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Analysis of Stock Market

Summer Internship
PROJECT ON

Analysis of stock market


Submitted To- Mr. Nitish Dipankar

Prepared ByNamit Agrawal


MBA (GEN), Sec E A0101907262 Amity Business School

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Analysis of Stock Market

Acknowledgements

I pay my sincere regards to Mr. Nitish Dipankar, Area Sales Manager, Retail Liabilities, Wealth Management, Consumer Banking, Standard Chartered, for guiding me throughout the project with his valuable insights, and giving me the opportunity to work on this wonderful project, which helped me to analyze and interpret the performance of various companies in terms of fundamental attributes and market sentiments, hone my thinking ability and gain a deeper insight into their business model. I acknowledge, with due respect, the continuous guidance he provided without which, the completion of this project work would not have been possible. I am also grateful to the HOD, Finance, Amity Business School, Amity University, Noida and my faculty guide Prof. S. K. Malhotra, who not only guided me throughout the project but also provided the much needed inspiration and motivation.

Namit Agrawal A0101907262 MBA (GEN.), ABSAU

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Abstract

The aim of this project work is to analyze and present the findings about financial performance of some Indian companies both on their internal business front and the stock markets. The objective is to judge their performance and chart out future projections and potentials which in turn would help to recommend the investors whether to sell, hold or accumulate the stocks of these companies. The project included the collection of daily turnover and trading of the companies on the largest two bourses of India NSE and BSE. The information from these was used to do the Technical Analysis i.e.to calculate and judge the market sentiment about the companies. The Balance sheets, P&l accounts and Income statements of the companies were used to do the Fundamental Analysis to find out the internal story and performance of the company. Corporate News and other information helped in judging the future growth prospects of the companies and their prospective effects on the overall market sentiment. Overall the project was an excellent opportunity to look into the unseen and to gain a lot of information and knowledge about valuations, business trends, performance and to get a glimpse of what is to come in the future. Based on the current scenario, an attempt has been made using modern techniques to forecast the future earnings and value creation of the researched companies.

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Table of Contents
S.no. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. Introduction Economic Growth & GDP Per capita income and consumption Industry and Infrastructure IIP Population and Growing Middle Class Research Model - CANSLIM Research Methodology Companies and respective sector Company Analysis - Factors Bharti Airtel DLF HUL ICICI Bank Infosys Technologies Larsen & Toubro Reliance Infrastructure RIL Conclusions Implications for future Research References Topic Page No. 5 6 7 8 10 12 15 16 17 18 19 25 30 37 42 47 52 57 63 65 66

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Analysis of Stock Market

Introduction

India is experiencing a good economic growth. This has led to the increase in the number of people earning handsome income. These people are attracted to invest in the stocks and securities of various companies in the share market as they see appreciation of their investments in them. But the stocks should not be bought on mere speculation as they could seriously erode the wealth if not selected properly and if the timing is not appropriate. The objective of the project is to analyze the fundamentals and the future potential of the various companies and provide useful information and insights to the investors as to whether they should invest in a particular stock and for what frame of time. Various models and practices which are time tested and used extensively by professional analysts and investment companies have been used for the above expressed purpose.

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MACROECONOMIC FACTORS
Economic growth and GDP:
The countrys GDP at current market prices is projected at Rs. 46, 93,602 crore in 200708 by the Central Statistical Organization (CSO). Thus, in the current fiscal year, the size of the Indian economy at market exchange rate will cross US$ 1 trillion. At the nominal exchange rate (average of April-December 2007) GDP is projected to be US$ 1.16 trillion in 2007-08. Per capita income at nominal exchange rate is estimated at US$ 1,021. According to the World Bank system of classification of countries as low income, middle income and high income, India is still in the category of low income countries. The (per capita) GDP at purchasing power parity is conceptually a better indicator of the relative size of the economy than the (per capita)GDP at market exchange rates. There are, however, practical difficulties in deriving GDP at PPP, and we now have two different estimates of the PPP conversion factor for 2005. Indias GDP at PPP is estimated at US$ 5.16 trillion or US$ 3.19 trillion depending on whether the old or new conversion factor is used. In the former case, India is the third largest economy in the world after the United States and China, while in the latter it is the fifth largest (behind Japan and Germany). GDP at factor cost at constant 1999-2000 prices is projected by the CSO to grow at 8.5 per cent in 2008-09. This represents a deceleration from the unexpectedly high growth of 9.4 per cent, 9.6 per cent and 8.7 per cent respectively, in the previous three years. With the economy modernizing, globalizing and growing rapidly, some degree of cyclical fluctuation is to be expected.

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Per capita income and consumption:


Economic growth, and in particular the growth in per capita income, is a broad quantitative indicator of the progress made in improving public welfare. Per capita consumptionis another quantitative indicator that is useful for judging welfare improvement.The pace of economic improvement has moved up considerably during the last five years(including 2007-08). Since 2003, there has been a sharp acceleration in the growth of per capita income, almost doubling to an average of 7.2 per cent per annum (2003-04 to 2007-08).This means that average income would now double in a decade, well within one generation, instead of after a generation (two decades). The growth rate of per capita income in 2007-08 is projected to be 7.2 per cent, the same as the average of the five years to the current year. Per capita private final consumption expenditure has increased in line with per capita income. The growth rate has almost doubled to 5.1 per cent per year from 2003-04 to 2007-08, with the current years growth expected to be 5.3 per cent, marginally higher than the five year average. The average growth of consumption is slower than the average growth of income, primarily because of rising saving rates, though rising tax collection rates can also widen the gap (during some periods). Year to year changes in consumption also suggest that the rise in consumption is a more gradual and steady process, as any sharp changes in income tend to get adjusted in the saving rate. Per capita income and consumption (in 1999-2000 prices): Year 2007-08 Rs. 29,78 6 Income is taken as GDP at market prices. Consumption is PFCE. Per capita is obtained by dividing these by population. 7 Amity Business School Income Growth (%) 7.2 Rs. 17,145 Consumption Growth (%) 5.3

Analysis of Stock Market

Industry and infrastructure:


The industrial sector witnessed a slowdown in 2007-08. The growth of 9 per cent when viewed against the back drop of the robust growth witnessed in the preceding four years, suggests that there is a certain degree of moderation in the momentum of the industrial sector. The consumer durable goods sector in particular has shown a distinct slowdown. This is linked to the hardening of interest rates and therefore to the conditions prevailing in the domestic credit sector. In contrast, the capital goods industry has sustained strong growth performance during 2007-08. At the product group level, the moderation in growth has been selective. Industries like chemicals, food products, leather, jute textiles, wood products and miscellaneous manufacturing products witnessed acceleration in growth, while basic metals, machinery and equipments, rubber, plastic and petroleum products and beverages and tobacco recorded lower but strong growth during 2007-08. Other industries including textiles (except jute textiles), automotives, paper, non-metallic mineral products and metal products slowed down visibly during the period. Within automobiles, while passenger cars, scooters and mopeds witnessed buoyant growth, the production of motor cycles and three wheelers slackened. The picture with regard to forward-looking variables such as investment, particularly in the corporate sector, has been encouraging. Corporate profitability during 2007-08 on the whole increased in the manufacturing sector except for certain groups like textiles, food products and beverages. Higher profits backed by sound balance sheets were also reflected in an increase in the planned corporate investment. The outstanding gross bank credit to the industrial sector which had increased slowly, picked up in later months to touch 8.3 per cent during 2007-08. These developments are also reflected in the robust growth of the capital goods sector. The continued buoyancy in industrial and corporate investment thus reflects the confidence in the growth prospects of the industrial sector.

