DAILY I FOREX REPORT

20TH FEBRUARY 2013

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HEADLINES

Yen Rises On Government Comments About BoJ Policy And Forex Euro May Fall As German ZEW Disappoints, Yen Gains On BOJ

TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3329 tgs 1.3309/1.3289 sl 1.3360

Forex: G20 Gives Tacit Approval For USD/JPY Rise But Will It Climb? Euro Rises Temporarily on Improved German Investor Confidence
German expectations for economic growth is at a near 3-year high in February according to the ZEW survey, showing positive sentiments for the third straight month. The ZEW survey was for economic sentiment was reported at 48.2, better than the expected 35.0 survey result, and up from 31.5 in January. However, the ZEW survey for the current situation declined to 5.2, worse than the expected 9.0 and lower than last months 7.1 survey result.

SELL USDJPY BELOW 93.36 tgt 93.22/93.08 SL 93.56

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.5504 tgt 1.5524/1.5544 SL 1.5484

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3349 HIGH: 1.3373 LOW: 1.3329 CLOSE: 1.3340

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND : BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>. 0000(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 48(BEARISH SIGNAL)

 HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 93.61 HIGH: 93.92 LOW: 93.36 CLOSE: 93.51

USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => 0.04( BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>39(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5477 HIGH: 1.5504 LOW: 1.5461 CLOSE: 1.5489

GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD => .-0002( BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 55(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8624 HIGH: 0.8632 LOW: 0.8600 CLOSE: 0.8611

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0003(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>43(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 80.6440 HIGH: 80.6790 LOW: 80.5130 CLOSE: 80.6370

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>0.071(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>53(BULLISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALENDER

Date
Sun Feb 17 Mon Feb 18

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

21:30

NZD Performance Services Index (JAN) CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (JAN)

Low

52.6

51.5

Medium

-4.2%

-4.5%

00:01

GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (FEB) GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (FEB) AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JAN) AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (JAN) JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JAN F) EUR Bank of Spain Publishes Bad Loans Data (Dec) EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (DEC) EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (DEC) EUR EU President Van Rompuy Speaks to Parliament on Proposed Budget EUR ECB's Draghi Speaks at EU Parliament JPY BOJ Minutes for Meeting on Jan. 21-22 AUD RBA Policy Meeting - February Minutes JPY Leading Index (DEC F) JPY Coincident Index (DEC F) JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (JAN) JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (JAN) EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations (JAN) EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (FEB) EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (FEB)

Medium

1.1%

2.4%

00:01

Low

2.8%

0.2%

00:30

Low

10.8%

17.9%

00:30

Low

-2.4%

2.2%

06:00

Medium

-26.4%

-26.1%

09:00

Medium

10.44%

11.38%

09:00

Low

13.9B

15.9B

09:00

Low

27.0B

20.8B

13:00

High

14:30

High

23:50
Tue Feb 19

High

00:30

High

05:00

Medium

93.4

05:00

Low

92.7

05:30

Low

-1.1%

05:30

Low

-1.3%

07:00

Low

-16.3%

10:00

High

35

31.5

10:00

Medium

7.1

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC) EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (DEC) CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (DEC) CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (DEC) USD NAHB Housing Market Index (FEB) NZD Producer PricesOutputs (QoQ) (4Q) NZD Producer PricesInputs (QoQ) (4Q) AUD Conference Board Leading Index (DEC) AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (DEC) JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (JAN) JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (JAN) JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (JAN) JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (JAN) USD Mortgage Delinquencies (4Q) USD MBA Mortgage Foreclosures (4Q)

Medium

31.2

10:00

Low

-4.7%

10:00

Low

-0.4%

13:30

Low

-0.4%

0.7%

13:30

Low

6.75B

5.62B

15:00

Low

48

47

21:45

Low

-0.9%

21:45

Low

-1.0%

23:00

Medium

-0.2%

23:30

Low

0.6%

23:50

Medium

-1384.0B

-641.5B

23:50

Low

2.1

1.9

23:50

Low

5.6

-5.8

23:50
Wed Feb 20

Low

-586.7B

-800.7B

Low

7.4%

Low

4.1%

00:30

AUD Wage Cost Index (QoQ) (4Q) AUD Wage Cost Index (YoY) (4Q) JPY Bank Of Japan Board Member Morimoto Speaks in Kochi JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (DEC) EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN F)

Low

0.8%

0.7%

00:30

Low

3.4%

3.7%

01:30

Low

04:30

Medium

1.6%

-0.3%

07:00

High

1.7%

1.7%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (JAN F) EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (JAN) EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN F) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN F) JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JAN) EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (JAN) GBP Jobless Claims Change (JAN) GBP Bank of England Releases Monetary Policy Committee Minutes GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (DEC) GBP Employment Change (3M/3M) (DEC) GBP Claimant Count Rate (JAN) GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (DEC) GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/YoY) (DEC) CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (FEB) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 15) USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN) USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN) USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JAN) USD Housing Starts (MoM) (JAN) USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (JAN) USD Housing Starts (JAN)

