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Conclusion questions in the Critical Reasoning section ask you to identify the conclusion that can be logically arrived at on the basis of the information in the given passage. The conclusion questions may be worded in many different ways such as: (i) Which of the following conclusions can be properly drawn from the statements above? (ii) The statements above best support the conclusion that .... (iii) If the statements above are true, which of the following must also be true? (iv) From the information above, it can be properly concluded that .... (v) The author of the above passage argues that .... (vi) Which of the following is best supported by the passage above? We shall first give you a number of typical examples of conclusion questions and also analyse them for your benefit to guide you on how such questions should be tackled. Apart from spotting the correct answer, we shall also explain why each of the other choices is wrong. Try to answer these questions by yourself first before reading the analyses below. Example 1 Macklin Countys mandatory driver-training program for fifteen-year-old high school students was discontinued ten years ago, and since then private driver-training program enrollment has increased only slightly. During the same period the countys accident rate increased by 12 percent for drivers between the ages of sixteen and twenty-five, even though traffic conditions changed little. Which of the following conclusions is best supported by the information above? (A) Graduates of public driver-training programs tend to be safer drivers than graduates of private drivertraining programs tend to be. (B) Drivers between the ages of sixteen and twentyfive, on average, have higher accident rates than do drivers over the age of twenty-five. (C) The majority of people who take some type of driver-training program do not become involved in an accident when they are between the ages of sixteen and twenty-five (D) Changes in traffic conditions affect the accident rate of drivers over the age of twenty-five more than they do that of drivers between the ages of sixteen and twentyfive (E) As a group, drivers between the ages of sixteen and twenty-five become involved in fewer accidents if they participate in a driver-training program than if they do not. Analysis (Mandatory means legally required or compulsory) The first part of the first sentence gives the information that the Macklin Countys compulsory driver-training program for 15-year old students was discontinued ten years ago. The second part adds that, since then, enrollment in the (voluntary) private driver-training program in the County has shown only a slight increase. The second sentence says that, during the last ten years (after the discontinuance of the compulsory requirement), the Countys accident rate for drivers between the ages of 16 and 25 increased by 12%, even though traffic conditions had changed little. We have been asked to identify the choice that forms the conclusion best supported by the given information. The obvious conclusion that can be drawn from the given information is that, if there is a compulsory drivertraining program for 15 year old students, drivers between the ages of 16 and 25 get involved in fewer accidents. In other words, drivers between the ages of 16 and 25 who had undergone a driver-training program get involved in fewer accidents than those who had not undergone such a program. It is (E) which says this, and is the answer. (A) would have been correct if the private drivertraining programs had attracted all the teenagers who would have otherwise been trained by the compulsory public driver training program. But the second part of the first sentence of the narrative specifically states that private driver-training program had attracted very few additional enrollments during this period, implying that many of those who had been involved in subsequent accidents had not undergone any training programs at all. So, (A) is not a conclusion that is warranted by the information in the narrative. The narration compares the accident rates involving only drivers between the ages of t6 and 25 before and after the discontinuance of the mandatory driver-training program for the 15-year old students. It does not compare the accident rates for drivers younger than 25 with the accident rates for drivers over the age of 25. So, (B) is not a conclusion that is warranted by the information in the narrative. The passage merely implies that youngsters who had undergone a driver-training program are less likely to get involved in accidents than are those who have not undergone such a program. Choice (C) which states that a majority of youngsters who take some type of drivertraining program do not get involved in accidents at all goes much beyond the scope of what is stated in the passage, and is wrong. The narration specifically says that there had been little change in the traffic conditions during the period covered by the survey. (D), which refers to the contribution of changes in traffic conditions to the accident rates, is irrelevant to the information in the given passage, and is not the answer. (Note that, in this example, (A), (B) and (C) are wrong because they go beyond the scope of what is stated in the passage, while (D) is wrong because it is irrelevant to the information in the passage.) Example 2 A group of subjects saw a film of two cars colliding. Immediately afterward, half of the group were asked a set of questions about the cars bumping into one another, while the other half were asked the same questions, but with the verb smash substituted for bump. In later descriptions of the filmed collision, subjects in the latter half were more likely to remember seeing broken glass.
