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18 March 2013

Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6

Automobiles & Parts


Banks
Beverages

Over Valued .........................................................................................6


Under Valued ..................................................................................6

Under Valued ..................................................................................6


Under Valued ....................................................7
Construction & Building Materials

Chemicals

Electronics & Electrical Equipment


Engineering & Machinery
Food & Drug Stores

Over Valued ..................................................7


Over Valued ................................................................8

Over Valued .......................................................................8


Under Valued ........................................................8

Food Producers & Processors


Under Valued ..............................................................................9
General Retail
Over Valued .........................................................................................9
Heath
Over Valued ..........................................................9
Over Valued ...............................................9

Household Goods & Textiles

Information Technology & Hardware


Under Valued ................................................................................... 10
Insurance
Over Valued ..................................................................... 10
Leisure & Hotels
Life Assurance

Over Valued .................................................................... 10


Under Valued ................................................................ 11

Media & Entertainment


Under Valued ...................................................................................... 11
Mining
Under Valued ................................................................................... 11
Oil & Gas
Personal Care & Household Products

Over Valued .......................................... 12


Over Valued ................................................ 12

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology


Under Valued ............................................................................... 12
Real Estate
Under Valued ..................................................... 13
Software & Computer Services
Speciality & Other Finance
Support Services

Over Valued .......................................................... 13


Over Valued ..................................................................... 14

Over Valued ....................................................... 15


Telecommunication Services
Under
Valued
Transport
................................................................................... 15
Under
Valued
Utilities
....................................................................................... 15

DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 2 of 17

Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%

120.0%

110.0%

110.0%

100.0%

100.0%

90.0%

90.0%

80.0%

80.0%

70.0%

70.0%

60.0%

60.0%

50.0%

50.0%

40.0%

40.0%

30.0%

30.0%

20.0%

20.0%
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell

Trend

Source: Intellisys

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 3 of 17

Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)

RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets


Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions. If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other
equity investments, you should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be
suitable for everyone. The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise
and you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency,
fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 4 of 17

How to use the report


This daily report is typically available for download as a PDF from 7am - well in advance of the markets
open - and is based upon previous days closing prices.
We have kept the report deliberately simple for quick reading and identification of the shares most likely to
be active as can be seen from the following:

Longer term action based


upon implied target price
Todays action
Sector

Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics

Closing price

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

Company

Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25

12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50

12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Latest 12 month Hi/Lo for


the share price

LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29

Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31

eta measures a shares


volatility/risk relative to
market (see below)

Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0

Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)

eta =1.0

Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)

eta >1.0

Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 5 of 17

Under Valued

Aerospace & Defence


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BAE SYSTEMS

383.10

270.90

383.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

578

0.66

CHEMRING GROUP

255.90

217.00

442.00

Neutral

Buy

321

0.66

COBHAM

237.30

190.10

239.50

Buy

Buy

286

0.83

MEGGITT

480.20

364.30

490.10

Neutral

Sell

406

1.32

1085.00

781.16

1088.00

Neutral

Neutral

1102

1.07

ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS

Target

Beta

SMITHS GROUP

1313.00

979.50

1314.00

Neutral

Sell

1051

0.71

ULTRA ELECTRONICS HDG.

1740.00

1424.00

1780.00

Neutral

Sell

1547

0.51

Unde r V a lue d

Automobiles & Parts


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GKN

274.50

173.60

285.00

Neutral

Neutral

Target
262

2.00

INCHCAPE

509.50

305.20

530.00

Neutral

Neutral

504

1.48

LOOKERS

95.50

56.50

95.50

Neutral

Buy

106

1.24

PENDRAGON

25.00

13.25

25.00

Neutral

Buy

34

1.12

Over Valued

Banks
Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BARCLAYS

320.05

150.55

327.35

Neutral

Sell

Target
72

Beta
1.93

HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)

720.10

503.20

740.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1259

1.17
1.87

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP

50.52

25.29

55.68

Sell

Strong Buy

77

ROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP.

307.90

196.60

367.80

Neutral

Sell

57

1.34

STANDARD CHARTERED

1763.00

1228.50

1837.50

Neutral

Sell

1141

1.70

Under Valued

Beverages
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

524.00

348.00

557.00

Neutral

Neutral

572

0.55

DIAGEO

2012.00

1477.00

2018.50

Neutral

Sell

1766

0.55

SABMILLER

3499.50

2348.50

3509.50

Sell

Buy

3986

0.95

BARR (AG)

Beta

Under Valued

Chemicals
Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)

403.10

267.60

405.90

Neutral

Strong Buy

728

CARCLO

460.75

330.00

503.00

Neutral

Neutral

441

0.74

2634.00

2050.00

2690.00

Neutral

Sell

2162

1.04

CRODA INTERNATIONAL

Target

Beta
#NA

270.00

179.00

270.00

Sell

Buy

375

1.00

JOHNSON MATTHEY

2316.00

2080.27

2573.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

13003

1.44

VICTREX

ELEMENTIS

1736.00

1185.00

1736.00

Neutral

Sell

1549

1.13

SYNTHOMER

218.00

127.40

251.00

Neutral

Buy

241

1.16

ZOTEFOAMS

202.00

157.00

225.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

416

0.99

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 6 of 17

Under Valued

Construction & Building Materials


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ALUMASC GROUP

98.00

61.50

104.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

249

0.51

BALFOUR BEATTY

278.10

237.90

320.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

1048

0.79

BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS

Target

Beta

235.00

114.00

244.90

Neutral

Strong Buy

482

1.50

BELLWAY

1158.00

660.00

1175.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2059

1.11

BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE)

1975.00

1177.00

1975.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3484

0.64

BOOT (HENRY)

161.00

115.50

167.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

360

0.83

BOVIS HOMES GROUP

650.00

399.30

681.50

Neutral

Sell

597

1.14

CARILLION

294.50

235.50

331.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

867

1.10

CLARKE (T)