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Analysis of Stock Market Accompanying the recent moderation in industrial growth, the growth performance of some segments of the infrastructure sector during 2007-08 such as power generation and movement of railway freight, as also the production of universal intermediates like steel, cement and petroleum, have shown a subdued performance. In the power sector, though the planned capacity addition is unlikely to be achieved, the growth in capacity seen in the current year is distinctly higher than in the previous years. The movement of cargo handled by major ports and air cargo (exports and imports) has showed improved performance as compared to the corresponding period last year. With increased rural penetration of mobile telephony, the telecom sector has continued its strong growth. The recent moderation in the growth of the industrial sector has raised concerns in some quarters about the sustainability of the high growth of the sector. To deal with the situation emerging from the slowdown of some export oriented sectors of relatively low import intensity including textiles, handicrafts, leather, etc, the Government took certain measures to tide over the situation in the short run. But it needs to be emphasized that, over the medium term, there is little choice but to improve productivity, even if there are issues pertaining to the exchange rate of currencies of competing countries.

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Analysis of Stock Market

Index of Industrial Production:


Index of Six Infrastructure Industries (Base: 1993-94=100): The Index of Six core-infrastructure industries having a combined weight of 26.7 per cent in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) with base 1993-94 registered a growth of 5.6% during April-March 2007-08. Crude Oil production (weight of 4.17% in the IIP) registered a growth of 0.4%. Petroleum refinery production (weight of 2.00% in the IIP) registered a growth of 6.5%. Coal production (weight of 3.2% in the IIP) registered a growth of 6.0%. Electricity generation (weight of 10.17% in the IIP) registered a growth of 6.3%. Cement production (weight of 1.99% in the IIP) registered a growth of 8.1%. Finished (carbon) Steel production (weight of 5.13% in the IIP) registered a growth of 5.1%. The slowdown in the growth of Index for Industrial Production (IIP) has resurrected concerns about lower growth in India Incs earnings, given that the manufacturing sectors account for a major portion of the Indian stock market capitalization (over 60 per cent of S&P CNX 500). The growth for the full year 2007-08 has witnessed moderation. While the slowdown in growth has been widely perceived to be a result of a higher base, other factors suggest that there is more to the slowdown than just a base effect. A recent survey by CII-ASCON for instance, suggests an increase in the number of sectors that have witnessed negative growth in 2007-08 as compared with 2006-07. The survey has reported that out of 104 sectors under coverage, sectors with a negative growth have increased by 16.3 per cent in the recent year, compared with an 11.2 per cent increase in FY07.

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Analysis of Stock Market Both the IIP numbers and the survey clearly indicate slowing output (and thus off take) in the consumer durables sector. Steep increases in lending rates over the past couple of years appear to have moderated the demand for two and four-wheelers as well as electronic goods. Current prime lending rates according to the RBI data stand at 12.75-13.25 per cent, which is a steep 200 basis points increase over rates that prevailed in March 2006. The IIP numbers reflect negative growth in the consumer durables segment for 2007-08. The survey also indicates that majority of the sectors that witnessed negative growth fall under the consumer durables industry. This is not surprising as two-wheeler and carmakers have reported lower growth in off take during the fiscal. While the basic, intermediate and capital goods sectors have also witnessed a tapering down in growth, they appear to have fared better than consumer goods. The survey, for instance, suggests that close to 50 per cent of the sectors that have witnessed production growth of over 20 per cent are from the capital goods industry. Amidst pressure from higher raw material costs as a result of spiralling inflation, increased fuel costs and higher cost of borrowing, the core sectors appear to have put up a better show. This suggests that slowing off take has not yet trickled down to the capital goods and other feeder industries; but the next few months may have to be watched on that. The silver lining for India Inc, from this slowdown, may yet lie in the export-oriented sectors, especially IT services, as a rapidly depreciating rupee may bolster realizations for these sectors.

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Analysis of Stock Market

Effect of Population and Growing Middle Class:


Inspite of the IIP not showing very impressive figures during 2007-08, there is still confidence in the economy. This is primarily due to the huge burgeoning middle class population of the country and the increasing level of the earnings of the people. In fact, the domestic consumption of the country is steadily increasing at a rapid pace. The country has been able to maintain the GDP of 9% upwards and 8.7% for the last 4 fiscals and the previous fiscal respectively. This shows that the economy is indeed in a balanced position and poised to maintain the growth. Though there have been some news from different quarters about lowering of the business due to the slowing down of the world economy especially U.S. economy and the Rupee appreciation, the fact is that the economy will continue to be led by domestic consumption. There will be some impact of the U.S. slowdown but it will not be large enough to offset out growth path. As for the concerns regarding Rupee appreciation, the currency is loosening its strength against the dollar and is now trading at a comfortable level and thus will not affect the exporters negatively. It is important to here that the major part of the population of the country i.e.58.5 crore approx. is in the 15-59 years age bracket and having the earning potential. There are 54 crore people below the 25years of age and it is an important fact because this group will earn, spend and will eventually drive the growth of the country in the times to come. The following figures illustrate the facts.

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Analysis of Stock Market ESTIMATED POPULATION OF INDIA 2008 In thousands (000') India and State / Union territory* Persons Males Females INDIA (TOTAL) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Jammu & Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Punjab Chandigarh* Haryana Delhi* Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Uttaranchal Bihar Jharkhand Sikkim Arunachal Pradesh Nagaland Manipur Mizoram Tripura Meghalaya Assam West Bengal Orissa Madhya Pradesh Chhattisgarh Gujarat Dadra & Nagar Haveli* Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Goa Daman & Diu* Lakshadweep* Kerala Tamil Nadu Pondicherry* Andaman & Nicobar Islands* 1,147,677 12,366 6,550 26,591 1,063 23,772 17,076 64,641 190,891 9,497 93,823 30,010 594 1,200 2,187 2,627 980 3,510 2,536 29,929 87,869 39,899 69,279 23,646 56,408 262 106,894 82,180 57,399 1,628 188 69 34,232 66,396 1,074 411 592,245 6,423 3,328 14,162 598 12,763 9,357 33,589 99,894 4,836 48,677 15,436 317 632 1,146 1,329 506 1,801 1,285 15,421 45,278 20,214 36,057 11,935 29,358 150 55,492 41,449 29,145 825 116 35 16,638 33,298 537 218 555,432 5,943 3,222 12,429 465 11,009 7,719 31,052 90,997 4,661 45,146 14,574 277 568 1,041 1,298 474 1,709 1,251 14,508 42,591 19,865 33,222 11,711 27,050 112 51,402 40,731 28,254 803 72 34 17,594 33,098 537 193

S No.

