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Hazard Assessment
Hazard assessment is the basic step in community risk assessment. Hazard assessment helps us to identify the threats and understand their nature and behavior.

What is A Hazard?
A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon and/or human activity, which may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation (UNISDR, 2004).

Popular Classification

Natural

Human Induced

Combination

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Hazard

There is a potential for occurrence of an event

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Hazard Assessment
"The process of studying the nature of hazards determining its essential features (degree of severity, duration, extent, impact on the area) and their relationship".

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Some Important Points to Consider in Hazard Assessment Look at scientific and statistical data Historical record Approach other knowledgeable sources/people Understand the various intensities of the same hazard Hazard mapping

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Possible Reasons for New Hazards

Natural - changes in the pattern of weather leading to new forms of drought and flooding. Economic - Fluctuations in the value of currency affecting livelihoods, trade related policy changes.

Social and political trends- Changes in policies, Relocations of people, Conflicts.

Industrial hazards- chemical accidents, poisoning. New forms of epidemics- Bird Flu, AIDS, Hepatitis B & C

Factors to Consider in Understanding the Nature & Behavior of Hazards 01. One Hazard Causing a Secondary Hazard
In case of Earthquake, which can bring further hazards like Building collapse Dam failure Fire Hazardous material spill Interruption of power/water supply/ communication/transportation/ waste disposal Landslide Soil liquefaction Tsunami

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Flood: Epidemics, snake bite, dam Failure Drought: Epidemics, Famine

Civil war: Refugees & Displaced persons

Landslide: Epidemics, Temporary damming Pollution: Diseases

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2. Origin: The factor/s which create or result in a hazard. Disasters

experienced in the past.

3. Force which can damage:

The power of the hazard e.g. intensity of the cyclone; magnitude of the earthquake; wind, water (rain, flood, overflow, flash flood , epidemic) land (slides, deposits by river, mudflow) fire (forest fire, settlement fire), seismic (earthquake, tsunami, liquefaction), conflicts (civil war, insurgency, other actions leading to displacement and refugees), industrial/technological (pollution, radio-activity, explosions), others.

4. Speed of onset:
Rapidity of arrival and impact (rapid and slow-onset). We can distinguish between hazards that occur without almost any warning (earthquake), and hazards that can be predicted 3 to 4 days in advance (cyclone) to very slow-onset hazards like drought and famine.

5. Frequency:
How often does hazard occur -seasonally, yearly, once every 10 years, once in a lifetime, etc.

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6. Forewarning: time gap between warning signs and impact 7. Warning signs and signals: Rainfall duration, intensity, quantity, speed of wind, temperature, movement of animals, insects and birds etc. in case of floods.

8. Period of Occurrence or When : Does hazard occur at a particular time of the year (wet or dry season; in November to December)
9. Duration: How long is hazard felt (earthquake and aftershocks; days/week/months that area is flooded; length of period of military operations)

Assessment Approaches
Quantitative Approach
Use mathematical functions with numerical values Each variable will describe the relationship among parameters that characterize the phenomena

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Example of Quantitative Approach

Table No 02
Hazard Assesment

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Required Data Some Quantitative or Spatial Hazard Data in Various Forms

Geological hazard maps showing fault lines or unstable slopes liable to cause landslides Hydrological maps of flood-prone areas Wind, rainfall and sea-surface temperature data Recording of seismic activity from monitoring stations Local rainfall and flood level records

Qualitative Approach Use qualitative descriptions (such as low, medium or high) instead of numerical values Hazard Assessment Matrix Hazard map Seasonal calendar Historical profile

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Hazard Matrix or Table

Hazard Type Origin/ Cause Warning Signs Forewarning Force Speed of Onset Frequency Period of Occurrenc e(When) Duration

Flood

1.Torrential RF 2. Seasonal Rainfall 3. Storm

5 days continuou s heavy rain ,

Relatively short but can vary from a few hours (overmovemen night) to a t of ants few days

Volume of water

Can often be predicted a few days in advance

Once or 2 times/ year

Monsoon season

7 days

4. Dam Burst

Hazard Map

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Ranking

Seasonal Calendar

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Seasonal Calendar

Historical Profile

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Hazard Assessment Modeling

Some Guidelines in Hazard Assessment

Look at scientific and statistical data Country Disaster Profile, EM-DAT: www.em-dat.net Take action to translate scientific data into practical information Integrate local knowledge with scientific and technical information Approach knowledgeable sources/people Understand the various intensities of the same hazard

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Look out for secondary hazards Focus on new or emerging hazards Be aware of local threats: the increasing number of small scale, localized hazards which do not hit the headlines or appear in disaster statistics. Cumulatively, these can present a more serious problem than a catastrophic event. For example, in densely populated shanty towns, regular fires, floods, landslides, and epidemics are increasingly common events. Bring available maps to facilitate drawing of hazard maps Specifying the nature and behavior of the hazard is specifically important in designing early warning system, especially at the local and community

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Scoring Assistance for Table No 02

1. Likelihood Of Event. a. None. A disaster event is not likely to occur. b. Rare. A disaster event occurs less often than once every 30 years (e.g. once every 50 years). c. Occasional. A disaster event occurs less often than once every 5 years, but more often than once every 30 years (e.g., once every 12 years). d. Frequent. A disaster event occurs more often than once every 5 years (e.g., once every 2 years).

2. Impact On Population.
a. No Impact (0). No impact means that there is little or no likelihood of this hazard affecting the community or, if it occurs, there would be a minimal affect on the Medical Center. b. Limited (1). Limited impact means that a disaster occurrence generally involves a serious threat to a moderate number of people in the community. There may be a few deaths and injuries and only minor population dislocations from such an occurrence (e.g., a typical avalanche or landslide).

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c. Substantial (2). Substantial impact means that a disaster occurrence affects a significant number of people, and may involve some loss of life, injuries and possibly a sizable dislocation of population. Some occurrences of transportation accidents, urban fires, and floods fall into this category. d. Major (3). Major impact means a disaster occurrence affects a widespread area of the community or a concentrated area with severe effects. It may result in a large number of deaths and injuries and involve a massive evacuation and/or shelter operation. Large-scale earthquakes, tornadoes, heavy flooding, and hurricanes fall into this category.

3. Impact On Property.
a. No Impact (0). No impact means there is little or no likelihood of this hazard affecting the community or, if it occurs, damage to public and private property would be minimal. b. Limited (1). Limited impact means that a disaster occurrence generally involves only light damage to public or private property. Local resources would be adequate to repair or replace the damaged property. c. Substantial (2). Substantial impact means that a disaster occurrence results in moderate damage over a widespread or concentrated area. Damage to public and private property may exceed local resources to Repair or replace. d. Major (3). Major impact means that a disaster occurrence results in heavy damage to public and private property over a widespread area or a concentrated area with severe effects. The magnitude of the disaster may result in a Government Declaration of a Major Disaster or Emergency .

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