikle 2015 yln, 1915 olaylarnn 100. Yldnm olmas nedeniyle stratejik hedef olarak grmesi olasl bir hayli yksek. Erivan Sarkisyann ynetiminde 100. yldnm, ortak ve iyi bir gelecek iin sorunlar zmeye ayrmak yerine, bugne kadar olduu gibi nefret propagandas, ideolojik krlk, saplantl siyaset, soykrm fetiizmi ve baarsz devlet ynetimi iin ucuz bahane aray ile ziyan edebilir.

Erivan keke Karaba konusunda da, Trkiye ile ilikilerin gelecei konusunda da ne yapacan Moskovaya deil de, Ermeni halkna sorsa ayet bir gn Erivanda Ermenistann setii bir lider oturursa ve seilen lider kendisini halkna kar sorumlu hissederse, belki o zaman baz eyler iyi ynde deiebilir. Serj Sarkisyan ayrca uluslararas toplumun nezdinde Karaba' Sorunu hakknda olas btn zm yollarn kategorik olarak ret eden tek lider olma vasfna da sahip. Serj Sarkisyann lkesinin uluslararas hukuka gre Azerbaycan topra kabul edilen - Karaba konusunda asla hibir adm atmayaca biliniyor. Serj Sarkisyan nesnellikten ve hukuktan uzak politikasyla lkesinin taraf olduu btn anlamalarn reddi anlamna gelen bir biimde- Karaban Ermenistana ait olduunu iddia ediyor. Serj Sarkisyann seim kampanyas dneminde her frsatta ErmenistanRusya ilikilerinin stratejik olduunu vurgulamas, muhtemelen bu resimdeki eksik paray da tamamlyor. Sarkisyan Avrupa Birlii ve ABD ile ilikilerini iyi seviyede muhafaza etme ynndeki gayretlerini srdrebilir, ama asla Rusyann sznden kmas beklenmemeli. Aslnda Ermenistann btn sorunlar bir gecede zlr. Trkiye ve Azerbaycan ile ilikiler normalletii anda, Ermenistan a Trk ve Azeri sermayesi lgn bir nehir gibi akar. Ermenistan bunun iin gereken potansiyele sahip. Erivan sorunun deil, zmn paras olmay tercih etmeli. Blgenin gelecei iin oktarafl altyap projeleri gerekletirilmek zorunda. Ermenistann ryen altyap yeniden yaplmak zorunda... Hammadde fakiri Ermenistan bu an kapatacak sistematii kurmak zorunda. Avrupada yaanan tarihsel srecin bir benzeri Kafkasyada kalc, uzun soluklu ve taraflar tatmin edecek biimde dnlmeli. Anlamazlklardan, uzlamazlklardan ve ihtilaflardan sonular kartlmal. Travmalardan ders alnmal. Bir izgi ekip, hep beraber o izgiden ileriye ufuk izgisine, hatta onun tesine beraber yrmek lazm. Ama ufku Moskovaya yeten kiilerle bu srecin deil hayata gemesi, tasarlanmas dahi ok zor. Ermenistann dnyay anlayan gen nesilleri de bunu anlyor. Ama yine ok karmak seimlerden her eye hayr diyen adam kt. Dier bir deyile Ermenistan be yl daha kaynamaya, skmaya, basn yaamaya devam edecek ve be yl daha ienin azndaki mantar ayn yerde duracak. Sarkisyan Kimdir? Serj Azati Sarkisyan 30 Haziran 1954 tarihinde Hankendide dodu. 1991 -1994 dneminde Ermeni igali altndaki Azerbaycan topra Dalk Karabada Ermenistann Bosna Savanda Srbistann destekledii Srp etelerinden esinlenerek kurduu Savunma Ordusu'nun bana geti. Karaba Sava srasnda Ermeni askeri glerinin banda bulunan Sarkisyan'n Hocal Katliamnda nemli rol stlendii id dia edildi. Bu dnemde yaptklarndan dolay Erivan onu Ulusal Kahraman Madalyasna layk grd. Daha so nra 1996-1999 yllar arasnda Milli Gvenlik Bakanl, 1999-2000 yllarnda Milli Gvenlik Konseyi Sekreterlii ve 2000 Ylndan itibaren bu grevle beraber Savunma Bakanl grevini ald. Robert Koaryan tarafndan 2007 ylnda kalp krizinden len Babakan Andranik Markaryann yerine atand. Devamnda 2008 ylnda Ermenistan Cumhurbakan seildi. Seimlerde yaanan olaylarn ardndan patlayan toplumsal gsterilerde polis sekiz kii vurarak ldrd .

LOOK AT THE ROPEWALKER!

06 02 2013

Dmitris Christophas once more blames Turkey for all failures A rope is sprung between two poles. An acrobat starts walking on it. A crowd gathers to watch the ropewalker. Everyone forgets about their business and agenda. Pickpockets scour the crowd and tell those not watching to look at the ropewalker. They then take peoples wallets out of their pockets. Whenever someone suspects something and looks around or whenever someone wants to ask something, the pickpockets tell them to look at the ropewalker. Southern Cyprus European Union term presidency has come to an end. Greek Cypriot leader Dmitris Christophas has evaluated the past si x months. Of course, as expected, anticipated and foreseen, he blamed Turkey! Dmitris Christophas claimed that his administrations term presidency was a success and that important decisions for the European Union had been taken in the past six months. He then started to blame Turkey. According to Christophas, the European Union has been given the Nobel peace Prize while the occupation of a part of European Union member Republic of Cyprus by the European Union candidate Turkey has continued. Turkey is camouflage for Christophas Of course there is a reason why Christophas picked this subject. Thus everyone concentrated their attention on evil Turkey. In a sense Christophas told the Europeans to look at the ropewalker. Had Christophas not done so, certain questions may have emerged. For example, someone may have asked Christophas: How do you account for applying for fiscal aid to the European Union due to the crisis, just after taking over the European Union term presidency? Another may have asked: When Greece was term president of the European Union, it arranged for the undeserved membership of your country by pressurin g and blackmailing other members and threatening to block a summit meeting. Under your term presidency, bankrupt Greece easily got what it wanted from the European Union. Which do you think we should be scared of the most: Greeces next presidency or yours? In order to imply that the European Union should lend more aid to his administration, Christophas said there should be greater solidar ity and social harmony within the European Union. Christophas therefore pointed out to the shaping of Social Europe and said tha t this target has to be met by the European Union. Once more in expectation of financial aid from the European Union, Christophas said that under Sou thern Cyprus

term presidency the informal ECOFIN meeting had been held and there the Joint Oversight Mechanism for Banking had been discussed. This mechanism is an important step towards a banking union and will contribute to the recapitalisation of banks in Europe. It is debatable to whether this is good news for Southern Cyprus. The dirty money haven did not propose this move or acted as its architect. The reason why the European Union now wants joint fiscal policy and joint fiscal oversight is because of administrations such as Southern Cyprus and Greece. The European Union feels compelled to set up a Joint Oversight mechanism for Banks because of banks operating in countries like Southern Cyprus and Greece. If a banking union is then established, it will be due to the performance of Greek and Greek Cypriot banks. Dmitris Christophas has claimed certain developments to be a success of his administration. Among them was the agreement between the European Parliament and the European Union on the 2013 budget, the agreement on the Unitary Patent package, the signing of a free trade agreement between the European Union and Japan and the Limasol Declaration regarding the maritime policy of the European Union and many other routine and ordinary developments. Had it not been for Christophas, the European Union would have ground to a halt, it seems. Christophas must think that Europe owes him a lot. Meanwhile, the Turkey file continues its function as the ropewalker for Christophas. Southern Cypriot Foreign Minister Hera to Kozaku Markulli has announced that a change in Southern Cyprus attitude towards the membership negotiations of Turkey. Markulli has said that there will be no changes in stance regarding the six chapters vetoed by Southern Cyprus as well as the energy chapter. To complain and to do nothing else Markulli or Christophas may want to answer the following question: If it is indeed the case that Turkey illegally occupies a part of Cyprus, then why have no steps been taken to change this s ituation, to end the conflict or to lift the occupation under the presidency of Christophas? Southern Cyprus makes the European Union budget, as told by Christophas. It even signs agreements between Europe and Japan. It is so powerful and influential, yet for some reason unable to take any steps to its advantage over the Cyprus issue. It is because the law does not allow for it and agreements prevent it. Nevertheless, Christophas, Markulli and others have to go on about bad Turkey. They have to tell people to look at the rope walker. If they do not do this and if the crowd starts looking at things other than the ropewalker, it will start asking the real reasons for demanding financial aid. It will ask why nothing is being done to solve the Cyprus problem. It will ask why all proposals by Northern Cyprus are shot down. It will ask why United Nations initiatives are prevented. It will ask Southern Cyprus why it does not demand negotiations between Turkey and the European Union to be suspended or ended, if Southern Cyprus is indeed correct about its claims regarding Turkish occupation. The European Union has produced many dogmas about Cyprus and now it cannot overcome them. But the European Union has to initiate a new way of thinking about the issue. Time passes and the age changes. The global system constantly faces new circumstances. There is great dynamism. In Cyprus the situation is no different than rowing on dry land. It is a waste of time and energy. The second black hole The Christophas administration continues to play look at the ropewalker, something it has inherited from previous administr ations in order not to be asked uncomfortable questions and not to advertise the issue of financial aid. This should no longer be allowed. If we take up the Turkey policy of the European Union from its onset we end up with the sad conclusion that it has produced the present Greek problem. As a result of the European Union policy on Turkey Greece has felt itself to be unique, invincible and essential, producing todays conditions. Another effect of the same mistake has been the Southern Cypriot problem, which Europe has felt but is yet to pronounce. Southern Cyprus is following the Greek example closely. This fiasco will have consequences. While Christophas sweeps everything under the carpet, he does not neglect to tell Europe to look at the ropewalker.

CAMBAZA BAK CAMBAZA!

23 01 2013

Dimitris Hristofyas yine btn baarszlklar iin Trkiyeyi sulad ki direk arasna ip balanr. Bir cambaz kar ipte yrr. Kalabalk toplanr ipteki cambaz seyreder. Herkes gnn, gndem ini unutur, cambaza bakar. Yankesiciler aralarda dolar, bakmayanlar da cambaza bak cambaza diye artrlar. Sonra ceplerden czdanlar toplarlar. Ne zaman ki, birisi bir tuhaflk sezer ve gzn cambazdan ayrr, ne zamanki birisi bir ey sormak ister, yankesiciler hemen o adama seslenir, cambaza bak, cambaza Gney Kbrsn Avrupa Birlii Dnem Bakanl sona erdi. Gney Kbrsl lider Dimitris Hristofyas sz konusu alt ay deer lendirdi. Elbette, kesinlikle, mutlaka ve %100 beklendii gibi Trkiyeyi sulad! Dimitris Hristofyas ynetiminin dnem bakanlnda baarl olduunu syledi ve bu dnemde Avrupa iin nemli kararlarn alndn ifade etti. Ondan sonra da Trkiyeyi sulad. Hristofyasa gre Avrupa Birliine Nobel Bar dl verildi, ancak Avrupa Birliinin ye lkesi olan Kbrs Cumhuriyetinde, Avrupa Birliine katlmak isteyen Trkiyenin igali devam etti Hristofyas in Trkiye Kamuflaj Elbette Hristofyasn konuyu buraya getirmesinin bir nedeni vard. Bu sayede herkesin dikkati yeniden kt Trkiyeye dnd. Bir bakma Hristofyas Avrupallara bir kez daha cambaza bak cambaza dedi. Eer Hristofyas bunu yapmasayd, akllara baz sorular gelec ekti.

rnein birisi Hristofyasa unu sorabilirdi; Avrupa Birlii Dnem Bakanln devralmanzn ardndan Avrupa Birliine -yani bir bakma kendinize- kriz dolaysyla mali yardm iin bavurmanz nasl deerlendiriyorsunuz? Belki bir bakas da unu sorard; Yunanistan Avrupa Birliinde dnem bakan olunca sizin Birlie katlmnz haksz ve kurallara aykr biimde dier Birlik yelerine bask ve antaj yaparak, doruk toplantsn bloke etme tehdidiyle salad. Siz dnem bakan olduunuzda da, mflis Yunanistan Avrupa Birliinden istedii her eyi kolaylkla ald. Bize gelecekte hangisinden daha ok korkmamz tavsiye edersiniz; Yunanistann bir sonraki dnem bakanlndan m, yoksa sizinkinden mi? Hristofyas Avrupa Birliinin ynetimine daha ok mali yardm vermesi gerektiini ima etmek iin, Avrupa Birliinde daha ok dayanma ve sosyal uyumun salanmas gerektiini syledi. Hristofyas bu nedenle, Avrupada Sosyal Avrupann biimlenmesinin nemine iaret etti ve Avrupa Birliinde bu hedefin baarlmasnn gerektiini belirtti. Ayrca Hristofyas yine Avrupadan bekledi mali yardm nede niyle, Gney Kbrsn dnem bakanl srasnda ECOFIN gayri resmi toplantsnn yapldna dikkat ekti ve bu toplantda Bankalar iin Ortak G zetleme Mekanizmas kurulmasnn ele alndn belirtti. Ortak Gzetleme Mekanizmas Banka Birliine doru nemli bir adm ve Avrupada bankaclk sektrnn sermayelendirilmesine katk yapacak. Bu gelimenin Gney Kbrs ne derecede sevindirdii tartlr. Nihayetinde kara parann cenneti bunu kendisi teklif etmedi, tasar haline getirmedi ve mimar da olmad. Zaten Avrupa Birlii ortak maliye politikas ve ortak maliye denetimi ngrdyse, Yunanistan ve Gney Kbrs gibi ynetimler yznden ngrd ayet Avrupa Birlii Bankalar iin Ortak Gzetleme Mekanizmas kurmay planlyorsa, buna yine Yunanistan ve Gney Kbrs gi bi lkelerin bankalar yznden buna mecburiyet hissediyor... Eer bunun devamnda da Avrupada Bankalar Birlii kurulursa, Yunan ve Rum bankalarnn performans nedeniyle kurulacak Dimitris Hristofyas birtakm gelimeleri de yine kendi ynetiminin baars ilan etti. rnein Avrupa Parlamentosu ile Avrupa Birliinin 2013 yl btesi zerinde anlamaya varmas. Ayrca niter Patent Paketi zerinde anlamaya varlmas. Bunun yan sra Avrupa Birlii ve Japonya arasndaki serbest ticaret anlamasnn imzalanmas ve Avrupa Birliinin deniz politikas konusunda yaynlanan Limasol Deklarasyonu. Son olarak Ortak ltica Sistemi ve daha bir sr rutin ve sradan gelime Demek ki, eer Hristofyas olmasa ok kt eyler yaanacakt. Avrupa Hristofyasa ok ey borlu olmal, diye dnyor olmal Hristofyas Bu arada elbette Trkiye dosyas Hristofyas ynetimi iin ipteki cambaz fonksiyonuna sahip olmaya devam ediyor. Nitekim Gney Kbrs Dileri Bakan Erato Kozaku Markulli, Gney Kbrsn Trkiyenin Avrupa Birlii ile katlm mzakerelerine ilikin tutumunda deiikliin sz konusu olmadn aklad. Kt giyinen ve galiba erkek berberine tra olan Markulli Gney Kbrsn veto ettiimiz alt balk ve enerji balna ilikin tutumunu deitirmesinin sz konusu olmadn ifade etti. Hem Alamak Hem de Hibir ey Yapmamak? O halde belki de Markulli veya Hristofyas u soruya cevap vermek ister; Madem Trkiye Kbrsn bir ksmn hukuka aykr biimde, adaletsizlikle, zorla igal altnda tutuyor. Hristofyas neden dnem bakanl srasnda bu durumu deitirmek iin, sorunu bitirmek iin, igal varsa onu sonlandrmak iin hibir adm atmad? Gney Kbrs -Hristofyasn anlattna gre- Avrupa Birliine bte yapyor, Avrupa ile Japonya arasnda serbest ticaret anlamas bile yapyor. O kadar etkili ve o kadar gl, ama her nedense Kbrs sorununda kendi lehine hibir adm atamyor. nk hukuk buna izin ve rmiyor. nk anlamalar buna engel oluyor. Fakat yine de Hristofyas da, Markulli de, dierleri de kt Trkiyeden sz etmeye mecburlar. nk herkese cambaza bak, cambaza demek zorundalar. Eer bunu yapmazlarsa, kalabalk, ban cambazdan indirip onlara bakarsa, aslnda gerekte neden mali yardm istediini soracak. Belki neden Kbrs sorununun zm iin hibir ey yapmadn soracak. Belki neden Kuzey Kbrsn btn nerilerini ret ettiini soracak. Belki neden Birlemi Milletlerin giriimlerini akamete urattn soracak. Eer Gney Kbrs Trkiye konusundaki iddialarnda haklysa, neden Trkiye-Avrupa Birlii katlm mzakerelerinin durdurulmasn veya sonlandrlmasn talep etmediini soracak. Avrupa Birlii Kbrs konusunda ok fazla dogma retti ve bu dogmalarn stesinden gelemiyor. Ama Avrupa Birlii artk bu konudaki dnce kalplarn krmak zorunda nk zaman geiyor, a deiiyor. Kresel sistemde artlar ve paktlar srekli yenileniyor. ok byk bir dinamizm var. Yaanan durumun buzda patinajdan fark yok. Sadece zaman ve enerji kaybna neden oluyor. kinci Kara Delik Galiba korktuu sorularn sorulmamas iin ve mali yardm konusunun ok fazla gz nnde olmamas iin Hristofyas ynetimi, k endinden nceki ynetimlerden miras ald refleksle cambaza bak cambaza oyununu srdryor. Buna daha fazla m saade edilmemesi gerekir. Avrupa Birliinin izledii Trkiye politikasn balangcndan itibaren ele alrsak, u zc sonuca varyoruz; bu hatann bir rn bugnk Yunan sorunu oldu. Yunanistann kendisini -bu politika yznden- emsalsiz ve vazgeilmez zannetmesi, zerinde hissettii dokunulmazlk zrh, bugnk kt durumu retti. Ayn hatann bir dier sonucu ise, Avrupann henz itiraf etmedii, ama baladn somut biiminde grd Gney Kbrs sorunu oldu; Gney Kbrs da emin admlarla Yunanistann izinde ilerliyor. Elbette bu fiyaskonun baz sonular olacak. Hristofyas ise bunu sulu psikolojisiyle halnn altna sprrken, yksek sesle btn Avrupaya baryor; Cambaza bak, cambaza

AVRUPANIN EN BYK AMAIRHANES

23 01 2013

Alman Der Spiegel dergisi Gney Kbrsta kara para aklandn tekrar gndeme getirdi Kara para ve para aklama kavramlar mafya lideri Al Capone'un yasad yollar ile elde ettii paralara yasallk kazandrmak iin amarhaneler amas ve bu yolla bu paralar yasal yolla kazanm gibi gstermesi ile ortaya kt. Dier bir deyile Al Capone olmasayd, bu yntem de

olmayacakt, bu kavramlar da renemeyecektik. Ama belki de Al Capone olmasayd, baka kavramlar ve terimler retilirdi. Kar a para ve para aklama ilerinin amarhaneler ile ifade edildiine gre, Gney Kbrs iin Avrupann en byk amarhanesi diyebiliriz. Aslnda Gney Kbrs ynetimi kendisini Akdenizin batmayan uak gemisi diye tanmlamay tercih ediyor. Elbette hi kimse Rum politikaclarn Avrupann en byk amarhanesi olmaktan gurur duymasn bekleyemez. Ama finans dnyasnda yaanan son gelimeler bir hayli tedirgin edici. Avrupa Birliinde yaananlar da keza yle. Gney Kbrsn -batmayan uak gemisinin- su almaya baladn gsteren emareler var. Baz gelimeler Gney Kbrsn kayalara arptn gsteriyor. Daha ak bir ifadeyle batmayan uak gemisi pe pee gelen baz talihsizliklerin sonucunda batyor. Gerekte kim kurtarlacak? Avrupa Birlii Gney Kbrs da kurtaracak. Yunanistann kurtarlmasnn ardndan Atinann Akdeniz ubesinin de kurtarlacak ynetimler srasna girecei kesindi. Avrupa kurumlar muhtemelen Gney Kbrsn kurtarlmay pratik bir para kazanma yntemi olarak grmediine kanaat getirmi olmal. Avrupa Birlii Akdenizde kara para cennetinin drst olduunu da muhakkak tespit etmitir. Hatta Hristofyasn Birlik kasasn boaltmak gibi bir amacnn olmadn da, Gney Kbrsn Birlii inek gibi samaya almadn da tespit etmiti r. Aksi halde Avrupa Gney Kbrsa yardm etmezdi. Dier olaslk gerek olsa, Avrupa Birlii neden yeni Rum zenginler retmek iin Gney Kbrsa para versin ve neden Avrupa Birlii Gney Kbrsa geri alamayacan bildii paralar versin? Ama galiba bu konuda her ey grnd kadar basit deil! nk Alman basnnn nemli dergisi Der Spiegel dergisi getiimiz gnlerde ok nemli bir haber yaynlad. Der Spiegelin yaynna gre, Avrupada Gney Kbrsta kara para aklandnn farknda olanlar var. Der Spiegel eer Avrupa Birlii, Gney Kbrsa yardmc olursa Rus oligarklarnn yasad varlklarnn korunmas iin Alman vergi mkelleflerinin faturay deyeceklerine dair bilgi veren Alman Federal stihbarat Servisinin raporunu aklad. Yani -Der Spiegele gre- Alman istihbarat kuruluu zetle Gney Kbrsa yardm etmek, Rus oligarklarn Gney Kbrstaki yasad varlklarn korumak olur diyor. Alman istihbarat servisi bunun iim Alman vergi mkelleflerinin fatura demesini de aklc bulmuyor. Bu vaziyet ok etin Bu vaziyet Avrupa Birliinin ok skntl bir tercih yapmak zorunda kaldna iaret ediyor. Avrupa Birlii yesi olan bir ynetimin iflasna gz yumamaz. Onu kurtarmak zorunda! Geri Avrupada yaanan borlar krizi bir hayli ar safhaya geti, am a nihayetinde kk bir adann yarsn toparlayacak para da kimse iin sorun olmaz. Ama Avrupa Birlii bu sorumluluunu yerine getirirse, o zaman da Rus mafyasnn kara parasnn aklanmas operasyonuna mali katk salam olacak. Hatta belki de Gney Kbrstaki birka akll muhasebecinin sinsi kalem manevralar sonucunda, Rus mafyasna Gney Kbrsta depolad yasad varlklar iin ek faiz veya ikramiye demesi yapacak! Hristofyas ddialar Ret Etti! Elbette Gney Kbrsn lideri Dimitris Hristofyas bu iddialar doru bulmuyor ve iddetle itiraz ediyor. Dimitris Hristofyas kara para iddialarnn haksz olduunu savunuyor. Dimitris Hristofyas kara para aklama konusunda sert tedbirler alndn ve buna ilikin Birlik direktiflerini uyguladn ileri sryor. Ama Hristofyasn szlerinin inandrcl ok yksek deil. Gney Kbrsn Avrupa Birliine katlm sreci srasndaki en hassas konularn banda Rum ynetiminin aday yasad finansal varlklar iin adeta bir snak haline getirmesi konusu vard. zellikle Tassos Papadopoulosun bakanl dneminde batmayan uak gemisi deil, ama korsan gemisi haline gelen Gney Kbrs Birlie katlabilmek iin pek ok sert tedb iri, denetleme sistemini ve uygulamay hayata geirmek zorunda kalmt. Dier taraftan Dimitris Hristofyasn pragmatik siyaset izgisi de, onu deil de Almanyann raporunu daha gvenilir ve inandrc hale getiriyor. Hristofyas Strasburgda Avrupa Parlamentosu Genel Kurulunda Kbrsn Avrupa Birlii Dnem Bakanl hakkndaki konumasnn devamnda, Avrupa Parlamentosu Bakan Martin Schulzla birlikte dzenledii ortak basn toplantsnda ikna edici deildi. Hristofyas kendisinin ve temsil ettii ynetimin gvenilirliini artrmak iin Avrupa Komisyon Bakanna, Kbrs bankalarn sermayelendirilmesi hakknda bir mektup sunduunu, mektupta Avrupa stikrar Mekanizmasnn verecei mali yardmn dorudan bankalara verilmesini istediini syledi. Ama bunun gvenirlii artrmas bir hayli zor. Omiruya gre durum ok baka Gney Kbrs Meclisi Bakan Yannakis Omiru, Gney Kbrsn kara para aklamayla mcadelede birok Avrupa lkesinden daha iyi durumda olduunu iddia etti. Yannakis Omiru, Gney Kbrsn mali ve ekonomik yapsnn bozulmasnn Avrupa Konseyinin Yunanistann bor krizinin almas iin verdii kararn sonucu olduunu da savunuyor. Avrupann borlar krizini amak iin yanl bir metodoloji izledii kesin. Hi kimsenin bu konuda bir tereddd yok. Ama Avrupa kurumlarnn Yunanistann borlarnn hafifletilmesi iin izledii yanl strateji neden Gney Kbrs batrsn, bunu anlamak da bir hayli zor. Yannakis Omiru Gney Kbrsn Avrupa Birliinden yardm taleplerini Birliin baz temel ilkelerine dayandrd. Bunlar da devletler ve halklar arasnda dayanma, insan haklar, demokrasi ve adalet diye listeledi. Avrupa Birliinin Omiruya da, Hristofyasa da pekl sen bu ilkelere ne derecede uyuyorsun diye sormayaca kesin. Ayn ekilde Avrupa kurumlarnn Gney Kbrsn taleplerini daha nce de defalarca olduu gibi ve ok sorgulamadan ilkelere gre deil, gnlk kar hesaplarna gre yerine getirecei de muhakkak. yle ya da byle Gney Kbrs Avrupa finans sisteminde Yunanistann ardndan ikinci kara delik olabilir. Gney Kbrsta nceki dnemin kt miras, kt sicil ve gvenilirlik sorunu var. Eer Yunanistann ardndan Gney Kbrs da Avrupa stikrar Mekanizmasnn byk mterisi olursa hi kimse armaz. Gney Kbrs iin de sa tra, bor silinmesi, tahvil takas ve benzeri uygulamalar gndeme geleb ilir. Bu uygulamalar sadece finansal zorluklar ile deil, ayn zamanda ynetimlerin kriz politikas ile de irtibatl Moodys Gney Kbrs in ok Ktmser Bu arada kredi derecelendirme kuruluu Moodys Gney Kbrs ekonomisi iin kt haberler vermeye devam ediyor. Gney Kbrs n devlet bonolarnn 10 Ocak 2013te Caa3e dmesinin devamnda Moodys nce Gney Kbrs bankasnn byk oranda teminatsz borlanmas ve mevduat faizlerini Caa2ye drd. Daha sonra da bu bankalardan Hellenic Bankn bamsz kredi deerlendirmesini Caa3ten Caa2ye, Kbrs Popular Bankn bamsz kredi deerlendirmesini de Cadan Caa3e ekti. Moodys bundan sonra baka benzer admlar da atabilir. Dier kredi derecelendirme kurulular da Moodys ile ayn ynde hareket edebilir.

IN CYPRUS, THE CHURCH WINS EVERY ELECTION

20 03 2013

Europes most trivial elections were held Presidential elections have been held in Southern Cyprus. Many candidates contested for the place. There were secret and open meetings. There has been joy and sorrow. There was much propaganda. But these are the motions Southern Cyprus goes through before every election. In fact, the winner is always the same. This is what democracy in Southern Cyprus amounts to; the Church has won the previous elections and it has also won this one. The true winner of the elections was Archbishop Chrisostomos the Second, head of the Greek Cypriot orthodox Church. Archbishop Chrisostomos the Second is the real boss in Southern Cyprus. Everything happens as he says they should. The Archbishop is the number one in Southern Cyprus not only because of his religious knowledge and leadership capabilities but for other reasons. Chrisostomos the Second is a member of the Greek Cypriot National Council which includes the current and former presidents, the archbishop, the commander of the Greek Cypriot National Guard Army and the heads of political parties represented in parliament. The Greek Cypriot National Council may be termed the collective mind of the system. The labels collective memory or collective intellect may also be applied. In any case, the shared judgment of the Greek Cypriot National Council takes the decisions and everyone obeys them loyally and in silence. No one can cross the lines the council draws for any reason. The most influential member of the Greek Cypriot National Council, as can easily be guessed is Archbishop Chrisostomos the Second. It is only Chrisostomos the Second among all the other members of the council who wields sacred power. The press statements of Chrisostomos the Secon d are an indicator of the previous and coming decisions of the Council. If Chrisostomos the Second decrees there be peace there will be peace. If he decrees there be no peace then there is no p eace. It is all this simple. For example, Chrisostomos the Second decreed that the peace plan shaped by the UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to be incompatible with the Bible and Southern Cyprus refused the plan. The Southern Cypriot government which had contributed to the preparatio n of that very plan did everything in its power to have the plan rejected in the referendum. Chrisostomos the Second had previously ruled out certain joint steps by Turkey and Southern Cyprus in the context of Turkey-EU relations and everything was suspended. Therefore neither the elections nor the laws matter in Southern Cyprus. Greek Cypriot politicians could have used the advantages offered by the European Union to stop the impositions of the Church on politics. The archbishop would have then had to give up social engineering. but the system has filters in place which keeps out those who may dare to make such moves. There is evidence that this is the case. According to Professor Ata Atuns claim, if one looks at the 53 year long history of the Republic of Cyprus, established in 1 950, Makarios the Third (Mihail Hristodulu Muskos), who invited General Grivas to the island to set up EOKA in 1954 stayed in power for 18 years between 1958-197. Spyros Kyprianu followed him and stayed in power for 11 years between 1977-1988 followed by Glafkos Klerides who held office for ten years between 1993-2003 and finally Tassos Papadopoulos who was president for five years between 2003-2008. These four high ranking members of the EOA who shed much blood and engaged in genocide against Cypriot Turks between 1963 and 1974 were presidents of Greek Cypriots for 44 years in between them. The Church, the Council and their filters did not allow for others. After Papadopoulos, the leftist Christophias was elected, but he was no better.

KIBRISTA HER SEM KLSE KAZANIR

27 02 2013

Avrupann en nemsiz seimleri yapld Gney Kbrsta cumhurbakanl seimleri yapld. Elbette bu seimlere de katlan adaylar vard. Ak ve gizli grmeler de oldu. Krgnlklar, cokular da vard. Propaganda da bol bol yapld. Ama aslnda bunlar Gney Kbrsta her seimde ncesinde ve sonra tekrarlanr. Ama seimden zaferle kan, her seimden sonra yz glen daima ayndr nk Gney Kbrsta demokrasi bundan ibaret Daha nceki seimleri de kilise kazand, bu sei mi de yle. Bu seimin de gerek galibi Rum Ortodoks Kilisesi Bakan Bapiskopos II. Hrisostomos! Bapiskopos II. Hrisostomos Gney Kbrstaki gerek patron. II. Hrisostomos ne derse, o olur! Bapiskopos sadece sahip oldu u dini bilgi ve buna dayanan nderlik nedeniyle deil, baka nedenlerden dolay da Gney Kbrsn Bir Numaras konumunda. II. Hrisostomos ayn zamanda Ru m Ulusal Konseyi yesi. Bu konsey cumhurbakan, eski cumhurbakanlar, bapiskopos, Rum Milli Muhafz Ordusu Komutan ve parl amentoda temsil edilen partilerin yneticilerinden meydana geliyor. Rum Ulusal Konseyi iin aslnda sistemin ortak akl da denilebilir. Belki de ortak hafza ve ortak zek demek de uygu n olabilir. Her durumda Rum Ulusal Konseyi yelerinin ortak muhakemeleri ile kararlar alr ve herkes bu kararlara sessizce ve sadak atle uyar. Hi kimse her ne sebeple olursa olsun, asla Konseyin izdii izgileri aamaz. Rum Ulusal Konseyinin en etkili yesi ise -kolaylkla tahmin edilecei gibi - Bapiskopos II.

Hrisostomos. Nihayetinde elinde tuttuu g kutsal olan Konsey yesi sadece II. Hrisostomos. II. Hrisostomosun basna yansyan beyanatlar, Rum Ulusal Konseyin bir nceki veya bir sonraki toplantdaki kararn ifade ediyor. Eer II. Hrisostomos bar olacak derse, bar olur. Ama bar olmayacak derse, bar da olmaz. Her ey bu kadar basit. rnein II. Hrisostomos dnemin BM Genel Sekreteri Kofi Annann hazrlad bar plan iin ncile uygun deil dedi ve Gney Kbrs plan ret etti. Hatta o plann hazrlanmasnda bir noktaya kadar katks olan Gney Kbrs hkmeti dahi plann ret edilmesi iin her yolu kulland. Daha nce de II. Hrisostomos Trkiye-Avrupa Birlii ilikileri hakknda, Trkiye ile Gney Kbrsn baz ortaklaa admlar atmas konusunda da kesin bir ifadeyle hayr demiti ve her ey bloke olmutu. O nedenle Gney Kbrsta ne seimlerin ne de yasalarn nemi var. Gney Kbrsl siyasetiler, Avrupa Birlii yeliini avantajlarn Ortodoks Kilisesinin siyaset kurumuna tasallutunu bitirmek iin deerle ndirebilirlerdi. O zaman bapiskopos toplum mhendisliinden de vazgemek zorunda kalrd. Ama sistem ve filtre zaten buna cesaret gsterecekleri darda tutuyor. Bunun ispat da var. Prof. Dr. Ata Atunun tespitine gre, 1960 ylnda kurulan Kbrs Cumhuriyetinin 53 yllk tarihine baklrsa, EOKAy kurmak iin 1954 ylnda General Grivas adaya aran ve EOKAy kurdurtan III. Makarios (Mihail Hristodulu Muskos) 1958 -1977 yllar arasnda 18 yl ynetti. Onu Spyros Kyprianu izledi. Kyprianu 1977-1988 yllar arasnda 11 yl idare etti. Daha sonra Glafkos Klerides de 1993-2003 yllar arasnda 10 yl ve Tassos Papadopulos 2003-2008 yllar arasnda 5 yl cumhurbakanl yapt. Aday kanaya bulayan ve Kbrsl Trklere 1963 -1974 yllar arasnda soykrm uygulayan EOKAnn bu 4 st dzey yneticisi toplamda 44 yl Kbrsl Rumlarn cumhurbakanln yapt. Yani kilise, konsey ve filtre bakasna izin vermedi. Geri Papadopulostan sonra solcu Hristofyas seildi, ama o da dierlerini aratmad!

THE ANASTASIADIS PERIOD IN CYPRUS

20 03 2013

What will happen in Southern Cyprus after the elections? The elections in Southern Cyprus were won by Nikos Anastasiadis. Anastasiadis victory was pretty much certain. Having won th e blessings of the church Anastasiadis did not upset tradition. The churchs candidate won once again. What does the Anastasiadis period offer? Nikos Anastasiadis will have to deal with greater problems than most of his predecessors. The Anastasiadis administration has taken over a bankrupt economy. It will not be easy to bring the country, which is in difficulties due to money laundering, out of the crisis. Anastasiadis has of course promised the electorate an end to the crisis. This target will not be so easy to reach. Southern Cyprus is the most misgoverned region in Europe. The previous head of state was the communist Dmitris Christophias. Before him was the EOKA member Tassos Papadopoulos. Newly elected Nikos Anastasiadis does not offer much hope. Those who hope that he will usher in a new period claim that it is a good sign that Anastasiadis has not tried to downplay the collapse of the financial sector and that he will look for a solution. But to act otherwise is not an option. Nikos Anastasiadis does not have much choice over the economy. When the Troika inspectors arrive he will report to them, answer their questions and promise to meet their demands. Meanwhile he will work with Israelis for natural gas. On the other hand he will work with Greece to expand the sovereign economic zones and to connect them. Other than these he will of course do what the Church and the Greek Cypriot National Council tell him to do. The Financial Crisis The previous leader Dmitris Christophias had negotiated for eight months for a bailout worth EUR 17.5 billion with the Troika delegation consisting of the representatives of the European Union, the IMF and the European Central Bank. At least this is what was claimed. The truth was probably a little different. According to the reporting the sides had met an agreement in principle. But there was no agreement over critical issues such as privatisation. But it is more probable that the Troika chose not to rush things given Christophias political twists and turn s, his pragmatism, the poor record of Southern Cyprus, the ongoing negative experiences in Greece and the like. It is reasonable that the Troika would choose to deal with a new leader to emerge from the elections rather than someone at the end of his mandate and who is known for making promises to all comers. In any case it is hardly believable that the whole of Europe sat down to negotiate with small Southern Cyprus and was spurned. Anastasiadis promised reforms and a balanced budget throughout his election campaign. He used the phrases to overcome the cr isis by uniting popular support with political power and re-growth a lot. Anastasiadis made promises to modernise the state and to carry out radical reforms. Anastasiadis thus advertised himself as the right man to the Troika throughout the campaigning period. Indeed, his rivals reacted throughout the election campaign to his readiness for cooperation. For example one of his rivals, Andros Kipriyanu, Secretary-general of the Left Party criticised Anastasiadis for his close ties with Berlin.

For Anastasiadis, the top priority is to declare a settlement with the Troika. Southern Cyprus is finding things difficult every month. In the second half of 2013, the country might experience a severe crisis. Therefore it is imperative that the settlement comes fact and the austerity measures are ratified. The Cyprus Problem On the other hand, the new leader Nikos Anastasiadis appears in a favourable light for a solution to the Cyprus problem. Of course, one must be very cautious over this issue. In any case, due to his previously declared position on the Cyprus issue Anastasiadis seems on principle to be amiable to a solution. Anastasiadis had made efforts for the peace plan known by the name of the then UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to be accepted. Meanwhile, then president of Southern Cyprus Tassos Papadopoulos had worked actively to sabotage the plan he had taken part in preparing. However, words come and go. The same thing may mean different things when said in power and when said in opposition. Someone who has won the elections with the support of the church might not represent the same pro-solution position any longer. Nevertheless Anastasiadis saying he sincerely wishes to find a solution so that both sides can live together in Europe which is the symbo l of human rights, progress and welfare in a statement regarding Northern Cyprus is still valuable. One should not raise up too much hope however. Previously Dmitris Christophias had engaged in a lot of negotiations with Northern Cyprus, which collapsed due to a lack of progress on the issue of representation and property. But that Christophias should give up on the whole thing because of a lack of progress on the contentious issue of representation and property indicates that he never had much belief in the process and never made a lot of effort. Christophias predecessor Tassos Papadopoulos had used a similar ruse to fool and delay Un Secretary-General Kofi Annan. The present Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon had believed in Dmitris Christophias and spent a long time adjusting to his manoeuvring. It is difficult to guess whether Ban Ki-Moon will win this time. At this point one should not overlook the fact that Nikos Anastasiadis foreign minister is Iannis Kasulides. Kasulides serve d for a long time in the European Parliament. Kasulides had once before acted as foreign minister under former president Glafkos Klerides. Kasulides is known as the strongest politician within the DISI party after Anastasiadis. In 2004 Kasulides had supported the Annan plan during the referendum. But Kasulides also enjoys the support of the church and of EOKA sympathisers. In his victory speech Nikos Anastasiadis said a new period begins for Cyprus, not that anyone expected him to say anything different. In the collation Nikos Anastasiadis has dubbed the National Salvation Government, there are five ministers from his own party DISI, four ministers from ultra nationalist DIKO and one minister from the conservative Europe Party. This collation structure will not allow Nikos Anastasiadis to take bold steps. Anastasiadis has his priorities as receiving aid from Europe and to ensure the exploitation of underground resources surrounding the island to the benefit of the Southern Cypriot economy and will therefore not take comprehensive steps over the solution of the Cyprus problem. If he were to attempt this cracks will appear in his coalition and decision making on his priority projects might falter. The new period in Southern Cyprus may be termed the Anastasiadis period. Nikos Anastasiadis may have promised his voters a new period. But the new period in Southern Cyprus does not differ much from the old. Neither should it be expected to differ. If things changed in Southern Cyprus through elections, the country would not have gone bankrupt and there might have been a solution to the Cyprus problem. There might have been some development on some issue, at least. al B ah3egy in place to buy government bonds when necessary. Fitch has declared that the crisis in Europe will be over by 2015. If the contraction of the last 26-27 months is overlooked or if it is assumed that Greece miraculously makes up for this contraction, the Greek GDP amounts to USD 300 billion. It is expected that Greece will balance its budget in 2022, that is in nine or ten years time. T he target for 2012 is not that Greece will be in the black or reduce its budget deficit but that it will make its budget manageable. In other words, the most optimistic predictions for Greece have it paying back its debt in 2022. If Greece is to come around in ten years time according to the most optimistic predictions, how will the rest of Europe, 55 times bigger than the Greek economy recover itself in a couple of years? In a system in which all economies are intertwined, how will other economies recover while one continues to go down? If everything is fine as the banks claim, why have European leaders decided on a budget cut recently, for the first time in t he European Unions history? If the bad days are over and done with, why was this savings decision celebrated like a major victory? Has no one had the slightest suspicion? Liberalism? Where? Whatever anyone may say or any report may contain, being cautious ought to be viewed as the best guarantee. Although it is claimed that liberalism is the spirit of the present system, everyone and everything is under pressure. Interests are under pressure. Financial markets are under pressure. The same is true of bankruptcies, consumers and governments. Those who just yesterday opposed state intervention in the name of liberalism are today asking the state to capitalise banks and pay bonuses to their executives in the name of liberalism. The markets do not decide who goes bankrupt and who does not, although it seems complicated. Profits should be profits and losses ought to be losses. Prices, output and consumption should have been shaped by the equilibrium of demand and supply. This would have been the short way of measuring market preference. But market preferences are no longer demonstrated by economic criteria such as supply, demand, prices, output and consumption. Instead, the determinant factors are the morality of bank executive boards and the extent to which a rehabilitation of the unbridled ambition of investors who gamble on the international markets is possible. To put it openly greed, maximalism and Machiavellianism continue to be the pillar which support the system that has pushed millions into poverty and misery. Being optimistic nevertheless In the last quarter of 2012, OECD economies have contracted by 0.2 percent. In other words, OECD economies have entered a contraction trend for the first time since 2009. In this context the Eurozone, the UK and Japan have contracted. Although there is optimism over the USA, there has been no growth. The OECD consists of major developed economies and a number of developing economies.

KIBRISTA ANASTASADS DNEM

06 03 2013

Gney Kbrsta Seimlerin Ardndan Neler Olabilir? Gney Kbrsta seimleri Nikos Anastasiadis kazand. Aslnda Anastasiadisin seim zaferi kesin gibiydi. Kilisenin desteini alan Anastasiadis gelenei bozmad. Yine seimleri kilisenin aday kazanm oldu. Anastasiadis dnemi neler vaat ediyor? Nikos Anastasiadis ou nceki selefinden daha fazla ve daha byk sorunla bouacak. Anastasiadisin ynetimi batm bir ekonomiyi devrald. Kara para batandaki lkeyi krizden karmak kolay olmayacak. Anastasiadis elbette semene krizden k vaat etti. Ama bu hedef grnd kadar kolay olmayacak. Gney Kbrs btn Avrupadaki en kt ynetilen blge Bir nceki devlet bakan Komnist Dimitris Hristofyas idi Ondan nceki ise EOKA yesi Tassos Papadopoulos imdi seilen Nikos Anastasiadis ise fazlaca umut vermiyor. Onunla yeni bir dnemin balamasn um anlar Anastasiadisin mflis lkesinin km finans sisteminin halini inkr etmemesini, krize zm araynn ilk adm olarak gsteriyorlar. Bunun aksi zaten mmkn deil. Nikos Anastasiadis ekonomi konularnda herhangi bir seenee sahip deil. Troyka mfettileri geldiinde rapor verecek, onlarn sorularn cevaplayacak, onlarn taleplerini karlayacana sz verecek. Bu arada bir taraftan doal gaz iin srailliler ile alacak. Dier taraftan mnhasr blgeleri geniletmek ve birbirine balamak iin Yunanistan ile mesai yapacak. Bundan baka da elbette Kilise ne diyorsa, Rum Ulusal Konseyi ne dnyorsa, onlar hayata geirmeye alacak. Mali Kriz Daha nce eski lider Dimitris Hristofyas, Avrupa Birlii, Uluslararas Para Fonu ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas'ndan oluan Troyka heyetleriyle tam sekiz ay boyunca 17,5 milyar EUR tutarnda yardm paketi iin pazarlk yapmt. Daha dorusu bu iddia haber olarak duyurulmutu. Gerek muhtemelen bundan biraz farklyd. Haberlere gre taraflar arasnda grmelerde prensip anlamasna varld. Ama zelletirm e gibi kritik derecede nemli konularda mutabakat salanamad. Ama daha byk bir ihtimalle Troyka Hristofyasn genel siyasi izgisindeki zigzaglar, pragmatizmi, Gney Kbrsn kt ve bozuk sicili, halen yaanmakta olan Yunan deneyimindeki olumsuzluklar ve sai re gzeterek aceleci olmamay seti. Troykann herkese sz veren ve grevi birka ay sonra nihayete erecek bir siyaseti ile deil de, yeni seimlerden kacak liderle almak istemesi daha makul. Zaten koskoca Avrupann minicik Gney Kbrs ile mzakere, hatta pazarlk edip anlama salayamamas diye bir olaslk yok. Anastasiadis de btn seim kampanyas boyunca reform ve dengeli bte vaat etti. Anastasiadis halkn desteini siyasi gle birletirip krizi amak ve yeniden bymek gibi szleri sklkla kulland. Anastasiadis, semene devleti modernletirmek ve kkl reform yapmak konusunda da szler verdi. Hlasas Anastasiadis seim dneminde kendisini Troykaya doru adres olarak lanse etti. Zaten rakipleri de onu bu derecede ibirliine hazr ve ak olmasna seim kampanyas dneminde de tepki gsterdiler. rnein rakiplerinden Sol Parti Genel Sekreteri Andr os Kipriyanu Anastasiadisi Berlin ile yaknlndan dolay sert biimde eletirdi. Anastasiadis iin birinci ncelik, Troyka ile u zlamann ilan edilmesi. nk Gney Kbrs iin her ay daha zor geiyor. zellikle 2013 ylnn ilk alt aylk diliminin ardndan Gney Kbrs ok ar bir buhran yaayabilir. Bu nedenle uzlamann hzlandrlmas ve devamnda tas arruf paketinin onaylanmas art Kbrs Sorunu Dier taraftan yeni lider Nikos Anastasiadis Kbrs sorununun zm iin de olumlu bir isim gibi grlyor. Elbette bu konud a muhakkak ok temkinli olmak lazm! Ama her durumda Anastasiadis Kbrs sorunu hakknda daha nce deklare ettii tutumu nedeniyle ilkesel olarak olumlu grlmeye ok uygun. nk Anastasiadis, dnemin BM Genel Sekreteri Kofi Annann adyla anlan bar plannn kabul edilmesi iin aba harcamt. Dnemin Gney Kbrs lideri Tassos Papadopoulos ise ierisinde grev ald bu sreci bizzat sabote etmiti. Ama elbette szler gelip geicidir. Ayn sz iktidarda ve muhalefette farkl anlamlara da gelebilir. Muhtemelen kilisenin aday olarak seimleri kazanan bir kimse, artk ayn siyasi pozisyonu temsil edemeyebilir. Ama yine de Anastasiadisin Kuzey Kbrsa ynelik bir aklamasnda kulland insan haklar, ilerleme ve refahn simgesi olan ortak Avrupada birlikte yaayabilmeleri iin soruna zm getirmeyi samimiyetle arzulad ifadesi yine de deerli. Ama yine de ok umutlu olmamak lazm. nk daha nce de Dimitris Hristofyas Kuzey Kbrs ile pek ok temasta bulunduktan sonra temsil ve mlkiyet konularnda gelime salanamad iin zm gereklememiti. Aslnda Hristofyasn temsil ve mlkiyet konularnda gelime olmad iin, zm salamamas, onun bu srece bandan itibaren hi inanmadn, bu konuda hibir aba gstermediini ve aba gstermey i de hi dnmediini ispat ediyor. Hristofyasn selefi Tassos Papadopoulos benzer bir taktikte BM Genel Sekreteri Kofi Annan kandrm ve uzun sre oyalamt. imdiki BM Genel Sekreteri Ban Ki-Moon da Dimitris Hristofyasa inanm ve uzun sre onun manevralar zamann harcamt. Acaba Ban Ki -Moon bu defa kazanr m, tahmin etmek zor

Ama bu noktada bir detaya dikkat etmek lazm; Nikos Anastasiadisin dileri bakan Yannis Kasulides oldu. Kasulides uzun yllar Avr upa Parlamentosu'nda grev yapt. Daha nce de Kasulides eski Rum bakanlardan Glafkos Klerides dneminde de dileri bakan ola rak grev yapmt. Kasulides DS partisinde Anastasiadisten sonra gelen en gl isim olarak biliniyor. Kasulides, 2004 ylnda refe randuma sunulan Annan plann desteklemiti. Ama Kasulides ayrca kilisenin ve EOKAclarn desteine sahip Nikos Anastasiadis seim zaferinin ardndan yapt konumada Kbrs iin yeni bir dnem balyor dedi, ama yine de daha farkl bir aklama yapmasn hi kimse beklemiyordu. Nikos Anastasiadisin Ulusal Kurtulu Hkmeti adn verdii koalisyonda kendi partisi DSden 5, ar milliyeti izgideki DKOdan 4, muhafazakr Avrupa Partisinden de 1 bakan yer ald. Sz konusu koalisyon yaps Nikos Anastasiadise cesur adm atma imkn vermez. ncelii ar ekonomik buhran iin Avrupadan yardm almak ve ayrca adann evresindeki yer alt kaynaklarnn Gney Kbrsn ekonomisine katk salayacak ekilde iletilmesini salamak olan Anastasiadis, Kbrs sorununun zm iin kapsaml admlar atmaya kalkmayacaktr. nk bunu yaparsa koalisyonda zorluklar artabilir ve ncelikli grd konularda gelime salamak iin alnmas gereken kararlar gecikebilir. Gney Kbrsta yeni dnemin ad Anastasiadis Dnemi olabilir. Nikos Anastasiadis semenlerine yeni bir dnem sz vermi de olabilir. Ama Gney Kbrsta yeni dnemin eski dnemden ciddi bir fark yok Olmas da beklenmemeli zaten. ayet Gney Kbrsta birtakm iler seimler sayesinde deiseydi, rnein Gney Kbrs mali adan iflas etmezdi veya Kbrs sorununun zm salanrd. Hi deilse, he rhangi bir konuda gelime temin edilirdi.

WHAT SHOULD ANASTASIADIS DO?

20 03 2013

A change of climate for a solution in Cyprus The new number one has been elected in Cyprus and it is Nikos Anastasiadis. Of course, just as it was with the new election of all number ones before Anastasiadis, the possibility of a solution in Cyprus is once more being weighed up. One of the most important problems of our time is climate change. Climate change affects the entire world. It can be seen in every sector and in almost every country. But there has been no change of climate in Southern Cypriot politics for decades. No structure which tries to run diplomacy, seek a solution and practice politics according to the decrees and interpretations of the church can hope to succeed. Under the circumstances it is not possible to have a change of climate. If Nikos Anastasiadis truly desires a solution, he should first do what all other Southern Cypriot leaders have not done and not do what they did. First of all he should accept the existence of certain fundamental parameters. These parameters are not principles produced or criteria demanded by Ankara. On the contrary they are the stipulations of international agreements signed by Greece. Had this been not the case, no one, especially not the European institutions, could have remained so silent on this aspect of the Cyprus problem. If Nikos Anastasiadis believes that Southern Cyprus can contribute to a solution on the island, he should declare the fundamental principles regarding the grounds over which a solution may be founded. There have been certain efforts in the past to establish a permanent, mutually beneficial and sustainable peace on the island. Nikos Anastasiadis should pay heed to these past efforts. During the government of Christophias and before him of Papadopoulos negotiations were held. There was a very important development in Burgenstock, Switzerland when Papadopoulos was number one. In Burgenstock, Papadopoulos represented Southern Cyprus, Karmalis Greece and Erdogan and Gul Turkey. During this round of talks the Annan Plan was prepared. The plan which was prepared on the initiative of the then UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and which thus bore his name was the greatest step forward in the history of the Cyprus conflict. But the circumstances did not live up to expectations. The Annan Plan was to be approved by a referendum on both parts of the island. In Northern Cyprus 65 percent of the people voted in favour of the plan while in the south 76 percent rejected it. As a result the Annan Plan was stillborn. That the Southern Cypriot politicians who were present while the plan was prepared and who engaged in the negotiations should campaign for a no vote during the propaganda season is difficult to understand. Following this shameful episode, as though an agreement had been reached and a solution attained, Southern Cyprus was admitted to the European Union against all stipulations of the law. The European Union later signalled that it would try to compensate for this injustice. As concrete steps a change in fiscal policies was promised so that Turkish Cypriots could access various forms of financial support and that they would be allowed free movement. Unsurprisingly the European Commission later reneged on its promise. This experience has not changed Ankaras or Southern Cyprus approach to a solution. Steps to be taken from now on can only rise up on the same grounds as the rejected plan. No one should expect Northern Cyprus to agree to anything less than the Annan Plan which ha the signature of all relevant parties under it.

ANASTASADS NE YAPMALI?
13 03 2013

Kbrsta zm in klim Deiiklii Lazm Nikos Anastasiadis Gney Kbrsta yeni bir numara seildi Elbette yine ve Anastasiadisten nceki btn bir numaralar seildiinde olduu gibi, yine Kbrsta zm olasl bir kez daha sorgulanyor. amzn en nemli sorunlar arasnda iklim deiiklii yer alyor. klim deiiklii btn yerkreyi etkiliyor. klim deiiklii hemen her sektrde ve hemen her lkede grlyor. Ama sadece Gney Kbrs siyasetinde on yllardr hibir iklim deiiklii yaanamyor. nk Ortodoks Kilisesinin hkmlerine ve yorumlarna gre diplomasi yrtmeye, zm retmeye ve siyaset yapmaya alan hibir yap sonu elde edemez. Elbette bu artlarda da bir iklimin deimesi veya gelimesi sz konusu olamaz. Nikos Anastasiadis eer gerekten zm istiyorsa, kendisinden nceki btn Gney Kbrsl liderlerinin yaptn yapmamas ve yapmadklarn yapmas lazm. Her eyden nce baz temel parametrelerin gerekliini kabul etmesi lazm Bu parametreler Ankarann rettii ilkeler veya talep ettii kavramlar deil, bilakis altnda Yunanistann da imzasnn bulunduunu uluslararas anlamalarn ve szlemelerin emi rleri. Zaten aksi bir durum doru olsayd, bugne kadar Avrupa kurumlar bata olmak zere hi kimse Kbrs sorununun bu boyutu hakknda bu kadar sessiz kalmazd. Nikos Anastasiadis, adada zm salanmasnda Gney Kbrsn faydas olduuna inanyorsa, zmn hangi zeminde ve hangi at altnda ekillenmesi gerektii ynndeki temel ilkeleri deklare etmesi lazm. Daha nce adada kalc, uzun soluklu, karlkl faydaya dayal ve srdrlebilir olma hedefine sahip bir zm salanmas iin baz abalar oldu. Nikos Anastasiadis bunun zerinde durmal. Daha nce hem Papadopulos dneminde hem de Hristofyas dneminde baz grmeler mzakereler oldu. zellikle Papadopulosun bir numara olduu dnemde, svirede Brgenstockta ok nemli bir giriim oldu. Brgenstockta Gney Kbrs ynetimi adna Papadopulos, Yunanistan adna Karamanlis ve Trkiye adna Recep Tayyip Erdoan ve Abdullah G l bir araya geldiler. Bu grme maratonunda Annan Plan hazrland. Dnemin BM Genel Sekreteri Kofi Annann giriimiyle hazr lanan ve onun adyla anlan bu plan, Kbrs ihtilafnn tarihinde salanan en nemli ilerleme ve en byk adm oldu. Ama artlar farkl geliti. Annan Plan adann hem kuzeyinde hem de gneyinde referanduma sunuldu. Kuzey Kbrs'ta halkn %65i evet oyu verdi. Ama Gney Kbrsta ise hayr oylar %76 seviyesinde oldu. Bunun sonucunda Annan Plan ld. Plann hazrlanmasnda bizzat masada bulunan ve youn mzakerelere katla n Gney Kbrsl politikaclarn propaganda dneminde hayr oyu iin almalar anlal amaz bir tutumu ortaya koydu. Bu utanlmas gereken srecin devamnda -sanki anlama salanm gibi, sanki sorun zlm gibi - Gney Kbrs btn ilgili hukuk kurallarna aykr biimde Avrupa Birlii tam yeliine kabul edildi. Daha sonra Avrupa Birlii bu adaletsizlii telafi yoluna gideceinin sinyallerini verdi. rnein bunun somut birer adm olarak Kbrsl Trkler iin mali politikalarda deiiklik yaplaca ve Kbrs Trklerine dorudan eitli mali destek salanaca sz verildi. Bunun yan sra serbest dolam da taahht edildi. Beklendii gibi, srpriz olmad biimde Avrupa Komisyonu elbette verdii sz yerine getirmedi. Yaanan bu durum Ankarann veya Kuzey Kbrsn zme bak asn deitirmedi. Muhakkak bundan sonra atlacak admlar da ayn plann zerinde salanacak gelimeler ile olabilir. Yani hi kimse Kuzey Kbrs iin altnda btn taraflarn imzas olan Annan Planndan bir milimetre daha geride bir zme evet demesi ummamal.

IT WILL BE A BAD YEAR FOR EUROPE

10 01 2013

Manufacturing output is falling in Europe. Strong manufacturing is needed for Eurozone countries to overcome stagnation. The fall in demand is lowering output. According to the DW only Ireland saw its manufacturing output rise in 2012, while France, Italy and the Netherlands maintained their output levels, manufacturing fell in Spain, Austria and Greece. Loss of demand for manufactured goods from third countries due to falling power of purchasing and spending cuts has resulted in export orders falling for 18 consecutive months. The economic press keeps reporting that firms are constantly postponing their investment plans in Europe. Firms are in difficulty due to insufficient internal and external demand. The position of firms which export to large markets such as China and the USA is good and firms investing in China are pleased. However, hopes of recovery in the Eurozone in 2013 are slim. Reuters claims that Eurozone will attain positive growth during the second quarter of the year, a prediction which for now looks very optimistic. On the other hand, the most popular proposal for fighting the crisis is that the European Union should implement joint taxation and economic policies as well as a joint fiscal policy. In other words, Europe seeking further integration in this process and attaining greater concurrence over

rules and principles is being offered as the recipe for solving the crisis. Yet to solve a problem, one must tackle its causes. The reason for the crisis was not insufficient European integration or the acquis. Perhaps there were not enough sanctions for not following the rules in the European Union. Many rules were indeed violated. But, to put it simply, for the last five years Greece has been following the rules to the letter and is the most regulated country. Despite this, it is in a pitiful state. In 2013 there might be new recovery operations for Portugal, Spain and Italy. It is not yet certain how well prepared the European Union is for this possibility. On the other hand if Germany, which already has low growth expectations, slips into recession due to falling external orders for example, or if credit ratings agencies slash Germanys credit rating, it is difficult to imagine what will happen. According to the calculations of the European Union Commission, the number of citizens over 60 years of age increases by 2 million every year in the 27 member states. According to the DW the population over 60 has doubled in a decade. European Union member states spend 10 percent of their national income on retirement pay. In the European Union, which has a population of 500 million, 120 million people are retired. In other words, one in four citizens are past working age. The active population is therefore falling. As time passes in Europe, the demographic problem alone makes it more difficult to exit the crisis. According to the predictions of international regulation and consultancy agency Ernst & Young, in 2013 Eurozone unemployment will hit the record level of 20 million people. In 2010, there were 15.9 million people unemployed in the Eurozone.

AVRUPA N KT BR YIL OLACAK

09 01 2013

Avrupada sanayi sektr zayflyor. Avro Blgesi lkelerinin ekonomik durgunluu atlatmas iin gl sanayi retimi gerekiy or. Ama talepteki gerileme, retimi de aaya ekiyor. DWnin aktardna gre 2012 yln bymeyle kapatan tek lke rlanda ve Fransa, talya ve Hollanda retim dzeyini korurken, spanya, Avusturya ve Yunanistan'da sanayi sektr daralmaya devam ediyor. Satn alma gcnde azalma ve harcamalarda yaplan kesintiler gibi nc lkelerden sanayi rnlerine gelen talepteki gerileme de 18 aydr ihracat irketlerin siparilerinin azalmasn srdryor. Ekonomi basnnn da dile getirdii gibi, Avrupada iletmeler yatrm planlarn ertelemeye devam ediyorlar. Yetersiz i ve d talep yznden firmalar zorlanyor. in ve ABD gibi byk pazarlara ihracat yapan irketle rin durumu iyi ve inde yatrm yapan irketler halinden memnun. Fakat Avro Blgesi lkelerinde 2013 ylnda iyileme umudu ok dk. Reuters Avro Blgesinin yln ikinci eyreinde pozitif bymeye geeceini savunuyor. Ama bu tahmin imdilik ok iyimser grnyor. Dier taraftan krizle mcadele iin en ok masaya getirilen teklif Avro Blgesinin ortak finans politikasnn yan s ra, ortak vergi ve ekonomi politikalar da uygulamas. Dier bir deyile Avrupann bu srete daha fazla entegrasyon elde etmesi ve ortak ilkeler ve ku rallar konusunda daha fazla ahenk salanmas krizin zm reetesi gibi sunuluyor. Hlbuki bir sorunu zmek iin onu reten etkenler ortadan kaldrlmal. Krizin nedeni de, sebebi de Avrupa entegrasyonun yetersizlii veya Avrupa mktesebat ile ilgili deildi. Belki Avrupa Birliinde ou kurala uymak balayc deildi. Gerekten Birliin gemiinde kurallar srekli ihll edildi. Ama sade bir bak asyla dnrsek, herhalde Avrupa Birliinin tarihinde Yunanistan son be yldr kurallara en ok uyan ve en ok denetlenen ye durumunda. Ama buna ramen Yunanistann ackl hali ortada. 2013 ylnda Portekiz, spanya ve hatta belki de talya iin yeni kurtarma operasyonlar gndeme gelebilir. Avrupa Birliinin buna ne derecede hazrlkl olduu kesin deil. Dier taraftan 2013 ylnda dk byme hz beklentisi olan Almanya -rnein d talepte daralma yzndenresesyona girerse veya kredi derecelendirme kurulular Almanyann kredi notunu krarsa, sonrasn tahmin etmek bir hayli zo r. Avrupa Birlii Komisyonu'nun hesaplamalarna gre 27 ye lkede 60 yan zerindekiler her yl iki milyon artyor. DWnin aktardna gre, 60 yan zerindeki nfus on yl ncesine gre katland. Avrupa Birlii yesi lkeler milli gelirlerini %10unu emekli maalarna ayryor. 500 milyon nfuslu Avrupa Birlii lkelerinde 120 milyon emekli yayor. Dier bir deyile her drt Avrupaldan biri alma an kapatm. Dolaysyla aktif nfus azalyor. Avrupada zaman hzla akarken, demografik sorun dahi tek bana krizden k zorlatryor. Uluslararas denetim ve danmanlk irketi Ernst & Young'n tahminlerine gre Avro Blgesinde isizlik 2013 ylnda rekor artla 20 milyona ykselecek. Bu rakam 2010 ylnda 15,9 milyon idi.

WHAT DID MERKEL MEAN?

10 01 2013

German Chancellor Angela Merkel: The crisis is not yet over, reform decisions are beginning to have effect, much patience is needed. In her New Year message, German Chancellor Angela Merkel sent out some important messages. Merkel openly said a right balanc e is needed for welfare and solidarity. This analytical approach shows how the crisis can be sto pped and how the damage from the side effects of the crisis can be mitigated. Angela Merkel repeated in her New Year message what she has said throughout 2012, that fiscal markets need better regulation. Merkel said that there are further steps needed at the international level for the better regulation of markets. From this it becomes clear that Merkel does not view fiscal regulation to be limited to the mandate of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and joint fiscal policy and regulation in Europe. It was interesting that Merkel should say the world has not learned its lesson from the financial crisis of 2008 and that such irresponsibility should never be repeated. A more interesting detail was Merkels remark that in a social market economy, the stat e protects the system and that people should have confidence in this. What is being done today in Europe to fight the crisis is due to Berlin. Whatever progress has been made has Merkels influen ce. Since 2007 the impact of the global financial crisis has been felt in Europe. The scope of the debt crisis is clear. In the time passed, Greece has arrived at an even worse state. Despite the aid given to the country, Greek debt and deficit have risen. Greece was supposed to pay back its debts. Not only did it not pay back anything, but its debt was cleared twice and one bond exchange was carried out. The bond exchange was another method of debt reduction. Merkel was the architect of all this. Therefore it is not very meaningful for her to say that the world ha s not learned its lesson from the global crisis Similarly, it is disturbing that she should remark in a social market economy, the state protects the system and that people should have confidence in this. The system implemented in Greece, Spain and even Germany for paying back the debts incurred from imaginary transactions carried out over non-existent profits and funds is not in keeping with a social market economy or a social state at all. In such a system, the state is of course the guardian. But its guardianship is not limited to looking after profit obsessed fiscal markets. The state also protects the people. It does not shut down schools and hospitals because they are expensive. It does not try to cut pensioner pay in order to pay back tens of billions of Euros worth of debt. Chancellor Angela Merkel has claimed that 2013 will be a tough year. Then we should ask why her Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble claimed that the worst of the crisis was over as of the end of 2012. That Merkel should invite e veryone to greater efficiency and solidarity implies that there might be some surprise problems in 2013. The German Central Bank has warned that there is the possibility of approaching recession in early 2013. The Federal government predicts only 1 percent growth for Germany in 2013 and this will have ramifications. If Europes most stable economy begins taking risks in 2013, this might trigger new developments.