53.25

40.00

61.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

288

0.82

287.50

188.00

295.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

591

0.57

1527.00

1052.00

1540.00

Neutral

Sell

792

1.14

957.00

579.00

965.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1834

0.99

COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER

819.00

348.25

830.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2160

1.25

1245.00

1095.00

1408.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3595

0.94

73.00

49.00

73.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

215

1.07

MARSHALLS

115.50

76.00

115.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

305

1.37

MORGAN SINDALL GROUP

560.00

508.00

695.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3536

0.86

KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR

NORCROS

16.00

9.25

16.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

37

1.11

PERSIMMON

953.00

532.00

965.50

Neutral

Buy

1211

1.15

REDROW

181.10

107.30

195.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

314

1.05

SIG

155.00

82.30

155.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

496

1.74

5.25

4.13

21.50

Sell

Strong Buy

47

0.89

84.10

40.28

85.20

Neutral

Buy

102

1.58

SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS

1359.00

906.50

1359.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2802

1.97

WOLSELEY

3315.00

2121.32

3328.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

5494

1.43

Over Valued

Electronics & Electrical Equipment


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

1364.00

900.00

1364.00

Neutral

Sell

785

0.78

DOMINO PRINTING SCIENCES

695.00

509.00

717.00

Neutral

Buy

864

1.18

E2V TECHNOLOGIES

124.50

105.50

149.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

250

1.30

INVENSYS

358.60

186.10

366.80

Neutral

Neutral

348

1.42

LAIRD

229.30

177.00

249.30

Neutral

Sell

86

2.12

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS

1711.00

1096.00

1752.00

Neutral

Sell

1199

1.01

RENISHAW

1900.00

1260.00

2081.00

Neutral

Buy

2456

1.26

SPECTRIS

2470.00

1427.00

2470.00

Neutral

Sell

2246

1.52

0.08

0.08

0.22

Buy

Strong Buy

0.84

TT ELECTRONICS

171.75

114.00

190.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

403

1.59

XAAR

335.25

185.00

348.00

Neutral

Sell

233

1.11

DIALIGHT

BIOME TECHNOLOGIES

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

Target

Beta

18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 7 of 17

Over Valued

Engineering & Machinery


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP

86.00

54.25

92.00

Neutral

Buy

110

1.26

BODYCOTE

551.50

310.30

556.50

Neutral

Neutral

536

1.61

CASTINGS

344.50

277.75

358.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

734

0.99

VESUVIUS

402.10

263.19

402.10

Neutral

Buy

518

2.19

FENNER

420.20

329.30

473.80

Neutral

Buy

585

1.42

HALMA

531.50

373.10

531.50

Sell

Sell

414

0.75

HILL & SMITH

450.00

297.00

480.00

Neutral

Sell

353

1.37

1347.00

776.00

1347.00

Sell

Neutral

1439

1.40

IMI
METALRAX GROUP
MORGAN CRUCIBLE
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARCO

Target

Beta

3.00

2.93

8.95

Neutral

Neutral

0.85

305.00

220.30

341.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

572

1.82

2977.00

1859.00

2977.00

Neutral

Sell

2230

1.00

240.40

177.00

248.90

Neutral

Neutral

234

1.65

73.75

68.00

203.50

Neutral

Neutral

76

0.73

2725.00

1900.00

2728.00

Sell

Sell

2397

0.84

VITEC GROUP

654.50

586.50

740.00

Neutral

Neutral

634

1.39

WEIR GROUP

2457.00

1397.00

2474.00

Neutral

Sell

2147

1.39

Over Valued

Food & Drug Stores


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GREGGS

504.50

449.00

549.50

Neutral

Buy

715

0.47

MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.

271.30

248.60

305.70

Neutral

Sell

207

0.39

SAINSBURY (J)

362.80

283.50

362.80

Neutral

Sell

228

0.58

TESCO

385.15

297.05

385.95

Neutral

Sell

293

0.69

69.00

18.88

69.00

Neutral

Sell

47

0.83

THORNTONS

Beta

Under Valued

Food Producers & Processors


Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS

1899.00

1167.00

1902.00

Sell

Neutral

2075

0.62

CRANSWICK

1002.00

732.50

1011.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2055

0.49

DAIRY CREST

417.10

290.40

438.00

Neutral

Buy

484

0.92

DEVRO

350.50

278.00

380.00

Neutral

Buy

514

0.31

82.00

54.50

180.00

Neutral

Sell

-180

1.25

PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)

