Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
03 April 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 5 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
396.00
270.90
396.00
Neutral
Buy
585
0.66
CHEMRING GROUP
264.20
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
327
0.66
COBHAM
247.20
190.10
248.10
Neutral
Buy
291
0.83
MEGGITT
494.20
364.30
494.20
Neutral
Sell
415
1.32
1135.00
781.16
1135.00
Neutral
Neutral
1113
1.07
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
Target
Beta
SMITHS GROUP
1266.00
979.50
1328.00
Neutral
Sell
1064
0.71
1717.00
1424.00
1763.00
Neutral
Sell
1565
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
266.70
173.60
285.00
Neutral
Neutral
Target
257
2.00
INCHCAPE
507.00
305.20
530.00
Neutral
Neutral
502
1.48
LOOKERS
99.00
56.50
100.50
Neutral
Neutral
106
1.24
PENDRAGON
22.50
13.25
25.00
Neutral
Buy
34
1.12
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BARCLAYS
297.50
150.55
327.35
Neutral
Sell
Target
57
Beta
1.93
711.20
503.20
740.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1244
1.17
1.87
49.38
25.29
55.68
Sell
Strong Buy
75
283.70
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
39
1.34
STANDARD CHARTERED
1740.00
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Sell
1123
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
552.00
348.00
572.00
Neutral
Neutral
598
0.55
DIAGEO
2084.50
1477.00
2084.50
Neutral
Sell
1830
0.55
SABMILLER
3552.50
2348.50
3552.50
Sell
Buy
4079
0.95
BARR (AG)
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
391.40
267.60
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
710
CARCLO
413.00
345.75
503.00
Neutral
Neutral
428
0.74
2841.00
2050.00
2841.00
Sell
Sell
2255
1.04
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
Target
Beta
#NA
268.30
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
374
1.00
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2292.00
2080.27
2573.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
12752
1.44
VICTREX
ELEMENTIS
1685.00
1185.00
1736.00
Neutral
Sell
1572
1.13
SYNTHOMER
213.50
127.40
245.30
Neutral
Neutral
230
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
224.00
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
406
0.99
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 6 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
90.00
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
250
0.51
BALFOUR BEATTY
236.50
234.00
320.80
Buy
Strong Buy
1030
0.79
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
Target
Beta
279.70
114.00
279.70
Sell
Strong Buy
475
1.50
BELLWAY
1301.00
660.00
1301.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2030
1.11
2086.00
1177.00
2093.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3513
0.64
BOOT (HENRY)
172.00
115.50
174.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
363
0.83
743.00
399.30
751.00
Neutral
Sell
589
1.14
CARILLION
275.10
235.50
331.80
Buy
Strong Buy
842
1.10
CLARKE (T)
56.13
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
282
0.82
278.50
188.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
581
0.57
1477.00
1052.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
841
1.14
935.00
579.00
965.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1794
0.99
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER
809.50
348.25
830.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2143
1.25
1186.00
1095.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3526
0.94
76.75
49.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
215
1.07
MARSHALLS
127.25
76.00
127.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
301
1.37
550.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3485
0.86
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
NORCROS
18.00
9.25
18.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
37
1.11
1073.00
532.00
1073.00
Neutral
Buy
1191
1.15
REDROW
192.40
107.30
195.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
309
1.05
SIG
160.00
82.30
162.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
497
1.74
3.88
3.88
19.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
50
0.89
93.50
40.28
93.50
Neutral
Neutral
100
1.58
PERSIMMON
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
1465.00
906.50
1465.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2754
1.97
WOLSELEY
3270.00
2121.32
3337.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5481
1.43
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1320.00
925.00
1364.00
Neutral
Sell
786
0.78
645.00
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
864
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
119.50
105.50
149.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
252
1.30
INVENSYS
351.90
186.10
366.80
Neutral
Neutral
350
1.42
LAIRD
221.00
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Sell
87
2.12
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1666.00
1096.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1202
1.01
RENISHAW
1831.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2434
1.26
SPECTRIS
2466.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Sell
2257
1.52
0.07
0.07
0.21
Neutral
Strong Buy
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
176.00
114.00
190.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
410
1.59
XAAR
420.00
185.00
425.00
Neutral
Sell
237
1.11
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
03 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 7 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
83.75
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
105
1.26
BODYCOTE
538.50
310.30
556.50
Neutral
Neutral
516
1.61
CASTINGS
337.00
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
715
0.99
VESUVIUS
351.80
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Buy
503
2.19
FENNER
397.20
329.30
456.50
Neutral
Buy
564
1.42
HALMA
522.00
373.10
531.50
Neutral
Sell
403
0.75
450.75
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
332
1.37
1282.00
776.00
1347.00
Neutral
Buy
1418
1.40
IMI
METALRAX GROUP
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARCO
Target
Beta
3.13
2.93
8.75
Neutral
Neutral
0.85
292.20
220.30
333.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
556
1.82
2922.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
2343
1.00
246.30
177.00
251.80
Neutral
Sell
226
1.65
39.50
35.40
104.11
Neutral
Buy
55
0.73
2734.00
1900.00
2734.00
Neutral
Sell
2345
0.84
VITEC GROUP
641.00
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Sell
602
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2252.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
2080
1.39
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
480.00
449.00
526.00
Neutral
Buy
708
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
283.20
248.60
299.20
Neutral
Sell
209
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
385.50
283.50
385.50
Neutral
Sell
233
0.58
TESCO
385.50
297.05
385.95
Neutral
Sell
294
0.69
69.00
18.88
78.75
Neutral
Sell
49
0.83
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1931.00
1167.00
1931.00
Sell
Buy
2134
0.62
CRANSWICK
1013.00
732.50
1023.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2113
0.49
DAIRY CREST
432.10
290.40
444.00
Neutral
Buy
498
0.92
DEVRO
353.30
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Buy
529
0.31
77.00
54.50
170.00
Neutral
Sell
-183
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
870.50
633.50
870.50
Sell
Strong Buy
1585
0.70
2831.00
2005.00
2831.00
Neutral
Neutral
2814
0.57
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 8 of 17
Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
28.75
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
33
0.69
410.50
222.40
429.30
Neutral
Sell
361
0.53
1325.00
1000.00
1586.00
Neutral
Sell
973
1.27
623.00
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
280
0.94
33.13
12.67
35.00
Neutral
Neutral
36
1.50
5.90
2.76
9.30
Neutral
Sell
1.08
30.00
19.50
47.00
Sell
Strong Buy
110
0.98
HALFORDS GROUP
324.50
189.00
356.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
498
0.67
JD SPORTS FASHION
698.00
606.50
841.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1514
0.52
Target
Beta
42.75
38.00
68.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
81
1.24
KINGFISHER
291.00
254.10
313.80
Neutral
Buy
390
0.92
393.50
312.20
398.80
Neutral
Buy
514
0.64
63.75
42.00
71.00
Buy
Sell
60
1.04
320.75
152.00
362.00
Neutral
Neutral
317
0.46
NEXT
4408.00
2896.00
4408.00
Neutral
Sell
3693
0.66
TED BAKER
1285.00
810.50
1354.00
Neutral
Sell
654
0.55
64.00
32.13
68.00
Neutral
Sell
50
1.48
DARTY
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
146.50
124.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
117
0.45
CONSORT MEDICAL
780.50
584.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
577
0.40
OPTOS
149.50
149.50
279.25
Buy
Buy
166
1.21
768.50
580.00
768.50
Neutral
Sell
690
0.41