New GRE - Logical Reasoning The experiment described above best supports which of the following conclusions about eye-witness testimony? (A) A witness who is agitated at the time of an event is likely to give less accurate testimony than is a calm witness. (B) A witnesss perception of an event will be distorted if inflammatory language is used by the questioner. (C) The manner in which a witness is questioned after an event can influence the recollection of the witness. (D) Most eyewitness testimony can be assumed to contain inaccurate elements. (E) Special questioning techniques can be developed that will be more conducive to eliciting accurate information from witnesses than traditional techniques have been. Analysis (In this question, the word subjects in the first line means persons) What the narrative states is that a number of persons were first shown a film depicting the collision of two cars. Subsequently, they were divided into two groups, and those in the first group were given a questionnaire in which the word bump was used, while those in the second group were given the same questionnaire with a single variation - the word bump having been substituted by the word smash. The narrative then states that the persons in the second group, for whom the word smash was suggested, were more likely to remember seeing glass having been broken during the collision. What this means is that though two witnesses had seen the same event, their recollection of that event can be influenced by the manner in which questions are put to them. So, (C) is the answer. (A) talks of two different witnesses one of whom was agitated at the time of seeing the event while the other was calm. But the passage talks of a single group of persons who were all shown the same film of two cars colliding. This single group was only subsequently divided into two groups just for the sake of being given two different questionnaires containing just one significant variation. There is no evidence in the passage that the first of these groups had been agitated even while seeing the film while the other had remained calm. So, (A) is irrelevant to the information in the passage. Even assuming that the word smash is more inflammatory than the word bump, the result of the experiment described in the passage is that those to whom the word smash was suggested were more likely to remember seeing broken glass, implying that they would be more accurate than the other group for whom the word bump had been suggested. So, (B) contradicts what is stated in the passage, and is not the answer. (If the last sentence in the passage were, In later descriptions of the filmed collision, subjects in the latter half were more likely to imagine seeing broken glass, this choice would have been the correct answer.) The statement in (D), Most eyewitness testimony can be assumed to contain inaccurate elements, is a sweeping generalisation which cannot follow as a necessary conclusion from a single experiment that is described in the passage. (All conclusion questions will be based on the narration of a single event having a limited scope, and any such sweeping generalisation in one of the choices is likely to render it wrong.) (E) extends the scope of the result of the experiment much beyond what is specifically stated in it. So, though what is stated in (E) may be true, it does not follow
immediately from the given passage, and is not the answer. (Note that, among the wrong choices in this example, (A) is irrelevant to the information in the passage, (B) contradicts the given information, (D) is an unwarranted and sweeping generalisation and (E) extends the scope of the given information beyond what can be reasonably inferred.) Example 3 In a study of more than 8,000 people using ten beaches on two of the Great Lakes, ecologists from the University of Toronto determined that the rate of respiratory and gastrointestinal illness among people who had been swimming was 69.6 per 1000, whereas the respiratory and gastrointestinal illness rate among those who had not been swimming was only 29.5 per 1,000. Which of the following conclusions can be most properly drawn from the data above? (A) People tend to underestimate the risks of swimming in these lakes. (B) Respiratory and gastrointestinal illnesses occur at a higher rate as a result of swimming in either of these lakes than they do as a result of swimming in any other lake. (C) Illnesses of kinds other than respiratory and gastrointesinal are not likely to be associated with swimming in either of these two lakes. (D) The association between swimming in these lakes and respiratory and gastrointestinal illness is some evidence for a causal relationship between them. (E) A large percentage of the people who swim in these lakes are immune to the diseases that swimming may cause. Analysis (The Great Lakes of USA are Lake Superior, Lake Michigan and Lake Huron.) The passage says that a sample study of 8,000 persons using ten beaches of two of the Great Lakes showed that nearly 7% of the swimmers among them had respiratory and gastrointestinal illnesses, while only 3% of the non-swimmers among them had these illnesses. We have been asked to spot that choice which can be a logical conclusion that can be validly drawn from this study. From the given information, you may be tempted to conclude that swimming in these lakes can cause respiratory and intestinal illnesses. (You cannot conclude that swimming in these lakes will cause these illnesses because, after all, the increase in percentage of swimmers who are affected is a mere 3%, and 93% of the swimmers are found to be not suffering from these diseases.) 