Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 03, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 03, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
You have to pay more now as deposit money to trade in commodity futures
Commodity market regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC) has fixed a new minimum capital requirement for members to trade on exchanges. Members have to deposit the amount with the exchange and will not get any trading exposure based on the fund. The regulator has observed that the commodity exchanges give members exposure on their entire security deposit. As a result, when a member defaults, there is practically no deposit with the exchange which can be used for settlement of claims of the clients and payment of arbitration fee by the members, FMC said, in a statement. Therefore, the Commission, after consulting with the national commodity exchanges, has prescribed a different base minimum capital requirement for trading in exchanges, it said. (Source: Business Line)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on April 02, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19041 5748 54.43 97.19 1575

0.93 0.77 0.48 0.12 -1.56

1.80 1.89 -0.09 0.88 -1.30

0.93 0.77 0.48 0.12 -1.56

8.94 8.09 7.15 -7.64 -6.10

.Source: Reuters

Sugar output down 2% at 23.05 mt till March

Sugar production till March-end of the current 2012-13 sugar year is down 2% at 23.05 million tonne, the Indian Sugar Mills Association said. In the corresponding last year, sugar output stood at 23.45 mn tn. Average recovery or the amount of sugar produced from the cane crushed stood at 10.09% during the current season, about 0.2% lower than year. As the crushing season in most parts of the country enters the last phase, more than half of the 520 mills that were operational have stopped functioning. Cane crushing will soon end in states such as Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab and Madhya Pradesh. Despite drought impacting cane production in Maharashtra, the State has produced 7.7 mn tn of sugar, about 4% lower than last year. Sugar recovery is marginally lower at 11.33% against last years 11.53%. About 116 mills have closed their operations in Maharashtra. In Uttar Pradesh, sugar output stood at 6.75 mn tn, marginally higher than corresponding last years 6.67 m t. About 102 mills are still operational in UP, where crushing is likely to go on till end-April. Karnataka has produced 3.29 mn tn of sugar till March-end, about 7% lower than last year. Similarly, Tamil Nadus sugar output is down 3% at 1.35 m t. (Source: Business Line)

Rajasthan mulls bonus to procure wheat

Restricted trading in the market kept dara wheat and flour prices firm on Tuesday. Radhey Shyam, a commodity expert, told Business Line that millers and bulk buyers are buying according to their requirement currently as prices are likely to fall this week. Traders expect that wheat prices may drop by Rs 30-50/qtl this week. Flour mills are procuring stocks from the Food Corporation of India also to meet their demand at Rs 1,460, excluding tax. According to trade experts, wheat arrivals in Haryana could fall this year as the farmers living in villages adjoining Rajasthan would be tempted to sell wheat in their State. (Source: Business
Line)

Wheat procurement not started yet in Punjab, Haryana

With wheat harvesting getting delayed because of untimely rains and low temperature, wheat purchases for central pool could not take place in Punjab and Haryana on April 1, which is the first day of rabi marketing season 2013-14. Wheat procurement has not started yet in Punjab as crop harvesting has delayed, an official of FCI said. There has not been any arrival of crop in Haryana so far. Therefore, wheat purchase has not commenced, an official of Haryana Food and Supplies department said here. Wheat harvesting in Punjab and Haryana is expected to pick up after mid of April as crop has still not ripened in view of untimely rain lashing the various parts of northern region last week and unexpectedly low temperature, farm experts said. Key wheat growing states of Punjab and Haryana are eyeing all-time high crop buying of 227.30 lakh tonnes, up by 5 per cent over last seasons purchase. (Source: Business Line)

U.S. grain sales dry up as farmers wait for higher prices

U.S. farmers who tasted record-high prices for corn during last summer's historic drought are abandoning long-held selling strategies in hopes that the market serves up another rally. Farmers say they are turning away from the traditional practice of making early sales of corn, the most widely produced grain in the United States, after missing out on big profits when prices peaked last September. In the spring, they typically strike deals to sell a portion of the crop they expect to harvest in the fall to cover some costs for items like seed and fertilizer. The practice, known as forward selling or forward contracting, normally provides good returns for farmers before prices dip with the start of the fall harvest. The lack of advance sales this year is creating pain for buyers like food and animalfeed companies, which like to lock in purchases of corn early in the year to map out some of their costs and ensure they will have a supply of grain. (Source: Reuters)

