Sei sulla pagina 1di 4
Jan Tinbergen " data-type="pdf-document" id="pdf-document">
Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic

Agricultural & Applied Economics Association

Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy by Jan Tinbergen Review by: John W. Mellor Journal of Farm Economics, Vol. 46, No. 1 (Feb., 1964), pp. 271-273 Published by: Oxford University Press on behalf of the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association

Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1236502 .

Accessed: 18/03/2013 09:21

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp

.

JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.

.

information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. . Agricultural & Applied Economics Association and

Agricultural & Applied Economics Association and Oxford University Press are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Journal of Farm Economics.

http://www.jstor.org

This content downloaded on Mon, 18 Mar 2013 09:21:31 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions

REVEWS

271

Tinbergen,Jan, Shaping the World Economy:Suggestionsfor an International Economic Policy, New York, The Twentieth CenturyFund, 1962, pp. xviii,

330. (Cloth, $4.00; Paper,$2.25)

In

this book, Tinbergen and his staff at the Netherlands Economic

of their views as to

prescriptions for solutionof

an interesting empirical analysis of

regard to

judg-

theory

Institute

the nature of the world's

those problems.

trade

either

ment

the many controversialissues treated.

give

a

readable, essentiallypopular presentation

majorproblems

exception

of

attempt

and their

to

chart

With the

the book does not

patterns,

of

a

new ground

in

or empirical evidence. It is however valuable to have the

person

of

Tinbergen's experience and stature in

regard to

large

Tinbergen'swide-ranging

aid

foreign

to

70

by

conclusions emphasize the need for: (a) a

the

developed

the

coverage

a

la

the

towards free trade, with the

developed

increase in

providing 60

Rosenstein-Rodan;1(b)

of

in the

on the

products

agreements; (e)

countries, with the United States

suggestions of

exception

agriculturalprotection

countries

and better international commodity

integration within geographic regions;

percent of

rapid progress

temporary duties in low income

developed

countriesand some

countries; (c) reduced internaltaxes in

of

tropical

areas; (d) more

increased economic

(f)

(h)

a

greatly enlarged role for the United Nations, particularly and

projections; (g) a greatly enlarged

as well as in

nations in determinationof

of

policy supranational financialand monetary

development

rates if

they

were

acceptable

Meade's3

suggestion

to nationalcentralbank

in

regard role for the

to

development planning

its execution; and authorities.These

suggestions of RobertTrif- of

fluctuating ex-

managers);they

would coordinate and redress imbalances in national allocations of aid and

change

fin2 (although Tinbergen would prefer

latter would serve as a world centralbank a la the

nonaligned

the

development

mary

risksof

private foreign and internationallevel is

The book is concerned sees this as the

nature of

the Communist," and

ates an

lems, trade

pendices provide a

developed regions

quantification of the consequences

funds;

they would stabilize revenues of countries

provide

importance of planning

producingpri-

since

Tinbergen

commodities, and

they

would

insurance against noneconomic

at the national

investment.The

emphasizedthroughout the

largely

with economic

in

book.

development

keystoneproblem

the world economy.

competingsystems

Part one discussesthe

the Westernand Part two deline- investment

prob-

ap-

under-

of trade flows and

underdevelopment, the

optimal

existing

"two

trade and

commodityproblems.

regard

and

to

objectives,

international policy in

and commodity policy

"lightly of the world

once

plus

international institutions. The

major

over" treatment of the four

detail on the

analysis of various tariff and excise tax reductions.

1P. N.

2

'J.

Rosenstein-Rodan, "InternationalAid for UnderdevelopedCountries,"

the Dollar Crisis-Future of Convertability, New Haven,

"The Future of International Trade and Payments," The Three

Rev. Econ. and Stat., May 1961, pp. 107-138.

R. Triffin, Gold and

1960.

E. Meade,

Banks Review, June 1961.

This content downloaded on Mon, 18 Mar 2013 09:21:31 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions

272

REVImws

In an attempt to cover a wide

book

area efficiently and in a manner intelligible

admits

a

looseness

of

definition

likely

are not conducive to persist-

to

distress many readers, viz: "we must realize that most of the people in Asia

and Africa and many in Latin America are living at a starvation level" and

"surely the tropical and subtropical climates

ence or to productivity generally." Tinbergen subscribes to the "big push" school of development with its ancillary of the "vicious circle of poverty." This position leads clearly to his conclusion that an adequate rate of growth of 2 percent per year in the per capita income of underdeveloped areas will require additional investment of 7 to 8 billion dollars per year, and that this increment will have to come in the form of aid from the developed areas. This incremental sum is equiva- lent to 1 percent of the total national income of developed countries and would

to a broad audience,

the

require roughly a doubling of annual foreign aid expenditures. It is perhaps in regard to foreign aid that this book falls furthest short of

the crucial issues of the day. Tinbergen provides elegant support for

meeting

aid on the grounds of equity, welfare and world power politics. He does not

use the argument that, in the long run, development might provide the basis for greater world efficiency in production and hence direct economic ad-

nations. But, more important, his treatment does not

recognize that recent growth in American criticism of foreign aid has come not so much from growing parochialism and a decline in concern for welfare of others as from a feeling of frustration in achievement from foreign aid. There is a good deal of evidence that this frustration is based on real failings rather

vantages to the developed

than on excessively high expectations. Thus, an increase, or even maintenance of current aid levels, demands measures for increased effectiveness of aid.

of

technical

includes some of the best opportunities and the greatest failings in aid pro-

126) for equalization of rates of

growth

The returns may be low in the case of governments which will

requisite developmental steps and countries which are short of infrastructure, particularly trained manpower. In the long run it may be more efficient to give a modest total of aid, empha- sizing manpower training, to countries shortest of manpower and infrastructure

and heavy capital credits to the countries providing higher short-run returns

due to a more developed infrastructure. Although this may or

aid

Tinbergen gives few positive

aid

programs.

This

suggestions for improving the effectiveness

is

doubly

unfortunate

because

(p.

efficiency

of

technical

grams. And, unfortunately, his argument

as the basic criteria for aid may reduce the

capital grants. not take the

may

not widen

income gaps in the short run, it appears to provide a better framework for current policy than Tinbergen's more heavily equity-oriented prescription.

In an interesting preliminary analysis, Tinbergen measures the extent to which "today's pattern of international trade deviates from the most desirable

most pairs of

countries is

the

of the

the most desirable volume of trade," equations

not restricted and can therefore be considered as an indication of

quantitative structure." On the assumption "that trade between

are used

to

calculate

normal volume

of trade for each

of 42

countries. The

determinants

This content downloaded on Mon, 18 Mar 2013 09:21:31 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions

REVIEWS

273

normal pattern of trade among pairs of countriesare the size of the

and

tween countries. Calculationsof the coefficientswere made for various sets

of countries, the

The correlationcoefficientsof about 0.80 were not

introducingdummy

Commonwealth preference and Benelux preference. The solutionsto the Cobb-

Douglas equations

will be

versely

proportional to the distancebetween them."This is counterto the com-

mon belief that trade increasesmore than

of the deviationsfromnormalindicatesthat "the

ing

countries."Since diversity of production was not found as highly

with GNP as

are the main offendersin trade restrictionism. Among these countries, France

turns out to be more restrictivethan average and the United States less.

exporting

importingcountry

largest

as measured

set

being

by

GNP and the geographic

comprising

versus

1,722

distance be-

42, and

pairs (42 by 41).

significantly increased by

variablesfor

neighboring

nonneighboring countries,

any

two countries

of those countriesand in-

"implies that normaltrade flow between

the

gross

national

products

proportional to

proportionately with GNP. Analysis

of countriesshow-

large industrial

correlated

industrialcountries

only group and consistent subnormalvolume of trade are the

might

be

expected,

this

implies

that the

large

a

large

JOHN W. MELLOR

Cornell

University

This content downloaded on Mon, 18 Mar 2013 09:21:31 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions