Rev Fish Biol Fisheries (2006) 16:201212 DOI 10.

1007/s11160-006-9008-8

ORIGINAL PAPER

Past and future sheries modeling approaches in the Philippines

Lualhati Lachica-Alino Matthias Wolff Laura T. David

Received: 23 February 2006 / Accepted: 29 June 2006 / Published online: 10 August 2006 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2006

Abstract Philippines coastal sheries research started during the colonization period in the 1800s with the basic taxonomic identication of the countries aquatic resources and a description of their distribution in national waters. Research further evolved with the change from localized sheries governance to a centralized one, presently, with a combination of both. The dramatic postwar expansion of Philippine sheries in the mid 1940s led to the need for sustainable resources management. In the mid-1970s, singlespecies sheries approaches (i.e. specically surplus production models) indicated the overshed state of the Philippine coastal sheries resources. These early models together with additional ecological and socioeconomic studies, served as inputs to coastal resources management initiatives, in the context of an ecosystem approach. The implementation of further management
L. Lachica-Alino (&) L. T. David Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City 1101, Philippines e-mail: llalino@upmsi.ph M. Wolff Center for Tropical Marine Ecology (ZMT), University of Bremen, Fahrenheitstrasse 6, D 28359 Bremen, Germany e-mail: mwolff@uni-bremen.de L. T. David e-mail: ldavid@upmsi.ph

schemes such as marine reserves and sh sanctuaries also resulted from these initiatives. The decentralization of governance of coastal resources in the 1990s led to participatory or co-management approaches for the local governance of coastal resources. The development and great improvement of ecosystem-based models in sheries science (such as Ecopath with Ecosim [EwE]) during this period allowed for investigations into the interactions of the multispecies and multigear sheries dynamics. Complementary models derived from single-species such as Yield per Recruit and Surplus production in conjunction with ecosystem-based (EwE-type) approaches are both needed in Philippine sheries research. An emerging framework for sustainable Philippine sheries management system requires mainstreaming of coastal governance with science based adaptive management for Philippine aquatic resources governance. Keywords Single-species models Ecosystem-based models Coastal resources management

Introduction: All models are wrong. (Box 1979) Fisheries models may differ according to the choice of modeling framework used and the

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questions being addressed. Some assume or purport to represent an ecosystem and its resource populations in steady state and others expect to provide a deterministic outcome once a set of population parameters has been determined. Others endeavor to simulate dynamic conditions by infusing stochastic processes and look at their probabilistic outcomes in hyperspace (e.g., three or four dimensional spaces). Thus, in sheries and ecosystem modeling, there is no single correct modeling framework (Walters et al. 1997). The choice of the model thus mainly depends on the question addressed and on the people who will interpret and use these tools for scientic, management and policy purposes. This review recounts the history of Philippine coastal sheries research as it evolved with the development of models from the single-species approach to an ecosystem-based analysis. Attributes of the different sheries models are described and models actually used in Philippine sheries research are presented. Then, the metamorphoses of these models are elucidated to explore possible areas for development. The option of integration of the ecosystem context to coastal management is an opportunity for further model applications. The Philippines is given particular attention as this region is at the heart of the Indo-Pacic, the center of diversity in the marine world (Bellwood and Hughes 2001; Carpenter and Springer 2005). The prospects of investigating the hottest of the hotspots in the world (Roberts et al. 2002), where overshing (Pauly and Chua 1988; Pauly et al. 1989) may be at its zenith is of considerable heuristic value. Fish is of specic signicance to the Philippines, providing over 66.7% of the total protein requirements of Filipinos (Barut et al. 2003). Worldwide, Filipinos are among the sh consumers with the highest per capita consumption of about 36 kg yr1 (Cruz-Trinidad 2003). Most of the families living in coastal areas rely on shing for sustenance. In 1997, about 56 million Filipinos (7.48.8% of the total population) depend directly on the shery industry for livelihood (Barut et al. 2003). This region is among the best studied in Southeast Asia where several sheries models have been used for management and policy

formulation such as the estimation of sustainable and economic yields in the 1980s (Silvestre and Pauly 1987; Dalzel et al. 1987; Trinidad et al. 1993). Modeling of multispecies dynamic sheries had also been derived using static trophic interactions of coastal sheries ecosystems in the 1990s (Alino et al. 1993; Campos 2003). Early in 2000, aspects of dynamic trophic ecosystem interactions were also explored (Alino and Dantis 1999; Bundy and Pauly 2001) to reveal mechanisms, which affect sustainability of sheries resources. At present further models are being developed, which allow researchers to consider the specic role of stochastic processes in coastal management in an ecosystem context (Geronimo et al. in press). The sections are arranged based on specic period, wherein the models were utilized to assess the status of Philippines coastal sheries resources.

Before the 1970s overshing problem: Philippine Fish Tales (Herre 1935) There are three major periods of Philippine sheries research prior to the early uses of singlespecies models in the Philippines in the 1970s: (1) The Spanish Period: mostly anecdotal accounts; (2) The U.S. period: real sheries science; (3) Philippine independence and postwar reconstruction: sheries sector development (modied from Pauly 1986). The highlight of the rst period (Spanish Period) is the rst recorded description of Philippine shes published in Madrid by Jose Gogorza y Gonzales in 1885 entitled Peces de las Islas Filipinas (Herre 1953). It was in the early 1900s with the entry of the U.S. colonization (US Period), that the rst 830 Philippine sh species were scientically identied and recorded based on Gunthers Catalogues of the Fishes of British Museum and eventually published in the paper entitled Checklist of the species of shes from the Philippine Archipelago by David Starr Jordan and Robert Earl Richardson in 1909 (Jordan and Richardson 1910). The book of Albert W. Herre in 1935 entitled Philippine Fish Tales described around 1,800 sh species in the form of short stories about these shes. Following the works of

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American researchers such as Jordan and Richardson (1910) and Herre (1935), the rst Filipino ichthyologists emerged in this period with Manila considered to have one of the most complete ichthyological libraries in the world (Herre 1953). World War II destroyed much of the publications from various collections, laboratories and libraries (e.g., from the Bureau of Science), but taxonomic studies continued after the Philippine independence in the mid 1940s (Philippine Independence and Post-war Reconstruction Period) (Herre and Umali 1948; Herre 1953). The development of the sheries sector (e.g., expansion of commercial sheries and increase in municipal shers), as a post-war effect led to initial investigations in other elds of sheries science, such as, biology and oceanography by various Filipino researchers in cooperation with some foreign scientists. Results from this research were then published in numerous scientic papers within and outside the Philippines (Blanco and Montalban 1951). These initiatives were supported by the Philippine Fishery Program under the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service authorized by Section 309 of the Philippine Rehabilitation Act (April 30, 1946). The Philippine Fishery Program was terminated in 1950. Ironically, just at that time the need for in depth research increased given the observed further expansion of commercial sheries (Tiews 1958). An increase in the number and size of indigenous Southeast Asian trawl sheries using the Japanese beam trawls (i.e., known as utase, the only commercial shing vessels operating in the country before the war (Umali and Warfel 1950) was observed as a result of the great initial prot potential (Pauly 1996). Similarly small-scale sheries also expanded and led to a tremendous increase in the number of municipal shers after the war years. As a consequence, shing pressure increased greatly endangering a sustained use of the sheries resources. For this reason, the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BAEcon) (at present the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, BAS, under the Department of Agriculture, DA, established under Executive Order No. 116 issued on January 30, 1987) initiated sheries monitoring systems. The rst accounts of the number of shermen and their catches were reported for the entire country

and the rst estimation of catch per unit of effort (i.e., in tons per year per sherman) was undertaken.

The 1970s overshing problem: How much food from the sea? (Alverson et al. 1970) The 1970s saw refocusing of research priorities on the emerging overshing problem. Fish stock assessment initiatives started with its basic purpose of recommending levels of optimum exploitation of marine living resources in order to obtain the maximum sustainable yield (MSY). In general these sheries models assume that each species has its own optimum exploitation rate (as dependent on its population dynamics) and that interactions among the shed species of a multispecies shery can be neglected. Given this assumption of minimal interspecic interaction, the abundance of a sh stock and its dynamics was considered to depend on relatively constant growth and mortality parameters, a xed stock-recruitment relationship, and the size at rst capture at which shery mortality is induced by shing (Silvestre et al. 1991). These ideas were those popularized by Ricker (1954) and Beverton and Holt (1957), and became the well-known yield per recruit model (Beverton and Holt 1957). Alternatively, MSY estimates were obtained by the application of the surplus production models of Schaefer (1954) and Fox (1970), which were basically derived from the logistic population growth curve and which are based on the assumption of a single-species biomass pool, whose size and production is dependent on the shery. In general, these surplus production models are mathematical representations of how shing affects a stock through the removal of its individuals and assume that the stock biomass is proportional to the catch per unit of effort (Sparre et al. 1989). Graham and Edwards (1962) introduced one of the earliest expressions of the relationship between production and catches, which postulates that an optimal catch amounts to about 50% of the annual production in an unexploited condition.

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In the Philippines, time series of catch and effort were shown not to be sufcient for an analysis using surplus production models based on the Schaefer and Fox models. Dalzell et al. (1987) derived annual eet horsepower (HP) from Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources of DA (DA-BFAR) statistics to reconstruct a time series of catch and effort data for the Philippine small pelagic sheries between 1948 and 1985 (Dalzell et al. 1991). Following this derivation, time series of annual shing effort on the demersal resources (19461984) were also estimated based on trawl HP units adjusted for the effects of learning and the addition of carrier vessels HP (Silvestre and Pauly 1987). Surplus production models showed declining catches starting in the mid 1970s mainly due to excessive shing effort (Silvestre and Pauly 1987), suggesting that the exploited stocks were biologically and economically overshed in the mid 1970s. With the early warnings of overshing, there was insufcient response to deal with the situation. The political conditions at the time did not seem to create the impetus to effectively deal with the problem. Perhaps the Philippines was in a denial stage such that in the 197080s more shing effort was encouraged by foreign loans to further expand shing effort in the coastal areas (Chua and Pauly 1989). These models seek to estimate the optimum shing effort leading to MSY without taking into consideration the internal interactive functions that affect the ecosystem such as species replacement and shift in size composition of the stock. Two major gaps or constraints have been identied by Sparre et al. (1989), Christensen (1996), Mace (2001) and Matsuda and Abrams (2004): (1) the inuence of shing pattern on recruitment variability remains unclear and (2) biological interactions among species are neglected. The rst one is constrained by the steady state assumption applied in the models. In this case regardless of the shing pattern, compensatory effects in recruitment are assumed and shing is believed to have a stimulating effect on the spawning stock. In the coastal ecosystem, this is less likely to be the case for the following reasons: (1) shing patterns vary (e.g., changes in gear type and selectivity, seasonality etc.) with an

often observed increase in selectivity for small sh, which is common especially in multispecies, multigear coastal sheries systems such as in the Philippine archipelago; and (2) depensatory effects are probable due to interactions within the stock (less spawners, less recruits) and between predators, and prey (a juvenilized stock (highly skewed by juveniles) may exhibit a higher natural mortality due to increased predation). The second constraint concerning the interaction of species should not be neglected in the ecosystem context (Mann 1982). In sheries ecosystems, individual components of a stock or even of a cohort interact and their interactions directly or indirectly affect the function of the system. In this context, the idea of placing sheries in their ecosystem context (Christensen and Pauly 2004) was developed already in the mid-1970s with the establishment of coastal resources management (CRM) initiatives. It involves the human dimension in the assessment of the status of the coastal sheries ecosystem.

After the 1970s overshing problem: Placing sheries in their ecosystem context (Christensen and Pauly 2004) The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Guidelines 2003 specically dened an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries (EAF) as the balance between interactions of biotic, abiotic, and human components of ecosystems, and the integration of sheries science uncertainties and ecological boundaries in understanding sheries ecosystem dynamics. The difculty in dening the human component as part of the ecosystem is one of the rst concerns of EAF. Historically the impact of the induced changes, specically shing (Jackson et al. 2001), has been evident since the early 1900s (i.e., after the World War I (19141918) when industrial-scale shing activities started). Since an ecosystem is made of interacting components (Mann 1982), the link with sheries is apparent from the effects (either directly or indirectly) on the components of the ecosystem. These different components manifest various response mechanisms and behaviors (Shugart and Urban 1988) ` vis-a-vis shing (topdown effect) (Pauly et al.

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1998). These effects or responses include other environmental factors as part of the overall system behavior (e.g., bottomup effect of upwelling systems) (Cury et al. 2000) and is evident in the dynamics of the entire systems behavior in time and space (Chapin et al. 1997). Thus, the studies of sheries are also able to provide opportunities as natural experiments to analyze and understand the dynamics of marine ecosystems. Following this, the next concern of EAF is the integration of sheries science and ecology. In the Philippines for the past 50 years, the level of sheries exploitation and sh stock densities has been inuenced by sociopolitical conditions given by governmental and non-governmental organizations, the traditional customs or practices, a set of laws (formal and informal), and social measures (Barut et al. 2003). Prior to the Spanish and American colonization, sheries in the country started with localized governance by indigenous communities and sheries resources were thus limited in terms of access (Lopez 1986). In the period of colonization the localized governance was changed to a centralized one. And the sheries resources became open access as a result of the Spanish regalian doctrine allowing people to sh not only within their localized boundary limits but also in any coastal waters within the Philippine marine jurisdictional boundaries (Barut et al. 2003). Besides new areas, new resources became accessible and the innovative imagination of the Filipino people led to the development and proliferation of a variety of efcient shing gears both large scale (i.e., shing vessels greater than 3 gross tons as dened in the Philippine sheries code including pa-aling (Miclat et al. 1991)) and small scale or artisanal sheries (i.e., boats less than or equal to 3 gross tons). Hook and line sheries were greatly replaced by more destructive and illegal shing methods such as double nets and blast shing (Pauly et al. 1989). Thus, Philippine sheries, as in many tropical countries, became not only multispecies but also multigear sheries, and new shers entered the shery without limitation and restriction. In the 1970s, sh demand had peaked but economic returns had declined already due to the state of overshing (Pauly and Chua 1988). In

this period due to the observed exploitation, resources management became an urgent issue. Fisheries science through the expansion of single-species models was integrated with ecological and socioeconomic resource assessments through the CRM approaches. CRM includes both community-based coastal resources management (e.g., Apo and Sumilon Islands in Central Visayas) (Russ and Alcala 1999), and integrated coastal management (e.g., the 12 priority bays of Fisheries Sector Program and 13 selected bays of Fisheries Resources Management Program of DA-BFAR). Various sectors of coastal ecosystems were integrated from its resource utilization to communities involvement and government implementation (Courtney and White 2000; Christie et al. 2005). The enactment of the Local Government Code (LGC) (i.e., Republic Act No. 7160) again transferred certain functions of the national government (i.e., decentralization) specically in CRM to local government units (LGU) (Pomeroy and Berkes 1997) which seems to go full circle but in another plane as compared to the situation before the colonization of the Philippines. CRM experiences in the country beneted a lot from these initiatives through the establishments of more marine reserves and sh sanctuaries managed by local ofcials with the help of various peoples organizations and non-government organizations (Alcala 2001). Both ecological and social components were incorporated in these programs in order to formulate plans for the sustainable management of coastal resources for specic coastal shing grounds around the country. Since it was clearly perceived that sociopolitical factors interact with sheries resources as well as with the ecological components of various coastal ecosystems in the Philippines, there is clearly a need to incorporate these interactive biological and sociopolitical factors in the modeling efforts to determine the sustainability of the shery resources (Olsen et al. 2005). While attempts were done to incorporate the human dimension in the study of sheries ecosystems in the Philippines through the CRM approach, the elucidation of the actual interaction process that links the sheries dimension to the ecosystem specically for application to its

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management was still lacking. The marriage of sheries and economics utilizing single-species modeling had already been done in several bioeconomic models developed for the Philippine coastal sheries since mid 1980s. However the marriage of sheries economics and the ecosystem, that is the integration of economics (house of humans or the socioeconomics and governance elements) also known as the human ecosystem (Naveh 2000), and ecology (house of nature or the biophysical factors) is still in its infancy (White and Cruz 1998; Padilla et al. 1997). The momentum for such studies is starting to accelerate and represents an opportunity for the Philippine sheries ecosystem research.

The 1990s CRM and beyond: The future for sheries (Pauly et al. 2003) In the period that the CRM in the Philippines were continuously surfacing, Filipino scientists started research on shing effects on the ecosystem in addition to applying single-species models that were commonly used during this period. This period coincided with the birth of the reformulated ECOPATH by Christensen and Pauly (1992), which is a multispecies ecosystem modeling approach that accounts for trophic interactions at all trophic levels of the ecosystem and which became the most popularized tool for the Philippine coastal ecosystems research. Other, earlier approaches here dened as more than one species-models comprised the Multi-Species Yield-Per-Recruit (MSYPR) Model (Murawski 1984) including technological interactions, aggregate production models (Whipple et al. 2000); multispecies production models such as Total Biomass Schaefer (1954) model (TBSM) (Ralston and Polovina 1982) and the Multispecies Virtual Population Analysis (MSVPA) (Pope 1991; Sparre 1991), which considers predator prey interactions in age and size structured populations of multispecies sheries. Though these models provided stock and yield estimates for other systems in other parts of region such as Thailand (Pope 1979), they were not used in the Philippine coastal ecosystems.

Instead, the inuence of the sheries scientists who developed ECOPATH (Villy Christensen and Daniel Pauly, which at this time were based in the Philippines through the International Center for Living Aquatic Resources, ICLARM, now known as The World Fish Center) on the research work of local Filipino scientists are clearly evident through the several initial trophic models constructed for different coastal ecosystems in the Philippines (i.e., San Miguel Bay, Lingayen Gulf, Lagonoy Gulf, Carigara Bay, Batangas Bay and San Pedro Bay) and using these as inputs for larger marine ecosystems such as the South China Sea (Pauly and Christensen 1993). Additional models were created, which are specic to a certain system such as the coral reef ecosystem (i.e., Bolinao reef at by Alino et al. (1993)) and culture system (i.e., sh pen culture in Laguna de Bay by De los Reyes and Martens 1994). ECOPATH was originally developed by Polovina (1984) for the coral reef ecosystem of the French Frigate Shoals, an area with minimal to no impacts of shing. His modeling approach included the mechanism of changing food preferences by predators given variable system conditions between and within years. Polovinas modications of the Lotka-Volterra equation explored possibilities of formulating systems of equations describing interacting multiple species with a steady-state assumption (i.e., situation of constant rates under equilibrium conditions). This ECOPATH uses simultaneous linear equations to construct a biomass box model to characterize and quantify trophic interactions within the ecosystem (i.e., quantitative ow networks in system level) (Polovina 1984; Whipple et al. 2000). However, despite the innovative way of elucidating the trophic interactions of a complex system such as the coral reef, this rst attempt of ECOPATH application still assumes a steadystate of ows and does not account for dynamic changes in the system. Given this steady-state limitation, however, in the construction of ECOPATH models many of Odums attributes of ecosystems going through different development stages are quantied. Steady-state models derived from the ECOPATH approach were thus used to describe ecosystem maturity of various aquatic

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ecosystems (Christensen 1995; Vasconcellos et al. 1997), and thereby proved to provide a quantitative basis for a comparative ecosystem research (Christensen and Pauly 1998). Thus, this approach was already useful for assessing the state of the ecosystem and to explore the impact of sheries on coastal aquatic ecosystems, which support the lives of a great number of coastal resource users (Christensen 2000). However, there was no attempt to use the original ECOPATH model for the Philippine setting. Instead, the Philippines made use of the reformulated ECOPATH version by Christensen and Pauly (1992), which emphasized the effects of shing on the ecosystem given the mass-balance assumption. Though several routines were added to the original model of Polovina over the years, its main limitation, the assumption of a steady state or equilibrium conditions of the ecosystem networks remained (Whipple et al. 2000, Plaganyi and Butterworth 2004). With the current development of ECOPATH, now known as ECOPATH with ECOSIM (EwE), developed during the second half of the 1990s, the model conguration was subjected to a signicant computational change (i.e., the set of linear algebraic equations was replaced by differential equations allowing compartment biomasses to dynamically change as a function of shing pressure and change in predation) (Walters et al. 1997; Walters et al. 1999; Walters et al. 2000; Pauly et al. 2000; Christensen and Walters 2004). Spatial considerations have also been incorporated in these models to reect the physical and behavioral refugia of the components of the system (Booth 2000; Watson et al. 2000; Watson et al. 2004). In this case, particular interest is focused on the consideration of ecosystem effects in evaluating the potential impact of Marine Protected Areas (MPA). Since EwE is the most widely applied tool to assess ecosystem effects of shing (Robinson and Frid 2003), its development to a more constructive tool for sheries management is still ongoing. Recent developments in the application of the density dependent simulation routine of EwE were also explored in the Philippine sheries research in the late 1990s. Bundy and Pauly (2001) worked on the coastal ecosystem of

