IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

DESIGN WIND SPEEDS IN

CYCLONIC REGIONS



























IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
DESIGN WIND SPEEDS IN
CYCLONIC REGIONS

(revised edition)



J .D. Holmes












J une 2011
1
CONTENTS
Page

Executive summary 2

1. Introduction . 4

2. History of cyclonic design wind speeds and regional system in AS/NZS1170.2.. 9

3. Simulation methods for prediction of cyclonic wind speeds . 18

4. Vertical profiles in tropical cyclones and hurricanes ............. 24

5. Inland weakening and penetration of tropical cyclones 31

6. Observed effects of climate change on tropical cyclones worldwide .. 39

7. Observed trends in tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region .. 45

8. Predicted future effects of climate change on tropical cyclones . 50

9. Observations and projections for the Northern Territory . 57

10. Comments and observations from Cyclone Yasi 66

11. Conclusions and recommendations.. 70

Appendix A - Maximum recorded wind gusts from tropical cyclones at selected
locations in Australia . 77

Appendix B Proposal for a new definition of the peak gust for AS/NZS1170.2 . 81

Appendix C Wind field model for Cyclone Yasi . 92

Acknowledgements 105


2
Executive Summary

The objective of the review described in this report, carried out by JDH Consulting on
behalf of the Australian Building Codes Board, is to determine whether there is
sufficient information and justification to change design wind speeds in cyclonic
regions of Australia in the Australian Standard for Wind Actions (AS/NZS1170.2): a)
with reference to currently available wind data, b) with reference to recent extreme
events, such as Cyclone Yasi, and c) with particular reference to climate change.

The original (2008) version of this report recommended that the situation be
reviewed every 3 to 5 years to consider improved model predictions, and any
evidence of changing patterns of climate change on tropical cyclones in the
Australian region. This report is the first of those reviews. All chapters of the
original report have been revised and an additional chapter (Chapter 10 on Cyclone
Yasi) and two new Appendices have been added for the 2011 version.

The history of the regional wind speed system for the tropical-cyclone affected
coastlines of Australia, developed since the 1970s, is described, and the probabilistic
simulation approach used for hurricane wind speed prediction in the United States,
and used in the past for guidance in Australia, is outlined. Available data on the
vertical profile of cyclonic wind gusts with height is reviewed, and the background to
the gust profiles in the Standard is given. The inland weakening and penetration of
tropical cyclones is reviewed; in comparison with U.S. data, on average the current
regional widths in AS/NZS1170.2 appear to be adequate.

Recent studies of climate change effects on tropical cyclones are reviewed, including
work reported between 2008 and 2011. These indicate that in the Australian
Region, the total number of cyclones has diminished. This can be related to the
preponderance of El Nino events affected Australias climate during the last few
decades. However, there is evidence that the number of the more severe events
has increased. Simulations of future climate, with projected increases in CO
2

concentrations, also predict fewer cyclones, but further increases in the more severe
tropical cyclones and a southerly drift in the genesis region on the Queensland coast.
This may indicate a greater risk of a severe cyclone affecting Brisbane and South-east
Queensland than was assumed in the past.

A review of the recent cyclones affecting the Northern Territory indicates that the
risk to the northern coastal strip and offshore islands may also be greater than
currently implied by the Standard. However, upgrading of Darwin or the Northern
Territory Coast to Region D is not justified on present evidence.

A review of the wind field overland in Cyclone Yasi (February 2011) is given. It was
found that the maximum wind gust speeds over the land were up to 94% of the
design wind speed (V
500
) for the majority of buildings in Region C.


3
A number of recommendations have been made both with respect to the Standard,
AS/NZS1170.2, and more generally with regard to the database and measurements
of the Bureau of Meteorology are made. The main recommendations are as follows:

- The peak wind gust used as the basis for the Australian/New Zealand
Standard AS/NZS1170.2 needs re-definition, as it clearly is not the 3-second
gust used by the Bureau of Meteorology and the World Meteorological
Organization. A proposal for the re-definition of the peak gust in
AS/NZS1170.2 is given in this report (Appendix B).
- The current F
C
and F
D
factors in Section 3.4 of AS/NZS1170.2 should be
incorporated into the regional wind speeds for cyclonic Regions C and D.
- An extension of the current Region D boundary in the northeast direction
along the coast of Western Australia to 15
o
S is recommended. There is also
a case to upgrade the most northerly offshore islands of the Northern
Territory and the northerly part of the Cobourg Peninsula. However, a
decision on the latter should be deferred until a detailed re-assessment of
the maximum wind speeds in Cyclones Thelma, Ingrid and Monica has
been made.
- An upgrading of the current Region B in Queensland between 25
o
S and 27
o
S
to Region C, as previously proposed, should also be put on hold until further
evidence, from climate model simulations with higher resolution, is available.
Although there is a consensus from current models that cyclones will occur
on average about 2 degrees further south, they also agree that fewer
cyclones will occur by up to 30%.

However, an informative note should be
added to AS/NZS1170.2 and AS4055, warning of the possibility of cyclones up
to Category 3 penetrating further south along the Queensland coast.
- Ongoing monitoring should be carried out of predictions emerging from
global and regional climate models as their resolution and reliability
improves.
- Further rectification of errors and removal of inconsistencies in the
assessment of wind speed in the tropical cyclone database maintained by the
Bureau of Meteorology is required. Also an indication of the averaging time.
accuracy and reliability of wind speed values given in this database should be
included, particularly those that are derived indirectly from satellite
observations.
- A recent project (funded in part by the Department of Climate Change and
Energy Efficiency) on the response of the anemometer systems used in the
past and present by the Bureau of Meteorology has shown there are
significant differences between the pre-1990 readings from Dines
anemometers and those from the current Automatic Weather Stations,
particularly at stations affected by tropical cyclones. The Bureau of
Meteorology should provide details of the change-over dates of the
anemometers so that appropriate corrections of the historical database can
be made.
- More resources should be devoted to the instrumentation of cyclonic wind
speeds in Australia, including the adoption of proven technologies from
overseas, such as dropwindsondes and mobile tower arrays.
4
1. Introduction

1.1 Project scope

Buildings and many other structures in Australia are designed for wind loads using
the Australian/New Zealand Standard Structural design actions, Part 2: wind actions
(Standards Australia, 2011). This document is called up by the Building Code of
Australia (BCA) administered by the Australian Building Codes Board (ABCB).

The Commentary to AS/NZS1170.2:2002 (Standards Australia 2002, but now
withdrawn) stated: The Standard does not attempt to predict the effects of possible
future climatic changes, as the evidence for changes in wind speeds is inconclusive.
With clear evidence from climate scientists that global warming is occurring with
apparent effects on the frequency and intensity of windstorms, it is clear that
community and design professionals expect more guidance in the Standard when
planning and designing structures with anticipated lives of 25 to 100 years.

The Australian Building Codes Board has particular concerns about possible
increased cyclonic wind speeds for the northern coastline of Australia, and has
specified the following scope in 2008 for the study which is the subject of this report.
There is also some concern about the implications of the severity of the winds
produced by Tropical Cyclone Yasi, which crossed the coast of north Queensland on
February 3
rd
2011.

- Objective

The objective of the study is to determine whether there is sufficient information
and justification to change design wind speeds in cyclonic regions of Australia a) with
reference to currently available wind data, and b) with particular reference to
climate change.

- Work Plan (2008 report)

To achieve the above objective, the study should include two parts:

o A review of available cyclonic wind speed data and other relevant data to
determine whether the current definitions of cyclonic regions and wind
speeds are appropriate including the boundaries of the cyclonic regions.
o An assessment on how climate change would impact on design wind
speeds. This should include
A review of probable scenarios for climate change
A review of cyclonic wind models
5
An analysis of how climate change would impact on design wind
speeds in cyclonic regions including the possibility of extending
the cyclone region boundaries

- Reference Sources

The study is to take into account any known relevant information sources, including
but not limited to, the following:

o AS1170.2-1989
o AS/NZS1170.2:2011
o Bureau of Meteorology data on cyclonic regions
o Cyclone Testing Station Report on Cyclone George
o Nicholls report (Community Group for the Review of NT Cyclone Risks)
o CSIRO Research Reports on Climate Change
o BRANZ Report An assessment of the need to adapt buildings for
unavoidable consequences of climate change
o Data from Indian Ocean Climate Change Initiative
o Data from Queensland Climate Change Centre for Excellence

For the current (2011) revision of the report, the following additional tasks were
proposed:

- To consider the comments made by Dr. Jeff Kepert of the Bureau of
Meteorology on the 2008 report
- To consult with the climate change experts who were consulted in 2008,
regarding more recent predictions of the computer models on cyclone
occurrences and strengths, and amend the report if necessary.
- Re-assess the boundaries of the cyclonic regions following tropical cyclones
that have occurred since 2008, particularly Cyclone Yasi in February 2011.
- To make recommendations on the future values of the F
c
and F
D
, including
whether or not these factors should be in fact be retained, or amalgamated
with the regional wind speed, V
R
.
- Revise Chapter 9 on Observations and predictions for the Northern Territory
following publication of a paper in 2009 in the Journal of Applied
Meteorology and Climatology of the American Meteorological Society by G.
Cook and M. Nicholls: Estimation of tropical cyclone wind hazard for
Darwin: comparison with two other locations and the Australian wind
loading code, and subsequent submission of a discussion paper commenting
on it.
- Revise Chapter 4 on Vertical profiles in tropical cyclones and hurricanes
following recent work on dropwindsondes from aircraft flying through
hurricanes and on radar measurements.
- Consider the implications for the cyclone regions of the re-definition of the 3-
second gust by the Bureau of Meteorology in recent years (as revealed by a
recent project carried out for the Department of Climate Change and Energy
Efficiency).
6
- Produce firm documented proposals for submission for discussion and
recommendation by subcommittee BD006-02 of Standards Australia.

1.2 Australian Tropical Cyclone database

The National Climate Centre of the Bureau of Meteorology maintains a database of
information on tropical cyclones from 1906 onwards recorded in the Australian
Region, which is defined as the region south of the Equator between 105
o
and 160
o
E
longitude. The database has extensive column fields for parameters relevant to the
tropical cyclones that have occurred in the Region. The database lists daily
observations, or estimations, of many variables. The following are relevant to the
present report: latitude and longitude of the centre of the storm, central pressure,
outer radius, eye diameter, maximum wind speed and direction, direction and speed
of storm movement.

Since about 1970 satellite information has been available. This has enabled virtually
all cyclones in the Australian Region to be identified and their position to be located
fairly accurately. Using a technique devised by Dvorak (1984) satellite images have
also been used to estimate the strength of cyclones. The cloud patterns in the
vicinity of the eye are used to estimate the maximum wind speed (assumed to be a
sustained wind speed at 10 metres above the surface), and hence through a formula,
the central pressure. Data derived in this way are generally those found in the
database, and only rarely are reliable direct observations available in the Australian
Region. This contrasts with the Atlantic Ocean where, in most cases, aircraft flights
have been made to determine the storm strength with reasonable accuracy. It has
been suggested that changes to satellite images interpreted by the Dvorak technique
have resulted in false trends in intensity estimates over the last 30-40 years in the
Australian database.

It is also known that there are many errors in the Tropical Cyclone database, and the
Bureau of Meteorology currently has a programme of work to correct these.

1.3 Occurrence of tropical cyclones in the Australian Region

Figure 1.1 shows the average number of occurrences of tropical cyclones in 2
o
2
o

squares in Australian waters based on data from the tropical cyclone database
maintained by the Bureau of Meteorology, (Abbs et al., 2006).

Figure 1.1 shows four regions of significant tropical cyclone occurrence: the north-
west coastline of Western Australia near Broome, the Timor Sea off the Northern
Territory coast, the Gulf of Carpentaria, and the Coral Sea offshore from Queensland.
7
It is noted that cyclonic activity is closest to the coast line offshore from the Western
Australian coastline near Broome.




Figure 1.1. Average number of days per year that tropical cyclones occurred in the
Australian region in 1970-2000 (from Abbs et al., 2006).


The regions of cyclonic activity shown in Figure 1.1 are largely reflected in the
present regional zoning system for wind speeds in the Australian Standard
AS/NZS1170.2:2011, although consideration of cyclonic wind speeds are not
explicitly required by the Standard for Perth in Western Australia, or for the coastline
of Northern New South Wales. It is noted that Cyclone Alby produced significant
wind speeds (up to 75 knots) in the Perth area in 1978.

1.4 Structure of this report

In the following Chapter 2, the history of the development of design wind speeds
from tropical cyclones, and the associated regional boundaries in
AS/NZS1170.2:2011 and its predecessors, is outlined. In Chapter 3, probabilistic
simulation methods that are currently used to determine hurricane design wind
speeds in the United States, and have been used for guidance in Australia in the past,
are discussed. Vertical profiles of wind speeds in tropical cyclones are discussed in
Chapter 4. This is relevant, not only for conversion of design wind speeds at the
standard reference height of 10 metres in open over-land terrain to other heights
and other terrains, but also to convert upper-level wind speeds from simulation
models, and those given in the Bureau of Meteorology database, to surface
conditions. Chapter 5 reviews recent work on the inland penetration and weakening
8
of tropical cyclones and hurricanes and compares it with the weakening implied by
the regional system in Australia.

Climate change issues are discussed in Chapters 6-8. Chapter 6 reviews observations
of global changes in tropical cyclone activity in relation to increased greenhouse gas
concentrations and sea surface temperatures. In Chapter 7, studies of changes in
cyclonic activity in the Australian Region during the last few decades are reviewed.
Recent simulations of future changes in tropical-cyclone activity in the Australian
Region are discussed in Chapter 8. Chapter 9 reviews some recent work from
Darwin concerning cyclone risk specific to the Northern Territory. Chapter 10
reviews recent investigations of the windfield of Cyclone Yasi which crossed the
coast of North Queensland in February 2011, and discusses implications with respect
to the Australian Standard for Wind Actions AS/NZS1170.2:2011 (Standards Australia
2011). Chapter 11 contains conclusions and recommendations, including comments
on possible future changes to the cyclonic regional boundaries in AS/NZS1170.2.
There are three Appendices providing respectively, charts of maximum recorded
wind gusts from tropical cyclones at selected locations, a proposal for a new
definition of the peak gust for AS/NZS1170.2, and a wind field model for Cyclone
Yasi.

This version of the report (June 2011) replaces the first edition (June 2008) and
incorporates developments and events of the last three years.

References

D.J. Abbs, S. Aryal, E. Campbell, J. McGregor, K. Nguyen, M. Palmer, T. Rafter, I.
Watterson and B. Bates (2006), Projections of extreme rainfall and cyclones, Report
to the Australian Greenhouse Office, CSIRO.

V.F. Dvorak (1984), Tropical cyclone intensity analysis using satellite data, NOAA
Technical Report NESDIS-11, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
Silver Spring, Maryland.

Standards Australia (2002), Structural design actions-Wind actions-Commentary.
(Supplement to AS/NZS 1170.2:2002).

Standards Australia (2011), Structural design actions. Part 2: Wind actions. AS/NZS
1170.2:2011.
9
2. History of cyclonic design wind speeds and the regional system in
AS/NZS1170.2

2.1 Whittinghams analyses

The first analysis of extreme gust wind speeds in Australia was carried out by
Whittingham (1964). This work included analysis of recorded annual maximum wind
gust data from a number of stations in tropical-cyclone-affected Northern Australia:
Broome (WA), Cairns (Qld.), Carnarvon (WA), Darwin (NT), Groote Eylandte (NT),
Karumba (Qld.), Onslow (WA), Port Hedland (WA), Rockhampton (Qld.), Townsville
(Qld.) and Willis Island (Qld). Whittingham carried out extreme value analyses for
each station and then drew contour maps for extremes at various return periods up
to 100 years; however he analyzed annual maximum gusts at each station
irrespective of their source, and did not specifically extract those produced by
tropical cyclones.

It is interesting to compare Whittinghams predictions, which were based on quite
short record lengths in most cases, with current values in AS/NZS1170.2:2011 for the
wind gust with an average recurrence interval of 100 years i.e. V
100
. This is done
in Table 2.1, in which Whttinghams values have been converted from knots to
metres per second. The values from AS/NZS1170.2 include the F
C
and F
D

uncertainty factors.

Table 2.1 Comparison of design gust wind speeds
Whittinghams values versus AS/NZS1170.2:2011

Station Whittingham
(1964)
V
100
(m/s)
AS/NZS1170.2:2011
V
100
(m/s)
Ratio
Broome, WA 50.4 58.8 1.17
Cairns, Qld 43.7 58.8 1.35
Carnarvon, Qld 65.8 72.6 1.10
Darwin, NT 55.0 58.8 1.07
Groote Eylandte, NT 48.4 58.8 1.21
Karumba, Qld 31.9 58.8 1.84
Onslow, WA 70.0 72.6 1.04
Port Hedland, WA 64.3 72.6 1.13
Rockhampton, Qld 48.4 58.8 1.21
Townsville, Qld 44.2 58.8 1.33
Willis Is., Qld
*
75.1 58.8 0.78
*
Willis Island has been assumed to be in Region C, although this is not explicit in
AS/NZS1170.2

10
The ratios of the values in the 2011 Standard to Whittinghams values for these
stations are shown in the extreme right column in Table 2.1. All these values except
one are greater than 1.0, in some cases significantly so. The exception is Willis
Island which is several hundred kilometres offshore from Queensland.

Part of the reason for the ratios being greater than 1.0 in Table 2.1 can be attributed
to the F
C
and F
D
uncertainty factors used in AS/NZS1170.2:2011. However the main
reason for the large differences from 1.0 is the fact that Whittingham attempted to
make predictions with so few years of maximum gusts; the maximum number
available to Whittingham for any station in Table 2.1 was 21, and in one case as few
as 7 years were available. It is significant that the V
100
values in several of the
stations were exceeded significantly within a few years of Whittinghams analyses
for example at Townsville during Cyclone Althea (1971), at Darwin during Cyclone
Tracy (1974), and at Karumba during Cyclone Ted (1976).

2.2 Development of cyclonic design wind speeds in the Australian Standard

2.2.1 1952 to 1973

The first loading standard in Australia was a simplified structural loading Standard,
known as SAA Interim 350 (1952). Part II of this document gave information on
wind loads. There was no zoning or contour map but a simple table with six
numbers gave advice on design wind speeds. For the coastline (definition not given)
north of Latitude 25
o
S, a value of 110 mph (49.2 m/s) was specified for all structures
up to 300 feet (91m) in flat country.

The first real stand-alone wind loading standard was CA34 Part II -1971 (Standards
Australia 1971). This contained a table of regional basic design wind velocities in
miles per hour for about fifty locations, including many on the cyclone-affected
coastlines and all except one of those in Table 2.1. Values were given for return
periods of 5, 25, 50 and 100 years, and were corrected to the standard height of 33
feet (10m) in flat open terrain (defined in the Standard as Terrain Category 2). It
also appears that a re-analysis of the annual maximum wind gusts was carried out,
using the extra data available since the work of Whittingham (1964), as the values
differ somewhat from those listed in Table 2.1.

A metric version of the Standard, AS 1170, Part 2-1973 (Standards Australia, 1973)
was published shortly after, with the same design wind speeds as in CA34, converted
to metres per second and rounded. Table 2.2 summarizes the values in both CA34
and AS 1170.2-1973 in comparison with the current values.

11
The ratios of the current (2011) values of V
100
to the 1971-3 in Table 2.2 are similar to
those in Table 2.1. Cyclone Althea had occurred in Townsville in late 1971, and
produced a maximum recorded gust of 55 m/s at Townsville Airport, but this had not
been included in the 1971 re-analysis, and hence in the values in the 1973 edition.
However the recorded value exceeded both V
50
and V
100
in both editions of the
Standard.
Table 2.2. Comparison of design gust wind speeds
CA34.2-1971 and AS1170.2-1973 versus AS/NZS1170.2:2002

Station AS1170.2-1973
V
100
(m/s)
AS/NZS1170.2:2011
V
100
(m/s)
Ratio
Broome, WA 48 58.8 1.23
Cairns, Qld 49 58.8 1.20
Carnarvon, Qld 49 72.6 1.48
Darwin, NT 53 58.8 1.11
Karumba, Qld 31 58.8 1.90
Onslow, WA 67 72.6 1.08
Port Hedland, WA 48 72.6 1.51
Rockhampton, Qld 53 58.8 1.11
Townsville, Qld 51 58.8 1.15
Willis Is., Qld

63 58.8 0.93


Both the 1971 and 1973 Standards had a contour map showing values of V
50
. That in
AS1170.2-1973 is shown in Figure 2.1. In AS1170.2-1973 these ranged up to 60 m/s
in the north of Western Australia, and near Willis Island off Queensland. In the
Northern Territory near Darwin, the value of V
50
reached 50 m/s.

Also in both the 1971 and 1973 Standards, a cyclone factor of 1.15 to be applied to
the V
50
wind speeds in an area up to 50 kilometres inland from the coastline north of
Latitude 27
o
S, was specified. This was regarded as an additional load factor for
cyclonic wind loads to reduce the risk of exceedence of the final design wind loads
on engineered buildings. Load factors are an important part of the specification of
design wind loads.

2.2.2 1975 to 1983

The occurrence of Cyclone Tracy in Darwin in 1974 produced an immediate reaction
in the wind loading Standard. Although the actual peak gust at Darwin Airport was
not recorded, it has been estimated to be about 70 m/s. This greatly exceeded the
value of V
100
of 53 m/s - the highest value shown in AS1170.2-1973.