MERKEL NE DEMEK STED?

09 01 2013

Almanya Babakan Angela Merkel, kriz henz almad, reform kararlar etkisini gstermeye balad, ok sabr gstermek gerekiyor... Almanya anslyesi Angela Merkel yeni yl mesajnda ok nemli mesajlar verdi. Angela Merkel aka unu syledi; refah ve b eraberlik iin doru bir dengeye ihtiya var. Bu analitik yaklam, esas olarak hem krizin nasl durdurulabileceini hem de krizin yan etkilerinin getirdii zarar nasl snrlanabileceini ortaya koyuyor. Angela Merkel yeni yl mesajnda -2012 ylnn tamamnda olduu gibi- mali piyasalar daha iyi denetlemek gerektiini syledi. Merkel mali piyasalar daha iyi denetlemek iin iin uluslararas alanda daha ok adm atlmas gerektiini syledi. Bu szlerden Angela Merkelin dncelerinin sadece Avrupa stikrar Mekanizmas (ESM) ve Avrupada ortak mali politika ve ortam mali denetim ile snrl olmad anlalyor.

Nitekim Merkelin dnyann 2008 ylnda balayan mali krizden yeterince sonu karmadn ve byle bir sorumsuzluun bir daha olmamas gerektiini sylemesi de dikkat ekiciydi. Daha da dikkat ekici detay Merkelin sosyal piyasa ekonomisinde devletin dzenin koruyucusu olduunu, insanlarn buna gvenmesi gerektiini sylemesi oldu. Bugn Avrupada krizle mcadele iin her ne yaplyorsa bunlar Berlinin eseri. Avrupada her ne gelime salandysa, bunda da Merkelin etkisi var. 2007 ylndan bu yana Avrupa Birliinde kresel mali krizin etkileri grlyor. Yaanan bor krizinin erevesi de orta da. Geen zaman zarfnda Yunanistan ilk bata olduundan daha da kt hale geldi. Yunanistana yaplan yardmlara ramen bu lkenin a da, borcu da artt. Gya Yunanistan ald yardmlar geri deyecekti. Hibir ey deyemedii gibi iki defa borcu silindi, bir defa da tahvil takas yapld. Aslnda tahvil takas da bor silmenin bir baka yoluydu. Btn bu sistematiin mimar da Merkel idi. O nedenle Angela Merkelin dnyann kresel krizden yeterince sonu karamadn sylemesi pek fazla bir anlam tamyor. Ayn ekilde sosyal piyasa ekonomisinde devletin d zenin koruyucusu olduunu, insanlarn buna gvenmesi gerektiini sylemesi de aslnda rahatszlk verici. nk Yunanistanda, spanyada ve dier benzer lkelerde -hatta Almanyada bile- krizle mcadele ad altnda, aslnda hi olmayan paralarn hayali karlarndan yaplan farazi ilemler zerinden yaplan borlanmalarn gerekte geri denmesi iin uygulanan sistem hi de sosyal pazar ekonomisine ve sosyal devlete benzemiyor. Elbette sz konusu sistemde devlet dzenin koruyucusudur. Ama devlet dzeni koru mak denildiinde sadece daha fazla kar saplantsyla kudurmu mali piyasalar korumaz. Devlet dzeni korurken insan da korur. Okullar pahal diye, hastaneleri masrafl diye kapattrmaz. Emeklilerin gelirinden yapaca kesintilerle on milyarlarca Avroluk borlar detmeye almaz anslye Angela Merkel 2013 ylnn zor bir yl olacan ifade etti. O halde Maliye Bakan Wolfgang Schaeuble'nin 2012 ylnn sonunda neden krizin en kt gnlerinin aldn ifade ettiini zmek lazm. Merkelin herkesi daha verimli olmaya ve beraberlie davet etmesi ise -onun bizden daha fazla bilgili olmas gerektiini de dnnce - 2013te srpriz sorunlar grleceine iaret ediyor. Alman Merkez Bankas Almanya'nn 2013 balarnda resesyona yaklaabilecei uyarsnda bulundu. Federal hkmetin 2013 yl iin tespit ettii byme hedefi de sadece %1 ve bunun baz etkileri olabilir. Nihayetinde Avrupann en salam ekonomisi de 2013 ylnda risk stlenmesi birtakm gelimeleri de tetikleyebilir.

A HORROR MOVIE: THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY IN 2012

10 01 2013

The global system could not overcome the crisis in 2012 either. If every year is taken to be a score point, the crisis is ahead 5-0. Nothing has been accomplished in the struggle with the crisis so far. 2012 began as a lost year and ended as a lost year. No one claims any longer than the crisis will be over in 2013. The crisis will last longer. The main characteristic of neo-liberalism is that it does not recognise the concept of a crisis or that it does not evaluate any development of possibility as a crisis. Neo-liberalism aims at manipulating and profiting from every new development. Although the real sector might be in trouble around the world and every sector might be losing blood, the financial sector continues to reap high profits. Therefore we may claim that this phase of the world economy has been marked by the superiority and pressure of the financial sector and by losses incurred on other actors. Credit Rating Agencies One of the most discussed topics in the world of economics in 2012 was about credit rating agencies. The slashing of the ratings of European countries became one of the basic indicators of the world economy. In January 2012 Standard and Poors (S&P) lowered the cred it ratings of nine Eurozone countries while Fitch lowered ratings for five countries. The credit ratings of Austria, France, Malta, Slovakia, Southern Cyprus, Italy, Portugal and Spain fell. Following S&P and Fitch, Moodys lowered ratings of six Eurozone members. Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta were affected. In following months S&P and Moodys continued to lower Spains credit rating. Towards the end of the year Moodys lowered Frances credit rating of Aaa by a grade to Aa1 and its outlook to negative. The impact of credit rating agencies on national economies was high throughout the year. 2012 had hopes of 2013 Of course, the most determinant actors in the global economy were not credit rating agencies. The European Commission, the World Bank and the International monetary Fund were all effective in 2012 with their reports as well as statements by their higher level officials. All three organisations gave cautious and concerned signals throughout the year. Pessimism was the common note in the communications of all three organisations The World Banks main concern during the year was the global system becoming blocked as a result of falling growth in developing economies such as China, India and Brazil. The World Bank lowered its forecast for global growth from 3.6 to 3.1 percent due to the slowdown in developing economies. Meanwhile the IMF lowered its forecast from 4 percent to 3.3 percent. OECD data ran in parallel to data from both the World Bank and the IMF. It should be noted that given the current conjecture, not every value above 0 percent equals growth. Even 3 percent growth might not represent a net gain. For giants such as China, growth rates between 7 and 8 percent signal a slowdown. In any case, it was forecasted that 2013 would see better figures than 2012, when the growth of the US economy slowed down, negative growth was experienced in the European Union and the global rate of growth slowed. The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) Although Greece caused concerns for the European Union in 2012, Spain and Italy were the real scare. Rising unemployment, contraction of the real sector, recession, concerns over political stability combined have rendered the situation in these two countries nerve wreaking for the European Union.

Another important development in 2012 was the decision to raise the resources of the IMF by USD 430 billion, taken at a G-20 summit meeting. Another was the realisation of a permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM) with resources amounting to EUR 500 billion by the finance ministers of the Eurozone. The ESM has replaced the European Fiscal Stability Fund (EFSF). The EFSF had been used to salvage Greece, Ireland and Portugal, using resources worth EUR 192 billion. The Eurozone, mindful of the dark clouds on the horizon, probably designed the ESM for Spain and Italy. The ESM may lend directly to governments facing a crisis. It will also intervene on bonds markets and directly capitalise banks. Until mid-2013 the ESM will operate jointly with the EFSF. The ESM will have capital amounting to EUR 700 billion. The ESM, which was founded in 2012 after long bargaining and debate and which was expected to become functional in 2014 is a more critical issue than it looks. The implementation of the ESM has meant a mutation of the European Union. The European Union is not what it used to be for a long time now. The approachable European Union of the early years, which was human focused and peace centred, which cherished diversity and looked for cooperation over every issue has since the 90s become quite something else and has surrendered to markets and lobbies. Europe has given up on democracy The debt crisis in Europe has highlighted a problem which Europe has to solve at the intellectual level. The identity problems of the European Union are now a thing of the past. Perhaps such an issue was never at stake. The European Union has given up on defining itself. It no longer cares what its references are. The European Union has given up on the matter of interpreting the fundamental principles. It became apparent in 2012 that the European Union is an alliance of financial markets and associated lobbies. It was realised in 2012 that the European Union is not run by European institutions, voters, taxpayers or citizens. Five or six people run the European Union. They are EU President Herman van Rompuy, EU Foreign Policy High Representative Catherine Ashton, Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and IMF president Christine Lagarde. This is poor indeed. It shows that the European Union has given up on democracy, that it is in the post-democracy period and that the rule of technocrats has begun. This may be explained through a tangible example. The general public, voters, governments, parliamentarians and ministers who they have elected might think that it is not correct to pay back Greek debt. They may think that the European Union has no place in this issue. However, the interests of those markets and lobbies which dominate the European Union might require Europeans to dish out for aid to Greece. In this case, even though Europeans do not want it and Greeks rebel against the idea, technocrats might ensure that aid is sent to Greece. Technocrats deem it practically necessary for the greater good. In the true elections of the European Union, only a handful of officials have a vote. All those measures taken in 2012 against the crisis in Europe have served to increase Greek debt. Later on, Merkel decided, probably in the name of the other officials named, that the European Union needed joint fiscal policy and regulation. Thus, though every member was not pleased, the finance ministers dutifully signed the documents. Now every member will have its budget, its deficit and its budget practices approved. Whatever euphemism is used, this is the truth.

KT BR KORKU FLM; AVRUPA EKONOMS VE 2012

09 01 2013

Kresel sistem 2012 ylnda da kresel krizi yenemedi. Eer her yl bir set olarak dnrsek, kresel kriz ilk setten bu yana btn setleri ald ve 5-0 ne geti. Krizle mcadele ise u ana kadar hibir ey yapamad. 2012 yl kayp bir yl olarak balad ve kayp bir yl olarak sona erd i. Hi kimse artk 2013 ylnda krizin sona ereceini iddia etmiyor. nk kriz ok daha uzun srecek. Neoliberalizmin belki de byk zellii, esas itibariyle kriz kavramn tanmamas veyahut baka bir deyile hibir gelimeyi veya olasl kriz olarak deerlendirmemesi. Neoliberalizm hemen her gelime karsnda, onu kendi lehine kullanmann bir yolunu aryor ve hemen her gelimeden kar retiyor. Btn dnyada reel sektr byk sorun yaasa da, hemen her i kolu ciddi kayplar kaydetse de, mali sektr muaz zam llerde kar etmeye devam ediyor. O nedenle dnya ekonomisinin bu evresinin finans sektrnn stnlnde ve basksnda geen, finans sektrn dndaki herkesin kaybettii bir dnem olduunu savunabiliriz Kredi Derecelendirme Kurulular 2012 ylnda ekonomi dnyasnda en ok konuulan ve tartlan konu kredi derecelendirme kurulularyd. zellikle Avrupa lk elerinin lke notlarnn dmesi, bir bakma kresel ekonominin temel gstergesi halindeydi. Nitekim Ocak 2012de Standart & Poor's (S&P) A vro Blgesi'ndeki 9 lkenin ve Fitchde 5 lkenin notunu drd. Bu gelime 2012nin nasl bir yl olacana da k tutuyordu. Buna gre Avusturya, Fransa, Malta, Slovakya, Gney Kbrs, talya, Portekiz ve spanya'nn kredi notlar dt. Standart & Poor's ve Fitchin ardndan Moodys de ubat aynda alt Avro Blgesi ye lkenin notunu drd. Moodysin bu hamlesinden yine talya, Portekiz, Slovakya, Slovenya ve Malta ile spanya etkilendi. Sonraki aylarda da zellikle Standart & Poor's ve Moody's de spanya'nn kredi notunu drmeye devam ettiler. Moody's yln sonuna doru Fransa'nn ''Aaa'' olan kredi notunu bir kademe drerek ''Aa1''e ekti, notun grnmn negatifte brakt. Kredi derecelendirme kurulularnn lke ekonomileri zerinde belirleyici etkisi btn 2012 yl boyunca yksek oldu. 2012de Umut 2013 idi Elbette kresel ekonomik sistem zerinde en yksek seviyede belirleyicilii olan sadece kredi derecelendirme kurulular deildi. 2012 ylnda Avrupa Komisyonu, Dnya Bankas ve Uluslararas Para Fonu da hem raporlar ve hem de st dzey yneticilerinin aklama ve beyanatlaryla etkili oldular. Her kurulu da btn yl boyunca dikkatli ve tedirgin mesajlar verdiler. Her kuruluun da verdii mesajlarn toplamnn zeti, ktmserlik idi. Dnya Bankasnn yl boyunca tad kayg; in, Hindistan ve Brezilya bata olmak zere gelimekte olan lkelerdeki bymenin yavalamas halinde kresel sistemin bloke olmasyd. Dnya Bankas gelimekte olan lkelerde grlen yavalama nedeniyle 2012 yl kresel byme

tahminini %3,6 seviyesinden %3,1 seviyesine indirdi. Uluslararas Para Fonu da ayn konudaki tahminini %4 seviyesinden %3,3 s eviyesine indirdi. OECDnin verileri de hem Dnya Bankasnn hem de Uluslararas Para Fonunun ngrleri ile paralellik gsterdi. Burada elbette belirtmekte fayda var; Mevcut konjonktrel deerler dikkate alndnda %0n zerindeki her saysal veri byme anlamna gelmiyor. %3 dahi bazen gn kurtarmaya yetmeyebiliyor. Hatta in gibi devler iin %7-%8 dahi patinaj anlamna gelebiliyor. Her durumda 2012 iin kresel ekonomide bymenin azalmas, ABD ekonomisinde byme hznn yavalamas, Avro Blgesinde de negatif bymenin yaanmas ve 2013 ylnda 2012 ylna kyasla daha iyi rakamlar kaydedilmesi ngrld . Avrupa stikrar Fonu- ESM Fakat Avrupa Birlii iin 2012 ylnda Yunanistan kayg kayna olsa da, spanya ve talya byk korku oldu. Her iki lkede de artan isizlik, reel sektrde daralma, resesyon, siyasi istikrarszlk endiesi ve elbette bunlarn toplamnn arpan etkisi Avro Blgesi iin soukkanllkla karlanmas zor bir durumdu. 2012deki nemli gelimelerden bir tanesi de G -20 doruk toplantsnda Uluslararas Para Fonunun kaynaklarnn 430 milyar USD artrlmas karar alnmasyd. Bir dieri de phesiz Avro Blgesi maliye bakanlar, 500 milyar EUR tutarnda daimi kurtarma fonu Avrupa stikrar Mekanizmas'n (ESM) hizmete sokmas oldu. ESM Avrupa Mali stikrar Fonu'nun (EFSF) yerini ald. EFSF 192 milyar EUR harcayarak Yunanistan, rlanda ve Portekiz'in kurtarlmasnda kullanlmt. Muhtemelen ufuk izgisindeki kara bulutlara bakan Avro Blgesi, gelecek iin -2013 de olabilir- spanya ve talyay dnerek ESMyi tasarlad. ESM krizdeki hkmetlere dorudan kredi verecek. Ayrca tahvil piyasalarna mdahalede bulunacak ve hatta bankalara dorudan sermaye enjekte edecek. ESM 2013 ylnn ortasna kadar EFSF ile birlikte faaliyet gsterecek. ESM 700 milyar EUR sermaye gcne sahi p olacak. 2012 ylnda uzun sren pazarlklarn ve tartmalarn ardndan kurulan ve aslnda 2014 ylndan itibaren ilerlik kazanmas ngrlen ESM grndnden ok daha kritik bir konu. nk ESMin devreye girmesi, Avrupa Birliinin bir mutasyon yaad anlamna geldi. Avrupa Birlii uzun zamandr, bir zamanlar olduu gibi deil. Balarda insan merkezli ve bar odakl odakl olan, farkllklar zenginlik ve her konuyu ibirlii olana sayan sevimli Avrupa Birlii 90larla beraber bu grnmden hzla uzaklat ve her geen yl giderek fazla piyasalara ve lobilere teslim oldu. Avrupa Demokrasiden Vazgeti Avrupada yaanan bor krizi, Avrupann entelektel boyutta zmesi gereken bir sorunu da ortaya koydu. Avrupa Birlii iin artk kimlik sorunu geride kald. Belki de hi olmamt. Avrupa Birlii kendisini tanmlamaktan vazgeti. Avrupa Birliinin kime ve neye gre tarif edileceini artk umursamyor. Avrupa Birlii temel ilkelerin yorumu ve yorumlarn gelitirilmesi hususundan da vazgeti. nk 2012 ylnda g rld ki, Avrupa Birlii mali piyasalarn ve o piyasalarla alan sektrlerin lobilerinin ittifakdr. Ayrca 2012 ylnda anlald ki, Avrupa Birliinin Avrupa kurumlar veya Avrupal semenler, vergi deyenler, vatandalar ve saire ynetmez. Avrupa Birliinin ynetenler 5 -6 kiidir; AB Bakan Herman von Rompuy, AB D Politika Yksek Temsilcisi Catherine Ashton, Avrogrup Bakan Jean -Claude Juncker, Avrupa Merkez Bankas Bakan Mario Draghi, Almanya anslyesi Angela Merkel ve Uluslararas Para Fonu bakan Christine Lagarde Esasen bu durum son derecede vahim bir durum. nk Avrupa Birliinin demokrasiden vazgetiini, demokrasi sonras dneme getiini ve teknokratlar ynetimini balattn ortaya koyuyor. Bunu somut bir rnekle izah etmek yerinde olabilir; Avrupa Birliinde yaayan semenler, kamuoyu ve hatta onlarn setii yneticiler, parlamenterler ve bakanlar Yunanistann borlarn demenin doru olmadn dnebilirler. Bu konuyu Avrupa Birliinin haricinde bir mesele olarak deerlendirebilirler. Fakat Avrupa Birliine hakim olan piyasalarn ve lobilerin karlar ise Avrupallarn ellerini ceplerine atp Yunanistana yardm gndermelerini gerektirebilir. O halde, Avrupallar bunu istemese de, hatta btn Yunanistan buna isyan etse de, teknokratlar uygun grd karar al r ve uygular. nk teknokratlar bunun teknik olarak herkes iin faydal olduuna hkmeder. Avrupa Birliinde artk gerek seimlerde sadece bir masann etrafn dolduracak sayda yetkili oy kullanyor! Avrupada 2012 ylnda yaanan krizle mcadele srecinde alnan btn tedbirler sadece Yunanistann borcunu artrd. Devamnda ise Merkel muhtemelen dier sz konusu isimleri temsil ederek - krizden k yolu iin Avrupa Birliinde ortak maliye politikas ve ortak mali denetim gerektiine karar verdi. Bylece -her Birlik yesi bundan memnun olmasa da- Avro Blgesinin maliye bakanlar nlerine konulan ktlar imzalad. Artk her ye lke btesini, bte an, bte uygulamalarn onaylatacak. Kim hangi kelimelendirmeyi tercih ederse etsin, gerek bu!

WHAT HAS SUPER MARIO DONE?

19 02 2013

The president of the super bank, man of super authority Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, has taken a critical step last autumn and announced that the bank would buy off the state bonds of troubled states from secondary markets. What has happened later? Lets take a look. In September 2002, Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that policy makers had come to agreement over a limitless bond purchase programme as part of efforts to regain control of interest rates in the Eurozone. The ECB continued with its record low indicator rate of 0.75 percent. Following this decision, Draghi told the press that the ECB should be in a position to influence interest rates across the Eurozone. Bloomberg quoted Draghi saying Under suitable circumstances, we will have fully active backup in order to avoid potentially disastrous scenarios arising from potentially heavy threats to price stability in the Eurozone. This is how the process began for Super Mario on the 26th of June 2012. In this statement, which should be considered a turning point, Draghi in practice stated the following: ECB intervention is necessary in order to regain control of interest rates and to protect the Euro in the fragmented Eurozone economy.

This has been a major development for the centralisation of finance policy and regulation in Europe. Thanks to this formulation, the European Union, which has always been criticised for its cumbersome structure, has avoided taking up risks. The advantage of this new method is that applying for aid, such as initiating the bond purchases of the ECB using the recovery fund is now within the initiative of governments of countries like Spain and Italy. Super Mario has summarised the situation as follows: Governments should be prepared to activate the EFSF/ESM in the bonds market with strict and active conditions when they feel the need due to exceptional finance market circumstances or risks to fiscal stability arise. Bond purchases will be fully sterilised and therefore the purchases will have a neutral influence on the money supply. Super Mario has thus said that governments of crisis countries can seek the help of the European Stability Mechanism in the bond markets when they feel the need. Furthermore, by declaring that the ECB can stop bond purchases if the governments do not fulfil stipulated conditions , he has pointed out the security mechanism of the system. If a country enters a crisis, finds that its finance market is becoming destabilised, it can apply directly to the ECB to buy its bonds, provided that it agrees to strict and effective regulation. If the rules are not followed, the ECB can withdraw. But the expectation that bond purchases will not have any effect on the money supply is a strange one. In September 2012, ECB President Super Mario did not change interest rates, declared three years to be the most effective t erm and said that interventions without government support could not be fully effective. Super Marios" attitude was geared towards easing anxiety over the collapse of the Euro, or European withdrawal from the Euro and to end fears of investors. Super Marios statements were effective and Spains ten year bond interest rates dropped by 35 basis points to 6.06 percent. This was the lowest rate for Spain in three months. Similarly, Italian ten year bond interest rates fell by 17 basis points to 5.35 percent. Meanwhile, in a development Super Mario had not anticipated, the ECBs bo nd purchase plan served to lower the cost of borrowing for countries not in immediate need of this, such as France and Belgium, rather than troubled countries such as Spain and Italy. As the markets reacted to the ECBs bond purchase plan at the end of September 2012, the cost of borrowing for France and Belgium had fallen, but investors were not convinced about lending to Spain and Italy. Spains three year bond interests rose to 3.83 percent from 3.37 percent to which it had fallen. In the last week of November Super Mario announced that the ECB was ready to activate the programme for purchase of state bonds. The ECB President assured financial markets that the ECB was prepared to activate and implement the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme if the need was felt. In issuing this reassurance, Draghi underlined some fundamental requirements. The ECB will calm down financial markets and reassure confidence along with Eurozone governments. Meanwhile, governments must continue their reforms. There will be no compromises on this issue. On the last day of November 2012, Super Mario said everything necessary to protect the Euro will be done and that interv entions would be carried out when needed. Draghi further underlined that there would always be conditions for intervention and promised that there would be no random or uncalculated moves. For the same reason Draghi said confidence of the financial markets depended on governments, thus paying his respect to established balances. In December 2012 Draghi announced that he expected Eurozone recovery in the second half of 2013. This of course means that there is no hope for the first six months of the year. However, especially after Greeces rating was cut to the level of optional default by c redit ratings agency Standard and Poors (S&P), the Euro fell against other major currencies. As Bloomberg has also underlined, the ECB President Mario Draghi, nicknamed Super Mario, has risen in position. Super Mario became ECB President turned official i n charge of saving the European currency union. Later circumstances made Draghi almost the director of the European Union. Finally the ECB President Super Mario Draghi came to shoulder the prosperity of the Eurozone, the future of the Euro, the c onfidence of all bond markets, the identification of a common monetary policy for the European Union and the regulation of 6,000 banks in the European Union. of course the ECB, which is not accountable to any parliamentary supervision and Super Mario are outside of classical defined positions with their super tasks and super powers. Electorates, politicians, governments and other European institutions are not above Super Mario. This was the reason why Mario Draghi lowered expectations for growth by leaving the interests rates for the Eurozone at their record low level. The statement by Draghi that he was prepared to intervene in bond markets provided that government accepted fiscal and economic reform was the attitude of a man who sets the rules. In a statement Draghi made around the same time, he claimed that the economic weakness of the Eurozone would continue early in the new year and that recovery would begin later. In other words, he confirmed his previous statement to the effect that recovery would begin in the second part of 2013. Following Draghis announcements on the 30th of November that everything necessary to protect the Euro will be done and that interventions would be carried out when needed, Spanish and Italian bo rrowing costs began to fall. Meanwhile the 17 members strong Eurozone has continued to contract in the third quarter of 2012 and the zone entered recession. Draghi announced that the economy of the Eurozone would contract by 0.5 percent in 2012 according to ECB predictions. The ECB has also revised the contraction expectations for the Eurozone in 2013 to 0.3 from 0.5 percent. According to Mario Draghis statements the ECB has revised its inflation expectations for 2013 to 1.6 percent from 1.9 percent and now expects inflation to be 1.4 percent in 2014. Even under these circumstances there will be many difficulties for the Eurozone in 2015. When Super Mario walked in to his first board meeting on the 10th of January 2012, he faced some pressing issues. Although there was no great urgency over crisis measures or interventions, the files over which alarm bells could ring were as follows: What will happen if the increase in Spanish debt reaches a critical level and an intervention is needed despite prevailing optimism? What will happen if chaos and instability arises in Italy after the elections? Will the continuing austerity measures in Greece be interrupted? Will Greece go bankrupt again? What will happen once the fifth recovery operation of the European Union is launched in Southern Cyprus? Will Portugal and Ireland demand new recovery packages? How will Europe be affected if the USA cannot avoid a fiscal cliff in march or if there are a series of gradual deadlocks in the US fiscal system? For 2013, of which the first six months will be poor, Super Mario has his priorities as issuing confidence to the markets and keeping the peace. The policy of low interest rates and the announcement that unlimited bond purchases may be made carry a great weight towards these aims. Trust indicators have risen considerably due to these factors. hence the ECB decision to keep interests low. However, there is an important point in Draghis announcements. His claim that geopolitical problems and imbalances in leading industrialised nations have the poten tial to negatively affect economic growth for longer than it can now be predicted after the busy meeting on the 10th of January should not be overlooked. Following Super Marios determined statements, especially regarding the limitless purchase of bonds, t he ECB did not have to make any bond purchases. Those who argued that the main crisis Europe faced was a crisis of confidence were not wrong. However if rising confidence falls again, this time it will be difficult to compensate. If Super Mario is bluffing and the markets see his hand...

SPER MARO NE YAPTI?

16 01 2013

Sper bankann bakan, sper yetkili adam Avrupa Merkez Bankas Bakan Mario Draghi getiimiz sonbaharda ok kritik bir adm att ve Bankann sorunlu lkelerin devle t tahvillerini ikincil piyasalardan alacan alacan aklad. Ama ondan sonra neler oldu? Bir bakmak lazm! Avrupa Merkez Bankas (AMB) Bakan Mario Draghi Eyll 2012de politika yapclarnn, Avro Blgesi'nde faiz orannn kontrol n yeniden elde etme abalar ile birlikte, snrsz tahvil alm program konusunda anlamaya vardklarn aklad. AMB gsterge faizini %0,75 ile rekor orand a dk seviyede tutma karar ald. Bu kararn alnd toplantnn sonrasnda basna konuan Draghi, AMB'nin, faiz orannn Av ro Blgesi'ndeki tm lkelerde aktarmn salayacak bir pozisyonda olmas gerektiini syledi. Bloomberge gre Draghi, Avro Blgesi'nde fiyat istikrarna ynelik potansiyel ar tehditleri olan ykc senaryolardan kanmak iin, uygun koullar altnda, tam etkin bir dayanaa sahip olacaz dedi. Aslnda Sper Mario iin de 26 Haziran 2012de sre byle balad. Draghi, aslnd a milat saylmaya uygun aklamasnda zetle unu ifade etti; Paralara ayrlm Avro Blgesi ekonomisinde faizlerin kontroln tekrar ele alabilmek ve Avroyu koruyabilmek iin AMB'nin mdahalesinin gereklidir. Bu sz Avrupada finans politikalarnn ve denetiminin merkezilemesi iin ok byk bir gelime oldu. Ayrca hantal yaps n edeniyle her zaman kyasya eletirilen Avrupa Birlii bu formlasyon sayesinde risk stlenmekten kurtuldu. nk bu yeni metodolojinin getirdii avantajla, rnein kurtarma fonundan yardm talebinde bulunarak AMB'nin tahvil almlarn balatmak, spanya ve talya gibi lkelerin hkmetlerine bal hale geldi. Nitekim Sper Mario da durumu u szlerle zetledi; Hkmetler, ihtiya duyduklarnda, sk ve etkin koullarla ile birlikte, istisnai finans piyasas durumlar ve finansal ist ikrara ynelik riskler ortaya kt zaman, tahvil piyasasnda FFSF/ESM'i aktif hale getirmeye hazr olmal. Tahvil almlar tam olarak sterilize edilecek ve bu nedenle, almlarn para arz zerindeki etkisi ntr kalacak. Yani Sper Mario, krizdeki lkelerin hkmetlerinin ihtiya olutuunda tahvil piyasalar iin Avrupa stikrar Mekanizmasndan yardm alabileceini syledi. Ayrca AMBnin, hkmetlerin koullar yerine getirmemesi durumunda tahvil almlarn durdurma hakkn sakl tuttuu nu da ilan ederek, sistemdeki gvenlik mekanizmasn ilan etti. Eer bir lke krize girerse, finans piyasalarnn istikrar bozuluyorsa, sk ve etkili denetim artna uymas halinde dorudan AMBden tahvillerini almasn talep edebilecek. ayet kurallara uymazsa, AMB de vazgeme hakkna sahi p olacak. Ama tahvil almlarnn para arz zerinde hi etkisi olmamas biraz tuhaf bir beklenti. Eyll 2012de AMB Bakan Sper Mario Faiz oranlarn deitirmedi, en etkili vade olarak3 yl aklad ve hkmetlerin destei olmadan planlanan mdahalelerin etkili olmayacan aklad. Sper Marionun bu tutumuyla temel hedefi, Avronun kebileceini, Avrupann Avrodan geri dnebileceine ilikin kayglar bitirmek ve yatrmclarn korkularna son vermekti. Sper Marionun aklamalar etkili oldu ve spanyann 10 yllk tahvil faizleri 35 baz puan gerileyerek %6.06 oldu. Bu rakam spanya iin son 3,5 ayn en dk seviyeyi grd. Ayn ekilde 10 yllk talyan tahvil faizleri de 17 baz puan gerileyerek %5.35 oldu. Ama bu arada Sper Marionun hesaplamad bir gelime oldu ve AMB'nin tahvil alm plan, spanya ve talya'dan ok Fransa ve Belika gibi ihtiyac olmayan lkelerin borlanma maliyetlerini drd. Eyll 2012nin sonlarnda piyasalar AMBnin tahvil alm planna r eaksiyon verirken, Fransa ve Belika'daki borlanma maliyetlerini aa ekti, fakat yatrmclar spanya ve talyaya bor vermeye ikna olmad. spanyann 3 yllk tahvil faizleri geriledii %3.37den yeniden %3,83'e kt. Kasm aynn son haftasnda Sper Mario AMB'nin lke tahvil alm programn aktif hale getirmeye hazr olduunu aklad. AMB Bakan, AMB'nin Dorudan Parasal lemler (OMT) programn, ihtiya duyulduunda, harekete geirmeye ve uygulamaya hazr olduu kon usunda finans piyasalarna gvence verdi. Draghi bu gvenceyi verirken, baz temel gerekliliklerin de altn izdi. AMB Avro Blgesi hkmetleri ile birlikte, mali piyasalar sakinletirecek ve gveni yeniden temin edecek. Ama hkmetler de reformlarna devam edecek. Bu kon uda taviz olmayacak. Sper Mario Kasm 2012nin son gnnde de Avroyu korumak iin her ne gerekiyorsa yaplacan ve ayrca mdahaleye ihtiya duyulduunda mdahale edileceini aklad. Draghi bunun yan sra mdahale iin her zaman artlar olacan vurgulayarak, rastgele ve hesapsz hibir adm atlmayacan da taahht etmi oldu. Ayn nedenle Draghi, finans piyasalarnda gvenin hkmetlerin ellerinde olduunu vurgulayarak, dengelere hassasiyet gsterdi. Aralk 2012de Draghi 2013 ylnn ikinci yarsnda Avro Blgesi ekonomilerinde toparlanma beklediini aklad. Elbette bu aklama ilk alt aydan umut yok anlamn da ieriyor. Ama zellikle kredi derecelendirme kuruluu Standard & Poors'un (S&P) Yunanistann kredi no tunu tercihli temerrt seviyesine indirmesinin ardndan Avro da nemli para birimlerinin byk blm karsnda deer yitirdi. Bloombergin de altn izdii gibi Sper Mario diye de anlan AMB Bakan Mario Draghi, giderek daha farkl bir konuma tand. Sper Mario ilk nce AMB Bakanlndan Avrupa'nn para birliini kurtarma grevlisine dnt. Ama daha sonra artlar Draghiyi adeta Avrupa Birliinin direktr haline getirdi. Nihayetinde AMB Bakan Sper Mario Avro Blgesinin selametini, Avronun akbetini, btn tahvil piyasalarnn gvenini, Birliin ortak maliye politikasnn tespitini ve ayn blgedeki 6,000 bankann denetimini stlendi. Elbette hibir surette parlamenter denetime tabii olmayan AMB ve Sper Mario, bu sper devler ve sper yetkilerle klasik ve allagelmi klielerin dnda bir pozisyonda bulunuyor. Semen ler, siyasiler, hkmetler, dier Avrupa kurumlar Sper Marionun stnde deil Nitekim Mario Draghinin Aralk 2012de Avro Blgesinin politika faizini rekor dk seviyede brakarak byme tahminlerini aa ekmesi de bundan kaynakland. Draghinin, hkmetlerin mali ve ekonomik reform uygulamay kabul etmesi durumunda tahvil piyasalarna mdahale etmeye hazr olduunu yinelemesi de, kural koyan bir tavrd. Draghi ayn gnlerde yapt bir baka aklamada da Avro Blgesi'nd e ekonomik

zayfln, yeni yln balarnda da sreceini ve toparlanma daha sonra balayacan syledi. Dier bir deyile daha nce yapt aklamadaki 2013 ylnda iyileme ikinci alt ayda olacak szn teyit etmi oldu. Draghinin 30 Kasm 2012de Avroyu korumak iin he r ne gerekiyorsa yaplacan ve ayrca mdahaleye ihtiya duyulduunda mdahale edileceini aklamasnn ardndan talyan ve spanyol tahvil faizleri de geti. Bu arada 17 yeli Avro Blgesi 2012 ylnn nc eyreinde de darald ve blge resesyona girdi. Draghi, AMB'nin 2012 ylna ilikin tahminine gre Avro Blgesinde ekonominin %0,5 daralacan aklad. AMB ayrca, 2013 yl iin ekonominin daralma tahminini %0,5'ten %0,3'e revize etti Mario Draghinin aklamalarna gre AMB 2013 yl iin enflasyon tahminini %1,9dan %1,6'ya revize etti ve 2014 yl iin %1,4 dzeyinde enflasyon tahmininde bulundu. AMBye gre Avro Blgesi her ey yolunda giderse 2014 ylnda %1 byme yaayacak. Ama bu artl arda dahi Avro Blgesinde 2015 ylnda dahi birok eyin yolunda olmayaca kesin gibi Sper Mario 10 Ocak 2012de ynetim kurulu toplantsnda girdiinde masasnda u gerekler de vard. Her ne kadar kriz nleml eri ve mdahaleleri acil olmasa da, her an sirenlerin almasna neden olabilecek dosyalar yle; Eer iyimser havaya ramen spanya'nn borlarndaki art kritik bir noktaya ularsa ve mdahale gerekirse ne olacak? , talya'da sei mlerin ardndan kaos veya istikrarszlk doarsa ne olacak? Yunanistan'da devam eden tasarruf tedbirleri kesintiye urar m? Yunani stan bir kez daha iflas eder mi? Avro Blgenin beinci kurtarma operasyonu Gney Kbrs'a yapldnda neler yaanacak? Portekiz ve rlanda yen iden kurtarma paketi talep ederler mi? ABDde Mart aynda veya ncesinde bte hazrlnda mali uurum veya kk ve aamal mali uurumlar yaanrsa, Avrupa bundan nasl etkilenir? Sper Mario iin ilk alt ay kt geecek 2013 ylnda nceliklerin banda piyasalara gven verme ve skuneti artrma geliyor. Bunun iin faizleri dk tutma politikas ve snrsz tahvil alnabilecei aklamas byk deer tayor. Bu sayede gven gstergelerindeki kayda deer iyilemeler yaand. Bu nedenle AMB faizleri deitirmedi ve aynen muhafaza etti. Ama Sper Marionun son aklamalarnda ne mli bir vurgu var. 10 Ocaktaki ykl gndemli ynetim kurulu toplantsnn ardndan nde gelen sanayilemi lkelerdeki jeopolitik sorunlar ve de ngesizlikler, ekonomik bymeyi, imdilerde tahmin edildiinden daha uzun sreli olumsuz etkileme potansiyeli tayor demesi, ph esiz daima gz nnde tutulmal. Sper Marionun kararl aklamalarnn ardndan, zellikle snrsz tahvil alnabileceini sylemesinden sonra aslnda AMBnn hi tahvil almas gerekmedi. Grld gibi Avrupann yaad asl byk krizin gven krizi olduunu savunanlar haksz deilmi. Ama artma eilimi gsteren gven ayet yeniden azalrsa, bu defa telafisi ok daha zor olabilir. Eer Sper Mario blf yapyorsa ve piyasalar bunu anlarsa

WHO RULES EUROPE?

19 02 2013

We cannot answer any questions about Europe without answering this one. Of course, congenial answers with flashy words are possible. For example, we may say Europe rules Europe or In Europe the rules have power, Eur ope is run by its rules. We may even talk about a shared mind. We may enrich the description further with talk of historical roots, the light of civilisation and identity woven into culture. The worst dish can be made edible with some sauce and spices. But if we want to be honest and realistic, we have to look past these phrases. We know that Europe is not run by national governments or parliaments. There has been a transfer of sovereignty. There are many European institutions. The Council, the Commission, the Parliament are just some of them. They decide on behalf of national states through authority derived from them. Member states implement these decisions obediently. The decisions may go beyond the mandate of government. The electorate may be upset. These do not matter. The European institutions with uncertain authority derived from uncertain sources give the command and national administrations carry it out like well drilled soldiers. In Europe the rules apply so long as they are useful. An example is Brussels behaviour during each and every phase of negotiations with Turkey. Of course there are Europeans in European institutions and decision making mechanisms. But these Europeans are of a different kind than other Europeans. For example, Manuel, who lives in Madrid and is unemployed is in a different situation compared to Angela, who works a part time job in order to raise her child alone. Then, Manuel Barosso, who approves the decision to cut Manuels unemployment benefit is di fferent from Angela Merkel who defends the strictest austerity in order to overcome the crisis. Manuel in Madrid may determine national government come election time. But that is all that Manuel can do. For the government elected with his vote does not ask him the policies to be followed. They ask Manuel Barosso. Manuel from Madrid may shout in the streets until the morning and no one will hear him. He will demand from the government not to realise the austerity measures. But his government will implement them anyway. The government in Madrid is accountable not to Manuel in the street but to Manuel Barosso. Angela from Berlin is a lit bit more assured. Her country is the engine of Europe. No one in Europe can tell her namesake Angela Merkel what to do. Angela Merkel on the other hand can say whatever she likes to anyone, for example the government in Madrid where the sad and angry Manuel lives. These with the money set the rules. But the Berliner Angela, who is trying to raise her child alone and is working part time jobs cannot get the answer to the question why she is having to pay the debt accrued by Greeces state bombs against her will. Both Angela and Merkel learned at school that the European Union is run by rules. The names might change but the rules would remain the same. Thus the European Union would exist in peace and quiet. What were these rules? Was the masquerade during the European Constitution process

a part of the rules? When member states rejected the draft European Constitution, the process of ratification was suspended. The draft underwent some cosmetic changes, renamed the Lisbon Treaty and ratified without referenda in order to reduce the risks. Ireland had to hold a referendum as per its constitution. The Irish people rejected the Lisbon Treaty by 53.4 percent of the vote in the first th th referendum held on the 12 of June 2008. A second election was held on the 4 of October 2009 and the people approved the original treaty by 67.13 percent of the vote. They probably did not want to go to the polls every week until the treaty was approved. Is this democracy? At school both Angela and Manuel learned that they lived in a democratic system of which they could be proud. But is the mess over budgetary discipline in line with this system? There is someone who is more unfortunate than Angela and Manuel, Antonis. Antonis is from Athens and his trouble is that Prime Minister Antonis Samaras does not listen to him, but to the European Union. Having voted for government, Antonis demands that it answers to him, rather than the Troika inspectors who regularly visit Athens. Antonis is also concerned that whether he votes for Samaras or his opponent in the coming elections, nothing will change. The solution for Antonis might be voting for the extreme left or the extreme right. But he has tried this and it did not work. The European Union ensured that elections were held again so that parties which would form a desirable coalition would win. Antonis cannot understand what is happening. As far as he knew pay and other rights were vested, they could not be transferred or revoked. Antonis also seems to remember that a free market economy operated in the European Union. In a free market the winners would win and the losers would lose. The state does not interfere, it only regulates. Then why is the state saving those it chooses? The state ensures the profit targets of banks foreseen in yearly budgets with conjectural packages and the European Union helps it with bond exchanges and haircuts. Meanwhile the pensions of retirees, who are already searching for food in the garbage is being cut. Everybody knows that it was not Manuel who caused the crisis. Angela is blameless. Antonis fathers retirement pay had no impact on the deepening of the crisis. But Antonis, Manuel and Angela will have to pay the bill for the crisis together. They will have to pay for houses they never bought, credit they never wasted, holidays they never took and politics they did not support. In Europe, Europeans are having to put up with the bitter costs of policies they did not support, in a climate in which the state interferes with every field of the economy. Whether they vote for them or not, governments are formed which implement the decisions and directives of theEuropean Union. Europeans are distrustful of the European Union and its institutions. Although European institutions do not enjoy the support of Europeans, they decide on their future. Why should the Greek people be forced in to austerity if they do not want it? Why do the Irish have to accept a treaty to which they are opposed? Why do the Spanish and the Portuguese have to approve policies they do not agree with? Having spoken of rules so much we might take a look at the situation of the European Central Bank, which is based in Frankfurt and charged with maintaining the stability of the common currency Euro, used in 17 member states. The European Central Bank can have rapid and permanent impact on the markets in these countries. The European Central bank is not subject to any parliamentary regulation. Why? The European Central Bank can also fight the crisis by increasing the money supply and purchasing the state debt of troubled Eurozone countries. Who makes the decision on this? Who will pay for its cost? Will it be the decision makers or Manuel, Angela and Antonis? Once upon a time the European Union may have been human focused, it might have been a peace project, it might have been a realistic draft for a utopian future based on certain virtues. It is not so any longer. Today the European Union does not have a European identity. Europe is on the threshold of great problems; the European Union has not been able to solve any of its major issues, including that of identity. Had the European Union won greater support from Europeans in the past, it would have weathered the crisis better. had the processes of enlargement and deepening been set rules and a calendar, the European Unions position in the crisis would have been more comfortable.

AVRUPAYI KM YNETR?
16 01 2013

Bu sorunun cevabn bilmeden, Avrupa ile ilgili hibir sorunun cevabn bulmayz. Elbette ssl szlerin cazibesiyle sevimli cevaplar da verebiliriz. rnein diyebiliriz ki, Avrupay Avrupa ynetir veya Avrupada g kurallarndr. Avrupay kurallar ynetir. Hatta ortak akldan bile sz edebilir. Dilerseniz bunu tarihten gelen kkler, medeniyetin , kltrde kodlanan benlik gibi ok k ifadelerle daha da zenginletirebiliriz. Nihayetinde en kt yemek bile biraz sos ve baharat ile yenilebilir. Ama gereki olmak istiyorsak, drst cevap aryorsak bu szleri gz ard edebiliriz. Avrupay milli hkmetlerin ve parlamentolarn ynetmediini biliyoruz. Nihayetinde egemenlik devri var. Ayrca ok sayda Avrupa Kurumu var. Konsey, Komisyon, Parlamento, bunlarn sadece birka Onlar devletlerden aldklar yetkiyle, onlarn adna karar verirler. ye devletler de alnan kararlar uysallkla uygularlar. Bu kararlar hkmetlerin yetkisini aabilir. Hatta semen buna fkelenebilir. nemli deil. Kimin neden ne ne kadar yetkilendirdii belli olmayan Avrupa kurumlar syler, lkelerde ynetimler -adeta bir trendeki disiplinli asker gibi -yapar nk Avrupada kurallar ie yarad zaman uygulanr. Tpk Brkselin Avrupa Birlii -Trkiye ilikilerinin her safhasnda yapt gibi! Elbette Avrupa kurumlarnda karar mekanizmalarnda da Avrupallar yer alr. Ama o Avrupallar dier Avrupallardan farkldr. rnein Madridde yaayan isiz Manuel ve Berlinde tek bana ocuunu bytmek iin yar zamanl ite alan Angela bakadr. Manuelin isizlik yardmnn kesilmesine onay veren Manuel Barosso ve krizi amak iin en sert tasarruf tedbirlerini savunan Angela Merkel bakadr. Madriddeki Manuel lkesindeki seimlerde hkmeti belirler. Ama Manuelin elinden sadece bu kadar gelir. nk onun oy verdii hkmet izleyecei politikay ona sormaz, Manuel Barrossoya sorar. Madriddeki Manuel sokaklarda sabahlara kadar barsa da, s esini kimse duyamaz.

Manuel hkmetinin tasarruf tedbirlerini uygulamamasn ister. Ama hkmeti uygular. nk Manuelin hkmeti Manuele deil, Manuel Barossoya kar sorumludur. Berlindeki Angela kendisinden biraz daha emindir. nk lkesi Avrupann lokomotifidir. Yani Avrupada hi kimse onun oy verdii adana, Angela Merkele ne yapacan syleyemez. Ama Angela Merkel herkese, rnein zgn ve fkeli Manuelin yaad Madridteki h kmete istedii her eyi syler. nk altn olan kural koyar. Fakat Berlinde tek bana ocuk byten, birka tane yar zamanl ite alan Angela da u soruya cevap bulamaz; Neden ben istemediim halde, Yunanistann devlet tahvillerinden kaynaklanan borcunu dyorum? Angela da, Manuel de okul yllarnda Avrupa Birliini kurallarn ynettiini rendi. simler deiebilirdi, ama kurallar ayn kalrd. Bu sayede Birlik sulh ve skun iinde olurdu. Ama acaba bu kurallar neydi? rnein Avrupa Anayasas srecinde yaanan maskaralk kural myd? ye lkeler Avrupa Anayasas taslan ret edince, ye lkelerde onaylama sreci donduruldu. Taslakta birka kozmetik deiiklik yapld, ad Lizbon Antlamas diye deitirildi ve sonra risk almamak iin referandumlara sunulmadan onayland rlanda anayasas nedeniyle referanduma gitti. rlanda halk Lizbon Anlamas'n, 12 Haziran 2008'de dzenlenen ilk referandumda %53,4 "hayr" oyuyla geri evirdi. Sonra 4 Ekim 2009da yeniden referandum dzenlendi ve halk %67.13 ile anlamaya "evet" dedi. Muhtemelen evet kana kadar her Pazar sabah oy kullanmaya gitmek istemediler. Nerede kald demokrasi? Okullarda hem Angela hem de Manuel unu renmilerdi; Demokratik bir sistemde yayorlard, bununla g urur duyabilirlerdi. Ama acaba bte disiplini konusunda yaanan kepazelik de bu kapsamda yer alr m? Belki Angela ve Manuelden daha anssz birisi varsa, o da Antonis. Atinada yaayan Antonis undan ikyeti. Babakan Anton is Samaras onun dediklerini deil, Avrupa Birliinin dediklerini yapyor. Antonisin oy verdii hkmetten beklentisi Atinaya dzenli olarak gelen Troyka tefti heyetini deil, kendisini dinlemesi. Antonis unu grmekten de kaygl. Bir dahaki seimde Samarasa deil de, onun rakib ine oy verse de, hibir ey deimeyecek. Atonis iin zm belki ar sa veya ar sola oy vermek olabilir. Ama bunu daha nce denedi ve ie yaramad. Bu yzden Yunanistan seimleri -Avrupa Birliinin istedii koalisyonu kuracak partilerin kazanmas iin- tekrarlamak zorunda kald. Antonis olup bitene akl-sr erdiremiyor. Onun bildiine gre maalar ve dier zlk haklar, mktesep hakt, kazanlm hakt; Devredilemezdi, geri alnamazd. Ayrca Antonis doru hatrladna da emin; Avrupa Birliinde serbest pazar ekonomisi vard. Serbest pazarda kazanan kazanr, kaybeden kaybeder. Devlet karmaz. Devlet sadece denetler. O halde devlet neden dilediklerini kurtaryor? O halde devlet ned en sadece bankalarn yllk bilanolarnda ngrd kar hedeflerini konjonktrel yardm ile kurtaryor, Birlik ona tahvil takas ve sa tra ile yardm ediyor? Pekl, neden pten beslenen emeklilerin maalarnda neden kesinti yaplyor? Herkes biliyor; Krizi Manuel karmad. Bu krizde Angelann suu yok. Krizin derinlemesinde Antonisin babasnn emekli maann da etkisi olmad. Ama Antonis, Manuel ve Angela krizin faturasn beraberce deyecekler. Almadklar evler, batrmadklar kredi ler, yapmadklar tatiller ve destek vermedikleri siyaset iin Avrupada Avrupallar devletin ekonominin her safhasna mdahale ettii bir iklimde, desteklemedikleri politikalarn ac sonularnn faturasn deyerek yayorlar. Ama oy verseler de, vermeseler de, hkmetler kuruluyor ve Avrupa Birliinin kararlarn, direktifl erini uyguluyor. Avrupallar Avrupaya ve Avrupa kurumlarna kar gvensizlik duyuyor. Ama Avrupa kurumlar onlardan destek grmese de, onlarn geleceklerine karar veriyor. Eer Yunan halk tasarruf yapmak istemiyorsa, neden buna mecbur olsun? ayet rlandallar bir anlamaya karlarsa, neden onu ret etmeleri kabul edilmiyor? Neden spanyollar ve Portekizliler ret ettikleri politikalarn benimsemek zorundalar? O kadar ok kurallardan sz ettikten sonra; Merkezi Frankfurtta bulunan Avrupa Merkez Bankas 17 Avrupa lkesinde geerli olan ortak para birimi Avronun istikrarn korumakla grevli. Avrupa Merkez Bankas piyasalara hzl ve kalc etki edebiliyor. Ayrca Avrupa Merkez Bankas u anda herhangi bir parlamenter kontrole tabi deil! Neden? Ayrca Avrupa Merkez Bankas para arzn artrarak ve skntdaki Avro lkelerinin devlet tahvillerini alarak krize kar nlem alyor. Bunun kararn kim ald? Bunun maliyetini kim deyecek? Karar alanlar m? Yoksa yine Manuel, Angela ve Antonis mi? Bir zamanlar Avrupa Birlii belki insan odaklyd, bar projesiydi, baz erdemlerin besledii topik bir gelecein gereki bir tasla idi. Ama artk deil. nk artk Avrupa Birlii ve Avrupa Avrupal kimliine ait deil. Avrupa ok byk sorunlarn eiinde; Avrupa Birlii daha nce bata kimlik sorunu olmak zere hibir sorununu zmedi. Eer Avrupa Birlii geen zaman zarfnda Avrupallarn daha fazla desteini kazansayd, bu krizde daha gl dururdu. Eer Avrupa Birlii hem genileme hem de derinleme srelerini kurall ve takvimli bir hale getirseydi, kriz srasnda kesinlikle daha konforlu bir pozisyon elde ederdi.

POVERTY AND UNEMPLOYMENT TRIGGER EACH OTHER

19 02 2013

Europes debt crisis enters a new phase The fiscal fire in Europe is growing. Although optimism is the order of the day, the flames have engulfed the system. The latest statistical data paint a striking picture. Two conclusions may be surmised. The first conclusion is that the measures put into practice since 2007 have only led to increased banking profits. The real sector was sacrificed to this end. The standards of living of entire societies was also sacrificed to this end. The second conclusion is that since the European Union will insist on its mistakes through the European Stability Mechanism, joint fiscal policy an regulation, banks stand to make profits in the future as well. The real sector and the standards of living of societies will continue to be sacrificed to this end. Events in Poland stand in support of this claim. Charities such as Caritas have been sending piles of aid of food, clothing and schooling material to the country. Yet it is not possible for non-governmental organisations to bear the entire burden. The homeless and the poor make up 7 percent of the population of Poland. This segment of the population numbers 2,5 million strong. Young adults, unemployed women, single mothers are among the groups who are most directly threatened by poverty. Euronewshas reported that these groups depend on soup kitchens for

nourishment. These soup kitchens are ran by the European Food Programme for the Poor. The programme depends on aid from the European Union and will be shut down soon. 90 percent of the total budget of 27 food banks depends on European aid. This budget will be lowered by 40 percent. The programme which costs EUR 500 million in total is deemed too expensive by some countries. 1.5 million people in Poland and 18 million people throughout the European Union benefit from the programme. However Germany, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic want the 2014 budget of the European Union to be lower. Of course things would have been different had these payments benefited super rich banks instead of the poor. But it seems that Europe has given up on the Europeans. Those who want to put it delicately say many states have lost room for fiscal manoeuvring due to falling tax revenue and rising social spending. Employment data for November also show that the poor course of the European Union continues. The unemployment rate is the Eurozone in November 2012 was 11.8 percent. Unemployment had been 11.7 percent in October 2012. Many people may deem a rise of 0.1 percent insignificant. But this rise of 0.1 percent not only sets a new record, it also shows that the measures taken are not working. Given that the Eurozone is expected to be stagnant in 2013, we may conclude that unemployment will continue to rise in the European Union throughout the year. If it is only in Ireland, which has just begun to recover from a disastrous bankruptcy, that unemployment is falling in Europe which has a population of half a billion, then things look bad. In the Eurozone, no country other than Germany seems to be recovering. In the 27 countries of the European Union average unemployment stands at 10.7 percent. According to the latest data, the country with the highest rate of unemployment in the Eurozone is Greece. In Greece unemployment has reached 26.6 percent. Second comes Spain with 26.6 percent unemployment, the fourth largest economy of the Eurozone which is experiencing a heavy crisis. Youth unemployment in both countries is around 57 percent. In the Eurozone youth unemployment is 24.4 percent while the European Union in general follows closely with 23.7 percent. In high risk countries the situation compared with 12 months ago is as follows: the highest rise in unemployment has taken place in Greece as expected. Unemployment in Greece has risen from 18.9 percent to 26 percent. It has been followed by Southern Cyprus which recorded a rise from 9.5 percent to 14 percent unemployment. of the two problematic countries of the Iberian peninsula, unemployment in Spain rose from 23 percent to 26.6 percent while in Portugal it rose from 14.1 percent to 16.3 percent. In summary, the scariest part of the film is still to come in high risk countries. According to a report a total of 19 million people are unemployed in the common currency zone. According to the latest data a total of 26 million people are unemployed in the European Union. From October to November 2011, 113,000 people lost their jobs in the Eurozone. According to the European statistical agency Eurostat the number of unemployed people rose by 2 million from November 2011 to November 2012. In other words, while the number of soup kitchens in Europe will continue to rise in 2013, their budget will become a more frequent topic of discussion. These figures show that poverty has become an important issue in Europe and that it will rapidly become chronic. In the socioeconomic architecture of Europe, the poverty line had never been as significant as it is now. The same data shows that the skewed income distribution and the injustice in social distribution have a number of dimensions. Europe has richer and poorer countries, while each country has its own rich and poor. The economic stagnation which has become chronic and feared to be permanent in the European Union and the debt crisis leave the Union with a few options. Unemployment rises as a result of cuts in every field due to harsh austerity measures. Those who are out of a job have difficulty finding another job. Although the leaders of the European Union watch developments in the USA with apprehension of the fiscal cliff, they do not care for the social cliff in their own old continent. It would be better if they did care. Some people disagree. Herman Van Rompuy, President of the European Union Council, claims that the stagnant Eurozone will probably grow this year. According to Van Rompuy, there are evident signs that the economic stagnation of the Eurozone will end in 2013. Van Rompuy further claims that there is no risk of a disbanding of the Eurozone. Van Rompuy says that as pessimistic expectations dissipate, neither the media nor markets any longer question the integrity of the currency union. But what if Berlusconi makes a return in the Italian elections? What if Greece is once in risk of default, as has happened a number of times before, or if there is need for extra financing of Ireland or Portugal? Would these claims still be valid if the crisis in Spain or Italy grows? It is not possible for the European Union to be restructured with a focus of people and social development. The Union is now ruled by lobby groups. Markets have all the power over the fate of Europe. The increasing poverty and the widening social gap require urgent responses. As the stagnation continues, unemployment will rise and problems will become chronic. To prevent this, European institutions need to take new steps. Otherwise the ignored and overlooked Europeans may begin to have a problem with the Euro. Yet Jose Manuel Barosso, President of the European Commission, is optimistic. According to Barosso the worst is over for the Eurozone. the European Central Bank has declared in September that it can purchase the debt of Eurozone countries and has lowered borrowing costs. A word of advice for 2013: if you trust the figures, you should be scared, but if you trust Van Rompuy and Barosso, do not worry; everything will be all right.

FAKRLK VE SZLK BRBRN TETKLYOR!

16 01 2013

Avrupann Borlar Krizi yeni bir aamaya geti Avro Blgesinde mali yangn byyor. Her ne kadar iyimserlik mesajlar srarla verilmeye devam edilse de, yangn btn sistemi sard. Aklanan son istatistik verileri ortaya ok arpc bir tablo koyuyor. Bu tablodan iki sonu var Sonularn birincisi 2007 ylndan bu yana uygulanan yntemler sadece bankalara daha fazla para kazandrd. Bunun iin reel s ektr feda edildi. Bunun iin toplumlarn yaam standartlar feda edildi. Sonulardan ikincisi ise, Avrupa Birlii kararlatrd Avrupa stikrar Mekanizmas, ortak maliye politikas ve ortak mali denetim gibi yntemlerle ayn hatalarda srar edecei iin; bankalar gelecekte de byk paral ar kazanacak. Bunun iin reel sektr kurban olmaya devam edecek. Toplumlarn yaam standartlarnn yann sra gelecekleri kurban edilecek! rnein Polonyada yaananlar bunun nemli bir gstergesi. Caritas gibi sivil toplum kurulular bu lkeye kolilerle gda, gi yim ve okul malzemeleri gnderiyor. Ama sivil toplum kurulularnn btn yk tamas mmkn deil. Polonyada evsizler ve fakirler lke nfusunun %7sini oluturuyor.

Sz konusu kesim 2,5 milyon kiiden meydana geliyor. zellikle de gen yetikinler, isiz kadnlar ve ocuunu yalnz bana byten kadnlar, daimi yoksulluk tehdidinden en fazla muzdarip olanlar bu kesimin ierisinde yer alyor. Euronews bu kesimin karnn aevlerinde doyurduunu aklad. Sz konusu aevleri Avrupa Yoksullar in Gda Program kapsamnda iletiliyor. Program Avrupa Birliinin yardmyla yryor ve yakn bir zamanda kesilecek. 27 gda bankasnn srdrlmesi Avrupadan gelen toplam bteye %90lk katkya bal. Ama sz konusu btenin %40 drlmesi bekleniyor. nk toplam 500 milyon EUR tutarndaki bteli program baz lkeler iin pahal. Polonyada 1,5 milyon kii ve btn Avrupa Birliinde 18 milyon kii bu programdan faydalanyor. Fakat Almanya, Avusturya, Danimarka, sve, Hollanda, ek Cumhuriyeti Avrupa Parlamentosunda 2014 ylnda yrrle girecek yeni btenin daha dk olmasn talep ediyor. Elbette deme fakirler iin deil de, sper zengin bankalar iin olsayd farkl geliirdi. Ama grnen o ki, Avrupa Avrupallar gzden kard Buna nazik ve teknik bir aklama getirmek isteyenler, vergi gelirleri derken sosyal harcamalarn artmas nedeniyle pek ok devlet mal hareket alann kaybetti diyorlar. Ayrca Kasm ayna ilikin istihdam verileri Avrupa Birliinde ktye gidiin srdn gsteriyor. Avro Blgesindeki is izlik oran Kasm 2012 iin %11,8 seviyesinde tespit edildi. Ayn oran Ekim 2012de %11,7 idi. Geri pek ok kimseye %0,1 art nemsiz grnebilir. Ama buradaki %0,1 art, bir nceki rekorun krlmas anlamna geliyor. Ayrca bu art tedbirlerin ie yaramad anlamna da geliyor. zellikle 2013 ylnda Avro Blgesinin ekonomik duraanlk yaayaca bilgisi de dikkate alndnda, Avrupa iin bu yl isizlik rakamlarnn artmaya devam edecei sylenebilir. ayet yarm milyar nfuslu Avrupada isizlik rakamlar sadece muazzam bir iflastan sonra iyileme srecine giren kk rlanda ekonomisinde geriliyorsa, durum sanlandan daha kt olabilir. Zaten Avro Blgesinde Almanya dnda hibir lkede toparlanma iareti yok. Avro kullanmayan yelerle beraber 27 Avrupa Birlii lkesinde ortalama isizlik %10,7. Son verilere gre Avro Blgesinde isizlik orannn en yksek olduu lke Yunanistan. Yunanistanda isizlik oran %26,8 dzeyine ulat. sizlik oran en yksek Avro Blgesi listesinde ikinci sray da %26,6 ile krizi ok ar biimde yaayan Avro Blgesinin drdnc byk ekonomisi spanya alyor. Genler arasnda isizlik ise he r iki lkede de %57 civarnda. Avro Blgesi'nin genelinde genler arasnda isizlik %24,4. Avrupa Birlii genelinde de benzer bir r akam var; %23,7. Riskli lkelerde son 12 aylk zaman diliminde, ncesiyle karlatrldnda durum yle; En yksek art Eyll 2011 ve Eyll 2012 arasnda beklendii gibi Yunanistanda oldu. Yunanistanda isizlik %18,9dan %26ya kt. Onu benzer bir artla Gney Kbrs takip etti. Gney Kbrsta isizlik oran % 9,5ten % 14e kt. ki sorunlu ber lkesinden spanyada isizlerin art % 23ten % 26,6ya ve Portekizde % 14,1den % 16,3e artt. zetle; Riskli lkelerde filmin en korkun yeri daha gelmedi. Rapora gre ortak para birimi kullanan lkelerde Kasm ayndaki kaytlara gre toplam 19 milyon isiz var. Son verilere gre, Avrupa Birlii genelinde 26 milyon kii isiz. Avro Blgesinde Ekim 2012den Kasm 2012ye kadar geen ksa srede 113.000 kii daha isiz kald. Avrupann istatistik kurumu Eurostatn verilerine gre Kasm 2011den Kasm 2012ye kadar geen sre zarfnda isiz saysndaki art 2 milyon oldu. Yani baka bir deyile 2013 ylnda Avrupada aevlerinin says artacak ve aevlerinin bteleri daha ok tartlacak. Bu rakamlar yoksulluun Avrupann nemli bir meselesi haline geldiini ve hzla kronikleeceini ifade ediyor. Avrupann sosyoekonomik mimarisinde fakirlik eii hi bu kadar kritik derecede nemli olmamt. Ayn veriler Avrupada gelir dalmndaki bozukluun ve toplumun paylamndaki adaletsizliinin birka ayr boyutu olduunu da gsteriyor. Avrupada hem zengin lkele r ve fakir lkeler var hem de her lkede zenginler ve fakirler var. Avrupa Birliinde sren ve kroniklemesinden endie edilen ekonomik durgunluk ve alamayan bor krizi Birlii kmaza srklyor. nk sert tasarruf tedbirleri ile neredeyse btn harcamalarn kslmas, tketimi snrlad iin isizlik oranlar artyor. Ayrca iini kaybedenlerin yeniden i bulmas da zorlayor. Her ne kadar Avrupa Birliinin liderleri ABDdeki ekonomik gelimeleri mali uurum endiesiyle izleseler de, kendi yal ktalarndaki sosyal uurumu nemsemiyorlar. nems emeleri daha iyi olurdu. Ama elbette bu fikirde olmayanlar da var. Avrupa Birlii Konseyi Bakan Herman VanRompuy, ekonomik duraanlktaki Avro Blgesinin bu yl ierisinde ok byk bir olaslkla yeniden bymeye balayacan iddia ediyor. Van Rompuya gre, Avro Blgesi'ndeki ekonomik duraanln 2013 ylnda sona ereceine ynelik giderek artan iaretler var. Van Rompuy ayrca Avrupa Blgesi'nin dalmas riskinin kalmadn savunu yor. Van Rompuya gre ktmser beklentiler dalyor, parasal birliin btnl artk ne medya ne de piyasa tarafndan sorgulanmyor. Pekala, talyan seimlerinde Berlusconi geri gelirse, Yunanistan bir kere daha -her yl birka defa olduu gibi - batarsa rlanda ve Portekiz ek finansmana ihtiya doarsa, hatta spanya ve talyada kriz byrse, yine bu szler geerli olacak m? Avrupa Birliinin yeniden insan ve sosyal kalknma odakl yaplanmas mmkn deil. Birlik artk lobilerin ynettii bir yap... Avrupa iin kader ve gelecek piyasalarn inisiyatifinde. Ama artan fakirlik ve byyen sosyal uurum, acil tedbir gerektiriyor. nk ekonomik duraanlk devam ettii srece isizliin artacak olmas sorunun kroniklemesine neden olacak. Bunun nlenebilmesi iin Avrupa kurumlarnn yeni bir takm admlar atmas gerekiyor. Yoksa gz ard edilen ve umursanmayan Avrupallar ile Avro arasnda daha byk sorunlar yaanabilir. Ayn ekilde Avrupa Komisyonu Bakan Jose Manuel Barroso da iyimser. Barossoya gre Avro Blgesi iin en kt dnem geride kald. Avrupa Merkez Bankas devreye girip Eyll aynda Avro Blgesi lkelerinin borlarn satn alabileceini ilan etti ve borlanma maliyetini drd. 2013 yl iin bir tavsiye; Saylara gveniyorsanz, korkun. Ama Barosso ve van Rompuya inanyorsanz, hi korkmayn ve endie etmeyin; Her ey yolunda!

