DOE Review for the week of July 20, 2012 www.iirenergy.

com

US Overview
US crude runs are at the highest point since 2007, nearly reaching 15.8 million barrels per day Padd 1 had another strong week, even though there were rumors of a VDU problem at Sun Philly Padd 2 gained due to completed turnaround work at Marathon Robinson Light maintenance allowed for Padd 3 to post another 8+ million barrel per day mark No CDU maintenance in Padds 4 and 5
DOE Summary Inventory (kb) Crude Gasoline Distillate Refinery Runs (kbd) US Padd 1 Padd 2 Padd 3 Padd 4 Padd 5 IIR Turnarounds (kbd) CDU US Padd 1 Padd 2 Padd 3 Padd 4 Padd 5 13-Jul-12 377,391 205,910 123,531 13-Jul-12 15,538 963 3,352 8,010 606 2,607 13-Jul-12 908 190 313 405 0 0 20-Jul-12 380,108 210,044 125,239 20-Jul-12 15,796 1,024 3,542 8,062 606 2,563 20-Jul-12 703 190 120 393 0 0 Change 2,717 4,134 1,708 Change 258 61 190 52 0 -44 27-Jul-12 694 190 0 504 0 0

Padd 1 As we stated last week, the brief vacuum unit disruption at Sun Philadelphia did not cause a reduction to crude runs at the refinery. This weeks crude run number in Padd 1 of 1,024 kbd adds further confirmation that Sun Philly and all other operational refineries in Padd 1 were performing very well.

for unplanned maintenance. At this point, IIR research expects an initial startup of this unit by the weekend. However, the track record for unit restarts at Sun Philly is not promising (using 1H 2011 as the reference point), so it is not unreasonable to expect this outage to last into next week. Padd 2 As we have been stating for weeks, Padd 2 crude runs would ramp up along with the completion of planned work at Marathon Robinson. In addition to IIR research and Genscape monitoring, this weeks crude run number of 3,542 kbd shows evidence that refineries in Padd 2 are returning to full health. Todays crude run number is the highest mark since April. With that said, there remains upside in Padd 2. Full rates at Robinson arent likely until next week (DOE stats ending the week of July 27), and Wood River is still on the mend from a brief distillate hydrotreater outage. With these two refineries fully operational, Padd 2 crude runs should reach a 2012 high.
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Padd 1 Capacity Utilization

105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2010

2011

2012

Next weeks stats (for the week ending July 27) will likely see a drop off from these levels, as the 50 kbd FCCU at Sun Philly was forced down

DOE Review for the week of July 20, 2012 www.iirenergy.com

Padd 3 Padd 3 crude runs continued the impressive streak of over eight million barrels per day this week. This marks the fourth consecutive week of 8+ million, and extends the weekly average of 8 + million to now eight weeks. However, for the week of July 27, there are two major events that could threaten this trend. First comes from the fire at Valero Meraux. At this point, we know the fire halted operations on the morning of Saturday, July 21. As of right now, IIR research has estimated a two week outage, but it is likely that the refinery could face extended down time above and beyond this time horizon. Merauxs main units are a 125 kbd CDU, 39 kbd FCCU, 36 kbd distillate hydrotreater and 32 kbd distillate hydrocracker. The second event that will have a negative impact on Padd 3 crude runs is the kickoff of a three week planned turnaround at Valero Port Arthur. The refinery is taking down a 75 kbd crude unit for heat exchanger cleaning. At this point, wed like to point out that US gasoline exports, which had been supporting Padd 3 crude runs, took a step down in this weeks DOE stats. We are fully aware that the weekly export number is a lagged number taken from the DOE monthly export, but wed like to point out that the trend is down from earlier in 2012. One possible reason for this could be the return of European refineries from maintenance. The following chart shows that Northwest Europe and Mediterranean turnarounds are at the lowest point of the year. These low turnarounds mean that European refiners are adding incremental light product barrels into the Atlantic Basin, and reducing the need for Padd 3 exports to pick up any slack. Healthy European refineries could also tell part of the story of todays 1+ million barrels per day of gasoline imports into Padd 1 that facilitated the four million barrel build in the US.
kbd 700
600

US Gasoline Exports

500
400 300 200 100 0

Aug

Oct

May

5yr Range 2010

Mar

Average 2011

2009 2012

kbd 3,000
2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Jan

NWE + MED CDU Turnarounds

Week of July 20

Feb

Mar 2012

Apr

May

Jun

2012 (forecast)

Padd 4 The upcoming turnaround at HollyFrontier Cheyenne (starts at the beginning of August) is the only downside for Padd 4 crude runs. Padd 5 Problems at Tesoro Wilmington were resolved over the week, but new problems have popped up at Phillips 66 Rodeo and Chevron El Segundo. IIR research is currently looking into these unplanned events. Over the past several weeks, these minor hiccups have not caused much of a reduction to Padd 5 crude runs.

