Steel Industry Update #279

Steel Industry Update/279
October 2012
Locker Associates, 225 Broadway, Suite 2625 New York NY 10007
Tel: 212-962-2980
Table 1: Selected U.S. Steel Industry Data, August & Year-to-Date, 2012
Month of August
2012
2011
% Chg
Raw Steel Production ........................8,402
8,199
2.5%
(000 net tons)
2012
67,395
Year-to-Date
2011
63,375
% Chg
6.3%
Capacity Utilization .......................... 76.3
75.7
--
77.8
74.7
--
Mill Shipments ...................................8,377
8,305
0.9%
66,405
60,494
9.8%
Exports ..............................................1,172
1,189
-1.4%
9,534
8,659
10.1%
Total Imports......................................2,674
2,462
8.6%
23,083
19,727
17.0%
Finished Steel Imports .....................2,049
1,834
11.7%
17,875
15,021
19.0%
Apparent Steel Supply* ......................9,254
8,950
3.4%
74,746
66,856
11.8%
Imports as % of Supply*................... 22.1
20.5
--
23.9
22.5
--
Average Spot Price** ($/ton) ............... $731
$821
-10.9%
$781
$898
-13.1%
Scrap Price# ($/ton) ............................ $393
$436
-9.9%
$412
$440
-6.3%
Sources: AISI, SteelBenchmarker
*Excl semi-finished imports
**Avg price of 3 carbon products
#shredded scrap
Table 2: U.S. Spot Prices for Selected Steel Products, October & Year-to-Date, 2012
Hot Rolled Band....

Cold Rolled Coil........
Coiled Plate..................
Month of October
2012
2011
% Chg
$605
$681
-11.2%
705
773
-8.8%
739
975
-24.2%
Year-to-Date
2012
2011
$666
$773
765
869
866
1,008
% Chg
-13.9%
-11.9%
-14.1%
Average Spot Price....
$683
$810
-15.6%
$766
$883
-13.3%
OCTG*
$1,914
$2,030
-5.7%
$1,985
$1,910
3.9%
#1 Heavy Melt...
Shredded Scrap...
#1 Busheling.
$301
330
337
$396
440
485
-24.0%
-25.0%
-30.5%
$362
401
414
$403
440
477
-10.0%
-8.9%
-13.2%
Iron Ore ($/dmtu)...

Pig Iron ($/tonne)...
$99
$481
$177
$492
-44.1%
-2.2%
$131
$468
$174
$486
-24.8%
-3.7%
($ per net ton)
Sources: World Steel Dynamics, Spears Research; SteelOnTheNet.com; IndexMundi.com; *OCTG data
is September 2012; Pig Iron data is September 2012, $/dmtu: US$/dry metric tonne unit
Email: lockerassociates@yahoo.com | Website: www.lockerassociates.com
Table 3: World Crude Steel Production, September & Year-to-Date, 2012

Month of September
Year-to-Date
(000 metric tons)
2012
2011
% Chg
2012
2011
Region
% Chg
European Union.
14,105
14,672
-3.9%
129,625
135,927
-4.6%
Other Europe.
3,197
3,214
-0.5%
28,722
27,422
4.7%
C.I.S.
9,597
9,081
5.7%
84,732
84,477
0.3%
North America
9,680
9,924
-2.5%
92,792
89,277
3.9%
South America...
3,600
3,900
-7.7%
35,055
36,781
-4.7%
Africa/Middle East.....
2,661
2,617
1.7%
25,554
25,425
0.5%
Asia..
80,285
79,587
0.9%
748,560
737,262
1.5%
Oceania......
511
626
-18.3%
4,378
5,917
-26.0%
Total
123,637
123,622
0.0% 1,149,417 1,142,489
0.6%
China.......
Japan...
57,950
8,798
57,600
8,889
0.6%
-1.0%
542,340
81,321
533,270
81,022
1.7%
0.4%
United States..
7,015
7,233
-3.0%
68,154
64,726
5.3%
India(e).
6,155
5,829
5.6%
56,851
55,134
3.1%
Russia..
6,234
5,416
15.1%
53,777
51,538
4.3%
South Korea.......
5,602
5,503
1.8%
52,160
50,637
3.0%
Germany...
3,563
3,643
-2.2%
32,444
34,128
-4.9%
Turkey
3,052
2,997
1.9%
27,153
25,058
8.4%
Brazil...
2,848
2,859
-0.4%
26,045
26,842
-3.0%
Ukraine(e)...
2,708
2,954
-8.3%
25,124
26,546
-5.4%
All Others....
19,712
20,699
-4.8%
184,048
193,588
-4.9%
Country
Source: World Steel Association, 10/12; e=estimate
Graph 1: World Crude Steel Production, September 2012
Source: World Steel Association, 10/12; in million metric tons
-2-
Graph 2: World Steel Capacity Utilization, September 2012
Source: World Steel Association, 10/12
Table 4: Short-range Outlook for Apparent Steel Use (ASU), 2011-2013

