Currencies Daily Report

Monday| February 4, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| February 4, 2013

Highlights
US ISM Manufacturing PMI increased to 53.1-mark in January. Indias HSBC Markit Mfg PMI fell to 53.2-mark in prior month. US Unemployment Rate rose to 7.9 percent in the month of January. European Unemployment Rate declined to 11.7 percent in Dec. UKs Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.8-mark in the last month. Asian markets are trading higher on the back of favorable manufacturing and consumer sentiments economic data from the US on Friday. US Non-Farm Employment Change declined by 39,000 to 157,000 in January as against a rise of 196,000 in December. Unemployment Rate rose to 7.9 percent in January from earlier rise of 7.8 percent in December. Average Hourly Earnings was at 0.2 percent in January as compared to rise of 0.3 percent a month ago. Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment increased by 2.5 points to 73.8level in January when compared to 71.3-mark in prior month. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI rose by 2.4 points to 53.1-mark in January as against a rise of 50.7-level a month earlier. Total Vehicle Sales was at 15.3 million in January with respect to 15.4 million in December. Indias HSBC Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined by 1.5 points to 53.2-mark in January from earlier rise of 54.7level in December.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jan13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Jan13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Jan13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5998.9 19781.2 14009.79 1513.2 17318.9 1957.8 60351.2 11191.3 97.77 1669.40 3194.20 8310.00 #N/A 101.57 Prev. day -0.6 -0.6 1.1 1.0 -0.7 -0.2 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 1.9 1.3 #N/A 0.0

as on February 1, 2013 WoW -1.2 -1.6 0.8 0.7 -2.3 0.6 -1.3 -0.1 2.0 1.0 2.4 3.3 #N/A 101.7 MoM -0.3 0.0 4.3 6.1 2.2 -2.7 -2.6 5.8 5.0 1.5 6.8 5.9 #N/A 0.2 YoY 13.8 13.5 10.3 14.1 6.4 0.6 -6.6 26.1 1.5 -5.0 -6.5 -0.2 #N/A -2.7

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.9 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, statement from US Federal Reserve that it will continue purchasing securities till outlook for employment improves sustainably along with favorable economic data from the US also added downside pressure on the currency. It touched weekly low of 78.92 & closed 79.14 on Friday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 79.14 53.16 53.43 53.43 Prev. day -0.1 0.2 0.04 0.05

as on February 1, 2013 WoW -0.9 1.2 -0.50 -0.51 MoM -1.8 3.2 -2.90 -2.90 YoY 0.0 -7.8 7.78 7.77

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee appreciated by 1.2 percent as a result of central bank cutting the key interest rates and setting a lower inflation target for March 2013. Apart from that, selling of dollars from exporters coupled with rising foreign inflows also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account unfavorable manufacturing data from the country. The Indian Rupee touched a weekly high of 53.06 and closed at 53.16 against dollar on Friday. For the month of January 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs 1,042.20 crores ($195.57 million) as on 1st February 2013. Year to date basis, net sr capital inflows stood at Rs.23,101.30 crores ($4,254.90 million) till 1 February 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for February 4, 2013 Support 53.30/53.20 Resistance 53.60/53.75

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Monday| February 4, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 1.3 percent in the last week on the back of rise in the Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMI along with decline in the regions unemployment rate. Additionally, weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat global market sentiments also acted as a positive factor for the currency. Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.5 points to 46.1-mark in January as against a rise of 44.6-level in December. Italian Manufacturing PMI rose by 1.1 points to 47.8-level in January from earlier rise of 46.7-mark in December. European Final Manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 points to 47.9-mark in last month as compared to earlier rise of 47.5-level in December. Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate rose to 11.2 percent in December with respect to earlier gain of 11.1 percent a month ago. European Unemployment Rate declined to 11.7 percent in December from rise of 11.8 percent in November. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Flash Estimate rose at slow pace of 2 percent in January as against a rise of 2.2 percent in December. The Euro touched a weekly high of 1.3711 and closed at 1.3639 against dollar on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on account of expectations of rise in European investor confidence along with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped as a result of rise in Spanish unemployment change data. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 72.60/72.40 73.05/73.20 valid for February 4, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Feb 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3639 72.58 72.84 72.8 Prev. day 0.4 -0.3 0.77 0.80

as on February 1, 2013 WoW 1.3 -0.1 1.77 1.75 MoM 4.4 -1.3 0.17 0.16 11.95 11.93 YoY 3.8

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Feb 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.569 83.457 84.50 Prev. day -1.0 -1.19 0.23

as on February 1, 2013

WoW -0.7 -1.50 -0.59

MoM -2.4 -6.06 -5.36

YoY -0.7 7.48 8.18

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.7 percent on account of decline in Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) which fell by 0.6 points to 50.8-mark in January from rise of 51.4-level in December. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on the back of positive consumer confidence data, upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. The Sterling Pound touched a weekly low of 1.5673 and closed at 1.569 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in todays trade on the back of forecast for rise in countrys construction PMI, upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for February 4, 2013 Support 84.20/83.80 Resistance 84.90/85.30

84.48

0.20

-0.62

-5.38

8.14

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Monday| February 4, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated around 2 percent in the last week on the back of rise in the risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Apart from that, industrial production also rose less than expected; decline in household spending along with rise in the unemployment rate also added downside pressure on the currency. Japans Monetary Base was at 10.9 percent in January from 11.8 percent in December. The Yen touched a weekly low of 92.96 and closed at 92.72 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate as a result of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for February 4, 2013 Support 57.80/57.50 Resistance 58.30/58.70
Source: Telequote

as on February 1, 2013 Last 92.72 0.5726 58.06 58.07 Prev day 1.1 -1.33 -1.18 -1.18 WoW 2.0 -3.41 -3.16 -3.14 MoM 5.2 -9.31 -8.81 -8.80 YoY 21.7 -11.02 -10.86 -10.84

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on February 4, 2013

Indicator Spanish Unemployment Change Construction PMI Sentix Investor Confidence Factory Orders m/m Country Euro UK Euro US Time (IST) 1:30pm 3:00pm 3:00pm 8:30pm Actual Forecast 150.0K 49.7 -2.2 2.3% Previous -59.1K 48.7 -7.0 0.0% Impact High High Medium Medium

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