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
642.50
557.00
720.50
Neutral
Neutral
629
0.43
HEADLAM GROUP
345.00
263.00
355.00
Neutral
Sell
304
0.92
82.00
55.25
97.00
Neutral
Buy
107
0.75
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
916.00
469.00
971.50
Neutral
Sell
563
0.74
CSR
479.70
194.60
492.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1292
1.17
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
64.00
23.50
83.25
Neutral
Sell
49
0.90
477.30
383.50
713.00
Buy
Neutral
517
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
149.10
139.20
174.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
662
0.95
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
175.00
165.75
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-516
0.91
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 9 of 17
Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1374.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Sell
-726
0.54
AMLIN
428.40
312.90
431.50
Neutral
Sell
-3135
0.46
BEAZLEY
215.80
132.50
215.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
2646
0.59
CATLIN GROUP
529.00
399.00
540.00
Neutral
Buy
769
0.30
HISCOX
568.00
379.26
574.05
Neutral
Strong Buy
2138
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
862.00
659.00
864.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2976
0.31
117.80
97.65
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1720
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
459.00
345.00
475.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
1948
0.47
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2301.00
1900.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3889
1.00
ENTERPRISE INNS
104.30
55.50
114.70
Neutral
Sell
83
1.59
TUI TRAVEL
324.00
158.00
330.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
785
0.99
810.00
700.00
820.00
Neutral
Sell
657
0.38
GREENE KING
702.00
474.30
723.50
Neutral
Sell
620
0.90
LADBROKES
228.00
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Sell
182
0.94
2039.00
1396.63
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1637
1.17
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
582.50
455.40
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
613
1.38
323.80
217.40
350.10
Neutral
Sell
303
1.08
144.30
91.90
162.60
Neutral
Sell
104
1.25
10.25
5.61
13.12
Neutral
Strong Buy
51
1.25
165.00
111.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
507
1.00
0.74
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
468.00
269.20
468.00
Neutral
Sell
319
WETHERSPOON (JD)
532.50
371.30
548.50
Neutral
Buy
741
0.68
WHITBREAD
2576.00
1786.00
2692.00
Neutral
Sell
1936
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
380.40
239.02
411.17
Neutral
Sell
261
0.86
MARSTON'S
141.50
94.40
143.00
Neutral
Sell
30
1.19
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
AVIVA
301.00
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1178
1.25
CHESNARA
239.00
155.25
239.00
Neutral
Buy
356
0.70
175.70
106.00
175.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
297
1.70
OLD MUTUAL
206.10
138.70
211.40
Neutral
Sell
175
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1083.00
660.00
1155.00
Neutral
Sell
960
1.70
510.50
303.40
537.00
Neutral
Sell
430
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
114.50
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-541
0.35
890.50
635.50
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1534
0.54
45.75
28.50
60.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
138
1.01
721.00
363.50
722.00
Sell
Strong Buy
2972
1.12
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
970.00
672.50
970.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6583
0.98
INFORMA
537.00
340.00
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-66
1.53
ITE GROUP
275.00
180.00
289.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
214
1.44
ITV
129.30
69.45
132.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1179
1.54
1.25
CENTAUR MEDIA
JOHNSTON PRESS
14.25
4.88
15.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
1553
1181.00
1111.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
283
0.63
74.50
36.25
82.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2330
0.79
274.00
265.00
377.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
784
0.16
32.84
26.85
33.32
Neutral
Sell
-541
0.52
STV GROUP
130.00
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
243
0.78
ST.IVES
134.50
67.50
139.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
