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La dmarche gntique
La mthode gntique, cherche la gense des vnements, cest--dire les antcdents.
Comme lhistoire, la gntique rpond la question quand ? Mais ses rponses au pourquoi et
au comment ont un autre sens. Elles impliquent une histoire, mais ce nest pas lhistoire
succession. Cette mthode consiste en effet pour nous, observer les faits se rapportant au
dveloppement, la conscience sociale et culturelle, au pouvoir alimentaire, non pas
seulement en les dnombrant, mais en appliquant les principes de la critique historique ou de
la statistique ; systmatiser ces faits, cest--dire dmler sous des changements apparents
des identits fondamentales du dveloppement, de la conscience sociale et culturelle, du
pouvoir alimentaire.
La dmarche systmique
La systmique - du grec systema , ensemble organis - est une mthode
scientifique qui applique la thorie systmique comme moyen de comprendre un systme.
L. von Bertalanffy (2002) en dfinissant les systmes comme des ensembles d'lments en
interaction , suggrait implicitement le systmisme comme une approche globale, une
vision holistique. Ainsi le systmisme nous permet d'aborder des sujets complexes qui taient
rfractaires l'approche parcellaire. Le recours au systmisme nous a permis donc de mettre
en vidence les relations en tant quensembles organiss que tissent les questions de
dveloppement, de conscience sociale et culturelle, de pouvoir alimentaire.
Les deux dmarches prcdentes nous servions dans lanalyse, linterprtation et
discussion de rsultats ; en somme le contrle des hypothse formules.
Test dhypothses : (H1 et H2)
Nous allons par les analyses gntique et systmique examiner dabord si en Cte
divoire, la conscience sociale est dinfluence traditionnelle et ensuite voir si cette influence
traditionnelle stant aussi au systme alimentaire.
Une conscience sociale et culturelle dinfluences traditionnelle
Karl Marx (1859) disaient que Dans la production sociale de leur existence, les
hommes nouent des rapports dtermins, ncessaires, indpendants de leur volont ; ces
rapports de production correspondent un degr donn du dveloppement de leurs forces
productives matrielles. L'ensemble de ces rapports forme ; la structure conomique de la
socit, la fondation relle sur laquelle s'lve un difice juridique et politique, et quoi
rpondent des formes dtermines de la conscience sociale. Le mode de production de la vie
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matrielle domine en gnral le dveloppement de la vie sociale, politique et intellectuelle.
Ce n'est pas la conscience des hommes qui dtermine leur existence, c'est au contraire leur
existence sociale qui dtermine leur conscience. A un certain degr de leur dveloppement,
les forces productives matrielles de la socit entrent en collision avec les rapports de
production existants, ou avec les rapports de proprit au sein desquels elles s'taient mues
jusqu'alors, et qui n'en sont que l'expression juridique. Hier encore formes de dveloppement
des forces productives, ces conditions se changent en de lourdes entraves. Alors commence
une re de rvolution sociale. Le changement dans les fondations conomiques s'accompagne
d'un bouleversement plus ou moins rapide dans tout cet norme difice. Quand on considre
ce bouleversement il faut toujours distinguer deux ordres de choses. Il y a le bouleversement
matriel des conditions de production conomique. On doit le constater dans l'esprit de
rigueur des sciences naturelles. Mais il y a aussi les formes juridiques, politiques, religieuses,
artistiques, philosophiques, bref les formes idologiques, dans lesquelles les hommes
prennent conscience de ce conflit et le poussent jusqu'au bout. Cette assertion marxienne
laisse entrevoir les rapports quil peut exister, dune part entre le mode de production et le
dveloppement, et dautre part entre le dveloppement et la conscience sociale.
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Mise en rapport des consciences sociales et culturelles face aux dveloppement
Entendu comme des rapports de domination et de subornation entre des acteurs
sociaux (des individus, des groupes sociaux ou classes sociales) dans lappropriation des
vivres, le pouvoir alimentaire implique des rapports aux modes de production et au
dveloppement. Cela dautant plus que le pouvoir alimentaire sobserve, en dfinitive,
comme le fait dutiliser la fourniture d'aliment pour faire pression sur un partenaire ou un
adversaire(Bertrand J.P., 1997). Le pouvoir alimentaire devient ainsi un concept qui permet
de nous frayer une perspective pertinente danalyse socio-anthropologique du dveloppement
mise en rapport avec la conscience sociale ou la conscience collective selon lexpression
dEmile Durkheim [Emile Durkheim (1893)]
Le concept de conscience collective, qui renvoie la conception dune socit
comparable un tre psychique [Emile Durkheim (1893)] existant en dehors des
individus et dot de sa propre conscience, sinscrit dans les proccupations du sociologue
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mile Durkheim face aux transformations du lien social. Durkheim observe que la
conscience collective est lune des caractristiques des socits traditionnelles, o la
solidarit est de type mcanique , [Emile Durkheim (1893)] cest--dire que les pratiques,
les valeurs et les croyances y sont trs peu diffrencies comme dans le cas de lethnie.
La notion anthropologique, sociologique et mme dmographique d'ethnie dont les
racines remontent aux matrices familiales, lignagres, claniques ou tribales, est au cur de la
conscience sociale et culturelle en Cte dIvoire. Pour saisir le sens de ces diffrentes units,
il convient d'avoir constamment prsent l'esprit que dans une socit de type lignager
comme de type centralis monarchique, tout s'articule autour de la notion de descendance
[Claude Lvi-Strauss (1967)].
Chaque groupe compte en fait des entits qui lui ont t imposes par les impratifs
particuliers de son histoire; aussi, le canevas prsent ici, ne fournit-il qu'un cadre de
rfrence, la notion de descendance, de la parent. [Claude Lvi-Strauss (1967)].
Le cadre gographique et l'appartenance tel ou tel grand groupement ethnique permet
de dfinir (indpendamment de son contenu exact) nanmoins le niveau de rfrence
indispensable une analyse plus fine de l'organisation sociale traditionnelle ivoirienne dont
se trouve en grande en partie tributaire la Cte dIvoire moderne. Par-del l'uniformit de la
culture au sein des grands groupes nest pas toujours vrifie. Lon hsite souvent de parler
de conscience collective [Emile Durkheim (1893)] au singulier dans ce pays. En effet des
consciences sociales [Karl Marx (1859)] et culturelle particulires, spcifiques, htroclites,
dinfluence socioculturel, consciences tantt juxtaposes ou en interconnexion, tantt en
cohsion sociale ou antagonistes [Bruno Losch, Sandrine Mespl-Somps, Jean-Pierre
Chauveau et Bernard Contamin (2003)] souvent disparates ou diffuse, cheval entre la
tradition et la modernit, prises dans un jeu dialectique de dconstruction et de reconstruction
articulent lorganisation socio-conomique de la Cte divoire. Les formes que prennent les
agencements de la vie en socit, d'une rgion l'autre, d'un groupement ethnique l'autre,
ncessitent, en effet, une approche plus nuance et implique surtout une analyse pertinente
des indicateurs et des vecteurs de dveloppement comme le pouvoir alimentaire.
En outre, il est noter que les consciences sociales [Karl Marx (1859)] et culturelles
particulires, manation des groupes ethniques en Cte dIvoire, tardent, rsistent et refusent
parfois de fusionner en conscience homogne. Nous observons donc, en Cte dIvoire, avec
la clart de lvidence, lexistence de conscience sociale htrogne dinfluence traditionnelle
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avec par endroit des points douverture vers la modernit et le changement, effritant,
miettant, parcellisant ainsi les possibilits inoues de constitution, de raffermissement et de
bonification du pouvoir socio-conomique en gnral et de ses expressions spcifiques
comme le pouvoir alimentaire. En effet, face aux potentialits indniables en matire de terre
cultivable, de ressources halieutiques et pastorales, les groupes ethniques peuplant la Cte
dIvoire impriment une dynamique de choix qui induit un ordre de prfrences alimentaires.
Ces matrices ethniques vont ds lors emprunter des parcours alimentaires diffrents mme
sils sentrecroisent par moment. En consquence, plutt quune adhsion populaire aux
filires traditionnelles de production vivrire (les crales, les tubercules, les racines, les
fruits et les marachers) il aura une adhsion slective, culturelle et rgionale. Comme
corollaire, la production alimentaire savre insuffisante pour lensemble de la population. La
Cte divoire devra, travers limportation, constamment demeurer sous linfluence de
pouvoirs alimentaires des lignes internationales dapprovisionnement et de distribution des
vivres.
Un systeme alimentaire dinfluence traditionnelle
La problmatique du dveloppement en Cte divoire articule le problme de
laccessibilit alimentaire port par le systme alimentaire. Il savre ncessaire den dfinir
les composantes pour en valuer les potentialits.
Nous observons que la Cte dIvoire est tributaire de son anthropologie comme
champ dexpression des matrices ethniques qui la composent. Il sagit de matrices ethniques
en tant quentits groupales organises dcomposables en tribus, clans, lignages et familles. Il
sagit aussi de matrices ethniques en tant que socles institutionnelles des traditions et des
cultures ivoiriennes structures en organisations sociales (mariages, ftes, funrailles) en
organisations conomiques (travail agricole, chasse, cueillette, artisanat) en organisations
politiques (dmocraties villageoises, monarchie, caste) en organisations religieuses
(animisme croyance centrale qui dispute lespace religieux avec le christianisme, lislam,
dautres religions africaines et trangres).
Il sagit enfin de matrices ethniques en tant que base angulaire des consciences
collectives (sentiment dunit ou de diffrence, tradition alimentaire ou vestimentaire,
rfrence en matire de justice, dquit, de travail, de productivit, de performance, de
russite, de grandeurs, de sant, de bien tre, de prosprit, de pouvoir, dautorit, de
responsabilit, de gestion, desthtique, dart) des reprsentations socioculturelles
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(reprsentations des valeurs morales, conomiques, politiques et religieuses). Ces matrices
ethniques orientent les choix alimentaires et impriment le schma dexploitation agricole,
pastorale et halieutique. En effet, les habitudes alimentaires correspondent une logique de
choix li, dans un premier temps, des considrations culturelles et rgionales.
Les filires traditionnelles de production vivrire sont ventiles entre les crales (mil,
sorgho, mas), les tubercules et les racines (manioc, igname, patate douce), les fruits (banane,
mangue, papaye) et les divers (graine du palmier, noix de coco et condiments) ; et les
productions destines principalement l'exportation savoir la banane, lananas (FAO,
2004). Dans les rgions rurales du nord (savane) prdominent les repas base de mil, de
mas, de fonio, de sorgho et d'igname. Les plats sont souvent constitus d'une bouillie ou pte
(th) accompagne d'une sauce compose de lgumineuses (arachides, haricots) et de feuilles.
Le lait frais de vache et quelques fruits (papayes, citrons, mangues) sont aussi consomms en
zone de savane.
Au sud (fort) les fculents sont les aliments de base: igname, banane plantain, taro.
Dans le centre, l'igname et les bananes piles, sont mlanges au manioc sous forme de pte
trs paisse (foutou). Plus au sud, le manioc est parfois ferment (semoule de manioc ou
attiek). Les sauces d'accompagnement sont base d'huile de palme et de lgumes, avec de la
viande ou du poisson. Nous assistons une persistance des strotypes alimentaires.
Les Malink (nord) prfrent le mas dont la farine sert la prparation du th, une
sorte de bouillie trs paisse ou pte. On constate alors que ligname, le manioc et la banane
sont surtout utiliss dans la cuisine des Akan (centre, est, et sud) tandis quen plus du manioc
et de la banane plantain, les Krou (centre-ouest, sud-ouest, ouest) se nourrissent de beaucoup
de riz. La civilisation Krou par exemple est une civilisation de clairire. En effet les Krou
pratiquaient la culture itinrante sur brlis, le riz est la nourriture de base, socialement la plus
valorise; le manioc et le mas constituent des nourritures d'appoint. L'levage est peu
dvelopp, mais le boeuf, objet jadis d'importantes fonctions rituelles (mariage, funrailles),
tient toujours une place de choix dans le patrimoine lignager Krou. Si les populations ctires
s'adonnent traditionnellement la pche, la chasse (chasse collective au filet chez les Dida et
les Godi, chasse individuelle au fusil ailleurs, pigeage) continue tre pratique chez les
Krou de l'intrieur, dans une fort encore riche en gibiers.
Ces prfrences alimentaires vont guider le choix et la vocation dans les domaines
agricoles, de pche et dlevage de ces groupes ethniques faces aux potentialits immenses de
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la Cte dIvoire en matire de terre cultivable, de ressources halieutiques et pastorales.
Chaque ethnie exerce dabord des activits agricoles, de pche et dlevage qui produisent ce
quelle consomme (activit socio-conomique de subsistance) aprs suivent, pour des raisons
conomiques, les autres activits agricoles, de pche et dlevage.
Selon une communication du Centre national de recherches agronomiques (CNRA) en
mars 2003 intitule Situation actuelle du secteur agricole et perspectives du
dveloppement , (cit par FAO, 2004) 86,9% des exploitations utilisent une main-duvre
familiale. Lagriculture est essentiellement manuelle; seulement 4,4% des exploitations
utilisent la traction animale, surtout dans le Nord. Moins de 1% des exploitations disposent
dun tracteur ou dun motoculteur; 8% possdent des pulvrisateurs. La mme source indique
une utilisation des fumures sur 18% des parcelles dont 14% reoivent de la fumure minrale.
Le CNRA estime que 40% des exploitations agricoles comportent un levage, gnralement
de type traditionnel.
De faon globale, nous retenons que lagriculture ivoirienne est dominance, parfois
archaque et trs faiblement mcanise. Lon utilise encore aujourdhui des outils et
techniques culturales rudimentaires. Lon recourt de faon excessive la machette, la daba,
la culture sur brlis, la force humaine, plutt qu la force mcanique (machine).
Lanalyse de lactivit de production laisse observer que le capital humain (les savoirs
et les comptences des acteurs en matire agricole, halieutique et pastorale) est domin par
les analphabtes ou les dscolariss du cycle primaire en gnrale et dans une moindre
mesure, par les dscolariss du premier du cycle secondaire. Cest donc un capital humain
trs faible niveau et peu qualifi, reparti en groupe. En effet, les cultures vivrires et
marachres ont deux types de main duvre. Nous notons premirement, une main duvre
dominance ivoirienne porte plus vers les cultures pluviales quirrigues des denres entrant
dans la confection de repas de type ivoirien (les marachers comme le piment, laubergine, le
gombo, larachide, loignon, lail et bien dautres denres entrant dans la confection des
sauces de type ivoirien dune part et dautre part les cultures vivrires comme le riz, le mas,
le mil, le sorgho, ligname, le manioc, le taro, la patate, la banane plantain et bien dautres
vivriers entrant dans la confection des plats de rsistance). Cette main duvre est mixte
(masculine et fminine) mais avec une forte prsence fminine pour les marachers et une
forte prsence masculine pour les autres vivriers.
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Deuximement, une main duvre dominance allognes porte plus vers la culture
pluviale quirrigues des denres entrant dans la confection de repas de type ivoirien, des
cultures irrigues du riz et des denres entrant dans la confection de repas de type occidental
(carotte, choux, laitue, concombre, oignon, ail, persille, courgette, pastque); cest une main
doeuvre mixte (masculine et fminine) mais avec une forte prsence masculine pour les
vivriers tout comme pour les marachers. Ceci parce que les allognes sont des immigrants en
majorit clibataires dans leur dbut, et finissent par se marier en retournant, dans la plupart
des cas, chercher leurs compagnes dans leurs pays dorigine, lorsquils ont prospr dans le
mtier (dagriculteur ou de planteur).
Au plan dlevage, en Cte d'Ivoire, il ny avait pas de tradition pastorale avant
l'indpendance. Un levage national a d tre constitu en quelques dcennies. Pendant
longtemps l'levage a t laffaire des nomades Peul. Ils descendaient du Nord, jusqu'
Abidjan, pour vendre leurs btes. La contribution de llevage au Produit Intrieur Bruit
(PIB) agricole est denviron 4,5% et de seulement 2% au PIB total (UEMOA, 2000). Il ny
pas dadhsion durable et massive des nationaux la pratique de llevage. Lon y pratique
encore aujourdhui assez massivement llevage traditionnel ou llevage traditionnel
amlior.
La production nationale de bovins estim environs 1 500 000 ttes dont 80% en zone
soudanienne qui correspond la partie nord de la Cte dIvoire, et 15% en zones guinenne
et soudano-guinenne qui correspond la partie sud et centre de la Cte dIvoire ; et dovins
estims environs 2 500 000 ttes (UEMOA, 2000) ne couvrent pas les besoins du pays. Ce
dysfonctionnement de la filire viande, lait et produits laitiers, se traduit par des dficits en
ces denres avec pour corollaire, des dficiences alimentaires (malnutrition, sous-nutrition,
faim) au sein de la population. Les exemples de coco taill ou au Mali , [Signifient un
repas sans aucune protine animale (poisson ni viande)] d une page sur deux [Il sagit
dune sauce pour deux plats de rsistance (de riz, foutou etc.) partags par deux personnes au
lieu de deux sauces pour deux plats de rsistance vendus dans lieu de restauration.] sont assez
significatifs.
Au total, les productions vivrires, pastorales et halieutiques sont dominance
traditionnelle ; titre dexemple nous notons le secteur rizicole [une trs faible riziculture
moderne face une trs forte riziculture pluviale assurant 80% (Nguessan Y,
(http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/Y6159T/y6159t05.htm) de la production rizicole actuelle]
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le secteur halieutique [une faible pche industrielle contre une forte pche artisanale
continentale lagunaire et maritime assurant 65% des productions nationale (UEMOA, 2000)]
le secteur pastoral (une trs faible production bovine en zones guinenne et soudano-
guinenne qui correspond la partie sud et centre contre une trs forte production en zone
soudanienne qui correspond la partie nord assurant 80% de la production).
La production traditionnelle faisant lusage excessif de la force humaine (exploitation
rudimentaire) plutt qu force de la machine (mcanisation), ne permet pas de couvrir le
besoin national en la matire. La Cte dIvoire, pour combler le reste de ses besoins
alimentaires, recourt limportation. Cette situation maintien la Cte dIvoire dans une
situation de dpendance alimentaire, la soumet aux pouvoirs alimentaires des lignes
internationales dapprovisionnement et de distribution de vivres.
Conclusion
Il ressort que la problmatique du dveloppement en Cte divoire articule la
conscience sociale [Karl Marx (1859)] et culturelle au problme de laccessibilit alimentaire
port par la question du pouvoir alimentaire (Bertrand J.P., 1997). La Cte dIvoire est, en
effet, tributaire de son anthropologie comme champ dexpression des matrices ethniques qui
la composent. Il sagit de matrices ethniques en tant quentits groupales organises
dcomposables en tribus, clans, lignages et familles. Il sagit aussi de matrices ethniques en
tant que socles institutionnelles des traditions et des cultures ivoiriennes structures en
organisations sociales, conomiques, politiques et religieuses. Il sagit enfin de matrices
ethniques en tant que base angulaire des consciences collectives et des reprsentations
socioculturelles. Ces matrices ethniques orientent les choix alimentaires et impriment le
schma dexploitation agricole, pastorale et halieutique. En tant quabsence d'obstacles
matriels et immatriels dans le jeu d'appropriation et de jouissance biologique,
psychologique, sociale et cultuelle des vivres, l'accessibilit alimentaire et sa posture
singulire quest le pouvoir alimentaire peuvent-ils tre reus comme des mesures originales
du dveloppement ?
Les habitudes alimentaires correspondent une logique de choix li, dans un premier
temps, des considrations culturelles et rgionales. Les habitudes alimentaire fcondent,
dans une certaine mesure, l'accessibilit alimentaire et par ricoch les bases du pouvoir
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alimentaire. L'accessibilit alimentaire, tributaire du mode de production de la vie socio-
conomique et surtout de la conscience sociale et culturelle dont elle est lmanation,
sannonce comme indicateur et vecteur pertinents du dveloppement. De faon globale, nous
retenons que lagriculture, la pche et llevage en Cte dIvoire sont domins par des
mentalits composante multiples dinfluences traditionnelles et culturelles.
Les cycles du cercle trs peu ouvert du dveloppementpar le jeu du changement de
mentalit, affecte les modes de production, de conditionnement, de distribution,
dapprovisionnement et de consommation, en brisant par la mme occasion, les verrous et
citadelles de mentalits tournes vers la tradition, le conservatisme, limmobilisme, voir la
marche en arrire. Et si cela nest pas observ, cest alors la tradition qui lemporte sur la
modernit en dominant la conscience sociale et culturelle qui va investir toutes les
composantes de la ralit sociale et culturelles y compris le secteur alimentaire autre vecteur
du dveloppement.
Cependant, la tradition nest pas le seul facteur explicatif de cet de fait. Il faut aussi
ouvrir lanalyse vers dautres horizons, sagissant du pouvoir alimentaire, vers llaboration
des politiques alimentaires pertinentes articulant les problmes agraires et fonciers.
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UDC:334.722.012.64/.65:658.14(662.6)
TEST OF ACCEPTABILITY OF PROFIT AND LOSS
SHARING FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS BY SMALL
SCALE BUSINESSES IN AND AROUND KANO CITY IN
NORTHERN NIGERIA
Suleiman Muhammad Hussaini, PhD
Department of Business Administration, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria-Nigeria
Hussaini Usman Malami, PhD
Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Usmanu Danfodiyo University
Sokoto-Nigeria
Abstract
The persistent lack of or inadequate financing that has bedeviled small scale businesses hampered
growth of the sector, hence adversely affects the Nigerian economy. The period of existence and
expertise in financial intermediation of conventional interest based banks notwithstanding. They
are reluctant in advancing loans to SSBs because of inherent risk in doing so. The objective of this
paper is to test whether SSBs in Kano and its environs in Northern part of Nigeria would be
prepared to access funds through an alternative profit and loss sharing financing arrangements.
Both primary and secondary sources of data were used. Questionnaires were administered,
responses were analysed, and logit regression analysis was utilized to test the acceptability of the
PLS financing method. The findings of the study revealed a desire for an alternative PLS financing
method
.
Keywords: Profit, Loss, Small scale businesses
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Introduction
Finance is a necessary factor in all entrepreneurial endeavors. The centrality of
finance stem from the dependency of other factors unto it. Apart from the entrepreneurial
efforts of the promoter(s) of a business, all other factors require funds. Finance is a cogent
requirement not only for start up, but also for the incumbents. It enhances growth in small
and large scale businesses.
The need for finance as a precursor for growth and survival is more in the small scale
businesses (SSBs). The reason for this is manifold: the ownership structure of SSBs is a
limiting factor to the quantum of capital required by SSBs. Also the legal requirement for the
formation of SSBs and restrictions in listing on the Nigeria stock exchange affect their funds
availability. The financing requirements of SSBs are usually beyond the capability of
owner(s) of the businesses. Therefore, recourse would have to be made to other source(s).
The available source(s) could be formal or informal. The cost of finance, ease of accessibility
and collaterals are some of the major considerations that SSBs have to contend with when
deciding where to seek funds. Providers of funds, on their part are concerned more with the
safety of their funds, yield thereof and administrative cost of advancing and monitoring loans.
A financing need that is categorized as risky would attract higher than normal interest rate,
hence cost of advancing loans to SSBs would have to be higher because they are perceived as
highly risky.
High cost of funds has its adverse effects on SSBs. It inhibits growth of the sector and
by implication growth of the economy. High risk associated with SSBs lending has been the
reason for conventional banks reluctance in lending to the SSBs. On their part, SSBs laments
the devastating effects of high interest rate and the stringent conditions that are prerequisite to
interest based lending. Though other sources of finance are available, Binks and
Ennew(1996) assert that SSBS are the largest clientele of bank. Despite being the largest in
terms of number of customers, the actual lending that is channeled to them by the banks is
insignificant when compared with funds advanced to large scale business.
SSBs are wary of accessing funds from conventional interest based banks because of
the interest rate element (CBN, 2009). The solution to the financing problem might be an
alternative financing method that is devoid of interest. The objective of this study is to
determine whether SSBs would be prepared to access financing vide the profit and loss
sharing (PLS) financing arrangements. To achieve this objective, the paper is divided into
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five sections with this section being the first. Section two reviews the concept of PLS as well
as empirical studies in the area. The third section presents the methodology adopted for the
study. Section four present results and analyses the data .The last section concludes the paper.
2- Review of Some Relevant Literature
The reincarnation of the SSBs that started in the early seventies, emanated from the
realization of its economic growth potentials. This phenomenon awakens research efforts in
the sector. Prior to this period, the issue of small firms is not a major focus in economics.
This lack of interest was buttressed by Acs (2004:8) when he asserts that the small firm has
for a long time remained a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. The reason for
this neglect was because mass production were thought to be the only route to economic
growth and development, and therefore any shift of paradigm was perceived as inefficient.
However, redirection of attention from mass to customized production created a niche for the
SSBs.
Studies across the globe have identified the indispensability of finance to SSBs as
well its constraint to the sector (Beck and Demirgur-Kunt, 2006). The existence of
institutional intermediaries that specializes in providing financing at a price, banks could
have provided a succor for the financing problem of SSBs, but alas they are reluctant in
lending to SSBs because of the risky nature of SSBs lending (Owualah, 2004). The
asymmetric information risk of moral hazard and adverse selection inherent in SSBs
financing discourages banks from advancing loans to this sector. But being a vital component
of the banking public, banks must have to transact business with the SSBs.
There is no universally accepted definition of small-scale business, because the
classification of business into large or small scale is relative. Bandar and Presley (1992)
observe that the different socio-economic structures of each country are the reasons for non-
uniformity in definition of SSBs. Therefore, the definition adopted for this study is the Small
and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN) definition of SSB,
but devoid of the labour requirement. The reason for this is twofold. Firstly, SMEDAN is the
organ of the Nigerian government that is vested with activities of SSBs. Secondly , since the
emphasis of this study is on the financing aspect of SSBs , we belief that relaxing the labour
requirement of the SMEDANs definition will not significantly affect result of this work.
Hence, we define a SSB as an Enterprise whose assets is up to 0.5 million Naira, and not
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more than 50 million Naira (3120 Dollars), excluding cost of land and employing not more
than one hundred people.
2.1 Profit and loss sharing (PLS) mode of financing
PLS is a contractual arrangement between two or more transacting parties, which
allows them to pool their resources together to invest in a project for the purpose of sharing
profit and loss (Usmani, 1999). The idea of PLS gain prominence with the advent of the
Islamic banking. Most Islamic economists contend that PLS is based on two major modes of
financing, namely; Musharaka and Mudarabah (Jalaluddin, 1999).
Musharaka simply means partnership. It is a kind of partnership between two or
more people, whereby each one of the contracting parties makes a certain contribution for the
generation of capital. All the contracting parties have full right in the management and
administration of the capital, but it is not necessary required of them to do so. Mudarabah on
the other hand, is a contract where one party provides capital and the other party goes into the
business by the provision of his expertise, who consequently turned out to be an entrepreneur.
The emphasis of these modes of financing is that reward sharing is related to risk-
sharing, risk sharing and not risk transfer. The main distinguishing features of PLS includes;
Return Sharing Method (RSM), which is agreed upon before commencement of the business.
Principal and return are not guaranteed in the event of loss, except where it is established that
the loss is as a result of negligence on the part of the active partner. Thus, it is based on trust
and does not necessarily require any collateral.
There are very few empirical studies that seek to determine whether or not, SSBs
would be willing to access funds through the PLS financing arrangements. Surprisingly,
majority of these are from Australia. Dar and Presley (2000) and Gait and Worthington
(2007) analysed the persistence of Murabaha (cost-plus) financing in most Islamic banks.
They posit the need for Islamic banks to enhance financing via PLS. Dar and Presley (2000)
identified ignorance and lack of adequate awareness as the major impediments to
acceptability of the PLS. In addition, the two studies posited that monitoring can reduce the
information asymmetry inherent in PLS, but that it will tend to reduce profit share of SSBs.
Jalaluddin (1999) study the attitudes towards the probability of using PLS financing by
Australian SSBs. He identified five independent variables that may entice SSBs to prefer the
PLS, but did not justify selection of these variables against others. The major finding of the
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study was that about 60% of Australian SSBs were prepared to try the use of PLS financing
arrangement. The risk sharing between financier and financee, together with linkage of costs
of financing to profitability were the benefits the SSBs envisaged to be derived from this
financing mode. Management interference was the reason that was likely to prevent those
who are not prepared to try the PLS.
Bandar and Presley (1992) studied the behavior of small scale manufacturing
businesses in Saudi Arabia towards the Islamic modes of finance in general and PLS in
particular. Surprisingly, the study revealed that about 85% of the sampled SSBs rejected the
proposal for accessing funds through the PLS .The reason for the mass rejection was twofold;
the perception that PLS automatically warrants dilution of ownership of the business and,
since the bulk of Saudi Arabian banks are interest based, they are apprehensive that accessing
funds from them may indirectly mean dealing in interest. The former was however the main
reason for the rejection. They concluded that the PLS is not a reliable source of financing
SSBs, because of the ignorance of the workings of PLS, that was probably caused by the
lapse of time between when it was last truly practiced and the influence of the intrusion of
colonizers (Aliyu, 2000).
Al-Satti (1992) cited in Aliero (2002) fault Bandar and Presley (1992) on the ground
that since PLS shares risks, it should logically be the preference of SSBs in less developed
countries. The linkage of cost of finance to outcome of the business eliminates the obnoxious
effects of interest rate, pooling experience together enhance success of SSBs and that religion
would influence acceptance of PLS. Al-Saati assumes other factors to be constant. His
envision is a society that is enlightened and insulated from the influence of crusaders. Al-
Saati also observed the inadequacy of the statistical technique used to analyse the data, but he
did not suggest the appropriate statistical tool that could have been employed. Aliero (2002)
flawed Al-sattis assertions because it lack empirical prove. We concurred with Alieros
observation.
Aliero (2004) studied the possibility of using Rotating Savings and Credit
Associations (ROSCAS) to finance SSBs in the Northern Nigerian city of Sokoto. He opined
that Roscas can be an alternative interest free means of financing SSBs. Though Roscas is a
non interest mode of financing, but pooling SSBs together for the purpose of operating a
Roscas may be cumbersome and impracticable.
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3- Methodology
Data for this study were obtained from both primary and secondary sources.
Questionnaires were administered on 350 sampled SSBS. The questionnaire was structured
using predominantly close-ended and five point Likert-type questions. Stratified random
sampling was used to generate the sample size of 350. The population of registered and
operational SSBs in Kano and its environs during the study period was 2029. Sample size of
350 was selected from the total number. The sample was determined using Yamanes (1968)
formula as expressed by Israel (1992) thus;
N = N
_________
1 + N(e)
2
Where,
n = Sample size
N = total population
e = Level of significance (95%)
The total number of small scale businesses obtained from Kano State Ministry of
Commerce and industry as at 2010, was two thousand and twenty- nine (2029), out of which,
commerce constituted 46%, service related 35%, manufacturing 17% and finally, processing
that stood at 2%.
The unequal numbers of the respective business lines made us represent each business line to
be sampled on the basis of its proportion in the total number of businesses. We thus,
determined the number of the SSBs to be sampled; viz;
r = X x 350
Number of registered businesses 1
Where;
r = number of businesses to be chosen from each line of business, and
x = total number of a particular business line, as appeared in the list
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In this way, we got the following sample size for each line of business; commerce -
162, service related - 123, manufacturing - 60 and processing - 5.
Simple random sampling was afterward used to choose the small businesses to be
included in the sample. Three hundred and sixteen (316) questionnaires were returned, but
five were invalidated (illegible) and thus, cannot be used. Therefore, three hundred and
eleven (311) questionnaires were available for use, representing 88.85% response rate.
The logistic and probit regression were used to test the acceptability or otherwise of
the Profit and loss sharing financing arrangement. Jalaluddin (1999) used the Logit and Probit
to predict the preparedness of Australian SSBs to access finance vide the PLS. Logistic and
Probit regression are used when the dependent variable is a categorical variable and the
independent variables are metric variables (Anderson, 2007). The dependent variable usually
consists of two groups or classifications, for example, good or bad, accept or reject, male
versus female or high versus low. Other instances are where more than two groups are
involved, such as low, medium and high classifications.
For the purpose of this study respondents were asked to use a scale of 5 1 vides;
strongly agree, agree, undecided, disagree, and strongly disagree to indicate their degree of
acceptance with the following statements;
Var 001: The PLS financing arrangement allows the sharing of risk between financier and
financee;
Var 002: PLS intervenes with the management of the business, hence may dilute ownership;
Var 003: In PLS, cost of financing is dependent on profit;
Var 004: In PLS, tangible collateral is not a necessary condition;
Var 005: PLS would motivate business expansion as the future risk associated with the
expansion could be shared with financiers.
These Statements were the features of the PLS, thus represented by the following variables:
Variables: r001= X
1
, Variables 002 = X
2
, variable 003 = X
3,
variable 004 = X
4,
and variable
005 = X
5.
The criterion variable was Y where, Y = 1, stands for businesses that were ready
to seek financing through the PLS arrangement, and Y = 0 for businesses that wont seek
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financing through the PLS, otherwise Group N. The dependent variable is therefore, the two
groups of small businesses (Group Y and Group N), and the independent variables were the
variables outlined above.
4-Data analysis
We used the probit and logistic regression to test the acceptability or otherwise of the
PLS amongst SSBs, particularly in Kano and its environments.
4.1-Result of logit and probit analysis
Table below provides result of probit and logistic regressions.
Table 1: Attitudes of SSBs in Kano metropolis towards PLS financing
INDEPENDENT VALUE LOGIT PROBIT
Variables Constant 2.090
(4.9292)
1.9987
(4.9455)
Var001 The PLS financing arrangement allows the sharing of
risk between financier and financee,
-0.656
(4.6197) *
-0.675
(4.6321)
*
Var002 PLS intervenes with the management of the business,
hence may dilute ownership
-0.246
(-2.2162)
*
-0.254
(-2.223)
*
Var003 In PLS, cost of financing is dependant on profit -0.255
(2.1567) *
-02157
(2.1641)
*
Var004 In PLS, Tangible collateral not a necessary condition, 0.372
(2.755) *
0.375
(2.776) *
Var005 PLS would motivate business expansion as the future
risk associated with the expansion could be shared with
0.073 0.056
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financiers (0.6348) (0.612
Log of likelihood function -320.582 -174.633
R Square 0.193 0.198
% Correct Prediction 71.9 73.8
Logit and probit analysis Output, 2011
*significant at 0.05
The Criterion variable was the type of preference (x),
Where;
X = 1, if the business was prepared to apply PLS
X = 0, if the business was not prepared to apply PLS
The critical t - value is 1.96, hence Variables 1, 2, 3 and 4 are statistically significant.
The first, third and fourth variables are statistically significant and positive, while the second
variable is significant and negative. This suggests that the higher the degree of risk borne by a
financier, the more he shares in the profit, and the less intervention in management, the
higher the probability that SSBs will use the PLS as a financing option, the better. The second
variable suggests that SSBs would not mind intervention in management of their businesses
by fund provider(s), but less of it can make them prefer PLS. The fourth variable is
statistically significant and positive meaning that SSBs would accept PLS because of non
imposition of collateral as a necessary condition for accessing funds.
The R
2
for both the logit and probit indicates the goodness of fit. The Probit model
gives marginally better results than the logit (in terms of R
2
and t values).
Results for both probit and logit suggest that small businesses are indifferent as to
capacity of PLS to motivation expansion. This is probably due to the dearth of practical
experience on operation of PLS financing arrangement amongst Nigerians SSBs.
The response indicated in table (2) below shows preference of SSBs for PLS
financing mode. Larger percentage of the surveyed SSBs would prefer the PLS financing
arrangement.
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Table 2: Desire for PLS
Preference
for PLS
Frequency % Awareness
of PLS
Frequency %
Yes 221 71.06 Yes 253 81.35
No 90 28.94 No 51 16.40
Total 311 100
Others
Total
7
311
02.25
100.0
Field Study: 17
th
Ocober, 2011
The high preference rate for the PLS by SSBs as shown in the table above is an
indication that it will be widely accepted by SSBs in Nigeria. Over 70% of the surveyed
SSBs expressed readiness to explore the PLS. The rate of awareness of the PLS also reflects
the eagerness to experiment it. Two hundred and twenty-one (221) SSBs or 71.6 % of the
surveyed SSBs know about PLS. Conventional banks are perpetually introducing new
financial products that are more of trading than interest based. The consistent introduction of
these new financial products tailored towards costplus financing and equity participation
has aroused the inquisitiveness of financees and also superiority of the PLS
5- Conclusion
The global recognition of the potential of SSBs in harnessing economic advancements
has heightened the need for assisting SSBs to grow and survive. The conventional interest
based banking method has to charge interest rate attached with other conditions, both of
which are inimical to success of SSBs. The solution to the peculiarity of SSBs financing
problem is an alternative financing arrangement devoid of interest payment.
Profit and loss sharing mode of financing alternative would be accepted by SSBs in
Nigeria because it allows for sharing of risk as against its total transfer to financee as
obtained in the conventional interest based financing mode. It also relates cost of funds to the
accrued profit, and not anticipated earnings, and it does not impose collateral as a necessary
condition for the provision of funds. The major snag to acceptability of PLS, according to
Nigerias SSBs is the potential to interfere in the management of the business of financee, as
allowed by PLS doctrine. This fear could be allayed by opting for a variant of the PLS that do
not allow interference in the management of the business of the financee. Based on the
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findings of this study we identify some policy implication issues that require the attention of
government.
The resentment of the interest based financing modes and desire for the PLS is a good
development. It is an indication of the obsession of the banking public with the exploitative
interest based financing. The government should therefore respond to the yearning of the
teeming business community that indicated desire for this financing arrangement by ensuring
that efforts are intensified towards reorienting Nigerians on the need to imbibe honesty,
diligence and transparency in business dealings. This is because PLS can thrive only where
honesty and transparency are the dictum of business transactions. The larger society should
also be made to develop a mechanism through which dishonest business persons or
organizations are ostracized.
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APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE
NAME OF ENTERPRISE
WORKING CAPITAL
Please indicate your agreement with the following statements;
Profit loss sharing (PLS) allows sharing of risk between entrepreneur and financier
a. Strongly agree
b. Agree
c. Undecided
d. Disagree
e. Strongly disagree
PLS interfere with management of the firm
a. Strongly agree
b. Agree
c. Undecided
d. Disagree
e. Strongly disagree
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PLS links cost of borrowing to profitability
a. Strongly agree
b. Agree
c. Undecided
d. Disagree
e. Strongly disagree
PLS do not strictly impose collateral as a condition
a. Strongly agree
b. Agree
c. Undecided
d. Disagree
e. Strongly disagree
PLS would motivate business expansion as the future risk associated with the expansion
would be shared with financiers
a. Strongly agree
b. Agree
c. Undecided
d. Disagree
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e. Strongly disagree
PLS would be preferred financing mode than the interest based mode
a. Strongly agree
b. Agree
c. Undecided
d. Disagree
e. Strongly disagree
PLS is a well known financing mode in Nigeria
a. Strongly agree
b. Agree
c. Undecided
d. Disagree
e. Strongly disagree
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UDC:656.12-05:316.35]:303.6(540)"2010"
SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE OF CYCLE RICKSHAW
PULLERS: A CASE STUDY
Jabir Hasan Khan, PhD
Tarique Hassan, PhD candidate
Shamshad, PhD candidate
Department of Geography Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, Uttar Pradesh
Abstract
The present paper is an attempt to analyze the socio-economic characteristics of cycle rickshaw pullers and to
find out the causes of rickshaw pulling. The adverse effects of this profession on the health of the rickshaw
pullers, the problems faced by them and their remedial measures have been also taken into account. The study is
based on primary data collected through the field survey and direct questionnaire to the respondents in Aligarh
city. The survey was carried out during the months of February and March, 2010. The overall analysis of the
study reveals that the rickshaw pullers are one of the poorest sections of the society, living in abject poverty but
play a pivotal role in intra-city transportation system. Neither is their working environment regulated nor their
social security issues are addressed. They are also unaware about the governmental schemes launched for
poverty alleviation and their accessibility in basic amenities and infrastructural facilities is also very poor.
Keywords: Abject poverty, breadwinners, cycle rickshaw pullers, disadvantageous, intra-
city transport, vulnerability
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Introduction:
The word rickshaw originates from the Japanese word jinrikisha, which literally
means human-powered vehicle (Encyclopedia Britannica, 1993). Rickshaws originally
developed in Japan in the late 1860s (Saito, T., 1979: 52), represented a clear technological
advancement on its major predecessor, the Sedan chair. It came into view in Shanghai in
1873 (Chen, 1955: 26 and Zheng, 1957: 17),and became the predominant mode of short-
distance individual mode of transport by the early 1900s (Peng, S.,1935: 201). These
rickshaws are called by different names in different countries such as becak in Indonesia,
cyclo in Phnom Penh of Cambodia and in Vietnam (Pacione, 2005: 584). In India, the term
rickshaw usually refers to a cycle rickshaw, appeared around 1870s, first in Shimla and then,
20 years later, in Kolkata (Dainik Jagran: 2009). Until the 1980s plying of rickshaws were
found mainly in the walled or old cities of the country, middle-class neighborhoods and in the
outlying colonies of cities. Now one can see them plying in virtually all elite colonies of big
cities of the country (Kishwar, 2009: 310).
Cycle rickshaws have been used as a means of transportation for social elite but, since
1880s, they play a pivotal role in the intra-city transport system, especially in the towns and
cities of the third world countries, where, the streets connecting the roads are very narrow on
which motor vehicles cannot be easily driven. Probably they are the only transport system to
provide point to point travel (Rajvanshi, 2002: 1).
Cycle rickshaw pullers are the most disadvantageous section of the people who are
engaged in transportation activities for getting their means of livelihood, because pulling of
rickshaw is a menial and hazardous occupation (Warren, 1985: 4). Despite the engagement of
the rickshaw pullers either in waiting for the passengers/commodities or in pulling the
rickshaws to carry the passengers and the commodities from one place to another from early
morning to late evening or in whole night and even, sometimes, round the clock, they are not
in position to earn the needed amount of money to fulfill their basic needs of life. Cycling on
an empty stomach is a common experience among them. The vulnerability of rickshaw
pullers further accentuated by the fact that the majority of those who ride rickshaws are not
owners as well as there is constant struggle and increased competition among the rickshaw
pullers.
According to the current estimates, there are currently 8 million rickshaw pullers in
India of whom 95 percent do not own their vehicle due to lack of funds (Poirier, 2009),
whose life is tough, the work is arduous and the living condition is shoddier. As miserable as
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pulling a rickshaw may have been, it offered an income better than that available in the
villages (Strand, 1989: 29), because urban rickshaw pullers come from a very poor economic
background consistent with the characteristics of chronic poverty (Begum, S. & Binayak, S.,
2004: 2), thereby most of them migrate to cities from rural areas in search of employment for
getting better means of livelihood (Khan, 2010:112), but in reality their expectations are
rarely realized (Warren, 1985: 4). After arrival in cities, they subsist on very little as they try
and save money as much as they can to send back to their families in their villages and live a
miserable life where their extent of accessibility in housing, electricity, water and other
amenities is very poor.
These deprived and exploited sections are not explicitly recognized in policy
documents by the government and very little attention has been paid in humanizing the
livelihood of the rickshaw pullers. It is, therefore, necessary to collect relevant information to
study the socio-economic composition, causes, problems and the implications of such
occupation on the health and overall life of the rickshaw pullers, which could be brought
before the society and appropriate policies may be framed to solve their problems.
Aims and Objectives:
The present study aims to examine the socio-economic status, causes and the problems
of rickshaw pullers in Aligarh city. The specific objectives of the study are:
To study and analyze the socio-economic composition and structure of rickshaw
pullers in Aligarh city.
To find out the socio-economic causes of rickshaw pulling.
To examine the living condition by analyzing their accessibility in housing and other
infrastructural facilities.
To highlight the implications arises out of this profession on the health of rickshaw
pullers.
To identify socio-economic problems faced by rickshaw pullers and to suggest remedial
measures to overcome them.
Study Area:
Aligarh city as a whole has been chosen as study area for the present research work.
The city extending from 27 52 to 27 56 north latitude and 78 3 to 78 6 east longitudes,
lies in the western part of Uttar Pradesh and takes up a geographical area of about 36.10
square kilometers. It comprises of 60 wards, accommodates a residential population of 6,
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69,087 of which 3, 56,725 are males and 3, 12,362 females (Annual Report 2004,
Lucknow). According to the 2001 Indian census, in the city 63.92 percent population
was literate. The literacy rate among males was 70.63 percent and among females it
was 56.23 percent. Muslimsconstitute nearly one-third of the totalpopulation of Aligarh
city. Since independence, Aligarh city has grown from a small town to an important centre
for industry and education. There are three factors, which have contributed to the
development of Aligarh city, i.e., the establishment of Aligarh Muslim University (AMU) in
1920, development of light industries and its demarcation as the district headquarters.
Moreover, in the last twodecades, a number of new schools and colleges have been also
established in the city. The city bus services are very limited and are available on only some
main roads, therefore, rickshaws are mostly used as an important means in the intra-city
transportation.
Source: Nagar Nigam Aligarh, 2010.Fig. 1
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69,087 of which 3, 56,725 are males and 3, 12,362 females (Annual Report 2004,
Lucknow). According to the 2001 Indian census, in the city 63.92 percent population
was literate. The literacy rate among males was 70.63 percent and among females it
was 56.23 percent. Muslimsconstitute nearly one-third of the totalpopulation of Aligarh
city. Since independence, Aligarh city has grown from a small town to an important centre
for industry and education. There are three factors, which have contributed to the
development of Aligarh city, i.e., the establishment of Aligarh Muslim University (AMU) in
1920, development of light industries and its demarcation as the district headquarters.
Moreover, in the last twodecades, a number of new schools and colleges have been also
established in the city. The city bus services are very limited and are available on only some
main roads, therefore, rickshaws are mostly used as an important means in the intra-city
transportation.
Source: Nagar Nigam Aligarh, 2010.Fig. 1
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69,087 of which 3, 56,725 are males and 3, 12,362 females (Annual Report 2004,
Lucknow). According to the 2001 Indian census, in the city 63.92 percent population
was literate. The literacy rate among males was 70.63 percent and among females it
was 56.23 percent. Muslimsconstitute nearly one-third of the totalpopulation of Aligarh
city. Since independence, Aligarh city has grown from a small town to an important centre
for industry and education. There are three factors, which have contributed to the
development of Aligarh city, i.e., the establishment of Aligarh Muslim University (AMU) in
1920, development of light industries and its demarcation as the district headquarters.
Moreover, in the last twodecades, a number of new schools and colleges have been also
established in the city. The city bus services are very limited and are available on only some
main roads, therefore, rickshaws are mostly used as an important means in the intra-city
transportation.
Source: Nagar Nigam Aligarh, 2010.Fig. 1
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Data and Methodology:
The study is based on the primary data generated through field survey and direct
questionnaire to the respondents in Aligarh city. The survey was carried out during the
months of February and March, 2010. Firstly, a pilot survey was made to identify the main
areas of rickshaw pulling in the city. From the selected areas, 100 rickshaw pullers were
interviewed (see Table 1) for collection of information about their socio-economic
characteristics, causes of rickshaw pulling and problems faced by them etc. After the field
work was over, the data collected by using individual slips were scrutinized and were
processed in tabular forms according to the requirements of the various facets of the study.
Table 1
Distribution of Places of Interview and Number of Rickshaw Pullers Interviewed at
these Places in Aligarh City
Places of Interview No. of Rickshaw Pullers Interviewed
Railway Station 17
Centre Point 13
J.N. Medical College 12
Masoodabad Bus Stand 10
G.T. Road 08
Old Bus Stand 08
Rasal Ganj 08
Jamalpur 07
Ramghat Road 06
Dodhpur 05
Railway Road 06
Total 100
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Source: Based on field survey, 2010.
Socio-Economic and Structural Analysis of Cycle Rickshaw Pullers:
Table 2 depicts the age structure of rickshaw pullers in Aligarh city. Rickshaw pulling is
an arduous nature of job which requires hard labour and physical strength in which age plays
a vital role. The highest proportion of rickshaw pullers, 45 percent has been recorded in 20-
30 age-group, it is only because they are young and energetic in this age-group. After 30
years of age the data given in the Table 2 shows the declining trend in the proportion of
rickshaw pullers in various age-groups. The proportion has been recorded 25 percent in 30-40
age-group, 14 percent in 41-50 age-group and only 6 percent above 50 years of age.
However, 10 percent of rickshaw pullers were teenagers (14-19 age-group).
On the basis of above analysis of the data given in Table 2, it may be inferred that the
community of cycle rickshaw pullers is dominated by the persons in young and productive
age-groups and have a very little share in the juvenile and senile age-groups. All rickshaw
pullers were males because no female was found to be engaged in the cycle rickshaw pulling.
Table 2
Age Structure of Rickshaw Pullers Population in Aligarh City
Age-groups Percent
14-19 10
20-30 45
31-40 25
41-50 14
More than 50 06
Total 100
Source: Based on field survey, 2010.
Table 3 provides information about the marital status of rickshaw pullers. An examination
of Table 3 indicates that nearly three-fourth (71 percent) of the rickshaw pullers are married
whereas 23 percent are unmarried and remaining 6 percent are widowers. However, the most
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of the married rickshaw pullers reported that they migrated alone from rural areas in the city
in search of jobs and their wives are still staying in rural areas.
Table 3
Marital Status of Rickshaw Pullers in Aligarh city
Status Percent
Married 71
Unmarried 23
Widower 06
Total 100
Source: Based on field survey, 2010.
Table 4 presents distribution of educational status of rickshaw pullers in Aligarh city.
The analysis of Table 4 shows that, out of 100 rickshaw pullers, 68 percent are illiterate and
only 32 percent are literate. Out of 32 percent literates, 24 percent got education upto primary
level, 04 percent upto middle level, 03 percent upto secondary level and only 01 percent up to
graduation. According to 2001 Indian census, the general male illiteracy
Table 4
Educational Status of Rickshaw Pullers in Aligarh City
Educational status Percent
Illiterate 68
Primary 24
Middle 04
Secondary 03
Graduate 01
Total 100
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Source: Based on field survey, 2010.
Rate in India is 24.15 percent, but the high mass-illiteracy (68 percent) among
rickshaw pullers itself tells their pitiable story of mass-poverty, inaccessibility in the
educational facilities and various other types of basic amenities and facilities. Truly speaking,
due to their illiteracy and unskillness, the poverty stricken persons do not have any other
alternative to earn the means of livelihood but to get easily engaged themselves in rickshaw
pulling.
Table 5
Percent Distribution of Rickshaw Pullers by their Places of Birth in Aligarh City
State/Districts Percent
Within Aligarh 46
U.P.(excluding Aligarh) 31
Bihar 18
West Bengal 03
Madhya Pradesh 02
Total 100
Source: Based on field survey, 2010.
The distribution of rickshaw pullers by places of their birth is given in Table 5. It can be
seen in the Table 5 that the majority of the rickshaw pullers (46 percent) has their place of
birth within the Aligarh district, and 31 percent migrated from other districts of Uttar Pradesh
to Aligarh city for rickshaw pulling. The migration of rickshaw pullers from the states
beyond Uttar Pradesh toAligarh city has been recorded 18 percent, 3 percent and 2 percent
from Bihar, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh respectively.
Table 6 provides data about the socio-economic causes which compelled the poor people
to engage themselves in rickshaw pulling. Unemployment, poverty, low income and small
size of land holdings are the major economic causes which forced to about 53.30 percent of
the rickshaw pullers to involve themselves in the rickshaw pulling, whereas among the social
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factors, large family size, illiteracy, early marriage, family disintegration and migration
pushed to 23.02 percent of them to pull rickshaws. Moreover, unskillness, cash payment, debt
and uncertainty in production of crops, desire of work/self respect and death of parents
derived 23.68 percent of the rickshaw pullers towards the pulling of the rickshaws.
Table 6
Percentage Distribution of Socio-Economic Causes of Rickshaw Pulling in
Aligarh City
Causes Percent
Unemployment 22.45
Poverty 18.36
Unskilled 12.06
Low income 10.42
Large size of family 08.70
Illiteracy 07.75
Cash payment 05.72
Debt and uncertainty in production of crops 03.26
Early marriage 02.59
Family disintegration 02.48
Small size of land holding 02.07
Desire for Work /self respect 01.64
Migration 01.50
Orphanage 01.00
Total 100.00
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Source: Based on field survey, 2010.
Table 7 presents the percentage distribution of average daily income earned by rickshaw
pullers in rickshaw pulling in Aligarh city. An analysis of data given in Table 7 shows that 36
percent rickshaw pullers earned rupees 100-150 per day, 23 percent gained between 50-100
rupees in a day and 14 percent could get less than rupees 50 in a day. Moreover, the average
daily income of 15 percent rickshaw pullers has been recorded between rupees 151-200 and
only 12 percent managed to earn more than rupees 201-250 in a day.
The percentage distribution of average daily working hours and average monthly working
days of the rickshaw pullers has been given in Table 8. The data given in
Table 7
Percentage Distribution of Average Daily Income of Rickshaw Pullers Earned by
them in Rickshaw pulling in Aligarh City
Daily Income (Rupees) Percent
Less than 50 14
50-100 23
101-150 36
151-200 15
201-250 12
Total 100
Source: Based on field survey, 2010.
Table 8 reveals that 38 percent of rickshaw pullers do the arduous work of rickshaw
pulling for more than 10 hours in a day and 30 percent ply their rickshaws between 8 to 10
hours in a day. Moreover, the average daily working hours of 18 percent rickshaw pullers
have been reported between 5 to 7 hours and of 14 percent less than 5 hours. The further
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analysis of data provided in Table 8 shows that average monthly working days of 42 percent
rickshaw pullers are more than 25 days and 32 percent were found to be engaged in rickshaw
pulling between 20 to 25 days in a month. However, 8 percent rickshaw pullers reported to
pull the rickshaws on roads for less than 15 days in a month.
Table 8
Percentage Distribution of Average Daily Working Hours and Average
Monthly Working Days of Rickshaw Pullers in Aligarh City
1- Daily working hours Percent
Less than 5 14
5-7 18
8-10 30
More than 10 38
Total 100
2- Monthly working days Percent
Less than 15 08
15-20 18
20-25 32
More than 25 42
Total 100
Source: Based on field survey, 2010.
Table 9 shows the percentage distribution of housing condition and the type of facilities
available in the dwellings of rickshaw pullers. Out of total sampled rickshaw pullers, 44
percent have their own houses and 42 percent stay in rented houses. Moreover
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Table 9
Percentage Distribution of Housing Condition and Type of Facilities
Available in the Dwellings of Rickshaw pullers in Aligarh City
1- Status of House Percent
a) Own 44
b) Rented 42
c) slum 09
d) footpath and other 05
Total 100
2- Type of Dwelling Percent
a) Pucca 32
b) Kachcha 34
c) Slums 20
d) Semi-pucca 14
Total 100
3- Facilities in the dwellings Percent
Means of drinking water
a) Public hand pumps 40
b) Private hand pumps 31
c) Public taps 12
d) Private taps 09
e) Others 08
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Total 100
4- Means of fuel Percent
a) Fuel wood 55.65
b) Cow dung 20.88
c) Leaves 06.08
d) Kerosene 06.08
e) LPG. 05.22
f) Electricity 04.35
g) Eat in hotels 01.74
Total 100.00
5- Types of latrine Percent
b) Field 48
a) Flush 43
c) Public toilets 09
Total 100
Source: Based on field survey, 2010.
(9 percent) rickshaw pullers households are slum-dwellers and remaining (5 percent)
live in either garages or sleep at footpaths. The data regarding type of dwelling by
construction revealsthat more than one and half of the rickshaw puller households live in
kachcha or slum type of dwellings and 32 percent, staying generally in rented houses, have
pucca houses. The further analysis of data shows that the main sources of drinking water
among rickshaw pullers are the public hand pumps which constituteabout 40 percent of the
totalsampled rickshaw pullers households while 31 percent have their own hand pumps and
12 percent of use the public taps for drinking water, 4 percent have their own taps and
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remaining 8 percent, staying in the rented houses, have submersibles as a means of drinking
water.
The data collected pertaining to the means of fuel used for cooking show that the majority
of rickshaw puller households, around 55.65 percent use fuel wood for cooking, 20.88
percent reported using cow dung as a fuel, 6.08 percent cooked by burning the leaves of trees,
5.22 percent used small L.P.G. cylinders for cooking and 10.17 percent of them used
kerosene oil and electricity, while 1.74 percent do not cook at their homes but they eat
inhotels.
An examination of data on the type of latrine facility available to households makes it
clear that most of the rickshaw pullers do not have this facility within the premises of their
dwellings and about 48 percent of them go to fields for night soil, 43 percent have flush and
only 9 percent used public toilets on payments.
The percentage distribution of rickshaw puller households which possess durable goods
has been given in Table 10. The infrastructural facilities are important for better living, but
the rickshaw pullers who live in abject poverty, do not have accessibility in these facilities.
The analysis of data given in the Table 10 reveals thatthe highestproportion of
rickshawpullers (60 per cent) has wrist watches because they have to strictly follow the
schooltimings in carrying the school children. The next dominating itempossessed by
therickshaw pullers isradio (30 percent), followed by cooker 28 percent, mobile 20 percent,
television 18 percent, tape recorder13 percent and C.D. player 7 percent, while 20 percent of
themhave no durable goods.However, no one possesses the costly items like electric fan, air
and water coolers, fridge and scooter etc.
Table 10
Percentage Distribution of Rickshaw Puller Households which possess Durable Goods
in Aligarh City
Items Percent
Wrist watch 60
Radio 30
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Cooker 28
Cycle 21
Mobile 20
Television 18
Tape recorder 13
C.D. player 07
Others 02
No item 20
Source: Based on field survey, 2010.
Table 11 presents the percentage distribution of practices of bad habits among rickshaw
pullers. The bad habits like drinking, drug addiction, gambling etc. deteriorate the social
values, dignity, and quality of life but, now, such evils have percolated upto to the lowest
stratum of the society, and, consequently, the socio-economic problems of poor have further
got multiplied and intensified. Out of total sampled rickshaw pullers, 47 percent are smokers,
43 percentgutka andtobacco users, 7 percent drunkers, 6 percent gamblers and 4 percent of
them have the addiction of drugs. However, 30 percent of them have no bad habits.
Table 11
Percentage Distribution of Practices of Bad Habits among Rickshaw Pullers in
Aligarh city
Bad habits Percent
Smoking 47
Gutka and Tobacco 43
Drinking 07
Gambling 06
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Drugs 04
No bad habits 30
Source: Based on field survey, 2010.
Table 12 depicts the percentage distribution of incidence of diseases among rickshaw
pullers. Health is an important indicator of levels of socio- economic development and
determines the quality of life. Most of the rickshaw pullers have been reported to be suffering
from various diseases due to their unhygienic living conditions, arduous nature of work, poor
nutrition and bad habits. An examination of data given in Table 12 shows
Table 12
Percentage Distribution of Incidence of Diseases among Rickshaw Pullers in
Aligarh City
Incidence of Diseases Percent
Cough and cold 30
Joint pain 27
Back pain 21
Chest pain 20
Asthma 10
Gastroenteritis 05
Tuberculosis 04
Stone in gall bladder 04
Diabetes 03
Blood pressure 02
Source: Based on field survey, 2010.
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that 30 percent of the rickshaw pullers has cough and cold. The problem of joint, back, and
chest pains are very common among the rickshaw pullers, their proportion suffered by these
diseases have been recorded 27 percent, 21 percent, and 20 percent respectively. In addition,
10 percent of them have asthma, 9 percent tuberculosis and gastroenteritis and 9 percent
reported that they have the diseases like diabetes, blood pressure and stone in gall bladder.
The percentage distribution of types of problems faced by the rickshaw pullers has been
given in Table 13. The table depicts that lack of rickshaw stands in the city is the most
common problem faced by the rickshaw pullers. Out of total sampled rickshaw pullers, 28
percent reported about the problem of rickshaw stands because there is no rickshaw stand for
them in the whole city excluding one situated near the old bus stand without having the basic
facilities like drinking water and lavatory. The next major problem of rickshaw pullers is the
rude behavior of police and shopkeepers with them because 22 percent of them complained
that they have been either misbehaved/abused or beaten by traffic police/ shopkeepers or the
seats of their rickshaw were confiscated by them. Moreover, 18 percent rickshaw pullers
faced the problem like unsatisfactory fare and rude behaviors of passengers with them. While
13 percent had the problem of weakness and 7 percent reported about the inconvenience in
issuance of license & pass of the rickshaws. However, 25 percent of rickshaw pullers have no
problem in pulling their cycle rickshaws.
Table 13
Percentage Distribution of Types of Problems Faced by Rickshaw Pullers in
Aligarh City
Problems Percent
Lack of Rickshaw stands 28
Rude behaviors of Police and shopkeepers 22
Unsatisfactory fare 18
Weakness 13
Problem of License and pass 07
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Poor condition of Roads 05
Vision problem 05
No problem 25
Source: Based on field survey, 2010.
Conclusion and Suggestions
The overall analysis of the study reveals that the rickshaw pullers are one of the poorest
sections of the society, living in abject poverty but play a pivotal role in intra-city
transportation system. Neither is their working environment regulated nor their social security
issues are addressed. In rickshaw-pulling neither there is need to invest money nor to have
any special skill to drive it (Khan, 2010: 98). Unemployment, low and uncertain income,
debt, problem of housing, sanitation and health, lack of rickshaw stands, torture of police,
poor condition of roads, corruption in the issuance of rickshaws licenses, unsatisfactory fare
etc. are their major problems. Because of their miseries they generally indulge themselves in
bad habits like smoking, drinking, drug addiction, gambling, etc.
The major causes which compelled them to engage themselves in pulling rickshaws
are poverty, unemployment, large family size, family disintegration, illiteracy, desire of
work, debt, small size of land holdings etc. Majority of them suffer from cough and cold,
joint, back and chest pains, asthma, gastroenteritis and tuberculosis which lead to their
untimely deaths. They are also unaware about the governmental schemes launched for
poverty alleviation. Out of 100 rickshaw pullers interviewed, only 32 percent were literate.
They earn very low income, their average daily income ranges from rupees 100 to150. Their
housing conditions are very poor and most of them live in house made up of mud. They do
not have potable drinking water and their accessibility in infrastructural facilities is also very
poor.
Planners and governing authorities should recognize that rickshaws are non-polluting,
cheap and efficient mode of transportation which provides employment and self-sustenance
for thousands of people in Aligarh city. To save many of them from a dark desolate future
and to settle the tempestuous tides in their storm-wreaked lives, it is imperative to collaborate
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and mass-practice such solutions and find a right combination that take into account all
situations and vicissitudes (Jain, 2008).
Cycle rickshaws create traffic congestion on the roads of big cities (Replogle, 1991:
19), as a result many of the rickshaws are seized by the traffic police (Ahmed, 2005), which
has been creating the problem of unemployment (Ganguly, 1982: 1636). Therefore, it is
necessary that, separate tracks should be constructed for non-motorized vehicles and stop
seizing of cycle rickshaws. Moreover, corruption in the issuance of the licenses of cycle
rickshaws has further accentuated the problem of cycle rickshaw pullers because getting a
license is almost impossible for a poor person (Kishwar, 2006: 29). It can be checked by a
simple act of registration by any means and by the payment of a nominal fee to cover costs
for issue of a photo identification card or to replace the license quota system with on the spot
registration, as given in the prime minister's policy draft (Kishwar, 2001).
To economically empower the rickshaw pullers, declare all congested market areas
i.e., Amir Nishan, Centre Point, Dodhpur, Railway Road, Rasal Ganj, Phool Chauraha, etc.
No Entry Zones for motorized vehicles, because it can create more employment
opportunities to the rickshaw pullers and simultaneously reduce the traffic congestion and
environmental pollution in the city.
The rickshaw banks should be established in all the cities, in which the rickshaws are
still the main mode of transportation, to sanction the loans on easy installments to the
rickshaw pullers, so that, they can purchase their own rickshaws and also can get repaired
them without being dependent on money lenders. The rickshaw pulling is an arduous job and
cannot be continued forhours, so that being tired rickshaw pullers need rest, therefore, at least
one rickshaw stand with basic facilities like, drinking water and lavatory has to be
constructed near every main market, Aligarh Railway Junction, bus stands, etc.
Moreover, there should be the provision of dispensary, medical insurance at cheap
and easy premium and housing facilities for the families of rickshaw pullers, and special
drives have to be taken to improve the literacy level, with special emphasis on vocational
education for the children and other family members of the rickshaw pullers. However,
efficient extension services have to be provided that the rickshaw pullers and other
disadvantageous sections of the society may get benefited by the various governmental
poverty alleviation programmes.
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Notwithstanding, it is the need of hour to frame such policies and programmes that the
widening gap between the haves and have nots and extending regional imbalances in the level
of development may be minimized. Surely, it will pave the way in solving the problems like
poverty, hunger, poor health and hygiene, illiteracy and ignorance, begging, swarming
number of rickshaw pullers in cities, heavy influx of rural migrants in urban areas, slum and
squatter settlements, houselessness, child labour, gender discrimination, injustice, drug
addiction and alcoholism, environmental pollution, etc. in the developing countries of the
world.
Endnotes
i. Cycle rickshaw are the three wheeled manually pulled vehicles, used for the intra-city
transport system for transporting people and commodities from one place to another.
ii. Makeshift Dhabas are the temporary restaurants along the roads where people take
meals under the open sky.
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Aligarh Dainik Jagran: Rickshaw, June 12, 2009.
Begum, S. and Binayak, S.: Unsustainable Livelihoods, Health Shocks and Urban Chronic
Poverty: Rickshaw Pullers as a Case Study, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies,
CPRC Working Paper, Vol. 46, pp.1-26, 2004.
Chen, D.: Chunshen Jiuwen (Old Stories of Shanghai in Spring), Chenguang Yuekan She,
Taibei, p. 26, 1955.
Ganguly, S.: Calcuttas rickshaw-Pullers, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 17, No. 41,
p. 1636, 1982.
Jain, T.:Uplifting Rickshaw Pullers, 31 July. Available at:
http:/theviewspaper.net/uplifting-rickshaw-pullers (accessed 27 September 2010), 2008.
Khan, J. H. (2010): Socio-Economic and Structural Analysis of Internal Migration: A Micro
Level Study, Serials Publications, New Delhi, p. 98-112.
Kishwar, M. P.: Wheels of Misfortune, the License-quota-raid Raj and Rickshaw Pullers,
November. Available at: http://www.indiatogether.Org/manushi/rickshaw/ (accessed 28
October 2009), 2001.
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Kishwar, M. P.: Cycle Rickshaw: A Post Modern Vehicle-Challenging Governments
Warfare against Citizen Friendly, Eco-Friendly Rickshaws, Manushi, Vol.157, pp. 20-33,
2006.
Kishwar, M. P.: Urban Informal Sector: The Need for a Bottom-up Agenda of Economic
Reforms-Case Studies of Cycle Rickshaws and Street Vendors in Delhi, In India: Urban
Poverty Report, New Delhi: Oxford University Press, pp. 309-326, 2009.
Pacione, M.: Urban Geography: A Global Perspective, New York: Routledge, 2005.
Peng, S.: Sanhai No Jinrikisha Mondai (The Rickshaw Problem in Shanghai), Shina
Kenkyu, Vol. 37, pp.197-226, 1935.
Poirier, Y.: Rickshaw Bank in India: An Initiative for Alternative Employment, February,
Available at http://base.d-p-h.info/en/fiches/dph/fiche-dph 7718.html (accessed on 26 March,
2010), 2009.
Rajvanshi, A. K.: Electric and Improved Cycle Rickshaws as a Sustainable Transport
System for India, Current Science, Vol. 83, No. 6, pp. 1-6, 2002.
Replogle, M.: Non-Motorized Vehicles in Asia: Lessons for Sustainable Transport Planning
and Policy, Technical Report No.162, World Bank, Washington D.C, 1991.
Saito, T.: Jinrikisha (The Rickshaw), Sangyo Gijutsu Senta, Tokyo, Shenbao, Shanghai,
(1979).
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of California Press,1989.
The New Encyclopedia Britannica: Vol. 10, p. 58, 1993.
Warren, J.: The Singapore Rickshaw Pullers: The Social Organization of a Coolie
Occupation (1880-1940), Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, Vol. 16, No, 1, pp. 1-15, 1985.
Wright, T.: Shanghai Imperialists versus Rickshaw Racketeers: The Defeat of the 1934
Rickshaw Reforms, Modern China, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 76-111, 1991.
Zheng, Y.: Shaghai Jiuhua (Old Tales of Shanghai), Shanghai Wenhua Chubanshe,
Shanghai, Vol.2, p. 17, 1957.
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UDC:323.22:63-05(662.6)
NO RETREAT NO SURRENDER CONFLICT FOR SURVIVAL
BETWEEN FULANI PASTORALISTS AND FARMERS IN
NORTHERN NIGERIA
Isah Mohammed Abbass, PhD
Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria
Abstract:
Our herd is our life because to every nomad life is worthless without his cattle. What do you expect
from us when our source of existence is threatened? The encroachment of grazing fields and routes by farmers
is a call to war (HameSaidu, a Pastoralist, Wuse, 2009-IRIN, 2009).
The continuing Fulani Pastoralists militancy for the survival of their cattle makes fierce struggle and
violent conflicts with farmers inevitable. As Farmers continuously encroach into the grazing routes, they leave
the Fulani with no alternative to neither retreat nor surrender. The traditional practices that focus on the close
integration between raising of livestock and enhanced farming have posed serious dialectics in the dynamic
relationships between pastoralists and farmers in Northern Nigeria. Northern Nigeria is a plural society with the
potential for conflict. However, the conflicts between Fulani pastoralists and farmers in Northern Nigeria are
essentially economic in nature, irrespective of the religious, cultural and political colourations that might be
diluted to advance certain objectives.
Migrant pastoralists in Nigeria are made up of many ethnic groups and the largest being the Fulbe or
Fulani; constituting over 90%. The Fulani are well integrated amongst the sedentary Hausa farmers, who
emigrated into Northern Nigeria from the Senegambia Valley several centuries ago (Adebayo, 1995). The
availability of ecological, economic, environmental as well as social factors explain the need for posture, market
proximity and the reciprocal social relationship with the host community. A combination of these factors
increases the potential for conflicts in northern Nigeria (Blench, 1994, Tolnab, 2001, Fabusoro, 2006).
Keywords: Pastoralists, Farmers, Northern Nigeria
The Setting and Framework of Conflict in Pastoralism and Sedentarism
Conflict is largely a phenomenon of plural societies. In Nigeria, conflict has become
a very widespread occurrence; manifesting in all spheres of human endeavors. A study of
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major sources of conflicts between the Fulani pastoralists and farmers shows that land related
issues, especially over grazing fields, account for the highest percentage of the conflicts. In
other words, struggles over the control of economically viable lands cause more tensions and
violent conflicts among communities. As Pastoralists and cultivators have coexisted for a
long time, the complexities over the land-use system have dramatically changed and thus
become the dependent variables in conflicts between herdsmen and farmers.
The Fulani indisputably represent a significant component of the Nigerian economy.
They constitute the major breeders of cattle, the main source of meat, the most available and
cheap source of animal proteins consumed by Nigerians. The Fulani own over 90% of the
nations livestock population which accounts for one-third of agricultural GDP and 3.2% of
the nations GDP (Eniola, 2010:3). Furthermore, the contribution of the Fulani to the local
food chain and national food security cannot be overstressed. The Fulani, with their
dominance in the Sahel region, are the best known and most numerous of all the pastoral
groups in Nigeria. The traditional and unique Fulani encampment (ruga) consisting of
temporary structures made of stalks, closely knit family members and livestock is the natural
habitat of the orthodox Fulbe settlement.
The expansion of Fulbe pastoralism into Nigeria is unknown. It is suggested that
Fulbe began to settle on the plains of Bauchi Emirate transcending onto the grassland of the
Jos Plateau (Morrison, 1982, cited in Blench, 2010:4). Conflicts between pastoralists and
farmers have existed since the beginnings of agriculture and increased or decreased in
intensity and frequency depending on economic, environmental and other factors. For
example, increases in the herd sizes, due to improved conditions of the cattle, compelled the
pastoralists to seek for more pastures beyond their limited range. Climate change has
constituted a great threat by putting great pressures on the land and thus provoking conflicts
between them. However, improvements in human health and population have enhanced a
much greater pressure on land. Since the 1980s therefore, there has been a marked expansion
of cultivation of the fadama (reverine and valley-bottom) areas. This means that both the
farmers and pastoralists have engaged in fierce struggles for access to such valuable lands
which, more often than not, result in increased conflicts and violence.
Important features of the current harmony and disharmony in Pastoralism and
sedentarism, reflect enhanced sedentarisation and increased Pastoralism leading to constant
conflict with agrarian societies (Blench, 2010:1). Interdependent relationships between
Fulani and farmers, based on exchange of products, can be sustained if the pressure on
resources is neutralized and mutual terms agreed. Hence, the higher the degree of pressure
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on vital resources, the greater the degree of conflicts. The degree of harmony and conflict
between Fulani and farmers provokes a certain degree of perceptions, particularly in the
patterns of the conflicts and corporation, leading to the inevitability of the breakdown of law
and order (Blench, 1984).
The complexity of pastoral resource management hinges on the unstable claims and
counter claims on pasture, water and other resources. This complexity is also based on
certain principles of flexibility and reciprocity. Land is the major resource base of the
pastoralists but is not an individually fixed asset with specific use and accessibility (Sandford
and Habtu, 2000, Thebaud and Batterbury, 2001, Nori, etal 2005). Since the pastoral Fulani
wander ceaselessly with a herd of cattle and constantly explore new terrains in harsh and
treacherous environment, they naturally surrender to nature with primary objective of
securing the security of their animals. The security of pastoral livelihood depends on the
condition of their herd and grazing ecosystem which symbiotically relies on the availability
of razing pasture, watering holes and other ecological, socio-economic and safety conditions.
Issues bordering on local community security, safety and development are paramount
in the enhancement of governance and increase or decrease in agitation for control of
resources as well as encroachment of the rights of others. All these have implications for
survival and struggles between or amongst communities. Again, local resistance to state
policies is central in resource-use through strengthening of community capacity to manage
resources and deal with conflicts. Hence, security is a framework for intervention and
conflicts. Since insecurity gives ways to conspiracy, conflicts are inevitable. The object of
security is to primarily advance the well-being and possessions of the persons involved; while
the survival of the state is secondary. In other words, when the character and nature of the
state do not seem to protect the security of the citizens, their freedom and choices completely
shift away from the state to individuals or groups as the foci of security.
When the state pays a lip service to the security of the means of livelihood of its
citizens, like cattle and farmlands; and there is no sufficient guarantee for safety, fear and
suspicions amongst them emerge. The citizens exercise no restraints in individually or
collectively protecting the security and safety of their resources and lives. Since safety and
security have become scarce commodities, only those that can afford them protect them with
all the means available, at the detriment of others irrespective of the risks involved. As the
state cannot regulate the mutual coexistence of its citizens in the harmonious sharing of the
competed resources, the parties may have to resolve to struggle among themselves with no
retreat, nor surrender and for the survival of the fittest.
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The goal of human development is to evolve and foster understanding, mutual
respects and the principle of give and take, among others. This is to enhance security and
safety for all in order to directly participate and be inclusively involved to make life better,
dynamic and respond to changing circumstances. This should be deliberately designed to
avoid, mitigate or neutralize conflicts with the objective of accommodating and sustaining
collective interest for security and safety. Aspects of consensus building and mutual
respects in promoting peace, security and safety makes communities to strategically organize,
control and manage its resources efficiently without resorting to conflicts. This involves
proactive mobilization to foster social cohesion and responsibility for collective action on any
issue that threatens the security and safety of the community. Since the root causes of
conflicts are traceable to and manifested on ethnic and religious differences, the political
economy of the state constitutes the architect in these incidences. The failure of the state, for
example to resolve the settler/ indigene identity and the inherent struggles over resources
can be adduced to have brought dangerous dimensions of economic and political elements in
the Fulani pastoralists and farmers conflicts (Fiki and Lee, B. 2004: 24-48).
Northern Nigeria: A Background
The area known as Northern Nigeria serves as the melting pot of the modern
Nigerian Federation. Northern Nigeria therefore serves as the nexus of considerable social,
economic, political and cultural struggles. The strategic importance of Northern Nigeria in
commerce, trade, religious activities and thoughts has spanned a long period of time. These
activities enhanced great contacts with ancient empires and kingdoms in African,
Mediterranean and throughout the Islamic World. As a geographical region of Nigeria,
Northern Nigeria is much more vast and arid and of course less densely populated than the
south. The people of Northern Nigeria are largely Muslims and many of them are Hausa or
transformed into Hausa. Apart from Muslims, there are other religious or cultural groups.
Northern Nigeria became a British colony in 1900 under the Northern protectorate. Both the
Northern and Southern protectorates were amalgamated in 1914 to form the Nigerian
Federation The modern Northern Nigeria is currently composed of 19 states with Abuja; the
Federal Capital Territory.
Agriculture is the main stay of the Northern Nigerian economy, even though there are
other mineral resources. The sustainability of agriculture in Northern Nigerian economy
requires a strategic balance in the ecological and socio-economic activities as well as political
considerations. In Northern Nigeria, rainfall occurs seasonally with a pronounced dry season.
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The seasonal rainfall and prolonged dry season bring about dynamics in the ecosystem and
sour relationships resulting in a sharp division between the sedentary farmers and the
nomadic pastoralists.
Northern Nigeria is a plural society composed of large ethnic groups with the
immigration of several new ones. In addition, Northern Nigeria is also made up of Islamic
culture that mingles with a variety of traditional and other cultures (Akinwumi, etal, and
207:117-212). These varieties of cultures create potentials areas of conflicts with every
group projecting its interests in resources allocation, resource management, and resource
control as well as claim rights over different resources. The plurality of the society is
therefore related with recurring conflicts in the region ethnic, religious, economic, political
among others. The implications of the conflicts have brought about high degrees of loss of
human, animal and material resources.
Conflict for Survival: Security over Farmland and Cattle
The types of conflicts for survival between the Fulani pastoralists and farmers in
Northern Nigeria vary in form and intensity from one community to another. Social and
economic factors continue to provoke violent conflicts among the Fulani pastoralists and
farmers. The intensity and variations of the conflicts largely depend on the nature and type of
the user groups where the pastoralists graze. These conflicts have constituted serious threats
to the means of survival and livelihoods of both the farmers and pastoralists and what both
groups are tenaciously protecting and projecting. The conflicts, through provocative claims
over access rights to farmland and cattle routes (labi), have become ubiquitous and seem to
have defied solutions.
In order to develop an effective, efficient and acceptable system for managing these
conflicts, there is the need to appreciate and identify the cultural issues associated with the
vulnerable groups (Otite& Albert (eds) 1999:1-30). In addition, there is the need to
comprehend how the farmers and Fulani on the one hand and the community and the state on
the other have viewed such conflicting issues and the strategies put in place to ameliorate or
even resolve them. Until the sources of such conflicts are clearly identified, understood,
managed and resolved, such incidences will continue to show their ugly heads at the slightest
provocation.
Various cases of conflicts in Northern Nigeria involving the Fulani pastoralists and
farmers consist of significant variables in economic, social, political and ecological
parameters. These conflicts occur mostly in areas of stiff competition for grazing land and
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farming but the degree of intensity differs from state to state depending on the ecological
location and the communities involved. Even though droughts and climate change in
Northern Nigerian have worsen the trends of Fulani pastoralist relationships with farmers, the
decrease in the annual rainfall and shortening of the wet season have added inputs to the
intensity and magnitude of Fulani exodus southwards. These movements and the search for
posture land have caused widespread conflicts and destruction of human and animal lives as
well as farmlands with adverse implications for the political economy.
The exacerbation of vulnerability and conflicts in Northern Nigeria between Fulani
pastoralists and farmers is not only caused by climate change but a combination of factors.
For example, with the expansion of population, the rate of food production would naturally
increase and to meet that increasing demand, it is natural for the farmers to encroach into
marginal lands that had been the traditional pasture routes for the cattle. This has therefore
heightened struggle between livestock and agricultural production which, more often than
not, result in the escalation of conflicts (Nyong, 2010:37). Hence, as population grows, more
land is being cultivated and less is available for posture; forcing Fulani to migrate and tramp
on crops cultivated by farmers.
Bruijin and Dijk (1995) and Nori, etal,(2005) have assessed the sources of
vulnerability in fulbe pastoral system. It is shown that both the sources they control (animals)
and do not control (land, water, market, politics) have direct and significant impacts on their
livelihoods and the host communities. Table 1 exhibits the Fulbe perception on the sources
and degree of vulnerability in their system. First and foremost, the greatest threat to Fulani
livelihood is nothing other than the insecurity of the cattle due primarily to prior accessibility
to pasture land and water points. This is followed by cattle diseases as exhibited in Table 1.
Table 1: Perception on sources and level of vulnerability (insecurity)
Highly
vulnerable
Vulnerable Fairly
vulnerable
Not
vulnerable
Sources of
Vulnerability/Insecurity
Poor access to land for grazing XXXXXX
Water inadequacy XXXXXX
Cattle diseases XXXXXX
Poor veterinary services XXXXXX
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Government actions and inactions XXXXXX
Poor educational level XXXXXXX
Sociocultural problems XXXXXXX
Conflict with host XXXXXX
Source: Adapted from Fabusoro, E.2007 Key issues in Livelihoods Security.
Clashes between farmers and pastoralists in Northern Nigeria are ubiquitous and on
the increase. These clashes generally centre on access to and competition for grazing land
and water. As pasture land shrinks, sequel to taking over of such lands by farmers, conflicts
become inevitable. It is difficult, if not impossible, for the Fulani pastoralists to move and
graze without veering into crop fields. More than 60% of the reported cases of conflicts
occurred during the dry season. These conflicts, more often than not, are concentrated
around the resource-endowed locations like the fertile flood plains, river valleys and other
water points which involve the right to ownership and access.
According to 2009 official report of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Water
Resources, Nigeria has officially demarcated 4125 grazing reserves or routes. Out of this
number, only one third is put in use, whereas 270 grazing reserves have been put into
cultivation. In order to curb farmers-pastoralists clashes, the federal government in
September 2009 carried out demarcation of a grazing route running through the central states
of Nasarawa, Benue and Plateau. Other grazing routes also marked out and demarcated were
started across Katsina and Bauchi States, spanning across Abuja. Further grazing routes were
also demarcated from Sokoto in the Northwest to Oyo State in the Southwest as well as
another 2,000km grazing route from Adamawa State in the Northeast to Calabar in the Niger
Delta (UN-IRIN,2009).
Bauchi and Gombe States are situated within the Northeast pastoral zone of Northern
Nigeria. These states are the focal points of reference in the National Fadama Development
Projects (NFDPs). Hence, various cases of conflicts emerged and because of the incessant
clashes between the farmers and pastoralists, it is necessary to examine the causes, dynamics
and consequences of such incidences as they affect the nature of the State in Nigerias
federation. Between 1996 and 2002, Bauchi and Gombe States respectively recorded 28 and
112 reported incidences. The recorded human losses for the two states during the same
period were 101 and 20 respectively. However, large animal losses and crop damage were
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equally recorded in addition to other huge injuries inflicted on human, animal, plant and
others (Ajuwon, 2004).
The dimension of militancy in the conflicts is associated with the advent of the
aggressive Udawa and Bokoloji pastoralists which further led to the emergence and
introduction of guns and other sophisticated weapons in the conflicts as well as the use of
new communication devices, accompanied with banditry. In all these areas, non-adherence
to the grazing reserves for cattle, which have continuously been encroached by farmers, is the
primary cause of the conflicts. All these have produced adverse consequences in the
destruction of villages, settlements, crops, and irrigation facilities, human and animal lives.
In Bauchi, for example, areas mostly affected included Jamaare, Gamawa, Kuddu, Misau,
Zaki and Kirfe Local Government Areas, among others.
Within the Northwest and North central pastoral regions of Northern Nigeria, the
incidence of serious cases of conflicts for survival between pastoralists and farmers also led
to loss of lives and destruction of properties with the emergence of insecurity due to the
continuous desire for vengeance by the parties involved. In Jigawa State, the conflicts
between the Hausa farmers and Fulani rearers, is a phenomenon that continues to occur in
Miga, Kaugama, Birnin Kudu, Garki and Maigatari local government areas with loss of lives,
properties, cattle as well as various degrees of injuries. The use of guns and other weapons
have added a new dimension to the conflicts alongside the intrusion of camel pastoralists
from Niger Republic (Pyramid Trust, July 17, 2009).
In Nasarawa State, the perennial conflicts for survival between cattle herdsmen and peasant
farmers over the control and access to resources are increasing. For instance, the UdeniGida
village incidence of Nasarawa local government area turned bloody with more than 30 people
dead, with many houses, crops and other properties set ablaze (Daily Trust, December 21,
2009). The cause of the violence was due to the destruction of rice farmlands by cattle. The
use of guns and other weapons has become very rampant by the parties involved.
Sometimes, gunmen are constantly recruited and paid to launch attack on either of the divide.
This situation is common throughout Northern Nigeria and must be directly connected with
global warming and climate change which automatically put enormous pressures on land and
other resources.
These pressures have caused regular conflicts for survival in Gwagwada district of
Chikun local government area of Kaduna State. Due to climate change therefore, pasture
portions already allocated to herdsmen dried up which led to cattle invasion of farmland by
destroying crops and streams where the communities use as drinking water (Okpi, 2010:1-2) .
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In the North Central Zone, the conflicts have assumed religious and ethnic dimensions. In
this zone, due to the nature of the conflicts, Fulani pastoralists were forced out of the areas or
prevented entry. These conflicts have degenerated into full scale wars with the Plateau state
governments involvement. In 2002, Pastoralists were driven out of Bassa local government
of Kogi State after bloody encounter with farmers. Between 1996 and 2002, 49 cases of
conflicts between farmers and pastoralists in Kogi State were reported (Ajuwon, 2004).
In Plateau State and indeed all over Northern Nigeria, pastoral fulbe are in peril,
sequel to the eruptions of the ethnic-religious conflicts. In 2009, hundreds of nomadic Fulani
pastoralists were expelled from Wase local government area. Apart from the conflict going
out of control, the malignant conflict for survival has also witnessed killing of livestock
through poisoning of the pasture land and water points especially in Heipag, BarikinLadi
local government area where over 70 cattle perished (Daily Trust, July 17,2010). It should be
stressed that since the 19
th
century, pastoral fulbe had been attached to the Plateau. Fulani
pastoralism in Jos area had thus been well entrenched but in recent times turned into
increasing pressure due to increasing and steep struggle between the fulbe and other
sedentary groups for control and ownership of land and other resources.
Hence, the transformation of the relationships between the crop cultivators and
pastoral fuble spontaneously changed from that of complementarily and trust to hostility,
violence and wars. These have been endemic all over Northern Nigeria. With religion,
politics and ethnicity becoming interwoven, the conflicts over scarce resources have become
more fierce and deadly. Hence, the contours of these resource-connected conflicts are more
often than not manipulated along religious, ethnic and sectional divide thus making them
more intricate, complex and difficult to resolve. The causes of these conflicts in these pastoral
corridors thus range from droughts and erratic patterns of rainfalls and the concentration of
farming and grazing to the fadamaareas particularly in Kebbi State.
The state projects on fadamaprogrammes (NFDP) have been viewed as a direct threat
to pastoralists for their dry season grazing. Upland grazing areas are in a poor state and
cannot support teaming livestock; leading to the shrinkage of land use sources for both
farmers and pastoralists. The movement of Fulani Pastoralists for pasture into various parts of
Northern Nigeria has been accompanied with attendant challenges and opportunities for both
the farmers and pastoralists. In addition, this movement has brought about tension, conflicts
and wars leading to further emergence of the state of insecurity, political instability and
socio-economic quagmire.
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The state has continued to play prominent roles in the escalation of conflicts over
land on a number of factors. For example, the indigene and settler phenomena have not
been addressed and settled, the issues of unresolved grazing land and water spots for the
survival of farmers and pastoralists as well as other corresponding matters on socio-economic
relationships between the two warring groups (Tenuche, &Infatimesun, 2009:361). In the
entire North Central region, there are a number of factors that provoke the escalation of
conflicts. Land related conflicts account for about 50% of the entire conflicts in the region
whereas Fulani-farmers conflicts account for about 40% of the conflicts on land related
matters.
North east Pastoral corridors are also replete with conflicts of survival between
farmers and fulbe pastoralists. In 2009, hundreds of pastoral fulbe were expelled from
Demboa local government of Borno State. However, the invasion of Tipto, Kisa, Samne,
Bangi, Wurke and Gure communities in Lamurde local government area of Adamawa State
by cattle rearers with guns left unconfirmed number of dead and injured persons with over
2,000 rendered homeless due to the destruction of villages (New Nigerian, February 1, 2010).
The political economy of land use in Nigeria is inherently biased against pastoral fulbe
interest within the system of resource use.
Around the Mambila Plateau in Taraba State, there exists a century old conflicts
between the pastoralists and farmers. With Fulbe migration since colonial era into the thickly
grassy land on the Mambila Plateau, grazing for cattle can best be described as ideal. The
area is known to be a land of great diversity in human and other resources and therefore ideal
for its ecological characteristics: palatable grasses, adequate rainfall and less threat to animal
diseases. There were sporadic incidents of conflicts between the Mambila farmers and
pastoralists as far back as 1923 when fulbe allowed their cattle to trample crops (Migeod
1925: 164-6 cited in Blench, 2010:4). Certain constitutional and political changes in Nigeria
led to corresponding changes in the fulbe-farmers relationship in Mambila. Hence, the
obstruction of the Fulani annual movement to valleys in and around the areas led to the
outbreak of violence in the 1980s and 1990s culminating in the violent clash in 2002 with
burning down of Mambila villages among others (Blench,2010:4-5).
Implications of the Conflict on the Nigerian Federation
The eruption of violent conflicts between the Fulani pastoralists and farmers as
manifested, in many forms and dimensions have wide range of implications on the Nigerian
federation. However, the intensity, scope and frequency of such conflicts have shown the
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fragility of unity of ethinic nationalities in Nigeria. The tenacity to maintain no retreat and
no surrender by all parties in the conflict indicates the porousity of Nigerian federation. The
conflict prone areas in fierce struggle and competition over the shared resources undermine
the relative peace, stability hitherto enjoyed; with threats to social order. The conflicts have
brought about fundamental problems of human security in the region particularly with regard
to humanitarian crises.
These challenges are due to policy implications of the political economy with the
formulated policies designed ostensibly to reduce and manage the conflicts, but ironically
turned to escalate them the more. This development has put the MDGs under serious threat
due to struggle for natural resources under contention. Conflicts in a federal structure can be
effectively and efficiently managed when there is a sound and clear policy to respect the
feelings of each group, with give and take devices. Mismanagement of these conflicts shows
that there is a weak institutional capacity in Nigerias federation to manage them right from
traditional to governmental institutions.
The essence of federalism is good governance, collective security and safety for the
constituent units. Since human security is paramount, the elimination of potential threats of
existence and fear of the deprivation as well as and enhancement of collective will must be
sufficiently guaranteed (Elaigwu&Akindele (eds), 1996:87-900). Conflicts in Nigeria since
the 1960s have fundamentally undermined the stability and development of the Nigerian
State and economy. The social, economic and political tensions created as a result of
numerous escalations of violent conflicts have raised fundamental national questions for the
survival of the Nigerian State. The failure of the state to manage and resolve such conflicts
has put a question mark on the suitability or relevance of the federal structure to the Nigerian
reality. The identity or resource and political based conflicts have become the recurring
dismal in the failure of the Nigerian federation.
The woeful failure of the Nigerian State in enhancing security to Nigerians is
breeding mistrust and lack of patriotism amongst Nigerians and leaders. This has cast dark
clouds over the survival of the federation. The harvest of conflicts, especially the stand-off
between Pastoralists and farmers, must have been cultivated and irrigated by the leaders and
followers in varying forms and magnitude. This has shown the low level of cohesion and
fragility amongst numerous ethnic nationalities sequel to the construction and constitution of
the Nigerian federal structure leading to the ubiquitness of instability of the failed Nigerian
State and federalism.
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Conclusion and Recommendations
Recurring scramble for scarce ecosystem resources has degenerated into violent
conflicts in Northern Nigeria between fulbe pastoralists and farmers. These conflicts have
become more intense, widespread and destructive. Since most of the fulbe pastoralists do not
own or possess the rights to land, they therefore depend absolutely on open land to feed their
cattle, culminating in intense pressure on land and frequency of conflicts. Ecological, climate
change and of course government policies on agriculture, especially the all-year
fadamafarming, are threats to pastoralist access to pasture. However, additional farms
acquired and encroachments of traditional cattle routes have drastically reduced the grazing
space for the livestock to access pasture areas and water points. Furthermore, the use of
police and courts to resolve conflicts between fulbe pastoralists and farmers by government
has been ineffective. This has contributed to the frequency of the clashes especially since the
1980s sequel to the democratic dispensation, introduction of modern weapons in the conflict
and communication devices as well as the use of bandits in terrorists activities. All these
have exacerbated chronic insecurity that have encouraged the conflicting parties to take
responsibility for their own security and to defend themselves, which is a threat to the
sustainability of the federation.
The failure of the government to prevent the escalation of conflicts between Fulani
pastoralists and farmers in Northern Nigeria is traceable to the above issues, among others. It
is therefore recommended that for harmonious coexistence and security, government must
make policies that are designed to enhance the Fulani pastoralists by ensuring that they secure
rights to land use in order to reduce insecurity and ameliorate the spate of conflicts. This
will, among other things, bring about peaceful coexistence between the Fulani pastoralists
and host communities. This also enhances the security of the cattle, to access grazing space
or resources without pouncing on farmers crops.
For a sustainable peace to reign, there must be a deliberate design to enlighten and
mobilize the parties in conflict to understand the ecology and the resources available in the
localities. This opens a window for interdependence and complemetaries among groups in
the optimal use of the resources for collective benefit and equitable access. Thus, the place
and space must be exploited for common interest with effective regulation of activities,
behavior and conduct. This scenario can only come about if herders keep to agreed routes
and farmers avoid farming across them with stern government policy and strict compliance.
In addition, factors associated with the conflicts must be properly appreciated and
managed by appropriate institutions involved in the conflict resolutions. Hence, local
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governance in the conflict must not be over looked. Traditional strategies may be combined
with the emerging ones. This relates on how communities create local structures and
networks for the purposes of engagement, participation, inclusiveness, mutual partnership
and transformation of the environment through equity in resource utilization. As safety and
security generate trust, mutual benefits are automatically derived. However, structures
created for and by communities generate networks and feedback by ensuring that people
relate to each other amicably for common use of resources and ensure a safety first principle
in cattle grazing movements and pasture as well as crop production. Understanding the
peculiarities and exploiting opportunities inherent in the Northern Nigeria can produce
greater prospects for effective, efficient and sustainable conflict resolution strategies in
enhancing the farmer-nomad relationship.
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UDC:519.86:620.92(54)
MULTIVARIATE GRANGER CAUSALITY BETWEEN
ECONOMIC GROWTH, ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION,
EXPORTS AND REMITTANCE FOR THE PANEL OF THREE
SAARC COUNTRIES
Md. Sharif Hossain, PhD
Associate Professor of Econometrics; Department of Economic Engineering, Faculty of
Economics, Kyushu University, Japan
Abstract
This paper empirically examines the dynamic causal relationship between economic growth, electricity
consumption, export values and remittance for the panel of three SAARC countries using the time series data for
the period 1976- 2009. Using four different panel unit root tests it is found that all the panel variables are
integrated of order 1. From the Johansen Fisher panel conintegration and Kao tests it is found that all the panel
variables are cointegrated. The panel Granger F test results support that there is only bidirectional short-run
causal relationship between economic growth and export values but there is no evidence of long-run causal
relationship. It is found that the long-run elasticity of economic growth with respect to electricity consumption
and remittance are higher than short run elasticity. This means that over time higher electricity consumption and
higher remittance from manpower supply in the panel of SAARC countries give rise to more economic growth.
Keywords: Panel unit root tests, Panel cointegration tests, Panel Granger causality tests,
Short-run and long-run elasticities
1. Introduction
Economic growth of the SAARC countries especially Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and
Sri-Lanka, is closely related to its energy consumption, export values, and remittance receipts
from manpower supply. However this does not necessarily imply a causal relationship
between them. The direction, strength and stability of the relationship between economic
growth, energy consumption, export values and remittance play a significant role in designing
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different policies that are associated with economic growth and energy consumption. The
direction and policy implications for the causal relationship between economic growth,
electricity consumption, export values and workers remittance can be classified as follows. If
unidirectional causal relationship from electricity consumption, and export values to
economic growth is found, indicates that any restriction on the use of energy which
negatively affects the export values leads to a reduction of economic growth. Thus about this
negative effect on economic growth that caused by a policy of restriction of energy use in
order to slow down the rate of climate change grows by reducing GHGs, many SAARC
countries specially India as a rising country will be worried. On the other hand if
unidirectional causal relationship from economic growth to electricity consumption or from
economic growth to export values is found, any restriction on the use of electricity has very
little or no adverse impacts on economic growth. A bi-directional causal relationship implies
that both the variables are jointly determined and will affect at the same time. If no causal
relationship between these variables is found, the hypothesis of neutrality holds indicates that
any restriction on energy use will not work as a barrier for economic development of the
panel.
It is well known to us political crises are going on in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia and some
Middle East countries namely Syria, Iraq, Iran etc. Due to the political crises the workers
remittance receipt will be declined in different SAARC countries. If unidirectional causality
is found from remittance to economic growth in the panel of SAARC countries, indicates that
the political crises negatively affect the economic growth of SAARC countries. If
unidirectional causality is found from economic growth to remittance, economic growth will
not be negatively affected due to the political crisis. If bi-directional causal relationship
between economic growth and remittance is found implies that both the variables are jointly
determined and will affect at the same time due to the political crises. Now-a-days, energy
efficiency measures will play a vital role as energy savings as a result most of the rising
countries including India all over the world fear that such policy measure will harm their
economic development. Also a major part of the GDP of different SAARC countries
including Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan comes from the manpower supply in Middle East
and other countries. Thus the most import question arises whether the new energy policy and
policy for reducing the GHGs emissions and also political crises in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia,
and Middle East will strike the economic growth of SAARC countries. One of the best
known methods is to investigate the short-run and long-run causal relationships between
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economic growth, energy consumption, export values and workers remittance for a panel of
SAARC countries using the time series data.
That is why in this paper the principal purpose is made to investigate the dynamic
causal relationships between economic growth, electricity consumption, export values and
workers remittance for a panel of three SAARC countries namely Bangladesh India and
Pakistan using the time series data from 1976 to 2009. Due to the data problem other SAARC
countries cannot be included for this empirical study. On the basis of the modern
econometrics techniques, the dynamic causal relationships between electricity consumption
and economic growth are examined. The organizational structure of the paper is as: Section 2
discusses the literature review; Section 3discusses data sources and descriptive statistics;
Section 4 provides econometric modeling framework with empirical analysis and finally
section 5 concludes with a summary of the main findings and policy implications.
2. Literature review
The causal relationships between two variables economic growth and energy
consumption are investigated widely in economic literature. The enormous amount of
empirical literatures to examine the causal relationship between economic growth and energy
consumption fall into four categories; (i) no causal relationship between economic growth
and energy consumption (ii) unidirectional causality from economic growth to energy
consumption, (iii) unidirectional causality from energy consumption to economic growth and
(iii) bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption. In applied
econometrics most recent causality studies have tended to focus by using panel data and
employing panel cointegration and panel-base VAR and VEC models which provide more
powerful tests compared to a time series approach to investigate causal relationship between
two variables X and Y. The panel estimation can take heterogeneous country effect into
account in a single estimation by allowing for individuals specific variable. Moreover, the
model estimation allows greater degrees of freedom. As far it is known that a few panel
causality studies are conducted in the fields of economics, finance and energy. The direction
of causality between economic growth and energy/electricity consumption of different time
series and panel studies are summarized below in Table 1.
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Table 1: Summary of literature review on causality between energy consumption and
economic growth
Previous Studies Countries Time
Period
Variables Methodology Results
Time Series and
Panel Studies
Yang (2000) Taiwan 1954-
1997
E, Y Hsiaos Granger (B) EY
Asafu & Adjaye
(2000)
Thailand 1971-
1995
E, Y, P Cointegration (M) EY
Aqueel & Butt
(2001)
Pakistan 1955-
1996
E, Y Hsiaos Granger (B) EY
Ghosh (2002) India 1950-
1997
E, Y Cointegration (B) YE
Soytas and Sari
(2003)
G-7 :
Argentina, Turkey
France, German,
Japan
Italy, South
Korea,
1960-
1995
E, Y Cointegration
Granger (B) EY
EY
YE
Morimoto
&Hope(2004)
Sri Lanka 1960-
1998
E, Y Granger (B) EY
Wolde-Rufael
(2004)
Shanghai 1952-
1999
E, Y Toda & Yamamotos
Granger (B)
EY
Jumbe (2004) Malawi 1970-
1999
E, Y Cointegration (B) EY
Altinay &
Karagol (2005)
Turkey 1950-
2000
E, Y Dolado-Lukepohls
Granger (B)
EY
Narayan &
Smyth (2005)
Australia 1966-
1999
E, Y, EM Cointegration (M) YE
Lee (2005) Panel of 1971- E, Y Panel Unit Root YE
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18Countries
1
2002 (LLC, IPS, Hadri)
Panel cointegration
FMOLS (Pedroni)
Panel Causality
(Granger (B), GMM)
Lee & Chang
(2007)
Taiwan 1954-
2003
E, Y Cointegration (B) EY
Yoo (2005) South Korea 1970-
2002
E, Y Cointegration (B) EY
Al-Iriani (2006) Panel of 6 GCC
countries
2
1971-
2002
E, Y Panel unit root (IPS),
Panel cointegration
(Pedroni),
Panel causality
Granger , GMM (B).
YE
Wolde-Rufael
(2006):
16 African
Countries:
Algeria ,Congo
RP, Kenya ,
Sudan
Benin , Congo
,Tunisia
Cameroon,
Ghana, Nigeria ,
Senegal, Zambia ,
Zimbabwe
Egypt , Gabon ,
Morocco
1971-
2001
E, Y Toda & Yamamotos
Granger (B) EY
EY
EY
EY
EY
EY
EY
EY
Yoo (2006) 4 Asian Countries
Indonesia,
Thailand
Malaysia,
Singapore
1971-
2002
E, Y Hsiaos Granger (B)
YE
EY
Chen et al. 10 Asian 1971- E, Y Cointegration,
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(2007) countries:
China, Hong
Kong
Taiwan, Thailand
Indonesia
India, Malaysia
Philippines
Korea, Singapore
2001 Granger causality (B) EY
EY
EY
YE
YE
EY
Chontanawat et
al (2007)
Panel of 30
OECD
3
Panel of 78 non-
OECD
4
1971-
2003
E, Y Panel unit root (LLC,
IPS),
Panel cointegration,
FMOLS (Pedroni),
Panel causality
(Granger, EG). (B)
EY
EY
Chontanawat et
al (2007)
Panel of G7
Countries
5
Panel of 12
AsianDeveloping
Countries
6
1960-
2003
1971-
2003
E, Y Panel unit root (LLC,
IPS),
Panel cointegration,
FMOLS (Pedroni),
Panel causality
(Granger, EG). (B)
YE
EY
Chen et al.
(2007)
Panel of 7 Asian
countries
7
1971-
2002
E, Y Cointegration,
Granger causality (B)
YE
Halicioglu
(2007)
Turkey 1968-
2005
E, Y Bounds testing
approach and Granger
causality(B)
EY
Joyeux and
Ripple (2007)
Panel of 7 East
Indian
Ocean Countries
8
1971-
2001
E, Y Panel Unit root and
cointegration (B)
ElecY
Lee & Chang
(2007)
Panel of 22 DCs
9
Panel of 18
LDCs
10
1965-
2002
1971-
2002
E, Y Panel causality
(Granger, GMM).(B)
EY
YE
Mehrara (2007) Panel of 11 Oil 1971- E, Y Panel unit root (LLC, YE
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exporting
countries
11
2002 IPS),
Panel cointegration,
FMOLS (Pedroni),
Panel causality
(Granger, EG). (B)
Narayan and
Singh (2007)
Fiji 1971-
2002
E, Y Bounds testing
approach to
cointegration (B)
EY
Squalli (2007) OPEC:
Algeria, Iraq,
Kuwait
Libya
Iran, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia
Indonesia,
Nigeria, UAE
1980-
2003
E, Y Bounds testing
approach, Toda
&Yamamotos
Granger (B)
YE
YE
YE
EY
EY
EY
Naranyan et al.
(2008)
G7 countries
USA
The rest
1970-
2002
1960-
2002
E, Y Structural vector
autoregressive
(SVAR), (B)
EY
EY
Huang et al.
(2008)
Panel of 19 low
income
Countries
12
Panel of 23 lower
middle income
countries
13
Panel of 15 upper
middle income
countries
14
Panel of 20 high
income
countries
15
1972-
2002
GMM-system
approach (B)
EY
YE
YE
YE
European Scientific Journal January edition vol. 8, No.1 ISSN: 1857 7881 (Print) e - ISSN 1857- 7431
354
Narayan &
Smyth (2009)
Panel of 6 Middle
Eastern
Countries
16
1974-
2002
E, Y, EX Panel unit root
(Breitung),
FMOLS(Westerlund),
Panel causality
(Granger, EG). (M)
EY
Hossain (2011) Panel of 9 NIC
17
1971-
2007
E, Y,
CO2,
UR,
OPEN
Panel unit root (LLC,
IPS, MW, Choi)
Panel cointegration,
Panel causality
(Granger, EG,
GMM). (M)
YE
Hossain & Saeki
(2011)
Panel of 6 South
Asian countries
18
1971-
2007
E, Y Panel unit root ( IPS,
MW, Choi)
Panel cointegration,
Panel causality
(Granger, EG,
GMM). (B)
EY
Note: refers to no causality; refers to unidirectional causality; refers to bi-
directional causality; B denotes bivariate model, M denotes multivariate model.
1: This includes South Korea, Singapore, Hungary, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Mexico,
Peru, Venezuela, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Philippines, Thailand, Pakistan, Sri Lanka,
Ghana and Kenya.
2: This panel includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates (UAE).
3: This includes Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland,
Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway,
Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States.
4: This includes Albania, Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Benin, Bolivia,
Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Chile,
Colombia, China, Congo, Congo Rep., Costa Rica, Cote dIvoire, Cuba, Cyprus,
European Scientific Journal January edition vol. 8, No.1 ISSN: 1857 7881 (Print) e - ISSN 1857- 7431
355
Dominican rep., Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador,
Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Gibraltar, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Hong Kong, India,
Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jamaica, Jordan,
Kenya, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Malta, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar,
Nepal, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan,
Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Qatar, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Singapore,
Sri Lanka, Sudan, Taiwan, Tanzania,
Thailand, Togo, Trinidad Tobago, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Uruguay, Venezuela,
Vietnam, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
5: This refers to Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States.
6: These countries are Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan,
China, Philippines, Sri-Lanka, Thailand and
Vietnam
7: This includes Hong Kong, Korea, Indonesia, India, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand.
8: This refers to India, Indonesia, Burma, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore.
9: This includes Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany,
Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg,
Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United
Kingdom, United States.
10: This includes Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Malaysia,
Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines,
Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkey and Venezuela.
11: This includes Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman Algeria,
Nigeria, Mexico, Venezuela and Ecuador.
12: Low income group means Congo rep., Nepal, Nigeria, Togo, Zambia, Ghana, Kenya,
Bangladesh, Benin, Zimbabwe, India,
Pakistan, Senegal, Haiti, Congo rep., Cameroon, Indonesia, Cote dIvoire and Nicaragua.
13: Lower middle income group means China, Sri Lanka, Honduras, Syria, Bolivia,
Philippines, Morocco, Ecuador, Egypt, Arab rep.,
Paraguay, Algeria, Guatemala, Thailand, El Salvador, Colombia, Peru, Tunisia,
Dominican rep., Jamaica, Turkey, South Africa and
Gabon.
14: Upper middle income group means Malaysia, Brazil, Costa Rica, Panama, Venezuela,
Hungary, Chile, Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago,
European Scientific Journal January edition vol. 8, No.1 ISSN: 1857 7881 (Print) e - ISSN 1857- 7431
356
Uruguay, Oman, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Malta and Korea rep.
15: High income group means Portugal, Greece, New Zealand, Spain, Israel, Australia, Italy,
Canada, Singapore, Ireland, France,
Belgium, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, UK, Austria, HK, China and Sweden.
16: This includes Iran, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Syria.
17: This includes Brazil, China, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, South Africa,
Thailand, and Turkey
18: This includes Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri-Lanka.
The existing literature reveals that due to the application of different econometric
methodologies and different sample sizes the empirical results are very mixed and even vary
for the same country and same panel and are not conclusive to present policy formulation that
can be applied over the countries. Thus this study tries to overcome the shortcoming literature
related with the linkage between electricity consumption and economic growth for the panel
of SAARC countries. Also this empirical study will be important to formulate policy
recommendation from the point of view of electricity consumption and economic growth,
export values and remittance for the panel of SAARC countries.
2. Data sources and descriptive statistics
Annual data for per capita real GDP (PGDP) ( constant 2000 USD), per capita
electricity consumption (EC) (kWh), export values of goods and services (EX) ( constant
2000 USD) and workers remittance receipt (RE) (in USD) are downloaded from the World
Banks Development Indicators. The data is for the period from 1976 to 2009. Due to the
data problem only three SAARC countries namely Bangladesh, India and Pakistan are
considered for the panel analysis. Some descriptive statistics of all variables for individuals
and also for panel are given below in Table (2)
Table 2: Descriptive statistics for individuals and also for panel
Descriptive
Statistics
PGDP EC EX RE
Bangladesh Min
Max
Mean
Std. Dev.
CV.
216.6887
482.6105
296.8801
76.6714
25.8257%
15.5288
214.4
71.3234
53.5847
75.1292%
768645026.3
15649927542.0
4793708947.2
4520743859.7
94.3058%
18761275.1
10510108316.0
1987328497.8
2493240816.4
125.4569%
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India Min
Max
Mean
Std. Dev.
CV.
218.8990
766.3755
384.1765
154.2683
40.1556%
126.0977
778.7100
320.9439
153.0350
47.6828%
9044664320
302812652359
55594385824
71798335694
129.1467%
641780814.4
49179627878.0
10541613422.7
12981427922.8
123.1446%
Pakistan Min
Max
Mean
Std. Dev.
CV.
290.1789
656.8739
473.5847
107.4918
22.6975%
101.3298
479.6571
293.7112
119.4579
40.6719
1920244102.0
19099569944.0
8800785985.5
5316245965.9
60.4065
411736924.6
9960000000.0
2842223483.69
2202974790.20
77.5089%
Panel Min
Max
Mean
Std. Dev.
CV.
216.6887
766.3755
384.8804
136.8488
35.5562%
15.5288
778.7100
228.6595
160.8644
70.3511%
768645026
302812652359
23062960252
47300185190
205.0916%
18761275.1
49179627878.0
5123721801.4
8580325420.9
167.4627%
Min: indicates minimum value, Max: indicates maximum value, Std. Dev.: indicates standard
deviation, CV: indicates coefficient of variation
The reported mean per capita GDP in Table (2) is highest for Pakistan followed by
India and Bangladesh and the mean per capita GDP for the panel is greater than Bangladesh
and India but less than Pakistan. In respect of economic growth it is found that the volatility
is highest for India followed by Bangladesh and Pakistan indicates that Indian economy
among SAARC countries is growing at a faster rate. The coefficient of variation for the panel
variable economic growth is 35.5562% which indicates the existence of huge differential
among the SAARC countries. The range of per capita GDP for panel is 549.6868 USD
which indicates the significant differential among SAARC countries. The per capita mean
electricity consumption recorded is highest for India and followed by Pakistan and
Bangladesh. In respect of electricity consumption the low income countries are more volatile
than high income countries indicates that high income countries are consuming more
electricity consumption. The mean electricity consumption for this panel is 228.6595 kwh,
which is lower than India and Pakistan but higher than Bangladesh. The volatility for this
panel in respect of electricity consumption is 70.3511% which indicates the existence of huge
differences in respect of per capita electricity consumption among SAARC countries. It is
found that the export values of goods and services and workers remittance are higher for
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358
high income and lower for low income SAARC countries. The volatility of export values of
goods and services is highest for India followed by Pakistan and Bangladesh and also the
volatility of remittance is highest for Bangladesh followed by India and Bangladesh which
indicate that the export values of high income countries higher than low income countries.
The volatility of export values and remittance for the panel indicate that the existence
of huge differential among high income and low income SAARC countries.Since the average
electricity consumption, export values and workers remittance of high income countries are
relatively higher among SAARC countries thus a general question arises in our mind whether
these variables cause economic growth for the panel of SAARC countries. Thus to give the
answer of the question, the principal purpose of this study is made to investigate empirically
the dynamic causality relationship between economic growth, electricity consumption, export
values of goods and services and workers remittance for the panel of three SAARC
countries based on the modern econometric techniques.
3. Empirical model
In order to find the relationship between economic growth, electricity consumption,
export values and remittance for the panel of three SAARC countries the following model is
proposed;
3i it 1i 2i
it 0 it it it
PGDP = A EC EX RE e
o c o o
(1)
The logarithmic transformation of equation (1) is given by;
it 0 1i it 2i it 3i it it
ln(PGDP ) = + ln(EC )+ ln(EX )+ ln(RE )+ o o o o c
(2)
where,
0 0
=ln(A ) o ,the subscript i represents ith country and t represents time period for each
country.
PGDP indicates per capital real GDP, EC indicates per capita electricity consumption, EX
indicates total export values of goods and services and RE indicates workers remittance.
Here
1 2 3
, , and o o o represents the long-run elasticities of economic growth with respect to
EC, EX, and RE respectively.
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359
4. Econometric methodology
The empirical investigation of the dynamic causal relationship between economic
growth, electricity consumption, export values, and remittance using modern econometrics
techniques involves the following three steps. At the first step whether each panel variable
contains a unit root is examined. If the variables contain a unit root, the second step is to test
whether there is a long run-cointegration relationship between the panel variables. If a long-
run relationship between the variables is found, the final step is to estimate panel vector error
correction model in order to infer the Granger causal relationship between the variables.
Finally using the GMM technique the long-run and short-run elasticities of economic growth
with respect to electricity consumption, export values and remittance are estimated for the
panel. In this paper the software RATS, EViews and STATA are used for empirical analyses.
4.1 Panel unit root tests
Since none of the panel unit root test is free from some statistical shortcomings in
terms of size and power properties, so it is better for us to perform several unit root tests to
infer an overwhelming evidence to determine the order of integration of the panel variables.
In this paper four panel unit root tests: Levin, Lin and Chu (LLC, 2002) , Im, Peasaran and
Shin (IPS, 2003), Maddala and Wu (MW, 1999), and Choi (2006) tests are applied.
The LLC test is based on the assumption that the persistence parameters
i
p are
common across cross-sections so that
i
= p p for all i, but this assumption is not true for
several variables. The second and third tests assume cross-sectional independence. This
assumption is likely to be violated for the income variable. It has been found by Banerjee,
Cockerill and Russell (2001) that these tests have poor size properties and have a tendency to
over-reject the null hypothesis of unit root if the assumption of cross-section independence is
not satisfied. Peasaran (2003) and Choi (2006) are derived other tests statistics to solve this
problem.
Levin, Lin and Chu (LLC, 2002) considered the following regression equation
i
p
it it-1 ij it-j it it
j=1
y = y + y +X + o o c ' A A
_
(3)
where,
it it i,t-1
y = y -y A , here the assumption is = -1 o p i.e.
i
= p p for all i, but allow the lag
order for the difference terms
i
p , to vary across cross-sections. Here the null hypothesis to be
European Scientific Journal January edition vol. 8, No.1 ISSN: 1857 7881 (Print) e - ISSN 1857- 7431
360
tested is
0
H : 0 o = ; against the alternative hypothesis is that
1
H : < 0 o . The null hypothesis
indicates that there is a unit root while the alternative hypothesis indicates that there is no unit
root. To perform the test statistic at first they regress
it
y A and
it-1
y on the lag terms
it-j
y A (j =
1, 2,..,
i
p ) and the exogenous variables
it
X which are given by;
i
p
it ij it-j it it
j=1
y = y +X +u o ' A A
_
(4)
i
p
it-1 it-j it it
j=1
y = y +X +v
ij
| i ' A
_
(5)
The estimated equations are given by;
i
p
it ij it-j it
j=1
y = y +X o ' A A
_
(6)
i
p
it-1 it-j it
j=1
y = y +X
ij
| i ' A
_
(7)
Then they define
it
y A by taking
it
y A and removing the autocorrelations and deterministic
components using the first set of auxiliary estimates:
i
p
it it ij it-j it
j=1
y = y y -X o ' A A A
_
(8)
Analogously they also define
i
p
it-1 it-1 it-j it
j=1
y = y y -X
ij
| i ' A
_
(9)
The proxies are obtained by standardizing both
it
y A and
it-1
y dividing by the regression
standard error i.e.
it
it
i
y
y
s
A
A = ; and
it-1
it-1
i
y
y =
s
; where
i
s are estimated the standard errors
from estimating each ADF in equation (3) . Finally an estimate of the coefficient o may be
obtained from the pooled proxy equation
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361
it it-1 it
y y o q A = +
(10)
LLC show that under the null hypothesis, a modified t-statistic for the resulting o is
asymptotically normally distributed which is given by;
-2 *
n * mT
*
mT
t (nT)S se( )
t = ~N(0, 1)
o
o
o o
o
(11)
where t
o
is the standard t-statistic for
0
H : = 0 o ,
2
o is the estimate variance of the error
term q, se( ) o is the standard error of o ,
n
S is the mean of the ratios of the long-run
standard deviation to the innovation standard deviation for each individual. Its estimate is
derived using kernel-based techniques
i
1
p
T = T- -1
n
i =
_
(12)
*
mT
and
*
mT
o
are the two adjusted factors for the mean and standard deviation.
Im, Pesaran and Shin (IPS, 2003) proposed the test statistic using the following
model;
i
p
it it-1 ij it-j it it
j=1
y = y + y +X +
i
o o c ' A A
_
(13)
where,
it it i,t-1
y = y -y A ,
it
y (i = 1, 2,..,n; t = 1, 2,..,T) is the series under
investigation for country i over period t,
i
p is the number of lags in the ADF regression and
the
it
c errors are assumed to be independently and normally distributed random variables for
all is and ts with zero mean and finite heterogeneous variance
2
i
o . Both
i
o and
i
p in
equation (13) are allowed to vary across countries. The null hypothesis to be tested is that
each series in the panel contains a unit root, i. e.
0 i
H : = 0 i o . Against the alternative
hypothesis that some of the individual series to have unit root but not all
i
1
i
0; for some i's
H :
0; for at least one i
o
o
=
<
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362
There are two stages for constructing the t-bar statistic which is proposed by Im, Pesaran and
Shin (2003). At the first stage the average value of the individual ADF t-statistic for each of
the countries in the sample is calculated which is given by
i
n
nT iT i
i=1
1
t = t (p )
n
_
(14)
where
i
iT i
t (p ) is the calculated ADF test statistic for country i of the panel (i = 1, 2, ,n).
The second step is to calculate the standardized t-bar statistic which is given by;
nT
1
nT iT i
1
t
iT i
1
n t E( t (p ))
Z = ~ N(0, 1)
1
var( t (p ))
n
n
i
n
i
n
=
=
(
(
_
_
(15)
where n is the size of the panel, which indicates the no. of countries,
iT i
E(t (p )) and
iT i
var( t (p )) are provided by IPS for various values of T and p. However, Im, et al. (2003)
suggested that in the presence of cross-sectional dependence, the data can be adjusted by
demeaning and that the standardized demeaned t-bar statistic converges to the standard
normal in the limit.
Maddala and Wu (MW, 1999) proposed a Fisher-type test which combines the p-
values from unit root tests for each cross-section i. The test is non-parametric and has a chi-
square distribution with 2n degrees of freedom, where n is the number of countries in the
panel. The test statistic is given by;
n
2
e i 2n(d.f.)
i=1
=-2 log (p )~ i
_
(16)
where
i
p is the p-value from the ADF unit root tests for unit i. The Maddala and Wu (1999)
test has the advantage over the IPS (2003) test that it does not depend on different lag lengths
in the individual ADF regressions.
In addition Choi (2006) derived another test statistic which is given by;
n
-1
i
i=1
1
Z = (p ) ~ N(0, 1)
n
u
_
(17)
where,
-1
u is the inverse of the standard normal cumulative distribution function.
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We know macroeconomic variables tend to exhibit a trend over time, thus it is more
appropriate to consider the regression equation with constant and trend terms at level form.
Thus for panel unit root tests, in the paper two cases are considered in level form. In case one
both constant and trend terms are included in the equation and in case two only constant term
is included in the equation. Since first differencing is likely to remove any deterministic
trends in the variable, regression should include only constant term. The ADF test results for
individuals and also the tests results for panel are given below in Table (3) and (4)
respectively.
Table 3: ADF unit root test results for the individuals
lnPGDP lnEC lnEX lnRE
Case 1: Model with constant and trend terms [ Level form]
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
1.18047
-0.83406
-2.09580
-3.16457
-1.23936
-0.75828
-1.81564
0.27128
-2.09923
-2.11814
-1.33020
-2.53095
Case 2: Model with only constant term [ Level form]
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
3.51189
3.24760
-2.33388
0.72764
0.77323
-2.93351
1.42222
3.81261
-1.94144
-0.59181
0.14687
-1.93318
Model with only constant term [ First differenced]
AlnPGDP AlnEC AlnEX
AlnRE
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
-2.95197*
-2.95804*
-2.59738
-5.65153**
-2.97630*
-0.73597
-3.34448*
-4.66677**
-3.75593**
-3.51876*
-3.57036*
-6.69558**
*: indicates significant at 5% level, **: indicates significant at 1% level
Table 4: LLC, IPS, MW and Choi panel unit root tests results
Case 1: Model with constant and trend terms [ Level form]
LLC
Test
Prob. IPS
Test
Prob. MW Test Prob. Choi
Test
Prob.
lnPGDP
lnEC
0.98638
0.82305
0.8380
0.7948
3.0526
0.5693
0.9989
0.7154
1.3755
6.8588
0.9673
0.3341
2.9836
0.6749
0.9986
0.7501
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lnEX
lnRE
-0.0325
3.1616
0.4870
0.9992
1.1669
0.3565
0.8784
0.6393
2.1850
3.9803
0.9019
0.6793
1.2234
0.3573
0.8894
0.6396
Case 2: Model with only Constant Term [ Level form]
lnPGDP
lnEC
lnEX
lnRE
3.8851
-1.0822
1.8347
0.9750
0.9999
0.1396
0.9667
0.8352
6.1057
1.5095
3.7070
1.3850
1.0000
0.944
0.9999
0.9170
3.5669
7.9128
2.3457
2.6959
0.735
0.2446
0.8853
0.8459
5.0312
1.3924
3.3710
1.3825
1.000
0.9181
0.9996
0.9166
Model with only constant term [ First differenced form]
A
lnPGDP
AlnEC
AlnEX
AlnRE
-0.2487
-0.8648
-
2.9907*
-
2.0168*
0.4018
0.1926
0.0014
0.0219
-
1.6466*
-
2.8384*
-
4.5740*
-
5.9574*
0.0498
0.0023
0.0000
0.0000
12.0049**
24.7577*
31.7422*
43.1814*
0.0619
0.0004
0.0000
0.0000
-
1.7150*
-
2.4572*
-
4.3945*
-
5.2413*
0.0432
0.0070
0.0000
0.0000
*: indicates significant at 1% level, **: indicates significant at 5% level., ***:indicates
significant at 10% level
The ADF test results for individuals support that all the variables are integrated of
order 1 for Bangladesh and India but for Pakistan the variables economic growth and
electricity consumption are integrated of order two and the variables export values and
remittance are integrated of order 1. The panel unit root tests results support that all the panel
variables are integrated of order 1.
4.2 Panel cointegration
From the panel unit root tests results it is found that all the panel variables are
integrated of order (1). Therefore the cointegration analysis is conducted to examine whether
there is a long-run relationship among the variables using the Kao (1999) ADF type test and
Johansen Fisher panel cointegration test proposed by Maddala and Wu (1999).
The Kao (1999) ADF type test can be computed from the following regression equation
p
it it-1 it-j it
j=1
e = e + e +v
ij
p A
_
(18)
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365
where
it
e s are the estimated residuals from the panel static regression equation;
it i it it
y = +x +u ; i = 1, 2,.........,n; t = 1, 2,....,T; | '
(19)
where : (m, 1) vector of the slope parameters |
i
: intercepts,
it
u : stationary disturbance
terms. Here
it
x is a (m, 1) integrated process of order 1 for all i, i.e.
it it it-1 it
x ~I(1) i, x = x +c ,
it it
{y , x } are independent across cross-sectional units and
, )
it it
= u ,
it
e c
'
' is a linear process. Then, the long-run covariance matrix of
it
{ } e is denoted
by O and is given by;
u u
ij 0
j=- u
= E( , ) =
i
c
c c
e e
O O | |
' O
O O
\
_
and
u
i0 i0
=E( ) =
u
u
c
c c
e e
X X | |
' X
X X
\
The null hypothesis of no cointegrationcan be written as
0
H : = 1 p
Against the alternative hypothesis is
1
H : < 1 p
With the null hypothesis of no cointegration, the Kao (1999) ADF test statistics can be
constructed as follows;
, )
0
0
2
2 2
0
2 0
6 / 2
ADF = ~ (0,1)
2
3 /10
2
v v
v
v
v v
v
t n
N
p
o o
o
o
o o
o
+
+
(20)
where,
2 -1
v u u
= -
c c
o X X X and
2 1
0v
u uc c
o
= O O O
The Johansen Fisher panel cointegration test is based on the aggregates of the p-
values of the individual Johansen maximum eigenvalues and trace statistic. If
i
p is the p-
value from an individual cointegration test for cross-section i, under the null hypothesis the
test statistic for the panel is given by;
n
2
i 2
1
-2 log(p ) ~
n
i
=
_
(21)
In the Johansen type panel cointegration tests results heavily depends on the number
of lags of the VAR system. The results are obtained here use one lag and are given below in
Table (4) for individuals and in Table (5) for panel.
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Table 4: Results of the individuals cointegration tests
Hypothesis
:
No
cointegratio
n
Model 1 Model 2
Country Trace
Test
Prob. Max-
Eigen
Test
Prob. Trace
Test
Prob. Max-
Eigen
Test
Prob.
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
76.3021
*
53.5980
*
55.8481
*
0.000
0
0.001
3
0.000
7
31.7416
*
24.7300
*
29.5387
*
0.003
9
0.041
8
0.008
5
88.0784
*
75.6313
*
65.4300
*
0.000
0
0.000
2
0.003
5
34.4052*
35.7767*
29.5627*
0.0080
0.0051
0.0374
Hypothesis: At most one cointegration equation Hypothesis: At most one cointegration
equation
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
44.5605
*
28.8688
*
26.3094
0.000
0
0.012
3
0.027
3
24.9843
*
18.4258
*
20.0422
*
0.003
5
0.040
2
0.022
6
53.6732
*
39.8545
*
35.8673
*
0.000
2
0.014
6
0.042
2
27.1754*
18.4446
23.1833*
0.0009
6
0.1586
0.0376
Hypothesis: At most two cointegration equation Hypothesis: At most two cointegration
equation
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
19.5762
*
10.4422
6.2671
0.002
6
0.101
2
0.404
2
19.4758
*
9.3859
4.550
0.001
5
0.103
5
0.542
9
26.4978
*
21.4100
*
12.6839
0.006
0
0.034
6
0.389
6
20.2721*
14.8768*
*
10.5882
0.0096
0.0716
0.2838
Hypothesis: At most three cointegration equation Hypothesis: At most three
cointegration equation
European Scientific Journal January edition vol. 8, No.1 ISSN: 1857 7881 (Print) e - ISSN 1857- 7431
367
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
0.1004
1.0552
1.7171
0.794
4
0.353
4
0.223
4
0.1004
1.0562
1.7171
0.794
4
0.353
4
0.223
4
6.2257
6.5332
2.0957
0.174
0
0.153
4
0.758
6
6.2257
6.5332
2.0957
0.1740
0.1534
0.7586
Model 1: No intercept or trend in cointegration equation and VAR, Model 2: Intercept (no
trend) incointegration equation no intercept in VAR
Table 5: Results of the Johansen based panel conintegration test
Model 1 Model 2
Number
of
Coint.
Eqn.
Trace
Test
Prob. Max-
Eigen
Value
Test
Prob. Trace
Test
Prob. Max-
Eigen
Value
Test
Prob.
None
At Most
1
At Most
2
At Most
3
55.22*
35.93*
18.31*
5.539
0.0000
0.0000
0.0055
0.4768
26.99*
25.31*
18.81*
5.539
0.0001
0.0003
0.0045
0.4768
53.17*
31.79*
18.33*
7.800
0.0000
0.0000
0.0045
0.2531
26.80*
19.53*
17.09*
7.800
0.0002
0.0034
0.0090
0.2531
Kao cointegration Test Statistic Probability
-2.9985* 0.0014
Model 1: No intercept or trend in cointegration equation and VAR, Model 2: Intercept (no
trend) incointegration equation no intercept in VAR
The results of the individual cointegration tests in Table (5) indicate that all the
variables are cointegrated for Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. The Kao and Johansen Fisher
panel cointegration tests results confirmed that there is a long-run cointegration relationship
among the panel variables.
European Scientific Journal January edition vol. 8, No.1 ISSN: 1857 7881 (Print) e - ISSN 1857- 7431
368
4.3 Granger causality
The cointegration relationship indicates the existence of causal relationship but it does
not indicate the direction of causal relationship between variables. Therefore it is common to
test for detecting the causal relationship between variables using the Engle and Granger test
procedure. In the presence of cointegration relationship the application of Engle and Granger
(1987) causality test in the first differenced variables by means of a VAR will misleading the
results, therefore an inclusion of an additional variable to the VAR system such as the error
correction term (ECM) would help us to capture the long-run relationship. The augmented
form of the Granger causality test involving the ECM is formulated in a multivariate pth
order vector error correction (VEC) model given below;
it 11k 12 13 14 it-k 1
p
it 21 22 23 24 it-k 2
k=1 it 31 32 33 34 it-k 3
it 41 42 43 44 it-k 4
lnPGDP lnPGDP C
lnEC lnEC C
lnEX lnEX C
lnRE lnRE C
k k k
k k k k
k k k k
k k k k
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
A A ( ( ( (
( ( ( (
A A
( ( ( (
= +
( ( ( A A
( ( (
A A
( ( (
_
1it 1
2it 2
it-1
3it 3
4it 4
ECM
c i
c i
c i
c i
( (
( (
( (
+ +
( ( (
( ( (
( ( (
(22)
where i = 1, 2,..,n; t = p+1, p+2, p+3,.,T; .The Cs, 's | and 's i are the
parameters to be estimated. Astands for first difference,
it-1
ECM represents the one period
lagged error-term derived from the cointegration vector and the 's c are serially independent
with mean zero and finite covariance matrix. From the equation (22) given the use of a VEC
structure, all variables are treated as endogenous variables.
The F test is applied here to examine the direction of any causal relationship between
the variables. The electricity consumption does not Granger cause economic growth in the
short run, if and only if all the coefficients
12k
| s k are not significantly different from zero
in equation (22). Similarly the economic growth does not Granger cause electricity
consumption in the short run if and only if all the coefficients
21k
| s k are not significantly
different from zero in the equation (22). They are referred to as the short-run Granger
causality test. The coefficients on the ECM represent how fast deviations from the long-run
equilibrium are eliminated. Another channel of causality can be studied by testing the
significance of ECMs. This test is referred to as the long run causality test. The short-run and
long-run Granger causality tests results are reported below in Table (6) for individuals and in
Table (7) for panel
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369
Table 6 Granger F-test results for individuals
Bangladesh
lnPGDP A lnEC A lnEX A lnRE A ECM
lnPGDP A 2.1162
(0.1454)
2.9579**
(0.0738)
2.6579**
(0.09867)
-0.14769
(0.8839)
lnEC A 0.3150
(0.7332)
0.8602
(0.4374)
0.7068
(0.5045)
0.55035
(0.5878)
lnEX A 0.0101
(0.990)
1.2326
(0.3117)
0.0567
(0.9451)
0.45856
(0.65126)
lnRE A 1.6185
(0.2219)
0.2219
(0.9953)
0.6300
(0.5423)
0.62609
(0.5380)
India
lnPGDP A 0.3221
(0.5752)
0.9240
(0.3452)
0.1371
(0.7142)
-0.47816
(0.6365)
lnEC A 0.0327
(0.8578)
0.6514
(0.4269)
0.8444
(0.3665)
-0.52912
(0.6012)
lnEX A 0.0230
(0.8805)
0.0560
(0.8148)
1.2844
(0.2674)
3.2366*
(0.0032)
lnRE A 1.7754
(0.1942)
2.3844
(0.1346)
2.3108
(0.1523)
2.5325
(0.1236)
0.83988
(0.4086)
Pakistan
lnPGDP A 0.7770
(0.3864)
0.6094
(0.4423)
0.0347
(0.8536)
-3.0826*
(0.0049)
lnEC A 3.3572**
(0.0788)
0.6506
(0.4275)
2.1974
(0.1507)
1.5330
(0.13783)
lnEX A 1.3419
(0.2576)
0.0932
(0.7627)
0.0044
(0.9474)
-0.08391
(0.9337)
lnRE A 0.0021
(0.9634)
2.2391
(0.1471)
0.0224
(0.8821)
0.16906
(0.8671)
*: indicates significant at 5% level and **: indicates significant at 10% level.
Table 7 Panel Granger F-test results
lnPGDP A lnEC A lnEX A lnRE A ECM
lnPGDP A 0.0189 3.2289** 2.1737 -0.72673
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370
(0.8910) (0.0757) (0.1438) (0.4692)
lnEC A 0.0179
(0.8937)
0.89377
(0.1835)
1.4314
(0.2346)
-0.06127
(0.95127)
lnEX A 8.2109*
(0.0051)
0.0671
(0.7961)
0.8640
(0.3551)
-0.21695
0.82873
lnEX A 1.2043
(1.2043)
1.4655
(0.2292)
0.2701
(0.6045)
1.2183
(0.2262)
The reported values in parentheses are the p-values of the test. * : indicates significant at 5%
level, ** : indicates significant at 10% level
The findings in Table (6) indicate that there is only short-run causality running from
export values and remittance to economic growth in Bangladesh, only long-run causality
from economic growth to export values in India, only unidirectional short-run causality from
economic growth to electricity consumption in Pakistan. The findings in Table (7) indicate
that there is panel short-run bidirectional causality between economic growth and export
values but there is no evidence of long-run causal relationship.
4.4 Short-run and long-run elasticity
The short run elasticity can be obtained by estimating the following error correction model
it 1 it 2 it 3 it it-1 it
lnPGDP = lnEC + lnEX + lnRE + ECM o o o i c A A A A +
(23)
where
it
c is the random error terms,
1 2 3
, , , and o o o i are the parameters to be estimated. The
parameter i represents speed of adjustment for short-run to reach in the long-run
equilibrium.
The long-run elasticity can be obtained by estimating the following regression equation
i i i
i i i
k
it i 1 it 2 it 3 it ij it-j ij it-j ij it-j it
j=-k j=-p j=-p
lnPGDP = + lnEC + lnEX + lnRE lnEC lnEX + lnRE
p p
u | | | i o + A + A A +
_ _ _
(24)
The GMM is applied to estimate both equation which control the problem of endogeneity and
serial correlation of regressors. The estimated results are given below in Table (8)
Table 8 Individuals and panel short-run and long-run elasticities
Short-run elasticity [ lnPGDP A is the dependent variable]
lnEC A lnEX A lnRE A ECM
European Scientific Journal January edition vol. 8, No.1 ISSN: 1857 7881 (Print) e - ISSN 1857- 7431
371
Coeff. t-Test Coeff. t-Test Coeff. t-Test Coeff. t-Test
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
0.0878
0.3032
0.4263
2.8575*
4.5646*
7.1861*
0.11647
0.14254
0.00824
3.3922*
4.0873*
0.29404
0.0027
0.0257
0.0028
0.1947
1.0300
0.00284
-
0.2641
-
0.2243
-
0.3169
-
3.1941*
-1.2019
-1.7204
Panel 0.1845 4.9564* 0.1049 5.7950* 0.01033 2.3843* -
0.0551
-
4.0048*
Long-run elasticity [ lnPGDP is the dependent variable]
lnEC lnEX lnRE
Coeff. t-Test Coeff. t-Test Coeff. t-Test
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
0.0493
0.00224
0.09205
1.3507
0.0304
1.655**
0.08677
0.07246
0.01348
2.5018*
1.3473
0.5361
0.16564
0.00919
0.01296
15.693*
0.4362
3.4739*
Panel 0.30020 6.4132* 0.09350 1.59817 0.09852 1.78017**
*: indicates significant at 5% level, **: indicates significant at 10% level.
From the estimated results in Table (8) it is found that the variable electricity
consumption has short-run positive significant impact on economic growth for Bangladesh,
India and Pakistan. The range of short-run elasticity is 0.4263 for India to 0.0878 for
Bangladesh. The variable export values have short-run significant positive impact on
economic growth for Bangladesh and India. The impacts of the variable remittance are not
statistically significant for Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. It is found that it takes about 3.79
years for Bangladesh, 4.46 years for India and 3.16 years for Pakistan to reach in the long-run
equilibrium and statistically significant only for Bangladesh.
For panel analysis, it is found that the short-run elasticities of economic growth with
respect to electricity consumption, export values and remittance are positively significant also
for panel estimation the ECM is statistically significant.
For long-run, it is found that the variables export values and remittance have
significant positive impacts on economic growth in Bangladesh, none of the variable has
significant impact one economic growth in the long-run for India, the variables electricity
consumption and remittance have significant positive impacts on economic growth for
Pakistan.
European Scientific Journal January edition vol. 8, No.1 ISSN: 1857 7881 (Print) e - ISSN 1857- 7431
372
For panel estimation the variables electricity consumption and remittance have significant
positive impact on economic growth and the export values have positive impact in the long-
run but not significant. It is found that the long-run elasticity of economic growth with
respect electricity consumption and remittance are higher than short run elasticity. This
means that over time higher electricity consumption and remittance from manpower supply in
the panel of SAARC countries give rise to more economic growth.
5.Conclusions and policy implications
This paper attempts to empirically examine the short-run and long-run causal
relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, export values and workers
remittance receipt for the panel of three SAARC countries using the time series data for the
period 1971- 2009 on the basis of modern econometric techniques. Also this study attempts
to examine the new approach which is proposed by Narayan and Narayan (2010). Before
testing for any causal relationship among the variables within a VAR model structure at the
first stage panel unit root tests and at the second stage panel cointegration analysis are done.
Four different panel unit root tests, Levin, Lin and Chu (LLC, 2002), Im, Peasaran and Shin
(IPS, 2003), Maddala and Wu (1999), and Choi (2006) tests are applied. The tests results
support that all the panel variables are integrated of order one. The ADF test results support
that all the variables are integrated of order 1 for Bangladesh and India but the variable
economic growth and electricity consumption are integrated of order 2 for Pakistan.
The Kao and the Johansen Fisher panel cointegration tests results support that all the
panel variables are cointegrated. Also the individual cointegration tests results support that all
the variables are cointegrated for Bangladesh, India and Pakisatn.
From the individual Granger F-test results, only short-run causality running from
export values and remittance to economic growth at 10% level in Bangladesh, long-run
causality from economic growth to export values in India, and unidirectional short-run
causality from economic growth to electricity consumption in Pakistan. The panel Granger F-
test results support the bidirectional short-run causal relationship between economic growth
and export values but there is no evidence of long-run panel causal relationship among the
variables. This evidence indicates that there are inter-dependencies between exports and
economic growth in the panel of SAARC countries. The main reason for this, economic
growth causes expansion in the commercial and industrial sectors and vice versa.
It is found that the long-run elasticity of economic growth with respect to electricity
consumption (0.30020) and remittance (0.09852) are higher than short run elasticity of
European Scientific Journal January edition vol. 8, No.1 ISSN: 1857 7881 (Print) e - ISSN 1857- 7431
373
(0.1845) and (0.01033). This means that over time higher electricity consumption and higher
remittance from man power supply in the panel of SAARC countries gives rise to more
economic growth. It is found that it takes about 3.79 years for Bangladesh, 4.46 years for
India and 3.16 years for Pakistan to reach in the long-run equilibrium position and
statistically significant only for Bangladesh. Thus it can be said that a policy to increase
investment in the electricity supply is likely to stimulate economic growth for SAARC
countries.
From the analytical results it can be concluded that due to any restriction on energy
use, the economic growth of SAARC countries will not be affected directly but due to
restriction on energy use, if the export values declined both the variables will be affected
simultaneously. From the analytical results it can be concluded that policies to increase
investment in commercial and industrial sectors to construct large, medium and small scale
factories to accelerate output should be implemented to keep pace with economic expansion
in SAARC countries.
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UDC:351:[005.32:331.101.3
THEORETICAL EVIDENCE ON THE EFFECT OF
MOTIVATION ON INDIVIDUAL AND PUBLIC
ORGANIZATION PERFORMANCE
Gentiana Kraja, PhD candidate
University Aleksander Moisiu, Durres, Albania
Abstract
Main goal of this paper is to make evidence on how motivation as one of the most important practices on human
resources has a great impact on individual performance of the public servant in one hand as a organizational
level factors and on the other hand as individual level factor and in this case is called public service motivation.
Lastly this paper through its a modest contribution tries to emphasize the importance that the public servant
performance has on public organization and the great importance that the performance of public organizations
has on representing the state face to public.
Although that is a growing evidence that high performance work practices affect organizational performance,
varying sample characteristics, research designs, practices examined, and organizational performance measures
used has led extant findings to vary dramatically, making the size of the overall effect difficult to estimate. So
first thing done in this paper is to give the evidence of and different approaches on organizational performance
and the presence, sometime directly sometime indirectly of the human resources as an important element of the
organizational performance equation. The aim of this paper is to give a overall information that testimonies that
there is a strong positive effect of human resources practices on the public organization performance, and also
that the individual level factors that influences the individual public servant performance are important in the
contribution they give on public organization performance.
Keywords: performance, public servant, public organization, motivation, public service
motivation
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378
I.
During the 1990s, in what has become known as the new public sector, many
services in advanced economies, such as those of the U.K. and Scandinavia, have come under
pressure to become more efficient and effective, so as to reduce their demands on taxpayers,
while maintaining the volume and quality of services supplied to the public. To achieve this,
they have been subjected to the introduction of various private sector management
techniques and the frequent adoption of some form of neo-market system in which the
purchasers and providers of public services have been split and are frequently required to
contract with each other
48
.
Second a wide number of considerations on public organizational performance
includes actual output measured against planned output, this is one of the general simplest
definitions, but also is a comprehensive. Form organizations as from this definition dont
make exception also public organizations. Main intention that hides behind performance
definition is measuring it and after measuring, improving it. Measures that in fact are not
directly related to performance improvement as for example improvement of the public
communication to construct faith, in fact these are tools through which main goal is going to
be
49
.
One generic assessment framework that has been widely used in public sector services
is detailed in Figure 1 (Industry Commission, 1997; SCRCSSP, 1998). The approach is
largely based upon the premise that in order to analyze performance a suite of outcome
indicators should be considered collectively
50
. Second Richard et al overall performance is
divided into two components: (i) efficiency, which describes how well an organization uses
resources in producing services; that is, the relationship between the actual and optimal
combination of inputs used to produce a given bundle of outputs, and (ii) effectiveness, the
degree to which a system achieves its program and policy objectives. In turn, effectiveness
encompasses a number of different desired aspects of service linked to program outcome
objectives. These are: (i) appropriateness (matching service to client needs); (ii) accessibility
(aspects such as affordability, representation amongst priority groups and physical
48
Brignall, S and Modell S., 2000. An Institutional prespective on performance measurement and management in the new public sector,
Management Accounting Research.
49
Behn, D. R, Why measure performance? Different purposes require different measures. 2003. Public Adminsitrsation Review, vol 63, No
5.
50
Worthington, A. Dollery, B. Efficiency Measurment in the Local Public Sector Econometric and Mathematical Programming frontier
Techniques, Australian Economic Reciew
European Scientific Journal January edition vol. 8, No.1 ISSN: 1857 7881 (Print) e - ISSN 1857- 7431
379
accessibility); and (iii) quality (the process of meeting required standards or incidence of
service failures)
51
.
The conception of performance
An important insight from institutional theory is that performance may be viewed
asinstitutionally defined, as institutional factors determine the interests being pursued
byorganizations
52
. More succinctly, Meyer and Zucker
53
argue that:
Generally, performance will be defined narrowly to the extent that (a) elites dominate an
organization, (b) a high degree of professionalization exists, and (c) the public organization
performs a technical function, outputs of which are measurable. Performance will be
construed much more broadly, by contrast, to the extent that (a) the norm of participative
democratic governance operates, sometimes in the formal structure or rules of an
organization, (b) the interests of multiple constituencies are given recognition, and (c) the
organizations function is non-technical and outputs elude measurement.
As mentioned before is seen as production with effectively and efficiency of public
goods and services, implying different resources as people, technology, capital and assets, as
shown in the figure 1 below
54
51
Richard et al. (2009): Measuring Organizational Performance: Towards Methodological Best Practice. Journal of Management
52
Scott, W. R., 1987. The adolescence of institutional theory, Administrative Science Quarterly, 32,493511.
53
Meyer, M. W. and Zucker, L. G., 1989. Permanently Failing Organizations, Newbury Park, Sage.Midwinter, A., 1994. Developing
performance indicators for local government: the Scottish
experience, Public Money and Management, 14 (2), 3743.
54
Worthington, A. Dollery, B. Efficiency Measurement in the Local Public Sector Econometric and Mathematical Programming frontier
Techniques, Australian Economic Review.
Performance
Efficiency
Resources
management
People
Technology
Capital
Effectiveness
Accessib
ility
Appropriateness
Quality
Outcomes
Table 1. Performance Evaluation (Worthington, Dollery, 2000)
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380
As Ceni, A. mentioned when explains public organizational performance and main
elements of organizational capacity, lists there elements of internal and external environment
as sown in figure (2)
55
.
As you can understand from the picture I have tried to illustrate in the previous issues,
human resources are always expressed in the definition or through the elements of
organizational performance, the way it is measured or the way it is managed.
The desire of human resource practitioners to demonstrate the value of what they do
for the public organization has a long history. In 1954 Drucker highlighted that personnel
managers are worried about their inability to prove that they are making a contribution to the
enterprise
56
. In response to repeated criticisms that HR does not add value to organizations,
the past decade has produced numerous contributions which claim to reveal that HR practices
are positively related to performance
57
.
Evidence on human resources management effecting organizational performance
Much of the debate over the links between HR policy and organizational performance
has been based on the distinction between two perspectives typically referred to a best
55
Ceni, A. 2011. Managing Public Organizations.
56
Wright, P. M., Gardner, T. M., Moynihan, L. M., & Allen, M. R. (2004). The relationship between HR practices and firm performance:
Examining causal order. CARHS Working Paper Series, 06. Available at: <http://ilr.corneli.
edu/CAHRS>.
57
Huselid, M. A., & Becker, B. E. (1996). Methodological issues in cross-sectional and panel estimates of the HR-firm performance link.
Industrial Relations, 35, 400-422
Organizational
Capacity
Strategic Leadership
Human Resources
Financial Direction
Organizational
processes
Program direction
Infrastructure
Connections with the
organization
External environment
Administrative and
juridical
Social and cultural
Technology
Economic
Politic
Intermediary
Organizational
Motivation
History
Mission
Culture
Indicator measurement
Organizational
Performance
Effectiveness
Efficiency
Appropriateness
Financial position
Table 2. Elements of organizational capacity (A. Ceni, 2011)
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381
practice and best fit. The best practice view
58
identifies a set of HR policies which, it is
argued, are associated with improved performance in all types of organization. The best fit
approach
59
argues that performance is maximized when the HR policies adopted are
consistent with the business strategy. Both of these approaches assume that the set of policies
adopted will have the same effect on all employees who work for the organization. Various
authors, for example Marchington and Grugulis
60
, have challenged this view pointing out that
organizations are complex with many different types of employees who may be managed
successfully through diverse sets of HR practices within a single organization.
A recurring issue in HRM is the idea that a certain bundle or combination of HR
policies, properly applied, is required for the achievement of high performance
61
. This
bundle, first identified by MacDuffie
62
has proved difficult to identify and different research
groups have different lists. What these approaches have in common is that they identify a
distinctive set of successful HR policies that can be applied successfully to all organizations
irrespective of their setting. Pfeffer
63
is perhaps the best known of these, developing initially
a list of 16 best practices which were subsequently narrowed down to 7 (1998). The seven
practices are: employment security, selective hiring, self-managed teams/team working, high
compensation contingent on organizational performance, extensive training, reduction of
status differentials and sharing information. This research has been extensively discussed,
with a variety of authors identifying methodological and theoretical problems
64
. For example,
even when an agreed list could be created there is the problem of whether an organization
needs all the policies on the list or just some, and the question of whether one policy is only
effective when linked to another. Reference is often made to deadly combinations where
one policy, say, individual performance related pay, clashes with another, like team work
65
.
Partly as a response to these kinds of criticisms, various authors drew attention to the
importance of analyzing the wider context within which organizations operated. This
perspective is derived from the contingency view, and it argues that the effectiveness of HR
58
Pfeffer, J., (1994/98) Competitive Advantage Through People, Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.
59
Schuler, R. and Jackson, S. (1987) Linking competitive strategies and human resource management practices, Academy of Management
Executive, 1 (3) 207-29.- Miles, R. and Snow, C. (1984) Designing strategic human resources systems, Organizational Dynamics,
Summer, 36-52.
60
Marchington, M. and Grugulis, I. (2000) Best practice human resource management: perfect opportunity or dangerous illusion?
International Journal of HumanResource Management, 11 (6) 1104-1124.
61
Wright, P. and Boswell, W. (2002) Desegregating HRM: A Review and Synthesis of Micro and Macro Human Resource Management
Research, Journal of Management, 28(3) 247-276.
62
MacDuffie, J.P. (1995) 'Human Resource bundles and manufacturing performance: organizational logic and flexible production systems
in the world auto industry.' Industrial and Labor Relations Review 48(2): 197-221.
63
Pfeffer, J., (1994/98) Competitive Advantage Through People, Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.
64
Purcell, J., Kinnie, N., Hutchinson, S. Rayton, B. and Swart, J. (2003) Understanding the People and Performance Link: Unlocking the
black box, London: Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development.
65
Delery, J. (1998) Issues of fit in strategic human resource management: implications for research, Human Resource Management
Review 8(3): 289-309.
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382
practices depends on how closely the practices fit with the external and internal environment
of the organization. Organizational performance, it is argued, improves when HR policies
mutually reinforce the choice of business strategy. This is the concept of vertical integration
between the business strategy, the objectives of the firm, the HR policies and individual
objectives
66
and this concept helps to explain lack of diffusion across firms because the
appropriate practices will depend on the context.
What I have cited before emphasizes the importance of human resource, or public
servant on the public organization performance, but also the main process and elements that
helps in managing and effecting human or individual performance.
Rather than list the number of policies and determine whether there was a relationship
with profits or shareholders value
67
we were concerned to try to find which policies were
associated with higher levels of organization commitment and job satisfaction, this way
performance. In other words I looked for links between satisfaction with policies as
experienced by the employees and attitudinal outcomes. In this context the equation below is
likely to be useful
68
P = f (A, M, O)
(where P is performance, A is ability, M is motivation and O is opportunity. As Boxall and
Purcell
69
argue people perform well when:
- they are able to do so (they can do the job because they possess the necessary knowledge
and skills);
- they have the motivation to do so (they will do the job because they are adequately
incentivized); and
- their work environment provides the necessary support and avenues for expression (e.g.
functioning technology and the opportunity to be heard when problems occur).
Motivation is a force that drives people to do things. Employees are normally motivated to
achieve their needs, whatever they may include. Motivation is inside another person's head
and heart. It may be intrinsic or extrinsic. This is what we call motivation. Employees of a
company will be motivated if they associate certain incentives with an activity of work.
66
Fombrun, C., Tichy, N. and Devanna, M. (eds.) (1984) Strategic Human ResourceManagement. New York: Wiley.
67
Guest D., Michie, J., Conway, N. and Sheehan, M. (2003) Human Resource Management and Corporate Performance in the UK, British
Journal of Industrial Relations, 41(2): 291-314.
68
Kinnie, N et al, 2004. HR Policy and Performance: An Occupational Analysis
69
Boxall, P. and Purcell, J. (2003) Strategy and Human Resource Management. Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan.
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383
It has been seen that the employees in the public sector organizations are not
motivated as much as in the private sector. There are so many factors responsible for this
state of nature. In this research the focus is that what are the factors responsible for
motivation and its impacts on the organization goals.
70
Was proved that the motivation energizers, directs and sustains behavior. They also
identified four factor/variables namely individual characteristics, job characteristics, work
environment and the external environment. If motivation is to be affected, one or more of
these variables must be changed or affected. Evidence indicates that public managers
experience significantly lower levels of satisfaction and motivation than do their counterparts
in the business, the primary motivators for public sector employees are the interests that
attract them to public service.
71
Higher pay and package is less important for public service managers (Rainy 1982).
The observed behavior in the public organizations can be understood only if citizens and
policy makers are motivated by altruistic considerations. Most of the managers in the public
sector are motivated by productivity and service enhancement. It has been further proved by
John King et al, 1992, that lack of significance of variables such as organizational role and
context suggests that motivations are not determine purely or even primarily by
environmental factors. They are instead the result of more complex interactions among the
environment, experience and personality.
72
More evidence on the impact that motivation has on individual and organization
performance is the model of job performance of motivation
73
where the motivational process
is just in the middle of the model through individual inputs and job context. Form the same
source we find also a very interesting element which has a great impact to on motivation and
so on performance which is job satisfaction. This is an important finding because it supports
the believe that employee job satisfaction attitude managers should consider when attempting
to increase employees job performance. Researchers believe the relationship between
satisfaction and performance is understand due to incomplete measures of individual level
performance. Form results of meta-analysis of 7,939 organizational units appear that
managers can positively affect a variety of important organizational outcomes, including
performance, by increasing job satisfaction.
70
Khadim, J. Ramey, M. Qureshi. T. (2003) Motivaton in Public Sector
71
Perry,L.J. Porter. W, L. (1982) Factors Affecting the conext for Motivation in Public Organization. The Academy of Management R
72
Khadim, J. Ramey, M. Qureshi. T. (2003) Motivaton in Public Sector
73
Kreitner and Kinicki (2008) Organizational Behavior, McGrow Hill Company Inc.
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384
Conclusions
As I can conclude at the end of this illustration of considerations, the human resource
performance is important to public organizational performance, and not only because public
servant is the face of the state to the eye of the public, but also because it effects the
effectiveness and the efficiency of the public organization and public goods and services.
Public organizations use different policies and practices to manage the public servant
performance but most of theoretical considerations show that seven of the big list of practices
are the most important and on which the public organization must have great attention, and
this practices are: employment security, selective hiring, self-managed teams/team working,
high compensation contingent on organizational performance, extensive training, reduction of
status differentials and sharing information.
The public servant tends to have a great performance when he has the Ability to do a
certain Job, when he is well motivated and if the opportunities are good. All these elements or
factor in private sector have more flexibility and elasticity, while in public sector the real
challenge of the human resources management is to manage well this elements, because
public organization dont offer the right elasticity to these elements, wage structure in public
organizations is well defined, and there is simple possibility to mange it case by case.
In public structures specially in human resources structures motivation should be
considered as a creative process, since public sector has a lack on managing different
instruments to motivate employees, specially when this sector is compared to private one.
Job satisfaction should be considered as a cause an as consequence of motivation, and of
individual and organizational performance.
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385
References:
Behn, D. R, Why measure performance? Different purposes require different measures. 2003.
Public Adminsitrsation Review, vol 63, No 5.
Brignall, S and Modell S., 2000. An Institutional prespective on performance measurement
and management in the new public sector, Management Accounting Research.
Boxall, P. and Purcell, J. (2003) Strategy and Human Resource Management. Basingstoke:
Palgrave MacMillan.
Ceni, A. 2011. Managing Public Organizations.
Delery, J. (1998) Issues of fit in strategic human resource management: implications for
research, Human Resource Management Review 8(3): 289-309.
Fombrun, C., Tichy, N. and Devanna, M. (eds.) (1984) Strategic Human Resource
Management. New York: Wiley.
Guest D., Michie, J., Conway, N. and Sheehan, M. (2003) Human Resource Management
and Corporate Performance in the UK, British Journal of Industrial Relations, 41(2): 291-
314.
Huselid, M. A., & Becker, B. E. (1996). Methodological issues in cross-sectional and panel
estimates of the HR-firmperformance link. Industrial Relations, 35, 400-422
Kinnie, N et al, 2004. HR Policy and Performance: An Occupational Analysis
Khadim, J. Ramey, M. Qureshi. T. (2003) Motivaton in Public Sector
Kreitner and Kinicki (2008) Organizational Behavior, McGrow Hill Company Inc.
Meyer, M. W. and Zucker, L. G., 1989. Permanently Failing Organizations, Newbury Park,
Sage.Midwinter, A., 1994. Developing performance indicators for local government: the
Scottish experience, Public Money and Management, 14 (2), 3743.
Marchington, M. and Grugulis, I. (2000) Best practice human resource management: perfect
opportunity or dangerous illusion? International Journal of HumanResource Management,
11 (6) 1104-1124.
MacDuffie, J.P. (1995) 'Human Resource bundles and manufacturing performance:
organizational logic and flexible production systems in the world auto industry.' Industrial
and Labor Relations Review 48(2): 197-221.
Pfeffer, J., (1994/98) Competitive Advantage Through People, Boston, MA: Harvard
Business School Press.
Pfeffer, J., (1994/98) Competitive Advantage Through People, Boston, MA: Harvard
Business School Press.
European Scientific Journal January edition vol. 8, No.1 ISSN: 1857 7881 (Print) e - ISSN 1857- 7431
386
Perry,L.J. Porter. W, L. (1982) Factors Affecting the conext for Motivation in Public
Organization. The Academy of Management Review.
Purcell, J., Kinnie, N., Hutchinson, S. Rayton, B. and Swart, J. (2003) Understanding the
People and Performance Link: Unlocking the black box, London: Chartered Institute of
Personnel and Development.
Richard et al. (2009): Measuring Organizational Performance: Towards Methodological Best
Practice. Journal of Management
Schuler, R. and Jackson, S. (1987) Linking competitive strategies and human resource
management practices, Academy of Management Executive, 1 (3) 207-29.- Miles, R. and
Snow, C. (1984) Designing strategic human resources systems,Organizational Dynamics,
Summer, 36-52.
Scott, W. R., 1987. The adolescence of institutional theory, Administrative Science Quarterly,
32,493511.
Worthington, A. Dollery, B. Efficiency Measurment in the Local Public Sector Econometric
and Mathematical Programming frontier Techniques, Australian Economic Reciew.
Worthington, A. Dollery, B. Efficiency Measurement in the Local Public Sector Econometric
and Mathematical Programming frontier Techniques, Australian Economic Review.
Wright, P. M., Gardner, T. M., Moynihan, L. M., & Allen, M. R. (2004). The relationship
between HR practices and firm performance: Examining causal order. CARHS Working
Paper Series, 06. Available at: <http://ilr.corneli.edu/CAHRS>.
Wright, P. and Boswell, W. (2002) Desegregating HRM: A Review and Synthesis of Micro
and Macro Human Resource Management Research, Journal of Management, 28(3) 247-
276.
European Scientific Journal January edition vol. 8, No.1 ISSN: 1857 7881 (Print) e - ISSN 1857- 7431
387
UDC:334.722.012.64/.65:336.1(496.5)
338.1:[334.722.012.64/.65:336.1(496.5)
FISCAL PRESURE ON SME IN ALBANIA AND ITS IMPACT
ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Robert Celo, PhD candidate
Lorenc Kociu, Msc.
EqremCabej University of Gjirokastra, Albania
Abstract:
Starting a new business is everyones dream. It brings unlimited opportunities and challenges as well, especially
in transitional economies. Our country has undergone tremendous changes since the fall of centralized economic
system till now. The role of SME in economic development and shortening transitional period is great. SME
sector has evolved tremendously but many challenges lay ahead. In our paper we will give a presentation of the
role of SME in economic reality in Albania and the region, its trend and challenges. Today SME face many
challenges like decrease of demand from market destabilizations, poor infrastructure, poor access to credit,
fiscal policy pressure etc.We will emphasize the role of fiscal policy in SME development. The role of fiscal
policy should be considered more carefully in todays global market, in short of perspective development. We
believe that fiscal pressure has been a major reason of the set back in SME development. We will analyze
Albanian fiscal evolution and its impact in SME development.
Keywords: SME, fiscal policy, global market, sustained economic growth, fiscal evolution.
1. SME development, its characteristics and challenges
Since 90 Albanian governments have continuously undertaken structural reforms
including reform of land, price liberalization, reform of privatization, financial reform and so
on. During this time almost all SME are privatized and the rest is on the way of privatization
in accordance with the government strategy of privatization. We mention here the privatization
in the telecommunication sector, banking, energy etc. Through this process Albanian
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388
economy has responded fairly well. From 1992, economic growth has been about 7%, inflation
rate has been under control between 2-4 %. Albania has good macroeconomic indicators with
satisfying growth rate of GDP. These activities made the private sector the major moving
economic force of countries development. Private sector makes of 80% of countrys GDP.
To further boost economic growth, recently Albania has undertaken several measures
toward European integration. Albania has signed the Small Business Act for Europe and is
working to fulfill its commitment in accordance with the European standards and practices. In
this context its fiscal policy, aimed at lowering tax burden for businesses which till 2006 has
been an obstacle to business growth and development. Later on we will talk about this in
details.
Its been a difficult road to establish the market infrastructure and institution due to
rapid changes in global economy, lack of relevant culture, and the existence of great informal
economy. Albanian government has built a strategy to fasten this process and help SME
development as a crucial factor in the sustainable economic growth of the country. The mission
of this strategy is to ensure sustained economic growth, high competition and productivity
through dynamic development of enterprises, investment incentives, and better use of human,
natural and financial resources.
2. SME and transition
Sustainable growth of SME is the cornerstone of Albanias economy. Improvement of
government policies in regards to both administrative and fiscal procedures, contributing in
both direct and indirect support of SME. The role of NGO as: Chamber of Commerce,
government bodies and employment offices must grow. They need to strengthen the SME
believe in them, participate (membership), and collaborate.
The fight on corruption and informal economy must intensify, by strengthening and
modernizing government institutions. All these steps will guarantee the SME development
trend and will bring the end of the economic transition area closer. SME development trend
play an important role in both market oriented economies and transitional economies growth.
As in other countries which passed from centralized economy to market oriented, Albanias
economic policy makers ignored the importance of SME development, focusing more on
privatization of states assets. Albanias weak institutions slowed down the SME development
and so the economic development during transition.
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389
Albania is one of the transition countries, still struggling with the transition process
despite its major improvements done recently. The outcome is barriers to SME development
and less contribution of them in speeding up the transition process. In our work we will try to
explain SME development in Albania and the role of government agents and other NGO, but
we are aware of the difficulties especially in measuring the exact level of SME and its effect
on the economic development in Albania. According to OECD its practically impossible to
measure SME and entrepreneur development and its effect to economy since there are no
generally agreed indicators. Transition process is described as passing from centrally planned
towards market oriented system. This transformation consists on institutional change, change
of state and private sector role, change from bureaucratic coordination into open economy.
But, only developing a private sector is not enough to implement this transformation. In the
beginning of 1990 the idea that government should leave the economy and the market alone,
was dominative. By doing so private sector would soon raise and take over and the market
would adjust by itself (Smiths invisible hand). This proved not to be successful in Albania.
Later on, and precisely after 2000 it was understood that in order to have a successful
transformation and a strong, sustained SME development, macroeconomic reforms, stability,
and strengthened institutions were needed.
There exists barriers on SME development in market oriented economies, but in the
transitional economies this barriers are way higher and stiffer, making it very difficult for
new businesses to enter and grow within the market. If there are not taken proper actions,
these barriers would result in economic slowdown or worst up to stagnate the transition
process.
External Barriers to SME and entrepreneurship development in Albanias transition
economy consist in many factors such as policy instability, unsteady tax legislation,
inadequate accounting standards, and nontransparent implementation of laws and so on.
Lack of state support in forms of business infrastructure, supporting services characterizes
transition economy. Difficulties in financing have been and still are a major concern due to
undeveloped financial market system in Albania.
Inefficient banking system, high interest rates, strict collateral requirements make it
difficult for SME development in Albania. Despite the lowering figures, Corruption is a very
important negative aspect that deters SME and entrepreneurship development. These are
derivatives of imperfect legal framework and less effective law application.
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390
Internal barriers are mostly related to lack of managerial skills and entrepreneurship
values. This is though normal to a country that comes from a centralized economy where the
SME and entrepreneurship did not exist. Listed in a table view, are the internal and external
barriers of SME.
Types of Barriers Types of Policies
External Barriers
Financial Framework
Incentive programs through different
programs in addition UNDP and Millennium
Challenge Fund
Legal Framework Improvement of Legislation
Tax reduction
Reducing number of licenses and the time
frame of acquiring them
State Support NRC, ease of registering a business
Increased transparency of actions
Fighting corruption
Internal Barriers
Entrepreneurs knowledge and managerial
skills
Consulting, support services of NGOs,
Strong and deep reforms undertaken during 2005-2010 generated unprecedented
economic growth, ranking Albania amongst the top list of developed countries. Reforms were
mostly directed towards strengthening public finances, improving business environment, and
upgrading infrastructures.
Government of Albania took drastic measures to introduce and implement simplifying
tax and customs code, tax administration and enforcement, reducing the registration of a
business from 38 days in 2007 in just 1 day, eliminating the frustrating process and
corruption.
According to the report of 2008 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), among 180
worldwide nations surveyed, Albania 85th, 2009 ranked 105th, and 2010 ranked 87th.
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391
3. The fiscal changes in Albania and the SMEs (Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises)
The SMEs in Albania are regulated by special law, which has occasionally been
subject of review and necessary changes to improve the environment in which SMEs operate
and creation of necessary facilities.
According to the law no. 8957, of 17.10.2002 For Small and Medium-Sized
Enterprises, amended, there is given the definition of what is called small enterprise and
medium enterprise. Small Enterprises are called those enterprises which employ fewer than
50 employees and have a business figure or annual total balance sheet less than 50 millions
lek. Medium Enterprises are called those enterprises which employ from 50 to 250
employees, have a business figure or annual total balance sheet by 50 millions to 250 millions
lek.
According to the above definitions in the group of SMEs enters a large number of
businesses, which are regulated under the category they belong. According to INSTAT
(Institute of Statistics) data at the end of 2010 were 100,687 enterprises registered and active
(Table 1). Only during 2010 were created 16,290 new enterprises, so despite the economic-
financial crisis that is happening, the number of businesses categorized in groups of SMEs
has been growing by 19% compared to 2009. If we calculate the average enterprises created
during 2006-2010 (12.040) and compare it with the average of the period 2001-2005 (7.334)
we have an 80% increase of the growth rate per year. This is a clear indicator of the success
of fiscal reforms taken after 2006, despite the economic crises that have accompanied the
world economy and its bad impact on our economy. About 91 % of enterprises have 1-4
employees. The SMEs sector in Albania provides about 64% of GDP (Gross Domestic
Product), and the employment of about 66% of employees in the private sector, creating
stability for the countrys economy.
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Table 1: Active enterprises by year of creation and size, 2010
Year of creation Total
By number of employees
1-4 5-9 10- 49 50+
Total 100,687 91,566 4,778 3,500 843
2010 16,290 15,498 621 159 12
2009 12,158 11,501 416 190 51
2008 13,988 13,216 519 220 33
2007 8,636 7,795 412 385 44
2006 9,137 8,527 334 232 44
2005 40,478 35,029 2,476 2,314 659
The structural separation of SMEs presented by the following table, separating
businesses in (1) the group goods producers and (2) services producers (Table 2). In the
first group about 62 % of the enterprises operating in the industry, about 27% operate in the
field of construction and about 11% operate in the field of agriculture and fisheries (Graph
1).
While in the second group about 53% of enterprises operating in the area of trade,
18% operate in the area of hotels & restaurants, 12% operate in the area of transport &
communication and 17% operate in other areas of services (Graph 2).
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Table 2: Active enterprises by economic activity and size, 2010
Economic Activity Total
By number of employees
1-4 5-9 10-49 50+
Altogether 100,687 91,566 4,778 3,500 843
Producers of goods 15,911 12,087 1,786 1,637 401
Agriculture & Fishing 1,702 1,591 57 43 11
Industry 9,964 8,051 878 752 283
Construction 4,245 2,445 851 842 107
Producers of services 84,776 79,479 2,992 1,863 442
Trade 44,709 42,699 1,307 629 74
Hotels, Coffee,
Restaurants 15,674 14,829 698 131 16
Transport &
Communication 10,361 9,931 222 166 42
Other Services 14,032 12,020 765 937 310
Graph 1.Producers of goods
11%
62%
27%
Agriculture & Fishing
Industry
Construction
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Graph 2.Producers of services
The following chart shows the trend of creating new enterprises from 2008 to 2010,
divided in 3-month periods. The number of enterprises that take part in the group of the
SMEs has increased from year to year, as for the first time, it has been facilitated the
establishment of a business. Pursuant to Law no.9723, of 3.5.2007 On the National
Registration Center (NRC) business does not have to wait for a long period of time to be
recorded in the fiscal authorities and obtain a VAT number and many other bureaucracies,
but for a period of 1 day a business is recorded and can start its normal activity. Also, in the
offices of NRC can be performed actions regarding capital increase or reduction, withdrawal
of a partner, adding new partners, closure of business and many other actions. This service
has created a great business respiration, primarily because it reduces much time and the
multiple bureaucracies, and secondly reduces corruption significantly, especially with the tax
authorities.
As seen from the graph 3, in the first 3-month period of the year 2008 the graph totals
the highest point. During 2010 there is an increase of the number of new enterprises
comparing it with 2009, which is indicated by the chart below.
53%
18%
12%
17%
Trade
Hotels, Cof f e,
Restaurants
Transport &
Communication
Other Services
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Graph 3.New Enterprises according to 3-months periods
According to the Albanian fiscal legislation, businesses that take part in the group of
SMEs are categorized in:
(1) Businesses subject to local tax on small business and not subject to VAT with a business
figure up to 5 millionslek,
(2) Businesses subject to VAT and local tax on small business with a business figure from 5
millions to 8 millionslek,
(3) Businesses subject to income tax and VAT with a business figure over 8 millionslek.
So, it turns out that the group of SMEs includes a wide spectrum of business, and their
fiscal treatment varies depending on the category they belong to. Albanian governments have
had as a priority the development of SMEs and time after time this has been observed also in
the reduction of fiscal burdens on SMEs. Occasional fiscal changes have had a descending
trend of fiscal burden, facilitating businesses and reducing the informal economy and tax
evasion, concretely:
(1) Income Tax during the period 2005-2006 was reduced by 23% to 20% and by
2008 was reduced to 10%. This reduction of profit tax rate resulted in increased figure of
business, reduction of the informal economy because businesses were encouraged to declare
more due to lower tax burden.
(2) The simplified tax return, which means that businesses are subject to local tax on
small businesses, was reduced from 3% to 1.5% during the period 2005 to 2006. The tax rate
amounted to realize the economic turnover of small business is considered personal income
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and estimated a 10% tax on the difference between revenues and expenses for the training
period. This change had a positive effect in the calculation of tax for small businesses, as they
were facilitated by high fiscal burden and subjectivity and to these businesses were given the
opportunity to identify their costs. Albanian SME needs to put to better use this low tax
system, using the increased profits to technological investments and competitive advantages.
Fasons sector for example: by lowering tax on profit and employers social contributions
will be more competitive in European and regional markets, being a tough competitor of
China, as well.
(3) Social insurance contribution paid by employer decreased from 29% to 20%
during the period 2005 to 2006, then to 9 %, and from 2008 onwards was reduced by 5%
to15% level. This significant reduction in the rate of social insurance that pays the employer,
created more facilities to the business because it reduced significantly the obligation that has
the employer to shed cash in the coffers of social insurance.
All these changes in the fiscal package, in general, had positive effects on SMEs by
creating more breathing at this time of crisis that are going through the economies of all
countries, including Albanias economy. So, the income tax rate was reduced for the medium
enterprises, was reduced the rate of contribution to social insurance, was decreased the excise
for domestic production (beer producers), while small enterprises were offered the possibility
of recognition of costs to calculate the taxable income, which was not allowed before the tax
changes above.
4. Conclusions
On this work it was concluded that the development of SMEs should be strongly
supported by easing fiscal policies. This is because the SMEs have a more active role in the
economy of the country and specifically about 64% of GDP provided by SMEs, about 91% of
employees are employed by SMEs.
Fiscal burdens such as Income tax, social insurance, Tax on Small businesses have
dropped, in order to facilitate the SME businesses. Specifically, profit tax is reduced by 23%
in 2005 to 10%, so a reduction of 13%. Social Insurance paid by the employer from 29% in
2005 decreased to 15%, a 14% decrease. The elimination of Simplified Profit Tax, which is
subject to small businesses, changed the method of calculation of Tax on Small Business,
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which enabled small business to recognize expenses incurred during the fiscal period in
calculating the taxable profit, which was not allowed until 2007.
Promoting entrepreneurship culture through managerial improvement and trainings,
encouraging creative entrepreneurship, workforce training etc....
Development of the growing business, improvement of business climate, increase of
competition through innovation and technological development.
Improvement of SME financing, through increase of access to credit, increase of
government guarantee fund and its extension not only to exporting companies, increase of
funds of microcredit and the strengthening of micro financing institutions.
References:
Law no. 8957, of 17.10.2002 For Small and Medium Enterprises, amended.
Law no. 9723, of 3.5.2007 "On the National Registration Center"
Law no. 8438, of 28.12.1998 Income Tax, amended.
Decision of Ministers Council no. 1058, of 21.10.2009 To determine the minimum limit of
VAT.
Albanian Government Business Strategy and Investments 2007-2013
Joseph Alois Schumpeter The Theory of Economic Development, 1911
www.albinvest.gov.al
Transparency International 2011, http://www.enterprisesurveys.org
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