Period Ending

Net Income

30-Dec-11 30-Dec-10 30-Dec-09

-1,291,816 -104,667
78,329

Operating Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In

Depreciation
Adjustments To Net Income
Changes In Accounts Receivables
Changes In Liabilities
Changes In Inventories
Changes In Other Operating Activities
Total Cash Flow From Operating Activities
Investing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In
Capital Expenditures
Investments
Other Cash flows from Investing Activities
Total Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Financing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In
Dividends Paid
Sale Purchase of Stock
Net Borrowings
Other Cash Flows from Financing Activities
Total Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Effect Of Exchange Rate Changes
Change In Cash and Cash Equivalents

19,718
1,248,030
60,604
-3,805
-2,857
-115
29,759

16,947
135,020
-19,812
-51,564
-5,828
3,094
-29,386

49,775
-66,261
-21,433
-16,862
35,590
33,181
89,752

-15,075

-6,194

-16,080

-41,779
-56,854

463,615 -1,051,049
457,421 -1,067,129

72
10,019

3,550
-428,913
7,500
-417,863
-14,287
-4,115

491,828
528,429
-7,876
997,964
21,213
41,800

Depr % of revenue

0.0224684 0.0238175

0.072199

Coverage Ratios
Debt coverage
Interest coverage
Debt payment

0.0164764 -0.016045 0.0325904

1.5549893 0.9878702 2.4733898

10,091
-10,910
-27,914

30-Dec-08 AVERAGE

97,670

2008
Cash flows from operating activities of continuing operations
Net income / (loss)
-14,918
Adjustments to reconcile net income / (loss) to net cash provided by / (used in) operating activities:
Net (income) / loss from discontinued operations
-22,034
Depreciation and amortization
9,929
Deferred income taxes
-19,285
Unrealized foreign exchange (gains) / losses
133,528
Cost of debt extinguishment
1,156
Stock options fair value expense
3,850
Dividends received
0
Hedge fair value revaluation
0
Equity (income)/loss in affiliates
-1,168
Gain on fair value remeasurement of previously held equity interest
0
Impairment charge
0
Amortization of deferred charges
0
Other non cash items
2,025
Changes in operating assets and liabilities:
Accounts receivable
-84,480
Inventories
8,745
Prepayments and other current assets
13,864
Trade accounts payable
27,952
Other accrued liabilities and payables
38,506

Net cash provided by / (used in) operating activities from continuing operations
97,670
Cash flows from investing activities of continuing operations
Investment in fixed assets
-19,652
0.0173814 0.039495 Proceeds from the disposal of fixed assets
2,325
Investment in trademarks
0
Changes in restricted cash
0
Purchase of financial assets
-103,500
Disposal of subsidiaries
0
Acquisitions of subsidiaries, net of cash acquired
-548,799
Net cash provided by / (used in) investing activities from continuing operations
-669,626
Cash flows from financing activities of continuing operations
Borrowings on bank loans and overdraft facility
94,845
Borrowings on long-term bank loans
35,617
Payment of bank loans, overdraft facility and other borrowings
-23,131
Payment of long-term borrowings
0
Net borrowings of Senior Secured Notes
0
Payment of Senior Secured Notes
-26,996
Repayment of obligation to former shareholders
0
Hedge closure
0
Decrease in short term capital leases payable
-772
Increase in short term capital leases payable
1,216
Issuance of shares in public placement
233,845

Transactions with equity holders

Net borrowings on Convertible Senior Notes
Options exercised

0
304,403
1,899

Net cash provided by / (used in) financing activities from continuing operations
620,926
Cash flows from discontinued operations
Net cash provided by / (used in) operating activities of discontinued operations
-655
Net cash (used in) investing activities of discontinued operations
-2,920
Net cash provided by / (used in) financing activities of discontinued operations
-8,032
Net cash provided by/(used in) discontinued operations
-11,607
Adjustment to reconcile the change in cash balances of discontinued operations
11,607
Currency effect on brought forward cash balances
-34,564
Net increase / (decrease) in cash
14,406
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period
70,233
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period

84,639

Supplemental Schedule of Non-cash Investing Activities

Common stock issued in connection with investment in subsidiaries 134,631
Supplemental disclosures of cash flow information
Interest paid
Income tax paid

52,734
33,865

n) operating activities:

Cash flows from operating activities of continuing operations

Net income / (loss)
Adjustments to reconcile net income / (loss) to net cash provided by operating activities:
Net loss from discontinued operations
Depreciation and amortization
Deferred income taxes
Unrealized foreign exchange (gains) / losses
Cost of debt extinguishment
Stock options fair value expense
Dividends received
Hedge fair value revaluation
Equity (income)/loss in affiliates
Gain on fair value remeasurement of previously held equity interest
Impairment charge
Amortization of deferred charges
Impairments related to assets held for sale
Other non cash items
Changes in operating assets and liabilities:
Accounts receivable
Inventories
Prepayments and other current assets
Trade accounts payable
Other accrued liabilities and payables (including taxes)
Net cash provided by operating activities from continuing operations
Cash flows from investing activities of continuing operations
Purchase of fixed assets
Proceeds from the disposal of fixed assets
Purchase of intangibles (licenses)
Changes in restricted cash
Purchase of trademarks
Disposal of subsidiaries
Acquisitions of subsidiaries, net of cash acquired
Net cash provided by / (used in) investing activities from continuing operations
Cash flows from financing activities of continuing operations
Borrowings on bank loans and overdraft facility
Payment of bank loans, overdraft facility and other borrowings
Payment of long-term borrowings
Net borrowings of Senior Secured notes
Payment of Senior Secured Notes
Repayment of obligation to former shareholders

Hedge closure
Decrease in short term capital leases payable
Increase in short term capital leases payable
Issuance of shares in public placement
Transactions with equity holders
Options exercised
Net cash provided by / (used in) financing activities from continuing operations
Cash flows from discontinued operations
Net cash used in operating activities of discontinued operations
Net cash provided by investing activities of discontinued operations
Net cash provided by financing activities of discontinued operations
Net cash used in discontinued operations
Adjustment to reconcile the change in cash balances of discontinued operations
Currency effect on brought forward cash balances
Net increase / (decrease) in cash
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period
Supplemental Schedule of Non-cash Investing Activities
Common stock issued in connection with investment in subsidiaries
Supplemental disclosures of cash flow information
Interest paid
Income tax paid

NCC % of sales
2009
2010
2011
2008
0.19
81,037 -104,667 -1,291,816

2009
-0.02

2010
0.21

-16,486

151,967

2011 Average
0.08
0.16

-8,360 11,778
0
11,274 16,947
19,718
-34,941 -41,591
35,533
-38,760
-2,911
139,728
0 14,114
0
3,782
3,206
2,605
10,868 10,859
0
9,160
0
0
5,583 -14,254
8,814
-32,727
0
-7,898
20,309 131,849 1,057,819
38,501
0
0
0
0
7,355
-1,175 21,970
4,074
-21,433
35,590
27,906
-92,552
75,690

-19,812
-5,828
518
5,243
-56,807

60,604
-2,857
-115
-6,773
2,968

89,752

-29,386

29,759

-16,080
-6,194
3,874
0
0
0
-481,419 481,419
0
-6,000
0 124,160
-573,504 -135,964

-15,075
511
-693
0
-17,473
0
-24,124

-1,067,129 457,421

-56,854

5,810 63,853
-112,084 -174,251
-265,517 -19,098
929,569 67,561
0 -367,954
-28,814
0

57,512
-47,417
0
0
0
0

108,001

70,201 <-- total Non-cash charges

-14,417
-535
0
490,974
-7,876
854

0
0
976
0
7,500
3,550

0
-76
0
0
0
72

997,964 -417,863

10,091

19,527
-2,596
-11,656

2,806
-330
100

0
0
0

5,275

2,576

-5,275
-2,576
21,213 -14,287
41,800
-4,115
84,639 126,439

0
-10,910
-27,914
122,324

126,439 122,324

94,410

81,197

41,344

23,174

68,865 111,535
16,270 29,544

103,836
5,139

on-cash charges

Inputs
Beta_equity
Growth Rates:
Cedc
Industry
Sector
S&P 500
Economy
RF_10yr
Excess period
Risk Premium
Cost of equity
Cost of debt
Debt spread - t-bond
Tax rate - Cedc 10-Q
Profit margin
NCC % of rev
Working Cap % of rev
Share price
Shares outstanding
MV of equity
MV of debt
D/V
E/V
WACC
FCFF
Period
Revenue
NI
NCC
Interest expense
Taxes
FCInv - Cap expenditures
Working Capital
Increase in WC
FCFF
PV of FCFF
Sum of FCFF
Enterprise value
Value to comm equity
Intrinsic value

