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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring Effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

By HINA AFTAB Registration # 1446-111032 Supervisor Dr. Khalid Mughal

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

A project submitted to DEPARTMENT OF ECONIMICS, PRESTON UNIVERSITY, ISLAMABAD, in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of (MSC Economics) PRESTON UNIVERSITY ISLAMABAD

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Jan 2013

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Final Approval This project titled

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring Effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan


By Hina Aftab Registration # 1446-111032 Has been approved

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

For the Preston university, Islamabad

Supervisors signature:__________________

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Certificate I hereby declared that this thesis neither as a whole nor as a part is copied from any source. It is further declared that I have developed this thesis and the accompanied report entirely on the basis of my personal efforts made under the sincere guidance of my supervisors.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

No portion of the work presented in this report has been submitted in support of my degree or qualification of this or any other university or institute of learning, if found I shall be responsible.

Signature: HINA AFTAB

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Registration Number: 1446-111032

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Abstract

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

This piece of research dissects the matter looking into existing literatures. This research was also done by consulting with data from economic survey of Pakistan and State bank of Pakistan. The tool of analysis for the gathered data was statistical using linear regression model to analyze the dependence of rural and urban employment on health investment.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Conclusively, the research shows that investments in health sector create more jobs in rural areas then urban areas. The absence of investment in health sector in urban and rural areas causes reduction of 58% and 178% from urban and rural employment level respectively Hence, the research result point to the fact that investment in health sector increases urban and rural employment. Hence, accepting the null and rejecting the alternative hypothesis. .

Key words: health investment, rural employment, urban employment.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Dedication For those who are very much sincere with me and I owe my life to my parents

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

UNDERTAKING It is certified that my article titled:

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health on employment in Pakistan Is submitted for Preston university Islamabad Campus and it is under confederation. I agree to forward the copyrights of this research paper to Preston University. I further certified that the research paper is free from plagiarism up to the minimum Level to the minimum required by the Higher Education Commission.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Author: Hina Aftab Supervisor: Dr. Khalid Mughal

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

All praise is due to Allah, the Al-Mighty that generated me the strength to complete this research. It has not been easy task but an effort that demand serious and focus attention. I am so much indebted to my supervisor, whose valuable time has contributed hugely to the completion of the whole task. I am equally indebted all my family members and friends that have given the support that it is worth doing. I have no other words than to say thank you to all.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Table of Content 1. Introduction09 I. II. Introduction...09 Problem statement..09

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

III. IV. V.

Research question...10 Objective.10 Significance 11

2. Literature review.12 I. Literature review12

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

3. Methodology.18 I. II. III. IV. Research methodology...18 Research type.18 Variables.18 Type of data...18

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

V. VI. VII. VIII. IX.

Population...18 Sample....18 Hypothesis..19 Model..19 Schematic diagram .20

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

4. Results and Discussion 21 I. II. III. Urban employment and investment in health sector..21 Rural employment and investment in health sector...22 Discussion...23

5. Recommendation.24

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

I. II. III. IV.

Conclusion.24 Recommendation...24 Limitations.24 Future gap..25

Chapter # 1 INTRODUCTION

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Human capital is a blessing of ALLAH if its healthy. The economic development and activities are relied on human capital that a country possesses. The developed countries which are highly capitalized are also contingences on human capital to run economic system efficiently. Efficiency of human capital is relied health; the healthy human capital gives surety of economic growth. Health is the result of education, investment and social habits. These systems are good in developed world thats why they are enjoying benefits of human capital and are growing day by day economically. (Babar 2012)

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

The dilemma of developing countries is that they are not able to provide the basic needs to its nation i.e. clean drinking water, education, food and shelter. The human capital of these countries are not healthy due to which its burden for economy of these countries. In developing countries, the concept of family planning is being adopted by new generation. Politicians and socialists says that population is a burden on our economy. In their view with huge population a country cannot improve its economy. Government of developing countries says that due to large population country is in bad faze of economy. Entrepreneurs/ financial

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

analyst says that if a countrys population growth rate is less than one percent it is positive sign for economic growth and its per capita income will increase with high rate. A group of economist says that country having population growth rate three percent or more than three percent will surely survive easily. (Babar 2012) Problem statement:

