WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.

COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

17-Mar-09 SO LONG…
At last some good news. Bernanke said he would not make tax payers pay the bill but rather print additional money to make up for the
billions spent to bail out the banks, insurers, mortgage lenders and other entities. He pointed out that this would not be a problem given
the current weak economy and low inflation. Once the economy begins to recover, then officials will raise interest rates and reduce the
supply of money to make sure we have a recovery that does not involve inflation. The good thing about this being that for sure, given the
unlimited budget to succeed, the US economy will be on track rather quickly, which equity indices understood and at last started to
believe in.
The AIG refund to banks is a very positive move , and some early signs that the huge stimulus is reaching the real economy. The cash
paid to AIG's so-called counter parties was used to cover collateral payments, cancel derivatives contracts and meet obligations at its
securities lending business. This goes the right way in order to get the banks to increase lending, and unfreeze the all worldwide
economy. We may end up in getting some reverse write downs, which will at last send the current gloomy vicious circle into a virtuous
one.
Macro data are encouraging. After the better Retail Sales data and stabilizing confidence surveys, the 1.4% m/m decline in industrial
production in February was actually better than it looks because almost half that decline was due to a weather-related dip in utilities
output, which fell by 7.7%. It was unseasonably warm across much of the country last month, reducing demand for heating. Motor vehicle
output actually rebounded by 10.2% last month, reversing some of the massive 24.7% decline in the month before. (Some of the vehicle
production plants that were temporarily mothballed in January were started up again.)
Many companies have cautiously built up cash reserves over the past year, and with many stocks at 12-year lows, some are now
ready to use it. The market is offering a lot of opportunities in terms of M&A, such as last week deal was picturing. We could see M&A
pick up, just because a lot of market capitalizations have been shaved. And with some in the market now expecting that stocks have hit or
are near their bear-market lows, an M&A resurgence could go a long way to help fuel a rebound. Taking protective measures amid the
crisis and the recession, U.S. firms took "dramatic" action through 2008 to preserve cash, according to Moody's Analytics. Not only did
dividends after years of explosive growth turn negative, but also share buybacks fell by more than half, to $395 billion in 2008 from $831
billion in 2007.
Those firms with the strongest cash positions are to be found in the health-care and technology sectors, where borrowing and spending
have been curbed back for a while. Out of a total of $628 billion in cash positions for S&P 500 firms, more than a third, or $224 billion, is in
the information technology sector, according to Standard & Poor's. Next up is health care, with $143 billion.
Not telling things are great, just saying the current equity levels , combined to the efficient back-up from the Fed and the Treasury, at
a time when the killing earnings season is ending, as well as most of the selling flow from the deleverage, is making the current rebound
probably a lasting one. Need to break the 2080 area on the Eurostoxx to confirm a long and lasting 100% upside rally. So long ...
WTI €/$ $/¥ 10 yr US 10 yr Euro Basic Energy Financ Health Tech Tel Indus Utilities SOX S&P NAS DOW Close

