SYSTEMS DYNAMICS SIMULATION IN WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT - LOVA RESERVOIR CASE STUDY

Vladimir NIKOLIC
ABSTRACT: Selova reservoir was formed by damming the Toplica River. The dam is located 18 km upstream of Kursumlija municipality, South Serbia. The reservoir was designed as a multifunctional water resource management object with the principal idea of spatial and temporal distribution of flow, while, in the same time, balancing and capturing the full potential of the flow. Therefore, the accumulation mitigates potential detrimental effects of flood waves, and increases the flow during the dry seasons. Finally, Selova reservoir is designed as a structural measure to provide water supplying for six municipalities: Nis, Prokuplje, Kursumlija, Blace, Zitoradja, Merosina. In order to illustrate a tool which facilitates integrated system approach to water resources management process, by consolidating physical elements and socio-economic environment, this paper presents an application of operational Selova reservoir model developed using system dynamics VENSIM software package. Key words: SDS, Simulation, Water Management, IWRM, Vensim

DINAMIKA SIMULACIJA U UPRAVLJANJU VODNIM RESURSIMA STUDIJA SLUAJA AKUMULACIJA SELOVA

Vladimir NIKOLIC
APSTRAKT:

1. INTRODUCTION
Rapid development of human society in technological and scientific sense, during 20th and at the beginning of 21st century, has been mainly based on the perception of infinite natural resources and indestructible environment. While having the motive to improve life conditions for human kind, it has produced numerous scars on Earths ecosystem. Economical and social development have emerged or accelerated numerous environmental processes that critically affect the human kind well being and further existence. Consequently, one of the top priority questions which directly affects human life and living environment, and therefore defines the future human kind survival on this planet, is a matter of potable water and its availability. In addition to physical and biochemical destruction of the environment, human population notes constant growth, having an increased water demand as a logical consequence. According to Real Time Statistics Program, the current world population is estimated on slightly more than 6.9 billions of habitants, which is significant increase compared to 1.6 Billion in 1900. It is likely to expect that human population will exceed the number of 7 billion inhabitants in period of next couple of years. On the other hand, in spite of rapid technological and scientific development, more than one sixth of Earths population still has no appropriate access to water of acceptable quality, meaning that the human society has not succeeded to ensure reliable resource of clean water for more than 1.4 billion people (water.org). The statistics are more than alarming: four people across the world die from a water-related disease each minute! Along with persistently increasing water demand, one additional process significantly pressures the availability of potable water natural and human induced climate change. The results of this process are change of magnitude and frequency of extreme climate and hydrological events, such as floods and droughts, which, naturally, have great implications on water resources management. Having a continuous growth of water demand on one side and, limited and greatly endangered water resources on the other, the paradigm of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) has been proposed for facing this more than complex challenge, suggesting the systematic approach in integration of multiple functions and purposes for each water resource. UNESCO defines integrated water resources management as a step-by-step process of managing water resources in harmonious and environmentally sustainable way by gradually uniting stakeholders and involving them in planning and decision making, while accounting for evolving social demands (UNESCO, 2010). More than a few guiding principles for successful integrated water resources management can be derived from the previous and current experience. Among the others, a few of them are especially important in the context of approach discussed in this report. First, the necessity of taking more comprehensive, wider perspective of problem analysis - systems view. Second, more than often, responsibilities of water management practice are fragmented on different levels (local, provincial, national, etc.), which requires both vertical (government levels) and horizontal (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.) integration. Lastly, a participation of all potential stakeholders supports the successful decision making. Having that in mind, integrated water resources management can be also defined as a systematic process of systematic development, allocation and monitoring of water resources in the context of social, economic and environmental objectives (waterwiki.net).

This paper will analyze in details one of the numerous existing methodologies and tools for operational support of integrated water resources management. The theoretical background of the specific approach will be detailed, and the major advantages will be pointed out. Discussed systems approach methodology expands the scope of the problem, from purely physical, to integrated physical and socio-economic. Methodology is demonstrated through the simulation model development of the multi-functional reservoir operation. The reservoir is designed during 1980s of the last century, according to the regulations legitimate in that time. Since the project still has not been completed, while the environmental and socio-economic context has been changed significantly, this paper will examine the ability of reservoir to accommodate changes and successfully accomplish the trusted goals.