THE ENGINE SLOWS DOWN

06 02 2013

Eurozone debt crisis puts the brakes on Germany Germany is the engine of the European Union and of the Eurozone. Member states have great expectations of Germany. Almost everyone is aware that the future of the Euro depends on Germany. Similarly, most people think that the exit from the debt crisis depends on Germany. However, the Euro crisis is beginning to affect Germany. latest data indicate that growth has slowed down.

Fiscal instability in the Eurozone has crossed over into Germany. The problems in the common currency area have lowered purchasing power, standards of living and consumption. The German economy has slowed down as a result of falling demand from other countries. This was a possibility for last year and a certainty for the present year. No one is surprised. yet no one can predict what comes next. Anxiety or hope for 2013? Germany had recorded low but positive growth in 2012. The negative growth experienced in the last quarter of 2012 indicated that 2013 would be problematic from the onset. That the GDP should grow by 0.7 percent, accounting for inflation, was taken to be a positive sign, but it was not a happy result for Germany. For those countries relying on Germany as an engine, there is good reason to be worried about 2013. The negative process for Germany had begun long before the announcement of the latest data. Germanys growth rate had fallen from 4.2 percent to 3 percent in recent years. Most recently it has fallen to 0.7 percent. But to take the fall in external demand as the only cause of this fall would be a mistake. Sometimes one should not be satisfied with official statements. No one can claim that Germany stands on the brink of chaos. Given the heavy burden and responsibilities Berlin is labouring under, 0.7 percent growth might be considered good. However, it would be good to know what Berlins answer is to the following questions. First, what will be the fate of the middle and the lower middle classes in 2013 and 2014? Secondly, will Germany be able to meet the demands of all Eurozone countries and European institutions in 2013 and 2014? Some data cause for concern Certain numerical data regarding the German economy and reported by the DW may shine a light on the background of the disappointments the German economy will experience in the coming years. German exports rose by 4 percent in 2012, while imports rose by 2.3 percent. Despite the fall in external demand, German foreign trade grew. the contribution of foreign trade to domestic production rose by 1.1 percent. Employment in Germany also rose by 100,000 people and has reached 41.6 million. Wages have also risen. Consumer expenditure rose by 0.8 percent, supporting real sector output. The German budget has increased despite the crisis. According to the reporting of the German press, the budget has produced a surplus for the third time since the unification of Germany. German income was EUR 2.2 billion greater than expenditure in 2012. Tax income has been determinant in the surplus. Public sector debt has fallen to 0.8 percent. This is the lowest figure in years. For these reasons, the majority of economists think that Germany will perform well in 2013. Many experts have expressed optimism. However the question which remains to be answered is: why has the German rate of growth fallen severely in 2012 while German exports, employment and the budget all grew? The fall in exports was deemed the reason for the fall in growth, but exports have increased, not fallen. While economists paint one bright picture after another, Berlin has cautiously set its growth target for 2014 at 1.6 percent. The German economy has slowed down, while some of the figures which have been announced seem out of keeping with a slowdown.

LOKOMOTF YAVALIYOR
23 01 2013

Avro Blgesindeki Bor Krizi Almanya ekonomisini frenledi Almanya hem Avrupa Birliinin hem de Avro Blgesinin lokomotifi. Her ye lkenin Almanyadan ok byk beklentisi var. Heme n herkes Avronun geleceinin Almanyaya bal olduunun farknda. Hemen herkes borlar krizinden kn da Almanyann gc ile olacann farknda. Ama Avro krizi artk Almanyay da etkiliyor. Son veriler, Alman ekonomisinde bymenin gerilediini gsteriyor. Avro Grubunda yaanan finansal istikrarszlk Almanyann snrlarn da geti. Ortak para blgesinde yaanan sorunlar, bu blgede alm gcn, yaam standardn ve tketimi drd. Bunun sonucunda Alman ekonomisi de dier lkelerden gelen talepteki azalma sonucunda yavalad. Aslnda bu gelime getiimiz yl bekleniyordu ve bu yl gerekleecei de kesindi. Dolaysyla hi kimse armad. armad, ama y ine hi kimse bundan sonra neler olacan tahmin edemiyor. 2013 in Kayg M Doru, Umut Mu? Almanya 2012 yln kk de olsa pozitif byme hz ile tamamlamt. Ama 2012 ylnn son eyreinde kaydedilen negatif byme hz, 2013 ylnn balangcndan itibaren sorunlu olacan gsteriyordu. Gayri safi yurtii hslann enflasyondan arndrlm rakamlarla binde 7 art kaydetmesi, her durumda olumlu bir gelime olarak kabul edilse de, Almanyay mutlu edecek bir sonu olmad. zellikle Almanyay lo komotif kabul eden lkelere iinde bulunduumuz 2013 ylnda tedirgin olmak iin nemli bir argman verdi. Aslnda Almanya iin olumsuz sre en yeni istatistiklerin aklanmasndan ok daha nce balad. Almanyann byme hz son birka yl ierisinde %4,2den %3e dt. Bu rakam daha sonra %0,7 -binde 7- seviyense indi. Fakat bu dte sadece d talepteki azalmay tek neden kabul etmek byk bir hata olur. Daha dorusu bazen resmi aklamalarla yetinmemek daha doru olur. Kukusuz hi kimse Almanyann bir kaosun eiinde olduunu iddia edemez. Hatta Berlinin zerindeki byk sorumluluklar ve ar yk dnnce, binde 7 iin ok iyi demek dahi mmkn. Fakat Berlin iin iki sorunun cevabnn nasl bulunduunu bilmek iyi olurdu. Birincisi Almanyada orta snfn ve orta snfn biraz altnn 2013 ve 2014 yllarnda kaderi ne olacak? kincisi de Almanya 2013 ve 2014 yllarnda btn Avro Grubu lkelerinin ve Avrupa kurumlarnn taleplerini karlayabilecek mi? Baz Veriler Tedirgin Edici Almanya ekonomisine ilikin aklanan ve DWnin de dnyaya duyurduu baz saysal veriler nmzdeki birka yl yaanacak baz hayal krklklarnn perde arkasna k tutuyor olabilir yle ki; Almanya'nn ihracat 2012 ylnda %4 nispetinde artt. Almanyann 2012 ylnda ithalat da %2,3 orannda art gsterdi. Yani Almanyann d talepte azalma olmasna ramen d ticareti olumlu bir izgi takip etti. D ticaretin yurtii retime katks %1,1'e ykseldi. Almanyada alan nfusta, yani istihdamda art saland. stihdam 100.000 kii artt ve 41,6 milyona ulat. cretler de ykseldi. %0,8 orannda artan tketim de reel sektr ve retimi destekledi. Hatta Almanyann milli geliri krize ramen artt. Alman basnnn aktardn gre, Almanyada gelir iki Alman devletinin birlemesinden bu yana nc kez fazla verdi. 2012 ylnda Almanyann geliri harcamasndan 2,2 m ilyar Avro oldu. Bu

artta vergi gelirlerinin byk etkisi oldu. Bundan baka kamu sektrnn borlanma ihtiyac %0,8 seviyesine indi. Bu rakam son yllarn en dk oran kabul ediliyor. Bu nedenle ekonomistlerin nemli bir blm Alman ekonomisinin 2013 ylnda byk bir gelime kaydedeceini savunuyor. ok sayda uzman umut dolu aklamalar yapyor. Fakat bir soruya henz cevap veren olmad. Almanya 2012 ylnda ihracatn, istihdamn, milli gelirini artrdysa, neden byme hz bu derecede dt? Bu de neden olarak ihracattaki azalma gsterildi. Ama Almanyann ihracat azalmad, artt! Ekonomistler pe pee pembe tablolar izerken, Berlin oundan daha temkinli ve 2014 yl iin byme orann sadece %1,6 ola rak hedefledi. Her durumda Almanya bir ekilde yavalad ve aklanan rakamlarn bir blm bu yavalama ile uyumlu grnmyor.

A LONG WINTER IN EUROPE

21 02 2013

The crisis may cause new tremors in the European Union The crisis is not over and it does not seem like it will be over soon. Some developments indicate that for Europe the crisis is just beginning. More bluntly, the second dip in the crisis may come this year. It is very difficult to guess how long this period will last. Recently, those who take the bus to work in the Italian city of Naples had an unpleasant surprise. The buses had to unload their passengers at some point and the drivers had to call their supervisors. The passengers had to explain to their bosses that since the municipal buses could not afford fuel due to budget cuts, they had to walk half the way. Urban bus services in Naples could not be run for a day because there was not enough funds to buy fuel. Mass transit in the city was gravely affected. the problem continues. While 300 buses used to serve Naples, the number has now been cut to 30. This bizarre situation goes further than describing the problems in Naples. It also shows that phase the debt crisis in Europe has come to. It is not only Naples where the funds have ran out. It is not only the buses in Naples which are no longer working. It is not only Neapolitans who are angry. The system which has become deformed and blocked is not only the functioning of the municipality of Naples. Unrest in Belgium One wishes that it was only a mishap in Naples which troubled Neapolitans only and could have ended with anger and a solution in Naples alone. But the violent actions of workers in Belgium show that the problem cannot be swept under the rug. People such as Barrosso and Van Rompuy might say that the worst is in the past. Developments contradict them. While European leaders are trying to sweep the debt crisis under the rug, the facts show that there might be urban uprisings, even in Belgium. Mass protests and protestors number too many to be swept under the rug. Their numbers put them beyond being exceptions. What has happened in ArcelorMittal steel plant in Liege, Belgium needs to be paid attention. ArcelorMittal wants to shut down this plant which will result in 1,300 job losses. The workers have held a protest. The police intervened with water cannons and the protestors responded with stones. The announcement by the Belgian Prime Minister Elio Di Rupo that the government would do everything in its power to stop the closure did not prevent the town from turning into a battle zone. What was seen in Belgium was the effect. It was the effect of sacrificing the future of the real sector in Europe so that the financial sector can meet its profit targets. It is also the effect of paying more attention to the preferences of the finance sector than to the welfare of Europeans. Those who are in charge of Europe thought the budgetary estimates of the financial sector to be more important than standards of living. If the streets and squares of Belgium have become places where the police and the people clash, a great part of the blame lies with those European institutions which have overseen the annual strategies of financial institutions instead of the future of Europeans. Of course the greatest part of the blame belongs to those administrators who have turned the European Union in to the Debt Union. They took the steps which led to the European Union becoming a union of bankrupt countries. Recession was the inevitable end of severe austerity. The wheel has stopped turning in Spain The expected has finally happened and the Spanish economy has entered a recession in the last quarter of 2012. The result of all those measures implemented has been recession. In the fourth quarter of the year from October to December 2001, Spain contracted by 0.7 percent. In other words the GDP of Spain has fallen by 0.7 percent compared to the previous quarter of the year. At the beginning of the global crisis Spain had 3.5 percent rate of economic growth. In 2008 it experienced a sharp decline and the rate of growth fell to 0.9 percent. The later years were worse. Spain contracted by 3.7 percent in 2009 and by 0.3 percent in 2010. The year 2011 was somewhat better for the Spanish economy which grew by 0.4 percent. However, Spains economy contracted by 1.4 percent in 2012 and is expected to also contract by 1.4 percent in 2013. The tough austerity measures which have been implemented in Spain since 2007 have pushed the country towards recession. The Spanish economy is fighting a heavy debt burden. The miserable condition of the real sector and unemployment is also a great problem in Spain. According to figures published by state agencies, unemployment in Spain has risen by 1 percentage point and become 26 percent. estimates say that there are 6 million unemployed people in Spain. Chaos in Athens continues Things are not going well in Greece either. The administration in Athens has been unable to put things back on track. Greece is like an angry skydiver who clings to a parachute which will not open. The government insists obstinately on austerity measures. However, the people resist the austerity measures and point out that they have not yielded any benefits so far. Most recently demonstrators have clashed with the police outside the labour ministry.

Demonstrators tried to occupy the ministry building. The police used tear gas to force them to retreat. The Greek government has been imposing very tough savings measures in exchange for credit from the European Union and the IMF. The people are angry that they have to pay the bill for the crisis instead of those who are responsible for it. The chaos in Athens seems set to grow. There are buses on the side of the road in Naples with angry passengers, drivers trying to absolve themselves, businesses which are upset that their workers are late. Everyone is right, everyone is innocent, everyone is a victim and everybody is very angry. It is like Europe at large. In Athens fireworks are being used not in celebrations but in street battles. In Spain poverty is being discussed instead of growth. In Belgium the streets and squares have been blocked by demonstrators. There are governments which have come to power with the promise to stop the chaos but which accept all the conditions imposed by the European Union and the IMF without question in order to get credit. There are institutions which have to maintain the integrity and continuity of the system. Who is guilty? Who is right? From which perspective? Who should foot the bill and why? The end of the crisis in Europe depends on such questions being answered. Urgent steps are needed to end the chaos. The encouragement of production and consumption, rather than further austerity is needed. If this does not happen and the measures in place since 2007 continue, the chaos will not end. The next dip may see everything collapse, including the Euro, the Eurozone and European integration.

AVRUPADA KI UZUN SRECEK

06 02 2013

Kriz Avrupa Birliinde yeni sarsntlara neden olabilir Kriz bitmedi ve bitecek gibi de grnmyor. Hatta baz gelimeler krizin Avrupa iin yeni bir balang noktasnda olduuna iaret ediyor. Daha ak szl olmak gerekirse, krizin ikinci dip noktas bu yl ierisinde olabilir. Ayrca ikinci dip noktasnn ne kadar sreceini de tahmin etmek ok zor olabilir. talyann Napoli kentinde sabah ie gitmek iin otobse binenler kt bir srprizle karlatlar. Bir sre sonra otobs yolcular otobs ten inip patronlarn aradlar. Yolcular iyerlerine belediye otobs ofrlerinin bte kesintileri nedeniyle benzin alamad iin yolda kaldn izah etmek zorunda kaldlar. Napolide ehir ii otobs seferleri yakt alacak para olmad iin bir gn boyunca yaplamad. Kentin toplu tamacl ok bir byk sknt yaad. Napolide sorun halen devam ediyor. Kentte normal artlar altnda her gn 300 otobs sefere karken, bu rakam artk sadece 30 civarnda. Bu tuhaf durum aslnda sadece Napolideki bir sorunu tarif etmiyor. Ayn zamanda Avrupada yaanan borlar krizinin de geldii noktay ortaya koyuyor. nk yaanan srete ortaya kan gelimeler sadece Napoliyi anlatmyor. Biten sadece Napolinin paras deil. Yolda kalan sadece Napolinin otobsleri de deil. Sadece Napoliler de fkeli olanlar deil. Zaten tkanan ve bozulan sistem sadece Napoli beled iyesinin sistemi deil Belikada syan Var Keke yaanan aksama sadece Napoliyi skntya soksayd veya Napolilerin hatas, Napolilerin fkesi ve Napolilerin zm il e sonlanabilseydi. Ama Belikada iilerin iddet dolu eylemleri sorunun halnn altna sprlecek bir krnt olmadn gsteriyor. Belki Barrosso ve van Rompuy gibi isimler iin en kts geride kald denilebilir. Fakat gelimeler onlarn haksz olduuna iaret ediyor. Avrupa liderleri borlar krizini halnn altna sprmeye alsa da, yaanan gerekler Belikada dahi ehir ayaklanmalar olabileceine iaret ediyor. Kitle gsterileri ve gstericiler halnn altna sprlmeyecek kadar ok. Saylar istisna saylamayacak kadar fazla. Belikann Liege kentindeki Demir elik irketi ArcelorMittalda yaananlarn ok nemsenmesi lazm. ArcelorMittal bu kentteki fabrikasn kapatacak. Bunun sonucunda 1.300 ii iini kaybedecek. iler protesto eylemi dzenledi. Polis gstericilere tazyikli su ile mdahale etti ve protestocular da polise talarla karlk verdi. Belika Babakan Elio Di Ruponun fabrikann kapatlmamas iin her trl abay gstereceklerini aklamas da kentin sava meydanna dnmesi ni nleyemedi. Aslnda Belikada yaanan sorun bir sonu. Avrupada reel sektrn geleceinin finans sektrnn kar hedeflerini tutturmas iin feda edilmesinin sonucu. Ayn zamanda finans kurulularnn tercihlerinin Avrupallarn refahndan daha fazla nemsenmesi bu sonucu dourdu. Avrupay ynetenler finans sisteminin bilano tahminlerini Avrupallarn yaam kalitesinden daha kymetli grdler. Eer Belikada sokaklar ve meydanlar polis ile halkn kar karya geldii ve att yerler halini aldysa, bunda Avrupallarn geleceini deil, finans kurulularnn yllk stratejilerini kollayan Avrupa kurumlarnn byk suu var. Elbette suun en by, Avrupa Birliinin Borlar Birliine eviren yneticilerde. Onlar Avrupa Birliini iflas eden lkelerin birliine dntrecek admlar attlar. Ar tasarruf sonucu resesyon kanlmaz bir sonu oldu spanyada ark Durdu!... Nihayetinde beklenen oldu ve spanya ekonomisi 2012 ylnn son eyreinde resesyona girdi. Uygulanan btn tedbirlerin toplamnn sonucu bu resesyon oldu. Ekim 2012- Aralk 2012 dnemini kapsayan yln drdnc eyreinde spanya %0,7 kld. Dier bir deyie spanyada gayri safi yurt ii retim ayn yln bir nceki eyreklik dilimine oranla %0,7 geriledi. spanya kresel krizin arifesinde %3,5 byme oranna sahipti. 2008 ylnda spanya sert bir d yaad ve byme oran %0,9 indi. Sonraki yllar daha da kt geliti. spanya 2009 ylnda %3,7 klme yaad. spanya ekonomisi 2010 ylnda %0,3 daralma yaad. spanya iin 2011 yl nceki yllara gre biraz daha iyi geti ve ekonomi ok kk bir nispette de olsa %0,4 byd. Fakat spanya 2012 yln da %1,4 daralma tamamlad ve 2013 ylnn da ayn ekilde %1,4 orannda klme ile tamamlanaca tahmin ediliyor. spanyada 2007 ylndan bu yana uygulanan sert tasarruf tedbirleri lkeyi resesyona srkledi. spanya ekonomisi ar bor yk ile bouuyor. Ama spanya iin reel sektrn perian hali ve isizlik de ok byk sorun. spanyada resesyon isizlii artrmaya devam edi yor. Devlet kurulularnn yaynlad resmi rakamlara gre spanyada isizlik %1 daha artt ve %26 seviyesine kt. spanyada tahminlere gre 6 milyondan fazla isiz var.

Atinada Kaos Sryor! Dier taraftan Yunanistanda iler iyi gitmiyor. Atinada ynetim lkeyi rayna oturtamad. Yunanistan hala almayan parat e fkeyle baran parat gibi! Atinada hkmet srarla ve inatla tasarruf tedbirlerini uygulamaya sokuyor. Ancak kemer skma politikalarnn u ana kadar hibir sonu vermediine dikkat eken halk da buna direniyor. Gstericiler son olarak Atinada alma bakanl nnde polisle att. Gstericiler bakanlk binasn igal etmeye alt. Polis protestocular geri ekilmeye zorlamak iin gz yaartc gaz kulland. Yunanistanda hkmet Avrupa Birliinin ve Uluslararas Para Fonunun verdii kredilerin karlnda ok sert tasarruf tedbirler uyguluyor. Halk ise lkenin iinde bulunduu kt durumun sorumlularnn yerine kendisinin faturay demesine fkeleniyor. Atinada kaos daha da byyecek gibi grnyor. Napolide yolda kalan otobsler Kzgn yolcular Yolculara dert anlatmaya alan otobs ofr e zamannda yetiemeyen yolculara fkelenen firmalar Herkes hakl, herkes masum, herkes madur ve ok fkeli... Tpk... Btn Avrupa gibi Havai fieklerin kutlama iin deil polise saldr iin atld Atina Bymenin deil, sefaletin tartld spanya Sokaklar, meydanlar gsterilerle tkanan Belika Kaosu durdurmak iin greve gelen ve yeni bor iin Avrupa Birliinin ve Uluslararas Para Fonunun btn artlarn eksiksiz kabul eden hkmetler. Sistemin btnln ve devamlln korumakla grevli kurumlar Kim sulu? Kime gre? Neye gre? Faturay kim demeli? Neden? Avrupada krizin bitmesi, Avrupann baz sorulara cevap ve baka sorunlara zm retmesine bal. Kaosun sona ermesi iin acil admlar atlmak zorunda. Bu admlarn arasnda tasarruf tedbirleri deil, retimin ve istihdamn teviki yer almak zorunda. Eer olmazsa ve 2007 ylndan bu yana uygulanan yntemler devam ederse, kaos bitmez. Bi r sonraki dip nokta her eyin kt nokta olabilir. Avro da, Avro Blgesi de, Avrupa entegrasyonu da

THE SECOND DIP AND THE SECOND HALF OF 2013

19 02 2013

The European Union warns of crisis and gives a date Signals and warnings of a crisis centred on Europe continue to be issued. Most recently the European Central Bank (ECT) has announced that the first six months of the present year are risky. This statement does not contain any expressions relating to the second dip. But it does signal danger. That the ECT should announce continuing risk in the regions economy ought to be taken seriously. Meanwhile President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso, has called for a solution to unemployment which affects 25 million people in the European Union of 27 members. Meanwhile the most recent announcement by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) was just as critical as these two warnings. According to the ILO the number of unemployed people in the world has risen compared to last year and reached 197 million. The number of unemployed is set to rise by 5.1 million this year. Therefore the unemployment crisis arising from the global crisis will exacerbate throughout 2013 around the world. The European Union, which is expected to be in stagnation this year will be heavily affected by the consequences. In Spain unemployment continues to rise rapidly. In the crisis ridden country 5 million people are out of work and Spain has set a new record. Youth unemployment in the country has reached the incredible level of 55 percent. Present data and recent developments indicate that there is a long way to go until Spain sees light at the end of the tunnel. For example, Spain has got an unexpectedly bad result in the bond auction on the 7th of February 2013. In the bond tender which was crucial for Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, the interest rates for 5 year bonds rose from 3.77 percent to 4.12 percent. Furthermore, demand for 5 year bonds was lower than expected. Only EUR 4.5 billion was raised. the amount was lower than the worst period of the crisis. The results of this bond tender may be interpreted as the lack of investor confidence in political stability in Spain. It may also be claimed that Madrid is following the wrong path in dealing with the crisis. In any case, investors do not think that Spain will be in a better situation in five years time. This is what the figures show. The point may also be made that investors are not optimistic regarding the European Unions struggle with the debt crisis and its solid arity with Spain. Meanwhile, Europeans are looking for an answer to a good question; how can Southern Cyprus, which makes up 0.2 percent of the economic size of the Eurozone go bankrupt that it needs an amount greater than its GDP, namely EUR 17.5 billion and how will it pay this amount back, should it receive it in credit? Europe was of course late on this issue. It should have answered some questions beforehand. For example, why was the largest money laundry in Europe accepted as a member to the European Union? Why does the unsinkable pirate ship of the Mediterranean enjoy so much goodwill and tolerance? How can the clone of Greece in the eastern Mediterranean and the holiday resort of the Russian mob have the Commission and Council fulfil all of its wishes? According to data at hand, the half of all the deposits in the banking sector of Southern Cyprus, which is to be salvaged using European Union funds, belongs to Russian citizens. More striking figures are also available: for example, while the Southern Cypriot GDP is around USD 17-18 billion, Russian deposits in its banks are worth USD 20 billion. Meanwhile Russia is the largest investor in Southern Cyprus while Southern Cyprus is the second largest foreign investor in Russia. Certain things remain unknown, it seems. 2013 will be a really long year for the European Union. Many decisions will be tough to make. The European Union has repeatedly caused scandal b its decisions over Cyprus. There is no need to be optimistic this time. Let us wait and see.

2013 YILININ LK YARISI VE KNC DP

13 02 2013

Avrupa Merkez Bankas kriz uyarsnda bulundu ve tarih verdi... Avrupa merkezli kriz sinyalleri ve uyarlar gelmeye devam ediyor. Son olarak Avrupa Merkez Bankas, bu yln ilk alt aylk diliminin riskli olduunu aklad. Bu aklama ikinci dip nokta konusunda ak bir ifade iermiyor. Ama yine de tehlike olduunu ortaya koyuyor. Avrupa Merkez Bankasnn blge ekonomisindeki risklerin sreceini aklamas her durumda ok ciddiye alnmas gereken bir durum... Dier taraftan Avrupa Komisyonu Bakan Jose Manuel Barroso, Avrupa Birlii yesi 27 lkeye Birlik lkelerinde 25 milyona ulaan isizlie bir z m bulmalar iin talepte bulundu. Dier taraftan ILOnun yapt son aklama da en az bu iki uyar kadar nemli. ILOya gre, dnyada isiz says geen yla gre artt ve 197 milyona ulat. ILO verilerine gre isiz says bu yl 5,1 milyon artacak. Dolaysyla kresel krizin dourduu isizlik krizi 2013 ylnda dnya genelinde arlaarak devam edecek. Btn yl ekonomik duraanlkla geirmesi beklenen Avrupa Birliinin bu durumun etkilerini dorudan ve dolayl, ama kesinlikle ar bir biimde yaamas bekleniyor. rnein spanya'da isizlik hzla artmaya devam ediyor. Krizdeki lkede isizlerin says 5 milyona ulat ve spanya bu konuda yine rekor krd. Bu arada isizlik konusunda spanya bir rekor daha krd ve lkede gen nfustaki isizlik inanlmas zor bir oran yakalad ve % 55'e ulat. Mevcut veriler ve son gelimeler spanyann tnelin ucunda k grmesine uzun sre olduuna iaret ediyor. rnein spanya 7 ubat 2013 tarihli bono ihalesinde beklemedii kt bir sonu elde etti. Babakan Mariano Rajoy asndan ok ciddi olan bono ihalesinde, 5 yllk bonolarda faiz bir ihalede salanan %3.77den %4.12ye ykseldi. Ayrca 5 yl vadeli bonolara talep beklenen dzeyin altnda kald. 4,5 milyar EUR tutarnda tahvil sat yapld. Sz konusu rakam krizin en sert dneminden daha dk olmas ile dikkat ekti. Bu bono ihalesinin so nucu deerlendirilirken, yatrmclarn spanyadaki siyasi istikrara gvenmedii deerlendirmesi yaplabilir. Ayrca Madridin krizle mcadele srecinde yanl istikamette ilerledii de iddia edilebilir. Her durumda, yatrmclar spanyann 5 yl sonraki durumunun bugnnden iyi olacan dnmyorlar. Rakamlar bunu ifade ediyor. Ayn noktadan hareketle yatrmclarn Avrupa Birliinin borlar krizine kar sava ve ayrca spanya ile dayanmas konusunda da kesinlikle iyimser olmad gerei de dikkat ekiyor. te yandan btn Avrupa ok akll bir soruya cevap aryor; Avro blgesinin %0,2 byklndeki Gney Kbrs toplam ekonomik byklnden daha byk bir meblaa-17,5 milyar USD- ihtiya duyacak derecede nasl batabildi ve Gney Kbrs bu paray alrsa, nasl geri demeyi baaracak? Elbette Avrupa bu konuda ge kald. Avrupa baz sorular daha nce kendi kendine cevaplayacakt. Mesela Avrupann en byk kara para aklama merkezi neden Birlie alnd? rnein korsan adas veya Akdenizin batmayan korsan gemisi neden bu kadar tahamml ve hogr gryor? Veya Yunanistann Dou Akdenizdeki klonu ve Rus mafyasnn tatil ky neden Komisyona ve Konseye her istediini yaptrabiliyor? Mevcut verilere gre Avrupann paras ile kurtarlacak Gney Kbrstaki bankaclk sektrnde btn mevduatn toplamnn yars Ruslara ait. Ama bundan daha da byk ve daha da arpc rakamlar var. Gney Kbrs ekonomisi 17,5 milyar USD - 18 milyar USD byklnde. Ama Ruslarn Gney Kbrs bankalarndaki birikimi 20 milyar USD civarnda! Bu arada Rusya Gney Kbrstaki en byk yatrmc ve Gney Kbrs da Rusyadaki ikici byk yatrmc Belli ki, henz bilinmeyen daha ok fazla ey var. Avrupa Birlii iin 2013 yl gerekten ok uzun bir yl olacak. Avrupa Birlii iin bu yl alaca pek ok karar, ok zor olacak. Avrupa Birlii daha nce Kbrs konusunda defalarca fiyasko kararlar alp, skandallara nende oldu. Bu defa iyimser olmak iin zel bir neden yok. Sadece beklemek lazm

THE EUROPEAN UNION: WHICH EUROPE? WHICH UNION?

19 02 2013

Europes conceptual framework has been shattered Europe is going through a strange time. It is becoming increasingly distant to democracy. Europe is becoming distant to Europeans. Europe is drifting away from wealth and welfare. Europe is undergoing a powerful mutation. It might be a strong expression, but the greatest dictatorship and the most recent dictatorship in European history is the European Union. The fact that the European Union keeps advising and imposing democracy on third parties does not make it democratic. Today Europe is ruled by the European Union. The true rulers are councils, boards, commissions and lobbies. It is common knowledge that a constitution is an arrangement which protects the people from the rulers. For the ruled the most important guarantee, the strongest shield and the most important means of recompense is the constitution. However, the Lisbon Treaty, which has been ratified thanks to intensive efforts by Germany and France despite the European public opinion and referenda results means something entirely different.

The Lisbon Treaty protects politicians and administrators of the European Union from the electorate. This severe diagnosis has been voiced most strongly by the former member of the European Parliament, Danish Jens-Peter Bonde. The idea of splitting from the European Union, which is being openly debated in the UK, is a desire of many European Union citizens. But since to criticise and to oppose the European Union is often presented as something that no proper citizen would do and is presented as treason labelled as Euro-scepticism, many people cannot voice this demand. The European Union has become so complicated and difficult to understand that what limited interest the Europeans had in it has long died down. Almost no one knows or more importantly, cares for, the articles of the Amsterdam Agreement, the grounds for the Nice Agreement, the aims of the Maastricht Treaty or the principles behind the Lisbon Treaty. For many European Union citizens it does not matter who is a member of which commission, which council decides on which matters and what are covered by primary and secondary law. One wishes that European institutions which carry out research in almost every field would conduct a public survey in all member states regarding the credibility, significance and prestige of the European Union. What would happen if they asked participants a few high ranking names? When the process of European integration began in the 1950s, it was coal and steel focused. Today, attempts at integration continue with bonds and credit. Democracy in Europe was probably a decor or accessory since the beginning. Nigel Farage relates Jean Monnet, a leading name in the process of European Integration saying I hate democracy, it is disturbing. Similarly, former president of the Commission Jacques Delors had said we could not have come so far democratically for European integration. According to Delors, 50 percent of the civil la ws which apply in the European Union and 80 percent of its economic regulation was carried out directly in Brussels. The elected parliaments of member states carried out what remained. And things could not have come so far democratically. Hundreds of millions of Europeans believe that they live in a democratic order. They do not know who truly rules them. They have in mind simple propaganda and cheap advertising from the 50s and the 60s. According to this the European Union is a project with human focus. It is peace project. It aims at preventing another ear on the European continent. It intends to introduce a body of law which applies throughout the continent and therefore to arrange a developed identity and society. This is not what happened. In fact the European Union has become the greatest obstacle in the way of European freedom. Do the poor Greek people really want austerity? Do the citizens of impoverished central European countries want to give up on subsidies? Do northern Europeans want to make fiscal sacrifices in order to cover the budget deficits of Mediterranean countries? Does the entire electorate give their government the blessing to precisely these things? Up until the 80s, many aspects of organisation in Europe was worthy of praise. But the strengthening of the economic union and developments regarding the common market have changed many things. The raising of customs, the introduction of the customs union and the free movement of capital have led to increasingly strong developments in the 90s. These were all presented as innovation to the hundreds of millions Europeans. These were indeed innovations, if they had only taken place in the 19th century instead of the 1980s and 90s. The only innovation which was accomplished through these developments was the suspension of safety mechanisms in place since the wars of the early 20th century and a return to the beginning. Another innovation in Europe which is not loudly advertised was of course the administrative structure and the functioning of decision making mechanisms of the European Union. This innovation was truly European in character. Bu before the European Union, Europe had already realised it in the Holy Roman Empire. The great innovations of the Nice Agreement were derived from documentation of the transformation of Rome from a kingdom to a republic. Given that the latest innovation of the Lisbon Treaty is based on the main structure of the Nice Agreement, it can be seen how innovative it really is. A central structure was necessary to oversee this process. A bureaucracy came into being i n Brussels. The total value of Brussels, that is the European Communitys budget in 1970 was EUR 4.8 billion in todays prices. At present it is around EUR 100 billion. What does this budget and thousands of personnel administrate? The European Union, undoubtedly. But what is the European Union? The European Union is not a federation in its present structure. It is also certainly not an alliance of states. The administrators of the European Union shape their decisions and actions daily according to the agenda and whatever option they see as advantageous. The European Union is managed by commissions, committees and councils. If Germany succeeds in making the European Union a federation and its members its constituent states, then everything every member state has will belong to the European Union; including everything from permanent representation in the UN Security Council and nuclear silos to national footballers. Meanwhile, for the European Union to become a federation called the United States of Europe, or any other name, hundreds of millions of people need to ratify this move in referenda. Given that a number of referenda in the past failed to fulfil its wishes, the European Union has decided not to hold any referenda. One was held in Ireland but the result being negative, a second one was held to get the desired result. Had the European Union been an alliance, as envisaged by De Gaulle and Adenauer, it would not be in the state it is in today. Very simply put, there would not exist gigantic budgets, an army of bureaucrats, forced common policies, imposed transfers of authority and sovereignty and other nonsense. The reader who would want to validate this argument may want to ask the following questions: in democratic regimes the fundamental principle is that the electorate vote for the person they want to be governed by. Who was it that elected Barosso or Van Rompuy, who decide on the future of Europeans? The European Court of Justice in Luxembourg not only implements the law, as is usual, but constantly comes up with new legislation. This attitude of the Court enables European law to constantly displace the national law of member states and to take over its place. Germany has been reacting to this since 1993. An assessment in the light of this data has to state the obvious that the European Union will never collapse, despite the crisis. With its giant budget and more than 20,000 personnel, the European Union is like a living organism. Furthermore just as the European Union set out with people and peace and ended up with markets and lobbies, just as it started off with coal and steel and now continues with bonds, it will find itself a new function with an appropriate mutation. Furthermore we can say that the European Union will never be as it used to be. It will become less attractive for member states and for candidate countries. The global crisis and its ramifications on the old continent may provoke euro-scepticism in member states. The European Union will not be a safeguard of harmony, democracy and innovation from now on, as it never was. All member states ought to have a contingency plan for the future. The attitude of the European Union, especially since the 2007 crisis has been worrying. Its approach towards countries in crisis and their people and towards the support of others has been disturbing. In the year 2013 there are still bankrupt states, countries on the verge of going down, miserable people, a rising number of unemployed and for the first time in decades heavy poverty and high risk of famine in Europe despite the massive amount of resources expended. of course everyone must enjoy good relations with each other. but those European Union countries who want to be optimistic about their future should limit themselves to good relations.

AVRUPA BRL; HANG AVRUPA? HANG BRLK?

13 02 2013

Avrupa anlam erevesinde ok ciddi bir krlma yayor Avrupa tuhaf bir dnem yayor. Avrupa giderek demokrasiden uzaklayor. Avrupa giderek Avrupallardan da uzaklayor. Avrupa zenginlikten de, refahtan da uzaklayor. Avrupa giderek iddetli biimde mutasyona uruyor Belki sert bir ifade olacak, ama Avrupa tarihinin en byk diktatrl de, en son diktatrl de Avrupa Birliidir. Avrupa Birliinin hemen herkese daha fazla demokrasi dayatmas onu demokratik klmaz. Bugn Avrupay Avrupa Birlii ynetiyor. Ama yneticiler gerekte konseyler, kurullar, komisyonlar ve lobiler Herkes bilir ki, anayasa esas olarak halk ynetenlere kar koruyan bir dzenlemedir. Ynetilenler iin en byk gvence, en gl zrhl ve en nemli sigorta anayasadr. Ama Fransa ve Almanyann youn abalar sonucunda -Avrupa kamuoyuna ve yaplan referandumlardan kan sonulara ramen- yaplan Lizbon Anlamas farkl bir anlama sahip Lizbon Anlamas Avrupa Birliinde siyasetileri ve Avrupa Birlii yneticilerini semenlerden koruyor! Bu sert ve acmasz tehisi en yksek sesle dile getiren kimse ise Avrupa Parlamentosunun eski yelerinden Danimarkal Jens -Peter Bonde oldu! Esasen ngilterede yksek sesle tartlan Birlikten ayrlma, aslnda ou Avrupa Birlii yurttann da arzusu. Ama Avrupa Birliini eletirmek ve Avrupa Birliine kar kmak dzgn yurtta olmaya aykr ve hatta Avrupa ktmserlii ad ile damgalanan bir hainlik gibi sunulduu iin pek ok kimse bunu dile getiremiyor. Avrupa Birlii o derecede karmak, anlalmas zor ve garip hale geldi ki, Avrupallarn zaten snrl olan ilgisi de byk lde azald. Artk hemen hi kimse Amsterdam Anlamasnn maddelerini, Nice Anlamasnn gerekelerini, Maastricht Anlamasnn hedeflerini ve nihayetinde Lizbon Anlamasnn temel prensiplerini bilmiyor ve daha nemlisi umursamyor. ou Avrupa Birlii yurtta iin kimin hangi komisyonun yesi olduu da, hangi konseyin hangi kararlar ald da, birincil veya ikincil hukukun neyi kapsad da nemli deil. Keke hemen her konuda aratrmalar yapan Avrupa kurumlar, btn Birlik yesi lkelerde Avrupa Birliinin gvenilirlii, nemi ve itibar hakknda bir kamuoyu aratrmas yapsalar. Hatta o anketlerde cevaplayanlara ok basit baz isimlerin kim olduunu sorsalar Avrupada entegrasyon sreci 1950li yllarda baladnda odanda kmr ve elik vard. Bugn de entegrasyon abalar tahvi ller ve krediler ile devam ediyor. Muhtemelen Avrupada demokrasi bu srecin balangcndan beri sadece dekor veya aksesuard. Nigel Faragenin aktard gibi, Avrupada btnleme srecinin nder isimlerinden Jean Monnetin demokrasiden nefret ediyorum, ok rahatszlk verici ifade si bir hayli nemli. Nitekim eski komisyon bakanlarndan Jacques Delorsun Avrupa entegrasyonu iin eer demokratik yollardan yapsak, bu kadar ok ilerleyemezdik sz de bouna deildi. Yine Delorsun bir beyanatna gre bugn Avrupada geerli olan yasalarn %50si ve e konomi ile ilgili dzenlemelerin %80i Brkselde yapld. Yani ye lkelerin seilmi parlamentolar, sadece bu oranlardan geriye kalanlar yapt. Ve eer demokratik yollardan yaplsayd, bu kadar ilerlenemezdi Yzlerce milyon Avrupal demokratik bir dzende yaadklarn dnyorlar. Ama aslnda onlar kimin idare ettiini bilmiyorlar. Sadece akllarnda 50li ve 60l yllardan kalan, ucuz reklam sloganlar ve basit propaganda szleri var. Buna gre Avrupa Birlii insan odakl bir projedir. Hatta bir bar projesidir. Bundan baka Avrupann btnleme hedefi ktada bir daha sava olmamasdr. Ayrca hedef btn ktada geerli bi r hukuk dzeni kurmak bu sayede gelimi bir kimlik ve ona ait toplum tanzim etmektir. Ama hi de yle olmad Hatta -kimse inkar edemez- Avrupa Birlii bugn Avrupallarn zgrl karsndaki en byk tehdit haline geldi. Zavall Yunan halk tasarruf yapmak istiyor mu? Fakirleen Orta Avrupa lkelerin yurttalar sbvansiyonlardan feragat etmek istiyor mu? Kuzey Avrupallar Akdenizlilerin bte aklarn kapatmak iin mali anlamda fedakrlk yapmak istiyor mu? Onlar -hepsi- lkelerindeki seimlerinde hkmetlerini seerken, ona bunlar yapmas iin mi yetki veriyor? 80li yllara kadar Avrupada pek ok detay halen beeniyi hak ediyordu. Ama ekonomi topluluunun glendirilmesi ve devamnda ortak pazar konusunda yaanan gelimeler, birok eyi deitirdi. Gmrk duvarlarnn kaldrlmas, gmrk birliinin kurulmas ve sermay enin serbest dolam 90l yllarla beraber giderek artan ve arttka iddetlenen biimde geliti. Btn bu gelimeler yzlerce Avrupalya yenilik diye sunuldu. Evet, gerekten de bunlar yenilikti. Ama bunlarn yenilik olduu vakit 80li veya 90l yllar deil, 19. Yzyld! Bu deiimle salanan tek yenilik aslnda sadece Avrupann 20. Yzylda yaad savalarn ardndan ortaya konulan tedbir mekanizmalarnn ortadan kaldrp, btn o srecin bana dnmesiydi. ok fazla telaffuz edilmese de, Avrupada bir dier yenilik elbette Avrupa Birliinin idari yaplanmas ve karar mekanizmalarnn ileyi biimiydi. Bu yenilik de gerekten Avrupaya aitti. Ama Avrupa bu yenilii Avrupa Birliinden nce Kutsal Roma Germen mparatorluu dneminde hayata geirmiti. Tpk byk yenilik olan Nice Antlamasnn Roma mparatorluunun krallktan cumhuriyete gei dnemi belgelerinde ve uygulamalarndan tretildi. Aynen son yenilik Lizbon Antlamasnn da Nice Antlamasnn ana yaps zerinde bina edildii dnldnde, onun da ayn derecede yenilik olduu kabul edilebilir Elbette bu sreci ynetmek iin de merkezi bir yap lazmd. Bunun iin Brkselde brokrasi tekilatlandrld. Brkselin -yani Avrupa Topluluu btesinin- toplam maliyeti 1970 ylnda bugnn hesaplamasna gre takriben 4,8 mil yar EUR idi. Bugn ise tahminen 100 milyar EUR dzeyinde. Pekl, bu bte ve binlerce personel neyi ynetiyor? lk akla gelen cevap, phesiz Avrupa Birlii! Pekl, Avrupa Birlii nedir? Avrupa Birlii mevcut yaps itibariyle bir federasyon deildir. Ayrca Avrupa Birlii kesinlikle devletlerin ittifak gibi bir yap da deildir. nk Avrupa Birliini ynetenler gne ve gndeme gre, hangisini daha faydal kabul ederlerse, ona gre davranmay aklc gryor lar. Avrupa Birliini komisyonlar, komiteler, konseyler ynetiyor. Eer Almanya baarl olursa ve Avrupa Birlii federasyon, Birlik yeleri de federal devletler olursa, her devletin sahip olduu her ey Avrupa Birliinin olacak; Birlemi Milletler Gvenlik Konseyi Daimi Temsilcilii de, nkleer fze silolar da, hatta milli futbolcular da

Ama Avrupa Birliinin Avrupa Birleik Devleti veyahut baka bir isimle federasyon halini almas iin, Birlik yesi lkelerde yaayan yz milyonlarca insann buna referandumda evet demesi gerekiyor ki, zaten yaplan birka referandum geri tepince, Avrupa Birliinde bu konularda referandum yaplmamas karar alnd! Bu arada rlandada yaplmt, ama ondan olumsuz sonu knca, ikinci bir referandum yaptrlp evet sonucu alnd! Eer Avrupa Birlii -daha nce de De Gaulle ve Adenauerin tasarlad gibi - bir ittifak mimarisine sahip olsayd, yine bugnk gibi kesinlikle olamazd. ok basit ve pratik bir tarifle, ortada dev bteler, ordu gibi kalabalk brokrasi, zorlama ortak politikalar, dayatmac yetki ve egemenlik devirleri ve benzeri dier samalklar olamazd. Bu rahatsz edici tehis hakknda dnmek isteyen okuyucu, belki u soruy u da kendisine sormak ister; Demokratik rejimlerde temel birinci kural semenin kendisini ynetmesini istedii kiiyi semesidir. O halde Avrupallarn kaderine karar veren Barossoyu veya Van Rampuyu kim seti? Lksemburgtaki Avrupa Adalet Divan allm yarg biiminin aksine, hukuku uygulamakla yetinmiyor, aksine srekli yeni hukuk kurallar retiyor. Divann bu tutumu, Avrupa hukukun srekli biimde ye lkelerin milli hukukunu ihlal edip, bir bakma onu ikame etmesi sonucunu douruyor. rnein Almanya bu duruma 1993 ylndan bu yana tepki gsteriyor. Bu verilerin nda yaplacak bir deerlendirme ilk olarak u gerein hakkn teslim eder; Avrupa Birlii -yaanan krize ramen- asla dalmaz, kmez. nk Avrupa Birlii dev btesiyle ve takriben 20.000den fazla personeli ile yaayan bir organizma gibi. Ayrca Avrupa Birlii nasl bata insanlara ve bara, sonra piyasalara ve lobilere dayandysa Nasl yola kmr ve elik diye kp, imdi tahvillerle devam ediyorsa, yine uygun mutasyonla bakalar ve kendisine yeni bir ilev retir. Ondan baka unu sylemek mmkn; Avrupa Birlii bir daha asla eskisi gibi olmayacak. Ayrca yeler iin de, adaylar iin de giderek daha az cazip hale gelecek. Ayrca kresel krizin ve onun yal ktadaki yansmas olan borlar krizinin Birlik yesi lkelerdeki Avrupa ktmserliini kkrtabilir. Her durumda Avrupa Birlii -bugne kadar olduu gibi, bugnden sonra da- uyumun, demokrasinin ve yeniliin gvenli adresi olmayacak. Muhtemelen her lke iin- Birlie ye de olsa, aday da olsa- gelecee dair salam bir B plan olmas lazm. nk Avrupa Birliinin bilhassa 2007 ylnda krizin patlamasndan bu yana izledii tutum kayg veriyor. Hem krizdeki lkelere ve onlarn halkna ynelik tutumu hem de dierlerinin onlara desteine ynelik yaklam tedirgin edici. 2013 ylnda ise hala -harcanan muazzam paralara ramen- batk lkeler, iflasn eiinde devletler, perian halklar, artan isizler ve hatta Avrupada uzun yzyllarndan ilk defa ve ciddi biimde ba gsteren ar sefalet ve alk snr riski var. Elbette herkes herkesle iyi ilikiler ierisinde olmal. Ama gelecei iin iyimser olan lkeler Avrupa Birlii ile sadece iyi ilikilere sahip olsalar, galiba yeterli.

THE SECOND DIP MAY COME SOON

20 03 2013

No good news from the Eurozone Despite all sorts of optimistic announcements, the Eurozone is not recovering. According to the latest data the Eurozone experienced economic stagnation in the last quarter of 2012. Figures indicate that stagnation may become a permanent feature of the European economy. The latest data make it certain that the Eurozone has contracted by 0.6 percent in the last quarter of 2012. Economists have stated that this is the greatest contraction for the group of 17 countries in the past four years. Economic stagnation in Germany and France, engines of the Eurozone, is worrying. Given that confidence in European institutions has been falling, it is easy to understand the concerns of the European public opinion. Not many think that the European central Bank or the European Stability Mechanism can stop the crisis. Few believe that austerity measures will work. In Greece, where the same measures have been implemented for many years, 62 percent of the people under the age of 24 are unemployed. Unemployment in Greece stands at double the rate in the Eurozone. The Greek economy is expected to contract by 4.5 percent in 2013. According to the Eurostat, unemployment is at 16.5 percent in Portugal. Portugal has not had economic growth for the last three years and needed EUR 78 billion in recovery aid in May 2011 to avoid bankruptcy, thereby becoming the third country to receive recovery aid along with Greece and Ireland. Nevertheless, it has not begun its recovery. Meanwhile, across the border in Spain, the same measures have seen unemployment rise from 8 percent to 26 percent in five years. While the two largest economies of the Eurozone, Germany and France experience stagnation, the next pair of large countries; Italy and Spain are experiencing the crisis very strongly. Figures released for the Eurozone, which has spent the last three years in fear and had high hopes of 2013, have dashed hopes early on. Meanwhile, according to the World Gold Council, central banks around the world have carried out the largest purchase of gold since 1964. In 2012, central banks of the world together purchased 534.6 tonnes of gold. Gold assets are accepted to be the most secure in case of a second dip. Recently, French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault announced that his country would not reach its budget deficit target of 3 percent this year. Coming in the second month of the year, this announcement was a disappointment. This target had been fixed with the assumption of 0.8 percent growth in the French economy. However, it is becoming widely accepted that France will register zero growth this year. meanwhile, the Dutch bank ING is seeking savings. The bank will lay off 7,500 personnel. Peugeot Citroen has announced the largest loss in its history. The PSA Peugeot Citroen Group has declared a record loss of EUR 5 billion. In 2012, the groups revenues had fallen by 5.2 percent compared to the previous year to EUR 55.4 billion. One should therefore not have very high hopes of Europe in 2013.

KNC DP OK YAKINDA OLABLR

20 02 2013

Avro Blgesinden iyi haberler gelmiyor Btn iyimser aklamalara ramen Avro Blgesi iyi ynde gelime kaydetmiyor. Eldeki son bilgilere gre Avro Blgesi 2012 ylnn drdnc eyreinde de ekonomik duraanlktayd. Ayrca rakamlar ekonomik duraanln Avrupada kalc olabilecei ynnde iaretler ihtiva ediyor. Eldeki son verilere dayanarak Avro Blgesinin 2012 ylnn son eyreinde de %0,6 orannda kld kesinlik kazand. Bu durum ekonomistler tarafndan 17 lkenin ye olduu Avro Blgesinde son drt yln en byk daralmas olarak tanmlanyor. Avro Blgesinin l okomotifi olan Almanya ve Fransa'daki ekonomik duraanlk da kayg veriyor. Avrupa kurumlarna gvenin de giderek azald dnldnde, Avrupada kamuoyunun gerek anlamda ok kaygl olmasnn nedeni anlalyor. nk Avrupa Merkez Bankasnn veya Avrupa stikrar Meka nizmasnn krizi durdurabileceini dnenler ok az. Tasarruf tedbirlerinin ie yaracana inananlarn says da fazla deil. Nitekim uzun yllardr ayn nlemlerin uyguland Yunanistanda 24 ya alt genler arasndaki isizlik oran %62ye ykseldi. Yunanistandaki isizlik oran Avro Blgesi ortalamasnn iki katn geti. Yunanistan ekonomisinin 2013 ylnda %4,5 klmesi bekleniyor. Eurostat verilerine gre Portekiz'deki isizlik oran da %16,5 seviyesinde. Son 3 yldr ekonomisinde byme kaydedemeyen Portekiz, iflastan kurtulmak iin 2011 Mays'ta 78 milyar EUR kurtarma kredisine ihtiya duymu, rlanda ve Yunanistan ile kurtarma kredisi alan 3 Avrupa lkesinden biri olmutu. Fakat yine de hen z beklenen gelimeyi salayamad. Dier taraftan spanyada da ayn yntemler ve uygulamalar sonucu isizlik 5 yl iinde %8'den %26'ya kt. Avro Blgesinin en gl iki lkesi Almanya ve Fransa ekonomik duraanlk yaarken, sonraki en gl iki lkesi talya ve spanyada krizi ok ar biimde yayorlar. Son yl korkutucu senaryolarn tedirginlii ile geiren ve 2013 ylndan itibaren iyileme umudu glenen Avro Blgesinde rakamlar umutlar erken krmaya balad. Bu arada Dnya Altn Konseyi (WGC) rakamlarna gre dnya merkez bankalar 2012 ylnda 1964'ten bu yana en byk altn almn yapt. Merkez bankalar, 2012 yl ierisinde toplam 534,6 ton altn alm yapt. Altn alm mali krizde yaanacak dip noktalara kar en salkl tedbir olarak grlyor. Ksa sre nce Fransa Babakan Jean -Marc Ayrault, lkesinin %3'lk bte a hedefine ulaamayacan aklad. Henz ikinci ayda yaplan aklama da umut krc oldu. Fransann bte a hedefi, %0,8 nispetindeki byme tahminine gre hesaplanmt. Ama Fransann bu yl %0 byme kaydedecei fikri giderek daha fazla kabul gryor. Bu arada Hollandal banka ING, tasarruf nlemlerine gidiyor. Bu kapsamda toplamda 7.500 alan iten kartlacak. Ayrca Peuge ot Citroen tarihinin en byk zararn aklad. PSA Peugeot Citroen Grubu, 2012 ylnda 5 milyar EUR ile tarihinin rekor dzeydeki en byk zararn yaadn deklare etti. PSA Peugeot Citroen Grubu 2012 ylnda, 2011 ylna oranla %5,2 orannda azalma ile 55,4 milyar EUR ciro yapt. Dolaysyla Avrupada 2013 ylna ilikin gl umutlarn beslenmemesi gerekiyor.

THE MALACHY PROPHECY COMES UP AGAIN

20 03 2013

What if Saint Malachy was right? The Mayan Calendar, its end and the associated story of the end of the world are now in the past. New developments produce new scenarios for the apocalypse. With Pope Benedict the 16th resigning from his duties, the Malachy Prophecy or the Popes Prophecy has come up. It will be more difficult to laugh this one off. Malachy was an Irish priest who lived between 1094 and1148. While his original name was Ua Morgair he chose Malachy, which means my messenger in Hebrew. I his prophecies, Saint Malachy described the 112 popes who would assume office after 1143. Pope Benedi ct the 16th is at the end of this list and the 111 popes Malachy described speak to the truth of the prophecy. Accordingly Peter will come to head the Roman Catholic Church after Pope Benedict the 16 th. Peter will be the last pope. There will be disasters under his term and a city with seven hills will be destroyed. Roma and Jerusalem are founded on seven hills. Having once been the centre of the Roman Empire, Istanbul also comes to mind. But there are other cities founded on seven hills such as Athens, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Moscow, Tehran and Mecca.

Those who interpret the prophecy claim that there will be a third world war. They touch on Iran and Ahmadinejad in this context. They say that th there will be extraordinary developments on the 28 of October. This prophecy and related calculations have previously been used to predict important developments, none of which have come true. But in any case, there is new material to talk about. To think about prophecies is good. It exercises the mind and stimulates research. There is no harm in it as long as one does not confuse facts with fantasy. There is an important detail we should not miss. The prophecies attributed to Saint Malachy were collected in book form in the th 16 century and exhibit great similarities with the Book of Revelations. They follow very similar patterns. The Mayan calendar issue is over. It is now clear that the end of the Mayan calendar did not signify the end of the world. If there were true details, those who got them are keeping them to themselves. Now it is all about the Malachy Prophecy. If it turns out to be correct the Catholic Church will come to an end. There will also be great disasters. If Malachy is wrong, there is no problem; but he has not been wrong about the past 112 popes. th If Malachy is right about the 113 pope, we will soon find out which city with seven hills will be destroyed.

MALACHY KEHANET YENDEN GNDEMDE!

20 02 2013

Ya Aziz Malachy Hakl se Maya Takvimi gemite kald, takvimin sonu ve dnyann sonu hikyeleri de gemite kald. Ama gelimeler yeni kyamet senaryolar retiyor. imdi de, Papa 16. Benediktusun grevlerini brakmas ile beraber Malachy Kehaneti veya Papalar Kehaneti yeniden gndeme geldi. Ama bu defa glp gemek daha zor olacak Malachy rlandal bir aziz ve 1094-1148 yllar arasnda yaad. Gerek ad Ua Morgair idi, ama o branicede habercim anlamna gelen Malachyi isim olarak seti. Aziz Malachy kehanetinde 1143 ylndan sonra greve gelecek 112 papay tarif etti. Papa 16. Bene diktus bu listenin sonunda yer alyor ve ondan nceki 111 papa Aziz Malachynin kehanetinin doru olduunu gsterdi! Buna gre Papa 16. Benediktustan sonra Roma Katolik Kilisesinin bana Peter gelecek. Peter son papa olacak. Onun dnemin de felaketler yaanacak ve yedi tepeli ehir yok olacak. Devamnda da korkun hkim insanlar yarglayacak. stanbulun eskiden Roma mparatorluunun bizatihi kendisi olmas hasebiyle, bu ynde de yorumlar yaplyor. Ama Roma ve Kuds ehirleri de yedi tepe zerine kurulu. A ma Atina, San Francisco, Moskova, Los Angeles, Tahran ve Mekke gibi baka yedi tepe zerine kurulmu ehirler de var Sz konusu kehaneti yorumlayanlar, nc Dnya Sava olabileceini iddia ediyorlar. Bu kapsamda ran ve Mahmud Ahmedinecad a deiniyorlar. 28 Ekim tarihinde sra d, nemli ve tehlikeli gelimeler olacan ileri sryorlar. Daha nce de bu kehaneti ve hesaplamalar esas alarak, birtakm ok byk ve nemli gelimelerin ngrld oldu, ama hepsi bo kt. Fakat her durumda nmzde konuacak, tartacak yeni bir materyal var. Kehanetler zerine kafa yormak iyidir. Aratrmacl gelitirir, zihnin gcn pekitirir. Gerek ile hayal birbirine karmad srece, temel kavram doru bilindii srece kimseye zarar da olmaz. Gzden karmamak gereken nemli bir ayrnt var. Aziz Malachynin dil e getirdii ve 1500l yllarda kitaplatrlan kehanetler Yeni Ahitin Vahiy Kitabnn muhteviyat ile ok byk benzerliklere sahip. Hatta ayn mantk rgs ile onu tamamlyor. Maya takvimi konusu kapand. Mayalarn takvimi bitince, dnyann da, tarihin de bitmeyecei anlald. Eer Maya takviminin anlatt baka detaylar varsa, onu da sadece anlayanlar anlad. imdi ise yeni konu Malachynin kehaneti Eer Malachy kehanetinde hakl ise Katolik Kilisesi yolun sonuna geldi. Ayrca byk facialar da yaanacak. Eer Malachy yanldysa sorun yok, ama Malachy bundan nceki 111 papa konusunda da, 112. papa hakknda da yanlmad! Eer Malachy 113. papa hakknda da yanlmazsa, hangi yedi tepeli ehrin mahvolacan renmemize galiba ok az kald.

WHAT COULD HAPPEN ?

20 03 2013

Possible developments following the resignation of Pope Benedict the 16 Child abuse, rape, compensation, court trials, money laundering, document leaks: things had never been so bad for the Roman Catholic Church. The papacy had had a prestige problem for a long time, but its standing had never fallen so low. Perhaps some practical methods may now come on the agenda. the Roman Catholic Church is in serious need of restoration. The accumulated scandals now way heavier than the aged columns of the Vatican can support. In the past, papal scandals would be heard by a limited group of people. But now, even school children can access the dirty secrets of the Vatican. Thanks to the internet, walls are thinner now. Everyone can see and hear each other. With the changing times, the Vatican no longer has the luxury of acting deaf and blind in the face of developments. The Roman Catholic Church can no longer remain indifferent to and overlook developments. Everything and everyone have changed. The church also has to change. Today, an important part of the world think the following about the Vatican: There is great famine and poverty in the world. The Pope does not help people in need, but only prays for them. The pope and his cardinals do not like or respect anyone who is not a Catholic. Priests attached to the Vatican are child molesters. The Vatican bank launders money and deals with the mafia. People who respect the church and do not want the Catholic faith to be tarnished may come up with suitable explanations for all of the above. But no amount of explaining can change the painful truth. Explanations by Catholics will not change these facts. Only action by the Roman catholic Church can change these. The church will undoubtedly get rid of rotten apples within its ranks soon. A fall in child abuse may be hoped for. But the Roman Catholic Church will have to do more to regenerate trust. For an institution which is at the centre of Catholic faith, a statistical fall in cases of child abuse will not be a very good line to brag about. It would be like pro-Church papers trying to cover up the scandals by comparing figures of sexual assault in various countries to cases in churches and monasteries. It would be ideal if priests respected the sexual identity and bodies of other people rather than there being comparatively fewer cases of sexual assault in places of worship. What else can the Vatican do? What could be a step that will allow people to have confidence in the Vatican? What may be done so that people have greater sympathy for the church? We are going through a tough time in European history. The European Union is in economic stagnation. Members of the Eurozone are experiencing collective and individual difficulties. It is expected that the year 2013 will be a financially difficult one for Europe. The debt crisis has resulted in lower output and employment in European Union countries. The second dip may happen in 2013. As the Union will find it more difficult to put up with any more state bankruptcies, it becomes more difficult to be optimistic regarding Spain and Italy. The European Union has prioritised austerity measures t overcome the crisis. Lower levels of public spending, investment and pay are thought to be the answers to the crisis. In this system there are two fundamental methods: one is savings and transfer of resources and the other is the serving of debt by borrowing at gradually lower levels of interest. The Vatican cannot do much about the first part, but it can be very active regarding the second. The Roman Catholic Church needs to set aside the miserliness it has demonstrated during disasters in various parts of the world and be more active in solving the problems of people living next door. Cardinals may set up soup kitchens to this end, or they might buy the state bonds of countries on the critical threshold. It is just an idea. Who can say it is impossible?

th

ACABA BUNDAN SONRA NE OLABLR?

20 02 2013

Papa 16. Benediktusun istifasnn ardndan baz gelimeler yaanabilir ocuk tacizcilii Tecavzler Tazminatlar Mahkemeler Kara para Belgeler Szntlar Ve saire, ve saire, ve saire Roma Katolik Kilisesi iin artlar hibir zaman bu kadar kt olmamt. Papaln uzun sredir prestij sorunu vard. Ama prestij konusund a hi bu kadar kt bir dnem olmamt Ama belki baz pratik yntemler gndeme gelebilir Roma Katolik Kilisesi ciddi anlamda restorasyon ihtiyacna sahip. nk uzun zamandr biriken skandallar Vatikann yal binalarnn stunlarnn tama gcn aacak hale geldi. Eski zamanlarda Papalkta yaanan skandallar kstl bir evrede ve snrl biimde duyulurdu. Ama artk anaokulu ocuklar dahi Papaln kirli srlarna eriebiliyor. nternet sayesinde btn dnyada btn duvarlar artk d aha ince. Herkes birbirini grebiliyor, herkes birbirini duyabiliyor. Deien a ile birlikte Vatikann gelimeleri sar ve kr gibi karlama imkn kalmad. Artk Roma Katolik Kilisesi gelimeleri hibir ey olmam gibi karlayamaz veya gelimeleri gz ard ederek, kendisini kurtaramaz... Her ey deiti, herkes deiti, Kilise de deiecek! Buna mecbur. Bunu yapmak zorunda Bugnn artlarnda dnyann nemli bir ksmnda Roma Katolik Kilisesi ve Vatikan hakknda u yarglar hkim; Dnyada byk alk ve sefalet var. Ama Papalk sadece dua eder. Onlara yardm etmez Papa da, kardinaller de Katolik olmayan hi kimseyi sevmezler. Bakasna sayg duymazlar Papala bal papazlar ocuklar taciz eder Papann bankas kara para aklar, mafyayla i yapar Muhakkak kiliseyi seven Katolik inannn yaralanmasn istemeyenlerin hemen her biri iin bir izahat vardr. Ama hibir izahat bu plak ve ac verici gerekleri deitiremez. Bunlarn deimesi Katoliklerin abalaryla ve izahatlaryla olmaz. Bunlar ancak v e ancak, sadece Roma Katolik Kilisesinin ataca admlarla olur. phesiz Kilise bir an nce bnyesindeki rk elmalar ayklayacaktr. ocuk tacizlerinde hi deilse azalma umulabilir. Ama Roma Katolik Kilisesinin yeniden gven tazelemesi iin bundan daha fazlasn yapmas gerekecek. nk Katolik inannn merkezi ve lokomotifi olan bir kurum iin ocuk tacizlerinde istatistiki azalma aptalca bir vn kayna olabilir. Tpk Kilise yanls gazetelerin eit li lkelerdeki genel cinsel saldr istatistiklerini, kiliselerde ve manastrlarda gerekleen cinsel saldrlarla kyaslayp, skandaln stn saylarla rtmeye almalar gibi deal olan kiliselerde -toplumun dier kesimlerine oranla- nispeten daha az cinsel saldr yaanmas deil, din adamlarnn baka insanlarn cinsel kimliklerine ve vcutlarna saldrmamalardr. Vatikan acaba bundan baka neler yapabilir? Vatikann yapaca ve insanlarn yeniden Vatikana gven duymasn salayaca adm ne olabilir? nsanlarn kiliseye daha fazla sempatisi duymas iin gereken ne olabilir? Avrupa tarihinin ok zor bir dnemini yayoruz. Avrupa Birlii ekonomik duraanlkta Avro blgesini meydana getiren lkeler de hem ayr ayr hem de hep beraber ekonomik duraanlkta Avrupada 2013 ylnn mali adan ok zor gemesi bekleniyor. Yaanan borlar krizi Birlik yesi lkelerde retimin dmesine ve istihdamn azalmasna neden oldu. Gelimeler Avrupa Birlii iin 2013 yl ierisinde ikinci dip nokta olabileceine iaret ediyor. Avrupa Birlii daha fazla devlet iflasn kaldrmakta zorlanacak. spanya ve talya iin iyimser olmak giderek zorlayor. Avrupa Birlii borlar krizinin almas iin tasarruf tedbirlerine ncelik tand. Daha az kamu harcamas, daha az yatrm, daha az maa ve daha az harcama ile krizin stesinden gelmeye alyor. Bu sistemde Avrupa Birlii iin iki temel eden birisi tasarruf ve kaynak transferi dier ise giderek daha dk maliyetli borlanma yoluyla borlarn evrilmesi Vatikann birincisi iin deil, ama ikincisi iin byk katks olabilir. Roma Katolik Kilisesi daha nce uzaklarda yaanan afetlerde ve felaketlerde gsterdii cimrilikten vazgeip, yan bandaki insanlarn sorunlarn zmek iin daha aktif olabilir. Kardinaller bunun iin belki aevleri kurarlar, belki kritik eikte duran Avrupa Birlii yesi lkelerin devlet tahvillerini alrlar Kim bilir? ylesine bir ihtimal ite Kim olmaz diyebilir?