1 But you do not know how many beaches there are along the shores of these two Great Lakes, how many thousands of persons are using these beaches and whether 10 beaches and 8,000 people are large enough and representative samples from which a conclusive inference can be drawn about all those who swim in these lakes from all the other beaches along their shores. (For example, if these 10 beaches are located near factories which pollute the water in the region of the lake near them, the phenomenon may be restricted to the water near these beaches alone, and not to the entire waterspread.) Therefore we can, at best, conclude from the given data that there is some evidence of a cause and effect
ANALYSIS
SET 1 Answers 1.D 2.E 3.B 4.C 5.E 6.D 7.B 8.A 9.E 10.B Analysis 1. The given passage states that, for being accepted by the delivery service, a package must fulfill both of the two conditions: (i) it must be within the established size limits; and (ii) it must contain a return address. We have been asked to spot that choice which is a logical conclusion that can be drawn from these two statements. The given passage does not refer to the charges of delivery at all. So, (A) extends the scope of what is stated in the passage, and is not a necessary conclusion from it. (B) contradicts the second condition that, for being accepted, the package must necessarily have a return address also. (C) looks like a correct answer, but is not valid because, the statement that the delivery service will never accept packages which do not fulfill the two conditions does not imply that it will necessarily accept all packages which fulfill these two conditions. (For example, it may yet reject a package for other reasons such as it being packed loosely, or that it contains a highly inflammable substance, a poisonous chemical etc.). This choice also extends the scope of the given information. (D) reiterates that a package which conforms to one of the rules but not the other will not be accepted by the delivery service, and is the answer. As pointed out with reference to (A), the passage does not talk about charges at all. Therefore, (E) also extends the scope of the given information, and is not a necessary conclusion from it. 2. (The incumbent means a person who is holding office as President of USA at the time of the election, and is seeking a second-term.) What the passage says is that if, during a Presidents term, there had been an increase in the per-capita income of the people, his chances of reelection would be brighter. It even quantifies it by stating that, for every 1% increase in the per-capita income, he can get 2.2% more votes than he would otherwise have got. It seeks to substantiate this argument by pointing out that, in the only election year since 1952 when the per-capita income had declined, the incumbent President was defeated in the election. We have been asked to spot that statement among the choices which would logically follow from this passage. (A) contradicts the specific instance cited in the passage of an incumbent President having lost an election, and is wrong. (B) and (D) are irrelevant to the issue, because the passage talks of the prosperity of the general public, and not of the candidate. (C) is also irrelevant to the passage because the passage does not talk of the public image of the incumbent at all. (E) is what can be directly inferred from the passage, because it states that the result of an election is not solely determined by the ideological positions of the candidates, but can be influenced by other factors such as an increase in the per-capita income of the people. So, (E) is the answer. 3. What the passage means is that, among monkeys, there are different kinds of alarm signals for different birds, for different walking animals and for different reptiles. Adult monkeys give many different alarm calls depending on which enemy bird, or which enemy animal, or which enemy reptile is on the prowl. But infant monkeys know only three alarm calls the first for any flying bird, the second for any walking animal, and the third for any reptile. The obvious explanation for this behaviour of infant monkeys is that they first learn only to distinguish among the three broad groups -birds, animals and reptiles. It is only when they mature into adults that they are able to make distinctions among different birds, different animals and different reptiles. So, (B) is the answer. (A) contradicts the specific information in the passage that both adult and infant monkeys do use sound patterns that communicate information to the other monkeys in the group. (C) is incorrect because, in the case of both adult and infant monkeys, the word alarm is used. We can therefore infer that infant monkeys also know that the significance of producing the sound is to alert other monkeys of impending danger, or to seek help. This choice therefore contradicts the information in the passage, and is wrong. (D) does not follow from the given passage, since the passage does not mention the relative skills with which the adult and the infant monkeys give the three basic alarm calls that relate to a flying animal, a walking animal and a long, thin animal. (D) therefore seeks to extend the scope of the information in the given passage, and is wrong. (E) is wrong for the same reason as (C), since the word alarm is used in the case of infant monkeys also, implying that infant monkeys also recognize that eagles, leopards and snakes posed dangers to them. Thus (E) also contradicts the information given in the passage. 4. The first sentence says that, if calcium is taken in recommended doses by teenagers, it gets stored by their bones. The second sentence says that, beyond the age of 35, it is not possible to replenish (meaning to add to the stock of) calcium in the body, and the bodys needs for calcium beyond this age are met from the stock already available in the bones. The third sentence says that those who have more bone mass in their system are less likely to suffer from osteoporosis in their old age beyond 50. The obvious conclusion from these statements is that, if a person wishes to avoid osteoporosis in old age, he should start consuming the recommended levels of calcium when he is in his teens, and continue to take them. Neglecting such intake when one is in his teens, but consuming calcium after one crosses 35 (when the bodys capacity to absorb calcium has ceased), will not help him to avoid osteoporosis in his old age. In other words, this means that, between a person who had consumed sufficient quantities of calcium in his teens, and another person who started consuming calcium after he had crossed 35, the former is more likely to escape from osteoporosis in old age than the latter. It is (C) which states this, and is the answer. Since the passage says that calcium in the bone is not replenished beyond the age of 35, consumption of calcium after the age of 35 does not result in the prevention of
to diminish, though the average speed of vehicles on the highways has risen (but still being less than the speed limit of 55 mph). We have been asked to spot the logical conclusion that can be drawn from these facts. The obvious conclusion from the given statements is that, while the imposition of the speed limit was certainly a cause for reduction in accident rate, it had not been the only cause because, in that case, the continuing fall in the accident rate when the speed limit has not been reduced further cannot be explained, and so there must be other causes also (Examples: improvements in the safety aspects of vehicles, physical segregation of vehicles plying in opposite directions etc.). Among the choices, it is (A) which states this, and is the answer. Both (B) and (C) extend the scope of the information in the passage beyond what can be immediately inferred from it, and are wrong. (D), if true, would have resulted in an increase, and not a decrease, in accidents, and thereby contradicts the given information. (E) contradicts the first part of the given statement that the number of deaths per mile fell abruptly in 1955 as a result of the imposition of the speed limit of 55 miles per hour.
9. It is easy to see that the authors primary concern is the continued existence of his country as a nation. He believes that, in order to ensure its continuing as a nation, active measures must be taken to preserve national security, even though some of these measures may not be morally acceptable. We have been asked to spot that choice which follows logically from the authors statements. Since the author talks only of security measures and not of foreign policy, (A) unnecessarily extends the scope of the information in the passage, and is not a logical conclusion from it. What the author says is that his countrys continued existence as a nation depends upon preserving national security. His thinking therefore applies only to those countries which wish to continue as a nation. (B) extends the scope of the information to cover all countries, and is therefore wrong. The author says that only some active measures that are taken to preserve national security may not be morally acceptable. (C), which implies that all such active measures are immoral, is an uncalled-for generalization of the authors statement, and is wrong. The author says that active steps to preserve the national security must be taken even though some of them may not be morally justified. He does not say that these immoral steps would become moral just because they help the country to preserve itself as a nation. So, (D) also extends the scope of the authors statement beyond what can be immediately inferred, and is not the answer. What the author means by the last sentence is that adherence to morality is less important than ensuring the nations security. (E) states just his, and is the answer. 10. This is a very simple question camouflaged to sound difficult. From the phrase Of women in the primary childbearing age range of eighteen to twentyfour who account for about 40 percent of all births in this country annually ....., we can infer that the remaining about 60% of the annual number of births in the country
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