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Lockheed Martin Missiles & Space-

Huntsville

LMSC P038190

,//V -/_--

Advanced Heavy

Transportation System Studies Technical Area 2 (TA-2) Lift Launch Vehicle Development Contract NAS8-39208 DR 4 Final Report

Prepared by Lockheed Martin Missiles & Space for the Launch Systems Concepts Office of the George C. Marshall Space Flight Center July 1995

ATSS

Final

Report

LMSC

P038190

NAS8-39208

Advanced Heavy

Transportation System Studies Technical Area 2 (TA-2) Lift Launch Vehicle Development Contract NAS8-39208 DR 4 Final Report Volume III Program Cost Estimates

Approved:

TA-2

Study

Manager

Lockheed Martin Missiles & Space-

Huntsville

ATSS Final Volume III

Report

LMSC

P038190

NAS8-39208

Preface
The Advanced Transportation System Studies (ATSS) Technical Area 2 (TA-2) Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle Development contract, NAS8-39208, was led by the Missile Systems Division of Lockheed Martin Missiles & Space (LMMS), and supported by principal TA-2 teammembers Lockheed Martin Space Operations (LMSO), Aerojet, ECON, Inc., and Pratt & Whitney. Addition technical task support was provided by Lockheed Martin Skunk Works (LMSW). The ATSS TA-2 contract was managed by James B. McCurry, Lockheed Martin Missiles & Space, and performed for Mr. Gary W. Johnson, Contracting Officer's Technical Representative (COTR), of the Launch Systems Concepts Office (Organization Code PT-51), National Aeronautics and Space Administration George C. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). The purpose of the TA-2 contract was to provide advanced launch vehicle concept definition and analysis to assist NASA in the identification of future launch vehicle requirements. Contracted analysis activities included vehicle sizing and performance analysis, subsystem concept definition, propulsion subsystem definition (foreign and domestic), ground operations and facilities analysis, and life cycle cost estimation. The basic period of performance of the TA-2 contract was from May 1992 through May 1993. No-cost extensions were exercised on the contract from June 1993 through July 1995. This document volumes: Volume Volume Volume I II III is the final report for the TA-2 contract. The final report consists of three

Executive Technical Program

Summary Results Cost Estimates

Volume I provides a summary description of the technical activities that were performed over the entire contract duration, covering three distinct launch vehicle definition activities: heavy-lift (300,000 pounds injected mass to low Earth orbit) launch vehicles for the First Lunar Outpost (FLO), medium-lift (50,000-80,000 pounds injected mass to low Earth orbit) launch vehicles, and single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) launch vehicles (25,000 pounds injected mass to a Space Station orbit). Per direction from the TA-2 COTR, Volume II provides documentation of selected technical results from various TA-2 analysis activities, including a detailed narrative description of the SSTO concept assessment results, a user's guide for the associated SSTO sizing tools, an SSTO turnaround assessment report, an executive summary of the ground operations assessments performed during the first year of the contract, a configuration-independent vehicle health management system requirements report, a copy of all major TA-2 contract presentations, a copy of the FLO launch vehicle final report (NASA document with contributions from TA-2), and references to Pratt & Whitney's TA-2 sponsored final reports regarding the identification of Russian (NPO Energomash) main propulsion technologies. Volume III provides a work breakdown structure dictionary, user's guide for the parametric cycle cost estimation tool, and final report developed by ECON, Inc., under subcontract Lockheed Martin on TA-2 for the analysis of heavy lift launch vehicle concepts. Any inquiries regarding the TA-2 contract or its results and products W. Johnson, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, (205) 544-0636. may be directed life to

at Mr. Gary

Lockheed Missiles

Martin & SpaceHuntsville

ATSS Final Volume III

Report

LMSC

P038190

NAS8-39208

Acknowledgments The TA-2 study manager wishes to acknowledge the outstanding working relationships that developed during the TA-2 study contract, involving a true team effort between each of the TA-2 participants. The TA-2 COTR, Mr. Gary W. Johnson, was instrumental in fostering a team-play environment between the NASA and contractor participants that resulted in an extraordinary amount of engineering analysis results being produced. The TA-2 participants were immersed in a very dynamic environment in which the scope of the launch vehicle analysis activities constantly changed, reflecting the extraordinarily dynamic events that were unfolding at NASA Headquarters during the period of March 1992 through June 1994. The following personnel, listed by participating organization, are gratefully acknowledged for their outstanding contributions to the TA-2 contract. In addition, special recognition is due Messrs. Keith Holden and Kevin Sagis for their unique and innovative contributions during the entire course of the TA2 contract in the development of vehicle sizing tools and the assessment of vehicle performance. respectively. NASA-Headquarters Bob Bristow Phil Sumrall NASA- Marshall Gene Austin Tom Byrd Steve Creech Steve Cook Joe Hammaker Uwe Hueter Gary Johnson Becky M_,Caleb Rick Ryan Ed Threat NASA- Johnson Phil Deans Darryl Kendrick Ed Svrcek Kevin Temptin Wayne Ordway Dave Weaver NASA-Kennedy Joel Blum Don Paige Aerojet Ed Bair Bill Sprow ECON, Inc. Jon Graham John Skratt Space Space

Headquarters Headquarters

sponsor sponsor

Flight Center ATSS Study Manager and Access Russian propulsion assessment Cost assessment Vehicle concept Cost assessment Access to Space TA-2 COTR assessment Option 2 Team

to Space

Option

3 Team

Lead

Lead

Environmental assessment Propulsion assessment Vehicle concept assessment Center First First First First First First

Lunar Lunar Lunar Lunar Lunar Lunar

Outpost Outpost Outpost Outpost Outpost Outpost

requirements definition vehicle concept assessment vehicle concept assessment vehicle concept assessment vehicle concept assessment requirements definition

Space

Center Advanced Projects Ground processing

Group Lead, ground operations facilities and support equipment

Advanced Advanced

propulsion propulsion

concepts concepts

definition definition

Cost Cost Martin

modeling analysis

development

Lockheed Missiles

ii Huntsville

& Space-

ATSS Volume

Final III

Revort

LMSC

P038190

NAS8-39208 bIissiles & Space Aerodynamacs generauon and base iaeaung analysis Contract admmistrauon Structures analysis Vehicle definition/sizing and inte_auon Base heating analysis TA-2 study manager, vehicle definition and intem'ation Subcontracts management Svstems engineering Vehicle simuiation ana performance assessment Data reduction, group logistics Space OperaUons Vehicle health management Ground facilities definition Ground operauons CAD drawings Ground operauons Skunk Works Reliability, maintainability, and supportability assessment assessment assessments

Lockheed Martin Wayne Bovie Don Comeiius Man Chart Keim Holden Bob Kummerer Jim McCurrv Oral Prater Louis Rustenimrg Kevm Sagis lean Waiters Lockheed Martin Steve Black Steve Burns Gary Letchworm Arlene Reese Pat Scott Lockheed Wally Martin

Eshelman

Pratt & Whitney Paul Greasely Larry Tanner

Russian Russian

propulsion propulsion

assessment assessment

Jim Mf.Cutry, TA-2 Study Manager Huntsville. Alabama September 1995

Lockheed Missiles

Martin & SpaceHuntsville

..