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Pakistan is facing worst economic scenario of its life. Most people are hungry for basic needs i.e. electricity, shelter, water, fuel and food. Government says that due to huge population they are unable to provide all facilities to every patriot of country. In fact Govt. is working on a phenomena that keep your people busy in search of basic needs they will not take interest in other matters. Pakistan is the 7th biggest country according to population and is on 36th biggest country according to area. ALLAH blessed Pakistan with lot of resources and also blessed

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

with talented human capital. The only requirement is to use human capital and resources efficiently to gain stable economic growth. Human Capital need better education, social environment and health facilities to grow efficiently. Pakistan is blessed with 40 percent of youth in population but unfortunately due to mental stress some of them choose suicide as a best solution, some boys and girls are impressed by living style of west and adopted only bad things and are ruining their life and countrys resources.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Pakistanis are patient of depression due to excellent reporting of media. Media shows and highlight only bad incidence of Pakistan. In case of bomb blast or any other natural disaster, it telecasts or presents even those dead bodies and human parts that cannot be seen by each and every person. As a result of their fabulous work our youth and specially children are having wrong psychological effects which will harm our society in long term. The Govt. of Pakistan and private investors are investing in health sector but the need is to know that whether their investment is giving good results or the results are opposite to the

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

expectations of investors. Most NGOs are investing only in women health care projects and ignoring other sectors. Govt. of Pakistan invests only 20 percent of budget on health sector and also management is not taking interest in health of poor patriot of Pakistan. They take interest and work for only elite class of Pakistan. Research question:

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Does the investment in different health departments effect the employment in rural and urban areas? Objectives: To know the relationship of investment on health sector, employment in rural and urban areas. To know the investment trend in health sector.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

To know the areas that needs more attention. To know the department which creates more jobs in comparison with other health divisions?

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Significance: It will highlight the positive or negative relationship of investment in different health departments and employment level. Policy makers can use it to make efficient policies that will give maximum output by using minimum input. It will highlight the health departments that are not getting proper attention of investors. It will also show that health investment in rural areas is more beneficiary or in urban areas.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Chapter # 2 Literature Review

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Khalif Bile Mohammad, Assad hafeez & Sania Nishter (2007) in their study gives the detail of investors and donors of health sector of Pakistan. According to them Pakistans per capita expenditure on health in 2004-05 is RS. 375 and contribution by donors and international agencies is only RS.80 (US$1.3). ADB, WB, EU, GAVI, GFATM, USAID, MOH, MOPW and DOH are major source of investment in health sector. They have invested in different long term and short term projects of Maternal and child health, communicable diseases, health system and planning and for budgetary support to MOH (ministry of health). Government of

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Pakistan spent RS.240 billion on health during (1995-2005) out of which RS.66 billion spent on non-developmental bill and RS.174 billion on developmental bills. Provincial government provides RS.185 billion and federal government provides RS.55 billion. According to their research Pakistans population is increasing daya by day whereas income is not increasing proportionally, health sector is unable to fulfill the needs of existent population efficiently, and more investment i.e 50% 50% more investment every year till 2015 in health sector for is needed to fulfill the gap between demand and supply of health services.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Abo ul Hassan, Shahnwaz Malik, Imran Sharif Chaudhry & Sidra Khalil (2011) discuss the relationship between health expenditures and poverty. To measure health status they used life expectancy as proxy. They conclude that increase in health efficiency will result in reduction of poverty. Due to increased health facilities the day to day loss will be minimized, the enrollment of students in educational institutions will be improved and hence it will provide good economic growth as well.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Mohammad Akram & Faheem Jehangir Khan (2007) analyzes the behavior of public spending on health in provinces. According to their analysis the government spending on health is progressive in Punjab and Baluchistan and regressive in Sindh, NWFP and rural Punjab. The study indicates that poor cant afford to avail better health facilities because of high cost of services. . People of rural areas have to rely on primary health facilities only. All good hospitals are in cities only. Also doctors dont want to spend their time in rural areas for duty due to unavailability of luxuries.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Haleema Masud (2011) said that in Pakistan health policy is not only related with benefits of patriots of Pakistan, it is also treated as a political factor. Government designs health policy for those people and areas from where they can get votes for election in their benefits. She emphasized that health policy should be revised and made by analyzing the social and individual benefits of health. Faisal Abbas (2010) said that the life expectancy of women is lowest in Pakistan in comparison of other developing countries and infant mortality rate is highest. Pakistans

