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Jaiprakash Associates
CMP: Rs.73 Target: Rs. 110
Diversified
— We initiate a BUY with a one year target of 114. At CMP of Rs 73, the stock is trading at
14x TTM EPS of Rs 5.2 and trailing P/BV of 2. Stock is trading at, trailing P/BV of 2,
forward P/E Ratio 9 for (FY10E) and 6 for (FY11E). We recommend the investors to BUY
Sovid Gupta the stock, with our 12 month price target of Rs 110 providing an upside potential of
52%.
Equity Analyst: Fairwealth Securities
Private. Ltd. Earnings for 2009 are expected to show a modest increase
Strong Q3 09 numbers should allay much of the fears of the investors about company’s
future valuations and Earnings potential.
Outlook:
Priced on Feb’12, 2009
Our Outlook for the stock remains immensely positive considering company’s huge order
±% potential 52%
book contributing to assured revenues over next 6 years, and huge land bank value which
Target set on 12 Feb’09
will unlock in coming years.
Company is going to witness exponential growth in revenues from 4 sectors. i.e. Cement
(Capacities to triple), Construction(Revenue Growth at 40% CAGR over next 3 years), Real
Estate and Hotels( We expect EBITDA to increase from 8% in Q3 to around 30% in 3
Market Data years), and Power(3000 MW capacity addition over next 6 years expected)
Beta 1.75
12M hi/lo 510 / 64
Restructuring Highlights:
Market cap, INR Millions 86350
Shares in issue (mn.) 1,173.8 Jaiprakash Associates (JPA) under flagship of Jaypee Group has decided to acquire four
Companies and merged into JPA. The companies are as under:-
Reuters JAIA.BO
Bloomberg JPA: IN • Jaypee Hotels Ltd (JPH)
• Jaypee Cements Ltd (JPC)
• Gujarat Anjan Cements Ltd (GAC)
• Jaiprakash Enterprises Ltd (JEL)
As per the scheme of the merger, the swap ratio will be 1:1 for JHL, 1:10 for JCL, 3:1 for
Share Holding Pattern JEL, and 1:11 for GACL. Since the Company is planning to transfer the cross-holding to a
Promoters 44.44% trust instead of cancelling it, it is likely to issue 220 million new shares, which will result in
MF’s the dilution of earnings.
13.0%
FII 21.7% After acquisition of four companies by JPA as stated herein above, 22.04 crore shares of
Others 20.9% JPA of Rs.44.08 crores would be issued. As a result equity dilution will rise by 18.77% from
Rs. 234.76 crores to Rs.278.84 crores.
Of 22.04 crore new shares of JPA being issued, 10.60 crore shares would get parked in
Trust, while 11.44 crore shares would get issued to non-JPA shareholders.
Our take on this step is positive as it will help company in raising more funds as the
company has huge line up of projects. Company definitely needs to raise Equity and bring
down Debt Equity levels to a more suitable level of 2:1.
Achievements (FY07-FY08):
Industry Potential
Company gets all its revenues from Sunrise sectors like Infrastructure, Real Estate and
Power. Although marred by recession country is still likely to witness more than 6% growth
over next 10 years, which will add around 1 trillion dollars to Indian GDP.
Installed capacity of the cement industry is expected to increase to 219 MTPA by financial
year 2009 from 198.62 MTPA in the financial year 2008. It will further go up to 241 MTPA
by the financial year 2010, according to an ICRA Industry Monitor report.
We expect strong showing by cement companies although with lower realizations,
continuous growth in Infrastructure as 4 lane and above highway development remains a
priority sector for both UPA and NDA governments. And hydel power development remains
another major priority considering India’s potential of 150,000 MW of Hydel capacity and
efforts to keep Thermal to Hydel ratio of 60:40.
Cement Division:
The cement segment contributes around 40% to the standalone net revenues of
the Company. Jaiprakash Associates has a total installed capacity of 11.5 MTPA
(FY08), and as per the management, more than 4 MTPA of new capacity is expected to
be commissioned in the next 2–3 months..The cement revenue was driven by volume
growth of 15% on account of commissioning of 2 MTPA plant in MP and ramp up at
earlier commissioned capacities in Uttar Pradesh and a grinding unit at Haryana. With
this addition of new capacity the total production capacity will be ~18 MMTPA.
Company plans to raise capacities to up to 25 MTPA by 2010 and to further
expand it to 30 MTPA by 2011. Company is developing its captive power units in most
of the cement plants to reduce costs. JAL has so far commissioned captive thermal
power plants with an aggregate capacity of 88.50 MW.
Company has also procured coal blocks in Madhya Pradesh to meet its captive power
requirement for future capacity expansion in Cement division.
.
Engineering and Construction Division:
Given the robust growth of the Indian economy, investment in the roads and bridges
sector, during the Eleventh Plan is projected at US$ 78.5 billion over the five-year
period starting from 2007-08.