111

ATSS Final Report Volume III

LMSC

P038190

NAS8-39208

Table of Contents
Section 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Introduction Work Heavy Heavy ................................................................................................................ Structure Vehicle Vehicle Dictionary .................................................................. Final Tool Report User's .................................... Guide ........................... Page I- 1 2-1 3-1 4-1

Breakdown Lift Launch Lift Launch

Cost Estimation Cost Estimation

Lockheed Missiles

Martin & SpaceHuntsville

iv

ATSS Final Volume III

Report

LMSC

P038190

NAS8-39208

1.0

Introduction

At the inception of the TA-2 contract, it was Lockheed's expressed desire to infuse an understanding and quantification of nonrecurring and recurring cost influences on the launch system design process. Lockheed thereby employed ECON, Inc., as a TA-2 subcontract partner to become a part of the concurrent engineering design process. The ECON support was performed principally by Messrs. John Skratt and Jon Graham. ECON was directly involved during the early brainstorming sessions in helping to define HLLV design requirements and design drivers. An HLLV cost assessment work breakdown structure was defined by ECON, and is provided in Section 2. Section 3 provides a report of ECON's preliminary cost analysis findings regarding the HLLV configurations. An HLLV cost estimation tool was also developed, along with a user's guide, and is provided in Section 4. During the course of the TA-2 contract, direction was given by the TA-2 COTR to de-emphasize the assessment of vehicle recurring and nonrecurring costs, and instead focus the limited contract funding resources on the vehicle design and operations assessments. Consequently, funding was de-allocated from ECON's TA-2 subcontract prior to ECON being able to fully complete the HLLV assessments, and ECON was unable to participate in the assessment of the SSTO concepts. The database of historic launch system costs that ECON possessed, and the understanding that ECON demonstrated regarding the assessment of advanced technologies and costing "new ways of doing business" were valuable assets to the TA-2 team that, unfortunately, were not sufficiently leveraged. Section 2 provides a copy of the launch system work breakdown structure that was developed by ECON, and constitutes the deliverable item for TA-2 Data Requirement Number 5, as identified in the NAS8-39208 Data Procurement Document. Section 3 provides a copy of ECON's final report, which constitutes the deliverable item for TA-2 Data Requirement Number 6. Section 4 provides a copy of the user's guide that ECON prepared for the use of their HLLV cost estimation tool.

Lockheed Missiles

Martin & SpaceHuntsville

1-1

ATSS Final Report Volume III

LMSC

P038190

NAS8-39208

2.0

Work

Breakdown

Structure

Dictionary

The following is the work breakdown structure (WBS) dictionary that was developed by ECON, Inc., for the TA-2 contract, to assess HLLV costs. The WBS dictionary constitutes the deliverable item for TA-2 Data Requirement Number 5, as identified in the NAS8-39208 Data Procurement Document.

Lockheed Missiles

Martin & SpaceHuntsville

2-1

ADVANCED SYSTEM
Heavy

TRANSPORTATION STUDIES (ATSS)


Vehicle
Area 2

Lift Launch
Technical

Concepts

HEAVY LIFT LAUNCH VEHICLE PARAMETRIC COST ANALYSIS


Life Cycle Cost Work Breakdown (SDRL Structure and Dictionary

Item 5)

Prepared

by:

ECON, Inc.
Purchase Order No. PLX8Y8670 Ref: 8670-019

27 April,

1994

Foreword

This Life Cycle Cost Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and WBS dictionary have been prepared in response to Subcontractor Data Requirement Item 5 of Purchase Order No. PLX8Y8670; Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle (HLLV) Parametric Cost Analysis; Year 1 (Basic). This report has been prepared Missiles and Space Company, by ECON, Inc. in support Inc., Huntsville. of Lockheed

Table

of Contents

1.0 Work Breakdown Structure ......................................................... 2.0 WBS Dictionary .............................................................................

1 ....... .4............

List of Tables Table Table 1 Subsystems 2 Hardware Generated by LMSC Sizing Routine End-Item Work Breakdown Structure .............. Z ............. 3

1.0 WORK BREAKDOWN

STRUCTURE

The work Breakdown Structure utilized under the Advanced Transportation System Studies (ATSS); Task Area 2 (TA-2), Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle (HLLV) Definition Study was developed based on generally accepted cost estimating principles. The driving structure for the WBS was the Launch Vehicle Sizing routine producing the mass properties of alternative vehicle designs. The sizing routine was utilized by Lockheed Missiles and Space Company, Inc. (LMSC) personnel to generate alternative mass properties for the various vehicle designs. The sizing routine provided the weight statement against which cost estimates were generated. This level is representative of the level of concept definition. Table 1 displays the hardware subsystems generated in the LMSC sizing routine. These hardware end-items were then reorganized structure grouped according to functionality and resulting WBS is shown in Table 2. into a WBS The similarity.

TABLE - 1 - Subsystems generated by LMSC sizing

routine

Stage

1 Fwd Skirt LO2 Tank Intertank Fuel Tank Aft Skirt TPS Range Safety TVC Engines Thrust Structure

Engine mount/gimbal/purge Feed/Pressurization system Avionics Interstage Contingency (@ 10%) Dry Weight Stage 2 Fwd Skirt LO2 Tank Intertank Fuel Tank Aft Skirt TPS Range TVC Safety

Engines Thrust Structure Engine mount/gimbal/purge Feed/Pressurization system Avionics Stage Sep/Ullage RCS Motors Contingency Dry Weight Motors

(@ 10%)

TABLE

2 Hardware

End-Item INTEGRATED FIRST STAGE

Work

Breakdown

Structure

1.1 i.i.i I.I.i.I 1.1.1.2 1.1.1.3 1.1.1.4 1.1.1.5 1.1.1.6 1.1.1.7 1.1.2 1.1.3 1.1.4 1.1.5 1.1.6 1.1.6.1 1.1.6.2 1.1.6.3 1.1.7 1.2 1.2.1 1.2.1.1 12.1.2 1.2.1.3 1.2.1.4 1.2.1.5 1.2.1.6 1.2.1.7 1.2.2 1.2.3 1.2.4 1.2.5 1.2.6 1.2.6.1 1.2.6.2 1.2.6.3 1.2.7 1.2.7.1 1.2.7.2 1.2.7.3

VEHICLE ELEMENT

STRUCTURES & MECHANISMS FUEL TANK OXIDIZER TANK FWD SKIRT INTERTANK AFT SKIRT THRUST STRUCTURE INTERSTAGE ELECTRICAL POWER & DISTRIBUTION AVIONICS THERMAL PROTECTION RANGE SAFETY MAIN PROPULSION ENGINE MOUNT/GIMBAL/PURGE FEED/PRESSURIZATION SYSTEM MAIN ENGINES AUXILIARY PROPULSION - TVC SECOND STAGE ELEMENT STRUCTURES & MECHANISMS FUEL TANK OXIDIZER TANK FWD SKIRT INTERTANK AFT SKIRT THRUST STRUCTURE INTERSTAGE ELECTRICAL POWER & DISTRIBUTION AVIONICS THERMAL PROTECTION RANGE SAFETY MAIN PROPULSION ENGINE MOUNT/GIMBAL/PURGE FEED/PRESSURIZATION SYSTEM MAIN ENGINES AUXILIARY PROPULSION AUXILIARY PROPULSION - RCS AUXILIARY PROPULSION -TVC AUXILIARY PROPULSION -

Ullage motors

2.0 WB$ DICTIONARY Following contained is the WBS dictionary for each in the HLLV Work Breakdown of the hardware Structure. end-items

1.0 This hardware

INTEGRATED element contains

VEHICLE the hardware related efforts and

materials required for the Research, development test and evaluation (RDT&E), and production of the total vehicle which cannot be allocated to individual hardware elements below the vehicle level. The element also includes elements associated with the integration, test 1.1 This hardware system engineering FIRST element and management ELEMENT the hardware related efforts and evaluation vehicle below the with total of the total launch vehicle.

STAGE sums

materials required for the Research, development test and (RDT&E), and production of the initial stage of the launch which cannot be allocated to individual hardware elements first stage level. the integration, launch vehicle. I.i.I This hardware

The element also includes elements associated test system engineering and management of the

STRUCTURES element sums

& MECHANISMS all efforts and materials subsystem primarily skirt thrust required for

the RDT&E, and production of the structure vehicle's first stage. This elements includes oxidizer tank, forward skirt, intertank, aft interstage 1.1. I. i FUEL TANK and tank

of the launch the fuel tank, structure and

This hardware element sums all efforts the RDT&E, and production of the fuel vehicle's first stage.

materials used by

required the launch

for

1.1.1.2

OXIDIZER

TANK materials tank used required by the for launch

This hardware element sums all efforts and the RDT&E, and production of the oxidizer vehicle's 1.1.1.3 first stage. FORWARD SKIRT

This hardware element sums all efforts and materials the RDT&E, and production of the forward skirt used vehicle's 1.1.1.4 first stage. INTERTANK materials used by

required by the

for launch

This hardware element sums all efforts and the RDT&E, and production of the intertank vehicle's 1.1.1.5 This hardware first stage. AFT element SKIRT sums all efforts of the aft and skirt

required the launch

for

materials used by the

required launch

for

the RDT&F, and production vehicle's first stage. 1.1.1.6 This hardware THRUST element

STRUCTURE sums all efforts of the thrust and materials required used by the for launch

the RDT&E, and production vehicle's first stage, 1.1.1.7 This hardware INTERSTAGE element sums

structure

all efforts of the thrust

and

materials

required used by the

for launch

the RDT&E, and production vehicle's first stage. 1.1.2 ELECTRICAL

structure

POWER

& DISTRIBUTION

N/A - The electrical power and distribution subsystem was not separated out in this analysis. The weights and costs associated the electrical power and distribution subsystem were instead allocated to the specific subsystems (e.g., avionics, main engines) based on their specific power requirements.

with

1.1.3

AVIONICS

This hardware element sums all efforts and materials required for the RDT&E, and production of the avionics used by the launch vehicle's first stage. This element includes guidance and control, instrumentation, and data management components 1.1.4 THERMAL PROTECTION required system for used

This hardware element sums all efforts and materials the RDT&E, and production of the thermal protection the launch vehicle's first stage. 1.1.5 RANGE SAFETY

by

This hardware element sums all efforts and materials required for the RDT&E, and production of the range safeW system used by the launch vehicle's first stage. 1.1.6 MAIN PROPULSION

This hardware element sums all efforts and materials required for the RDT&E, and production of the main propulsion system used by the launch vehicle's first stage. Included in this element are the engine mount/gimbal and purge system, the feed and pressurization system and the mare engines of the launch vehicle's first stage. 1.1.6.1 ENGINE MOUNT/GIMBAL/PURGE for purge

This hardware element sums all efforts and materials required the RDT&E and production of the engine mount; gimbal; and system used by the launch vehicle's first stage. 1.1.6.2 FEED/PRESSURIZATION SYSTEM

This hardware element sums all efforts and materials required for the RDT&E and production of the feed and pressurization system used by the launch vehicle's first stage.

1.1.6.3

MAIN ENGINES

This hardware element sums all efforts and materials required for the RDT&E and production of the main engines used by the launch vehicle's first stage. 1.1.7 This hardware AUXILIARY PROPULSION - TVC element sums
for or stage.

all efforts and materials required the RDT&E and production of the auxiliary propulsion system thrust vector control system used by the launch vehicle's first

1.2

SECOND

STAGE ELEMENT

This hardware element sums the hardware related efforts and materials required for the Research, development test and evaluation (RDT&E), and production of the second stage of the launch vehicle which cannot be allocated to individual hardware elements below the second stage level. The element also includes elements associated with the integration, test system engineering and management of the second stage of the launch vehicle. 1.2.1 STRUCTURES & MECHANISMS

This hardware element sums all efforts and materials required for the RDT&E, and production of the structure subsystem of the launch vehicle's second stage. This elements includes primarily the fuel tank, oxidizer tank, forward skirt, intertank, aft skirt, and thrust structure. 1.2.1.1 FUEL TANK materials required used by the launch for

This hardware element sums all efforts and the RDT&E, and production of the fuel tank vehicle's second stage. 1.2.1.2 OXIDIZER TANK

This hardware element sums all efforts and materials the RDT&E, and production of the oxidizer tank used vehicle's second stage.

required for by the launch

1.2.1.3 This hardware

FORWARD element production stage. INTERTANK sums

SKIRT all efforts of the and materials skirt used required by the for launch

the RDT&E, and vehicle's second 1.2.1.4

forward

This hardware element sums all efforts and the RDT&E, and production of the intertank vehicle's 1.2.1.5 This hardware second stage. AFT element production stage. THRUST hardware element production stage. ELECTRICAL SKIRT sums all efforts of the aft and skirt

materials used by

required the launch

for

materials used by the

required launch

for

the RDT&E, and vehicle's second 1.2.1.6 This

STRUCTURE sums all efforts of the thrust and materials required used by the for launch

the RDT&E, and vehicle's second 1.2.2

structure

POWER

& DISTRIBUTION

N/A - The electrical power and distribution subsystem was not separated out in this analysis. The weights and costs associated the electrical power and distribution subsystem were instead allocated to the specific subsystems (e.g., avionics, main engines) based on their specific power requirements. 1.2.3 AVIONICS materials used by required the launch and

with

This hardware element sums all efforts and the RDT&E, and production of the avionics vehicle's second instrumentation, stage. This element and data management

for control,

includes guidance components.

1.2.4

THERMAL

PROTECTION required system for used

This hardware element sums all efforts and materials the RDT&E, and production of the thermal protection the launch vehicle's second stage. 1.2.5 RANGE SAFETY

by

This hardware element sums all efforts and materials required for the RDT&E, and production of the range safety system used by the launch vehicle's second stage. 1.2.6 MAIN PROPULSION

This hardware element sums all efforts and materials required for the RDT&E, and production of the main propulsion system used by the launch vehicle's first stage. Included in this element are the engine mount/gimbal and purge system, the feed and pressurization system and the main engines of the launch vehicle's second stage. 1.2.6.1 ENGINE MOUNT/GIMBAL/PURGE for purge

This hardware element sums all efforts and materials required the RDT&E and production of the engine mount; gimbal; and system used by the launch vehicle's second stage. 1.2.6.2 FEED/PRESSURIZATION SYSTEM

This hardware element sums all efforts and materials required for the RDT&E and production of the feed and pressurization system used by the launch vehicle's second stage. 1.2.6.3 MAIN ENGINES and materials engines used required for by the launch

This hardware element sums all efforts the RDT&E and production of the main vehicle's second stage.

1.2.7

AUXILIARY

PROPULSION materials propulsion required system for used are and the

This hardware element sums all efforts and the RDT&E and production of the auxiliary by the launch vehicle's second stage. the reaction control system, the thrust ullage motors. 1.2.7.1 AUXILIARY Included vector

in this element control system

PROPULSION

-RCS

This hardware element sums all efforts and materials required for the RDT&E and production of the reaction control system used by the launch vehicle's second stage.

1.2.7.2 This hardware

AUXILIARY element sums

PROPULSION all efforts

-TVC and materials control required system for used

the RDT&E and production of the thrust by the launch vehicle's second stage. 1.2.7.3 AUXILIARY PROPULSION

vector

- Ullage

motors required by the for launch

This hardware element sums all efforts and materials the RDT&E and production of the uUage motors used vehicle's second stage.

10

ATSS Final Report Volume III

LMSC

P038190

NAS8-39208

3.0

Heavy

Lift

Launch

Vehicle

Cost

Estimation

Final

Report

This section TA-2 Data Document.

provides a copy of ECON's final report, Requirement Number 6, as identified

which constitutes the deliverable item for in the NAS8-39208 Data Procurement

Lockheed Missiles

Martin & SpaceHuntsville

3-1

ADVANCED

TRANSPORTATION

SYSTEM
Heavy Lift

STUDIES
Launch
Technical

(ATSS)
Concepts

Vehicle
Area 2

HEAVY LIFT PARAMETRIC

LAUNCH COST

VEHICLE ANALYSIS

Final
(SDRL

Report
Item 4)

Prepared ECON, Purchase

by: Inc. PLX8Y8670

Order No. Ref: 8670-019

27

April,

1994

Foreword

This Final Report has been prepared in response to Subcontractor Requirement Item 4 of Purchase Order No. PLX8Y8670; Heavy Vehicle (HLLV) Parametric Cost Analysis; Year 1 (Basic). This report has been Missiles and Space prepared Company, by ECON, Inc. Inc., Huntsville. in support of

Data Lift Launch

Lockheed

Table

of

Contents

1.0

Introduction

&

Executive

Summary

...................................................

1 2 2

2.0 Cost Methodology 2.1 2.2 2.2.1 2.2.2 2.2.3 2.2.4 Cost

........................................................................................ Rationale ...............................................................

Methodology

The Heavy HLLVCM

Lift Launch Vehicle Cost Model (HLLVCM) .......... 3 Description ............................................................................. 4 4 6 9 1 0 1 1

HLLVCM Algorithms ............................................................................. HLLVCM Inputs ....................................................................................... Model Outputs .......................................................................................... and Assumptions ..............................................................

2.3 Groundrules 3.0 Conclusions

....................................................................................................

List

of

Tables

Table Table Table Table

1 - HLLVCM Algorithms ..................................................................... 2 - HLLVCM Inputs ............................................................................... 3 Culture Variable Values .............................................................. 4 - State-of-the-Art Variable ...........................................................

5 6 7 8

1.0

INTRODUCTION

&

EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY activities conducted by ECON, Inc. under Purchase Order Cost Analysis; tasks: and life cycle Year 1 (Basic).

This report documents the Inc. in support of Lockheed PLX8Y86 Under the 70 F, Heavy Purchase * Lift Order,

cost model and estimating Missiles & Space Company, Launch ECON Vehicle was Parametric assigned four

primary

Assist Lockheed selection criteria costs Assist Lockheed transportation

in identification of subsystem requirements that affect advanced transportation system in the identification of candidate advanced

configurations cost estimates of the most favorable vehicle

Conduct parametric engineering Assist Lockheed in the selection configurations.

Toward session launch sessions objectives involved

this with vehicle were

end, ECON other team conducted. both an and design

personnel members The first

participated and conducted Two primary involved and

in concurrent systems engineering a series of studies for alternative concurrent general launch viewpoint. Single Stage systems vehicle The engineering design second (SSTO)

configurations. acquisition operations

from the

operations

of alternative

to Orbit

configurations. Cost Estimates provided to Lockheed under this effort included Heavy Lift First of

Lunar Outpost configurations; assessment of stage diameter minimal Additionally, teleconferences For a number from the DDT&E ECON as a primary participated

a variety impact on goal

of 50k vehicle a selected 50k

configurations; concept, and of a new to regular launch

an an analysis system. and

in development contributed

in and TA-2

briefings

weekly

concerning of the effort, few reasons, cost the

the a analysis

study. analysis out this for and under Purchase further firm this conclusions effort. Order analysis was and Part are way significantly not

thorough carried under funds

possible through

funding remaining

reduced, leaving documentation.

Among from concepts was year under independent of the

other and

reasons data to use verification or

for which trade cost or

the

lack studies

of to

conclusions scrubs be and by conducted.

were iterations outside other

several of sources than are and Additionally,

redirection's the system ECON with no for the produced

customer

prevented estimates data these

required

provided normalization outside

adjusting generally

economics. significantly

Because different

estimates assumptions

groundrules,

methodologies,

the resulting answers are generally not comparable. In outside estimates were provided for the main propulsion

most cases, the systems (MPS) to new produced to the

of

alternative concepts. The MPS is the primary cost contributor systems. Hence, the answers and results of the cost estimates under this study are most likely skewed in manners unknown analyst and no firm conclusions can be drawn.

2,0 2.1

COST Cost

METHODOLOGY Rationale cost estimation: bottoms-up and was selected for use in this study for conceptual definition studies

Methodology

There are two primary methods of parametric. The parametric method was deemed much more appropriate the bottoms-up approach. There are a number foremost, downstream

as it than

of reasons for selecting costs can grow rapidly

parametric after a

costing. system is

First and defined.

The best leverage for these costs design and programmatic decisions of trade studies can identify bad are committed. However, and the early in a program, schedule uncertain. the

is early in the program before major have been cast in stone. The conduct or costly approaches before the dollars

system

definition

is

particularly

vague

Parametric costing provides a sophisticated tool to runout of costs using available system definition. studies to evaluate and compare alternative design the ultimate concept. Finally, it provides a method link between the product, with for the schedule and the

scope the most likely It also permit trade options, thus improving to establish a traceable

cost.

ECON, in parametric that"

discussions cost models

Lockheed this study.

personnel, decided to utilize it internal This decision was based on the fact

It has been used successfully in many previous efforts There is no subscription or use fee thus minimizing cost It is appropriate for concept definition studies ECON personnel are familiar with it's use

ECON of minimizing new

possessed vehicle the

an cost

existing and and other effort

calibrated applicable required

data to

base estimate

for

this thereby costs

model of

launch

subsystems,

concepts.