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

elasticity of public health expenditure is negative in short run and less than one in long run. Infant mortality rate will be reduced due to increase in income and life expectancy will increase due to increase in income. He said that government should analyze human capital formation and poverty reduction while making health policy. The supply of healthy food should be available in every part of Pakistan to get better human capital with increased productivity.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Babar Tasneem Shaikh, Arslan Mazhar, Shahzad Ali Khan & Assad Hafeez (2012) study tells that healthcare facilities are very expensive in Pakistan due to which almost 150 million people suffer from economic disaster and 100 million become poor due to health expenditures. This problem predominately conquers in the resource constrained settings and Pakistan is one example where health financing options and social security contrivances for the households is either non-existent or very limited. With a maternal mortality ratio of 278/100,000 live births, contraceptive incidence rate of 29.6% and only 39% deliveries attended by the skilled birth

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

attendants, Pakistan ranks 65thin Gender Inequality Index with an overall Human Development Index ranking of 125thover the last 3 years. Around 0.6% of GDP and least progressive expenses on health have been incurred over the last two decades in Pakistan. Dr. Talib Lashari (2005) tells that the country's overall social sector financing needs to be mounted up further to make it alert to the real needs. Two major sources of the sponsoring i.e. public and private sector are working in vertical directions with no connections in the areas of financing and service delivery. According to assessments public sector provides 23 percent of

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

the total health expenditures while rest (77) comes from out-of-pocket expenses in the private sector. Only one million of the population is protected through social insurance provided by Employees Social Security association, while another 0.93 million people have heath protection through PIA, Pakistan Railways, WAPDA, PTCL and Fauji Foundation. Besides, public sector organizations, civil society is also contributing towards health of the population through its limited resources. Organizations like Edhi Foundation, Aga Khan Foundation, social marketing enterprises and others are providing healthcare to people in different parts of

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

the country. According to assessments Aga Khan Foundation, Save the Children (US) and Saving Newborn Lives Initiative are running projects worth US$304.19 million. Al Shifa Trust paid out RS. 1615 million during 1986-2004.The scenario that emerges from the above discussion makes it clear that the current rate of health financing is insufficient for the existing needs of the population. Muhammad Iqbal Afridi (2008) indicates that situation in Pakistan about improvement in mental health services is not at the pace to reach a reasonable level. This important field of

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

health is not popular, as it should be if we relate it to some other medical and surgical disciplines such as cardiology and ophthalmology etc. Bulk of the people have some knowledge about hypertension, cholesterol, ECG and too often reveal and verbalize at length about their cardiac illness, which were formerly used to be a stigma or personal weakness. Likewise using glasses were reflected to be a sign of old age until quite recently and their use was avoided particularly by women in our country. At the other end, seeking help regarding mental disorder is avoided. Even referring for sexual problem is considered debauched and is

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

an unthinkable. One cause behind this could be that the image concerning mental patients, hospitals and related occupation and specialists e.g. psychologists, psychiatrists etc., is portrayed in an awkward manner by the beginners in a few sections of Pakistan's mass media. It hardly helps the purpose of promoting mental health and, at times, leads to dishonesty and caricature creating hatred about the subject. The incursion of TV channels accessible to persons of all age and brackets with sometime unethical and non-authentic opinions needs urgent attention.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Abo ul Hassan, Shahnawaz Malik, Imran Sharif Chaudhry & Sadia Khalil (2011) investigates the effects of health status proxy by life expectancy and the expenditures on health along with the leading socio-economic factors on the poverty levels proxy by head count ratio in Pakistan. Even though it is a well-documented fact that the health indicators in Pakistan have been improved remarkably since its independence, yet its standing is still far behind among the nations of the world. Again one can easily examine the ambiguity between the soaring rate of funding in health sector and its outcomes. The dilemma a simple question whether the

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

expenditures on health alone for the facility of health services to the masses is adequate enough to lessen poverty in Pakistan, or rather, if there are other socio-economic factors which are decisive to alleviate poverty in Pakistan so far. The paper had applied the methods of least squares to examine the relationship between poverty and health status in Pakistan. The study builds strong relationship between health and poverty in Pakistan. The paper declares that health is a significant determinant of economic performance and there exists a strong relationship between poverty and measures of health. It has also argued that the key

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

improvements in health would cause immense economic gains. Thus, the idea is verified that improved health status increases the human skill and earning capacity which eventually reduces the poverty levels. Faisal Sultan Qadri, Abdul Waheed (2011) in their study estimated the relationship between human capital and economic growth by using time series data of Pakistan for the period 1978 to 2007. A health adjusted education pointer for human capital is used in the customary CobbDouglas production function authorizes the long run positive affiliation between human

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

capital and the economic growth in Pakistan. A compassion study was also performed in order to check the strength of the early findings. The assessment results supported the findings of the former studies that human capital is positively related to growth and also that the results are vigorous. The health accustomed education indicator was found to be a vastly significant factor of economic growth, which shows that both the health and education sectors should be given special attention in order to certify long run economic growth.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Pakistan: Country Gender Profile Study (2008), SDPI, indicates that the problems of health cannot be looked in separation and broader parameters need to be developed to confirm equality for women. The health facilities for the grassroots are over-burdened and the quality of health services undergoes greatly. The public health care system undergoes as doctors wish to give services to the prosperous. The reliance of the Ministry of Health on donors in applying international health policies and programs creates doubts regarding the amount and stream of financial resources and distracts execution. High costs, fixity of women, limited

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

decision making and limited information are major obstacles in seeking appropriate health care. Increased investment in the health sector with a clear aim to decrease the gender inequality is a central element of the governments agenda. Dr Sania Nishtar (2007) said that public-private partnership should be increase in haelh sector in order to enhance efficiency of health sector. She gave number of arrangements that can be changed as a result of interfacing the roles, tasks and privileges of the public and private sectors in traditional health systems. For instance, at a service delivery level, prime healthcare

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

services can be contracted out to the private sector, completely or in part; alternatively, the public sector can also contract in private sector proficiency and risk-taking talent to achieve health facilities. At a health financing level, the private sector can deliver substitutes to tax revenues; for example, the private insurance industry can be a cause of finance for healthcare in countries where the legally employed sector is leading; communities can donate to social insurance pools, and individual charity can be channeled into social protection funds. At a governance level the private sector can be symbolized on self-governing governance boards of

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

hospitals; whereas at a basic healthcare level, communities can be convoluted in institutional decision making. Samina T. Panwhar (2009) presented an analysis of policies related with child mortality in Pakistan centering on problem structuring, using a contrast with Bangladesh. Pakistans progress in child mortality rate has been much slower than that of Bangladesh in spite of the fact that Pakistan has excelled in economic growth, and the two countries have equivalent populations and share political history. A comparative study of policy documents studied for

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

the two countries explains the fact that Bangladesh, in framing its child health policy, has highlighted the input factors such as nutrition and environmental aspects, in addition health services. Pakistan, on the other hand, retains a general problem origination strategy focusing mainly on health service and disregarding the social, environmental, and other factors producing morbidity and mortality in children. Abdul Wali khan & Zahoor Khan (2006) said in their study that there is an increasing tendency for the demand of such types of facilities i.e. hospitals, dispensaries, maternity and

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

child health centers, rural health center, TB center and BHUs & sub health center, therefore the Government should take into consideration the increasing demand for these facilities. The government should focus on this issue and should increase the shares of budget allocated for this end. Asghar Reza & Suman Valeecha (2012) examined the influence of Structural Adjustment Loans attained from world bodies on health conditions and concurrently on economic progress of Pakistan, constructed on an econometric model. To test the association between such

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

programs, health indicators and economic growth, they used time series data for the period of 1980-81 to 2009-2010 and examined by conducting statistical tests. The empirical results confirm the hypothesis that there is no relationship between the two factors i.e. structural adjustment loans do no contribute towards the enlargement of health conditions in Pakistan.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Chapter # 3 Methodology

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY: This study has been an attempt to find out the effect of investment in health on employment on rural and urban areas in Pakistan. RESEACH TYPE: This is a quantitative research.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

