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15 February 2013

Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Over Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6

Automobiles & Parts


Banks
Beverages

Over Valued .........................................................................................6


Under Valued ..................................................................................6

Under Valued ..................................................................................6


Under Valued ....................................................7
Construction & Building Materials

Chemicals

Electronics & Electrical Equipment


Engineering & Machinery
Food & Drug Stores

Over Valued ..................................................7


Over Valued ................................................................8

Over Valued .......................................................................8


Under Valued ........................................................8

Food Producers & Processors


Under Valued ..............................................................................9
General Retail
Over Valued .........................................................................................9
Heath

Over Valued ..........................................................9


Over Valued ...............................................9

Household Goods & Textiles

Information Technology & Hardware


Under Valued ................................................................................... 10
Insurance
Over Valued ..................................................................... 10
Leisure & Hotels
Life Assurance

Over Valued .................................................................... 10


Over Valued ................................................................ 11

Media & Entertainment


Under Valued ...................................................................................... 11
Mining
Under Valued ................................................................................... 11
Oil & Gas
Personal Care & Household Products

Over Valued .......................................... 12


Over Valued ................................................ 12

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology


Under Valued ............................................................................... 12
Real Estate
Under Valued ..................................................... 13
Software & Computer Services
Speciality & Other Finance
Support Services

Over Valued .......................................................... 13


Over Valued ..................................................................... 14

Over Valued ....................................................... 15


Telecommunication Services
Under
Valued
Transport
................................................................................... 15
Under
Valued
Utilities
....................................................................................... 15

DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 2 of 17

Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%

120.0%

110.0%

110.0%

100.0%

100.0%

90.0%

90.0%

80.0%

80.0%

70.0%

70.0%

60.0%

60.0%

50.0%

50.0%

40.0%

40.0%

30.0%

30.0%

20.0%

20.0%
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell

Trend

Source: Intellisys

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 3 of 17

Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)

RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets


Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions. If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other
equity investments, you should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be
suitable for everyone. The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise
and you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency,
fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 4 of 17

How to use the report


This daily report is typically available for download as a PDF from 7am - well in advance of the markets
open - and is based upon previous days closing prices.
We have kept the report deliberately simple for quick reading and identification of the shares most likely to
be active as can be seen from the following:

Longer term action based


upon implied target price
Todays action
Sector

Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics

Closing price

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

Company

Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25

12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50

12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Latest 12 month Hi/Lo for


the share price

LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29

Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31

eta measures a shares


volatility/risk relative to
market (see below)

Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0

Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)

eta =1.0

Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)

eta >1.0

Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 5 of 17

Over Valued

Aerospace & Defence


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BAE SYSTEMS

330.00

270.90

363.60

Neutral

Strong Buy

539

0.65

CHEMRING GROUP

284.50

217.00

442.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

571

0.65

COBHAM

219.60

186.30

239.50

Neutral

Buy

265

0.83

MEGGITT

448.50

364.30

448.70

Neutral

Sell

377

1.32

ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS

1017.00

770.89

1017.00

Sell

Sell

639

1.08

SMITHS GROUP

1236.00

979.50

1246.00

Neutral

Sell

940

0.70

ULTRA ELECTRONICS HDG.

1601.00

1424.00

1780.00

Neutral

Sell

1410

0.50

Beta

Under Valued

Automobiles & Parts


Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GKN

256.70

173.60

260.40

Neutral

Neutral

Target
244

1.99

INCHCAPE

484.50

305.20

495.70

Neutral

Neutral

467

1.46

LOOKERS

84.00

56.50

84.00

Neutral

Buy

97

1.23

PENDRAGON

22.25

11.50

23.00

Neutral

Buy

31

1.11

Over Valued

Banks
Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BARCLAYS

319.00

150.55

327.35

Neutral

Sell

Target
228

Beta
1.92

HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)

724.20

503.20

730.90

Neutral

Strong Buy

1106

1.16
1.86

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP

54.88

25.29

55.45

Sell

Buy

63

ROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP.