Apparent Steel Use (Mt)
Region
European Union (27)
Other Europe
CIS
NAFTA
Central & S. America
Africa
Middle East
Asia & Oceania
World
Growth Rate, %
2011
153.1
33.2
54.8
121.3
45.7
23.9
48.2
900.6
2012 (f)
144.5
34.4
55.2
130.4
47.4
25.3
49.9
922.2
2013 (f)
148.1
36.0
57.4
135.1
50.4
27.3
52.8
947.9
2011
5.9
12.7
13.8
9.0
2.6
-3.4
2.9
5.9
2012 (f)
-5.6
3.8
0.8
7.5
3.8
5.8
3.5
2.4
2013 (f)
2.4
4.5
3.9
3.6
6.3
7.7
5.9
2.8
1,380.9
1,409.4
1,454.9
6.2
2.1
3.2
Developed Economies
Emerging/Dev. Economies
China
BRIC
MENA
395.6
985.2
623.9
759.7
59.8
394.6
1014.8
639.5
779.9
62.7
402.1
1,052.8
659.2
806.0
66.9
6.2
6.3
6.2
6.4
-2.0
-0.3
3.0
2.5
2.7
4.9
1.9
3.7
3.1
3.3
6.7
World, excl China
757.0
769.9
795.6
6.3
1.7
3.3
Source: WorldSteel.com, 10/18/12; finished steel products
-3-
Table 5: US Exports of Steel Mill Products, August 2012

Aug12
106,367
102,020
Jul12
97,346
92,789
% Chg
9.3%
9.9%
Aug11
104,436
97,333
% Chg
1.8%
4.8%
Heavy structural shapes
94,166
100,952
-6.7%
90,566
4.0%
Hot-rolled steel
74,326
87,130
-14.7%
62,806
18.3%
Cold-rolled steel
60,114
53,966
11.4%
54,155
11.0%
Blooms, billets and slabs
41,315
26,135
58.1%
47,582
-13.2%
Plate in coil
41,293
47,712
-13.5%
85,048
-51.4%
Line pipe
34,714
28,752
20.7%
14,595
137.8%
Oil country goods
33,372
32,852
1.6%
38,221
-12.7%
995,316
940,967
5.8%
1,014,921
-1.9%
67,910
42,766
58.8%
63,748
6.5%
1,063,226
983,734
8.1%
1,078,669
-1.4%
Product
Cut-to-length
Hot-dipped gal sheet/strip
Total carbon and alloy

Stainless
Total Exports
Source: American Metal Market, 10/16/12
Table 6: London Metal Exchange Nonferrous Base Metal Averages, September 2012
Commodity
Aluminum
Copper
2011 Cash Avgs

$1.09
$4.00
Sept. 2012 Avgs

$0.93
$3.66
YTD Avgs*
$0.92
$3.62
Lead
$1.09
$0.98
$0.92
Nickel
$10.38
$7.81
$8.05
Zinc
$1.00
$0.91
$0.88
Tin
$11.80
$9.39
$9.52
No.1 HMS composite*
$411.72
$347.50
$369.67
Source: Export Tax Advisors, 10/16/12; cents/lb except No 1 HMS
-4-
Table 8: Top 20 Largest Scrap Metal Processors, 2011

Company
Ferrous Tons
Processed (2011) CEO
Emp
Plants
Eur Metal Recycling (EMR)
11 million
3,000
150
U.K., U.S., Germany, The

Netherlands
Chris Sheppard
Nations
Scholz Group
10.7 million
B Scholz, O Scholz
7,500
500
Germany, Austria, Poland,

Czech Republic, Slovakia,
Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania,
Turkey, Slovenia, Croatia,
Bosnia, Serbia
Sims Metal Management
10.2 million
Daniel Dienst
6,600
250
Europe, North America,