2. PROBLEM FORMULATION
In order to illustrate a tool which facilitates integrated system approach in water resources management process, by consolidating physical elements and socio-economic environment, this paper will examine the operational Selova reservoir model, Serbia, while developing the system dynamics model in VENSIM software package. Basic concepts and rationale of system dynamics approach will be detailed in following chapter.

Figure 1. River Toplica Catchment and Selova Reservoir (Googlemaps) During 1980s, the construction of dam and reservoir was seen as a reasonable solution for emerging water related problems in South-East Serbia. Selova reservoir was planned to be formed by damming the Toplica River. The dam is located 18km upstream of Kursumlija municipality, South Serbia. Toplica River is one of the most important Juzna Moravas tributaries, Black Sea Basin, and its basin covers 2217 km2. Selova reservoir controls the area of 349 km2, or 16% of total river Toplica catchment area. Based on 45 years of monitoring, the average flow at the cross section preceding the reservoir is 3.7m3/s. The Selova Dam is designed as earth-fill embankment. The length of the dam crest is 429.50 m, while the crest width is 8.00m. The crest elevation is 527.00

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meters above sea level, whereas the elevation of heel of the dam is 457.00 meters above sea level. The reservoir total volume is 70 million m3. Dead space capacity is 7.0 Million m3, the active capacity is estimated on 46.0 million m3, while the designed flood protection capacity is 17.2 million m3 (for Q2% = 29 m3/s). Maximum water intake capacity for water supplying is 2.70m3/s.

Figure 2. Selova dam, downstream view (http://www.gradnis.net/forum/) Planned as a multifunctional water resource management object, the most significant task for Selova reservoir is spatial and temporal distribution of flow, while, in the same time, the reservoir should balance and capture the full natural potential of the flow. Therefore, the accumulation mitigates possible detrimental effects of flood waves, and increases the flow during the dry seasons. In conclusion, Selova reservoir is designed as a structural measure to provide: Domestic water supplying for six municipalities Nis, Prokuplje, Kursumlija, Blace, Zitoradja, Merosina (Figure 1); Downstream flood protection; In-stream flow required for maintaining the life downstream from the dam; Industry water demand; Agriculture water demand; Sediment deposition capacities; Fishing; Tourism; And, hydropower production.

3. SYSTEM DYNAMIC SIMULATION MODEL

Selova reservoir is a multifunctional water management structure, but the key function is to secure the reliable source of water required for the domestic, industrial and agricultural use. Water supplying systems of six counties are vastly dependent on the water resource provided by this reservoir. Assumption is that the reservoir will be exposed to considerable pressure to adequately response the assumed context change due to projected demographic and economic growth: Inflow to the reservoir; Reservoir volume; Specific consumption per capita; Domestic demand seasonal variation coefficient; Initial

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population; population growth prediction; Industry water demand; land dedicated to agriculture; Seasonal agricultural demand variation coefficient; in stream flow biological minimum; spillway control, and, spillway discharge. For the purpose of the model design and further problem analysis, following information has been collected: Inflow [m3/s]; Maximal probable flow [m3/s]; Total reservoir storage capacity [m3]; Active storage for water supplying and in-stream flow [m3]; Available storage for flood protection [m3]; Dead storage [m3]; Water demands for industry, agriculture, and domestic use [m3/s]; Demographic growth projections; Reservoir operation regulations; Water Level Water Volume dependency.

Figure 3. Selova dam Since the reservoir still has not been fully constructed and operated, the preliminary structural and operational performances havent been verified. Therefore, the development of reservoir simulation model will help us asses the capacity of reservoir to successfully meet expected functions. Basically, the model tests the balance of the reservoir volume regarding the change in water demand. Process of variable identification involves definition of quantities fundamentally important for model correctness. Since we have a rather simple differential equation to solve, we have to define all system inputs and outputs, while calculating the reservoir volume - Stock. System input is just simple time series of flow [m3/month] for years 1981 to 1985, while system output is defined as a sum of different water demands, as presented in Figure 4.

