Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing for February 25, 2013---Page 1

A brief update from this afternoon into Tuesday morning: Flash flooding and rising river levels remain concerns. A brief lull in rainfall/thunderstorms between the earlier storms today and the next round tonight. Additional 2-3 general rainfall between 2pm today through Tue morning. Flash flood watch remains in effect. Severe thunderstorm threat will remain elevated. Timing of overnight squall line will mostly be from around midnight in the far western counties to 8-9a in the east.

Additional rainfall between 2p this afternoon through Tuesday morning, not showing isolated higher amounts.

Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing for February 25, 2013---Page 2

Severe Thunderstorm Threat: A Tornado Watch will be in effect into the early evening for the Big Bend counties, east of Tallahassee. Primary threat will be from isolated damaging winds and possibly a tornado. A waterspout was reported earlier just off Franklin County which crossed the bridge to St. George Island with a severe storm earlier this afternoon. There will be a lull between the ongoing storms moving across the eastern half of the area this afternoon and the next round which should arrive as a broken squall line later tonight. Tornado and damaging wind risk will be greater with the broken squall line tonight into tomorrow morning. Most areas can expect 40-50 mph winds with higher gusts with the line. Obviously the stronger storms will be capable of much stronger winds. Tornado risk will also be a factor tonight. We can expect a tornado watch to be issued at some point overnight, if current forecast trends continue. The severe threat will likely be greatest across northern FL and far southern GA where the instability will be higher.

Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing for February 25, 2013---Page 3

General Timing of broken squall line/severe threat overnight:

Additional 2-3 rainfall and elevated risk of isolated damaging winds/tornadoes.

Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing for February 25, 2013---Page 4

Rivers: We are seeing rises on all the rivers and many will move into flood stage over the next few days, with some reaching moderate to major flood levels. As always keep track of the latest river forecasts here: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing for February 25, 2013---Page 5

Summary: ** More heavy rainfall can be expected overnight, with an additional 2-3 with higher amounts possible. ** Severe thunderstorm risk will remain elevated over the Big Bend into this evening, and across most of the region later tonight into Tuesday morning. ** Potentially significant river flooding to follow in the days ahead. If you have any questions, please give our office a call at 850-942-8833 or on our toll free line at 800-598-4562 and ask to speak to a meteorologist. We are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. You can also reach us on our Southern Linc phone at 1*77*284.