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15 November 2012| last updated at 11:09PM

THE ECONOMY: Good times in Asia soon

By Iftikhar Ahmad Fadzli and Ayesha Ellya Fadzli, Kuala Lumpur | letters@nstp.com.my

0 comments Read more: THE ECONOMY: Good times in Asia soon - Letters to the Editor - New Straits Times http://www.nst.com.my/opinion/letters-to-the-editor/the-economy-good-times-in-asia-soon1.171292#ixzz2NbGcrAQp

RECENTLY, the International Monetary Fund predicted that Greece, one of the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) economies that caused the economic doldrums in the eurozone, would recover in 2014.
We do not know what econometric tools IMF used to come to that conclusion, but the year in which Greece is supposed to recover economically is the same as our prediction. The tool we used to predict the economy is more esoteric in nature but it has proven to be accurate. One would think that the tools economists use would generate the most interest. Call it unconventionalism or curiosity factor but, inevitably, it is the more unusual indicators to which the public is most attracted. But that is a subject best discussed by social scientists.

We can tell you this, though. Having spent hours studying almost every indicator one can conceive of, the most consistent and best performing indicators are almost always behaviourally based. There is an element of human behaviour that is either: RESPONSIBLE for the indicator itself; or, CONTRIBUTES to how it functions and why it is relevant. That brings us to women's skirts, or their hemlines. The length of skirts reflects societal conditions and economic potential. The theory was established in 1926 by Wharton economist George Taylor. He said short skirts pointed to happy-go-lucky times while longer choices reflect more conservative underpinnings that, according to Taylor, existed because women couldn't afford stockings. Dr John Casti, co-founder of the X-Centre in Vienna and author of Mood Matters: From Rising Skirt Lengths to the Collapse of World Powers, said: "The rise and fall of great civilisations are biased by the attitudes a society holds to the future." As a proponent of the science of socionomics, Casti observed that when social mood was positive and optimistic, hemlines tended to be shorter. And, that the reverse is true when things were dour or the social mood was uncertain because they reflected the mass psychology. So what are hemlines telling us now? Singer Victoria Beckham used to wear minis so small that they were rumoured to cause minor cardiac arrests in males during the 1990s. Lately, though, she's been wearing pencil dresses with hems that run well past the knee. Singer Beyonce Knowles, model Miranda Kerr and actresses Hayden Panettiere and Eva Mendes are all sporting long hemlines. Even Angelina Jolie is in on the act. If one were to do check with fashionistas in London and New York, at 83cm, this year's hemlines are, on average, the longest they have been since the Great Depression. This suggests some conservative times ahead. But how far ahead? Two scientists from the Erasmus School of Economics, Dr Marjolien van Baardwijk and Dr Philip Hans Frances, took a look at this phenomenon in 2010.

Using data from 1921 to 2009, they determined that hemlines didn't necessarily predict economic performance, but they did find that economics seemed to determine hemlines with a three- to fouryear delay. Baardwijk and Frances wrote that "the current economic crisis predicts ankle-length skirts around 2011 and 2012". So far, as far as the Western economies are concerned, the predictions are right on schedule. Autumn and winter fashion shows this year in Paris, New York and Milan suggest conservative coverings with belts and slinky fabrics. If the relationship holds, the emphasis implies we need to be cautious until 2014. Not coincidentally, that is when a number of other esoteric indicators, including financial astrology calculations and wave cycle analytics, say Western economies, may finally turn the corner again. What of Asia's economy? There are two views: ONE camp says that because of the reliance of Asian economies on intra-Asian trade, Asia shall not be impacted too much by any degradation in the West's economy. This camp claims that despite the West suffering from economic malaise from 2007 to 2009, and still carrying the burden to date, Asia's economy remains vibrant, albeit, with a minor slowdown. THE other camp says Asia has not decoupled much from the West's economy and, therefore, Asia shall suffer as much as the West, economy-wise. Assuming a worst-case scenario, using historical indicators, if at all Asia's economy is impacted by the West's economy, Asia's economy would recover six to 12 months after 2014. But being based in Asia and travelling extensively in Asia, we notice one commonality across Asia: the prevailing trend in short hemlines indicate that Asia is heading for happy-go-lucky times.

Read more: THE ECONOMY: Good times in Asia soon - Letters to the Editor - New Straits Times http://www.nst.com.my/opinion/letters-to-the-editor/the-economy-good-times-in-asia-soon1.171292#ixzz2NbFKo0e2