Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
18 March 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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18 March 2013
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
383.10
270.90
383.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
578
0.66
CHEMRING GROUP
255.90
217.00
442.00
Neutral
Buy
321
0.66
COBHAM
237.30
190.10
239.50
Buy
Buy
286
0.83
MEGGITT
480.20
364.30
490.10
Neutral
Sell
406
1.32
1085.00
781.16
1088.00
Neutral
Neutral
1102
1.07
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
Target
Beta
SMITHS GROUP
1313.00
979.50
1314.00
Neutral
Sell
1051
0.71
1740.00
1424.00
1780.00
Neutral
Sell
1547
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
274.50
173.60
285.00
Neutral
Neutral
Target
262
2.00
INCHCAPE
509.50
305.20
530.00
Neutral
Neutral
504
1.48
LOOKERS
95.50
56.50
95.50
Neutral
Buy
106
1.24
PENDRAGON
25.00
13.25
25.00
Neutral
Buy
34
1.12
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BARCLAYS
320.05
150.55
327.35
Neutral
Sell
Target
72
Beta
1.93
720.10
503.20
740.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1259
1.17
1.87
50.52
25.29
55.68
Sell
Strong Buy
77
307.90
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
57
1.34
STANDARD CHARTERED
1763.00
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Sell
1141
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
524.00
348.00
557.00
Neutral
Neutral
572
0.55
DIAGEO
2012.00
1477.00
2018.50
Neutral
Sell
1766
0.55
SABMILLER
3499.50
2348.50
3509.50
Sell
Buy
3986
0.95
BARR (AG)
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
403.10
267.60
405.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
728
CARCLO
460.75
330.00
503.00
Neutral
Neutral
441
0.74
2634.00
2050.00
2690.00
Neutral
Sell
2162
1.04
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
Target
Beta
#NA
270.00
179.00
270.00
Sell
Buy
375
1.00
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2316.00
2080.27
2573.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
13003
1.44
VICTREX
ELEMENTIS
1736.00
1185.00
1736.00
Neutral
Sell
1549
1.13
SYNTHOMER
218.00
127.40
251.00
Neutral
Buy
241
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
202.00
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
416
0.99
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18 March 2013
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
98.00
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
249
0.51
BALFOUR BEATTY
278.10
237.90
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1048
0.79
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
Target
Beta
235.00
114.00
244.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
482
1.50
BELLWAY
1158.00
660.00
1175.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2059
1.11
1975.00
1177.00
1975.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3484
0.64
BOOT (HENRY)
161.00
115.50
167.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
360
0.83
650.00
399.30
681.50
Neutral
Sell
597
1.14
CARILLION
294.50
235.50
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
867
1.10
CLARKE (T)
53.25
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
288
0.82
287.50
188.00
295.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
591
0.57
1527.00
1052.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
792
1.14
957.00
579.00
965.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1834
0.99
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER
819.00
348.25
830.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2160
1.25
1245.00
1095.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3595
0.94
73.00
49.00
73.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
215
1.07
MARSHALLS
115.50
76.00
115.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
305
1.37
560.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3536
0.86
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
NORCROS
16.00
9.25
16.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
37
1.11
PERSIMMON
953.00
532.00
965.50
Neutral
Buy
1211
1.15
REDROW
181.10
107.30
195.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
314
1.05
SIG
155.00
82.30
155.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
496
1.74
5.25
4.13
21.50
Sell
Strong Buy
47
0.89
84.10
40.28
85.20
Neutral
Buy
102
1.58
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
1359.00
906.50
1359.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2802
1.97
WOLSELEY
3315.00
2121.32
3328.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5494
1.43
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1364.00
900.00
1364.00
Neutral
Sell
785
0.78
695.00
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
864
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
124.50
105.50
149.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
250
1.30
INVENSYS
358.60
186.10
366.80
Neutral
Neutral
348
1.42
LAIRD
229.30
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Sell
86
2.12
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1711.00
1096.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1199
1.01
RENISHAW
1900.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2456
1.26
SPECTRIS
2470.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Sell
2246
1.52
0.08
0.08
0.22
Buy
Strong Buy