Figure 4. Model key variables

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Municipality 1

Pop. demand Industry Pop. demand Industry Pop. demand Industry Pop. demand Industry Pop. demand Industry Pop. demand Industry

Agrct r
Agr i Agrct cu l r ture Agr i Agrct cu l r ture

Spillway

Municipality 2

Inflow

Reservoir volume

Outflow

Municipality 3

In-stream flow

Municipality 4

Agrct cu l r ture
Agr i Agrct cu l r ture

Agr i

Municipality 5

Municipality 5

Agrct cu l r ture

Agr i

Figure 5. Schematic diagram of Selova reservoir water balance

Causal diagram (Figure 5) is converted into mathematical form using VENSIM Software package. Figure 6 shows the central water balance setup for Selova reservoir, while Figure 7 describes a typical water demand for one of the six municipalities. This form is repeated for each of six municipalities.

Figure 6. VENSIM Model Reservoir Water Balance Sector

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Time dependant, Montlhy, K= 0.7 - 2

<Time>

(Initial Value/Month)* Death Rate

(m3/month) Auxiliary Water Demand For 3 Municipality (month/m3)

Domestic + + Demand 3

Seasonal Water Supplying Coefficient 3

Specific Consumption * Population (m3/month)

+ Deaths 3 Population 3 Births 3 +

Death Rate 3
(Coeff.)

+ + +

(m3/month) Aux.

Water Demand Municipality 3

Industry Demand 3

(Coeff.)

Birth Rate 3

Agriculture Demand 3

(m3/month) Aux.

(Initial Value/Month)* Birth Rate

Agricultural Specific Demand 3

(m3/ha/month)

Agricultural Land 3

Agricultural Land 3

<Time>

Agricultural Land (ha)*Specific Demand (m3/ha/month) - (m3/month) Agr. Lande (ha) depending on local policies

|*| Municipality 3: Merosina |*|

Figure 7. VENSIM Model - Municipal Water Demand Sector Mathematically, the elementary process is described by following differential equation:

Where: S [m3] reservoir storage, Inflow, Outflow [m3/s], So [m3] initial volume of the reservoir Inflow to the system (reservoir) is a five years monthly hydrograph [m3/month] in period 1981-1985. This set is representative in hydrological sense for the whole period of observations 1945 1991. Reservoir outflow is defined as a sum of water quantities for in-stream flow demand [m3/month], water demand for six municipalities (Nis, Prokuplje, Kursumlija, Blace, Zitoradja, Merosina) [m3/month], and discharge through the spillway if the water volume in the reservoir reaches 70 million m3: Reservoir Outflow = Biological Minimum + Spillway Flow + "Water Demand - Municipality 1" + "Water Demand Municipality 2" + "Water Demand - Municipality 3" + "Water Demand - Municipality 4" + "Water Demand - Municipality 5" + "Water Demand - Municipality 6"

[m3/ month]

The sum of domestic, industrial and agricultural requirements defines water demand for each municipality: "Water Demand - Municipality X" = Agriculture Demand X + Domestic Demand X + Industry Demand X [m3/ month]

Domestic water demand is a function of current population, specific water consumption coefficient and seasonal variation coefficient:
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Domestic Demand X = Population X * Seasonal Water Supplying Coefficient X* Specific Water Need X

[m3/ month]

Population in a municipality depends on its initial value and augmentation coefficient derived from the historical data: Population X = Births X -Deaths X Where: Births X = Population X * Birth Rate X And: Deaths X = Population X * Death Rate X [Inhabitants] [Inhabitants] [Inhabitants]

On the other hand, Seasonal Water Supplying Coefficient X [dimensionless] is a time dependent variable which depends on the season. Specific Water Demand is defined by authorities and local governing acts, and it strongly depends on the current state of the water supplying network. In our case, due to deteriorated networks over long period of time, Specific Water Demand parameter takes values in range between 350 [l/capita/day] , and 390 [l/capita/day]. Simple multiplication leads us to the total 10.675 [m3/capita/month] or 11.285 [m3/capita/month]. The Industrial water demand [m3/month] is obtained through the available statistical analysis of the region. Agricultural water demand is calculated by multiplying Agricultural land [ha] and Agricultural Specific Demand [m3/ha/month], and it fully depends on the time of the year: Agriculture Demand X [m3/month] = Agricultural Land X [ha] * Agricultural Specific Demand X [m3/month/ha]

Agricultural land X [ha] is total area dedicated to agricultural use, whereas Agricultural Specific Demand X [dimensionless] is a coefficient that depends on the season. A number of operational rules are applied in reservoir management process. If total volume of water stored in the reservoir becomes lower than 7.3 million cubic meters, which presents the reservoir dead storage capacity, then the total water demand cannot be distributed, and delivered amount of water becomes equal to zero. If water volume in reservoir exceeds 53.3 million cubic meters, then the full capacity of conduit is exploited to discharge additional amount of 5m3/s. The spillway is utilized to discharge additional 15m3/s in case that reservoir volume increases above 70.5 million of m3.

4. THE MAIN OBJECTIVES OF THE MODEL SIMULATION

Recent analysis of social and economic tendencies discovers a significant increase of water demand for the industry, domestic water supplying and agriculture, in period 1991 2020. According to the current design of water supplying systems Selova reservoir must

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be able to sustain considerable pressures within multiple constraints. Due to favorable economical environment and incitement government subsidies, manifold international companies have announced their plans to open new factories in the economic domains that have not been yet shaped within this region. Consequently, significant migrations from neighboring regions are expected. This model is planned to investigate if current available water resource is ready to meet increased demand, and if designed operational rules for reservoir management can still be applied in the case of greater industrial and agricultural activities. The effects of newly shaped demographic and economical context on reservoir operation will be assessed through six scenarios: i. System performance (reservoir water balance) under initial conditions, year 1991 (table 1); ii. Capacity of the reservoir to meet demand regarding tendency of statistical demographic growth in period 1991 and 2020 (table 1); iii. Examine further deterioration of the local water supplying network in period 1991-2020 (table 1); iv. Inspect effects of eventual renewal of the water supplying network (table 1); v. Agriculture reforms introducing land use change (table 1); vi. Check industry demand increase effects on water balance (table 1); Table 1 presents specific values for each of the proposed scenarios. Table 1. Scenario Values
No . Municipality Specific Demand (l/cap/day) 1991 Nis Prokuplje Merosina Kursumlija Blace Zitoradja 390 390 350 370 370 370 2020 iii 300 300 250 250 250 250 2020 iv 410 410 390 390 390 390 Inhabitants 1991 23545 2 45164 16610 13909 13903 18496 2020 34937 0 59280 14700 28721 14460 15853 Sum: Agriculture (ha) 1991 0 950 450 500 350 550 2800 2020 0 1300 500 650 400 650 3500 Industry (l/s) 1991 479 64 2 30 22 8 2020 800 123 6 69 44 12 Birth Rate 0.015 2 0.015 2 0.015 2 0.015 2 0.015 2 0.015 2 Death Rate 0.010 2 0.010 2 0.010 2 0.010 2 0.010 2 0.010 2

1 2 3 4 5 6

The question that remains unanswered concerns the model reliability. There are several methods for model validation: Behavior Replication Test Behavior Sensitivity Test Behavior Prediction Test Each test confirms that the model response actually is equal to the observed system responses, and if adequately validated, the model can be used for further system analysis. However, in this case, since the reservoir still has not been in operation, and no data

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describing its performance is available, we cannot confidently verify the model performance.

5. ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS

i. System performance (reservoir water balance) under initial conditions, year 1991; 1991

Figure 8. System performance under different calculation time steps (t = 1.0, 0.5, 0.125) Scenario 1 examines expected system behavior (reservoir water volume) under magnitudes used for the design of the reservoir structural measures and operational rules. The result shows expected water volume variation within the active storage capacity. In particular time steps, the reservoir volume exceeds the flood storage capacity; for this reason, the exploitation of full in-stream conduit capacity and discharge through the spillway is required. After reducing the time step, from t = 1, to t = 0.5, and t = 0.125, the graph presents an obvious improvement in accuracy for smaller time steps by smoothing the resulting graph. This is directly related to the applied numerical method used for solving the underlying differential equation. The noise observed on the resulting graphs can be justified by regulations of reservoir management and increased discharge throughout the conduit if the water level rises above the flooding storage elevation.
ii. Capacity of the reservoir to meet demand regarding tendency of statistical demographic growth in period 1991 and 2020;

Statistical analysis of demographic tendencies in the reservoir designing period presented possible and significant population increase in the next 30 years. Scenario 2 compares the reservoir water balance for current (1991) and predicted population (2020). Resulting diagram shows that increased number of residents will increase the number of days when water delivery is not possible due to lower water levels in the reservoir, Figure 9.

