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Chapter 4
Probability
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
The main objective of Chapter 4 is to help you understand the basic principles of
probability, specifically enabling you to
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Chapter 4: Probability
CHAPTER OUTLINE
4.1
Introduction to Probability
4.2
4.3
Structure of Probability
Experiment
Event
Elementary Events
Sample Space
Unions and Intersections
Mutually Exclusive Events
Independent Events
Collectively Exhaustive Events
Complimentary Events
Counting the Possibilities
The mn Counting Rule
Sampling from a Population with Replacement
Combinations: Sampling from a Population Without Replacement
4.4
4.5
Addition Laws
Probability Matrices
Complement of a Union
Special Law of Addition
Chapter 4: Probability
4.6
Multiplication Laws
General Law of Multiplication
Special Law of Multiplication
4.7
Conditional Probability
Independent Events
4.8
KEY TERMS
A Priori
Bayes' Rule
Classical Method of Assigning Probabilities
Collectively Exhaustive Events
Combinations
Complement of a Union
Complement
Conditional Probability
Elementary Events
Event
Experiment
Independent Events
Intersection
Joint Probability
Marginal Probability
mn Counting Rule
Mutually Exclusive Events
Probability Matrix
Relative Frequency of Occurrence
Sample Space
Set Notation
Subjective Probability
Union
Union Probability
Chapter 4: Probability
D2 D3,
D2 A4,
D2 A5,
D2 A6,
D3 A4,
D3 A5
D3 A6
A4 A5
A4 A6
A5 A6
4.2
Chapter 4: Probability
4.3
If A = {2, 6, 12, 24} and the population is the positive even numbers through 30,
A = {4, 8, 10, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, 26, 28, 30}
4.4
6(4)(3)(3) = 216
4.5
D1 D2 A2,
D1 A1 A2,
D1 A2 A3,
D2 A1 A2,
D2 A2 A3,
A1 A2 A3,
A2 A3 A4
D1 D2 A3,
D1 A1 A3,
D1 A2 A4,
D2 A1 A3,
D2 A2 A4,
A1 A2 A4,
Combinations are used to counting the sample space because sampling is done
without replacement.
C3 =
6!
= 20
3!3!
.60
There are 20 members of the sample space and 12 of them have exactly
1 defective part.
4.6
4.7
20
C6 =
20 !
= 38,760
6!14 !
Chapter 4: Probability
4.8
C) = .05 P(B _
C) = .03
4.9
7167
5167
12
25
10
20
15
23
16
21
60
Chapter 4: Probability
4.10
a)
b)
c)
d)
4.11
.10
.03
.13
.04
.12
.16
.27
.06
.33
.31
.07
.38
.72
.28
1.00
P(A
P(E
P(B
P(E
P(T) = .28
T)
Cannot solve this problem without knowing the probability of the intersection.
We need to know the probability of the intersection of A and T, the proportion
who have ridden both or determine if these two events are mutually exclusive.
4.12
Chapter 4: Probability
4.13
4.14
Y
.35
N
.19
.54
.09
.37
.46
.44
.56
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
4.15
C
11
16
40
17
14
21
15
57
a)
b)
c)
d)
4.16
D
.12
.13
.08
.33
.18
.09
.04
.31
.06
.24
.06
.36
.36
.46
.18
1.00
a) P(E _ B) = .09
b) P(C _ F) = .06
c) P(E _ D) = .00
4.17
6 5
30
=
= .0122
50 49 2450
b) (with replacement)
P(D1 _
4.18
6 6
36
=
= .0144
50 50 2500
Let U = Urban
I = care for Ill relatives
P(U) = .78
P(I) = .15
P(IU) = .11
a) P(U _ I) = P(U) P(IU)
P(U _ I) = (.78)(.11) = .0858
Chapter 4: Probability
10
c)
U
Yes
I
No
Yes
No
.15
.85
.78
.22
The answer to a) is found in the YES-YES cell. To compute this cell, take 11%
or .11 of the total (.78) people in urban areas. (.11)(.78) = .0858 which belongs in
the YES-YES" cell. The answer to b) is found in the Yes for U and no for I cell.
It can be determined by taking the marginal, .78, less the answer for a), .0858.
d. P(NU _ I) is found in the no for U column and the yes for I row (1st row and
2nd column). Take the marginal, .15, minus the yes-yes cell, .0858, to get
.0642.