1.64
60.60%
16.41%
15.02%
10.71%
3.50%
6.50%
5
5.79%
16.00%
5.61%
6.75%
21.00%
13%
16%
46%
3.3
94,556,308
312035816.4
1,664,328,274
0.842116229
0.157883771
7.25%

12.24%

78,842,022

2010 2011 Actual

2011 Adjusted
-2
-1
-1
877,587,000
877,587,000
-1,291,816,000
-233,997
1,267,748,000
70,201,000
111,649,000
111,649,000
-32,205,000
-32,205,000
15,075,000
15,075,000
404,799
252,784,000
252,784,000
-252,379,201
-252,379,201
301,438,911
395,473,914

2012
0
848,433,058
108,938,092
100,000,000
109,596,875
86,581,531
12,500,000
387,659,301
134,875,301
148,144,323
148,144,323

3,336,200,311
4,062,230,311
2,256,071,311
23.86 the way you did this looks fine-although we will have to adjust it to the ne

0.094968572
0.10422
0.1158

2013
1
878,128,215
112,750,925
100,000,000
419,596,875
331,481,531
12,500,000
401,227,376
13,568,076
518,164,381
483,143,632

2014
2
908,862,702
116,697,208
100,000,000
100,296,875
79,234,531
12,500,000
415,270,334
14,042,958
269,388,781
234,205,405

2015
3
940,672,897
120,781,610
100,000,000
100,296,875
79,234,531
12,500,000
429,804,796
14,534,462
272,981,680
221,288,892

2016 Residual
4
973,596,448
125,008,966
100,000,000
1,334,096,875
1,053,936,531
12,500,000
444,847,964
15,043,168
1,251,402,330
1,724,614,355
945,870,705
1,303,547,354

ave to adjust it to the new deal debt structure-but that shouldnt have a material impact on the true value

is it typical for ni to be regularly higher than fcf?

how does this compare to the historical cash flow statement-its imperative that were not overly optomistic on forecasting th
we might not be discounting this at a high enough rate - as a going concern, they will increase their equity/debt-which will in
also, interest rates will increase in the future

tomistic on forecasting this

equity/debt-which will increase wacc

Statement of Operations data:

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2,011
Sales
1,573,702 1,782,602
Excise tax
-862,165 -905,015
Net sales
284,240
398,050 571,242 689,414 711,537
877,587
Cost of goods sold
173,471
254,615 321,274 340,482 383,671
538,218
Gross profit
110,769
143,435 249,968 348,932 327,866
339,369
Sales, general and administrative expenses 51,614
62,897 114,607 164,467 351,458 1,320,652
Operating income / (loss)
59,155
80,538 135,361 184,465
-23,592 -981,283
Non-operating income / (expense), net
Interest expense, net
-30,385
-33,867
-47,810
-73,468 -104,866 -111,649
Other financial income / (expense), net
17,212
13,594 -123,801
25,193
6,773 -139,952
Amortization of deferred charges
0
0
0
-38,501
0
0
Other income / (expense), net
978
-2,272
-488
-934
-13,572
-17,913
Income/(loss) before taxes and equity in net income
46,960 from 57,993
unconsolidated
-36,738
investments
96,755 -135,257 -1,250,797
Income tax (expense)/benefit
-8,057
-9,054
-1,382
-18,495
28,114
-32,205
Equity in net earnings/(losses) of affiliates
0
0
1,168
-5,583
14,254
-8,814
Net income / (loss) from continuing operations
38,902
48,939
-36,952
72,677
-92,889 -1,291,816
Discontinued operations
Income / (loss) from operations of distribution31,203
business 36,087
27,203
9,410
-11,815
0
Income tax benefit / (expense)
-5,929
-6,856
-5,169
-1,050
37
0
Income / (loss) on discontinued operations 25,275
29,231
22,034
8,360
-11,778
0
Net income / (loss)
64,177
78,170
-14,918
81,037 -104,667 -1,291,816
Less: Net income attributable to noncontrolling8,727
interests in1,068
subsidiaries3,680
2,708
0
0
Net income /(loss) attributable to CEDC
55,450
77,102
-18,598
78,329 -104,667 -1,291,816
Net income / (loss) per common share, basic 1.55
1.96
-0.34
1.51
-1.49
-17.9
Net income / (loss) per common share, diluted 1.53
1.93
-0.34
1.5
-1.49
-17.9
Average number of outstanding shares of common
35,799stock at
39,871
year end 44,088
53,772
70,058
72,172
Gross margin
Operating margin
Profit margin
NOPM
Tax rate
Working capital % of revenue

39%
36%
44%
51%
46%
39%
21%
20%
24%
27%
-3%
-112%
23%
20%
-3%
12%
-15%
-147%
0.208116 0.2023314 0.236959 0.267568 -0.03316 -1.11816
-0.17157 -0.156122 0.037618 0.191153 0.207856 -0.025748
0.641247 0.4293757 0.295953 0.517944 0.568908 0.2880444

Balance Sheet Data:

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Cash and cash equivalents
147,937
70,233
84,639 126,439 122,324
94,410
Restricted cash
0
0
0 481,419
0
0
Working capital
182,268
170,913 169,061 357,078 404,799
252,784
Total assets
1,377,988 1,859,346 2,436,138 4,439,100 3,396,182 2,072,529
Long-term debt and capital lease obligations,394,342
less current468,509
portion 804,941 1,331,815 1,251,933 1,237,941
Stockholders equity
520,599
817,725 993,511 1,685,162 1,564,671
266,370

Common Size

2011
2010
2009
2011
2010
2009
ASSETS
Current Assets
Cash and cash equivalents
94,410 122,324
126,439 0.045553 0.036018 0.028483
Restricted cash
0
0
481,419
0
0 0.10845
Accounts receivable, net of allowance
466,317
for doubtful
478,379
accounts
475,126
of $20,357
0.224999
and $10,066
0.140858
respectively
0.107032
Inventories
116,897
93,678
92,216 0.056403 0.027583 0.020774 <-- good
Prepaid expenses and other current
36,989
assets 35,202
33,302 0.017847 0.010365 0.007502
Loans granted
0
0
1,608
0
0 0.000362
Loans granted to affiliates
0
0
7,635
0
0 0.00172
Deferred income taxes
8,455
80,956
82,609 0.00408 0.023837 0.018609
Debt issuance cost
2,962
2,739
7,078 0.001429 0.000806 0.001594
Current assets of discontinued operations
0
0
267,561
0
0 0.060274
Total Current Assets
726,030 813,278 1,574,993 0.350311 0.239468
0.3548
Intangible assets, net
463,848 627,342
773,222 0.223808 0.18472 0.174184
Goodwill, net
666,653 1,450,273 1,484,072 0.321662 0.42703 0.334318
Property, plant and equipment, net
179,478 201,477
215,916 0.086599 0.059325 0.04864 <-- good
Deferred income taxes
22,295
44,028
27,123 0.010757 0.012964 0.00611
Equity method investment in affiliates 0 243,128
244,504
0 0.071589 0.05508
Debt issuance costs
13,550
16,656
17,492 0.006538 0.004904 0.00394
Non-current assets of discontinued operations
675
0
101,778 0.000326
0 0.022928
Total Non-Current Assets

1,346,499 2,582,904 2,864,107 0.649689 0.760532

Total Assets

2,072,529 3,396,182 4,439,100

LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS EQUITY

Current Liabilities
Trade accounts payable
144,801 114,958
Bank loans and overdraft facilities85,762
45,359
Income taxes payable
8,766
5,102
Taxes other than income taxes 188,307 182,232
Other accrued liabilities
44,501
55,070
Short-term obligations under Senior Notes
0
0
Current portions of obligations under
1,109
capital leases
758
Deferred consideration
0
5,000
Current liabilities of discontinued operations
0

113,006
81,053
3,827
208,784
91,435
363,688
481
160,880
194,761

Total Current Liabilities

473,246 408,479 1,217,915
Long-term debt, less current maturities
0
106,043
Long-term obligations under capital leases
532
1,175
480
304,645
Long-term obligations under Senior
932,764
Notes 1,250,758 1,225,292
Long-term accruals
2,027
2,572
3,214
Deferred income taxes
92,945 168,527
198,174
Non-current liabilities of discontinued operations 0
2,820

0.6452
1

Total Long Term Liabilities

1,332,913 1,423,032 1,536,023
Stockholders Equity
Common Stock ($0.01 par value, 120,000,000
727
shares
708 authorized,
694 70,752,670 and 69,411,845 shares issued at December 31, 2
Additional paid-in-capital
1,369,471 1,343,639 1,296,391
Retained earnings
-1,131,566 160,250
264,917
Accumulated other comprehensive27,888
income of60,224
continuing operations
82,994
Accumulated other comprehensive income of discontinued
0
40,316
operations
Less Treasury Stock at cost (246,037 -150
shares at December
-150
31,-150
2010 and December 31, 2009, respectively)
Total CEDC Stockholders Equity 266,370 1,564,671 1,685,162
Noncontrolling interests in subsidiaries
0
0
Total Equity

266,370 1,564,671 1,685,162

Total Liabilities and Stockholders

2,072,529
Equity 3,396,182 4,439,100
Liquidity & Solvency Ratios
Current
1.53414926 1.990991 1.2931879
Quick
1.18485312 1.470585 0.4939302
Cash
0.19949455 0.299462 0.1038159
LT debt - equtiy
Debt - equity
Total debt
Fin leverage

5.00399069
6.78063971
0.87147586
7.78063971

0.909477
1.170541
0.539285
2.170541

0.9114987
1.6342275
0.6203821
2.6342275

ADJ - 2011 Average

877,587
538,218
339,369
262,833
76,536

2012

($1,664,328,274.09)
future value
total

100,000.00
$146,410.00

2013

200,000.00
$266,200.00

2014

250,000.00
$302,500.00

-192,978

-233,997

-233,997

operating incom

39%
9%
-27%

13%
0.22874367
0.199504534
0.456912065

200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2006

2007

doing a comparison doesnt hold much value because there are not any public companies that are similar to cedc
constellation(stz)

Feb-12

$
$
$
$

85
437
1,374,500

$
$
$
$

2,034,300
866,400
2,632,900
1,255,800

7,109,900

491,500

708,100

$
$

1,199,600
608700
204,200

2,421,400

3,234,300

2,600

2,107,300

2,676,000

7,109,900

1.70
0.00044

1.20863
1.65691
0.62362
2.65691

2015

300,000.00
$330,000.00

2016

350,000.00
350,000.00
$1,395,110,000.00
($1,664,328,274.09)
($269,218,274.09)

operating income

operating income

2007

2008

blic companies that are similar to cedc

2009

sum
after-tax cost of debt

Debt Outstanding
Principal
Total interest due
Due
310000000
18600000 semi 2013
380000000
173375000
2016
507000000
224981250
2016
70000000
10500000
2016
66700000
29598125
2016
102600000
30780000
2016
107500000
32250000
2016
$
1,543,800,000
520084375

Total
Long-term debt obligations
Interest on long-term debt
Short-term debt obligations
Interest on short-term debt
Operating leases
Capital leases
Contracts with suppliers

1,237,409
412,755
85,762
3,520
46,182
1,641
7,867

Total

1,795,136

Forecasted Interest Expense

Total interest pmts

Interest rate
0.03
0.09125
0.08875
0.03
0.08875
0.06
0.06

Weight
Weighted rate
FV weighted maturityWeighted interst pmt
0.200803213
0.006024096
620000000
18600000
0.246145874
0.022460811
1900000000
173375000
0.328410416
0.029146424
2535000000
224981250
0.045342661
0.00136028
350000000
10500000
0.043205078
0.003834451
333500000
29598125
0.066459386
0.003987563
513000000
30780000
0.069633372
0.004178002
537500000
32250000
1
0.070991628
6789000000 $
520,084,375
0.056083386
4.397590361 $
118,265,762
Less than 1 yr

1-3 yrs

0$
93,296
85,762
3,520
11,670
1,109
7,684

304,645 $
158,460
0
0
26,000
532
183

203,041

2012
203,041,000
9300000
34675000
44996250
2100000
5919625
6156000
6450000
109,596,875 $

2013
163273333.3
319300000
34675000
44996250
2100000
5919625
6156000
6450000
419,596,875 $

