Using artificial neural networks

for heat and electric load

forecasting
Dejan Paravan
Energy Policy Lab
University of Ljubljana

”Cogeneration
”Cogeneration Operation in Competitive Markets”
Markets”
St. Veit, 22.-23.01.2003

Outline
1. Introduction
2. Short-term load forecasting
3. Short-term heat demand forecasting
4. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)
5. Practical results
6. Conclusions

1
Forecasting in power systems
(load and heat demand)
• Long term (e.g. 1 - 20 years): power system
planning
• Medium term (e.g. 3-8 weeks): maintenance
planning, scheduling of the fuel supply
• Short term (e.g. 1h – 1week): unit commitment,
hydro scheduling, power system security
assessment, trading on the spot market

Electricity consumption and heat demand

1 8 0 0

1 6 0 0

1 4 0 0
P [MW]

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

6 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 9 0 0 0
T [ h ]
5 0 0

4 5 0

4 0 0

3 5 0

3 0 0
P [MW]

2 5 0

2 0 0

1 5 0

1 0 0

5 0

0
0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 9 0 0 0
T [ h ]

2
Load vs. Heat forecasting
• Similar behaviour and variable
dependency (weather, time...)
• Heat demand has higher dependency on
temperature data
• Load forecasting is well researched and
reported
• Load forecasting models can be applied
with minor modifications for heat
modelling

Input data and system

parameters

• Economical or environmental (seasonal

changes)
• Time
• Weather
• Special events (e.g. holidays)
• Unforeseeable random effects

3
Artificial Neural Networks
COMPUTATIONAL
INTELLIGENCE
or
SOFT COMPUTING

Neural Evolutionary Fuzzy

Networks Computation Systems

Feed-Forward Radial-based Recurrent

ANN ANN ANN

Artificial Neural Networks

• Neuron as a basic unit.
• “Black box” model - no particular knowledge on the physical
properties of the system itself is required.

Input Output
variables ... ANN ... variables

• Training on historical data.

• Identification of complex and non-linear relationships.
• Generalisation.

4
Artificial Neural Networks

p Σ f a

...

Output
...
Inputs
W

...
...
b

...

Multy-layer perceptron

ANN model
Actual Load of Day k
24 Inputs
R
Actual Weather
Parameters of Day k + L
Forecast Weather
24 Inputs
CLF 24 Outputs
S Final Day
Forecast
Parameters of Day k+1
24 Inputs For Day k+1
Day Type of Day k+1 C
7 Inputs O
M
B
Actual Load of Day k I
24 Inputs
N
Actual Weather 24 Outputs
Parameters of Day k E
Forecast Weather
24 Inputs
BLF R
Parameters of Day k+1
24 Inputs
Day Type of Day k+1
7 Inputs

5
Model verification: Actual and
forecasted data
L
Actual data MAPE
Mean
Error Average
Forecasted data
Percentage
Error
T
3 years of hourly data are recommended:
¾2.5 years are used in training process
¾6 months of data for verification phase

Naïve forecast as a reference

case
• What is naïve forecast?
Assuming the forecast value is exactly the
same as the presently observed value.
L

Error

0 T

6
Error of the naïve forecast for a
test case
• Period: more than 3 years of data
• Same as previous day / week
• MAPE error results
Reg1 Reg2 Reg3 Reg4

Day 7.14% 10.32% 5.77% 3.39%

Week 4.03% 4.84% 3.57% 2.48%

Naïve forecast vs. ANN forecast

1 year of data - test set

Region Naive ANN Improvement
Reg1 3.93% 1.57% -60%
Reg2 4.76% 1.82% -62%
Reg3 3.12% 1.65% -47%
Reg4 2.35% 1.49% -37%

7
Heat demand – TETOL case
Heat demand in Ljubljana (2001)
450

400

350

300
Heat demand [MW]

250

200

150

100

50

0
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Temperature [st.C]

Forecasting TETOL heat demand

• Training set: January 1997- February 2001
• Test sets:
1. May 2001 – September 2001
2. October 2001 – April 2002
MAPE Error - ANN
May 2001 - September 2001 October 2001 - April 2002
All hours 16.91% 8.17%
Daily Total 11.85% 4.33%
Daily Peak 18.28% 7.26%

MAPE Error - naive forecasts

Day 9.0% 14.9%
Week 21.4% 28.7%

8
Winter season

Winter season

9
Summer season
MW
MW

Conclusions
• ANN models for load demand forecasting
can be extended to heat demand
forecasting
• The error is larger (higher temperature
dependency, smaller scale)
• For Heat-demand two separate models are
suggested (heating, no-heating season)

10