818.00

633.50

840.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1540

0.70

2735.00

2005.00

2750.00

Neutral

Neutral

2744

0.57

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 8 of 17

Under Valued

General Retail
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS

29.50

20.50

29.50

Neutral

Buy

33

0.69

412.90

222.40

412.90

Neutral

Sell

362

0.53

1450.00

1000.00

1586.00

Neutral

Sell

981

1.27

640.00

585.00

728.50

Neutral

Sell

283

0.94

34.81

12.67

34.95

Neutral

Neutral

37

1.50

7.48

2.76

9.30

Neutral

Sell

1.08

31.13

19.50

52.25

Sell

Strong Buy

111

0.98

HALFORDS GROUP

321.20

189.00

356.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

500

0.67

JD SPORTS FASHION

768.00

606.50

841.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1523

0.52

BROWN (N) GROUP


BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP

Target

Beta

40.00

38.00

77.25

Neutral

Strong Buy

83

1.24

KINGFISHER

286.10

254.10

313.80

Neutral

Buy

391

0.92

MARKS & SPENCER GROUP

372.50

312.20

398.80

Neutral

Buy

518

0.64

67.00

42.00

71.00

Neutral

Sell

60

1.04

294.25

152.00

362.00

Neutral

Buy

344

0.46

NEXT

4090.00

2894.00

4247.00

Neutral

Sell

3715

0.66

TED BAKER

1305.00

775.00

1305.00

Sell

Sell

657

0.55

63.75

32.13

68.00

Neutral

Sell

51

1.48

DARTY

MOSS BROTHERS GROUP


MOTHERCARE

TOPPS TILES

Over Valued

Heath
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BIOQUELL

136.00

119.00

160.00

Neutral

Sell

Target
107

0.45

CONSORT MEDICAL

768.00

584.00

831.50

Neutral

Sell

546

0.40

OPTOS

204.00

160.00

279.25

Neutral

Sell

177

1.21

SMITH & NEPHEW

746.50

580.00

751.50

Neutral

Sell

663

0.41

Over Valued

Household Goods & Textiles


Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GAMES WORKSHOP

625.00

530.00

720.50

Neutral

Neutral

611

0.43

HEADLAM GROUP

335.00

263.00

355.00

Neutral

Sell

288

0.92

73.50

55.25

103.00

Neutral

Buy

100

0.75

HORNBY

Target

Over Valued

Information Technology & Hardware


Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ARM HOLDINGS

928.50

469.00

971.50

Neutral

Sell

591

0.74

CSR

473.40

194.60

492.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

1336

1.17

FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES

Target

Beta

66.00

23.50

83.25

Neutral

Sell

51

0.90

552.00

383.50

717.00

Neutral

Neutral

543

1.08

SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS

155.70

139.20

174.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

699

0.95

WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS

193.00

165.75

230.00

Neutral

Sell

-529

0.91

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

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18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 9 of 17

Under Valued

Insurance
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1336.00

1019.00

1359.00

Neutral

Sell

-712

0.54

AMLIN

430.40

312.90

431.50

Neutral

Sell

-3072

0.46

BEAZLEY

213.00

132.50

215.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

2585

0.59

CATLIN GROUP

512.00

399.00

540.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

783

0.30

HISCOX

560.50

371.30

561.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2065

0.48

ADMIRAL GROUP

JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON

862.50

659.00

862.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

2914

0.31

RSA INSURANCE GROUP

116.00

97.65

136.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

1685

0.41

NOVAE GROUP

462.00

340.00

475.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

1905

0.47

Over Valued

Leisure & Hotels


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

2379.00

1900.00

2628.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3875

1.00

ENTERPRISE INNS

111.00

50.25

114.70

Neutral

Sell

83

1.59

TUI TRAVEL

319.60

158.00

330.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

784

0.99

FULLER SMITH 'A'

810.00

680.00

810.00

Neutral

Sell

655

0.38

GREENE KING

711.50

474.30

716.00

Neutral

Sell

621

0.90

LADBROKES

238.50

152.50

243.10

Neutral

Sell

183

0.94

2005.00

1396.63

2022.00

Neutral

Sell

1639

1.17

CARNIVAL

ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.

568.00

455.40

568.50

Neutral

Neutral

614

1.38

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS

343.40

217.40

350.10

Neutral

Sell

302

1.08

BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM.

144.90

91.90

162.60

Neutral

Sell

104

1.25

11.25

5.61

13.12

Neutral

Strong Buy

50

1.25

169.00

111.00

169.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

506

1.00
0.74

PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP

449.10

269.20

449.10

Neutral

Sell

319

WETHERSPOON (JD)

515.50

371.30

548.50

Neutral

Buy

740

0.68

WHITBREAD

2591.00

1714.00

2692.00

Neutral

Sell

1937

0.99

WILLIAM HILL

405.60

243.10

443.30

Neutral

Sell

278

0.86

MARSTON'S

141.00

94.40

143.00

Neutral

Sell

30

1.19

Over Valued

Life Assurance
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

AVIVA

326.20

255.30

388.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

1197

1.25

CHESNARA

224.75

155.25

233.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

359

0.70

LEGAL & GENERAL

173.20

106.00

173.60

Neutral

Strong Buy

302

1.70

OLD MUTUAL

208.70

138.70

211.40

Neutral

Sell

177

1.57

PRUDENTIAL

1154.00

660.00

1155.00

Sell

Sell

981

1.70

519.50

303.40

537.00

Neutral

Sell

437

0.85

ST.JAMES'S PLACE

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 10 of 17

Under Valued

Media & Entertainment


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

AEGIS GROUP

239.60

153.20

239.60

Neutral

Sell

-528

1.28

BLOOMSBURY PBL.

110.00

102.00

146.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1522

0.35

BRITISH SKY BCAST.GROUP

884.00

635.50

888.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

136

0.54

45.75

28.50

60.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2959

1.01

CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'

706.50

363.50

722.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

6556

1.12

EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR

910.00

672.50

951.50

Neutral

Sell

-63

0.98

INFORMA

511.50

340.00

525.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

214

1.53

ITE GROUP

287.80

180.00

287.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

1169

1.44

ITV

131.20

69.45

132.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

1545

1.54

13.50

4.88

15.00

Neutral

Buy

281

1.25

1208.00

1111.00

1294.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2317

0.63

JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON

82.50

36.25

82.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

781

0.79

274.00

260.00

377.50

Neutral

Sell

-529

0.16
0.52

32.88

26.85

32.88

Neutral

Sell

245

STV GROUP

144.00

81.50

146.88

Neutral

Strong Buy

669

0.78

ST.IVES

139.25

67.50

139.25

Neutral

Sell

-241

1.49
1.57

THOMSON REUTERS

TRINITY MIRROR

95.00

25.50

121.25

Neutral

Strong Buy

1600

UBM

719.50

511.00

788.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1185

1.31

WILMINGTON GROUP

162.00

82.00

164.00

Neutral

Sell

-447

0.85

WPP

1083.00

743.00

1092.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

719

1.34

HIBU

0.41

0.26

4.15

Neutral

Sell

-10

1.06

Under Valued

Mining
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1892.50

1664.00

2618.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3084

1.75

263.50

221.25

340.00

Neutral

Buy

294

0.99

ANTOFAGASTA

1082.00

991.00

1381.00

Neutral

Sell

1002

1.42

BHP BILLITON

2065.00

1681.00

2236.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3672

1.45

329.00

240.84

599.98

Neutral

Sell

46

2.04

RANDGOLD RESOURCES

5490.00

4596.00

7775.00

Neutral

Sell

3091

0.34

RIO TINTO

3312.00

2715.50

3757.00

Neutral

Buy

3703

1.51

5.63

3.75

22.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

176

0.89

832.50

1418.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2639

2.21

785.80

1205.00

Neutral

Sell

1091

1.87

ANGLO AMERICAN
ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP

LONMIN

COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
XSTRATA

1164.50

Under Valued

Oil & Gas


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1178.00

1000.50

1547.00

Neutral

Buy

1297

0.81

BP

449.65

391.95

491.25

Neutral

Strong Buy

1640

1.05

CAIRN ENERGY

291.90

248.20

349.00

Neutral

Sell

-46

1.32

BG GROUP

FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)

10.50

7.86

12.50

Neutral

Buy

15

0.91

930.00

688.00

968.00

Neutral

Sell

487

1.32
1.36

79.00

55.00

187.75

Sell

Strong Buy

318

395.00

321.30

429.00

Neutral

Sell

309

1.44

2240.00

2039.00

2366.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

12075

0.86

404.30

254.90

404.30

Neutral

Sell

265

0.52

1249.00

1138.00

1570.00

Neutral

Sell

977

1.06

869.00

651.50

875.50

Neutral

Neutral

861

1.36

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

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18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 11 of 17