12


Figure 2.1. Regional basic wind speeds V
50
(m/s) AS1170.2-1973


The response in AS1170.2-1975 was the specification of a single cyclonic strip within
50 kilometres of the smoothed coastline north of Latitude 27
o
S, with a value of V
50
of

55m/s. This value reduced by 5m/s over each of another two 10 kilometre strips
(Figure 2.2).

The map shown in Figure 2.2 was retained in the 1981 and 1983 editions of the
Standard. The Cyclone Factor of 1.15 was also retained in the 1975, 1981 and
1983 editions. Tabulated values at return periods of 5, 25, 50 and 100 years were
also given for all the stations shown in Table 2.2. For all the stations except Onslow
and Willis Island the value of V
100
was specified as 60 m/s. These locations retained
the same values given in AS1170.2-1973; thus for Onslow the value of V
100
was given
as 67 m/s, and for Willis Island 63 m/s was specified.

Table 2.3 shows the values of V
100
specified between 1975 and 1983 compared to
the present values. The ratios are now much closer to 1, with the exceptions being
Carnarvon and Port Hedland which are now rated much higher than previously
(together with Onslow they are now zoned in the higher Region D).

13

Figure 2.2. Regional basic wind speeds V
50
(m/s) AS1170.2-1975 to AS1170.2-1983



Table 2.3. Comparison of design gust wind speeds
AS1170.2-1975 to -1983 versus AS/NZS1170.2:2011

Station AS1170.2-1983
V
100
(m/s)
AS/NZS1170.2:2011
V
100
(m/s)
Ratio
Broome, WA 60 58.8 0.98
Cairns, Qld 60 58.8 0.98
Carnarvon, Qld 60 72.6 1.21
Darwin, NT 60 58.8 0.98
Karumba, Qld 60 58.8 0.98
Onslow, WA 67 72.6 1.08
Port Hedland, WA 60 72.6 1.21
Rockhampton, Qld 60 58.8 0.98
Townsville, Qld 60 58.8 0.98
Willis Is., Qld

63 58.8 0.93



14
2.2.2 1989 to present

New cyclonic regional boundaries were introduced in the 1989 edition of AS1170.2,
at the same time that contours were discontinued and a regional system introduced
for the whole of Australia (Figure 2.3). Also, with the introduction of limit states
design into Australian structural standards, separate wind speeds were designated
for ultimate and serviceability limit states. In the former case, an annual risk of
1/1000 was specified for V
u
(i.e. V
u
was V
1000
for all structures in current
terminology). The Cyclone Factor of 1.15 was discontinued, being effectively
incorporated in the values for V
u
given for the cyclonic regions C and D.

Regions C and D were essentially the same as those in the 2002 version and in the
current (2011) Standard. There was no extensive re-analysis of cyclonic wind speeds,
but the justifications for the values given were described by Holmes, Melbourne and
Walker (1990). Values of V
1000
of 70 m/s and 85 m/s were specified for Regions C
and D respectively and represent approximately the middle of the Category 4 and 5
ranges of the Australian tropical cyclone scale.

The only changes in the 2002 Standard (AS/NZS1170.2:2002) from the 1989 edition
were the additions of two small areas of Region B: firstly a strip between 100 and
150 kilometres from the coastline between 20
o
and 25
o
S near the Western
Australian coastline, and secondly east of 142
o
E and north of 11
o
S covering the
Torres Strait Islands. The regional map in the 2002 Standard is reproduced in Figure
2.4.

The regional wind speeds and regional boundaries in AS/NZS1170.2:2011 (Figure 2.5)
are unchanged from those in AS/NZS1170.2:2002. The only changes to Table 3.1 in
2011 are a number of additional average recurrence intervals, for which regional
wind speeds are given.

2.3 Summary and discussion

The changes in the cyclonic wind speeds and regional boundaries in the Australian
Standards since 1971 have come about from the realization that extreme value
analyses of recorded wind speeds in regions affected by tropical cyclones will give
large uncertainties when tropical cyclones only rarely occur, and only short records
of wind data are available in relation to the interval between direct strikes by
cyclones at a particular location. This reaction was primarily provoked by the
occurrence of Cyclone Tracy at Darwin in 1974 which produced maximum gusts
greatly exceeding those given in the Standard at the time for building design.
Specification of design wind speeds in cyclonic onwards from 1975 onwards was
15
mainly guided by computer-based simulation approaches (see Chapter 3), although
these have not been used greatly in Australia since the early 1980s.



Figure 2.3. Regional boundaries and basic wind speeds (m/s) AS1170.2-1989





Figure 2.4. Regional boundaries AS/NZS1170.2:2002
16



























Figure 2.5. Regional boundaries AS/NZS1170.2:2011


The introduction of limit states design in the 1980s focused on the need for
estimates of design wind speeds at high return periods of 500 to 1000 years these
represent risk of exceedence of 0.05 to 0.10 for typical buildings with design lives of
50 years.

It is noted that the Commentary to AS/NZS1170.2:2002 Standards Australia 2002)
stated: The Standard does not attempt to predict the effects of possible future
climatic changes, as the evidence for changes in wind speeds is inconclusive. As
noted in the Introduction to this report, this statement is now becoming
unsustainable as significant changes in wind speeds, due to climate change, are
predicted within the lifetime of buildings currently in the design or construction
phases.





17
References

J.D. Holmes, W.H. Melbourne and G.R.Walker, A commentary on the Australian
Standard for Wind Loads, Australian Wind Engineering Society, 1990.

Standards Association of Australia (1952), Minimum design loads on structures, SAA
Int. 350.

Standards Association of Australia (1971), SAA Loading Code. Part II Wind forces,
AS CA34, Part II - 1971.

Standards Association of Australia (1973), SAA Loading Code. Part 2 Wind forces,
AS 1170.2 - 1973.

Standards Association of Australia (1975), SAA Loading Code. Part 2 Wind forces,
AS 1170.2 - 1975.

Standards Association of Australia (1981), SAA Loading Code. Part 2 Wind forces,
AS 1170.2 - 1981.

Standards Association of Australia (1983), SAA Loading Code. Part 2 Wind forces,
AS 1170.2 - 1983.

Standards Association of Australia (1989), SAA Loading Code. Part 2 Wind loads, AS
1170.2 - 1989.

Standards Australia (2002a), Structural design actions. Part 2: Wind actions. AS/NZS
1170.2:2002.

Standards Australia (2002b), Structural design actions-Wind actions-Commentary.
(Supplement to AS/NZS 1170.2:2002).

Standards Australia (2011), Structural design actions. Part 2: Wind actions. AS/NZS
1170.2:2011.

H.E. Whittingham (1964), Extreme wind gusts in Australia, Bureau of Meteorology,
Bulletin No. 46.
18
3. Simulation methods for prediction of cyclonic wind speeds

3.1 Introduction

This chapter reviews probabilistic methods for prediction of extreme wind speeds
due to tropical cyclones. These methods have developed due to the shortcomings
of methods based on the analysis of historical recorded data on gust wind speeds
due to tropical cyclones from anemometer stations. The methods aim to make use
of all information available on the tropical cyclones in the vicinity of a site. Thus
track information, such as heading and translation speeds, as well as information on
central pressures and storm size, as indicated by the radius to maximum winds, are
used. This data is used with empirical wind field models to make predictions of
extreme wind speeds; the latter normally give upper level mean speeds (gradient
winds), and assumed factors to convert these to a gust wind speed near the surface
must be applied.

Methods described Vickery et al. (2000a, 2000b), have been used to directly develop
design wind speeds for hurricane regions of the United States in ASCE 7 (the
equivalent of AS/NZS1170 in Australia). These approaches are described in Section
3.3.

Some similar work by Harper (1999) for Australia is described in Section 3.4.

3.2 History of simulation approaches

3.2.1 Work in the United States

Vickery and Twisdale (1995a) describe the development of simulation methodologies
for the hurricane-prone coastline of the United States. The first of these was
implemented for the Texas coastline by Russell (1971). Shortly after Russell and
Schueller (1974), Tryggvason et al. (1976), Georgiou et al. (1983) and Twisdale and
Dunn (1983) used similar approaches for portions of the United States coastline.
Batts et al. (1980) were the first to apply the methodology to the entire U.S. eastern
and southern coastlines affected by hurricanes; these predictions were the basis for
the wind speed contours in ASCE 7-1988. Improved estimates were made by
Vickery and Twisdale (1995a, 1995b) and Vickery et al. (2000a, 2000b) and these are
the basis for the hurricane wind speed contours in the present American Loading
Standard ASCE 7-10 (ASCE, 2010).

In all the approaches, probability distributions are developed for the central pressure
difference (Ap), translation speed, c, and radius of maximum winds, R
max
, for
approaching hurricanes in the historical databases. Most of the approaches
19
mentioned above model hurricanes in a circular sub-region centred on the site of
interest. However, Batts et al. (1980) and Twisdale and Dunn (1983) used a coast
crossing technique to derive the basic probability distributions.

3.2.2 Work in Australia

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Australia was active in developing probabilistic
simulation methods for tropical cyclone wind speeds through the work of Gomes and
Vickery (1976), Martin and Bubb (1976) and Tryggvason (1979). Probably partly as
a result of criticism of the approach by Dorman (1984), and partly because of the
demise of publicly-funded research into wind loading generally, there was little work
of this type from the mid 1980s to the end of the 1990s.

However, more recently there has been an interest in such predictions from the
insurance industry. The work described by Harper (1999) is an example of this; the
latter work is discussed in Section 3.4.

Simulation methods have also been used in Australia for storm surge and wave
prediction e.g. James and Mason (1999), and unpublished commercial studies by
Global Environmental Modelling Systems Pty. Ltd. (http://www.gems-aus.com/).

3.3 Methods by Vickery et al. (1995-2000)

The methodology used by Vickery and Twisdale (1995a) for predictions for the U.S.
coastline is as follows. The statistical distributions of central pressure difference,
Ap, translation velocity of the hurricane, c, angle of approach, u, and the minimum
distance of the centre of the hurricane from the site, d
min
, are derived from data
obtained from the National Climatic Data Center of the U.S. These distributions are
site-specific and vary significantly with location along the coastline.

Using site-specific probability distributions of Ap, c, u and d
min
, in conjuction with a
wind-field model, thousands of hurricanes were simulated. The distributions used
for Ap, c, u and d
min
were Weibull, Lognormal, Bi-Normal and uniform, respectively.
The wind-field model used was that of Shapiro (1983). Each simulated hurricane
was assumed to travel along a straight line path throughout the simulation region
defined using the sampled values of d
min
and u. The sampled value of Ap was held
constant up to landfall, after which it was reduced using the filling model described
by Vickery and Twisdale (1995b).

The radius of maximum wind, R
max
, was assumed to have some correlation with the
central pressure difference for storms south of 30
o
N, and in the case of northern
20
storms, with the latitude. R
max
was modeled with a lognormal distribution, with the
mean value a function of central pressure difference or latitude.

Using the above methodology, Vickery and Twisdale (1995a) made predictions of 50,
1000 and 2000-year return period fastest mile wind speeds at 30 coastal and 16
inland locations. These differed significantly for many stations from the earlier
predictions of Batts et al. (1980) this was attributed mainly to the use of the
Shapiro windfield model and a new filling model (Vickery and Twisdale 1995b).

As well as a number of sensitivity studies, Vickery and Twisdale (1995a) compared
area and point exceedence probabilities thus for a single point in the Miami area a
fastest mile wind speed of 65m/s was associated with a return period of about 300
years. However, the return period of this wind speed for anywhere in Dade County,
Florida, is only about 100 years.

The Shapiro wind field model described by Vickery and Twisdale (1995b) consisted of
numerical solutions to the vertically integrated equations in coordinates moving with
the hurricane. An imposed pressure distribution for the vortex was used.
Comparisons with measurements in five hurricanes were favourable and
considerably better agreement was shown than for the wind field model of Batts et
al. (1980). The filling model used by Vickery and Twisdale (1995b) was an earlier
version of that described by Vickery (2005) and discussed in Section 5.4 of this
report.

A new technique for modelling hurricane wind risk in the United States was
described by Vickery et al. (2000a). A storm track modelling approach was adopted
in which the entire track of a hurricane as it crosses the ocean and makes landfall
was modelled. The advantage of this approach over the circular region approach
used previously resulted from not having to assume uniform climatology over the
subregion. Using the empirical storm track modelling approach, storm intensities
change with time and storms change both direction and speed as they pass by a site.
This is more realistic compared to earlier methods. This new technique, together
with the new wind field model described by Vickery et al. (2000b), was used as the
basis for the revised wind speed contours for the hurricane coastlines in ASCE 7-02,
ASCE 7-05 and ASCE 7-10. The wind field model showed excellent agreement with
recorded mean and gust time histories for numerous locations in several hurricanes.

The work described by Vickery et al. has been very well documented and uses
soundly based wind field and filling models, and is calibrated with the
comprehensive data set of measurements available in the United States from both
aircraft flights and surface measurements. However, the predictions for wind
21
speeds in the future are still dependent on the characteristics of past hurricanes
being representative of those in the future. At present future climate change effects
are not included.

3.4 Work by Harper (1999)

Harper (1999) describes a similar numerical simulation approach to the prediction of
wind speeds due to tropical cyclones in Australia, and of insurance losses in a city
from a single event. There is little detail given of the methodology used in terms of
the probability distributions used for relevant parameters etc, except that apparently
a circular sub-region approach (see Section 3.2.1) with a radius of 500 kilometres
was used. However, examples are given of predicted wind speeds for Cairns,
Townsville, Mackay and Brisbane in Queensland. This apparently used cyclone track
information from 1959 onwards. Reasonable agreement of the simulated
predictions with those from the recorded gusts due to tropical cyclones for these
locations was found, although the latter may not, in themselves, be representative of
the long-term climate.

3.5 Work by Geoscience Australia

Geoscience Australia has recently developed a deterministic-probabilistic Tropical
Cyclone Risk Model for wind speeds (Arthur et al. 2008a). It has been calibrated
against Cyclone Tracy (Arthur et al., 2008b).

The model has recently been combined with climate model simulations by CSIRO and
the University of Melbourne, in a collaborative project (Lavender et al., 2011) that
has been reviewed in Section 8.6.

3.6 Summary and conclusions

This Chapter has outlined the development in probabilistic simulation methods for
prediction of wind speeds from hurricanes or tropical cyclones. This method has
been used extensively in the United States where the results are used directly for
design wind speed specification in ASCE 7 - the equivalent of AS/NZS1170.2.

Australia suffers from a lack of aircraft flights into tropical cyclones leading to an
inaccurate cyclone database, and also a lack of surface measurements required for
calibration of wind field and filling models. This means the potential accuracy of
probabilistic simulation models could not be expected to match that in the U.S.

22
Recently these simulation methods have been integrated with larger scale climate
modelling (in Australia and elsewhere), incorporating climate change effects.
Discussion of these methods as used in Australia is given in Chapter 8.

References

American Society of Civil Engineers (2010), Minimum design loads for buildings and
other structures, ASCE Standard ASCE/SEI 7-10.

W.C. Arthur, A. Schofield, R. P. Cechet and L. A. Sanabria (2008a), Return period
cyclonic wind hazard in the Australian Region. 28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes
and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April - 2 May 2008, Orlando, FL, USA.

W. C. Arthur, A. Schofield and R. Cechet (2008b), Severe wind hazard assessment of
Cyclone Tracy using a parametric tropical cyclone model, 15
th
National Australian
Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) Conference, Geelong, January
29-February 1, 2008.

M.E. Batts, M.R. Cordes, L.R. Russell, J.R. Shaver and E. Simiu (1980), Hurricane
windspeeds in the United States, Report No. BSS-124, National Bureau of Standards,
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Washington D.C.

C.M.L. Dorman (1984), Tropical cyclone wind speeds in Australia, Civil Engineering
Transactions, Institution of Engineers, Australia, Vol.26, pp 132-139.

L. Gomes and B.J. Vickery (1976), Tropical cyclone gust speeds along the north
Australian coast, Civil Engineering Transactions, Institution of Engineers, Australia,
Vol.18, pp 40-48.

B.A. Harper (1999), Numerical modelling of extreme tropical cyclone winds, Journal
of Wind Engineering & Industrial Aerodynamics, Vol.83, pp 35-47.

M. James and L.B. Mason (1999), Generation of a synthetic tropical cyclone. In
Coasts and Ports 99. Institution of Engineers Australia. pp 407-412.

S.L. Lavender, K.J.E. Walsh, D.J. Abbs, M. Thatcher, W.C. Arthur and R.P. Cechet
(2011), Regional climate tropical cyclone hazard for infrastructure adaption to
climate change, Final Report, June 2011.

G.S. Martin and C.T.J. Bubb (1976), Discussion of Tropical cyclone wind speeds
along the North Australian coast, Civil Engineering Transactions, Institution of
Engineers, Australia, Vol.18, pp 48-49.

L.R. Russell (1971), Probability distributions for hurricane effects, Journal of
Waterways, Harbors and Coastal Engineering, ASCE, Vol.97, pp 139-154.

23
L.R. Russell and G.F. Schueller (1974), Probabilistic models for Texas Gulf Coast
hurricane occurrences, Journal of Petroleum Technology, pp 279-288.

L.J. Shapiro (1983), The asymmetric boundary layer flow under a translating
hurricane, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, Vol.40, pp 1984-1998.

B.V. Tryggvason, D. Surry and A.G. Davenport (1976), Predicting wind-induced
response in hurricane zones, Journal of Structural Division, ASCE, Vol.102, pp 2333-
2350.

B.V. Tryggvason (1979), Computer simulation of tropical cyclone wind effects for
Australia, James Cook University, Wind Engineering Report 2/79, April.

L.A. Twisdale and W.L. Dunn (1983), Extreme wind risk analysis of the Indian Point
Nuclear Generation Station, Final Rep. 44T-2491, Research Triangle Institute, North
Carolina, U.S.A.

P.J. Vickery (2005), Simple empirical models for estimating the increase in central
pressure of tropical cyclones after landfall along the coastline of the United States,
Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 44, pp 1807-1826.

P.J. Vickery and L.A. Twisdale (1995a), Prediction of hurricane wind speeds in the
United States, J. Struct.Engg.,Vol.121, pp 1691-1699.

P.J. Vickery and L.A. Twisdale (1995b), Wind-field and filling models for hurricane
wind-speed predictions, J. Struct.Engg.,Vol.121, pp 1700-1709.

P.J. Vickery, P.F. Skerlj, A.C. Steckley and L.A. Twisdale (2000a), Hurricane wind field
model for use in hurricane simulations, J. Struct.Engg.,Vol.126, pp 1203-1221.

P.J. Vickery, P.F. Skerlj, and L.A. Twisdale (2000b), Simulation of hurricane risk in the
U.S. using empirical track model, J. Struct.Engg.,Vol.126, pp 1222-1227.
24
4. Vertical profiles in tropical cyclones and hurricanes

4.1 Introduction

The Australian Standard specifies a Regional wind speed as a 3-second gust at a
height of 10 metres in open country terrain (Terrain Category 2). For buildings of
greater or lesser height than 10 metres, or located in a different terrain type, this
wind speed must be adjusted. This is accomplished by the Terrain-height
Multiplier, M
z,Cat
. Currently in the Standard a different set of Terrain-height
Multipliers is specified for Tropical Cyclone Regions C and D in Table 4.1(B) of the
Standard.

Clearly the values specified for these multipliers in the Standard for buildings that
are not close to 10m in height are very significant in determination of the wind loads
in tropical cyclone regions. The ratio between upper level (gradient) winds and
surface level winds is also important when simulation methods are used to predict
wind speeds due to tropical cyclones (Chapter 3).

In the following reviews are given of the original tower measurements at N.W. Cape
that were the basis of the gust profiles (M
z,Cat
)

used in AS/NZS1170.2, and of the
recent dropwindsonde measurements that have been carried out in Atlantic
hurricanes.

4.2 Tower measurements at NW Cape by Wilson

Some of the few available tower measurements of vertical wind profiles in tropical
cyclone, hurricane or typhoon, were made by Wilson (1979a, 1979b) at the North-
West Cape near Exmouth in Western Australia. Observations were made from
anemometers mounted on guyed tower at heights of 60m, 191m, 279m and 390m
(with anemometers operating at all heights only during one cyclone). Another
anemometer was mounted at 9m height on a pole about 350m away from the main
tower. The fetch was open water with only a short land fetch of less than 5
kilometres for a large range of wind directions from NW through N to S.

In a period of four and half years the anemometers were able to record velocities
from four tropical cyclones during the nineteen-seventies: Beryl (1973), Trixie
(1975), Beverley (1975) and Karen (1977). The highest 10-minute wind speed at
the top anemometer was about 57 m/s during Cyclone Beverley.

A significant feature of several of the profiles recorded was the high values of wind
speed recorded on the 60 metre anemometer compared to those at both the 9m
and 191m heights. The surface roughness lengths for the open water fetch and for
25
the land surrounding the tower were estimated to be similar in magnitude (1 to 3
mm corresponding to Terrain Category 1 in AS/NZS1170.2), and it was concluded
that the inner boundary layer resulting from the water to land transition had little
effect on the measured wind profiles. This appeared to be confirmed by the
measurements which showed little variation with the changing land-water fetch of
different wind azimuths.

