Curve fitting and its application of time quota for garment production

Ran Zhao1, Xuemei Ding2

Fashion Institute of Design, Donghua University, Shanghai, 200051, China

Abstract: In small batch production of garment enterprises, fixed working hours will
change with the proficiency of workers and work status of workers in different times, in order to reflect the dynamic changes of the working hours, the application of SPSS curve fitting is an effective method to solve this problem. Fitting results show the change regulation of the single piece production time of clothing with cumulative production increase and the variation regulation of fixed working hours of workers at different times of day. Thus it provides a new method for scientific and reasonable estimate of apparel production performance and reducing the cost of garment production.

Keywords: garment production; curve fitting; learning curve 1. Introduction

In the garment production process, When style and varieties transform frequently, the workers will encounter a new manufacturing process which will lead to the low daily output preliminary, with the production time continues, the workers proficiency will improve gradually, and the daily output will continue to increase. But the daily production will be maintained at a stable value after a certain time. Song Jinghui[1]found that the clothing style batch conversion will have impact on the production efficiency in the production process. Ye Ning, Yan Yuxiu Studies[2] have shown that the fixed working hours of clothing production are a dynamic indicator, it will be affected by the impact of clothing bulk coefficient. On the other hand, Lan Li studies [3] have shown that the indoor environment as well as the workers' state from early morning until late night at different times will also affect the production efficiency. Workers physiological and psychological state are also different at different times of the day. These factors will impact the fixed working hours of clothing production and production efficiency. Therefore the factory

should give full consideration to the impact of apparel production plan and operating costs exposed by production line proficiency and working condition of the workers. The study applied SPSS curve estimation and learning curve theory to clothing production management and established a simple regression model. It performance the relationship of fixed working hours change with time. According to the learning curve of the pipeline to determine the bulk coefficient, We use batch coefficient was used to correct standard working hours, and provide a reference for the enterprise to develop the scientific fixed working hours.

2. The learning curve fitting of the apparel massive production

2.1. The learning curve fitting For a new style of clothing, There will be an adaptation period in the early stages of the production, the efficiency is relatively low and there is a starting floss. The efficiency will be improving gradually with the improvement of the operators proficiency and the processing time per unit product will be reduced gradually, and come to be stabilized finally. This phenomenon can be described to be a learning curve phenomenon. The learning curve is a dynamic production function, it refers to units of equipment in the production process will increase with the cumulative production, and product unit working hours will gradually decline, but the product units working hours will tend to be stable with the cumulative production reaches of a certain quantity. Such a function of the cumulative average working hours and the cumulative production is called learning curve; and the cumulative average working ratio of doubling production and before is called the learning rate [3]. Learning effect contains two stages: First, the learning stage, unit production time is gradually decreasing with the increase of the product number in the stage; Second, the standard stage, unit production time is basically stable and can be called the available standard production time in the stage [4]. Y=t1X-a a=(1) (2)

lgC lg 2

Among this, YCumulative average working hours; t1Working hours of producing the first product; XCumulative production; aLearning curve; CLearning rate, it indicates the learning effect that is situation the cumulative average working Y changes with cumulative production X.

working time per unit product Learning phase Quantity Figure 1 Learning curve diagram stage Standard

2.2. Data sources This paper did the field investigation of factory A, take the leisure suit of plant A as an example, the quantity of the leisure suit was1225.The factory arranged a group of operators to fulfill the quota with a total of 14 days. The dates of the first day and the last day are quite different with the normal situation, so it is reasonable to reject the dates of the first day and the last day in the process of fitting, and take the data of the next day as the starting data to calculate. The production time data of factory A was: the time of overtime work is 12 h; the time of normal work is 8 h. The group of producing the leisure suit consists of 25 workers. Daily working time is calculated as in the following: total daily working time = per person working hours * number of workers. Total overtime work time = 60 * 12 * 25 = 18000min Total normal work time = 60 * 8 * 25 = 12000min The daily output statistics table of leisure suit is shown as Table 1.

Time/day

Per day production / pc 52 55 83 87 90 95 103 106 108 108 109 110

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Table 1 Production statistics of leisure suit Cumulative The total time of the Accumulated production/ pc daily working working time/min /min 52 12000 12000 107 12000 24000 190 18000 42000 277 18000 60000 367 18000 78000 462 18000 96000 565 18000 114000 671 18000 132000 779 18000 150000 887 18000 168000 996 18000 186000 1106 18000 204000

Average production time /min 230.77 224.30 221.05 216.61 212.53 207.79 201.77 196.72 192.55 189.40 186.74 184.44

2.3. Establishment of the learning curve Make the learning curve function fitting with the data in Table 1 with SPSS, the fitting of the curve is shown in Figure 2. A power curve fitting method was used to establish the equation, taking X as independent variables, Y as dependent variables, the multiple correlation coefficient of the fitting equation is 0.953, and the coefficient of determination R2 = 0.908 (close to 1), for the goodness of fit test , analysis of variance showed F = 98.112, P = 0.0000, goodness of fit is very good, fitting equation is valid, and the learning curve equation: Y=323.813X-0.077 In the equation, X is the cumulative production; the Y is the average time required for processing a unit of a product.

Figure 2. Learning curve fitting Fig.

2.4. Correction of standard working hours From the data in Table 1 and Figure 2 can be found that in the first eight days of the production, the daily output increased significantly. From the ninth day, the production tended to be stable. Throughout the production process, with the increasing of production, the working hours of the unit product are gradually reduced and finally stabilized. The cumulative production of the first 8 days is 671, We made 8 days later as a standard stage, the first 8 days as the learning phase, the total production 462 of the first six days as the production batch of the suits. In accordance with the total working hours of 193 minutes, the fixed working hours of this volume are: t=

n 462 = =4.8r=t-m=4.8-0.077=0.886 s 95

T=q*r=193*0.886=170.998min

3. Curve fitting of worker status

After the production coming into a stable state, recording the work of the workers state from 8:00 am to 17:00 on the 9th day, selecting the procedure of sewing of pocket cloth and recorded the workers operating time every one hour with video. 3.1. Draw Scatter According to the sequence Graphs the Scatter Simple, select the time variable and working hours variable sequentially into the X-axis and Y-axis, and click OK key to draw scatter plot in Figure 3.

Figure 3. scatter plot of observations moment and working hours

3.2. Curve estimates

Viewing from the scatter plot, it shows obviously a curve relationship between two variables, but to determine which model the two observables is applicable to, it needs further calculation. SPSS curve fitting theory provides a method to describe the characteristics of the sample data approximation functions. According to the functional modules of Curve Estimation in SPSS17.0 software, in the main menu, click the Analyze, and select Regresion from the drop-down menu: Curve Estimation, pop-up curve estimates the main dialog. Only the analysis of variance of quadratic polynomial Quadradic model were statistically significant from the statistical results of each model, and R2 = 0.906, very close to 1, indicating that the goodness of fit is very good, the fitting curve and the observed curve are relatively consistent. The fitting curve is shown in Figure 4.The results of variance analysis: F value is 33.827, significant level of F value is 0.000, and thus regression equation is statistically significant. The establishment of the regression equation: Y= 159. 139 -7.585X+0.258X2

Figure 4. Fitting curve of observation time and working hours

3.3. Analysis of Results It is finally to use Quadradic model can be used to establish a regression equation of two variables fixed working hours and time by the analysis of SPSS calculation, it shows the relationship between the two correspond to the quadratic curve. The fitting curve

drops firstly, and then decreases to the minimum, ending up with gently rising, indicating that in the day time, the workers take the longer working time and less efficient due to not enter the state, and then gradually reduce the working time because of coming into the state, for the sake of the lunch break, the work efficient is lower at the beginning of afternoon, after then the working hours gradually reduced, and reaches a minimum at 16:00, that is, the moment of the highest efficiency. Finally it begins to rise due to the burnout of workers, and efficiency gradually reduces.

4. Conclusion
In garment production, the relationship between cumulative average production time of the single piece and the cumulative production quantity is in line with the laws of the learning curve. Through the learning curve, a corresponding dynamic time quota for different quantities can be developed which can help the enterprises to improve their management level in order to provide more accurate time quota data to meet the needs of small batch production management. There are differences of day work efficiency of the workers in different moments. SPSS quadratic polynomial curve fitting was used to establish a regression equation in order to meet the relationship with conic curve. It firstly declines in the curve fitting, and then gently rises, and reaches a minimum at 3-4 o'clock in the afternoon, that is the moment of minimum labor and maximum work efficiency. Therefore, when the factory arranges production planning, it can put bottleneck process as far as possible in worker efficiency higher moments at 10-11 points or afternoon 3-4.

REFERENCES
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