Over Valued

Personal Care & Household Products


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

MCBRIDE

139.25

102.70

146.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

276

PZ CUSSONS

411.00

296.10

415.60

Neutral

Sell

344

0.69

4709.00

3300.00

4709.00

Neutral

Neutral

4751

0.36

RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP

Target

0.83

Over Valued

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology


Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

0.37

0.37

3.98

Buy

Strong Buy

1.01

3069.50

2591.00

3168.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

5328

0.48

BTG

343.50

300.30

423.00

Neutral

Sell

201

0.62

DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS

759.50

418.33

759.50

Neutral

Buy

998

0.26

1496.00

1317.50

1507.50

Neutral

Sell

608

0.49

OXFORD BIOMEDICA

1.93

1.85

5.80

Buy

Strong Buy

0.64

PHYTOPHARM

1.70

1.70

12.75

Buy

Neutral

0.94

2039.00

1727.00

2177.00

Neutral

Sell

1129

0.65

ARK THERAPEUTICS GP.


ASTRAZENECA

GLAXOSMITHKLINE

SHIRE

Target

Beta

SKYEPHARMA

57.88

33.50

101.50

Neutral

Sell

-127

0.72

VERNALIS

23.50

21.63

27.38

Neutral

Strong Buy

57

0.89

Under Valued

Real Estate
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

BIG YELLOW GROUP

371.30

274.50

387.50

Neutral

Sell

-528

1.15

BRITISH LAND

555.00

467.10

585.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1522

1.03

33.00

22.75

34.25

Sell

Strong Buy

136

0.82

808.50

595.00

859.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2959

0.69

DERWENT LONDON

2180.00

1689.00

2239.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

6556

1.21

DEVELOPMENT SECS.

152.50

121.75

176.00

Neutral

Sell

-63

0.97

GRAINGER

139.40

83.10

139.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

214

1.54

GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES

504.50

345.60

514.00

Sell

Strong Buy

1169

1.06
1.16

CAPITAL & REGIONAL


CLS HOLDINGS

HAMMERSON

507.00

404.50

525.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1545

HELICAL BAR

235.00

164.00

249.75

Neutral

Buy

281

0.75

LAND SECURITIES GROUP

826.50

704.00

849.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2317

1.15

INTU PROPERTIES

332.00

305.00

366.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

781

1.08

MCKAY SECURITIES

145.00

125.00

145.00

Neutral

Sell

-529

0.72

MUCKLOW (A & J) GROUP

355.00

310.00

390.00

Neutral

Sell

245

0.42

PRIMARY HEALTH PROPS.

324.00

311.00

364.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

669

0.35

62.00

32.50

70.00

Neutral

Sell

-241

1.17
0.74

QUINTAIN ESTATES & DEV.


SAVILLS

599.00

300.80

599.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1600

SHAFTESBURY

597.50

482.20

597.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1185

1.03

SEGRO

271.00

209.40

271.00

Neutral

Sell

-447

1.70

ST MODWEN PROPS.

265.00

145.50

280.20

Neutral

Strong Buy

719

1.55

TOWN CENTRE SECURITIES

206.00

147.00

215.00

Neutral

Sell

-10

1.04

UNITE GROUP

330.00

180.25

330.00

Neutral

Sell

33

1.75

1.68

1.00

3.35

Sell

Sell

-1008

1.02

331.80

213.25

363.20

Neutral

Sell

1.02

WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

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18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 12 of 17

Under Valued

Software & Computer Services


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ANITE

134.10

111.00

162.00

Neutral

Sell

125

0.76

2277.00

1469.00

2322.00

Neutral

Sell

1340

1.40

AVEVA GROUP

Target

Beta

COMPUTACENTER

520.00

292.40

520.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1375

1.00

KOFAX

305.50

240.00

325.75

Neutral

Neutral

328

1.12

25.00

18.25

25.50

Neutral

Neutral

25

0.83

MICRO FOCUS INTL.

693.50

426.17

702.00

Neutral

Buy

1004

0.79

PHOENIX IT GROUP

163.00

135.00

231.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

318

0.74

73.00

70.25

89.00

Neutral

Sell

-96

0.52

1939.00

1275.00

1970.00

Neutral

Neutral

2124

0.77

341.80

247.70

352.10

Neutral

Buy

425

0.72

INNOVATION GROUP

RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP

Over Valued

Speciality & Other Finance


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ABERDEEN ASSET MAN.