489,820

2014
163273333.3

2015
163273333.3

34675000
44996250
2100000
5919625
6156000
6450000
100,296,875 $

34675000
44996250
2100000
5919625
6156000
6450000
100,296,875 $

2016
53666333.33
414675000
551996250
72100000
72619625
108756000
113950000
1,334,096,875

pv

($1,664,328,274.09)

3-5 yrs
932,764
160,999
0
0
8,512
0
0

More than 5 yrs

0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1,102,275

Not using these anymore, took into account the new debt deals the best I could and forecasted int pmts

Poland
Volume Sales Mix by Product Category
Domestic Vodka
Vodka Export
Imports Beer
Wine
Spirits other than vodka
Other
Total

2009
75%
2%
2%
13%
2%
6%
100%

Russia
Volume Sales Mix by Product Category
Vodka domestic
Vodka export
Ready to drink products
Wine and spirits other than vodka
Total

Segment
Poland
Russia
Hungary
Total Net Sales

2008

2009

398000
129800
43000

259000
394000
37000

570,800 $

2010
73%
3%
7%
8%
5%
4%
100%

2011
75%
5%
5%
10%
3%
2%
100%

2010
78%
7%
15%
0%
100%

2011
68%
11%
14%
7%
100%

Segment Net Sales Twelve

months ended December 31,
2010
2011
220,411
460,605
30,521

230,515
616,065
31,007

690,000 $ 711,537 $ 877,587

2010

Year Ended December 31,

2011
($ in thousands)
225,080
34,814
10,837

S,G&A
Marketing
Depreciation and amortization

178,756
32,851
8,002

Sub-Total
Impairment charges in Poland
Fair value adjustments

219,609
270,731
131,849 1,057,819
0
-7,898

Total operating expense

351,458 1,320,652

Year ended December 31,

2010
2011

Segment
Poland
Russia
Hungary
Sub-Total
Impairment charges
Fair value adjustments
Corporate overhead
General corporate overhead
Option expense
Total operating income/(loss)

Raw materials and supplies

In-process inventories
Finished goods and goods for resale
Total

33,550
27,345
77,732
42,713
5,442
5,448
116,724
75,506
-131,849 -1,057,819
0
7,898
-5,261
-3,206

-4,263
-2,605

-23,592

-981,283

2010
26,847
3,314
63,517
93,678

December 31,
2011
22,237
2,655
92,005
116,897

Goodwill, as at December 31, 2009

Foreign exchange impact

1,484,072
-33,799

Goodwill, as at December 31, 2010

1,450,273

Impairment charges during the period

Acquisitions during the period
Foreign exchange impact
Goodwill, as at December 31, 2011

-930,127
269,555
-123,048
666,653

Estimated dollar amts

Growth of Spirit Class
2010
2011 % Growth
$ 160,900 $
172,886
0%
$
6,612 $
11,526
5%
$
15,429 $
11,526
5%
$
17,633 $
23,052
5%
$
11,021 $
6,915
5%
$
8,816 $
4,610
5%
$ 220,411 $
230,515

Est amt 2012

$
172,886
$
12,102
$
12,102
$
24,204
$
7,261
$
4,841
$
233,396

Estimated dollar amts

Growth of Spirit Class
2010
2011 % Growth
$ 359,272 $
418,924
-10%
$
32,242 $
67,767
5%
$
69,091 $
86,249
5%
$
$
43,125
5%
$ 460,605 $
616,065

Est amt 2012

$
377,032
$
71,156
$
90,562
$
45,281
$
584,030

Segment Net Sales Twelve

months ended December 31,
Est 2012
2012 (spirit class estimate)

230,515 $
554,459 $
31,007

233,396 polands trend is down

584,030 russias trend looked good through 2011;except that recent performance is not so great (2012
31,007 Also keep in mind hugely that russias long term vodka forecast due to regulations looks horri

815,981 $

848,433 (So maybe these two as a range) I also believe this to be between conservative and realistic

Year Ended December 31,

($ in thousands)

Year ended December 31,

December 31,

russian vodka market should decrease greatly long term as the government wants to decrease vodka consumption by 72%
we need to see if rouste trading will enable cedc to develop other markets

rformance is not so great (20121q10q)

t due to regulations looks horrible

een conservative and realistic

ase vodka consumption by 72%

CEDC Acquisitions
whitehall
date
6/18/2008
6/18/2008
2/24/2009
2/24/2009
3/15/2009
6/5/2009
6/18/2009
9/15/2009
2/7/2011
2/7/2011
total

date
2010 dvd

payments
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

The Whitehall Group is one of the leading importers and distributors of premium win

47,000,000
200,000,000
5,876,352
25,263,000
2,000,000
11,270,575
25,120,000
11,625,082
23,000,000
68,500,000
7,500,000 cedc also gave whitehall 7mm for working captial(this did not make much se
427,155,009 this is in line for what cedc paid for the last 20% econ and 51% voting

cedc received
$
10,900,000 that year cedc had changed its accounting method from consolidation to eq
As a result of this transaction, the Company acquired 100% of the voting and

whitehall had net sales of 175mm in 2007 - idk what fcf was
whitehall had net sales of 155mm in 2011; which was consolidated into the 2011 10k
dvd discount model

value
dividend
discount rate
growth rate assumed

1.I feel the dvd discount model is appropriate because cedc would want to get as much as they could in
2. the question to answer is what growth rate whitehall would need for this price to make sense
$
$

427,155,009
13,080,000 this is adjusted for the 100% economic rights cedc now owns
12% this is the rate cedc uses for russian affiliates

8.9378797597685400% 1. for this model, they assumed a 8.9% dvd perpeturity; But read the note b
2. in reality - this should be modeled using a three-period approach. 12% for

still dont know fcf for whitehall - this dvd could be from retained earnings - which means that they are just fulling investors a
breakeven
1.lets look at this acquisition from a breakeven perspective, disregarding growth and synergies
39.18853297 2. so without even discounting, it would take 39 years to breakeven for this acquisition

Import Portfolio

We are one of the leading importers of wine and spirits in Russia. Whitehall, our main import company, has exclusive rights to import and di

SPIRITS

WINES

Cortel Brandy

Concha y
Toro
Hardys
Robert
Mondavi
Paul
Masson
Nobilo
Trivento
PascualTos
o
Janneau
Kumala&Fl
agstone
Pere
Magloire

DeKuyper
Great Valley
Jose Cuervo
Label 5

we could look at the market at estimate a value for these import products

s and distributors of premium wines and spirits in Russia.

ptial(this did not make much sense) not sure of date

0% econ and 51% voting

thod from consolidation to equity - which makes sense for the 10.9mm dvd
cquired 100% of the voting and economic interest in the Whitehall Group and changed the accounting treatment for interest in Whitehall

to get as much as they could in dvd, as much for there 80% stake warrented
this price to make sense

cedc now owns

erpeturity; But read the note below this one because this is way to simplistic and unrealistic
hree-period approach. 12% for excess growth period. Another period with a high discount rate due to the fact that the industry is very un

they are just fulling investors and making bad-econ choices

g growth and synergies

this acquisition

as exclusive rights to import and distribute a number of brands of spirits and wines into Russia. Through Whitehall, we have one of the leading platforms fo

reatment for interest in Whitehall from the equity method of accounting to consolidation starting from February 7, 2011.

he fact that the industry is very uncertain. Then 3.5% for long term

we have one of the leading platforms for importing and distributing faster growing imported brown spirits and wines in Russia. Exclusively imported brands

February 7, 2011.

n Russia. Exclusively imported brands include the following:

Month
06/2012

S&P 500
Price
1362.16

08/1998
07/1998

957.28
1120.67

Beta

1.64

Cedc
Return Price
Return
3.96%
2.86
-27%

-14.58%
-1.16%

1.78
1.96

-9%

For smaller and riskier firms

If interest coverage ratio is
greater than
to
Rating is
-100000
0.499999
D
0.5
0.799999
C
0.8
1.249999
CC
1.25
1.499999
CCC
1.5
1.999999
B2
2.499999
B
2.5
2.999999
B+
3
3.499999
BB
3.5
3.9999999
BB+
4
4.499999
BBB
4.5
5.999999
A6
7.499999
A
7.5
9.499999
A+
9.5
12.499999
AA
12.5
100000
AAA

Spread is
12.00%
10.50%
9.50%
8.75%
6.75%
6.00%
5.50%
4.75%
3.75%
2.50%
1.65%
1.40%
1.30%
1.15%
0.65%