Steel Industry Update/281

December 2012

Locker Associates, 225 Broadway, Suite 2625 New York NY 10007

Tel: 212-962-2980

Table 1: Selected U.S. Steel Industry Data, October & Year-to-Date, 2012
(000 net tons)

Raw Steel Production ...............

Month of October
2012
2011
% Chg
7,493
7,888
-5.0%

2012
82,393

Year-to-Date
2011
79,235

% Chg
4.0%

Capacity Utilization .................

68.0

71.9

--

76.1

74.5

--

Mill Shipments ..........................

7,430

7,934

-6.4%

81,068

76,375

6.1%

Exports .....................................

1,186

1,151

3.0%

11,778

11,023

6.8%

Total Imports.............................

2,606

2,340

11.4%

28,292

24,331

16.3%

Finished Steel Imports ............

2,124

1,898

11.9%

22,004

18,607

18.3%

Apparent Steel Supply* .............

8,369

8,681

-3.6%

91,295

83,959

8.7%

Imports as % of Supply*..........

25.4

21.9

--

24.1

22.2

--

Sources: AISI, 12/20/12

*Excl semi-finished imports

Table 2: U.S. Spot Prices for Selected Products, December & Year-to-Date, 2012

Hot Rolled Band....

Cold Rolled Coil........
Coiled Plate..................

Month of December
2012
2011
% Chg
639
686
-6.9%
742
788
-5.8%
733
905
-19.0%

2012
660
760
842

Average Spot Price....

$705

$793

-11.1%

$754

$867

OCTG*

1,891

2,023

-6.5%

1,968

1,920

2.5%

#1 Heavy Melt...
Shredded Scrap...
#1 Busheling.

344
381
376

398
434
475

-13.6%
-12.2%
-20.8%

359
398
408

399
437
473

-10.1%
-9.0%
-13.8%

Iron Ore ($/dmtu)...

Pig Iron ($/tonne)...

120
420

136
502

-11.8%
-16.3%

128
457

171
497

-24.7%
-8.1%

($ per net ton)

Year-to-Date
2011
755
853
994

% Chg
-12.6%
-10.9%
-15.2%
-13.1%

Sources: World Steel Dynamics, Spears Research; SteelontheNet.com; IndexMundi.com; *OCTG and
iron ore data is November, 2012; pig iron data is October, 2012, $/dmtu: US$/dry metric tonne unit

Email: lockerassociates@yahoo.com | Website: www.lockerassociates.com

Steel Industry Update/281

Table 3: World Crude Steel Production, November & Year-to-Date, 2012
Month of November
Year-to-Date
(000 metric tons)
2012
2011
% Chg
2012
2011
Region

% Chg

European Union.
Other Europe.

13,510
3,121

14,259
3,093

-5.3%
0.9%

157,345
34,830

165,356
33,839

-4.8%
2.9%

C.I.S.

8,919

9,144

-2.5%

102,391

103,116

-0.7%

North America

9,423

9,516

-1.0%

111,693

108,699

2.8%

South America...

3,848

3,864

-0.4%

43,315

44,641

-3.0%

Africa/Middle East.....

2,842

2,679

6.1%

31,320

30,831

1.6%

Asia..

79,545

72,823

9.2%

911,099

891,338

2.2%

Oceania......

473

434

9.0%

5,354

6,824

-21.5%

Total

121,681

115,813

5.1% 1,397,348 1,384,643

0.9%

57,471
8,498

50,560
8,697

13.7%
-2.3%

660,125
98,658

641,358
99,198

2.9%
-0.5%
3.2%

Country
China.......
Japan...
United States..

6,696

7,032

-4.8%

81,442

78,913

India(e).

6,400

6,003

6.6%

70,115

67,294

4.2%

South Korea

5,626

5,783

-2.7%

63,497

62,506

1.6%

Russia.........

5,528

5,567

-0.7%

64,763

62,857

3.0%

Germany...

3,446

3,451

-0.2%

39,577

41,262

-4.1%

Turkey..