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
171.75
114.00
190.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
403
1.59
XAAR
335.25
185.00
348.00
Neutral
Sell
233
1.11
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Target
Beta
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+44 20 3239 8994
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
86.00
54.25
92.00
Neutral
Buy
110
1.26
BODYCOTE
551.50
310.30
556.50
Neutral
Neutral
536
1.61
CASTINGS
344.50
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
734
0.99
VESUVIUS
402.10
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Buy
518
2.19
FENNER
420.20
329.30
473.80
Neutral
Buy
585
1.42
HALMA
531.50
373.10
531.50
Sell
Sell
414
0.75
450.00
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
353
1.37
1347.00
776.00
1347.00
Sell
Neutral
1439
1.40
IMI
METALRAX GROUP
MORGAN CRUCIBLE
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARCO
Target
Beta
3.00
2.93
8.95
Neutral
Neutral
0.85
305.00
220.30
341.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
572
1.82
2977.00
1859.00
2977.00
Neutral
Sell
2230
1.00
240.40
177.00
248.90
Neutral
Neutral
234
1.65
73.75
68.00
203.50
Neutral
Neutral
76
0.73
2725.00
1900.00
2728.00
Sell
Sell
2397
0.84
VITEC GROUP
654.50
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Neutral
634
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2457.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
2147
1.39
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
504.50
449.00
549.50
Neutral
Buy
715
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
271.30
248.60
305.70
Neutral
Sell
207
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
362.80
283.50
362.80
Neutral
Sell
228
0.58
TESCO
385.15
297.05
385.95
Neutral
Sell
293
0.69
69.00
18.88
69.00
Neutral
Sell
47
0.83
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1899.00
1167.00
1902.00
Sell
Neutral
2075
0.62
CRANSWICK
1002.00
732.50
1011.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2055
0.49
DAIRY CREST
417.10
290.40
438.00
Neutral
Buy
484
0.92
DEVRO
350.50
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Buy
514
0.31
82.00
54.50
180.00
Neutral
Sell
-180
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
818.00
633.50
840.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1540
0.70
2735.00
2005.00
2750.00
Neutral
Neutral
2744
0.57
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18 March 2013
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
29.50
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
33
0.69
412.90
222.40
412.90
Neutral
Sell
362
0.53
1450.00
1000.00
1586.00
Neutral
Sell
981
1.27
640.00
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
283
0.94
34.81
12.67
34.95
Neutral
Neutral
37
1.50
7.48
2.76
9.30
Neutral
Sell
1.08
31.13
19.50
52.25
Sell
Strong Buy
111
0.98
HALFORDS GROUP
321.20
189.00
356.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
500
0.67
JD SPORTS FASHION
768.00
606.50
841.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1523
0.52
Target
Beta
40.00
38.00
77.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
83
1.24
KINGFISHER
286.10
254.10
313.80
Neutral
Buy
391
0.92
372.50
312.20
398.80
Neutral
Buy
518
0.64
67.00
42.00
71.00
Neutral
Sell
60
1.04
294.25
152.00
362.00
Neutral
Buy
344
0.46
NEXT
4090.00
2894.00
4247.00
Neutral
Sell
3715
0.66
TED BAKER
1305.00
775.00
1305.00
Sell
Sell
657
0.55
63.75
32.13
68.00
Neutral
Sell
51
1.48
DARTY
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
136.00
119.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
107
0.45
CONSORT MEDICAL
768.00
584.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
546
0.40
OPTOS
204.00
160.00
279.25
Neutral
Sell
177
1.21
746.50
580.00
751.50
Neutral
Sell
663
0.41
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
625.00
530.00
720.50
Neutral
Neutral
611
0.43
HEADLAM GROUP
335.00
263.00
355.00
Neutral
Sell
288
0.92
73.50
55.25
103.00
Neutral
Buy
100
0.75
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
928.50
469.00
971.50
Neutral
Sell
591
0.74
CSR
473.40
194.60
492.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1336
1.17
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
66.00
23.50
83.25
Neutral
Sell
51
0.90
552.00
383.50
717.00
Neutral
Neutral
543
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
155.70
139.20
174.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
699
0.95
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
193.00
165.75
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-529
0.91
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18 March 2013
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1336.00
1019.00
1359.00
Neutral
Sell
-712
0.54
AMLIN
430.40
312.90
431.50
Neutral
Sell
-3072
0.46
BEAZLEY
213.00
132.50
215.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
2585
0.59
CATLIN GROUP
512.00
399.00
540.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
783
0.30
HISCOX
560.50
371.30
561.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2065
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
862.50
659.00
862.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2914
0.31
116.00
97.65
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1685
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
462.00
340.00
475.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
1905
0.47
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2379.00
1900.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3875
1.00
ENTERPRISE INNS
111.00
50.25
114.70
Neutral
Sell
83
1.59
TUI TRAVEL
319.60
158.00
330.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
784
0.99
810.00
680.00
810.00
Neutral
Sell
655
0.38
GREENE KING
711.50
474.30
716.00
Neutral
Sell
621
0.90
LADBROKES
238.50
152.50
243.10
Neutral
Sell
183
0.94
2005.00
1396.63
2022.00
Neutral
Sell
1639
1.17
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
568.00
455.40
568.50
Neutral
Neutral
614
1.38
343.40
217.40
350.10
Neutral
Sell
302
1.08
144.90
91.90
162.60
Neutral
Sell
104
1.25
11.25
5.61
13.12
Neutral
Strong Buy
50
1.25
169.00
111.00
169.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
506
1.00
0.74
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
449.10
269.20
449.10
Neutral
Sell
319
WETHERSPOON (JD)
515.50
371.30
548.50
Neutral
Buy
740
0.68
WHITBREAD
2591.00
1714.00
2692.00
Neutral
Sell
1937
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
405.60
243.10
443.30
Neutral
Sell
278
0.86
MARSTON'S
141.00
94.40
143.00
Neutral
Sell
30
1.19
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
AVIVA
326.20
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1197
1.25
CHESNARA
224.75
155.25
233.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
359
0.70
173.20
106.00
173.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
302
1.70
OLD MUTUAL
208.70
138.70
211.40
Neutral
Sell
177
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1154.00
660.00
1155.00
Sell
Sell
981
1.70
519.50
303.40
537.00
Neutral
Sell
437
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
AEGIS GROUP
239.60
153.20
239.60
Neutral
Sell
-528
1.28
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
110.00
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1522
0.35
884.00
635.50
888.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
136
0.54
45.75
28.50
60.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2959
1.01
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
706.50
363.50
722.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6556
1.12
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
910.00
672.50
951.50
Neutral
Sell
-63
0.98
INFORMA
511.50
340.00
525.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
214
1.53
ITE GROUP
287.80
180.00
287.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1169
1.44
ITV
131.20
69.45
132.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1545
1.54
13.50
4.88
15.00
Neutral
Buy
281
1.25
1208.00
1111.00
1294.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2317
0.63
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
82.50
36.25
82.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
781
0.79
274.00
260.00
377.50
Neutral
Sell
-529
0.16
0.52
32.88
26.85
32.88
Neutral
Sell
245
STV GROUP
144.00
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
669
0.78
ST.IVES
139.25
67.50
139.25
Neutral
Sell
-241
1.49
1.57
THOMSON REUTERS
TRINITY MIRROR
95.00
25.50
121.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
1600
UBM
719.50
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1185
1.31
WILMINGTON GROUP
162.00
82.00
164.00
Neutral
Sell
-447
0.85
WPP
1083.00
743.00
1092.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
719
1.34
HIBU
0.41
0.26
4.15
Neutral
Sell
-10
1.06
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1892.50
1664.00
2618.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3084
1.75
263.50
221.25
340.00
Neutral
Buy
294
0.99
ANTOFAGASTA
1082.00
991.00
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
1002
1.42
BHP BILLITON
2065.00
1681.00
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3672
1.45
329.00
240.84
599.98
Neutral
Sell
46
2.04
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
5490.00
4596.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
3091
0.34
RIO TINTO
3312.00
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Buy
3703
1.51
5.63
3.75
22.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
176
0.89
832.50
1418.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2639
2.21
785.80
1205.00
Neutral
Sell
1091
1.87
ANGLO AMERICAN
ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP
LONMIN
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
XSTRATA
1164.50
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1178.00
1000.50
1547.00
Neutral
Buy
1297
0.81
BP
449.65
391.95
491.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
1640
1.05
CAIRN ENERGY
291.90
248.20
349.00
Neutral
Sell
-46
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
10.50
7.86
12.50
Neutral
Buy
15
0.91
930.00
688.00
968.00
Neutral
Sell
487
1.32
1.36
79.00
55.00
187.75
Sell
Strong Buy
318
395.00
321.30
429.00
Neutral
Sell
309
1.44
2240.00
2039.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
12075
0.86
404.30
254.90
404.30
Neutral
Sell
265
0.52
1249.00
1138.00
1570.00
Neutral
Sell
977
1.06
869.00
651.50
875.50
Neutral
Neutral
861
1.36
www.intellisys.uk.com
18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
139.25
102.70
146.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
276
PZ CUSSONS
411.00
296.10
415.60
Neutral
Sell
344
0.69
4709.00
3300.00
4709.00
Neutral
Neutral
4751
0.36