673
1.49
94.25
25.50
121.25
Neutral
Sell
-244
1.57
UBM
709.00
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1600
1.31
WILMINGTON GROUP
161.50
82.00
164.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1192
0.85
WPP
1066.00
743.00
1092.00
Neutral
Sell
-458
1.34
HIBU
0.38
0.26
3.91
Neutral
Strong Buy
724
1.06
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
TRINITY MIRROR
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1674.00
1664.00
2412.00
Buy
Strong Buy
2846
1.75
235.25
221.25
320.00
Neutral
Buy
272
0.99
ANTOFAGASTA
966.50
966.50
1381.00
Neutral
Neutral
934
1.42
1939.50
1681.00
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3395
1.45
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
286.80
240.84
564.35
Neutral
Sell
40
2.04
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
LONMIN
5590.00
4596.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2859
0.34
RIO TINTO
3085.00
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Buy
3410
1.51
4.75
3.75
22.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
163
0.89
832.50
1298.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2388
2.21
785.80
1205.00
Neutral
Sell
1004
1.87
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
XSTRATA
1083.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1154.50
1000.50
1481.00
Neutral
Neutral
1253
0.81
BP
462.50
391.95
475.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1585
1.05
CAIRN ENERGY
270.90
248.20
349.00
Neutral
Sell
-44
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
7.91
7.74
12.50
Buy
Strong Buy
15
0.91
900.00
688.00
954.00
Neutral
Sell
469
1.32
1.36
77.50
55.00
162.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
308
389.30
321.30
403.90
Buy
Sell
298
1.44
2211.50
2039.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
11732
0.86
383.00
254.90
404.30
Neutral
Sell
257
0.52
1248.00
1138.00
1557.00
Neutral
Sell
941
1.06
864.50
651.50
875.50
Neutral
Neutral
835
1.36
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
118.50
102.70
146.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
262
PZ CUSSONS
403.50
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
331
0.69
4746.00
3300.00
4812.00
Neutral
Neutral
4791
0.36
Beta
0.83
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.45
0.37
3.88
Buy
Sell
1.01
3340.00
2591.00
3340.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7198
0.48
BTG
360.10
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
169
0.62
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
769.00
418.33
770.00
Neutral
Neutral
763
0.26
1550.00
1317.50
1550.00
Neutral
Neutral
1496
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.55
1.55
5.80
Strong Buy
Sell
0.64
PHYTOPHARM
1.35
1.35
12.75
Buy
Neutral
0.94
1987.00
1727.00
2153.00
Neutral
Sell
1321
0.65
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
47.00
33.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
-98
0.72
VERNALIS
22.75
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
38
0.89
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
363.50
274.50
387.50
Neutral
Sell
-541
1.15
BRITISH LAND
550.00
467.10
585.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1534
1.03
32.00
22.75
34.25
Sell
Strong Buy
138
0.82
852.50
595.00
865.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2972
0.69
DERWENT LONDON
2164.00
1689.00
2239.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6583
1.21
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
152.50
121.75
176.00
Neutral
Sell
-66
0.97
GRAINGER
138.70
83.10
140.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
214
1.54
505.00
345.60
514.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1179
1.06
1.16
HAMMERSON
497.90
404.50
525.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1553
HELICAL BAR
234.75
164.00
249.75
Neutral
Buy
283
0.75
838.00
704.00
849.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2330
1.15
INTU PROPERTIES
333.20
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
784
1.08
MCKAY SECURITIES
144.50
125.00
145.00
Neutral
Sell
-541
0.72
372.25
311.25
390.00
Neutral
Sell
243
0.42
328.25
312.00
364.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
673
0.35
66.75
32.50
70.00
Sell
Sell
-244
1.17
0.74
533.50
300.80
599.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1600
SHAFTESBURY
587.00
482.20
597.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1192
1.03
SEGRO
254.40
209.40
271.00
Neutral
Sell
-458
1.70
ST MODWEN PROPS.