However the shear (i.e. the difference in wind speeds) between 9 and 60m was
significantly underestimated by the logarithmic law with a roughness length of 1-3
mm. It would have to be concluded that the boundary layer wind flow was not in
equilibrium with the underlying terrain, or was not neutrally stable.

In the absence of other comparable tower measurements in tropical cyclones,
hurricanes and typhoons, profiles of M
z, Cat
,

based on the NW Cape measurements,
were incorporated into the 1989 edition of the Australian Standard on Wind Actions
(AS1170.2-1989) for both Regions C and D, and the gust profile was continued
without modification in the 2002 edition.

Figure 4.1 shows the average maximum gust profiles derived from the 10-minute
mean windspeeds and gust factors obtained for the four recorded cyclones at NW
Cape. The profile in the Standard is assumed to increase monotonically up to 100m
and above that height takes a constant value of 1.40 for all Terrain Categories. The
Standard is conservative with respect to the averaged measurements above 100 m.
However, these profiles need reviewing in the light of the more recent
dropwindsonde measurements in U.S. hurricanes described in the following section.

Mz cat comparisons
0
100
200
300
400
500
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
Mz,Cat1
H
e
i
g
h
t

(
m
)
Avg. measured -
NW Cape
AS/NZS1170.2

Figure 4.1 Comparison of average measured maximum gust profiles for four
cyclones (1973-7) at North-west Cape and M
z,Cat 1
from AS/NZS1170.2:2011

26
4.3 Dropwindsonde measurements

The dropwindsonde (Figure 4.2) is a probe containing sensors and a GPS satellite
receiver that enables profiles of various atmospheric variables, including wind speed,
to be monitored as it falls, after being dropped from an aircraft.

Since 1997 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the
U.S. Air Force have been deploying GPS-based dropwindsondes into hurricanes in the
Atlantic and eastern North Pacific oceans. These have generated vertical profiles of
wind and thermodynamic parameters from flight level (typically about 3000 metres)
down to sea level. It should be noted that dropwindsondes are not normally
deployed over land.

The development of the dropwindsonde has been described by Hock and Franklin
(1999). Detailed analyses of wind profiles from 1997-1999 have been described by
Franklin et al. (2003); the main purpose was to obtain a ratio between surface (10
metres) and flight level wind speeds for forecasting purposes. Wind profiles were
averaged separately for the eyewalls of hurricanes, and for the outer vortex regions.

Powell et al. (2003) analyzed similar data and fitted logarithmic profiles for various
speed ranges. In contradiction to previous extrapolations for wind over the ocean,
they found that the surface drag coefficient and roughness length did not continue
to increase beyond U
10
equal to 30 m/s, in fact, the roughness length decreased from
about 3 mm to 1mm between 33 and 50 m/s.



Figure 4.2 Schematic of a dropwindsonde probe
27


4.3.1 Nature of dropwindsonde profiles

The horizontal wind speed is determined from the position of the sonde sampled
every 0.5 seconds, and assumes that the sonde is travelling at the wind speed.
However, corrections are made based on the horizontal and vertical accelerations as
described by Hock and Franklin (1999).

Since the probes translate circumferentially through the hurricane, as well as fall
vertically, the individual dropwindsonde profiles reflect the larger scale turbulent
eddies. Smaller scale turbulence as would be observed by a high-response
anemometer on a fixed mast, is not included due to the sampling interval, the
response of the probe and its movement in following the eddies. However,
ensemble averaging of many individual normalized profiles, as undertaken by
Franklin et al. and Powell et al., will give expected mean vertical velocity profiles of
horizontal velocity.

There is some debate about the validity of the corrections to the profiles when the
probe horizontal speed is different to the wind speed for example as the sonde
falls it will tend to have a higher wind speed associated with a greater height.
However, the corrections are already quite small, and improvements to the
correction method will be unlikely to significantly change the profiles, and have
negligible effect on the ensemble-averaged mean profiles. (It is noted that due to
the vertical falling motion, the relative wind speed to the sonde will normally be
vertical and parallel to the cylinder axis. A relative horizontal wind speed will deflect
the total wind vector, but the cylinder will then tend to align itself with the new wind
vector direction).

4.3.2 Results from dropwindsonde profiles in hurricanes

From a engineering design point of view, the analysis of Powell et al. and Franklin et
al. has produced the following significant results :

- A logarithmic law for the mean wind speed appears to hold in the eyewall
region for heights above the surface up to about 300 metres. Above that
height, the rate of increase is much smaller with a maximum mean velocity at
about 500 metres. Above 500 metres, the velocity falls significantly in the
eyewall region.
- For mean velocities at 10 metres height above water surface of about 33 m/s,
the roughness length reaches a maximum value of about 3 mm, falling to 1
mm for velocities of 50 m/s (Powell et al. 2003).
28

Franklin et al. (1999) gives velocity ratios, U
z
/U
10
for the eyewall region. These
values are reproduced in Table 4.1, and compared with a logarithmic law with z
0

equal to 0.0001 m (0.1 mm).

Although there is an apparent discrepancy between the roughness lengths quoted by
Powell et al., and implied by Franklin et al. (i.e. a factor of 10), in both cases, the
values are significantly lower than those currently used for design of buildings for
off-water winds from hurricanes or tropical cyclones.

Since dropwindsondes are only deployed over the ocean, there are no profiles
available for wind over land from hurricanes, as required for the design of most
structures. It also should be noted that the dropwindsonde profiles do not give any
useful information on turbulence intensities, and hence on peak gust envelope
profiles as used in many design codes or standards, (such as ASCE 7 or
AS/NZS1170.2). However, it would not be expected that the latter would differ
significantly from the mean velocity profiles, (and may have an even lower slope.)

Table 4.1. Mean velocity profile in the hurricane eyewall from Franklin et al. (2003)
(compared with a logarithmic law with z
0
= 0.1 mm)

Height (m) U
z
/U
10
log
e
(z/0.0001)/log
e
(10/0.0001)
10 1.000 1.000
15 1.027 1.035
20 1.048 1.060
30 1.081 1.095
50 1.128 1.140
75 1.169 1.175
100 1.198 1.200
150 1.229 1.235
200 1.261 1.260
250 1.288 1.280
300 1.305 1.295


4.3.3 Recent results from Doppler radar profilers

Some recent measurements from both dropwindsondes and Doppler radar profilers
have been described by Giammanco et al. (2011). The radar measurements from
weather radar (WSR-88D) operated by the U.S. National Weather Service were
carried specifically to obtain vertical wind velocity profiles in landfalling hurricanes,
since profiles from dropwindsondes are only available over the ocean. However, the
29
lowest height for which Doppler radar measurements could be obtained was about
35 metres.

The results described by Giammanco et al. for off-land winds indicated that the
higher roughness of the wind blowing over land had significant effect on the mean
velocity profiles indicating a significantly higher roughness length than for over-
water winds. The average power law exponent up to 400 metres height was found
to be about 0.18. The ratio of wind speed at 100 m height to that at 35m was about
1.20. This ratio is greater than the ratio of 1.14 obtained from Table 4.1(B) in
AS/NZS1170.2:2011 (i.e. 1.40/1.225). However, the radar method measures wind
speed averaged over a volume considerably larger than that for the maximum gust in
the Standard.

4.4 Summary and discussion

The Australia/New Zealand Standard AS/NZS1170.2, since 1989, has had a gust
profile for cyclonic regions based on measured tropical cyclone data from the late
1970s and early 1980s from the NW Cape mast near Exmouth Western Australia,
described in Section 4.2. These showed a sharp increase in wind speed from the
lowest anemometer (9 m height) to 60 metres, and then relatively uniform wind
speeds to the highest anemometer on the mast. Although above 100m, the
measured profiles from the NW Cape and the dropwindsonde profiles are near-
uniform, the high shear below 100m is not seen by the dropwindsondes, as
discussed in Section 4.3. It is probable that the lowest (9m) anemometer reading
from the NW Cape mast was heavily influenced by the inner boundary layer as the
surface changed from water to land, although this possibility was discounted at the
time of the measurements (Wilson, 1979b).

The Australian Standard also assumes increasing roughness length with increasing
wind speed over water this has been shown to be an incorrect assumption over 30
m/s in hurricanes by the dropwindsonde data.


References

J. L. Franklin, M.L. Black and K. Valde (2003), GPS dropwindsonde wind profiles in
hurricanes and their operational implications, Weather and Forecasting, Vol.18,
pp32-34.

I.M. Giammanco, J.L. Schroeder and M.D. Powell (2011), Observed characteristics of
tropical cyclone vertical wind profiles, accepted for publication in Wind and
Structures.

30
T.F. Hock and J.L. Franklin (1999), The NCAR GPS dropwindsonde, Bull. Amer. Met.
Soc., Vol. 80, pp 407-420.

M.D. Powell, P.J. Vickery and T.A. Reinhold (2003), Reduced drag coefficient for high
wind speeds in tropical cyclones, Nature, Vol. 422, pp 279-283, 20 March 2003.

K.J. Wilson (1979a), Wind observations from an instrumented tower during Tropical
Cyclone Karen, 1977, 12
th
Technical Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical
Meteorology, New Orleans, April 1979.

K.J. Wilson (1979b), Characteristics of the subcloud layer wind structure in tropical
cyclones, International Conference on Tropical Cyclones, Perth, W.A., November
1979.

31
5. Inland weakening and penetration of tropical cyclones

5.1 Introduction

As the high convection regions of a tropical cyclone cross a coastline from a warm
ocean, the storm loses its source of energy and starts to weaken. There is also a
reduction due to surface friction for winds blowing over land. These effects results
in maximum wind speeds falling progressively with distance from the coastline. This
is reflected in AS/NZS1170.2 by 50 kilometre-wide strips that designate the wind
regions in the Standard. At present, the width of these strips is the same on the
Western Australian coastline as on the more topographically complex east
(Queensland) coast. The validity of this has been questioned and will be addressed
in this report.

This chapter reviews recent studies of the inland penetration of tropical cyclones and
hurricanes, with consideration of the relevance to the current regional zoning
system.

The current Standard defines the regional strips with respect to the smoothed
coastline without defining it. A recommendation in Chapter 11 of this report
addresses this point and attempts to establish a workable definition.

5.2 Observations in Cyclone George (2007)

Boughton and Falck (2007) have surveyed the available information on wind gusts,
for up to 120 kilometres inland, from Tropical Cyclone George which crossed the
Pilbara coast of Western Australia east of Port Hedland in March 2007.
Unfortunately for this event, there was a lack of anemometer data, and few simple
road signs, that have been used in past cyclones as an indicator of upper and lower
limits of wind gust speeds, were available. Hence Boughton and Falck used tree
damage and damage to vehicles, buildings and masts at isolated mining camps to
establish wind speeds at various distances from the coastline. The authors claim,
optimistically, accuracy of +/- 10% for estimates of gust wind speeds made from tree
damage and of +/-5% for predictions made from structures and vehicles.

Maximum gust speeds at Port Hedland on the coast were estimated at 55m/s from
the failure of road signs. However the township was located 60 to 70km west of the
storm track and outside of the eye wall of the cyclone. Tree damage in Port
Hedland was subsequently used to calibrate observed damage at other parts of the
track.

32
Estimates of 200 to 270 km/hour (55 to 75 m/s) at locations along the storm track
about 50 kilometres from the coast were made, but these are quite wide limits, and
it is difficult to judge the weakening of the storm without also having wind speeds at
landfall.

Calculations from the failure of the top of a radio mast at Strelley about 50 km inland
along the track gave a peak gust of 64 to 78 m/s. However, the authors apparently
did not consider possible resonant vibrations of this slender structure which would
have amplified the stresses. Ignoring this possibility may have resulted in
overestimates of the peak gusts.

A road-sign failure near the eye wall about 90 kilometres along the track after
landfall, but about 50 kilometres from the coastline indicated a lower bound of 55
m/s and a probable maximum gust of 60 m/s. This observation is significant, as
although this location is in Region C in AS/NZS1170.2, it would have been in Region B
had the cyclone travelled at right angles to the coastline. For Region B, V
500
is 57
m/s, less than the probable maximum gust in this event.

A lower limit of 50 m/s was obtained for the FMG Rail Camp based on overturning of
a piling rig and a toilet block, although the values assumed for force and pressure
coefficients were not stated. This site is about 90 km from the smoothed coastline,
but about 140 km from landfall along the track of the cyclone. This wind speed
exceeds estimates made independently, based on the movement and overturning of
buildings within the camp.

Boughton and Falck stated that without the current F
C
and F
D
factors in AS/NZS, their
estimated maximum gust wind speeds would have been exceeded in Cyclone
George based on distances measured along the cyclone track from landfall, but this
was not the case for the actual regional location of the sites based on the shortest
distance from the smoothed coastline, for which the current Standard appeared to
be quite adequate.

5.3 Studies by Kaplan and DeMaria (1995, 2001)

Kaplan and DeMaria (1995, 2001) developed a simple empirical model for predicting
the decay of tropical cyclone winds after landfall. This work was done primarily for
evacuation and emergency management application.

The model is based on a least squares fit to the maximum sustained (1-minute)
surface wind estimates made by the National Hurricane Center to land-falling
33
tropical storm and hurricanes in the United States. The equation for maximum
sustained wind as a function of time takes the form.

t
b b
e V RV V t V
o
+ = ) ( ) (
0
(5.1)

where V
b
is a background wind speed
V
0
is the maximum wind speed just before landfall
R is a reduction factor to account for the immediate effect of surface
roughness immediately on landfall
o is a decay parameter

For storms making landfall closer to the Equator than 37
o
, Kaplan and DeMaria
established values for V
b
, o and R of 26.7 knots, 0.095 hour
-1
and 0.9, respectively.
For storms land-falling on the Atlantic coast north of 37
o
N the values obtained were:
V
b
= 29.6 knots, o = 0.187 hour
-1
and R = 0.9.

5.4 Studies by Vickery (2005)

For application to hurricane simulation models, Vickery (2005) studied the decay of
the central pressure rather than wind speed, after landfall. An exponential decay
function of the form of Equation (5.2) was used.


at
e p t p

A = A
0
) ( (5.2)

where Ap(t) is the difference between the central pressure and the far field
atmospheric pressure at time t after landfall, Ap
0
is the pressure difference at the
time of landfall, and a is a filling constant.

The filling constant, a, was modeled as:

|
.
|

\
| A
+ =
RMW
c p
a a a
.
0
1 0
(5.3)

where c is the translation speed of the storm at the time of landfall, and RMW is the
radius to maximum winds.

The characteristics of up to 57 storms which made landfall were studied and grouped
according to the sections of the U.S. coastline where they made landfall. Best fits to
the observed decay of central pressure for up to 36 hours after landfall were made
using Equation (5.3). For example, for the Florida Peninsula, the following
expression fitted the data with a correlation coefficient (r
2
) of 0.84.

34
|
.
|

\
| A
+ =
RMW
c p
a
.
00167 . 0 0225 . 0
0
(5.4)

5.5 Application to decay with distance, and widths of regional boundaries

The results of Kaplan and Maria, as summarized in Section 5.3, are intended be used
to predict the decay of wind speeds tropical cyclones with respect to time after
landfall. However, they can be converted to the decay rate with distance from the
coastline by multiplying by an average or representative storm translation speed.
Based on these decay rates, appropriate regional boundary widths may also be
determined.

Equation (5.1) can be modified in terms of decay with distance instead of time, as
follows:


x
b b
e V RV V x V
|
+ = ) ( ) (
0

( )w
b b
e V RV V w V
u | cos /
0
) ( ) (

+ =
(5.5)

where | is a decay constant based on the distance inland x
w is the shortest distance from the smoothed coastline equal to x cos u
u is the angle of the cyclone track from the normal to the smoothed coastline

| can be estimated from the decay constant of Kaplan and Maria as follows:

av
c
o
| =
(5.6)
where c
av
is an average translation speed of the storm.

An average value of the angle to the normal can be calculated as follows:
( )
}
+

= |
.
|

\
|
=
2 /
2 /
2
cos
1
cos
t
t
t
u u
t
u d
av
(5.7)
Hence substituting in Equation (5.5),
( )
av
c w
b b
e V RV V w V
2 /
0
) ( ) (
to
+ =
(5.8)

Then the values found by Kaplan and DeMaria for V
b
and o were applied, and
average values used for storm translation speed from Vickery (2005) of 6.2 m/s and
10.6 m/s for storms in the United States less than and greater than 37
o
latitude,
respectively. R was taken as 0.9 and V
0
as 70 m/s. A factor of 1.3 was used to
convert the 1-minute maximum sustained wind speeds to the maximum gust used
in the Australian Standard.

35
The curves given by Equation (5.8), using parameters found by Kaplan and DeMaria
for U.S. hurricanes, for latitudes less than and greater than 37
o
, are plotted in Figures
5.1 and 5.2 respectively, and compared with the step changes resulting from the
regional boundaries in AS/NZS1170.2 between 20
o
S

and 25
o
S in Western Australia.
The differences in the decay rates for the hurricanes north of 37
o
N in the U.S.
(including the more topographically complex New England region) and those south
of 37
o
S are small. However, it is noted that decay rates with time are higher for the
northern storms (Kaplan and DeMaria, 2001), but that the average translation
speeds are also higher (Vickery, 2005); these effects tend to compensate and give a
similar rate of decay with distance after landfall as the southern storms.

Figures 5.1 and 5.2 indicate that the current boundaries in AS/NZS1170.2 are
conservative with respect to the average decays found in the U.S. hurricanes, and
appear to be quite satisfactory. However, the lines shown from the U.S. hurricanes
are averages, and individual hurricanes will, of course indicate faster or slower
decays.

5.6 Data from Cyclone Yasi

A limited amount of data to check the inland weakening of an Australian cyclone is
available from the wind field of Cyclone Yasi, which made landfall in North
Queensland in early February 2011 (Boughton et al., 2011, and Appendix C). Using
wind gust estimations from failed road signs, the ratios of the estimated upper and
lower limits of gusts from Tully (approximately 17 kilometres inland), Jarra Creek (27
kilometres inland) and Munro Plains (33 kilometres inland) were compared with the
average of the upper and lower limits obtained from South Mission Beach, near the
point of landfall of Cyclone Yasi.

These values are plotted in Figure 5.3 and compared with the Kaplan and DeMaria
line (Eqn. 5.8), for latitudes less than 37
o
. A downward arrow on Figure 5.3 indicates
an upper limit, derived from a non-failed road sign, whereas an upward arrow
indicates a lower limit estimated from a failed road sign.

The agreement between the Cyclone Yasi values and the U.S. data in Figure 5.3 is
quite good. The upper and lower limits for Tully are above the line, but this can
probably be attributed to local topographic effects for north and south winds at that
location.

5.7 Summary

Research from the United States on the decay in wind speeds in hurricanes after
landfall indicates that the current regional boundaries are generally conservative
36
with respect to the average decay of both low latitude (less than 37
o
) and high
latitude (greater than 37
o
) storms. However to account for cyclones that decay less
faster than the average, the current boundaries appear to be adequate.

The difference in decay rate with distance for the more northerly storms in the U.S.
with topographically complex terrain after landfall, is little different to those in the
south which cross the coast at the flat coastline of Florida, Louisiana and Texas.
Hence, there is currently little evidence to differentiate the current regional
boundaries between Queensland and Western Australia, as some have suggested.
However, an analysis of the Australian tropical cyclone database (Section 1.2) could
be usefully carried out to determine whether there is a significant difference in the
decay rates between the Queensland and Western Australian coastlines.















Figure 5.1. Decay in gust wind speed for U.S. hurricanes south of 37
o
N compared to
the Australian Standard















0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0 50 100 150 200
D
e
c
a
y
Normal distance from coastline (km)
Decay in windspeed
<37deg
AS1170.2:2011
(WA)
37















Figure 5.2. Decay in gust wind speed for U.S. hurricanes north of 37
o
N compared to
the Australian Standard





Figure 5.3. Decay in gust wind speed for U.S. hurricanes south of 37
o
N compared to
measurements from Cyclone Yasi.

0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0 50 100 150 200
D
e
c
a
y
Normal distance from coastline (km)
Decay in windspeed
>37deg
AS1170.2:2011
(WA)
38
References

G.N. Boughton and D. Falck (2007), Tropical Cyclone George Wind penetration
inland, Cyclone Testing Station, James Cook University, Technical Report No.53,
August 2007.

G.N. Boughton, D.J. Henderson, J.D. Ginger, J.D. Holmes, G.R. Walker, C.L. Leitch, L.R.
Somerville, U. Frye, N.C. Jayasinghe and P.Y. Kim (2011), Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Structural damage to buildings, Cyclone Testing Station, James Cook University,
Technical Report No.57, March 2011.

J. Kaplan and M. DeMaria (1995), A simple empirical model for predicting the decay
of tropical cyclone winds after landfall, Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 34, pp
2499-2512.

J. Kaplan and M. DeMaria (2001), On the decay of tropical cyclone winds after
landfall in the New England area, Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 40, pp 280-
286.

P.J. Vickery (2005), Simple empirical models for estimating the increase in central
pressure of tropical cyclones after landfall along the coastline of the United States,
Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 44, pp 1807-1826.

39
6. Observed effects of climate change on tropical cyclones worldwide

6.1 Introduction

Recent international literature concerning observed trends in global tropical cyclone
activity and correlation with increasing sea surface temperature is reviewed in the
following. In Section 6.6 consensus statements by expert groups are reproduced in
an endeavour to give a balanced view of opinions on this topic.