GOOD RIDDANCE!
20 03 2013

Many are upset Pope Benedict the 16th has left;

Of course many people liked Pope Benedict the 16 . Everyone has admirers and everyone likes someone else. Perhaps some people are liked by th everyone who knows them. The fact is that after John Paul the Second, Pope Benedict the 16 was bland. Furthermore, there were problems with th what Pope Benedict the 16 may or may not have done. How can a person with a national socialist background, who last served as the head of inquisition and is over the age of 80 correctly evaluate the world, people and periods? th Pope Benedict the 16 had a certain outlook on Jews and Muslims. He did not like them. The pope did not like Buddhists or others for that matter. In December 2012, Pope Benedict the 16th ranked fifth in Forbes list of the worlds most powerful people. th The pope did not like Protestants either. Pope Benedict the 16 s declaration of the uniqueness of the Roman-Catholic Church angered Protestants a lot. The Orthodox were also upset. The Pope had described the Orthodox Church as something like an auxiliary or partial church. th th Therefore, no one should have expected Pope Benedict the 16 to like Muslims. Being a part of the September the 11 process, the pope declared Islam to be a religion of violence. For civilised people in civilised countries, hate crime is a bad thing. Every religion holds slander to be a vice. Openly and officially insulting a world religion and its believers, and to provoke ones 1.2 billion supporters with pr opaganda of hatred requires punishment, even if it is the pope who does it. The pope also claimed that Christianity allowed for reason and logic more so than Islam. A pope may certainly hope so, but not even a child who feels that he is taken somewhat seriously would not talk so irresponsibly. Pope Benedict the 16th stopped the excommunication of an English bishop who denied that Jews had been killed in gas chambers under the Nazis, thereby starting a new debate. A few days later Bishop Williamson stated, with the support of the pope: I do not beli eve there were gas chambers there. Between 200 thousand and 300 thousand Jews were killed in Nazi camps. But none were killed in gas chambers. Pope Benedict the 16 , who had called Buddhism brain masturbation visited the Auschwitz Concentration Camp, but upset expectations by not touching on the topic of anti-Semitism during his visit. This attitude was considered hurtful by many Jews. But the pope went further by stopping the excommunication of the far right Catholic congregation The Brotherhood of Saint Pious the Tenth. This brotherhood refuses the Second Vatican Council, which is seen as an effort to make the church compatible with the modern age and its membership is made up of far right, traditionalist Catholics. This action of Pope Benedict the 16 th almost collapsed the process of dialogue between the Catholic Church and Jewish groups which had begun in the mid-60s. Pope Benedict the 16th also insisted on the canonisation of Pope Pious the 12th. Pope Benedict the 16th, who expressed an opinion on many things ranging from abortion to genetic technology and from condoms to euthanasia also tried to alter the calendar the world uses. He claimed that Jesus may have been born six or seven years before the accepted date and therefore this might be the year 2019 or 2020 instead of 2013. Pope Benedict the 16th thought that he must express an opinion on every subject and claimed that the global economic crisis arose as a result of the lack of firm moral basis. During a visit to Brazil, he claimed that the native people of Brazil had not been made Catholic through, pressure and deceit but in response to the need they had felt for such a religion. perhaps not even Cortes had gone so far. In sum, it seems that the change of pope will be a good thing. A man who is among the worlds most powerful and who is an opi nion former fro 1.2 billion people should have different qualities than those enumerated, for the sake of world peace.
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ASLINDA OK Y OLDU!
20 02 2013

Papa 16. Benediktus gitti diye zlenler ok, ama Elbette Papa 16. Benediktusu seven ok insan vard. Herkes birilerini sever, herkesin sevenleri olur. Belki onu tanyan herkes sevebilir, mmkndr. Fakat yle bir gerek var; Papa 16. Benediktus Papa 2. Jean Paulden sonra ok skcyd. Ayrca 16. Benediktus yapmas gerekenler ve yapmamas gerekenler konusunda biraz sorunluydu Gemiinde nasyonal sosyaliz olan Son grevi Engizisyon Mahkemesi Bakanl olan 80 yan zerinde olan Bu zelliklere sa hip olan kim dnyay, insanlar ve dnemleri doru anlayabilir ki? Papa 16. Benediktusun Musevilere ve Mslmanlara bak as belliydi. Papa onlar sevmezdi. Papa Budistleri veya bakasn da sevmezdi. Papa 16. Benediktus Forbesin dnyann en gl 70 kiisi listesinde Aralk 2012de beinci sradayd. Papa aslnda Protestanlar da hi sevmezdi. 16. Benediktusun Roma-Katolik Kilisesinin tek ilan etmesi Protestanlar ok kzdrd. Ortodokslar da ok kzd. nk Papa Ortodoks Kilisesini yan kilise veya ksmi kilise gibi bir tabirle tanmlad. O nedenle Papa 16. Benediktusun Mslmanlar sevmesi de beklenmemeliydi. 11 Eyll srecinin konseptinde yer alan Papa slam da iddet dini ilan etti. Her medeni insan iin her medeni lkede nefret suu ktdr. Her dinde fitnecilik, iftiraclk ktdr. Ama byk ve evrensel bir dine ve o dinin btn inananlarna alenen ve resmi olarak hakaret etmek ve kendi 1,2 milyar yandan nefret propagandasna evklendirmek -bunu yapan Papa olsa da- cezay gerektirirdi. Papa hatta Hristiyanlkta akl ve manta Mslmanlktan daha fazla yer ayrldn da iddia etti. Bir Papa e lbette bunu umabilir ve belki byle bir kanaate de sahip olabilir. Ama szlerinin ciddiye alndn bilen ve kendisinin bir para nemsendiini hisseden hibir ocuk, bu de recede sorumsuzca konumaz. Papa 16. Benediktus Yahudilerin Nazi Almanyas dneminde gaz odalarnda ldrldklerini inkr eden ngiliz piskoposun aforozunu kaldrarak, baka bir tartmay balatt. Birka gn sonra ise Williamson Papann destei ile verdii demecinde unu syledi; Orada gaz odalarnn olmadna inanyorum. Nazi kamplarnda 200 ila 300 bin Yahudi hayatn kaybetti. Fakat hibiri gaz odalarnda ldrlmedi Daha nce de Budizm iin beyin mastrbasyonu diyen 16. Benediktus, Auschwitz Toplama Kampn da ziyaret etti, ama ziyareti srasnda beklendii gibi antisemitizm konusuna deinmedi. Papann bu tutumunu ou Musevi cemaati yaralayc olarak tanmlad. Ama Papa 16. Benediktus bununla da yetinmedi. Papa ar sac bir Katolik cemaat olan Aziz 10. Pius Kardelii hakkndaki aforoz kararn kaldrd. Aziz 10. Pius Kardelii, Roma Katolik Kilisesi'ni modern dnemlerle uyumlu hale getirme abas olarak nitelenen kinci Vatikan Konsili'ni kabul etmeyen, ar sac ve geleneki Katolikleri bnyesinde toplayan bir grup olarak tannyor. Papa 16. Benediktusun bu tutumu Katolik

Kilisesi ile Yahudilik arasnda 1960'l yllarn ortalarnda balayan diyalog srecini kme noktasna getirdi. Hatta Papa 12. Pius'u aziz ilan etme giriiminde srar etti. Ama krtajdan gen teknolojisine, prezervatiften tenaziye kadar her eye kar olan ve her konuda konuan Papa 16. Benediktus btn dnyann kulland takvime dahi mdahale etmek istedi. Papaya gre, Hz. sa'nn doum gn olarak kabul edilen 25 Aralk gerek olmay abilir. Papa 16. Benediktus'a gre, Hz. sa sanlann aksine 6 veya 7 yl ncesinde doduunu yazd. Papaya gre 2013 deil 2019 veya 2020 ylnda olabiliriz. Her konuda gr belirtmek zorunda olduunu dnen Papa 16.Benediktus, kresel ekonomik krizin salam bir etik temel olmamasndan doduunu syledi. Ayrca Brezilya ziyareti konumasnda Brezilya'da yerlilere Katolikliin zorlama, bask ve hile ile deil, teden beri byle bir dine ektikleri hasrete cevaben geldiini syledi. Bu kadar ileriye belki Cortes bile gitmemiti. Dier bir deyile, Papann deimesi daha iyi olacak gibi grnyor. Nihayetinde dnyann en gl adamlar arasnda ve en az 1,2 milyar insann nemseyecei bir kanaat nderinin daha baka vasflara da sahip olmas dnya barnn yararna olur.

WHY HAS THE POPE LEFT?

20 03 2013

Cardinal Joseph Aloisius Ratzinger has quit. Ratzinger is no longer the head of state of the Vatican or the successor of Peter the A postle and the spiritual leader of Catholics. Cardinal Ratzinger has resigned from his duties as head of state. As a result he has abdicated from his position as the successor to Peter and the spiritual leadership of Catholics. There is no longer a Benedict the 16 th. This was an unexpected move by the Pope and it came as a surprise. While the pope was not expected to make this move, it was necessary that he took it. In the last mass the pope presided over after he had announced his resignation, many people were in tears. The tears were perhaps because of the departure of Pope Benedict the 16th, perhaps they were because the sad state of the church is bad enough to necessitate the resignation of the pope. To the consistory assembled in the Hall of Paolo the 6th, Pope Benedict the 16th gave a speech entitled the Rule of Christ and Heaven and said: I declare that I renounce the ministry of Bishop of Rome, Successor of Saint Peter, entrusted to me by the Cardinals on 19 April 2005. Dear Brothers, I thank you most sincerely for all the love and work with which you have supported me in my ministry and I ask pardon for all my defects. And now, let us entrust the Holy Church to the care of Our Supreme Pastor. To be realistic, one must observe that Benedict the 16th was a pope for the times. Just like his predecessor Pope John Paul the Second, he had taken up his duties thanks to lobby influence, the opinion of relevant states, the preference of the conjectural circumstances. Pope John Paul the Second was Polish. The most Catholic country within the Eastern Bloc at the time was Poland and the pope had presided over the spectacular rise of the Solidarity Union in Poland and the rising influence of religion in Catholic countries under communist regimes. Pope Benedict the 16th took up his duties in 2005, some time into the September the 11 thprocess. With his strict personality and his career including being the head of the inquisition he was the new pope for the new times. Everything comes to an end and time waits for no man. His time is now also up. The Vatican, the state Pope Benedict the 16th, dubbed Gods Rottweiler by the European press, was often criticised for money laundering during his term in office. The Bank of Vatican thus came to be heard of more often than actual banks which pay for their publicity. Pope Benedict the 16th, who has been documented to be a former Nazi nevertheless ruled happily in his country of 836 people and land area of 0.44 kilometres squared. But there were other problems in this crowded country of 1,900 people per square kilometre. Another problem Pope Benedict the 16th faced was claims of child abuse in the Catholic church which increased in number to the extent that they could not be considered exceptions. Dark Clouds over the Vatican: Money Laundering The Vatican is perhaps the smallest state in the world. It has rich gold reserves. It also owns very valuable real estate. Valuable bonds and shares are also in its possession. The largest collection of works of art in the world is probably worth more than all of the above combined. However, no one outside of the Vatican has any idea about the true value of all these treasures. The Papacy owns 100,000 pieces of real estate in Italy alone. The Vatican also has hospitals, universities, hotels, hospice homes, direct and indirect partnerships. To this must be added the flowing donations from 1.2 billion Catholics around the world and the organisations in which they participate. In 1942 Pope Pious the 12th established the bank Instituto per le Opere di Religione (IOR). The IOR, namely the Institute for Religious Operations, had been conceived to participate in the international markets, which it did. However, an important development prior to this was the establishment of the Commissio Ad Pias Causas by Pope Leo the 13th on the 11th of February 1887. This organisation, the Commission for Pious Causes was renamed the Amministrazione delle Opere di Religione (AOR: Administration for Religious Operations) in 1908, by Pope Pious the 10 th. The AOR was busy for a long time with collecting and inventorying the wealth of the Papacy. It also ensured coordination over fiscal matters between the Vatican and Italy. In 1942, the existence of the AOR was pretty much a secret for everyone. The AOR was responsible directly to the pope and a reorganisation was deemed necessary. On the 27th of July 1943 Pope Pious the 12th renamed AOR as IOR and on the 24th of January 1944 the IOR formally became a bank. Under its first president Bernardino Nogara, the IOR grew rapidly. The system which at first concerned itself only with fiscal transactions carried out big investments and made a lot of profit. Sometimes the choice of investment caused surprise. That the bank should invest in Italian arms firms drew reaction. However, the strongest reaction came from Catholics opposed to birth control when investments in birth control pills became public. The IOR and its president Archbishop Paul Casimir Marcinkus were involved in a major scandal at the end of the 1970s. The other actors of the drama were the Banco Ambrosiano, many members of the mafia and some Masonic lodges. Pope John Paul the First, who assumed his duties in

1978 died after 33 days in office. Known to some as Gods smile because of his cheerful countenance, it is claimed that Pop e John Paul the First had tried to stop illegal activity and money laundering in the Vatican and wanted to expose those responsible. Allegedly, the pope was poisoned. With the murder of Italian banker Roberto Calvi in 1982, things became more complicated. Roberto Calvi was a key name in drug money laundering in Italy and Latin America. He was also in charge of many of the Vaticans financial operations. With the murder of Roberto Calvi and his secretary Graziella Corrocher, the scandal assumed enormous proportions. After assuming duties, Pope John Paul the Second set up a commission of five cardinals, the Commissione Cardinalizia Di Vigilanza, and charged it with preventing the IOR from taking any further shady actions. Nevertheless, the wealth of the Papacy occasionally drew the interest of the press. The book Vatican Corp. published in 2009 by the Italian journalist Gialuigi Nuzzi caused Angelo Caloia, head of the bank for the past twenty years to resign. st On the 21 of September 2010 the Italian financial authorities seized EUR 23 million worth of funds in the IORs account. transfers from the IOR to around 15 banks, worth almost EUR 140 million were also taken under inspection. Later the president of the bank Ettore Gotti Tedeschi and its general secretary Paolo Cipriani were prosecuted on charges of money laundering. The IOR refused the allegations and demanded that its funds be freed. The court overruled the IORs demands. The European Union arranged a monetary agreement with the Vatican. The only way the Vatican could save its 23 million Euros was to sign a seemingly straightforward international agreement. Thus as of the 1st of January 2010 the Vatican entered a monetary union with Italy and the Vatican as a natural consequence accepted EU legislation on money laundering and related topics. This proved to be a tactical mistake. Towards the end of the year the Vatican announced that it would take steps to combat illegal financial and monetary activity. Upon this development the Italian financial police had to release the EUR 23 million which had been seized: as the Vatican had established an official institution in line with its promises, the Italian court had to respect its jurisdiction. For the first time the European Union Commission had to pressurise Italy over the Vatican and demanded transparency. The IOR still answers to the pope. Although the IOR is part of the property of the papacy it does not fall under the Amministrazione del Patrimonio della Sede Apostolica (the Apostolic Patrimony Administration). The IOR is involved in the management of the financial traffic of all Catholic institutions around the world, including bishoprics, orders, foundations and other such organisations. All of these parties have accounts with the IOR. In 1989, the IOR had made bond purchases worth EUR 3.5 billion in todays prices from world markets. In 1994 cardinal C astillo Lara had presided over the purchase of USD 4 billion worth of bonds. In 1992, the IORs gold reserves, established in the 1930s, was a nnounced to be worth USD 83 million. But according to the Italian magazine LEspressoannual donations to the Vatican from Bavaria alone are worth EUR 86 million. It was announced that in 2011, the Vatican had made earnings worth EUR 32.3 million from trade in real estate. It had also earned EUR 22 million from museums and personnel discounts. Furthermore, Italians pay around EUR 991 million every year to the Vatican under the name of church tax. The Vatican has significant investment in the tourism sector. Its tourist business has a total bed capacity of 250,000. Its tourism revenues amount to EUR 5 billion per annum. In 2011, Pope Benedict the 16th established an authority for fiscal regulation, which answers directly to him. In March 2012, in its annual report, the Us State Department deemed the Vatican to be partially suitable for money laundering operations, alongside Ireland, Poland and Hungary. The organisation Moneyval, which inspected the Vaticans financial system in 2012 announced that it was concerned. Moneyval state d that the Vatican only complied with seven out of 16 fundamental criteria of financial accountability. Moneyval inspectors, who work in tandem with the European Council expressed discomfort at the lack of transparency. In May 2012 Ettore Gotti Tedeschi was forced to resign. Of course the Vatican was not pleased at these developments. Angelo Bagnasco, president of the Conference of Italian Bishops accused Brussels of being an enemy of the church. But the outcome remained the same. European institutions have insistently demanded more steps from the Vatican, such as registering the names of senders of transactions and the prevention of anonymous bank accounts and cheques. Europe does not want the Vatican to become the second address of a long list of undesirables such as third world dictators, mobsters, corrupt politicians and other living in conflict with the law. There have been important developments in early 2013. In January and February 2013, the Vaticans credit and credit card traf fic was halted. The Italian central bank Banca dItalia and the countrys highest regulatory authority demanded that such transactions are not carried out as they are by the Vatican. According to European Union law, banks operating in a European Union member state can only have dealings with banks in nonmember states provided the country has an official organisation tasked with the prevention of money laundering. As of February 2013, the Vatican had announced that its credit traffic had been freed. It is clear that many negotiations have been held behind closed doors in this process. It is probable that these talks heavily featured the issues to do with money laundering. It might be that Pope Benedict the 16th lost or had to get out of the way, leading to his resignation. Perhaps Pope Benedict the 16th had to distance himself from a system which he did not defend and cardinals whose interests were hurt. Pope Benedict the 16th had to leave because he consented to financial regulation and transparency. perhaps he thought it would be best to resign so as not be left under the rubble and pass down as the pope whose finances was inspected. Perhaps he made some promises in exchange for financial regulation and transparency. The tired and sad figure of the pope seen in camera footage as his supporters bade him farewell in tears, might not be due to his advanced age as official accounts have it. The long face may be due to the defeat of the church in financial matters rather than joint ache. Although the faith might be the most important thing for the church, if its financial architecture changes and a period of regulation and transparency begins, the house of cards and the sand castle might collapse.. Vatileaks It would not be correct to claim that the one reason for the resignation of Pope Benedict the 16 th was his inability to protect the church from financial regulation. The decision to resign, which the pope has deemed an important one for the life of the church may rest on certain other reasons. But the Vatileaks scandal is not among them. The Vatican has not been a stranger of scandal in its past, under 265 popes. The church has had popes known for their love life and their illegitimate children, despite the clergy being banned from having relations with women. There has even been a woman pope. Joan pretended to be a man and ruled the Catholic church for three years. More surprisingly, she became pregnant and gave birth. According to various sources, while Joan kept her pregnancy hidden for nine months, she gave birth during a pageant in 855. The head of an institutions which has seen such things is unlikely to resign from his office, something which has not been done in 600 years, due to a leak of documents.

Pope Benedict the 16 s aide Paolo Gabriele made copies of secret correspondence of the Pope and leaked them to the journalist Gianluigi Nuzzi. th Nuzzi published these documents in his book His Excellency the Pope: Secret Documents of Pope Benedict the 16 . The Vatileaks scandal is significant and shines some light on the money laundering issue, but it is not on its own enough to explain the popes resign ation. One Last Possibility Under Pope Benedict the 16 , the clergy has been involved in numerous child abuse scandals in countries such as the USA, Mexico, Ireland and th Italy. The pope has not been silent on the issue. He has made important statements. Pope Benedict the 16 has said that child abuse is an evil for all segments of society and that he was deeply sorry. The popes approach has not been enough to stop child abuse, paedo philes or the courts. Approximately 5,500 Catholic clergymen are being prosecuted for sexual assault of children. Approximately 13,000 children are thought to have been victimised. In the USA some non-governmental organisations are calling for the categorisation of sexual assault of children by religious officials under crimes against humanity. Although the initiative is new in theory the catholic Church, the Pope and the state of Vatican may come to be p ut on trial at the International Criminal Court. Certain attempts have been made at this. The clergymen work in a hierarchy ad under a an administrative and legal regulation structure. If their actions constitute a crime, then it can be claimed that their supervisors have been negligent. In 2011 comprehensive reports of child abuse in the church have been published in Ireland. The reports caused an outpouring of anger. Pope Benedict the 16th called on priests guilty of child abuse to repent and the families of the children to make peace with the church. Irish Pri me Minister Enda Kenny claimed that the Vatican was trying to obstruct child abuse investigations and that it was making light of the rape and torture of children in order to maintain its power and prestige. In 2011-2012 alone the Catholic Church has received 8,500 complaints of sexual abuse and sexual assault. About 60 percent of these complaints come from the victims themselves. Of course not every victim and their families may have dared to act immediately. Therefore we are still far away from having an estimate of the real numbers. These figures come from official statements regarding a call centre the church has set up. But at the end of 2012 the church discontinued the call centre due to a lack of interest. But the 8,500 calls received in 2011 -2012 show that there might be benefit in continuing the operations of the call centre. It is possible that the call centre was discontinued precisely because it revealed too much. With its decision to discontinue it, the church has shut its eyes and preferred not to see what is going on. This is not a new type of behaviour. The church has signalled its reluctance to change. In 2010, a commission in Belgium inspected the period from 1950 to 1980. Hundreds of cases of rape, sexual assault and sexual abuse by Catholic clergymen against children were identified. The victims numbered 786. 13 of them committed suicide. The same situation applies to Poland. Dutch writer Ekke Overneck has claimed that thousands of Polish children have been abused by Catholic clergymen in his book Be Afraid. In January 2013 Pope Benedict the 16th read many news and reports of child abuse, rape and sexual assault by priests. According to the John Jay Report between 1950 and 2002, there have been 10.667 identified cases within the American Catholic Church. In 2010, there were 200 cases within the German church. According to the statement given by Archbishop Silvano Tomasi to the United Nations Human Rights Commission, between 15 percent and 5 percent of Catholic clergymen were involved in sexual crimes in the last 50 years. In between 80 to 90 percent of the cases the victim is male and between 11 and 17 years of age. In the USA the Catholic Church has so far paid out USD 2.6 billion in compensation to the victims. In Ireland 14,000 people have won compensation averaging EUR 100,000 due to having been assaulted by priests. New information is constantly emerging regarding the matter. The continuation of the process may have dramatic consequences for the Vatican. World public opinion is as angry with the church as it has never been. Pope Benedict the 16th may have given up his seat for any of these reasons. What is certain is that an exciting time awaits the church.
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PAPA NEDEN GTT?

20 02 2013

Kardinal Joseph Aloisius Ratzinger i brakt. Ratzinger artk Vatikan Devlet Bakan da deil, Havari Petrusun Halefi ve Katoliklerin ruhani lideri de deil. Kardinal Ratzinger devlet bakanlndan istifa etti. Bununla beraber Petrusun hilafetinden ve Katolik leminin ruhani liderliinden de feragat etti. Dolaysyla artk 16. Benediktus yok. Papann bu hamlesi beklenmiyordu, srpriz oldu. Papann bu admlar atmas beklenmiyordu, fakat gerekiyordu. Papann grevlerini terk edeceini aklamasnn ardndan ynettii son halka ak ayinde, saysz insan bu dramatik an gzyalarna boularak izledi. Bu gzyalar belki Papa 16. Benediktus gittii iindi, belki de Kilisenin iine dt bu halin, en sonunda Papann btn gre vlerinden vazgemesini gerektirecek derecede trajik olduu iindi Papa 16. Benediktus Genel Kabul Gn'ne katlan inananlarn son defa selamlarken, VI. Paolo Salonu'nda sa ve Cennet'in Hkmranl balkl konumasnda, "19 Nisan 2005'te Tanr'nn emaneti olarak edindiim bu grevimi brakma karar aldm. Tanr'nn nnd e gnlerce vicdan muhasebesi yapp, dikkatlice ve zgr irademle bu karar aldm. Benim iin, benden sonra gelecek Papa iin ve Kilise iin dua etmeye devam edin. Tanr bizim rehberimiz olacaktr dedi Gereki olmak lazm; Papa 16. Benediktus aslnda konsept papa idi. Tpk selefi Papa 2. Jean Paul gibi lobil erin etkisi, ilgili devletlerin fikri, dnemsel artlarn tercihi ve konjoktrel yapnn istei ile greve gelmiti. Papa 2. Jean Paul Polonyal idi. O dnemde Dou Bloku ierisinde en Katolik lke Polonya idi ve Papann o dnemde bata Polonyadaki Dayanma Sendikasnn mthi ykselii ve paralelinde komnist rejimlerin hkim olduu dnemde Katolik kkenli toplumlarda dinin etkinliinin artmasnda yksek etkisi oldu. Papa 16. Benediktus da 2005 ylnda 11 Eyll srecinin balamasndan bir sre sonra greve geldi. Sert yapsyla engizisyon kurulu/mahkemesi bakanl ieren kariyeriyle yeni dnemin yeni papas oldu. Her ey biter, her ey sona erer ve herkes gider. Velhasl onun da dnemi sona erdi, onun da zaman bitti.

Avrupa basnnn bazen adndan Tanrnn Rotweileri diye sz ettii Papa 16. Benediktusun banda olduu devlet -Vatikan- onun dneminde sklkla kara para aklama operasyonlar nedeniyle eletirildi. Bank of Vatikan bu olaylar nedeniyle adn televizyonlarda ve gazetelerde reklamlara para deyen btn bankalardan daha fazla duyurdu. Eski bir Nazi olduu belgelenen Papa 16. Benediktus, 836 kiilik nfusa ve 0,44 kilometrekarelik yzlmne sahip lkesinde yine mutlu biimde grevini srdrebilirdi. Ama kilometrekareye 1.9 00 kiinin dt kalabalk lkede baka sorunlar da vard. Papa 16. Benedikt iin bir dier nemli sorun da Katolik kilisesinde srekli artan ve artk asla istisna saylmaya uygun olmayan ocuk istismar iddialar i di. Vatikann zerine Kara Bulutlar; Kara Para Vatikan dnyann en kk birka devletinden birisi, belki de en k. Vatikan byk bir altn rezervine sahip Vatikann bundan baka ok deerli gayrimenkulleri var. Bunun yan sra deerli hisseler ve tahviller sz konusu. Dnyann en byk ve en muazzam sanat eseri koleksiyonlar ise belki hepsinden daha byk deere sahip Ama gerek deerinin tahmin dahi edilmesi olanaksz olan bu hazineler hakknda Vatikan dnda olan herhangi bir kimsenin bir fikri olmas mmkn deil. Papalk sadece talyada 100.000 gayrimenkuln sahibi. Ayrca Vatikann hastaneleri, okullar, niversiteleri, otelleri, huzur evleri, ayrca dorudan ve dolayl ortaklklar var. Buna 1,2 milyar Katoliin ve ayrca onlarn ye olduu kurum ve kurulularnn yamur gibi yadrdklar balar da eklemek lazm. 1942 ylnda Papa 12. Pius -stituto per le Opere di Religione- (IOR) adl bankay kurdu. IOR, yani Din leri Enstits uluslararas mali piyasalarda faaliyet gstermesi iin kurulmutu, yle de oldu. Ama bundan nceki ilk nemli gelime 11 ubat 1887de Papa 13. Leonun Commissio Ad Pias Causas adl komisyonu kurmasyd. Dini Amalar in Komisyon adn tayan bu kurulu, 1908 ylnda Pap a 10. Pius tarafndan Amministrazione delle Opere di Religione- (AOR), yani Dini ler daresi eklinde yeniden adlandrld. AOR uzun sre Papaln servetinin bir araya getirilmesi ve dzenlenmesi ile megul oldu. AOR Vatikan ile talya arasndaki mali konularn koordinasyonunu da salad. 1942 yl geldiinde AORun varl hemen herkes iin bir srd. AOR dorudan papaya balyd ve yeniden dzenlenmesine ihtiya duyuldu. Papa 12. Pius 27 Temmuz 1942 tarihinde AORun IOR adn aldn ilan etti ve IOR 24 Ocak 194 4 tarihinde gerek bir banka halini ald. IOR ilk bakan Bernardino Nogara dneminde hzla byd. Balangta sadece birka mali ilemle megul olan sistem byk yatrmlar yapt ve ok byk kazanlar elde etti. Ama sz konusu yatrmlar bazen aknlk da yaratt. Bankann talyann silahlanmasn salayan firmalara yatrm yapmas bazen tepki grd. Ama en ok tepkiyi doum kontrolne tepki gsteren Katolikler tarafndan doum kontrol haplarna yaplan yatrm grd. IOR ve o dnemdeki bakan Bapiskopos Paul Casimir Marcinkus 1970li yllarn sonunda ok byk bir skandala kart. Bu skandaln dier aktrleri Banco Ambrosiano adl banka, ok sayda mafya yesi, baz mason localaryd. 1978 ylnda greve balayan Papa 1. J ean Paul 33 gnlk papalnn ardndan ld. Tarihe gler yz nedeniyle Tanrnn glmsemesi diye geen Papa 1. Jean Paul baz iddialara gre, Vatikandaki yasad operasyonlarn zerine gitti, kara para aklama operasyonlarna kar kt ve sulular gn na k armak istedi. Bunun zerine papa zehirlendi. 1982 ylnda talyan bankac Roberto Calvinin ldrlmesi ile her ey daha ok kart. Roberto Calvi talyada ve Latin Amerikada uyutur ucu paras aklanmas operasyonlarnn kilit ismiydi. Roberto Calvi ayn zamanda Vatikann da pek ok mali operasyonunu da yneti yordu. Roberto Calvinin ve sekreteri Graziella Corrocherin ldrlmeleri ile skandal bir gibi byd. Papa 2. Jean Paul greve baladktan sonra be kardinalden meydana gelen bir komisyon - Commissione Cardinalizia Di Vigilanza- kurdu ve bu komisyona IORun artk daha fazla karanlk ilere girmesini nleme grevi verdi. Papaln serveti yine zaman zaman basnn ilgisini ek ti. 2009 ylnda talyan gazeteci Gialuigi Nuzzinin Vatikann mali ilemleri hakknda yaynlad Vatikan A.. adl kitab bankann 20 yllk bakan Angelo Caloiann istifasna neden oldu. 21 Eyll 2010 tarihinde talyan mali polisi IORun bir hesabndaki 23 milyon EUR tutarndaki mevduata el koydu. Ayrca yaklak IORdan 15 bankaya yaplan 140 milyon EUR tutarndaki transfer ilemleri de mercek altna alnd. Bunun devamnda bankann bakan Ettore Gotti Tedeschi ve genel sekreteri Paolo Cipriani hakknda kara para aklama phesiyle dava ald. IOR sz konusu sulamalar ret etti ve mevduatn serbest braklmasn talep etti. Mahkeme IORun taleplerini ret etti. Avrupa Birlii Vatikan ile para anlamas imzalanmasn salad. Vatikan iin papann 23 milyonunu kurtarmann tek yolu, basit ve sradan grnen bir uzlamayd. Para zerindeki blokaj zmek ve soruturmay sorunsuz atlatmak iin, atlacak adm birtakm uluslararas anlamalara taraf olmakt. Bu sayede 1 Ocak 2010 tarihi itibariyle Vatikan talya ile para birliine girdi ve Vatikan bunun doal bir paras olarak Avrupa Birliinin kara para aklama, sahte para ve benzeri hususlar ile ilgili yasal dzenlemelerini kabul etti. Papann taktik hatas bu oldu. Ayn yln sonlarnda Vatikan maliye ve para politikalar konusunda yasa d faaliyetler ile mcadele iin etkin admlar atacan aklad. Sz konusu gelimelerin ardndan talyan polisi Vatikann bloke edilen 23 milyon EUR tutarndaki mevduatn serbest brakmak zorunda kald, nk Vatikann verdii szler erevesinde kara para ile mcadele konusunda resmi bir kurulu kurmas sonucu, talyan mahkemesi soruturmay devretti. Tarihte ilk defa Avrupa Birlii Komisyonu talya zerinde Vatikan nedeniyle bask kurdu ve effaflk talep etti. IOR halen papann emrinde. IOR papann mal varl kapsamnda olsa da, Amministrazione del Patrimonio della Sede Apostolica -Apostlik Miras daresi- kapsamnda yer almyor. IOR bugne kadar bilanolarn yaynlamad. IOR arlkl olarak btn dnyadaki piskoposluk blgelerinin, tarikatlarn, vakflarn ve dier Katolik kurulularn mali trafiini ynetiyor. Sz konusu kesimin tamamnn IORda hesaplar bulunuyor. IORun 1989da dnya piyasalarnda 3,5 milyar EUR tutarnda tahvil alm yapt duyulmutu. Benzer bir durum iin 1994 ylnda Kard inal Castillo Lara 4 milyar USD telaffuz etmiti. IORun 1930lu yllarda kurduu altn rezervinin 1992 ylnda 83 milyon USD deerinde olduu aklanmt. Ama talyan LEspresso dergisinin bir haberine gre Vatikana sadece Bavyeradan ve sadece bir ylda gelen balardaki art miktar 86 milyon EUR Vatikann 2011 ylnda gayrimenkul ticaretinden 32,3 milyon EUR gelir elde ettii akland. Vatikann mzelerden ve personel indiriminden de 22 milyon EUR gelir salad daha nce duyulmutu. Ayrca talyanlar kilise vergisi ad altnda Vatikana her yl 991 milyon EUR dyorlar. Vatikann turizm konusunda ciddi yatrmlar var. Vatikann turizm iletmeleri 250.000 yatak kapasitesine sahip. Bu sayede Va tikan turizmde her yl 5 milyar EUR ciro yapyor. Papa 16. Benediktus 2011 ylnda mali denetim iin dorudan kendisine bal bir makam kurdu. Mart 2012de ABD Dileri Bakanl yaynlad geleneksel yllk raporlar kapsamnda Vatikann rlanda, Polonya ve Macaristan ile beraber finans sisteminin kara para aklama operasyonlarnda kullanlmaya orta derecede yatkn olduunu aklad. Vatikann mali sistemini 2012 ylnda denetleyen Moneyval kuruluu da, kaygl olduunu aklad. Moneyval Vatikann mali denetim iin gereken 16 temel kriterden yedisini uygulamadn basna duyurdu. Avrupa Konseyi ile irtibatl alan Moneyvalin mfettileri yetersiz effaflktan duyduu rahatszl duyurdu. Mays 2012de Ettore Gotti Tedeschi istifa etmek zorunda kald. Elbette Vatikan bu gelimeleri memnuniyetle karlamad. talyan Piskoposlar Konferans Bakan Angelo Bagnasco iki gn zarf nda aklama ile Brkseli kilise dmanl ile sulad. Ama sonu deimedi.

Avrupa kurumlar Vatikandan srarla bu admdan fazlasn istediler. rnein havale yapanlarn isim kaydnn tutulmas, isimsiz banka hesab almamas, isimsiz ek olmamas gibi. Avrupa Vatikann nc dnyann diktatrlerinden mafyaya, yolsuzluk batana batan siyasilerden, parasn denetimden ve kanunlardan uzak adreslerde saklamak isteyenlere kadar uzun bir liste iin Vatikann ikinci adres olmamasn istiyor. 2013 ylnn balarnda da ok nemli gelimeler yaand. Vatikann kredi ve kredi kart trafii Ocak - ubat 2013te durduruldu. talyan Merkez Bankas Banca dItalia ve en st mali denetim organ Vatikann sz konusu ilemlerinin u ana kadar olduu gibi srdrlmemesi karar ald. nk Avrupa Birliinin mktesebatna gre Avrupa Birlii yesi lkelerin bankalar Birlik dndaki lkelerin bankalaryla, o lkede kara para ile mcadele konusunda resmi ve yetkili bir kurulu olmas kouluyla muamele yapabiliyorlar. Yine ubat 2013 itibariyle Vatikan ile kredi ve kredi kart ilemlerinin ve trafiinin yeniden serbestletirildii akland. Bu srete kapal kaplarn ardnda ok sayda gizli mzakere yapld ortada... Muhtemelen yaplan grmelerde kara para ve mcadele balklar da ayrntl biimde ele alnd. Papa 16. Benediktusun gitmesinin nedeni, yenilmesi veya yoldan ekilmesi o labilir mi, elbette olabilir! Papa 16. Benediktus belki savunamad sistemden ve karlar zarar gren kardinallerden uzaklamak zorunda kald. Papa 16. Benediktus mali denetim ve effafla raz olduu iin ekilmek zorunda kald. Papa belki de bundan sonrasnda enkazn altnda kalmamak iin veya denetime maruz kalan papa olmamak iin ekilmesinin iyi olacan dnd. Kim bilir, belki mali denetim, effaflk ve ekilmesi karlnda birtakm szler de alm olabilir. Belki baz zel yazmalarn, belki baz deme ve hesap cetvellerini, hepsi mmkn Sevenleri onu gzyalaryla uurlarken, onun kameralara yansyan bezgin ve bedbin halinin sebebi resmi aklamalarda ve resmi szntlarda yer ald gibi ilerleyen ya olmayabilir. Yz hatlarn ylesine geren ve yzn dren de dizlerindeki mafsal arlar deil, kilisenin finans sahasnda urad yenilgi olabilir. Belki iman muhakkak kilise iin en nemlidir, ama mali mimarisi deiirse, stne stlk denetim ve effaflk balarsa, iskambil ktlarndan kuleler ve kumdan kaleler yklabilir. Vatileaks Papa 16. Benediktusun sadece Kilise mali denetime raz olmak zorunda brakld ve o da bunu nleyemedii iin emeklilii setii iddia edilemez. Papann Kilisenin hayat iin byk nem arz eden bir karar" diye niteledii bu tercihi baka sebeplere de dayanab ilir. Ama bu sebepler arasnda Vatileaks Skandal olduunu dnmek ok makul deil. Vatikan tarihi boyunca, 265 papann ounun dneminde skandallar yaad. Bu kilise Katolik doktrini uyarnca kadnlarla ilikiye girmeleri yasak olmasna ramen aklaryla ve gayrmeru ocuklaryla tannan papalar bile grd. Hatta kadn papa bile Joan erkek klna girerek papa oldu ve Katolik alemini 3 yl ynetti. Bundan daha da artc ve belki de travmatik olan ise papa Joann hamile kalp, dourmas oldu. Kitaplara gre Papa hamileliini dokuz ay boyunca gizlemeyi baard, ama 855 ylnda bir resmigeit srasnda sanclar tuttu ve orada dourdu. Bunu dahi yaayan bir kurumun bakannn evrak sznts olduu iddiasyla -son 600 ylda hi yaanmad biimde- grevini brakmas mantkla izah edilemez. Paolo Gabriele Papa 16. Benediktus'un zel yardmcs olduu dnemde, dorudan Papaya ait gizli yazmalar kopyalad ve gazete ci Gianluigi Nuzzi'ye szdrd. Nuzz de bu evrak Papa Hazretleri: Papa 16. Benediktus'un Gizli Belgeleri adl kitabnda yaynlad. 2011-2102 dnemini kapsayan Vatileaks skandal muhakkak ok nemli ve ksmen kara para konusuna da k tutuyor. Fakat resmin btnn -Papann istifasnanlamak iin yeterli deil. Bir htimal Daha Var Papa 16. Benediktusun dneminde ABD, Meksika, rlanda, talya gibi birok lkede baz din adamlarnn adlar ocuk tacizi skandallarna kart. Papa bu konuda sessiz kalmad. Papa nemli aklamalar yapt. Papa 16. Benediktus, ocuk tacizinin toplumun tm kesimleri i in bela olduunu ve derin znt duyduunu deklare etti. Ama Papann bu tutumu ne ocuk tacizlerini ne ocuk tacizcilerini ne de mahkemeleri durdurabildi. Yaklak verilere gre 5.500 Katolik din adam ocuklara ynelik ilenen cinsel ierikli saldrdan yarglanyor. Madur olan ocuklarn says en son 13.000 civarnda biliniyor. ABDde baz sivil toplum kurulular din adamlar tarafndan ocuklara kar ilenen cinsel taciz sularnn muhakkak insanla kar ilenen sular kapsamnda kategoride edilmesini talep etti. Bu giriim henz ok yeni olsa da, teknik ve teorik adan Katolik Kilisesi, Papa ve Vatikan Devleti Uluslararas Ceza Mahkemesi'nde (UCM) yarglanabilir. Nihayetinde bu konuda birtakm giriimler de gerekleti. nk sz konusu din adamlar belli bir hiyerari ierisinde yer alyorlar ve stlerinde idari ve hukuki bir denetim sistematii var. Dolaysyla ilgili vakalarda su varsa, o halde st idari, mlki amirin ihmali de var rlandada 2011 ylnda kiliselerde yaanan tacizler ile ilgili kapsaml raporlar yaynland. Raporlar ok byk fkeye neden oldu. Papa 16. Benediktus ocuk tacizcisi papazlar tvbe etmeye ve ocuklarn ailelerini de kilise ile barmaya ard. Bunun ardndan rlanda Babakan Enda Kenny, Vatikan'n taciz soruturmalarnn yrtlmesine engel olmaya altn ve kendi gcn, itibarn korumak iin ocuklara tecavz ve ikence edilmesini hafife aldn aklad. Katolik Kilisesinin sadece 2011-2012 dneminde 8.500 civarnda cinsel taciz ve cinsel saldr ikyeti ald bildiriliyor. Sz konusu mracaatlardan %60 kurbanlara ait Elbette her kurban ve ailesi dorudan harekete gemeye cesaret edememi olabilir. Bu ned enle gerek rakamlarn ve tahminlerinin henz mmkn olduu bir aamaya gelemedik. Bu rakamlar Kilisenin kurduu bir ar merkezinin kaytlar ile ilgili resmi aklamada yer alan verilerden derlendi. Ama 2012 ylnn so nunda Kilise ilgi olmad iin ar merkezini kapatt. Aslnda 2011 -2012 dnemindeki 8.500 arama, grme ve saire ar merkezinin srdrlmesinde fayda olduuna iaret ediyor. Byk olaslkla ar merkezi bu neden de gz nnde tutularak kapatlm olabilir. Kilise by le bir karar vererek aslnda gzlerini kapatt, olup biteni grmezlik gelmeyi tercih etti. Bu tercih yeni deildi. Kilise bu tutumuyla duruunu deitirmeyeceini gsteriyordu. Nitekim 2010 ylnda Belikada bir komisyon 1950-1980 dnemini kapsayan bir aratrma yapt. Aratrmaya gre Katolik din adamlarnn saldrgan taraf olarak yer ald ocuklara ynelik yzlerce tecavz, cinsel saldr ve cinsel istismar vakas tespit edildi. Kurbanlarn says 786 idi. Kurbanlardan 13 intihar etmi. Ayn durum Polonya iin de geerli. Ekke Overneck isimli Hollandal yazar Korkun adl kitabnda, Katolik din adamlarnn istismar ettii Polonyal ocuklarn saysn binlerce sz ile ifade ediyor. Ocak 2013 Papa 16. Benediktusun ocuk istismar, tecavz dosyalar ve papazlarn cinsel saldrlar konusunda oka haber ve rapor okuduu bir dnem oldu. John Jay Raporuna gre, ABDde Katolik Kilisesinde 1950-2002 yllarn kapsayan zaman diliminde 10.667 vaka tespit edildi. Almanyada 2010 ylnda Katolik Kilisesinde 300 vaka kaydedildi. Bapiskopos Silvano Tomasinin Birlemi Milletler nsan Haklar Komisyonuna verdii ifadeye gre, son elli ylda Katolik din adamlarnn %1,5 ila %5i cinsel sulara bulat. Vakalarn %80 ila %90nda kurba n erkek ve 11-17 ya grubunda. ABDde Katolik Kilisesi binlerce kurbana bugne kadar 2,6 milyar USD tazminat dedi. rlandada din adamlarnn cinsel saldrlar nedeniyle yaklak 14.000 kii ortalama 100.000 EUR tazminat kazand. rlandada denen tazminatlarn toplam 2,1 milyar EURu at. Bu konu ile ilgili srekli yeni bilgiler ortaya kyor. Bu srecin devam Vatikan iin ok dramatik sonulara yol aabilir. nk dnya kamuoyu Papalk iin ilk defa bu derecede ve hi olmad kadar fkeli. Papa 16. Benediktus bu nedenlerden biri veya dieri nedeniyle koltuundan ve apkasndan vazgemi olabilir. Ama her durumda bundan sonras ok daha da renkli olacak

THE EURO CRISIS WILL GROW

20 03 2013

The horse meat scandal is about to occupy the whole of the European agenda. Where there is space left over from the horse meat scandal, one can find talk of the Euro crisis. It seems that if the horse meat scandal does not die down soon, Europeans will come to think that the only problem they face has to do with food safety. If only that were the truth. As 2012 came to an end many academics and experts thought that this might be the last ha ppy New Years Eve. Developments afoot since the end of 2012 show that this was not an overly pessimistic outlook. It is not nice to be eating horses meat, especially if you think it is something else. But the Euro crisis is no less important. Having had horses meat for Christmas, thinking it was something else is bad. The Euro crisis is worse. The fourth and last quarter of 2012 was a poor one for the economy. The Eurozone economy was 3 percent smaller in the last quarter of 2012 compared to its pre-crisis peak. The Italian economy is not doing well. As the Italian public opinion is taken up with speculation regarding the comings and goings of the Bunga Bunga King, the Italian GDP is in marked decline. Risk in Spain The Spanish public is horrified that the countrys GDP has contracted by 7.6 percent compared its pre-crisis height. The unemployment figure of 22.6 percent is not found believable by many. As the cake has grown smaller, fewer consider themselves to be Spanish. Those who identify themselves as Basque, Catalan, Castilian or Aragons is on the rise. Spains political integrity faces the greatest threat ever. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is trying to keep up the peoples belief in the solution efforts. According to Prime Min ister Rajoy, the Spanish economy is doing well. The markets have increased confidence in Spain. Those who believed that Spain would go bankrupt no longer entertain such opinions. The Prime Minister thinks that the economy is recovering. There are tangible signs: the budget deficit has fallen, the banks are clean, exports have grown, investor fears have been allayed. Rajoys statements fall far below the mark when it com es to satisfying the people. The people want answers to the corruption claims concerning those politicians who hold their future in their hands. Furthermore, the people do not understand why the crisis caused by the rich had to be paid off to a great extent by the rest of the populace. Greece in throes of chaos The hellish climate in Greece continues. Unemployment figures are beyond all credibility. The countrys economy has weakened to the extent that figures and statistics have lost validity. The optimism displayed by French President Franois Hollande when he visited Athen s and said we have won the first battle and the Eurozone is no longer in crisis is still to manifest tangibly. Not a month passes without some European Union official declaring the crisis to be over. The media is full of optimism. The facts remain unchanged, however. General strikes come one after another in Greece. Schools have been shut down once more. Public buildings were under occupations. Only emergency services remained working in the hospitals. Unemployment has broken its all time record and risen to 26 percent. The people live in misery. There is an important detail here: the Greek people who have been reduced to misery with general strikes and demonstrations. The latest general strike once more coincided with the visit of credit agency representatives who have been lending to Greece as part of the recovery package. As the people clashed with the police in the demonstrations, the NGOs which they support are manoeuvring in Athens for a better political position. The government is enjoying the spectacle and while negotiating with the Troika representatives, it points at the street protests and demonstrations. According to finance minister Yannis Stournaras the difficult days have come to an end. An economy which has gone down due to debt, billions borrowed and yet to be paid back, billions which have been scrapped and will not have to be paid back, millions of people out of work... It is not clear what Minister Stournaras means by saying that the difficult days are over. The Greek government has raised taxes. It has slashed public spending. It also cut worker and retiree pay and pensions. The country is undergoing a social explosion. The next ten generations in Greece have lost their future. The policies followed by Athens have left the country in the mire. The insistence on those same policies has made life unbearable for lower and middle income groups. The people in Greece are poorer each day and the economy seems incapable of overcoming the recession. The impasse has reached such proportions that twenty general strikes which have been held in Greece over the last three years amount to nothing. Should the need be felt, elections will be held until a desirable outcome has been attained, as was done in 2012. What will happen in the near future? According to up to date data, Germany is the country in the best position. But that the German economy should have grown by 1.4 percent since the beginning of the crisis is no consolation. The low rate of growth over such a long period shows that the crisis has had a severe impact, although no one admits it. Germany, which is the engine and lifeline of the European economy is undergoing a difficult time. Merkel, who has gained quite a reputation in Europe since the beginning of the crisis is unhappy at the economic decline in those markets to which her country exports. Credits rating agency Fitch has been claiming that the great danger in the Eurozone has been overcome. That Fitch, or any o ther agency should make such a statement implies that the markets have calmed down. In other words, the conjecture shaped according to market preferences is taken to be doing well. credit ratings agencies today have the power to make or break countries. If they so wish, credit ratings agencies may ignore a crisis. The same agencies may declare a crisis to be the case without reason, to meet the speculative needs of market actors.

The global financial crisis had begun long before 2007. But it was denied because it was too big to be admitted and because the US financial system was too big to go down. Later, the crisis was declared over at every juncture and it was claimed that the austerity measures were the only way the crisis could be overcome. We are now in 2013 and the crisis continues unabated. The Eurozone, which could not salvage Greece with its GDP of USD 300 billion in 2010, is itself on the critical threshold. The GDP of the European Union is worth USD 16.3 trillion. To compare: the worlds GDP is USD 61 trillion and the USAs GDP is USD 14.6 trill ion. Those who had previously argued there was no crisis have declared there to be a crisis upon profitability of a crisis increasing. This farce was continued for six years by declaring the crisis to be over imminently. Now things are so bad that it is risky to admit there is a crisis and weight has shifted to declaring it to be over. While the whole of Europe is in the grip of economic stagnation credit ratings agency Fitch finds it in itself to declare that the danger in the Eurozone has fallen because countries like Spain and Italy find it easier to obtain credit at manageable terms and because the European Central Bank has a strategy in place to buy government bonds when necessary. Fitch has declared that t he crisis in Europe will be over by 2015. If the contraction of the last 26-27 months is overlooked or if it is assumed that Greece miraculously makes up for this contraction, the Greek GDP amounts to USD 300 billion. It is expected that Greece will balance its budget in 2022, that is in nine or ten years time. T he target for 2012 is not that Greece will be in the black or reduce its budget deficit but that it will make its budget manageable. In other words, the most optimistic predictions for Greece have it paying back its debt in 2022. If Greece is to come around in ten years time according to the most optimistic predictions, how will the rest of Europe, 55 times bigger than the Greek economy recover itself in a couple of years? In a system in which all economies are intertwined, how will other economies recover while one continues to go down? If everything is fine as the banks claim, why have European leaders decided on a budget cut recently, for the first time in the Euro pean Unions history? If the bad days are over and done with, why was this savings decision celebrated like a major victory? Has no one had the slightest suspicion? Liberalism? Where? Whatever anyone may say or any report may contain, being cautious ought to be viewed as the best guarantee. Although it is claimed that liberalism is the spirit of the present system, everyone and everything is under pressure. Interests are under pressure. Financial markets are under pressure. The same is true of bankruptcies, consumers and governments. Those who just yesterday opposed state intervention in the name of liberalism are today asking the state to capitalise banks and pay bonuses to their executives in the name of liberalism. The markets do not decide who goes bankrupt and who does not, although it seems complicated. Profits should be profits and losses ought to be losses. Prices, output and consumption should have been shaped by the equilibrium of demand and supply. This would have been the short way of measuring market preference. But market preferences are no longer demonstrated by economic criteria such as supply, demand, prices, output and consumption. Instead, the determinant factors are the morality of bank executive boards and the extent to which a rehabilitation of the unbridled ambition of investors who gamble on the international markets is possible. To put it openly greed, maximalism and Machiavellianism continue to be the pillar which support the system that has pushed millions into poverty and misery. Being optimistic nevertheless In the last quarter of 2012, OECD economies have contracted by 0.2 percent. In other words, OECD economies have entered a contraction trend for the first time since 2009. In this context the Eurozone, the UK and Japan have contracted. Although there is optimism over the USA, there has been no growth. The OECD consists of major developed economies and a number of developing economies.

AVRO KRZ DAHA DA BYYECEK

27 02 2013

Avrupallar iin at eti skandal btn gndemi igal etmek zere. Avrupada at etinden geriye kalan yerde Avro krizi konuuluyor. yle grnyor ki, Avrupa kamuoyu at eti skandal bu tempoda devam ederse, bir sre sonra tek sorunun gda gvenlii olduunu dnmeye balayacak Ama keke gerekler gerekten yle olsayd 2012 yl biterken pek ok akademisyen ve uzman bunun son mutlu ylba olabileceini dnyorlard. 2012 ylnn son eyreinden bu yana devam eden gelimeler onlarn haksz olmadn gsteriyor. Elbette at eti yemek iyi bir ey deil, zellikle onun baka bir ey olduunu dnyorsanz. Ama Avro krizi de daha az nemli deil. Noelde belki baka ey zannederek at eti yemi olmak da kt. Fakat bundan daha kts, Avro krizi 2012 ylnn drdnc ve son eyrei ekonomi iin kt geti. Avro Blgesi getiimiz yln son aynda kriz ncesindeki zirve noktasndan %3 daha dk kaydedildi. talya ekonomisi de iyi durumda deil. talyan kamuoyu Bunga Bunga Kralnn gidileri ve gelileri arasnda gnlk speklatif haberlerle yorulurken, talya'nn gayri safi yurt ii haslas azalyor. spanyada Risk Hala Var spanyada da kamuoyu lke ekonomisinin kriz ncesi dneme oranla %7,6 kldn dehet duyarak izliyor. %22,6 isizlik rakam pek ok spanyol iin inandrc deil. Pasta kld iin kendisini spanyol kabul edenlerin de durumu pek iyi deil. nk pasta dilimleri inceldike

kendisini Bask, Katalan, Kastilyal veya Aragonlu sayanlar da art gzlemleniyor. spanyann siyasi btnl hi olmad kadar byk bir teh like altnda... spanya Babakan Mariano Rajoy halkn moralini ve zm abalarna inancn gl tutmaya alyor. Babakan Rajoya gre, spanya ekonomisi iyi yolda. Piyasalarn spanyaya gveni artt. Daha nce spanyann batacana inananlar, artk yle dnmyorlar. Babakana gre ekonomi iyileiyor. Hatta bunun somut iaretleri de grlyor; Bte a azald. Bankalar temizlendi. hracat artt. Yatrmclarn kayglar da azald. Elbette Rajoyun szleri halk tatmin etmekten uzak. Halk her eyden nce kendisini ve geleceini teslim ettii yneticiler hakkndaki yolsuzluk iddialarnn sonucunda neler olacan merak ediyor. Ayrca elbette hala neden en zenginlerin yol at krizde, faturay halkn geriye kalan byk ounluunun demesi gerektiini de anlamyor. Yunanistan Kaos Girdabnda Yunanistanda cehennem iklimi devam ediyor. sizlik rakamlar giderek inandrcln yitiriyor. lke ekonomisi o kadar zayflad ki, artk saylarn ve istatistik verilerinin geerlilii de hzla azalyor. Fransa Cumhurbakan Franois Hollande'n Atinay ziyaret ettii zaman kulland ilk sava kazandk ve Avro Blgesi artk krizde deil szlerindeki iyimserlik henz gerek anlamda hayata gemedi. Aslnda her ay Avrupa Birlii yetkilileri kriz bitti aklamalar yapyorlar. Medya ile topluma devaml iyimserlik pompalanyor. Ama yine de gerekler deimiyor. Yunanistanda genel grevler birbirini kovalyor. lkede yine okullar kapal kald. Kamu binalar da genel grevde ayn durumdayd. Yunanistan da yine hastanelerde sadece acil servisler ald. lkede isizlik btn zamanlarn rekorunu krd ve %26y at. Halk ac ekerek yayor. Bu arada bir detay var ve ok nemli. Yunanistanda sefil haldeki halk genel grevlerle ve gsterilerle hakkn aryor. Ama yine son genel grev de her nedense daha ncekiler gibi Yunanistan'a kurtarma yardm kapsamnda kredi salayan kurulularn temsilcilerinin Atina'ya yapacaklar ziyaretinin ncesine denk geldi. Halk sokak gsterilerinde polisten dayak yerken, destekledikleri sivil toplum kurulular da Atinada siyasette daha iyi bir pozisyonun mcadelesini yapyor. Hkmet ise bu durumun tadn karyor ve Troyka temsilcileri ile pazarlk ederken, hep ayn rastlant ile denk gelen sokak gsterilerine ve grevlere dikkat ekiyorlar Maliye Bakan Yannis Stournarasa gre zor gnler sona erdi. Borlar yznden batan ekonomi Alnan ve geri denmeyenler milyarlar Silinen milyarlar denmeyecek milyarlar Milyonlarca isiz Bakan Stournarasn neye gre zor gnler bitti dedii ok ak deil. Ama Yunanistanda hkmet vergileri artrd. Ayrca kamu harcamalarn azaltt. Bununla da yetinmedi alanlarn ve emeklilerin maa ve cretlerini drd. lkede sosyal patlama yaanyor. Yunanistanda gelecek en az on nesil geleceini kaybetti. Atinann izledii politikalar lkeyi derin bir batakla drd. Ayn politikalarda srdrlen srar alt ve orta snfn hayatn ekilmez hale getirdi. Gn getikte Yunanistanda halk yoksullayor ve ekonominin resesyonu amas neredeyse imknsz hale geliyor. Halkn ne dedii, ne istedii ve ne istemedii hi kimsenin umurunda deil. Rezalet o kadar yksek bir noktaya ulat ki, Yunanistanda ylda yaplan yirmiden fazla genel grev de bir ey deitirmiyor. Tpk gerek grlrse 2012de yapld gibi, seimlerin uygun bir sonu iin yenilenmesi gibi Yakn Gelecekte Ne Olur? u anda son gncel verilere gre, Almanya halen durumu en iyi olan lke. Ama Almanya'nn gayri safi yurt ii hslasnn krizin patlamasndan ncesindeki zirve noktasna gre %1,4 daha fazla olmas hi kimse iin teselli deil. nk uzun srede kk byme, aslnda henz itiraf edilmese de krizin ok ar etkiledii anlamna geliyor. Avrupann lokomotifi, Avro Blgesinin can simidi Almanyada kt gnler yayor. Krizle beraber Avrupada adeta azize gibi grlen Merkel de lkesinin ihracat yapt pazarlardak i ekonomik gerileme nedeniyle ok mutsuz. Kredi derecelendirme kuruluu Fitch de Avro Blgesi iin byk tehlikenin atlatldn iddia ediyor. Fitchin veya herhang i bir kredi derecelendirme kuruluunun bu dnceyi aklamas piyasalarn yatt anlamna geliyor. Dier bir deyile; piyasalarn tercihlerine gre tanmlanan konjonktr iyi yolda kabul ediliyor. Kredi derecelendirme kurulular bugn diledikleri lkeyi batrp, diledikler i lkeyi kurtaracak gce sahipler. Kredi derecelendirme kurulular arzu ederlerse bir krizi grmezlikten gelebilirler ve yok sayabilirler. Ayn kredi derecelendirme kurulular ortada bir sebep yokken, tamamen piyasa aktrlerinin speklatif atak ihtiyalar sebebiyle bir krizin baladn ilan edebil irler. Nitekim kresel mali kriz gerekte 2007den ok nce balad. Ama var olduu kabul edilmek iin byk olduu iin ve ABDde finansal si stem batmak iin fazla byk olduu iin uzun sre inkar edildi. Ondan sonra da hemen her frsatta krizin bitmesine ok az kald ilan edildi ve yine ayn ekilde uygulanan tasarruf tedbirlerinin krizin almas iin tek geerli yol olduu savunuldu. Bu artlar altnda 2013 ylna geldik ve kriz devam ediyor. stelik gayri safi yurt ii hslas 2010 ylna ait rakamlara gre 300 milyar USD civarnda olan Yunanistan dze karamayan Avro Blgesinin kendisi kritik eikte duruyor. Avrupa Birliinin gayri safi yurt ii hslas 16,3 trilyon USD ayet kyaslama yapmak ve bu rakamlar daha iyi anlamak iin rnek gerekiyorsa; Dnyadaki toplam gayri safi yurt ii hsla 61 trilyon USD ve ABDnin gayri safi yurt ii hslas da 14,6 trilyon USD! Daha nce kriz yok diye gr belirten kesimler bir sre sonra karlln kriz artlarnda artmas zerine kriz var ded iler. Bunun devamnda ise kriz bitiyor denilerek, alt yldr devam eden srecin ve artlarn devamll saland. imdi ise durum o kadar kt bir hale geldi ki, kriz var demek de riskli hale geldi ve o nedenle kriz bitiyor iyimserlii pompalanmaya baland. Btn Avrupa topyekn ekonomik duraanln penesinde iken kredi derecelendirme kuruluu Fitch, spanya ve talya gibi lkelerin elverili artlarla kredi bulmas kolaylat iin ve Avrupa Merkez Bankasnn gerektiinde devlet tahvili alma stratejisi olduu iin Avro Blgesinin dalma tehlikesinin azaldn ilan etti. Fitch bu noktadan hareketle krizin 2015 ylna kadar sona ereceini iddia ediyor. Yunanistann btn gayri safi yurt ii hslas son 26-27 aylk klmeleri de saymazsak, Yunanistann mucize gerekletirip bir gecede son 2627 aylk kn toparladn varsayarsak, Yunanistan -zeytin aalar da dhil- 300 milyar USD eder. Yarsn pein masaya koyan hepsini alr. Buna ramen Yunanistann bte dengesini 2022 ylnda -yani bugnden 9-10 yl sonra- salamas bekleniyor. Ltfen dikkat; 2022 yl iin ngrlen hedef Yunanistann kara gemesi veya bte an azaltmas deil, btesini srdrlebilir hale getirmesi Baka bir deyile Yunanistan iin 2022 ylna ilikin ngrlen en iyimser hedef, bor demeye balayacak hale gelmesi Yunanistan bile en erken -en iyimser-stratejik ngryle on yl sonra tek bana nefes almaya balayacaksa, onun 55 kat byklkteki Avrupa nasl 1,5-2 ylda krizle vedalaacak? stne stlk btn ekonomilerin i ie getii bir sistemde, birisi dzelmez iken, hatta batmaya devam ederken, dierleri nasl dzelecek? Bankalarn iddia ettii gibi her ey yolunda ise, neden Avrupal liderler ksa bir sre nce, Avrupa Birliinin tarihinde il k kez btede kesintiye gitti? Zor gnler geti, gitti ve bitti ise, neden bu kesinti ngren bte plan zerinde zorla salanan anlama adeta bir meydan savanda kazanlm bir zafer gibi kutland? Hi kimse mi kukulanmad? Liberalizm mi? Nerede? O nedenle kim ne derse desin, hangi rapor ve hangi uzman neyi sylerse sylesin, temkinli olmak en byk gvence olarak kabul edilmeli. Nihayetinde mevcut srecin ruhunda liberalizm yer ald iddia edilse de, her eyin ve herkesin zerinde bask var. Faizler basklanyor. Mali piyasalar bask altnda tutuluyor. Ayn durum iflaslar iin de geerli, tketiciler iin de geerli, hkmetler iin de geer li. Dne kadar devletin

mdahalesine liberalizm adna kar kanlar, bugn liberalizm adna devletin iflas eden bank alara sermaye ve yneticilerine ikramiye vermesini savunuyorlar. Dolaysyla kimin iflas edeceine veya etmeyeceine piyasalar karar veriyor. Biraz karmak gibi grnse de aslnda hi de yle deil. Aslnda zararn zarar ve karn da kar anlamna gelmesi gerekirdi. Arz ve talep arasndaki iliki fiyat, retimi ve hatta tketimi biimlendirebilirdi. Buna da ksa piyasalarn tercihi de baklabilirdi. Ama bunun yerine, piyasalarn kanaatinin ne olduuna arz, talep, fiyat, retim veya tketim gibi iktisat biliminin temel kavramlar karar vermiyorlar. Bunun yerine artk belirleyici etkenler bankalarn ynetim kurulu yelerinin ahlak, mali piyasalarda adeta at yar oynar gibi ktlar ve irketleri alp satan yatrmclarn ihtirasnn ve yok edici kazanma tutkusunun ne kadar rehabilite edilmeye msait olduu ile ilgili Daha ak bir deyile, krize yol aan, milyonlar mutsuzlua ve sefalete srkleyen cehennem ikliminin kurucusu olan agzl lk, maksimalizm ve Makyavelizm sacayaklarna dayanan sistem sryor. Yine de iyimser olmak Ekonomik birlii ve Kalknma rgt (OECD) ekonomileri 2012 ylnn son eyreinde %0,2 kld. Dier bir deyile OECD eko nomileri 2009 ylndan sonra yeniden klme srecine girdi. Bu kapsamda Avro Blgesi de kld, Japonya ve ngiltere de kld. ABD'de de iyimserlik olsa da, byme yok. Merakls iin ksa bir teknik bilgi vermek lazmsa, OECD' gelimi lkelerin tamamndan ve birka gelimekte olan lkeden meydana geliyor.

LESSONS TO BE LEARNED FROM THE ITALIAN ELECTIONS

20 03 2013

The election results in Italy did not please Europe The elections which were long awaited in suspense have been held. The result have been educational. The Italian people have sent a message to all concerned with these elections. It is not clear who will accept these messages and who will not. But Italy has done what it could. The third largest economy of the Eurozone is going through a difficult time with its debt of approximately EUR 2 trillion. To give a summary of the election results we should note that Italy has a two chamber parliamentary system, consisting of the lower chamber and the senate. In the Senate Berlusconis centre right bloc got 116 seats while Bersanis centre left bloc got 113, Brillos Fiv e Star party got 54 and Montis left bloc got 18 seats. In the lower house Bersanis centre left bloc won 340 seats, Berlusconis centre right bloc won 124, Grillos Five Star Party won 108 and Montis left bloc won 45 seats. In Italy the government has to hold a majority in both houses. Given this outlook some facts emerge, just like a light in the dark. The Italian people have conveyed some important messages with the votes they cast in this election. This is very significant. For Italian society, just like any other in the 21st century is one that is rendered stupid by the media. It is also a society which has been conditioned to consume more and not ask any questions, like force fed battery hens. Therefore, that Italian society should display certain reflexes, despite all the obstacles in the way is very important. Italian society still functions within its own country and still makes an effort to be effective in government. In other words, Italians are still struggling to preserve and develop democracy as a guarantee of the system in their country. The end of real politics? the Italian elections have shown that the people in Italy do not care for real politics. In this respect its attitude parallels that of the Greek people. Real politics is denotes the idea that there is a definite split between politics and ethics and that state or government politics should be completely stripped of moral concerns and designed solely in accordance with the requirements of power and measured solely by their success. In summary, real politics denotes the idea that once should try to accomplish ones aims in line with prevailing circumstances without ad hering to any ideals or theories. Real politics can thus be defined as politics based on calculations of power and national interest. This concept essentially denotes that power shapes politics. The powerful determine the political field. Political actors should be aware of this fact and act accordingly. In other words policies are formed and implemented not according to the values and priorities of society but according to daily interests and necessity. For those who prefer real politics, morality, honour and dignity are just metaphysical concepts. In a period of global financial crisis and under the circumstances of the debt crisis in Europe, those countries which are in financial difficulties have to accept the rules which are imposed on them. The periodic circumstances and necessities require that principles be set to one side and one get busy with paying back debt instead of engaging in metaphysics. The demands and the pleasure of institutions such as the European Central Bank, the Eurozone, the IMF comes before metaphysical concepts and national interests. In time the new necessities come to replace the old ideas. In the future meeting the said demands and the directive of the mentioned organisations may become a national duty, count for national pride and replace national policy. Genetic Transfers for Mutation Although such a mutation may be refused by society, then a transfer of genes may be considered. For example, replacing Papandreou with Samaras in Greece or replacing Berlusconi with Monti in Italy is a transfer of genes which will complete the mutation. When this transfer is carried out, the process of mutation speeds up. This may be given a different and more likeable name. It may be called a reform process, or restructuring or something else. When it applies to the Middle east it may be called liberation, democratisation or generally the Arab Spring. If the mutation is taking place on the European continent, other labels may be found. Market anxiety The sum of all these concepts, facts and processes determines the faith of a country. According to these criteria the future of the country and its younger generations are shaped. In other words the entire system and functioning of a country comes to work for the peace of mind of the markets.

When will the markets be anxious? What will please the markets instead of scaring them? Are the markets never wrong? Do they never make bad preferences? If the markets always go for the best, the true and the beneficial and determine developments in this regard, then why are there crises? By markets it is meant the financial markets only. They are upset or happy depending on their p rofitability. This is all that matters. If banks, insurance firms and other financial institutions can make the ambitiously high profits they are always chasing, the markets are happy. If high profitability for the financial sector is not the case, then the markets are anxious. Therefore, whoever promises high profits to banks which are blind to everything but profit, which count money in their sleep and which do not care if everyone else has to pay for their profits, they will win market confidence. This has been seen in Europe since 2007, the year in which the crisis began. When market preferences trump the peoples preferences, technocrats come before politicians. As appointed, rather than electe d officials, technocrats have different notions and a different worldview. Technocratic administrations do not care about the electorate, to which they are not accountable and care for those who appointed them. Some political scientists see the technocratic governments which come to power in times of crisis as the last step before fascism. This is not unfair. Technocratic government and technocratic methods of government may in time come to be seen as normal and ordinary. As a result of globalisation and neo-liberalism, every decision is now made by the markets. But the Italian elections have shown that the Italian voters are not on board with this. Italians have not voted with stability concerns, fear of crisis or market anxiety when they went to the booths. Instead they voted for those parties which they wanted to govern them and with the promised policies of which they agreed. Italians did not sell their hopes cheap to buy expensive fear in instalments. Therefore, once the election results were out the European press started reporting on the concerns of European markets and politicians over a possible government crisis in Italy. France and Germany called on Rome to continue with the reforms straight after the election. French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said that the Italian election result presented problems. Madrid described the Italian election as a leap which reached nowhere. Spanish Foreign Minister Garcia Margallo said this is not good news for Italy or for Europe. The new conditions imposed by the Italian electorate demands that the new government in Italy be a collation of left and right parties. But the election shows that the Italian electorate does not want another Monti. The low amount of votes and seats Monti has won is a document to this effect. Monti, who took office as tough appointed by the European Union could only win 10 percent of the vote. The protest movement Five Stars under the leadership of comedian Beppe Grillo won 25 percent of the vote. Italians, just like Greeks want the politicians to give something back in exchange for the votes they got. Italians want the politicians they chose to implement the policies they want. For this reason the Italian people do not want to pay back the interest, the capital or the fine on the debts they never took out. The Italian electorate has demonstrated in this election that it does not want the austerity measures imposed by the European Union. The Italian voters do not want politicians who want to impose these austerity measures. A government will be formed in Italy. The possibility of there being no agreement over a new cabinet is very slight. European institutions will be involved in this process. They will observe and influence every move. No one will abandon Italy to its fate. No one would want the European Union to experience fears of collapse due to Italy. The future of the Eurozone will likewise be held in mind. What if no one believes them? The anxiety Italian elections have caused in Europe is therefore of another order than the inability of government being formed or the fall of the great European ideal. As Greece is relatively small, the attitude of Greek public opinion does not raise serious interest in Europe. The situation of the small Greek economy does cause anger, but everyone knows that Greece is not big enough to take Europe down with it. The very strong reaction the Greek people have shown to austerity measures and other practices of the government, the demonstrations, the strikes have not caused Europe wide concern. But Italy is different. The electoral attitude in the Italian elections may set an example for coming elections around the European Union. From now on, greater numbers of voters may act more reactively in Europe. Credit ratings agencies, the European Central Bank, the Council of Europe, the European Commission and the IMF may have less influence on voter preferences. In more countries, greater numbers of voters may elect their own politicians instead of technocrats appointed by the markets. More politicians may feel themselves to be accountable to the voters, rather than the markets. The next step will be an authority crisis within the European Union. In the new process started with German and French initiative, European Union member states have agreed to joint fiscal policy, joint budgetary policy and shared budgetary regulation. In other words the debt crisis has resulted in a further transfer of sovereignty from member states to Brussels. This has nothing to do with the reasons for the crisis or the inability to stop it. But these steps were taken ostensibly to overcome the crisis. But if a party comes to power in a country with electorate support instead of market preference, its members will be more afraid of the electorate than of the markets. In other words, the crisis period in the European Union may see more national administrations following more national policies. A crisis can be a good thing There might be some who see in all of this a recipe for crisis and others who wish for a crisis. It is certain that the development will cause consternation for Brussels and the markets. But one should also try and look at the other side of the coin. A crisis can sometimes have good consequences. For if bankruptcy and collapse are bad for Italy, they are also bad for the European Union and the Eurozone. Therefore, based on the rules of mutual interdependency and that of connected containers, it is relatively easy for Italy to insist on its own choice of government against Europe. For if the real issue is avoiding chaos in Italy, Rome can present its choices as the only way to avoid chaos. The attitude of the Italian electorate and the results of the election have shown this to be possible. That Italians were not happy with the German shadow over Europe was known before the elections. Italians were not concerned with a fall in the stock exchange index or the fluctuations of the bond market as they cast their votes. Perhaps they had been concerned with these things before. Perhaps they had accepted the strange arrival of Monti and his Brussels focused, market centred policies out of fear. If they had not accepted them the markets would have been concerned and stability would have been endangered. Now the markets really are concerned and instability has set in. The European Union will spend 2013 n economic stagnation. The European Union will continue to fight stagnation throughout the year. The worst thing which may happen for the European Union is a worsening of the economic situation of Spain and Italy. The European Union may not be able to lift this burden. Neither stability mechanisms nor action plans can solve these issues. It is highly improbable that the European Union will be able to control developments after suffering a mishap in 2013. Brussels is aware of this, but so are Italian voters. Differences between Italy and Greece

Italian voters acted more sensibly compared to Greek voters. They did not set out on repeated demonstrations and strikes. There have been demonstrations in Italy. The people were upset. Students were angry. Workers and pensioners were taken aback. But the events in Greece did not unfold in Italy. The Italian voters acted wisely and displayed the correct reaction at the appropriate time. It is probable that Italy will not exit its financial crisis for another few years. Fears and concerns will continue for Italians. However the Italians may reap the benefits of the different reaction they displayed towards the same factors as the Greeks.

TALYA SEMLERNDEN IKAN DERSLER

06 03 2013

talyada yaplan seimlerden kan sonular Avrupay memnun etmedi Uzun sredir ve byk gerginlikle beklenen seimler sonuland. Seim sonular herkes iin retici oldu. talya halk bu se imlerde herkese mesajlarn iletti. Elbette bu mesajlar kimin kabul edecei, kimin kabul etmeyecei belli deil. Ama talya elinden geleni yapt. talya Avro Blgesinin nc byk ekonomisi ve 2 trilyon EUR civarndaki borcuyla ok zor bir dnemden geiyor. En baka ksaca seim sonularna -saysal verilere- deinmekte fayda var; talyada iki meclisli sistem var. Bunlar alt mec lis ve senato. Alt mecliste Berlusconi'nin merkez sa bloku 116, Bersani'nin merkez sol bloku 113, Grillo'nun Be Yldz partisi 54 ve Monti'nin sol bloku 18 sandalye kazand. Senatoda da benzer bir tablo ortaya kt. Bersani'nin merkez sol bloku 340, Berlusconi'nin merkez sa bloku 124, Grillo'nun Be Yldz partisi 108 ve Monti'nin sol bloku 45 sandalyenin hkimi oldu. talya'da hkmet olabilmek iin her iki meclisi de kontrol ed ebilmek gerekiyor. Bu tabloya bakldnda baz gerekler kendiliinden ortaya kyor, tpk karanlktaki bir kaplann gzleri gibi grlyor. talyan halk bu seimlerde verdii oylarla ok nemli birtakm durum tespitleri yaptn ispat etti. Bu durum gerekten ok, ama ok nemli... nk t alyan toplumu 21. Asrdaki hemen her toplum gibi bir toplum. Akas medya tarafndan aptallatrlan bir toplum! Ayrca talyan toplumu ve tpk endstriyel tavuk eti tesislerindeki kmeslerde daha fazla yiyip semirmeye zorlanan tavuklar gibi, daha ok tketmeye ve soru sormamaya artlandrlan bir toplum. Dolaysyla talyan toplumunun btn bu zorluklara ramen baz refleksleri ortaya koymas ok deerli... talyan toplumu kend isini, kendi lkesinde halen ilevsel tutuyor ve halen lkenin ynetiminde etkili olmak iin gayret gsteriyor. Bir baka deyile talyanlar lkelerinde demokrasinin muhafaza edilmesi ve sistemin gvencesi olarak gelitirilmesi iin bir mcadele veriyorlar. Reel Politikann Sonu Mu Geliyor? talya seimleri unu gsterdi; talyada halk reel politikay nemsemiyor. Bu bakmdan Yunan halk ile paralel bir tutum sergiledii de sylenebilir.Siyaset ile ahlak arasna kesin bir ayrm olduu varsaymna dayanarak, hkmet yahut devlet politikalarn ahlaki kayglardan arndrarak siyasal kararlarn gcn gereklerine gre ayarlanmas gerektiini ve yegne lnn baar olduunu ileri sren yaklam. Reel politika ksa bir tanmlamaya gre, herhangi bir ideale veya kurama balanmakszn, mevcut gereklere uygun ekilde amalarn gerekletirmeye almak anlamn tar. Dolaysyla reel politika iin g hesaplar ve ulusal karlar zerine kurulu politika demek de dorudur. Esas olarak bu kavramn anlatt, hlihazrdaki siyasetlerin g temelinde ekillendiidir. Yani gl olann siyaseti belirlediidir. Bu noktadan hareketle siyasi aktrler bu gerekliin farkndadr ve ona gre davranrlar. Baka bir deyile toplumun ve lkenin temel deer yarglar nceliklerine gre deil, gnlk karlara ve zorunluluklara gre siyaset retirler ve uygularlar. nk reel politikay tercih edenler iin ahlak, namus, eref ve haysiyet gibi mefhumlar sadece birer metafizik kavramdr. Kresel mali kriz dneminde ve Avrupada yaanan borlar krizinin ortaya koyduu yeni dnemsel artlara gre, mali sorun yaa yan lkeler kendilerine dayatlan kurallar kabul etmek zorundadr. nk dnemsel zorluklar ve zorunluluklar ilkeleri bir kenara brakp, metafizikle deil, bor demekle megul olmay gerektirmektedir. Nihayetinde Avrupa Merkez Bankas, Avro Blgesi, Uluslararas Para Fon u ve benzeri btn kurumlarn taleplerini karlamak ve onlarn konforunu temin etmek metafizik kavramlarn ve milli karlarn nne geer. Hatta zamanla onlarn yeni anlam ereveleri haline gelir. Bir sre sonra sz konusu talepleri karlamak, onlarn direktiflerini uygulamak milli dev, milli gurur, milli kar, milli politika ve milli eref haline dnebilir. Mutasyon in Gereken Gen Transferi Bu mutasyon bazen toplum tarafndan ret edilirse, o halde gen transferi sz konusu olabilir. rnein Yunanistanda Papandreunun gnderilip, yerine Samarasn getirilmesi ve talyada Berlusconinin gnderilip, yerine Montinin getirilmesi ite bu ekilde mutasy onu tamamlayacak gen transferidir Sz konusu gen transferi yapldnda, mutasyon srecini hzlandrr. Buna elbette daha baka ve daha sevimli bir adlandrma da uygun grlebilir. rnein reform sreci, yeniden yaplanma veya baka bir deyim de uygun grlebilir. Bu deyim Orta Dou sz konusu olduunda zgrleme, demokratikleme veya genel olarak Arap Bahar adn alabilir. ayet mutasyon Avrupa ktasndaysa buna baka isimler de uygulanabilir. Piyasalarn Tedirginlii Btn bu kavramlarn, olgularn, srelerin ve hepsinin toplam zetle lkenin kaderini bir lte balyor. Bu lte gre lkenin ve gen nesillerin gelecei biimleniyor. Baka bir deyile lkenin btn sistemi ve btn ileyii sadece ve sadece piyasalarn tedirgin edilmemesi hedefine kilitleniyor. Acaba piyasalar ne zaman tedirgin olur? Piyasalar tedirgin deil, tatmin eden ne olabilir? Acaba piyasalar hi yanlmaz m? Hi yanl tercihi olmaz m? Eer piyasalar her zaman doruyu, iyiyi, faydaly dnyorsa ve gelimeleri buna gre tayin ediyorsa, krizler ned en oluyor? Laf aramzda piyasalar denildiinde kast edilen sadece finans piyasalar. Onlar tedirgin veya mutlu klan ise, kar oran. Her e y bundan ibaret Eer bankalar, sigorta irketleri ve dier finans kurulular hrsla hedefledikleri yksek karlara ulaabiliyorlarsa, piyasalar mutlu oluyor. Eer yksek kar hedefi gereklemiyorsa piyasalar tedirgin oluyor. O nedenle her kim gz dnm, gece uykusunda para sayan, kendi kar iin herkese bedel detmek isteyen bankalara daha yksek kar vaat ederse -her kim olursa olsun- piyasalarn gvenini kazanr. yle de olduu Avrupada zellikle 2007 ylnda krizin balamasndan bu yana grlyor.

Piyasalarn tercihi halkn tercihinin nne geerse, teknokratlar da siyasetilerin nne geer. Dolaysyla teknokratlar da seilmi deil, atanm kiiler olarak farkl bir nosyona sahip olur ve baka bir misyonla hayata bakar. Teknokratlar aldklar kararlarda kamuoyunu deil, piyasalar esas alrlar. O nedenle teknokrat ynetimler hesap verecekleri kesim olarak semenleri deil, kendilerini seenleri ya da atayanlar nemserler. nk sz konusu dnemlerde, yani krizlerde, lkelerin ynetimlerini teslim alan teknokrat ynetimleri baz siyaset bilimcileri tarafndan faizm ncesi son aama olarak deerlendirilir. Bu deerlendirme haksz da deildir. Ayrca teknokrat ynetimler ve teknokratik ynetim usulleri zamanla olaan ve makul grlen hale gelebilir. Kresellemenin ve neoliberalizmin sonucunda artk her konuda her karar piyasalar alyor. Ama talya seimleri gsterdi ki , talyan semenler buna kar kyor. Baka bir deyile talyanlar seimlerde istikrar kaygs, kriz korkusu ve piyasa endiesi ile oy kullanmadlar. Bunun yerine, sandk bana gittiklerinde istedikleri ve doru bulduklar partilere oy verdiler talyanlar seimlerde umutlarn peine satp, sonra taksitle ve ok pahalya korku satn almadlar Dolaysyla seimlerin sonular belli olduunda Avrupa basnnn yazd gibi, Avrupa piyasalar ve Avrupal politikaclar talya'da hkmet krizi olasl konusundaki kayglarn aklad. Hatta Fransa ve Almanya seimlerin hemen ardndan Romaya reformlara devam ars yapt. Fransa Maliye Bakan Pierre Moscovici talyan seim sonularnn "sorunlar yarattn" syledi. Madrid de talyan seimlerinin sonularn hi bir yere varmayan bir sray diye tanmlad. spanya Dileri Bakan Garcia Margallo Bu talya iin de Avrupa iin de iyi haber deil" dedi. talyan semenler ortaya koyduu tablo esasen lkede yeni hkmetin sa -sol koalisyonu eklinde biimlenmesini talep ediyor. Ayrca her ne olursa olsun talya seimleri semenlerin asla yeni bir Monti istemediini gsteriyor. yle ki Montinin ald dk oy ve kazanabildii az sayda sandalye, bunun tarihi bir belgesi saylr. Avrupa Birliinin dayatma ile gnderdii ve adeta atama ile ie balatt Monti oylarn sadece %10unu alabildi. Komedyen Beppe Grillo liderliindeki bir protesto hareketi olan Be Yldz bile oylarn %25'ini ald. nk talyanlar da -tpk Yunanlar gibi- siyasetilerin aldklar oyun karln vermelerini istiyorlar. talyanlar setikleri siyasetilerin, setikleri politikalar uygulamalarn talep ediyorlar. Bu nedenle talyan halk almad borcun faizini de, anaparasn da, cezasn da demek istemiyor. talyada semen bu seimlerde somut biimde ortaya koydu ki, Avrupa Birliinin kendisini zorlad tasarruf nlemlerini uygulama k istemiyor. Bundan baka talyan semen sz konusu tasarruf nlemelerini uygulamak isteyen siyasetileri de istemiyor. Muhakkak talyada hkmet kurulur. Kurulmamas olasl yok denecek derecede kk. Bu srece mutlaka Avrupa kurumlar dorudan ve dolayl katlr. Avrupa her adma mahede eder ve etki eder. Nihayetinde talyay hi kimse kaderine terk etmez. talyann byk bir buhrana girmesine hi kimse izin vermez. Hi kimse talya yznden Avrupa Birliinin k korkusu yaamasna da izin vermez. Avro Blgesinin gelecei de ayn derecede gz nnde tutulur. Ya Bir Gn Hi Kimse nanmazsa Dolaysyla talya seimlerinin Avrupada yaratt esas tedirginlik, seimlerin ardndan lkede ynetim kurulamamas veya Byk Avrupa idealinin knn balamas deil, baka bir ey Yunanistan kk olduu iin Yunan kamuoyunun tavr Avrupada ciddi ilgi uyandrmyor. Kk Yunan ekonomisinin ierisinde bulunduu durum elbette fkeye neden oluyor, ama herkes Yunanistann Avrupa gemisini batracak kadar byk bir ta olmadn biliyor. Yunan halknn tasarruf tedbirlerine ve hkmetin dier uygulamalarna gsterdii ok sert tepkiler de, grevler de, gsteriler de Avrupa leinde endieye neden olmuyor. Ama talya baka talyann yapt seimlerde gsterdii tavr, Avrupa Birlii lkelerinde bundan sonra yaplacak seimlerde rnek oluturabi lir. Bundan sonraki seimlerde yal ktada daha fazla semen daha fazla tepkili hareket edebilir. Kredi derecelendirme kurulular da, Avrupa Merkez Bankas da, Avrupa Konseyi de, Avrupa Komisyonu da, Uluslararas Para Fonu da semen tercihlerini daha az etkileyebilir. Daha fazla lkede, daha fazla semen piyasalarn atad teknokratlar yerine, kendi siyasetilerini seebilir. Daha fazla siyaseti o takdirde kendisini piyasalara ve piyasa aktrlerine kar deil, kendi semenine kar sorumlu hissedebilir. Onun bir sonraki adm is e Avrupa Birlii ierisinde balayacak yetki krizi olur. nk Almanya ve Fransann giriimiyle hzlanan yeni srete, Avrupa Birlii yesi lkeler ortak finans politikas, ortak bte politikas ve ortak bte denetimi konusunda uzlatlar. Dier bir deyile borlar krizi Birlik yesi lkelerin milli yetkilerinin bir ksmn daha Brksele teslim etmesi sonucunu dourdu. Aslnda krizin kmasnn da, durdurulamamasnn da bununla hibir ilg isi yoktu. Fakat yine de krizin zm iin bu admlar da atld. Fakat bir lkede bir parti piyasa destei ile deil de, semen destei ile iktidar olursa, o zaman piyasalardan deil, semenden korkar. Baka bir deyile Avrupa Birliinde bu kriz srecinin devamnda giderek daha fazla ve daha youn biimde millileen ve milli siyaset izleyen ynetimler kurulabilir. Kriz Bazen ok yi Olabilir phesiz bunda kriz tehlikesi gren de, bundan kriz uman da ok olabilir. nk Brksele de, piyasalara da kayg verecek bir gelime olaca kesin gibi. Ama bu olasl bir de tersinden bakmakta yarar olabilir. Kriz bazen iyi sonular retebilir. Eer batmak veya kmek talya iin kt ise, elbette Avrupa Birlii ve Avro Blgesi iin de kt. O nedenle karlkl bamllk ilkesi erevesinde ve bileik kaplar kuram gerei, talyann btn Avrupaya kendi istedii hkmetin kurulmasn kabul ettirmesi daha kolay. nk esas mesele talyada kaos yaanmamas ise, Roma doru bir diplomasi ile kendi tercihlerini Avrupaya kaos olmamasnn tek yolu olarak sunabilir. taly an semenin tutumu ve seim sonular bunun mmkn olduunu ifade etti. talyanlarn Avrupa Birlii zerindeki Alman glgesinden memnun olmad, seimlerden nce de biliniyordu. talyanlar oy atarken borsann dmesinden veya tahvil piyasalarnn dalgalanmasndan korkmadlar. Belki daha nce korkuyorlard. Belki daha nce Montinin tuhaf geliini ve Brksel merkezli, piyasa odakl politikalarn korkudan kabul ettiler. nk etmeselerdi, piyasalar tedirgin olurdu ve istikrar bozulurdu. imdi piyasalar gerek anlamda tedirgin ve istikrar artk bozuk Avrupa Birlii 2013 yln ekonomik duraanlkla geirecek. Avrupa Birlii btn yl boyunca ekonomik duraanlkla savamaya devam edecek. Birlik asndan olabilecek en kt ey talyada ve spanyada ekonomik durumun daha ktye gitmesi. nk Avrupa Birlii bu yk kaldramayabilir. Ne istikrar mekanizmas ne de eylem planlar bunu zebilir. O nedenle Avrupa Birliinin 2013 yl ierisi nde en ufak yeni bir prz olmas halinde dahi, yaayabilecei yeni gelimeleri kendi denetiminde tutabilmesi olasl ok dk. Brksel bunu dikkate alyor. Elbette talyan semenler de. talyann Yunandan Fark talyan semenler Yunanlara oranla daha akll davrand. lkeyi gsterilerle, grevlerle alt st etmedi. Elbette talyada da gsteriler oldu. talyada da halk fkelendi. renciler sinirlendi. Emekliler, alanlar zld, kaygland. Ama Yunanistanda yaananlar talyada yaanmad. talyada semen ok daha akllca hareket etti. talyan semen doru zamanda, doru tepkiyi verdi. ok byk bir olaslkla talya ierisinde bulunduu mali krizden birka yl ierisinde kamayacak. Dolaysyla talyanlar iin kayglar, korkular devam edecek. Ama yine de talyanlar -her ne kadar Yunanlarla ayn nedenlerle ve gerekelerle- reaksiyon gstermi olsalar da, Yunanlardan farkl biimde gsterdikleri tavrn avantajlarn yaayabilirler.

READING GRILLO RIGHT

20 03 2013

Beppe Grillo is Italys most recent contribution to European culture The Italian elections are over. The one political leader in the elections who got the most attention and fully deserved it was Beppe Grillo, or Giuseppe Piero Grillo to give his real name. Grillo and the Five Stars Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle- M5S) which he led have won a major victory. Under the surprised stare of observers this extraordinary political movement has won 108 seats in the lower house and 54 in the senate. The Five Stars Movement has not held a convention. It has not yet elected an administration. It refuses to define itself as a political party. The Five Stars Movement defines itself as civil society which has ran in elections. If you find yourself asking what sort of a joke this is, you are on the right track: Beppe Grillo, the leader of the Five Stars Movement, is a comedian. Beppe Grillo refuses the austerity measures. He reacts to European Union pressure on his country. He opposes measures promoted as solutions for the crisis. Beppe Grillo demands a referendum for his countrys continued use of the Euro. What makes Bepp e Grillo popular and sympathetic is that he is not to the left or right of the political establishment: he is completely outside it. Grillo does not see much of a difference between rightwing and leftwing politicians in Italy. Grillo is aware of the mishaps and mistakes in the system. Therefore, for a solution to the problem, he demands that all those factors which contribute to the problem be addressed. This process may develop in a similar manner to the occupy movement which began in the USA and spread to Europe. It may come to be seen as legitimate, just as the Pirate Party, which is effective in European elections or the Anonymous hacker group which launches politically motivated cyber attacks. Outside of the system seems to be the current political preference of the man in the street in Europe. Beppe Grillo and his extraordinary party are an important indicator of this. The Spanish, who have taken Beppe Grillo and the Five Stars Movements lead have began an anti -system opposition movement named the 15th of May 15M. In Spain, as in Italy, left and right parties which have their place within the system are rapidly losing votes to political movements which posit themselves outside of the system. When the time comes to set up the new government in Italy and in Spain, it will probably prove to be impossible without the Five Stars Movement or the 15th of May. The Troika Leave (Que se lixe a Troika) which is increasingly effective in Portugal may achieve a similar victory. The Portuguese anti-system movement reacts similarly to similar issues as its Spanish and Italian counterparts. It does not want the government to implement austerity measures in exchange for fiscal aid from the EU. It rejects the transfer of sovereignty to Brussels. It opposes the regulation of the country by inspectors of the Troika composed of representatives from the IMF, the European Central Bank and the EU Commission. If this process develops healthily and naturally the streets and the squares should support the establishment of the counterbalance which seems to be missing. Thus with a new balance the system will recover and become more functional. Otherwise those who have started following movements which remain outside of the system in Europe will be upset and angry.

GRLLOYU DORU ANLAMAK!

13 03 2013

talyann Avrupa Kltrne Son Armaan Beppe Grillo oldu talyada seimler geride kald. Seimlerin en fazla dikkat eken ve bunu fazlasyla hak eden lideri Beppe Grillo veyahut gerek ad ile Giuseppe Piero Grillo idi. Grillo ve liderliini yapt Be Yldz Hareketi (Movimento 5 Stelle- M5S) ok byk bir baarya imza attlar. Bu sra d ve ok farkl siyasi oluum herkesin akn baklar arasnda 108 milletvekillii ve 54 senatrlk elde etti Be Yldz Hareketi daha hi kongre yapmad. Henz ynetim de kurmad. Zaten kendisini siyasi parti olarak tanmlamay da ret ediyor. Be Yldz Hareketi, kendisini seimlere katlm sivil toplum olarak tanmlyor. Belki kendinize byle komedi olur mu diye sorabilirsiniz. Haklsnz; Zaten Be Yldz Hareketinin lideri Beppe Grillo da bir komedyen.

Beppe Grillo kemer skma politikalarn ret ediyor. Avrupa Birliinin lkesi zerinde basksna kar kyor. Krizden k yolu olarak sunulan zm yntemlerine kar kyor. Beppe Grillo ayrca lkesinde Avro Blgesinden k iin referandum yaplmasn talep ediyor. Beppe Grilloyu popler ve sempatik klan detay, onun talyada mevcut siyasi sistemin sanda veya solunda deil, tamamyla sistemin dnda yer almas. Grillo lkedeki sac veya solcu siyasetileri birbirinden ok farkl deerlendirmiyor. Grillo sistemdeki aksaklklarn ve hatalarn farknda. Grillo bu nedenle sorunun zm iin, sorunu ortaya karan btn nedenlerin ortadan kaldrlmasn talep ediyor. Bu srecin devam ABDde balayan ve Avrupaya srayan igal et hareketi gibi olabilir. Ayrca Avrupada seimlerde etkisini gsteren Korsan Partisi veya siyasi temelli internet saldrlar dzenleyen Anonymous adl biliim grubunun makul ve meru alglanmas gibi olabilir. Avrupada sokaktaki adamn siyasi tercihi ve kendisini temsil ettiini dnd siyasi pozisyon sistemin d olarak kendisini gstermeye balad. Beppe Grillo ve sra d partisi de bunun nemli bir gstergesi konumunda. Nitekim Beppe Grilloyu ve Be Yldz Hareketini model alan spanyollar da 15 Mays -15M adnda sistem kart bir muhalif hareket balattlar. spanyada da -talyada olduu gibi- sistem ierisinde yer alan merkez sa ve merkez sol partiler hzl biimde oy kayb yaarken, kendisini sistem dnda konumlandran siyasi oluumlar gleniyorlar. Muhtemelen hem talyada hem de spanyada yeni hkmet kurulmasnn zaman geldiinde Be Yldz Hareketi ve 15 Mays olmadan kurulamayacak. Belki Portekizde giderek daha etkili olan Troika Defolsun Grubu (Que se lixe a Troika)) da benzer bir baar elde eder. nk talyanlar ve spanyollarla ayn sorunlar yaayan Portekizlilerin sistem d muhalif oluumu, 15 Mays ve Be Yldz Hareketi ile ayn ko nulara tepki veriyor. Hkmetin Avrupa Birliine mali yardm karlnda tasarruf tedbirleri uygulamasn istemiyor. Hkmetin Brksele daha faz la egemenlik yetkisi devretmesini ret ediyor. lkeyi Uluslararas Para Fonu, Avrupa Merkez Bankas ve AB Komisyonu tarafndan tekil edilen Troykann denetlemesine ve ynetmesine itiraz ediyor. Bu srecin devamnda eer geliim salkl ve doal yollardan olursa sokaklar ve meydanlar sistemde eksiklii grlen denge noktasnn salanmasna katk verir. Bu sayede sistem yeni bir denge anlay ile kendisini toparlar ve daha faydal hale gelir. Dier trl Avrupada sisteme gvensizlikten dolay sistem d oluumlara ynelen kesimler daha fkeli ve mutsuz olur.

FEAR OF FISCAL CLIFF DISPELLED

10 01 2013

The first great fear of 2013 for the USA has been overcome and the Republican controlled House of Representatives has accepted the law which will increase taxation on the wealthy, an Obama election pledge, by 257 for and 167 against. The same law has been approved by the Senate is a separate vote. For now the US economy has been saved from a premature recession. The future, however, is not very clear. The fact that the fiscal cliff has been avoided means that automatic tax hikes and spending cuts have been averted in the USA. However, the most indebted country in the world will sooner or later increased taxation. There will be cuts to spending. It might be lower in scope and over a longer term, but these will happen. The proposed law for averting the fiscal cliff has tax hikes for the wealthy and a postponing of spending cuts for two months. On the other hand it should not be forgotten that the USA has to make its budget next. As budget talks begin, Republicans and Democrats will once more come to blows. In the two month period, it will become clear which sources of income and expenditure will change. The avoidance of the fiscal cliff and the last minute settlement between the sides was presented to world public opinion sugar coated, almost as a New Years present. However, measures need to be taken while preparing the budget in order to lower the budget deficit. There might be major problems in the USA as the budget is prepared. Economist Nouriel Roubini claims that the agreement signed to avert the fiscal cliff is no victory. In an article in the Financial Times, Professor Nouriel Roubini wrote that the agreement to avert the fiscal cliff has brought the USA back from the verge, but that a new crisis will emerge soon. According to Roubinis claims, as of the 1 st of March 2013, USD 110 billion worth of spending cuts will come in to force in the USA. Thus the USAs debt ceiling will be reached. Roubini claims that throughout 2013, there wil l be many disputes between Republicans and Democrats over medium term fiscal consolidation. American economist Morici claims that the agreement on the fiscal cliff will not serve towards recovering the economy. Peter Morici from the University of Maryland School of Management has told Bloomberg that the US economy is suffering from insufficient demand, and that growth will continue at around 2 percent, adding that the tax and spending agreement approved by Congress does not represent progress in this respect. Writing in the New York Times Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman said If you think it is the beginning of the end of the Obama administration, wait for the debt ceiling debate. One should mark the date the 1st of March 2013.

UURUM KORKUSU GET

09 01 2013

ABDnin 2013 iin ilk byk korkusu ald ve Cumhuriyetilerin ounlua sahip olduu Temsilciler Meclisi, Barack Obamann seim vaadi olan en zenginlerin vergilerinin artrlmasn ngren yasay 167'ye kar 257 oyla kabul etti. Ayn yasa ayr bir oylamayla Senat o'da da kabul edildi. Bylece ABD ekonomisi resesyona girmekten kurtarld. Bu aamada byk bir skntnn nne geildi, ama gelecek halen ok net deil Mali uurumun ald bilgisi, ABD'de byk vergi artlar ve harcama kesintilerinin devreye girmesinin nlenmesine balanyor. Ama dnyann en borlu lkesi er ya da ge vergileri artracak. Muhakkak harcamalarda kesinti olacak. Belki planlandndan daha az veya daha uzun vadede gelecekleecek, ama olacak. nk mali uurumun nlenmesi iin hazrlanan nerge zenginlere uygulanan vergilerin arttrlmasn ve harcama kesintilerinin iki aylna ertelenmesini ieriyor. Dier taraftan unu da unutmamak lazm. ABDde srada bte var. Bte hazrlanrken Cumhuriyetiler ve Demokratlar bir kez daha kozlarn paylaacaklar. ki aylk srete btede hangi gelir ve giderlerin ne nispette artaca ve azalaca netleecek. Mali uurumun -yani ABD ekonomisini resesyona itecek olan vergi artrmlar ve harcama kesintilerinin- ABD btesi ierisinde yer almas mmkn. Mali uurumun nlenmesi ve taraflarn son dakikada uzlamas ABD ve dnya kamuoyuna ok gzel sslenerek ve paketlenerek, adeta bir yeni yl hediyesi gibi sunuldu. Bte yaplrken byk bte an azaltmak iin muhakkak tedbir alnmas gerekiyor. ABDde bte yaplrken ok sorun yaanabilir. Nitekim krizin kahini Nouriel Roubini de mali uurumun nlenmesi iin imzalanan anlamann zafer olmadn ifade ediyor. Profesr Nouriel Roubini, Financial Timestaki yazsnda mali uurumun engellenmesi iin salanan anlamasnn ABD ekonomisin i uurumdan dndrdn, ama uzun zaman gemeden yeni bir kriz olacan yazd. Roubininin iddiasna gre 1 Mart 2013 tarihi itibariyle ABDde 110 milyar USD miktarnda harcama kesintisi yrrle girecek. Bylece ABDnin resmi borlanma limiti dolacak. Roubini 2013 yl boyunca Cumhuriyetiler ile Demokratlar arasnda orta vadeli mali konsolidasyon konusunda sklkla anlamazlk yaanacan da savunuyor. Amerikal ekonomist Morici, mali uurum anlamasnn ekonomiyi toparlamaya yardmc olmayacan ileri sryor. Bloombergin haberine gre Maryland niversitesi Robert H. Smith letme Fakltesi profesr Peter Morici, ABD ekonomisinin yetersiz talep sknts iinde olduuna ve bymenin yllk yzde 2'lerde seyredeceine dikkat eken Morici, Senato ve Temsilciler Meclisi'nin onaylad vergi ve harcama anlamasnn, bu surette bir ilerleme tablosu sunmadn belirtti. Nobel sahibi ekonomist Paul Krugman da, New York Times'ta yer alan yazsnda Obama'nn bakanlnda sonun balangc m gel di derseniz bor tavan tartmalarn beklememenizi neririm dedi. Galiba saatleri 1 Mart 2013 gnne ayarlamak lazm.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN 2013

10 01 2013

A difficult year begins It is possible to come up with a few practical diagnoses for 2013. In 2013 we will come to miss 2012. 2013 will definitely be more difficult than 2012. It will be a bad year politically and economically. As 2013 ends, we will say 2012 was better, everything was better back then. No problems were solved around the world in 2012. Wars did not come to an end. Regional tensions were not lowered. Uprisings and rebellions did not cease. Global crises were not over. The risk of a global recession continues. There is global unemployment and poverty. Hunger continues. On the first day of 2013 the council presidency of the European Union passed from Southern Cyprus to Ireland. Thus the term presidency of the European Union shifted from a country on the verge of bankruptcy to Ireland, which is one of the first victims of the crisis and which has barely begun to recover itself.

In Germany there will be state elections in Lower Saxony in January and local elections in Schleswig-Holstein on the 26 of May. Both elections nd are critical. Both elections are critical. There will be German federal parliament elections on the 22 of September. nd th On the 22 of January there parliamentary elections will be held in Israel. On the 9 of April, it will be the tenth anniversary of the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, one of the most problematic countries of 2012. Given the tensions between the regional Kurdish administration and the central government in Baghdad as well as rising reaction in Sunni Arab regions, the near future may be painful for Iraq. st On the 1 of June Croatia will become a member of the European Union. The same day Lithuania will become the new term president. The elections in Germany will be the main event of 2013 in Europe. However, problems inherited from 2012 will continue. The recession in Europe seems set to deepen. Elections will be held in Italy but are unlikely to solve any major issues. It is certain that 2013 will be a fearful ride for Southern Cyprus, Portugal, Spain and Italy. For Greece the worst is yet to come. Due to the institutional shortcomings of the UN, the murderous Assad regime in Syria continues to kill its own people. The regime in Damascus may extend the conflict to Turkey and Lebanon in order to lengthen its lifespan. In Egypt stability has not yet been ensured and Cairo will for a while be described as a risky place. The dust of the Arab Spring has not yet settled down in Tunisia and Libya. In Afghanistan the problems are great and continue to grow. There is the risk of civil war in Iraq as well as the on-going conflict in Syria. Palestine might just be the most stable place in the Middle East in 2013, as the developments experienced during the last quarter of 2012 might allow for both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank to breathe easy in 2013. Yemen, Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia and Ethiopia are in a situation best deemed a global security issue. Furthermore there are serious regional tensions in Congo, Nigeria, the Ivory Coast and the Central African Republic. Conflicts are growing throughout Africa. The recent sensitivity over women rights and reaction recently experienced in India is connected with the hunger, poverty and unhappiness in the country. Pakistan is unlikely to have an easy ride in 2013. In 2012 many separatist and terrorist organisations have chosen to settle for various reasons. The Philippines government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front have signed a framework agreement. The ETA organisation in Spain, which fought for Basque independence announced that it was ready to lay down arms and dissolve itself. Peace talks have begun between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). FARC will probably lay down arms. On the other hand, the Flemish region in Belgium, Catalonia in Spain and Scotland in Great Britain are nearing separation. Scotland will hold a referendum in 2014. Belgium is in a critical situation. There seems no way that Brussels can avoid splitting up. The most suitable development in Belgium might be a weak confederation. There might be exciting developments throughout 2013. Spain is concerned over Catalo nia and the Basque country. Both wealthy regions want to break away from Castile. In Italy Southern Tyrol is increasingly vocal about its demands for autonomy. Turkey seems set for important developments in this respect. The European Unions regions policy and Kosovos decla ration of independence from Syria have impacted directly on the political fortunes of the old continent. In Latin America 2013 will be an important year. The condition of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez might lead to a destabilisation of prevailing political conditions in the country. Bolivarism, which has overtaken much of Latin America might be heard of more often in the coming year. The Bolivarian Alliance for Our America (ALBA) set up by those countries which defend Bolivarism is becoming more effective. Antigua and Barbuda, Bolivia, the Dominican Republic, Equator, Cuba, Nicaragua, St. Vincent and Grenada and Venezuela have rapidly developed cooperation. There are also organisations such as Unasur, Telesur, Petrosur, Petrocaribe and Banco del Sur which were founded to advance regional cooperation in various fields. Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil are also in dialogue with these cooperation mechanisms. Another organisation which will be talked about often in 2013 will be the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. This is indicated by the rising importance of China in world politics and trade. Another important indicator is the increasingly aggressive foreign policy pursued by Russia. Other than the Peoples Republic of China and the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are members of this organisation. The Collective Security Treaty Organisation may also be a significant actor in changes of balance to be experienced in 2013. As Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus and Armenia act together, they might succeed in increasing their effectiveness. 2013 might not be a very fast year for Iran. Yet the possibility of tensions rising remains depending on Israels approach an d the official/semiofficial statements Israel makes use of to test the water. The agenda for 2013 will be determined by the financial sector. The actors and actions of the financial markets will decide on many things. Neoliberalism will stay strong in 2013. We are in a difficult year of world history. Nothing will come easily.

th

2013TE NELER OLACAK?

09 01 2013

Zor bir yl balad

2013 yl iin hemen birka pratik tehiste bulunmak mmkn. 2013 ylnda 2012 yln ok zleyeceiz. 2013 kesinlikle 2012y e gre ok daha zor bir yl olacak. Hem siyasi hem de iktisadi adan kt bir yl olacak. 2013 biterken, aslnda 2012 ok iyi bir yld. Her ey daha iyiydi diyeceiz 2012 ylnda yeryznde hemen hemen hibir sorun zlmedi. Mevcut savalar sona ermedi. Blgesel gerilimler drlemedi. Ay aklanmalar ve isyanlar durdurulamad. Kresel krizler bitirilemedi. Kresel resesyon riski sryor. Kresel boyutta isizlik krizi var. Kr esel boyutta fakirlik riski var. Alk artyor. 2013 ylnn ilk gnnde Avrupa Birliinin konsey dnem bakanl Gney Kbrstan rlandaya geti. Bylece Avrupa Birliinde srayla yaplan konsey dnem bakanl iflasn eiindeki bir lkeden, kresel mali krizin ilk kurbanlarndan olan ve kendisini henz yeni toparlamaya balayan rlandaya geti. Almanyada Ocak aynda Aa Saksonyada eyalet seimleri ve 26 Maysta Schleswig-Holsteinda yerel seimler var. Her iki seim de kritik. nk Almanyada 22 Eyllde federal parlamento seimleri olacak. 22 Ocakta da srailde parlamento seimleri var. 2012 ylnn en sorunlu lkelerinden Irakta 9 Nisan gn Saddamn devrilmesinin onuncu yldnm yaanacak. Irakta blgesel Krt ynetimi ve merkezi Badat hkmeti arasndaki gerilim ve Snni Arap blgelerinde artan tepkiler dikkate alndnda Irak iin yakn gelecek ok sancl olabilir. 1 Haziranda Hrvatistan Avrupa Birliine katlm srecini tamamlayacak. Ayn gn dnem bakanl Litvanyaya geecek. Almanyadaki seimler n plana kacak 2013 ylnda. Ama 2012den kt miras olarak gelen sorunlar da devam ediyor. Avrupada resesyon var ve derinleecek gibi grnyor. talyada seimler var ve sorunu zmeyecei anlalyor. Gney Kbrs, Portekiz, spanya ve talya 2013 yln da korku tnelinde geirecekler, bu imdiden belli. Yunanistan iin ise kt gnler daha balamad bile. Birlemi Milletlerin kurumsal yetersizlii yznden Suriyede katil Esad rejimi halkn ldrmeye devam ediyor. amn rejim in mrn uzatmak iin atmalar Lbnana ve Trkiyeye yaymas denemesi ihtimali ok yksek. Msrda istikrar henz salanamad ve uzun bir sre daha Kahire iin en uygun deyim, riskli olacak. Tunus ve Libyada Arap Bahar ayaklanmalarnn ardndan istikrar henz salanamad. Afganistanda sorunlar byk ve byyerek devam ediyor. Irakta hem mezhepler hem de blgeler arasndaki gerilimler artarak devam ediyor. Suriyenin yan sra Irak iin de i sava tehlikesi var. Muhtemelen btn Orta Douda 2013 yln en istikrarl biimde geirecek olan yer Filistin olacak. 2012 ylnn son eyreinde yaanan gelimeler hem Bat eriann hem de Gazze eridinin 2013 ylnda daha rahat nefes alabileceine iaret ediyor. Yemen, Sudan, Eritre, Somali ve Etiyopya da durum kresel gvenlik sorunu boyutunda. Ayrca Kongo, Nijerya, Fildii Sahille ri ve Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti bata olmak zere Afrikann ou blgesinde ok ciddi blgesel gerilimler var. Afrikada atmalar artyor ve byyor. Hindistanda en son kadn haklar konusunda artan hassasiyet ve toplumun ortaya koyduu tepkiler, esasen lkedeki alk, fa kirlik ve mutsuzluk ile irtibatl. Ayrca Pakistanda da 2013 ylnn kolay gemeyecei kesin. 2012 ylnda -her ne olduysa- birok ayrlk ve terrist hareket uzlama yoluna girdi. Filipinler hkmeti ile Moro slami Kurtulu Cephesi (MILF) arasnda ereve anlamas imzaland. spanyann Bask blgesinin bamszl iin silahl mcadele veren ETA rgt, silah brakarak kendini lavetmeye hazr olduunu aklad. Kolombiya hkmeti ile Kolombiya Devrimci Silahl Gleri (FARC) arasnda bar grmeleri balad. ok byk olaslkla FARC da ayn yola devam edecek. Dier taraftan Belika Flaman blgesinin, spanya Katalonyann ve Byk Britanya skoyann ayrlna hazrlanyor. skoya 2014 ylnda bunun iin referandum yapacak. Belika da ok kritik durum da. Brksel iin blnme kanlmaz son gibi grnyor. Belikada yaanabilecek en uygun sonu, gevek konfederasyon olabilir. 2013 yl boyunca heyecan verici gelimeler olabilir. spanya ise hem Bask blgesi he m de Katalonya iin kaygl. nk her iki zengin blgede artk yola Kastilya ile devam etmek istemiyor. talyada da Gney Tirol otonomi talebini eskiye gre daha yksek sesle dile getiriyor. Trkiyede de bu konuda nemli bir veya birka gelime olaca grlyor. Avrupa Birliinin izledii blgeler politikas ve bilhassa Kosovann Srbistandan bamszln tanmas yal ktann siyasi kaderini dorudan etkiledi. Latin Amerikann tarihinde de 2013 yl nemli yer tutacak. Venezella Devlet Bakan Hugo Chavezin salk durumu, bu lked eki mevcut siyasi yapnn istikrarn bozabilir. Ayn ekilde Latin Amerikann ok byk blmn etkisine alan Bolivarizm bu yl adn daha fazla duyurabilir. Bolivarizmi savunan lkelerin kurduu Bizim Amerikamz iin Bolivarc ttifak (ALBA) giderek daha etkili hale geliyor. Antigua ve Barbuda, Bolivya, Dominik Cumhuriyeti, Ekvator, Kba, Nikaragua, St. Vincent ve Grenada ve Venezella blgesel ibirliini son yllarda hzla gelitirdiler. Ayrca Halklar Ticaret Anlamas ad altnda bir belge imzaladlar. Bunun yan sra blgesel ibirliini eitli zeminlerde daha ileriye tamak iin kurulmu Unasur, Telesur, Petrosur, Petrocaribe ve Banco del Sur adl kurulular da var. Arjantin, Uruguay ve Brezilya da sz konusu ibirlii mekanizmalar ile diyalog halinde. 2013 ylnda ad oka geecek bir dier rgt de angay birlii rgt olacak. zellikle dnya ticaretinde ve siyasetinde inin neminin hzla artmas bunun bir gstergesi. Keza Rusyann da giderek artan bir ritimle agresif bir d politika takip etmesi de, bunun ok nemli bir iareti. in Halk Cumhuriyeti ve Rusya Federasyonunun yan sra Kazakistan, Krgzistan, Tacikistan ve zbekistan bu rgte yeler. A ma Kolektif Gvenlik Anlamas rgt de 2013 ylnda yaanacak dengelerde ve denge deiimlerinde gndeme gelebilir. Gerekten de Rusya, Kazakistan, Krgzistan, Tacikistan, Beyaz Rusya ve Ermenistan beraber hareket ederken, etkinliklerini artrmakta baarl olabilirler. 2013 yl ran konusunda ok fazla hareketli olmayacak gibi. Ama her durumda srailin tutumuna gre ve Tahrann zaman zaman adeta bir meteorolojik test balonu gibi kulland resmi/yar resmi aklamalaryla tansiyonu ykseltebilir. 2013 ylnda gndemi yine finans sektr belirleyecek. Mali piyasalarn aktrleri ve tutumlar yine pek ok eye karar verecek. Neoliberalizm 2013 ylnda da gcn koruyacak. Dnya tarihinin zor, etin ve meakkatli bir ylna girdik. Bu yl hibir ey kolay olmayacak.

13 (THIRTEEN)
10 01 2013

Two thousand and thirteenth years The calendar has turned to a new year. According to the Gregorian calendar we are in the two thousand and thirteenth year. Nothing has changed but the calendar on the wall on the night of 31st of December. Those who claimed that 2012 would be the end of the world, based on the Mayan

calendar were wrong. One needs to stand on certain numbers and not on others. The two thousand and thirteenth year may live up to the reputation of the number thirteen. It maymind you, it not necessarily will. Playing with numbers and running calculations is fun. Sometimes it can drive a person away from the facts. Perhaps this is why it is fun, but once fun comes before clear reasoning, the results are hardly desirable. According to the Gregorian calendar we are in the two thousand and thirteenth year. We think this due to the particular calendar we use and its system of calculation. We formulate opinions based on this idea. If you were to ask the first man in the street what year we are in, he is likely to say 2013, content with knowing the answer. If you were to ask him whether he is sure, he would maintain the same expression while replying that he is. This is not surprising. Calendars are not debated. They do not vary from person to person. Someone sets the calendar and everyone else follows. This is reasonable. But let us be honest. The fact is that clocks do not measure the time, they measure each other. Calendars do not measure the time either. Whether they are paper, cardboard or digital, calendars only display whatever meaning you have imbued them with and whatever numbers you have put on them. If the person you want to talk to about 2013 happens to live according to the Armenian calendar, he will say no, there is lo ng to go until 2013, we are in 1461. Then you will have to object that they are wrong, that 1461 is long in the past. The Ethiopian calendar shows 2005 and the Bahai calendar shows 170. Your 2013 is 1419 in the Bengalese and 2963 in the Berber calendar. Buddhist calendars now show 2557. Similarly the Hindus, the Chinese, the Koreans, the Arabs, the Japanese, the Jews, the Coptics and others have different calendars. What does the label 2013 matter then? Pragmatism is assumed to be the most appropriate method in these circumstances. If everyone or the majority decides that a point is correct, it is taken to be correct as per common law and the opinions of the Scottish philosopher David Hume. If something is agreed to be not the case, it is not the case. From then on, the agreed matter is either the case or not in subsequent reasoning, discussion and calculation. Everything depends upon human perception. But it is not easy to solve the issue with pragmatism or Hume. We are face to face with a radical issue. Who can claim that time has been correctly calculated since the first calendars? Who has the knowledge to prove this? The first Babylonian calendars took the 29.5 day lapse between two full moons, the lunar moon as their unit of measurement. Egyptians developed the first solar calendar. Mayans had developed a calendar calculating past, as well as future periods. All probably thought their own to be the correct, proper form of calculation. The Egyptians wanted to measure the time due to the impact of the inundation of the Nile on agriculture. The y wanted to settle the boundaries of fields which changed after every flood. There was a need. To go back to our calendar, it was begun with the Julian calendar introduced by Julius Caesar in 46 B.C. This calendar, which was prepared by the Alexandrian astronomer Soisigenes forms the basis of our current calendar. The Julian calendar was given its final form in 8 B.C. under Emperor Augustus. Just as Julius Caesar had given his name to the seventh month, Augustus gave his to the eight. As he saw himself the equal of Julius, Augustus made the number of days in both months equal. Pope Gregory the 13th had the calendar reorganised in 1582 with the bull Inter gravissimas. The Julian calendar had shifted by a day every 128 years. It began in March due to the solar calendar and the course of observed nature. January the 1st had become the first day of the year in a decision taken by the Romans in 153 B.C. It is said that todays Gregorian calendar begins with year zero taken as the birth of Christ. But for Orthodox Christians th e New Year begins on the 14th of January according to the Gregorian calendar. Hence they celebrate Christmas not on the 25th of December as in Western Christianity but on the 7th of January. The New Year began on the 25th of March in England until 1752 and in Scotland until 1600. The Thais celebrate the New Year on the 13th of April. Celts took it to be the 1st of November. To come back to 2013 let us say all other calendars are wrong. Those who live and work according to such calendars make a mi stake. Only our calendar is correct. It is not possible to prove this. Even if we seem to be in 2013 according to the calendar reorganised b y Pope Gregory the 13th, this may not be true. The present Pope Benedict the 16th has announced that it is possible 2012 is not actually 2012. Accordingly we took 2018 or 2019 to be 2012. Now we might be in 2019 and 2020. We cannot be sure. This is why the fear of the number thirteen is not rational. Following the Mayan calendar, the fear of number thirteen might become the new craze. Fear of thirteen fits the anxiety and scepticism of the post-modern period just fine. It would be surprising were it not. Bankrupt countries, burnt out economic models, wars, conflicts, constantly rising regional and global instability and chronic poverty and the fear of famine present even in industrial countries could make blaming the number thirteen a bit unjust, but fear of the number might calm people down somewhat. There are already buildings without a 13th floor, residences without number 13, hotels and hospitals without the 13th room, theatres and planes without the seat number 13. There are also stables, subway lines and the like which are not given the number 13. It is as though what is happening is not due to neo-liberalism but the poor number 13. As though all this is not the effect of an insatiable greed for profit but of the secret power of numbers. As though the whole fault in greed overcoming virtue, the doom of morality and the collapse of human values and virtue can be blamed on a number.

13 (ON )
09 01 2013

kinci bin yln on nc yl

Takvim dnd ve yeni bir yla girdik. Miladi takvime gre Milattan Sonra ikinci bin yln on nc ylna geldik. Aslnda 31 Aralk gecesinde duvara aslan takvim dnda hibir ey deimedi. Yeni yl iin beslenen umutlar da, tanan kayglar da bir nceki yl ile ayn. Maya takvimi nedeniyle 2012 ylnda dnyann sonunun geleceini savunanlar haksz kt. Rakamlar zerinde bazen ok, bazen az durmak gerekir. Ama ikinci bin yln on nc yl gerekten de on n anna uygun da olabilir. Ltfen dikkat buyurun; olur deil, olabilir... Rakamlar ve harflerle oynamak, hesaplar yapmak genellikle keyiflidir. Ama bazen kiiyi gereklerden de uzaklatrabilir. Belk i de bu yzden keyiflidir, fakat keyif akln nne getiinde, yaanan neticeler nadiren faydal olabilir. Mevcut takvime gre, ikinci bin yln on nc ylndayz. Kullandmz takvime ve onun hesaplama sistemine gre bunu dn yoruz. Bu dnceyle de fikir retmeye alyoruz. ayet sokaa karsanz ve karlatnz kiilere hangi ylda olduumuzu sorarsanz, yzlerinde cevab bilmenin verdii gurur ifadesiyle 2013 derler. Eer emin misiniz diye de sorarsanz, ayn yz ifadesini birka kk kasn hareketiyle pekitirip eminim diye cevap verirler. Buna armamak gerekir. nk takvimler tartlmaz. nk takvimler kiiye gre deimez. Birisi takvimi belirler ve herkes ona uyar. Makul olan da budur. Fakat yine de drst olmak lazm. Bu dnyann gerei udur; saatler zaman lmez, saatler birbirini ler. Takvimler de zaman lmez. Takvimler ister kttan, kartondan isterse dijital olsun; Siz ona ne anlam yklediyseniz, siz oraya hangi hesaplamay ve rakamlar yazdysanz, sadece onu gsterir. Eer 2013 yl zerine konumak istediiniz kii Ermeni takvimine gre yayorsa, size itiraz edecektir. Hayr diyecektir. 2013e daha ok var. Biz 1461 ylndayz. O zaman da siz itiraz edersiniz. Yanlyorsunuz. 1461 geeli ok oldu Etiyopya takvimi 2005 yln, Bahailerin takvimi 170 yln gsteriyor. Sizin 2013 yl, Bengal takviminde 1419a ve Berberi takvimde 2963 ylna tekabl ediyorlar. Budistlerin takvimi 2557 yln yaadmz savunuyor. Ayn ekilde Hindularn, inlilerin, Korelilerin, Araplarn, Japonlarn, Musevilerin, Kptilerin ve daha bakalarnn da baka takvimleri var. O zaman ne nemi kald 2013n?... Byle durumlarda pragmatik davranmak en uygun yntem saylr. Nihayetinde ngiliz hukuk sisteminde olduu gibi ve sko fil ozof David Humeun savunduu gibi; herkes veya ounluk bir hususun doru olduuna karar verirse, o husus artk dorudur. ayet bir olgunun olmad karar alnrsa, o olgunun olmad sonucuna varlr. Ondan sonraki dncelerde, fikirlemelerde, hesaplamalarda o husus dorudur ve o olgu ise zaten yoktur. nk her ey insann alglarndan ibarettir. Ve fakat sorunu pragmatizm ile veya Hume ile de zmek hi kolay deil. nk ok kkl bir sorun ile kar karyayz. lk t akvimlerden bu yana zamann doru hesaplandn kim iddia edebilir? Kimin bunu ispat eden bir bilgisi var? lk Babil takvimleri kameri ay, yani birbirini izleyen iki dolunay arasndaki 29,5 gnlk dnemi temel alan bir sistemdi. Gne ylna dayal takvimi ilk gelitirenler, Msrllard. Mayalar da hem gemie hem de gelecee ynelik bir takvim sistemi kurmulard. Muhtemelen her biri iin en doru, en gereki hesaplama kendi takvimiydi. rnein Msrllarn zaman lmek istemesinin nedeni Nil nehrinin taknlarnn her yl tarma getirdii yarar ve zararlarla ilgiliydi Ayrca her takndan sonra deien tarla snrlarnn getirdii mlkiyet sorunlarn amak iindi. Yani bir ihtiya vard. Biz yine miladi takvime dnelim. Miladi takvim M.. 46 ylnda Jl Sezar tarafndan kullanma sokulan Jlyen takvimi ile balad. skenderiyeli astronomi bilgini Sosigenes'in hazrlad bu takvim bugnk takvimimizin de temelini tekil ediyor. Jlyen takvimi, imparato r Augustus dneminde son ekline M.S. 8 ylnda kavutu. Nasl Jlyen takvimini yapan Jl Sezar yedinci aya kendi adn verdiyse, Agustus da sekizinci aya kendi adn verdi. Hatta Agustus kendisini Sezara denk grd iin, her iki ayn gn saysn eitletti. Ama Papa 13. Gregor 16 Asrda, 1582 ylnda takvimi Inter gravissimas ferman ile yeniden dzenledi. Jlyen takvimine gre her 128 ylda bir gnlk bir kayma vard. Yln balangc ise gne takviminden ve doa hareketlerinden dolay Mart idi. 1 Ocak tarihi ise Romalarn Milattan nce 153 ylnda ald kararla yeni yln ilk gn oldu. Bugn kullanlan Miladi takvimin Hz. sa'nn doumunu tarih balangc kabul ettii iddia edilir. Ama btn Hristiyan alemi Hz. sann doum gnn 25 Aralkta kutlar. Ortodokslar iin yeni yl 1 Ocakta deil, 14 Ocakta balar. O nedenle Ortodokslara gre sann doumu 25 Aralk deil, 7 Ocak gndr. ngilterede 1752ye ve skoyada 1600 ylna kadar yeni yln balangc 25 Mart idi. Taylandllar 13 Nisanda yeni yla girer. Yeni yl Keltlere gre 1 Kasmd. Yine 2013 ylna dnmeyi deneyelim ve diyelim ki, dier btn takvimler yanltr. O takvimlere gre yaayanlar, alanlar da hataldr. Sadece bizim takvimimiz dorudur. Bunu ispat etmek pek mmkn deil. Ama Papa Gregorun yeniden dzenledii takvime gre 2013 yln da olsak da, aslnda olmaya da biliriz. nk imdi ki papa, Papa 16. Benediktus da 2012 ylnn 2012 yl olmama ihtimalinin yksek olduunu aklad. Buna gre y a 2018 ya da 2019 yln biz 2012 yl zannettik. O halde imdi de ya 2019 ya da 2020 ylnda olabiliriz. Yani onu da tam bilemiyoruz O nedenle Triskaidekafobi ok da mantkl bir ey deil. Triskaidekafobi, on saysndan korkmak anlamna geliyor. Maya takviminin ardndan on korkusu yeni yln yeni modas olabilir. Post modern dnemin bireysel ve toplum sal ruh hali olan kronik boyutta akisiyete ve septizm, yani tedirginlik ve takntllk iin triskaidekafobi yeni moda olabilir. Aslnda olmamas artc olur. flas eden lkeler, tkenen ekonomi modelleri, savalar, atmalar, srekli artan blgesel ve kresel riskler, hatta endstri lkelerinde ba gsteren kronik fakirlik ve alk korkusu toplandnda, bu yla bakldnda belki suu on rakamnda aramak hakszlk olur, ama yine de triskaidekafobi insanlar bir yere kadar rahatlatr. 13. kat olmayan gkdelenler, 13 numaral konutun olmad apartmanlar, 13 numaral odann olmad oteller, hastaneler, 13 numaral koltuun olmad tiyatrolar ve uaklar var. Hatta 13 ile numaralanmayan ahrlar, metro hatlar ve saire. Sanki yaananlar neoliberalizmin suu deil de, zavall on rakamndan kaynaklanyormu gibi. Sanki olup bitenlere bankalarn ayarsz kar ihtiras deil de, rakamlarn gizli laneti yol am gibi. Dnyada yaanan temel sorunda, yani eyyamn erdemi alt etmesinde, ahlakn kyametinde, insani deerlerin ve erdem ahlaknn maherinde kabahat bir rakamnm gibi.