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Analysis of Stock Market DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE:

Age Groups 6 years and below Proportion to total population (%) 7 to 14 years Proportion to total population (%) 15 to 59 years Proportion to total population (%) 60 years and above Proportion to total population (%) Age Not Stated Proportion to total population (%)

Persons 163,819,614 15.9 199,791,198 19.4 585,638,723 56.9 76,622,321 7.5 2,738,472 0.3

Males 84,999,203 16.0 104,488,119 19.6 303,400,561 57.0 37,768,327 7.1 1,500,562 0.3

Females 78,820,411 15.9 95,303,079 19.2 282,238,162 56.9 38,853,994 7.8 1,237,910 0.3

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Research Model - CANSLIM


CANSLIM model is a method for selecting and analyzing the performance of a
company over various parameters. This model has been used for the purpose of research. The full form of the model is as follows:

C Current quarterly earnings. A Annual earning increases over the last years. N New products, management, new highs and lows. S Small supply and large demand i.e. future profitability. L Leaders and laggard stocks. (using relative index as a guide). I Institutional support and sponsorship. M Determining market direction by reviewing market averages daily.

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Research Methodology
The research has been done by selecting the companies which are the representative of a particular sector on the basis of overall market capitalization, stocks having the highest liquidity and turnover both on the NSE and BSE. A caution was thus taken and by thorough approach the best companies were selected so as to portray a genuine picture of the sector. With the help of SPSS Package and using the quantitative techniques, the statistical analysis has been done. The following analysis has been done for all the 8 companies:

1. Fundamental analysis. 2. Ratio analysis. 3. Future growth and earnings analysis. 4. Statistical analysis. 5. Technical analysis.

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Companies and Respective Sector


The 8 companies from the most important sectors which form the foundation of the economy have been studied and analyzed. They are: 1. Bharti Airtel Telecommunications. 2. DLF- Realty. 3. HUL FMCG. 4. ICICI Bank Banking. 5. Infosys Technologies IT. 6. Larsen &Toubro Capital Goods & Engineering. 7. Reliance Infrastructure Power and Energy. 8. RIL Oil and Gas.

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Company analysis
The analysis of each company has been done in the following heads and sequence: 1. Score card. 2. Stock price movements. 3. Company profile. 4. Business. 5. Shareholding pattern. 6. Financials. 7. Future growth potential. 8. Mutual funds invested in the company. 9. Valuations and risks.
10. Rating.

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Bharti Airtel Limited

SECTOR: TELECOMMUNICATIONS

SCORE CARD:

Standard Deviation Institutional Holding (%) Dividend Yield P/E

37.5 29.56 0.87 22.83

Market Capitalization(Rs Cr) 145645 CMP(Rs.) 52 week - high 52 week - low Face value (Rs.) 747.95 1184.20 701.00 10.00

All the values as on NSE on 27/06/08

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STOCK PRICE MOVEMENTS (5TH MAY TO 27TH JUNE): X - axis: No. of days Y - axis: Value in Rs.

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BHARTI AIRTEL

COMPANY PROFILE: Airtel comes from Bharti Airtel Limited, Indias largest integrated and the first private telecom services provider with a footprint in all the 23 telecom circles. It was established as a Public Limited Company on July 07, 1995. Bharti Airtel since its inception has been at the forefront of technology and has steered the course of the telecom sector in the country with its world class products and services. It is having a Customer Base comprising of 64,370,434 GSM mobile and 2,319,509 telemedia customers (Status as at month ended April 30, 2008). The businesses at Bharti Airtel have been structured into three individual strategic business units (SBUs) - Mobile Services, Airtel Telemedia Services & Enterprise Services. The mobile business provides mobile & fixed wireless services using GSM technology across 23 telecom circles while the Airtel Telemedia Services business offers broadband & telephone services in 94 cities. The Enterprise services provide end-to-end telecom solutions to corporate customers and national & international long distance services to carriers. All these services are provided under the Airtel brand. The group focuses on delivering telecommunications services as an integrated offering including mobile, broadband & telephone, national and international long distance and data connectivity services to corporate, small and medium scale enterprises.

BUSINESS: The company is having a Customer Base comprising of 64,370,434 GSM mobile and 2,319,509 telemedia customers (Status as at month ended April 30, 2008).The mobile business provides mobile & fixed wireless services using GSM technology across 23 21 Amity Business School

Analysis of Stock Market telecom circles while the Airtel Telemedia Services business offers broadband & telephone services in 94 cities. The Company compliments its mobile and broadband & telephone services with national and international long distance services. It has over 35,016 route kilometers of optic fibre on its national long distance network. For international connectivity to east, it has a submarine cable landing station at. For international connectivity to the west, the Company is a member of the South East AsiaMiddle East-Western Europe 4 (SEA-ME-WE-4) consortium along with 15 other global telecom operators. SHAREHOLDING PATTERN:

Face value Indian Promoters Foreign Promoters Sub total Institutional investors Banks Fin. Inst. and Insurance FII's Sub total Other investors Private Corporate Bodies NRI's/OCB's/Foreign Others Others Sub total General public Grand total

10.00 No. Of Shares 859986028 390363150 1250349178 46114765 474252686 560980300 38391925 22428844 2521706 63342435 23235493 1897907406 % Holding 45.31 20.57 65.88 2.43 24.99 29.56 2.02 1.18 0.13 3.34 1.22 100.00

FINANCIALS: 22 Amity Business School

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2008-09 E Net Sales Operating profit Net profit OPM NPM EPS(Rs.) ROE 34,699.74 12,838.78 7,980.94 37.00 23.00 42.05 -

2007-08 25,703.51 10,501.03 6,244.20 40.85 24.07 32.90 NA

YoY Chg(%)* 44.47 47.55 54.82 85Bps 152Bps 54.68 -

2006-07 17,794.43 7,116.95 4,033.22 40.00 22.55 21.27 35.35

2005-06 11,228.68 3,881.83 2,012.07 34.57 17.82 10.62 27.47

E = Expected, *for (07-08 and 06-07)

FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL: The growing population of the country along with the betterment in earnings of the people has resulted in a boom for the telecommunications industry as there is widespread need and application of these services. The company has been growing at an unabated pace for the last three years and hopes to carry on the momentum. The company was recently in talks with the MTN Group of South Africa for a possible merger but the talks fell through as there was the offer of reverse merger and acquisition by MTN which was not acceptable to the company. The company is however open to alliances and has a strategic alliance with SingTel. The investment made by SingTel is one of the largest investments made in the world outside Singapore, in the company. The companys mobile network equipment partners include Ericsson and Nokia. In the case of the broadband and telephone services and enterprise services (carriers), equipment suppliers include Siemens, Nortel, Corning, among others. The Company also has an information technology alliance with IBM for its group-wide information technology requirements and with Nortel for call center technology requirements. The call center operations for the mobile services have been outsourced to IBM Daksh, Hinduja TMT, Teletech & Mphasis.

