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Source: Sociological Forum, Vol. 19, No. 1 (Mar., 2004), pp. 63-87 Published by: Springer Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4148807 . Accessed: 30/01/2013 09:24
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Studies on ethnic movements have largely overlooked the global dimensions of ethnic social movements. Drawing on social movement theories and the world culture approach, I argue that linkage to global civil society gives rise to ethnic mobilization because it diffuses models of claim-making based on human rights ideas, while intergovernmental networks suppress ethnic mobilization as they enhance state power and authority. Tobit analyses on violent and nonviolent ethnic mobilizations show that, controlling for domestic factors, linkage to global civil society raises the potential for ethnic social movements, while intergovernmental networks do not have a strong impact on ethnic mobilization.
KEY WORDS: ethnic mobilization; social movement; human rights;world polity; globalization.
INTRODUCTION Recent empirical research has found a ubiquitous and steady increase in the number of ethnic mobilizations in the five decades following World War II (Gurr, 1993a). Figure 1 summarizes the rise of ethnic social movements, both violent and nonviolent types, from 1945 to 1994.3 Many scholars have attempted to understand this worldwide increase in ethnic social movements. Focusing on the effects of internal social structural changes in modern
1An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1998 meeting of the American Sociological Association in San Francisco. 2Department of Sociology, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York 11794; e-mail: ktsutsui@notes.cc.sunysb.edu. 30ut of all the observed groups, 80.8% mobilized in nonviolent manners, and 41.6% engaged in violent political mobilization in the most recent period, compared with 26.3% and 8.6%, respectively, in the first observed period. Details of the data are discussed below. 63
0884-8971/04/0300-0063/0 ? 2004 Plenum Publishing Corporation
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a
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150 100
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Fig. 1. Number of ethnic groups engaging in violent and nonviolent mobilizations (1945-1994).
societies, they put forth some useful theoretical frameworks that account for specific cases of ethnic mobilization (Gellner, 1983;Hechter, 1975; Newman, 1991; Nielsen, 1985; Olzak and Nagel, 1986). However, a framework that adequately explains the global and ubiquitous increase in ethnic mobilizations has yet to emerge. I argue that this is due to the tendency in the field to focus primarily on national and local politics. Given the global nature of the increase, it is curious that few studies have examined global processes that might affect ethnic groups across the globe. Olzak and Tsutsui (1998) is a notable exception to this. They examined how processes at the level of the world system might influence local ethnic conflict and found that peripheral status in the world system and membership in intergovernmental organizations decrease ethnic nonviolent protest, but that among peripheral countries intergovernmental organization memberships have a positive effect on ethnic protest. While these findings provide new insight in the field, their analysis is limited to the periods prior to the 1980s and does not examine the effects of linkage to global civil society, which I argue is an important factor in contemporary ethnic politics.4 Building on their analysis, I examine how linkage to the intergovernmental world, which is still dominated by concerns for state sovereignty, and ties with global civil society, which is the primary locus of international human rights activities, might influence ethnic political mobilization in the
4In addition, their analysis is at the country level and therefore does not examine some important group-specific characteristics that might influence ethnic mobilization.
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Global Civil Society and Ethnic Social Movements in the Contemporary World
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contemporary world. My core argument is that linkage to global civil society gives rise to ethnic mobilization because it diffuses models of claim-making based on human rights ideas. Intergovernmental networks, on the other hand, are not expected to encourage ethnic mobilization, as they enhance state power and authority more than they empower ethnic minorities. Drawing on social movement theories and the world culture approach, I formulate a theoretical framework for understanding the global processes of contemporary ethnic mobilizations, and test its validity in statistical data analyses. Controlling for other relevant factors, I analyze violent and nonviolent ethnic mobilizations separately, thus sorting out the conditions that induce the different types of mobilization. I conclude by discussing the implications of the cross-national analyses. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESES Ethnic mobilization in this study refers to a collective action against the state by a group of people who are perceived, by themselves or others, to constitute a different category based on their shared origin and culture (Omi and Winant, 1994; M. G. Smith, 1986; Yinger, 1976).5 It is worth noting that strong ethnic solidarity is not a requirement for ethnic mobilization: it can and does emerge in the process of collective action (Barth, 1969; Hobsbawm and Ranger, 1992). Yet, studies on ethnic mobilization tend to focus on the outcomes, assuming that elements of ethnicity existed prior to mobilization. Ideally, a comprehensive study of ethnic mobilization should examine all the potential ethnic groupings in the world and investigate when, where, and why some of them engage in ethnic mobilization, while others remain latent categories. However, such data are not available and will be very difficult to collect cross-nationally. Thus, with the caution about ethnogenesis in mind, the present study examines potential causes of mobilization by ethnic groups. Theoretical Background Studies of ethnic political mobilization have tended to focus on domestic factors rather than international ones. This is not surprising, considering that most works in the field are case studies and that even comparative studies typically include only a handful of countries. These studies tend to magnify internal social structural changes that seem most directly relevant to
5Since such action is usually directed at the government dominated by members of the majority ethnic group, I use the terms "mobilization" and "social movement" interchangeably.