POPULTION: Data about the investment in health sector and rural and urban employment from year 1947 to 2012 is the population. SAMPLE: To analyze the relationship of investment in health sector and rural and urban employment 16.6% of population is taken as sample. Sample consists of most recent past years that is 2001 to 2011 and consist of 11 values. VARIABLES:

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Independent variable: hospital, dispensaries, maternal and child health centers, rural health center, TB center and BHUs & sub health centers. Dependent variable: rural employment, urban employment Type of data:

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Secondary data about number of hospitals (H), dispensaries (DS), BHUs and sub health centers (BH), maternity and child health centers (MC), rural health centers (RH), TB centers (TC), employment in rural and urban areas of Pakistan is gathered by economic survey of Pakistan.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Hypothesis: Null hypothesis

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

H0: Increased investment in building hospital, dispensaries, TB centers and maternal and child health centers will increase employment in urban areas. H1: investment in building rural health centers and BHUS and sub health centers will increase employment in rural areas. Alternative hypothesis:

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

H1: Increased investment in building hospital, dispensaries, TB centers and maternal and child health centers will decrease employment in urban areas. H2: investment in building rural health centers and BHUS and sub health centers will decrease employment in rural areas. Model:

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Simple linear regression model is used to check the relationship between dependent and independent variable and OLS method is used due to its BLUE properties. Y=0+2X+Ui Above model is general form where X represents independent variables i.e. hospital, dispensaries, BHUs and sub health centers, rural health centers, TB centers and maternal and

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

child health centers and Y represents dependent variables i.e. rural employment and urban employment. E-view has been used to find regression lines. Regression line for urban employment: UE=0+1H+2DS+3MC+4TC+Ui Regression line for rural employment:

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

RE= 0+1RH+2BH+Ui

Schematic Diagram:

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Chapter # 4 Results and Discussion Introductory Paragraph:

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

We all know the general rule that investment in any sector creates jobs in the country. All sectors have different impact on employment some sectors creates more jobs than other. Here the impact of health investment is checked on urban and rural employment in Pakistan.

Urban employment and investment in health sector


Dependent Variable: UE Method: Least Squares Date: 12/14/12 Time: 14:25

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Sample: 2001 2011 Included observations: 11

Variable

Coefficient Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C H

-58.70374 8.684251 0.007199 0.021317

-6.759793 0.337697

0.0005 0.7471

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

DS MC TC

0.006714 0.030012 0.026521

0.004282 0.009730 0.027060

1.567957 3.084436 0.980096

0.1679 0.0215 0.3649

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression

0.961062 0.935104 0.366140

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion

14.32909 1.437264 1.131351

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.804349 -1.222429 2.430672

Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

1.312212 37.02300 0.000229

Regression line for urban employment

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

UE= -58.70374+0.007199H+0.006714DS+0.030012MC+0.026521TC It shows that by increasing one percent increase of Hospitals (H), dispensaries (DS), maternal and child health centers (MC) and TB centers (TC) employment rate in urban areas will be increased by 0.007199%, 0.006714%, 0.030012% and 0.026521% respectively. Although these are minor values but in absence of investment in these departments employment rate in urban areas will reduce by 58.70374% which will have negative impact on society. Investment in

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

establishment of maternal health & child health centers and hospitals is more beneficiary then establishment of dispensaries and TB centers. Rural employment and investment in health sector:
Dependent Variable: RE Method: Least Squares Date: 12/14/12 Time: 14:39 Sample: 2001 2011 Included observations: 11

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Variable C RH BH R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid

Coefficient Std. Error -178.6400 122.2111 0.294242 0.096342 0.008694 0.031054 0.835293 0.794116 1.969574 31.03376

t-Statistic -1.461733 3.054160 0.279965

Prob. 0.1820 0.0157 0.7866 32.68273 4.340712 4.420512 4.529029

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

-21.31282 1.297739

F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

20.28553 0.000736

Regression line for rural employment: RE= -178.6400+0.294242RH+0.008694BH It shows that one percent increase in investment in rural health centers and BHUs and sub health centers will increase the employment rate in rural areas by 0.294242% and 0.008694% respectively and in absence of investment in these departments will reduce employment rate by

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

178.64%. Investment in establishing rural health centers is more beneficiary then establishing BHUs and sub health sector.