6.2 Interpretations by Webster et al. (2005)

Webster et al. (2005) conducted a comprehensive analysis of global tropical cyclone
statistics for the satellite era (1970-2004) in each tropical ocean basin in which they
occur. They found significant increasing trends in sea surface temperature (SST) in
each of the ocean basins except for the South Pacific. Since it is well established
that a SST of 26
0
C is required for tropical cyclone formation in the current climate, it
might be expected that there would be an increase in the number of tropical
cyclones. However there was no significant trend in global cyclones of all strengths.
Some studies have suggested that the 26
0
C threshold may increase in a warmer
climate (J. Kepert personal communication).

The North Atlantic region did show a statistically significant increase since 1995 in
tropical cyclones of hurricane strength (defined by Webster et al. as having wind
speeds greater than 33 m/s). However an attribution of the increase to increasing
SST is not supported because of the lack of correlation of the number of tropical
cyclones of this strength in other basins.

When Webster et al. examined the number of hurricanes by allocated category
(using the Saffir-Simpson scale), they found a significant increasing trend in the
numbers of Category 4-5 storms, and found that the numbers of these strongest
storms increased from about 50 globally per 5-year period in the 1970s to nearly 90
per five-year period in the decade 1995-2004 (see Figure 6.1). This conclusion has
been controversial and is further discussed in the following. Also as seen in Figure
1 there was no trend from the 1990-1994 period to the 2000-2004 period (as
pointed out by Klotzbach, 2006).

40



Figure 6.1 Apparent increase in number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes world-wide
(from Webster et al., 2005)


6.3 Interpretations by Emanuel (2005)

Emanuels interpretations of the effects of increasing sea surface temperatures were
expressed in terms of a power dissipation index (PDI) defined as follows.

}
=
t
0
3
max
dt V PDI

where V
max
is the maximum sustained wind speed at 10 metres height, and t is the
lifetime of a storm.

On the assumption that the economic loss in windstorms varies as the cube of the
wind speed, the PDI is assumed to represent the destructiveness of a tropical
cyclone.

Emanuel summed the PDIs over all storms in each calendar year for the North
Atlantic and North-west Pacific Basins, and found significant increases from about
1990 and 1980 respectively. Significant apparent correlations with changing sea
surface temperatures were found. However, thermodynamic considerations would
indicate only a 6-9% increase in PDI for the 0.5
o
C observed increase in sea surface
temperature, whereas the observed changes in PDI, with about a 50% increase,
greatly exceeded this range in both basins. Emanuel therefore concluded that only
part of the observed apparent increase in PDI can be attributed to increased sea
surface temperatures.



41
6.4 Interpretations by Klotzbach (2006)

Klotzbach (2006) extended the analysis to all basins with tropical cyclone activity,
and excluded data before 1986 on the basis that, before the mid 1980s, only visible
satellite information was available and hence night-time observations were
excluded; also the quality and resolution of satellite imagery had improved greatly by
the later period.

Klotzbach used an Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (ACE) as an indicator of
trends. The ACE is similar to the PDI but incorporates the square instead of the
cube of the maximum surface wind speeds.

Only in the North Atlantic Basin was a significant increasing trend in ACE found. In
fact, decreasing trends were found in the Northeast, Northwest and Southwest
Pacific Basins. Klotzbachs analysis, using the more recent (and more reliable) data,
found only a small increase in Category 4-5 hurricanes in the North Atlantic and
Northwest Pacific during the 20-year study period. Klotzbachs findings were stated
to be ..contradictory to those of Emanuel (2005) and Webster et al. (2005).

6.5 Interpretations by Kossin et al. (2007)

To eliminate the variability in global hurricane intensity records due to
improvements in satellite technology, Kossin et al. (2007) constructed a more
homogeneous data by first constructing a consistently analyzed satellite database for
1983 to 2005, and then applying a new objective algorithm to form hurricane
intensity estimates.

Although an increasing trend in PDI, and frequency and percentage of strongest
storms was found for the North Atlantic in agreement with Emanuel (2005) and
Webster et al. (2005), this was not the case for any other basin. In the South Indian
Ocean (including tropical cyclones affecting the WA coastline), no significant trends
were found in the reanalyzed homogeneous data set; in the South Pacific, a
decreasing trend was observed for the period 1983-2005 (Figure 6.2).

The combined global records re-analyzed by Kossin et al. showed no consistent long-
term trend in PDI, number of Category 4-5 storms or in the percentage of strongest
storms. This was in contradiction to conclusions by Webster et al. (2005) and
Emanuel (2005).



42


Figure 6.2 Trend in PDI for Southern Indian Ocean (left) and South Pacific Ocean
(right). Red lines from uncorrected database; blue lines from corrected
homogeneous database (from Kossin et al., 2007)


6.6 Consensus statements by IPCC and IWTC

The following statements from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and
an expert group at the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, summarize
consensus expert scientific opinion on the possible global impact of climate change,
particularly sea surface temperature increases on tropical cyclones.

IPCC (2001)
... there is some evidence that regional frequencies of tropical cyclones may change
but none that their locations may change. There is also evidence that the peak
intensity may change by 5% to 10% ....


IWTC (2006)
The scientific debate is not as to whether global warming can cause a trend in
tropical cyclone intensities. The more relevant question is how large a trend: a
relatively small one decades into the future or large changes occurring today.
Currently published theory and numerical modeling results suggest the former, which
is inconsistent with the observational studies of Webster et al. (2005) by a factor of
5 . (McBride et al., 2006).


IPCC (2007)
There is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in
the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases in sea surface
temperatures. There are also suggestions of increased intense tropical cyclone
activity in some other regions where concerns over data quality are greater. There
is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones.


43


6.7 Recent developments (2008-2011)

Studies have continued in the last three years to attempt to identify trends in the
number and intensities of tropical cyclones for all parts of the world where they
occur. Recent work has been summarized by the international Working Group on
Tropical-cyclone activity on climate time scales (Knutson et al., 2010). However,
before commenting on the studies, the Group noted: Data homogeneity issues
continue to be a concern in studies of past trends and low-frequency variability of
tropical cyclones.

Elsner and Jagger (2010) studied the increasing intensity of Atlantic hurricanes over
the period 1943 to 2008, and found the upward trend correlated with increasing sea-
surface temperature. They found larger increases over the Gulf of Mexico and
Caribbean Sea, where sea temperatures are highest.

Recent studies for the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans are discussed in
Sections 7.4 and 7.5.


6.8 Summary and Conclusions

There has been some speculation that the frequency of severe tropical cyclones
world-wide has already been increasing as a result of global warming. This view was
promoted by two well-known publications in 2005. In 2011, there remains a view
held by some that hurricanes in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico have been
increasing in intensity as a result of rising sea-surface temperatures. This view is not
shared universally, however.

The main problem appears to be observational errors, in both the numbers of
tropical cyclones observed and their intensity, prior to about 1980. Before the
advent of regular satellite observations in about 1970, many storms that did not
cross a coastline were not observed or not recorded. It is only since 1980 that
satellite observations have been regular enough and of sufficient quality to produce
reasonable and consistent estimates of storm strengths. Currently it is only storms
in the North Atlantic and North-West Pacific basins, that the strengths of hurricanes
and typhoons are being regularly observed by means of aircraft penetration flights.
In other parts of the world where frequent tropical cyclones occur, a technique
based on a qualitative interpretation of satellite images has been used. This may
have resulted in some mis-classification of tropical cyclones.

44
There is also the possibility that the observed trends in the north Atlantic since 1970
have been caused by a multi-decadal natural cycle (personal communication J.
Kepert, Bureau of Meteorology)

References

J.B. Elsner and T.H. Jagger (2010), On the increasing intensity of the strongest
Atlantic hurricanes, in Hurricanes and Climate Change, Vol. 2, Springer.

K. Emanuel (2005), Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past
thirty years, Nature, Vol. 436, pp686-688.

P.J. Webster, G.J. Holland, J.A. Curry and H.R. Chang (2005), Changes in tropical
cyclone number, duration and intensity in a warming environment, Science, Vol. 309,
pp1844-1846.

CSIRO (2007). Climate change in Australia. Technical Report. CSIRO.

P.J. Klotzbach (2006), Trends in global tropical cyclone activity in the last twenty
years (1986-2005), Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, L10805.

T.R. Knutson and 12 others (2010). Report of Working Group on TC activity on
climate time scales, Seventh International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, Reunion
Island, November 15-20, 2010.

J.P. Kossin, K.R. Knapp, D.J. Vimont, R.J. Murnane, B.A. Harper (2007), A globally
consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends, Geophysical Research
Letters, Vol. 34, L04815.

J. McBride, J. Kepert, J. Chen, J. Heming, G. Holland, K. Emanuel, T. Knutson, H.
Willoughby and C. Landsea (2006), Statement on tropical cyclones and climate
change, 6
th
WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VI), Costa
Rica, November.


45
7. Observed trends in tropical cyclone activity in the Australian Region

7.1 Introduction

This chapter reviews trends in tropical cyclonic activity in the Australian Region
during the last thirty years, and possible explanations.

7.2 Observations by Nicholls et al. (1998)

A review of cyclonic activity in Australia from 1969/70 to 1995/6 was given by
Nicholls et al. (1998). A downward trend in the total number of tropical cyclones
observed in the Australian Region was observed. However, there was a slight
upward trend in the number of intense cyclones, defined as those with a central
pressure of 970hPa or less, as shown in Figure 7.1.

Nicholls et al. noted that at least part of the downward trend in overall cyclone
numbers can be explained by changes in the way storms are classified as cyclones.
For example Cyclone Wanda in 1974 had a central pressure of 1000 hPa, and would
not have been classified as a cyclone in later years. This has an effect on the trend
in the number of cyclones with central pressures higher than 990 hPa, but negligible
effect on stronger ones.

The downward trend in overall numbers was primarily explained by the negative
trend in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) otherwise known as the El Nino
phenomenon over the time period in question. The SOI is the difference in mean
sea level atmospheric pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, standardized to a mean
of zero and standard deviation of 10, and low values are associated with droughts in
Australia, as well as fewer tropical cyclones. No explanation was given for the
increase in more intense cyclones, although an increase is also predicted by climate
models for the east coast of Australia as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas
concentrations (see Section 8.4).

7.3 Study by Ramsay et al. (2008)

A detailed study Ramsay et al. (2008) provided evidence that the sea surface
temperature in the east and central Pacific Ocean is the main contributing factor to
cyclonic activity in the Australian Region. In fact, the average sea surface
temperature in North Australian waters is only weakly correlated with tropical
cyclone activity near Australia. Cyclone numbers are also affected by the
monsoonal trough and by vertical shear in the atmosphere.

46


Figure 7.1 Trend in number of cyclones with central pressures of 970 hPa or less in
the Australian Region during 1969-96 (from Nicholls et al., 1998).

Thus warming of the central Pacific Ocean (coinciding with El Nino conditions) is
unfavourable for tropical cyclone generation in the Australian Region. The
connection between sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean and
conditions in the Australian Region are illustrated in Figure 7.2. Thus it is possible
that increased ocean temperatures outside of the Australian Region, produced by
greenhouse effects, may result in fewer tropical cyclones affecting Australia.

However, Ramsay et al. note that the numbers of severe tropical cyclones (with
central pressure less than 965 hPa) are much less influenced by El Nino conditions,
and explain the more frequent occurrence of severe cyclones off north-west of
Western Australia compared to the East coast, by this.


Figure 7.2. Schematic showing warmer sea surface temperatures in the central
Pacific Ocean, associated with the El Nino phenomenon, and conditions associated
with reduced cyclone activity in the Australian Region (from Ramsay et al., 2008)
47
7.4 Study by Kuleshov et al. (2008, 2010)

Kuleshov et al. studied tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere between
1981/2 and 2005/6, and its dependence on the El Nino Southern Oscillation
phenomenon. As observed previously by others, they found that fewer tropical
cyclones occurred in both the South Pacific and South Indian Oceans during El Nino
than during La Nina years. On average 25 and 29 tropical cyclones occurred in El
Nino and La Nina years respectively in the Southern Hemisphere. Kuleshov et al.
also found that an area of cyclogenesis located between 60
o
E and 85
o
E in El Nino
years in the Indian Ocean shifted eastwards (i.e. closer to Australia) in La Nina years.
In contrast, the focus for cyclogenesis in the South Pacific shifted eastwards (away
from Australia) in El Nino years. These two effects explain the predominance of
tropical cyclones in the Australian Region during La Nina years. The decline in total
number of tropical cyclones affecting Australia in recent years can be explained by
the fewer La Nina events compared with El Nino periods.

As shown in Figure 7.3, taken from their paper, Kuleshov et al. (2008) identified
statistically significant increasing trends in severe tropical cyclones, defined as those
with a central pressure less than 945 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), southern
Indian Ocean (SIO), and in the South Pacific Ocean (SPO). This observation confirms
the earlier one by Nicholls et al. (Figure 7.1), and is also consistent with predictions
of the effect of CO
2
induced global warming discussed in the next chapter.


Figure 7.3 Occurrences of tropical cyclones with central pressures of 945 hPa or less
in the Southern Hemisphere between 1981/2 and 2005/6 (from Kuleshov et al.,
2008).

The above conclusions have recently been reinforced by Kuleshov et al. (2010);
however they qualified the observations of long-term trends, due to differences and
uncertainties in the data quality over the time of the record.


48
7.5 Study by Goebbert and Leslie (2010)

Goebbert and Leslie (2010) examined the tropical cyclone variability of the
northwest Australian sub-basin (035S, 105135E), using a dataset for the 39-
year period of 19702008. The major findings were that for that sub-basin, there
are 5.6 tropical cyclones and 42.4 tropical-cyclone days on average, with standard
deviations of 2.3 storms and 20.0 days. For intense cyclones (Category 3 and higher),
the annual mean frequency is 3.0, with a standard deviation of 1.6, and the annual
average intense tropical-cyclone days is 7.6 days. However, they found no
significant linear trends in either mean annual frequencies of tropical cyclones or
tropical-cyclone days over the 39-year period. The factors influencing the
development of tropical cyclones are less dependent upon standard El Nio
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variables than many other basins, including the rest of
the Australian region.

7.6 Summary and conclusions

Studies of tropical cyclone activity in the Coral Sea have found that the numbers of
tropical cyclones are negatively affected by the Southern-Oscillation Index El Nino
phenomenon. Fewer cyclones occur when higher sea surface temperatures occur in
the central and east Pacific Ocean. However the more intense cyclones (i.e. those
of interest for structural design) are much less influenced by the El Nino
phenomenon, and there is evidence of increasing trends in the stronger (Category 3-
5) events during the last 30-40 years. However, these conclusions should be re-
visited in the future to ensure that no fictitious increase in intensity has occurred in
the tropical cyclone database (Section 1.2) due to changes in interpretation of
satellite data over the years (see also Section 6.5).

Development of tropical cyclones in the southern Indian Ocean, however, are less
affected by the El NioSouthern Oscillation, and no clear trend in the annual
number of tropical cyclones affecting the northern coastline of Western Australia
since 1970 has been identified.

To the extent that global warming will affect the sea surface temperature in the east
and central Pacific and hence the El Nino-La Nina phenomena, it may be expected
that there will be changes to the number and intensities of cyclones in the Australian
Region. Recent predictions are discussed in the following chapter.

References

K.H. Goebbert and L.M. Leslie (2010), Interannual variability of northwest Australian
tropical cyclones, Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, pp 4538-4555.
49

Y. Kuleshov, L. Qi, R. Fawcett and D. Jones (2008), On tropical cyclone activity in the
Southern Hemisphere: trends and the ENSO connection, Geophysical Research
Letters, Vol. 35, L14S08.

Y. Kuleshov, R. Fawcett, L. Qi, B. Trewin, D. Jones, J. McBride and H. Ramsay (2010),
Trends in tropical cyclones in the South Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean, J.
Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, D01101.

N. Nicholls, C. Landsea and J. Gill (1998), Recent trends in Australian Region tropical
cyclone activity, Meteorological and Atmospheric Physics, Vol. 65, pp 197-205.

H.A. Ramsay, L.M. Leslie, P.J. Lamb, M.B. Richman and M. Leplastrier (2008),
Interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the Australian Region: Role of large-
scale environment, Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, pp 1083-1103.

50
8. Predicted future effects of climate change on tropical cyclones

8.1 Introduction

A number of simulation studies have been carried out in recent years to try to
determine the effects of enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations on the
occurrence and intensities of tropical cyclones in the Australian region. These are
based on Global Climate (computer) Models (GCM), derived from Numerical
Weather Prediction Models developed for weather forecasting purposes. The
smallest grid size used in the studies reviewed here is 14 kilometres. This, of course,
is insufficient to resolve tropical cyclones (with eye diameters of the order of 50
kilometres) in detail, and the conclusions of these studies must be taken as
preliminary.

These studies have identified tropical-cyclone like vortices in the output of GCM
models, and drawn conclusions about actual cyclones in the real world. The
advantage of such studies is that enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations in the
upper atmosphere can be simulated.

A recent approach to improve the resolution of the models is downscaling i.e. the
outputs of the coarser resolution GCMs are used as inputs to Regional Climate
Models (RCMs) of finer resolution.

Regarding the general state-of-the art for simulation of future changes in tropical
storms by GCMs and regional climate models (RCMs), the international Working
Group on Tropical-cyclone activity on climate scales state that .there is a large
overall uncertainty in future changes in tropical cyclone frequency as projected by
climate models forced with future greenhouse gases.it is likely that the global
frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged
due to greenhouse warming. In addition, recent climate model studies consistently
project a decrease in formation rates averaged over the Southern Hemisphere.
(Knutson et al., 2010)

In the highest resolution GCM study to date, with a 14 kilometre grid, Yamada et al.
(2010) found a 40% reduction in tropical storms globally for a late 21
st
Century
climate change scenario. However this model also predicted an increase in the
number and intensity of the most intense storms. For example, the minimum
central pressure for the most intense storm decreased from 902 hPa under the
current climate, to 871 hPa under the warmer climate.



51
8.2 Simulations by Walsh et al. (2000-11)

Walsh and Ryan (2000), using a RCM (125km resolution nesting to 30 km) of the
Australian region, inserted idealized tropical cyclones and examined their intensity
evolution under current and enhanced CO
2
concentrations. Small increases in
intensity were observed for example after 2 days, the average central pressure
reduced from about 970 hPa to 965 hPa. However the error bars representing the
standard deviations of the observed changes exceeded the predicted changes.

Walsh et al. (2004) used 30-kilometre horizontal resolution climate models to
simulate the 1967-96 climate, and with a climate with enhanced (3) carbon dioxide
concentrations in the upper atmosphere. Under the enhanced greenhouse
conditions the numbers of tropical cyclones formed and their region of formation do
not change much. However there was a 26% increase in the number of storms with
central pressures less than 970 hPa, and an increase in the number of intense storms
occurring south of 30
o
S latitude. There was no discussion of any change in the
number coast crossings of the eastern Australian coast, however.

Lavender and Walsh (2011) summarize recent downscaled fine-resolution
simulations by CSIRO and the University of Melbourne. Using three different
simulation models, and projected increases in sea-surface temperatures, they found
an average 30% reduction in the total number of cyclones occurring in the Australian
Region i.e. from an annual rate of 12.5 to about 9. However, as in previous studies,
they also found a poleward shift in both the genesis and dissipation of tropical
cyclones potentially threatening more populated areas of Queensland, for
example. In addition they project a slight increase in the numbers of most severe
storms. The latter seems to be a common prediction by Global Climate Models for
all basins worldwide, as discussed in Section 8.1.

8.3 Simulations by Abbs et al. (2006)

Simulations by Abbs et al. (2006) covered the Indian Ocean off north-west of
Western Australia, and the Timor Sea region, as well as the Coral Sea off the
Queensland coast. These simulations indicated a significant reduction in the
number of cyclones off Western Australia, little change off the Northern Territory
coast, but some increase off the North Queensland coast by 2070. Increases in
storm strength for the most severe storms were found by this model.

8.4 Simulations by Leslie et al. (2007)

The study described by Leslie et al. (2007) was funded by the Insurance Australia
Group (IAG), but was limited by a relatively coarse grid spacing of 50 kilometres.
52

The model was used to simulate the climate in the south-west Pacific Ocean in a
control period of 1970-2000. The authors found a favourable agreement between
the tropical-cyclone-like vortices in the simulated outputs from the GCM model and
the observed cyclones, with respect to the number of tropical cyclones in various
intensity categories, lifetime of storm, monthly distribution, and distribution with
latitude.

The model was then applied to the 2000-2050 period with both current and
enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations. No significant change was found in the
total tropical cyclone numbers in the south-west Pacific during 2000-2050.
However, there was a marked increase (about 22%) in the number of Category 3-5
storms in response to increasing greenhouse gases. A southerly shift of over 2
degrees of latitude in the tropical-cyclone genesis region was found.

The paper concluded that there is a potential for tropical cyclones to develop during
the next fifty years that are more intense that any so far recorded in the south-west
Pacific, including super cyclones with central pressures below 900hPa. The latter
would produce extreme winds considerably in excess of those specified for building
design for any return period up to 2000 years along the Queensland coast (Regions B
and C in AS/NZS 1170.2).