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the emergence of ethnic mobilization. While the internal changes certainly play important roles, these studies do not fully explain why countries with various levels of development and different types of social structures experience much the same increase in ethnic mobilizations (Gurr, 1993a). The global increase suggests that there is an underlying global process that can be understood only by examining international dimensions of ethnic politics.6 I draw on social movement theories and the world culture approach to develop a theoretical framework for examining the international processes. Social movement theories have undergone an enormous growth and elaboration in the last few decades (McAdam, 1982; McAdam et al., 1996; Tarrow, 1998; Tilly, 1978; Zald and McCarthy, 1987). As a result, various approaches in the field have converged into three main analytical focuses: political opportunities, resource mobilization, and framing (McAdam et al., 1996). Using these frameworks, social movement research has produced many insights into how social movements emerge and develop. However, as McCarthy (1997) and McAdam (1998) point out, its traditional emphasis on domestic politics has been a serious limitation in the field, preventing examination of important factors that lie outside the national borders. In response to this concern, some important contributions on international dimensions of social movements have emerged in the last few years. They have examined international political opportunity structures (Imig and Tarrow, 1999; Marks and McAdam, 1996; McAdam, 1998), transnational flows of human and material resources for movements (Keck and Sikkink, 1998a; Smith et al., 1997), and new patterns of framing that reflect sensitivity to global audiences (Klandermans et al., 1999). Correspondingly, a few incipient attempts to theorize global dynamics of contentious politics have appeared (Keck and Sikkink, 1998b; McCarthy, 1997; Tarrow, 1998). The current study builds on this emerging literature, as it examines global sources of political opportunities for ethnic social movements, transnational flows of human and material resources that facilitate ethnic movements, and cognitive framing that takes advantage of global discourses to legitimate ethnic mobilization. The second line of theory I draw on, labeled the "world culture approach" or "world polity perspective," explores how global models and
6To be fair, social scientists have begun to recognize the importance of the international dimensions of ethnic politics in recent years. Their focal topics include when and how the international community should intervene in domestic ethnic disputes (Brown, 1993, 1996; Esman and Telhami, 1995; Ryan, 1995), how, when, and why ethnic antagonisms spread across national borders (Lake and Rothchild, 1998; Midlarsky, 1992), and how power struggles at the international level might affect local ethnic politics (Clark, 1998; Nagel and Whorton, 1992). These studies provide a great deal of new insight about contemporary ethnic mobilization that points to a new direction in the field. However, few of these studies are concerned about explaining the global increase in ethnic mobilizations, and therefore theoretical tools to explain the global increase have yet to emerge.
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norms influencelocal politics.Researchin this school shows that national governmentsand other local actorstend to complywith the culturalnorms and standardmodels of the international communityas they increasetheir involvement in internationalactivities.Such compliance can be a result of materialpressures,culturalinfluences,or both (DiMaggio and Powell, 1983). As a result, isomorphicpolitical and organizationalstructuresand behaviorthat are in accordancewith internationalmodels emerge in disparate local contexts (Finnemore,1996;Meyer, 1999;Meyer et al., 1997a; PowellandDiMaggio,1991).Empirical studieshave documentedthe spread of similarsocioculturalmodels in nationalwelfareprograms(Thomasand Lauderdale,1988),waves of decolonization(Strang,1990),nationalschool curricula(Meyer et al., 1992),growthof female enfranchisement (Ramirez et al., 1997), and expansionof a world environmentalism regime (Meyer et al., 1997b).Similarglobalprocessesseem to be at work in the global rise of ethnicmobilization,and the worldcultureapproachprovidestheoretical tools to examinethem. The two theoreticaltraditionscomplementeach otherverywell to produce a theoretical frameworkthat explains the global-level processes of contemporaryethnic mobilization.While the world culture approachexplicates the macroprocess by which global models influencelocal politics, social movementtheorieselucidateactualmechanisms whichglobalfacby torscircumscribe local socialmovements.7 these two lines of theoryhave Yet not had muchexchangewith each other.In this study,by combininganalytical tools from the two theoreticaltraditions, wish to begin a constructive I between them. dialogue International Linkagesand EthnicMobilization In thissection,usingthe two lines of theorydiscussedabove,I formulate a theoreticalargumentthat the global expansionof humanrightsmodels in the last severaldecadeshas facilitatedethnicsocialmovements,particularly when ethnicgroupsare linked to global civil society.It is beyond the scope of this studyto addressfullyhow humanrights,and ethnicminorityrightsin haveevolvedinto a key globalpoliticalissue.A generalconsensus particular, humanrightsregime the exists,however,concerning rise of an international in the decadesfollowingWorldWarII-although the level of its influencein each period is contested (Buergenthal,1997;Donnelly,1986).The internaof tionalhumanrightsregimefirstbecamevisibleafterthe establishment the United Nations,as evidencedby the U.N.Charterin 1945and the Universal
7This addresses one of the presumed weaknesses of the world culture approach, which is the lack of explication of such actual mechanisms (Finnemore, 1996).
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man rightstoday.Ethnicminorityrightshave been at the core of the human rightsregime,alongwith women'srights,children's rights,and laborrights.8
To understand the impact of this global development on local actors, including ethnic groups, it is important to note that governmental and nongovernmental actors have played different roles in the evolution of global
few decades through such events as the completion of the International Bill of Human Rights in 1966 and Amnesty International's winning of the Nobel Prize in 1977. The end of the Cold War gave an additional thrust to this development, and many organizations and activists operate to promote hu-
humanrights.Whileintergovernmental networksactivelypromotedhuman actors WarII period,nongovernmental rightsin the immediatepost-World have taken the initiativein much of the internationalhumanrights activity since then (Donnelly, 1998; Lauren, 1998; Mullerson, 1997; Weiss and Gordenker, 1996; Wiseberg, 1992). Because nongovernmental actors are less concerned about eroding state sovereignty, which global human rights moting human rights ideas and pressuring human rights violators, which are
activitiesalmost inevitablydo, they are more active and effective in prooften governments.9 contrast,intergovernmental networkstend to be inIn
effective and inconsistent in dealing with human rights problems. They are ineffective because governments tend to be apprehensive about intervening
in othercountries'internalaffairsfor fearit mightundermine sanctityof the state sovereigntyand invite criticisms theirown humanrightsproblems. for They are inconsistentbecause the balanceof power alwaysfactorsinto politicaldecisions,and they rarelytake action againstpowerfulcountries.
Scholars in the world culture approach have also suggested the different roles of governmental and nongovernmental actors as a general feature of global politics. They argue that nongovernmental actors tend to take the role of creators of global norms and standards, whereas governmental agents
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and Thomas, 1997; Jang and Luo, 2000; Meyer et al., 1997a). Some propose that intergovernmental networks enhance the legitimacy of the state and expand its power and authority over its citizens (Olzak and Tsutsui, 1998), while international nongovernmental organizations create and diffuse global models and standards to empower civil society (Boli and Thomas, 1999). Building on these debates, I examine how governmental and nongovernmental actors influence ethnic social movements differently. Human rights is a particularly pertinent issue for testing the different influences, given the divergent roles these actors have played in its expansion. Not concerned about undermining state sovereignty, nongovernmental actors have actively promoted and diffused human rights models in global civil society. Governmental actors, on the other hand, have cautiously and reluctantly sanctioned what have become widely accepted norms in the form of international treaties and conventions. Even these international governmental instruments, however, are largely symbolic, and their enforcement power has been limited, particularly without constant cooperation and pressuring by nongovernmental actors.10The intergovernmental networks tend to be concerned more about governments' interests than about the welfare of citizens and therefore work to preserve state authority and power. Thus, I hypothesize that the more a government engages in intergovernmental activities, the more it enhances its legitimacy and authority, and therefore the more difficult it becomes for its citizens, including ethnic minorities, to challenge the state in social movements. Linkages to global civil society, on the other hand, empower ethnic minorities and encourage their political mobilization. First, ethnic minorities with easy access to global civil society are more likely to use the "boomerang process" that allows them to pressure their governments through the international community (Keck and Sikkink, 1998a). This is possible because the world culture of human rights has created an international context in which a poor human rights record can have serious political implications for rightsviolating governments. For instance, bad human rights records are often used as a reason for excluding a country from powerful international organizations,11 and for halting financial support for a country from international funding organizations (Mullerson, 1997).12In extreme cases, such as South
10Forexample, most human rights treaties only ask member states to submit reports on their practices regarding human rights, and do not have any authority to rectify cases of human rights violations (Donnelly, 1995). 11For example, human rights issues have been central to the debate surrounding Turkey's bid for membership in the European Union and China's participation in the World Trade Organization. 12United States and European countries most often take the initiative in halting economic aid to countries that egregiously violate international human rights norms. The United States has stopped financial aid to foreign countries on human rights grounds on more than 100
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Africa and former Rhodesia, a country could face international sanctions because of its internal human rights problems.13 The ultimate significance of human rights issues in these international political processes is debatable, as other political factors such as power balance and material concerns often play more tangible roles.14Nevertheless, the increasing power of the human rights language in the international political arena has undoubtedly rendered many countries more sensitive to their human rights practices, thus making them vulnerable to claims by ethnic minorities (Risse et al., 1999). As the world culture approach would hold, ethnic minorities that have linkage to global civil society are more likely to be aware of global political opportunities and are more likely to take advantage of the new-found vulnerability of the government in the era of global human rights. If the government adopts accommodative policies in response to the international pressure, granting ethnic groups more access to institutional politics and more influence over policy debates, this would, according to social movement theories, encourage further ethnic political mobilization.15 Furthermore, forceful repression of ethnic movements is less likely because it can be condemned as a violation of basic human rights and prove costly for the government's reputation in global politics. This new political opportunity structure would increase the potential for political mobilization by ethnic groups to the extent that they are connected to global civil society. Second, linkages to global civil society provide ethnic groups with mobilizational resources as well. As the literature on global dimensions of social movements reports, transnational flows of mobilizational resources have become an important factor in contemporary social movements (Keck and Sikkink, 1998a; Loveman, 1998; Smith et al., 1997). Such resources reach local actors, including ethnic groups, more easily if the country is connected to global civil society. In an isolated country, ethnic groups will have difficulty obtaining information on those international organizations that can assist their movements. External actors will also find it difficult to support such movements, as flows of human and material resources tend to be blocked by
occasions since the beginning of the Carter administration in 1977 (Stohl et al., 1989:201202). Tomasevski (1989) documents how powerful international organizations like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have begun to take human rights issues into consideration in their funding decisions over the last several decades (Lauren, 1998:278). 13It is worth noting that external intervention in the domestic minority's problems dates back to pre-World War II era, although its extent and frequency were much less in the period prior to the emergence of the international human rights regime (Krasner and Froats, 1998). 14Because of these political factors, countries such as China have been rather unrelenting toward criticisms from outside regarding their human rights practice. Yet, as they become increasingly involved in international activities, they are becoming more attentive to these criticisms. 15Even if it does not directly affect an ethnic group, a policy addressing issues concerning other disadvantaged categories of people such as women and children, or other ethnic groups in the same country, might raise the awareness and expectations of the group.