411.30

237.30

441.90

Neutral

Sell

168

BREWIN DOLPHIN

195.70

136.30

222.00

Neutral

Sell

124

0.71

10600.00

9250.00

11105.00

Neutral

Sell

9883

0.83

CAMELLIA

Target

Beta
1.09

CHARLES STANLEY GROUP

365.38

247.50

371.50

Neutral

Sell

172

0.97

CHARLES TAYLOR

180.00

132.00

189.75

Neutral

Sell

102

0.68

CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP

1107.00

673.50

1107.00

Sell

Sell

175

0.87

F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT

106.50

64.75

110.40

Neutral

Neutral

103

0.89

3.70

0.55

3.70

Sell

Strong Buy

29

0.68

HENDERSON GROUP

168.80

90.55

171.00

Neutral

Sell

49

1.44

ICAP

330.00

281.40

431.50

Neutral

Sell

200

1.07
1.68

HELPHIRE GROUP

INTERMEDIATE CAPITAL GP.

422.00

227.30

422.00

Neutral

Sell

202

INVESTEC

487.10

310.40

513.50

Neutral

Sell

95

1.55

1385.00

930.00

1411.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3919

1.12

LONDON STOCK EX.GROUP

100.30

63.25

145.00

Neutral

Sell

94

1.32

RATHBONE BROTHERS

MAN GROUP

1532.00

1151.00

1532.00

Neutral

Sell

1119

0.74

SCHRODERS

2154.00

1166.00

2160.00

Neutral

Sell

1259

1.31

SCHRODERS NV

1727.00

966.00

1729.00

Sell

Strong Buy

4215

1.27

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 13 of 17

Over Valued

Support Services
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ACAL

233.00

157.75

242.50

Neutral

Buy

305

0.93

AGGREKO

1989.00

1557.00

2400.00

Neutral

Sell

1299

1.04

AMEC

1060.00

923.00

1172.00

Neutral

Neutral

1138

1.04

588.50

212.20

591.50

Neutral

Sell

318

1.61

1071.00

743.50

1106.00

Neutral

Sell

666

0.48

505.00

317.00

508.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

803

0.77

1298.00

990.00

1320.00

Neutral

Sell

823

0.55

UK MAIL GROUP

380.00

214.00

380.00

Neutral

Buy

444

0.38

CAPITA

881.50

602.00

904.50

Neutral

Sell

523

0.50

51.63

25.34

53.50

Neutral

Buy

68

0.78

COMPASS GROUP

835.00

616.00

846.00

Neutral

Sell

606

0.74

BERENDSEN

762.50

462.00

762.50

Sell

Buy

983

1.04

DE LA RUE

925.00

885.50

1075.00

Neutral

Sell

594

#NA

ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL

COMMUNISIS

Target

Beta

DIGNITY

1393.00

803.50

1435.00

Neutral

Sell

810

0.21

DIPLOMA

610.00

407.00

627.50

Neutral

Sell

488

0.95

ELECTROCOMP.

257.10

195.20

265.00

Neutral

Buy

321

1.03

FILTRONA

663.00

428.00

664.50

Neutral

Sell

357

1.10

G4S

298.30

240.00

307.50

Neutral

Neutral

291

0.58

98.50

66.40

100.00

Neutral

Buy

121

1.10

HOMESERVE

226.90

137.50

255.70

Neutral

Strong Buy

490

0.93

INTERSERVE

485.00

270.10

501.00

Neutral

Buy

692

1.27

3410.00

2406.00

3440.00

Neutral

Sell

1454

0.78

JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP

44.00

26.50

44.63

Neutral

Strong Buy

94

1.17

MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.