Last 47,2 1,2989 98,54 2,96 3,15 0,40 0,78 4,11 -1,24 -1,79 -0,37 0,68 2,31 -3,61 -0,35 -1,92 -0,10 US
Perf 1d % 5,45 0,17 -0,37 0,37 bp 8,6 bp 2,87 1,89 -2,94 1,47 0,84 1,27 2,82 3,53 -0,15 -0,75 -0,98 -0,60 Europe
ECONOMIC DATA with impact
ECB’s Trichet (7.15 GMT) speaking on lessons from the financial crisis
German Zew index (10.00 GMT) may show sentiment improving further / minor
PPI (12.30 GMT) expected +0.4% / ex food & energy +0.1% / is unlikely, once more, to confirm any deflationary threat / interesting
Housing Starts & Building permits (12.30 GMT) expected 450k & 500k / may show that the decline in housing activity has moderated /
interesting
POSITIVE IMPACTS
BAYER Schering Pharma started selling its Xarelto anticoagulant drug in Singapore, HK & Australia + expects to get regulatory approval
for the drug in other Asia countries soon / Sees Asia revenue to grow high double digit / Said it R&D pipeline is strong
VOLKSWAGEN : The Premier of Lower Saxony will meet with Toyota President on Wednesday and will discuss ways the companies can
cooperate in technology (Handelsblatt)
STAN. CHARTERED had a strong start to 2009 / Confortable with K ratios / Looking at acquisitions in Asia & Mideast but not a key driver
HSBC : Ping An Insurance said it will participate in HSBC's £12.5 bn rights issue / CEO does not see the bottom yet but has a “good
feeling” the rebound will come by end 2009…
COMMERZBANK forecasts an operating profit for its medium-size business unit as higher risk surcharges compensate for a decline
in its credit business / Expects its interest surplus of about €1.3bn to increase by as much as 7% this year (board member)
VODAFONE and TELEFONICA are considering pooling their networks all over the world with the aim of reducing costs (Expansion)
WIENERBERGER : FY sales €2.4bn (2.43bn exp) / Ebitda €440m (434m exp) / No capital increase planned but will not pay out 2008
dividend in order to strengthen liquidity position / 2009 will be difficult but liquidity and financing secured
FRIENDS PROVIDENT : FY EEV profit £420m (384m exp) / Final dividend of 2.6p per share bringing FY dividend per share to
3.9 pence / Surplus remains strong, estimated at £0.8bn at the end of February 2009
OLD MUTUAL : Nedbank group, the 55%-owned South African banking subsidiary of Old Mutual announced the appointment of Mike
Brown as chief executive officer designate
NEGATIVE IMPACTS
ARCELOR MITTAL will be closely watched after that ALCOA’s announcements yesterday & after rumours yesterday that it would have
hired JPM & DBK to co-ordinate a right issue valued at about €5bn
AXA Asia Pacific (owned at 53% by AXA) is seeking to raise at least A$660m by selling shares to bolster capital sapped by investment
losses / Axa Pacific will offer 175.4m shares to institutional investors at A$2.85 each, an 11% discount to the last traded price…
BULGARI : CFO resigned
RDSA is to scrap its share buyback programme and more than double its debt this year as it struggles to maintain its spending
commitments in the face of a collapse in the price of crude (Analysts cited in The Times)
RIO TINTO said that the slump in commodities demand will continue to have a material adverse impact on its business and its financial
results / It sees China GDP growth slow further in 2009 / The CEO added that Rio was ahead of target to deliver Alcan synergies
DEUTSCHE TEL. : German telecoms watchdog plans to auction more UMTS frequencies in 2009 as well as radio frequencies (Die Welt)
AEROPORT DE PARIS said February traffic fell 8.1% to 5.6m passengers from year-earlier levels
AVIVA may suspend lending shares to hedge funds and has discussed with other European insurers a proposal to end the practice (FT)
ENEL : S&P's said its 'A-' long-term credit rating remains on watch with negative implications, following Enel’s 2013 strategic plan

ALCOA expects to report a Q1 net loss + announced actions to improve the cost structure & liquidity ($2.4bn / year) = a dividend cut
from $0.17 to $0.03 per share + reduction in capex + a public offering of common stock and convertible notes of $1.1 bn
 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

17-Mar-09 SO LONG…
RESULTS DIVIDENDS EVENTS
Today Cimport cimentos / Mediaset / Adobe / Goldman Sachs
Baloise / BMW / Unicredit / Inditex / Lanxess / FedEx / Oracle / Land Securities (GBp 16.50) / HSBC ($ 0.111111) / Standard Life
Wednesday HP AGM
General Mills / Nike (GBp 8.555556) / Swiss Re (CHF 0.10)
Thursday Hermes / Prudential / Aegis / HeidelbergCement Novo Nordisk (DKK 6.00)
Friday Generali / Intesa San Paolo / Alleanza Assicurazioni HSBC rights issue 5 per 12 Iberdrola AGM
Monday Synthes (CHF 1.10) /
TRADING IDEAS
BUY BAYER / PHILIPS / ACCOR / AIR FRANCE / LAFARGE / SANTANDER / BBVA on reversal Head & Shoulder possibility
BUY BP / TOTAL / ENI to play oil
BUY SANOFI / SAP on double bottom possibility still

BUY SANTANDER / SELL DBK // BUY BAYER / SELL BASF / BUY METRO / SELL AHOLD // BUY ALLIANZ / SELL AEGON
BROKER METEOROLOGY
HSBC............................................ RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM SELL ........................................................... BY GOLDMAN SACHS
TESCO .........................................RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT ...................................................................... BY MORGAN STANLEY
XSTRATA ....................................RAISED TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL ...................................................................................... BY UBS
HEINEKEN ..................................RAISED TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL ...................................................................................... BY UBS
VINCI ...........................................RAISED TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL .............................................................. BY GOLDMAN SACHS
CISCO .........................................ADDED TO CONVICTION BUY LIST ............................................................ BY GOLDMAN SACHS
ABB ..............................................RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD ....................................................................... BY DEUTSCHE BANK

VIVENDI .......................................CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT FROM OVERWEIGHT ........................................ BY MORGAN STANLEY

PLEASE FIND BELOW ON THE NEXT PAGE OUR MORNING ECO

 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

17-Mar-09 SO LONG…
CHART OF THE DAY
U.S. capacity utilization % of total capacity
Since 1967

90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09

Source : Federal Reserve

The amount of U.S. factory capacity in use slumped to 70.9% in February matching the lowest level on record in 1982.

ECONOMIC DATA
Time Country Indicator Period GE forecasts Consensus Previous
6.00 GMT Japan Machine tool orders (final) February -83,9% YoY
9.30 GMT United Kingdom DCLG house prices March -11,7% YoY -10,2 % YoY
10.00 GMT Germany ZEW survey (economic sentiment) March - 5,0 -8,0 -5,8
10.00 GMT Germany ZEW survey (current situation) March -90 -86,2
10.00 GMT euro area ZEW survey (economic sentiment) March -12,0 -8,7
12.30 GMT United-States Producer price February 0,4%,-1,4% YoY 0,4%,-1,4% YoY 0,8%,-1,0%YoY
12.30 GMT United-States Producer price core (ex food and energy) February 0,1%,+3,8%YoY 0,4%,+4,2% YoY
12.30 GMT United-States Housing starts February 470 000 450 000 466 000
12.30 GMT United-States Building permits February 540 000 500 000 531 000
21.00 GMT United-States ABC consumer confidence March 15 th -48 -48

Inde x e s P rice % 5 D a ys Ytd Forex Price % 5 Days Ytd

DJIA 7217,0 10,35% - 17,77% EUR/USD 1,3003 2,61% -6,86%
S&P 500 753,9 11,51% - 16,54% EUR/JPY 128,39 -2,60% 1,37%
Nas daq 1404,0 10,70% - 10,97% USD/JPY 98,74 -0,05% 8,18%
CA C 40 2791,7 10,81% - 13,25% Oil Price % 5 Days Ytd
DA X 4044,5 9,55% - 15,92% Brent $/b 44,5 1,67% 6,59%
Eur os tox x 50 2033,7 12,36% - 16,91% Gold Price % 5 Days Ytd
DJ 600 173,2 9,83% - 12,69% Gold $/oz 918,8 2,34% 4,21%
FTSE 100 3864,0 9,33% - 12,86% Rates USA Euro Japan
Nikkei 7949,1 8,72% - 10,28% Central Banks* 0,25 1,50 0,09
Shanghai Comp 2212,5 1,63% 21,52% Overnight 0,20 0,70 0,09
Sens ex ( India) 8998,1 9,10% - 6,73% 3 Months 0,23 0,70 0,25
MICEX ( Rus s ia) 762,8 10,73% 23,12% 10 Y ears** 2,97 3,15 1,31
Bov es pa ( Bras il) 38607,2 5,08% 2,82% *US: Fed Funds; Jap: Overnight; Euro: Ref i
** Euro: German Bund rate So urc e : B lo o m berg
 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

17-Mar-09 SO LONG…
ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW
Watch in the United-States the release of the producer price index for February due at 12.30 GMT, expected to slightly increase
since last month led by the small rise of energy prices, meanwhile producer prices will still decline from a year ago, Watch as well in
the United-States the release of the housing starts and of the building permit for February due at 12.30 GMT and expected to
slightly increase led by the drop of houses prices.

