Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 01, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 01, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Punjab heads towards acute storage problem
Wheat crop in Punjab and Haryana is near maturity stage and we expect harvesting to start within a couple of weeks.Wheat production in Punjab is expected to touch 16.15 mt while Haryana may contribute12.4 mt in total production this year. The govt. has set the procurement target at 14 and 8.6 mt respectively for this year. Higher procurement target for this year may cause shortage of acute storage space as godowns are not fully vacated so far. At this point of time Punjab can store only 6 mt wheat from new crop while the target is 14 mt. It would be difficult to move grains from Punjab to other states at this point of time. Shortage of gunny bags too remains the cause of concern. There is a need of more than 50 crore gunny bags to store the upcoming grain safely but there are no more than 15 crore bags available in the state. Wheat procurement in Punjab and Haryana is set to start from 1st of April while it has already started in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh too are expected to contribute more wheat this season. Total wheat production this year may be around 94 mt, slightly lower (84.9 mt) than last year. (Source: Agriwatch)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on March 28, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18836 5683 54.29 97.23 1595

0.70 0.73 -0.36 0.92 -0.06

0.23 0.42 -0.30 5.17 -1.18

-0.14 -0.18 -0.16 5.63 1.08

10.01 9.39 6.90 -7.76 -3.81

.Source: Reuters

U.S. forecast for ample corn stocks slam old-crop futures

A U.S. government report on Thursday showing a surprisingly large amount of corn stored by farmers and commercial grain firms deflated a big price premium built into the front end of the Chicago Board of Trade corn futures markets. CBOT July futures, which reflect the value of last year's corn crop, dropped the 40-cent limit while December futures and prices for the U.S. corn crop about to be planted fell 30 cents. Before the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its quarterly grain stocks report at midday, many traders had bet that it would forecast a historically low U.S. stockpile of corn. This prompted traders to buy the old-crop July contract and sell the new-crop December contract prior to the report's release. But USDA reported March 1 corn stocks at 5.399 billion bushels, nearly 400 million more than most traders had expected, leading them to reverse so-called "spread" positions by selling July contracts and buying December corn. (Source: Reuters)

Brazil grains waterway shut after barge hits pylon

Brazil's Tiete-Parana waterway has been shut down after a barge carrying grain swerved off course and hit an electricity pylon, the Navy and the state-managed waterway's administration, Ahrana, told Reuters on Thursday. Navy Captain Marcio Costa Lima told Reuters the waterway had been closed as a safety precaution, and that power lines were expected to be removed by April 3. "As soon as the (engineering) company finishes its work, we will open the waterway again immediately," Costa Lima said. Nearby soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade turned higher on Thursday due in part to reports of the accident. Sao Paulo state's transport secretariat said five barges carrying a total of 30,000 tonnes of soy were queuing up to get past the point of the accident, which dragged electricity cables into the water which were immediately shut off. (Source: Reuters)

Egypt to get help from US, European wheat exporters

Egypt will receive payment facilities from American and European suppliers of wheat, an Egyptian newspaper on Saturday quoted minister of supplies Bassem Ouda as saying, as the world's biggest wheat importer struggles to pay for imports.Two years of turmoil since the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak has badly hit an economy starved of tourism revenues and with a depreciating currency. "American and European exporters of wheat will provide payment facilities to Egypt to import wheat during a period of up to nine months," Ouda told Al-Shorouk newspaper. He did not say whether Egypt would be given a full ninemonth window to pay or whether payments would be divided over nine months. A ministry official who asked not to be named said on Saturday the minister did not want to reveal the details of the deal "to protect the interests of Egypt". He said Egypt also wanted to reach agreements with non-U.S. or European suppliers. Russia is also a major supplier. (Source:
Reuters)