Discussion:
The data available about rural and urban employment was according to financial years, and some values were missing. So for calculation I assumed that same trend will be for the missing values. I used 11 observations in my project. The study shows that the overall impact of health

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

investment is positive since last 11 years but the investment in establishment of maternal & child health center, hospitals and rural health center is not sufficient. The increase due to health investment is negligible due to reduced investment. The main point is that if we stop investing in health then we will lose large portion of employment i.e. 58% decrease in urban employment and 178% decrease in rural employment.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

The decrease is not negligible because if the investment in health is reduced then people will remain sick and due to sickness absent ratio from jobs will be high. Thus employment will reduce.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Chapter # 5 Recommendations and conclusion Conclusion:


The increase in employment due to health investment is negligible but the decrease in employment due to absence of health investment is not negligible. Rural areas are neglected. Overall health investment have increasing trend but with small percentage change.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Recommendations:
On the basis of estimated values and past history of health departments I suggest that More investment is needed in establishing hospitals, Maternal and child health care centers and rural health centers because these are the areas which are being ignored in past 11 years.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Trend and statistical results also show that establishment of rural health centers increases rural employment with more percentage than BHUs and sub health centers. Similarly investment in maternal and child health center increases urban employment with more percentage than hospitals, dispensaries and TB centers.

Practice in rural areas must be compulsory for all medical students for at least one year.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Incentive and bonus should be given to those doctors and medical staff that serve in rural areas.

LIMITATIONS: Proxy variables are used to measure health investment. Repeated figures in rural and urban employment. Ignorance of variables that effect health investment.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Small sample.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

FUTURE GAP: This study is just meant to discuss whether investment in health is beneficiary or not. It can be explored further by incorporating more variables or by adopting a more sophisticated econometric technique. Identification of rural areas that need attention of ministry of health. Find out the reasons due to which investment is not sufficient in health sector.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

To find system which will increase efficiency of health sector?

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

References
Abdul Wali khan, Zahoor Khan (2006), Estimating and forecasting health indicators in Pakistan, The Dialogue Volume V Number I, docsfiles.com/pdf_health_indicators_pakistan_of.html.

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Abo ul Hassan, Shahnawaz Malik, Imran Sharif Chaudhry & Sadia Khalil (2011), PovertyHealth Nexus: The Case of Pakistan, Middle Eastern Finance and Economics ISSN: 14502889 Issue 11 (2011) EuroJournals Publishing, Inc. 2011 http://www.eurojournals.com/MEFE.htm. Asghar Reza & Suman Valeecha (2012), Impact of Structural Adjustment Loans on Health Indicators on Pakistan Econometric Analysis, INTERDISCIPLINARY JOURNAL OF

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

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6,

journal-

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Dr.Sania

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www.sanianishtar.info/pdfs/ppp_commonwealth.pdf. Dr. Talib Lashari (2011), Occasional Paper Series The Network for Consumer Protection, http://www.thenetwork.org.pk/Resources/Reports/PDF/15-8-2011-3-17-26-931-Health %20Care%20Financing.pdf.

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Appendix:
YEAR Hospital (H) Dispensar ies (DS) BHUs and sub health centers (BH) 5230 Maternity and child health center (MC) 879 Rural health(RH ) 541 TB centers (TC) 272

2001

907

4625

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

906 906 916 919 924 945 948 968 972

4590 4554 4582 4632 4712 4755 4794 4813 4842

5308 5290 5301 5334 5336 5349 5310 5345 5344

862 907 906 907 906 903 908 906 909

550 552 556 556 560 562 561 572 577

285 289 289 289 288 290 293 293 304

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

2011

972

4842

5374

909

584

304

Source: Economic survey of Pakistan 2011-12 Employment by region and gender (million)
employ ed urban 12.22 12.22

Years 2001 2002

employ ed rural 26.66 26.66

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

28.81 28.81 32.49 33.11 34.48 35.54 37.25 37.85 37.85

13.19 13.19 14.46 14.54 14.61 15.25 15.96 15.99 15.99

Source: Labor survey of Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

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