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Analysis of Stock Market MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTED IN THE COMPANY:

Scheme JM Telecom Sector Fund - Growth JM Telecom Sector Fund - Dividend Birla Sun Life New Millenium Fund Growth Birla Sun Life New Millenium Fund Dividend UTI Contra Fund - Growth

% of scheme asset size 31.99 31.99 9.01 9.01 7.02

VALUATIONS AND RISKS: The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 22.83. For the year ending FY 09, the company is expected to report earnings per share of Rs.42.05. Thus at the current Market Price of Rs.747.95, the stock is trading at a one year forward P/E of 17.78. RATING: HOLD

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DLF Limited

SECTOR: REALTY

SCORE CARD:

Standard Deviation Institutional Holding (%) Dividend Yield P/E

78.70 8.20 0.94 9.80

Market Capitalization(Rs Cr) 76692 CMP(Rs.) 52 week - high 52 week - low Face Value (Rs.) 425.10 1225.00 422.40 2.00

All the values as on NSE on 27/06/08

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STOCK PRICE MOVEMENTS (5TH MAY TO 27TH JUNE): X - axis: No. of days Y - axis: Value in Rs.

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COMPANY PROFILE: The DLF group is a leading real estate developer in India. With over six decades of excellence, DLF is a name synonymous with global standards, new generation workspaces and lifestyles. The Group has a distinction of developing commercial projects and technology parks that are at par with the best in the world. DLF has pioneered some of the best-known urban housing and retail destinations in Delhi including South Extension, Greater Kailash, Rajouri Garden, Model Town, Hauz Khas and Kailash Colony.The Group is also establishing partnerships with reputed leaders in the field of education, healthcare, and hospitality services. DLF has also earmarked the infrastructure sector and foresees the infrastructure vertical to create new source of revenues and growth to the group. The key focus areas of vertical are construction of expressways, highways, airports and other key infrastructure projects. BUSINESS: The group has over 224 million sq. ft. of existing development and 748 million sq. ft. of planned projects. The company has also entered into several strategic alliances with global industry leaders. The core business traditionally has been into three prime divisions: Homes, Offices and Shopping Malls. To these DLF has added three more divisions: Hotels, Infrastructure and SEZs. 220 million square feet of area has been developed as colonies and townships in the past, including 17 million square feet of residential properties.32 million square feet is developed/under development. Several world-class projects are in the pipe-line. Currently 26 million sq. ft. of rentable commercial space is possessed by the company. IT Parks are being developed at Gurgaon, Noida, Chandigarh, Kolkata, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Chennai, Pune, Bhubaneshwar and Nagpur. 27 Amity Business School

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SHAREHOLDING PATTERN:

Face Value Indian Promoters Sub total Institutional Investors Banks Fin. Inst. and Insurance FII's Sub total Other investors Private Corporate Bodies NRI's/OCB's/Foreign Others Others Sub total General public Grand total

2.00 No. of Shares 1503043120 1503043120 3744704 128841616 139862476 9882408 1423988 398623 11578219 50222065 1704705880 % Holding 88.16 88.16 0.22 7.56 8.20 0.58 0.08 0.02 0.68 2.95 99.99

FINANCIALS: E = Expected, *for (07-08 and 06-07) 2008-09 E Net Sales Operating profit Net profit OPM NPM EPS(Rs.) ROE 11,065.76 4,426.30 3,319.73 40.00 30.00 19.47 2007-08 5,532.88 3,081.06 2,590.28 55.69 42.75 15.19 NA YoY Chg(%)* 388.13 346.53 536.57 -518Bps 1428Bps 471.05 2006-07 1,133.48 690.00 406.91 60.87 28.47 2.66 62.15 2005-06 291.65 46.35 26.70 15.89 15.21 35.26 28 Amity Business School

Analysis of Stock Market FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL: World-class construction and design is a part of the companys policy and it has made the following steps in this direction.

Extensive arrangements with Indias top designers, for example, Hafeez Contractor, Mohit Gujral, WSP. Finest network of experienced contractors and suppliers like LOR, L&T, Shapoorji Pallonji, BL Kashyap.

9 million square feet of saleable area under construction Plans to develop around 70 million square feet of residential projects across country in next 3 years. Upcoming Premium housing - in major metros :

Chanakyapuri project in Delhi Public Private Partnership (PPP) to develop residential project along with Delhi Development Authority (DDA) Township development in Gurgaon, Amritsar, Goa, Mumbai, Pune, Chennai 375 million square feet of residential space under planning. DLF Golf and Country Club, an exclusive 18-hole par 72 Arnold Palmer Signature Golf Course landscaped by internationally acclaimed architect Belt Collins. It is India's first night Golf Course, ranked as the best in the Country, and amongst the leading Golf Courses in Asia.

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MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTED IN THE COMPANY:


Scheme Birla Fixed Term Plan - Series AG - Growth Birla Fixed Term Plan - Series AG - IP Growth Birla Fixed Term Plan - Series AG Dividend Birla Fixed Term Plan - Series AG - IP Dividend Birla Fixed Term Plan - Series AD - Growth % of scheme asset size 37.93 37.93 37.93 37.93 19.04

VALUATIONS AND RISKS:

The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 9.80. For the year ending FY 09, the company is expected to report earnings per share of Rs.19.47 Thus at the current Market Price of Rs.425.10, the stock is trading at a one year forward P/E of 21.83. RATING: SELL.

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Analysis of Stock Market

Hindustan Unilever Limited

SECTOR: FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS

SCORE CARD:

Standard Deviation Institutional Holding (%) Dividend Yield P/E

10.26 30.35 4.32 25.84

Market Capitalization(Rs Cr) 46214 CMP(Rs.) 52 week - high 52 week - low Face Value (Rs.) 208.55 255.85 169.00 1.00

All the values as on NSE on 27/06/08

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STOCK PRICE MOVEMENTS (5TH MAY TO 27TH JUNE): X - axis: No. of days Y - axis: Value in Rs.

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COMPANY PROFILE:

Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL) is India's largest fast moving consumer goods company, with leadership in Home & Personal Care Products and Foods & Beverages. HUL's brands, spread across 20 distinct consumer categories, touch the lives of two out of three Indians. With 35 Power Brands, HUL meets everyday needs for nutrition, hygiene, and personal care. HUL is also one of the country's largest exporters; it has been recognized as a Golden Super Star Trading House by the Government of India. The Parent company, Unilever, holds 52.10% of the equity. It is a Fortune 500 transnational which sells Foods and Home and Personal Care brands in about 100 countries worldwide. HUL has traditionally been a company, which incorporates latest technology in all its operations. BUSINESS: HUL's brands - like Lifebuoy, Lux, Surf Excel, Rin, Wheel, Fair & Lovely, Pond's, Sunsilk, Clinic, Pepsodent, Close-up, Lakme, Brooke Bond, Kissan, Knorr-Annapurna, Kwality Wall's are household names across the country and span many categories soaps, detergents, personal products, tea, coffee, branded staples, ice cream and culinary products. They are manufactured over 40 factories across India. The operations involve over 2,000 suppliers and associates. HUL's distribution network comprises about 4,000 redistribution stockists, covering 6.3 million retail outlets reaching the entire urban population, and about 250 million rural consumers.