Target
0.83
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.37
0.37
3.98
Buy
Strong Buy
1.01
3069.50
2591.00
3168.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5328
0.48
BTG
343.50
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
201
0.62
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
759.50
418.33
759.50
Neutral
Buy
998
0.26
1496.00
1317.50
1507.50
Neutral
Sell
608
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.93
1.85
5.80
Buy
Strong Buy
0.64
PHYTOPHARM
1.70
1.70
12.75
Buy
Neutral
0.94
2039.00
1727.00
2177.00
Neutral
Sell
1129
0.65
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
57.88
33.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
-127
0.72
VERNALIS
23.50
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
57
0.89
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
371.30
274.50
387.50
Neutral
Sell
-528
1.15
BRITISH LAND
555.00
467.10
585.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1522
1.03
33.00
22.75
34.25
Sell
Strong Buy
136
0.82
808.50
595.00
859.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2959
0.69
DERWENT LONDON
2180.00
1689.00
2239.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6556
1.21
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
152.50
121.75
176.00
Neutral
Sell
-63
0.97
GRAINGER
139.40
83.10
139.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
214
1.54
504.50
345.60
514.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1169
1.06
1.16
HAMMERSON
507.00
404.50
525.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1545
HELICAL BAR
235.00
164.00
249.75
Neutral
Buy
281
0.75
826.50
704.00
849.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2317
1.15
INTU PROPERTIES
332.00
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
781
1.08
MCKAY SECURITIES
145.00
125.00
145.00
Neutral
Sell
-529
0.72
355.00
310.00
390.00
Neutral
Sell
245
0.42
324.00
311.00
364.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
669
0.35
62.00
32.50
70.00
Neutral
Sell
-241
1.17
0.74
599.00
300.80
599.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1600
SHAFTESBURY
597.50
482.20
597.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1185
1.03
SEGRO
271.00
209.40
271.00
Neutral
Sell
-447
1.70
ST MODWEN PROPS.
265.00
145.50
280.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
719
1.55
206.00
147.00
215.00
Neutral
Sell
-10
1.04
UNITE GROUP
330.00
180.25
330.00
Neutral
Sell
33
1.75
1.68
1.00
3.35
Sell
Sell
-1008
1.02
331.80
213.25
363.20
Neutral
Sell
1.02
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
www.intellisys.uk.com
18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
134.10
111.00
162.00
Neutral
Sell
125
0.76
2277.00
1469.00
2322.00
Neutral
Sell
1340
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
520.00
292.40
520.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1375
1.00
KOFAX
305.50
240.00
325.75
Neutral
Neutral
328
1.12
25.00
18.25
25.50
Neutral
Neutral
25
0.83
693.50
426.17
702.00
Neutral
Buy
1004
0.79
PHOENIX IT GROUP
163.00
135.00
231.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
318
0.74
73.00
70.25
89.00
Neutral
Sell
-96
0.52
1939.00
1275.00
1970.00
Neutral
Neutral
2124
0.77
341.80
247.70
352.10
Neutral
Buy
425
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
411.30
237.30
441.90
Neutral
Sell
168
BREWIN DOLPHIN
195.70
136.30
222.00
Neutral
Sell
124
0.71
10600.00
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Sell
9883
0.83
CAMELLIA
Target
Beta
1.09
365.38
247.50
371.50
Neutral
Sell
172
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
180.00
132.00
189.75
Neutral
Sell
102
0.68
1107.00
673.50
1107.00
Sell
Sell
175
0.87
106.50
64.75
110.40
Neutral
Neutral
103
0.89
3.70
0.55
3.70
Sell
Strong Buy
29
0.68
HENDERSON GROUP
168.80
90.55
171.00
Neutral
Sell
49
1.44
ICAP
330.00
281.40
431.50
Neutral
Sell
200
1.07
1.68
HELPHIRE GROUP
422.00
227.30
422.00
Neutral
Sell
202
INVESTEC
487.10
310.40
513.50
Neutral
Sell
95
1.55
1385.00
930.00
1411.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3919
1.12
100.30
63.25
145.00
Neutral
Sell
94
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
MAN GROUP
1532.00
1151.00
1532.00
Neutral
Sell
1119
0.74
SCHRODERS
2154.00
1166.00
2160.00
Neutral
Sell
1259
1.31
SCHRODERS NV
1727.00
966.00
1729.00
Sell
Strong Buy
4215
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
233.00
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Buy
305
0.93
AGGREKO
1989.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Sell
1299
1.04
AMEC
1060.00
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Neutral
1138
1.04
588.50
212.20
591.50
Neutral
Sell
318
1.61
1071.00
743.50
1106.00
Neutral
Sell
666
0.48
505.00
317.00
508.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
803
0.77
1298.00
990.00
1320.00
Neutral
Sell
823
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
380.00
214.00
380.00
Neutral
Buy
444
0.38
CAPITA
881.50
602.00
904.50
Neutral
Sell
523
0.50
51.63
25.34
53.50
Neutral
Buy
68
0.78
COMPASS GROUP
835.00
616.00
846.00
Neutral
Sell
606
0.74
BERENDSEN
762.50
462.00
762.50
Sell
Buy
983
1.04
DE LA RUE
925.00
885.50
1075.00
Neutral
Sell
594
#NA
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
DIGNITY
1393.00
803.50
1435.00
Neutral
Sell
810
0.21
DIPLOMA
610.00
407.00
627.50
Neutral
Sell
488
0.95
ELECTROCOMP.