30.00

21.25

39.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

55

0.71

MENZIES (JOHN)

789.00

542.00

789.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1307

1.43

MICHAEL PAGE INTL.

449.10

341.40

497.00

Neutral

Sell

321

1.41

MITIE GROUP

291.00

253.90

300.80

Neutral

Buy

342

0.55

99.50

91.50

163.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

239

0.35

PAYPOINT

868.50

596.50

901.00

Neutral

Sell

694

0.70

PREMIER FARNELL

220.00

153.20

236.30

Neutral

Buy

287

1.32

REGUS

163.00

82.65

163.00

Neutral

Sell

107

1.45

99.00

69.40

99.00

Neutral

Sell

55

1.25

526.50

394.28

526.50

Neutral

Buy

637

0.91

HAYS

INTERTEK GROUP

OFFICE2OFFICE

RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RICARDO

416.25

304.50

416.25

Neutral

Buy

471

0.85

ROBERT WALTERS

215.00

176.25

264.63

Neutral

Buy

309

1.23

RPC GROUP

477.00

348.30

477.00

Neutral

Buy

535

0.78

RPS GROUP

264.80

197.00

264.80

Neutral

Sell

248

1.50

SERCO GROUP

624.50

509.50

633.00

Neutral

Sell

579

0.59

SHANKS GROUP

82.00

75.80

102.20

Neutral

Strong Buy

168

1.46

SPEEDY HIRE

46.00

22.25

46.00

Sell

Buy

52

1.25

135.00

70.00

135.00

Neutral

Sell

51

0.55

55.88

39.50

59.00

Neutral

Neutral

61

0.92

342.75

234.75

354.88

Neutral

Strong Buy

623

0.86

71.00

42.00

75.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

183

0.78

TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

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18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 14 of 17

Over Valued

Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

272.30

200.70

281.00

Neutral

Buy

Target
308

Beta

41.58

27.28

42.63

Neutral

Strong Buy

77

0.69

686.00

390.80

696.00

Neutral

Sell

578

0.53

0.90

KCOM GROUP

84.35

67.00

85.20

Neutral

Buy

119

1.24

TELECOM PLUS

997.00

659.00

1010.00

Neutral

Sell

664

0.11

VODAFONE GROUP

183.25

154.45

191.25

Neutral

Sell

156

0.54

Under Valued

Transport
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BBA AVIATION

264.90

178.00

264.90

Neutral

Sell

Target
191

Beta

BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.

388.50

309.50

425.00

Neutral

Buy

440

0.98

CLARKSON

1501.00

1150.00

1515.00

Neutral

Neutral

1429

0.81

EASYJET

1.29

1072.00

443.80

1072.00

Neutral

Sell

644

0.74

FIRST GROUP

204.40

175.70

297.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

530

0.90

FISHER(JAMES)& SONS

970.00

535.00

970.00

Neutral

Sell

376

0.77

1511.00

1086.00

1511.00

Neutral

Buy

1769

0.89

GO-AHEAD GROUP
NATIONAL EXPRESS

218.00

164.50

252.00

Neutral

Neutral

239

1.33

NORTHGATE

303.75

159.60

350.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

583

1.40

STAGECOACH GROUP

311.50

230.40

319.60

Neutral

Buy

349

0.89

54.25

31.00

81.50

Sell

Sell

-41

0.90

WINCANTON

Under Valued

Utilities
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

CENTRICA

352.00

306.30

361.40

Neutral

Buy

477

0.46

NATIONAL GRID

734.00

626.00

744.00

Neutral

Buy

815

0.49

PENNON GROUP

635.50

598.00

796.00

Neutral

Buy

761

0.58

SSE

1464.00

1294.00

1470.00

Neutral

Buy

1720

0.42

SEVERN TRENT

1647.00

1507.00

1796.00

Neutral

Sell

1469

0.34

689.00

594.00

747.50

Neutral

Sell

651

0.50

UNITED UTILITIES GROUP

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

Target

Beta

18 March 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 15 of 17

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