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the government. Those resources include not only funds to mobilize people but also strategic and ideological advice for mobilization (Keck and Sikkink, 1998a; McAdam and Rucht, 1993; Smith et al., 1997; Tarrow, 1998). Third, as the world culture approach would predict, if a country is closely involved in international affairs, its populations, including ethnic groups, are more likely to be exposed to and be influenced by information from the international community (Porta et al., 1999; Risse et al., 1999; Strang and Meyer, 1993). Such information includes reports of social movements by ethnic and other identity groups as well as general discourses on international human rights. Such information facilitates mobilization because it provides activists with clues as to how to effectively stage protests and what goals they can legitimately pursue (Giugni, 1995; McAdam and Rucht, 1993). Since international discourse commonly sets a higher standard of human rights than is actually practiced in most countries, this awareness tends to raise the potential for ethnic mobilization. International human rights discourse also facilitates the framing efforts of leaders of ethnic political activity. They can justify their claims and mobilize support by drawing on frames used in other ethnic movements or by referring to international human rights documents. Through these processes, linkages to global civil society raise the potential for ethnic mobilization. Thus, I hypothesize that the more linkages a country has to global civil society, the more likely is an ethnic group in the country to mobilize.
Other Factors To evaluate the effects of global linkages on ethnic mobilization properly, we must consider some additional factors. Modernization is an important factor that cannot be ignored in a study of ethnic mobilization. Many scholars have examined how modernization causes social structural changes that make ethnic politics salient (Anderson, 1991; Brubaker, 1996; Calhoun, 1997; Gellner, 1983; Haas, 1997; Hobsbawm, 1992; A. D. Smith, 1986). These studies have since coalesced into two dominant approaches: the internal colonialism and the competition model (Clark, 1998:1268;Nielsen, 1985:133). The two lines of theory differ on how modernization gives rise to ethnic mobilization. The former emphasizes growing inequality between the core and peripheral regions within a country as a result of industrialization (Clark, 1998; Hechter, 1975; Nielsen, 1985), which increases peripheral ethnic minorities' disadvantages, while the latter focuses on the growing mobility of populations as a result of urbanization, which intensifies competition between formerly segregated groups (Barth, 1969; Belanger and Pinard, 1991; Olzak, 1992; Olzak and Nagel, 1986). While this important
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difference is not to be ignored, they agree on the core assertion that modernization and attendant internal social structural changes give rise to ethnic mobilization.16 This modernization thesis has been widely accepted in the literature on ethnic mobilization. However, new findings in the field suggest that while modernization increases ethnic mobilization as a whole, it might actually decrease ethnic violence (Gurr, 1993b). Literature on social movements echoes this point. It is accepted wisdom in the field that political opportunities available in a polity shape the form of social movements (McAdam et al., 1996; Tarrow, 1998; Tilly, 1978). In political systems where the aggrieved can take institutionalized routes such as nonviolent protest and lobbying to voice their grievances, they are more likely to avoid violent activities. The greater its level of modernization, the more likely a country is to have such institutionalized processes available. Furthermore, modern states usually monopolize the control of military power and police force, which renders opposition activity potentially costly. In such countries, the cost differential between violent and nonviolent mobilization is so high that the latter is strongly encouraged.17 While open access to political institutions is a key to such tempering effects on political mobilization, it is also important for activists to understand the merits of nonviolent strategies. Modern societies tend to have more highly educated populations and opinion leaders that recognize the merits of nonviolence (Williams, 1994:63).18Violent activities are costly in these settings not only because of the physical danger to participants but also because they risk alienating the movement from the general public. This political culture is also a factor in reducing the level of violence of social movements. Therefore, the more modernized a country, the less likely its ethnic groups are to resort to violence. Combining the arguments above, I hypothesize that the more modernized a country, the more likely are its ethnic groups to engage in nonviolent mobilization, but the less likely they are to resort to violence. In addition to modernization, the literature on ethnic movements often discusses such group-specific characteristics as (a) cultural distinctiveness, (b) separatist tendency, (c) organizational cohesion, and (d) the degree of
16Several scholarshave attemptedto reconcilethe two models and carriedout comparative studiesto examinedifferent conditions whichone ortheotheris moreapplicable for (Belanger andPinard, BrownandBoswell,1997; 1992; Nielsen, 1991; Gurr,1993a,b; NagelandWhorton, 1985;Ragin,1979). and thosewhopursueradical calculus engage 17Nevertheless, goalsoftenignorethiscost/benefit
in terrorist attacks and other violent actions.
18AsInglehart pointsout, social movementsin these countriesoften drawon postmaterialist values,whichprioritizenoneconomicfactorssuch as sense of belongingand aestheticconcernsas theirgoals (Inglehart, 1977,1990).Thispostmaterialist sensitivity mightalso render
violence an unattractive option for ethnic groups.
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economicandpoliticaldisadvantages importantfactorsthat circumscribe as ethnic mobilization(Gurr,1993a;Williams,1994). (a) Many observersargue that culturaldistinctivenesscontributesto the developmentandmaintenance strongethnicidentities,which of increasethe likelihoodof ethnicmobilization. Thisperspectivepresupposesthat ethnicityis an extensionof kinshipties based on cultural and racial similarities. Culturaldifferencesserve as markers distinctions(Barth, make in-group/out-group by whichindividuals 1969). Some scholarsconsiderthat these culturaldistinctionsand attendant ethnocentrismare at the core of intergroupconflicts (Henderson, 1997). This logic leads to a hypothesisthat the cultural distinctivenessof a group increasesthe likelihood of ethnic mobilization. (b) Some studieshave identifiedthe existenceof a separatisttendency as one of the importantvariablesfor predictingethnic mobilization (Brown and Boswell, 1997;Gurr, 1993a,b).An ethnic group with a historyof autonomyis more likely to have separatistgoals. When the groupis concentratedin one geographicarea,the likelihood furtherincreases.Suchgroupswith separatist goalstend to be more activein mobilizingefforts(BrownandBoswell, 1997).Thus, I hypothesizethat an ethnic group with historicalautonomy and concentration more likely to mobilize. is geographical structuresare importantin any social (c) Organizational mobilizing movement staged in modern society (Zald and McCarthy, 1987). Hannan (1994) arguesthat as modernization makes most governments strongerand largerin scale, ethnicmovementsalso become larger in scale and better orchestratedthroughstrong leadership and highly coordinatedstructure. Tilly (1978, 1984) also discusses how the growthof modernnation-statesinducedthe gradualemerwhich tend to be largerin gence of "nationalsocial movements," scale and more systematicin theiractivities.These arguments lead to a hypothesis that the more cohesive and united the organizational structureof an ethnic group,and the largera grouprelative to the size of the country'spopulation,the more likely it will be to mobilize. (d) Grievance theories emphasize how disadvantagesand ensuing grievancesamonga groupof people lead to collectiveaction.These theories were severely criticizedfor their inability to predict the in timingof mobilization,and have recededconsiderably the social movementliteraturein favorof resourcemobilizationandpolitical while grievancesare prevalent, opportunitystructureapproaches:
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resources and opportunities arise at certain time to trigger social movements. Nevertheless, it is reasonable to argue that more disadvantaged groups are generally more likely to mobilize. While grievance theories generally prove ineffective in dynamic analyses of social movements, the analyses in this study are not longitudinal. Thus, I use a simple hypothesis that relative disadvantages increase the likelihood of mobilization. I use these variables mainly to clarify the nonspurious effects of international linkages. Thus, if domestic factors are the primary causes of ethnic mobilization, international linkages will show little to no effect. These domestic variables will not only help to clarify the effects of international linkages, but may also shed some light on the accuracy of the prevailing arguments about the causes of ethnic mobilization. DATA AND OPERATIONALIZATION The data in the present analysis include group-level and country-level variables. The Minorities at Risk data set provides all the group-level information, including the two dependent variables (Minorities at Risk Project, 1996).19The data set comprises three phases: (1) coded data on 227 ethnic groups from 1945 to 1989, (2) qualitative description of the history and main characteristics of each ethnic group, and (3) coded data on 268 ethnic groups updated to 1995.20 My analysis is on the phase-three data set, which has several interesting new variables as well as an updated version of variables from the phase-one data. The other variables are at the country level, and I use them as measures of structural conditions in which ethnic groups are embedded. I merged them with the group-level variables by assigning each group values for the country in which it resides. Thus, the unit of analysis is the ethnic group. Countrylevel variables come from the World Tables of Economic and Social Indicators (World Bank, 1984), and the Yearbook of International Organizations (Union of International Associations, 1983). Tables I and II summarize the operationalization of the dependent and independent variables.
19The project used three criteria in the definition of an ethnic minority group. To be included in the Minorities at Risk data set, a communal group must (1) have a population larger than 100,000 or 1% of the country, (2) reside in countries with a population exceeding 1 million, and (3) be either (a) discriminated against, (b) disadvantaged from past discrimination, (c) advantaged but challenged, or (d) mobilized (Minorities at Risk Project, 1996). Underlying this definition of ethnic group is a certain level of cultural, historical, or ethnic distinctiveness. 20Some of the groups in the phase-one data were deleted and some new groups were added to the phase-three data.
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Global Civil Society and Ethnic Social Movements in the Contemporary World Table I. Operationalization of Dependent Variables Nonviolent Protest Index 01234None reported Verbal opposition Symbolic resistance Demonstration: participation < 10,000 Demonstration: participation > 10,000 0123456Violent Rebellion Index
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None reported Political banditry Campaigns of terrorism Local rebellion Small-scale guerrilla activity Intermediate to large-scale guerrilla activity Protracted civil war
Source: Minorities at Risk Project, 1996. Note. Values for "Nonviolent Protest 1990-94" and "Violent Rebellion 1990-94" are assigned (1) using the scale above and (2) based on the highest level of activity of protest/rebellion in the 5-year period.