Cabinet may consider cut in non-urea fertilisers subsidy

To reduce its subsidy burden, the Cabinet is likely to consider lowering the rates on various nutrients for decontrolled potassic and phosphatic fertilisers. Once approved, the move will bring down the decontrolled fertiliser subsidy bill by about 15 per cent, which is less than the Budget estimate. At present, urea comes under the category of controlled fertiliser and its retail prices are fixed by the Government. The difference between its retail and cost price is paid as subsidy. (Source: Business Line)

Egypt's wheat imports to fall 8-10 pct in 2013- Ag Min

Egypt plans to cut its state wheat imports this year by around 10 percent, with the world's largest grain importer relying instead on its domestic crop and building storage, Egypt's Agriculture minister said on Tuesday. Egypt is the world's biggest wheat importer, buying about 10 million tonnes a year or around half of its consumption, with purchases shared between state wheat buyer General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) and private importers. But two years of political turmoil and economic crisis since the ousting of autocrat Hosni Mubarak have eroded hard currency reserves at a rate of about $1 billion a month, raising questions about Egypt's ability to purchase in open tenders. (Source: Reuters)

Base import price cut for vegetable oils

The Government has reduced the tariff value or base import price on RBD palmolein and crude palmolein by $11 a tn in line with the softening trend in global prices. For gold, the base import price has been hiked by $5 to $521 for 10 gram against $516 a fortnight ago. However, for silver it has been lowered to $920 a kg from the earlier $930, according to a notification by the Central Board for Excise and Customs. The base import price for refined, bleached and deodorised (RBD) palmolein has now been fixed at $863 a tn against $874 a fortnight earlier. Similarly, the base import price for crude palmolein stands reduced at $860 a tn against $871. Also, the base import price on crude soyabean oil has decreased to $1,093 a tn from $1,147 a fortnight ago. (Source: Business Line)

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 03, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana prices gained for the third consecutive session on Tuesday good demand from stockists at lower levels. The spot as well as the futures settled 2.8% and 1.3% higher on Tuesday. Arrivals have gained momentum across India and are expected to gain further in the coming weeks. The government has extended ban on export of pulses till March 31, 2014. According to DGFT, there is an exception with export of kabuli chana, organic pulses and lentils being allowed up to a ceiling of 10,000 metric tonnes per annum.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3429 3435 Prev day 2.81 1.30

as on April 02, 2013 % change WoW MoM 3.90 -2.52 2.32 2.78 YoY -1.73 -4.79

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Chana Sowing
Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to reduce import dependence. Chana sowing in the current season is 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MP and AP at 15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh ha respectively.

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX April contract

Production
According to second advance Estimates released on 8 Feb 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down 3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at 5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9 mn tn. However, erratic weather in M.P. may lower the yield. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).
th

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Apr 03, 2013 Resistance 3455-3475

3370-3400

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to 0.46 lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook
Chana prices may trade on a mixed note as higher arrival pressure is expected to keep prices under downside pressure, while strong buying by the stockists at lower levels may support the prices at lower levels.

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 03, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures extended the gains further on Tuesday on expectations that the government may take a decision on decontrol in the coming days. Lower output figures during October March 2013 also supported the prices. However, release of higher non levy quota for the next six months is seen capping sharp gains in the prices. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.78% and 0.37% higher on Tuesday. Indian sugar mills produced 23 million tonnes of the sweetener between Oct. 1 and March 31, about 2 percent less than a year earlier. The Central Government has decided to make available quantity of 104 lakh tons of sugar, as non-levy quota for open market sale, for the 6 months of April, 2013 to September, 2013. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs will take up the issue of sugar decontrol during its meeting on Thursday, according to Union Minister of State for Food and Consumer Affairs K.V. Thomas. Barring two key regulations with respect to fixing sugarcane price and sharing of 70 per cent revenue by sugar firms with farmers, the Rangarajan Committee report has suggested giving freedom to mills to sell sugar in the open market and having a stable export and import policy.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3055

as on April 02, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.78 0.51 MoM -3.51 YoY 6.39

Rs/qtl

2955

0.37

1.37

-1.63

6.79

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMay'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE May '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 502.4 390.89

as on April 02, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.18 -0.57 -2.22 -1.07 MoM -2.24 -1.79 YoY -21.88 -28.44

.Source: Reuters

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that the sugar output in 2013-14 may fall to around 24 mn tn against current years output of 24.5 mn tn. There are reports that some mills in Maharashtra have stopped crushing due to non availability of cane.

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Exports

India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said last week. Indian sugar mills produced 21.05 mn tn of the sweetener between Oct. 1 and March 15, down 1% from a year ago. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.8 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

Source: Telequote

Global Sugar Updates

Liffe sugar as well as Raw sugar Futures on ICE settled 0.18% and 0.57% lower respectively on Tuesday closing around 2 year lows on expectations of a bumper output from Brazil. Expectations of abundant supplies from the 2013-14 harvest in the centre-south of Brazil and other leading producers, such as Thailand, Mexico and the United States have pressurized prices. According to FO Litch, Brazil's center-south sugar production is expected to reach 36.2 million tonnes in 2013/14, up from 34.1 million tonnes in the previous season. Czarnikow on Wednesday raised its forecast for a projected global sugar surplus to 9.1 mn tn, raw value, up from Decembers projection of 7.8 mn tn in 2012-13, citing higher-than-expected production in the key centresouth region of Brazil. The main adjustment on the production side is the increase in CS Brazil output following a successful end to the crushing season at a new record high of 34.1 million tonnes.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Apr NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Apr 03, 2013 Resistance 2965-2975

2920-2940

Outlook
Prices are may continue to trade higher on expectations of a decision by the government on decontrol. Emergence of demand from the bulk manufacturers may support the prices at lower levels. However, higher levy quota coupled with need based demand may keep prices under check.

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 03, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean Futures traded on a positive to bullish note
yesterday as lower supplies in the domestic markets supported prices at lower levels. The spot as well as the futures settled 0.97% and 2.52% higher on Tuesday. Exports of Soybean meal during February, 2013 was 5,77,589 tones as compared to 3,70,524 tonnes in February, 2012 showing an increase by 55.88% over the last year. According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output is pegged at 29.4 mn tn, down by 1.1%, while soybean output is pegged higher at 12.9 mn tn, up 3.2%.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3756 3725 694.8 699.2 Prev day 0.97 2.52 0.52 2.18

as on April 02, 2013

WoW 0.64 -0.20 0.56 0.77

MoM 10.57 12.47 1.59 3.23

YoY 22.87 20.28 -7.45 -7.21

International Markets
Soybean Futures on CBOT recovered from lower levels on Tuesday and settled 0.23% higher on account of wet weather in Brazil coupled with higher meal prices in the US. However, larger than expected stocks report released by the USDA capped sharp gains. Stocks were reported at 999 mn bushels against expectations of 905 mn bushels. US soybean plantings intentions for the 2013/14 crop year was reported at 77.126 mn acres, below market forecasts for 78.394 mn acres. According to the trade ministry, Brazils March exports were reported at 3.54 mn tn as against 0.96 mn tn in February, but lower than 4.24 mn tn in March last year. Informa trimmed its forecast of U.S. 2013 soybean plantings to 78.457 million acres, from 78.777 million in January, but it is still up from the 77.198 mn acres seeded to soy in 2012. China's April imports will likely be less than 4.5 mn tn, lower than market expectations of about 5 mn tn, due to severe port congestion in Brazil that has delayed shipments.

Source: Reuters

as on April 02, 2013 International Prices Soybean- CBOTMay'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMay'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1394 49.59 Prev day 0.23 -0.94 WoW -3.71 -2.42 MoM -4.81 0.24 YoY -1.90 -11.70

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil

as on April 02, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 1.81 0.90 -2.00 0.13

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Apr '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Mar '13 Futures

Last 2357 460.3

MoM 0.30 0.90

YoY -34.01 -24.45

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil as well as MCX CPO declined by 2.18%
and 0.9% respectively on Tuesday tracking positive domestic edible oil markets as well as positive international markets. India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to October 2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of palm oil in 2011/12 as the edible oil is the cheapest available, despite an import duty. India's vegetable oil imports fell about 17 percent to 969,175 tonnes last month, with palm oil imports dropping to 805,362 tonnes. According to Dorab Mistry, Malaysian palm oil futures could rise to 2,400-2,700 ringgit ($770 to $865) per tons by the end of May due to weaker production and falling trend in palm oil inventories. By end of June 2013, Malaysian palm oil stocks will dip below 2 mn tn and Indonesian stocks would below 4 mn tn. Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures recovered from lower levels and settled 1.2% higher on Tuesday tracking positive edible oil markets. However, increasing arrival pressure of new crop capped sharp upside. Higher output expectations exerted downside pressure on the prices at higher levels. Sowing of Mustard seed is up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 3436 3459 Prev day 0.32 1.20 WoW 0.55 0.03

as on April 02, 2013 MoM -5.52 2.61

Source: Reuters

YoY -11.90 -11.81

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX April contract

Outlook
Soybean prices are expected to trade higher extending previous days gains on account of lower supplies in the domestic markets. However, Supplies from Latin American region coupled with higher stocks in the US may pressurize prices. Mustard seed may gain due to positive oil markets while higher arrivals may pressurize prices. Soy oil and CPO is expected to trade higher on account of positive international prices. Additionally, lower output due to seasonally lower yield may support prices.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Apr NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Apr Futures RM Seed NCDEX Apr Futures CPO MCX Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Apr 03, 2013 Support 691-6996 3665-3690 3405-3430 455-458 Resistance 704-709 3750-3785 3480-3500 462-464

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 03, 2013

Agricultural Commodities h
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures opened lower on account of higher supplies from Karnataka. However, prices recovered from lower levels due to low stocks coupled with robust demand for the Kerala crop. Interstate traders, especially from Tamil Nadu are actively buying the Kerala crop. Low stocks in the warehouses coupled with thin supplies have supported the prices. Karnataka crop is trading at lower levels due inferior quality. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. Some exports of Karnataka pepper from Mangalore port have been reported. However, exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is weak due to price parity. The Spot settled 0.87% lower while the Futures settled 0.21% higher on Tuesday. According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June 2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11, 2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date will be announced in due course. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $6,950/tn (C&F, New York). Vietnams Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 36238 35675 % Change Prev day -0.87 0.21

as on April 02, 2013 WoW -0.56 0.63 MoM -6.03 -2.43 YoY -7.38 -8.69

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX April contract

Exports and Imports

Indias pepper exports in 2012 have been reported at just 12,000 tonnes while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making India a net importer. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of pepper in 2012 stood at 116,962 mt, Vietnam shipped 12000 mt of pepper in January 2013. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in 2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Apr Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Apr 03, 2013 Support 35140-35430 Resistance 35910-36110

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 17 tonnes while off takes were reported at 16 tonnes on Tuesday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Harvesting of pepper in some regions in Kerala are already complete.

Outlook
Pepper is expected to trade on a mixed note. Low stocks coupled with good demand from the upcountry markets may support prices at lower levels. Reports that farmers are holding back stocks may also support prices at lower levels. However, higher supplies of pepper from Karnataka may pressurize the prices at higher levels.

