Aintree Festival Winning Profiles 2013

(Races to be run Thursday 4th April to Saturday 6th April)

www.WinningRaceProfiles.co.uk

The Profile of an Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle winner

This is a Grade 1 race for the 4yo novice hurdlers and you can expect to see plenty of runners coming straight out of the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. The runners compete over the extended 2-mile trip and jump 9 hurdles. Weights are set at 11-0 with fillies benefitting from a 7lb allowance. Alan King has trained 3 winners of this since 2007 in addition to a runner-up. His entrants must be looked at closely. Paul Nicholls also has a decent record 2 winners and 4 top-3 finishes since 2003. And Philip Hobbs has done well too 2 winners and 2 placed finishes from his last 10 runners. Contrarian punters like me have to be careful in this race where the fancied horses have a strong record. Seven of the last 10 winners were sent off favourite. Of the last 42 horses to be sent off in the first 3 in the market for this race a total of 24 hit the frame. Ive focused closely on the last 10 renewals of the race and identified the key statistical signposts that will help us isolate the live contenders in this years field. Heres what I found: Primary Pointers (the strongest stats produced by the last 10 race renewals). All of the last 10 winners had appeared at Cheltenham last time out ( 8 in the Triumph Hurdle) 8 had hit the frame at the Festival Allhad raced on the flat at some point 8 had a strike rate of 50%+ over hurdles 8 had won at least 2 hurdle races 8 had finished 1 st or 2nd in a G1 or G2 hurdle race 7 of the 9 in possession of an official mark were rated 143+ 7 had scored a best RPR of 140+ 8 had scored a career-best RPR last time out All had scored career-best RPR at 17f

Secondary Signals (slightly weaker statistical evidence that needs to be taken on balance). 7 of the last 10 winners had run between 2 and 5 times over hurdles 7 of the 9 to have won a hurdle race had won one worth 12k+

Theres not a tremendous amount of data to work with where these young hurdlers are concerned but the above pointers will focus you on the live contenders. The Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle is the opening race of the Aintree Festival and will be run at 2.00 on Thursday 4 thApril. Ill be back on the morning of the race with my take on how the field measures up to the stats and my idea of the best bets at the prices.

The Profile of a Betfred Bowl winner

The Betfred Bowl was only awarded Grade 1 status in 2010 and its an event that traditionally attracts chasers that fall just below Gold Cup standard. That said its an exciting race in its own right and with just one winning favourite in the last 10 years its a contest that offers the punter who likes to back at a price a fighting chance. The race is run over 3 miles and 1 furlong and the field take in 19 fences on the way round. The event is open to chasers aged 5yo+. Weights are set at 11-7 and the mares benefit from a 7lb allowance. It is worth noting that the Pipe yard first father Martin and more recently son David like to target this race. Between them theyve won 4 of the last 10 renewals. Ive studied the last 10 renewals of the Betfred Bowl and identified the key statistical signposts that will help isolate the live contenders in this years field. Heres what I found: Primary Pointers (the strongest stats produced by the last 10 race renewals). All of the last 10 winners had won at least 3 chases All had a chasing strike rate of at least 25% All had contested at least one G1 chase that season All had won a chase worth in excess of 50k 9 had won a chase at 24f to 26f 9 had won a G1 or G2 chase 9 had raced at least 10 times over fences 9 had raced in the last 6 weeks 9 had finished in the first 3 of chase during the current season 9 had scored an RPR of 163+ over fences at 24f or 25f

Secondary Signals (slightly weaker statistical evidence that needs to be taken on balance). 8 of the last 10 winners (including all of the last 7 winners) were aged 7 to 10 8 had scored an RPR of 153+ last time out 8 had finished 1 st or 2nd in a G1 or a G2 that season 7 had prior experience of the Aintree fences 7 of the 9 with an official rating were rated 159+

Those stats will enable you to latch onto this years live contenders. The tapes go up on this seasons Betfred Bowl at 2.30 on Thursday 4 th April. Ill be back in your inbox on the morning of the race with my take on how the field measures up to the Winning Profile stats and my idea of the best bets at the prices.

The Profile of an Aintree Hurdle winner

The Aintree Hurdle is contested over the 2m4f trip but is often targeted by connections of horses who raced over in the Champion Hurdle over 2 miles at the Cheltenham Festival though none has been successful in both races since Istabraq back in 1999. This season Nicky Hendersons Oscar Whisky will attempt to win the race for the 3 rd season in succession. The event is open to horses aged 4yo+. The 4yo runners carry 11-0 whilst the older horses must shoulder 11-7. Fillies and mares benefit from the 7lb allowance. Willie Mullins hasnt managed to win this race though he has finished 2 nd on 3 occasions since 2009. It is worth noting that in an interview aired on RUK during the Cheltenham Festival Mullins mentioned how much hed like to add this race to his list of big race wins. It was a comment that didnt attract much attention at the time but Id suggest any entries he makes this year be subjected to particularly close scrutiny. Ive studied the last 10 renewals of the race and identified the key statistical signposts that willpoint to the live contenders in this years edition. Heres what I found: Primary Pointers (the strongest stats produced by the last 10 race renewals). All of the last 10 winners were aged 5- to 8-years-old All had won at least 3 hurdle races 9 had raced 3 or 4 times over hurdles during the current season 9 had scored 154+ on the RPR scale(7 hitting that yardstick last time out) 9 had won a hurdle race worth 25k+ 8 were bred in Ireland 8 had raced between 6 and 13 times over hurdles 8 had a hurdling strike rate of 30%+ 8 had run in a Grade 1 hurdle that term None of the last 10 winners had contested a hurdle race lower than Class 2 level during the current season

Use those stats to get a handle on the most likely candidates in this years field. This years edition of the Aintree Hurdle gets underway at 3.05 on Thursday 4 th April. Ill be back with my assessment of the field and my idea of the best bets at the prices on the morning of the race.

The Profile of a Melling Chase winner

The Melling Chase is the Aintree race where Champion Chase horses stepping up in distance meet the Ryanair Chase horses over the 2m4f trip. The race hasnt thrown up too many big surprises in recent years with 7 of the last 10 renewals falling to one of the top 2 horses in the market. Hi Cloy 14/1 winner in 2006 and Albertas Run 8/1 winner in 2010 are the only two to really buck the market view in that time. The Grade 1 race is open to chasers aged 5yo+. The weights are set at 11-10 with the mares benefitting from the 7lb allowance. Ive taken a good look at the last 10 renewals of the race and there are some key statistical pointers that willguide you to the live contenders in this years field. Heres what I found: Primary Pointers (the strongest stats produced by the last 10 race renewals). All of the last 10 winners had raced at least 8 times over fences Allhad won at least 5 races over fences All of the last 7 winners were aged 7- to 9-years-old 9 of the last 10 winners had raced no more than 5 times that term 9 had appeared at the Cheltenham Festival last time out 8 had appeared in a G1 chase at the Cheltenham Festival 9 had scored an RPR of 160+ last time out All had registered a top-2 finish in a G1 that season 8 had won at least twice during the current season 8 had a winning strike rate of 40%+ over fences

Secondary Signals (slightly weaker statistical evidence that needs to be taken on balance). 7 of the last 10 winners had registered a best RPR of 169+ 8 had experience of Aintree 7 over fences and one over hurdles 6 of the last 8 winners were Irish-bred horses (the other two were French-bred)

Application of those stats will lead you to the best-qualified contenders in this seasons edition of the race. The tapes go up on this seasons Melling Chase at 3.05 on Friday 5 th April. Ill be back with my assessment of the runners and my idea of the best betting options on the morning of the race.

The Profile of a Sefton Novices Hurdle winner

The Sefton Novices Hurdle is a race for staying novices over the extended 3 mile trip and 13 flights. The race tends to attract young horses that contested the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Black Jack Ketchum was the last horse to win both events back in 2006. Its a Grade 1 race open to horses aged 4yo+. The 4yo runners carry 10-10 whilst the older horses carry 11-4. Fillies and mares get the 7lb allowance. Alan Kings runners are worth noting hes produced 2 winners since 2002. Jonjo ONeill (2 wins and a place from 5 runners since 2003), Nigel Twiston-Davies (a winner and 2 places since 2004) and Philip Hobbs (5 places from his last 8 runners) are other handlers to note. Just 2 winning favourites over the last 10 years and winners sent off at 14s, 16s, 20s, 25s, 33s offers some encouragement to punters like me who like to find and support horses at a price. Ive analyzed the last 10 renewals of the race and there are somestrong stats that highlightthe contenders best-suited to go well in this years renewal. Heres what I found: Primary Pointers (the strongest stats produced by the last 10 race renewals). All of the last 10 winners were aged 5- to 7-years-old 9 had won at least one of their last two races over hurdles 9 had raced during the last 6 weeks 8 had won at least twice over hurdles 9 had run at least 4 times over hurdles 8 had raced no more than 9 times over hurdles 8 had raced at Grade level over hurdles ( 7 registering a top 4 finish)

Secondary Signals (slightly weaker statistical evidence that needs to be taken on balance). 7 of the last 10 winners had registered a best RPR of 143+ 9 scored their best RPR in one of last two hurdle races 7 had a winning strike rate of 33%+ 4 of the last 5 winners by-passed the Cheltenham Festival Only one of the last 10 winners had raced on the flat 8 had raced in bumpers

Applying those stats to this years field will draw the best-qualified contenders to your attention. This years renewal of the Sefton Novices Hurdle will be run at 4.15 on Friday 5thApril. Ill be back with my thoughts on how the race will pan out and which runners represent the best bets on the morning of the race.

