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Disclaimer
The views expressed are those of the presenter and should therefore not necessarily be viewed and not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank.
Outline
Outline
The GovC aims to maintain inflation rates at levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
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20 11 20 13 20 15 20 17 20 19 20 21 20 23 20 25 20 27 20 29 20 31 20 33 20 35 20 37 20 39 20 41 20 43 20 45 20 47 20 49 20 51 20 53 20 55 20 57 20 59 20 61
20
40
60
80
100
120
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-11
-1.0
Source: Bloomberg, ECB and ECB calculations. Latest observation: September 2011, end-of-month data (inflation swaps) and monthly data (HICP), percentage points.
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Strategic safeguards
Credible commitment towards mandate Consistent framework for analysis and decision-making Clear and transparent communication
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Economic analysis
Monetary analysis
cross checking
Medium-term orientation
Broad-based analysis
Cross-checking of analyses
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Outline
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Economic Analysis
The Economic Analysis aims at identifying short- to medium-term risks to price stability. Forward-looking assessment of relevant information from a variety of indicators (e. g. business cycle, wages, exchange rate, asset prices, financial yields, fiscal policy, etc.). Quarterly macroeconomic projections for inflation and growth in the euro area, prepared by staff of the Eurosystem/ ECB
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Economic Analysis
The scope of the Economic Analysis are factors determining supply- and demand-conditions on
goods markets, services markets, and factor markets [capital markets, labour markets].
It investigates shocks to the economy, the resulting dynamic processes as well as the perspectives stemming from that.
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Economic Analysis
Among the indicators relevant for Economic Analysis are
price indicators, expenditure components, production indicators, sentiment indicators, labour market indicators and financial market indicators.
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Outline
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Monetary Analysis
The Monetary Analysis aims at identifying medium- to longer-term risks to price stability. The basis of Monetary Analysis is the conviction that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, at least in the long-run. Money has leading indicator properties for inflation in the euro area in the medium- to long-run. Regular monitoring of money and credit developments contributes to identifying emergence of unsustainable developments in asset prices.
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Monetary Analysis
M M* P* P
M* M* M*
P
P* P* P*
t
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Monetary Analysis
Monetary Analysis is mainly based on balance sheet data of the money-issuing sector, i.e. so-called Monetary Financial Institutions [MFIs].
Assets Credit to general government
Loans Securities
Liabilities Currency in circulation Overnight deposits Other short term deposits Marketable instruments Holdings of central government Longer term liabilities
21
12
12
10
10
-2 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-11
-2
Source: ECB. Latest observation: July 2011, monthly data, annual growth rates, percentage points.
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Outline
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24
25
0
Fe b0 Au 0 g0 Fe 0 b0 Au 1 g0 Fe 1 b0 Au 2 g0 Fe 2 b0 Au 3 g0 Fe 3 b0 Au 4 g0 Fe 4 b0 Au 5 g0 Fe 5 b0 Au 6 g0 Fe 6 b0 Au 7 g0 Fe 7 b0 Au 8 g0 Fe 8 b0 Au 9 g0 Fe 9 b1 Au 0 g1 Fe 0 b1 Au 1 g11
Source: ECB. Latest observation: August 2011, monthly averages of daily observations
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Fe b0 Au 0 g0 Fe 0 b0 Au 1 g0 Fe 1 b0 Au 2 g0 Fe 2 b0 Au 3 g0 Fe 3 b0 Au 4 g0 Fe 4 b0 Au 5 g0 Fe 5 b0 Au 6 g0 Fe 6 b0 Au 7 g0 Fe 7 b0 Au 8 g0 Fe 8 b0 Au 9 g0 Fe 9 b1 Au 0 g1 Fe 0 b1 Au 1 g11
Source: ECB. Latest observation: August 2011, monthly averages of daily observations
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Outline
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Euribor (3M)
180
150
120
90
60
30
0 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Nov-10 Jul-11 Nov-09 Nov-08 Nov-07 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10
Source: Bloomberg and ECB calculations. Last observation: 15 September 2011, daily observations
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31
Pre-Lehman frontloading
300.0 280.0 260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0
300.0 280.0 260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0
11/07/07 14/07/07 17/07/07 20/07/07 23/07/07 26/07/07 29/07/07 01/08/07 04/08/07 07/08/07
08/08/07
11/08/07
14/08/07
17/08/07
20/08/07
23/08/07
26/08/07
29/08/07
01/09/07
04/09/07
07/09/07
10/09/07
Reserve requirements
Reserve requirements
EUR billions
33
Source: ECB.
Deposit facility
0
Au g0 O 7 ct -0 D 7 ec -0 Fe 7 b0 Ap 8 r-0 Ju 8 n0 Au 8 g0 O 8 ct -0 D 8 ec -0 Fe 8 b0 Ap 9 r-0 Ju 9 n0 Au 9 g0 O 9 ct -0 D 9 ec -0 Fe 9 b1 Ap 0 r-1 Ju 0 n1 Au 0 g1 O 0 ct -1 D 0 ec -1 Fe 0 b1 Ap 1 r-1 Ju 1 n1 Au 1 g11
Source: ECB. Last observation: August 2011, monthly averages of daily observations.
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%
10
0 J a n -0 7 M a r-0 7 M a y -0 7 J u l-0 7 S e p -0 7 N o v -0 7 J a n -0 8 M a r-0 8 M a y -0 8 J u l-0 8 S e p -0 8 N o v -0 8 J a n -0 9 M a r-0 9 M a y -0 9 J u l-0 9 S e p -0 9 N o v -0 9 J a n -1 0 M a r-1 0 M a y -1 0 J u l-1 0 S e p -1 0 N o v -1 0 J a n -1 1 M a r-1 1 M a y -1 1 J u l-1 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Short-term
0 J a n -0 7 M a r-0 7 M a y -0 7 J u l-0 7 S e p -0 7 N o v -0 7 J a n -0 8 M a r-0 8 M a y -0 8 J u l-0 8 S e p -0 8 N o v -0 8 J a n -0 9 M a r-0 9 M a y -0 9 J u l-0 9 S e p -0 9 N o v -0 9 J a n -1 0 M a r-1 0 M a y -1 0 J u l-1 0 S e p -1 0 N o v -1 0 J a n -1 1 M a r-1 1 M a y -1 1 J u l-1 1 0 1
Small loans to NFCs Loans for house purchase (over 5 and up to 10 years) Consumer credit Eonia (monhtly average) Large loans to NFCs Loans for house purchase (over 10 years) Other lending
Long-term
(over 5 years)
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10 %
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Temporary improvements
Against background of improved money market conditions ECB introduced exit strategy from non-standard measures, as they were temporary by nature
Non-continuation of purchases of covered bonds Partly withdrawal of liquidity provision in foreign currency Non-continuation of long-term liquidity provision
No pre-determined sequence between the exit from nonstandard measures and interest rate action Assessment of risks to price stability primary criterion
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DE
FR
IT
ES
IE
PT
GR
4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
bp
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Purchases ensure depth and liquidity in dysfunctional securities markets and are conducted on secondary markets only.
39
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Literature
Monthly Bulletin The ECBs monetary policy stance during the financial crisis (January 2010) The ECBs response to the financial crisis (October 2010) Asset price bubbles and monetary policy revisited (November 2010)
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Literature
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Literature
The European Central Bank, the Eurosystem, the European System of Central Banks
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Literature
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