Global food prices fall on lower demand, improved supplies World Bank
Global food prices have declined in recent months as lower demand for cereals and improved supplies pushed prices down, the World Bank said on Wednesday, warning that prices were still near record peaks and volatile. The World Bank's Food Price Index showed international prices of wheat fell by 11 percent, sugar by 10 percent and maize, or corn, by 6 percent during the four-month period between October 2012 and February 2013. The poverty-fighting institution said lower demand from a sharp fall in the use of wheat feed and declines in corn consumption for ethanol in the United States has pushed prices down. Favorable weather conditions in some regions have also raised hopes of better crop supply for 2013. However, global food prices remain only 9 percent below the all-time high recorded in August 2012, the World Bank said. "This means that despite sustained declines, international food prices remain very high and still close to their historical peaks," the World Bank said. (Source:
Reuters)

Thailand approves $3.6 bln budget in rice intervention scheme

Thailand's cabinet has approved a 105 billion baht ($3.59 billion) budget to buy 7 million tonnes of paddy rice, as part of its rice intervention scheme for the 2012/13 production year, a government official said on Sunday. The buying period for off-season rice was set from Feb. 1 to Sept. 15, 2013, government spoksman Tossaporn Serirak Tossaporn said, adding rice less than 110 days old would not be accepted in the scheme. "The budget will be part of the 410 billion baht scheme the government approved on September 13, 2011," told reporters. Thailand intervenes in the rice market each year to support millions of farmers, but the scheme launched in October 2011 guaranteed prices so generous that they have caused huge stockpiles, hit exports and strained finances. (Source: Reuters)

China keeps state cotton reserve sales volume steady

China, the world's top cotton consumer, will offer 69,971 tonnes of cotton from state reserves on Monday, with daily volumes almost unchanged from its offer in the previous sale, said the state-owned China National Cotton Reserves Corporation. A government official had previously said that it would increase sales of state cotton reserves, which could pressure domestic and international cotton prices. China has stockpiled a total of 6.5 million tonnes of cotton from the 2012 harvest in a programme which finished last Friday, according to data issued by the China Cotton Association. (Source: Reuters)

Corn slides to 9-mth low, wheat down on higher stocks

Chicago corn dropped to a nine-month low on Monday, falling 4 percent and suffering its biggest two-day slide since January 2010, with largerthan-expected U.S. stockpiles piling pressure on the market. Wheat declined to its lowest in three weeks, while soybean prices remained on the backfoot after the U.S.D.A in its quarterly stocks report last week announced higher reserves than market estimates. (Source: Reuters)

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 01, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana prices traded on a negative note last week on account of increasing arrivals of new crop in the physical markets coupled with higher output expectations. The spot as well as the futures settled 3.26% and 1.33% lower w-o-w. Arrivals have gained momentum in MP, the largest chana producing state and shall soon commence in Rajasthan, the second largest producer. Thus, sharp upside is capped in the chana prices. New chana desi crop contain around 10 -12% moisture. The government has extended ban on export of pulses till March 31, 2014. According to DGFT, there is an exception with export of kabuli chana, organic pulses and lentils being allowed up to a ceiling of 10,000 metric tonnes per annum.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3303 3343 Prev day 0.77 0.27

as on March 30, 2013 % change WoW MoM -3.26 -5.91 -1.33 0.27 YoY -1.10 -3.83

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX April contract

Chana Sowing
Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to reduce import dependence. Chana sowing in the current season is 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MP and AP at 15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh ha respectively.

Production
According to second advance Estimates released on 8 Feb 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down 3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at 5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9 mn tn. However, erratic weather in M.P. may lower the yield. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).
th

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Apr 01, 2013 Resistance 3360-3382

3285-3315

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to 0.46 lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook
Chana may trade with a downward bias in the intraday. Higher arrival pressure is expected to keep chana prices under downside pressure. However, strong buying by the stockists at lower levels may prevent sharp fall in the chana prices. Arrivals of chana may increase further once harvesting commences from Rajasthan, the second largest producing state.