347.90

196.60

367.80

Sell

Sell

-100

1.34

STANDARD CHARTERED

1727.50

1228.50

1727.50

Neutral

Sell

1466

1.70

Under Valued

Beverages
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

502.50

348.00

557.00

Neutral

Neutral

548

0.54

DIAGEO

1929.50

1477.00

1929.50

Neutral

Sell

1676

0.55

SABMILLER

3200.00

2348.50

3209.50

Neutral

Buy

3710

0.96

BARR (AG)

Beta

Under Valued

Chemicals
Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)

376.20

267.60

390.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

688

CARCLO

444.00

330.00

503.00

Neutral

Sell

420

0.73

2520.00

2026.00

2520.00

Neutral

Sell

1991

1.01

CRODA INTERNATIONAL

Target

Beta
#NA

225.40

158.30

240.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

351

0.97

JOHNSON MATTHEY

2299.00

2080.27

2573.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

12336

1.44

VICTREX

ELEMENTIS

1585.00

1185.00

1649.00

Neutral

Sell

1430

1.12

SYNTHOMER

206.80

127.40

251.00

Neutral

Buy

231

1.14

ZOTEFOAMS

201.50

136.50

225.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

395

0.96

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 6 of 17

Under Valued

Construction & Building Materials


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ALUMASC GROUP

101.00

61.50

130.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

Target
236

Beta
0.49

BALFOUR BEATTY

273.40

237.90

320.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

992

0.79

BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS

229.30

114.00

231.10

Neutral

Strong Buy

454

1.49

BELLWAY

1164.00

660.00

1175.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1920

1.10

BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE)

1848.00

1177.00

1855.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3171

0.64

BOOT (HENRY)

160.00

115.50

165.25

Neutral

Strong Buy

333

0.83

BOVIS HOMES GROUP

660.50

399.30

660.50

Neutral

Sell

562

1.15

CARILLION

306.70

235.50

344.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

818

1.08

CLARKE (T)