Chapter 4: Probability
4.19
Let S = stockholder
P(S) = .43
11
Let C = college
P(C) = .37
P(CS) = .75
Yes
No
Yes
.3225
.0475
.37
No
.1075
.5225
.63
.43
.57
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
4.20
12
NP
.091
.009
.10
NF
.429
.471
.90
.520
.480
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
13
4.21
Let S = safety
Let A = age
P(S) = .30
P(A) = .39
P(AS) = .87
a) P(S _ NA) = P(S) P(NAS)
but P(NAS) = 1 - P(AS) = 1 - .87 = .13
P(S _ NA) = (.30)(.13) = .039
b) P(NS _ NA) = 1 - P(S A) = 1 - [P(S) + P(A) - P(S _ A)]
but P(S _ A) = P(S) P(AS) = (.30)(.87) = .261
P(NS _ NA) = 1 - (.30 + .39 - .261) = .571
c) P(NS _ A) = P(NS) - P(NS _ NA)
but P(NS) = 1 - P(S) = 1 - .30 = .70
P(NS _ A) = .70 - 571 = .129
The matrix:
A
Yes
No
Yes
.261
.129
.39
No
.039
.571
.61
.30
.70
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
4.22
14
Yes
No
4.23
E
15
12
35
11
17
19
47
21
32
27
80
18
13
12
43
65
74
66
205
No
.47
.24
.71
.60
.40
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
15
4.24
C
.36
.44
.80
.11
.09
.20
.47
.53
1.00
4.25
Calculator
Computer
Yes
No
Yes
46
49
No
11
15
26
57
18
75
.8070 .6533
Since this is one example that the conditional does not equal the marginal in
is matrix, the variable, computer, is not independent of the variable,
calculator.
Chapter 4: Probability
4.26
Let C = construction
16
e) P(NSNC) =
= .11576
P ( NS NC ) 1 P (C S )
=
P ( NC )
P ( NC )
P ( NS C )
P (C ) P (C S )
=
P (C )
P (C )
Chapter 4: Probability
4.27
17
Let E = Economy
Let Q = Qualified
P(E) = .46
P(Q) = .37
P(E _ Q) = .15
a) P(EQ) = P(E _ Q)/P(Q) = .15/.37 = .4054
b) P(QE) = P(E _ Q)/P(E) = .15/.46 = .3261
c) P(QNE) = P(Q _ NE)/P(NE)
but P(Q _ NE) = P(Q) - P(Q _ E) = .37 - .15 = .22
P(NE) = 1 - P(E) = 1 - .46 = .54
P(QNE) = .22/.54 = .4074
d) P(NE _ NQ) = 1 - P(E Q) = 1 - [P(E) + P(Q) - P(E _ Q)]
= 1 - [.46 + .37 - .15] = 1 - (.68) = .32
The matrix:
Q
Yes
No
Yes
.15
.22
.37
No
.31
.32
.63
.46
.54
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
4.28
18
E
M
Yes
No
Yes
.1080
No
.4320
.54
.46
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
4.29
19
Let H = hardware
Let S = software
P(H) = .37
P(S) = .54
P(SH) = .97
a) P(NSH) = 1 - P(SH) = 1 - .97 = .03
b) P(SNH) = P(S _ NH)/P(NH)
but P(H _ S) = P(H) P(SH) = (.37)(.97) = .3589
so P(NH _ S) = P(S) - P(H _ S) = .54 - .3589 = .1811
P(NH) = 1 - P(H) = 1 - .37 = .63
P(SNH) = (.1811)/(.63) = .2875
c) P(NHS) = P(NH _ S)/P(S) = .1811//54 = .3354
d) P(NHNS) = P(NH _ NS)/P(NS)
but P(NH _ NS) = P(NH) - P(NH _ S) = .63 - .1811 = .4489
and P(NS) = 1 - P(S) = 1 - .54 = .46
P(NHNS) = .4489/.46 = .9759
The matrix:
S
Yes
No
Yes
.3589
.1811
.54
No
.0111
.4489
.46
.37
.63
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
4.30
20
Let R = agreed or strongly agreed that lack of role models was a barrier
Let S = agreed or strongly agreed that gender-based stereotypes was a barrier
P(R) = .43
P(S) = .46
P(RS) = .77
P(not S) = .54
Yes
No
Yes
.3542
.1058
.46
No
.0758
.4642
.54
.43
.57
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
4.31
Event
A
B
C
21
P(B) = .40
P(C) = .50
P(DB) = .12
Prior
Conditional
P(Ei)
.10
.40
.50
P(DEi)
.05
.12
.08
Revise:
Joint
P(D _ Ei)
.005
.048
.040
P(D)=.093
P(DC) = .08
Revised
.005/.093=.0538
.048/.093=.5161
.040/.093=.4301
Chapter 4: Probability
4.32
Let
22
P(A) = .30
P(B) = .45 P(C) = .25
P(IA) = .20 P(IB) = .12
P(IC) = .05
P(KA) = .80 P(KB) = .88
P(KC) = .95
a) P(B) = .45
b) P(KC) = 1 - P(IC) = 1 - .05 = .95
c)
Event
Prior
Conditional
A
B
C
P(Ei)
.30
.45
.25
P(IEi)
.20
.12
.05
Joint
P(I _ Ei)
.0600
.0540
.0125
P(I)=.1265
Revised
P(EiI)
.0600/.1265=.4743
.0540/.1265=.4269
.0125/.1265=.0988
Prior
Conditional
A
B
C
P(Ei)
.30
.45
.25
P(KEi)