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 01, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures remained under downside pressure last week on account of release of higher non levy quota for the next six months. However, reports that government would take a decision on sugar decontrol, supported prices at lower levels. The spot as well as the Futures settled 1.45% and 0.58% lower w-o-w. The Central Government has decided to make available quantity of 104 lakh tons of sugar, as non-levy quota for open market sale, for the 6 months of April, 2013 to September, 2013.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs will take up the issue of sugar decontrol during its meeting on Thursday, according to Union Minister of State for Food and Consumer Affairs K.V. Thomas. Barring two key regulations with respect to fixing sugarcane price and sharing of 70 per cent revenue by sugar firms with farmers, the Rangarajan Committee report has suggested giving freedom to mills to sell sugar in the open market and having a stable export and import policy.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3026

as on March 30, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.23 -1.45 MoM -4.67 YoY 5.31

Rs/qtl

2922

1.00

-0.58

-4.01

4.77

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMay'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE May '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 503.3 392.44

as on March 28, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -1.00 -1.06 -4.75 -3.02 MoM -0.44 -3.18 YoY -20.40 -27.21

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that the sugar output in 2013-14 may fall to around 24 mn tn against current years output of 24.5 mn tn. There are reports that some mills in Maharashtra have stopped crushing due to non availability of cane.

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Exports

India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said last week. Indian sugar mills produced 21.05 mn tn of the sweetener between Oct. 1 and March 15, down 1% from a year ago. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.8 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

Source: Telequote

Global Sugar Updates

Liffe sugar as well as Raw sugar Futures on ICE settled 1% and 1.06% lower on Thursday on account of expectations of abundant supplies from the 2013-14 harvest in the centre-south of Brazil and other leading producers, such as Thailand, Mexico and the United States. According to FO Litch, Brazil's center-south sugar production is expected to reach 36.2 million tonnes in 2013/14, up from 34.1 million tonnes in the previous season. Czarnikow on Wednesday raised its forecast for a projected global sugar surplus to 9.1 mn tn, raw value, up from Decembers projection of 7.8 mn tn in 2012-13, citing higher-than-expected production in the key centresouth region of Brazil. The main adjustment on the production side is the increase in CS Brazil output following a successful end to the crushing season at a new record high of 34.1 million tonnes.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Apr NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Apr 01, 2013 Resistance 2939-2960

2888-2905

Outlook
Prices are expected to trade on a negative note due to higher levy quota. Continuous selling by mills at lower rates due to financial year ending and need based demand is keeping sugar markets under pressure. However, emergence of demand from the bulk manufacturers may support the prices at lower levels. Any decision by the government on the decontrol front may also support prices.

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 01, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean Futures traded on a positive note last week due
to lower supplies in the domestic markets. However, prices declined towards the end of the week after the USDA reported larger than expected ending stocks. The futures settled 0.11% higher w-o-w. Exports of Soybean meal during February, 2013 was 5,77,589 tones as compared to 3,70,524 tonnes in February, 2012 showing an increase by 55.88% over the last year. According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output is pegged at 29.4 mn tn, down by 1.1%, while soybean output is pegged higher at 12.9 mn tn, up 3.2%.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3725 3641 692.3 688.1 Prev day -0.59 -2.16 -0.15 -0.83

as on March 30, 2013

WoW 1.25 0.11 0.36 0.07

MoM 10.08 9.52 0.68 1.06

YoY 26.36 21.43 -5.82 -6.62

International Markets
Due to larger than expected stocks report released by the USDA, Soybean Futures on CBOT declined sharply by 3.37% on Friday. Stocks were reported at 999 mn bushels against expectations of 905 mn bushels. US soybean plantings intentions for the 2013/14 crop year reported at 77.126 mn acres, below market forecasts for 78.394 mn acres. Informa trimmed its forecast of U.S. 2013 soybean plantings to 78.457 million acres, from 78.777 million in January, but it is still up from the 77.198 mn acres seeded to soy in 2012. There are reports that China has cancelled some cargoes from Brazil due shipment delays. China's April imports will likely be less than 4.5 mn tn, lower than market expectations of about 5 mn tn, due to severe port congestion in Brazil that has delayed shipments.