8.5 Research at Geoscience Australia

Geoscience Australia undertook a study for the Garnaut Review of the future impacts
of tropical cyclones in the Australian region under a range of climate change
scenarios. The Garnaut Climate Change Review was an independent study by
Professor Ross Garnaut, which was commissioned by the Commonwealth, State and
Territory Governments. The Review examined the impacts of climate change on the
Australian economy, and recommended medium to long-term policies and policy
frameworks to improve the prospects for sustainable prosperity.

The impact of climate change on tropical cyclone risk for the states of Queensland,
and Western Australia, and also the Northern Territory, was examined utilizing
global climate models available from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. The model output was used to estimate
the influence of climate change on tropical cyclone activity following the technique
described in Vecchi and Soden (2007). The current generation of models lacks the
horizontal resolution necessary to resolve the intense inner core of tropical cyclones
so a thermodynamic approach aimed at identifying changes in large-scale
environmental factors (that are known to affect cyclone development/strength) is
53
employed. The maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a tropical cyclone was utilised
to determine changes in intensity. The MPI sets a theoretical upper limit for the
distribution of tropical cyclone intensity at a given point, given a vertical
temperature and humidity profile (Holland, 1997; Emanuel, 1999). A range of
climate change scenarios have been employed to assess the wind and storm surge
hazard and risk compared to current climate levels. The overall trend in MPI for the
climate change simulations is one of increased levels across northern Australia,
resulting in higher maximum wind speeds and elevated storm surge levels. This work
was reported in September 2008, and updated in March 2011, and is published on
the Garnaut Review website http://www.garnautreview.org.au/.

Geoscience Australia was also contracted by the Federal Department of Climate
Change to conduct a similar study to that Knutson et al. (2008) in the Australian
region. The regional modelling was undertaken by K. Emanuel (MIT) utilising the
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report simulations. A tropical-cyclone climatology (cyclone
tracks with associated intensity information) was produced for each IPCC model
simulation considered. The climatology is utilized by the Geoscience Australia
Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TRCM) (Arthur et al., 2008; Arthur, 2010) through the
synthetic track generation module which can be seeded with either historical data or
alternatively the tracks of tropical cyclone-like vortices (TCLVs) extracted from
climate simulations. In this way, and utilizing a statistical sampling process (Monte-
Carlo simulation), the model can rapidly increase the catalogue of TC events under
future climate regimes.

Finally, Geoscience Australia has recently collaborated with CSIRO Marine and
Atmospheric Research and University of Melbourne on a study of the effects of
climate change on wind speeds with high return periods in Australia. This study is
summarized in the following section.

8.6 Collaborative study of tropical cyclone wind risk in Australia

A collaborative study was carried out in 2008-2011 to make practical
recommendations on the changes to extreme wind speeds in Australia as a result of
various climate change scenarios (Lavender et al., 2011). The future climate was
simulated using a range of global climate models to drive a regional climate model
of high resolution. This part of the work was summarized by Lavender and Walsh
(2011), and has already been discussed in Section 8.2. The results from all the
models predicted decreases of up to 30% in total numbers of tropical cyclones in
the Australian Region by the end of the 21
st
Century. In addition, the percentage of
very intense storms is predicted to increase. An average poleward (southerly) shift
54
in tropical cyclone occurrences of between 1 and 3 degrees of latitude is also
predicted.

The climate model projections were then used to produce spatial and intensity
distributions which in turn were used to generate thousands of simulated cyclones
with the same characteristics and hence values of V
500
as used for most structures in
AS/NZS1170.2. Synthetic tracks of tropical cyclones were generated used an
autoregressive model similar to that proposed by Hall and Jewison (2007). The
wind-field model of Powell et al. (2005) and the boundary-layer model of Kepert
(2001) were adopted to generate gust wind speeds, which were then fitted with a
generalized extreme-value distribution. An important component of the modeling
carried out in this work was that all the simulations were calibrated with observed
cyclone occurrences and wind speeds in the current climate prior to making
projections about future changes.

The report states that 3-second gust speeds were generated, but it is not clear if
these were 3-second moving-average gusts, or the somewhat higher (and shorter
duration) gusts used in AS/NZS1170.2 (see Appendix B).

An interesting aspect of the results in this report is that existing differences
between the current Regions C and D in AS/NZS1170.2 would be further enhanced
in future climate scenarios.

8.7 Summary

By comparing and calibrating the simulations with the historical record of tropical
cyclone occurrences in number and intensity over the last 30 years or so, reasonable
predictions of events in a warmer climate may be made for the Australian region.
Only one of the studies to date has included the Indian Ocean basin off the north-
west of Western Australia, and the Timor Sea region, near Darwin, but there have
been several studies of the south-west Pacific and Coral Sea regions off Queensland.

In relation to the SW Pacific simulations, some consensus has emerged, with the
following general conclusions:

- The overall number of tropical cyclones in the SW Pacific is expected to
decrease by up to 30% in a warmer climate.
- There is expected to be an increase in the number and frequency of the
strongest storms in the next fifty years i.e. in the Category 3 to 5 storms
that are interest in structural design of buildings and other structures.
- It is predicted that a southward shift of 1-3
0
in the genesis region and track
locations will occur in the next 90 years.
55

The quality of these predictions is subject to the current resolution of the prediction
models, although these appear to have improved in recent years. However, the
increased resolution has tended to reinforce the above trends that were originally
identified in studies with coarser resolution, and the predicted trends for the
Australian region are similar to those predicted for other parts of the world. It is
expected that the resolution and hence the quality of the predictions will improve
further over the next few years.

The collaborative modelling of CSIRO, Geoscience Australia and the University of
Melbourne has considerable potential as a tool to refine estimates of design wind
speeds in Australia, as global climate model simulations improve in the future with
greater resolution.

References

D.J. Abbs, S. Aryal, E. Campbell, J. McGregor, K. Nguyen, M. Palmer, T. Rafter, I.
Watterson and B. Bates (2006), Projections of extreme rainfall and cyclones, Report
to the Australian Greenhouse Office, CSIRO.

W.C. Arthur (2010), Projected changes in cyclonic wind hazard in the Australian
Region. 29th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 10 - 14 May
2010, Tucson, Arizona, USA.

W.C. Arthur, A. Schofield, R. P. Cechet and L. A. Sanabria (2008), Return period
cyclonic wind hazard in the Australian Region. 28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes
and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April - 2 May 2008, Orlando, Florida, USA.

K.A. Emanuel (1999), Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity, Nature, Vol.401,
pp665-669.

T.M. Hall and S. Jewson (2007), Statistical modelling of North Atlantic tropical
cyclone tracks, Tellus A, Vol. 59, pp 486-498.

G.J. Holland (1997), The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones, Journal of
Atmospheric Sciences, Vol.54, pp 2519-2541.

J. D. Kepert (2001), The dynamics of boundary layer jets within the tropical cyclone
core. Part 1: Linear theory, J. Atmos. Sciences, Vol.58, pp 2469-2484.

T.R. Knutson, J. J. Sirutis, S. T. Garner, G. A. Vecchi, and I. M. Held (2008), Simulated
reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming
conditions, Nature Geoscience, Vol.1, pp 359-364.

56
T.R. Knutson and 12 others (2010). Report of Working Group on TC activity on
climate time scales, Seventh International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, Reunion
Island, November 15-20, 2010.

S.L. Lavender and K.J.E. Walsh (2011), Dynamically downscaled simulations of
Australian region tropical cyclones in current and future climates, Geophysical
Research Letters, Vol.38, L10705.

S.L. Lavender, K.J.E. Walsh, D.J. Abbs, M. Thatcher, W.C. Arthur and R.P. Cechet
(2011), Regional climate tropical cyclone hazard for infrastructure adaption to
climate change, Final Report, June 2011.

L.M. Leslie, D.J. Karoly, M. Leplastrier, and B.W. Buckley (2007), Variability of
tropical cyclones over the Southwest Pacific Ocean using a high-resolution climate
model, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Vol. 97, pp 171-180.

K.C. Nguyen and K.J.E. Walsh (2001), Interannual and decadal and transient
greenhouse simulation of tropical cyclone-like vortices in a regional climate model of
the South Pacific, Journal of Climate, Vol.14, pp 3043-3054.

M. Powell, G. Soukup, S. Cocke, S. Gulati, N. Morisseau-Leroy, S. Hamid, N. Dorst and
L. Axe (2005), State of Florida hurricane loss projection model: atmospheric science
component, Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, Vol. 93, pp
651-674.

G.A. Vecchi, and B. J. Soden, (2007), Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model
projections of global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.34, L08702.

K.J.E. Walsh and J.J. Katzfey (2000), The impact of climate change on the poleward
movement of tropical-cyclone like vortices in a regional climate model, Journal of
Climate, Vol. 13, pp 1116-1132.

K.J.E. Walsh and B.F. Ryan (2000), Tropical cyclone intensity increase near Australia
as a result of climate change, Journal of Climate, Vol. 13, pp 3029-3036.

K.J.E. Walsh, K.C. Nguyen and J.L. McGregor (2004), Finer-resolution regional climate
model simulations of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones near
Australia, Climate Dynamics, Vol. 22, pp 47-56.

Y. Yamada, K. Oouchi, M. Satoh, H. Tomita and W. Yanase, (2010), Projections of
changes in tropical cyclone activity and cloud height due to global warming,
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.37, L07709.
57


9. Observations and projections for the Northern Territory

9.1 Introduction

This chapter reviews some studies by individuals and groups for cyclonic wind speeds
in Darwin and the Northern Territory. Comments are made about the appropriate
zoning of Darwin and other parts of the Northern Territory.

9.2 Reports by M. Nicholls

A community Group for the Review of NT Cyclone Risks was formed in 2005 and
received a grant from Emergency Management Australia in 2006 to study cyclone
risks in the Northern Territory. Mike Nicholls was the Secretary of the Group and
also the subcontractor for most of the work. The work was completed in early 2007
and a web site (www.cyclone.org.au) contains the report of the work consisting of a
main report and fifteen lengthy Appendices (Nicholls et al., 2007).

A two-page summary of the report was supplied to Sub-Committee BD006-02 of
Standards Australia in August 2007. The following comments relate primarily to that
summary.

The findings of the report were summarized as follows (with wording only slightly
altered):

a) Three of the most intense cyclones that have been observed in Australian waters
since satellite observations began in 1960 (Thelma 1998, Ingrid 2005 and Monica
2006) all came within 350 km of Darwin when they were at maximum intensity and
within a nine-year period.

b) These TIM cyclones may have been the result of global warming, or they may
signal the return of a more active period similar to one that appears to have existed
in the first 90 years of (European) NT settlement.

c) NT buildings should probably be designed for wind loads that are at least 60%
higher than the minimum loads permitted under the current AS/NZS1170.2.


a) is generally not disputed, although the exact strength of the three storms at
landfall is subject to speculation. All three were rated Category 5 at some point in
their lives by the Bureau of Meteorology, but they did not retain maximum strength
throughout their lifecycle.

58
Figure 9.1 (compiled by Dr. J. Kepert of the Bureau of Meteorology) shows estimated
(using the Dvorak imaging technique) values of the 10-minute mean wind speeds for
Cyclones Thelma, Ingrid and Monica at various points along the tracks, together
with a circle of radius 350 km centred at Darwin. The large changes in intensity over
relatively short distances during their life-cycle can be noted from this Figure.









































Figure 9.1. Tracks of Cyclones Thelma, Ingrid and Monica, showing estimated
10-minute mean wind speeds in knots at 10 metres height, and a circle of 350km
radius, centred at Darwin, (source: Dr. J. Kepert, Bureau of Meteorology)
59


b) The first 90 years of European settlement produced a number of severe
cyclones but without the benefit of modern satellites and ground-based
instrumentation it is difficult to be categorical about their intensities. It is possible
that the intensity of TIM cyclones was related to global warming.

c) This conclusion is justified by some ball-park probabilistic estimates. These are
discussed in the following.

Estimates of the exceedence probability for given wind speeds in Darwin are stated
to be the product of the probabilities of three independent events:

a) the time probability of a cyclone having at least that gust speed occurring in any
one year (within 350 kilometres in Darwin),
b) the spatial probability of the region of maximum winds of the cyclone
enveloping a building site,
c) an intensity probability that the cyclone will maintain its intensity all the way to
Darwin (this probability was assumed have a value of 0.5).

Based on this approach, and the occurrence of the TIM cyclones in a 9-year period,
the Nicholls group derives a relationship between wind gust speed and average
recurrence interval (return period) which approximates Region D in AS/NZS1170.2.
Darwin is currently located in Region C in the Standard.

The methodology is, in fact, a simplified version of the probabilistic simulation
approaches described in Chapter 3. A similar approximate approach is used for the
Queensland coast in Section 10.4 of the present report. It is a valid approach, in
principle, but has many shortcomings in its implementation in the case of the NT
group. Some of these are as follows.

- Estimated (from satellite images using the Dvorak method) gust wind
speeds at 10 metres given in the Bureau of Meteorology database have
been used, instead of using reported surface values of wind speed (see
further discussion in the next section). The need to use validated surface
data, instead of estimated values, was very clear in the case of Cyclone
Yasi, in Chapter 10.
- No wind field model (such as the well-established Holland (1980) model)
has been adopted.
- In the case of the Cyclone Monica, most of the 350 kilometres between
Darwin and the centre of the cyclones was over land, not water (see Figure
9.1).
- The spatial of geometric probability (b) should be based on area, not
radius, as used by Cook and Nicholls. That is the probability of intersection
60
of a point (building site) with the footprint area of maximum winds is
required.
- The intensity factor of (c) is very over simplified. As discussed in Chapter
5, the weakening in intensity depends on the distance travelled by a storm
over land (see Chapter 5). Thus this factor would be very different for a
storm approaching Darwin overland compared to those approaching from
the sea.

The method does not take account of the preferred tracks of cyclones affecting the
Northern Territory coastline. In fact Thelma and Ingrid followed a generally east
to west track along the NT coast and were all well north of Darwin. As shown in
Section 9.5 the observed gust wind speeds at Darwin from Thelma and Ingrid were
all quite low. Monica (2006) also produced quite a low gust at Darwin.

9.3 Report by Cook

G.D. Cook (2007), in an unpublished manuscript, made predictions of wind gust
speed as a function of return period for three coastal locations in the Northern
Territory: Darwin, Maningrida and Nhulunbuy. These appear to have been made
partly on historical experience based on the cyclone database of the Bureau of
Meteorology, and partly using a simulated database generated by a U.S. group,
WindRiskTech. Cook concluded that the cyclone risk to Northern Territory stations
are better described by the Region D line AS/NZS1170.2 rather than that for Region
C. Surprisingly given the cyclones of recent years (i.e. the TIM cyclones), Cook
found Darwin to have a slightly higher risk than Maningrida and Nhulunbuy.

Cook makes the valid points that the Arafura Sea has shallower depths and warmer
temperatures than the North-West Shelf (WA) and Coral Sea (Queensland). Also
quoting references based on data from Atlantic hurricanes, wind fields are more
peaked with smaller radii of maximum winds in lower latitudes, so that maximum
gust speeds will be higher for a given central pressure differential. These factors
need to be included in simulation models to predict tropical cyclone wind speeds for
the Northern Territory.

In the introduction to his paper, Cook gives estimated maximum gust speeds of 87,
91 and 99 m/s for Cyclones Thelma, Ingrid and Monica. These values are derived
from those in the Bureau of Meteorology database, which gives estimates of
sustained wind speeds at 10 metres height, indirectly made using satellite images,
and some reported surface readings. The reported surface values (i.e. measured at
surface level) in the database are significantly lower than those used by Cook.

61
The probabilistic method used by Cook to predict wind speed is similar to that used
by Nicholls as described in the previous section; the associated criticisms of this
approach given above are valid.

9.4 Papers in Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Since the first (2008) version of this report was published, a paper by Cook and
Nicholls (2009) has been published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and
Climatology of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Following the earlier
work described in this chapter, this paper applied three approaches to assess the
cyclone risk for Darwin, and concluded that the risk at Darwin for high return periods
was greater than that at both Townsville and Port Hedland.

The methods Cook and Nicholls used for this paper to assess the cyclone risk were as
follows:

a) An analysis of simulated synthetic cyclone tracks by WindRisk Tech of Boston
U.S.A.
b) An analysis of the qualitative historical record of intense storms passing
within 50 kilometres of Darwin, Townsville and Port Hedland since European
settlement, and,
c) An analysis of the record of intense storms in the Cyclones database of the
Bureau of Meteorology passing within 350 kilometres of each of the three
locations since 1985.

Subsequent to the publication of the paper by Cook and Nicholls, a discussion paper
(Harper et al., 2010) has been submitted to the AMS commenting on the Cook and
Nicholls (2009) paper in detail. The latter paper found serious flaws in the
arguments of Cook and Nicholls. Specifically Harper et al. found that:

i) Cook and Nicholls made an invalid assumption for Method (c) above, by
assuming that cyclones are at their maximum strength along their entire
path crossing the sampling circle, even after they have crossed extensive
land areas.
ii) In Method (a), the annual rate of simulated cyclones at each station greatly
exceeded the average annual rate for those recorded for the entire
Australian region.
iii) Key cyclones were omitted from the analysis for Townsville and Port Hedland
when comparing the risk at those location with that at Darwin.

In addition to the above flaws, Cook and Nicholls ignored any ground observations in
their analyses of historical events, and relied completely on satellite-based estimates
of wind speeds. As has been shown recently in Cyclone Yasi (see Chapter 10), such
62
estimates are, in many cases, over-conservative and primarily used for warning
purposes, and should not be relied on for quantitative risk assessment.

As discussed in Section 9.5 of this report, Harper et al. subsequently showed that the
number of tropical cyclones, for any specified threshold, affecting Port Hedland
(Region D) greatly exceeded the number affecting Darwin over the same period.
Analysis of recorded gusts from anemometers at Port Hedland and Darwin
supported this, and it was concluded that based on the best available evidence from
the current climate, Darwin is adequately treated by its current location in Region C.

The data provided by WindRiskTech in Approach (a) by Cook and Nicholls, appears to
be very similar to that provided to Geoscience Australia (GA) for a cyclone risk study
for Australia (see Section 8.5). Comparisons of predictions by GA from this data set
generated by a Global Climate Model, and those based on the Bureau of
Meteorologys best-track database indicated over-estimates of values of design
wind speeds (V
500
) by more than 25% (Arthur, 2010) for the northern part of
Australia (north of 15
o
S). These differences are very close to the difference between
V
500
for Regions D and C (88/69 = 1.27), and may explain the conclusions of Cook and
Nicholls based on the simulated data provided by WindRiskTech.

9.5 Observed wind speeds and overview of cyclone risk for Darwin and the NT

The predictions of significantly higher wind speeds by Nicholls and Cook for Darwin,
than those that the Standard AS/NZS1170.2:2002 predicts, are not supported on
strong probabilistic arguments, and are partly based on overestimates of gust wind
speeds from recent cyclones. Also, as noted by Nicholls, his groups predictions
contradict significantly earlier predictions for Darwin by Georgiou (2000) and Harper
(2005), (although these earlier studies did not include the full effect of the TIM
cyclones). Studies by Geoscience Australia (Arthur et al. 2008, Lavender et al., 2011)
showed a similar risk for Darwin as for the North Queensland coast, but significantly
lower risk than for the Port Hedland-Onslow coastal strip in Western Australia.

It is of interest to consider the observed gust wind speeds at Darwin Airport due to
tropical cyclones. This is shown in Figure 9.2 for the period 1960 to 2005. Maximum
wind gusts from the daily database during all cyclones in the Bureau of Meteorology
cyclone database are shown. The official value of 61 m/s for Cyclone Tracy (1974)
shown in the daily database for Darwin Airport, is shown although it is widely
believed that the true maximum is greater (the anemometer failed during this
event).



63


















Figure 9.2. Maximum wind gusts speeds at Darwin Airport due to cyclones
1960-2005

The gust speed for Tracy is clearly much larger than all others recorded. Those for
Thelma (1998) and Ingrid (2005) at Darwin are both no more than 20 m/s. Figure
9.2 can be compared with similar figures for Onslow and Port Hedland (Region D)
shown in Appendix A. With seven cyclones producing gusts greater than 40 m/s,
and three events producing 50 m/s over a similar period, Port Hedland is clearly
historically much more active than Darwin. Onslow had two events producing 60
m/s and four above 50 m/s during a similar period. However, Learmonth WA, also
currently in Region D, has a similar chart to Darwin with only one large event
(Cyclone Vance in 1999).

It should be noted that the values of gust wind speeds in Figure 9.2 and in Appendix
A, since about 1990 (the exact date is uncertain), were recorded with automatic
weather stations (AWS), and a 3-second moving average was applied to the digital
outputs from the cup anemometers. This change results in recorded gusts, on
average being 15-20% lower than those from earlier years recorded by the Dines
anemometer (Ginger et al. 2011). Gusts from the latter instrument are the basis for
AS/NZS1170.2. However, application of increases of 15-20% to the later gusts in
Figure 9.2 by 15-20% would still result in them being all less than 30 m/s.

Similar data to that in Figure 9.2 are not available for stations on the northern
coastline and offshore islands of the Northern Territory, but it is possible that such
charts, if they were available, would be more similar to those for Port Hedland or
Onslow, based on recent cyclonic activity.