2.2 The

The point

Heavy

Lift

Launch for the

Vehicle cost model

Cost used

Model

(HLLVCM) is the ECON proprietary

of departure

in this study

Technology model that (JSC). model product of input

Forecasting Cost Model (TFCM) was originally derived by ECON is, has and model refers TFCM can algorithms spent algorithms

TFCM is a general-case for the NASA Johnson

acquisition cost Space Center

The term general-case is not limited. That be applying variables. basic ECON premise

to the fact that the product range for the estimate the cost of any manufactured against that a product amount were that is specified under the by a set original of its internal resources

its costing

a significant

refining the JSC contract. A general-case

developed

model

can

be narrowed

down

to a special-case

model

by restricting cost costs

the product focus. ECON focused and more suit the historical launch vehicle model. cost was Due to the definition Acquisition of the cost estimated.

revised the original TFCM algorithms to data to arrive at a launch vehicle specific available both the to ECON, DDT&E only and the acquisition production

systems includes

of a system. Under this contract effort, portions of the launch the vehicle cost forecasting module the Heavy prevented costs). phase of a

were ported Lift Launch any further

from Lotus 1-2-3 to Excel for Vehicle Cost Model (HLLVCM). cost was model designed development to provide (e.g., cost

Macintosh Contract

and renamed fund limitations of operations in the conceptual The valid

incorporation estimates early

The TFCM

program and hence requires relatively sparse system definition. with a minimum input. The model is structured to generate when provided input At the At the At The also choice on the the data total major sets stage at any level level level depends on the depth data. process of three typical levels:

model operates cost estimates

subsystem

subsystem level

of which availability use in the being

to select

of the

vehicle

design

and

of corroborative parametric hyper This plane.

historical model is the

Central The neutral on the

to the point model

of this cost used.

of data input neutral the

normalization. parameter to a of items point is dependent

process

of data

normalization

is the

extrapolation appropriate involves

of an

This

normalization

neutralization

such

as economics

(e.g.

same

year

dollars),

quantity

produced

to account

for

economies of scale and production efficiencies, and culture or environment. When all these analyst arrives at a comparable reference point. neutral point as the the model as a seed parameters complexity factor for the generation distances on

weight, state-of-the-art, schedule, factors have been neutralized, the For this model, we refer to this by index. This point technologies where of the cost is then used the cost hyper plane.

or difficulty of similar each

lie at different

dimension

2.2.1 Following use the SDRL

HLLVCM is a description HLLVCM. For 11; Life Cycle

Description of the cost model, additional information Cost Models. it's algorithms on the use and inputs required of the model, please to see

Item

2.2.2 Five principle

HLLVCM algorithms recurring

Algorithms perform the computations costs, described values and in the the HLLVCM non listed isolate model. recurring in Table 1. The the calculation Four

of these

determine

(production)

fifth,

(DDT&E) costs. Factors described logic.

These algorithms are are arbitrary interim

below and used to help

Factor Establish Modify

E1

(Recurring difficulty

Production) (complexity) index Production) improvement Production) Index

cost from product cost for culture Factor E2

(specification) (Recurring

Modify

cost for technology/process Factor E3 (Recurring influences electronics (Recurring

Modify Modify

cost for weight cost for percent Factor E4

Production)

Modify

cost for quantity Factor

in production. (Non-recurring)

DDT&E

Modify Modify

costs for State-of-the-art cost for quantity of test-articles

Table Factor of the estimates El: This first unit this factor cost initially This on

HLLVCM the recurring

Algorithms cost with also of a theoretical no the intrinsic program first interest. culture. pound E1 (all years

calculates product

produced. based are discussed or later than

is a hypothetical complexity

cost and

input variables that are earlier factor, In the or less attributed next than step, one

later). Next, factor the model base year improvements, for the

E1 is modified (1987). This generates the

for technology technology down Factor E2. either greater

to production factor pound,

E2 is modified the outcome

influence step

of weights E3, which

than

of this

is Factor

is the

models is the total

theoretical determined recurring RDT&E

first production and the cost acquisition costs are cost. derived and the

unit. In Factor of all production

E4 calculations, units is estimated.

a learning slope This provides

by

modifying of non

Factor

E3 to account test units

for state required.

of development

(state-of-the-art)

quantity

recurring

2.2.3 The

HLLVCM input

Inputs variables are listed in Table 2. One variable, weight, is a

HLLVCM

physical factors. follows. the are

quantity.. Two others, quantity and IOC date, are measurable programmatic The remaining variables are model peculiar and may be explained as The state-of-the-art variable is an integer covering a linear scale from 1 (off conceptual) This is a dimensionless variable, that is, there

shelf) to 12 (highly no units of measure.

NAME

EXPANSION

Weight

Dry Weight

Including

Contingency

Culture

Acquisition and Operational GE PRICE model's

environment; similar Platform variable

to the

_OTA

State-of-the-Art

(see explanation

below)

Quantity

1. Numbers

of Whole Flight 2. Equivalent

Articles Delivered units used in test

in Prod Phase

IOC

Year of initial operational

capability

Difficulty

Degree

of Product

Sophistication,

as Measured

at the IOC Date

Slope

Historical

Rate of Annual

Complexity

Growth

Table

2 - HLLVCM

Inputs

Weight under indicator vary

is an input study. greatly Weight, with for cost

variable when type tendencies. the

used The of item

as an indicator used in the of weight analyzed. impact being

of the context

relative of this has

size been

of the

item an to

properly

model,

provides

on cost

established

Table 3 displays the available This variable is similar to the the paper trail and variable. Additionally, oversight, environments. documentation

and appropriate values for GE PRICE Model's Platform. the influence to develop the amount on cost systems required it reflects

the "Culture" It has also the in alternative built

Variable. been called

It captures

specifications, into a system.

of reliability

Through respective environments Table the-Art engineering off-the-shelf each 4

data

normalization are utilized

and

the

calibration

process,

cost

differences

for various

environments can be

neutralized as analogies of appropriate the relative

so that data obtained from in all other environments. State-of-the-art differences in the variables. complexity

displays parameter

a description indicated

The

State-of-

of the

task. The HLLVCM at one extreme, and are also provided where equivalent

uses a twelve level scale to differentiate between "principles observed" at the other. Examples for as well as the equivalent NASA/OAST technology

category

readiness

applicable..

Variable

Content

Equiv PRICE Platform

1.00

Ground

Based

Equipment

1.0

1.15

Ship borne

or Ground

Mobile

1.4

1.30

Airborne,

Mil-SPEC

1.8

1.67

Space

borne,

Unmanned

2.0

1.80

Space

borne,

Manned

2.5

Table

3 - Culture

Variable

Values

IOC,

or year

of initial in terms

operational

capability,

indicates

the and

maturity processes

of a product's as well as

development

of improvements time now and Advancement model's logic. parameter its cost. complexity as specific is plotted index

in methods

performance between both the Technology impact The the inherent difficulty design in the

the IOC of the system. It is utilized to calculate slope and the productivity improvement

or complexity of an item system, difficulty and

is the growth. subsystems, over

link

between ECON has

the has found

inherent that unique each

difficulty a and

in

In previous

efforts, ECON time.

demonstrated slope

pattern individual shape

of time-dependent as well if the

demonstrate

Rank

Explanation

Equiv NASA Tech rating

Virtually 100% of drawings exist and need not be renumbered; this is a continuation of an existing product. Example: OV-105 as derived from OV104 Predominant renumbered. Majority Example: 4 Roughly Example: number of drawings exist; drawings may have been Example: Saturn S-IVB stage as derived from S-IVB/1B

No Parallel

No Parallel

of drawings exist; minor resizing of hardware is possible. Gemini Spacecraft Structure as derived from Mercury half of drawings exist; significant Gemini crew systems as derived resizing of hardware from Mercury is possible.

