CURRICULUM VITAE - COSTAS MILAS PERSONAL DETAILS: Professor Costas Milas, Institute for Public Policy and Management,

c/o Economics Office, Chancellor's Building, Keele University, Keele, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG, UK. Tel: (+44) (0) 1782583090, (+44) (0) 7887887069. E-mail: c.milas@keele.ac.uk Web page: http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/ec/people/costasm.htm EDUCATION AND QUALIFICATIONS: 1994-1997: University of Warwick (UK): PhD in Economics. Supervisors: Prof. Kenneth F. Wallis, Director of the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau and Dr. Jeremy P. Smith, Senior Lecturer in Economics (Warwick). Examiners: Prof. Sean Holly (Cambridge), Dr. Michael Clements (Warwick). Subjects read: International Finance, Labour Market Economics, Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Time Series, Financial Econometrics. 1993-1994: Warwick Business School (UK): MSc in Economics and Finance, Grade: 64%. Subjects read: Stochastic Methods in Economics and Finance, Microeconomics, International Finance, Corporate Finance, Asset Pricing, Accounting, Econometrics, Mathematics, Game Theory. 1987-1991: Athens University of Economics and Business: BSc in Statistics, Grade: 8.66 out of 10, excellent. Main subjects: Statistical Methods, Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Multivariate Statistics, Investment Management, Financial Management, Accounting, Macroeconomics, Microeconomics. 1984-1987: Thrakomakedones Lyceum (Greece): Lyceum Diploma, Grade: 19.7 out of 20, excellent. WORKING EXPERIENCE: March 2005- : Professor of Financial Economics, Keele University. Duties: Recruitment and Selection Panel Member for the School of Economic and Management Studies. Director and Admissions tutor, MSc Finance and Management, MSc Finance and Information Technology. Member of the Research Committee. Member of the School Learning and Teaching Committee. Mentor of one staff member. Programme development: MSc in Financial Economics. Teaching: Corporate Finance (postgraduate), Financial Markets (postgraduate), Research Methods (postgraduate). April 2003-February 2005 : Senior Lecturer in Finance, Department of Economics, City University. Director and Admissions tutor, MSc International Business Economics, MSc Business Economics. Teaching: Corporate Finance (undergraduate/postgraduate), Econometrics (postgraduate). September 2001March 2003 : Lecturer in Finance, Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University. Lecturer of the postgraduate courses Financial Engineering and Modelling Financial Decisions and Markets in the MSc in Finance and Investment, MSc in Financial Economics and MSc in
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International Money, Finance and Investment programmes. Seminar leader of Macroeconomics (2nd year undergraduate course). Supervisor of one Ph.D. student and eight MSc students (per year) in the area of Macroeconomics and Finance. Teaching a series of PhD lectures on Non-linear modelling techniques. September 1999-August 2001: Lecturer in Economics and Finance, University of Sheffield. Lecturer of the courses Financial Instruments and Markets, Econometric Methods and Topics in Empirical Finance in the MSc in Economics, MA in Economics and Finance, and MA in Money, Banking and Finance programmes. Lecturer of the undergraduate course Statistical Methods for Economics. Supervisor of one PhD student and four MSc students (per year) in Macroeconomics and Finance. October 1998-August 1999: Research Fellow in Economics, University of Warwick. I was in charge of running the graduate Econometric Methods seminars in the MSc in Economics and MSc in Economics and Finance courses. I also run the Economic Statistics and Econometrics classes for graduate students. My job also involved the supervision of two MSc dissertations in Economics and Finance. September 1997-August 1998: Economic Modeller at Cambridge Econometrics, Cambridge, UK. October 1994-September 1997: Teaching Assistant at the Department of Economics, University of Warwick. Tuition of the undergraduate courses: Macroeconomics and Mathematical Economics. November 1991-August 1993: Statistician at the Department of Production Control, Hellenic Air ForceCalibration Service. EXTERNAL ACTIVITIES: 2006-2009: Member of the Programme Committee for the Royal Economic Society (RES) annual conference. External Assessor for Readers/Senior Lecturers in Finance: University of Essex, September 2005, April 2006, and March 2007. External lead supervisor of one PhD student at Aston Business School (expected to submit by June 2008). External Examiner for PhD Committees: (i) University of Warwick, January 2005. Student name: Sethapramote, Y. (supervisors: Michael Clements and Jeremy Smith). Thesis title: Testing for unit roots and cointegration in heterogeneous panels. (ii) University of York, June 2005. Student name: Zamudio, O.H. (supervisor: Peter Smith). Thesis title: Macroeconomic shocks and monetary policy in small open economies: the case of Latin America.