Table II. Operationalization of Independent Variables Baseline model Population proportion-Proportion of population of the minority group to that of the country (Minorities at Risk Project, 1996) Modernization-Composed from (1) logged GDP per capita in 1980; (2) percentage literacy in 1980 = percentage of population (15 years of age and over) that is literate (able both to read and write); (3) urbanization in 1980 = percentage of population that lives in cities of 50,000 or more population (World Bank, 1984) Cultural distinctiveness-Sum of the indices of difference in language, custom, religion, and race (Minorities at Risk Project, 1996) Separatist tendency-Sum of the indices of regional concentration and loss of autonomy (Minorities at Risk Project, 1996) Increasing economic disadvantage-Change in the policy and practice of economic discrimination (2 = substantial worsening; 1 = slight worsening; 0 = no change; -1 = slight improvement; -2 = substantial improvement) (Minorities at Risk Project, 1996) Political disadvantage-Composite index of political disadvantage ((i) political discrimination: level of representation, public policy to restrict political participation, social practice of deliberate exclusion; and (ii) political restrictions: freedom of expression, free movement and place of residence, rights in judicial proceedings, political organization, voting, recruitment to police and military, access to civil service, attainment of high office) (Minorities at Risk Project, 1996) Organizational cohesion-Unity and cohesion of organization; loose coalition to one or a few dominant organizations (Minorities at Risk Project, 1996) Nonviolent Protest 1970-1974--Based on the same coding scheme as the dependent variable. Refer to Table I (Minorities at Risk Project, 1996) Violent Rebellion 1970-1974--Based on the same coding scheme as the dependent variable. Refer to Table I (Minorities at Risk Project, 1996) International linkages International governmental organization (IGO) membership, 1982 (Union of International Associations, 1983) International non-governmental organization (INGO) membership, 1982 (Union of International Associations, 1983) Note. Sources are in parentheses following items.
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Dependent Variables and violent rebellion. The former refers to ethnic mobilization that does
in a sources,thusminimizing potentialbiastowardmore mobilization Western countries.22 Given the scope of the data collection, one should not expect the data set to be perfect, but many scholarsconsider it to be reasonably good and use it in empiricalstudies on ethnic mobilization(Davis
and Moore, 1997; Fearon and Latin, 1997; Fox, 2000; Saideman and Ayers, 2000). Although analyses of all the periods would be ideal, a lack of covariates in the earlier periods precludes such analysis. In my analyses the dependent variables are the records of the 1990-94 period. Since the project coded the two types of mobilization separately, a group can be coded to have engaged in both types of mobilization, only one of them, or neither. Independent Variables
21Thatis, if a group engages in verbal opposition in 1990, which should be coded as 1, demonstration of less than 10,000 participants in 1991 (3), demonstration of more than 10,000 participants in 1992 (4), and no activity in 1993 and 1994 (0), the value of the nonviolent protest variable for that group for the 5-year period from 1990 to 1994 should be 4. 22They coded the data separately for each of the six regions: Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, Latin America and the Caribbean, North Africa and the Middle East, and Western Democracies and Japan. Specialists for each region oversaw the coding of information from scholarly and journalistic sources. Their efforts were so thorough as to make the principal investigator claim that "we think that virtually all major protest campaigns and rebellions by communal groups have been identified and taken into account in the coding" (Gurr, 1993a:375). 23I did a factor analysis on (1) logged GDP per capita in 1980, (2) percentage literacy in 1980, and (3) populations in cities of 50,000 or more people divided by 1000 in 1980. The eigenvalue was 2.44 with factor loadings of 0.810, 0.788, and 0.842 respectively. I did not use such variables as the level of civil liberties or a democracy scale because I included a variable that captures the openness of the national political arena for ethnic groups. Thus, adding a civil liberties variable to this model would generate a multicolinearity problem.
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As a measure of the size of an ethnic group I use the proportion of the group population to the country's national population in the 1990s.24By using the proportion rather than the actual size of population, I control for each country's population size. As a proxy for cultural distinctiveness, I use the sum of indices of cultural differences measured along four dimensions: language, custom, religion, and race. Each difference is quantified into an index in terms of how much an ethnic group differs from the dominant group in a country. A higher value indicates a higher level of distinctiveness. Two indices measure the separatist tendency of ethnic groups: regional concentration of a group and historical loss of autonomy. The underlying assumption is that a group has a strong separatist tendency if it is geographically concentrated in one region and if it has experienced political autonomy in its history. Both of these indices are for the 1990s. I use the sum of these two indices as a proxy. Economic disadvantage variables measure how much economic discrimination an ethnic group faces because of historical marginality and poverty, and how many public policies exist to improve the material wellbeing of that group. The Minorities at Risk project coded this information biannually in the 1990s. In evaluating the impact of economic disadvantages on social movements, relative deprivation is usually more important than the static differential between haves and have-nots. Ethnic groups tend to perceive more discrimination when their economic situation worsens or when a new public policy restricts their economic opportunity. Thus, I use a variable that captures changes in economic disadvantages in the early 1990s, which ranges from substantial worsening through no significant change to substantial improvement. To measure political disadvantages, I use indices that capture (1) political discrimination in terms of representation and participation in national politics, and (2) political restrictions on civil liberties. I did not use changes in political disadvantages, because very few changes took place in the observed period. I use the values of this variable in the 1990-91 period. Organizational cohesion refers to how united and cohesive a group is. For the measure, I use a group's position on a continuum ranging from a loose coalition of several different organizations to one or a few dominant organizations that attract allegiance from most members of the group. This variable is for the 1990-91 period.
24Here, I follow the operationalization of group size in prior studies including those that use Minorities at Risk data set (Fearon and Latin, 1997; Gurr 1993b; Yinger, 1986). Because the data set excludes small ethnic groups, the relative size provides a better measure of group's numerical strength vis-h-vis the state.
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To control for a group's propensity to mobilize in a violent or nonviolent manner, I use the level of mobilization of each group from 1970 to 1974. For nonviolent mobilization in the 1990s, I use the measure of nonviolent mobilization for the early 1970s, and for violent mobilization in the 1990s, I use violent mobilization in the early 1970s. I start with these nine variables in my statistical analyses. Relevant literature commonly treats them as causal variables, and their effects are relatively well documented. Causal relations are generally clear, as the observation of most of these variables precedes that of the dependent variables.25 Then I add international linkage variables to test the arguments about involvement in intergovernmental networks and connection to global civil society. I employ two commonly used measures, international governmental organization (IGO) membership and international nongovernmental organization (INGO) membership, to capture the effects of international linkage. Research in the world culture tradition often uses them to measure the institutional effect of global society on domestic activities (Boli and Thomas, 1999). Unlike most statistical analyses in this line of research, my analysis makes a distinction between the two linkage measures. IGO membership is a measure of country's involvement in intergovernmental networks, which is expected to suppress ethnic mobilization. INGO membership, on the other hand, is a measure of linkage to global civil society, which is hypothesized to increase ethnic social movements. Among the variables, modernization factor, IGO membership, and INGO membership are country-level variables, and all other variables are group-specific. Table III reports descriptive statistics of all the variables. Method A glance at the distribution of the two dependent variables suggests that a Tobit analysis is appropriate for them. For both variables, a large number of cases have values of 0, and others spread variably. In empirical terms, this means that many groups reportedly did not mobilize at all, and others mobilized with varying levels of intensity. Given the large number of zeroes, it might be reasonable to suspect some variation among them. For example, some groups may engage in a small-scale mobilization too minute to be
25Organizational cohesion is the only variable among them whose causal relationship with ethnic mobilization needs some caution. It might result from ethnic mobilization rather than the other way around, especially given that it is observed in the same period as the dependent variables (1990s). Only a longitudinal analysis can clarify the causal relationship, which is currently impossible with the Minorities at Risk data set. For the purpose of controlling for the effect of organizational strength, however, using it in the baseline model does not cause a serious problem.
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Table III. Descriptive Statistics for Dependent and Independent Variables Used in the Analysis Standard Valid Variables Minimum Maximum Mean deviation number Nonviolent protest in 1970-1974 Nonviolent protest in 1990-1994 Violent rebellion in 1970-1974 Violent rebellion in 1990-1994 Population proportion Modernization Cultural distinctiveness Separatist tendency Increasing economic disadvantage Political disadvantage Organizational cohesion IGO membership INGO membership 0 0 0 0 0.0007 -1.812 0 0 -2 0 0 7 15 4 4 6 6 0.8501 2.063 11 7 2 9 7 87 2132 1.48 2.31 0.68 1.54 0.12 0.00 5.90 3.26 -0.03 3.25 3.23 46.13 618.45 1.66 1.40 1.59 2.15 0.14 1.00 2.56 1.72 0.66 2.61 2.15 16.01 485.07 223 265 247 267 268 206 251 268 260 265 268 239 239
reported by news agencies and researchers. Yet we do not know anything about the level of mobilization among those cases with zero value. Thus, we should treat them as censored variables. For these types of dependent variables, a Tobit analysis is the most appropriate method because it can analyze the break between 0 and 1 as well as the variation among cases larger than 1 in one model (Long, 1997). Therefore, I use the Tobit analysis in this study.
RESULTS Tables IV and V report the results of Tobit analyses. For both dependent variables, I started with a baseline model (Model 1) that includes all the local factors, and then added the international linkage variables in Model 2. In all models the modernization variable shows a positive significant effect on nonviolent mobilization and a negative significant effect on violent mobilization. These results support the hypothesis that modernized countries encourage nonviolent movements and discourage violent ones. As noted above, this is not simply due to the repressive effect of the coercive power of modern states. It is also likely to reflect the cultural and institutional aspects of modern society that make nonviolent movements more cost-efficient. To test this point, I added a military-per-capita variable in Model 2 of both of the tables (results are not reported). If the sheer violent potential of modern states is the main reason for less violent mobilization in those countries, this variable will have a negative effect on violent mobilization. It was insignificant in both models, and the effect of the modernization factor did not change in either of the models.
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80 Table IV. Tobit Analysis of Nonviolent Ethnic Protest in 1990-1994 (N= 155) Model 1 Baseline model Population proportion Modernization Cultural distinctiveness Separatist tendency Increasing economic disadvantage Political disadvantage Organizational cohesion Nonviolent protest in 1970s International linkages IGO membership INGO membership Constant Chi-square Degrees of freedom 0.932 0.571** 0.075 0.143* 0.485** 0.138** 0.205** 0.205** Model 2 1.801 0.298t 0.088t 0.142* 0.432* 0.150** 0.221** 0.167* 0.010 0.001t -1.37* 73.7 10
Tsutsui
-0.256 65.3 8
Among the group characteristics, cultural distinctiveness does not have any significant effect. This result casts some doubt on the argument that cultural differences fuel ethnic political activities. The separatist tendency variable has a positive significant effect in all models, lending support to the hypothesis that the existence of separatist tendency increases the potential for ethnic mobilization. Both disadvantage variables have a positive significant effect on nonviolent mobilization but have no significant effect on violent mobilization. This suggests that grievances can push ethnic groups
Table V. Tobit Analysis of Violent Ethnic Rebellion in 1990-1994 (N = 176) Model 1 Baseline model Population proportion Modernization Cultural distinctiveness Separatist tendency Increasing economic disadvantage Political disadvantage Organizational cohesion Violent rebellion in 1970s International linkages IGO Membership INGO Membership Constant Chi-square Degrees of freedom *p < 0.05; **p < 0.01, (two-tailed tests). 1.12 -1.13** -0.023 0.444* -0.466 0.082 0.340* 0.505** Model 2 2.68 -1.89** 0.064 0.480* -0.566 0.108 0.349* 0.380* -0.023 0.003** -5.14** 58.1 10
-3.49** 48.3 8