2,984

2,853

4.6%

33,021

30,995

6.5%

Brazil....

2,844

2,777

2.4%

32,075

32,546

-1.4%

Ukraine(e)...

2,691

2,923

-7.9%

30,330

32,528

-6.8%

All Others....

19,497

20,167

-3.3%

223,745

235,186

-4.9%

Source: World Steel Association, 12/12; e=estimate

Graph 1: World Crude Steel Production, October 2012

Source: World Steel Association, 12/12; in million metric tons

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Steel Industry Update/281

Graph 2: World Steel Capacity Utilization, October 2012

Source: World Steel Association, 12/12

Table 4: US Exports of Steel Mill Products, October 2012

Product
Heavy structural shapes

Oct12
102,635

Sep12
66,518

% Chg
54.3%

Oct11
102,926

% Chg
-0.3%

HD galvanized sheet/strip

102,251

89,056

14.8%

92,858

10.1%

Cut-to-length plate

94,830

99,364

-4.6%

89,154

6.4%

Hot-rolled sheet

64,774

67,798

-4.5%

46,791

38.4%

Cold-rolled sheet

61,771

57,849

6.8%

56,116

10.1%

Line pipe

39,765

28,494

39.6%

16,767

137.2%

Plate in coils

44,746

53,351

-16.1%

51,189

-12.6%

Blooms, billets and slabs

42,563

40,267

5.7%

32,269

31.9%

Oil country goods

27,480

28,555

-3.8%

34,107

-19.4%

Total

1,075,753

959,621

12.1%

1,044,294

3.0%

Carbon and alloy

1,024,203

904,512

13.2%

998,562

2.6%

51,550

55,109

-6.5%

45,732

12.7%

Stainless

Source: American Metal Market 12/18/12 in tonnes

Steel Industry Update (ISSN 1063-4339) published 12 times/year by Locker Associates, Inc. Copyright 2012 by Locker Associates, Inc. All
rights reserved. Reproduction in any form forbidden w/o permission. Locker Associates, Inc., 225 Broadway Suite 2625 New York NY 10007.

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Steel Industry Update/281

Table 5: US Exports of Ferrous Scrap by Destination, October 2012

Country
Canada

Oct12
70

Sep12
94

Aug12
115

2012
1,020

2011
1,268

% Chg
-19.6%

China

91

90

87

1,629

3,565

-65.5%

Egypt

37

372

752

-50.6%

Hong Kong

80

54

92

-41.7%

India

93

67

164

1,063

991

7.3%

Japan

42

229

-81.7%

Malaysia

29

143

624

858

-27.3%

83

52

70

614

446

44.3%

South Korea

242

254

256

2,616

2,565

2.0%

Taiwan

252

288

396

3,097

2,966

1.4%

58

349

664

-47.5%

Mexico

Thailand
Turkey

433

656

578

5,512

4,717

16.8%

Others

184

135

214

1,436

1,475

-2.7%

1,465

1,631

2,080

18,368

20,690

-11.2%

2011
642

% Chg
-32.3

Total

Source: American Metal Market, 12/19/12; in 000 tonnes

Table 6: US Exports of Ferrous Scrap by Grade, October 2012

Product
Alloys
Borings

Oct12
63

Sep12
52

Aug12
56

2012
570

10

77

92

-16.7

Cast iron

33

38

57

485

439

10.6

No. 1 bundles

14

35

50

396

430

-7.8

No. 2 bundles

-6.5

No. 1 heavy

509

586

680

6,449

6,911

-6.7

No. 2 heavy

94

77

78

965

992

-2.7

Plate/structural

74

82

115

867

858

1.1

Shavings

12

21

33

216

194

11.8

Shredded

395

179

706

5,548

7,043

-21.2

Stainless

61

54

58

519

548

-5.2

Tinned

10

10

15

127

102

23.8

193

187

225

2,140

2,230

-4.1

1,465

1,631

2,080

18,368

20,690

-11.2

Unspecified
Total

Source: American Metal Market, 12/19/12; in 000 tonnes

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Steel Industry Update/281

Locker Associates Steel Track: Spot Prices

U.S. Flat-Rolled Prices

U.S. Scrap Prices

($ per ton)