260.30
145.50
280.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
724
1.55
198.00
147.00
215.00
Neutral
Sell
-14
1.04
UNITE GROUP
323.80
180.25
330.00
Neutral
Sell
33
1.75
1.23
1.00
3.00
Sell
Sell
-1007
1.02
352.00
213.25
363.20
Neutral
Sell
1.02
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
125.80
111.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
124
0.76
2265.00
1469.00
2322.00
Neutral
Sell
1333
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
544.00
292.40
544.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1363
1.00
KOFAX
319.00
240.00
325.75
Neutral
Neutral
326
1.12
25.25
18.25
25.50
Neutral
Neutral
25
0.83
706.00
426.17
706.00
Neutral
Buy
1000
0.79
PHOENIX IT GROUP
142.00
135.00
231.75
Buy
Strong Buy
314
0.74
77.00
70.25
89.00
Neutral
Sell
-93
0.52
1945.00
1275.00
1970.00
Neutral
Neutral
2109
0.77
342.30
247.70
352.10
Neutral
Buy
422
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
433.60
237.30
441.90
Neutral
Sell
167
BREWIN DOLPHIN
206.00
136.30
222.00
Neutral
Sell
122
0.71
10600.00
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Sell
9851
0.83
0.97
CAMELLIA
Target
Beta
1.09
377.50
247.50
377.50
Neutral
Sell
169
CHARLES TAYLOR
183.00
132.00
190.00
Neutral
Sell
99
0.68
1059.00
673.50
1107.00
Neutral
Sell
165
0.87
105.10
64.75
110.40
Neutral
Neutral
101
0.89
3.17
0.55
3.70
Sell
Strong Buy
28
0.68
HENDERSON GROUP
162.00
90.55
171.00
Neutral
Sell
48
1.44
ICAP
308.10
281.40
396.50
Neutral
Sell
194
1.07
1.68
HELPHIRE GROUP
427.60
227.30
427.60
Neutral
Sell
200
INVESTEC
462.00
310.40
513.50
Neutral
Sell
87
1.55
1329.00
930.00
1411.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3883
1.12
88.55
63.25
130.10
Neutral
Neutral
92
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
MAN GROUP
1482.00
1151.00
1532.00
Neutral
Sell
1111
0.74
SCHRODERS
2135.00
1166.00
2160.00
Neutral
Sell
1248
1.31
SCHRODERS NV
1744.00
966.00
1744.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4180
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
230.00
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Buy
296
0.93
AGGREKO
1780.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Sell
1300
1.04
AMEC
1082.00
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Neutral
1141
1.04
609.00
212.20
609.00
Sell
Sell
319
1.61
1103.00
793.50
1106.00
Neutral
Sell
669
0.48
520.00
317.00
530.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
808
0.77
1310.00
990.00
1320.00
Neutral
Sell
828
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
374.25
214.00
380.00
Neutral
Buy
447
0.38
CAPITA
913.50
602.00
913.50
Neutral
Sell
524
0.50
50.50
25.34
53.50
Neutral
Buy
68
0.78
COMPASS GROUP
852.50
616.00
852.50
Sell
Sell
609
0.74
BERENDSEN
812.00
462.00
812.00
Sell
Buy
986
1.04
DE LA RUE
969.50
885.50
1075.00
Neutral
Sell
607
#NA
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
DIGNITY
1406.00
803.50
1435.00
Neutral
Sell
798
0.21
DIPLOMA
560.50
417.00
627.50
Neutral
Sell
488
0.95
ELECTROCOMP.
256.40
195.20
265.00
Neutral
Buy
322
1.03
FILTRONA
744.00
428.00
744.00
Sell
Sell
348
1.10
G4S
295.60
240.00
307.50
Neutral
Neutral
294
0.58
97.50
66.40
100.00
Neutral
Buy
122
1.10
HOMESERVE
200.90
137.50
252.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
489
0.93
INTERSERVE
510.50
270.10
510.50
Neutral
Buy
697
1.27
3424.00
2406.00
3440.00
Neutral
Sell
1456
0.78
43.38
26.50
44.63
Neutral
Strong Buy
95
1.17
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
31.25
21.25
39.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
55
0.71
MENZIES (JOHN)
707.00
542.00
789.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1310
1.43
419.50
341.40
485.00
Neutral
Sell
320
1.41
MITIE GROUP
282.40
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Buy
345
0.55
94.00
91.50
160.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
241
0.35
PAYPOINT
883.00
605.00
901.00
Neutral
Sell
692
0.70
PREMIER FARNELL
221.00
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Buy
285
1.32
REGUS
166.50
82.65
166.50
Neutral
Sell
108
1.45
RENTOKIL INITIAL
100.70
69.40
100.70
Neutral
Sell
56
1.25
REXAM
547.50
394.28
547.50
Neutral
Buy
639
0.91
HAYS
INTERTEK GROUP
OFFICE2OFFICE
RICARDO
417.00
304.50
431.00
Neutral
Buy
473
0.85
ROBERT WALTERS
228.00
176.25
264.63
Neutral
Buy
312
1.23
RPC GROUP
390.00
348.30
477.00
Neutral
Buy
539
0.78
RPS GROUP
269.00
197.00
272.40
Neutral
Sell
249
1.50
SERCO GROUP
632.00
509.50
634.00
Neutral
Sell
583
0.59
SHANKS GROUP
76.00
75.80
98.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
170
1.46
SPEEDY HIRE
50.00
22.25
50.00
Sell
Neutral
53
1.25
145.50
70.00
149.00
Neutral
Sell
51
0.55
59.00
39.50
59.00
Neutral
Neutral
62
0.92
340.75
234.75
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
626
0.86
74.50
42.00
75.00
Sell