BEING PREPARED FOR THE FUTURE

19 02 2013

Every day a new report or analysis is published. Most have points in common. Almost all of them, for example, speak of cautious optimism. In other words, those responsible for the study want to be optimistic, but their anxiety makes it difficult to be optimistic. Writers of most of these reports try to convey the present sad situation to their readers in a more acceptable manner. They try to produce reasons for hope and to make an effort to be optimistic. No one wants to scare the markets. But these may not be enough to be prepared for the future. One needs to pay attention to a certain details which feature in most of these studies. Access to food is becoming difficult. Speculation over agricultural land is feverish. As an inevitable consequence of the global crisis, unemployment has been falling sharply. The real sector is facing strong challenges. Output is falling. The fall in consumption and lower standards of living put pressure on real sector output. The vicious circle continues as states abandon their social responsibilities and lower healthcare and education investment in order to pay back more debt. Less medicine, fewer operations, fewer schools and fewer teachers are seen as solutions to the crisis. Cuts to pay and pensions is becoming the norm around the world. The danger grows. There will be two consequences of this: the first being that the educational level of coming generations will be lower. At a time in which youth unemployment has set a new record , the future middle age population of those countries affected by the crisis will be less educated. This will have very negative consequences. The second outcome is that the fall in spending on healthcare both by households and the government will unsurprisingly lower the physical and mental wellbeing of societies. Diseases thought to be long eradicated may surface once again. There might be very poor developments. None of these constitutes a prophecy. The consequences of lower education and lower healthcare can be no weaker than the merger of two storms. In countries affected by the crisis, there is a long time to go until the crisis is overcome. No organisation including the World Economic Forum, the IMF, the World Bank, the European Central Bank, the Eurozone, the FED and many others, believe that the crisis will dissipate soon. The opinion that the USA will finally emerge from the crisis during the second half of 2020 is becoming widespread. Thus, even if the world is free of the crisis in the 2020s, there are still many problems to be faced. There were those, back in 2007, who claimed that the crisis would be over within a few months. Furthermore, even if the crisis is overcome in the next decade, the underprivileged youth of today will then be in charge of the economy and politics and fill the ranks of state organisations and NGOs. This generation has a few identifying points. They have grown up in anxiety. Their entire life is under the pressure of the crisis. This generation has thus learned to be apprehensive of the future. They do not know what will happen and how and where they will lead their lives. They have been denied a good education. In order to save money, states first cut back on education, even going as far as shutting down schools. Furthermore, the new generation is not as healthy as before, even in wealthier countries. The state is spending less. Therefore it is cutting back its support to public health in the name of austerity. This results inevitable in an unhealthy society. Those who are young now will have a voice after the crisis or towards its end. They will be in charge. Having experienced unemployment in its youth, this generation will only be able to give back to its country what it received from it.

GELECEE HAZIR OLMAK!

16 01 2013

Hemen her gn yeni bir rapor veyahut analiz yaynlanyor. Bunlarn ounda baz ortak noktalar var. rnein hemen hepsi temkinli iyimserlik ile yazlyor. Biraz daha ak ifade edilmesi gerekirse, almay hazrlayanlar iyimser olmak istiyorlar, ama duyduklar tedirginlik iyimser olmalarn gletiriyor. Ayrca rapor yazanlarn ou okuyucularna mevcut ac durumu bir para daha kolay kabullenilebilir biimde sunmaya gayret ediyorlar. Umutlu olmak iin neden retmeye ve iyimser olmak iin gayret gstermeye alyorlar. Nihayetinde hi kimse piyasalar tedirgin etmek istemiyor Ama gelecee hazr olmak iin bunlar yetmeyebilir. Btn almalarn hemen hepsinde yer alan baz verilere dikkat etmek art; Gdaya eriim zorlayor. Tarm sahalar zerinde speklasyon artyor. Kresel krizin nlenemeyen sonucu olarak istihdam hzla azalyor. Reel sektr byk bir meydan okuma ile kar karya. O nedenle retim dyor. Tketimdeki azalma eilimi ve den yaam standartlar, reel sektrn retmesini zorlatryor. Burada ortaya kan ksr dngde devletler daha fazla bor deyebilmek iin sosyal devlet ykmllklerinden feragat ederek, eitim ve salk sahalarnda yatrmdan kanyorlar. Daha az ila, daha az ameliyat, daha az okul ve daha az retmen ile krizin hafifletilmesi umuluyor. Hatta da az maa ile sorunun alaca varsaylyor. Maalarda, emekli maalarnda kesintinin krese l sistemde olaanlamaya balad. Tehlike byyor. Bunun iki sonucu olacak; Birincisi lkelerin ve gelecek nesillerin eitim seviyesi ve kalitesi decek. Hlihazrda genler arasnda isizlik istatistiklerinin rekor krd u dnemin devamnda, krizden etkilenen lkelerde orta ya grubu daha eitimsiz ve daha kalitesiz olacak. Bunun

sonular ok kt olur. kincisi ise salk iin hem aile btesinden hem de devlet btesinden harcanan parann azalmas, artc olmayan biimde toplumun akl ve beden saln bozacak. Belki de uzun zamandr grnmeyen ve yok edildii zannedilen tehlikeli salgn hastalklar yeniden ortaya kacak. Vahim gelimeler olabilir. Bunlarn hibirisi kehanet deil. Daha az eitim ve daha az salk bir araya geldiinde, sonular iki kasrgann arpmasndan farkl olmaz. Krizden etkilenen lkelerde, krizin tam anlamyla almasna daha ok uzun yllar var. Dnya Ekonomik Forumu, Uluslararas Pa ra Fonu, Dnya Bankas, Avrupa Merkez Bankas, Avro Grubu, ABD Merkez Bankas FED ve benzeri hibir kurulu krizin ksa vadede biteceine inanmyor. Hatta ABDnin krizden kurtulmasnn 2020li yllarn ikinci yarsnda olmas ihtimalinin bulunduu kanaati genel destek gryor. Dolaysyla yerkremiz kresel krizden ngrld gibi 2020li yllarda kurtulsa dahi, daha byk sorunlarla kar karya kalacak. Geri 2007 ylnda da kresel krizin birka ayda ya da birka ylda alacan savunanlar vard. Ayrca nmzdeki on ylda kriz alsa da, ondan sonra ekonomi den siyasete, devlet kademelerinden sivil toplum kurulularna kadar hemen her yerde grev alacak olanlar, bugnk gen nesiller. Bu gen nesildeki herkesin baz ortak noktalar var. Onlar tedirginlikle byyorlar. nk btn yaamlar kriz basks altnda geiyor. Ayn nesiller bu nedenle gelecek korkusuyla yaamay rendi. Gelecekte ne olacan da, hayatlarn nasl ve nerede srdreceklerini de bilmiyorlar. Ayrca iyi eitimden mahrum haldeler. nk devletler tasarruf iin ilk srada eitimi feda etti ve hatta okullar kapatt, retmenleri iten kard. Ayn nesil yaad lke zengin dahi olsa- eskisi kadar salkl deil. nk devlet daha fazla bor demek iin daha az harcama yapyor. Bunun iin de tasarruf tedbirleri ad altnda halk salna verdii destei azaltyor. Bunun sonucu elbette ve kanlmaz biimde salksz toplum. imdi gen nesilde olanlar, krizin sonrasnda veya sonuna doru lkelerinde sz sahibi olacaklar. Grevler alacaklar. Hemen hepsi genliinde en az bir defa isizlii yaam olan bu nesiller. lkelerine sadece ondan aldklar kadarn verebilecekler!

BE WORRIED ABOUT THE FUTURE

19 02 2013

We may have been too dismissive of the Mayans: the new year, old problems, new consequences Could we have misunderstood the Mayan prophecy? They spoke of an apocalypse. They claimed that 2012 would be the end of the world or that is what we understood. We are now in 2013 and the world stands. We are happy for this and see that the Mayas were wrong. But looking at the global conjecture one may see that the Mayas were not completely off the mark. As 2013 ends, we might think that they were pretty close. There is hunger and poverty in the world. Epidemics spread. Arrogance and ambition have taken hold of people. Poverty increases at the global level. Countries are going bankrupt. Regimes which were thought to be permanent a few years ago are being overthrown. Violence is on the rise around the world. Given this outlook, it is not possible to claim that the Mayans were wrong. Perhaps rocks did not rain down on us, volcanoes did not erupt fire and death and perhaps the earths crust was not ripped apart with earthquakes, but these were not the expected, fe ared developments. Taking up 2013, the World Economic Forum pointed out similar results in a way completely unrelated with the Mayas. Perhaps apocalypse is an exaggeration for many people. The lightest expression might be then like the apocalypse. The World Economic Forum has politely pointed out that the global system is malfunctioning, the course is wrong and the efforts made to overcome the crisis are not sincere. Perhaps it does not want to put these points into so many words, but its global risk report lends itself easily to these conclusions. The report underlines the expectation that income inequality will continue to rise in the coming decade. Income inequality will have greater impact around the world, with new consequences. There will be greater unemployment, political anger, poverty and conflict. The global system prioritises debt repayment in order to overcome the crisis. Thus debt calculated from digitally produced data on computer screens is being paid back with real money. A far as one can see, the neo-liberal financial markets are only interested in the crisis insofar as it concerns their profit margins and increases. The financial markets are not concerned with other dimensions of the crisis or the impact their moves will have. The global crisis consists of concentric and intertwined rings of crises. Each ring contains those smaller than it. The expansion or contraction of each ring increases or reduces the pressure on its neighbours. The most important and influential crisis within the global crises is the global financial crisis. However, as the mentioned report pointed out, income inequality will grow around the world and the global system will be tested by the global unemployment crisis. There will also be unavoidable poverty and food crises. Food is a field of speculation for financial markets. If the method in dealing with the global crisis does not change, there might be even worse developments in the near future. The crisis which began in 2007 continues to gather strength. Everything that was attempted against it since 2007 has only strengthened the crisis. Therefore the public deficit in many countries may be expected to grow. Therefore one of the rings of the global crisis will be the debt crisis. It is certain that this crisis will manifest in the Eurozone as the Euro crisis.

GELECEK N TEDRGN OLMAK LAZIM

16 01 2013

Galiba Mayalara hakszlk ettik; Yeni yl, eski sorunlar, yeni sonular Mayalar acaba yanl anlam olabilir miyiz? Mayalar bir kyametten sz ediyorlard. 2012 ylnn sonunun dnyann sonu olacan iddia ediliyorlard veya biz yle anladk. 2013 ylndayz ve dnya yerinde. Bunun iin mutluyuz ve Mayalarn yanldn gryoruz. Fakat kresel konjonktre baktmzda, Mayalarn btnyle hatal olmad sonucuna varyoruz. 2013 yl biterken, Mayalarn aslnda ok az yanldn dneceiz. Dnyada alk var, sefalet var. Salgn hastalklar yaylyor. Kibir ve ihtiras insan esir ald. Fakirlik kresel lekte artyor. lkeler iflas ediyor. Birka yl nce hi kimsenin deieceine inanmad rejimler yklyor. iddet yerkrenin her yerinde var ve artmay srdr yor. Bu tabloya baknca, Mayalarn haksz olduunu savunmak ok da mmkn deil. Belki bamza kayalar yamad, volkanlar ate ve lm kusmad, yerkabuu depremlerle karton gibi yrtlmad, ama belki de olmas beklenen, gereklemesinden endie edilen de bunlar deildi . Dnya Ekonomik Forumu muhtemelen Mayalardan ayr ve tamamen bamsz bir biimde 2013 ylna ilikin kresel riskleri ele ald raporda ben zer sonulara iaret ediyor. Belki kyamet demek ou kiiye mbalaal gelebilir. Ama yine de en hafif ifade de kyamet gibi olabilir. Dnya Ekonomik Forumu nazike kresel sistemin yanl ilediini, istikametin yanl olduunu, krizi amak iin yrtlen abalarn aslnda samimi olmadn gsteriyor. Belki bunu gstermek istemiyor, ama onun kresel risk raporundan bu sonular kyor. Rapor u gerein altn iziyor; nmzdeki on yllk zaman diliminde gelir eitsizlii artarak devam edecek. Gelir dalmndaki adaletsizlik krese l lekte daha fazla etkili olacak ve bunun yeni sonular ortaya kacak. rnein daha fazla isizlik, daha fazla siyasi fke, daha fazla fakirlik ve alk ve daha fazla atma. Kresel sistem krizi amak iin ncelii borlarn denmesine veriyor. Bylece bilgisayar ekranlarnda dijital olarak retile n veriler ve bunlardan hesaplanan borlar gerek para ile denmeye allyor. Grld kadaryla neoliberalizm sayesinde finans piyasalar kriz ile sadece kar marj orannda ve yine sadece karn artrabilecei nispette ilgileniyor. Finans piyasalar iin krizin dier boyutlar veya onl arn bu hamlelerinin sonular ok nemli deil. Kresel kriz i ie geen ve adeta halkalar gibi dizilen krizlerden meydana geliyor. Her halka kendisinden daha kk halkalar kapsyor. Her halkann bymesi veya klmesi, dierleri zerindeki basksn da artryor veya azaltyor. Kresel kriz ierisinde veya bu balk altnda yer alan en nemli ve en etkili kriz kresel mali kriz. Ama raporda ngrld gibi nmzdeki on yl boyunca gelir adaletsizliinin srecek olmas, ayn on yllk zaman diliminde kresel sistemin kresel isizlik krizi ile imtihan olacan ifade ediyor. Bunun karlnda kresel lekte fakirl ik krizi ve kanlmaz biimde gda krizi yaanacak. nk gda her eyden nce finans piyasalar asndan speklasyon olana byk olan bir saha.Eer kresel krizle mcadelede yntem deimezse nmzdeki, yakn gelecekte vahim gelimeler olabilir. nk 2007 ylnda balayan kriz halen glenerek byyor. Ayrca 2007 ylndan bu gne denenen btn yntemler sadece krizi glend irdi. O nedenle nmzdeki dnemde lkelerin kamu aklarnn byyecei ngrlebilir. Bunun neticesinde kresel krizi meydana getiren halkalardan birisi de yine borlar krizi olacak. Bu krizin Avrupada bilhassa Avro blgesinde ve Avro Krizi ad altnda kendisini gstermeye devam edecei kesin.

JAPANS DEBT
19 02 2013

The Japanese debt burden has reached a very high level. Despite all the measures taken, Japans total debt stands at 200 percent of its GDP. Things had turned into a financial nightmare in Spain when its debt stood at 70 percent of its GDP. For now the greatest concern is that Japans interest rates should rise. The international press is concerned that the rising interest rates could have devastating consequences. Some claim that there is a more important factor than the level of indebtedness of a country. According to this view, things depend on the tax income of a country. It is claimed that governments can afford to utilise at most 30 percent of their tax income to serve their debt. Therefore the interest generated by accrued debt and its proportion to tax income is a more significant indicator. If a countr ys interest payments exceed the proportion of its tax income which can be used to serve debt a system collapse and state bankruptcy becomes the case. Calculations carried out according to this assumption show that if Japans interest rates rises by 2.1 percentage points, the Japanese economy will collapse. Japan has a rapidly ageing population which relies on government bonds for saving. It is claimed that this factor renders the issue regarding the Japanese debt burden and interest rates even more crucial. If interests were to shift a little and the people were to start selling their government bonds, a very tough period may begin. There are many factors which render the debt burden of a country critical. Therefore the amount of debt alone may not be a good indicator. The distr ibution of a countrys debt burden in terms of which currencies it is held in is also significant. IMF President Christine Lagarde has listed Japan as one of the risk points threatening the global economy along with the USA and the European Union. Speaking in Davos Lagarde said if these regions or countries do not recover rapidly, there is danger on the horizon. It is certain that this is

not a casual warning. The Japanese economy has entered recession for the third time in five years. Meanwhile the Japanese Central Bank has announced that as of January 2014, it will purchase assets worth USD 150 billion per month to stimulate the economy. This decision was unexpected. Another unexpected decision was the Central Bank raising its inflation prediction to 2 percent. Japan has taken both decisions to stimulate consumption. About two weeks before this decision, Japan had declared a subsidy package of EUR 175 billion. The package is aimed at economic growth. It was announced directly by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The Tokyo government hopes that the stimulation package will provide 600,000 jobs. Another expected improvement is 2 percent increase in the GDP. According to Euronews EUR 90 billion of the 175 billion in total will be used to renew public goods such as roads, tunnels and schools. It is hoped that the wounds of the great earthquake and tsunami of 2011 will be healed. EUR 30 billion of the package is directed towards private sector investment in energy, agriculture, natural resources and healthcare. It is certain that the Yen will depreciate later in the process. Japan may be able to decrease its debt to a certain level through inflation. Furthermore the resources to be transferred to society through assets purchases may give output and consumption a boost. In such a case, the Japanese economy may undergo a new period of recovery and rising employment.

JAPONYANIN BORLARI
30 01 2013

Japonyann bor yk ok yksek bir dzeye ulat. Alnan btn nlemlere ramen, Japonyann borlarnn gayri safi yurt ii retimine oran %200 oldu. spanyada finansal facia bu oran%70e yaklanca balamt imdilik en byk endie Japonyada faizlerin artmas Uluslararas basn faizlerin artmas ihtimalinin ykc sonular retmesinden endie edi yor. Baz tahminlere gre, lkelerin borlarndan daha nemli bir ey var. O da lkelerin vergi gelirlerinin seviyesi. Bu bak asna gre lkeler vergi gelirlerinin %30unu faiz demeleri iin kullanabiliyorlar. O nedenle bor yk yerine bor yknn rettii faiz miktar ve bunun vergi gelirine oran daha nemli. Ayn noktadan hareketle, bir lke eer sz konusu oran salayamazsa sistemin k ve devletin iflas gndeme geliyor. Ayn mantkla yaplan hesaplamaya gre, Japonyann faizi eer %2,1 artarsa, Japonya ekonomisi kecek. Japonya hzla yalana n bir nfusa sahip; Japonyada nfus gelirini ve birikimini gvenceye almak iin devlet tahvilleri alyor. Bu durumun Japonyann bor yk ve faiz oran ile ilgili ok kritik bir durum tekil ettii de savunuluyor. Bu iddiaya gre, eer faizler az da olsa oynarsa ve halk elindeki devlet tahvillerini satmaya ynelirse, durdurulmas ok zor bir evre balayabilir. Bir lkenin bor ykn kritik hale getiren ok sayda da faktr var. O nedenle bazen sadece bor miktar gereken fikri veremeyebilir. rnein lkenin bor yknn para birimlerine gre dalm, dalmn kompozisyonu da nemli. Uluslararas Para Fonu Bakan Christine Lagarde Davosta kameralarn nnde Japonyay da ABD ve Avrupa Birlii ile beraber kresel ekonomiyi tehdit eden temel riskler arasnda sayd. Lagarde, eer bu blgeler ya da lkeler hzla toparlanmazsa ufukta tehditler var dedi. Lagarden bu uyary ylesine yapmad muhakkak. Japonya ekonomisi son 5 yl iinde nc kez resesyona girdi. Dier taraf tan Japonya Merkez Bankas ekonomiyi canlandrmak iin Ocak 2014ten itibaren her ay yaklak 150 milyar USD varlk alm programna balayacan aklad. Bu karar beklenmiyordu. Beklenmeyen bir dier karar ise Japonya Merkez Bankasnn enflasyon hedefini de %2ye karmas oldu. Japonya bu iki karar da tketimi artrmak iin ald. Japonya bu karardan yaklak iki hafta nce de 175 milyar EUR tutarnda bir tevik paketi ilan etti. Sz konusu paket ekonomik bymeyi hedefliyor. Paket dorudan Babakan inzo Abe tarafndan duyuruldu. Tokyo ynetimi bu tevik paketinin 600.000 kii iin istihdam salamasn umuyor. Umulan bir dier fayda ise gayrisafi yurtii retimin % 2 nispetinde artmas olarak akland. Euronewsta yer alan h abere gre, 175 milyar EUR kaynan 90 milyar EUR tutarndaki ksm yol, tnel, okul gibi eskiyen kamu mallarnn yenilenmesi iin kullanlacak. Bu kapsamda 2011de yaanan byk deprem, tsunami ve nkleer kazann yaralarnn sarlmas da hedefleniyor. Paketten enerji, tarm, doal kaynaklar ve salk alanlar bata olmak zere zel sektr yatrmlarna ise 30 milyar EUR dyor. Bu srecin devamnda Japon Yeninin deer yitirecei kesin. Japonya bu admlar uygularsa borlarnn bir ksmn enflasyon saye sinde hafifletebilir. Ayrca varlk alm ile topluma aktaraca kaynan Japonyada retime ve tketime manivela etkisi yapmasn temin edebilir. Byle bir durumda Japon ekonomisinde yeni bir canlanma evresi ve devamnda istihdam art grlebilir.

AFRICA; THE DARK FATE OF A CONTINENT

19 02 2013

Risk in Africa may grow to threaten the global system. Five wars came to an end around the world in 2011. Two armed conflicts were also resolved during the same year. Yet a few sunny days does not make summer. Violence continues around the world in Mali, Thailand, Nigeria and Pakistan. Today the continent most affected by the climate of violence is Africa, which is home to 13 wars or armed conflicts. It is followed by the Middle East with 11 wars and Asia with nine. The previous year a war and an armed conflict came to an end in Africa. They were replaced by new ones and the overall number has not changed. El Shaabaab in Somalia The situation in Somalia is dire. Although the El Shaabaab organisation may have lost some ground, the risk is still high. During the last days of December El Shaabaab lost control of the port city of Kismayo. Kismayo had been a valuable base for El Shaabaab. Despite this set back, El Shaabaab managed to consolidate its presence in the capital Mogadishu. The many action and attacks carried out by El Shaabaab stand in proof. Neighbouring Ethiopia is badly affected by the cycle of violence. The vicious circle in Somalia is a cause for concern for all countries in the region, including Ethiopia. Unrest originating in Somalia openly threatens the stability of the entire region. In the Ethiopian region of Ogaden conflict with Somalis continues. The Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) has been fighting bloody battles with the Ethiopian army. Any estimates or predictions regarding this process of violence which is closed to the rest of the world is far from being convincing. The region exists as though in an airtight container, with no possibility of leaking out information. The organisation known commonly as El Shaabaab, the full name of which means the Jihadist Youth Movement has been fighting to remove the Federal Transition Government in Somalia. Since 2011, the organisation has controlled most of southern Somalia. In regions it controls, El Shaabaab imposes sharia law. The organisation is estimated to control 15,000 armed fighters. El Shaabaab is composed of militia which the Ethiopian army has beaten and dispersed. The M23 in Congo In the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo a new rebel group named the M23 has emerged. The name of the organisation comes from the date 23 of March 2009, on which day peace talks had been concluded between the government of Congo and a rebel group. Upon the government not keeping to its promises, the rebels had reorganised and started operating under the name M23. Rwanda, which is at the moment controlled by the minority Tutsis, supports the M23 which fights the Hutu who fled to Congo after the genocide of 1994. The M23 is the heir to the Rwandan Democratic Freedom Force (FDLR) , which had been composed of militia guilty of genocide in Rwanda in 1994. The United Nations Security Council has decided to impose certain sanctions on the leadership of the M23, which is fighting the Democratic Congo government. Among the sanctions to be imposed are travel bans and freezing of assets. In the clashes between the forces of DR Congo and the M23 thousands of people have been killed. At least 700,000 people have been displaced. The M23 has captured Goma, the centre of the Nordkivu region. It has withdrawn after the government issued some promises and in the face of increasing pressure from the international community. In December negotiations between the sides recommenced. In the centre of Africa: Uganda, Sudan and the Lords Resistance Army The Ugandan army has been fighting the Lords Resistance Army (LRA) in territory which belongs to the Middle Af rican Republic. The fighting which began in 1995 saw the LRA temporarily abandon arms in 2006. LRA militants retired to their camps in Congo and Southern Sudan. Following rising tensions, clashes occurred between the Ugandan forces and the LRA in December 2008. In the new period, fighting has spread to the region beyond Ugandas borders. The fighting on land belonging to the Middle African Republic deescalated in 2012. In this context a militia group called the CJCP has taken to negotiating with the government in August. Although the government claims that the talks were successful, the CJCP denied this and claimed that talks had not been concluded. The resistance was then seen to be recovering and in November certain militia groups have taken hold of settlements in the north of the country. The capital Bangui is known to be the target of these armed groups. The Lords Resistance Army was set up in 1987. The Christian fundamentalist organisation acts mainly in Uganda and Sudan. The LRA, which is mostly interested in northern Uganda and Southern Sudan is headed by Joseph Kony , who claims to be the Gods representative. As with almo st every armed organisation or rebel group in Africa, the LRA carries out systematic violation of human rights. Murder, kidnapping, assault, sexual assault, use of child soldiers and slavery are among the crimes the LRA is charged with. The JEM, the SLM and the SPLA in Sudan Two major conflicts are occurring in Sudan. One of the organisations involved is the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). The JEM gives Islamic bases for its struggle. It sees itself as a party to the conflict in Darfur. It was set up under the leadership of Khalil Ibrahim, a doctor resident in London. The JEM has ties to the Sudanese Liberation Movement (SLM). The SLM is fighting the government of Sudan. It also fights the militia group Janjaweed which is supported by the Sudanese administration. Janjaweed is a semi-official militia group which operates in Darfur in western Sudan and in eastern Chad. Janjaweed militia are accused of attacking rebels as well as local people when employed in suppressing uprisings. Janjaweed is used to intervene in areas and strike those groups which are not accessible to the regular army. It is claimed that Janjaweed attacks villages and tribes when it suits its daily needs. On its eastern front the JEM has contacts with a number of organisations operating in eastern Sudan and on the Eritrean border. When its eastern front signed a peace treaty with central government, JEM lost its Eritrean contacts. On the 20th of January 2006, the JEM, alongside organisations such as the SLM joined the Western Sudanese Union of Revolutionary Forces. In October 2007 it attacked an oil facility built in partnership with the Chinese. On the 11th of May 2008, it carried out an significant attack in Khartoum. In this attack near the capital, 222 people were killed. The JEM had signed a ceasefire with the Sudanese government in February 2010. On the 25 th of December 2011, the Sudanese army announced that while preparing a coup dtat, Khalil Ibrahim had been killed in Wad Banda, near North Kordofan. On the 26 th of January 2012, his brother Gebril Ibrahim took his position. The JEM continues to fight. During the fighting in Libya, Ibrahim and his men fought on the side of Moammar Gaddafi. The SLM is seen as the organisation with the most members and influence in the region. The SLM is sometimes referred to as SLA. The SLM is the armed wing of the Sudanese Freedom Front. The name of the organisation was changed as the Sudanese Liberation Movement from Darfur Liberation Movement in 2003. The organisation is headed by the Sudanese lawyer Abdulvahid Muhammed Nur. The organisation has among its members officers from the Fur tribe who previously served in the Sudanese and Chadian armies. Another significant organisation in Sudan is the Sudanese Peoples Liberation Front (SPLA). This organisation is very influen tial in Southern Sudan. In the civil war which lasted from 1983 to 2005, the SPLA fought the government in the south of Sudan. In this process, the organisation joined the National Democratic Alliance, which constituted the main opposition. The Alliance signed a peace treaty with the Sudanese government in January 2005. John Garang headed the SPLA until his death on the 30th of July 2005. Leadership then passed to Salva Kiir Mayardit.

Throughout 2012 Sudan has fought the JEN in Darfur. The JEM has grown enough to be able to carry out major attacks in northern Darfur. Following South Sudans independence in July 2011, Sudan has had to fight the SPLA-N in South Kordofan and the Blue Nile regions. The SPLAN is known as the northern wing of the South Sudan based SPLA. Meanwhile the SPLA continues to fight South Sudan. Meanwhile tensions between Sudan and South Sudan run high. The Boko Haram in Nigeria The Boko Haram is becoming more effective in northern Nigeria. The Boko Haram wants to expel Christians from the country. It frequently launches bloody attacks. In the most recent attack by Boko Haram, 200 people were killed. Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan announced his suspicion that the Boko Haram might have sympathisers in the state and political structure as well as in the army. The Boko Haram was founded in 2002 to establish sharia order in Nigeria and set up its first armed camp in 2004 on the Nigerian border. The Boko Haram is known to have ties with the Taleban and al-Qaeda. Boko Haram has been launching attacks since 2004. In 2011 alone, Boko Haram has been responsible for the deaths of more than 450 people. And others... In 2012 in Senegal a thaw was experienced in the relations between the state and the independence seeking MFDC. Clashes nevertheless continue. In Burundi, the fighting between government forces and many rebel groups began again in 2011. The fighting in 2012 took place both in Burundi and on DR Congo territory. Unrest grew in Mali in 2012. Groups seeking independence for the north of the country became very influential. The Tuareg are continuing to resist despite domestic and French pressure. There is of course more going on. In Egypt the crisis continues. It is impossible for instability in Egypt to not have ramifications in its region. Tunisia is still unstable. Algeria may become so. In Libya the post-Gaddafi period has developed in excess of the worst predictions. Meanwhile in the east African state of Eritrea, a group of soldiers have surrounded the Communications Ministry. Soldiers who arrived at the ministry building in the capital Asmara with two tanks have called on government to release political prisoners. Eritrean government sources have announced that this did not constitute a coup attempt. Tensions are running high in Algeria. The latest terrorist attack is an indicator of this. Terrorists who attacked a natural gas plant took many hostages. The army launched a bloody operation against the natural gas plant where the hostages were held. In the operation which deployed special forces and assault helicopters, 23 hostages and 32 rebels were killed. The Algerian Ministry of the Interior announced that a total of 685 workers at the natural gas plant, 107 of them foreign citizens had been rescued. The dead rebels were identified to have come to Algeria from other countries. It was claimed that the fighters were led by Mohtar bin Mohtar. According to reporting byEuronews Mohtar bin Mohtar had travelled to Afghanistan in 1989 and was trained in al-Qaida camps. He returned to Algeria in 1993 to organise rebels. When the Islamic Maghreb al-Qaeda revoked his tile the Emir of the Sahel, bin Mohtar left the organisation and formed the Those who Sign in Blood Brigade. A new Period and a new Concept: Africanistan It is clear to see that Africa has entered a period of Afghanisation. How much influence the great global rivalry over Africa has an impact on this is unknown. Whether this has anything to do with the struggle to control the continents rich underground resources, no one can know. It is not possible to know whether the process feeds from the conflict over the distribution of rich agricultural land for use in agriculture and bio-fuels. Who can claim that these rival organisations act under the influence of major global rivals? But just as in Afghanistan which stands in the middle of major oil and gas pipeline projects, instability has also taken hold of Africa. We may soon come to hear a concept such as the African Spring. In Africa international terrorist organisations support and coordinate local and regional organisations. As a result of the weakness of central governments, armed organisations and other illegal groups have gained a lot of ground. Major risk regions and instability sources are developing, especially in the Bay of Aden and in the Sahel, partly in North Africa and partly in the sub-Sahara. The Tuareg separatist movement in Mali and the developing Ansar Dine and MUJAO organisations are an indicator. The MUJAO organisation is known as an al-Qaeda fraction. The Islamic Maghreb (Aqim) is effective in Algeria and is also in contact with armed groups like the El Shaabaab in Somalia. It is claimed that organisations such as Aqim procure funds through drugs smuggling and tourist kidnapping. US media and think-tanks concentrate the most on Boko Haram, El Shaabaab and Aqim in Africa. The aid and solidarity among these organisations, their global information networks, the great natural wealth of Africa, the weakness of central governments and the internal dynamics of Africa seem set to make everything worse. In such a fight the USA enjoys the advantages of high technology such as unmanned aircraft and satellites. This advantage may not be enough to overcome the challenge. The sensitive network of the USA in the region stretches from Mauritania to Burkina Faso, from the Seychelles to South Sudan, from Uganda to Kenya and from Ethiopia to Djibouti. The Africom is indeed an important part of the US army. The Reaper and Predator unmanned aircraft can strike heavy blows against terrorism. But can it kill terrorism? The answer is not promising. The difference in arms, equipment, training and personnel between US forces and local Somali groups in 1993 was as wide as it is today. In 1993, the USA experienced disaster in Somalia.

AFRKA; KARA KITA, KARA KADER

30 01 2013

Afrikadaki risk kresel sistemi tehdit edecek boyuta varabilir. 2011 ylnda dnyada be sava sona erdi. Ayn yl iki silahl atma da son buldu. Fakat birtakm baarlar kazanlmas, iin bittii anlamna da gelmiyor. Maliden Taylanda, Nijeryadan Pakistana kadar iddet devam ediyor. Bugn dnyada iddet ikliminin en ok egemen olduu kta Afrika; Afrikada 13 sava ve silahl atma var. Onu 11 sava ile Orta Dou ve 9 sava ile Asya takip ediyor. Afrikada nceki yl bir sava ve bir silahl atma sonlandrld. Ama onlarn yerini de yenileri ald ve say deimedi. Somalide Al Shaabaab Somalide durum hala ok kt Al Shaabaab gerilese de, risk hala ok yksek. Al Shaabaab Eyll aynn son gnlerinde liman k enti Kismayo zerindeki denetimini yitirdi. Kismayo kenti Al Shaabaab iin ok deerli bir s konumundayd. Ama Al Shaabaab bu kaybna ramen, yine de bakent Mogadiuda varln artrmay baard. Al Shaabaabn imza att ok sayda eylem ve saldr buna kant olarak gs terilebilir. Somalinin komusu Etiyopya da bu iddet sarmalndan ok etkileniyor. Somalinin ierisine dt ksr dng, btn blge lkeleri iin olduu gibi Etiyopya iin de kayg nedeni. nk Somali kaynakl huzursuzluklar btn blgenin istikrarn ak biimde tehdit ediyo r. Ogaden blgesinde Somalililer ile irtibatl biimde atmalar sryor. Ogaden Ulusal zgrlk Cephesi (ONLF) ile Etiyopya ordusu arasnda kanl arpmalar oluyor. Dnyann geriye kalan ksmndan gizlice yaanan iddet srecinin gelecei iin de, mevcut durumu iin de her trl tahmin inandrc olmaktan uzak. nk blge adeta hava szdrmaz bir fanusun iin de, hibir enformasyona eriim olana yok. Ad Mcahit Genlik Hareketi anlamna gelen ve ksaca Al Shaabaab diye tannan rgt, Somali'deki Federal Gei Hkmeti'ni ortadan kaldrmak iin savayor. rgt 2011 ylndan bu tarafa Somalinin gney kesiminin byk ksmn denetimi altnda tutuyor. Al Shaabaab egemen olduu blgelerde eriat uyguluyor. rgtn 15.000 civarnda silahl adam olduu tahmin ediliyor. Al Shaabaab Etiyopya ordus unun yenip datt milislerden meydana geliyor. Kongoda M23 Kongo Demokratik Cumhuriyetinin dousunda M23 adnda yeni bir isyanc grup ortaya kt. rgt adn 23 Mart 2009 tarihinden alyor. Bu tarihte Kongo ile muhalif bir isyanc grup arasnda bar grmeleri yaplm ve sonulandrlmt. Ancak Kongo ynetiminin verdii szleri tutmamas zerinde isyanclar yeniden rgtlenmi ve M23 ad ile faaliyete gemiti. Hlihazrda aznlk Tutsilerin idaresinde olan Rua nda, 1994'te kendilerine soykrm uyguladktan sonra iktidar kaybederek komu Demokratik Kongo'ya kaan Hutularla mcadele eden M23 rgtne destek veriyor. M23 daha nce Ruandada 1994 ylnda soykrm suu ileyen milislerden kurulan Ruanda zgrlk Demokratik Gleri (FDLR) devam olma zelliine sahip. Birlemi Milletler Gvenlik Konseyi, Demokratik Kongo hkmetine kar silahl mcadele veren M23 liderlerine eitli ambargolar uygulama karar ald. Uygulanacak ambargo maddeleri arasnda seyahat yasa ve hesaplarnn dondurulmas var. Demo kratik Kongo Cumhuriyeti ve M23 rgt arasnda kan atmalarda binlerce insan hayatn kaybetti. En az 700.000 kii evlerini terk etti . M23 getiimiz Kasm aynda Nordkivu kentinin merkezi Gomay ele geirdi. Ama hkmetin baz szler vermesinin ve uluslararas toplumun basksnn artmas zerine geri ekildi. Aralk aynda taraflar arasnda mzakereler yeniden balad. Afrikann ortasnda; Uganda, Sudan ve Tanrnn Direni Ordusu Uganda ordusu bir sredir Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti topraklarnda Tanrnn Direni Ordusu (LRA) ile arpyor. 1995 ylnda balayan atmalarda LRA 2006 ylnda geici olarak silah brakt. LRA militanlar da bunun zerine Kongo ve Gney Sudandaki kamplarna ekildile r. Ama gerilimin yeniden ykselmesinin ardndan Aralk 2008de Uganda kuvvetleri ile LRA arasnda atmalar yeniden balad. Fakat yeni dnemde -ncesinden farkl olarak- atmalar Ugandann dna da taarak blgeye yaylma eilimi gsterdi. Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti topraklarnda da yaanan atmalar 2012 ylnda hafifledi. Bu kapsamda CJCP adl militan grubu getiimiz Austos aynda hkmet ile masaya oturdu ve bar grmeleri yapt. Her ne kadar hkmet mzakerelerin baarl tamamlandn ifade etse de, CJCP bunu ret etti ve sonular tanmadn aklad. Bunun devamnda direnite yeniden bir hareketlenme grld ve getiimiz Kasm aynda baz militan gruplar lkenin kuzeyindeki baz yerleimlere girmeyi baardlar. Silahl gruplarn hedefinde bakent Bangui olduu biliniyor Tanrnn Direni Ordusu (LRA), 1987'de kuruldu. Hristiyan kimliini ne karan rgt arlkl olarak Uganda'da ve Sudan'da faaliyet gsteriyor. Daha ok Ugandann kuzeyi ve Sudann gneyi ile ilgilenen LRA, kendisini Tanrnn szcs ilan eden Joseph Kony tarafndan idare ediliyor. LRA da hemen her Afrikal silahl grup ve isyan hareketi gibi, sistemli biimde insan haklar ihlali yapyor. Cinayet, karm a, yaralama, cinsel saldr, ocuk askerler ve kleletirme LRA rgt ile de anlan sular olarak biliniyor. Sudanda JEM, SLM ve SPLA Sudanda iki byk atma bir arada var. rgtlerden birisi Adalet ve Eitlik Hareketi (Hareket -i Adil wal Musavah-JEM). JEM mcadelesini slami temellere dayandryor. JEM kendisini Darfurdaki ihtilafn taraf kabul ediyor. Londrada ikamet eden bir doktor olan Halil brahim nderliinde kuruldu. JEMin Sudan zgrlk Hareket (SLM) ile ibirlii var. SLM Sudan ynetimine kar savayor. SLM Sudan ynetiminin destekledii milis grubu Cancevit (Janjaweed) ile de atyor. Cancevit Darfur'da (bat Sudan) ve ad'n dou kesimlerinde faaliyet gsteren yar resmi kkenli silahl milis grubu. Cancevit isyan bastrma giriimlerine katldktan sonra hem isyanc gruplarla hem de halka atmakla sulanyor. Cancevit, ordu kuvvetlerinin mdahale edemedii yerlere ve mcadele edemedii unsurlara saldryor. Cancevitin gnlk karlarna gre kylere ve kabilelere saldrd da iddia ediliyor. JEMin Dou Cephesi kapsamnda, Sudann dousunda ve Eritre snrna faaliyet gsteren bir dizi rgtle temas var. Dou Cephesi merkezi hkmetle bar anlamas imzalaynca, JEM Eritre ile irtibatn yitirdi. 20 Ocak 2006da JEM, Sudan zgrlk Ordusu (SLM) gibi dier isyanc rgtlerle birlikte Bat Sudan Devrimci Gler Birliine katld. Ekim 2007de in ortaklyla alan bir petrol tesisine saldr dzenledi. 11 Mays 2008de Hartuma nemli bir saldr dzenledi. rgtn 2008 ylnda bakent yaknnda dzenledii saldrlarda 222 kii hayatn kaybetti. JEM ubat 2010da Sudan Hkmeti ile atekes imzalad. 25 Aralk 2011de Sudan ordusu darbe hazrlndaki Halil brahimin Kuyzey Kordofan yaknlarndaki Wad Bandada ldrldn aklad. Kardei Gibril brahim 26 Ocak 2012de aabeyinin yerini ald. JEM mcade leyi srdryor. Hareketin lideri brahim ve birlikleri, Libyadaki atmalar srasnda Muammer Kaddafiye destek iin savat. Sudan Kurtulu Hareketi (SLM) blgede en ok yeye ve yandaa sahip olan rgt olarak grlyor. SLM bazen SLA diye de tann yor. SLM Sudan zgrlk Cephesinin silahl kanad olarak kabul gryor. 2003 ylna kadar Darfur zgrlk Hareketi olan rgtn ismi daha sonra Sudan zgrlk Hareketi olarak deitirildi. rgtn liderliini Sudanl bir avukat olan Abdulvahid Muhammed Nur yapyor. rgtn bnyesinde Fur kabilesinden, daha nce Sudan ve ad ordularnda grev yapm olan subaylar yer alyor. Sudanda dikkat eken bir dier rgt ise Sudan Halk Kurtulu Ordusu, SPLA. Bu rgt Gney Sudanda ok etkili... SPLA Sudan Halk Kurtulu Hareketinin askeri kanadn olarak tannyor. SPLA, 1983 ylndan 2005 ylna kadar sren i savata, Sudan Hkmetine kar lkenin gney blgesinde mcadele etti. Bu srete rgt ana muhalefet grubu olan Ulusal Demokratik ttifaka katld. ttifak Ocak 2005te Sudan hkmeti ile bir bar anlamas imzalad. rgt liderliini 30 Temmuz 2005 tarihinde lnceye kadar John Garang yapt. Liderlii daha sonra Salva K iir Mayardit stlendi.

2012 yl boyunca Sudan hem Darfur blgesinde JEM ile att. JEM Kuzey Darfura byk saldrlar dzenleyecek hale geldi. Sudan Gney Kordofan ve Mavi Nil blgelerinde de, Gney Sudann Temmuz 2011de bamszlndan sonra ikinci bir cephede SPLA -N ile arpmaya balad. SPLA-N, daha nce kurulan Gney Sudan kkenli SPLA rgtnn kuzeyde faaliyet gsteren yaps olarak biliniyor. Bu arada SPLA da Gney Sudan ile arpmaya devam ediyor. Dier taraftan Sudan ile Gney Sudan arasnda da gerilim devam ediyor. Nijeryada Boko Haram Nijeryann kuzeyinde Boko Haram rgt giderek daha etkin hale geliyor. Boko Haram lkeden Hristiyanlar srmeye alyor. Boko Haram sklkla kanl eylemler dzenliyor. Boko Haramn son saldrsnda 200den fazla insan hayatn kaybetti. Devlet Bakan Good luck Jonathan Boko Haramn devlet ve siyaset ierisinde, ayrca orduda sempatizanlar ve yardmclar olduundan phelendiini aklad. Boko Haram, 2002 ylnda Nijeryada eriat dzeni kurmak amacyla kuruldu ve ilk silahl kampn 2004 ylnda Nijer snrnda kurdu. Boko Haramn Taliban ve El Kaide ile ilikili olduu biliniyor. Boko Haram 2004 ylndan bu yana saldrlar dzenliyor. Boko Haram sadece 2011 ylnda 450den fazla insan ldrd. Ve Dierleri Senegalde devlet ile bamszlk isteyen MFDC arasndaki ilikilerde 2012 ylnda yumuama yaand. Ama yine de atmalar devam ediyor. Burundide devlet ile ok sayda silahl isyanc grup arasndaki atmalar 2011 ylnda yeniden alevlendi. Bu atmalar 2012 ylnda hem Burundide hem de Kongo Demokratik Cumhuriyetinde yaand. 2012 ylnda Malide de karklklar artt. lkenin kuzeyi iin bamszlk isteyen gruplar ok etkili hale geldi. Tuaregler d basklara ve Fransaya ramen direnii srdryor. Elbette bunlardan ok daha fazlas var. Msrda buhran sryor. Msrda istikrar eksikliinin blgeye yansmalarnn olmamas mmkn deil. Tunus henz istikrarl deil. Cezayirde istikrarszlk riski sryor. Libyada ise Kaddafi sonras d nem, beklenenden ve en ktmser tahminlerden dahi daha kt geliti. Bu arada Dou Afrika lkelerinden Eritrede bir grup asker, letiim Bakanln kuatt. Bakent Asmaradaki bakanlk binasna iki tank eliinde gelen askerler, hkmete lkedeki siyasi mahkumlar serbest brakmas ars yapt. Eritre hkmet kaynaklar, bunun bir darbe giriimi olmadn aklad. Ayrca Cezayirde de gerginlik yksek. Yaanan son terrist saldr da bunu gsteriyor. Bir doalgaz tesisini saldran terristler, ok sayda rehineyi uzun sre ellerinde tuttular. Ordu rehine krizinin yaand doalgaz tesisine kanl bir operasyon dzenledi. zel hareket timlerinin dzenledii ve saldr helikopterlerinin de kullanld operasyonda ilk belirlemelere gre, 23 rehine ve 32 isyanc hayatn kaybetti. Cezayir ileri Bakanl, zel timlerinin, doalgaz tesisinde alan 107si yabanc uyruklu, toplam 685 kiiyi kurtardn aklad. l ele geirilen isyanclarn Cezayir dnda farkl lkelerden de geldii belirlendi. Eylemcilerin liderinin Muhtar bin Muhtar olduu iddia edildi. Muhtar bin Muhtar, Euronewsun verdii habere gre, 1989 ylnda Afganistana giderek El Kaide kamplarnda eitim ald. Cezayir asll olan bin Muhtar, 1993 ylnda Cezayire dnerek isyanclar rgtledi. Muhtar bin Muhtar Sahelin Emiri nvan slami Marip El Kaide tarafndan geri alnnca rgtten ayrlp Kanla mza Atanlar Tugayn kurdu. Yeni Dnem, Yeni Kavram; Afrikanistan Aka grld gibi Afrika, Afganistanlama srecine girdi. Bunda kara ktada yaanan byk kresel rekabetin etkisi var mdr, bilinmez. Acaba bunda Afrikann zengin yer alt kaynaklarnn paylam mcadelesi var mdr, kimse bilemez. Acaba bunda Afrikann zengin tarm arazilerinin hem tarm hem de biyo yakt iin kaplmas mcadelesi var mdr, elbette kimsenin bilmesi mmkn deil. Zaten kim bu rgtlerin aslnda byk kresel rakip devletlerin etkisinde olduunu iddia edebilir ki? Ama tpk byk boru hatlar gzerghlar projelerinin ortasnda duran Afganistanda olduu gibi, istikrarszlk rzgr Afrikay da etkisine ald. Belki yakn zamanda Afrika Bahar ve saire bir kavram da duyabiliriz. Afrikada uluslararas terrist rgtler, yerel ve blgesel rgtleri destekliyor ve koordine ediyor. Merkezi hkmetlerin za fiyet gstermesi ve gcnn yetmemesi sonucunda, silahl rgtler ve dier benzeri yasad gruplar iin ok geni ve serbest bir alan elde ettiler. Bata Aden Krfezi ve Sahel olmak zere -buna ksmen Magrep ve ksmen Sahra Alt da dhil- ok byk risk blgeleri ve istikrarszlk kaynaklar geliiyor. Malide ortaya kan ayrlk Tuareg hareketi ve burada gelien Ansar Dine ve MUJAO rgt bunun bir gstergesi. MUJAO rgt El Kaidenin Magrep blgesine ilikin bir fraksiyonu olarak tannyor. slami Magrep (Aqim) byk lde Cezayirde etkili ve ayrca Somalideki Al Shaabaab rgt gibi silahl gruplarla irtibat halinde. Aqim gibi rgtlerin uyuturucu kaakl ve turist karma eylemleri ile gelir temin ettii de iddia ed iliyor. ABD basn ve dnce kurulular Afrikada en ok Boko Haram, Al Shaabaab ve Aqim zerinde duruyor. rgtler arasndaki yardmlama ve dayanma, kresel enformasyon alar, Afrikadaki byk yer alt ve yerst zenginlikleri, merkezi hkmetlerin zafiyeti ve Afrikann i dengeleri her eyi Afganistandakinden de daha beter hale getirecek gibi ABD bu mcadelede yksek teknolojik donanmlarn, insansz hava aralarnn ve uydularn getirdii byk avantaja sahip... Ama bu avantaj byk sorunun stesinden gelmeyi garanti etmeyebilir. ABDnin blgedeki hassas a Moritanyadan Burina Fasoya, Seyellerde n Gney Sudana, Ugandadan Kenyaya, Etiyopyadan Cibutiye kadar her yeri kapsyor. Africom Komutanl gerekten de ABD ordusunun ok nemli bir blm. ABDnin elindeki Reaper ve Predator insansz hava aralar muhakkak terre sert darbeler vurabilir. Ama acaba terr ldrebilir mi? Aslnda bunun cevab iin ktmser olmak gerekiyor. nk ABD ordusu ile Somalili mahalli direnii gruplar arasnda silah, donanm, eitim ve personel fark 1993 ylnda da, imdi olduundan ok farkl deildi. ABD 1993te Somalide facia yaad .

IS THERE GLOBAL PEACE?

19 02 2013

We used to call it world peace. The phrase was most often used by entrants to world beauty contests. Then globalisation picked up pace and the term changed to global peace. But what is to be understood from world peace or global peace? Does everyone mean the same things by these terms? More importantly is there a climate of peace? It might be better to start with the conceptual framework. Global peace of course signifies the establishment of an ideal order. With global peace, it is assumed that all wars and conflicts in the world would cease. This concept therefore denotes something which is not the case, but is hoped will become the case and ought to be the case. Peace for whom? That all people should love each other is not possible. Similarly there is no possibility that all opposition can be resolved. Justice, freedom, peace, right, chance and fate do not mean the same thing for everyone. Conflicts may arise from clashing rights to live. Rights to existence can lead to contradiction. Of course the reason for political institutions and science is to establish a better world and to minimise conflicts and contradictions. Although this perspective contains great hope and optimism, it is far from being realistic. A matter of perspective The ideal roots of the concept of world peace go back to messianic belief. According to various forms of this belief the me ssiah returns to earth and ushers in a thousand years of peace. The arrival of the messiah marks the salvation of the world. According to this view, which is heavily influenced by Mitra and Pagan culture good beats evil, dualism ends and the values represented by the messiah rule on earth. In this respect, world peace may not signify the same values for everyone. Some thinkers have argued that peace, tolerance and respect are the pillars of world peace. While this view deserves respect, it is hard to call it realistic. Those thinkers who claim that peace, tolerance and respect ought to propose how these can be achieved. Is there a magical formula for peace? Universal formulae cannot be claimed in discussing world peace. For example there is a claim that nation states are obstacles in the way of world peace with their uncompromising and belligerent politics. But there are nation states who have not participated in any wars since their establishment. The thesis that the inclusion of more than one national identity under the same roof contributes to compromising attitudes and world peace. The European Union is often given as an example. But the example of Yugoslavia should not be forgotten. Of course, while peace, tolerance and respect may seem to form a magic triangle, religious fanaticism can reinterpret these concepts and manipulate their meaning. In world politics countries have tended to view all countries as belonging to two camps, with a dualistic approach. During the Cold War there were the NATO countries and the Warsaw Pact countries. Later there were the good coalition of the willing opposed to rogue states. Injecting democracy? Meanwhile the idea that democracy should be strengthened around the world for there to be true world peace has gathered pace. That democratic countries will not fight each other has come to be an accepted and respected idea. Efforts for regime change in anti-democratic countries increased. Colourful revolutions followed. Thus it was hoped that the extent of democracy, hand in hand with the free market economy, would increase across the world through transformation in countries injected with the democracy virus. In countries where the injection was unsuccessful there was military intervention. Those countries infected with the democracy virus are yet to complete their evolution and transformation and at the moment look more like mutants than clones, which is the best they can become for now. A more realistic definition may that world peace is the ability of a person, goods, services and labour in one part of the world being able to access another part of the world according to set rules and without danger. This definition is beneficial in that it adds to the previous list of principles including respect and tolerance a series of imperatives such as co-habitation, co-existence and mutual interdependence. What does liberal thought say? The liberal worldview contains some beneficial ideas for world peace which must be considered. According to the liberals the establishment of world peace requires the encouragement of liberal principles in the economy and in politics to be encouraged around the world alongside various liberties and liberal norms. If liberal values become established at the national and international level, results will soon follow. Countries and societies will interact more intensively. International organisations can support more international cooperation at the regional and global level. Governance and the protection of human rights will be achieved. World peace can be achieved through the international system acting together at the global level rather than through unilateral actions of states. That world peace requires the shared effort of world states to be established and sustained is certain. An international organisation thus has to take the helm. Under todays circumstances, one would think that the United Nations is the most suitable organisation for the task. Democratic countries may act with other democratic countries to increase the effectiveness and weight of the United Nations around the world and thus provide a new and stable international political atmosphere. In this framework, world peace may be established. Today difficulties in accessing food and drinking water, cybercrime, fanaticism of every creed, terrorism, economic crisis, environmental disasters and climate change directly and indirectly threaten world peace. Problems at a global level require solutions at a global level. World Peace in 2013 2012 was not a good year for world peace. 2013 does not look promising either. Looking at the numbers, we might come up with some optimistic conclusions. The number of wars and armed conflicts have fallen slightly in 2012 compared to 2011. The number of armed conflicts has fallen by three to 34. The number of wars has dropped from 25 to 24.

The war record for recent history still belongs to 1992, which had 55 wars. Until 2010 the number of wars declined to 23. If we look at this long term trend we may conclude that the world is a much better place than it was in 1992. The number of armed conflicts had peaked at 63 in 1993. This number fell to 33 in 2010. The number of wars and armed conflicts in the world rose in 1997, 2005 and 2011. Optimism is everybodys right, especially of those who want peace. But whether these numbers rise or fall, to talk of global peace today would only be denial.

KRESEL BARI VAR MI, YOK MU?

30 01 2013

Eskiden dnya bar diyorduk. Bunu da en ok dnya gzellik yarmasnda glmseyen lke gzellerinin sorulara verdikleri cevaplarda duyuyorduk. Sonra kreselleme hzland ve onun adn kresel bar diye deitirdik. Ama dnya bar ve kresel bar denildiinde ne anlalyor? Acaba herkes ayn eyden mi sz ediyor? Daha nemlisi sz konusu bar iklimi gerekten var m? Herhalde burada meseleye ncelikle kavramn anlam erevesinden yaklamakta yarar olabilir. Kresel bar denildiinde elbette ilk olarak ideal bir dzen kurulmas fikri akla gelir. Kresel bar olduunda dnyada btn savalarn bitmi ve btn atmalarn sona ermi olaca varsaylr. Grld gibi bu kavram gerekte olmayan, ama olmas umulan ve olmas iin aba harcanmas gereken bir durum olarak deerlendirilebilir. Bar, kimin iin? Ama kukusuz btn insanlarn birbirini sevmesi ihtimal dhilinde deildir. Ayn bak asndan devamla btn ztlklarn uzlaas olasl da yoktur. nk adalet, zgrlk, bar, hak, ans ve kader gibi mefhumlar herkes iin ayn anlama gelmez. ou zaman yaama haklar dahi atabilir. Varolma haklar dahi eliki retebilir. Elbette siyasetin kurumunun hedefi ve bilimin varlk sebebi daha iyi bi r dnya kurmak ve elikileri, atmalar en aza indirmektir. Ama bu bak as byk bir umut ve iyimserlik ierse de, gerekilikten uzaktr. Kime gre, neye gre? Esas olarak dnya bar kavramnn fikir kkeni Mesihin yeryzne dnecei inanna dayanr. Bu inana g re Mesih dnyaya dner ve dnyada bin yl srecek bir bar dnemi balar. Mesihin gelii dnyann kurtuluudur. Mitra kltrnn ve Pagan deerlerinin youn etkisinde biimlenen bu gre gre, iyilik ktl yener, dualizm sona erer ve Mesihin temsil ettii kavramlar, olgular btn dnyaya bin yl iin hkim olur. O nedenle, bu zeminde ve anlam erevesinde dnya bar herkes iin ayn deerde olmayabilir Dnya bar kavram baz dnrler tarafndan bar, hogr, sayg bir arada dnya barn tayan stunlar olarak kabul ediliyor. Bu bak as elbette saygy hak ediyor. Ama yine de gereki olduunu savunmak bir hayli zor. nk dnya bar iin bar, hogr, sayg lemesinin art olduunu dnen dnrler,bunlarn nasl tesis edileceini de nermeliler. Barn sihir forml var m? Genel olarak dnya bar kavramndan sz edilirken, kesin bir formln varl iddia edilemez. rnein milli devletlerin dnya bar nnde engel olduunu, onlarn uzlamazl ve atmac siyaset algsn glendirdii iddias vardr. Ama kuruluundan bu yana hibir savaa katlmayan milli devletler de vardr. Birden ok milli kimliin bir at altnda ve ortak zeminde uzlamasnn dnya bar kavramna ve genel olarak uzlamacla katk salad tezi de savunulur. Buna ispat olarak Avrupa Birlii gsterilir. Ama byle bir durumda Yugoslavya rneini de asla unutmamak gerekir. Kukusuz bar, hogr ve sayg sihirli bir gen gibi grnse de, dinsel fanatizm bu kavramlar yeniden yorumlayp, ierdii gerek anlamn deerini drebilir. Keza dnya siyasetinde daima lkeler dualist bir bakla dier btn lkeleri iki kampta grdler. Souk Sava dneminde NATO ve Varova Pakt vard. Bat kamp ile dou kamp demir perde zerinden mcadele ettiler. Daha sonra da gnll, iyi devletler ve karlarnda da haydut devletler vard. Demokrasi enjeksiyonu? Bu srete yeryznde gerek anlamda bar olmas iin demokrasi kavramnn kuvvetlenmesi gerektii fikri glendi. Demokrat ik lkelerin birbiri ile savamayaca dncesi byk destek ve sayg grmeye balad. Bylece anti demokratik lkelerde rejim deiiklii iin abalar artt. Srecin devamnda renkli devrimler yaand. Bylece demokrasi virs enjekte edilen lkelerde yaanacak deiimin, dnyada demokrasinin -ve aslnda serbest pazar ekonomisinin, ikisinin bir btn olarak beraber -snrlarn geniletmesi umuldu.Demokrasi enjeksiyonunun fayda etmedii lkelerde de d askeri mdahaleler yaand. Bu evrede virs enjekte edilen lkeler henz evrimini ve dnmn tamamlad ve bugn olabileceklerinin en iyisi- birer klondan ok mutant grnmndeler, ama sre devam ediyor. yle bir tanmlama ok daha gereki olabilir; Dnya bar dnyann herhangi bir yerindeki kii, mal, hizmet ve emein dnyann baka herhangi bir yerine sabit kurallara gre ve tehlikeye girmeden ulaabilmesidir. Bu tanmlamann daha yararl olduu bir gerek; nk bylece ortaya kan anlam erevesi, daha nce ngrlen sayg ve hogr gibi ilkelere, birlikte yaamak, birlikte varolmak ve karlkl bamllk gibi bir dizi zorunluluklar da ekliyor. Liberal dnce ne diyor? Liberal dnya gr dnya bar iin muhakkak gz nnde tutulmas gereken faydal tehislere sahiptir. Liberallere gre dnya barnn kurulmas iin btn dnyada siyasi ve iktisadi zgrlk ilkelerin, serbestliin ve liberal normlarn tevik edilmesi gerek ir. O sayede liberal deerler btn dnyada milli ve uluslararas dzeyde yerleik hale gelirse bunun sonular ksa srede alnr. rnei dnya devletler sistematiinde karlkl bamllk artar. lkeler ve toplumlar daha youn etkileim ierisine girerler. Uluslararas kurulular daha fazla blgesel ve kresel, oktarafl uluslararas ibirliini desteklerler. Bu sayede de ynetiim ve insan haklarnn korunmas baaryla salanr.

Esasen dnya bar, devletlerin tek balarna teebbsleri ile deil, uluslararas sistemin kresel lekte ortak harekete ekmesiyle salanabilir. Dnya barnn yeryzndeki devletler topluluunun ortak abasyla salanabilecei ve srdrlebilecei kesin. O nedenle uluslararas bir kurulu bu sorumluluu stlenmeli. Bugnk artlara baknca, Birlemi Milletler rgtnn bu greve en yakn ve en uygun kurulu olduu varsaylabilir. nk demokrasi ile idare edilen devletler dier devletlerle ibirlii iinde hareket ederek, Birlemi Milletlerin dnya apnda arln ve etkinliini artrarak, bu sayede yeni ve kalc bir uluslararas siyasi iklim tesis edebilir. Bunun sonucunda dnya bar -bu anlam erevesine gretemin edebilir. Bugn iin gdaya veya ime suyuna eriimde zorluk, siber sular, her trl fanatizm, terrizm, ekonomik krizler, evre felaketleri, iklim deiiklii dorudan veya dolayl olarak dnya barn tehdit ediyor. Kresel mahiyetteki bu sorunlarla kresel lekte mcadele gerekir. Dnya Bar ve 2013 2012 yl dnya bar iin iyi bir yl deildi. 2013 yl da dnya bar iin iyi bir yl olmayacak. Aslnda rakamlara bak p iyimser birtakm sonulara varmak mmkn olabilir. nk dnyadaki savalarn ve silahl atmalarn saysnda 2012 ylnda 2011 ylna gre hafif bir azalma var. Silahl atmalarn says adet azald ve 34e indi. Savalarn says da 25ten 24e indi. Halen yakn tarihinin sava rekoru 55 sava ile 1992 ylna ait. 2010 ylna kadar savalarn says 23e indi. Elbette bu uzun z aman dilimini esas alrsak ve buna gre hesaplama yaparsak, dnyann bugn 1992 ylna gre ok daha iyi bir yer olduu sonucuna varabiliriz. Nihayetinde silahl atmalarn says da 1993 ylnda 63 ile rekor dzeye kt. Ama bu say 2010 ylna kadar 33e indi. Dnyada savalar ve silahl atmalar 1997, 2005 ve 2011 yllarnda artt. Kukusuz iyimser olmak herkesin hakk, zellikle bar isteyenlerin. Ama yine de -rakamlar azalsa da, artsa dabugn dnyada kresel lekte bir bar halinden sz etmek, sadece kendimizi aldatmak olur.

IS THERE A GLOBAL CRISIS?

19 02 2013

It might be better to ask the question as follows: whose crisis is this? These questions may seem belated. But they must be answered, late as they are. For the global situation might be much different than we think it is. Resting on a single point of view may have poor consequences. We might easily come up with the following diagnosis, looking at the process we are going through: a global crisis began in 2007. The crisis has caused tremors in the present global conjecture. The passion for excessive profit and more power has led to the global system becoming blocked. First the financial sector collapsed. Then the real economy was severely hit. Global unemployment began. Falling standards of living have lowered consumption. Falling consumption has led to lower output. Declining output led to increased unemployment and a vicious circle with severe side effects began. All of this is a result of wild capitalism. The disaster is a result of neo-liberalism. The system is crippled and is about to die. Free of prejudices This account does not seem exaggerated, incomplete or inconsistent. The only debatable point is the last proposition, that the global system is crippled and about to die. This might not be as realistic as the rest. The situation the global financial sector has found itself in did not arise in a couple of hours in 2007. The outbreak of the crisis came as a surprise for many people. But it was not surprising that there should be a crisis. A crisis had been long awaited. Since 2007 we have seen that states can indeed interfere in the economy. Indeed states can cover the losses of banks and help them attain their profit targets. In return banks act under slightly increased regulation and chase even the small change floating around in the country in which they operate. The financial crisis continues along with the great profitability of the financial sector. Everything is a profit-loss balance for finance institutions which are the practitioners of neo-liberal policies. The finance sector sees its sole aim as increased profitability. Therefore, to describe the process as a crisis, or to see the end of the system around the corner is perhaps not an identification of the facts but expression of sentiment. It is similar to the use of cheap alternative raw materials in the food industry, which means increased profits for some and fear of cancer causing food for others. Certain data indicate that the growth rate of world trade has surpassed the growth rate of the worlds GDP in recent years. T he regionalisation of manufacturing and consumption has formed certain points of conflict within the global system. For this reason since the beginning of the crisis three sets of protectionist measures have been imposed in order to retain the liberal economy. But there were problems with these attempts. Just as in privatisation, a win-win formula is never the case in protectionism. In privatisation there is a seller and a buyer and it is usually the buyer who wins. In protectionist policies some are protected and others are consequently not. If the financial sector can exert pressure over every other sector and if it can have all other actors do as it wants, there is not point of balance in the system. Today the financial sector can control the actions of any firm, person or head of state and government. In the present system, peace and stability are only possible through market stability. Market stability depends solely on things going according to the profit projections of the financial sector. When it comes to market stability, the rules of the game may change suddenly. For example, the state, which had been demanded to withdraw immediately from every stage and dimension of the economy may now be given the role of procuring resources for profits. The state thus becomes the guard of the bank. To ensure profits retirement pay, soup kitchen budget, spending on school materials and the personnel and even electricity costs of hospitals may be cut back. Otherwise, the markets will be anxious. Some details should not be overlooked

Global trade which increased rapidly after trade borders were removed quickly attained its peak and has since been following a declining trend. The reasons for this are clear and normal. There is a limit to output. Similarly, there is a limit to consumption of individuals and societies which cannot be surpassed, like athletic records. The world has reached these limits. Not much distance can be covered by developing new goods and services, by making supply create its own demand. To give a simple and everyday example, you may sell someone tasty and high calorie food. The person will gain weight. You may now sell them larger clothes, dieting goods and sports equipment. You may later sell them medicine for the problems poor nutrition will cause. All of this may be enriched by the various services of the finance sector. But after a while, you can no longer sell any of these to that person. You will have difficulty selling them anything else. That person cannot continue to consume more indefinitely in order to aid you in your quest for greater profits. Once the limit is reached, the crisis begins. Many calculations show that global liberalisation began to decline in 1997 and had become almost halved in 2007-2008 compared to 1997. Index figures show that the value was 4 percent for 1997 and 2.3 percent for 2008. Less liberalism, less room for movement Of course there are reasons for this other than falling consumption and production. Banks becoming risk averse might be one reason. Increased investor fears might be another. Fleeing capital is undoubtedly a factor. But one must see that some administrations which were ostensibly for the free market have acted more conservatively for their national economy and preferred protective measures while forcing every other country to be more liberal. Administrations, banks, investors and others will not forget their experiences since 2997. If the crisis ends one day, five or ten years later, or if it were to end tomorrow, the world economy will never become as open, free and liberal as it was. For continuing measures which are set to become permanent and increased caution will not allow for this. Employment and demographics Every period is a sum of those before it. Every period is thus an end and a beginning. While there can be no ranking of intelligence between nations and countries, but the superiority of some countries may be explained through considering periods in this light. This applies to the crisis period we are going through. This period which constitutes a crisis for some and an opportunity for others may be teaching us all a valuable lesson. For those who are fighting the crisis for survival and those looking for increased profits have both experienced what had not been available before. An appropriate example comes from the field of employment. Industrialised developed nations transferred production facilities to countries with cheap labour in order to increase profits. Countries with cheap labour encouraged the transfer of manufacturing with tax cuts and other subsidies. In this process firms made increased profits and countries with cheap labour made winnings but the developed nations were not equally happy. For example, thanks to American firms China and India both made money and increased employment. But the same process has seen the USA become de-industrialised. This situation, which could not have been foreseen at all not very long ago, has become a serious agenda item in the USA. The employment capacity of the USA has fallen. Rising unemployment and falling employment capacity has disrupted the balance of supply and demand in the labour market. Real income has fallen as many workers have chased the fewer jobs available. This is bad news not only for workers. Firms procuring goods and services for larger and transnational firms met an unexpected consequence as they came to be replaced by other firms in cheap labour countries. Later in the process the Arab Spring began, not independently of crisis circumstances. The Arabs featured as a small factor in the said process and the circumstances were far from being spring. In any case the instability in the Arabic world and the rise is output costs in developing countries increased the risk. It became more difficult to find cheap labour and lower production costs. Under the circumstances it would have been expected that the USA would region lost economic power. The USA may want to better encourage domestic industry and labour. towards the end of his first term and currently, President Obama has signalled some developments to this effect. He, who lives by the sword, dies by the sword; life with neo-liberalism leads to death by neo-liberalism Neo-liberal policies have caused stagnation in the USA and the rest of the world. Inflation may become another problem. In coming years the USA, Japan and the European Union may undergo disastrous stagflation. IMF President Christine Lagarde is probably aware of the danger. This might be the reason why Lagarde has sounded the alarm. Neo-liberal policies have made the rich richer and the poor poorer. Later everything was reduced to the nothingness so that more profit could be made. The system which oversaw and protected neo-liberal policies in the end itself became unsustainable. The implementers of neo-liberal policies probably knew that things would go this way. For them this was no cause for concern. They knew that they could profit and they were proved right. The decline of the US economy, Japans woes and the debt crisis storm in the European Union do not affect every one equally. Some continue to profit. Nevertheless, neo-liberal policies can cause crisis for their adherents. Though the crisis may not apply to everyone, for those it affects, it is just beginning.