61.13

39.50

61.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

272

0.82

275.00

188.00

275.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

556

0.58

1409.00

1052.00

1420.00

Neutral

Sell

748

1.14

883.50

499.50

892.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1731

1.00

COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER

765.00

348.25

765.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2054

1.23

1356.00

1095.00

1489.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3381

0.93

68.25

49.00

68.25

Neutral

Strong Buy

205

1.04

MARSHALLS

107.50

76.00

110.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

287

1.36

MORGAN SINDALL GROUP

580.00

508.00

717.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

3359

0.84

KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR

NORCROS

15.50

9.25

16.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

35

1.13

PERSIMMON

869.50

532.00

888.50

Neutral

Buy

1133

1.15

REDROW

185.20

107.30

195.10

Neutral

Strong Buy

293

1.05

SIG

139.50

82.30

139.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

473

1.74

SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS

10.25

4.50

22.50

Sell

Strong Buy

44

0.86

TAYLOR WIMPEY

77.10

40.28

77.25

Neutral

Buy

96

1.58

TRAVIS PERKINS

1283.00

906.50

1297.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2614

1.97

WOLSELEY

3054.00

2121.32

3084.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

5265

1.44

Over Valued

Electronics & Electrical Equipment


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

1150.00

781.50

1244.00

Neutral

Sell

720

0.74

DOMINO PRINTING SCIENCES

674.00

509.00

684.00

Neutral

Buy

888

1.17

E2V TECHNOLOGIES

119.50

105.50

149.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

229

1.29

INVENSYS

346.90

186.10

351.60

Neutral

Sell

317

1.41

LAIRD

239.10

164.80

243.90

Neutral

Sell

74

2.11

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS

1732.00

1087.00

1752.00

Neutral

Sell

1102

1.00

RENISHAW

1912.00

1260.00

2081.00

Neutral

Buy

2356

1.25

SPECTRIS

2397.00

1427.00

2415.00

Neutral

Sell

2047

1.50

0.13

0.08

0.22

Neutral

Neutral

0.84

TT ELECTRONICS

169.00

114.00

203.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

354

1.58

XAAR

285.00

185.00

292.00

Neutral

Sell

206

1.09

DIALIGHT

BIOME TECHNOLOGIES

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

Target

Beta

15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 7 of 17

Over Valued

Engineering & Machinery


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP

77.50

54.25

92.00

Neutral

Buy

111

1.26

BODYCOTE

504.50

310.30

513.00

Neutral

Neutral

503

1.60

CASTINGS

344.00

277.75

358.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

681

0.98

VESUVIUS

385.00

263.19

391.50

Neutral

Buy

491

2.17

FENNER

418.80

329.30

483.70

Neutral

Buy

544

1.40

HALMA

481.50

373.10

481.50

Neutral

Sell

382

0.76

HILL & SMITH

468.00

297.00

471.50

Neutral

Sell

335

1.35

1180.00

776.00

1199.00

Neutral

Buy

1320

1.40

IMI
METALRAX GROUP
MORGAN CRUCIBLE
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARCO

Target

Beta

3.08

2.93

9.00

Neutral

Neutral

0.83

287.90

220.30

360.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

527

1.80

2836.00

1859.00

2836.00

Sell

Sell

2017

0.97

208.00

177.00

215.00

Neutral

Neutral

218

1.64

81.50

73.25

219.50

Neutral

Sell

76

0.71

2365.00

1900.00

2395.00

Neutral

Sell

2208

0.83

VITEC GROUP

625.50

560.00

740.00

Neutral

Neutral

601

1.37

WEIR GROUP

2170.00

1397.00

2236.00

Neutral

Sell

1979

1.38

Over Valued

Food & Drug Stores


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GREGGS

486.00

449.00

558.00

Neutral

Buy

657

0.47

MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.

260.50

248.60

305.70

Neutral

Sell

207

0.39

SAINSBURY (J)

335.80

283.50

361.10

Neutral

Sell

231

0.60

TESCO

370.55

297.05

374.25

Neutral

Sell

287

0.69

45.75

18.88

45.75

Sell

Sell

32

0.81

THORNTONS

Beta

Under Valued

Food Producers & Processors


Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS

1803.00

1167.00

1804.00

Sell

Sell

1436

0.62

CRANSWICK

1000.00

732.50

1001.00

Neutral

Buy

1408

0.51

DAIRY CREST

413.10

290.40

424.50

Neutral

Sell

385

0.92

DEVRO

370.00

278.00

370.00

Sell

Sell

331

0.32

87.00

54.50

180.00

Neutral

Sell

-163

1.27

PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)

801.50

633.50

834.00

Neutral

Buy

1020

0.69

2583.00

2005.00

2603.00

Neutral

Buy

3464

0.58

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 8 of 17

Under Valued

General Retail
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS

28.75

20.50

29.50

Neutral

Buy

33

0.69

397.90

222.40

397.90

Neutral

Sell

354

0.53

1360.00

1000.00

1586.00

Neutral

Sell

961

1.28

660.00

585.00

728.50

Neutral

Sell

275

0.96

27.46

12.67

29.80

Neutral

Buy

36

1.51

7.30

2.76

9.30

Neutral

Sell

1.08

27.00

19.50

55.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

108

0.98

HALFORDS GROUP

330.20

189.00

356.80

Neutral

Buy

491

0.68

JD SPORTS FASHION

796.00

606.50

863.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1490

0.51

BROWN (N) GROUP


BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP

Target

Beta

49.75

38.00

85.70

Neutral

Strong Buy

82

1.26

KINGFISHER

275.70

254.10

313.80

Neutral

Buy

383

0.95

MARKS & SPENCER GROUP

389.50

312.20

398.80

Neutral

Buy

506

0.65

69.00

38.50

71.00

Neutral

Sell

59

1.03

301.25

152.00

362.00

Neutral

Buy

333

0.46

NEXT

4182.00

2708.00

4182.00

Sell

Sell

3632

0.69

TED BAKER

1182.00

766.00

1210.00

Neutral

Sell

643

0.56

67.50

31.25

68.00

Neutral

Sell

50

1.48

DARTY

MOSS BROTHERS GROUP


MOTHERCARE

TOPPS TILES

Over Valued

Heath
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BIOQUELL

142.50

119.00

160.00

Neutral

Sell

Target
102

0.44

CONSORT MEDICAL

660.50

565.00

831.50

Neutral

Sell

556

0.39

OPTOS

208.75

160.00

279.25

Neutral

Sell

176

1.19

SMITH & NEPHEW

702.50

580.00

734.00

Neutral

Sell

637

0.41

Over Valued

Household Goods & Textiles


Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GAMES WORKSHOP

645.00

487.50

720.50

Neutral

Neutral

632

0.43

HEADLAM GROUP

348.25

263.00

355.00

Neutral

Sell

311

0.93

85.50

55.25

110.25

Neutral

Buy

109

0.75

HORNBY

Target

Over Valued

Information Technology & Hardware


Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ARM HOLDINGS

925.00

469.00

932.50

Neutral

Sell

582

0.78

CSR

385.60

194.60

389.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

1256

1.20

FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES

Target

Beta

63.00

23.50

68.00

Neutral

Sell

48

0.88

518.00

383.50

717.00

Neutral

Neutral

530

1.08

SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS

167.70

129.60

174.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

689

0.94

WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS

200.00

165.75

230.00

Neutral

Sell

-503

0.93

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

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15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 9 of 17

Under Valued

Insurance
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

1273.00

962.50

1277.00

Neutral

Sell

425

AMLIN

410.50

312.90

412.20

Neutral

Sell

-2774

0.45

BEAZLEY

210.70

132.50

210.90

Neutral

Strong Buy

1438

0.59

CATLIN GROUP

513.50

399.00

540.00

Neutral

Buy

733

0.30

HISCOX

480.80

371.30

489.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

1948

0.48

ADMIRAL GROUP

Target

Beta
0.54

JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON

794.00

659.00

816.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3007

0.30

RSA INSURANCE GROUP

133.40

97.65

134.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

1608

0.42

NOVAE GROUP

439.00

340.00

440.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1813

0.46

Over Valued

Leisure & Hotels


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

2500.00

1841.00

2628.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

4342

1.02

ENTERPRISE INNS

103.40

49.00

105.10

Neutral

Sell

74

1.59

TUI TRAVEL

316.70

158.00

316.70

Neutral

Strong Buy

769

0.98

FULLER SMITH 'A'

779.50

680.00

798.00

Neutral

Sell

634

0.38

GREENE KING

705.50

474.30

707.50

Neutral

Sell

597

0.92

LADBROKES

223.60

145.90

224.30

Neutral

Sell

177

0.93

1944.00

1381.61

1947.00

Sell

Sell

1577

1.17

CARNIVAL

ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.

555.00

455.40

568.50

Neutral

Neutral

597

1.36

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS

337.60

217.40

339.20

Neutral

Sell

289

1.08

BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM.

142.20

91.90

169.00

Neutral

Sell

88

1.24

11.25

5.61

13.12

Neutral

Strong Buy

45

1.25

155.80

111.00

156.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

486

0.99
0.76

PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP

383.30

269.20

392.00

Neutral

Sell

310

WETHERSPOON (JD)