Source: Reuters

as on March 28, 2013 International Prices Soybean- CBOTMay'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMay'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1405 50.11 Prev day -3.37 -1.40 WoW -3.05 -0.61 MoM -4.71 2.64
Source: Reuters

YoY 2.72 -8.22

Crude Palm Oil

as on March 30, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -1.35 -0.15 -4.88 -1.30

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil as well as MCX CPO declined by 0.83%
and 0.15% respectively on Saturday tracking weaker international markets. India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to October 2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of palm oil in 2011/12 as the edible oil is the cheapest available, despite an import duty. India's vegetable oil imports fell about 17 percent to 969,175 tonnes last month, with palm oil imports dropping to 805,362 tonnes. According to Dorab Mistry, Malaysian palm oil futures could rise to 2,400-2,700 ringgit ($770 to $865) per tons by the end of May due to weaker production and falling trend in palm oil inventories. By end of June 2013, Malaysian palm oil stocks will dip below 2 mn tn and Indonesian stocks would below 4 mn tn.

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Apr '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Mar '13 Futures

Last 2340 455.5

MoM -1.47 0.98

YoY -32.82 -22.78

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 3439 3442 Prev day 0.17 -0.66 WoW -1.87 -0.58

as on March 30, 2013 MoM -4.49 1.59

Source: Reuters

YoY -7.55 -8.31

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX April contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures declined by 0.58% last

week due to increasing arrival pressure of new crop. Higher output expectations exerted downside pressure on the prices at higher levels. Sowing of Mustard seed is up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%. MSP of mustard seed is fixed at Rs 3000 per qtl.

Outlook
Soybean prices are expected to trade on a mixed note today. Dwindling supplies in the domestic markets may support prices while higher stocks in the US coupled with ongoing harvesting pressure in South America may pressurize prices. Mustard seed may also trade on a mixed note. Soy oil and CPO is expected to trade higher on expectations of higher exports, lower stocks. However, weak international prices may cap the upside. Prices may find support on expectations that output may fall due to seasonally lower yield.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Apr NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Apr Futures RM Seed NCDEX Apr Futures CPO MCX Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Apr 01, 2013 Support 682-685 3590-3615 3400-3420 454-457 Resistance 691-695 3665-3685 3465-3480 463-465

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 01, 2013

Agricultural Commodities h
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures traded on a mixed note last week. Good demand for the Kerala crop supported prices. Interstate traders, especially from Tamil Nadu are actively buying the Kerala crop. Low stocks in the warehouses coupled with thin supplies have supported the prices. However, higher supplies from Karnataka region kept spot prices under check. Karnataka crop is trading at lower levels due inferior quality. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. Some exports of Karnataka pepper from Mangalore port have been reported. However, exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is weak due to price parity. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.54% and 0.07% lower w-o-w. According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June 2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11, 2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date will be announced in due course. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $6,925/tn (C&F, New York). Vietnams Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 36550 35950 % Change Prev day 0.65 0.25

as on March 30, 2013 WoW -0.54 -0.07 MoM -7.29 -4.43 YoY -6.46 -7.79

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX April contract

Exports and Imports

Indias pepper exports in 2012 have been reported at just 12,000 tonnes while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making India a net importer. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of pepper in 2012 stood at 116,962 mt, Vietnam shipped 12000 mt of pepper in January 2013. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in 2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Apr Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Apr 01, 2013 Support 35470-35660 Resistance 36220-36400

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 7 tonnes while off takes were reported at 10 tonnes on Saturday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Harvesting of pepper in some regions in Kerala are already complete.

