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Project Background
Advisors: Stephen Connors & David Marks Prior work:
The Energy Box
Daniel Livengood (ESD 11) Woei Ling Leow (ESD 12)
Support:
Cyprus Institute Energy, Environment and Water Research Center Klegerman and Rabinowitz Funds
Background Methodology Findings Recommendations
Cyprus Context
EU mandate to triple wind and solar usage Recent supply shortages Drivers of demand: 1. A/C 2. Tourism
2013 Installed Capacity
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
Cyprus Context
EU mandate to triple wind and solar usage Recent supply shortages Drivers of demand: 1. A/C 2. Tourism
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
Cyprus Context
Hourly Demand (MW)
Dec. 31 00:00
EU mandate to triple wind and solar usage Recent supply shortages Drivers of demand: 1. A/C 2. Tourism
Jan. 1
12:00
24:00
Demand Response
Consumers are paid to shift energy usage when called Grid-scale impacts:
Lowering peak consumption Reacting to wind and solar fluctuations
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
Research Question
How can Cyprus change the shape of the demand curve?
Must understand how electricity loads operate
HVAC Advance notice Recovery rate Recovery penalty >= 0 hours 0.5 200%
Elevator 0 0%
Load length
Shift length Direction of shifts
<
= Load length or
= 30 minutes
<= 3 hours
<
N/A or
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
11:00 AM
12:00 PM
11:00 AM
12:00 PM
11:00 AM
12:00 PM
12:00 PM
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
Model Structure
Excel GUI & Fast Output Viewer Scenario Generator
(Python script Karl Critz, SDM 11)
WILMAR+DR
(GAMS/CPLEX based on WILMAR model from Ris National Lab, Denmark )
WILMAR: Wind Integration in Liberalized Markets DR: Demand Response Fully linear optimization
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
Stochasticity
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50
0
12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00
Forecasts
Weighted average
Model re-optimizes a sliding window of 16 scenarios every 3 hours Scenario generator enables sensitivity analysis of any inputs
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
Stochasticity
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50
0
12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00
Forecasts
Weighted average
Past values
Model re-optimizes a sliding window of 16 scenarios every 3 hours Scenario generator enables sensitivity analysis of any inputs
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
Stochasticity
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50
0
12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00
Forecasts
Weighted average
Past values
Model re-optimizes a sliding window of 16 scenarios every 3 hours Scenario generator enables sensitivity analysis of any inputs
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
Stochasticity
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50
0
12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00
Forecasts
Weighted average
Past values
Model re-optimizes a sliding window of 16 scenarios every 3 hours Scenario generator enables sensitivity analysis of any inputs
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
Stochasticity
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50
0
12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00
Forecasts
Weighted average
Past values
Model re-optimizes a sliding window of 16 scenarios every 3 hours Scenario generator enables sensitivity analysis of any inputs
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
Limitations
Does not model transmission & distribution Only models event-based demand response Modeling of loads could be even more realistic
Adds nonlinearities
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
Model Output
Status Quo Generation (MW) Change in grid demand (MW)
Calls to delay load
12PM Sunday
Recovery
12PM Monday
12PM Tuesday
12PM Wednesday
12PM Sunday
12PM Monday
12PM Tuesday
12PM Wednesday
DR In Action:
raises troughs flattens peaks
DR inaction:
12PM Sunday 12PM Monday 12PM Tuesday 12PM Wednesday
Background
Model Output
Status Quo Generation (MW) Change in grid demand (MW)
Calls to delay load
12PM Sunday
Recovery
12PM Monday
12PM Tuesday
12PM Wednesday
12PM Sunday
12PM Monday
12PM Tuesday
12PM Wednesday
DR In Action:
raises troughs flattens peaks
DR inaction:
12PM Sunday 12PM Monday 12PM Tuesday 12PM Wednesday
Background
Model Output
Status Quo Generation (MW) Change in grid demand (MW)
Calls to delay load
12PM Sunday
Recovery
12PM Monday
12PM Tuesday
12PM Wednesday
12PM Sunday
12PM Monday
12PM Tuesday
12PM Wednesday
DR In Action:
raises troughs flattens peaks
DR inaction:
12PM Sunday 12PM Monday 12PM Tuesday 12PM Wednesday
Background
Model Output
Status Quo Generation (MW) Change in grid demand (MW)
Calls to delay load
12PM Sunday
Recovery
12PM Monday
12PM Tuesday
12PM Wednesday
12PM Sunday
12PM Monday
12PM Tuesday
12PM Wednesday
DR In Action:
raises troughs flattens peaks
DR inaction:
12PM Sunday 12PM Monday 12PM Tuesday 12PM Wednesday
Background
Findings
My findings are preliminary. The findings shown here are borrowed from a recent study:
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
Policy Recommendations
1. CERA: create a demand response pilot program in Cyprus 2. EAC: implement the program
Begin with largest energy consumers Diversify load types
3. TSO: Track grid impacts when EAC calls demand response 4. Scale the program up with wind and solar
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations
Next Steps
Learn which load types are most useful Assess which sectors to include Address policy design challenges
How to adjust payment from customer to customer? Should certain sectors be opt-in or opt-out?
Background
Methodology
Findings
Recommendations