Major Brands of HUL:


Personal wash: Lux, Breeze, Lifebuoy, Dove, Liril, Pears, Hamam, Rexona. 33 Amity Business School

Analysis of Stock Market Laundry: Surf Excel, Rin, Wheel Skin Care: Fair &Lovely, Ponds, Vaseline Hair Care: Sunsilk Naturals, Clinic Oral Care: Pepsodent, Closeup Deodorants: Axe, Rexona Colour Cosmetics: Lakme Ayurvedic: Ayush Tea: Brooke Bond, Lipton Coffee: Brooke Bond Bru Foods: Kissan, Annapurna, Knorr Ice Cream: Kwality Walls SHAREHOLDING PATTERN:
Face value Promoters holding Foreign Promoters Sub total Institutional investors Banks Fin. Inst. and Insurance FII's Sub total Other investors Private Corporate Bodies NRI's/OCB's/Foreign Others Directors/Employees Govt. Others Sub total General public Grand total 19350708 6359414 198946 20 1172543 27077411 355051027 2177979336 0.89 0.29 0.01 0.05 1.24 16.30 100.00 267563405 330009896 661001438 12.28 15.15 30.35 1134849460 1134849460 52.11 52.11 1.00 No. of Shares % Holding

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Analysis of Stock Market

FINANCIALS:

2008-09 E Net Sales Operating profit Net profit OPM NPM EPS(Rs.) ROE 15,775.41 2,050.80 2,129.68 13.00 13.50 9.78 -

2007-08 13,717.75 1,885.70 1,923.79 13.75 13.57 8.83 NA

YoY Chg(%)* 13.34 14.42 3.68 13Bps -132Bps 4.99 -

2006-07 12,103.39 1,648.06 1,855.37 13.62 14.89 8.41 122.97

2005-06 11,060.55 1,443.33 1,364.06 13.05 12.00 6.20 68.14 35

Amity Business School

Analysis of Stock Market E = Expected, *for (07-08 and 06-07)

FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL: Home to over 700 million people, rural India comprises not only over 70% of India's billion-strong population, but also over 12% of the world's population. The rural population already accounts for substantial consumption of Fast Moving Consumer Goods and also consumer durables. About 50% of the sales of soaps & detergents are generated in rural India. Similarly, almost half the demand for black & white television sets, pressure cookers, table fans, sewing machines also comes from there. But the potential is even larger, both in terms of consumption and penetration. The fact that 70% of the population accounts for only 50% of even relatively well-penetrated categories, like soaps & detergents, indicates the enormous scope of consumption-led growth in these categories. Therefore such categories will derive growth out of increased usage. In categories, which are relatively less penetrated, like personal products, rural Hindustan Unilever's distribution network is recognized as one of its key strengths. Its focus is not only to enable easy access to our brands, but also to touch consumers with a three-way convergence - of product availability, brand communication, and higher levels of brand experience. HUL's products, manufactured across the country, are distributed through a network of about 7,000 redistribution stockists covering about one million retail outlets. The distribution network directly covers the entire urban population. MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTED IN THE COMPANY:

Scheme Franklin FMCG Fund - Growth Franklin FMCG Fund - Dividend BOB Growth Fund - Growth BOB Growth Fund - Dividend

% of scheme asset size 8.18 8.18 8.12 8.12

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Analysis of Stock Market


5.35

ING Dividend Yield Fund - Growth

VALUATIONS AND RISKS:

The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 25.84. For the year ending FY 09, the company is expected to report earnings per share of Rs.9.78. Thus at the current Market Price of Rs.208.55, the stock is trading at a one year forward P/E of 21.32. RATING: HOLD

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Analysis of Stock Market

ICICI Bank Limited

SECTOR: BANKING

SCORE CARD:

Standard Deviation Institutional Holding (%) Dividend Yield P/E

81.48 57.43 3.22 22.84

Market Capitalization(Rs Cr) 77664 CMP(Rs.) 52 week - high 52 week - low Face Value (Rs.) 652.15 1455.50 675.10 10.00

All the values as on NSE on 27/06/08

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Analysis of Stock Market

STOCK PRICE MOVEMENTS (5TH MAY TO 27TH JUNE): X - axis: No. of days Y - axis: Value in Rs.

39 Amity Business School

Analysis of Stock Market

ICICI BANK

COMPANY PROFILE:

ICICI Bank is India's second-largest bank with total assets of Rs. 3,997.95 billion (US$ 100 billion) at March 31, 2008 and profit after tax of Rs. 41.58 billion for the year ended March 31, 2008. ICICI Bank is second amongst all the companies listed on the Indian stock exchanges in terms of free float market capitalization. The Bank has a network of about 1,308 branches and 3,950 ATMs in India and presence in 18 countries. The Bank currently has subsidiaries in the United Kingdom, Russia and Canada, branches in Unites States, Singapore, Bahrain, Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Qatar and Dubai International Finance Centre and representative offices in United Arab Emirates, China, South Africa, Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Our UK subsidiary has established branches in Belgium and Germany. BUSINESS: The Bank has a network of about 1,308 branches and 3,950 ATMs in India and presence in 18 countries. ICICI Bank is India's second-largest bank with total assets of Rs. 3,997.95 billion (US$ 100 billion) at March 31, 2008 and profit after tax of Rs. 41.58 billion for the year ended March 31, 2008. ICICI Bank is second amongst all the companies listed on the Indian stock exchanges in terms of free float market capitalization. ICICI Bank offers a wide range of banking products and financial services to corporate and retail customers through a variety of delivery channels and through its specialised subsidiaries and affiliates in the areas of investment banking, life and non-life insurance, venture capital and asset management.

40 Amity Business School

Analysis of Stock Market ICICI Bank's equity shares are listed in India on Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). SHAREHOLDING PATTERN:

Face Value Promoters holding Institutional investors Banks Fin. Inst. and Insurance FII's Sub total Other investors Private Corporate Bodies NRI's/OCB's/Foreign Others Others Sub total General public Grand total

10.00 No. of Shares 122522932 448624885 638977003 65494745 5055898 317963554 388514197 85196295 1112687495 % Holding 11.01 40.32 57.43 5.89 0.45 28.58 34.92 7.66 100.00

FINANCIALS: E = Expected, *for (07-08 and 06-07) YoY 2006-07 2005-06 Chg(%)* 33.89 22,994.29 14,306.13 40.15 14,077.37 7,710.91 33.68 3,110.22 2,540.07 286Bps 61.22 53.90 -25Bps 10.75 13.17 8.06 34.58 28.55 12.79 11.43

2008-09 E Net Sales Operating profit Net profit OPM NPM EPS(Rs.) ROE 40,024.84 24,014.90 4,802.98 60.00 12.00 43.16 -