Watch in Germany the release of the ZEW (economic sentiment) for March due at 10.00 GMT and expected to remained weak but
stable since last month./JB

ECONOMY

UNITED-STATES : INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FELL IN FEBRUARY AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION MATCH THE LOWEST LEVEL ON RECORD
Industrial production fell in February of 1.4% for the fourth consecutive month, half of the decline was due to the dip in utilities which
fell by 7.7%. Otherwise output at factories, mines and utilities dropped 1.4% last month which is more than forecast, overall
manufacturing output fell by a fourth month low of 0.7% and output of business equipment fell by another 1.3% last month following a
4.2% drop in January suggesting that business investment will be very weak again at the first quarter. On the other hand motor
vehicle rebounded by 10.2% last month reversing the 24.7% massive decline the month before. The drop of industrial production
remained quite logical as the manufacturing ISM was very weak in February (35.8)and as the domestic demand hit by the credit
crunch and the foreign demand hit by the global economic downturn remained very weak. Nevertheless it must be noticed that
industry account only for 13% of the GDP in the United-States versus 17% in France,20% in the euro zone and 24% in Germany.
Meanwhile the amount of U.S. factory capacity in use slumped to 70.9% in February matching the lowest level on record in 1982.

EURO AREA : INFLATION SLIGHTLY ROSE IN FEBRUARY

As forecasted inflation slightly increased in Europe in February at 1.2% from a year ago (prior 1.1%).After its peak at 4.0% in July
2008 when the level of the barrel was at $147, inflation in the euro area decreased every month since then led by the drop of
commodities and energy prices. The slight increase of energy prices in February widely explained the end of this drop trend.
Nevertheless the inflation in Europe remained close to a 10 year low. Monthly prices increased from -0.8% in December to + 0.4% in
January led as well by the slight drop of energy prices in February. It must be noticed that the rise of inflation will not last and the euro
area will shortly face a deflation situation. Meanwhile European payrolls shrank 0.3% in the fourth quarter from the previous three
months, this is the second quarterly contraction and the biggest decline since the creation of this statistic./JB
 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

17-Mar-09 SO LONG…
VIXindex: impliedvolatilityontheS&P500 $Libor -3-Month(InterbankRate)
6
85
80 5,5
75
5
70
65 4,5
60
55 4
50
3,5
45
40 3
35
30 2,5
25
20 2
15 1,5
10
5 1
19/03/2007 19/09/2007 19/03/2008 19/09/2008 19/03/2009 19/03/2007 19/09/2007 19/03/2008 19/09/2008 19/03/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

UnitedStates : 10-year Treasuryyield 10-year Treasury spreadUSA-Eurozone

5,5 1,2
5,25 1
5
0,8
4,75
0,6
4,5
4,25 0,4
4 0,2
3,75
0
3,5
3,25 -0,2
3 -0,4
2,75
-0,6
2,5
2,25 -0,8

2 -1
19/03/2007 19/09/2007 19/03/2008 19/09/2008 19/03/2009 19/03/2007 19/09/2007 19/03/2008 19/09/2008 19/03/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

Oil : Brent ($/b) Forex: Eurovs Dollar (EUR/USD)

150 1,65
140
1,6
130
1,55
120
110 1,5
100
1,45
90
1,4
80
70 1,35
60
1,3
50
40
1,25

30 1,2
19/03/2007 19/09/2007 19/03/2008 19/09/2008 19/03/2009 19/03/2007 19/09/2007 19/03/2008 19/09/2008 19/03/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg