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Steve Nisons Profiting in Forex :

Using Candlesticks to Catch the Next Move

By

Steve Nison, CMT President: Candlecharts.com


Tel: 732-254-8660 Fax: 732-390-6625 Web site: www.candlecharts.com Email: nison@candlecharts.com

Overview
Construction of the Candle Line Power of Single Candle Lines Insights of the Candle Patterns Forex and Non Forex Candle Patterns Blueprint for Forex Trading Success
East meets West Using I t d U i Intraday candles dl Money management Trading Psychology The Candlestick Screener Screener
1

Constructing the Candlestick Line


high close

Shadow
open

Real Body Bod


open low close

Real Bodies / Shadows


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Doji
2

Bulls vs. Bears


The R l B d i th E Th Real Body is the Essence of the Price Movement f th P i M t

Whos in control?
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Small Real Bodies


(spinning tops) ( )

Criteria C

Small real body color S not important

Implication Prior trend is losing force o ce


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What does this bar chart say?


Holding the highs very well so looks fine

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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Now what does this candle chart say?


Does the market still look fine?

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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And what happened after .

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Spinning Tops

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

Although descending, the small real g g, bodies offset some of the negative outlook 8

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Doji

Criteria:

Open and close are the same

Implication: Market is tired

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Doji

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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10

Spinning Top and Doji


GBP/$
If a spinning top is small enough we can view it as a doji

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11

Doji compared to spinning tops in FX

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12

Non Forex Doji


Which of these scenarios is a more likely top reversal?

Scenario 1 S i
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Scenario 2 S i
13

Doji in Forex

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14

Doji

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15

Doji

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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16

Doji as Resistance

Criteria: Use the highest high of those two sessions (top of upper shadow) as resistance Implication: Close over that area: market is refreshed

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17

Doji as Resistance

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18

Doji as Resistance

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19

Nison Trading Principle #6

A candlestick line or pattern requires two criteria:


The shape of the line or pattern The preceding trend

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20

Doji and Trend


Concept: C t To use a northern doji as a signal we need to have p an uptrend to reverse Doji i D ji in a Box Range is B R i not a trading signal

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21

Candles in Context of Trend

Isnt this doji in a trading range?

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y y

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22

Shadows S ado s

Remember: location and size of the shadow should be considered when analyzing the market psychology. Implication: Bearish long upper shadow offsets rallying strength. Bullish long lower shadows hints bears losing 23 force.

Bullish Shadows

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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24

Bearish Shadows

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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25

Bearish Shadows

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT

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26

Hammer

Criteria: Small real body at, or near top, of range at top Lower shadow at least 2x real body Market in down trend Implication: Groping for a bottom Groping bottom
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black or white

27

Hammer

Will often retest lower shadow


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28

Hammer as support

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT co rtes

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29

Hammer as support

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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30

Shooting Star
black or white

Criteria: Small real body at, or near bottom, of range at bottom Upper shadow at least 2x real body Market in an up trend Implication: Signaling Trouble Overhead Signaling Overhead
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31

Shooting Star - Hammer

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT

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32

Shooting Star as resistance

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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33

High Wave Candles g d s

Criteria: very long shadows and lower small real body - color not important Implication: Trend is losing force
34

High Wave Candles

Did the Euro have a sense of direction?

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35

The Checkmate Principle p


Bearish Checkmate: A series of tall white candles followed by black candles or small real bodies near the same resistance level. It reveals that the bulls drive is being checkmated Bullish Checkmate: A series of long black candles followed by white candles or small real bodies near the same support level. It reveals that the bears drive is being checkmated g
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36

Bull Checkmate

1 of 2

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Chart courtesy of Genesis FT

37

Bull Checkmate

2 of 2

Checkmate area

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38

Bullish Engulfing Pattern


Criteria: White real body wraps around preceding black real body Market in down trend Implication: Market bottoming out p c o : e bo o g ou

open open close

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39

Bullish Engulfing Pattern

Checkmate area

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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40

Bullish Engulfing Pattern

Chart Ch t courtesy of G t f Genesis FT i

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41

Bullish Engulfing Pattern as Support

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT

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42

Bullish Engulfing Pattern

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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43

Bearish Engulfing Pattern

open close open

Criteria: Black real body wraps around preceding white real body Market in up trend Implication: Bulls have been Bulls constrained
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44

Bearish Engulfing Pattern

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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45

Bearish Engulfing Pattern

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46

Bearish Engulfing Pattern as Resistance

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47

Engulfing Patterns compared to Outside Reversal

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48

Engulfing Patterns Compare Real Bodies

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49

Engulfing Patterns

Bullish
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Bearish

50

Both are Bearish Engulfing

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51

Bullish Engulfing Pattern

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52

Bullish Engulfing Pattern as Support

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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53

Non Forex Dark Cloud Cover


Criteria: Opens above prior high (or close) Black real body closes deeply into prior long white candle Market moving north Implication: Advance is exhausting Advance itself

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54

Forex Dark Cloud Cover


Criteria: Opens at (or within few pips) of prior close Black real body closes deeply into prior long white candle Market moving north Implication: Advance is exhausting itself

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55

Dark Cloud Cover as Resistance


Weekly Weakly

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56

Dark Cloud Cover

Not dark cloud covers

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57

Dark Cloud Covers

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58

Dark Cloud Cover


Close open 1 pip

Didnt get g deeply into white candle

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59

Non Forex Piercing Pattern


Criteria: Market moving south Opens below prior low (or close) White candle closes more than halfway into prior long black candle Implication: hint that the decline is exhausting itself

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60

Forex Piercing Pattern


Criteria: Market moving south Opens at (or near) prior close White real body close more than halfway into long prior black candle
Implication: hi li i hint that the d li h h decline i is exhausting itself

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61

Piercing Pattern

Not a piercing pattern

Piercing pattern

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62

Piercing Pattern Confirming Support

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63

Piercing Pattern as Support

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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64

Confluence of Candles

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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65

Non Forex Harami


Bearish i
white or black

Criteria: First candle is unusually long Second real body spinning top or doji Second real body within prior real body Second real body can be black or white
66

white or black

Bullish

Implication: Change in flow of market

Forex Harami
Bearish i
black real body

Criteria: First candle is unusually long Second real body spinning top or doji Second real body within prior real body Second real body opposite color
67

white

Bullish

Implication: Change in flow of market

Bear Harami

Not harami

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68

Harami confirms resistance

Chart Ch t courtesy of G t f Genesis FT i

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69

Bull Harami

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70

Bull Harami

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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71

Harami
Bearish

Bullish
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72

Non Forex Morning Star


Criteria: Market in down trend First candle long black S Second real b d ( i i t d l body (spinning top, bl k or black white) doesnt overlap first sessions real body Third candle (white) closes deeply in ( ) py first black real body Implication: Bulls are taking control

white or black
73

Forex Morning Star


Criteria: Market in down trend First candle long black Second real b d i bl k or d ji S d l body is black doji Third candle (white) closes deeply in first black real body Implication: Bulls are taking control

Most time black or doji


74

Morning Star Confirms Support

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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75

Non Forex Evening Star


white or black
Criteria: Market in an up trend p First candle is long white Second real body (black or white spinning top) doesnt overlap first sessions real body Third candle (black) closes deeply in first white real body Implication: Bears are taking control

76

Forex Evening Star


Most time white or hit doji

Criteria: Market in an up trend p First candle is long white Second real body is white spinning top or doji Third candle (black) closes deeply in first white real body Implication: Bears are taking control

77

Evening Star

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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78

Evening Star

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y Chart courtesy of Genesis FT

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79

Evening Star Variation


Bear Engulf

Near resistanc e would you sell short?

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80

Evening Star as resistance area

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81

Don't ever forget risk- reward on't riskIfThen system Stops: Always use p y Candles in Context IntraIntra-day candle charts Pace trades to market environment Let L t go of emotions f ti Indicators: The more the better Never trade without an eye to news Examine how market acts at support/resistance
82

Slide 34

DISCIPLINE:
Your Blueprint for Forex Trading Success

83

Don t Don't ever forget on't on riskrisk- reward

84

Nison Trading Principle #4

Even a perfect candle signal perfect does not equal a good trade! YOU MUST ALWAYS JUDGE THE POTENTIAL TRADES RISK-REWARD

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85

Hammer confirms support/but what about r/r?

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT

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86

Risk/ Reward

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT

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87

Morning Star but ????

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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88

Risk Reward

Let s Lets think about this R/R

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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89

If..Then system

90

Dont Stay Around

Target

What are you doing hanging g around! Youre wasting precious resources.

Hammer and Bull Engulf

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91

Stops: Always use

92

Stops
Where is the stop?

1 of 2

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93

And what happened after

2 of 2

What if it went to here? Would you still want to be short?

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94

Setting Stops w/o waiting for close


Shooting star close = 121.92 Target = 121.64 Potential reward 28 pips For 2:1 reward risk = risk 14 pips Shorted 121.92 + 14 pips = Intraday stop 122.06

Shooting star confirms resistance

Target

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95

Indicators: The more the better

96

Nison Trading Principle #12

The more signals - either candles or Western or a combination of both converging at the same level, the more likely a reversal

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97

Confluence of Candles

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT

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98

Confluence of Candles

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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99

Western Tools
Trend lines: The Candlestick Screener Screener Change of Polarity Crack and Snap/Falling Off the Roof Price Targets Oscillators Bollinger Bands Fibonacci Retracements Record Sessions
100

Confluence

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101

Examine how market acts at support or resistance i t

102

The Candlestick Screener


Using candles at support or resistance to screen for the best probability trades

103

Using the Candlestick Screener Screener


Is the market at resistance? Are there any reversal signals?

1 of 3

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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104

Using the Candlestick Screener Screener


Is the market at resistance? Are there any reversal signals?

2 of 3

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105

Using the Candlestick Screener Screener

3 of 3

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106

The Candlestick Screener

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107

Using candles to enter vs. exit


Doji

Hammer

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108

Candles to exit or adjust stops

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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109

Change of Polarity

Congratulations you bought at support!

110

Congratulations? you bought at support?

Change of Polarity

Resistance Resistance Support Support

111

Change of Polarity

Resistance Support zone becomes

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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112

Internal trend line

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113

East and West = Increased Confidence

Doji Prior support becomes new resistance

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114

Crack and Snap


Target

Snap Buy y Crack Stop

115

Falling off the Roof


Stop

Sell

Target g

116

Crack and Snap

target

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT

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117

Falling off the roof!

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118

Nison Trading Principle #13

Candlesticks do not give price targets.

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119

Candles and price targets


Doji confir ms resista nce

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120

Change of Polarity and Measured Moves

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121

Western Techniques for Targets

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122

West for Targets

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123

Head and Shoulders

Head Left S f Shoulder

Right g t Shoulder

Neckline

Sell signal

Head and Shoulders Top

124

Three Buddha Pattern

125

Applying Western Techniques to Candle Charts

Neckline

LS Head
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RS

126

East and West: West for Targets

1 of 2

April 6

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127

West for price targets - East for confirm

2 of 2

Target

Piercing pattern

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128

Oscillators
Objective Separate from price Best in lateral markets Includes Stochastics, MACD,
RSI, etc.
129

Applications
Overbought/Oversold:
too far too fast?

Divergence

130

Candles in Context of Overbought/Oversold

At which doji is the market more vulnerable?

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131

Divergence
Positive Divergence Negative Divergence
1 2
Price Price

1 2
Oscillator
132

1
Oscillator

East & West

Hammer and positive divergen ce


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133

East and West

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134

Candles and Oscillators

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135

Oscillators and Trend

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136

East and

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137

East and West (Bollinger Bands)

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138

Bollinger Bands
Bearish Engulfing Pattern Shooting star

Doji, bear shadows

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139

East & West

Doji warn market is tired. Confirming resistance at upper Bollinger Band

Correction ends with piercing pattern at lower Bollinger Band


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140

Dual Bearish Candle Signs & Divergence


Shooting Star Bearish i h engulfing pattern Both patterns confirmed upper Bollinger Band

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141

Fibonacci Retracements
(B) 200 38.2% (162) 50% (150)

) 61.8% (138) % ( ( ) (A) 100 $100


142

Candles & Fibonacci


Dark cloud cover Gravestone doji

Hammer Hammer confirming 50% confirming 50% retracement retracement

Bullish lli h engulfing pattern

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143

Fib. Retracements with Candles

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144

Fib. Retracements

Bull Engulf near 62%


Hammer
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145

East, West & Fibonacci


Bearish engulfing pattern confirming upper Bollinger Band

Support at 50% Fib retracem ent

Bullish Harami

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146

Candles in Context

147

Candles in Context

Morning star but ???


Chart Ch t courtesy of G t f Genesis FT i

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148

Candles in Context

Why not sell at this doji?

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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149

Candles in Context

What are a a 2 reasons not to short on this shooting star?

Prior resistance converts to new support

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150

Candles in Context

1 of 2

Did the Euro have a sense of direction?

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151

Candles in Context

2 of 2

Oversold? O ld?

Oversold?

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152

Record Sessions
Overbought / Oversold Indicator
9 record session highs 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 9 8

low for move


153

Record Session Highs


89 7 6 5 4

3
2

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154

Record Session Lows


8 9 7 1
2

1
3

6 5 4 1
2

23

1 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10

Haven t Havent made 5 a lower low and now relieved potential oversold situation so count starts again

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155

Intra-day candles ntra-

156

Intraday Candlesticks

Flexibility y

157

Flexibility with Candle Signals


close open

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158

Intraday Candlesticks

Intraday Traders:

Daily Ch t for Support D il Charts f S t or Resistance


159

Daily Chart for Support/Resistance

1 of 2

Daily Chart

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We are thinking of buying on the session at the arrow as market approaches important support near 137 on Feb. 27. Lets turn to an intraday chart to see if 137.07 there are any buy signals as the Chart courtesy of Genesis FT Euro/Yen cross nears this level 732.254.8660 USA .. (see next 160 chart).

Feb. 27

and then use daily support/resistance on intraday chart

2 of 2

Intraday Chart

Target Zone

Piercing Pattern Feb. 27


Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

137.07 137 07 from daily chart

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161

Melding Daily Support/Resistance onto Intraday Candle Chart

1 of 2

Daily Chart

Support zone on this daily chart. Now we shift to Intraday candle chart for June 5

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162

Melding Daily Support/Resistance onto Intraday Candle Chart

2 of 2

Intraday Chart Potential Target

Support Zone from Daily Chart

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163

Support / Resistance from Daily Chart ..

1 of 2

Resistance zone

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164

placed on intraday chart

2 of 2

Resistance zone From daily chart

Potential Targets
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165

Trade Intraday? Still have to monitor daily chart


Intraday

1 of 2

Why did the rally stall near 1 297 on J 1.297 June 5?

Chan ge of polarit y for buyin g


Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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166

Always know support/resistance on daily/weekly charts


Daily

2 of 2

June 5 Note important resistance here!

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167

Intraday Candlesticks
Swing Traders:

Intraday Candlestick Charts to Improve Timing

168

Why Intraday even if you are not a day trader

1 of 4

On this daily chart April 3 is a hammer testing support at a piercing pattern, but when is hammer completed? What b t i k/ Wh t about risk/reward? d?

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169

Why Intraday even if you are not a day trader

2 of 4

April 3 - 60 minute

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170

Why Intraday even if you are not a day trader

3 of 4

April 3 - 30 minute

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171

Why Intraday even if you are not a day trader

4 of 4

Buy on close? Intraday buy

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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172

Intraday for Early Reversals


Stop

Daily
Close on April 6 Short at 122.29? 122 29?

60 minute

Signal at 123.20

Or Signal at 123.05

Target

April 6

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173

Intraday Candlesticks
Swing Traders:

Intraday Charts to Confirm Support or Resistance

174

Harnessing the Extra Insights of Intraday Candles

1 of 2

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT

How can we tell if this bullish engulfing pattern on May 17 was a successful retest of support?

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175

Harnessing the Extra Insights of Intraday Candles

2 of 2

60 minute May 17

30 minute May 17

15 minute May 17

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176

Intraday Candlesticks
Intraday and Swing Traders:

Multiple Intraday Time Frames

177

Using Intraday Charts to Get Earlier Reversals

1 of 2

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

Morning Star Pattern confirmed P tt fi d July 19 at 1.2593, now lets g go to intraday . y


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Using Intraday Charts to Get Earlier Reversals

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15 minute July 19 Hamm a er comple ted at 1.2481

30 minute July 19 Morning Star completed at 1.2488

60 minute July 19 Piercing Pattern completed at 1.2488

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Never trade without knowing about news

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The water looks fine.

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The water looks fine.

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Let go of emotions

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Long Lower (Bullish) Shadows

Although this market is descending, the long lower shadows lessens some of the negative outlook

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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Non Emotional Trading

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT

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Pace trades to market environment

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Nison Trading Principle #18

Market Chameleon: As market environment changes we must adapt our market outlook p and stance

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The water looks fine.

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Be a Market Chameleon

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Adapting to the Market

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What is this pattern? What is potential 1st support?

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Adapting to the Market

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1) What is potential 1st support? 2) Any bull candle signals?

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Adapting to the Market

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potential target

How about here?

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Adapting to the Market

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potential target

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Adapting to Changing Market Conditions

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S1

S2*

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Adapting to Changing Market Conditions

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S1* Anything new?

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Adapting to Changing Market Conditions

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S1 S1*

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Being a Market Chameleon


Stop

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Short

Target g

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Being a Market Chameleon

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Target

Anything happening to change your outlook?

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Being a Market Chameleon

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Achieve PEAK Trading performance!


Information is Power! Learn how to avoid losing Forex trades

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Slide 52

Warren Buffets Rules of W B ff t R l f Money Management


Rule 1 Not to lose money Rule 2 Dont forget rule 1 Don t
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Achieve PEAK Trading performance!


Pinpoint Forex turning signals with razor sharp accuracy

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Early Reversals

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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Why Candles First for Reversals!

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Candlestick Charting Ch ti Techniques

Western Charting Techniques

The Trading Triad

Money Management

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Steve Nisons Profiting in Forex:


Using Candlesticks to Catch the Next Move

Special Bonus: Steve Ste e Nisons Forex Trading Lab


with Steve Nison, CMT St Ni President: Candlecharts.com

Tel: 732-254-8660 Fax: 732-390-6625 Web site: www candlecharts com www.candlecharts.com Email: ask@candlecharts.com

Case Study 1
What 3 signals hint of a reversal?

Pause Now- Resume when done


Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

Case Study 1 Answer


doji and bear harami bearish engulf

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

Case Study 2 Part 1

A- What are the three candle signals at 1? B-What B What else warned of the market stalling at area 1?

Pause Now- Resume when done

Case Study 2: Part 1 Answer

A-What are the three candle signals at 1? Spinning T S i i Top Doji Harami

Case Study 2: Part 1 Answer

B-What else warned to the market stalling at area 1? Resistance area

Case Study 2: Part 2

What is the candle signal at 2? Anything else to get us nervous?

Pause Now- Resume when done

Case Study 2: Part 2 Answer

What is the candle signal at 2? Shooting Star Anything else to get us nervous? Failure to hold over resistance

Case Study 2: Part 3

Is 3 a hammer?

3 Pause Now- Resume when done

Case Study 2: Part 3 Answer

Is 3 a hammer?

No, No the upper shadow is too long. But what pattern does 3 complete? Bull Harami

Case Study 2: Part 4


4

What pattern is 4?

Pause Now- Resume when done

10

Case Study 2: Part 4 Answer


4

What pattern is 4? None- trend is wrong

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Case Study 2: Part 5

What pattern is 5?

Pause Now- Resume when done

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Case Study 2: Part 5 Answer

What pattern is 5? Bearish Engulfing Pattern

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Case Study 3

4 1 2

What candle indicators were there at 1-4?

Pause Now- Resume when done

14

Case Study 3 Answer

4 1 2

1-Two shooting stars 2- Bear Harami 3-Bearish Engulfing 4-Falling off the Roof

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Case Study 4
What are the signals hinting of trouble?

Pause Now- Resume when done

16

Case Study 4 Answer


4 What are the signals hinting of trouble?

1 1234-

2 3

doji and harami bearish engulfing bearish engulfing resistance

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Case Study 4: Part 2


4

Would you sell at 3?

Pause Now- Resume when done

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Case Study 4: Part 2 Answer

Would you sell at 3?


No, i N since it is at support i t t 3 We could here

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Case Study 5
1.What reversals are here?

3. Reasons for caution here?

Fibonacci Retracements

Pause Now- Resume when done


Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

2.What pattern

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Case Study 5: Part 1 Answer


High Wave Bear shadows and small real bodies Bearish Engulfing Pattern

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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Case Study 5: Part 2 Answer

Piercing Pattern
Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

What pattern

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Case Study 5: Part 3 Answer


1- 50% Fib retracement 2- doji 3- harami 4-resistance area 4 esistance a ea Reasons for caution here? 1 3 4

Fibonacci Retracements

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

23

Case Study 6
1. Wh 1 What candle signals warn of trouble? 3. What is happening here regarding bull force?

5. Any reason for caution?

2. Why are these hammers likely t h lik l to work?

4.a)Is this a piercing pattern? b) Would you buy here?


Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

Pause Now- Resume when done

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Case Study 6: Part 1 Answer


1. Wh t 1 What candle signals warn of trouble? Two dark cloud covers

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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Case Study 6: Part 2 Answer

2. Why are these hammers likely t h lik l to work?


Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

26

Case Study 6: Part 3 Answer


3. What is happening here regarding bull force?

Spinning Tops

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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Case Study 6: Part 4 Answer


a) No, since the white candle didn t didnt get more than half into black real body b) Yes confirming support area

4.a)Is this a piercing pattern? b) Would you buy here?


Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

28

Case Study 6: Part 5 Answer

5. Any reason for caution?

1- Harami 2- Falling Resistance Line

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

29

What would you do?

Chart courtesy of Genesis FT co rtes

Pause Now- Resume when done

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What would you do? Answer

This is a bullish engulfing pattern, but lets l k t l t look at R/R


Chart courtesy of Genesis FT y

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What would you do?


1) Would you buy at the arrow? 2) Where is your stop? 3) Whe e are some target(s) Where e ome t get( )

Pause Now- Resume when done

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What would you do? Answer


1) Would you buy at the arrow? 2) Where is your stop? 3) Whe e are some target(s) Where e ome t get( ) 1: Bull Engulfing Pattern at Support 2: Bull Engulfing Pattern low

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What would you do?


Assume you are flat. What would you do? Hint- look at prior lows.

Pause Now- Resume when done

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What would you do? Answer

Crack and snap

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What would you do?: Part 1


Shooting star

Pause Now- Resume when done


Chart courtesy of Genesis FT

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What would you do? Part 1 Answer

Shooting star

Chart Ch t courtesy of G t f Genesis FT i

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What would you do? Part 2


Shooting star What pattern is this?

Pause Now- Resume when done

Chart Ch t courtesy of G t f Genesis FT i

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What would you do? Part 2 Answer

Evening Star

Do nothing due to poor R/R

Chart Ch t courtesy of G t f Genesis FT i

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What would you do?

Hint: Also look at May highs

Pause Now- Resume when done

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What would you do? Answer


R2 R1

Above R1, but at R2- so do nothing

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What would you do? What followed

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