Strong Buy
182
0.78
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
281.70
200.70
281.70
Neutral
Buy
317
42.29
27.28
42.63
Neutral
Strong Buy
79
0.69
710.50
390.80
710.50
Neutral
Sell
595
0.53
Beta
0.90
81.25
67.00
85.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
122
1.24
1035.00
677.00
1035.00
Neutral
Sell
677
0.11
192.00
154.45
192.00
Neutral
Sell
162
0.54
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
269.00
178.00
269.00
Neutral
Sell
197
390.00
309.50
425.00
Neutral
Buy
452
0.98
CLARKSON
1557.00
1150.00
1557.00
Neutral
Sell
1459
0.81
EASYJET
1128.00
471.00
1128.00
Neutral
Sell
664
0.74
216.10
175.70
260.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
554
0.90
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1028.00
535.00
1045.00
Neutral
Sell
390
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1501.00
1086.00
1513.00
Neutral
Buy
1842
0.89
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
1.29
NATIONAL EXPRESS
209.10
164.50
237.20
Neutral
Buy
248
1.33
NORTHGATE
315.00
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
598
1.40
STAGECOACH GROUP
312.80
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
360
0.89
45.00
31.00
78.50
Sell
Sell
-43
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
373.80
306.30
373.80
Neutral
Buy
493
0.46
NATIONAL GRID
778.00
633.00
778.00
Neutral
Neutral
842
0.49
PENNON GROUP
625.00
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
784
0.58
SSE
1507.00
1294.00
1507.00
Neutral
Buy
1765
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
1700.00
1507.00
1796.00
Neutral
Sell
1517
0.34
706.50
594.00
747.50
Neutral
Neutral
671
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
03 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. IntelliSys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
IntelliSys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of IntelliSys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or stock
market index. IntelliSys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary systems to
derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to be accurate but
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of the source
data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely upon the
IntelliSys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice specific to
their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial Services and
Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this
report. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or
completeness or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or
sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In
no event will Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited, IntelliSys or any of its officers, employees or agents be
liable to any other party for any direct, indirect, special or other consequential damages arising from the use
of this report.
The Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or IntelliSys reports are not directed to any person in any
jurisdiction where (by reason of that persons nationality, residence or otherwise) the publication or
availability of the Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or IntelliSys information may be prohibited.
Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access the Intellisys Intelligent Analysis
Limited and/or IntelliSys reports. Neither this document, nor any copy in whatever form of media, may be
taken or transmitted into the United States, Canada, Australia, Ireland, South Africa or Japan or into any
jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a
violation of relevant local securities laws. Recipients of Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or IntelliSys
reports outside the UK are not covered by the rules and regulations made for the protection of investors in
the UK.
Any user distributing information taken from any IntelliSys reports and/or the IntelliSys website, in whatever
form, to any other person, agrees to attach a copy of this Disclaimer and the Terms and Conditions of Use
pages and obtain the agreement of such other person to comply with the terms set forth.
IntelliSys' published reports are published for information purposes and only available to market
counterparties, high net-worth and sophisticated individual investors.
No IntelliSys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it form the basis of any contract
entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
IntelliSys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any
person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 16 of 17
may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 April 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 17 of 17