.80
.88
.95
Joint
P(K _ Ei)
.2400
.3960
.2375
P(K)=.8735
Revised
P(EiK)
.2400/.8735=.2748
.3960/.8735=.4533
.2375/.8735=.2719
Chapter 4: Probability
4.33
Let
23
P(T) = .72
P(G) = .28
Event
Prior
Conditional
A
B
P(Ei)
.72
.28
P(VEi)
.30
.20
Revised:
P(VT) = .30
Joint
P(V _ Ei)
.216
.056
P(V)=.272
P(VG) = .20
Revised
P(EiV)
.216/.272=.7941
.056/.272=.2059
4.34
Let S = small
Let L = large
Prior
Conditional
S
L
P(Ei)
.70
.30
P(TEi)
.18
.82
Revised:
P(L) = .30
Joint
P(T _ Ei)
.1260
.2460
P(T)=.3720
Revised
P(EiT)
.1260/.3720 = .3387
.2460/.3720 = .6613
Chapter 4: Probability
24
4.35
Variable 1
Variable 2
10
20
30
15
20
30
15
45
55
40
95
P(A B)
.0 0 0 0
=
= .0000 (A and B are mutually exclusive)
P (B )
2 /0 9 5
i) P(A) = P(AD)??
Does 30/95 = 10/95 ??
Since, .31579 .18182, Variables 1 and 2 are not independent.
Chapter 4: Probability
25
4.36
12
31
22
10
25
21
18
16
23
78
P(A B)
.0 0 0 0
=
= .0000 (A and B are mutually exclusive)
P (B )
2 /2 7 8
Chapter 4: Probability
26
4.37
Age(years)
Gender
86
<35
35-44
45-54
55-64
>65
Male
.11
.20
.19
.12
.16
.78
Female
.07
.08
.04
.02
.01
.22
.18
.28
.23
.14
.17
1.00
a) P(35-44) = .28
b) P(Woman _ 45-54) = .04
c) P(Man 35-44) = P(Man) + P(35-44) - P(Man _ 35-44) = .78 + .28 - .20 = .
d) P(<35 55-64) = P(<35) + P(55-64) = .18 + .14 = .32
e) P(Woman45-54) = P(Woman _ 45-54)/P(45-54) = .04/.23= .1739
f) P(not W _ not 55-64) = .11 + .20 + .19 + .16 = .66
Chapter 4: Probability
4.38
Let T = thoroughness
P(T) = .78
P(K) = .40
27
Let K = knowledge
P(T _ K) = .27
Yes
No
Yes
.27
.13
.40
No
.51
.09
.60
.78
.22
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
4.39
28
Let R = retirement
P(R) = .42
P(R _ L) = .33
P(L) = .61
Yes
No
Yes
.33
.28
.61
No
.09
.30
.39
.42
.58
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
4.40
29
P(TNE) = .17
Chapter 4: Probability
4.41
Let M = MasterCard
30
A = American Express
P(M) = .30
P(A) = .20
P(V) = .25
P(M _ A) = .08
P(V _ M) = .12
V = Visa
P(A _ V) = .06
Chapter 4: Probability
4.42
31
P(N) = .51
Therefore, P(S) = 1 - .51 = .49
P(<45) = .57
P(S>45) = .70
Therefore, P(N>45) = 1 - P(S>45) = 1 - .70 = .30
a) P(>45) = 1 - P(<45) = 1 - .57 = .43
b) P(<45 _ S) = P(S) - P(>45 _ S) =
but P(> 45 _ S) = P(> 45) P(S> 45) = (.43)(.70) = .301
P(<45 _ S) = P(S) - P(>45 _ S) = .49 - .301 = .189
c) P(>45S) = P(>45 _ S)/P(S) = .189/.49 = .6143
d) (<45 N) = P(<45) + P(N) - P(<45 _ N) =
but P(<45 _ N) = P(<45) - P(<45 _ S) = .57 - .189 = .381
so P(<45 N) = .57 + .51 - .381 = .699
Probability Matrix Solution for Problem 4.42:
S
<45
.189
.381
.57
>45
.301
.129
.43
.490
.510
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
4.43
32
Save
Yes
No
Yes
.3483
.0817
.43
No
.1017
.4683
.57
.45
.55
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
4.44
33
Let R = read
Let B = checked in the with boss
P(R) = .40
P(B) = .34
P(BR) = .78
NB
.312
.088
.40
NR
.028
.572
.60
.34
.66
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
4.45
34
.2625
.0875
.35
.39375
.25625
.65
.65625
.34375
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
4.46
35
Let: D = denial
I = inappropriate
C = customer
P = payment dispute
S = specialty
G = delays getting care
R = prescription drugs
P(D) = .17
P(I) = .14
P(C) = .14
P(P) = .11
P(S) = .10
P(G) = .08
P(R) = .07
a) P(P S) = P(P) + P(S) = .11 + .10 = .21
b) P(R _ C) = .0000 (mutually exclusive)
c) P(IS) = P(I _ S)/P(S) = .0000/.10 = .0000
d) P(NG _ NP) = 1 - P(G P) = 1 - [P(G) + P(P)] =
1 [.08 + .11] = 1 - .19 = .81
Chapter 4: Probability
4.47
36
Let R = retention
Let P = process improvement
P(R) = .56
P(P _ R) = .36
P(RP) = .90
a) P(R _ NP) = P(R) - P(P _ R) = .56 - .36 = .20
b) P(PR) = P(P _ R)/P(R) = .36/.56 = .6429
c) P(P) = ??
Solve P(RP) = P(R _ P)/P(P) for P(P):
P(P) = P(R _ P)/P(RP) = .36/.90 = .40
d) P(R P) = P(R) + P(P) - P(R _ P) =
.56 + .40 - .36 = .60
e) P(NR _ NP) = 1 - P(R P) = 1 - .60 = .40
f) P(RNP) = P(R _ NP)/P(NP)
but P(NP) = 1 - P(P) = 1 - .40 = .60
P(RNP) = .20/.60 = .3333
P
and
.36
.20
.56
.04
.40
.44
.40
.60
1.00
Note: In constructing the matrix, we are given P(R) = .56, P(P _ R) = .36,
P(RP) = .90. That is, only one marginal probability is given.
From P(R), we can get P(NR) by taking 1 - .56 = .44.
However, only these two marginal values can be computed directly.
To solve for P(P), using what is given, since we know that 90% of P lies
in the intersection and that the intersection is .36, we can set up an
equation to solve for P:
.90P = .36
Solving for P = .40.
Chapter 4: Probability
4.48
37
Let M = mail
Let S = sales
P(M) = .38 P(M _ S) = .0000 P(NM _ NS) = .41
a) P(M _ NS) = P(M) - P(M _ S) = .38 - .00 = .38
b) Because P(M _ S) = .0000, P(M S) = P(M) + P(S)
Therefore, P(S) = P(M S) - P(M)
but P(M S) = 1 - P(NM _ NS) = 1 - .41 = .59
Thus, P(S) = P(M S) - P(M) = .59 - .38 = .21
c) P(SM) = P(S _ M)/P(M) = .0000/.38 = .0000
d) P(NMNS) = P(NM _ NS)/P(NS) = .41/.79 = .5190
where: P(NS) = 1 - P(S) = 1 - .21 = .79
Probability matrix for problem 4.48:
S
.0000
.38
.38
.21
.41
.62
.21
.79
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
4.49
38
.246
.164
.41
.059
.531
.59
.305
.695
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
4.50
Event
Let S = Sarabia
Let T = Tran
Let J = Jackson
P(S) = .41
P(BS) = .05
P(T) = .32
P(BT) = .08
P(J) = .27
P(BJ) = .06
Prior
Conditional
P(Ei)
.41
.32
.27
S
T
J
4.51
39
P(BEi)
.05
.08
.06
Let R = regulations
Joint
P(B _ Ei)
Revised
P(BiNS)
.3291
.4109
.2600
.0205
.0256
.0162
P(B) = .0623
T = tax burden
P(R) = .30
P(T) = .35
P(TR) = .71
a) P(R _ T) = P(R) P(TR) = (.30)(.71) = .2130
b) P(R T) = P(R) + P(T) - P(R _ T) =
.30 + .35 - .2130 = .4370
c) P(R T) - P(R _ T) = .4370 - .2130 = .2240
d) P(RT) = P(R _ T)/P(T) = .2130/.35 = .6086
e) P(NRT) = 1 - P(RT) = 1 - .6086 = .3914
f) P(NRNT) = P(NR _ NT)/P(NT) = [1 - P(R T)]/P(NT) =
(1 - .4370)/.65 = .8662
Probability matrix for problem 4.51:
T
.213
.087
.30
.137
.563
.70
.35
.65
1.00
Chapter 4: Probability
40
4.52
Event
Prior
Conditional
Joint
P(RB _ Ei)
0-24
P(Ei)
.353
P(RBEi)
.11
25-34
.142
.24
.03408
35-44
.160
.27
.04320
> 45
.345
.39
.13455
.03883
Revised
P(EiRB)
.03883/.25066 = .
15491
.03408/.25066 = .
13596
.04320/.25066 = .
17235
.13455/.25066 = .
53678
P(RB) = .25066
4.53
P(FG) = .40