San Miguel Bay along the Pacic coast of southeast Luzon, Philippines looking at the interactions between the sh and shery where the shery is considered the top predator in the system causing top-down effects on the ecosystem. The shery predators are the large and small-scale sheries observed to be commonly operating in the bay. The study concluded: (1) the low omnivory indices of sheries as predators (or compared with their biological counterpart) are indicative for the exploitation on a few trophic levels only; (2) the overall trophic impact (on the ecosystem) was greater by the small-scale than by the large-scale shery sector. The small-scale sheries allow to efciently target a great variety of different sh resources seemingly due to the greater variety of gears used in the area. Another simulation exploration was done in Batangas Bay (western Philippines) coastal ecosystem investigating the impact of pollution between coral reef and pela gic ecosystems (Alino and Dantis 1999). Various levels of phytoplankton and microfaunal biomass were simulated to increase due to pollution effects and siltation (i.e., 30% increased in producer biomass for 1 year, 30% for 5 years and 10% for 10 years). As was evidenced by these simulations, the coral reef system is much more vulnerable to siltation stress when compared to the pelagic ecosystem. Critical suggestions are enumerated in the paper of Plaganyi and Butterworth (2004) on the advantages and disadvantages of the EwE modeling approach. Critiques allow users of modeling tools like EwE to give cautious attention to the assumptions and limitations of these models specically in its potential application to CRM (Butterworth and Plaganyi 2004; Roux and Shannon 2004). Specically, there is concern both on the quality of input data used for these models (e.g., whether the data were actual eld data or only derived) as well as on the interpretation of the information that can be analyzed from these models with respect to appropriateness to CRM application (Wolff 2000; Whipple et al. 2000; Robinson and Frid 2003; Plaganyi and Butterworth 2004). Due to the great demand for data for EwE, present modeling approaches in the Philippines have revisited area-based estimates derived from

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aggregate sheries exploitation rates using mean eld conditions. Licuanan et al. (2004) simulates two interactive gears targeting demersal and pelagic sh in order to derive estimates of the size ` of no-take areas vis-a-vis options in regulating access of municipal versus commercial shing effort in the Philippines. There are also many other studies that investigate the size implications of MPAs and how their eventual spillover affects the sustainability of coastal sheries (Alino et al. 2004).

Summary: Can physics save sh stocks? (Kjartan 2000) The further development of sheries models from single species to multi-species approaches, from static to dynamic procedures and from deterministic scenarios to stochastic situations will continue in future. A great challenge is the incorporation of these models into a user-friendly decision support system that can easily be understood or transmitted to the managers to be incorporated in the CRM framework. Models must allow managers to visualize the problems of the resources and ecosystem use by developing it as handy tools with simple input data and easy to use output information. The relevance of a scientic investigation (in ecology or sheries science) is generally twofold: it is of explanatory or diagnostic value and it has a predictive capacity. Ecosystem-based models have the advantage of explaining the variability of interaction effects (e.g., predator and prey interaction) caused by shing to better understand marine ecosystems in general (Christensen 1996; Matsuda and Abrams 2004; Bascompte et al. 2005). Development of these kind of models, at present, should give particular attention to the lack of non-equilibrium (stochastic) ecosystem conditions, to spatially explicit comparisons that reect scale and qualitative attributes of the system (e.g. among systems with varying shing state effects) and to temporal and functional system interactions with environmental forcing effects (e.g. seasonal manifestations reecting overall recruitment variability, ontogenetic success ional ecosystem stages and phase-shifts).

Philippine sheries are largely societal driven, sociopolitical and economic externalities should be considered in the ecosystem-based approaches for coastal management (Browman and Stergiou 2004). Current sheries models are incorporating various schemes in ecosystem-based analysis to relate the impact of past management frameworks (Mace 2001). EwE for example though based on steady-state assumption have the capacity to simulate various scenarios given different coastal management options derived from traditional single-species approaches in the case of San Miguel Bay through adaptive management structure (Bundy 2004). EwE has the potential to consider economic factors when shing scenarios are being simulated (e.g., to answer questions like what shing strategy would allow for the best returns at the least detrimental effect to the ecosystem). Another example is the decision support model also known as the Fisheries Information for Sustaining HarvestsBioeconomic (Fish BE) Model being developed in the Philippines where shing strategy or the ways of effort regulation is modied in shing days (Licuanan et al. 2006). The overshing situation of the Philippines pointing to the fact that it is often not the models developed but rather the governance system (which at rst does not make the shermen part of the decision) and political or economic interests as well as the lack of law enforcement that prevents a sustainable shery. The main challenge of the present Philippine sheries researches is twofold: (a) provide the best governance framework (i.e., involving all stakeholders or interest groups in the management process right from the beginning and enforce regulations) (e.g., Environmental Governance projects, EcoGov); and (b) provide suitable and easy to use models to scientically aid decisions concerning the amount of shing effort and the type of shing gear to be allowed for a sustainable resource management an example is through a participatory process of model feedback and validation (e.g., the Sustainable Philippine Fisheries Agenda, SuPFA). The history of sheries research in the Philippines is closely linked to the advancement of scientic efforts in developing sheries models that could closely reect the stochastic nature of

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209 Lachica-Alino L, Munro P, Christensen V, D Pauly (eds.) Assessment, management and future directions for coastal sheries in Asian countries. Worldsh Center Conference Proceedings 67:1120 Bascompte J, Melian CJ and Sala E (2005) Interaction strength combinations and the overshing of a marine food web. PNAS [on line] 102 (15), 54435447 Available from the Internet URL http://www.pnas. org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0501562102 Belwood DR, Hughes TP (2001) Regional-scale assembly rules and biodiversity of coral reefs. Science 292:1532 1534 Beverton RJH, Holt SJ (1957) On the dynamics of exploited sh populations. Fish Invest Minist Agric Fish Food (GB) Series No II 19:533 Blanco GJ, Montalban HR (1951) A bibliography of Philippine shes and sheries. Philipp J Fish 1:115 138 Booth AJ (2000) Incorporating the spatial component of sheries data into stocks assessment models. ICES J Mar Sci 57:858865 Box GEP (1979) Robustness in the strategy of scientic model building. In: Launer RL, Wilkinson GN (eds) Robustness in Statistics. Academic Press, New York. 202p Browman HI, Stergiou KI (2004) Perspectives on ecosystem-based approaches to the management of marine resources. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 274(Theme Section):269303 Bundy A (2004) The ecological effects of shing and implications for coastal management in San Miguel Bay, the Philippines. Coast Manage 32:2538 Bundy A, Pauly D (2001) Selective harvesting by smallscale sheries: ecosystem analysis of San Miguel Bay, Philippines. Fish Res 53:263281 Butterworth DS, Plaganyi EE (2004) A brief introduction to some approaches to multispecies/ecosystem modeling in the context of their possible application in the management of South African sheries. Afr J Mar Sci 26(1):5361 Campos, W L (2003) Analysis of demersal sh assemblages in selected Philippine shing grounds, pp. 227 148, In Silvestre G, Garces L, Stobutzki I, Ahmed M, Valmonte-Santos RA, Luna C, Lachica-Alino L, Munro P, Christensen V, Pauly D (eds.) Assessment, management and future directions for coastal sheries in Asian Countries. Worldsh Center Conference Proceedings 67:1120 Carpenter KE, Springer VG (2005) The center of the center of marine shore sh biodiversity: the Philippine islands. Environ Biol Fish 72:467480 Chapin FS III, Walker BH, Hobbs RJ, Hooper DU, Lawton JH, Sala OE, Tilman D (1997) Biotic control over the functioning of ecosystems. Science 277:500 504 Christensen V (1995) Ecosystem maturity towards quantication. Ecol Model 77:332 Christensen V (1996) Managing sheries involving predator and prey species. Rev Fish Biol Fish 6:417442 Christensen V (2000) Indicators for marine ecosystems impacted by sheries. Mar Freshwater Res 51:447450

coastal ecosystems and incorporating these models to effective CRM framework. The question was posed can physics save sh stocks? (Kjartan 2000), and whether these sheries models based on various stochastic physical theories are myth or reality are continually being unfolded. We just have to remember that the myth is, that models are the reality. But the reality is not the models as mentioned, since all models are not all entirely correct (Box 1979). Rather it depends on how useful they are to people who use them and the consequences of decisions or inactions that are derived from the models. As in integrated coastal management, an ecosystem approach to sheries is managing peoples way of shing. The same is true with models and physics, it is mainly of great heuristic value and it is the people who will use them that have to be accountable for the sheries salvation or demise.
Acknowledgements Thanks to the critical comments and valuable inputs made by Professor Porrio M. Alino of the Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines particularly on the CRM initiatives and undertakings in the Philippines.

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