External examiner for taught degrees: BSc Finance and BSc Financial Management, University of Essex (2004-present). Senior Research Fellow, Rimini Centre of Economic Analysis, Faculty of Economics-Rimini, Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy (http://www.rcfea.org/).

EDITORIAL ACTIVITIES AND REFEREEING: Associate Editor, Review of Economic Analysis (http://www.rofea.org/). Special Editor (together with Gary Koop, Strathclyde University and Denise Osborn, Manchester University), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2007. Theme of the journal: Regime-Switching Models in Economics and Finance. Special Editor (together with Dick van Dijk, Erasmus University, and Mike Clements, Warwick University), International Journal of Forecasting, 2008. Theme of the journal: Forecasting Returns and Risk in Financial Markets using Nonlinear and Linear Models. Referee for the journals: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Macroeconomics, Economica, International Journal of Forecasting, Review of Financial Economics, Journal of Futures Markets, International Review of Economics and Finance, European Journal of Finance, Labour Economics, Economic Modelling, Applied Financial Economics, Bulletin of Economic Research. ESRC project evaluator and Leverhulme Trust project evaluator. External referee for the working paper series of the Banco de Espaa and the Bank of England.

MEMBERSHIP OF PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATIONS: Member of the American Finance Association and the Royal Economic Society. BOOK PUBLICATION: Milas, C., P. Rothman and D. van Dijk (eds.) (2006), Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, Elsevier Science, Amsterdam. In the series Contributions to Economic Analysis.

PUBLICATIONS: Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model, Oxford Economic Papers, forthcoming, 2008+. Out-of-sample forecasting of unemployment rates with pooled STVECM forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming, 2008+ (With Rothman, P.). Forecasting interest rate swap spreads using domestic and international risk factors: Evidence from linear and non-linear models, Journal of Forecasting, 26, (2007), pp. 601-619. (With Lekkos I. and Panagiotidis, T.). Non-linear real exchange rate effects in the UK labour market, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 10(1), article 4, (2006). (With Legrenzi, G.). The price-dividend relationship in inflationary and deflationary regimes, Finance Research Letters, 2, (2005), pp. 260-269. (With Madsen, J.). Non-linear inflationary dynamics: Evidence from the UK, Oxford Economic Papers, 57, (2005), pp. 51-69. (With Arghyrou, M. and C. Martin). Modelling monetary policy: inflation targeting in practice, Economica, 71, (2004), pp. 209-221. (With Martin, C.). This paper received media attention following presentation at the Royal Economic Society annual conference held at Warwick, 25-27 March 2002. The lead article of Economics and Finance of The Guardian on 25 March 2002 was devoted to the paper. It reported that in a serious challenge to the Banks handling of the economy, Christopher Martin and Costas Milas from Brunel University claim the Bank has a deflationary bias and takes overshooting the governments 2.5% inflation target more seriously than undershooting it, going on to say that Mr Martin and Mr Milas claim that policymakers have been too cautious (see also: http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,673370,00.html). Commenting on the

policies pursued by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and the European Central Bank, the lead article of Economics and Finance of The Independent on 31 July 2002 reported that this downward [deflationary] bias in the MPC's approach is analysed in a careful statistical study by Christopher Martin and Costas Milas, of the Economics Department, Brunel University. Amongst other coverage, Reuters reported that Christopher Martin and Costas Milas from the department of economics and finance at Brunel University said their research suggested the MPC had a deflationary bias and that Martin and Milas found that policy-makers are not trying to hit the inflation target: they are attempting to keep inflation within the range of 1.4-2.6 percent rather than pursuing a precise target of 2.5 percent.

Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 9, (2004), pp. 277-288. (With Otero, J.G. and T. Panagiotidis). Common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets: Evidence from a non-linear vector autoregression approach, Journal of Futures Markets, 24, (2004), pp. 221-250. (With Lekkos, I.). Time-varying excess returns on UK government bonds: a non linear approach, Journal of Banking and Finance, 28, (2004), pp. 45-62. (With Lekkos, I.). Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach, Economic Modelling, 20, (2003), pp. 165-179. (With Otero, J.G.). A multivariate approach to the growth of governments, Public Finance Review, 30, (2002), pp. 56-76. (With Legrenzi, G.). Beyond the demand: the importance of supply-side and institutional factors in the growth of governments, Applied Economics Letters, 9, (2002), pp. 523-527. (With Legrenzi, G.). The role of omitted variables in identifying a long-run equilibrium relationship for the Italian government growth, International Tax and Public Finance, 9, (2002), pp. 435-449. (With Legrenzi, G.). Smooth transition vector error correction models for the spot prices of coffee, Applied Economics Letters, 9, (2002), pp. 925-928. (With Otero, J.G.). Non linear and asymmetric adjustment in the local revenue-expenditure models: some evidence from the Italian municipalities (2002), (with G. Legrenzi), Proceedings of the 2002 North American Summer Meetings of the Econometric Society: Urban and Public Economics, Volume 1, edited by David K. Levine, William Zame, Lawrence Ausubel, Roger Gordon, Therese McGuire and John Rust. Available from: http://www.dklevine.com/proceedings/urban-and-public.htm On the dynamics of lending and deposit interest rates in emerging markets: a non-linear approach, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 6(3), article 4, (2002). (With Iregui, A.M. and J.G. Otero). Earnings, productivity and competitiveness: the Greek case, Greek Economic Review, 21, (2001), pp. 19-28. Identifying the factors that affect interest rate swap spreads: some evidence from the US and the UK, Journal of Futures Markets, 21, (2001), pp. 737-768. (With Lekkos, I.).
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Modelling the spot prices of various coffee types, Economic Modelling, 18, (2001), pp. 625-641. (With Otero, J.G.). Employment, output and political business cycle effects in the Greek non tradable sector, Applied Economics, 32, (2000), pp. 123-133. Labour market decisions and Greek manufacturing competitiveness, Journal of Policy Modeling, 21, (1999), pp. 505-513. Long-run structural estimation of labour market equations with an application to Greece, Economic Modelling, 16, (1999), pp. 149-161. Demand for Greek imports using multivariate cointegration techniques, Applied Economics, 30, (1998), pp. 1483-1492. An Energy-Environment-Economy Model for Europe (E3ME), Version 2.1, Users Manual, Cambridge Econometrics, (1998). (With Barker, T., and Gardiner, B.).

BOOK REVIEWS: Brdsen, G., . Eitrheim, E.S. Jansen and R. Nymoen (eds.) (2005), The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling (Oxford University Press, published in the series Advanced Texts in Econometrics), International Journal of Forecasting (2006), 22, 198-199.

RESEARCH GRANTS, SCHOLARSHIPS AND AWARDS: January 2006: Successful application to the ESRC Research Seminars Competition (bid for 15,000; reference number RES-451-25-4260). This is a research application to promote research in Nonlinear Economic Topics among UK academics by organising 4 ESRC funded workshops over the period 20072008. This proposal is designed to bring UK-based researchers together to facilitate the development of a research community in the UK that aims to improve the dissemination of ideas, initiatives and best practice, leading to the development of a distinctive UK research agenda in Nonlinear Economics. A special issue of the Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics will be devoted to the 1st ESRC Seminar Series at Keele University (February 2007). A possible special issue of the Journal of Macroeconomics will be devoted to the 2nd ESRC Seminar Series at Brunel University. A special issue of the International Journal of Forecasting will be devoted to the 3rd ESRC Seminar Series at Keele University (February 2008). For more details, please visit:

http://www.keele.ac.uk/research/ppm/research/NLEconomics.htm As part of the Seminar series, I also run the nonlinear mailing list (nonlinear@maillists.keele.ac.uk) which currently has some 200 users worldwide. 11-12 March 2004: Royal Economic Society fund (250) to chair a session and present a paper at the 12th Annual Meeting of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, held in the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. 13-15 March 2003: Royal Economic Society fund (200) to present a paper at the 11th Annual Meeting of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, held in Florence. 20-24 June 2002: Royal Economic Society fund (300) to present a paper at the North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society hosted by the Department of Economics, University of California Los Angeles (UCLA). 27 March to 3 April 1996: ESRC funding to attend the Royal Economic Society Easter School in Econometrics of non-stationary time series at the University of Birmingham. A lecture series was given by Prof. David Hendry (Nuffield College, Oxford) and Prof. Soren Johansen (University of Copenhagen). 1987-1991: Scholarships from the State Scholarship Foundations since I ranked in the upper 1% of my class for each and every year of my undergraduate studies. CONFERENCES/WORKSHOPS: Workshop: Working with Microfit, held between 15-17 April 1998 at Selwyn College, Cambridge. The workshop was organised for business economists by Cambridge Econometrics and led by Prof. Hashem Pesaran (Trinity College, Cambridge). I was in charge of running the hands-on sessions of the course. The focus of the workshop was on financial econometrics techniques. 11th Annual Conference of the European Association of Labour Economists (EALE), University of Regensburg, Germany, 23-26 September 1999. Paper presented: Identification and estimation of a labour market model for the tradeables sector: The Greek case. 6th Conference on Mathematical Modelling for Economics and Management organised by the Centre for Applied Mathematics to Forecasting and Economic Decision (CEMAPRE) between 5-7 June 2000 in Lisbon, Portugal. Paper presented: A non-linear model of the UK real exchange rate. 2nd workshop on Economic Dynamics organised by the Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance (CeNDEF) between 4-6 January 2001 in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Paper presented: Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach.

51st International Atlantic Economic Society Conference held between 14-19 March 2001 in Athens, Greece. Paper presented: A non-linear model of the UK real exchange rate. Macroeconomic Modelling Conference organised by Warwick University between 2-4 July 2001. Paper presented: A non-linear model of the UK real exchange rate. 18th Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society, held in Buenos Aires, Argentina, July 2628, 2001. Paper presented: On the dynamics of lending and deposit interest rates in emerging markets: a non-linear approach.

4th Annual Conference on Economies in Transition, Trade and Factor Mobility, organised by the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in London, 30 November 2001. Paper presented: Modelling monetary policy: inflation targeting in practice.

10th Annual Meeting of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, held in the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 14-15 March 2002. Paper presented: Asymmetric and non-linear adjustment in the relationship between government spending and revenues for Italy.

Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 held in Warwick University, 25-27 March 2002. Paper presented: Modelling monetary policy: inflation targeting in practice. The North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society hosted by the Department of Economics, University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), 20-24 June 2002. Paper presented: Non linear and asymmetric adjustment in the local revenue-expenditure models: some evidence from the Italian municipalities.

57th Econometric Society European Meeting (ESEM 2002) held in Venice, 25-28 August 2002. Papers presented: (i) Modelling monetary policy: inflation targeting in practice, and (ii) Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models.

ESRC conference on Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility, held in City University Business School (London), 6-7 December 2002. Paper presented: Common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets: Evidence from a non-linear vector autoregression approach.

11th Annual Meeting of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, held in Florence, 1315 March 2003. Paper presented: Non-linear inflationary dynamics: Evidence from the UK. 35th Annual Conference of the Money Macro and Finance Research Group, 10-12 September 2003 (University of Cambridge). Paper presented: Non-linear inflationary dynamics: Evidence from the UK.

12th Annual Meeting of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, held in the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 11-12 March 2004. I organised (together with Phil Rothman) a session on Macroeconomic Time Series and presented the paper Multivariate STAR unemployment rate forecasts.

3rd Conference of the Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research at the University of Manchester, 15-16 July 2004. Paper presented: Uncertainty and UK monetary policy. 36th Annual Conference of the Money Macro and Finance Research Group, 6-8 September 2004 (City University Business School). Paper presented: Uncertainty and UK monetary policy. 13th Annual Meeting of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, City University (London), 31 March-1 April 2005. Paper presented: Uncertainty and monetary policy in the United States.

Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2006, held at Nottingham University, 18-20 April 2006. Paper presented: Uncertainty and UK monetary policy. 17th (EC)2 Conference-Rotterdam, 15-16 December 2006. Paper presented: Testing the opportunistic approach to monetary policy. Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2007, held at Warwick University, April 2007. Paper presented: Testing the opportunistic approach to monetary policy.

SKILLS: a) Software Experience in Windows 2000, Gauss, TSP, RATS, Eviews, PcGive, Spssx, Microfit and Excel. b) Foreign languages: Greek (native), Italian (fluent).