KRESEL KRZ VAR MI, YOK MU?

30 01 2013

Belki de soruyu yle sormak daha uygun olabilir; Bu kriz kimin krizi? Bu sorular bir hayli ge kalm gibi grnebilir. Fakat ge de cevaplanmalar gerekir. nk kresel durum dndmzden ok farkl da olabilir. Panoramik bir bak as ile yetinmek ok kt sonular dourabilir. inde yaadmz srece bakp kolaylkla u tehisi koyabiliriz; 2007 ylnda kresel bir kriz balad. Yaanan kriz mevcut kresel konjonktrde sarsntlara yol at. Ar kazanma istei ve daha fazla g edinme tutkusu sistemin blokajna neden oldu. nce mali sistem kt. Ardndan reel

sektr ar darbe ald. Devamnda kresel lekte isizlik krizi balad. Den gelir seviyesi, tketimi azaltt. Azalan tketim, retimi durdurdu. retimde yaanan sorun iten karmalar artrd ve ok ciddi sonularn, yan etkilerini beklememiz gereken bir ksr dng dodu. Btn bu yaananlar vahi kapitalizmin rndr. Yaanan facia neoliberalizmin sonucudur. Sistem kilitlenmitir ve lmek zeredir. nyarglardan Bamsz Olmal Bu tehise bakldnda ierisinde herhangi bir abartl anlatm, eksik bilgi veya tutarszlk olduu iddia edilemez. Tek tartmal nokta ise, bu paragrafn son cmlesi olabilir. Yani sistem kilitlenmitir ve lmek zeredir iddias, dnld kadar gereki olmayabilir yle ki; Kresel finans sisteminin ierisinde bulunduu durum 2007 ylnda birka saat ierisinde ortaya kmad. Krizin patlama an byk ounluk iin srpriz oldu. Ama krizin patlamas srpriz deildi. Aslnda krizin patlamas ok uzun sredir bekleniyordu. 2007 ylndan bugne kadar grdk ki, devletler ekonomiye mdahale edebilirmi. Hatta devletler bankalarn zararlarn karlarm, yetmezse kar hedeflerini tutturmalarna finansal katk da salarm. Bankalar ise ncesine gre biraz daha kontroll olmak kaydyla, faali yet gsterdikleri lkelerde yine ihtirasla bozuk paralara kadar saldrmaya devam edermi. Kresel kriz devam etse de, finans sektrnn muazzam karll da devam ediyor. nk neoliberal politikalarn uygulaycs olan finans kurulular iin her ey sadece bir kar-zarar tablosundan ibaret. Finans sektr k endi varlnn anlamn karllkta ve karlln artrmakta gryor. O nedenle yaanan sreci kriz diye tanmlamak veya gelinen noktay sistemin lm diye grmek, galiba durum tespiti deil de, duygularn ifadesi diye grlebilir. Tpk gda sektrnde yaananlarn birisi iin karln artrlmas iin dierine muadil ucuz hammadde kullanlmas iken, bir dieri iin ka nser reten gda terr olmas gibi eitli istatistik verilerine gre dnya ticaretinin byme hz son altm ylda dnya gayri safi yurt ii retimini at. zellikle retimin ve tketimin blgesellemesi kresel ekonomik sistem ile birtakm atma noktalar meydana getirdi. Bu nedenle dnyada krizin balamasnd an bu yana kez korumac tedbirler liberal ekonomiyi muhafaza adna uygulamaya konuldu. Fakat bu abada da sorun yaand. nk zelletirme projelerinde olduu gibi, korumac politikalarda da asla kazan -kazan forml hayata geemez. nk zelletirmede birisi satar, dieri satn alr ve ounlukla satn alan kazanr. Keza korumac politikalarda da korumaclk uyguland zaman, birisi korunur ve dolaysyla dieri korunamaz Eer finans sektrnn btn dier sektrler zerinden basks varsa, eer finans sektr herkese istediini yaptrabiliyorsa , sistemde herhangi bir denge noktas da kalmaz. Bugn finans sektr btn dnyada her firmaya, her insana ve her devlet/hkmet bakanna dilediini yaptrabilir. nk mevcut sistemde istikrar ve bar sadece piyasalarn istikrar ile mmkn olur. Piyasalarn istikrar ise, sadece ve sadece finans kurulularnn kar hedefine uygunluk ile salanr. Sz konusu olan piyasalarn istikrar olduunda, tereddtsz biimde oyunun kurallar deiebilir. rnein daha nce ekonomi hayatnn her boyutundan ve her aamasndan derhal kmas talep edilen devlete, karllk iin kaynak tedariki grevi verilebilir. Bir bakma de vlet banka ubesinin bekisi olur. Kar hedefi iin, hatta emeklilerin maalar, aevlerinin btesi, okullarn tebeir harcamas, hastanelerinin personel ve hatta elektrik giderleri dahi trpanlanabilir. Aksi halde piyasalar tedirgin olur Baz Detaylar Gzden Kamamal Dnyada snrlarn ortadan kalkmasyla beraber artan kresel ticaret ksa srede tepe noktasna ulat ve daha sonra yavalama eilimi gsterdi. Bunun nedenleri de son derecede anlalr ve olaand; retimin ulaabilecei bir snr vard. Ayn zamanda insanlarn ve toplumlarn da tketiminin -tpk atletizmdeki dnya rekorlar gibi- ulaabilecei ve aamayaca snrlar vard. Dnya bu snrlara ulat. Yeni rn ve hizmetler tretilip, nce arz sonra talep yaratarak da ok fazla ileriy e gidilemedi. Basit ve sklkla grlen bir rnek vermek gerekirse; Bir kiiye nce lezzetli ve yksek kalorili gda satabilirsiniz. O kii bir sre sonra kilo alr. Ona bu defa byk beden kyafetler, zayflama aletleri, diyet rnleri ve spor malzemeleri satabilirsiniz. Hatta daha sonra kt beslenmeden dolay muzdarip olaca hastalklar iin ila da satabilirsiniz. Btn bunlar finans sektrnn eitli rn ve hizmetleri ile de zenginletirebilirsiniz. Ama bir noktadan sonra o kiiye artk bunlar satamazsnz. Ona baka bir ey satmakta da zorlanrsnz. O sizin daha fazla sat mecburiyetinize, daha fazla kar hedefinize yardmc olmak iin ok tketmeye devam edemez. O zaman kriz balar. Birok hesaplama kresel liberalizasyonun 1997 ylnda yavalamaya baladn ve 2007/2008 yllarnda ise 1997ye nispeten neredeyse yarya indiini gsteriyor. Buna gre yaplan endeks hesaplamalar 1997 ylna %4 ve 2008 ylna %2,3 deerini veriyor. Daha az liberalizm, daha az serbestlik Elbette bunun nedenleri arasnda tketimin ve buna bal olarak retimin azalmasnn dnda da nedenler var. Bankalarn riskten korkmas nemli bir etken olarak grlebilir Yatrmclarn artan tedirginliini baka bir neden saylabilir Kaan sermaye kukusuz belirleyici bir sebep tekil eder. Ama esas olarak unu grmek gerekir; serbest pazar seven ve uygulayan ynetimlerden bazlar -dier btn lkeleri daha liberal ve serbest hareket etmeye zorlarken- kendi milli ekonomileri iin daha muhafazakr hareket ettiler ve korumay politikalara tercih ettiler. phesiz ynetimler, bankalar, yatrmclar ve dierler 2007 ylndan bu yana yaadklar deneyimleri artk unutmayacaklar. ayet bu kriz bir gn biterse, belki be belki on yl sonra, hatta bu sabah bile bitse, dnya ekonomisi hibir zaman krizden nce olduu kadar ak, serbest ve liberal olmayacak. nk sren, srecek olan tedbirler ve artan temkin buna msaade etmeyecek. stihdam ve demografi Her dnem kendisinden nceki dnemlerin toplamnn sonucudur. Dolaysyla her dnem hem bir sonutur hem de bir balangtr. Byk bir olaslkla -elbette milletler ve lkeler arasnda bir zek sralamas olamaz, ama- lkelerin birbirine stnln bu gerei kavramak ile ilgili olabilir. Bu durum saptamas ierisinde bulunduumuz kriz dnemi iin de geerli. Aslnda belki de birisi iin kriz ve dieri iin frsat olan bu dnem bize ve herkese bundan sonraki dnemler iin de altn deerinde tecrbeler kazandryor olabilir. nk krize giren ve kmak iin savaan kii de, bu evrede karn artran ve daha fazla kar etmek iin mcadele eden kii de, daha nce hayat boyunca grmediklerini grd, hayat boyunca yaamadklarn yaad. Buna istihdam konusunda bir rnek vermek en dorusu olur; Sanayilemi ve gelimi lkelerin firmalar karn ve verimliliini artrmak iin retim tesislerini skp emein ucuz olduu lkelere tadlar. Emein ucuz olduu lkeler gerekli vergi indirimlerini ve destekleri salayarak onlar bu ynde daha fazla tevik ettiler. Srete firmalar karlln artrd, emein ucuz olduu lkeler de para kazand. Ama sanayilemi lkeler bu gelimelerden ayn derecede memnun olmad. rnein ABD firmalar sayesinde in ve Hindistan hem para kazandlar hem de istihdam saladlar. Ama ABD bugn ayn srecin s onucu olarak sanayisizleiyor. Bir zamanlar hi kimsenin en kk olaslk olarak dahi deerlendirmeyecei bu durum ABDnin ciddi b ir gndem maddesi haline geldi. ABDde nce istihdam kapasitesi dt. Bunun devamnda istihdam azald ve doal olarak isizlik ykseldi. sizliin ykselmesi ve istihdam kapasitesinin dmesi, i piyasasnda arz-talep dengesini bozdu. Az sayda i iin ok sayda talip olunca, reel gelir azald.

Bu durum sadece alanlarn dnyasn karartmad. Byk konsorsiyumlara, dev holdinglere ve okuluslu irketlere mal ve hizmet salayan dier iletmeler de beklemedikleri bir biimde, ummadklar sonularla karlatlar. Ucuz lkelerdeki kurulular onlarn yerini ald. Srecin devamnda -kriz artlarndan bamsz olmayan biimde - Arap Bahar balad. Geri sz konusu olgunun iinde Araplarn pay dkt, hatta artlar hi de bahar denilecek gibi deildi. Ama her durumda Arap corafyasndaki istikrarszlk ve devamnda gelimekte olan lkelerdeki retim maliyetlerinin art, riski de ykseltti. nk ucuz emek bulmak giderek zorlat ve retmek daha da pahal halde geldi. Bu artlarda, rnein ABDnin ekonomik gcn tadil etmesi beklenmeli. ABD kendi snrlar ierisindeki sanayiyi ve istihdam piyasasn daha fazla gzetmek isteyebilir. ABD Bakan Obamann birinci hizmet dneminin sonlarnda ve imdilerde verdii baz mesajlar da buna ynelik g rlebilir. Klla yaayan klla lr, neoliberalizmle yaayan neoliberalizmle lr Neoliberal politikalar ABDye -dolaysyla btn dnyaya- ekonomik duraanlk getirdi. Bunun zerine enflasyon da eklenebilir. O halde nmzdeki yllarda nce ABD ve devamnda Japonya ile Avrupa Birlii stagflasyon facias yaayabilir. Muhtemelen Uluslararas Para Fonu Bakan Christine Lagarde da bu tehlikenin farknda. Lagarden alarm zilini almasnn sebebi de bu olabilir. nk neoliberal politikalar zenginleri daha zengin, fakirleri daha fakir hale getirdi. Bunun sonrasnda ise neoliberalizm daha fazla kar iin her eyi yerle bir etti. Nihayetinde neoliberal politikalar gzeten ve hatta koruyan sistem de bir sre sonra srdrlebilirliini yitirmeye balad. Muhtemelen neoliberal politikalarn uygulayclar bunun byle olacan biliyorlard. Onlar iin yine de bu durum ackl deildi. Onlara bunu da bir kar frsatna evirebileceklerini dnyorlard ve haklydlar. Nihayetinde ABD ekonomisinin gerilemesi, Japonya ekonomisinin yaad skntlar ve Avrupa Birliinde adeta bir kasrga gibi devam eden borlar krizi, herkesi eit etkilemiyor. Hatta bazlarna kar da getiriyor. Fak at yine de neoliberal politikalar onlar destekleyenleri de krize sokabiliyor. Dolaysyla kriz herkes iin geerli olmasa da, krizi gerekten yaayanlar iin kriz yeni balyor.

MALI: THE PARADOX OF THE AGE

21 02 2013

The poor African country of Mali is going through a very difficult time. The world has extended a helping hand to Mali. No one desires Mali to become the centre of regional instability. No one wants Mali to become a base for al-Qaeda linked separatist terrorist organisations. Everyone is aware of the fact that Mali needs to develop and the people of Mali need to be fed. Terrorism needs to be fought. The international society is determined to do its part in this matter. In line with this objective, the IMF has decided to extent emergency credit worth USD 13.6 million to the Mali government. This number may appear low with respect to many countries. In some countries this amount may be used to transfer ageing football players. But this amount is significant for Mali. It is an appropriate amount to prevent hunger in the country. On the other hand EUR 338 million will be spent for fighting terrorism in Mali. The amount will be covered by the international community and countries in the region. The budget for fighting terrorism is about 20 times the budget for fighting hunger. Where poverty and hunger exist, it is not surprising that terrorism takes root. However the projects and the budget allocated to them can be thought provoking. For example, USD 4 trillion has been spend on the war on terror which began in Afghanistan and continued in Iraq. This is almost the entire amount of funds spent during the Second World War. Many people were killed, many homes burned down, many towns were destroyed. Afghanistan was saved and Ira q was liberated. A budget of USD 4 trillion may have yielded better results without anyone getting killed. In defeating terrorism, a grain of wheat or a piece of chalk may go further than a box of bullets. A well fed and educated person is highly unlikely to become a terrorist. Had the poverty and ignorance in Mali been fought before, the circumstances today might have been very different.

AIN PARADOKSU; MAL

06 02 2013

Fakir Afrika lkesi Mali ok zor bir dnemden geiyor. Dnya Maliye yardm elini uzatt. Malinin blgesel istikrarszlk merkezi olmasn hi kimse arzu etmiyor. Hi kimse Malinin El Kaide balantl ayrlk terr gruplarnn yerleim ve slenme blgesi olmasn istemiyor. Herkes ayn gerein farknda. Malinin kalknmas ve Malililerin karnnn doymas lazm. Ayrca terrle de mcadele edilmesi lazm. Uluslararas toplum bu konuda zerine deni yerine getirmekte kararl. Bu amaca uygun olarak, Uluslararas Para Fonu Mali ynetimine 13,6 milyon EUR tutarnda acil kredi salama karar ald. Rakam belki baka lkeler iin yksek olmayabilir. Hatta belki baz lkelerde bu para ile gzden den yal futbolcu transferi yaplabilir. Ama yine de bu para Mali iin ok nemli. Bu para Malide aln azaltlmas iin kullanlmaya uygun bir miktar. Dier taraftan Malide terrle mcadele iin 338 milyon EUR para harcanacak. Sz konusu mebla uluslararas toplum ve blge lkeleri finanse edecek. Terrle savaa ayrlan bte alkla savaa ayrlan btenin yaklak 20 kat. Fakirliin ve sefaletin olduu yerde iddetin ve terrizmin glenmesi ve gelimesi hi kimse iin artc deil. Ama projeler iin ayrlan bteler gerekten de dndrc olabiliyor. rnein ABD

Afganistanda balayan ve Irakta devam eden terre kar sava iin 4 trilyon USD harcad. Yani yaklak kinci Dnya Sava kadar bir maliyet finanse edildi. ok insan ld, ok ehir yand, ok ev ykld. Afganistan kurtarld ve Irak zgrletirildi. Muhtemelen 4 trilyon USD bte ile hi kimse lmeden daha baarl sonular elde edilebilirdi. Aslnda terr yenmek iin bir buday tanesi veya bir para tebeir, bir kutu kurundan daha faydal olabilir. nk tok ve eitim sahibi birisinin terrist olmas, iddete eilimli olmas bir hayli zayf bir olaslk. Malide daha nce cehaletle ve alkla mcadele iin yaplmas gerekenler yaplsayd, bugn artlar ok daha farkl geliebilirdi.

THE WORST YEAR SINCE 2009

21 02 2013

The USA has begun 2013 in recession, which may continue This was not how it was supposed to happen. The second term in office of the well liked and cheerful president was to begin with celebrations. The US taxpayer had approved of his actions. The taxpayers had given their blessing to his further actions. President Obama had promised a happy future. Perhaps President Obama should have been given the Nobel prize for economics as well as for peace. Just as Obama got the peace prize on credit, he could have also received the prize for economics the same way. If the promise of success, rather than success itself is enough for this prize, the peace prize should have been Obamas. What Obama has done for pea ce and the extent to which he succeeded is comparable to what he has done for the economy and his success in this field. Despite all positive expectations to the contrary the US economy contracted in the final quarter of 2012. Property sales had just picked up. A significant increase was observed in consumer spending. But the dark predictions of IMF President Christine Lagarde were proven correct. Lagarde had said in Davos that conditions were worsening in the USA, Europe and Japan and if these countries did not pick themselves up, there would be a global downturn. We have all seen that Lagarde was at least half right. Yet the Federal Reserve had taken a decision recently to inject USD 85 billion in the markets every month to stimulate economy. This decision and practice alone was expected to give very positive results. In order to keep up optimism we can say that the US economy contracted by only 0.1 percent in 2012. But caution, as well as optimism is needed at this point. Caution is the more important component as the contraction in the last quarter by 0.1 percent compared to the same period in the previous year is the worst figure for US economic performance since 2009. Some economists had claimed that the Us economy would not contract and even that it would grow. According to them the Us economy would have grown by 1.1 percent in this quarter. They may have been right and the Us economy may have experienced a rapid process of recovery. But the USA chose to limit public spending. As a result demand, employment and manufacturing output have fallen. Those in charge of the US economy should reach some conclusions regarding the savings measures and further cuts before March. The US economy had grown by 1.91 percent in 2007, when the crisis began and then contracted by 0.34 percent in 2008 and by 3.07 percent in 2009. The contraction had come to an end in 2010 when the US economy grew by 2.39 percent. Although the rate slowed down to 1.8 percent in 2011, growth had risen to 2.30 percent in 2012. There are predictions that the US economy will grow by 2 percent in 2013. If the attitude of the FED does not change and support for the markets continues, the USA may be more comfortable in 2013 than Europe which is imposing tough austerity. In 2013, the first year of his second term, President Obama may take decisive steps in rehabilitating the economy of his country through the determined support of the FED. But the problem here is that the slightest surprising development in the US economy has an influence on the rest of the world: the worst performance since 2009 and the negative growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 were unexpected. On the contrary, positive news were predicted. Such surprises could have a very bad influence on developments in 2013.

2009 YILINDAN BU YANA EN KTS

06 02 2013

ABD 2013 ylna resesyonla balad ve byle de devam edebilir Byle olmayacakt. Gler yzl ve sevilen bakann ikinci dnemi kutlamalarla balayacakt. nk ABDli vergi mkellefleri sempatik bakann yaptklarn onaylamt. Ayrca yapacaklarn da onaylamt. Bakan Obama gelecek ve mutluluk vaat ediyordu. Belki ABD Bakan Obamaya Nobel Bar dl verirken, bir de Nobel Ekonomi dl de verilmeliydi. nk Obama nasl bar iin dl pein aldysa, ekonomi iin de dl pein alabilirdi. Madem ki dl iin baar deil, baar dl kfiydi, Obamann muhakkak Nobel Ekonomi dl almas gerekirdi. Nihayetinde Obama bar iin neler yaptysa ve ne derecede baarlysa, ekonomi iin de ayns yapt ve ayn derecede baarl oldu ABD ekonomisi 2012 ylnn son eyreinde btn olumlu beklentilerin aksine darald. Konut satlar yeniden hzlanmt. Tketici harcamalarnda belirgin bir art da grlyordu. Ama Uluslararas Para Fonunun bakan Christine Lagarden kt kehaneti doru kt. Lagarde Davosta ABD, Avrupa ve Japonyada artlarn ktletiini ve kendilerini toparlamazlarsa, her eyin kresel lekte daha ktye gidebileceini aklamt. Lagarden sznn en azndan yarsnn hakl olduunu hep beraber grdk. Hlbuki ABD Merkez Bankas FED ksa sre nce ekonomiyi canlandrma amacyla piyasalara her ay 85 milyar USD enjekte etme karar almt. Sadece bu kararn ve uygulamann dahi ok olumlu sonular dourmas bekleniyordu. yimser olmak iin ABD ekonomisinin 2012 ylnn son eyreinde sadece %0,1 kldn vurgulamak mmkn. Ama bu noktada iyimserlikle beraber temkin de gerekli. Hatta temkin iyimserlikten daha nemli; nk burada sze konu olan son eyrekte yllk bazda %0,1 klme, ABD iin 2009dan bu yana en kt performans anlamna geliyor! Baz ekonomistler ABD ekonomisinin klmeyeceini, hatta byyeceini iddia etmilerdi. Onlara gre ABD ekonomisi bu eyrekt e muhakkak %1,1 byyecekti. Aslnda hakl olabilirlerdi ve ABD ekonomisi hzl bir toparlanma sreci yaayabilirdi. Ama ABD kamu harcamalarnda kesintiye gitti. Bunun sonucunda tketim, talep, istihdam ve retim pe pee dtler. Elbette ABD ekonomisine yn verenler Mart ay ge lmeden bundan yaplacak tasarruflar ve uygulamaya konulacak kesintiler ile ilgili baz sonulara varmallar. ABD ekonomisi krizin balad 2007 ylndaki %1,91lik bymenin ardndan 2008 ylnda %0,34 ve devamnda 2009 ylnda %3,07 orannda klmt. ABD bu daralma srecine 2010da son verdi ve %2,39 orannda byme salad. Bu oran 2011 ylnda %1,80 dzeyine inse de, 2012 ylnda %2,30 seviyesine kt. ABD ekonomisinin 2013 ylnda %2 byyecei ynnde baz tahminler var. ABD ekonomisi FEDin tutumu deimezse ve piyasalara verilen destek srerse, ABD 2013 yln sert tasarruf tedbirleriyle zm arayan Avro Blgesine nispeten daha rahat geirebilir. ABD Bakan Obama 2013 ylnda, ikinci dneminin birinci ylnda FEDin piyasalara kararl destei sayesinde lkesinin ekonom isini rehabilite etmek ynnde gl admlar atabilir. Fakat buradaki sorun, ABD ekonomisinin yaayaca en kk srprizin btn kresel sistemin zerinde de ok etkili olduu gerei; 2012 ylnn drdnc eyreinde yaanan srpriz ve 2009 ylndan bu yana en kt performans beklenmiyordu. Hatta aksine iyi bir tablo mit ediliyordu. O nedenle 2013 ylnda yeni ve benzer srprizler gndeme gelirse, devam ok vahim olab ilir.

THE NUCLEAR RISK REMAINS GREAT

19 02 2013

The USA and the Russian Federation both friends and rivals over nuclear disarmament Starting his first term, US President Obama had made an important promise to Americans and the world at large. Obama had said that the world would be rid of all nuclear weapons. Today the number of nuclear warheads in the world is estimated to be around 19,000. Of these, approximately 18,000 belong to Russia and the USA. It is known that Russia has 10,000 warheads in its silos while the USA has 8,000. This high proportion gives these two states a very risky responsibility in nuclear disarmament work. By signing the new START treaty on the 8 th of

April 2010, US President Obama and Russian President Medvedev demonstrated political will for disarmament. The new START agreement th became effective as of the 5 of February 2011. The aim of reducing the number of strategic nuclear arms is therefore still valid. The new START agreement has the sides promising to cut by half the number of strategic nuclear transport options, such as submarines, intercontinental missiles and long range aircraft within seven years. The number of nuclear warheads will also be reduced by a third to 1,550. Although the sides have displayed the political will for nuclear disarmament, the lack of trust over issues such as aerial defence systems and especially the missile shield defence slow down the process. Vladimir Putin has officially stated that they see the missile shield as a threat. He has also said that they would respond to the system to maintain their deterrent. The disarmament process is unlikely to gather pace. However the serious cuts to the US defence budget in coming years may encourage Russia to follow the same path. Meanwhile, it is not just the USA and Russia which are in possession of nuclear arms. France has 300 warheads. China comes next with 240. Great Britain has 225 warheads. Next comes Pakistan with an estimated 90-110 warheads. It is followed by India with an estimated 80-100. Israel is thought to have between 80 and 200 warheads. The figures announced by SIRPI show that there is a long time to go until the world is a safer place. Another piece of data on the issue suggests that the USA has the most nuclear arms material. The Economist magazine has claimed that the USA has more than 500 tonnes of nuclear arms material in its inventory. Russia, France and Britain follow with material approaching 500 tonnes. Poland, Sweden and Hungary are the countries with the least nuclear arms material. The same study estimates that Israel has between 0.5-1.99 tonnes of nuclear material while Iran has 5 to 20 kilograms.

NKLEER RSK HALA OK BYK

13 02 2013

ABD ve Rusya Federasyonu nkleer silahszlanma konusunda hem dost hem rakip ABD Bakan Obama ilk dneminde greve balarken, btn Amerikallara ve btn dnyaya ok nemli bir sz vermiti. Obama bt n dnyann nkleer silahlardan kurtulacan sylemiti. Fakat yine de bugn btn dnyada 19.000 nkleer silah olduu tahmin ediliyor. Bu silahlardan yaklak 18.000 adedi ABDye ve Rusyaya ait. Rusyann elinde 10.000 adet ve ABDnin silolarnda 8.000 adet nkleer silah olduu biliniyor. Bu byk oran iki devlete nkleer silahszlanma almalar konusunda ok riskli bir sorumluluk yklyor. 2009 ylnn sonunda ABD Bakan Obama ve Rusya Devlet Bakan Medvedev Yeni START Antlamasn 8 Nisan 2010da imzalayarak, srecin devamll konusunda sahip olduklar siyasi iradeyi ispat ettiler. Bylelikle Yeni START Antlamas 5 ubat 2011 tarihinde yrrle girdi. Dolaysyla stratejik nkleer silahlarn azaltlmas hedefi halen geerliliini koruyor. Yeni START Antlamas taraf lkeleri nkleer stratejik nakliye olanaklarn, rnein uygun denizaltlar, ktalararas fzeleri ve uzun menzilli uaklar yedi yl ierisinde yarya, yani yaklak 800e indirmeyi ngryor. Ayn anlamann dier maddelerine gre sava balklar da te bir nispetinde azaltlarak 1.550ye indirilecek. Her ne kadar taraflar nkleer silahszlanma iin gereken iradeyi ortaya koysalar da, hava savunma sistemleri ve zellikle fze kalkan/emsiyesi ve sair konularda zaman zaman duyulan gven eksiklii ve phe sreci yavalatyor. Nitekim Vladimir Putin sz konusu projeyi dorudan tehdit olarak grdklerini resmi olarak deklare etti. Hatta Putin caydrc gc korumak iin bu sisteme cevap vereceklerini de aklad. Dolaysyla nkleer silahszlanma srecinin hzlanmas kolay grnmyor. Fakat ABDnin zellikle nmzdeki yllar iin savunma btesinde ok ciddi kesintiye gitmesi, Rusyay da belki ayn yola sevk edebilir. Dier taraftan elinde nkleer silah olanlar elbette sadece Rusya ve ABD deil. Fransann da 300 adet nkleer silah var. Fransay in 240 adet ile takip ediyor. Bir sonraki srada ise 225 adet ile Byk Britanya var. Daha sonra 90 ila 110 adet arasnda yaplan tahmin ile Pakistan geliyor. Onu 80 ila 100 adet arasnda tahminle Hindistan izliyor. srailin elindeki nkleer silahlarn says 80 ve 200 adet arasnda varsaylyor. SIRPInn aklad bu rakamlar dnyann gvenli bir yer olmas iin daha ok uzun bir zamana ihtiya duyulduuna iaret ediyor. Bu konudaki baka bir veriye gre, dnyada en ok nkleer silah materyali ABDnin elinde bulunuyor. The Economist Dergisi, ABDnin envanterinde 500 tondan fazla nkleer silah maddesi bulunduunu yazd. Sralamada ABD'yi Rusya, Fransa ve ngiltere 500 tona yaklaan miktarla takip ediyor. te yandan sz konusu derginin listesine gre dnyada en az nkleer silah materyalinin olduu lkeler ise Polonya, sve ve Macaristan. Ayn aratrma srail'in elinde 0.5-1.99 ton ve ran'n elinde ise 5-20 kg nkleer silah materyali olduunu iler sryor.

THE NEW PERSPECTIVES OF GLOBAL SECURITY

19 02 2013

A new period begins and new concepts emerge

Looking at the world in the beginning of 2013, a strange view emerges. The end of US President Obamas first term and the ons et of his second term forms the watershed between two new phases in the global system. It is possible that Obamas two terms in office will be nothing like each other. When Obama was elected president, the USA and the world at large had been tired by the Republican Bush administration. Obamas victorious slogan yes, we can targeted this fact. Obama had promised the electorate change. This was what made Obama valuable. When he came into office, Obama had to face crises and wars. The American people wanted him to end the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The US people also expected the new president to deal with the global crisis as soon as possible. In other words, the newly elected president had to end two wars and a global crisis. th As Obamas first term came to an end, the phase which began on the 11 of September 2011 also came to an end. By the time Obama started campaigning for re-election, the USA had ended its war in Iraq. It had largely withdrawn from Iraq. There were significant developments regarding withdrawal from Afghanistan. The USA will have probably withdrawn from Afghanistan next year. Meanwhile, the USA has eliminated Osama bin Laden. There were of course other developments during Obamas first term. For example, there were regime changes in Tu nisia, Libya and Egypt. Regime change is imminent in Syria. Obamas first term also saw cooperation and harmony between Washington and the international community re -established. The White House no longer sees the world in terms of the good and the bad. At least it does not openly state such opinions. The White House runs all of its foreign policy processes and security policies in harmony with international institutions and organisations, as far as possible. As a result the poor legacy of the Bush administration has been dissipated to a great extent. The division of the international public opinion over Iraq is now a thing of the past. The same thing was experienced regarding Iran. In the remainder of the Obama presidency, Brazil in Latin America, India in south Asia, China and Indonesia in the Pacific and South Africa in Africa will frequently act as regional guarantors of the global political and economic architecture. During his second campaign Obama chose the slogan forward. In the new period, issues remaining from the former will continue to weigh heavy. It is not possible to introduce a ranking among them. The global crisis will continue to whiten Obamas hair with its durabil ity. Obama will probably bequeath this problem to a number of presidents to come. The removal of the bloody dictatorship in Syria is on the list. So is Irans nuclear programme. Te global fight against terrorism also needs to be considered. Realistically, neither Syria nor Iran are today a serious or determining threat for the USA or for the global system. For the USA, the continuation of the global war on terror during Obamas second term is more important. The USA will carry on with its fight against al -Qaida and its derivative organisations on every field. The activity of unmanned aerial drones will increase in this process. In the new period, this problem and the struggle with this problem will apply not only in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Middle East, the Near East, south Asia and the Maghreb but also in Africa at large. Al-Qaida derivative organisations will be heard of often in the news. Anyone who follows the news will come to know of the Pakistani FATA tribal zone. The AQAP in Yemen, the El-Shabaab in Somalia, the AQI in Iraq and the AQIM in Syria will become notorious. As th e peoples search for democracy shakes authoritarian regimes, it will lend power to organisations such as those listed. Obama, who has urged the electorate forward and has won a victory to this end will have to spend more time on Africa and th e Pacific in his new term. Countries splitting up will also be among the significant news items of Obamas second term. In Obamas second term we will come to see new examples of economic pressure on politics and the decisions of the marketplace guiding political moves. The second dip of the crisis may coincide with Obamas final years. Of course one should not bet against the USA. But it is almost certain that the second Obama term will be under the short and long term pressure of crisis. The US Congress savings dec ision regarding the next decade is bolder than it looks and could produce more side effects than expected. Savings of USD 1 trillion may block the US and the world economy. Furthermore, the USAs decision to increase its tax revenue by USD 600 billion towa rds the end of 2012 may have a significant impact on the world economy in the short term. For the USA, the basic rule which predates Obama remains unchanged. The basic rule covers the entire functioning of the syste m. The USAs domestic economic strength forms the basis of its strength abroad. For that reason the USAs priority will be to rehabilitate its economy. However whether this objective will be pursued with an eye to the choices of the marketplace or the interests of the middle class in the new term remains to be seen. The USA will probably spend the next few years in economic stagnation. The social depression may increase in years of economic stagnation. If the USA does not change its present course it may become a centre for low cost manufacturing. Under these circumstances, while the UA may maintain its weight in the world political stage, it might not be able to take very intensive high cost risks. Therefore, while the USA tries to strengthen its internal economic balance, it may bring cooperation with Europe to the fore of its global and regional planning. While the European Union fights the debt crisis today, it is taking on important roles in the global system due to the activities of its key countries. The European Union is an important actor in global stability and welfare. It is not easy for Europe to overcome the debt crisis. However the system at the moment seems powerful enough not to have to abandon Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy to their fates. It might be reasonable to expect the USA to aid the European Union in increasing its rate of growth and decreasing unemployment. The European Union is still the USAs largest trading partner. Annual trade between the two side s is worth USD 600 billion per year. Trans-Atlantic joint planning may become more conspicuous in measures against the crisis. The global system is still a uni-polar structure. Some interpretations claim that Russia and China will form a pole opposing the USA. This is an unrealistic thesis. Moscow and Beijing are still powers who prolong processes and make life difficult for Washington. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is still far from providing an alternative to the present systematic. There are still sharp divisions of opinion on certain matters between the sides. For example, the USA will never recognise the independence of Abkhazia or South Ossetia. It is certain that zones of influence Russia is trying to form in its immediate periphery will not come to be accepted in Washington. On the other hand the sides have a serious clash of opinion over Syria, just as they had over Iraq and Libya before. The enlargement of the NATO is another thorny issue. It is known to all that the US and NATO missile defence shield is not accepted by the other side. Despite these deep splits of opinion, the parties are in agreement over some general principles. There might be disputes or divisions but cooperation may be possible nevertheless. The preservation of common points and the development of mutual interests through cooperation is also possible. Indeed, bond markets, nuclear disarmament with an eye to reducing spending, the protection and promotion of free trade and foreign investment all take place under this heading. Leaving aside problems which are a cause for disagreement and to make efforts to develop mutual interests will always have beneficial consequences.

US President Obama may maintain his smile until his term in office is up. However, even if the smile remains, Obama will become more wrinkled and his hair will become whiter. Obama will continue looking for a balance in both trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific relations. The US President has to be mindful of the domestic economy and political conditions. Meanwhile, he should not ignore the rest of the world. In Oba mas new term, it would not be wise for anyone to bet against the USA. In this period, there will be no victories around the world, despite the USA. Countries which can run their own national processes in tandem with regional global currents will be successful in this period. States which can think globally and act locally will be at an advantage. There is a high chance of surprise in the global balances and regional developments during Obamas second term. Countries well prepared for surprises will therefore be in a better position. In the new term, not the rich countries, but those countries which can keep their population fed will be stable. In plainer terms: in countries with good access to food, healthcare infrastructure, unemployment measures and similar arrangements, towns will be safe and peaceful at night. The USA still runs the risk of an unsuccessful Arab Spring. If during this new terms the USA is not effective in regional instability centres in North Africa, especially Egypt and Libya, and in other parts of Africa great and permanent problems may begin. A number of countries may find themselves in the same situation as Somalia. This situation may apply to the Straits of Hormuz and the Bay of Aden and even to the Arab Sea and the Red Sea.

KRESEL GVENLN YEN PERSPEKTF

13 02 2013

Yeni bir dnem balyor ve yeni dnemin yeni kavramlar geliiyor 2013 ylnn balangcnda dnyaya bir gz atnca, ortaya ok garip bir fotoraf kyor. ABD Bakan Obamann birinci dneminin bitii ve ikinci dneminin balangc kresel sistemde de yeni bir aamann sfr noktasn tekil ediyor. Muhtemelen Obamann birinci ve ikinci dneml eri birbirine hi benzemeyecek ABD Bakan Obamann seildii gn ABDnin ve btn dnyann zerinde Cumhuriyetilerin ve Bakan George W. Bushun getirdii yorgunluk ve bkknlk vard. Obamaya seimi kazandran slogan -evet, yapabiliriz- buna dayanyordu. Obama semene deiim vaat ediyordu. Obamay deerli klan da bu oldu. Obama seildiinde alma masasnn zeri kriz ve sava dosyalar ile doluydu. ABD halk ondan Irakta ve Afganistanda devam eden savalar bitirmesini bekliyordu. Ayrca ABD halknn beklentisi yeni bakann mmkn olan en abuk biimde kresel krizi de sona erdirmesiydi. Baka bir deyile ABDnin yeni bakan iki sava ve bir kresel krizi alt etmek zorundayd. Obamann birinci dnemi biterken, aslnda 11 Eyll 2001de balayan evre sona erdi. Obama yeniden seim kampanyasna start verdiinde, ABD Irak Savana son vermiti. Ayrca ABD Irak ok byk lde terk etmiti. Obamann dneminde Afganistandan birlik ekilmesi ile de ilgili nemli gelimeler yaand. Byk olaslkla ABD sonraki yl Afganistandan da km olacak. stelik ABD bu arada Usame bin Ladini de tesirsiz hale getirdi. Obamann birinci dneminde elbette baka gelimeler de yaand. rnein Tunusta, Libyada ve Msrda rejim deiti. Suriyede ise rejim deimek zere Obamann birinci dnemi Washington DC ile uluslararas toplum arasnda ahengin saland ve ibirlii ikliminin yeniden kurulduu dnem oldu. Beyaz Saray artk dnyay iyiler ve ktler diye ayrmyor. Veya en azndan bunu artk deklare etmiyor. Beyaz Saray btn d politika srelerini ve gvenlik politikalarn mmkn olduu lde uluslararas kurum ve kurulular ile uyum ve ahenk iinde yrtyor. Bu kapsamda yerel ve blgesel glerle ibirliini gelitiriyor. Nitekim bu sayede George W. Bush dneminden kalan kt miras bir hayli azald. Daha nce uluslararas toplum ve dnya kamuoyunun Irak konusunda yaad blnme ortadan kalkt. Ayn deneyim ran konusunda da grld. Obamal yllarn kalan ksmnda Latin Amerikada Brezilya, Gney Asyada Hindistan, Pasifikte Endonezya ve in ve Afrikada Gney Afrika sklkla k resel sistemin siyaset ve ekonomi mimarisinin blgesel gvenceleri olacak. Obama ikinci dnem iin aday olduunda ileri slogann tercih etti. Yeni dnemde elbette bir nceki dnemden bakiye kalan konular arln koruyacak. Bunlarn arasnda bir sralama yapmak kolay deil. Fakat kresel kriz sreklilii sayesinde Obamann salarn beyazlatmaya devam edecek. Muhtemelen Obama bu sorunu kendisinden sonraki birka bakana da devredecek. Ama her durumda Suriyedeki kanl diktatrln yklmas bu listede yerini koruyor. Ayrca rann nkleer program da listede varln muhafaza ediyor. Bunlara terrizme kar kresel mcadeleyi de eklemek art. Gereki bir bak ile unu sylemek mmkn; Bugn iin ne Suriye ne de ran ABD iin veya kresel sistem iin ciddi veya bel irleyici bir sorun deil. ABD asndan Obamann ikinci dneminde terrizme kar kresel mcadelenin devamll byk neme sahip. ABD El Kai de ve trevi olan eitli rgtler ile savan her zeminde devam ettirecek. Bunda hi phesiz insansz hava aralarnn etkinlii artarak srecek. Yeni dnemde bu sorun ve bu sorunla sava sadece Afganistanda, Pakistanda, Orta Douda, Yakn Douda, Gney Asyada ve Magrep te yaanmayacak, ayn zamanda Afrikada da younluk kazanacak Fakat haber bltenlerinde El Kaide trevi rgtler sklkla yer alacak. Byk olaslkla her televizyon izleyicisi Pakistanda airetler blgesi FATA adnda bir yer olduunu renecek. Yemende AQAP Somalide Al -Shabaab, Irakta AQI ve Suriyede AQIM oka mehur olacak. Halklarn demokrasi araylar otoriter rejimleri sarsarken, yaanan sarsntlar bu tr rgtleri daha fazla glendirecek. Semene ileri diyen ve ileri iin zafer kazanan Obama yeni dneminde Afrika ve Pasifik ile daha ok zaman harcayacak. Obamann ikinci dneminde bilhassa gndemde yer alacak haberlerin arasnda lkelerin blnmeleri de yer alacak. Obamann ikinci dneminde ekonominin siyaset zerinde basksnn ve piyasalarn kararlarnn siyaseti ynlendirmesinin yeni rneklerini gzlemleyebileceiz. nk kresel krizin ikinci dip noktas Obamal yllara denk gelebilir. Elbette ABDye kar bahis oynamak iyi bir ey deildir. Ama ikinci Obama dneminin hem ksa hem de uzun vadede kriz basks altnda olaca kesin saylr. ABD Kongresinin nmzdeki on yla ilikin tasarruf karar grndnden ok daha cesur bir karar ve yine tahminlerden ok daha fazla yan etki retebilir. nk 1 trilyon USD

tasarruf ABD ekonomisini de, dnya ekonomisini de bloke edebilir. Ayrca ABDnin 2012 ylnn sonlarnda vergi gelirini 600 milyar USD artrmaya ynelik yasal dzenlemeleri de ksa vadede dnya ekonomisi zerinde ok etkili sonular dourabilir. ABD iin -Obamadan nce olduu gibi, imdi de- temel kural ayn ve deimiyor. Bu temel kural, muhtemelen btn sistemin ve ileyiin srrn da ieriyor. ABD iin ieride ekonominin gc, dnyadaki kudretinin temelini tekil ediyor O nedenle ABD iin yeni dnemde de ncelik ekonominin rehabilitasyonu olacak. Fakat ABDnin yeni dnemde, bu hedefe ynelik admlarn atarken, tercihi piyasalarn tatmini mi, yoksa orta snfn glendirilmesi mi, onu henz tam bilmiyoruz. ABDnin nmzdeki birka yl ekonomik duraanlkta geirmesi olasl yksek... ABD ekonomik duraanlk ile geen yllarda sosyal depresyon da yaayabilir. ayet ABD mevcut gidiat deitiremezse, dk maliyetli retim merkezi haline gelebilir. Bu artlarda ABD dnya siyaset sahnesinde arln korumakla beraber, ok youn biimde ve ok yksek maliyetlerle risk stlenmesi pek anlaml olmayabilir . O nedenle ABD i ekonomik dengelerini glendirmeye gayret ederken, kresel ve blgesel politikalarnda planlamalarnda ve uygulamalar nda Avrupa ile ibirliini ne karabilir. Avrupa Birlii bugn borlar krizi ile bouuyor, ama yine de lokomotif lkelerinin etkinlii sayesinde, kresel denklemlerde nemli roller stleniyor. Avrupa Birlii hem kresel istikrar hem de kresel refah iin nemli bir aktr olarak kabul gryor. Avrupa iin borlar krizinin almas elbette kolay deil. Ama mevcut sistem Yunanistan, Portekiz, spanya, rlanda ve talyay kaderine terk etmeyecek gce sahip grnyor. ABDnin bu srete Avrupa Birliini byme hzn artrmas ve isizlik orann drmesi i in desteklemesini beklemek mantkl olabilir. nk Avrupa Birlii halen ABDnin en byk ticaret orta konumunu muhafaza ediyor. ki taraf arasndaki yllk ticaret hacmi 600 milyar USD seviyesinde. Krizin almas ile ilgili planlamalarda Trans Atlantik ortak almalar daha fazla ne k abilir. Kresel sistem halen tek kutuplu yapya sahip... Belki baz yorumculara gre, Rusya ve in ABDnin karsndaki kutbu tekil edebilir. Ama bu tezi gereki grmek bir hayli zor... nk Moskova ve Pekin hlihazrda sadece Washington DC iin ileri zorlatran ve sreleri uzatan gler olarak grlyor. angay birlii rgt de herhangi bir biimde mevcut sistematie -henz- bir alternatif retmiyor. Halen taraflar arasnda baz ok nemli konularda keskin gr ayrlklar var. rnein ABD asla Abhazyann ve Gney Osetyann bamszln tanmayacak. Rusyann birinci kuak komu blgelerinde meydana getirmeye alt etki sahalarnn Washington DCde kabul grmeyecei muhakkak. Dier taraftan iki taraf arasnda -daha nce Irak ve Libyada da olduu gibi- Suriye konusunda ciddi gr ayrlklar var. Ayrca NATOnun genilemesi de taraflarn anlaamad ve uzlaamad bir konu. ABDnin ve NATOnun fze savunma sisteminin de dier tarafta kabul grmedii herkes iin malum bir konu. Taraflar bu derin gr ayrlklarna ramen baz temel ilkelerde mutabklar. Anlamazlklar ve uzlamazlklar olabilir. Fakat ibirlii yine de mmkndr. Ortak noktalarn muhafazas ve buna dayanan ibirlii sayesinde karlkl menfaatlerin gelitirilmesi de mmknd r. Nitekim tahvil piyasalar, bteler zerindeki yk hafifletmeye ynelik nkleer silahszlanma, serbest ticaretin ve yabanc sermaye yatrmlarnn korunmas ve teviki bu kapsamda yer alyor. Dolaysyla anlamazlk konusu olan sorunlar bir kenara brakp, karlkl menfaatlerin ort aklaa gelitirilmesi iin aba gsterilmesi her zaman faydal sonular retebilir. ABD Bakan Obama grev srnceye kadar yzndeki glmsemeyi muhafaza edebilir. Ama glmseme yerini korusa da, yzndeki krklklar ve salarndaki beyazlar kanlmaz biimde artacak. Obama hem Trans Atlantik ilikilerde hem de Trans Pasifik ilikilerde denge arayn srdrecek. ABDnin bakan i politikaya ve i ekonomiye tanmak zorunda. Ama ayn zamanda dnyann geriye kalann da ihmal etmemek zorunda Obamann yeni dneminde de ABDye kar bahis oynamak hi kimse iin akllca olmayacak. Bu dnemde de dnyada hemen hibir konuda ABDye ramen bir baar sz konusu olmayacak. Bu dnemde kendi ulusal srelerini blgesel ve kresel srelerle somut bir paralellikle yrtebilen lkeler baarl olacak. Keza kresel dnp blgesel hareket edebilen devletler dierlerine gre daha baarl olacak. Kuku yok ki, Obamann ikinci dneminde kresel d engelerde ve blgesel gelimelerde srpriz ihtimali ok fazla olacak. Bu nedenle srprizlere kar en hazrlkl olan lkeler daha avantajl olacak. Yeni dnemde daha zengin olan lkeler deil, halknn karn daha tok olan lkeler daha istikrarl olacak. Daha somut bir ifade kullanmak gerekiyorsa; gdaya eriim, salk altyaps, isizlikle mcadele ve benzeri sahalarda baars yksek lkelerde ehirler geceleri daha huzurlu ve daha gvenli olacak. ABD asndan Arap Baharnn baarszl riski halen devam ediyor. Eer ABD yeni dnemde bata Msr ve Libya olmak zere Magrepte, ayrca Afrikadaki blgesel istikrarszlk merkezlerinde etkili olamazsa, byk ve kalc sorunlar balayabilir. Dier bir deyile, blgedeki Somalilerin says artabilir. Bu durum Hrmz Boaz ve Aden Krfezi, hatta Umman Denizi ve Kzl deniz iin de geerli olabilir.

HUNGER GROWS IN AFRICA

19 02 2013

Global crises and regional conditions continue to negatively affect Africa The South African government is concerned over a serious problem. The government is looking for a response to the poor consequences of an annual 9 percent rise in food prices. In the Republic of South Africa, 12 million people are in risk of famine. The social situation in the country is worsening. Even in the larger cities, access to food has become difficult for many people. As in many other countries around the world, in South Africa too neo-liberalism is in conflict with the states raison dtre. This process can signal the onslaught of very dangerous developments in the country. For many states, food security is a matter that is at least as important as state security or border security. If citizens cannot access food, a poor future in that country will not be a surprise. If parents cannot ensure their children go to bed full, nothing will seem scary to them in a short time. Famine is like an epidemic South Africa has a highly developed agricultural sector. Agriculture in South Africa has outgrown traditional methods and runs on an industrial level. Thus, high fertility was achieved and South Africa became a significant exporter of agricultural products. The population of South Africa increases by 1.1 percent every year. With its 52 million inhabitants South Africa faces the dual task of feeding the population and maintaining export levels. However, high food prices and mass unemployment causes access to food in the country to be problematic for many people.

Statistics from various sources show that households on average spend 20 percent of their budget on food. In developed countries, this is usually around 10 percent. South Africa has a very dense urban population. More than half the people live in towns. In Cape Town the poorer population has to allocate half of its earnings on food. A significant part of the population has to subsist on bread and maize flour towards the end of the month. Healthcare problems linked to inadequate nutrition are becoming widespread among children. Who or what to blame? In someone responsible for this poor situation? If so, where are these people hiding? This is a question we need to ask. Everyone needs the answer to this question. Perhaps the present case is South Africa, but the problem in South Africa is also experienced in other countries to a greater or a lesser extent. It may come to be experienced in yet other countries. The cold headed, remorseless, reasonable and in any case attention worthy answer is that under the present economic system, the problem is a natural one and ought not to be treated unusually. This answer may seem repulsive or even disgusting to a lot of people. But in a free market economy the equilibrium of demand and supply determines the price. Prices rise if demand is greater than supply or if it increases faster than the supply. This is the decision of the marketplace. Because markets set fate and they are never wrong. Whatever the marketplace decides happens. The only decision maker can be the marketplace. Under the circumstances, profit is more important than happiness. The highest bidder takes the good or service on offer. Food is a good which can be purchased by the highest bidder. It is sad that those who cannot afford it have to die, but the marketplace cannot do anything about it. Are we then compelled to see the deaths caused by famine, as well as the sheer poverty and misery in the world as natural? These consequences may arise from the marketplace, but the marketplace has its actors. The decisions of these agents shape the markets. It might be better to focus on market makers. 95 percent of all supermarkets in South Africa belong to three firms: Sh oprite, Pick n Pay and Spar. A part of the South African press blames these three chains and their oligopolistic tendencies for the rise in the price of food. There ought to be competition in the free market. Increased profitability is the aim of every firm. Every firms should be in competition with others. The state is charged with maintaining the successful operation of the system.

AFRKADA ALIK ARTIYOR

13 02 2013

Kresel krizler ve blgesel artlar Afrikada durumu olumsuz etkilemeye devam ediyor Gney Afrikada hkmet ciddi bir sorun ile kar karya olmann rahatsz edici gerginliini yayor. Hkmet lkede gda fiyatlarnn her yl ortalama %9 artmasnn getirdii vahim sonu ile baa kamamaktan endie ediyor. Gney Afrika Cumhuriyetinde 12 milyon insan alk tehlikesi yayor. lkede sosyal durum giderek ktleiyor. Byk kentlerde dahi gdaya eriim birok insan iin zorlu bir konu halini ald. Artk dnyada pek ok lke iin olduu gibi Gney Afrika iin de neoliberalizm ve devletin varlk nedenleri atma halinde. Bu sre Gney Afrikann gelecei iin ok riskli srelerin balang noktasn da tekil edebilir. nk lkeler iin artk snr gvenlii ve devlet gvenlii gibi, gda gvenlii de ncelikli bir sorun halinde. Eer yurttalar gdaya eriemiyorsa, o lke iin kt bir gelecek asla srpriz saylmaz. O lkede babalar gece olduunda ocuklarnn yataa tok girmesini temin edemiyorsa, onlara ksa bir sre sonra hibir ey korkutucu grnmez Alk Salgn Hastalk Gibi Gney Afrikada yksek gelimilik dzeyine sahip bir tarm sektr var. Gney Afrikada tarm sektr geleneksel yntemlerle snrl kalmayp, endstriyel geliim salad. Bu sayede yksek verimlilik hedefi yakaland. Bu sayede Gney Afrika nemli bir tarm rnleri ihracats oldu. Gney Afrika nfusu her yl %1,1 artyor. 52 milyon nfusa sahip olan Gney Afrika, hem halk doyurup hem de ihracat srdrmek zor unda. Ama yksek gda fiyatlar ve kitlesel boyutlara varan isizlik, bu lkede gdaya eriim gcne sahip olanlarn saysn srekli azaltyor. eitli kaynaklardan derlenen istatistik verilerine gre, Gney Afrikada aileler btelerinin %20lik ksmn gda harcamalar iin kullanyorlar. Bu rakam gelimi lkelerde %10 seviyesinde. Gney Afrikada kent nfusu ok youn... Halkn yarsndan fazlas kentlerde yayor. rnein Kap kentinde halkn fakir kesimi btesinin yarsn temel gda maddelerinin tedarikinde kullanmak zorunda kalyor. Halkn nemli bir ksm her ayn sonuna doru sadece beyaz ekmek ve msr unu ile karnn doyurmaya gayret ediyor. ocuklar arasnda yetersiz beslenmeye bal salk sorunlar giderek yaygnlayor. Su Kimde, Nerede? Acaba bu vahim durumun bir sulusu var mdr? Eer varsa, bu sulu nerede saklanmaktadr? Bunun muhakkak zerinde durmak lazm. nk sorularn cevaplarna herkesin ihtiyac var. Belki konu Gney Afrika, ama Gney Afrikada yaanan bu sorun -daha az veya daha ok- baka lkelerde de yaanyor. Daha baka lkelerde de yaanabilir Soukkanl, az vicdanl, ok aklc ve her durumda dikkate alnmay hak eden cevap, mevcut ekonomik sistemde bu sonucun olaan olduu ve doal karlamak gerektii biimde olabilir. Bu cevap ou kimseye epeyce itici ve belki de iren grnebilir. Ama serbest pazar ekonomisinde fiyat arz ile talep arasndaki denge noktasnn hareketi belirler. Eer talep arzdan fazla olursa veya talep arzdan hzl ar tarsa fiyat artar. Bunun baka bir izahat piyasann karar eklinde olabilir. nk piyasalar kaderi belirler. Piyasalar asla yanlmaz. Piyasalar ne derse, o olur. nk tek karar verici sadece ve sadece piyasa olabilir. Bu artlarda kar insanlarn mutluluundan daha nemlidir. En yksek fiyat veren mal ve hizmeti alr. Gda da bir maldr ve parasn deyen alabilir. Alamayanlarn lmesi zcdr, ama piyasalarn elinden gelen bir ey de yoktur. O halde muazzam fakirlii ve sefaleti ya da aln neden olduu kitlesel lmleri doal grmek durumda olabilir miyiz? Bu sonucu piyasalar douruyor olabilir, ama nihayetinde piyasalarn da aktrleri var. O aktrlerin tercihleri piyasalar biimlendiriyor. Belki bu durumda piyasalar biimlendiren kurulular zerinde durmak gerekl i olabilir.

Gney Afrikada btn spermarketlerin %95i kurulua ait Bunlar Shoprite, PicknPa y ve Spar. Gney Afrika basnnn bir blm yksek gda fiyatlar iin tekelci eilimlere sahip olan zinciri gsteriyor. Elbette serbest ekonomide rekabet de olmas gerekir. Karll artrmak her firmann hedefidir. Her firma dier firmalarla rekabet ierisinde olmaldr. Devlet de sistemin baarl biimde ilemesini temin etmekle grevlidir.

THE HUGO CHAVEZ TEST

20 03 2013

World politics has lost an important and colourful character. we have brought together some unforgettable moments from his political career in this test. Here you may test yourself on your knowledge of the words and deeds of Chavez. 1. What did Hugo Chavez say to then US president George W. Bush after getting angry during a televised address to the people in 2006? a) I never liked you, and I liked your father even less. b) I must sadly declare that I do not approve of your policies. That you should take account of this point will benefit the interests of our two deep rooted states and of our friendly people. otherwise I am afraid that our agreement and cooperation will be endangered. c) You are an ignorant, donkey, Mr Dander. If I say it in my bad English: you are a donkey Mr Danger. Donkey Mr Bush. You are a coward, a murderer, a genocide criminal, an alcoholic, a liar, an immoral person Mr Danger. I know you are the worst on the planet, a psychologically sick man. 2. What did Hugo Chavez say about the Mexican leader Vicente Fox in 2005? a) Long live the great leader of the friendly and brotherly Mexican people! b) We do not agree with my Mexican counterpart Mr Vicente Fox on the matter of the relations with the USA and the extent of their alliance. c) How does the president of the Mexican people make himself the lapdog of an empire? 3. Chavez called on the Queen of England Elizabeth the Second to return the Falkland Islands to Argentina. What did he say in his message? a) Queen Elizabeth might pull us a favour for the solution to the Falklands problem. b) I am fully confident that her majesty the Queen will do all in her power to return the Falkland Islands, or the Malvinas Islands to the Argentinean people, to whom they belong. c) Listen Queen of England. Queen of England the empire is over. Do you not understand Queen of England? Return the Malvinas Islands to the Argentinean people, Queen of England! 4. In 2010, Chavez sang a song for Us Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (with whom he naturally did not get along) in the middle of a speech. What were the words to the song which Chavez had himself composed? a) I love you, even if you do not love me. b) If you just listened to my words, how much you would love me. c) Hillary Clinton does not like me and I dont like her. 5. Chavez made harsh statements against former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. What did he say? a) She is whatever she may have called me. b)I hereby ask that my opinion that certain remarks by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice are inappropriate and do not comply with the principle of relevance be registered by the international community and world public opinion and further state that it would be beneficial for Rice to refrain from any such remarks in the future. c) Little girl, do not forget that I am like the spiky tree on the plain. Do not mess with me Condoleezza. Do not mess with me little girl. 6. In 2006, Chavez took the stand to deliver a speech before the United Nations General Assembly when he remembered that Bush had given a speech from the same spot a day before. What did he say after crossing himself? a) This place smells of cheap cologne. b) I see that the negative energy of one of my counterparts who spoke here yesterday is still in the air. c) The devil was here yesterday. You can still smell the sulphur. 7. What did Chavez do with Bolivian leader Evo Morales during a visit to Bolivia? a) He played the guitar, danced and sang. b) He played baseball, posed for photos and planted a memorial tree. c) He chewed coca leaves. 8. Chavez was interviewed by the model Naomi Campbell. What did Chavez respond to Campbells question whether he w ould considering posing half naked like Putin? a) But I have a beer belly. b) I think that politicians and statesmen should highlight other qualities and priorities in front of the public and as part of their public relations efforts. c) Why not? Touch my muscles! 9. In a meeting Chavez upset the King of Spain Juan Carlos. What did the exasperated king shout out to Chavez?

a) Go away sonny! b) Please be silent, hold your breath! c) Shut up! The correct answers: 1-C (C for Chavez), 2-C (C for Chavez), 3-C (C for Chavez), 4-C(C for Chavez), 5-C (C for Chavez), 6-C (C for Chavez), 7-C (C for Chavez), 8-C (C for Chavez), 9-C (C for Chavez).

HUGO CHAVEZ TEST

13 03 2013

Dnya siyaseti nemli ve ok renkli bir ismi kaybetti. Onun siyaset hayatnn baz unutulmaz detaylarn bu testte bir araya getirdik. Hugo Chavez hakkndaki bilgilerinizi snayabilirsiniz. 1.Hugo Chavez 2006 ylnda bir televizyon programnda halkna hitap ederken, sinirlenip dnemin ABD Bakan George W. Bush iin u ifadelerden hangisini kullanmt? a) Ben seni hi sevmedim. Baban zaten sevmezdim. b)Politikalarnz tasvip etmediimi zntlerimle beraber dile getiriyorum. Bu hususu siyaset planlamalarnzda ve deerlend irmelerinizde dikkate almanzn, blgenin iki kkl devleti olanlarn bizlerin dost halklarmzn karlarna fayda salayaca kanaatindeyim. Aksi takdirde uzlamamzn ve ibirliini gelitirmemizin kolay olacan kanaatinde maalesef deilim. c)Seni zr cahil, eek, Bay Tehlike... Ya da kt ngilizcemle syleyeyim. Sen bir eeksin Bay Tehlike. Eek Sayn Bush. Sen bir korkaksn, katil, soykrm faili, alkolik, yalanc, ahlaksz bir kii, Bay Tehlike. En kts bu gezegenin, psikolojik olarak hasta bir adam, b iliyorum. 2.Hugo Chavez 2005 ylnda Meksika lideri Vicente Fox iin ne dedi? a) Dost ve karde sevgili Meksika halknn mfik lideri ok yaa! b) Meksikal makamdam Sayn Vicente Fox ile ABD ile ilikiler ve ittifak ilikilerin kapsam hususunda mutabk deiliz. c) Meksika halknn cumhurbakan kendini bir imparatorluun ss kpei haline nasl getirir? 3. Chavez, ngiltere Kraliesi 2. Elizabethden Falkland Adalar'n Arjantin'e iade etmesi iin arda bulundu. Bu arda n e dedi? a) Kralie Elizabeth bize Falkland sorunun zm iin bir iyilik yapar herhalde. b)Majesteleri Kralienin Falkland veyahut dier adyla Malvinas Adalarn gerek sahibi Arjantin halkna kavuturmak iin gerekli grecei admlar atacana kanaatim tamdr. c)ngiltere Kraliesi, sana sesleniyorum! ngiltere Kraliesi, artk imparatorluk bitti. Farknda deil misin ngiltere Kraliesi. Malvinaslar Arjantin halkna iade et ngiltere Kraliesi! 4. Chavez 2010 ylnda -doal olarak- asla anlama ihtimali olmayan dnemin ABD Dieri Bakan Hillary Clinton iin bir konumasnn ortasnda ark syledi. Kendi yazd arknn szleri neydi? a)Ben seni seviyorum, sen beni sevmesen de. b) Ah beni bir dinlesen, ne ok severdin beni. c)Hillary Clinton beni sevmiyor, ben de onu. 5. Chavez ABDnin eski Dileri Bakan Condoleezza Ricea ynelik sert aklamalar da yapt. Ne dedi? a) Bana ne dediyse, kendisi olsun! b)ABDDileri Bakan Condoleezza Ricen aklamalarnn uygunsuz olduu ve yerindelik ilkesiyle badamad ynndeki kana atimi uluslararas toplumun vicdanna ve dnya kamuoyunun hassasiyetine emanet ediyor, Ricen benzer aklamalardan imtina etmesinin faydal olacan ifade ediyorum. c)Kk kz, benim dz ovadaki bir diken aac gibi olduumu unutma. Benimle urama Condoleezza. Benimle urama, kk kz. 6. Chavez 2006 ylnda Birlemi Milletler Genel Kurulunda krsye geldiinde bir gn nce Bushun o krsden konutuunu hatrlatp, istavroz karp ne dedi? a) Buras ucuz parfm kokuyor. b)Dn burada konuan bir makamdamn olumlu olmayan enerjisinin halen buray etkilediini gryorum. c)eytan dn buradayd. Halen kkrt kokusunu alabiliyorsunuz 7. Chavez Bolivyay ziyaretinde Bolivya lideri Evo Morales ile beraber ne yapt? a)Gitar ald, dans etti, ark syledi. b)Beysbol oynad, fotoraf ektirdi, an aac dikti. c)Koka yapra inedi. 8. Chavez Manken Naomi Campbell'a rportaj verdi. Campbell rportajda Chaveze Putin gibi yar plak poz verip vermeyecei s ordu. Chavez ne dedi? a) Ama benim gbeim var. b) Ben siyasetilerin, devlet adamlarnn kamuoyu nnde ve halkla ilikiler almalar kapsamnda daha farkl zelliklerle ve daha farkl nceliklerle nemsenmelerini doru buluyorum. c) Neden olmasn? Kaslarma dokun!