However the same fell by a massive 1300 bps Q-o-Q due to increased share of
revenues from Taj Expressway where margins are lower compared to complex
construction projects.
Company also got rights to develop part of 1047 KM 8 lane Ganga Express way, which
will give company to develop part of 30000 acres total entailed for development.
Energy Segment:
JAL is developing India's largest BOO Hydro power project --- the 1,000 MW Karcham
Company has assured land development Wantoo project in Himachal Pradesh, which is expected to be commissioned by 2011.
rights for 37 million square feet in Noida, This will increase the Company’s hydro power operating assets to 1,700 MW, Company
Greater Noida, along with other places plans to scale up its total Hydel Power capacity under BOOT model to up to 5000
between Agra and Greater Noida. Separate MW(2500 MW in Arunachal Pradesh and 700 MW in Meghalaya, along with 1700
independent valuations have valued these mentioned already).
lands at over 2 billion USD. This does not
include additional land development right Hospitality:
company will earn through Ganga Expressway
project. Company operates 3 five star properties and also manages 2 other properties which
are owned by the company. During the yaer 2007-08 the compnany achieved the
turnover of Rs. 172.91 Crores as compared to Rs. 130.80 Crores in previous year
registering the growth of 32%. The Net profit for the year was registered at Rs. 17.54
Crores vis-a-vis Rs. 13.64 Crores in previous year.
Future Estimates
DuPont Analysis
EBIT margins have increased over last 3
years, thanks to higher realisation in Year End 200803 200703 200603
Cement and Construction business. a.OPM % 29 28 22
Company’s Debt has increased over last 3 b. EBIT Margin % 24 23 17
years, however Interest costs on Debt and c. Turnover / Assets 0.35 0.45 0.49
total Interest dilution have gone down due
to cheap, dollar and yen funding company d.ROA % (d=b*c) 8 10 8
availed during good times. e. Interest Cost % 4.59 5.34 6.92
f. Debt / Assets 0.66 0.66 0.61
Company’s interest cost stayed to a low of g. Interest Dilution % (g=e*f) 3.0 3.5 4.2
4.6% for 2008.
h.ROA after Interest %(h=d-g) 5.4 6.8 4.1
D/E ratio of 2.8 is expected for FY11 and
interest cost of around 8%, company’s
Interest dilution will rise to 5.8% and i. Assets / Shareholder Funds 2.98 2.91 2.57
ROA after at same margins and j.ROE before other Inc% (j=h*i) 15 20 10
turnover will fall to around 4%. k. Other Inc/Shareholders fund
7 3 20
%
l. RONW after Other % (l=j+k) 22 24 30
m. Tax Rate % 27 33 16
n.ROE after Tax% (n=l-
16 16 25
(l*m/100)
o. Book Value 33.22 116.95 99.77
p. Earnings Per Share (p=n*o) 5.35 18.67 25.05*
Source: Capital Line
Key Risks:
Cement:
• Highly leveraged balance sheet to adversely affect funding.
Downward margin pressure on
On a consolidated basis company had Debt to Equity Ratio of 2.3 in FY08, which is
account of additional capacities and
lower price realisations.
expected to reach to a high of 2.8 by FY10. Also most of the funds to be raised further
would be at higher interest rates from Indian Banks/ Institutions.
Construction: However much of the company’s Debt (around 1600 crores), maturing in 2012 is in
form of convertible Debenture and Warrants, convertible at Rs. 270, which will lower
Lower margins pressure on account company’s Debt Equity Ratio. We do not see share prices rising to those levels before
of low margins in highway projects H2 2010.
Real Estate segment had high margins of 41%, segmental revenues were mere 8%, and
going forward increase in segmental revenues will increase overall profitability for the
business.
Construction:
Annexure:
1. Income Statement:
Company has not shown any significant Sales and Earnings jump up to 2008, with top line showing 11% CAGR.
Bottom line has risen exponentially at a rate of 56% compounded annually.
3. Balance Sheet:
Disclaimer
This publication has been prepared solely for information purpose and does not constitute a solicitation to any person to buy or sell a security. While
the information contained therein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, investors are advised to satisfy themselves before making
any investments. Fairwealth Securities Pvt Ltd., does not bear any responsibility for the authentication of the information contained in
the reports and consequently, is not liable for any decisions taken based on the same. Further, Fairwealth Research Reports only provide information
updates and analysis. All opinion for buying and selling are available to investors when they are registered clients of Fairwealth Investment Advisory
Services. As a matter of practice, Fairwealth refrains from publishing any individual names with its reports. As per SEBI requirements it is stated that,
Fairwealth Sec Pvt Ltd., and/or individuals thereof may have positions in securities referred herein and may make purchases or sale
Thereof while this report is in circulation.