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Figure 9. System performance under demographic growth consideration

iii. Examine further deterioration of the local water supplying network in period 1991-2020;

Figure 10. System performance after WSN deterioration Extremely high specific demand coefficients have been taken into account for designing the domestic water demand, ranging from 350 390 [l/inhabitants/day], due to devastated water distribution network. The network condition causes the enormous waste of water and results in high water domestic demand rates. Currently there are no presented plans for distribution network renewal, which can cause further deterioration of the network and naturally create additional increase in water demand. According to the table 1, Scenario 3 explores the reservoir water balance in case of increased water demand, Figure 10. The results show expected increase in number of days when the water distribution from the reservoir is stopped.
iv. Inspect effects of the water supplying network revitalization;

In contrast to Scenario 3, Scenario 4 explores the effects of eventual distribution network renewal, which consequently affects domestic water demand rates, Table 1. Figure 11 presents not drastic, but yet significant water savings, by lowering the number of days when actual water distribution from the reservoir is possible.

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Figure 11. System performance after WSN deterioration

v. Effects of agricultural reforms introducing land use change;

Figure 12. System performance after conducted agricultural restructuring Additional water demand pressure is a result of change in the total area of each region which is dedicated to agriculture, Table 1. Scenario 5 investigates the reservoir water volume behavior under applied agricultural water demand modification. The resulting graph shows steeper reservoir emptying curve, and increased number of days when the water level is actually below the dead space elevation.
vi. Assess effects of industry demand increase on water balance;

Further industrial development of the region is expected in following years. Scenario 6 gives us an answer on proposed question whether the reservoir would be capable of meeting the additional demand of increased industrial water demand, Table 1. Figure 12 presents the results of the simulation and suggests supplementary number of days when the actual water level in the reservoir is below the desired level.

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Figure 11. System performance after introducing the increased industry demand It is assumed that observed water stress, defined as a negative difference between available quantities of water and water demand, can be avoided if the input information to the model is more detailed and precise, such as detailed operational plans.

5. CONCLUSION
This paper presents an analysis of multiple scenarios, dynamic processes of reservoir filling and emptying, depending on the river Toplica discharge, the conservation of biological requirements of the river, while, at the same time, attempting to meet the needs of downstream users, such the city of Nis and agriculture in the valley.

Implementation of all six scenarios has explored the behavior of the most important systems element reservoir volume. Starting with year 1991, and water demand characteristic for that period, based on population, agricultural and industrial conditions, through the implementation of reasonable system evolution scenarios, model ends up with conditions that are expected in year 2020, by statistical and legislation analysis. As mentioned in previous chapters, simulation has been done for 5 years time period, in monthly steps, for instance inflow to the reservoir is described in units m3/month. This fact obviously brings a certain level of deviation from the real world operational scenarios. Consequently, the Selova Reservoir simulation model can be further enhanced by introducing the shorter time steps, such as m3/s or m3/h, which would enable more detailed definition of managerial operations and would significantly improve the precision of the calculation. Additional hydrological, social and environmental parameters should be further included in water balance equation. This model did not include obvious water losses, such as evapotranspiration or infiltration. On the other hand, demographic variation has not included important factors like migrations, or economic conditions. More detailed operational rules, possibly provided by an experts, are also suggested for the further model enhancement. In fact, this is one of the main ideas and advantages of system dynamics simulation models comprehensive involvement of all concerned parties in the model development process.

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6. REFERENCES
(1) M. Forester et al. (1996), Road Map: A Guide to Learning System Dynamics, MIT (2) S. P. Simonovic (2007), Managing water resources methods and tools for a System Approach, UNESCO (3) VENTANA Systems (2003), Vensim 5 Reference Manual, Ventana Systems Inc. , Belmont,
MA

(4) VENTANA Systems (1995), Vensim 5 Users Guide, Ventana Systems Inc. , Belmont, MA (5) UNESCO (2010), IWRM Guidelines: Principles
(6) www.waterwiki.net, Integrated Water Resources Management (accessed April, 2011) (7) www.water.org, Water Statistics (accessed April, 2011) (8) Energoprojekt Beograd, Maj 1986. g: Idejno reenje, Prethodni izvetaj: Analiza potreba u vodi, Dokumentacija u okviru formiranja Vodoprivrednog sistem za snabdevanje

podruja Toplice i Nia Selova

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