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to mobilization, but grievances alone are not enough to provoke violence. The size of groups has a significant effect in only one model. This may be due to the Minorities at Risk project's cutting criterion, which excludes very small groups. Organizational cohesion has a positive significant effect in all models, supporting the argument that in modern societies an ethnic group with a tight organizational structure is more likely to mobilize.26 As expected, prior history of mobilization has a positive significant effect in all models. Among the international linkage variables, INGO membership shows a positive significant effect on both violent and nonviolent mobilization. This lends support to the hypothesis that linkages to global civil society increase ethnic mobilization. IGO membership, on the other hand, has no significant effect. Although the effect is negative in one of the models, the results do not indicate strong support for the hypothesis that intergovernmental networks suppress ethnic mobilization. Nevertheless, the different effects of international governmental and nongovernmental memberships provide support for the argument that the two international actors exert different effects on ethnic politics. The results also suggest that human rights ideas are a key factor in the rise of ethnic social movements; it is not global integration in general, but linkage to global civil society, the primary locus of human rights activities, that increases ethnic mobilizations. It is also important to note that adding international linkage variables reduces the significance of the coefficient for modernization in Table IV. This shows that the analysis uncovers the importance of international dimensions of nonviolent ethnic mobilization that has been overlooked in the past research. Moreover, INGO memberships have a positive significant effect on violent mobilization, while the modernization variable has a negative significant effect on it. This also suggests that international linkages have an impact on ethnic mobilization that is distinct from the effects of modernization. To summarize, nonviolent ethnic mobilization is likely to occur when a group has a strong separatist tendency, economic and political disadvantages, a larger size, organizational cohesion, a prior history of mobilization, and when the country it resides in is more modernized and has more INGO memberships. With regard to violent movements, modernization has a negative significant effect, while separatist tendency, organizational cohesion, prior history of violent mobilization, and INGO memberships have positive significant effects. Thus, the analyses showed (1) that international factors matter in contemporary ethnic social movements controlling for domestic factors and (2) that linkage to global civil society raises the potential
26But the caution about causal relationships noted in footnote 24 should be born in mind.
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for ethnic social movements, while intergovernmental networks do not have a strong impact on ethnic mobilization.
CONCLUSION
This study proposed a theoretical framework for understanding the global processes of contemporary ethnic mobilizations. The framework builds on two lines of theory that have not had much exchange with each other: the world culture approach and social movement theories. The former provides theoretical tools to explore how global human rights models change the opportunity structures for ethnic groups through linkage to global civil society, while the latter explains how the new social environment raises the potential for ethnic mobilization. The main hypothesis drawn from the theoretical discussion-linkages to global civil society increase ethnic mobilization but involvement in intergovernmental networks decreases ethnic social movements-was tested in the statistical analyses. The first key finding of the analyses is that linkage to global civil society has a significant effect after controlling for national- and group-level factors. This shows that global-level processes, which have largely been overlooked in the literature, influence ethnic mobilization in the contemporary world. Given that nongovernmental linkages increase ethnic mobilization and that a growing number of countries are integrated into global civil society, in which human rights have become increasingly important, the increase in ethnic mobilizations in the last few decades may be attributed to the global diffusion of human rights. With more comprehensive longitudinal data and more careful examination of the processes through which nongovernmental linkages influence ethnic politics, the validity of this larger argument could be tested. Second, linkage to intergovernmental networks does not have a significant effect, whereas nongovernmental ties do increase ethnic mobilization. This indicates that international governmental and nongovernmental linkages have different effects on local politics, lending support to the argument proposed by some world culture scholars. This finding also provides further support for the impact of global human rights. If other elements of global integration were relevant, both IGO and INGO linkages would have a significant effect. Instead, I found that only ties to global civil society, where concerns and activities for human rights are more intense than in the intergovernmental world, have a positive significant effect. These arguments about global factors are not intended to undermine the importance of local factors. Ethnic grievances and deep-seated ethnic hatred play a role, perhaps a much bigger role than global factors in the minds of those most directly involved. However, exclusive focus on such elements has failed to uncover an important global process: the effect of global human
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importanceof examininginternationaldimensionsof ethnic mobilization. the Theoretically, currentstudy underscoresthe benefit of a dialogue between social movement theories and the world culture approach.Social movementtheories benefit from the theoreticaltools of the world culture as Meanapproach, theyexpandtheirscope of analysisto globaldimensions. diwhile,the worldcultureapproachaddressessome of the main criticisms rected to it by specifyingthe mechanismsby whichglobal models produce
tangible local outcomes. Future research should explore these implications of this study and further examine the global dimensions of ethnic social movements. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am indebted to John W. Meyer for his thorough and insightful com-
ments throughoutthe developmentof this paper. Douglas McAdam and Mark Granovetteralso providedvery helpful comments.This study also benefitedfrom excellent commentsby Emilio J. Castilla,LynnEden, Kyra
Greene, Ann Hironaka, Hokyu Hwang, Yong Suk Jang, Hyojoung Kim, Susan Olzak, Francisco Ramirez, Sidney Tarrow, Morris Zelditch, and the members of the comparative workshop at Stanford University. I acknowledge the generous support provided by National Science Foundation (#SES University (Principal Investigators: Francisco Ramirez and John Meyer),
Studies,Stanford 0214168),the Bechtel Initiative,Institutefor International and JapanSociety for the Promotionof Science.
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