High

1.9%

1.9%

07:00

Medium

1.2%

1.5%

07:00

Medium

-0.5%

-0.5%

07:00

Medium

-0.7%

-0.7%

07:00

Low

-2.0%

07:00

Low

0.3%

-0.3%

09:30

High

-5.5K

-12.1K

09:30

High

09:30

Medium

7.7%

7.7%

09:30

Medium

117K

90K

09:30

Medium

4.8%

4.8%

09:30

Medium

1.4%

1.5%

09:30

Low

1.3%

1.4%

10:00

Medium

-6.9

12:00

Low

-6.4%

13:30

Medium

1.5%

1.3%

13:30

Medium

0.4%

-0.3%

13:30

Medium

1.7%

2.0%

13:30

Medium

-3.6%

12.1%

13:30

Low

0.2%

0.1%

13:30

Low

920K

954K

13:30

USD Building Permits (MoM) (JAN) USD Building Permits (JAN) CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index (JAN) CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (JAN) CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (FEB A) USD Fed Releases Minutes from Jan 29-30 FOMC Meeting NZD ANZ NZ Job Ads (MoM) (JAN) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (FEB 15) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (FEB 15) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (FEB 15) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (FEB 15) AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (JAN) CNY MNI February Flash Business Sentiment Indicator CNY Conference Board China January Leading Economic Index JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (JAN) CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (JAN) CHF Imports (MoM) (JAN) CHF Exports (MoM) (JAN) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB P) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB P)

Low

1.2%

1.0%

13:30

Low

920K

909K

14:00

Low

153.45

14:00

Low

3.1%

14:00

Low

-0.2%

-0.4%

15:00

Medium

-23.2

-23.9

19:00

High

21:00

Low

0.4%

23:50

Low

-228.6B

23:50

Low

-645.0B

23:50

Low

212.9B

23:50

Low

-261.6B

Thu Feb 21

00:30

Low

752M

01:35

Low

02:00

Low

05:00

Low

-1.5%

07:00

Medium

1.70B

1.00B

07:00

Low

5.5%

07:00

Low

0.3%

-1.5%

08:00

Low

44.4

43.6

08:00

Low

43.8

42.9

08:00

CHF Real Estate Index Family Homes (4Q) CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JAN) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB A) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (FEB A) GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (JAN) GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (JAN) GBP PSNB ex Interventions (JAN) GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (FEB) GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (FEB) USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN) USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JAN) USD Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 16) USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN) USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (JAN) USD Continuing Claims (FEB 9) USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (JAN) USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (JAN) USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (FEB)

Low

413.1

08:00

Low

9.8%

08:30

Medium

55.5

55.7

08:30

Medium

50.5

49.8

09:00

Medium

49

48.6

09:00

Medium

48.5

47.9

09:00

Medium

49

48.6

09:30

Medium

-9.5B

13.2B

09:30

Medium

-35.0B

1.3B

09:30

Medium

-8.7B

15.4B

11:00

Low

15

21

11:00

Low

-15

-20

13:30

High

1.6%

1.7%

13:30

High

1.8%

1.9%

13:30

Medium

355K

341K

13:30

Medium

0.1%

0.0%

13:30

Medium

0.2%

0.1%

13:30

Low

3150K

3114K

13:30

Low

230.304

229.601

13:30

Low

231.938

231.475

13:58

Medium

55.5

15:00

USD Philadelphia Fed. (FEB) USD Leading Indicators (JAN) USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JAN) USD Existing Home Sales (JAN) USD API Monthly Statistical Report USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (FEB 15) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (FEB 15) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 15) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (FEB 15) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (FEB 15) USD Fed's Bullard Speaks About Monetary Policy in New York USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in New York CNY China January Property Prices NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (JAN) NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (JAN) USD Fed's Fisher Speaks on Economy in Dallas () EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F) EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q F) EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (4Q F) EUR German Private Consumption (4Q) EUR German Imports (4Q)

Medium

-5.8

15:00

Medium

0.2%

0.5%

15:00

Medium

-0.8%

-1.0%

15:00

Low

4.90M

4.94M

15:00

Low

15:30

Low

-157

16:00

Low

-3677K

16:00

Low

560K

16:00

Low

-1118K

16:00

Low

-803K

17:30

Low

18:00
Fri Feb 22

Low

01:30

Medium

02:00

Medium

1.0%

02:00

Medium

4.6%

02:15

Low

07:00

High

0.4%

0.4%

07:00

High

-0.6%

-0.6%

07:00

High

0.1%

0.1%

07:00

Low

0.1%

0.3%

07:00

Low

-1.0%

1.0%

07:00

EUR German Government Spending (4Q) EUR German Exports (4Q) EUR German Domestic Demand (4Q) EUR German Construction Investment (4Q) EUR German Capital Investment (4Q) EUR German IFO Current Assessment (FEB) EUR German IFO Business Climate (FEB) EUR German IFO Expectations (FEB) EUR EU Issues Winter Economic Forecasts in Brussels CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN) CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JAN) CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC) CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN) CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (JAN) CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (DEC) CAD Core CPI s.a. (MoM) (JAN) CAD Consumer Price Index s.a. (MoM) (JAN) CAD Consumer Price Index (JAN) USD Fed's Powell, Rosengren Speak in New York USD Fed's Tarullo Speaks on Regulation in New York

Low

0.2%

0.4%

07:00

Low

-2.0%

1.4%

07:00

Low

-0.1%

0.0%

07:00

Low

-0.8%

1.5%

07:00

Low

-1.3%

0.2%

09:00

Medium

108.5

108

09:00

Medium

104.9

104.2

09:00

Medium

101.4

100.5

10:00

Medium

13:30

High

0.7%

0.8%

13:30

High

1.1%

1.1%

13:30

Medium

-0.4%

0.2%

13:30

Medium

0.2%

-0.6%

13:30

Medium

0.2%

-0.6%

13:30

Low

0.1%

-0.3%

13:30

Low

0.1%

13:30

Low

-0.1%

13:30

Low

121.2

15:15

Low

23:30

Low

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