Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | March 5, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | March 5, 2013 News and Analysis

International Commodities
Performance during the day
Index Nifty Open High

Spanish Services PMI declined to 44.7-mark in the month of Feb. UKs Services PMI rose by 0.3 points to 51.8-mark in the last month. European Retail Sales rose by 1.2 percent in the month of January. European equities are trading higher today on the back of expectations that central banks over the world will continue with its stimulus measures program. US stock futures are trading in the green and Asian markets ended on a positive note. Spanish Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 2.3 points to 44.7-mark in February from earlier rise of 47-level in January. Italian Services PMI declined by 0.3 points to 43.6-level in February as against a rise of 43.9-mark in January. European Retail Sales rose by 1.2 percent in January as compared to previous decline of 0.9 percent a month ago. UKs Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 0.3 points to 51.8-mark in February as against a rise of 51.5-level in January. Spot gold prices increased by 0.5 percent on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. Additionally, weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX) also supported an upside in the gold prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1,583.80/oz and hovered around $1,581.29/oz today till 4:30pm IST. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee capped sharp gains in the prices on the MCX. Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with upside in the basr metal complex, Spot silver prices gained by 1 percent today. Weakness in the DX also acted as a positive factor for the prices. The white metal touched an intra-day high of $28.96/oz and was trading at $28.85/oz in todays trade. On the domestic markets, prices traded on a flat note but appreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented sharp gains in the prices. The base metals pack, traded on a positive note on account of expectations that central banks over the world will continue with its bond buying program, upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, decline in LME inventories apaprt from Copper also supported an upside in the prices. Nymex crude oil prices increased by 0.3 percent today taking cues from shut in the pipeline in the North Sea after a leak was discovered which created the supply concerns. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX also acted as a positive factor for the prices. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped as a result of expectations of rise in US crude oil inventories. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to st rise by 0.7 million barrels for the week ending on 1 March 2013.

as at 4.30 pm 5 March 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5722.45 18943.62 11732.57 2022.41 15663.65

5790.10 19164.04 11779.42 2031.65 15863.52

5722.40 18943.62 11666.38 2016.60 15660.95

5784.25 19143.17 11683.45 2016.61 15660.95

1.50 1.40 0.27 0.17 1.52

Source: Reuters

Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE

as at 4.30 pm 5 March 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

82.21 1.3025 54.85

82.24 1.3075 54.92

81.955 1.3015 54.60

82.175 1.302 54.86

-0.10 -0.04 -0.16

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 5 March 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Mar13 MCX Gold Apr13 Spot Silver Comex Silver May13 MCX Silver May13 Crude Oil Nymex Apr 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil* MCX Crude Oil Mar 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper April13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Mar13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Mar13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Mar13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Mar13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1573.50 1577.60 29649.00 28.54 28.23 54434 90.23 110.10 4955 7761.75 430.60 2010.00 110.15 2224 122.35 16560 913.90 1980.00 107.60

1583.80 1583.00 29725.0 28.96 28.75 54434 90.70 111.06 4977 7818.00 432.20 2035.50 110.90 2249 123.00 16710 916.60 2000.00 108.20

1573.04 1577.30 29577.0 28.52 28.58 53763 90.12 110.10 4955 7759.25 429.60 2010.00 109.80 2222 121.80 16549 910.30 1978.75 107.40

1581.29 1581.50 29668.00 28.85 28.75 53801 90.39 110.68 4951 7766.00 430.30 2012.50 110.00 2222 122.15 16549 913.30 1987.50 107.80

0.51 0.60 0.00 1.05 1.03 0.00 0.30 0.54 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.58 0.00

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | March 5, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook For the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade on a positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, expectations that central banks over the world will continue with its bond buying program will also support an upside in the prices. However, sharp upside in the base metals will be capped as a result of US non-manufacturing PMI expected to come on a negative note. Also, forecast for the rise in the US crude oil inventories will prevent sharp gains in the crude oil prices. Technical Outook for evening session 5 March 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)
Commodity Gold April '13 Spot Gold Silver May13 Spot Silver Brent Crude Mar13 Crude Oil Mar13 Nymex Crude Oil Apr13 Natural Gas Mar13 LME Copper Copper April13 Zinc Mar13 Lead Mar13 Aluminum Mar13 Nickel Mar13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 29480 1564 54470 28.35 6028 4916 89.3 192 7683 428 108.6 120.7 106.4 901 Support 1 29600 1573 54680 28.51 6050 4954 90.04 194.6 7726 429.5 109.4 121.5 107.1 906 CMP 29705 1582 55194 28.9 6090 4972 90.34 197 7765 430.55 110.05 122 107.9 909.3 Resistance1 29770 1585 55400 28.99 6097 5010 91.1 198.2 7818 432.3 110.9 122.8 108.6 918 Resistance 2 29855 1592 55820 29.4 6122 5056 91.9 200.8 7850 434 111.85 123.4 109.2 924

Important Events for Today

Indicator BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y Average Cash Earnings y/y Spanish Services PMI Italian Services PMI ECOFIN Meetings Services PMI Retail Sales m/m ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Country UK Japan Europe Europe Europe UK Europe US Time (IST) 5:31am 7:00am 1:45pm 2:15pm All Day 3:00pm 3:30pm 8:30pm Actual 2.7% 0.7% 44.7 43.6 51.8 1.2% Forecast -0.3% 47.8 43.6 51.5 0.3% 55.0 Previous 1.9% -1.7% 47.0 43.9 51.5 -0.8% 55.2 Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium High