Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
15 February 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Over Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
www.intellisys.uk.com
15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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15 February 2013
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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15 February 2013
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Page 5 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
330.00
270.90
363.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
539
0.65
CHEMRING GROUP
284.50
217.00
442.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
571
0.65
COBHAM
219.60
186.30
239.50
Neutral
Buy
265
0.83
MEGGITT
448.50
364.30
448.70
Neutral
Sell
377
1.32
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1017.00
770.89
1017.00
Sell
Sell
639
1.08
SMITHS GROUP
1236.00
979.50
1246.00
Neutral
Sell
940
0.70
1601.00
1424.00
1780.00
Neutral
Sell
1410
0.50
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
256.70
173.60
260.40
Neutral
Neutral
Target
244
1.99
INCHCAPE
484.50
305.20
495.70
Neutral
Neutral
467
1.46
LOOKERS
84.00
56.50
84.00
Neutral
Buy
97
1.23
PENDRAGON
22.25
11.50
23.00
Neutral
Buy
31
1.11
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BARCLAYS
319.00
150.55
327.35
Neutral
Sell
Target
228
Beta
1.92
724.20
503.20
730.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1106
1.16
1.86
54.88
25.29
55.45
Sell
Buy
63
347.90
196.60
367.80
Sell
Sell
-100
1.34
STANDARD CHARTERED
1727.50
1228.50
1727.50
Neutral
Sell
1466
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
502.50
348.00
557.00
Neutral
Neutral
548
0.54
DIAGEO
1929.50
1477.00
1929.50
Neutral
Sell
1676
0.55
SABMILLER
3200.00
2348.50
3209.50
Neutral
Buy
3710
0.96
BARR (AG)
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
376.20
267.60
390.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
688
CARCLO
444.00
330.00
503.00
Neutral
Sell
420
0.73
2520.00
2026.00
2520.00
Neutral
Sell
1991
1.01
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
Target
Beta
#NA
225.40
158.30
240.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
351
0.97
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2299.00
2080.27
2573.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
12336
1.44
VICTREX
ELEMENTIS
1585.00
1185.00
1649.00
Neutral
Sell
1430
1.12
SYNTHOMER
206.80
127.40
251.00
Neutral
Buy
231
1.14
ZOTEFOAMS
201.50
136.50
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
395
0.96
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15 February 2013
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Page 6 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
101.00
61.50
130.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
236
Beta
0.49
BALFOUR BEATTY
273.40
237.90
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
992
0.79
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
229.30
114.00
231.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
454
1.49
BELLWAY
1164.00
660.00
1175.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1920
1.10
1848.00
1177.00
1855.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3171
0.64
BOOT (HENRY)
160.00
115.50
165.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
333
0.83
660.50
399.30
660.50
Neutral
Sell
562
1.15
CARILLION
306.70
235.50
344.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
818
1.08
CLARKE (T)
61.13
39.50
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
272
0.82
275.00
188.00
275.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
556
0.58
1409.00
1052.00
1420.00
Neutral
Sell
748
1.14
883.50
499.50
892.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1731
1.00
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER
765.00
348.25
765.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2054
1.23
1356.00
1095.00
1489.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3381
0.93
68.25
49.00
68.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
205
1.04
MARSHALLS
107.50
76.00
110.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
287
1.36
580.00
508.00
717.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3359
0.84
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
NORCROS
15.50
9.25
16.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
35
1.13
PERSIMMON
869.50
532.00
888.50
Neutral
Buy
1133
1.15
REDROW
185.20
107.30
195.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
293
1.05
SIG
139.50
82.30
139.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
473
1.74
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
10.25
4.50
22.50
Sell
Strong Buy
44
0.86
TAYLOR WIMPEY
77.10
40.28
77.25
Neutral
Buy
96
1.58
TRAVIS PERKINS
1283.00
906.50
1297.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2614
1.97
WOLSELEY
3054.00
2121.32
3084.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5265
1.44
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1150.00
781.50
1244.00
Neutral
Sell
720
0.74
674.00
509.00
684.00
Neutral
Buy
888
1.17
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
119.50
105.50
149.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
229
1.29
INVENSYS
346.90
186.10
351.60
Neutral
Sell
317
1.41
LAIRD
239.10
164.80
243.90
Neutral
Sell
74
2.11
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1732.00
1087.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1102
1.00
RENISHAW
1912.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2356
1.25
SPECTRIS
2397.00
1427.00
2415.00
Neutral
Sell
2047
1.50
0.13
0.08
0.22
Neutral
Neutral
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
169.00
114.00
203.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
354
1.58
XAAR
285.00
185.00
292.00
Neutral
Sell
206
1.09
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Target
Beta
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+44 20 3239 8994
Page 7 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
77.50
54.25
92.00
Neutral
Buy
111
1.26
BODYCOTE
504.50
310.30
513.00
Neutral
Neutral
503
1.60
CASTINGS
344.00
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
681
0.98
VESUVIUS
385.00
263.19
391.50
Neutral
Buy
491
2.17
FENNER
418.80
329.30
483.70
Neutral
Buy
544
1.40
HALMA
481.50
373.10
481.50
Neutral
Sell
382
0.76
468.00
297.00
471.50
Neutral
Sell
335
1.35
1180.00
776.00
1199.00
Neutral
Buy
1320
1.40
IMI
METALRAX GROUP
MORGAN CRUCIBLE
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARCO
Target
Beta
3.08
2.93
9.00
Neutral
Neutral
0.83
287.90
220.30
360.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
527
1.80
2836.00
1859.00
2836.00
Sell
Sell
2017
0.97
208.00
177.00
215.00
Neutral
Neutral
218
1.64
81.50
73.25
219.50
Neutral
Sell
76
0.71
2365.00
1900.00
2395.00
Neutral
Sell
2208
0.83
VITEC GROUP
625.50
560.00
740.00
Neutral
Neutral
601
1.37
WEIR GROUP
2170.00
1397.00
2236.00
Neutral
Sell
1979
1.38
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
486.00
449.00
558.00
Neutral
Buy
657
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
260.50
248.60
305.70
Neutral
Sell
207
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
335.80
283.50
361.10
Neutral
Sell
231
0.60
TESCO
370.55
297.05
374.25
Neutral
Sell
287
0.69
45.75
18.88
45.75
Sell
Sell
32
0.81
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1803.00
1167.00
1804.00
Sell
Sell
1436
0.62
CRANSWICK
1000.00
732.50
1001.00
Neutral
Buy
1408
0.51
DAIRY CREST
413.10
290.40
424.50
Neutral
Sell
385
0.92
DEVRO
370.00
278.00
370.00
Sell
Sell
331
0.32
87.00
54.50
180.00
Neutral
Sell
-163
1.27
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
801.50
633.50
834.00
Neutral
Buy
1020
0.69
2583.00
2005.00
2603.00
Neutral
Buy
3464
0.58
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15 February 2013
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Page 8 of 17
Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
28.75
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
33
0.69
397.90
222.40
397.90
Neutral
Sell
354
0.53
1360.00
1000.00
1586.00
Neutral
Sell
961
1.28
660.00
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
275
0.96
27.46
12.67
29.80
Neutral
Buy
36
1.51
7.30
2.76
9.30
Neutral
Sell
1.08
27.00
19.50
55.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
108
0.98
HALFORDS GROUP
330.20
189.00
356.80
Neutral
Buy
491
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
796.00
606.50
863.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1490
0.51
Target
Beta
49.75
38.00
85.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
82
1.26
KINGFISHER
275.70
254.10
313.80
Neutral
Buy
383
0.95
389.50
312.20
398.80
Neutral
Buy
506
0.65
69.00
38.50
71.00
Neutral
Sell
59
1.03
301.25
152.00
362.00
Neutral
Buy
333
0.46
NEXT
4182.00
2708.00
4182.00
Sell
Sell
3632
0.69
TED BAKER
1182.00
766.00
1210.00
Neutral
Sell
643
0.56
67.50
31.25
68.00
Neutral
Sell
50
1.48
DARTY
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
142.50
119.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
102
0.44
CONSORT MEDICAL
660.50
565.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
556
0.39
OPTOS
208.75
160.00
279.25
Neutral
Sell
176
1.19
702.50
580.00
734.00
Neutral
Sell
637
0.41
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
645.00
487.50
720.50
Neutral
Neutral
632
0.43
HEADLAM GROUP
348.25
263.00
355.00
Neutral
Sell
311
0.93
85.50
55.25
110.25
Neutral
Buy
109
0.75
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
925.00
469.00
932.50
Neutral
Sell
582
0.78
CSR
385.60
194.60
389.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1256
1.20
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
63.00
23.50
68.00
Neutral
Sell
48
0.88
518.00
383.50
717.00
Neutral
Neutral
530
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
167.70
129.60
174.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
689
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
200.00
165.75
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-503
0.93
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15 February 2013
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Page 9 of 17
Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1273.00
962.50
1277.00
Neutral
Sell
425
AMLIN
410.50
312.90
412.20
Neutral
Sell
-2774
0.45
BEAZLEY
210.70
132.50
210.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1438
0.59
CATLIN GROUP
513.50
399.00
540.00
Neutral
Buy
733
0.30
HISCOX
480.80
371.30
489.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1948
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
Target
Beta
0.54
794.00
659.00
816.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3007
0.30
133.40
97.65
134.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1608
0.42
NOVAE GROUP
439.00
340.00
440.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1813
0.46
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2500.00
1841.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4342
1.02
ENTERPRISE INNS
103.40
49.00
105.10
Neutral
Sell
74
1.59
TUI TRAVEL
316.70
158.00
316.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
769
0.98
779.50
680.00
798.00
Neutral
Sell
634
0.38
GREENE KING
705.50
474.30
707.50
Neutral
Sell
597
0.92
LADBROKES
223.60
145.90
224.30
Neutral
Sell
177
0.93
1944.00
1381.61
1947.00
Sell
Sell
1577
1.17
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
555.00
455.40
568.50
Neutral
Neutral
597
1.36
337.60
217.40
339.20
Neutral
Sell
289
1.08
142.20
91.90
169.00
Neutral
Sell
88
1.24
11.25
5.61
13.12
Neutral
Strong Buy
45
1.25
155.80
111.00
156.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
486
0.99
0.76
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
383.30
269.20
392.00
Neutral
Sell
310
WETHERSPOON (JD)
503.00
371.30
548.50
Neutral
Buy
717
0.70
WHITBREAD
2651.00
1637.00
2692.00
Neutral
Sell
1878
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
400.00
222.40
403.30
Neutral
Sell
269
0.87
MARSTON'S
139.70
94.25
140.20
Neutral
Sell
25
1.20
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
AVIVA
362.10
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1106
1.25
CHESNARA
230.00
155.25
230.00
Neutral
Buy
335
0.70
150.40
106.00
153.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
274
1.70
OLD MUTUAL
196.00
138.70
196.50
Neutral
Sell
166
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
945.50
660.00
973.00
Neutral
Sell
875
1.70
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
460.20
303.40
469.00
Neutral
Sell
405
0.85
www.intellisys.uk.com
15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
AEGIS GROUP
238.30
153.20
238.50
Neutral
Sell
-601
1.28
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
110.13
104.00
146.50
Buy
Strong Buy
1540
0.35
831.00
635.50
838.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
149
0.54
58.50
28.50
60.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3136
0.98
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
666.50
363.50
666.50
Sell
Strong Buy
5502
1.12
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
932.00
672.50
951.50
Neutral
Sell
-31
1.00
INFORMA
485.70
340.00
491.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
269
1.54
ITE GROUP
267.00
180.00
273.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1212
1.42
ITV
113.40
69.45
118.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1494
1.54
13.00
4.88
15.00
Neutral
Buy
340
1.25
1207.00
1111.00
1294.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2360
0.64
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
71.50
36.25
77.75
Neutral
Buy
511
0.76
274.00
237.62
377.50
Neutral
Sell
-592
0.15
0.51
30.23
26.85
31.04
Neutral
Sell
285
STV GROUP
129.50
81.50
130.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
726
0.78
ST.IVES
120.00
67.50
125.00
Neutral
Sell
-293
1.49
THOMSON REUTERS
TRINITY MIRROR
115.25
25.50
115.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
2243
1.58
UBM
756.00
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1157
1.31
WILMINGTON GROUP
157.00
82.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
209
0.84
WPP
1019.00
743.00
1025.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
835
1.34
HIBU
0.44
0.26
4.68
Neutral
Sell
26
1.08
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2013.00
1664.00
2715.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3316
1.72
289.00
221.25
340.00
Neutral
Neutral
316
0.99
ANTOFAGASTA
1116.00
991.00
1381.00
Neutral
Neutral
1067
1.39
BHP BILLITON
2225.00
1681.00
2225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3946
1.44
368.00
240.84
599.98
Neutral
Sell
56
2.01
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
5800.00
4596.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
3311
0.33
RIO TINTO
3745.50
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Neutral
3978
1.51
6.09
3.75
31.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
188
0.89
832.50
1502.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2892
2.18
785.80
1221.50
Neutral
Neutral
1178
1.86
ANGLO AMERICAN
ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP
LONMIN
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
XSTRATA
1185.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1137.50
1000.50
1547.00
Neutral
Neutral
1227
0.80
BP
450.05
391.95
504.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1546
1.05
CAIRN ENERGY
285.10
248.20
360.00
Neutral
Sell
-28
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
10.50
7.86
12.50
Neutral
Buy
15
0.90
861.50
688.00
968.00
Neutral
Sell
524
1.29
1.34
64.00
55.00
187.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
297
389.20
321.30
449.70
Neutral
Sell
294
1.44
2171.50
2039.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
10957
0.86
365.90
254.90
400.00
Buy
Sell
252
0.52
1240.00
1138.00
1601.00
Neutral
Sell
797
1.05
804.50
651.50
875.50
Neutral
Neutral
840
1.35
www.intellisys.uk.com
15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
144.50
102.70
144.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
272
PZ CUSSONS
397.80
296.10
415.60
Neutral
Sell
337
0.70
4410.00
3300.00
4419.00
Neutral
Neutral
4449
0.36
Target
0.84
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.99
0.99
3.98
Buy
Strong Buy
155
1.01
2927.50
2591.00
3168.00
Neutral
Sell
-40117
0.49
BTG
323.80
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
916
0.62
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
650.00
418.33
658.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5808
0.25
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
Target
Beta
1465.00
1317.50
1507.50
Neutral
Sell
-18124
0.50
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
2.37
2.05
5.80
Buy
Strong Buy
67
0.62
PHYTOPHARM
9.88
5.88
12.75
Buy
Sell
0.88
2027.00
1727.00
2300.00
Neutral
Sell
-3913
0.64
SHIRE
SKYEPHARMA
67.13
31.00
101.50
Neutral
Sell
-943
0.71
VERNALIS
23.63
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
486
0.83
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
371.90
274.50
382.10
Neutral
Sell
-601
1.14
BRITISH LAND
580.50
466.10
582.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1540
1.04
29.50
22.75
34.25
Sell
Strong Buy
149
0.81
806.00
595.00
806.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3136
0.71
DERWENT LONDON
2154.00
1684.00
2205.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5502
1.20
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
159.00
121.75
176.00
Neutral
Sell
-31
0.98
GRAINGER
133.20
83.10
139.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
269
1.53
482.40
345.60
502.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1212
1.06
1.16
HAMMERSON
486.80
385.70
497.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
1494
HELICAL BAR
236.00
164.00
247.00
Neutral
Buy
340
0.76
829.00
672.50
832.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2360
1.15
CAPITAL SHOPCTS.GROUP
361.10
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Buy
511
1.10
MCKAY SECURITIES
142.00
120.25
144.00
Neutral
Sell
-592
0.71
367.50
310.00
390.00
Neutral
Sell
285
0.41
362.75
311.00
364.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
726
0.37
66.25
32.50
66.25
Sell
Sell
-293
1.17
534.50
300.80
568.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2243
0.73
SHAFTESBURY
573.00
482.20
582.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1157
1.02
SEGRO
251.50
209.40
259.20
Neutral
Sell
209
1.69
ST MODWEN PROPS.
257.60
145.50
260.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
835
1.55
194.00
147.00
194.00
Neutral
Sell
26
1.04
UNITE GROUP
301.50
180.25
303.00
Neutral
Sell
67
1.75
1.88
1.00
4.00
Sell
Sell
-1070
1.00
335.00
213.25
344.90
Neutral
Sell
1.02
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
www.intellisys.uk.com
15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
157.80
101.25
159.70
Neutral
Sell
123
0.75
2213.00
1469.00
2232.00
Neutral
Sell
1320
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
475.00
292.40
507.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1363
0.99
KOFAX
260.75
240.00
325.75
Neutral
Buy
324
1.09
25.00
18.25
25.50
Neutral
Sell
22
0.83
657.50
426.17
657.50
Neutral
Buy
979
0.80
PHOENIX IT GROUP
157.00
135.00
231.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
314
0.74
72.50
70.25
92.25
Neutral
Sell
-92
0.51
1820.00
1275.00
1820.00
Neutral
Buy
2094
0.73
333.60
247.70
343.20
Neutral
Buy
417
0.73
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
426.40
237.30
426.40
Neutral
Sell
167
BREWIN DOLPHIN
204.70
136.30
222.00
Neutral
Sell
124
0.70
10900.00
9175.00
11105.00
Neutral
Sell
10209
0.83
CAMELLIA
Target
Beta
1.09
356.25
247.50
356.25
Neutral
Sell
177
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
171.50
128.50
189.75
Neutral
Sell
106
0.68
1027.00
673.50
1030.00
Neutral
Sell
204
0.91
102.00
64.75
110.00
Neutral
Neutral
102
0.89
3.65
0.77
3.65
Sell
Strong Buy
42
0.70
HENDERSON GROUP
160.50
90.55
165.60
Neutral
Sell
50
1.45
ICAP
350.90
281.40
431.50
Neutral
Sell
209
1.08
1.68
HELPHIRE GROUP
375.10
227.30
375.10
Neutral
Sell
205
INVESTEC
493.60
310.40
495.80
Neutral
Sell
96
1.56
1341.00
880.00
1341.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3535
1.15
111.10
63.25
152.50
Neutral
Sell
95
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
MAN GROUP
1450.00
1151.00
1472.00
Neutral
Sell
1128
0.74
SCHRODERS
1969.00
1166.00
1999.00
Neutral
Sell
1278
1.32
SCHRODERS NV
1548.00
966.00
1594.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4276
1.28
www.intellisys.uk.com
15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
205.00
157.75
219.50
Neutral
Buy
287
0.91
AGGREKO
1641.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Sell
1179
1.02
AMEC
1042.00
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Neutral
1003
1.03
484.50
212.20
485.70
Neutral
Sell
285
1.61
1043.00
721.50
1052.00
Neutral
Sell
611
0.47
442.00
317.00
445.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
743
0.76
1183.00
908.50
1183.00
Neutral
Sell
762
0.53
UK MAIL GROUP
369.50
214.00
375.00
Neutral
Buy
415
0.37
CAPITA
820.00
602.00
831.00
Neutral
Sell
475
0.50
43.25
25.50
50.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
68
0.77
COMPASS GROUP
780.00
616.00
780.50
Neutral
Sell
561
0.73
BERENDSEN
620.50
456.60
634.00
Neutral
Buy
890
1.04
DE LA RUE
946.50
885.50
1075.00
Neutral
Sell
559
#NA
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
DIGNITY
1240.00
755.50
1250.00
Neutral
Sell
717
0.21
DIPLOMA
565.00
385.00
587.00
Neutral
Sell
448
0.95
ELECTROCOMP.
255.10
195.20
263.00
Neutral
Buy
295
1.04
FILTRONA
569.00
400.00
597.00
Neutral
Sell
326
1.09
G4S
284.30
240.00
292.10
Neutral
Sell
267
0.58
94.85
66.40
95.50
Neutral
Buy
112
1.09
HOMESERVE
239.00
137.50
255.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
447
0.91
INTERSERVE
469.70
270.10
471.50
Neutral
Buy
646
1.26
3236.00
2236.00
3236.00
Neutral
Sell
1328
0.77
41.75
26.50
42.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
86
1.16
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
28.00
21.25
39.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
50
0.69
MENZIES (JOHN)
709.50
542.00
755.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1224
1.42
409.10
341.40
497.00
Neutral
Sell
297
1.40
MITIE GROUP
287.90
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Buy
317
0.54
OFFICE2OFFICE
101.00
91.50
163.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
221
0.33
PAYPOINT
835.00
565.00
893.50
Neutral
Sell
640
0.69
PREMIER FARNELL
215.00
153.20
228.80
Neutral
Buy
261
1.31
REGUS
126.50
82.65
127.80
Neutral
Sell
100
1.42
89.00
69.40
97.95
Neutral
Sell
50
1.27
471.00
378.11
473.50
Neutral
Buy
564
0.90
HAYS
INTERTEK GROUP
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RICARDO
403.50
304.50
412.00
Neutral
Neutral
435
0.84
ROBERT WALTERS
206.25
176.25
264.63
Neutral
Buy
289
1.19
RPC GROUP
437.00
348.30
447.00
Neutral
Buy
493
0.76
RPS GROUP
235.00
197.00
256.60
Neutral
Neutral
227
1.48
SERCO GROUP
562.00
509.50
602.00
Neutral
Sell
533
0.59
SHANKS GROUP
82.00
75.80
107.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
153
1.44
SPEEDY HIRE
42.00
22.25
42.00
Sell
Buy
48
1.24
124.75
70.00
129.00
Neutral
Sell
47
0.53
57.75
39.50
57.75
Neutral
Neutral
56
0.92
329.38
234.75
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
567
0.85
71.50
42.00
75.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
169
0.78
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
www.intellisys.uk.com
15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
273.70
200.70
275.90
Neutral
Neutral
295
41.50
27.28
41.74
Neutral
Strong Buy
74
0.68
649.00
390.80
661.00
Neutral
Sell
549
0.52
Beta
0.92
78.90
67.00
85.20
Neutral
Buy
116
1.24
1000.00
612.00
1000.00
Neutral
Sell
652
0.10
167.55
154.45
191.25
Neutral
Sell
147
0.55
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
225.90
178.00
232.80
Neutral
Sell
177
384.50
309.50
425.00
Neutral
Neutral
411
0.97
1436.00
1150.00
1440.00
Neutral
Neutral
1371
0.80
CLARKSON
Target
Beta
1.29
EASYJET
991.50
431.70
1002.00
Neutral
Sell
600
0.75
FIRST GROUP
191.30
175.70
303.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
482
0.92
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
933.00
535.00
933.00
Neutral
Sell
346
0.75
1370.00
1086.00
1393.00
Neutral
Buy
1622
0.91
GO-AHEAD GROUP
NATIONAL EXPRESS
212.00
164.50
252.00
Neutral
Neutral
219
1.33
NORTHGATE
317.75
159.60
336.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
558
1.40
STAGECOACH GROUP
297.50
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
330
0.90
66.00
31.00
90.50
Sell
Sell
-32
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
344.50
292.10
353.10
Neutral
Buy
466
0.47
NATIONAL GRID
686.50
626.00
717.50
Neutral
Buy
805
0.50
PENNON GROUP
655.00
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
750
0.59
SSE
1409.00
1276.00
1466.00
Neutral
Buy
1697
0.43
SEVERN TRENT
1579.00
1507.00
1796.00
Neutral
Sell
1449
0.35
718.50
594.00
747.50
Neutral
Sell
643
0.51
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it form the basis of any contract
entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
IntelliSys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any
person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
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may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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