503.00

371.30

548.50

Neutral

Buy

717

0.70

WHITBREAD

2651.00

1637.00

2692.00

Neutral

Sell

1878

0.99

WILLIAM HILL

400.00

222.40

403.30

Neutral

Sell

269

0.87

MARSTON'S

139.70

94.25

140.20

Neutral

Sell

25

1.20

Over Valued

Life Assurance
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

AVIVA

362.10

255.30

388.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

1106

1.25

CHESNARA

230.00

155.25

230.00

Neutral

Buy

335

0.70

LEGAL & GENERAL

150.40

106.00

153.10

Neutral

Strong Buy

274

1.70

OLD MUTUAL

196.00

138.70

196.50

Neutral

Sell

166

1.57

PRUDENTIAL

945.50

660.00

973.00

Neutral

Sell

875

1.70

ST.JAMES'S PLACE

460.20

303.40

469.00

Neutral

Sell

405

0.85

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 10 of 17

Over Valued

Media & Entertainment


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

AEGIS GROUP

238.30

153.20

238.50

Neutral

Sell

-601

1.28

BLOOMSBURY PBL.

110.13

104.00

146.50

Buy

Strong Buy

1540

0.35

BRITISH SKY BCAST.GROUP

831.00

635.50

838.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

149

0.54

58.50

28.50

60.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3136

0.98

CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'

666.50

363.50

666.50

Sell

Strong Buy

5502

1.12

EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR

932.00

672.50

951.50

Neutral

Sell

-31

1.00

INFORMA

485.70

340.00

491.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

269

1.54

ITE GROUP

267.00

180.00

273.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

1212

1.42

ITV

113.40

69.45

118.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

1494

1.54

13.00

4.88

15.00

Neutral

Buy

340

1.25

1207.00

1111.00

1294.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2360

0.64

JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON

71.50

36.25

77.75

Neutral

Buy

511

0.76

274.00

237.62

377.50

Neutral

Sell

-592

0.15
0.51

30.23

26.85

31.04

Neutral

Sell

285

STV GROUP

129.50

81.50

130.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

726

0.78

ST.IVES

120.00

67.50

125.00

Neutral

Sell

-293

1.49

THOMSON REUTERS

TRINITY MIRROR

115.25

25.50

115.25

Neutral

Strong Buy

2243

1.58

UBM

756.00

511.00

788.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1157

1.31

WILMINGTON GROUP

157.00

82.00

160.00

Neutral

Sell

209

0.84

WPP

1019.00

743.00

1025.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

835

1.34

HIBU

0.44

0.26

4.68

Neutral

Sell

26

1.08

Under Valued

Mining
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

2013.00

1664.00

2715.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

3316

1.72

289.00

221.25

340.00

Neutral

Neutral

316

0.99

ANTOFAGASTA

1116.00

991.00

1381.00

Neutral

Neutral

1067

1.39

BHP BILLITON

2225.00

1681.00

2225.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3946

1.44

368.00

240.84

599.98

Neutral

Sell

56

2.01

RANDGOLD RESOURCES

5800.00

4596.00

7775.00

Neutral

Sell

3311

0.33

RIO TINTO

3745.50

2715.50

3757.00

Neutral

Neutral

3978

1.51

6.09

3.75

31.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

188

0.89

832.50

1502.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2892

2.18

785.80

1221.50

Neutral

Neutral

1178

1.86

ANGLO AMERICAN
ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP

LONMIN

COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
XSTRATA

1185.00

Under Valued

Oil & Gas


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1137.50

1000.50

1547.00

Neutral

Neutral

1227

0.80

BP

450.05

391.95

504.60

Neutral

Strong Buy

1546

1.05

CAIRN ENERGY

285.10

248.20

360.00

Neutral

Sell

-28

1.32

BG GROUP

FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)

10.50

7.86

12.50

Neutral

Buy

15

0.90

861.50

688.00

968.00

Neutral

Sell

524

1.29
1.34

64.00

55.00

187.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

297

389.20

321.30

449.70

Neutral

Sell

294

1.44

2171.50

2039.00

2366.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

10957

0.86

365.90

254.90

400.00

Buy

Sell

252

0.52

1240.00

1138.00

1601.00

Neutral

Sell

797

1.05

804.50

651.50

875.50

Neutral

Neutral

840

1.35

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 11 of 17

Over Valued

Personal Care & Household Products


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

MCBRIDE

144.50

102.70

144.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

272

PZ CUSSONS

397.80

296.10

415.60

Neutral

Sell

337

0.70

4410.00

3300.00

4419.00

Neutral

Neutral

4449

0.36

RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP

Target

0.84

Over Valued

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology


Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

0.99

0.99

3.98

Buy

Strong Buy

155

1.01

2927.50

2591.00

3168.00

Neutral

Sell

-40117

0.49

BTG

323.80

300.30

423.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

916

0.62

DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS

650.00

418.33

658.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

5808

0.25

ARK THERAPEUTICS GP.


ASTRAZENECA

GLAXOSMITHKLINE

Target

Beta

1465.00

1317.50

1507.50

Neutral

Sell

-18124

0.50

OXFORD BIOMEDICA

2.37

2.05

5.80

Buy

Strong Buy

67

0.62

PHYTOPHARM

9.88

5.88

12.75

Buy

Sell

0.88

2027.00

1727.00

2300.00

Neutral

Sell

-3913

0.64

SHIRE
SKYEPHARMA

67.13

31.00

101.50

Neutral

Sell

-943

0.71

VERNALIS

23.63

21.63

27.38

Neutral

Strong Buy

486

0.83

Under Valued

Real Estate
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

BIG YELLOW GROUP

371.90

274.50

382.10

Neutral

Sell

-601

1.14

BRITISH LAND

580.50

466.10

582.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1540

1.04

29.50

22.75

34.25

Sell

Strong Buy

149

0.81

806.00

595.00

806.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3136

0.71

DERWENT LONDON

2154.00

1684.00

2205.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

5502

1.20

DEVELOPMENT SECS.

159.00

121.75

176.00

Neutral

Sell

-31

0.98

GRAINGER

133.20

83.10

139.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

269

1.53

GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES

482.40

345.60

502.00

Sell

Strong Buy

1212

1.06
1.16

CAPITAL & REGIONAL


CLS HOLDINGS

HAMMERSON

486.80

385.70

497.70

Neutral

Strong Buy

1494

HELICAL BAR

236.00

164.00

247.00

Neutral

Buy

340

0.76

LAND SECURITIES GROUP

829.00

672.50

832.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

2360

1.15

CAPITAL SHOPCTS.GROUP

361.10

305.00

366.00

Neutral

Buy

511

1.10

MCKAY SECURITIES

142.00

120.25

144.00

Neutral

Sell

-592

0.71

MUCKLOW (A & J) GROUP

367.50

310.00

390.00

Neutral

Sell

285

0.41

PRIMARY HEALTH PROPS.

362.75

311.00

364.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

726

0.37

66.25

32.50

66.25

Sell

Sell

-293

1.17

QUINTAIN ESTATES & DEV.


SAVILLS

534.50

300.80

568.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

2243

0.73

SHAFTESBURY

573.00

482.20

582.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1157

1.02

SEGRO

251.50

209.40

259.20

Neutral

Sell

209

1.69

ST MODWEN PROPS.

257.60

145.50

260.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

835

1.55

TOWN CENTRE SECURITIES

194.00

147.00

194.00

Neutral

Sell

26

1.04

UNITE GROUP

301.50

180.25

303.00

Neutral

Sell

67

1.75

1.88

1.00

4.00

Sell

Sell

-1070

1.00

335.00

213.25

344.90

Neutral

Sell

1.02

WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

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15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 12 of 17

Under Valued

Software & Computer Services


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ANITE

157.80

101.25

159.70

Neutral

Sell

123

0.75

2213.00

1469.00

2232.00

Neutral

Sell

1320

1.40

AVEVA GROUP

Target

Beta

COMPUTACENTER

475.00

292.40

507.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1363

0.99

KOFAX

260.75

240.00

325.75

Neutral

Buy

324

1.09

25.00

18.25

25.50

Neutral

Sell

22

0.83

MICRO FOCUS INTL.

657.50

426.17

657.50

Neutral

Buy

979

0.80

PHOENIX IT GROUP

157.00

135.00

231.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

314

0.74

72.50

70.25

92.25

Neutral

Sell

-92

0.51

1820.00

1275.00

1820.00

Neutral

Buy

2094

0.73

333.60

247.70

343.20

Neutral

Buy

417

0.73

INNOVATION GROUP

RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP

Over Valued

Speciality & Other Finance


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ABERDEEN ASSET MAN.

426.40

237.30

426.40

Neutral

Sell

167

BREWIN DOLPHIN

204.70

136.30

222.00

Neutral

Sell

124

0.70

10900.00

9175.00

11105.00

Neutral

Sell

10209

0.83

CAMELLIA

Target

Beta
1.09

CHARLES STANLEY GROUP

356.25

247.50

356.25

Neutral

Sell

177

0.97

CHARLES TAYLOR

171.50

128.50

189.75

Neutral

Sell

106

0.68

CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP

1027.00

673.50

1030.00

Neutral

Sell

204

0.91

F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT

102.00

64.75

110.00

Neutral

Neutral

102

0.89

3.65

0.77

3.65

Sell

Strong Buy

42

0.70

HENDERSON GROUP

160.50

90.55

165.60

Neutral

Sell

50

1.45

ICAP

350.90

281.40

431.50

Neutral

Sell

209

1.08
1.68

HELPHIRE GROUP

INTERMEDIATE CAPITAL GP.

375.10

227.30

375.10

Neutral

Sell

205

INVESTEC

493.60

310.40

495.80

Neutral

Sell

96

1.56

1341.00

880.00

1341.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3535

1.15

LONDON STOCK EX.GROUP

111.10

63.25

152.50

Neutral

Sell

95

1.32

RATHBONE BROTHERS

MAN GROUP

1450.00

1151.00

1472.00

Neutral

Sell

1128

0.74

SCHRODERS

1969.00

1166.00

1999.00

Neutral

Sell

1278

1.32

SCHRODERS NV

1548.00

966.00

1594.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

4276

1.28

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 13 of 17

Over Valued

Support Services
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ACAL

205.00

157.75

219.50

Neutral

Buy

287

0.91

AGGREKO

1641.00

1557.00

2400.00

Neutral

Sell

1179

1.02

AMEC

1042.00

923.00

1172.00

Neutral

Neutral

1003

1.03

484.50

212.20

485.70

Neutral

Sell

285

1.61

1043.00

721.50

1052.00

Neutral

Sell

611

0.47

442.00

317.00

445.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

743

0.76

1183.00

908.50

1183.00

Neutral

Sell

762

0.53

UK MAIL GROUP

369.50

214.00

375.00

Neutral

Buy

415

0.37

CAPITA

820.00

602.00

831.00

Neutral

Sell

475

0.50

43.25

25.50

50.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

68

0.77

COMPASS GROUP

780.00

616.00

780.50

Neutral

Sell

561

0.73

BERENDSEN

620.50

456.60

634.00

Neutral

Buy

890

1.04

DE LA RUE

946.50

885.50

1075.00

Neutral

Sell

559

#NA

ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL

COMMUNISIS

Target

Beta

DIGNITY

1240.00

755.50

1250.00

Neutral

Sell

717

0.21

DIPLOMA

565.00

385.00

587.00

Neutral

Sell

448

0.95

ELECTROCOMP.

255.10

195.20

263.00

Neutral

Buy

295

1.04

FILTRONA

569.00

400.00

597.00

Neutral

Sell

326

1.09

G4S

284.30

240.00

292.10

Neutral

Sell

267

0.58

94.85

66.40

95.50

Neutral

Buy

112

1.09

HOMESERVE

239.00

137.50

255.70

Neutral

Strong Buy

447

0.91

INTERSERVE

469.70

270.10

471.50

Neutral

Buy

646

1.26

3236.00

2236.00

3236.00

Neutral

Sell

1328

0.77

JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP

41.75

26.50

42.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

86

1.16

MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.

28.00

21.25

39.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

50

0.69

MENZIES (JOHN)

709.50

542.00

755.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1224

1.42

MICHAEL PAGE INTL.

409.10

341.40

497.00

Neutral

Sell

297

1.40

MITIE GROUP

287.90

253.90

300.80

Neutral

Buy

317

0.54

OFFICE2OFFICE

101.00

91.50

163.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

221

0.33

PAYPOINT

835.00

565.00

893.50

Neutral

Sell

640

0.69

PREMIER FARNELL

215.00

153.20

228.80

Neutral

Buy

261

1.31

REGUS

126.50

82.65

127.80

Neutral

Sell

100

1.42

89.00

69.40

97.95

Neutral

Sell

50

1.27

471.00

378.11

473.50

Neutral

Buy

564

0.90

HAYS

INTERTEK GROUP

RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RICARDO

403.50

304.50

412.00

Neutral

Neutral

435

0.84

ROBERT WALTERS

206.25

176.25

264.63

Neutral

Buy

289

1.19

RPC GROUP

437.00

348.30

447.00

Neutral

Buy

493

0.76

RPS GROUP

235.00

197.00

256.60

Neutral

Neutral

227

1.48

SERCO GROUP

562.00

509.50

602.00

Neutral

Sell

533

0.59

SHANKS GROUP

82.00

75.80

107.20

Neutral

Strong Buy

153

1.44

SPEEDY HIRE

42.00

22.25

42.00

Sell

Buy

48

1.24

124.75

70.00

129.00

Neutral

Sell

47

0.53

57.75

39.50

57.75

Neutral

Neutral

56

0.92

329.38

234.75

354.88

Neutral

Strong Buy

567

0.85

71.50

42.00

75.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

169

0.78

TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 14 of 17

Over Valued

Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

273.70

200.70

275.90

Neutral

Neutral

295

41.50

27.28

41.74

Neutral

Strong Buy

74

0.68

649.00

390.80

661.00

Neutral

Sell

549

0.52

Beta
0.92

78.90

67.00

85.20

Neutral

Buy

116

1.24

1000.00

612.00

1000.00

Neutral

Sell

652

0.10

167.55

154.45

191.25

Neutral

Sell

147

0.55

Under Valued

Transport
Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BBA AVIATION

225.90

178.00

232.80

Neutral

Sell

177

BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.

384.50

309.50

425.00

Neutral

Neutral

411

0.97

1436.00

1150.00

1440.00

Neutral

Neutral

1371

0.80

CLARKSON

Target

Beta
1.29

EASYJET

991.50

431.70

1002.00

Neutral

Sell

600

0.75

FIRST GROUP

191.30

175.70

303.90

Neutral

Strong Buy

482

0.92

FISHER(JAMES)& SONS

933.00

535.00

933.00

Neutral

Sell

346

0.75

1370.00

1086.00

1393.00

Neutral

Buy

1622

0.91

GO-AHEAD GROUP
NATIONAL EXPRESS

212.00

164.50

252.00

Neutral

Neutral

219

1.33

NORTHGATE

317.75

159.60

336.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

558

1.40

STAGECOACH GROUP

297.50

230.40

319.60

Neutral

Buy

330

0.90

66.00

31.00

90.50

Sell

Sell

-32

0.90

WINCANTON

Under Valued

Utilities
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

CENTRICA

344.50

292.10

353.10

Neutral

Buy

466

0.47

NATIONAL GRID

686.50

626.00

717.50

Neutral

Buy

805

0.50

PENNON GROUP

655.00

598.00

796.00

Neutral

Buy

750

0.59

SSE

1409.00

1276.00

1466.00

Neutral

Buy

1697

0.43

SEVERN TRENT

1579.00

1507.00

1796.00

Neutral

Sell

1449

0.35

718.50

594.00

747.50

Neutral

Sell

643

0.51

UNITED UTILITIES GROUP

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

Target

Beta

15 February 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 15 of 17

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