2007-08 30,788.34 19,729.57 4,157.73 64.08 10.50 37.37 NA

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Analysis of Stock Market

FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL: The company is moving ahead strongly and the future of the company is indeed bright. The growing middle class of the country is a major prospective client category which seems to speed up the business turnover and base. MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTED IN THE COMPANY:

Scheme Birla Dynamic Bond Fund - Retail Plan - Growth Birla Dynamic Bond Fund - Retail Plan - Dividend-Quarterly Standard Chartered Fixed Maturity Plan - 18 Months Series 1 - A - Growth Standard Chartered Fixed Maturity Plan - 18 Months Series 1 - B - Growth Standard Chartered Fixed Maturity Plan - 18 Months Series 1 - A - Dividend

% of scheme asset size 254.53 254.53 99.55 99.55 99.55

VALUATIONS AND RISKS: 42 Amity Business School

Analysis of Stock Market

The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 22.84. For the year ending FY 09, the company is expected to report earnings per share of Rs.43.16. Thus at the current Market Price of Rs.652.15, the stock is trading at a one year forward P/E of 15.11. RATING: ACCUMULATE.

Infosys Technologies Limited

SECTOR: INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

SCORE CARD: Standard Deviation Institutional Holding (%) Dividend Yield P/E 65.28 40.49 2.33 22.23

Market Capitalization(Rs Cr) 101921 CMP(Rs.) 52 week - high


Amity Business School

1705.45 2141.95 1255.00 5.00


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52 week - low

Face Value (Rs.)

Analysis of Stock Market

All the values as on NSE on27/ 06/08

44 Amity Business School

Analysis of Stock Market STOCK PRICE MOVEMENTS (5TH MAY TO 27TH JUNE): X - axis: No. of days Y - axis: Value in Rs.

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Analysis of Stock Market

COMPANY PROFILE:

Infosys Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ: INFY) was started in 1981 by seven people with US$ 250. Today, it is a global leader in the "next generation" of IT and consulting with revenues of over US$ 4 billion. Infosys has a global footprint with over 40 offices and development centers in India, China, Australia, the Czech Republic, Poland, the UK, Canada and Japan. Infosys has over 91,000 employees. Infosys takes pride in building strategic long-term client relationships. Over 97% of their revenues come from existing customers. Fortune ranked Infosys as 10th among Top Companies for Leaders 2007. Infosys defines designs and delivers technology-enabled business solutions that help Global 2000 companies win in a Flat World. Infosys also provides a complete range of services by leveraging the domain and business expertise and strategic alliances with leading technology providers.

BUSINESS:
Infosys' service offerings span business and technology consulting, application services, systems integration, product engineering, custom software development, maintenance, reengineering, independent testing and validation services, IT infrastructure services and business process outsourcing.The refreshing approach of the company to consulting has been recognized by the industry and leading business publications. In July 2007, Consulting Magazine named Romil Bahl, managing director and co-founder of Infosys Consulting, Inc., among its list of 2007 Annual Top 25 Consultants. In January 2006, Forrester Research named Infosys among the leading Indian IT Services companies offering consulting services. The report said: "Infosys is best positioned to offer highvalue management consulting skills."

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Analysis of Stock Market SHAREHOLDING PATTERN:

Face Value Indian Promoters Sub total Institutional investors Banks Fin. Inst. and Insurance FII's Sub total Other investors Private Corporate Bodies NRI's/OCB's/Foreign Others Others Sub total General public Grand total

5.00 No. of Shares 94495978 94495978 24036054 190821914 231576661 16348351 16869562 112512428 145730341 100192778 571995758 % of Holding 16.52 16.52 4.20 33.36 40.49 2.86 2.95 19.67 25.48 17.52 100.00

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Analysis of Stock Market FINANCIALS:

2008-09 E Net Sales Operating profit Net profit OPM NPM EPS(Rs.) ROE 17,995.20 5,038.66 4,678.75 28.00 26.00 81.79 -

2007-08 15,648.00 4,963.00 4,470.00 31.72 27.37 78.15 NA

YoY Chg(%)* 19.00 17.52 18.16 -40Bps -60Bps 18.15 -

2006-07 13,149.00 4,223.00 3,783.00 32.12 27.97 66.14 33.89

2005-06 9,028.00 2,989.00 2,421.00 33.11 26.40 87.72 35.10

E = Expected, *for (07-08 and 06-07)

FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL: Infosys' services and business solutions are strengthened by alliances with leading technology partners. It recommends technologies to the client based on what is best for the client. In a marketing alliance, Infosys and the alliance partner jointly deliver business solutions which leverage Infosys' industry, functional and technical expertise, Infosys' Global Delivery Model and the alliance partner's technology and services. In a technology alliance, Infosys works with an alliance partner to build business and technical competency in the alliance partner's technology through training, engagement with the alliance partner's technical support and development teams and the development of tools and methodologies at Infosys' Centers of Excellence. MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTED IN THE COMPANY:

Scheme Franklin Infotech Fund - Growth Franklin Infotech Fund - Dividend UTI Growth Sector Fund - Software - Growth UTI Growth Sector Fund - Software - Dividend

% of scheme asset size 40.59 40.59 21.36 21.36

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Analysis of Stock Market

SBI Magnum Sector Funds Umbrella - IT Growth

9.05

VALUATIONS AND RISKS: The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 22.23. For the year ending FY 09, the company is expected to report earnings per share of Rs.81.79. Thus at the current Market Price of Rs.1705.45, the stock is trading at a one year forward P/E of 20.85. RATING: HOLD.

Larsen &Toubro

SECTOR: CAPITAL GOODS AND ENGINEERING

SCORE CARD:

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Analysis of Stock Market

Standard Deviation Institutional Holding (%) Dividend Yield P/E

219.02 54.30 0.84 31.44

Market Capitalization(Rs Cr) 68974 CMP(Rs.) 52 week - high 52 week - low Face Value (Rs.) 2265.80 4690.00 2055.55 2.00

All the values as on NSE on 27/06/08

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Analysis of Stock Market

STOCK PRICE MOVEMENTS (5TH MAY TO 27TH JUNE): X - axis: No. of days Y - axis: Value in Rs.

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Analysis of Stock Market

COMPANY PROFILE: Larsen & Toubro (L&T) is a technology-driven USD 7 billion company that infuses engineering with imagination. It offers a wide range of advanced solutions, services and products. L&T's in-house capabilities in technology development are complemented by tie-ups with world leaders. It provides state-of-the-art products & solutions to a large and diverse customer base. L&T was founded in Bombay (Mumbai) in 1938 by two Danish engineers, Henning Holck-Larsen and Soren Kristian Toubro. Both of them were strongly committed to developing India's engineering capabilities to meet the demands of industry. Beginning with the import of machinery from Europe, L&T rapidly took on engineering and construction assignments of increasing sophistication. Today, the company sets global engineering benchmarks in terms of scale and complexity. BUSINESS:

Larsen & Toubro (L&T) is a technology-driven USD 7 billion company that infuses engineering with imagination. It offers a wide range of advanced solutions, services and products. Larsen & Toubro Limited (L&T) is a technology, engineering, construction and manufacturing company. It is one of the largest and most respected companies in India's private sector. Seven decades of a strong, customer-focused approach and the continuous quest for worldclass quality have enabled it to attain and sustain leadership in all its major lines of business.

52 Amity Business School

Analysis of Stock Market SHAREHOLDING PATTERN:

Face Value Promoters holding Institutional investors Banks Fin. Inst. and Insurance FII's Sub total Other investors Private Corporate Bodies NRI's/OCB's/Foreign Others Directors/Employees Others Sub total General public Grand total

2.00 No. of Shares 63789649 48556421 158743787 11186252 2442118 3232312 49278207 66009495 67444714 292197996 % Holding 21.82 16.61 54.30 3.83 0.84 1.11 16.86 22.58 23.07 99.96

FINANCIALS:

2008-09 E Net Sales Operating profit Net profit OPM NPM EPS(Rs.) ROE 34,003.10 3,740.34 2,720.00 11.00 8.00 93.09 -

2007-08 25,187.48 2,814.63 2,173.42 11.17 8.43 74.34 27.50

YoY Chg(%)* 40.71 61.15 54.91 141 Bps 79Bps 24.81 3.02

2006-07 17,900.59 1,746.54 1,403.02 9.76 7.64 49.53 24.48

2005-06 14,883.68 957.50 1,012.14 6.43 6.56 73.66 22.05

E = Expected, *for (07-08 and 06-07)

53 Amity Business School

Analysis of Stock Market FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL: With the economic progress of the country and the prospects of the other businesses looking good, the company hopes to continue with the current momentum. The following points illustrate its achievements and a glimpse of what is to come. L&T-Paul Wurth Consortium Commissions Indias Largest Blast Furnace at Jamshedpur. L&T Bagged Electrical Project Orders worth Rs. 6,350 million in the Gulf Region. L&T and GE Energy entered Control System Partnership Agreement. MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTED IN THE COMPANY:

Scheme ICICI Prudential FMP S 39 - 3 M Plan A Growth ICICI Prudential FMP S 39 - 3 M Plan A Dividend BOB Balance Fund - Growth BOB Balance Fund - Dividend Baroda Global Fund - Growth

% of scheme asset size 99.61 99.61 26.55 26.55 14.92

VALUATIONS AND RISKS: The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 31.44. For the year ending FY 09, the company is expected to report earnings per share of Rs.93.09. Thus at the current Market Price of Rs.2265.80, the stock is trading at a one year forward P/E of 24.3. RATING: ACCUMULATE (STRONGLY RECOMMENDED).

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Analysis of Stock Market

Reliance Infrastructure Limited


(formerly Reliance Energy)

SECTOR: POWER AND ENERGY

SCORE CARD:

Standard Deviation Institutional Holding (%) Dividend Yield P/E

188.80 41.75 1.19 22.53

Market Capitalization(Rs Cr) 20970 CMP (Rs) 52 week - high 52 week - low Face Value (Rs.) 886.55 2641.00 562.00 10.00

All the values as on NSE on 27/06/08

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Analysis of Stock Market

STOCK PRICE MOVEMENTS (5TH MAY TO 27TH JUNE): X - axis: No. of days Y - axis: Value in Rs.

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Analysis of Stock Market

Reliance Infrastructure
COMPANY PROFILE: Reliance Energy Limited, now Reliance infrastructure limited incorporated in 1929, is a fully integrated utility engaged in the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. It ranks among Indias top listed private companies on all major financial parameters, including assets, sales, profits and market capitalization. The companys Vision is to be amongst the most admired and most trusted integrated utility companies in the world, delivering reliable and quality products and services to all customers at competitive costs, with international standards of customer care thereby creating superior value for all stakeholders and also to set new benchmarks in standards of corporate performance and governance through the pursuit of operational and financial excellence, responsible citizenship and profitable growth. BUSINESS: A constituent of the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group, Reliance Energy is India s foremost private sector utility with aggregate estimated revenues of Rs 9,500 crore (US$2.1 billion)and total assets of Rs 10,700 crore (US$2.4 billion). Reliance Energy distributes more than 21 billion units of electricity to over 25 million consumers in Mumbai, Delhi, Orissa and Goa, across an area that spans 1,24,300 sq.kms. It generates 941 MW of electricity, through its power stations located in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Karnataka and Goa.Reliance Energy companies currently pursue several gas, coal, wind and hydro-based power generation projects in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal with aggregate capacity of over 13,510 MW. These projects are at various stages of development. 57 Amity Business School

Analysis of Stock Market

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN:
Face Value Indian Promoters Sub total Institutional investors Banks Fin. Inst. and Insurance FII's Sub total Other investors Private Corporate Bodies NRI's/OCB's/Foreign Others Govt. Others Sub total General public Grand total 15652015 1448686 81368 6088813 23270882 29471135 236530262 6.62 0.61 0.03 2.57 9.84 12.46 100.00 42976519 43858727 98759602 18.17 18.54 41.75 10.00 No. of Shares 85028643 85028643 % Holding 35.95 35.95

FINANCIALS:

2008-09 E Net Sales Operating profit Net profit OPM NPM EPS(Rs.) ROE 7,891.46 631.31 1,104.80 8.00 14.00 46.70 -

2007-08 6,313.17 495.37 991.33 7.85 13.22 42.07 NA

YoY Chg(%)* 10.89 3.10 23.69 -59Bps 103Bps 27.32 -

2006-07 5,692.95 480.45 801.45 8.44 12.19 35.06 9.27

2005-06 3,998.22 712.32 730.89 17.82 15.86 34.42 9.24

E = Expected, *for (07-08 and 06-07)

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Analysis of Stock Market

FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL: The company has a number of projects in the hand and is poised to become a giant in the times to come. This was evident from the IPO issue of the company of approx.3 billion which was Indias largest IPO so far. The IPO was oversubscribed by about 89 times. Though due to the overall market correction, the price could not be maintained and the promoter offered a bonus issue of 3:5 shares to the shareholders to remain invested and be confident of the fundamentals of the company. The real power of the company will be unleashed after a few years when the projects are completed and start generating much more revenue for the company.

MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTED IN THE COMPANY:


Scheme BOB Growth Fund - Growth BOB Growth Fund - Dividend Taurus INFRA-TIPS - Growth Taurus INFRA-TIPS - Dividend Reliance NRI Equity Fund - Growth % of scheme asset size 8.70 8.70 8.23 8.23 8.07

VALUATIONS AND RISKS:

59 Amity Business School

Analysis of Stock Market The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 22.53. For the year ending FY 09, the company is expected to report earnings per share of Rs.46.70. Thus at the current Market Price of Rs.886.55, the stock is trading at a one year forward P/E of 18.98. RATING: ACCUMULATE FOR A LONG TERM INVESTMENT.

Reliance Industries Limited

SECTOR: OIL & GAS

SCORE CARD:

Standard Deviation Institutional Holding (%) Dividend Yield P/E

198.83 26.42 0.59 16.69

Market Capitalization(Rs Cr) 325508 CMP(Rs.) 52 week - high 52 week - low


Amity Business School Face Value (Rs.)

2182.65 3298.00 1676.10 10.00


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Analysis of Stock Market

All the values as on NSE on 27/06/08

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STOCK PRICE MOVEMENTS (5TH MAY TO 27TH JUNE): X - axis: No. of days Y - axis: Value in Rs.

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COMPANY PROFILE: The Reliance Group, founded by Dhirubhai H. Ambani (1932-2002), is India's largest private sector enterprise, with businesses in the energy and materials value chain. Group's annual revenues are in excess of US$ 34 billion. The flagship company, Reliance Industries Limited, is a Fortune Global 500 company and is the largest private sector company in India.Backward vertical integration has been the cornerstone of the evolution and growth of Reliance. Starting with textiles in the late seventies, Reliance pursued a strategy of backward vertical integration - in polyester, fibre intermediates, plastics, petrochemicals, petroleum refining and oil and gas exploration and production - to be fully integrated along the materials and energy value chain.The Group's activities span exploration and production of oil and gas, petroleum refining and marketing, petrochemicals (polyester, fibre intermediates, plastics and chemicals), textiles and retail. BUSINESS: The company is a significant contributor to India's economic growth:

Revenues equivalent to 3% of Indias GDP 13.4% of Indias total exports 4.9% of the Government of Indias indirect tax revenues 6.7% of the total market capitalization in India Weightage of 16.5% in the BSE Sensex Weightage of 12.5% in the Nifty Index

63 Amity Business School

Analysis of Stock Market SHAREHOLDING PATTERN:

Face Value Indian Promoters Sub total Institutional investors Banks Fin. Inst. and Insurance FII's Sub total Other investors Private Corporate Bodies NRI's/OCB's/Foreign Others Govt. Others Sub total General public Grand total

10.00 No. of Shares 746704874 746704874 85404722 259136306 384091089 72205802 11627417 3742983 53954815 141531017 181321621 1453648601 % Holding 51.37 51.37 5.88 17.83 26.42 4.97 0.80 0.26 3.71 9.74 12.47 100.00

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Analysis of Stock Market FINANCIALS: YoY Chg(%)* 25.60 27.98 78.38 31Bps 406Bps 71.02 0.61

2008-09 E Net Sales Operating profit Net profit OPM NPM EPS(Rs.) ROE 1,74,086.25 29,246.49 26,112.93 16.80 15.00 179.63 -

2007-08 1,39,269.0 23,306.00 19,458.00 16.73 13.88 133.82 20.10

2006-07 1,10,886.00 18,210.00 10,908.00 16.42 9.82 78.25 19.49

2005-06 89,124.00 14,299.00 9,069.00 16.04 10.10 65.06 20.08

E = Expected, *for (07-08 and 06-07)

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FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL:

The company has made various oil and gas discoveries in the recent times and these are considered to drive the success of the company in the times to come.

Credit Ratings of the company clearly reflect the confidence the world has in the companys prospects. Rating Agency CRISIL Fitch CRISIL CRISIL Moody's S&P Fitch Instrument Long Term Debt Long Term Debt Short Term Debt Working Capital Debt International Debt International Debt International Debt Rating AAA Ind AAA P1+ AAA Baa2 BBB BBB -

MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTED IN THE COMPANY:

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Scheme Baroda Global Fund - Growth Baroda Global Fund - Dividend Franklin India Index Fund - BSE Sensex Plan Growth Franklin India Index Fund - BSE Sensex Plan Dividend Tata Index Fund - Sensex Plan (A) - Growth

% of scheme asset size 18.04 18.04 16.01 16.01 15.87

VALUATIONS AND RISKS:

The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 16.69. For the year ending FY 09, the company is expected to report earnings per share of Rs.179.63. Thus at the current Market Price of Rs.2182.65, the stock is trading at a one year forward P/E of 12.15.

67 Amity Business School

Analysis of Stock Market RATING: ACCUMULATE.

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Conclusions
Based on the research done, the following conclusions and ratings are given for the various companies under consideration.

1. Bharti Airtel Hold. The company is doing well and looks forward to increasing both business penetration and profits thus creating value for the shareholders. Hence the rating - hold.

2. DLF Sell. Though the company is going at a decent pace, there doesnt seem to be much appreciation in the stock in the near future. Only the investors having a long term orientation are advised to hold the stock.

3. HUL Hold. The FMCG sector which is traditionally a slow growth sector is seeing a good growth due to rising middle class. The company seems to capitalize on this opportunity. Hence the rating- Hold.

4. ICICI Bank Accumulate. The Banking sector though is suffering from interest rate hardening, the performance of the second largest Bank of India has been better than its peers. The company has strong growth base and a large consumer base to cater and seems to be well positioned. Hence the rating accumulate.

5. Infosys Hold. The IT bellwether of the country has seen mixed response and faced challenges on export front due to Rupee appreciation. Now the situation as the currency 69 Amity Business School

Analysis of Stock Market has depreciated making the exports viable again and the company looks in a comfortable position. Hence the rating Hold. 6. L&T Accumulate. The company is experiencing rapid progress due to infrastructure and Engineering requirements boom and is in a perfect position to achieve brilliant results in the future. Hence the rating Accumulate.

7. Reliance Infrastructure Accumulate. The company has various projects in its kitty and is approaching towards them at a reasonable pace. Though the company will take some time to come in full swing, the overall future scenario of the company is extremely well. Hence the rating Accumulate for a long term investor.

8. RIL Accumulate. The company is one of the best companies of the country and is constantly creating new benchmarks. The companys refining capacity will become very large once the $5 Billion plant in Jamnagar gets completed in the coming months. The company seems to be poised to grow and perform and crate value for the shareholders. Hence the rating Accumulate.

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Implications for Future Research

The research on the above stocks has been done for the period 5th May to 27th June and the results and findings are reported as based on this period. During this period, the way the stocks performed on the bourses and the news and recent events which occurred in the company were taken into consideration. All the findings and conclusions thus pertain to the aforesaid period and are applicable for the near future. The stock market sentiments and companys policies and business keep on experiencing fluctuations and change with time. The model of research used done is widely accepted and implemented by professional financial advisors. Any further research on the subject may involve more complicated models like Tobins Q ratio, PEG ratio and Markowitz Criterion etc.

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References
Books:
Chandra P. (2008). Financial Management. (TMH) Pandey I.M. (2007). Financial Management. (VIKAS) Levin I. Richard &Rubin S.David. (2006). Statistics For Management. (PHI)

Newspapers:
The Economic Times Business Standard

Magazines:
Capital Markets Business Today
Outlook Money

Value Research

Internet:
Websites of NSE, BSE, RBI, SEBI, CSO, Bharti Airtel, DLF, HUL, ICICI, Infosys, L&T, Reliance Infrastructure, RIL, money.rediff, money control, google etc.

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