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 03, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera futures traded on a flat note yesterday. Higher arrivals of the new crop pressurized prices while, strong overseas demand supported price at lower levels. Expectations on pickup in demand ahead of the wedding season also supported prices. Arrivals of the new crop are averaging around 30,000 bags/ day and are likely to improve in the coming days. New crop from Rajasthan is expected to enter the markets from April. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared with 3.719 lakh ha last year. According to the Rajasthan State Budget 2013-14, it has exempted jeera from VAT. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.24% and 0.19% higher on Tuesday. According to markets sources the exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,400 tn (FOB Mumbai) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 5-6 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 13375 13053 Prev day 0.24 0.19

as on April 02, 2013 % Change WoW 0.24 0.27 MoM 1.81 1.16 YoY 7.62 9.32

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX April contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 40,000 tn on Tuesday. Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55 kgs each), same as last year. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tn as compared to 2,369 tn in April 2011, an increase of 6%.

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 1.71 1.40

as on April 02, 2013 % Change

Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 6433 6660

WoW 0.30 1.77

MoM 18.98 10.45

YoY 71.01 67.17

Outlook
Jeera Futures are expected to continue to trade on a mixed note today. Good export demand may support prices while higher arrivals of the new crop may pressurize prices. In the medium term, prices are likely to stay firm as Syria and Turkey have stopped shipments.

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures traded on a positive note for the second consecutive session on account of bargain buying at lower levels coupled with fresh overseas demand. Output concerns also supported prices at lower levels. Unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh have damaged about 9240 tonnes of turmeric. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 1.71% and 1.4% higher on Tuesday.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX April contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals Nizamabad mandi stood at 10,000 bags on Tuesday. Erode will remain closed for 10 days on account of Mariamman festival. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric is expected to continue to trade higher in the intraday. Fresh export demand coupled with demand from stockists may also support prices. Crop damage and lower output concerns may also help to push up the prices However, higher supplies of the fresh crop coupled with huge carryover stocks may pressurize prices from higher levels.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX Apr Futures Turmeric NCDEX April Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Apr 03, 2013

Support 12900-12980 6480-6570 Resistance 13120-13180 6720-6790

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 03, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton declined from higher levels on account of profit booking and settled 0.94% and 0.62% lower respectively on Tuesday. Lower availability coupled with expectations of good export demand from China in the coming days supported the prices. Lower planting intentions data from US also supported prices. However, reports that state-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) would offload stocks in the open market to augment supplies pressurized the prices. Cotton Corp of India has sought permission to export 1 mn bales. Lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have caused concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government to direct CCI and NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills. CCI is expected to offload 4 lakh bales in the domestic market and NAFED will sell 3.63 lakh cotton bales from the first week of April 2013. India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing earlier estimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its stockpiles. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 944.5 19230

as on April 02, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.94 0.32 -0.62 3.11 MoM -3.18 3.11 YoY #N/A 9.57

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton Mar Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 88.87 94

as on April 02, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 1.69 0.94 -0.84 0.91 MoM 6.20 2.84 YoY -4.56 -9.00

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Boards (CAB) estimates (23 Jan 2013) for 2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton production is pegged 330 lakh bales, down from the previous years estimates of 353 lakh bales. However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports. After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.
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Source: Telequote

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton futures recovered sharply and settled 1.69% higher on Tuesday on the back of firm US financial markets. According to the USDA report released on Thursday, planting intentions for the 2013-14 season are said to be at a 4 year low. Also, there are expectations of good export demand from China. Reports of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve led to a sharp decline last week. China, the worlds largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of cotton this year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn. USDA has initially forecasted US Cotton acreage for 2013-14 season, at smallest in 20 yrs, however, with recent surge in prices, farmers may decide to plant more cotton. The planting intention data is schedule to be released on 28th march 2013.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX April contract

Outlook
In the current week, we expect Cotton prices to trade on a mixed note with a positive bias after US cotton planting intentions were reported at a 4 year low. Expectations of good export demand may also support prices. However, sharp upside maybe capped as supplies may increase in the open market.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX April Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Apr 03, 2013 Support 925-935 19030-19120 Resistance 955-965 19300-19400

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