Steel Industry Update/282

February 2013

Locker Associates, 225 Broadway, Suite 2625 New York NY 10007

Tel: 212-962-2980

Click on link below to go to table

Table 1: Selected U.S. Steel Industry Data, 2009-2012
Table 2: U.S. Spot Prices for Selected Products, February & Year-to-Date, 2013
Table 3: World Crude Steel Production, January & Year-to-Date, 2013
Table 4: Global Crude Steel Production, by Year, 2000-2012e
Table 5: U.S. Steel Exports, by Country, October 2012 & Year-to-Date
Table 6: Global Iron Ore Mine Production and Reserves, 2011-2012
Table 7: Global DRI Production, 2012
Table 8: Turkeys Top 10 Rebar Export Destinations, 2012
Table 9: Chinas Top 10 Steel Mills, by Output, 2012
Table 10: Japanese Steel Exports, by Product, 2012
Table 11: NLMK Steel Mill Production, 2012
Table 12: Severstal Production & Sales Volume, 2012
Table 13: Tenaris SA Financial Results, 3rd Quarter 2012
Table 14: Vale Output of Steel Mill Products October 2012 & Year-to-Date

Table 1: Selected U.S. Steel Industry Data, 2009 - 2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

% Chg

Raw Steel Production (mt).

58.2

80.5

86.4

88.6

2.5%

Mill Shipments (mt).

54.8

75.8

83.5

87.2

4.4%

Exports (mt)...

8.5

11.0

12.2

12.5

2.2%

Total Imports (mt).

14.7

21.7

25.9

30.4

17.4%

Average Spot Price* ($/ton)..

$553

$680

$867

$754

-13.0%

Average Scrap Price# ($/ton)..

$236

$348

$437

$398

-9.8%

(000 net tons)

Sources: AISI, World Steel Dynamics, US ITA, *composite of 3 carbon products; #shredded bundles

Table 2: U.S. Spot Prices for Selected Products, February & Year-to-Date, 2013
($ per net ton)

Hot Rolled Band....

Cold Rolled Coil........
Coiled Plate..................

Month of February
2013
2012
% Chg
631
735
-14.1%
727
830
-12.4%
722
934
-22.7%

2013
628
725
729

Year-to-Date
2012
732
830
942

% Chg
-14.2%
-12.7%
-22.7%

Average Spot Price....

$693

$833

-16.8%

$694

$835

-16.9%

OCTG*

1,878

2,014

-6.8%

1,878

2,014

-6.8%

#1 Heavy Melt...
Shredded Scrap...
#1 Busheling.

332
366
370

393
435
470

-15.5%
-15.9%
-21.3%

339
373
378

407
451
487

-16.6%
-17.3%
-22.5%

Iron Ore ($/dmtu)...

Pig Iron ($/tonne)...

150
385

140
450

7.1%
-14.4%

150
446

140
494

7.1%
-9.7%

Sources: World Steel Dynamics, Spears Research; SteelontheNet.com; IndexMundi.com; *OCTG and
iron ore data is January, 2013; pig iron data is December, 2012, $/dmtu: US$/dry metric tonne unit

Email: lockerassociates@yahoo.com | Website: www.lockerassociates.com

Steel Industry Update/282

Table 3: World Crude Steel Production, January & Year-to-Date, 2013
Month of January
Year-to-Date
(000 metric tons)
2013
2012
% Chg
2013
2012
Region

% Chg

European Union.
Other Europe.

13,452
3,015

14,157
3,334

-5.0%
-9.6%

13,452
3,015

14,157
3,334

-5.0%
-9.6%

C.I.S.

8,913

9,503

-6.2%

8,913

9,503

-6.2%

North America

10,139

10,451

-3.0%

10,139

10,451

-3.0%

South America...

3,611

3,731

-3.2%

3,611

3,731

-3.2%

Africa/Middle East.....

2,854

2,929

-2.6%

2,854

2,929

-2.6%

Asia..

82,325

79,174

4.0%

82,325

79,174

4.0%

Oceania......

491

490

0.3%

491

490

0.3%

Total

124,799

123,768

0.8%

124,799

123,768

0.8%

China.......
Japan...

59,339
8,865

56,733
8,630

4.6%
2.7%

59,339
8,865

56,733
8,630

4.6%
2.7%

United States..

7,260

7,707

-5.8%

7,260

7,707

-5.8%

India(e).

6,600

6,357

3.8%

6,600

6,357

3.8%

Russia..

5,751

5,775

-0.4%

5,751

5,775

-0.4%

South Korea.......

