2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

Jorgen R J Randers d Professor Center for Climate Strategy gy Norwegian Business School BI Pioneers of Energy Transition - Conference Vienna, Austria October 10th, 2012

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12 scenarios for the 21st century

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Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis

3: Industrial output 5: Nonrenewable resources

1 5 5 2 3 1

2: Food output

1: Population
1 2 3 0 1900 4

4 3 5 4 2 5 4 2100

4: Pollution level
2000 2050

3 Year

1950
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Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

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Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability

5

5: Nonrenewable resources

3: Industrial output
3 3 1 5 1 2 2

2: Food output

1: Population
1 2 3 0 1900 900

4 3

4: Pollution level
4 4 1950 950
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2000 000

2050 050

Year ea

2100 00

Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

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Limits to Growth: A small and fragile world

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Source: KPMG, 2010

Overshoot: Emissions is twice absorption

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Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 2009

For all numerical data and the forecast model, consult the book website www.2052.info

The five regions used in the 2052 forecast

Region Population 2010 (billion people) US China OECD-less-US (1) BRISE ( (2) ) ROW (3) Sum world 0,3 13 1,3 0,7 2,4 2,1 6,9 GDP 2010 (trillion $ pr year) 13 10 22 14 8 67 GDP per person 2010 (1000 $ pr person-year) 41 7 30 6 4 10

(1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world
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J Randers 8 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

World population will peak in 2040

Gpersons 10 % / yr 5,0

Population (scale) l )

4,0

3,0

Birth rate (scale )

2,0

1,0

Death rate
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1

0 1970

0,0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Figure 4-1 Population World 1970 to 2050

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Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

World GDP growth will slow down

G$ / yr 150 10,000$ / person-yr 6,0 Gp 6.0

120

Population aged 15 to 65 (scale ) (

4,8

4.8

90

World W ld GDP (scale)

3,6

3.6

60

2,4

2.4

30

Gross labor productivity (scale )

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph g p 3a

1,2

1.2

0 1970

0,0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product World 1970 to 2050 Definition: GDP = Population p aged g 15 to 65 y years multiplied p with Gross labour p productivity y NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

0.0

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Share of GDP in investment will grow

% 40 G$ / yr 150

32

World GDP ( (scale l ) Investment share in GDP (scale)

120

24

90

16

Consumption (scale )

60

30

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 4

0 1970

0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Figure 4-4: Production and Consumption World 1970 to 2050 NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

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Energy use will peak in 2040

Gtoe / yr 20 toe / M$ 300 G$ / yr 300

16

World energy use (scale) Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale )

240

240

12

180

180

120

120

World GDP (scale )

4 60 60

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6

0 1970

0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Figure 5-1: Energy Use World 1970 to 2050
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

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Fossil fuels will prevail

Gtoe / y yr 6,5

5,2

Coal use

3,9

Oil use

2,6

Gas use Renewable energy use

1,3

N l Nuclear use
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 8

0,0 1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Figure 5 5-2: 2: Energy Uses World 1970 to 2052 NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 13 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030

GtCO2 / yr 50 tCO2 / toe Gtoe/yr 25 5

40

30

Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy ( (scale l )

CO2 emissions (scale)

20

15

20

10

10

Energy use (scale )

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph g p 9

0 1970

0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Figure 5 5-3: 3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use World 1970 to 2050. 2050 NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 14 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

Temperature and sea-level will rise

ppm 500 deg C 2,5 m 1.5

400

CO2 in atmosphere (scale)

2,0

1.2

Temperature rise (scale )

1,5 0.9

300

200

1,0

0.6

Sea level rise (scale )

100 0,5 0.3

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph g p 10

0 1970

0,0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Figure g 5-4: Climate Change g World 1970 to 2050 NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 15 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

Average disposable income 1970 to 2050

(in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)
40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0

WORLD BRISE China OECD

less US

USA RoW Residual

1970

1990

2010

2030

2050

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Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

Democratic decision making takes time

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COP 15 meeting in December 2009

What should be done? Globally

1 Sl 1. Slow population l ti growth: th Have H fewer f children, particularly in the rich world 2. Reduce the footprint: Eliminate fossil fuels first in the rich world fuels, 3. Help the poor: Build a climate climate-friendly friendly energy system in the poor world 4. Temper short-termism: Establish supranational institutions 5. Establish new goals: Increase societal wellbeing in a world without growth
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What should be done? Pioneer regions

1. Be in favour of small families and optimal degree of centralisation 2. Increase energy efficiency (GDP/energy) and fraction renewable energy (GDP/CO2) 3. Focus on climate-friendly transport, housing and air travel individually or collectively 4. Remember this is primarily a political challenge: To make voters support wise policy even if expensive in the short term
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I dont like what I see!

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jorgen.randers@bi.no

www.2052.info