A complete table of US refinery turnarounds can be found on the IIR Energy website by clicking here
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Nov
Jul

Dec

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DOE Review for the week of July 20, 2012 www.iirenergy.com

US Crude Runs

kbd 16,500
16,000 15,500

US Crude Runs

kbd 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000

Padd 3 Crude Runs

15,000
14,500 14,000

13,500 13,000
Oct Aug May Nov Dec Jan Feb Sep Apr Mar Jun Jul

Aug

Oct

May

5yr Range 2010

Average 2011

2009 2012

5yr Range 2010

Mar

Average 2011

2009 2012

kbd 1,700 1,500

Padd 1 Crude Runs

kbd 650
600 550 500

Padd 4 Crude Runs

1,300
1,100 900

700
500

450 400
Aug Oct May

Nov Nov Nov

Aug

May

Mar

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Dec

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Sep

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Average 2011

2009 2012

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2009 2012

kbd 3,700

Padd 2 Crude Runs

kbd 3,000 2,800 2,600

Padd 5 Crude Runs

3,500 3,300
3,100 2,900 2,700

2,400
2,200

2,000
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Aug

May

Mar

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Average 2011

2009 2012

5yr Range 2010

Mar

Nov

Dec

Feb

Sep

Apr

Average 2011

2009 2012

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Dec

Jan

Feb

Sep

Oct

Apr

Jun

Jun

Jan

Jul

Jul

Dec

Jan

Feb

Sep

Apr

Jan

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Jul

Jul

Dec

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DOE Review for the week of July 20, 2012 www.iirenergy.com

US CDU Turnarounds

kbd 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0

US Total CDU TARs

kbd 1,400
1,200 1,000

Padd 3 CDU TARs

800
600 400

200 0
Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Dec
2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 Fcst kbd 120 100

2009

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2012

2012 Fcst

kbd 700

Padd 1 CDU TARs

Padd 4 CDU TARs

600 500
400 300

80
60

200 100
0

40
20 0

Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Dec

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2011

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2012 Fcst

kbd 700

Padd 2 CDU TARs

kbd 700

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600
500 400

300
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300
200 100 0

Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Dec

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2012 Fcst

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Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Dec
2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 Fcst

Padd 5 CDU TARs

2009

2010

2011

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2012 Fcst

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DOE Review for the week of July 20, 2012 www.iirenergy.com

US FCCU Turnarounds

Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Dec

2009

2010

2011

2012

2012 Fcst

kbd 400 350

Padd 1 FCCU TARs

kbd 60 50

300
250 200 150

40
30

20
10 0

100
50 0

Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Dec

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2012 Fcst

kbd 350

Padd 2 FCCU TARs

kbd 300 250

300
250 200

200 150
100

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50
0

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2012 Fcst

Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Dec

Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Dec
2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 Fcst

Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Dec
2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 Fcst

kbd 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

US Total FCCU TARs

kbd 800
700 600

Padd 3 FCCU TARs

500 400
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Padd 4 FCCU TARs

Padd 5 FCCU TARs

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2012 Fcst

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DOE Review for the week of July 20, 2012 www.iirenergy.com

US Other (ex CDU, FCCU) Unit Turnarounds

kbd 2,500
2,000 1,500

US Total Other TARs

kbd 1,600
1,400 1,200

Padd 3 Other TARs

1,000 800
600 400

1,000 500 0
Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Dec

200 0
Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Dec
2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 Fcst kbd 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

2009

2010

2011

2012

2012 Fcst

kbd 600 500

Padd 1 Other TARs

Padd 4 Other TARs

400
300

200
100 0

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2009

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2012 Fcst

kbd 700

Padd 2 Other TARs

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Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Dec

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2012 Fcst

Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Dec

Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Dec
2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 Fcst

Padd 5 Other TARs

2009

2010

2011

2012

2012 Fcst

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