No Parallel

No Parallel

Only a minority of drawings exist; however, drawings that do not exist are based on a familiar product line. Example: Gemini electrical power system, as derived from Mercury. Drawing are essentially new; however to exist. Example: Apollo environmental Gemini a design point-of-departure control system as derived is known from

No Parallel

Drawings are new; the mission or the design concept are, in part, unfamiliar. Example: Apollo Lunar Module landing structure, as derived from Surveyor. Drawings Example: are new; either the mission Gemini Fuel Cells or the design concept is unfamiliar.

Drawings are new; both the mission and the design concepts are unfamiliar. Example: Apollo Command Service Module/Lunar Module guidance, navigation, as an extrapolation from Gemini guidance. Drawings Example: are new and the design concepts transcend the state-of-the-art. Apollo Command Module thermal protection

10

11

Drawings are new & the design concepts transcend state-of-the-art. In addition; multiple design paths are to be followed. Example: Apollo mission as envisioned at the time the manned lunar landing goal was announced Drawings are new and the design concepts transcend state-of-the-art. In addition; only the principles of the mission are known. Example: manned lunar landing mission as viewed before Sputnik.

12

Table

4 - State-of-the-Art

Variable

Unlike

the

GE

PRICE

models

Complexity

Factor, weight, factor. the

which CF used

is highly

correlated is a

to other

inputs such completely An important the model. extrapolation

as specification isolated and

level and dimensionless

in HLLVCM

features result from the use of this By creating for any given technology of this curve to future operational

complexity factor a complexity-time dates produces

as structured plot, the

in

a prediction

of how is

complexity - and hence cost referred to as the complexity ECON analogous correspond Cost WBS subsystems utilized its existing

- will be experienced in the future. This extrapolation slope, or growth of complexity over time. base in this of complexities study. The and slopes generated used Cycle from

data

subsystems

for use

hardware

end-items

to the Work Breakdown and Dictionary. Included used STS STS in this Orbiter External D-1A D-1T Tank study were:

Structure provided in SDRL Item 5, Life in the historical analogous systems and

Centaur Centaur

Agena-Gemini Agena-Standard Agena-Ascent Saturn IV-B Stage Saturn II Stage Titan IIID Delta 3920 RL-10 Engine J-2 Engine F-1 Engine SSME engine

2.2.4 The HLLVCM acquisition recurring indirect system

Model generates cost into

Outputs acquisition Design, costs Further, costs are for divided the selected Test into and direct system. Evaluation and indirect. It breaks (DDT&E) The management. and checkout. and

both

Development,

production.

costs include items such as Systems level test, and system and subsystem

engineering, program integration/assembly

2.3

GROUNDRULES are the during All

AND

ASSUMPTIONS and Assumptions used for the cost estimates

Following conducted

Groundrules this study. presented B New

costs

in FY Start Costs Mass

925s Escalation include Properties table used and to Normalize $s

NASA Current Weights Holden Mission supplied flights

Code

Estimated based on of LMSC Model by over for

DDT&E supplied

Production by Mr. Keith

50K

vehicle Austin. Time

based Model Horizon space all

on

STS/PLS 101

Model 50K vehicle

Mr. Gene 2003-2010 level set of

includes:

Specification With the

at manned Engines,

due

to

PLS

Mission two

exception Test

Subsystems

Assumed

equivalent Engines test Government When

Articles. case by DDT&E Government or case basis costs Cost data to "match"

articles handled on or Aerojet) supplied ECON utilized year for in

directed,

figures

and

conducted other than No

no independent for constant up" not ranking used used

verification economics. engines costing to be

normalization

"technology impact

(see

HLLVCM

description)

Schedule

State-of-the-art know No

assumed

new

drawings

with

point-of-departure. government "wraps" included in cost estimates

10

3.0 For

CONCLUSIONS a number from of reasons, the cost a thorough analysis carried under funds analysis out this for and under Purchase further firm this conclusions effort. was and Part are way not

possible

through the effort, the funding reduced, leaving few remaining documentation.

Order analysis

significantly

Among other reasons for the lack of conclusions were several redirection's from the customer which prevented scrubs of the data or trade studies to be conducted. Additionally, ECON was required to use cost estimates provided by outside sources with no independent verification or data normalization other than adjusting for the year of economics. Because these outside estimates are generally produced under significantly different groundrules, assumptions and methodologies, the resulting answers are generally not comparable. In most cases, the outside estimates were provided for the main propulsion systems (MPS) of alternative concepts. The MPS is the primary cost contributor to new systems. Hence, under this study analyst. the answers and results are most likely skewed of the cost in manners estimates unknown produced to the

11

Rank 1

Explanation Virtually 100% of drawings exist and need not be renumbered; this is a continuation of an existing product. Example: OV-105 as derived from OV-104 Predominant renumbered. Majority Example: Roughly possible. number of drawings exist; drawings may have been Example: Saturn S-IVB stage as derived from S-IVB/1B

EqmvNASA Tech rating No Parallel

No Parallel

of drawings exist; minor resizing of hardware is possible. Gemini Spacecraft Structure as derived from Mercury half of drawings exist; significant resizing Example: Gemini crew systems as derived of hardware is from Mercury are

No Parallel

No Parallel

Only a minority of drawings exist; however, drawings that do not exist based on a familiar product line. Example: Gemini electrical power system, as derived from Mercury. Drawing are essentially new; however a design known to exist. Example: Apollo environmental from Gemini point-of-departure control system

No Parallel

is as derived

Drawings are new; the mission or the design concept are, in part, unfamiliar. Example: Apollo Lunar Module landing structure, as derived from Surveyor. Drawings Example: are new; either the mission Gemini Fuel Cells or the design concept is unfamiliar.

Drawings unfamiliar. guidance, Drawings Example:

are new; both the mission and the design concepts are Example: Apollo Command Service Module/Lunar Module navigation, as an extrapolation from Gemini guidance. are new and the design concepts transcend the state-of-the-art. Apollo Command Module thermal protection

10

11

Drawings are new & the design concepts transcend state-of-the-art. In addition; multiple design paths are to be followed. Example: Apollo mission as envisioned at the time the manned lunar landing goal was announced Drawings are new and the design concepts transcend state-of-the-art. In addition; only the principles of the mission are known. Example: manned lunar landing mission as viewed before Sputnik.

12

Table

4 - State-of-the-Art

Variable

Unlike other

the inputs

GE PRICE such isolated features

models

Complexity level

Factor, and weight, factor.

which the

is highly CF used

correlated in HLLVCM

to is a

as specification

completely An important in the model..

and dimensionless result from the

use of this

complexity

factor

as structured plot, the of

By creating

for any given

technology

a complexity-time

extrapolation of this curve to future operational dates how complexity - and hence cost - will be experienced extrapolation over time. is referred to as the complexity slope,

produces a prediction in the future. This or growth of complexity

2.4

Model

Outputs generates acquisition Design, costs for the selected Test system. It breaks (DDT&E)

The HLLVCM acquisition cost

into both

Development,

and Evaluation

and recurring production. The indirect costs include management, and checkout. system level

Further, costs are divided into direct and indirect. items such as Systems engineering, program test, and system and subsystem integration/assembly

_.0

INSTALLING

HLLVGM

Running this cost model requires a Macintosh Computer equipped with sufficient space on the hard disk and Microsoft Excel 4.0. Simply drag the folder entitled HLLVCM onto the hard drive. To access the cost model, please see Section 5 - Typical steps to Generate a Cost Estimate.

4.0

ITEMS

FROM

THE

HLLVCM

MENU

& TOOLBAR

ICONS

Following is a description of the HLLVCM Menu items and the functionality of the customized Toolbar associated with HLLVCM. These items have been provided to improve the ease of use of the model. For additional information on using menu and toolbar items, refer to your Excel User's Manual. ADD NEW ELEMENT - Adds a new element to the WBS. Select An for

the line above the spot to insert the new element. input dialog box will appear prompting the user 7

inputs. name

The Work is required!

Breakdown

Structure

(WBS)

DELETE ELEMENT - Deletes elements from the WBS. Select line or lines to be deleted. There is no confirmation or undo!

the

MOVE ELEMENT TO THE RIGHT - Moves elements up one level in the WBS. Select the element(s) to be raised. The WBS will be renumbered. Families will automatically be moved. MOVE ELEMENT TO THE LEFT - Moves elements down in the WBS. Select the element(s) to be lowered. will be renumbered. Families will automatically moved EDIT INPUT - Allows user to edit element to be edited. HIDE/VIEW INPUT COLUMNS element inputs. Select one level The WBS be

- Hides

or unhides

input

columns on the

UPDATE COST FORMULAS - Creates all the cost formulas worksheet. Select this to calculate the cost estimate. PRINT COST REPORTS - Prints out cost report

CALIBRATE HISTORICAL DATABASE worksheet" "HLLVCM historical must first be opened. (Not

- "Calibrates database".

the The worksheet

Operational)

VIEW LEAST SQUARES GRAPH - Given a set of data points, calculates the least squares fit and displays the graph statistics (Not Operational). VIEW SPREAD COST - Calculates and phase by year (Not Operational). displays costs spread

and

by

5.0

TYPICAL

STEPS TO GENERATE

COST ESTIMATE the user would go can utilize the model Complexity values No historical database Final

Following is a description of the typical steps through to generate a cost estimate. The user in an iterative fashion to generate appropriate over time based on their own historical data. development was conducted under information concerning complexity Report submitted under SDRL Item 1) 2) Open the Excel worksheet

this study. For additional values, please refer to the #4 of this study. named "HLLVCM.MACROS"

Select new file A template

worksheet

will

appear.

"3) Select the menu


"HLLVCM

item "ADD NEW ELEMENT" from


or click once on the add element

the
icon.

MENU:"

An input data dialog box will be displayed Enter data inputs and click DONE The worksheet will be updated and the WBS automatically renumbered

will

be

4) To manipulate

the WBS select an element and choose the "MOVE ELEMENT RIGHT" or "MOVE ELEMENT LEFT" item from the HLLVCM MENU or click the ARROW icons The selected element(s) down in the WBS. will be moved one level up or

"5)

To edit Element MENU.

data, and

either choose

enter it on the "EDIT INPUT"

worksheet from the

or select HLLVCM

An

An input data Enter the data The the selected data

dialog box wiU be displayed. and click DONE. Element will the be updated. cost estimating formulas

"6)

Once need from

in entered,

to be updated. the HLLVCM formulas the

Choose "UPDATE COST FORMULAS" MENU or click the UPDATING Icon. are cost updated and calculated estimate.

All of the

generating

7)

If any inputs are changed or the WBS is modified must update the formulas. To print results choose "PRINT COST REPORT" HLLVCM MENU or click the REPORT Icon. The printout is the WBS and cost results.

the

user

"8)

from

the

10

Description Following HLLVCM Add is a desription peculiar icons. New Element

of the of the

HLLVCM selectable

Menu items from

Items thje

& Icons HLLVCM Menu and

9]-

Adds

a new

element

to the WBS.

Select

the

line

above the spot to insert the new element. prompting the user for inputs. The WBS Delete lines Move Element []]Deletes THERE elements

An input dialog box will Name is required. the WBS. Select

appear,

from

the line

or

to be deleted. Element

IS NO CONFIRMATION ["_)]Moves element will

OR UNDO! up one level in the WBS. The en-

to the Right

Select the Element(s) to be raised. The WBS tire family will automatically be moved. Move

be renumbered.

Element to the Left [_"]Moves elements down one level in the WBS. Select the element(s) to be lowered. The WBS will be renumbered. Entire Families will automatically be moved.

Edit Input edited

[I]

- Allows

user

to edit

element

inputs.

Select

element

to be

Hide/View Input Columns columns in spreadsheet Update worksheet. Print Cost Cost Formulas Select Reports _

[the

eyeball

icon]-

Hides

or unhidesd

input

- Creates to calculate

all the cost

cost

formauls

on the

this option _]Prints

estimate. cost report.

out preformatted

View spread

Spread

Costs by

[not year.

functional]

- Calculates

and

displaysd

costs

by phase

ATSS Final Report Volume III

LMSC

P038190

NAS8-39208 Launch Vehicle Cost Estimation Tool User's Guide

4.0

Heavy

Lift

This section provides a copy of the user's guide that ECON prepared cost estimation tool. An electronic copy of the tool may be obtained Gary Johnson, at MSFC.

for the use of their HLLV from the TA-2 COTR, Mr.

Lockheed Missiles

Martin & SpaceHuntsville

4-1

ADVANCED SYSTEM
Heavy

TRANSPORTATION STUDIES (ATSS)


Vehicle
Area 2

Lift Launch
Technical

Concepts

HEAVY LIFT LAUNCH VEHICLE PARAMETRIC COST ANALYSIS


Life Cycle Cost Model Instructions (SDRL Item 11)

Prepared by:

ECON, Inc.
Purchase Order No. PLX8Y8670 Ref: 8670-019

27 April,

1994

Foreword

These instructions and descriptions accompany the delivery of the Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle Cost Model (HLLVCM). The HLLVCM has been developed in response to Subcontractor Data Requirement Item 11 of Purchase Order No. PLX8Y8670; Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle Parametric Cost Analysis; Year 1 (Basic). This report has been prepared Missiles and Space Company, by ECON, Inc. in support inc., Huntsville. of Lockheed

Table

of Contents

1.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 3.0 4.0 S.O

Introduction

.............................................................................

1 .............. .1 2 ........... 2 ........... .4 ............ 7.............. .7. ........... 7.. ._t...

The Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle Cost Model (HLLVCM) ....... HLLVCM Description ............................................................... HLLVCM Algorithms ............................................................... HLLVCM Inputs ....................................................................... Model Outputs, ......................................................................... Installing HLLVCM .................................................................. Items from the HLLVCM menu & Toolbar Icons .................. Typical Steps to Generate a Cost Estimate ...........................

List

of Tables

Table Table Table Table

1 2 3 4

HLLVCM Algorithms ........................................................ HLLVCM Inputs ................................................................. Culture Variable Values ................................................... State-of-the-Art Variable ................................................

2L ......... .4 ........... 5 ........ _ .......

1,0

INTRODUCTION

The following is submitted, in conjunction with the accompanying Cost Model Software under SDRL Item 11, Life Cycle Cost Models. model used for this study has been title the Heavy Iift Launch Vehicle Cost Model (HLLVCM).

The

Some activity under this contract was used to port the existing model algorithms from Lotus 1-2-3 to Microsoft Excel, generate Excel macro statements and improve the user interface of the cost model. No model functional or algorithm development or historical data research, normalization or calibration was conducted under this Purchase Order. The accompanying property of ECON, cost Inc. model should be treated as proprietary

2.0 The Heavy Lift Launch

Vehicle

Cost Model (HLLVCM)

The point of departure for the cost model used in this study is the ECON proprietary Technology Forecasting Cost Model (TFCM) TFCM is a general-case acquisition cost model that was originally derived by ECON for the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). The term general-case model refers to the fact that the product range for the model is not limited. That is, TFCM can estimate the cost of any manufactured product be applying its costing algorithms against a product that is specified by a set of input variables. ECON has spent a significant amount of its internal resources refining the basic premise and algorithms that were developed under the original JSC contract. A general-case model can be narrowed down to a special-case model by restricting the product focus. ECON focused and revised the original TFCM algorithms to more suit the historical launch vehicle data to arrive at a launch vehicle specific cost model. Due to the definition of the systems available to ECON, only the acquisition cost was estimated. Acquisition cost includes both the DDT&E and production costs of a system. Under this contract effort, portions of the launch vehicle cost forecasting module were ported from Lotus 1-2-3 to Excel for the Macintosh and renamed the Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle Cost Model (H'LLVCM). Contract fund limitations prevented any further cost model development (e.g., incorporation of operations costs).

The TFCM of a program operates estimates

was

designed hence a minimum provided

to provide requires input. input stage The data level

cost

estimates sparse at any

early system of three

in the

conceptual The valid

phase model cost

and

relatively model sets

definition. to generate typical levels:

with when

is structured

At the At the At the The and choice also of which

total

major subsystem subsystem level level to select

level

depends

on the historical is the

depth

of the

vehicle

design

on the availability to the use of data in the point of this cost

of corroborative parametric hyper plane. model is the This

data. of data of an input neutral involves dollars), normalization. parameter is the quantity weight, factors point. or difficulty of on each For to a point

Central The neutral

process

process

normalization

extrapolation appropriate

dependent neutralization

on the model being used. This normalization of items such as economics (e.g. same year

produced to account for economies of scale and production efficiencies, state-of-the-art, schedule, and culture or environment. When all these have this index. similar dimension been model, This neutralized, we refer point of the is then where cost hyper the to this analyst neutral the cost plane. used arrives point at a comparable as the complexity lie at different as a seed reference factor generation distances

by the model parameters

for the

technologies

2.1

HLLVCM

Description model, it's information algorithms and inputs required on the use of the model, please

Following to use the see SDRL

is a description of the cost HLLVCM. For additional Item 11; Life Cycle Cost

Models.

2.2 Five Four Factors logic.

HLLVCM principle of these costs. described

Algorithms algorithms perform recurring algorithms arbitrary the are interim computations costs, below used described values in the and and to help HLLVCM the fifth, listed isolate model. non the recurring 1. The calculation

determine These are

(production)

(DDT&E)

in Table

Factor Establish Modify

E1 (Recurring

Production) (complexity) index Production) improvement Production) Index

cost from product cost for culture Factor

difficulty

(specification)

E2 (Recurring

Modify

cost for technology/process Factor E3 (Recurring influences electronics

Modify Modify

cost for weight cost for percent Factor

E4 (Recurring

Production)

Modify

cost for quantity Factor

in production. (Non-recurring)

DDT&E

Modify Modify

costs for State-of-the-art cost for quantity of test-articles

Table
Factor pound interest. culture. technology technology Factor E2. In the than models slope provides RDT&E required. next El: This factor initially

i - HLLVCM
calculates the

Algorithms
recurring cost of a theoretical first

of the first unit produced. This is a hypothetical cost with no intrinsic E1 estimates this cost based on product complexity and also the program (all input years down variables that factor, are discussed or later attributed later). than the Next, model factor base E1 is modified year (1987). generates for This the are earlier

to production

improvements,

step,

factor one first and

E2 is modified pound, the production the cost

for the unit.

influence step units

of weights is Factor

either E3, which

greater is the

or less than theoretical is determined the costs total are

outcome

of this In Factor cost. Factor

E4 calculations, is estimated.

a learning This

of all production

recurring derived

acquisition by modifying and

E3 to account of non

for state test

of units

development

(state-of-the-art)

the quantity

recurring

2.3 HLLVCM The HLLVCM physical explained programmatic

Inputs input factors. variables Two The others, are listed quantity in Table variables variable 2. One variable, are model peculiar weight, is a be

quantity.. as follows.

and IOC date,

are measurable and may covering a linear

The remaining state-of-the-art

is an integer

scale from I (off the shelf) to 12 (highly conceptual) variable, that is, there are no units of measure.

This is a dimensionless

NAME

EXPANSION

Weight

Dry Weight

Including

Contingency

Culture

Acquisition

and Operational GE PRICE model's

environment; similar Platform variable

to the

SOTA

State-of-the-Art

(see explanation

below)

Quantity

1. Numbers

of Whole Flight 2. Equivalent

Articles Delivered units used in test

in Prod Phase

IOC

Year of initial

operational

capability

Difficulty

Degree

of Product

Sophistication,

as Measured

at the IOC Date

Slope

Historical

Rate of Annual

Complexity

Growth

Table Weight under is an input study. variable when used

2 - HLLVCM as an indicator used

Inputs of the context relative size of the been item provides

Weight,

properly

in the

of this model, on cost has analyzed.

an indicator established

for cost tendencies. to vary greatly with

The impact of weight the type of item being

Table 3 displays the available and appropriate values for the "Culture" This variable is similar to the GE PRICE Model's Platform. It has also the paper trail and variable. It captures the influence to develop on cost systems the

Variable. been called

specifications, in alternative

oversight,

documentation

required

environments.

Additionally,

it reflects

the

amount

of reliability

built

into

system. Through data normalization and the calibration process, for respective environments are neutralized so that data obtained environments can be utilized as analogies in all other environments. Table 4 displays a description indicated of appropriate the relative State-of-the-art differences in the

cost differences from various

variables. complexity

The Stateof the

of-the-Art

parameter

engineering task. The HLLVCM uses a twelve level between off-the-shelf at one extreme, and "principles Examples for each category are also provided NASA/OAST technology readiness equivalent as well where

scale to differentiate observed" at the other. as the equivalent applicable..

Variable

Content

Equiv PRICE Platform

1.00

Ground

Based

Equipment

1.0

1.15

Ship borne

or Ground

Mobile

1.4

1.30

Airborne,

Mil-SPEC

1.8

1.67

Space

borne,

Unmanned

2.0

1.80

Space

borne,

Manned

2.5

Table

3 - Culture

Variable

Values

IOC,

or year

of initial in terms

operational

capability,

indicates

the and

maturity processes

of a product's as well to as

development

of improvements

in methods

performance between time now and the IOC calculate both the Technology Advancement improvement The difficulty in the design demonstrated that slope each and impact inherent in the parameter model's is the

of the system. It is utilized slope and the productivity logic. link between the inherent has ECON

or complexity of an item a pattern if the

difficulty has found

and its cost. In previous efforts, ECON of time-dependent complexity growth. as well index as specific is plotted subsystems, over time. difficulty

individual shape

system,

demonstrate

unique