257.10
195.20
265.00
Neutral
Buy
321
1.03
FILTRONA
663.00
428.00
664.50
Neutral
Sell
357
1.10
G4S
298.30
240.00
307.50
Neutral
Neutral
291
0.58
98.50
66.40
100.00
Neutral
Buy
121
1.10
HOMESERVE
226.90
137.50
255.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
490
0.93
INTERSERVE
485.00
270.10
501.00
Neutral
Buy
692
1.27
3410.00
2406.00
3440.00
Neutral
Sell
1454
0.78
44.00
26.50
44.63
Neutral
Strong Buy
94
1.17
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
30.00
21.25
39.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
55
0.71
MENZIES (JOHN)
789.00
542.00
789.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1307
1.43
449.10
341.40
497.00
Neutral
Sell
321
1.41
MITIE GROUP
291.00
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Buy
342
0.55
99.50
91.50
163.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
239
0.35
PAYPOINT
868.50
596.50
901.00
Neutral
Sell
694
0.70
PREMIER FARNELL
220.00
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Buy
287
1.32
REGUS
163.00
82.65
163.00
Neutral
Sell
107
1.45
99.00
69.40
99.00
Neutral
Sell
55
1.25
526.50
394.28
526.50
Neutral
Buy
637
0.91
HAYS
INTERTEK GROUP
OFFICE2OFFICE
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RICARDO
416.25
304.50
416.25
Neutral
Buy
471
0.85
ROBERT WALTERS
215.00
176.25
264.63
Neutral
Buy
309
1.23
RPC GROUP
477.00
348.30
477.00
Neutral
Buy
535
0.78
RPS GROUP
264.80
197.00
264.80
Neutral
Sell
248
1.50
SERCO GROUP
624.50
509.50
633.00
Neutral
Sell
579
0.59
SHANKS GROUP
82.00
75.80
102.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
168
1.46
SPEEDY HIRE
46.00
22.25
46.00
Sell
Buy
52
1.25
135.00
70.00
135.00
Neutral
Sell
51
0.55
55.88
39.50
59.00
Neutral
Neutral
61
0.92
342.75
234.75
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
623
0.86
71.00
42.00
75.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
183
0.78
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
www.intellisys.uk.com
18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
272.30
200.70
281.00
Neutral
Buy
Target
308
Beta
41.58
27.28
42.63
Neutral
Strong Buy
77
0.69
686.00
390.80
696.00
Neutral
Sell
578
0.53
0.90
KCOM GROUP
84.35
67.00
85.20
Neutral
Buy
119
1.24
TELECOM PLUS
997.00
659.00
1010.00
Neutral
Sell
664
0.11
VODAFONE GROUP
183.25
154.45
191.25
Neutral
Sell
156
0.54
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
264.90
178.00
264.90
Neutral
Sell
Target
191
Beta
388.50
309.50
425.00
Neutral
Buy
440
0.98
CLARKSON
1501.00
1150.00
1515.00
Neutral
Neutral
1429
0.81
EASYJET
1.29
1072.00
443.80
1072.00
Neutral
Sell
644
0.74
FIRST GROUP
204.40
175.70
297.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
530
0.90
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
970.00
535.00
970.00
Neutral
Sell
376
0.77
1511.00
1086.00
1511.00
Neutral
Buy
1769
0.89
GO-AHEAD GROUP
NATIONAL EXPRESS
218.00
164.50
252.00
Neutral
Neutral
239
1.33
NORTHGATE
303.75
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
583
1.40
STAGECOACH GROUP
311.50
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
349
0.89
54.25
31.00
81.50
Sell
Sell
-41
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
352.00
306.30
361.40
Neutral
Buy
477
0.46
NATIONAL GRID
734.00
626.00
744.00
Neutral
Buy
815
0.49
PENNON GROUP
635.50
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
761
0.58
SSE
1464.00
1294.00
1470.00
Neutral
Buy
1720
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
1647.00
1507.00
1796.00
Neutral
Sell
1469
0.34
689.00
594.00
747.50
Neutral
Sell
651
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
IntelliSys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any
person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
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may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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