9.Chavez bir toplantda spanya Kral Juan Carlosu da kzdrd. Sabr tkenen spanya Kral Chaveze ne diye bard? a)Olum bak, git! b) Ltfen skunet buyurunuz, nefesinizi tutunuz! c)Kapa eneni! Cevaplar: 1-C (Chavezin Csi), 2-C (Chavezin Csi), 3-C (Chavezin Csi), 4-C(Chavezin Csi), 5-C (Chavezin Csi), 6-C (Chavezin Csi), 7C (Chavezin Csi), 8-C (Chavezin Csi)., 9-C (Chavezin Csi)

ADIOS CHAVEZ!
20 03 2013

Hugo Chavez was born in 1954 as the son of a teacher. He entered the Venezuelan Military Academy at the age of seven. He died in 2013. He led an unusual life. According to some he was a commander: El Commandante. For others we was the Compeiro Presidente: the comrade president. Those who liked him saw in him a second Simon Bolivar. Those who did not like him dubbed him the tropical Mussolini. One way or the other he left his mark on world politics and in the world of ideas. His smile, his over the top style and his penchant for the crowd and the cameras will not soon be forgotten. Hugo Chavez stands a good chance at becoming one of the most popular cinema characters. Hugo Chavez first took an active interest in politics in 1992 and founded the anti-government Bolivarian Revolution Movement (Movimiento Bolivariano Revolucionario). According to him, the whole of -Latin America should be shaped according to the principles of Simon Bolivar. Bolivarism soon came to be heard of. Hugo Chavez attempted a coup dtat which failed and he retreated. Although his coup was not successful, it kick started his political career and won him popular support. He was jailed, served his time and set up the party the Fifth Republic Movement (Movimiento Quinta Repblica) once out of jail in 1994. In 1998 he accused the government of failure, corruption and misadministration. Chavez ran in the elections. He declared himself the hero of the poor and the nightmare of the oligarchy and won the elections. His first job was to change the constitution. In 2000 Chavez was re-elected. He changed the official name of the country to the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Venezuela, which was the worlds third largest exported of oil soon entered an economic crisis. The fall in oil prices as a result of fluctuations on the world market struck a heavy blow against the countrys economy. Internal difficulties in Venezuela led to Chavez being relieved on his duties. The people were very upset with new agriculture and oil policies and strikes came one after another. But for Chavez this was far from being the end. In 2004, Chavez made a comeback. The rise in the price of oil on the international markets provided the rise in income the country needed and thus the Chavez government had the funds to fight social injustice in the country. Chavez immediately began the implementation of the Bolivar Plan. The plan, which meant the sharing of the countrys wealth with th e people led to improvements in the countrys health infrastructure, fight with poverty, prevention of hunger, improvements in education, hou sing, work guarantees, strengthening of social security and womens rights. While Chavez did all this he respected the people and met their demand to be respected. Chavez never enjoyed good relations with the USA and never tried. On the contrary Chavez tried to enter warm relations with every country that was in the list of countries the USA did not like such as North Korea, Libya, Iran, Cuba, Belarus and Syria. It needs to be said that a country such as Venezuela should have had friends among countries not run b a dictatorship. On the other hand, due to his anti-American attitude, Chavez ended his relations with the IMF and the World Bank in 2007. In 2011 he refused cancer treatment in the USA and preferred Cuba. Chavez won four election victories until his death. Chavez is remembered for his colourful performances and political stance. There are no other leaders who sings to his people in a big hat and with a guitar, who presents a food show on TV, who dances and cheers at football games. One way or the other, Chavez changed his country Venezuela and the rest of Latin America. Chavez lent support to Cuba and made use of the rich human resources of Cuba to improve healthcare infrastructure in his country. He nationalised tens of thousands of hectares of land belonging to transnational corporations and distributed them to the Venezuelan rural poor. He did use the funds of his country for the poor but it needs to be seen that Chavez rise to power and the peoples great affection for him were the result of previous periods. If the people had not been so overlooked in Venezuela, if they had not been so impoverished and denied so many opportunities, they may have never thought to vote for Chavez. As Chavez fought social injustice, he reminded the Venezuelan people that they had a right to be respected. Perhaps he was not as charismatic, handsome, elegant and polite as his model Simon Bolivar, but he was likeable, sincere and always one of the people. Until his time Venezuela had never been so effective within Latin America. Venezuela had not been heard of so often around the world. Chavez policies which earned him the support of the poor were populist. As Chavez gave freely to the poor who made up the majority of the population of his country, he established a dictatorship of the majority. He crossed the line between majority rule in democracy and majority dictatorship. Venezuela became a country where the poor were rewarded and those who were not poor were economically punished. Had Chavez not constantly divided society and had different segments of it in constant conflict, he may have achieved even more in Venezuela. Chavez nationalised not only large patches of land but also mines. Thus he broke his connections to the global economic system and many accepted economic principles. The countrys large oil reserves and high oil income were enough for his aims. Nevertheless the misuse of nationalised agricultural land led to Venezuela having to import food and to food shortages when the prices were frozen by the government: showing that Chavezs Bolivarism and socialism were not functioning healthily. Chavez made a great effort for political, financial and economic cooperation between Latin American countries. His design of 21 st century socialism will probably not last. But it will lead to individuals in Latin American societies being relentlessly demanding over certain basic rights and freedoms. If the regimes in the region seek correct, rational and compromising policies, this may be Chavez great contributio n to politics.

The route Venezuela will take after Chavez is a mystery for everyone at the moment. The people of Venezuela will pro bably honour Chavezs legacy for at least another election period. But it will not be easy for a regime which is only partially functional and which rests on internal conflict among the people to survive in the absence of Chavez.

ADOS CHAVEZ!
13 03 2013

Hugo Chavez 1954 ylnda retmen bir babann olu olarak dodu. Venezella Askeri Akademisine girdiinde yedi yandayd. 2013 ylnda ld. Farkl ve sra d bir hayat yaad. Kimine gre komutand; El Commandante. Kimi iin Compeiro Presidente idi, yolda bakan Onu sevenler adeta ikinci bir Simon Bolivar gibi grdler. Onu sevmeyenler ise Tropikal Mussolini diye alay ettiler. yle ya da byle dnya siyasetinde, fikir hayatnda bir iz brakt. Glmsemesi, taknlklar, kalabalklara ve kameralara zaaf hafzalarda yer etti. Belki ksa zamanda olmaz, ama Hugo Chavez bir sre sonra en popler sinema filmi karakterlerinden birisi olacak. Hugo Chavez siyasetle ilk defa 1992 ylnda aktif biimde ilgilendi ve iktidar kart Bolivar Devrimi (Movimiento Bolivariano Revolucionario) adl hareketi kurdu. Ona gre btn Latin Amerika Simon Bolivarn ilkelerine gre biimlenmeliydi. Bolivarclk veya Bolivarizm adn yava yava duyurmaya balad. Hugo Chavez hemen devamnda darbe giriiminde bulundu, baarsz oldu ve geri ekildi. Ama darbe giriimi baarsz olsa da, darbe giriimi sayesinde siyasi atlm baarl oldu ve halk desteini kazand. Hapse girdi, kt ve serbest kalnca 1994 ylnda Beinci Cumhuriyet Hareketi (Movimiento Quinta Repblica ) adl partiyi kurdu. 1998 ylnda mevcut hkmeti baarszlkla, yolsuzlukla ve kt ynetimle sulad. Chavez seimlerde aday oldu. Kendisini fakirlerin kahraman, oligarinin korkulu ryas ilan etti ve seimleri kazand. lk ii anayasay deitirmek oldu. Chavez 2000 ylnda tekrar seildi. lkenin adn Bolivarc Venezella Cumhuriyeti eklinde deitirdi. Dnyann nc en byk petrol ihracats Venezella ksa sre sonra ekonomik krize girdi. Kresel konjonktrde yaanan dal galanmalar sonucu petrol fiyatlarnn dmesi lke ekonomisine ar bir darbe indirdi. Bunun sonucunda lkede i karklklar ba gsterdi ve yaanan dalgalanmalarn sonucunda Chavez grevden alnd. nk halk yeni tarm ve petrol politikalarndan son derece rahatszd ve grevler pe pee geldi. Ama Chavez iin yolun sonuna daha ok vard. Chavez 2004 ylnda bir kez daha geri dn yaad. Uluslararas piyasalarda petrol fiyatlarnda yaanan art lkenin ihtiya duyduu gelir artn temin etti ve bu sayede Chavez iktidar lkede sosyal adaletsizliklerle mcadele edecek kaynaa kavutu. Chavez derhal Bolivar Plan adn verdii plann uygulamaya koydu. zetle lkenin servetini halka paylatrmak anlamna gelen bu plan sayesinde lkede salk altyapsnn desteklenmesi, yoksullukla mcadele, aln nlenmesi, eitimsizliin giderilmesi, barnma imknlarnn artrlmas, i gvencesi ve sosyal gvenlik konularnn glendirilmesi ve kadn haklar gibi konularda nemli gelimeler salad. Chavez bunlar yaparken, ayn zamanda Venezella halkna sayg da gsterdi ve halkn sayg grme ihtiyacn da karlad. Chavez hibir zaman ABD ile iyi ilikiler ierisinde olmad, hatta bunu hibir zaman da denemedi. Chavez onun yerine ABDnin sevmedii lkeler li stesinde yer alan her lke ile yaknlamaya gayret etti. Kuzey Kore, Libya, ran, Kba, Belarus ve Suriye gibi lkelerle ilikilerini gelitirmek iin youn aba harcad. Ak bir ekilde ifade etmek lazm; Venezella gibi bir lkenin diktatrlkle ynetilmeyen lkelerden de dostlarn olmas daha yerinde olabilirdi Dier taraftan ABD kart tutumu dolaysyla 2007de Uluslararas Para Fonu ve Dnya Bankas ile btn ilikilerine son verdi. Hatta 2011 ylnda ABDde kanser tedavisi grmeyi ret edip, Kbay tercih etti. Chavez lnceye kadar drt defa seim zaferi kazand. Akllarda hem renkli grntleri hem de siyasi duruu ile kald. Banda byk apka ve elinde gitarla halkna arklar syle yen, televizyonlarda yemek program yapan, dans eden, malarda tezahrat yapan bir baka lider yok. Chavez yle ya da byle hem lkesi Venezellay hem de Latin Amerikay deitirdi. Chavez Kbann ayakta kalmasn salad ve Kbann zengin insan kaynandan faydalanarak, lkesinde salk altyapsnn gelitirilmesini salad. okuluslu irketlerin on binlerce hektarlk topran milliletirdi ve Venezellal kyllere datt. lkesinin parasn fakir halk iin kulland, ama belki de u adan bakmak lazm; Chavezin iktidara gelii ve halknn onu bu kadar byk bir akla sevme si, ondan nceki dnemin haslasnn sonucuydu. Eer Venezellada halk bu kadar gz ard edilmeseydi, bu kadar fakirlemeseydi ve bu kadar ok imknd an mahrum yaamasayd, belki de akllara Chaveze oy vermek hi gelmezdi. Chavez sosyal adaletsizlerle mcadele ederken, Venezella halkna sayg grmeye hakk olduunu hatrlatt. Belki model ald Simon Bolivar kadar karizmatik, yakkl, elegant ve nazik deildi, am a sevimliydi, itendi ve daima onlardan birisiydi. Venezella onun dnemine kadar Latin Amerikada hi bu kadar etkili olmamt. Venezella dnyada adn da hi bu kadar ok duyurmamt. Chavezin srtn yoksullara dayamasn salayan politikalar elbette poplistti. Chavez lkesinde ounluu meydana getiren fakirlere istediklerini diledii gibi verirken, aslnda ounluk diktatrl kurdu. Demokrasilerdeki ounluun iktidar ve ounluun kararlar ile ounluk diktatrl arasndaki tehlikeli snr ald. Venezella fakirlerin sevindirildii, ama fakir olmayanlarn da bu nedenle ekonomik anlamda cezalandrld bir lke oldu. ayet Chavezin srekli biimde toplumu kampla blen tutumu ve toplumun katmanlarn birbiriyle kartlk ilikisi ne girmeye zorlayan tutumu olmasa, belki de Venezellada yaptklarndan daha fazlasn baarm olurdu. Chavez sadece byk tarm arazilerini deil, madenleri de milliletirdi. Chavez bylelikle kresel ekonomi ile ve kresel sistemin, ekonominin ou temel kavram ile kprlerini artt. Byk petrol rezervleri ve yksek petrol geliri onun lkesi iin koyduu hedefler ve onun ngrleri iin yeterliydi. Fakat yine de milliletirilen tarm arazilerinin yanl ve eksik kullanm sonucunda gda ithalat yaplmak zorunda kalmas ve fiyatlarn devlet emriyle dondurunca piyasada yaanan gda maddesi sknts, Chaveznin Bolivarizm adna ve sosyalizm balyla srdrd srecin ok salkl ilemediini de gsteriyordu. Chavez Latin Amerika lkelerinin siyasi, mali, ticari ve iktisadi ibirlii iin de byk gayret gsterdi. Muhtemelen onun tasarlad 21. Yzyl sosyalizmi kalcla sahip olmayacak. Ama Latin Amerika toplumlarnda bireylerin baz temel hak ve hrriyetler konusunda tav izsiz biimde talepkar olmalarn salayacak. ayet blgedeki rejimler dorucu, aklc ve uzlamac politikalara ynelirlerse, Chavezin en olumlu miras ve siyasete katks bu olabilir.

Chavezden sonra Venezellann izleyecei rota imdiden herkes iin merak konusu. Muhtemelen Venezella halk Chavezin mirasna bir sre daha en azndan bir seim sresi daha sadk kalacaktr. Ama ksmen ileyen ve halkn kendi i elikilerine ve i atmalarna dayanan bir rejimin kalcln muhafaza etmesi, Chavez faktrnn de olmad bir ortamda kesinlikle kolay olmaz.

IS GLOBAL SECURITY POSSIBLE NOW?

20 03 2013

As global circumstances change once more As US President Obama came into office for the first time, his security agenda was set: Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, prevention of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, the global crisis, fight against international terrorism and efforts at reconciliation with Russia. But what now? Since then the USA has finalised its war in Iraq. It has also come up with a short time period for the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. The differences of opinion within the international community regarding Irans nuclear programme has lessened considerably. The global system has begun to exert more pressure on Iran. Sanctions and isolating measures were developed later on. The USA, the European Union and the UN came to an agreement on the matter. The sanctions described by Iran as the harshest in history still apply and ay become even tougher. The grounds for diplomatic manoeuvre over Iran, as well as the time diplomats are given have diminished considerably. If diplomatic efforts are to succeed, Tehran will have to negotiate at a table. The USA has concerns which take priority over Iran: such as the economic crisis. When Obama first took office, the global economic conditions were very bad. The global crisis still continues. Many American households are having a hard time. The situation in the USA is somewhat better compared to four or five years ago. However, that the USA should lower its debt burden is very important for the US economy, American society and the stability of the global economy. If the USA does not lower its debt burden, the instability which will arise will resonate at a global level. Meanwhile, the USA has decided to make savings worth USD 1 trillion over the coming decade to ensure economic recovery. It also intends to raise tax revenue by USD 600 billion. This may have different results in different states of the USA. Different outcomes may trigger different reactions. Anyone trading with the USA will be affected by the developments. The USA needs to contribute more to global welfare and stability and to carry out greater engagement over global security in partnership with the European Union. In this context, certain fiscal and economic responsibilities will arise for the USA and the European Union. This is a dilemma. It may have a magical solution but most likely it will not be easily solved. The European Union is still to display credible and tangible success with regard to the Euro crisis. Nevertheless, many including the USA, are congratulating European institutions for their success in fighting the crisis in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. This is probably just diplomatic courtesy. For the performance of the European institutions in fighting the crisis in Greece is there to be seen. The measures and methods of the European Union have not worked. Yet it insists on the same means. The USA has been advising the European Union t o ensure growth and employment in the Eurozone. It is crucial for the USA that the problems of the Eurozone are alleviated. The a nnual trade volume of the USA with the Eurozone is around USD 600 billion. Trade across the Atlantic ensures employment for millions of people. If the USDA and the European Union cannot maintain the necessary solidarity and harmony over the economy and crisis management, there may be poor consequences. From the USAs point of view, if Brussels mistakes cause other crisis in European Union countries and the Euro zone, the economy and politics of the USA will also be hurt. The security of the USA would be compromised. Meanwhile, asymmetrical threats towards the USA continue to be present. Although there may be a lack of information regarding the matter, the USA has gained significant ground in its fight against al-Qaeda and derivative organisations. Nevertheless, it cannot be claimed that the USA is in control of the whole of Iraq and Afghanistan. Such a claim cannot be made for Libya either: the killing of Ambassador Chris Stevens and three embassy personnel in Benghazi sums up the situation. Sub-Saharan Africa is probably just as out of control. The eastern Mediterranean, the Northern and Southern Gulf Regions are also tumultuous. Many countries such as Libya, Egypt, Syria, Iran, Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia and others come to the fore in this respect, not to mention North Korea. The USA cannot prevent risks arising in a significant part of the world, in terms of population as well as land area. The continuation of the global crisis cause problems in the poorer parts of the world to become chronic. Immigrants and illegal immigrants in developed parts of the world also fall under this heading. Indeed, the bottom rung, those who are pushed out of the system in developed countries as a whole belong in this categories. The USA will probably pursue a cost-benefit analysis to set up and develop friendly regimes in those countries which it wants on its side through development aid and cooperation projects. In order not to waste resources in risk producing regions, the USA will try to take indirect control of crisis zones by limiting them. The USA has come to understand that its national security or global security cannot be maintained through expending thousands of troops and billions of dollars over millions of square miles of foreign territory. Instead, the USA prefers to cooperate more with regional actors and international organisations such as the UN, the NATO and the G8. Mali is a good example of this. The USA has worked together with the Mali government, the UN, France and the African Union. It provided intelligence to the Mali government and France. It supported the transfer of French and African troops. It gave fuelling aid to French aircraft. Thus it ensured that the AQIM organisation took a heavy blow and stay away from US interests. But the USA was not easily seen doing all this and did not draw much reaction. Although this model may have worked in Mali, it did not work in Syria. That this formula did not work in Syria has a lot to do with the lack of success of the restart initiative the USA attempted in its relations with Russia about four years ago. There is no chance that the sides will agree on every matter. Moscow and Washington enjoy relatively close relations with regard to the prevention of proliferation of nuclear arms, Afghanistan, Russias membership of the WTO, development of US -Russian bilateral

trade and economic relations, prevention of terrorism, use of nuclear energy for civilian purposes and even partially on sanctions on Iran and North Korea. However regarding Syria, the missile shield project and NATO enlargement and human rights, Russia will not accept compromise. The USA will never recognise the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which are supported by Moscow. Nevertheless the sides can successfully display the political will necessary to protect and develop mutual interests in many fields. The USA will have to be more active over South East Asia (the Asia-pacific) and Latin America from now on. The political and economic developments in both regions point to Washington having to make a lot of effort to maintain stability in these regions. The NATO may soon have to become active in the Pacific once again. Europe will continue to maintain its central position in the world for the USA. Europe is the engine of global cooperation for the USA. Common interests, concerns and agenda determine everything. Europe has provided 30,000 civilian personnel and USD 15 billion worth of financial support in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the missile shield defence project is now at the centre of the aerial defence system of both sides of the Atlantic. The USA desires the European Unions integration process with Georgia and south eastern European countries to be managed more effectively and rapidly. Recently the USA has been emphasising the regional leadership and central position of Brazil, China, South Africa and Indonesia in economic and security matters. This group of countries are those which the USA talks seriously and does not want problems with. But it is certain that the global security architecture will have to change radically.

KRESEL GVENLK (ARTIK) MMKN M?

13 03 2013

Kresel artlar yeniden deiirken ABD Bakan Obama greve balarken gvenlik konusunda gndemi kesindi; Irak, Afganistan, ran, kitle imha silahlarnn yaylmasnn nlenmesi, kresel kriz, uluslararas terrizmle mcadele ve Rusya ile yaknlama abalar Ama imdi Acaba? ABD geen srede Irakta sava sona erdirdi. Ayrca Afganistandan askeri ekilme srecini de ksa bir takvime balad. Geen sre zarfnda uluslararas toplumun rann nkleer silahlanma programna ilikin yaad gr ayrlklar da ciddi biimde azald. Bunun sonucunda kresel sistem ran konusunda daha fazla bask uygulamaya balad. Devamnda da yaptrmlar ve yaltm salayan ek tedbirler geliti. ABD, Avrupa Birlii ve Birlemi Milletler bu konuda uzlat. rann tarihin en sert yaptrmlar diye tanmlad uygulama halen devrede ve daha da sertletirilebilir. ran konusunda diplomasinin hareket serbestisi hzla azalyor. Diplomatlara ayrlan zaman da yle. Eer diplomatik abalar sonu verirse, Tahran masada olmaya ve mzakere etmeye mecbur kalacak. Fakat ABD iin ran konusundan daha ncelikli konular da var. rnein ekonomik kriz gibi Obama ilk defa bakan koltuuna oturduund a kresel ekonomik durum ok kt bir durumdayd. Kresel kriz halen devam ediyor. Birok ABDli aile ok zor evrede yayor. ABDde ekonomik durum 4-5 yl ncesine gre daha iyi. ABD asndan ekonomik durum -kanlmaz biimde- milli gvenliin nemli bir paras. ABDnin ekonomi zerindeki bor ykn azaltmas, hem ABD ekonomisi ve ABD toplumu hem de kresel sistemin istikrar iin ok nemli. Eer ABD bor ykn azaltamazsa, buradan doacak istikrarszlk kresel lekte arpan etkisine sahip olabilir. Ama dier taraftan ABDnin ekonomik iyilemeyi temin etmek iin nmzdeki on yl iin toplam bir trilyon USD tasarruf karar ald. Ayrca ABDnin vergi gelirini 600 milyar USD artrma hedefi de var. Bu artlar ABDde farkl eyaletlerde farkl sonular dourabilir. Farkl sonular farkl tepkiler de retebilir. Kukusuz ABD ile ticaret yapan herkesin bundan etkilenmesi kanlmaz olur. ABD asndan Avrupa Birlii ile beraber kresel istikrara ve kresel refaha daha byk katk salamak ve kresel gvenlik i in daha byk angajman temin etmek gerekiyor. Elbette bu kapsamda hem ABD hem de Avrupa Birlii iin birtakm mali ve iktisadi sorumluluklar da sz konusu. Burada elikili bir durum sz konusu Belki bu elikinin sihirli bir zm vardr. Ama u soruna kesin bir zm bulmak o kadar kolay olmayabilir; Avrupa Birlii halen Avro Krizi konusunda inandrc ve somut baar gsteren admlar atmad. Her ne kadar ve her nedense herkes Avrupa kurumlarn Yunanistan, rlanda, Portekiz, spanya ve talyada krizle mcadele salad baardan dolay kutluyor. Bunlara ABD de dhil. Bu kutlama muhtemelen diplomatik nezaket gerei. nk Avrupa kurumlarnn Yunanistanda krizle mcadele konusunda ortaya koyduu performans ortada. Avrupa Birliinin uygulad tedbirler ve bavurduu yntemler sonu vermedi. Ama yine de srarla ayn yo lda devam ediliyor. ABDnin Avrupa Birliine Avro blgesinde bymeyi salamay ve istihdam artn temin etmeyi tavsiye ediyor. ABD asndan Avro Blgesinin sorunlarn hafifletmesi ok nemli. nk ABDnin bu blge ile yllk ticaret hacmi 600 milyar USD seviyesinde. Baka bir deyile taraflar arasndaki ticaret milyonlarca kiiye istihdam salyor. Eer ABD ve Avrupa Birlii ekonomi konusunda ve krizle mcadelede gerekli dayanmay ve ahengi srdremezse ok kt sonular oluabilir. ABDnin penceresinden bakarsak, Brkselin hatalar Avrupa Birlii lkelerinde veya Avro Blgesinde baka buhranlara neden olursa, ABD ekonomisi de ABD siyaseti de bundan zarar grr. O nedenle ABD gvenlii bunu tolere edeme z. Bu arada ABD asndan asimetrik tehdit devam ediyor. Her ne kadar bu konuda enformasyon a olsa da, bilindii kadaryla ABD El Kaide ve trev rgtlere kar savanda byk avantajlar elde etti. Fakat yine de ABDnin ne Irakta ne de Afganistanda her yere hakim olduu iddia edilemez. Keza Libya iin de byle bir iddia dile getirilemez. Nihaye tinde Bingazide ABD diplomatik misyonunu hedef alan saldr ve Bykeli Chris Stevens ile elilik alannn ldrlmesi durumun zeti gibi. Bugn iin Msr iin de ok gvenli demek mmkn deil. Buna elbette Pakistann nemli bir blmn de sayabiliriz. Muhtemelen Sahrann st gibi, Sahrann alt da bu alana dhil kabul edilebilir. Dou Akdeniz de, Kuzey Krfez Blgesi de, Gney Krfez Blgesi de bu alana dahil. Libya, Msr, Suriye, ran, Filistin, Pakistan, Irak, Afgani stan, Yemen, Somali ve daha baka lkeler burada ne kyor. Elbette ayrca Kuzey Kore de var.

Her durumda ABD asndan dnya yzlmnn nemli bir blmnde ve dnya nfusunun nemli bir ksmnda kendi gvenlii iin risk retilmesini nleyemiyor. Kresel krizin devamllk kazanmas, dnyann fakir blgelerindeki sorunlarn kroniklemesi sonucunu douruyor. Elbette buna gelimi lkelerde yasal gmen veya yasad gmen olarak yaayanlar da eklemek lazm. Hatta buna gelimi lkelerde en alttakileri ve sistem dna itilenleri de eklemek uygun olur. ABD byk olaslkla fayda -maliyet hesab yaparak, kalknma yardmlar ve ibirlii projeleri ile yannda grmeyi umduu ve karsnda yer almasn arzu etmedii lkelerde dost rejimler kurulmasna, gelimesine yardmc olacak. Ayrca ABD kaynak ziyan etmemek hem de kaynaklarn risk reten blgelerde tketmemek iin, kriz blgelerini snrlayarak, dolayl biimde kontrol altna almaya alacaktr ABD milli gvenliini -veyahut kresel gvenlii - korumak iin, milyonlarca kilometrekarelik yabanc topraklarda, yz milyarlarca USD ve binlerce asker harcayarak bir sonu alamayacan grd. ABD bunun yerine giderek daha fazla biimde Birlemi Milletler, NATO, G8, b lgesel aktrler ve uluslararas kurulularla ibirlii ierisinde olmay tercih ediyor. Buna Mali rneini vermek doru olur; ABD Mali konusunda hem Mali hem Birlemi Milletler hem Fransa hem de Afrika Birlii ile beraber alt. Fransann abalarn aktif biimde destekledi. Mali ynetimine ve Fransaya istihbarat destei salad. Fransz ve Afrikal birliklerin nakliyesini temin etti. Fransz uaklarnn yakt nakline yardmc oldu. Bylece ABD AQIM rgtnn ar darbe almasn salad, rgtn zayflamasn ve ABD snrlarndan uzak kalmasn salad. Ama ABD bunlar yaparken hi grnmedi, gze batmad, tepki uyandrmad. Ancak bu model Malide baar salasa da, Suriyede ie yaramad. Dier taraftan sz konusu formln Suriyede ie yaramamasnn perde arkasnda ABDnin Rusya ile ilikilerinde yaklak drt yl nce balatmay denedii yeniden balama (restart) giriiminin baarszl var. Her ne sebeple olursa olsun, taraflarn her konuda mutabk olmas ihtimali yok. Moskova ve Washington DC nkleer silahlarn yaylmasnn nlenmesi, Afganistan, Rusyann Dnya Ticaret rgtne katlm, ABD -Rusya ikili ticari ve iktisadi ilikilerinin gelitirilmesi, terrizmle mcadele, sivil amal nkleer enerji konusunda ibirlii ve hatta ksmen ran iin yaptrmlar ve Kuzey Kore konularnda taraflar birbirilerine yakn tutumlara sahipler. Ama insan haklar, Suriye, fze kalkan ve NATOnun genileme sreci bata olmak zere Moskova uzlamay tercih etmeyecei sahalar da varln srdryor. ABD de Rusyann destekledii Abhazyann ve Gney Osetyann bamszln asla tanmyor. Ama yine de taraflar pek ok konuda ortak karlar korumak ve gelitirmek iin gereken siyasi ir adeyi baarl biimde ortaya koyabiliyorlar. ABD Gney Dou Asya (Asya-Pasifik) ve Latin Amerika konusunda da bundan sonra daha da aktif olmak zorunda olacak gibi grnyor. Nitekim her iki blgedeki siyasi ve iktisadi gelimeler Washington DCnin bu blgelerdeki istikrarn korunmas ve pekitirilmesi iin daha youn aba harcayacana iaret ediyor. NATO yakn zamanda yeniden Pasifik blgesinde etkili olmak zorunda kalabilir. ABD iin Avrupa kresel sistemdeki merkezi konumunu srdrecek. ABD iin Avrupa kresel ibirliinin motoru konumunda. Ortak karlar, ortak kayglar ve ortak gndem her eyi belirliyor. rnein Avrupa Afganistanda 30.000 sivil ve askeri personel ve 15 milyar USD mali destek salad. Ayrca fze kalkan projesi de Atlantikin iki yakasnn da hava savunma sisteminin temeline yerleti. ABD Avrupa Birliinin Grcistan ve Gney Dou Avrupa lkeleri ile entegrasyon srelerini daha faydal ve hzl srdrmesini arzuluyor. ABD son dnemde sklkla Brezilya, in, Gney Afrika ve Endonezyann ekonomi ve gvenlik meselelerinde blgesel liderlikleri ni ve merkezi konumlarn vurguluyor. Bu grupta yer alan lkeler ayn zamanda ABDnin nemsedii ve sorun istemedii lkeler olarak da nitelenebilir. Ama kesin olan bir ey varsa, kresel gvenlik mimarisi kkl biimde deiecek, buna mecbur.

WHAT WILL BE NEW DURING OBAMAS NEW TERM?

20 03 2013

Will there be a paradigm change in US foreign policy? It is the start of Us President Obamas new term. The new Secretary of State is John Kerry. Sometimes a change of name signif ies a change of policy or style. The key to understanding US foreign policy in the coming four years m ay be this change, or indeed change in general. Obama Inherited Major Problems Obamas first term saw important changes. The young black president was effective when he urged calm and a lowering of tensio ns to the world public opinion. As Obama moved into the White House, his army was stuck in the mountains of Afghanistan. It was also looking for a way out of the deserts of Iraq. His predecessor George W. Bushs character and policies had caused a rise in anti -American attitude around the world. In the Arab world especially opposition to the USA was most widespread. Therefore the risk of asymmetrical threats towards US interests and global terrorism had reached very high levels. Other than these the new president had to fight the global financial crisis. That crisis could have reached proportions capable of first ending the American Dream and later America itself. Obamas Performance Regarding almost all of these problems, Obama made serious progress during his first term. He won significant victories against global terrorism, particularly thanks to unmanned aerial drones. The killing of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was among his more important successes. In the Middle East and North Africa, the Obama administration supported regime change. But this time Washington used clever policies as well as clever sanctions and clever weapons. Obama did not pressurise his allies. He did not force the countries of the world to pick sides. Obama used local opposition, democratic groups, social movements, regional actors and international law for regime change in the Middle east and North Africa. Obama was careful not to make US political and military influence too conspicuous. For the USA, the Iraq and Afghanistan files may now be considered successes. There has been some progress regarding the economic crisis. It is certain that the USA stands in a better position

regarding the crisis than the European Union. Some severe cuts and reforms may come up in the remainder of 2013, along with the new budget but things are going better in the USA than in Europe and this is likely to remain this way. Obamas Desk From the previous information we may assume that the US President has a tidier desk compared to previous years with fewer agenda items. This is not true. The economic crisis will remain on the Us agenda for the next four or five years at least. A spike in the Dow Jones Index makes no difference. Surveys, statistics and data regarding unemployment, consumption and confidence may offer false hope. The USA is the most indebted country in the world and is producing less and less. Unemployment figures are at a critical level. Welfare is falling and labour is becoming cheaper. What is the case for the world at large is the case for the USA: the worst is yet to come. The Dragons Breath Other files are piling up in the Oval Office. China is a very important matter. The USA and China have developed a very complex web of relations. Although Beijing and Washington may be rivals, each can take the other one down with them. If one of them grows stronger, so does the others. Mutual interdependence and the principle of coexistence and working together have formed a point of balance. But that the USA should define itself as a Pacific country along with all of its other commitments and definitions shows that the bilateral and multilateral ties along the Washington-Beijing axis will come under increasing pressure. China, with its population of 1.3 billion presents an opportunity and a risk for the USA. China is the worlds second largest economy and the USAs second most important trade partner. China holds a significant amount of US government bonds. China is an important field of investment for American companies and a key to economic growth through foreign trade. China has made it more difficult to export raw materials from the country and has made US access to badly needed raw materials more difficult. Furthermore, Beijing keeps its public purchases market closed. It does not meet demands regarding the protection of copyrights. It is known that Beijing has increased non-tariff obstacles to the entry of foreign goods into the Chinese market. China thus gains unfair advantages and hurts US firms. Chinese firms thus gain superiority not only in their domestic and the US markets, but also in the markets of third countries. The Chinese advantage in procuring raw material deals and public tenders in many third countries is an important problem for the USA. Meanwhile, South East Asia is about to explode. Countries in the region may not be able to maintain stability. The regional tensions may have an impact on the global and economic conjecture. The conflict between Japan and China, the social issues in India, rising risks in North Korea and processes effective in countries such as Thailand and Burma all point to the same danger. The Russian Federation is also involved in the balance. On the 12th of November 2011, the USA had taken an important step and signed the Trans-pacific Partnership Agreement with Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Chile, Malaysia, New Zeeland, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. In 2010 US exports to the Asia-Pacific region grew by 25.5 percent to USD 775 billion. This corresponded to 61 percent of the total exports of the USA in 2010. Can Vodka Come Any Harder? Moscow is concerned with almost every move the USA makes. It is certain that the Kremlin and the White House are not viewing each other with trust. Moscow thinks that the USA wants a change of government, regime and system in Russia and backs up demands to this end. Russia is also unhappy of US pressure through the missile shield and similar projects. The distribution of transit routes and energy resources in the Arctic circle may remain a cause of conflict for a long time to come. There are also serious differences of opinion in every field ranging from the view of third countries to energy policies. From the Arab Spring to the Arab Hell Syria may be given as a concrete example for the above point. The Arab Spring may be a code for democratic right demands, but much blood has been shed. There are great regional, even global, risks present in Libya, Egypt and Syria. Much worse, the United Nations Security Council may be paralysed in every similar matter from now on. By way of explaining how likely this is, and ho terrible the outcome will be; consider that the problems in Egypt which are increasingly complex and which seem unlikely to subside grow. What will happen if an armed radical group attains partial or full regional power and gains control of the Suez Canal? If the UN Security Council cannot take a decision on this and if the UN cannot impose any sanctions, anything may happen. In his new terms Obama should ensure that the UN becomes a stronger body. Those aged below 30 make up 60 percent of the population of North Africa and the Middle East. 50 percent of the total population of these countries is younger than 21. 40 percent of the population in the region is younger than 18. Without an effective healthcare infrastructure, strong education system, stable business life and the rule of the law, these countries will continue producing the unemployed, the homeless and terrorists for decades to come. A country which has learned the right lessons from previous global processes will seek to solve the problem at its root for its own stability and security and the future and welfare of its own citizens and firms. This is what the USA is doing. The African Spring Not unrelated to the previous issue, Africa is a difficult subject for the US administration. Competition between the USA, Russia, China and the European Union over many fields, such as food energy and construction is very tough. Of the ten fastest growing economies in the world, seven are situated in Africa. China has more investment in all of these countries than does the USA. Very large fields of natural gas and oil have been discovered in Mozambique. Africa is open to all sorts of possibilities; the Sahel region especially has become a refuge of radical groups and fanatics who prefer violence as a political method. In sub-Saharan Africa various ethnic, religious, sectarian, regional, historical and social conflicts may be manipulated for other conflicts of interest. The latest developments in Mali have demonstrated this point. Should the UN Security Council be too l ate the next time, there might be other cases resembling that in Rwanda. If the USA wants to maintain its position as the leading country in the world, it may need to display its position in Africa. But the State Department budget of USD 60 million for the resolution of conflicts will not be enough for Africa alone. The files on Iran and Palestine preserve their position on Obamas desk. It is possible that there will not be many changes t o the status quo in either of these issues. As long as Israels measured attempts at raising tensions continues, Washington will play its parallel part. The USA will continue to maintain the identity between Israels security and its own national security and to remain attached with resolve to the protection of Israel. More is Possible The intensification rapid pace of globalisation has caused crises, threats, opportunities and interests to converge on each other at the same pace. Foreign policy is still the first line of defence before national borders. Once that first line is crossed, the second line consists of the capabilities of armed forces. But now foreign policy covers relations with the entire world. Foreign policy is no longer carried out in ministry offices, embassy rooms and hotel lobbies. A part of foreign policy is run consciously or unconsciously by NGOs, universities, think-tanks, lobbies, foundations, credit ratings agencies, associations, organisations, the press, firms, artists, athletes, producers, intermediaries, consumers and many others.

States run their foreign policy towards the aim of not meeting any surprises. But the good old easy times are a thing of the past. The genie is out of the bottle and it will not be put back in. Globalisation will continue with renewed force. Every country will have to face very difficult processes to run and manage. The USA has the greatest advantage in coordination and successful predictions, in other words avoidance of surprises. Tenders instead of battles Thus the length and severity of potential pain is lowered. US foreign policy is run with an eye to tangible improvements in the lives of 214 million US citizens. The USA intends all of its civilian, military, political, economic and humanitarian aid abroad to contribute to its own security: if the opposite is the case it does not carry out such aid. As a result of this attitude, US foreign policy is based on certain concepts and principles. The USA develops and implements policy in accordance with the concepts and principles it supports. The USAs diplomatic offices and diplomatic mission officials may be active in unusual issues in the coming term. US foreign policy may become more intervening and effective over issues such as human rights, womens rights, equal opportunities, increased schooling for girls, the rule of the law, mother and child healthcare, nursery and primary education, basic healthcare services, agriculture, scholarships, prevention of epidemics and AIDS. The functioning of the free market economy, competition, lifting of trade limits and liberalisation may also take their place in this context. The US firms Orbital Sciences Corporation based in Dulles and Space Exploration Technologies based in Virginia have won a new satellite tender in Thailand, coming ahead of their Russian and French rivals. The tender worth USD 160 million is directly relevant to foreign policy success from the US perspective. It is clear that in times of crisis every successful tender and received order s more valuable than under normal circumstances. This way more output, employment and consumption may be ensured. For the system to work with stability, one has to do more business. US diplomatic missions are working towards such ends with the influence of periodic circumstances. From Canada to Indonesia, in all parts of the world diplomats are working to make money for their country and to contribute to the welfare of their citizens beyond their traditional roles. They are trying to convince firms to invest in the USA and states to buy American goods. For US foreign policy new goods and new markets are equally important. The global volume of the clean energy market is estimated to be USD 6 trillion. If this field, in which the USA enjoys an advantage, develops further, there might be happier and fuller thanksgiving dinners for 314 million Americans. Realising Dreams, Making partners out of Enemies US foreign policy prioritises the spread of the USAs fundamental values, concepts and principles around the world. The USA d esires an increase in the number of countries which are democratic, liberal, transparent, have rule of the law, a free market and no obstacles in the way of foreign capital and investment. of course some countries are exempt from these requirements, but it can be seen that the USA is more active in this field. Concepts such as strategic and economic cooperation and development aid are based in this framework within US foreign policy. Japan and Germany which were in the opposite camp in the Second World War and were enemies of the USA are now its fourth and fifth trade partners respectively. Russia and China which have had many differences of opinion with the USA are among its important trading partners. Remaining BRICS countries India, brazil and South Africa also enjoy similar relations with the USA. The USA is today making a lot of effort to normalise its relations with Vietnam. American foreign aid institution USAID is constantly sending aid to Vietnam. US exports to Vietnam have increased by 700 percent in the past decade. As part of the aid programme thousands of Vietnamese students and academics have been trained and have worked in the USA and the system continues to function successfully. In sum the USA tries to make those countries with different worldviews and political systems beneficial for itself based on the development of mutual interests in the climate of globalisation. That this tactic may be tried with Iran and Palestine during Obamas second term is a high possibil ity. This method is far less costly and promises greater rewards than large scale and bloody military operations. One World, One Market The single greatest success of Obama during his second term might be customs union and a single market including the USA and the European Union. This might seem strange at first sight, but the global crisis is greater than any one country to overcome it alone. Only global solutions can answer global problems. Only global cooperation can meet global challenges. The attempts at transatlantic partnership between the USA and the European Union must be seen from this perspective. If customs were to be lifted between the USA and the European Union, there is expected a spectacular 17 percent increase in export revenue. The GDP of both parties will rise considerably. Studies put the annual volume of trade between the USA and the European Union at EUR 400 billion. If customs were to be abolished, the total GDP of the USA and the European Union would increase by USD 180 billion in five years. The USA and the European Union had established a cooperation mechanism called the Transatlantic Economic Council in 2007. Thus the grounds for economic cooperation between the sides was established on the eve of the crisis. On both sides of the Atlantic there are the same problems of economic stagnation and unemployment and also both sides have seen the benefits of common ground in the face of Chinas spectacular rise. For example, in order to retaliate against Chinas protectionist policies, the USA and the European Union may implement the p rinciple of reciprocity in public tenders. Thus if a firm from a certain country will only be allowed to enter a public tender in a given country if only that countrys firms have been allowed the same freedom in the firms base country. A similar situation may apply to raw materials . The European Union currently has free trade agreements with ASEAN, India, Canada, Gulf Cooperation Council countries, various South American and African countries. The USA also has free trade agreements with many countries. Thus as the USA and the European Union make their own economies come closer through the Transatlantic Economic Council, they can bring in their partners and allies on the new system through free trade agreements. If a calendar is followed with sincerity, the Transatlantic Economic Council process, which may be called the transatlantic integration process, may start negotiations in 2013 ad celebrate its completion in 2015?

OBAMANIN YEN DNEMNDE YEN NE OLACAK?

13 03 2013

ABDnin d politikasnda parametre deiiklii olur mu? ABD Bakan Obamann yeni dneminin balangcndayz. Yeni dnemin yeni dileri bakan John Kerry oldu. Her zaman olmasa da, bazen kadro deiiklii, politikann veya slubun deieceine de iaret eder. nmzdeki drt yllk dnemin politikasnn anahtar bu deiiklik -belki de deiim- olabilir Obama Byk Sorunlar Devrald Obamann birinci dnemi ok nemli deiimleri ierdi. Obamann hem gen hem de siyah bir bakan olarak, gler yz ile d nya kamuoyuna sknet ve rahatlama vaaz etmesi etkili oldu. Obama Beyaz Sarayda eyalarn yerletirirken, ordusu Afganistan dalarnda skmt. Ayrca Irak llerinden k yolunu bulamyordu. Dnya genelinde selefi olan bakan George W. Bushun kiilii ve tutumu nedeniyle anti -Amerikanizm gleniyordu. zellikle Arap dnyasnda ABD kartl giderek daha fazla zemin buluyordu. Bunun doal sonucu olarak ABDyi hedef alan asimetrik tehdit -kresel terrizm- ok byk bir gce erimiti. Elbette bunlarn yan sra yeni bakann savamas gereken bir dier sorun da kresel mali krizdi. O kresel mali kriz Amerikan ryas konusunda, nce ryann sonra da Amerikann sonunu getirecek dere cede etkili idi. Obamann Performans Obama birinci hizmet dneminde bu sorunlarn hemen hepsinde ok ciddi ilerlemeler salad. Kresel terrizme kar -zellikle insansz hava aralar sayesinde- ok nemli baarlar kazand. Keza El Kaide lideri Usame bin Ladinin onun dneminde ldrlmesi de Obamann ilk dneminin ciddi baarlar arasnda yer ald. Obama ynetimi Orta Dou ve Kuzey Afrikada rejim deiikliklerini de destekledi. Ama Washington DC bu defa sadece akll yaptrmlar, akll silahlar ve akll mhimmat ile deil, ayn zamanda akll politikalar i le hareket etti. Obama asla kavgac bir bakan olmad. Obama mttefikleri zerinde bask kurmad. Dnya lkelerini de taraf olmaya zorlamad. Obama Orta Dou ve Kuzey Afrikada ngrd rejim deiiklikleri iin yerel muhalif gruplar, demokratik oluumlarn, sosyal hareketleri, blgesel aktrleri ve uluslararas hukuku kulland. Obama ABDnin siyasi etkisini ve askeri basksn n planda tutmamaya zen gsterdi. ABD asndan Irak ve A fganistan dosyalar da artk baarl saylabilecek dzeye geldi. Ekonomik krizle mcadele konusunda da ilerleme saland. Her durumda ABDnin krizle mcadele hususunda -her ne olursa olsun- Avrupa Birliinden daha iyi durumda olduu kesin. Belki 2013 ylnn kalan aylarnda -yeni bte ile beraber- baz ok sert kesintiler, tasarruflar ve reformlar gndeme gelecek. Ama yine de ABDde iler Avrupaya gre daha iyi gidiyor ve byle de devam edecek. Obamann Masas Bu verilere gre ABD Bakannn alma masasnn nceki yllara gre daha dzenli olduu ve masa zerinde daha az dosya yer ald sanlabilir. Ama bu doru deil. nk ABD asndan zellikle nmzdeki 4-5 yl boyunca muhakkak gndemde kalaca kesin olan ekonomik kriz henz alamad ve alamayacak. Dow Jones endeksinin ykselmesi de bunu deitirmez. sizlik, tketim, gven gibi konu lardaki anketler, kamuoyu aratrmalar ve istatistikler de herhangi bir ekilde sorun zmez. ABD dnyann en borlu lkesi ve giderek daha az retiyor. si zlik rakamlar tehlikeli boyutta ABDde refah dzeyi dyor ve emek ucuzluyor. Btn dnya iin geerli olan, ABD iin de elbett e geerli; Daha en kts grlmedi. Henz en kt gnler balamad Ejderhann Nefesi Bundan baka Oval Ofiste zlmesi iin birbirinin zerine dizilen baka dosyalar da var. rnein in konusu ok nemli... ABD ve in arasnda son derecede karmak bir iliki yaps geliti. Her ne kadar Pekin ve Washington birbirine rakip olsa da, birinin batmas dierini de batrabilir. Eer birisi glenirse, bu durum dierini de glendirir. Karlkl bamllk ve kresellemenin bir dier yan etkisi olan bi rlikte almak ve birlikte yaamak ilkesi, kresel sistemde ok nemli bir denge unsuru meydana getirdi. Ama yine de ABDnin kendisini -btn dier aidiyetlerinin yan sra ve daha da fazla- Pasifik lkesi olarak tanmlamas, Washington-Pekin hattnda ikili ve ok tarafl ilikilerin sklkla zorlanma yaayabileceine iaret ediyor. 1,3 milyar nfusuyla in Washington DC iin hem risk hem frsat hem de kriz. in dnyann ikinci byk ekonomisi ve ayn zamanda da ABDnin en byk ikinci ticaret orta... inin elinde nemli miktarda ABD devlet tahvili var. Ayrca in hem ABD firmalar iin nemli bir yatrm alan hem de d ticaret dolaysyla ekonomik kalknmann anahtar. in hammadde ihracatn snrlayarak ABDnin retim iin ihtiya duyduu hammaddeye eriimini zorlatrd. Bundan baka Pekin kamu almlar piyasasn srarla kapal tutuyor. Yan sra telif haklarnn korunmasna ynelik beklentileri karlamyor. Pekinin yabanc meneili rnlerin in piyasasna giriini snrlamak iin tarife d engelleri artrd da biliniyor. in bu ve benzeri yntemlerle haksz rekabet salyor ve ABDli irketlere zarar veriyor. Bu sayede inli firmalar ABDli firmalara sadece i p azarda ve hatta ABD pazarnda deil, ayn zamanda nc lkelerin pazarlarnda da stnlk salyor. inin pek ok nc lkede hammadde kaynaklarnn temini ve kamu ihaleleri konusunda da avantaj salamas ABD iin ok ciddi bir sorun. Ayrca Gney Dou Asya patlamak zere Blge lkelerinde istikrar srekliliini muhafaza edemeyebilir. Blgesel gerilim kresel siyasi ve iktisadi konjonktre gre belirleyici olabilir. Japonya ve in arasndaki sorunlar, Hindistandaki sosyal sorunlar, Kuzey Korenin risk stlenmesi, Tayland ve Burma gibi lkelerde yaanan sreler hep ayn tehlikeye iaret ediyor. Bu denklemde elbette Rusya Federasyonu da yer alyor. ABD daha nce nemli bir adm att. ABD 12 Kasm 2011 tarihinde, Avustralya, Brunei Darussalam, ili, Malezya, Yeni Zelanda, Peru , Singapur ve Vietnam ile beraber Trans Pasifik Ortakl Anlamasn imzalad. ABD 2010 ylnda Asya -Pasifik blgesinde yer alan btn lkelere %25,5 artla 775 milyar USD tutarnda ihracat yapt. Sz konusu rakam ABDnin ayn yl yapt toplam ihracatn %61ine tekabl ediyor. Votka Daha Sert Olur mu?

Moskova ABDnin hemen her att admdan rahatsz... Kremlinin ve Beyaz Sarayn birbirine gvenle bakmad da muhakkak Moskov a Washington DCnin Rusyada iktidar, rejim ve sistem deiiklii istediini ve buna ynelik talepleri desteklediini dnyor . Rusya ayrca ABDnin fze kalkan ve benzeri projelerle zerinde bask kurmasndan da mutsuz Bilhassa Kutup Dairesindeki ulam yollarnn ve enerji kaynaklarnn paylam meselesi daha ok uzun sre ihtilaf sebebi olarak kalabilir. Ayrca nc lkelere bak asndan, enerji politikalarna kadar hemen her sahada ok ciddi gr ayrlklar sz konusu. Arap Baharndan Arap Cehennemine Buna somut bir rnek olarak Suriye de gsterilebilir. Arap Bahar belki demokratik hak talebi iin bir kod olabilir, ama ok kan akyor. Libyadan Msra ve Suriyeye kadar ok byk blgesel ve hatta kresel riskler sz konusu. Birlemi Milletler Gvenlik Konseyi bloke oldu ve bu blokaj bundan sonra da alamayabilir. Daha da kts Birlemi Milletler Gvenlik Konseyi b undan sonra hemen her konu da bu veya benzeri bir blokaj ile felli kalabilir. Bu olaslk iin sadece korkun demek mmkn. Bunun ne derecede korkun olduunu ve bu ifadenin hi de abartl olmadn yine bir rnekle izah etmek mmkn; Msrda giderek karmak hale gelen ve zm mmkn grnmeyen sorununun daha da bydn varsayalm. ayet silahl ve radikal bir grup ksmen veya tamamen blgesel bir otorite meydana getirir ve Sveyi denetimine alrsa, neler yaanabilir? Eer Birlemi Milletler Gvenlik Konseyi bu konuda bir karar alamazsa, Birlemi Milletler hibir yaptrm salayamazsa, her ey olabilir! Obamann yeni dneminde muhakkak Birlemi Milletlerin daha etkin ve daha gl olmasn salamas lazm. Kuzey Afrika ve Orta Douda 30 yan altndaki nfus toplam nfusun %60na denk geliyor. Bu lkelerin toplam nfusunun %50si 21 yan altnda. Hatta sz konusu lkelerin nfuslarnn toplamnn %40 18 yandan gen. Dolaysyla bu lkelerde etkili salk altyaps, gl eitim sistemi, istikrarl i hayat ve yasalarn gvencesi olmazsa, bu lkeler en nazik ifadeyle on yllar boyunca sadece isiz, g men ve terrist retebilir. O nedenle, daha nce kresel lekte yaanan sorunlardan doru dersleri karan bir lke, kendi gvenlii ve istikrar iin, kendi firmalarnn ve yurttalarnn gelecei ve refah iin, sorunu doduu kaynakta zmeye ynelir. ABD de bunu yapyor. Afrika Bahar Ayrca bu konudan btnnden bamsz olmayan biimde, Afrika da Obama ynetimi iin ok skntl bir mesele. Afrikada ABD, Rusya, in ve Avrupa Birlii arasnda enerjiden gdaya ve inaata kadar hemen her sahada ok sert bir rekabet yaanyor. Dnyada en hzl b yyen on ekonomiden yedisi Afrikada yer alyor. in bu lkelerin hepsinde ABDden daha fazla yatrma sahip! En byk be doal gaz ve petrol yatandan drd Mozambikte kefedildi. Afrika her adan her olasla ak bir blge; zellikle Sahil blgesi radikal gruplarn ve iddeti siyaset biimi olarak te rcih eden fanatik topluluklarn sna haline geldi. Sahra alt blgesinde etnik, dini, mezhepsel, blgesel, tarihsel, sosyal ve sair ihtilaflarn baka kar atmalarna bahane edilmesi iin mkemmel bir iklime sahip. Afrikada rnein Malide yaanan son gelimeler bunu ispat etti. Keza Birlemi Milletler Gvenlik Konseyi bir dahaki sefere ge kalrsa, zayf kalrsa, yeni Ruandalar sz konusu olabilir. ABD yerkrede nder lke konumunu muhafaza etmek istiyorsa, bunu Afrikada gstermek zorunda kalabilir. Eer kt senaryolar gerekleirse, ABD Dileri Bakanlnn anlamazlklarn istikrara dntrlmesi iin ayrd 60 milyon USD tutarndaki yllk bte sadece Afrikaya dahi yetmez. Obamann alma masasnda elbette ran ve Filistin dosyalar da yerini koruyor. Muhtemelen her iki konuda da mevcut durum deimeden srecek. Zaman zaman srailin gerilimi kontroll biimde artrmaya ynelik abalar devam ettii mddete, Washington DCnin de paralel konumu devam edecek. ABD nmzdeki yllarda da, getiimiz yllarda olduu gibi kendi milli gvenliini srailin milli gvenlii ile edeer tutup, srailin milli karlarnn korunmasna sarslmaz balarla bal kalmaya devam edecek. Ama Bundan Fazlas da Olabilir Kresellemenin younlamas ve hzlanmas, krizlerin, tehditlerin, frsatlarn ve karlarn da ayn derecede artmasna neden oldu. D politika halen milli snrlarn nndeki birinci gvenlik hatt olma zelliine sahip. Halen birinci hat aldnda, geride sadece ikinci hatt tekil eden silahl kuvvetlerin imkn, kabiliyet, mukabele gc kalyor. Ama artk d politika btn dnya ile ilikileri kapsyor. D politika artk sadece bakanlk brolarnda, elilik odalarnda ve hotel lobilerinde yaplmyor. Sivil toplum kurulular, niversiteler, dnce kurulular, lobiler, vakflar, kredi derecelendirme kurulular, dernekler, rgtler, basn, irketler, sanatlar, sporcular, reticiler, araclar, tketiciler v e daha pek ok benzer kesim d politikann bir ksmn bilerek veya bilmeyerek, iste yerek veya istemeyerek yrtyor. Devletler d politikay srpriz ile karlamama hedefine ynelik uyguluyorlar. Ama eski, gzel ve kolay zamanlar geride kald. Cin ieden kt ve hi kimse cini yeniden ieye sokamaz. Yani kreselleme daha da idde tlenerek devam edecek. Her lkenin nnde srdrlmesi ve ynetilmesi zor sreler olacak. ABDde sistemin ileyiindeki en byk avantajlar koordinasyon, ayrca durum tespitlerinde ve ngrlerde baar salanmas. Dier bir deyile srprize frsat verilmemesi Muharebe yerine hale Bu sayede yaanacak olas skntlarn ve aclarn sresi azaltlyor ve derecesi drlyor. ABD d politikas esas olarak rnein Kenya ile ilikilerinde att admlarn ABD snrlar ierisinde yaayan 314 milyon ABDlinin gnlk hayatna olumlu katk salamas lt ile yrtyor. ABD yurtdnda icra ettii sivil, askeri, siyasi, iktisadi ve insani yardmlar ve ayrca yatrmlar, btn bunlarn lkenin gvenliine katk verecei dncesiyle ve bu hedefe ynelik bak asyla yrtyor. Dier bir deyile, aksi durumda yapmyor. Yine ayn tutumun dorultusunda ABD d politikasn zellikle ve ncelikle kavramlara ve ilkelere dayal biimde yrtyor. ABD destekledii kavramlara, gzettii ilkelere gre hareket tarz gelitirip uyguluyor. ABDnin diplomatik temsilcilikleri, diplomatik misyon grevlileri nmzdeki dnemde almam ve farkl konularda daha aktif grlebilir. rnein insan haklar, kadn haklar, frsat eitlii, kz ocuklarnn okullama orannn artmas, hukukun stnl, ana-ocuk sal, anaokulu ve ilkokul eitimi, temel salk hizmetleri, ziraat, eitim burslar, fakirlik ve alkla mcadele, temiz suya eriim, salgn hastalklarla mcadele ve ADS ile sava sahalarnda ABD d politikas daha etkin ve mdahil olabilir. Ayrca serbest pazar ekonomisinin ileyii, rekabete ak ekonomi, ticari snrlamalarn kaldrlmasn ve serbestleme de bu kapsamda grlebilir. rnein Dulles merkezli ABDli Orbital Sciences Corporation irketi Virginia merkezli Space Exploration Technologies irketi ile beraber Bangkokta srdrd uzun abalarn sonucunda Rus ve Fransz firmalarn geerek Taylanddaki yeni uydu ihalesini ald. 160 milyon USD tutarndaki ihale ABDnin bak asna gre d politikada baar ile dorudan ilikili. zellikle kriz zamanlarnda her bir ihalenin ve her bir sipariin ncesine gre daha da deerli olduu muhakkak. nk bu sayede daha fazla retim, daha fazla istihdam ve daha fazla tketim salanabilir. Dolaysyla sistemin arklarn gvenle ilemesi iin, daha ok i yapmak gerekir. Nitekim ABDnin diplomatik temsilcilikleri de -dnemsel artlarn etkisi dolaysyla- bu ltlere ve hedeflere uygun almalar yrtyorlar. Kanadadan Endonezyaya kadar, dnyann her yerinde diplomatlar geleneksel tanmlamann tesinde lkesine para kazandrmak ve lkesindeki vatandalarnn refahn artracak ekonomik gelimelere katk salamak iin alyorlar. Firmalar ABDde yatrm yapmaya, devletleri ABDnin satt rnleri almaya tevik ediyorlar.

ABD d politikas asndan ayn erevede yeni rnler ve yeni pazarlar da nemli. rnein temiz enerji pazarnn gerek kresel hacmi 6 trilyon USD civarnda tahmin ediliyor. ABDnin avantajl olduu sahann yaygnlamas halinde, bu durum 314 milyon ABDlinin kran yemeinin daha keyifli ve mutlu gemesini salar D Gerek, Dman Ortak Yapmak ABD d politikasnda ABDnin temel deerlerinin, kavramlarnn ve ilkelerinin yerkre sathnda yaygnlatrlmas ncelie s ahip. ABD dnya devletler sistematiinde demokratik, liberal, effaf, serbest pazara sahip, kendisini yabanc sermayeye ve yatrma kar snrlamayan ve hukuk dzenine sahip lkelerin saysnn artmasn arzuluyor. Elbette ABD iin bunun istisnas olan lkeler de var, ama her durumda ABDnin bu konudaki aktif abasnn artt grlyor. O nedenle ABD d politikasnda stratejik ve ekonomik ibirlii ve kalknma yardm gibi kavramlar dorudan bu erevede yer alyor. kinci Dnya Savanda ABD ile ayr kamplarda yer alan ve ABD ile savaan Japonya ve Almanya bugn ABDnin drdnc ve beinci byk ticaret ortaklar. ABD ile bugn pek ok konuda gr ayrl yaayan Rusya ve in de ABDnin nemli ticaret ortaklar arasnda yer alyor. BRICSin geriye kalan yeleri Hindistan, Brezilya ve Gney Afrika ile de ilikiler ayn ekilde devam ediyor Keza ABD bugn Vietnam ile de ilikilerini normalletirmek iin youn aba harcyor. ABDnin d yardm kuruluu USAID Vietnama srekli yardm yapyor. Bu sayede ABDnin Vietnama ihracat son on yllk zaman diliminde %700 artt. Ayn yardm program kapsamnda binlerce Vietnaml renci ve akademisyen ABDde eitim grd, alt ve bu sistem baaryla ilemeye devam ediyor. Hlasas ABD rakiplerini de , kendisinden farkl dnya gr ve politika anlay olan lkeleri de karlkl menfaatlerin gelitirilmesi zemininde ve kreselleme ikliminde kendisi iin faydal hale getirmeyi deniyor. ABDnin bu taktiinin Obamann ikinci dneminde zellikle ran ve Filistin konularnda da denemesi olasl yksek. Nihayetinde bu yntem byk ve kanl askeri operasyonlara nazaran ok daha dk maliyetli ve ok daha byk gelir vaat ediyor Bir Dnya, Tek Pazar Obamann ikinci dneminin belki de en byk baars ABD ile Avrupa Birlii arasnda gmrk birlii ve tek pazar olabilir. Belki ilk bakta ok tuhaf grnse de, kresel kriz hibir lkenin tek bana aamayaca kadar byk. Kresel sorunlara sadece kresel dayanma ile zm bulunabilir. Kresel meydan okumalara ancak kresel ibirlii ile cevap verilebilir. Hlihazrda ABD ve Avrupa Birlii arasnda devam eden transatlantik ortaklk aray bu pencereden baklarak deerlendirilmeli. Eer ABD ile Avrupa Birlii arasnda gmrkler kaldrlrsa, ihracat gelirlerinde %17 seviyesinde mthi bir art salanacak. Dolaysyla her iki tarafn da gayri safi yurt ii hslas ciddi biimde artacak. Aratrmalar ABD ve Avrupa Birlii arasnda yllk ticaret hac mini 400 milyar EUR dzeyinde gsteriyor. Eer gmrkler sfrlanrsa ABDnin ve Avrupa Birliinin gayri safi yurt ii hslalarnn toplam be ylda 180 milyar USD artacak. ABD ve Avrupa Birlii arasnda 2007 ylnda Transatlantik Ekonomi Konseyi ad altnda bir ibirlii mekanizmas kuruldu. Byl ece krizin balamasnn arifesinde taraflar arasnda ekonomik ortaklk iin gereken temel atld. Atlantikin iki yakas da ekonomik durgunluk ve isizli k gibi ortak sorunlara kar ve ayrca inin muazzam ykselii karsnda yeni bir zemin kurmann zorunluluk olduunu grmt. rnein ABD ve Avrupa Birlii inin korumac politikalarna kar misilleme yapmak iin kamu ihalelerinde karlkllk ilkesini uygulamaya koyacak. Bylece bir lke firmas, bir devletinin kamu ihalesine girmek istediinde, kendi lkesinde de o kamu ih alesini dzenleyen lkenin firmalarna ayn serbestliin tannm olmas gerekecek. Benzer bir durum hammadde iin de geerli olabilir. Ayrca Avrupa Birliinin ASEAN, Hindistan, Kanada, Krfez birlii lkeleri, Gney Amerika, Afrika lkeleri ile serbest ticaret anlamas var. ABDnin de birok lke ile serbest ticaret anlamalar var. Bylelikle ABD ve Avrupa Birlii Transatlantik Ekonomi Konseyi vastasyla ekonomilerini hzla birbirine yaklatrrken, serbest ticaret anlamalar vastasyla da mttefiklerini ve ortaklarn yeni sisteme eklemleyebilirler. ayet oluturulan takvime sadakat salanrsa, Transatlantik Ekonomi Konseyi sreci -belki de buna Trans-Atlantik entegrasyonu sreci demek daha uygun olur- 2013 ylnda mzakere evresine girip, 2015 ylnda tamamlanmas ile kutlamalar dzenlenebilir.