The Profile of a Maghull Novices Chase winner

Run over Aintrees 2 mile trip the Maghull Novices Chase tends to feature horses that ran in the Arkle Challenge Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival. The Grade 1 race is open to horses aged 5yo+. Weights are set at 11-7 with mares benefitting from the 7lb allowance. Paul Nicholls has been the man with the horses for this event over the last dozen years or so. Between them his last 17 entrants produced 4 wins and 7 runner-up finishes. Nicky Henderson has won the last 2 renewals. Ferdy Murphy has won the race twice since 2001. This has not been a particularly attractive race for contrarians like me over the last decade. All of the last 10 winners occupied one of the front two berths in the market. So you go against the consensus horses at your peril. Ive assessed the last 10 renewals of the race and identified the key statistical signposts that will help us isolate the live contenders in this years field. Heres what I found: Primary Pointers (the strongest stats produced by the last 10 race renewals). All of the last 10 winners were aged 5- to 8-years-old (the last 5 winners were aged 6- to 8-years-old) Allof the last 5 winners had a chasing strike rate of 60%+ 9 had raced between 3 and 5 times over fences 9 had registered a win over fences 9 had appeared in the Arkle last time out (7 either won or finished runner-up the other two fell) 9 had registered a best of 154+ on the RPR scale ( 4 of the last 5 winners had form in the book worth an RPR of 160+) 9 recorded their best chasing RPR in the last chase theyd completed All had finished 1 st or 2 nd in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 chase during the current season 4 of the last 5 winners was rated 150+ by the official handicapper 7 of the last 10 winners (incl. 4 of the last 5 winners) had a Dosage CD (Centre of Distribution) figure between 0.13 and 0.61. You can check out the CD figures for runners in this years field at www.pedigreequery.com

This years winner will conform to the lions share of those Winning Profile stats. The 2013 Maghull Novices Chase will be run at 2.15 on Saturday 6 th April. Ill be back with my assessment of the field and my idea of the best bets at the prices on the eve of the race.

The Profile of a Grand National winner

This is a race that requires absolutely no introduction at all. Forty runners will go to post to race over a brutal four and a half miles and 30 of the most demanding fences in racing. The Grand National is a fabulous spectacle and represents one of the hottest betting heats of the year with every man and his dog investing a shilling or two on the outcome. Its a Grade 3 handicap event open to horses aged 7yo+, rated at least 120 on the official scale and having placed in a chase over 24f+. Jonjo ONeill is the handler whose runners cannot be underestimated in this race. Hes saddled one winner and 6 additional horses that hit the frame since 2004 and hes had a few hard-luck stories over that period too. Paul Nicholls is another handler whose runners have to be respected one winner and 5 finishes in the frame since 2003. And always be aware of Ted Walsh. His last 7 runners have produced a win and 2 frame finishes. If youre looking for a bloodline angle for the Grand National then take a look at runners sired by Old Vic his last 20 Grand National runners have produced 2 wins and 5 additional placed finishes. Progeny of Presenting, Montelimar and Gunner B also have a strong recent record in this highly specific test of a horse. Ive studied the last 10 renewals of the race and there are some strong and reliable signposts that pointclearly tothe live contenders. Heres what I found: Primary Pointers (the strongest stats produced by the last 10 race renewals). All of the last 10 winners had raced over fences at least 10 times (8 had contested no more than 24 chases) Allhad won at least 3 chases (8 had won no more than 5 times) All were officially rated 138+ ( 4 of the last 5 winners were rated 148+) All had won a chase at 24f+ (8 had raced at 24f+ over fences at Graded level) All had scored their career-best RPR over fences at 24f+ 9 had won a chase worth 30k+ 9 were aged 9- to 11-years-old 9 had won a chase in a field of 14 or more runners 8 had already raced over fences at 28f+ (7 producing an RPR within 8lb of career-best RPR over fences) 8 had run over hurdles at least once during the current season 8 of the last 10 winners were Irish-bred (note: 2 of the last 5 winners were French-bred horses) 8 had scored a best RPR over fences of 150+ (7 had produced their best ever rating in one of their last 2 chase starts)

Secondary Signals (slightly weaker statistical evidence that needs to be taken on balance).

8 of the last 10 winners had a Dosage CD (Centre of Distribution) figure of 0.11or lower. You can check out the CD figures for runners in this years field at www.pedigreequery.com 4 of the last 5 winners had contested Grade level chase that season 4 of the last 5 winners carried 11-0 or more to victory Only 2 of the last 10 winners had won a chase at a trip short of 18f Only 2 had raced at that seasons Cheltenham Festival None had been off the track for more than 8 weeks None of the last 10 winners had won more than once over fences that term ( 6 hadnt won a single race over fences that season)

Apply the above-mentioned stats to reduce the field to a shortlist of contenders with the credentials to go well. This years Grand National will be run at 4.15 on Saturday 6 th April. Ill be back in your inbox on the eve of the race with my take on the major players and my idea of the best bets at the prices.