5,705

6,049

-5.7%

5,705

6,049

-5.7%

Germany...

3,550

3,367

5.4%

3,550

3,367

5.4%

Turkey..

2,859

3,135

-8.8%

2,859

3,135

-8.8%

Ukraine...

2,748

2,873

-4.4%

2,748

2,873

-4.4%

Country

Brazil

2,620

2,791

-6.1%

2,620

2,791

-6.1%

All Others....

19,502

20,351

-4.2%

19,502

20,351

-4.2%

Source: World Steel Association, 2/13; e=estimate

Graph 1: World Crude Steel Production, January 2013

Source: World Steel Association, 2/13; in million metric tons

-2-

Steel Industry Update/282

Graph 2: World Steel Capacity Utilization, January 2013

Source: World Steel Association, 2/13

Graph 3: World Crude Steel Output, 2005-2012e

Source: World Steel Association, 2/13

-3-

Steel Industry Update/282

Table 4: Global Crude Steel Production, by Year, 2000-2012e

Year
2000

Output (mil tonnes)

847.6

Yr-Yr % Chg
--

2001

850.3

0.3%

2002

904.0

6.3%

2003

969.9

7.3%

2004

1,069.1

10.2%

2005

1,146.7

7.3%

2006

1,251.2

9.1%

2007

1,351.3

8.0%

2008

1,307.3

-3.3%

2009

1,211.5

-7.3%

2010

1,413.6

16.7%

2011

1,490.0

5.3%

2012(e)

1,510.0

1.3%

Source: Worldsteel.org, 1/8/13

Table 5: U.S. Steel Exports, by Country, October 2012 & Year-to-Date

Country
Canada

Oct12
574,922

Sep12
534,016

% Chg
7.7%

YTD12
5,758,658

YTD11
5,574,166

% Chg
3.3%

Mexico

393,691

319,206

23.3%

3,582,069

2,814,065

27.3%

41,153

37,339

10.2%

514,841

459,316

12.1%

543

1,087

-50.0%

6,212

7,324

-15.2%

Turkey

1,293

1,160

11.5%

18,097

29,615

-38.9%

Brazil

13,827

9,125

51.5%

179,914

117,850

52.7%

7,312

4,062

80.0%

104,570

56,457

85.2%

549

430

27.7%

10,862

38,671

-71.9%
-52.2%

EU
Russia

Venezuela
Ecuador
Argentina

284

980

-71.0%

6,109

12,792

Colombia

6,170

7,510

-17.8%

107,572

93,976

14.5%

Trinidad & Tobago

2,500

340

635.3%

13,201

16,543

-20.2%

Peru

6,172

13,922

-55.7%

165,052

104,885

57.4%

Chile

3,864

3,447

12.1%

22,593

26,452

-14.6%

17,648

28,312

-37.7%

186,243

187,905

-0.9%

7,604

1,088

598.9%

57,522

101,510

-43.3%

Other W. Hemis

10,216

22,178

-53.9%

193,613

236,670

-18.2%

Africa

10,157

11,295

-10.1%

124,228

220,678

-43.7%

Dominican Rep
Panama

Australia

4,320

3,008

43.6%

32,958

30,181

9.2%

China

9,828

11,234

-12.5%

103,753

127,992

-18.9%

Other Asia

44,134

12,709

247.3%

245,678

222,095

10.6%

Others

29,627

35,353

-16.2

343,797

543,839

36.8

1,185,814

1,057,801

12.1%

11,777,542

11,022,982

6.8%

Total
Source: AIIS, 12/17/12

Steel Industry Update (ISSN 1063-4339) published 12 times/year by Locker Associates, Inc. Copyright 2013 by Locker Associates, Inc. All
rights reserved. Reproduction in any form forbidden w/o permission. Locker Associates, Inc., 225 Broadway Suite 2625 New York NY 10007.

-4-

Steel Industry Update/282

Table 6: Global Iron Ore Mine Production and Reserves, 2012e

Country
China
Australia

2012e
1,300
525

2011
1,330
488

Reserves
23,000
35,000

Brazil

375

373

29,000

India

245

240

7,000

Russia

100

100

25,000

Ukraine

81

81

76,500

South Africa

61

60

1,000

Other countries

61

59

12,000

United States

53

55

6,900

Canada

40

34

6,300

Iran

28

28

2,500

Kazakhstan

25

25

2,500

Sweden

25

25

3,500

Venezuela

20

17

4,000

Mexico

13

15

700

Mauritania

12

12

1,100

3,000

2,940

170,000

2012e
19,739
11,395

2011
27,560
10,150

% Chg
-28.4%
12.3%

Mexico

5,510

5,945

-7.3%

Saudi Arabia

5,160

5,153

0.1%

Egypt

4,540

2,933

54.8%

Venezuela

4,510

4,470

0.9%

Trinidad & Tobago

1,693

1,915

-11.6%

Argentina

1,586

1,650

-3.9%

South Africa

1,410

1,400

0.7%

World total

Source: Payvand, 2/6/13; in million tonnes

Table 7: Global DRI Production, 2012

Country
India
Iran

Canada

824

702

17.4%

Peru

95

95

0.0%

Total

56,462

63,474

-11.0%

Source: Worldsteel.org, 1/2/13; in 000 tonnes

-5-

Steel Industry Update/282

Table 8: Turkeys Top 10 Rebar Export Destinations, 2012

Year 2012
1,246,723

Year 2011
858,793

Dec 12
104,838

Dec11
91,973

UAE

979,657

1,220,078

114,615

92,987

Saudi Arabia

677,341

231,053

74,556

30,291

US

597,375

372,518

121,978

146,092

Yemen

487,422

238,422

50,604

53,924

Egypt

455,548

390,945

4,972

70,975

Israel

439,271

406,435

26,472

33,089

Libya

361,646

60,081

64,518

8,250

Lebanon

315,880

222,613

35,165

14,160

Ethiopia

287,511

174,943

11,251

19,871

Country
Iraq

Source: Steelorbis.com, 2/5/13; in tonnes

Table 9: Chinas Top 10 Steel Mills, by Output, 2012

Company
Hebei Iron & Steel Group

2012
69.2

Share
9.7%

Anshen Iron & Steel Group

45.3

6.3%

Baosteel Group

42.7

6.0%

Wuhan Iron & Steel Group

36.4

5.1%

Shagang Group

32.3

4.5%

Shougang Group

31.4

4.4%

Shandong Iron & Steel Group

23.0

3.2%

Magang Group

17.3

2.4%

Tangshan Bohai Steel Group

17.3

2.4%

Hunan Valin Iron & Steel Group

Total of Top 10 Steelmakers

14.1
329.0

2.0%
45.9%

Other Steelmakers
Total of All Steelmakers

388.0
717.0

54.1%
100.00%

Source: Reuters, 2/3/13; in million tonnes

Table 10: Japanese Steel Exports, by Product, 2012

Product
Pig iron

2012
402,584

2011
52,885

Ferroalloy

230,394

132,879

73%

6,071

51,004

-88%

5,512,929

5,111,373

8%

Total ordinary steel products

27,678,225

27,372,448

1%

Total specialty steel products

Total secondary steel products

7,852,004
675,682

7,709,654
671,595

2%
1%

Total iron and steel products

42,494,856

41,234,288

3%

Ingots
Semi-finished products

Source: SteelGuru, 2/2/13; in tonnes

-6-

% Chg
661%

Steel Industry Update/282

Table 11: NLMK Steel Mill Production, 2012

Product
Pig iron
Crude steel

2012
2.88
3.67

2011
2.96
3.77

% Chg
-2.7%
-2.6%

Salable pig iron

0.04

0.11

-60.8%

Salable slabs

1.04

1.05

-1.4%

Flat products

2.08

2.16

-3.8%

Long products

0.35

0.38

-6.3%

Metalware

0.07

0.08

-15.1%

Total steel

3.58

3.78

-5.2%

Source: SteelGuru, 2/2/13; in million tonnes

Table 12: Severstal Production & Sales Volume, 2012

Production
Russian Steel
Severstal NA

2012
10,553,560
4,586,626

2011
11,354,746
3,938,661

% Chg
-7%
16%

Hot metal (total

10,256,881

10,543,687

-3%

Russian Steel

8,407,000

8,815,059

-5%

North America

1,849,881

1,728,628

7%

Crude steel total

15,140,185

15,293,407

-1%

Sales Volume
Coking coal concentrate
Iron ore pellets

2012
7,513,436
10,439,413

2011
7,591,670
10,051,406

% Chg
-1%
4%

Iron ore concentrate

4,759,702

4,763,870

0%

Total steel products

14,605,102

14,824,074

-1%

Total steel products (Russian)

10,295,098

11,027,695

-7%

4,464,137

3,808,552

17%

Total steel products (SNA)

Source: SteelGuru, 1/30/13; in tonnes

Table 13: Tenaris SA Financial Results, 3rd Quarter 2012

Item

Q3 '12
2,657.1

Q2 '12
2,801.5

% Chg
-5%

Q3 '11
2,494.80

Operating income

583.6

620.9

-6%

468.6

Net income

437.5

460.2

-5%

365.5

Shareholders' net income

436.4

461.1

-5%

325

Earnings per ADS

0.74

0.78

-5%

0.55

Earnings per share

0.37

0.39

-5%

0.28

EBITDA

679

758.6

-10%

603.6

26%

27%

Net sales

EBITDA margin (% of net sales)

Source: SteelGuru, 11/9/12; in US$ millions

-7-

24%

Steel Industry Update/282

Table 14: Vale Output of Steel Mill Products October 2012 & Year-to-Date
Product
Iron Ore

Q4'12
85,498

Q4'11
82,944

% Chg
3.1%

2012
319,690

2011
322,632

% Chg
-0.9%

Pallets

12,090

12,344

-2.1%

55,067

53,817

2.3%

Manganese
Coal
Nickel

668

757

-11.8%

2,365

2,556

-7.5%

1,951

1,608

21.3%

7,082

3,707

91.0%

64

69

-7.2%

237

242

-2.1%

Copper

81

85

-4.7%

292

302

-3.3%

Potash

161

180

-10.6%

549

625

-12.2%

2,060

1,833

12.4%

7,982

7,359

8.5%

Phosphate Rock

Source: SteelGuru, 2/12/13; in 000 tonnes

-8-

Steel Industry Update/282

Locker Associates, Inc.

LOCKER ASSOCIATES is a business-consulting firm that specializes in enhancing the
competitiveness of businesses and industries on behalf of unions, corporate and government clients.
By combining expert business and financial analysis with a sensitivity to labor issues, the firm is
uniquely qualified to help clients manage change by:

leading joint labor/management business improvement initiatives;

facilitating ownership transitions to secure the long-term viability of a business;
conducting strategic industry studies to identify future challenges and opportunities;
representing unions in strategic planning, workplace reorganization and bankruptcy
formulating business plans for turnaround situations; and
performing due diligence for equity and debt investors.

Over the last 28 years, the firm has directed over 225 projects spanning manufacturing,
transportation, distribution and mining industries. Typical projects involve in-depth analysis of a
firms market, financial and operating performance on behalf of a cooperative labor-management
effort. Locker Associates also produces a widely read monthly newsletter, Steel Industry Update
that circulates throughout the U.S. and Canadian steel industry.

MAJOR CLIENTS
United Steelworkers
Bank of Boston
Congress Financial
Santander Investment Securities
AEIF-IAM/AK Steel Middletown
Prudential Securities
US Steel Joint Labor-Mgmt Comm
LTV Steel Joint Labor-Mgmt Committee
Intl Union of Electrical Workers
Bethlehem Joint Labor-Mgmt Comm
Inland Steel Joint Labor-Mgmt Comm
Northwestern Steel and Wire
Boilermakers
American Federation of Musicians
USS/KOBE
Sysco Food Services of San Francisco
International Brotherhood of Teamsters
Development Bank of South Africa
J&L Structural Steel

Air Line Pilots Association/Delta Air Lines MEC

Sharpsville Quality Products
IPSCO
International Association of Machinists
CSEA/AFSCME
United Auto Workers
Service Employees International Union
American Fed of Television & Radio Artists
Supervalu
United Mine Workers
Algoma Steel
North American Refractories
UNITE/HERE
AFL-CIO George Meany Center
Watermill Ventures
Wheeling-Pittsburgh Steel
Canadian Steel Trade & Employment Congress
Minn Gov's Task Force on Mining
Special Metals

RECENT PROJECTS
Metallic Lathers and Reinforcing Ironworkers (2010-Present): strategic industry research and
ongoing advisement on major industry trends and companies to help enhance the competitive
position of the unionized NYC construction industry
Building & Construction Trades Council of Greater NY (BCTC) (2011-present): analysis and
advisement regarding major trends in the New York City construction industry, including capital
market developments which affect BCTC members
Communication Workers of America (CWA) (2011-present): research and analysis to prepare
CWA for nationwide contract negotiations with AT&T
IBT-Supervalu (2010): assist union and management to identify major operational problems
impacting warehouse performance and provide recommendations for joint improvement
Metallurgical Coal Producer (2011): prepared a detailed study on the major trends in the world
metallurgical coal market for a large metallurgical coal producer
-9-