Outlook
Pepper is expected to trade on a mixed note with a positive bias today. Low stocks coupled with good demand from the upcountry markets may support prices at lower levels. Reports that farmers are holding back stocks may also support prices at lower levels. However, higher arrivals of pepper from Karnataka may pressurize the prices at higher levels.

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 01, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera futures traded with a negative bias last week on account of higher arrivals of the new crop. However, strong overseas demand supported price at lower levels. Arrivals of the new crop are averaging around 26,000 bags/ day and are likely to improve in the coming days. New crop from Rajasthan is expected to enter the markets from April. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared with 3.719 lakh ha last year. According to the Rajasthan State Budget 2013-14, it has exempted jeera from VAT. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.31% and 0.1% lower w-o-w. According to markets sources the exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,400 tn (FOB Mumbai) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 5-6 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 13343 13040 Prev day 0.00 -0.84

as on March 30, 2013 % Change WoW -0.31 -0.10 MoM 0.16 0.38 YoY 7.36 9.03

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX April contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 45,000 tn on Monday. Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55 kgs each), same as last year. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 0.00 -0.87

as on March 30, 2013 % Change

Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 6414 6394

WoW -0.98 -3.33

MoM 18.33 3.56

YoY 69.62 52.17

Outlook
Jeera Futures are expected to continue to trade on a mixed note today. Good export demand may support prices while higher arrivals of the new crop may pressurize prices. In the medium term, prices are likely to stay firm as Syria and Turkey have stopped shipments.

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures declined last week on account of higher supplies of the new crop. However, good export and domestic demand coupled with output concerns limited downside in the spot markets. Unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh have damaged about 9240 tonnes of turmeric. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.98% and 0.87% lower w-o-w.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX April contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 11,000 bags and 20,000 bags respectively on Monday. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric may trade lower today. Higher supplies of the fresh crop, huge carryover stocks and higher margin on the long side may pressurize prices. However, good overseas as well as domestic demand coupled with crop damage and lower output concerns may support prices.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX Apr Futures Turmeric NCDEX April Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Apr 01, 2013

Support 12780-12920 35470-35660 Resistance 13150-13230 36220-36400

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 01, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton traded on a positive note last week and settled 3.03% and 3.87% higher last week due to lower availability coupled with expectations of good export demand from China in the coming days. Lower planting intentions data from US also supported prices. Prices had declined earlier on reports state-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) would offload stocks in the open market to augment supplies. Lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have caused concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government to direct CCI and NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills. CCI is expected to offload 4 lakh bales in the domestic market and NAFED will sell 3.63 lakh cotton bales from the first week of April 2013. India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing earlier estimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its stockpiles. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 953.5 19330

as on March 30, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 2.09 3.03 3.26 5.51 MoM -5.27 5.51 YoY #N/A 12.25

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton Mar Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 88.46 81.35

as on March 28, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.08 0.29 0.00 0.00 MoM 8.69 0.00 YoY -5.92 -29.20

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Boards (CAB) estimates (23 Jan 2013) for 2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton production is pegged 330 lakh bales, down from the previous years estimates of 353 lakh bales. However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports. After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.
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Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton futures traded on a flat note and settled marginally lower by 0.08% on Thursday. According to the USDA report released on Thursday, planting intentions for the 2013-14 season are said to be at a 4 year low. Also, there are expectations of good export demand from China. Reports of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve led to a sharp decline last week. China, the worlds largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of cotton this year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn. USDA has initially forecasted US Cotton acreage for 2013-14 season, at smallest in 20 yrs, however, with recent surge in prices, farmers may decide to plant more cotton. The planting intention data is schedule to be released on 28th march 2013.

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX April contract

Outlook
In the current week, we expect Cotton prices to trade on a positive note after US cotton planting intentions were reported at a 4 year low. Expectations of good export demand may also support prices. However, sharp upside maybe capped as supplies may increase in the open market.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX April Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Apr 01, 2013 Support 926-940 19000-19180 Resistance 963-976 19500-19680

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