Cyclonic wind speeds - Darwin 1960-2005
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1
9
6
0
1
9
6
4
1
9
6
5
1
9
6
8
1
9
7
1
1
9
7
4
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
5
1
9
8
7
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
8
2
0
0
2
Year
G
u
s
t

s
p
e
e
d

(
m
/
s
)
Thelma 1998
Ingrid 2005
Tracy 1974
64
9.6 Discussion and conclusions

Recent studies by Nicholls and Cook in Darwin have cast doubt on the current
(Region C) zoning for Darwin in AS/NZS1170.2. Apparently Nicholls and Cook
significantly over-estimated the gust speeds near ground level, by using estimated
wind speeds from satellite technology instead of the reported surface wind gust
speeds, in the Bureau of Meteorology database for Cyclones Thelma, Ingrid and
Monica (the TIM cyclones). The latter events had little effect on Darwin, but a
more significant effect on the northern coastline and islands of the Northern
Territory, particularly Cyclone Ingrid see Figure 9.1. Furthermore, some
simulated data used by Nicholls and Cook to support their case has been shown by
Geoscience Australia to greatly overestimate the cyclone risk in the northern part of
Australia (Arthur, 2010).

The need to use wind speeds from ground truth studies, instead of estimated wind
speeds derived from satellite observations, and primarily used for warning purposes,
is reinforced by the analysis after Cyclone Yasi (Chapter 10 in this report), which
found significantly lower wind speeds overland than those estimated from satellite
observations for that event.

Recent detailed comments by Harper et al. (2010) have reinforced and extended the
arguments given in this Chapter. This paper found that, based on the best
evidence available for the current climate, Darwin is correctly located in Region C in
AS/NZS1170.2.

Finally it should be noted that the recent simulations by Lavender et al. (2011) for
the whole Australian region, gave very similar predictions of design wind speeds for
Darwin as for the Queensland coast (i.e. Region C) and lower values than those
found for the north-west coast of Western Australia (i.e. the present Region D), for
both the current climate and for projected future climates under global warming
scenarios, and largely supported the present regional zoning in AS/NZS1170.2.

Consideration of the strength of the recent TIM cyclones and of the propensity of the
tracks to cross the islands along the northern extremity (i.e. Croker, Bathurst and
Melville Islands and the Cobourg Peninsula) of the Northern Territory, from east to
west, with little weakening suggests there may be a case for the allocation higher
design wind speeds to these locations. However, projections by Lavender et al.
(2011) (Fig. 19) suggest that extreme wind speeds in these areas will in fact
significantly reduce under future climate change scenarios for these islands, as they
will for Darwin itself.

65

References

W.C. Arthur (2010), Projected changes in cyclonic wind hazard in the Australian
Region. 29th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 10 - 14 May
2010, Tucson, Arizona, USA.

W.C. Arthur, A. Schofield, R. P. Cechet and L. A. Sanabria (2008), Return period
cyclonic wind hazard in the Australian Region, 28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes
and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April - 2 May 2008, Orlando, FL, USA.

G.N. Boughton, D.J. Henderson, J.D. Ginger, J.D. Holmes, G.R. Walker, C.J. Leitch,
L.R.Somerville, U. Frye, N.C. Jayasinghe, P.Y.Kim (2011), Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Structural damage to buildings, James Cook University, Cyclone Testing Station,
Technical Report No. 57, March 2011.

G.D. Cook (2007), Has the hazard from tropical cyclone gusts been underestimated
for northern Australia? personal communication (M.J. Syme), CSIRO Sustainable
Ecosystems.

G.D. Cook and M.J. Nicholls (2009), Estimation of tropical cyclone wind hazard for
Darwin: Comparison with two other locations and the Australian Wind Loading
Code, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 48, pp 2231-2340.

P.N. Georgiou, (2000), On the probability of Darwin being struck by a category 5
cyclone. A report to the Northern Territory Department of Transport and Works and
Colless & O'Neill Pty Ltd. Environment and Climate Risk Assessment, Pymble, NSW.

B.A. Harper, (2005), Darwin TCWC Northern Region Storm Tide Prediction System.
System Development Technical Report, pp. 112 + appendices. Systems Engineering
Australia Pty Ltd, Bridgeman Downs, Qld.

B.A. Harper, J.D. Holmes, J.D. Kepert, L.M. Mason, P.J. Vickery, (2010), Comments
on Estimation of tropical cyclone wind hazard for Darwin: Comparison with two
other locations and the Australian Wind Loading Code, by G.D. Cook and M.J.
Nicholls, submitted to Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

G.J. Holland, A analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes ,
Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 108, pp 1212-1218, 1980.

S.L. Lavender, K.J.E. Walsh, D.J. Abbs, M. Thatcher, W.C. Arthur and R.P. Cechet
(2011), Regional climate tropical cyclone hazard for infrastructure adaption to
climate change, Final Report, June 2011.

M. Nicholls et al (2007), Review of NT cyclone risks, Report by the Community
Group for the review of NT cyclone risks, April 2007. (available on CD-ROM and at
www.cyclone.org.au).
66
10. Comments and observations from Cyclone Yasi

10.1 Introduction

Tropical Cyclone Yasi was a severe tropical cyclone, with a relatively large diameter,
that crossed the Queensland coast near Mission Beach just after midnight on
Thursday 3 February 2011. It moved into the Coral Sea from the east, having been
named in the Fiji region. Yasi received extensive coverage by the media due to its
size, and it being called a Category 5 event by the Bureau of Meteorology. Damage
from wind forces and storm surge occurred between Townsville to Cairns, with the
most severe damage occurring between Ingham and Innisfail. A satellite image of
Cyclone Yasi just before it crossed the coast is given on the front cover of this
report.

A full report on the wind and storm surge damage resulting from Cyclone Yasi is
available (Boughton et al., 2011)

10.2 Windfield and maximum wind gusts

Three approaches were used to estimate the maximum values of gusts reached at
the main centres affected by Cyclone Yasi:

a) Use of anemometer data from the Bureau of Meteorology, or other agencies,
where available. However, these were sparsely distributed and had some
siting problems.
b) A field investigation of failed and non-failed road signs (windicators)
c) Use of the Holland wind field model (Holland, 1980) to predict wind speeds,
and interpolate between the windicator estimates.

The windicator technique, which had been used in Australia since Cyclone Althea
in 1971, was further developed in this event. Over 100 failed road signs were
inspected during the course of the field investigation. Many of these were found to
have failed as a result of a footing failure and were ignored. Detailed dimensions
were obtained from those that had shown a permanent deformation resulting from
generation of a plastic moment at, or near, ground level. In those cases, a suitable
non-failed sign was sought in the general vicinity, although this was not always
possible. When the information was available, lower and upper limits of gust wind
speed could be derived. The methodology for the windicator approach is described
in TR57 (Boughton et al., 2011, Appendix A2)

The wind field for the study area was also mapped by the author, using the Holland
model to interpolate between the recordings from the windicators. The time
67
histories of wind speeds and directions predicted by the model were compared with
the available recorded data from four automatic weather stations. This approach
and the results for Yasi, are discussed in Appendix C (this is a revised version of that
given in TR57, Boughton et al., 2011).

The wind field modelling suggests that the maximum gusts experienced by structures
in the study area were about 65 m/s (standardized to 10 m height over flat, open
terrain, and approximately the gust to which a road sign of about 1m
2
responds to).
This represents about 94% of the design wind gust speed (V
500
) for most structures in
Region C.

10.3 Gust wind speeds in Yasi compared to V
R
in AS/NZS1170.2

Although the maximum gust (acting on a 1 square metre area) predicted to have
occurred anywhere during Yasi of 65 m/s, was below the design wind speed (V
500
)
of 69.3 m/s for Level 2 buildings in Region C, it exceeded slightly the value (64 m/s)
for Level 1 buildings. Of course, the predicted maximum of 65 m/s was for a
relatively small area near Cardwell, and other locations received lower gusts.

A number of coastal locations on the south side of the point of eye crossing, such as
South Mission Beach, Tully Heads and Dunk Island, are predicted to have
experienced gusts equivalent to V
100
(59 m/s or 212 kilometres per hour) or more
see Table C3 in Appendix C. Only these plus a few other coastal towns such as
Bingil Bay and Kurrimine experienced V
50
(55 m/s or 197 km/h) or greater gusts.

Nearly all locations listed in Table C3 in Appendix C3 experienced gust wind speeds
greater than V
25
(49 m/s or 178 km/h), and Townsville, about 170 kilometres away
from the centre of Yasi at its closest point, experienced wind gusts of 44 m/s
(approximately V
15
) as recorded by a Dines anemometer.

10.4 Risk of exceedence of Yasi level winds in the future

Yasi was a strong event with winds approaching design values according to
AS/NZS1170.2, and the knowledge of its wind field characteristics can be used to give
rough estimates of the annual risk of exceedence of cyclonic winds of say 60 m/s.

Hence, an estimate can be made of the annual risk of exceedence of winds of 60 m/s
due to tropical cyclones on the Queensland coast, by assuming that a tropical
cyclone of the magnitude of Yasi i.e. capable of generating wind gusts of 60 m/s,
or greater, impacts on that coastline on average every 25 years. This is probably
reasonable based on the experience of the last 50 years, since the only other storm
to impact in that time capable of generating 60 m/s gusts was Larry in 2006.
68
Assume the strip of coastline affected by 60 m/s gusts or greater, during such events
is 100 kilometres i.e. roughly twice the diameter of the eye of Yasi. Then,
assuming a total length of coastline of 2000 kilometres roughly the distance from
Bundaberg to Cape York, and the length of Region C in Queensland, the approximate
annual probability or exceedence of 60 m/s gusts is:
(Annual rate of occurrence of Yasi-level storms) (chance of intersection of any
given location with the 50 kilometre strip)

= (1/25) (100/2000) = (4/2000) = 1/500

This rough calculation suggests wind gusts with an average recurrence interval (or
return period) of 500 years is about 60 m/s, somewhat less than the value of 69 m/s
given for V
500
in AS/NZS1170.2:2011.

Of course, there may well be a greater chance of a storm of Yasis magnitude
striking the middle section on the Queensland coast, say between Cooktown and
Mackay, than there is to the north and south of those locations, respectively. Thus,
the length of the target strip might be reduced to 1000 kilometres. Also for climatic
reasons, such as an increase in La Nina events, or due to global warming, the
frequency of events such as Yasi may increase let us say the annual rate of
occurrence doubles to (2/25). In those conservative scenarios, the revised annual
probability of exceedence of 60 m/s gusts is:

= (2/25) (100/1000) = (1/125)

The value of V
125
calculated from the equation for V
R
given for Region C below Table
3.1 in AS/NZS1170.2:2011 is:
F
c
(122-104R
-0.1
) = 1.05 [122 104(125)
-0.1
] = 61 m/s

The above calculations, although very approximate, suggest that the values given in
AS/NZS1170.2:2011 are adequate, and, in fact, are conservative based on the
current climate for at least the Queensland east coast part of Region C. Of course,
this statement does not necessarily apply to other coastlines in Australia.

10.5 Conclusion

The extensive post-event analysis of Cyclone Yasi, the strongest event to strike the
east coast of Queensland in the last fifty years, has established to a good accuracy
the maximum gust wind field of Cyclone Yasi, with verified gust speeds based on
ground truth. This leads to approximate estimates of average recurrence intervals
(i.e. return periods) for wind gusts of 60 m/s or greater. Such estimates indicate
69
that values currently given in AS/NZS1170.2:2011 for Region C are conservative, with
some allowance for future climate changes.

The analysis in this chapter indicates the need to use validated gust wind speeds,
based on measurements at ground level, and supported by wind field modelling,
such as that provided by the well-established Holland model. Such analysis and
modeling should be carried out whenever a severe event such as Yasi strikes
anywhere along the tropical coastline of Australia.

It should be noted that estimates of wind gust speeds stated universally in the
media, both before and after Yasi, far exceeded those given in Appendix C and TR57
(Boughton et al., 2011); this led to unwarranted concerns regarding the adequacy of
the various Australian Standards and the Building Code of Australia to provide
adequate safety in events such as Yasi. Such concerns proved to be unfounded, at
least for buildings constructed since 1980, as the damage surveys have shown.


References

G.N. Boughton and nine others (2011), Tropical Cyclone Yasi structural damage
to buildings, James Cook University, Cyclone Testing Station, CTS Technical Report
57, April 2011.

G.J. Holland (1980), A analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in
hurricanes, Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 108, pp 1212-1218.
70

11. Conclusions and recommendations

11.1 General conclusions

The Australian Standard for Wind Actions (Standards Australia, 2011) sets wind
speeds for structural design for return periods specified by the Building Code of
Australia. The Standard has designated special regions for design wind speeds for
tropical cyclones since 1975. However, possible effects of climate change due to
global warming have, up to now, been deliberately excluded (Standards Australia
2002).

JDH Consulting has reviewed scientific literature and other sources, from both
Australia and overseas, relevant to the problem of predicting cyclonic wind speeds in
a warming climate. The trends in the last thirty years in which satellite images are
available and consistent are still somewhat inconclusive. The following statement
by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) summarizes the global situation:
There is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in
the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases in sea surface
temperatures. There are also suggestions of increased intense tropical cyclone
activity in some other regions where concerns over data quality are greater. There
is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones.

Regarding projections into the future from models, the expert Working Group on
Tropical-cyclone activity on climate time scales reported to the Seventh
International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (Knutson et al., 2010):
It is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or
remain essentially unchanged due to greenhouse warming. We have very low
confidence in projected changes in individual basins. Current models project changes
ranging from -6 to -34% globally, and up to +/-50% or more in individual basins by
the late 21
st
Century. Some increase in mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed is
likely (+2 to +11% globally) with projected 21
st
Century warming although increases
may not occur in all tropical regions. The frequency of the most intense storms will
more likely than not increase by a substantially larger percentage in some basins.

In the Australian Region there has been a fall in the frequency of tropical cyclones
during most of the last thirty years. This is correlated with the Southern Oscillation
Index and the well-known El Nino phenomenon. The latter also manifests itself in
the increase in sea surface temperature in the central Pacific Ocean, and may be a
consequence of global warming. However, a strong La Nina event re-appeared in
2011 with Cyclone Yasi (see Chapter 10) and the floods in southeast Queensland
being results of that.
71

Modelling by Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the Australian Region predict an
average fall in the number of cyclones in the Australian Region of 30% by the end of
the 21st Century (Lavender and Walsh, 2011).

There is evidence that the number of more intense cyclones (Category 3 and above)
in the Australian Region has increased slightly in the last thirty years. These more
intense storms are those of relevance for ultimate limits state design of buildings and
other structures. The apparent trend may be affected, at least partly, by changes in
the observational practices of the Bureau of Meteorology, and reflected in the
tropical cyclones database maintained by the National Climate Centre of the BoM.

However, an increase in more intense cyclones due to global warming, for the Coral
Sea region off the Queensland coast, is predicted by GCMs by several independent
studies. Three studies also predict a 2-3
o
southward shift in average tropical cyclone
occurrences off the Queensland coast.

Studies of the average inland decay of hurricanes in the United States and for
Cyclone George (2007) in Australia, indicate the current widths of the regional
boundaries are slightly conservative but adequately specified. However, a clearer
definition of smoothed coastline needs to be given in the Standard.

Recommendations for the design wind speeds for Regions B, C and D in
AS/NZS1170.2 are given in the Section 11.3 Other related recommendations are
listed in Section 11.4.

11.2 Estimates of the effects of climate change on design wind speeds

An approximate estimate of the change in return periods of high wind speeds can be
made based on predicted changes in numbers and intensities of tropical cyclones as
a result of global warming.

The return periods of high wind speeds due to tropical cyclones can be written
approximately as:

R
v
~ [.p
L
. p
S
G
v,c
(V) ]
-1
(11.1)

where is the average annual rate of occurrence of tropical cyclones in the region
p
L
is the probability of a cyclone making landfall somewhere along the
coastline of interest
p
S
is the probability of the region of maximum winds affecting a particular site
on the coastline,
72
G
v,c
(V) is the probability of exceedence of the wind speed, V by the maximum
gust in the maximum wind region of the cyclone.

It should be noted that Eq. (11.1) is only valid for high return periods and the
corresponding high wind speeds, which can be assumed are caused by a single very
severe cyclone. The annual probability of exceedence of lower wind speeds is
obtained from an accumulation of contributions from a number of lesser events, and
in those cases Eq. (11.1) is not valid. However, Eq. (11.1) is sufficient to estimate the
changes in return period for the high wind speeds of ultimate limit states design
resulting from predicted changes in tropical cyclones.

For example, consider Coral Sea cyclones with the potential to affect 2000
kilometres of Queensland coastline. The average rate of occurrence of tropical
cyclones in the Coral Sea in recent years is about 3. Assume the probability of any
one of these making landfall somewhere along the eastern coastline is p
L
= 0.5.
Given a landfall, the geometric probability of a diameter of maximum winds of 100
kilometres to envelope a given building site along the coastline is about 100/2000 or
0.05. Then substituting the known values for the current climate in Eq. (11.1) for a
return period R of 500 years and a gust wind speed at 10 metres of 69 m/s,

500 ~ [3(0.5) (0.05) G
v,c
(V) ]
-1


from which we find G
v,c
(V) = 0.0267, for V
500
= 69 m/s in the current climate.

Assume that the annual number of cyclones of any strength in the region reduces by
30% (as predicted by the modeling of Lavender and Walsh (2011) for the Australian
Region), then reduces to an average of 2.1 per annum. Also, assume that the
intensity of the maximum wind speed, V, increases by 7%, so that V for the same
probability of exceedence, G
v,c
(V) = 0.027, increases from 69 m/s to 74 m/s (this
increase is typical of what is being predicted by models as a result of global
warming).

Then the return period of 74 m/s in the new climate is
~ [2.1(0.5) (0.05) 0.0267]
-1
= 714 years

However the return period of 74 m/s for Region C in AS/NZS1170.2 in the current
climate is about 1150 years. Thus stronger winds are expected to occur more
frequently in this scenario.

Although this calculation is approximate, it is insensitive to the assumptions; for
example if the assumed probability of landfall, p
L
is changed to 0.4 in both the
current and future climates, there is no change in the calculated return period of 74
73
m/s of 714 years. However, of course, if the probability of landfall increases in the
future climate, the return period of any given wind speed will fall further.

This approach can be developed further and generalized, enabling interesting
scenarios to be investigated, e.g. it can be shown that for the above case the
frequency of cyclone occurrences in the Coral Sea would need to fall by about 60% to
compensate for an average increase in wind speed of the strongest storms by 7%.
On the other hand, a 30% fall in the average number of cyclones is sufficient to
compensate for a 3% increase in maximum wind speed of the strongest events.

11.3 Recommendations for the Australian Standard and BCA

Based on the reviews carried out for this report, the following recommendations are
made.

1. The peak wind gust used as the basis for the Australian/New Zealand Standard
AS/NZS1170.2 needs re-definition, as it clearly is not the 3-second gust used by the
Bureau of Meteorology and the World Meteorological Organization. A proposal for
the re-definition of the peak gust in AS/NZS1170.2 is given in this report (Appendix
B).

2. The current regional boundary for Region D should be extended north east along
the Western Australian coast to 15
o
S. This will incorporate Broome and Derby. This
change reflects the occurrence zone of tropical cyclones (see Figure 1.1), and is also
recommended in the report by the Cyclone Testing Station on Cyclone George
(Boughton and Falck, 2007). Note this recommendation is based on the current
climate not on any future projections resulting from global warming.

3. There is also a case to upgrade the most northerly offshore islands of the
Northern Territory and the northerly part of the Cobourg Peninsula. However, a
decision on the latter should be deferred until a detailed re-assessment of the
maximum wind speeds in Cyclones Thelma, Ingrid and Monica has been made.
The experience from Cyclones Larry and Yasi in Queensland for which detailed
analyses of the wind gusts over land were made, indicated much lower maximum
wind gusts than those predicted from satellite imaging approaches.

On the basis of existing information, it is not recommended that Darwin be included
in Region D.

4. An upgrading of the current Region B in Queensland between 25
o
S and 27
o
S, as
previously proposed, should also be put on hold until further evidence is available,
and improved simulations based on climate models are available.

However, it is
74
recommended an informative note should be added to AS/NZS1170.2 and AS4055,
warning of the possibility of cyclones up to Category 3 penetrating further south
along the Queensland coast.

5. The existing factors for Regions C and D, F
C
and F
D
, should be incorporated into
the regional wind speeds. Severe cyclones since 1999 such as Vance, Larry, and
Yasi have justified incorporating the increases into the design wind speeds.
However, there is evidence to increase the design wind speeds beyond the present
values from climate change predictions. However, it appears that projected
increases in the intensities of the strongest cyclones are at least partly mitigated by
the projected reduction in the average number of cyclones of about 30%.

6. The smoothed coastline may be defined by applying a moving average filter
with a length of 50 kilometres to the actual coastline. This value is characteristic of
the eye diameter of a typical cyclone, and ensures that minor features that will not
affect the storm characteristics, are not included. A project should be initiated to
provide a map of Australia with this smoothed coastline on an internet web site, for
ease of use by designers and local authorities.

7. The vertical profiles of wind gust speed for Regions C and D in AS/NZS1170.2
have been derived from measured data for a particular location, 3-5 kilometres from
the coastline, and incorporate a sea-land transition that may not be appropriate
further inland. The wind profiles (M
z,cat
) for tropical cyclones need to be re-
considered taking account of recent dropwindsonde measurements in U.S.
hurricanes.

8. The Standard currently recommends that Terrain Category 2 (roughness length =
0.02 m) should be used for off-ocean winds for both cyclonic and non-cyclonic
regions for ultimate limit states design. However the recent dropwindsonde
measurements in hurricanes off the United States (discussed in Chapter 4) indicate
that the water surface is much smoother at high wind speeds near the radius of
maximum winds. It is therefore recommended that Terrain Category 1 be specified
for off-water winds for coastal locations in Regions C and D.


11.4 Other recommendations

1. Global climate models (such as those described by Lavender and Walsh, 2011)
should be extended with surface wind field models to give predictions of extreme
gust wind speeds at 10 metres height for structural design. Such work has already
commenced with the recent collaborative work reported by Lavender et al. (2011).
It is important that such models be calibrated against the current climate.
75

2. As climate change effects on tropical cyclone activity is the subject of ongoing
studies by several groups in Australia and overseas, a similar review to the one
carried out for this report should be undertaken every 3 to 5 years. The present
report is a starting point for these revisions, following the original report produced
by JDH Consulting in 2008.

3. The historic tropical cyclone database maintained by the Bureau of Meteorology
is most important for the prediction of cyclonic wind speeds and other effects. It is
known to have significant errors and is currently being revised by the Bureau. There
also appear to be systematic errors in the wind speeds listed in the database derived
from satellite images by the Dvorak technique. These values are unrealistically high
and inconsistent with surface observations, including some of those listed elsewhere
in the database. These errors have led to inaccurate conclusions to be drawn by
some users of the database, and it is recommended that the methodology used to
derive the wind speeds be reviewed.

4. A recent project (funded in part by the Department of Climate Change and
Energy Efficiency) on the response of the anemometer systems used in the past and
present by the Bureau of Meteorology has shown there are significant differences
between the pre-1990 readings from Dines anemometers and those from the
current Automatic Weather Stations, particularly at stations affected by tropical
cyclones. The Bureau of Meteorology should provide details of the change-over
dates of the anemometers so that appropriate corrections of the historical database
can be made.

5. The quality and quantity of observations of the strength and effects of tropical
cyclones in the Australian Region is vastly inferior to that available in the United
States. Accepting that resources will not allow the same level of instrumentation to
be deployed in Australia, some increased effort should be made in this country in the
following areas:

- Deployment of mobile anemometers before land-falling cyclones to obtain
accurate spatial wind speed information from future cyclones. (This is
currently practised by several groups in the U.S.; however in Australia
damage and post-event surveys have had to rely on wind damage assessment
from structures such as road signs, and even from tree damage).
- Deployment of dropwindsondes (see Chapter 4) in Australia, including the
possibility of dropping them over remote land sites (deployment over land is
currently not permitted in the United States)


76

References

G.N. Boughton and D. Falck (2007), Tropical Cyclone George Wind penetration
inland, Cyclone Testing Station, James Cook University, Technical Report No.53,
August 2007.

CSIRO (2007). Climate change in Australia. Technical Report. CSIRO.

T.R. Knutson and 12 others (2010). Report of Working Group on TC activity on
climate time scales, Seventh International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, Reunion
Island, November 15-20, 2010.

S.L. Lavender and K..J.E. Walsh (2011), Dynamically downscaled simulations of
Australian region tropical cyclones in current and future climates, Geophysical
Research Letters, Vol.38, L10705.

S.L. Lavender, K.J.E. Walsh, D.J. Abbs, M. Thatcher, W.C. Arthur and R.P. Cechet
(2011), Regional climate tropical cyclone hazard for infrastructure adaption to
climate change, Final Report, June 2011.

Standards Australia (2002), Structural design actions-Wind actions-Commentary.
(Supplement to AS/NZS 1170.2:2002).

Standards Australia (2011), Structural design actions. Part 2: Wind actions. AS/NZS
1170.2:2011.


77
APPENDIX A

MAXIMUM RECORDED WIND GUSTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES AT SELECTED
LOCATIONS IN AUSTRALIA

The following charts show gusts primarily recorded by Dines anemometers.
However later values since about 1990 (the actual date varies from station to
station) have been recorded by cup anemometers associated with Automatic
Weather Stations (AWS). In a few cases at Onslow and Port Hedland, modeled
values have been substituted when the anemometer has failed.

It should be noted that the gusts recorded by the AWSs have also been digitally
averaged with a 3-second moving-average filter, following a World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) recommendation. A recent study (Ginger et al., 2011) has
found that this processing, together with the change of anemometer, produces
maximum gusts that are, on average, 15-20% less than earlier values generated by
Dines anemometer which are the basis of AS/NZS1170.2. For example, the Dines
anemometer at Learmonth during Cyclone Vance read 15% greater than the gust
recorded by the AWS; (the Dines reading is shown in the chart for Learmonth
following).

The later gusts shown in the following charts have not been corrected for the change
of measurement systems; however such corrections will be required in the future,
once change-over dates have been established.


Cyclonic wind speeds - Broome 1957-2007
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1
9
5
7
1
9
6
1
1
9
6
3
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
3
1
9
7
5
1
9
7
7
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
3
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
8
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
7
W
i
n
d

g
u
s
t

s
p
e
e
d

(
m
/
s
)


Broome (Region C) has been fortunate in not experiencing the full brunt of a tropical
cyclone although it is located close to the most active part of the Australian region.


78
Cyclonic wind speeds - Cairns 1956-2001
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1
9
5
6
1
9
5
9
1
9
6
1
1
9
6
9
1
9
7
1
1
9
7
6
1
9
7
7
1
9
7
9
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
3
1
9
8
6
1
9
9
7
2
0
0
0
W
i
n
d

g
u
s
t

s
p
e
e
d

(
m
/
s
)

Cairns (Region C) has not received a direct strike by a tropical cyclone since 1956.
Cyclone Winifred in 1986 did significant damage to Innisfail to the south of Cairns
but only produced a 30 m/s gust at Cairns Airport. More recently there have been
some effects from Cyclone Larry (2006) and Yasi (2011).



Cyclonic wind speeds - Darwin 1960-2005
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1
9
6
0
1
9
6
4
1
9
6
5
1
9
6
8
1
9
7
1
1
9
7
4
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
5
1
9
8
7
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
8
2
0
0
2
Year
G
u
s
t

s
p
e
e
d

(
m
/
s
)

Darwin (Region C) was directly hit by Cyclone Tracy in 1974, but no other direct
strikes between 1959 and 2005.




79
Cyclonic wind speeds - Learmonth 1979-2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1
9
7
9
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
2
1
9
8
3
1
9
8
4
1
9
8
5
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
7
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
6
Year
W
i
n
d

g
u
s
t

s
p
e
e
d

(
m
/
s
)

Learmonth/Exmouth (Region D) experienced the largest gust in Australia recorded by
a Dines anemometer during Cyclone Vance in 1999 (74 m/s)






Cyclonic wind speeds - Onslow 1958-2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1
9
5
8
1
9
6
0
1
9
6
2
1
9
6
3
1
9
6
4
1
9
6
6
1
9
6
8
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
1
1
9
7
3
1
9
7
5
1
9
7
6
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
4
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
8
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
4
W
i
n
d

g
u
s
t

s
p
e
e
d

(
m
/
s
)


Onslow (Region D) has experienced several strikes between 1959 and 2004, with a
highest gust of 68.5 m/s from Cyclone Trixie in 1975.



80
Cyclonic wind speeds - Port Hedland 1958-2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1
9
5
8
1
9
6
0
1
9
6
2
1
9
6
3
1
9
6
8
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
3
1
9
7
4
1
9
7
5
1
9
7
9
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
3
1
9
8
4
1
9
8
7
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
8
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
4
W
i
n
d

g
u
s
t

s
p
e
e
d

(
m
/
s
)


Port Hedland (Region D) experienced several high cyclonic gusts between 1960 and
2004, including those from Cyclone Joan in 1975, and Leo in 1977.

81

APPENDIX B

PROPOSAL FOR A NEW DEFINITION OF THE PEAK GUST FOR AS/NZS1170.2

B1. Introduction

The Australian/New Zealand Standard for Wind Actions AS/NZS1170.2:2011 is based
on a basic wind speed which is currently described in Section 3.2 of the Standard as
a 3 second gust (Standards Australia, 2011). The original version of AS1170.2-1973
(Standards Australia, 1973), and its predecessor CA 34 Part 2 (Standards Australia,
1971), both refer to a gust of 2 to 3 seconds duration as the basic wind speed.
This definition appears to have originated from the report by Whittingham (1964),
who stated that the Dines anemometer gives a good indication of the speed of
strong gusts of 2 to 3 seconds duration. The 2-3 second definition continued up
the 1989 edition of AS1170.2 (Standards Australia, 1989), which stated that the
basic design gust wind speed is defined in this standard as being the maximum 2-
second to 3-second gust occurring within 1 hour....

With the benefit of modern equipment and techniques the recent DCEE-supported
project (Ginger et al. 2011) has shown that the first natural mode of the low-speed
Dines anemometer has a period of about 2 seconds, and the high-speed type, used
mainly in cyclonic regions, has a natural period of about 3 seconds. However, these
values are not equivalent moving, or block, averaging times. It can be shown, from
the results in the DCEE project, that the equivalent moving averaging time for the
damped resonant response of the Dines anemometer, in relation to the maximum
gusts produced, is actually about 0.1 to 0.3 seconds (depending on the type, and on
the mean wind speed) i.e. much shorter than the 2-3 seconds stated in the
Standard. Since the Australian Standard is largely based on uncorrected gusts from
the Dines anemometers, it can therefore be asserted that the basis of the Standard is
a gust with a much shorter averaging time.

Shortly after the introduction of Automatic Weather Stations with cup anemometers
(about 1990), the Bureau of Meteorology incorporated a 3-second moving average
based on a World Meteorological Organization specification (Beljaars, 1987), in
addition to the inherent filtering of the cup anemometer itself. This double
filtering results in severely attenuated wind spectra at the high-frequency end, and
in maximum gusts 10-20% less than those previously recorded by the Dines
anemometers, and forming the basis for the Standard.

In this Appendix, an alternative definition of maximum gust is proposed, which is
generally consistent with the implied definition used in Australian and New Zealand
Standards for the last 40 years. However, new gust data generated since 1990,
incorporating the 3-second moving average filter, will require correction before
being used for basic regional wind speeds in the Standard.

82
The alternative option of re-defining the gust wind speed in AS/NZS1170.2 to that
used by the Bureau of Meteorology and the WMO, would require a reduction in
wind speeds that would need to vary from region to region, and a corresponding
increase in shape factors.

B2. Proposed definition

The proposed definition of the basic maximum gust in AS/NZS1170.2 is as follows:

The largest expected gust averaged over an area of 1 square metre normal to the
wind flow, centred at a height of ten metres over flat, open country, terrain.

The above definition incorporates an aerodynamic admittance function for the area
of 1 square metre, which effectively filters the turbulence in the approaching wind.
This is a small enough area for the assumed quasi-steady relationship between peak
gusts in the approaching wind, and peak wind pressures and forces to apply, and it
also results in little reduction in the maximum gust as recorded by an ideal
anemometer.

An appropriate function for the aerodynamic admittance is discussed in the
following section, and subsequently used to develop correction values for recorded
gust data.

B3. Methodology for deriving correction factors

Random process theory can be used to predict the wind gust factors recorded by 3-
cup and Dines anemometers in a turbulent wind of known intensity and spectral
density. It can also be used to derive the gust factor for the wind spectral density
filtered by the aerodynamic admittance for the area in the proposed definition.

Using this approach, the spectral density of the wind turbulence was modelled using
the well-known von Karman form, which, in non-dimensional form, can be written as
follows:
6 / 5
2
2
8 . 70 1
4
) ( .
(
(

|
.
|

\
|
+
|
.
|

\
|
=
U
n
U
n
n S n
u
u
u
u

o
(B1)

where
u
is an integral length scale, and o
u
is the standard deviation of
turbulence which can be obtained from the mean wind speed and the
intensity of turbulence (i.e. o
u
= I
u
U).

For a height of 10 metres, AS/NZS1170.2 gives a value of
u
of 85 metres.

The aerodynamic admittance was incorporated by multiplying the spectral density by
a transfer function |H (n)|
2
. The following expression was used, based on numerous
measurements on small plates in grid turbulence (Vickery, 1968):
83
2
3 / 4
2
2
1
1
| ) ( |
(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|
+
=
U
A n
n H
(B2)

where A is the exposed area.

For calculation of the gust factors associated with the Dines and cup anemometers,
including the effect of 3-second moving averaging, transfer functions have been
given in Appendix II-4 of the DCCEE report (Ginger et al., 2011).

The cycling rate or average frequency, u, of the filtered process can be calculated as
follows.

(B3)

Note: It should be noted that the numerator in Eq. (B3) with use of S
u
(n) from Eq.
(B1),unfiltered, i.e. with |H(n)|
2
equal to 1.0 for all n, will not converge. Thus, some
form of filtering is required for a cycling ratio to be calculated. At very high
frequencies in the atmosphere, the spectrum decays faster than given by Eq. (B1)
due to the formation of a viscous sub-range.

The expected peak factor can be calculated using the well-known formula for
Gaussian random processes of Davenport (1964):

(B4)
where is Eulers Constant (0.5772), and T is the sample time for which
the expected peak is to be determined.

Finally the expected gust factor was obtained from:
(B5)

where o
u,f
is the standard deviation of the filtered process given by:
(B6)

B4. Spectral densities

The spectral density of the turbulence as modified by either the 1 square metre area,
or by an anemometer, is shown, for two different mean wind speeds, in Figures B1
to B4.

It can be seen that the modified spectrum in Figure B1, under the aerodynamic
admittance for 1 square metre, i.e. that associated with the proposed definition,
moves to the right i.e. increasing frequencies with increasing wind speed, along
with the underlying wind spectrum.
84

The spectra modified by the low speed (100 knot) and high-speed (200 knot) types of
Dines anemometer are shown in Figures B2 and B3, respectively. These show peaks
due to the resonant frequencies of the float system, and hence distorted spectra at
the high-frequency end. The resonant frequencies have been assumed to remain
constant with changing wind speed. Work by Kepert for the DCCEE project (2011)
has indicated that this is the case for the dominant low-frequency peak.

The spectra from the cup anemometers, with a 3-second moving average filter, are
shown in Figure B4. The high-frequency end of the spectral density is truncated,
with more removed as the mean wind speed increases. This is not a good
characteristic for a definition of a wind gust associated with wind loads on
structures.

B5. Calculated correction factors

Correction factors for maximum gusts for various averaging times (i.e. 1 minute and
10 minutes) mean wind speeds and turbulence intensities, for the low-speed Dines
anemometer, high-speed Dines anemometer and 3-cup anemometer with 3-second
moving average filtering are shown in Tables B1, B2 and B3 respectively. The
averaging time of 60 seconds with lower turbulence intensity is more appropriate for
thunderstorm winds (Holmes et al. 2007). The 10-minute (600 seconds) averaging
time is more applicable to synoptic scale winds, including tropical cyclones.

The correction factors for both types of Dines anemometer (Tables B1 and B2) are
small, and insensitive to averaging time, mean wind speed and turbulence intensity.
The correction increments are generally less than 3% for the low-speed Dines, and
less than 1% for the high-speed version of the Dines.

The correction factors required for the gusts from cup anemometers, with 3-second
moving average filtering, as used by the Bureau of Meteorology since the mid-1990s,
are shown in Table B3. These range from 1.09 to 1.19, and are dependent on the
mean wind speed and turbulence intensity. The dependence on the mean wind
speed is not surprising, given that the moving average time is unchanged at 3
seconds for all wind speeds, and hence truncates more and more of the high
frequency end of the wind spectrum, as the wind speed increases, as shown in
Figures 4(a) and 4(b).
85
Table B1. Correction factors for maximum gusts from Low-speed Dines
anemometers
Mean wind
speed
Turbulence
intensity
Sample
time
(secs)
Avg. Gust
factor
(1m
2

area)
Max.
gust (m/s)
Avg. Gust
factor
(l.s. Dines)
Correction
factor
20 0.10 60 1.276 25.5 1.248 1.022
25 0.10 60 1.279 32.0 1.249 1.024
30 0.10 60 1.281 38.4 1.251 1.025
35 0.10 60 1.283 44.9 1.251 1.026
40 0.10 60 1.285 51.4 1.252 1.026
20 0.10 600 1.347 26.9 1.323 1.018
25 0.10 600 1.350 33.7 1.324 1.019
30 0.10 600 1.351 40.5 1.324 1.021
35 0.10 600 1.353 47.3 1.324 1.022
40 0.10 600 1.354 54.2 1.324 1.022
20 0.15 600 1.521 30.4 1.485 1.024
25 0.15 600 1.524 38.1 1.486 1.026
30 0.15 600 1.527 45.8 1.486 1.028
35 0.15 600 1.529 53.5 1.486 1.029
40 0.15 600 1.531 61.2 1.486 1.030
20 0.20 600 1.694 33.9 1.647 1.029
25 0.20 600 1.699 42.5 1.648 1.031
30 0.20 600 1.703 51.1 1.648 1.033
35 0.20 600 1.705 59.7 1.648 1.035


Table B2. Correction factors for maximum gusts from High-speed Dines
anemometers

Mean wind
speed
Turbulence
intensity
Sample
time
(secs)
Avg. Gust
factor
(1m
2

area)
Max.
gust (m/s)
Avg. Gust
factor
(hs. Dines)
Correction
factor
20 0.10 60 1.276 25.5 1.263 1.010
25 0.10 60 1.279 32.0 1.266 1.011
30 0.10 60 1.281 38.4 1.268 1.011
35 0.10 60 1.283 44.9 1.270 1.011
40 0.10 60 1.285 51.4 1.271 1.011
20 0.15 600 1.521 30.4 1.514 1.004
25 0.15 600 1.524 38.1 1.517 1.005
30 0.15 600 1.527 45.8 1.520 1.005
35 0.15 600 1.529 53.5 1.522 1.005
40 0.15 600 1.531 61.2 1.523 1.005
45 0.15 600 1.532 68.9 1.524 1.005
50 0.15 600 1.533 76.7 1.525 1.005
20 0.20 600 1.694 33.9 1.685 1.005
25 0.20 600 1.699 42.5 1.690 1.006
30 0.20 600 1.703 51.1 1.693 1.006
35 0.20 600 1.705 59.7 1.696 1.006
40 0.20 600 1.708 68.3 1.698 1.006
45 0.20 600 1.709 76.9 1.699 1.006
50 0.20 600 1.711 85.5 1.700 1.006


86


B6. Discussion and conclusions

The changeover in the early to mid 1990s from Dines anemometers to Automatic
Weather Systems has resulted in a significant step change in the peak gusts routinely
recorded by the Bureau of Meteorology, and supplied as maximum daily gusts by
the National Climate Centre. This change has required a re-assessment of the peak
gust used as a basis for the Australian/New Zealand Standard on Wind actions,
AS/NZS1170.2.

One option would be to switch the basis of the Standard to the 3-second gust based
on a moving average of that duration, currently being used by the Bureau. However,
this option has three disadvantages:

a) Existing regional wind speeds in the Standard would need to be reduced by
amounts of about 8 to 20%, depending on the region, together with
corresponding increases in shape factors of double those amounts to
compensate.
b) The Standard is based on a quasi-steady model of wind loading in which
pressure coefficients from a variety of wind-tunnel test results can be
adapted for use in the Standard. This model requires little, or no, correction
to the calculated wind loads for bodies with small frontal areas say from 1
to 5 square metres, if a gust of a short effective duration is used. However
the 3-second gust as defined by the WMO, requires a much larger frontal
area of more than 1000 square metres, for the quasi-steady assumption to
apply. Factors to increase the calculated loads would be required if they
were applied to smaller structures.
c) The use of a 3-second moving average, irrespective of the wind speed, has
undesirable effects on the apparent spectrum of turbulence as shown by
Figure 4, truncating larger and larger parts of the high-frequency end of the
spectrum, with this effect increasing with increasing wind speeds. This
would require special factors to be introduced for regions with higher design
wind speeds to compensate.

The alternative proposal presented here does not have any of the above
disadvantages and would preserve the existing format of the Standard used since
1971. Very small corrections, possibly considered as negligible, to the old data
recorded by the two types of Dines anemometers, would be required, (see Tables
B1 and B2).

The proposed new 1 square metre definition would require significant corrections
to the new maximum gust data emerging from the Automatic Weather Systems,
but this would only be required to be applied by those persons analyzing extreme
wind gust data for use with the Standard. However, a possible disadvantage,
perceived by some, would be a departure from the international standard
87
definition for a peak gust. Confusion might also arise for users who interpret on-
line gust data from the AWSs, without making the appropriate corrections.

B7. References

A.G. Davenport (1964), Note on the distribution of the largest value of a random
function with application to gust loading, Proc., Institution of Civil Engineers (U.K.),
Vol. 28, pp187-196.

A.C.M. Beljaars (1987), The measurement of gustiness at routine wind stations a
review, Instruments and Observing Methods Report, World Meteorological
Organization, No.31, W.M.O. Geneva.

J.D. Kepert (2011), Modelling the transient response of the Dines Anemometer,
Appendix II-5 in , Extreme windspeed baseline climate investigation project, Report
to the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, April 2011.

Standards Association of Australia (1971), SAA Loading Code. Part II: Wind forces, AS
CA34, Part II-1971, Standards Association of Australia, North Sydney.

Standards Association of Australia (1973), SAA Loading Code. Part 2: Wind forces,
AS1170.2-1973, Standards Association of Australia, North Sydney.

Standards Association of Australia (1989), SAA Loading Code. Part 2: Wind forces,
AS1170.2-1989, Standards Association of Australia, North Sydney.

Standards Australia (2011), Structural design actions. Part 2: Wind actions,
Australian-New Zealand Standard, AS/NZS1170.2:2011.

B.J. Vickery (1968), Load fluctuations in turbulent flow, ASCE, J. Eng. Mech. Div, Vol.
94, pp31-46.

H.E. Whittingham (1964), Extreme wind gusts in Australia, Bureau of Meteorology,
Bulletin No. 46.



88










0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10
Unfiltered spectrum
1 square metre
n.Su(n)/o
2
Frequency (Hertz)

0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10
Unfiltered spectrum
1 square metre
n.Su(n)/o
2
Frequency (Hertz)

(a) (b)


Figure B1. Spectral density of turbulent velocities, as filtered by the 1 m
2
sample
area.
(a) Mean wind speed = 20 m/s. (b) Mean wind speed = 40 m/s


89










0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10
Unfiltered spectrum
Dines anemometer -
low speed
n.Su(n)/o
2

0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10
Unfiltered spectrum
Dines anemometer -
low speed
n.Su(n)/o
2

(a) (b)


Figure B2. Spectral density of turbulent velocities, as recorded by a low-speed Dines
anemometer.
(a) Mean wind speed = 20 m/s. (b) Mean wind speed = 40 m/s






90










0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10
Unfiltered spectrum
Dines anemometer -
high speed
n.Su(n)/o
2

0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10
Unfiltered spectrum
Dines anemometer -
high speed
n.Su(n)/o
2

(a) (b)

Figure B3. Spectral density of turbulent velocities, as recorded by a high-speed Dines
anemometer.
(a) Mean wind speed = 20 m/s. (b) Mean wind speed = 40 m/s






















91










0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10
Unfiltered spectrum
Filtered cup anemometer
n.Su(n)/o
2
Frequency (Hertz)

0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10
Unfiltered spectrum
Filtered cup anemometer
n.Su(n)/o
2
Frequency (Hertz)

(a) (b)



Figure B4. Spectral density of turbulent velocities, as recorded by a cup anemometer
with 13m distance constant, plus 3-second moving averaging
(a) Mean wind speed = 20 m/s. (b) Mean wind speed = 40 m/s

92
APPENDIX C

WIND FIELD MODEL FOR CYCLONE YASI

C.1 Introduction

A report on structural damage from Yasi was published a few weeks after the event
by the Cyclone Testing Station of James Cook University (Boughton, et al., 2011).
This report (TR57) includes an analysis of the windfield generated by Yasi in relation
to distribution of the maximum wind gusts over land, primarily in the zone affected
by the strongest winds.

A revised model and predictions of maximum gusts at key locations is presented
herein. The main differences result from the separation of the 3-second moving
average gusts obtained from the automatic weather stations and the 1 square
metre gusts obtained from the analysis of road signs (windicators). The former is
the international standard for defining peak gusts proposed by the World
Meteorological Organization (Beljaars, 1987), and the latter is very close to that
recorded by Dines anemometers and currently the basis for the Australian Standard
for Wind Actions (Standards Australia, 2011).

The need to separate the gusts as above is a result of a project recently completed
for the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (DCCEE) (Ginger et al.,
2011) which identified differences between the two types of maximum gusts, of up
to 20% in cyclonic situations.

C2. The Holland model

Outside of the eye of a tropical cyclone, the wind speed at upper levels decays with
the radial distance from the storm centre. The gradient wind equation (Equation
(C1)) can be used to determine this wind speed:

r
p r
4
r f
2
r f
U
a
2 2
c
c

+ + = (C1)

where f is the Coriolis parameter (=2 O sin )
O is the angular velocity for the earths rotation (rad/sec)
is the angle of latitude
r is the radius from the storm centre

a
is the density of air
p is the atmospheric pressure
93

To apply Equation (1), it is necessary to establish a suitable function for the pressure
gradient. A commonly assumed expression is the following (Holland, 1980):

(C2)

where p
c
is the central pressure of the tropical cyclone
p
n
is the atmospheric pressure at the edge of the storm
A and B are scaling parameters

An earlier version of Equation (C2) with the B parameter fixed at 1.0 was proposed
by Myers (1957), and was, in fact, used by the author to estimate wind speeds at
Burketown during Cyclone Ted (Holmes, 1977).

The pressure difference (p
n
p
c
) can be written as Ap, and is an indication of the
strength of the storm.

Differentiating Equation (C2) and substituting in (C1), we have:


(C3)

This is an equation for the mean wind field at upper levels (gradient height) in a
tropical cyclone as a function of radius from the storm centre, r, the characteristic
parameters, A and B, the pressure drop across the cyclone, Ap and the Coriolis
parameter, f.

Near the centre of a tropical cyclone, the Coriolis forces, i.e. the first two terms in
Equations (1) and (2), are small, and it can be shown by differentiating the remaining
term that the maximum value of U occurs when r equals A
1/B
. Thus A
1/B
is to a good
approximation, the radius of maximum winds in the cyclone. The exponent B is
generally found to be in the range 1.0 to 2.5 (Holland, 1980).

C3. The Holland model as applied to Yasi

Equation (C3) requires a number of parameters to be provided:

- The central pressure of the cyclone, p
c
. In this case, it was taken as 930 hPa,
based on the measurement at Clump Point, close to the point of landfall of
Cyclone Yasi.
- The ambient pressure, far from the centre of the cyclone, p
n
. In this case, an
average value of barometric pressure well before the cyclone made landfall
was used. Thus at 3 a.m. on February 2, the barometric pressures at Cairns,
Townsville, Lucinda Point and South Johnstone were respectively: 1006 hPa,
|
.
|

\
|

=

B
c n
c
r
A
exp
p p
p p
)
r
A
exp(
r
AB

p
4
r f
2
r f
U
B B
a
2 2
+ + =
94
1008 hPa, 1007 hPa and 1007 hPa. An average value of 1007 hPa was used
for p
n
.
- The radius of maximum winds, r
max
. This is somewhat greater than half the
diameter of the eye as visible from radar (estimated as 30 nautical miles, or
50 kilometres) and a value of 32.5 kilometres was estimated for r
max
.
- Holland B parameter. A value of B of 1.7 was used in the original modelling
of Cyclone Yasi winds (Boughton et al., 2011) however in the revised
model a reduced value of 1.2 was found to give the best fit to the recorded
maximum gusts, as discussed in the following section.

Table C1 gives the lowest recorded values of barometric pressure at eight locations
during the event. Figure C1 compares these values with Equation (C2) with values of
p
c
, p
n
, A and B given above. Good agreement is seen; this together with the
calibration against the recorded maximum wind gusts as described following gives
general validity to the modelling approach adopted.

Table C1.
Recorded minimum barometric pressures and approximate distances from the
cyclone centre



Location
Pressure
(hPa)
Radial distance, r
(km)
Clump Point 930 ~ 0
South Johnstone 955 30
East Innisfail 967 40
Holmes Reef 969 60
Flinders Reef 976 75
Lucinda Point 980 77.5
Cairns 983 100
Townsville 993 170


Equation (C3) is an equation for the gradient wind, and requires factors to convert
this to a 10-minute mean wind speed at 10 metres height, and a gust factor to
convert the latter to a 3-second gust. There is also a change in direction from the
gradient to the surface wind, towards the low-pressure centre of the cyclone.

In the present case, the ratio of 10-minute mean winds to gradient wind was taken
as 0.7, and the gust factor was taken as 1.4 for overland winds and 1.3 for overwater
winds for the 3-second gusts, and 1.65 and 1.55 respectively for the 1 square metre
gusts. The wind direction at the surface was adjusted by an inflow angle of 30
degrees clockwise.

Once a cyclone makes landfall, there is an immediate weakening in strength as the
eye collapses. This continues progressively as the storm moves further inland. In the
95
case of the modelling of Cyclone Yasi, the weakening factors in Table C2 were
applied to the wind speeds, as a function of the distance of the centre of the storm
from landfall.

Table C2. Weakening factors after landfall

Distance from
landfall (km)
Weakening factor
0 1.0
10 0.90
20 0.875
30 0.85
40 0.83

The factors in Table C2 are based on data from land falling U.S. hurricanes analyzed
by Kaplan and de Maria (1995 and 2001).

Outside the radius of maximum winds, the vortex gradient winds produced by the
Holland model were summed vectorially with a forward motion component, taken as
10 m/s (36 km/h) in a direction 24 degrees south of west, based on observations of
radar and satellite images of Yasi.

C4. Calibration of the wind field model

Figure C2 shows a cross plot of the peak gusts from the model wind field against the
measured values, with the latter consisting of a combination of anemometer
readings, and averages of upper and lower limits from non-failed and failed road
signs, or windicators (this technique is discussed in detail in Boughton et al., 2011).

All the values used in the calibration are shown in Table C3, including two readings
from reef anemometers close to the approach track. All gusts have been corrected
to 10 metres height in open terrain.

Good correlation is seen in Figure C2, with a correlation coefficient of 0.88, and a
slope very close to 1.0, indicating no systematic bias in the model. This was achieved
by adjustment of the B parameter in Equation (3) to obtain the best fit.

The model shows an underestimation of the maximum gusts at Tully, and an
overestimation at Cardwell, compared with the measured values derived from the
windicators. Both of these differences may be a result of topographic effects with
channelling between Mount Tyson and Mount Mackay producing an increase at Tully
for north and south winds, and shielding from Hinchinbrook Island reducing gusts
from easterly winds at Cardwell.
96


























* average of upper and lower limits from road signs
+
corrected for terrain, height and topography

C5. Reproduction of wind speed and direction histories

Histories of wind gusts and directions with time, and the position of the cyclone,
were obtained by locating the centre of the cyclone at 10 kilometre intervals along
its track, and evaluating the vectorial sum of the vortex speed and the forward speed
of the storm. Nine positions of the storm were used spanning 40 kilometres before
and after the landfall, and a total time of more than two hours.

Figures C3, C4 and C5 compare the calculated histories with measured values from
four automatic weather stations on land for which recorded values were available at
intervals of 15-30 minutes. For the graphs a coast crossing time of 12.45 am on
February 3
rd
was assumed, and times for the other positions of the centre of the
cyclone were estimated assuming a forward speed of 36 km/h (10 m/s).

The comparisons of maximum gusts (km/h) in Figure C3 are generally good; this is
perhaps not surprising as the maximum gusts from these stations, together with the
windicator estimates, were use to optimize the model parameters. The

Table C3
Location Recorded
gust (m/s)*
1 sq. m.
Recorded
gust (m/s)
3 sec.
Predicted
gust (m/s)
1 sq. m.
Predicted
gust (m/s)
3 sec.
Mourilyan 47.5 51.6
Tully-Birkala 62.5 51.6
Cardwell 58 65.1
Kurrimine 50.5 56.5
S. Mission Beach 63 60
El Arish 50 51.5
Silkwood 50 51.1
Halifax-Macknade 45.5 50.3
Bingil Bay 55 56.9
Kennedy 59 58.1
Dallachy-Bilyana 50 57.2
South Johnstone 43.5
+
43.8
Cairns 25.8 22.7
Townsville 37.5 30.7
Lucinda Point 45.9
+
46.8
East Innisfail 43.3
+
35.3
Holmes Reef 40.3 33.2
Flinders Reef 43.9 47.9

97
measurements for Townsville indicate greater wind speeds after the eye of the
cyclone made landfall; this feature was not reproduced by the model which
incorporates weakening after landfall.

Figure C4 compares predicted 10-minute mean wind speeds with measured values
from the same four stations. Agreement is quite good for South Johnstone,
Townsville and Cairns, although the increase in wind speeds post landfall at
Townsville is again not reproduced. Agreement is less good for Lucinda Point. In
that case, the anemometer is poorly sited near the top of a 30 metre high shed at
the end of the jetty. No information is available to reliably correct the readings for
the position of the anemometer, although a correction was made for its height
above the sea surface; however, it is likely that the 10-minute mean wind speeds
were more affected by the siting than were the gusts.

Wind directions are compared in Figure C5 (except for Lucinda Point, for which the
direction vane appeared to malfunction). The agreement is good at Townsville.
Although the general trend with time is similar, the predicted values at South
Johnstone and Cairns are lower than the recorded values. The measured directions
at South Johnstone and Cairns appear to indicate significantly greater inflow angles
than the 30 degrees assumed in the model. Local topography may also have
influenced the wind directions at the measurement stations.

C6. Predicted maximum gusts at selected locations

Table C4 shows the predicted maximum gusts, in kilometres per hour, produced by
the revised model, and those shown in TR57 (Boughton et al., 2011). In the latter
case, no distinction was made between the 3-second averaged and 1-square metre
gusts.

If the new 1 square metre gusts are compared with the previous values, the
predicted maxima are largely unchanged at Tully, Mission Beach, Kurrimine and
Bingil Bay. There is a small increase at Cardwell, and larger increases at Lucinda and
Abergowrie. The predicted maximum gust at Innisfail is reduced slightly from the
previous value.

The maximum 1-square metre gusts anywhere in the event at 10-metres height,
without any topographic effects is predicted to be 234 km/h (at Cardwell). However
the maximum 3-second gust is predicted to have been just under 200 km/h (also at
Cardwell).


98
C7. Conclusions

A re-analysis of the overland wind field model for Yasi has produced maximum
gusts applicable to AS/NZS1170.2 (i.e. 1 square metre gusts) that are generally
similar to those given previously in TR57 (Boughton, et al., 2011), although increases
have occurred at locations to the south of the coast crossing point.

The approach used has been validated by comparisons with recorded barometric
pressures, and with time histories of wind speeds and directions at four automatic
weather stations. Comparisons of the predicted variation of wind speeds, both 3-
second gusts and ten-minute means, during the event, with the recorded values
from South Johnstone, Lucinda Point, Townsville and Cairns are favourable. Good
agreement was achieved between modelled and measured wind directions at
Townsville. Less good agreement between modelled and measured wind directions
at South Johnstone and Cairns was obtained, indicating greater inflow angles than
are assumed in the model.

The maximum gust anywhere in the event is now estimated to be 234 km/h, at 10
metres height over flat, open terrain about 94% of the design value for most
buildings in Region C in AS/NZS1170.2.

However, predicted 3-second moving-average gusts are 18-19% lower than the 1
square metre values, and do not exceed 200 kilometres per hour.

Table C4. Predicted maximum gust at selected centres



















Location Predicted
gust (km/h)
TR57 model
New
predicted
gust (km/h)
1 sq. m.
New
predicted
gust (km/h)
3 sec.
Abergowrie 161 183 155
Bingil Bay 199 205 172
Cardwell 226 234 197
Dunk Island 204 214 172
El Arish 187 185 157
Ingham 143 172 146
Innisfail 157 150 127
Kurrimine 201 203 171
Lucinda 170 201 168
Mission Beach 204 205 172
Mourilyan 188 186 158
S. Mission Beach 214 216 181
Tully 187 186 158
Tully Heads 218 222 186

99
C8. References

A.C.M. Beljaars (1987), The measurement of gustiness at routine wind stations a
review, Instruments and Observing Methods Report, World Meteorological
Organization, No.31, W.M.O. Geneva, 1987.

G.N. Boughton and nine others (2011), Tropical Cyclone Yasi structural damage to
buildings, James Cook University, Cyclone Testing Station, CTS Technical Report 57,
April.

J.D. Ginger and six others (2011), Extreme windspeed baseline climate investigation
report, A report for Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, James
Cook University - Cyclone Testing Station, Bureau of Meteorology, Geoscience
Australia, JDH Consulting, April.

G.J. Holland (1980), A analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes,
Monthly Weather Review, Vol.108, pp 1212-1218.

J.D. Holmes (1977), Report on structural damage at Burketown after Cyclone Ted
19/12/76, James Cook University, Wind Engineering Report, 1/77, April.

J. Kaplan and M. de Maria (1995), A simple empirical model for predicting the decay
of tropical cyclone winds after landfall, Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 34,
pp2499-2512.

J. Kaplan and M. de Maria (2001), On the decay of tropical cyclone winds after
landfall in the New England area, Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 40, pp 280-
286.

V.A. Myers (1957), Maximum hurricane winds, Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, Vol. 38, pp 227-228.

Standards Australia, Structural design actions. Part 2: Wind actions, Australian-New
Zealand Standard, AS/NZS1170.2:2011.
100






920
940
960
980
1000
1020
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
P
r
e
s
s
u
r
e

a
t

s
e
a

l
e
v
e
l

(
h
P
a
)
Radial distance from centre (km)



Figure C1. Comparison of recorded barometric pressures (Table C1) with Eq.(C2)
with A = 65.2 km and B = 1.2
101
y = 1.0015x
R = 0.7693
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
m
o
d
e
l

g
u
s
t

s
p
e
e
d



(
m
/
s
)



Figure C2. Cross-plot of measured and predicted maximum gust speeds
102
0
50
100
150
200
-40 -20 0 20 40
Measured
Predictions
Distance from landfall (km)
3
-
s
e
c


g
u
s
t

w
i
n
d

s
p
e
e
d


(
k
m
/
h
)
South Johnstone

0
50
100
150
200
-40 -20 0 20 40
Measured
Predictions
Distance from landfall (km)
3
-
s
e
c


g
u
s
t

w
i
n
d

s
p
e
e
d


(
k
m
/
h
)
Lucinda Point

0
50
100
150
200
-40 -20 0 20 40
Measured
Predictions
Distance from landfall (km)
3
-
s
e
c


g
u
s
t

w
i
n
d

s
p
e
e
d


(
k
m
/
h
)
Townsville

0
50
100
150
200
-40 -20 0 20 40
Measured
Predictions
Distance from landfall (km)
3
-
s
e
c


g
u
s
t

w
i
n
d

s
p
e
e
d


(
k
m
/
h
)
Cairns


Figure C3. Comparison of measured and modelled maximum 3-second (moving
average) gusts
103
0
50
100
150
-40 -20 0 20 40
Measured
Predictions
Distance from landfall (km)
1
0
-
m
i
n


m
e
a
n


w
i
n
d

s
p
e
e
d


(
k
m
/
h
)
South Johnstone

0
50
100
150
-40 -20 0 20 40
Measured
Predictions
Distance from landfall (km)
1
0
-
m
i
n


m
e
a
n


w
i
n
d

s
p
e
e
d


(
k
m
/
h
)
Lucinda Point

0
50
100
150
-40 -20 0 20 40
Measured
Predictions
Distance from landfall (km)
1
0
-
m
i
n


m
e
a
n


w
i
n
d

s
p
e
e
d


(
k
m
/
h
)
Townsville

0
50
100
150
-40 -20 0 20 40
Measured
Predictions
Distance from landfall (km)
1
0
-
m
i
n


m
e
a
n


w
i
n
d

s
p
e
e
d


(
k
m
/
h
)
Cairns


Figure C4. Comparison of measured and modelled 10-minute mean wind speeds
104
0
90
180
270
360
-40 -20 0 20 40
Measured
Predictions
Distance from landfall (km)
w
i
n
d

d
i
r
e
c
t
i
o
n

(
d
e
g
)
South Johnstone


0
90
180
270
360
-40 -20 0 20 40
Lucinda Point
Predictions
Distance from landfall (km)
w
i
n
d

d
i
r
e
c
t
i
o
n

(
d
e
g
)


0
90
180
270
360
-40 -20 0 20 40
Measured
Predictions
Distance from landfall (km)
w
i
n
d

d
i
r
e
c
t
i
o
n

(
d
e
g
)
Townsville


0
90
180
270
360
-40 -20 0 20 40
Measured
Predictions
Distance from landfall (km)
w
i
n
d

d
i
r
e
c
t
i
o
n

(
d
e
g
)
Cairns


Figure C5. Comparison of measured and modelled wind directions
105

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS


The support of Dr. Lam Pham and Mr. Brian Ashe of the Australian Building Codes
Board during this project is gratefully acknowledged.

The interest and advice from the members of the 2008 Steering Committee are also
acknowledged:

Michael Syme (CSIRO)
Fabio Finocchiaro (Northern Territory Administration)
Nabil Yazdani (Western Australia Administration)
Lance Glare (Queensland Administration)
Cam Leitch (Cyclone Testing Station, James Cook University)
Jeff Kepert (Bureau of Meteorology)
Bob Cechet (Geoscience Australia)
Sergio Detoffi (Standards Australia)

The author also gratefully acknowledges the assistance and free sharing of
information given by the following persons in face-to-face meetings, telephone calls
or e-mails during the course of the project:

Debbie Abbs (CSIRO)
Craig Arthur (Geoscience Australia)
Bob Cechet (Geoscience Australia)
Jeff Kepert (BoM)
Yuri Kuleshov (BoM)
Mark Leplastrier (Insurance Australia Group)
Neville Nicholls (Monash University)
Kevin Walsh (University of Melbourne)

The author also acknowledges ongoing discussions over several years with Dr. Bruce
Harper (GHD) on various aspects of tropical cyclones, including the Dvorak method
and the Holland model.