Australia, Asia
TSR Recycling
8 million (est.)
Ulrich Althoff
1,900
160
Germany, Netherlands,
Austria, Czech Republic,
Slovakia, Hungary, Poland
OmniSource Corp/Steel Dyn
5.2 million
Russel Rinn
2,000+
43
United States, Canada
David J. Joseph Co./Nucor
5 million
Keith Grass
2,200
69

US, Canada, Belgium, China,
France, Indonesia, Mexico,
Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia,
S Africa, Taiwan, Trinidad,
UAE, U.K., Vietnam
Tube City LLC
5 million
Joseph Curtin
3,900
20
Derichebourg Environment
4.9 million
Daniel Derichebourg
3,500
140
Stena Metall Group
4 million (est.)
Anders Jansson
3,486
250
Commercial Metals Co
3.3 million
Joseph Alvardo
800
60+
France, Germany, U.K., U.S.,

Mexico, Italy, Spain, Belgium
Sweden, Norway, Denmark,
Finlas, Poland, Italy
United States, Czech
Republic, Poland
9,000
70+
Germany, Poland,
Netherlands, Italy, Spain,
Slovenia, Bos & Herz, Austria,
Czech Republic, Hungary,
Bulgaria, US, China, Belgium,
Slovakia
A. Gerdau Johannpeter
na
17
Howard Sherman
700
20
2.5 million (est.)
Mike Giampaolo
350
16
Canada, US, Mexico
Kuusakoski Recycling
2.2 million (est.)
Petri Halonen
2,950
100+
OneSteel Recycling
2.1 million
Geoff Plummer
550
39
Australia, China, New

Zealand, United States,
Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Thailand
China Metal Recycling
2 million
Chun Chi Wai
600
10
China, Hong Kong
Ecore Group
2 million
Claude Dauphin (mng

dir)
1,300
105
France, Romania, Hungary,

Germany, Switzerland,
Netherlands, Belgium,
Luxembourg, China, India
Galloo Group
1.85 million
Rik Debaere
850
52
Suez-Environment
1.76 million
Jean-Louis Chaussade
na
645
Alba Group
2.85 million
Dr. Axel Schweitzer
Gerdau Long Steel Recycling
2.8 million
Ferrous Processing & Trading
2.7 million
Triple M Metal
Finland, Russia, Estonia,

Latvia, Lithuania, Poland,
Sweden, Denmark, U.K.,
United States, China, Taiwan
Belgium, France, the

Netherlands
Europe, the Americas, Asia,
Africa, Australia
Source: Recycling Today, 7/12
Steel Industry Update (ISSN 1063-4339) published 12 times/year by Locker Associates, Inc. Copyright 2012 by Locker Associates, Inc. All
rights reserved. Reproduction in any form forbidden w/o permission. Locker Associates, Inc., 225 Broadway Suite 2625 New York NY 10007.
-5-
-6-
Locker Associates Steel Track: Spot Prices

U.S. Flat-Rolled Prices
U.S. Scrap Prices
($ per ton)
($ per ton)
500
1100
#1 Busheling
Plate
1000
450
Shredded
Scrap
900
400
CR Coil
800
350
700
#1 Heavy Melt
Rebar
HR Band
300
600
250
500
400
200
'07 '08 '09 '10 1q 2q 3q 4q
'07 '08 '09 '10 1q 2q 3q 4q
Locker Associates Steel Track: Performance

U.S. Raw Steel Production
10.0
(mil net tons)
2012
2012
2011
9.0
80%
7.0
70%
6.0
60%
5.0
50%
4.0
40%
2011
90%
8.0
3.0
U.S. Capacity Utilization
100%
30%
2012 8.5 8.3 8.8 8.6 8.7 8.0 8.1 8.4
2012 78% 81% 80% 81% 79% 75% 73% 76%
2011 7.9 7.4 8.1 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2
2011 73% 75% 75% 74% 73% 76% 75% 76%
Steel Mill Products: US Imports, August & Year-to-Date, 2012

Imports: Country of Origin
(000 net tons)
Canada..
Mexico
Other W. Hemisphere..
European Union
Other Europe*..
Asia.
Oceania.
Africa..
Total
Imports: Customs District
Atlantic Coast
Gulf Coast/Mexican Border
Pacific Coast.
Gr Lakes/Canadian Border
Off Shore
Month of August
2012
2011
% Chg
469
520
-9.8%
206
240
-14.2%
402
443
-9.3%
570
323
76.5%
264
169
56.2%
757
739
2.4%
0
17 -100.0%
6
12
-50.0%
2,674
2,462
8.6%
Year-to-Date
2012
2011
4,050
4,082
1,753
2,106
3,045
2,262
3,836
2,941
2,883
1,905
7,197
5,633
249
671
70
125
23,083
19,727
265
1,359
384
654
13
2,852
11,244
3,872
4,971
144
179
1,265
344
644
28
Source: AISI; *includes Russia
Update #279
-7-
48.0%
7.4%
11.6%
1.6%
-53.6%
2,302
8,717
3,690
4,870
148
% Chg
-0.8%
-16.8%
34.6%
30.4%
51.3%
27.8%
-62.9%
-44.0%
17.0%
23.9%
29.0%
4.9%
2.1%
-2.7%
Locker Associates, Inc.

LOCKER ASSOCIATES is a business-consulting firm that specializes in enhancing the
competitiveness of businesses and industries on behalf of unions, corporate and government clients.
By combining expert business and financial analysis with a sensitivity to labor issues, the firm is
uniquely qualified to help clients manage change by:
leading joint labor/management business improvement initiatives;

facilitating ownership transitions to secure the long-term viability of a business;
conducting strategic industry studies to identify future challenges and opportunities;
representing unions in strategic planning, workplace reorganization and bankruptcy
formulating business plans for turnaround situations; and
performing due diligence for equity and debt investors.
Over the last 28 years, the firm has directed over 225 projects spanning manufacturing,
transportation, distribution and mining industries. Typical projects involve in-depth analysis of a
firms market, financial and operating performance on behalf of a cooperative labor-management
effort. Locker Associates also produces a widely read monthly newsletter, Steel Industry Update
that circulates throughout the U.S. and Canadian steel industry.
MAJOR CLIENTS
United Steelworkers
Bank of Boston
Congress Financial
Santander Investment Securities
AEIF-IAM/AK Steel Middletown
Prudential Securities
US Steel Joint Labor-Mgmt Comm
LTV Steel Joint Labor-Mgmt Committee
Intl Union of Electrical Workers
Bethlehem Joint Labor-Mgmt Comm
Inland Steel Joint Labor-Mgmt Comm
Northwestern Steel and Wire
Boilermakers
American Federation of Musicians
USS/KOBE
Sysco Food Services of San Francisco
International Brotherhood of Teamsters
Development Bank of South Africa
J&L Structural Steel
Air Line Pilots Association/Delta Air Lines MEC

Sharpsville Quality Products
IPSCO
International Association of Machinists
CSEA/AFSCME
United Auto Workers
Service Employees International Union
American Fed of Television & Radio Artists
Supervalu
United Mine Workers
Algoma Steel
North American Refractories
UNITE/HERE
AFL-CIO George Meany Center
Watermill Ventures
Wheeling-Pittsburgh Steel
Canadian Steel Trade & Employment Congress
Minn Gov's Task Force on Mining
Special Metals
RECENT PROJECTS
Metallic Lathers and Reinforcing Ironworkers (2010-Present): strategic industry research and
ongoing advisement on major industry trends and companies to help enhance the competitive
position of the unionized NYC construction industry
Building & Construction Trades Council of Greater NY (BCTC) (2011-present): analysis and
advisement regarding major trends in the New York City construction industry, including capital
market developments which affect BCTC members
Communication Workers of America (CWA) (2011-present): research and analysis to prepare
CWA for nationwide contract negotiations with AT&T
IBT-Supervalu (2010): assist union and management to identify major operational problems
impacting warehouse performance and provide recommendations for joint improvement
Metallurgical Coal Producer (2011): prepared a detailed study on the major trends in the world
metallurgical coal market for a large metallurgical coal producer
-8-

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Steel Industry Update/279

Locker Associates, 225 Broadway, Suite 2625 New York NY 10007

Capacity Utilization .......................... 76.3

Mill Shipments ...................................8,377

Finished Steel Imports .....................2,049

Apparent Steel Supply* ......................9,254

Imports as % of Supply*................... 22.1

Average Spot Price** ($/ton) ............... $731

Scrap Price# ($/ton) ............................ $393

Sources: AISI, SteelBenchmarker

*Excl semi-finished imports

**Avg price of 3 carbon products

Hot Rolled Band....

Average Spot Price....

Iron Ore ($/dmtu)...

($ per net ton)

Email: lockerassociates@yahoo.com | Website: www.lockerassociates.com