($ per ton)

500

1100

#1 Busheling
1000

450

Plate
Shredded
Scrap

900
400

CR Coil

800

350

700

#1 Heavy Melt
Rebar

300

HR Band

600

250

500

200

400
'07 '08 '09 '10 1q 2q 3q 4q J

M A M

S O N D

'07 '08 '09 '10 1q 2q 3q 4q J

M A M

S O N D

Locker Associates Steel Track: Performance

U.S. Raw Steel Production

10.0

(mil net tons)

9.0

2012

80%

7.0

70%

6.0

60%

5.0

50%

4.0

40%

2011

90%

8.0

3.0

U.S. Capacity Utilization

100%

2012
2011

30%

2012 8.5 8.3 8.8 8.6 8.7 8.0 8.1 8.4 7.5 7.5

2012 78% 81% 80% 81% 79% 75% 73% 76% 70% 68%

2011 7.9 7.4 8.1 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.0 7.9

2011 73% 75% 75% 74% 73% 76% 75% 76% 76% 72%

Steel Mill Products: US Imports, October & Year-to-Date, 2012

Imports: Country of Origin
(000 net tons)

Canada..
Mexico
Other W. Hemisphere..
European Union
Other Europe*..
Asia.
Oceania.
Africa..
Total
Imports: Customs District
Atlantic Coast
Gulf Coast/Mexican Border
Pacific Coast.
Gr Lakes/Canadian Border
Off Shore

Month of October
2012
2011
% Chg
437
590
-25.9%
222
180
23.4%
281
299
-6.2%
456
368
23.8%
214
143
49.4%
955
646
47.9%
38
106
-64.5%
4
7
40.5%
2,606
2,340
11.4%

Year-to-Date
2012
2011
4,943
5,210
2,222
2,492
3,632
2,843
4,751
3,581
3,345
2,257
9,013
6,932
295
881
92
135
28,293
24,331

266
1,109
577
623
31

3,538
13,535
4,851
6,179
189

212
1,066
322
724
16

Source: AISI; *includes Russia

Update #281
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25.4%
4.0%
79.3%
-13.9%
96.1%

2,701
10,864
4,346
6,248
172

% Chg
-5.1%
-10.9%
27.7%
32.7%
48.2%
30.0%
-66.5%
-31.9%
16.3%
31.0%
24.6%
11.6%
-1.1%
9.9%

Steel Industry Update/281

Locker Associates, Inc.

LOCKER ASSOCIATES is a business-consulting firm that specializes in enhancing the
competitiveness of businesses and industries on behalf of unions, corporate and government clients.
By combining expert business and financial analysis with a sensitivity to labor issues, the firm is
uniquely qualified to help clients manage change by:

leading joint labor/management business improvement initiatives;

facilitating ownership transitions to secure the long-term viability of a business;
conducting strategic industry studies to identify future challenges and opportunities;
representing unions in strategic planning, workplace reorganization and bankruptcy
formulating business plans for turnaround situations; and
performing due diligence for equity and debt investors.

Over the last 28 years, the firm has directed over 225 projects spanning manufacturing,
transportation, distribution and mining industries. Typical projects involve in-depth analysis of a
firms market, financial and operating performance on behalf of a cooperative labor-management
effort. Locker Associates also produces a widely read monthly newsletter, Steel Industry Update
that circulates throughout the U.S. and Canadian steel industry.

MAJOR CLIENTS
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Special Metals

RECENT PROJECTS
Metallic Lathers and Reinforcing Ironworkers (2010-Present): strategic industry research and
ongoing advisement on major industry trends and companies to help enhance the competitive
position of the unionized NYC construction industry
Building & Construction Trades Council of Greater NY (BCTC) (2011-present): analysis and
advisement regarding major trends in the New York City construction industry, including capital
market developments which affect BCTC members
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metallurgical coal market for a large metallurgical coal producer
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