Steel Industry Update/278

September 2012

Locker Associates, 225 Broadway, Suite 2625 New York NY 10007

Tel: 212-962-2980

Table 1: Selected U.S. Steel Industry Data, July & Year-to-Date, 2012
Month of July
2012
2011
Raw Steel Production ........................8,075
8,122
(000 net tons)

% Chg
-0.6%

Year-to-Date
2012
2011
58,992
55,176

% Chg
6.9%

Capacity Utilization .......................... 73.3

75.0

--

78.0

74.5

--

Mill Shipments ...................................7,910

7,409

6.8%

58,028

52,189

11.2%

Exports ..............................................1,084

1,062

2.1%

8,362

7,470

11.9%

Total Imports......................................2,777

2,620

6.0%

20,409

17,266

18.2%

Finished Steel Imports .....................2,221

2,095

6.0%

15,826

13,187

20.0%

Apparent Steel Supply* ......................9,047

8,443

7.2%

65,492

57,906

13.1%

Imports as % of Supply*................... 24.6

24.8

--

24.2

22.8

--

Average Spot Price** ($/ton) ............... 711

865

-17.8%

788

909

-13.4%

Scrap Price# ($/ton) ............................ 332

443

-25.1%

415

440

-5.8%

Sources: AISI, SteelBenchmarker

*Excl semi-finished imports

**Avg price of 3 carbon products

#shredded scrap

Table 2: U.S. Spot Prices for Selected Steel Products, September & Year-to-Date, 2012

Hot Rolled Band....

Cold Rolled Coil........
Coiled Plate..................

Month of September
2012
2011
% Chg
$657
$697
-5.7%
753
800
-5.9%
778
1,017
-23.5%

Year-to-Date
2012
2011
$673
$783
772
879
880
1,012

% Chg
-14.1%
-12.2%
-13.0%

Average Spot Price....

$729

$838

-13.0%

$775

$891

-13.1%

OCTG*

$731

$821

-10.9%

$781

$898

-13.1%

#1 Heavy Melt...
Shredded Scrap...
#1 Busheling.

$345
382
376
128
$481

$401
444
483
173
$492

-14.0%
-14.0%
-22.2%
-26.0%
-2.2%

$369
409
422
139
$468

$403
440
476
177
$486

-8.5%
-7.1%
-11.3%
-21.4%
-3.7%

($ per net ton)

Iron Ore (c/dmtu)..

Pig Iron ($/tonne)...

Sources: World Steel Dynamics, Spears Research; SteelOnTheNet.com; IndexMundi.com; *OCTG data
is August 2012; Iron Ore and Pig Iron data is July 2012, c/dmtu: cents/dry metric tonne unit

Email: lockerassociates@yahoo.com | Website: www.lockerassociates.com

Steel Industry Update/278

Table 3: World Crude Steel Production, August & Year-to-Date, 2012

Month of August
Year-to-Date
(000 metric tons)
2012
2011
% Chg
2012
2011
Region

% Chg

European Union.
Other Europe.

12,196
3,188

12,761
3,037

-4.4%
5.0%

115,733
25,525

121,255
24,208

-4.6%
5.4%

C.I.S.

9,107

9,463

-3.8%

74,967

75,396

-0.6%

North America

10,221

10,146

0.7%

82,857

79,352

4.4%

South America...

3,861

4,143

-6.8%

31,519

32,881

-4.1%

Africa/Middle East.....

2,836

2,581

9.9%

23,013

22,808

0.9%

Asia..

81,794

82,244

-0.5%

665,718

652,619

2.0%

Oceania......

530

668

-20.7%

3,883

5,291

-26.6%

Total

123,733

125,042

-1.0% 1,023,216 1,013,811

0.9%

China.......
Japan...

58,703
9,208

59,691
8,909

-1.7%
3.3%

481,573
72,523

470,614
72,134

2.3%
0.5%

United States..

7,530

7,438

1.2%

61,047

57,492

6.2%

India(e).

6,360

6,199

2.6%

50,696

49,305

2.8%

Russia..

5,788

5,684

1.8%

47,398

46,122

2.8%

South Korea.......

5,674

5,519

2.8%

46,600

45,134

3.2%

Germany...

3,363

3,622

-7.1%

28,874

30,485

-5.3%

Turkey

3,042

2,798

8.7%

24,101

22,061

9.2%

Brazil...

2,837

3,026

-6.2%

23,187

23,983

-3.3%

Ukraine(e)...

2,664

3,079

-13.3%

22,409

23,592

-5.0%

All Others....

18,564

19,077

-2.7%

164,808

172,889

-4.7%

Country

Source: World Steel Association, 9/12; e=estimate

Graph 1: World Crude Steel Production, August 2012

Source: World Steel Association, 9/12; in million metric tons

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Steel Industry Update/278

Graph 2: World Steel Capacity Utilization, August 2012

Source: World Steel Association, 9/12

Table 4: US Exports of No. 1 Heavy Melting Scrap Steel, June 2012

Country
China
Egypt
India
Malaysia
Mexico
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
Vietnam
Others

June
7.0
63.3
7.5
20.8
13.6
114.2
145.8
0.2
283.6
9.8
9.9

May
22.3
0
9.8
84.0
6.5
80.1
134.5
19.6
317.1
9.7
23.7

April
33.7
0
9.0
36.9
3.6
61.4
142.1
0.6
344.4
2.7
22.0

2012
141.0
190.8
80.9
187.2
39.2
608.8
779.3
58.7
1,742.1
48.4
105.2

2011
250.6
196.5
110.7
170.0
53.7
763.6
761.7
50.6
1,162.0
124.3
220.6

% Chg
-43.7%
-2.9%
-26.9%
10.1%
-27.1%
-20.9%
2.3%
16.1%
49.9%
-61.1%
-52.3%

Total

675.7

707.5

656.4

3,976.6

3,864.4

2.9%

Source: American Metal Market, 9/5/12; in 000 tonnes

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Steel Industry Update/278

Table 5: Africa/Middle East Crude Steel Production, July 2012

Country
Algeria
Egypt
Iran
Morocco
Saudi Arabia
South Africa

Jul '12
65
590
1,122
50
282
580

Jul '11
60
572
1,078
61
332
623

% Chg
7.6%
3.1%
4.0%
-17.9%
-15.0%
-6.9%

YTD '12
416
3,919
8,436
352
2,991
3,980

YTD '11
307
3,820
7,804
407
3,057
4,832

% Chg
35.5%
2.6%
8.1%
-13.4%
-2.2%
-17.6%

2,689

2,726

-1.4%

20,094

20,228

-0.7%

Africa/Mid East

Source: Worldsteel.com, 8/26/12; in tonnes

Table 6: U.S. Steel Import License Applications, August 2012

Aug License
Applications*
521.1

July Prelim
Imports*
486.9

Oil country goods

281.6

260.7

8.0

Hot-rolled sheet

140.2

219.6

-36.2

Line pipe

191.4

230.2

-16.9

HD galv sheet & strip

136.5

151.1

-9.6

Cut-to-length pipe

135.4

100.4

34.9

Cold-rolled sheet

96.1

77.4

24.1

Plate in coil

69.6

105.3

-34.0

Heavy structural shapes

31.1

18.6

66.8

2241.4

2230.6

0.5

109.1

112.1

-2.7

2350.5

2342.6

0.3

Product
Blooms, billets and slabs

Carbon & Alloy

Stainless
Total

% Chg
7.0

Source: American Metal Market, 9/7/12; in 000s tonnes

Steel Industry Update (ISSN 1063-4339) published 12 times/year by Locker Associates, Inc. Copyright 2012 by Locker Associates, Inc. All
rights reserved. Reproduction in any form forbidden w/o permission. Locker Associates, Inc., 225 Broadway Suite 2625 New York NY 10007.

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Steel Industry Update/278

Table 7: Top 20 Blast Furnace Iron Producing Countries, July 2012

Rank
1

Country
China

Jan '12
54,265

Feb '12
53,416

Mar '12
57,511

Apr '12
56,776

May '12
57,341

Jun '12
55,715

Jul '12
56,321

YTD 12
391,345

Japan

6,574

6,388

7,016

6,687

6,847

6,824

7,104

47,440

Russia

4,331

4,014

4,359

4,193

4,468

4,115

4,100

29,580

South Korea

3,508

3,493

3,585

3,492

3,514

3,369

3,599

24,560

India

3,280

3,358

3,259

3,577

3,783

3,719

3,840

24,816

United States

2,775

2,662

3,058

2,923

2,897

2,573

2,620

19,508

Ukraine

2,473

2,174

2,473

2,479

2,489

2,410

2,490

16,988

Germany

2,228

2,195

2,391

2,260

2,385

2,337

2,245

16,041

Brazil

2,210

2,155

2,416

2,354

2,235

2,155

2,300

15,825

10

Taiwan, China

917

893

1,022

954

1,016

1,059

1,100

6,961

11

Italy

846

830

867

845

850

798

825

5,861

12

France

826

783

883

835

899

790

820

5,836

13

Turkey

735

693

759

582

660

607

725

4,761

14

Canada

677

635

673

641

675

650

675

4,626

15

Netherlands

535

443

510

488

445

480

495

3,396

16

Austria

484

460

541

510

484

480

471

3,430

17

Finland & Sweden

480

444

553

566

485

428

298

3,254

18

United Kingdom

453

395

421

505

774

738

716

4,002

19

South Africa

420

410

430

420

435

420

435

2,970

20

Poland

391

348

401

378

328

302

365

2,513

Source: Worldsteel.com, 8/27/12; in 000 tonnes

Table 8: Severstal Financial Results, 2

(in $ millions)

Revenue
EBITDA
Profit from operations
Net profit

Q2'12
$3,718
664
481
155

nd

Quarter 2012
Q1'12
$3,679
562
385
427

Source: SteelGuru.com, 8/30/12

-5-

% Chg
1.1%
18.1%
24.9%
-63.7%

H1'12
$7,397
1,226
866
582

H1'11
$7,566
1,799
1,471
1,143

% Chg
-2.2%
-31.9%
-41.1%
-49.1%

Steel Industry Update/278

Table 9: Carbon Plate Consumption, 2011 - 2012 YTD

U.S.
Import
Standard
Month Total Plate*
Share
Plate Price
1/2011
837.9
18.1%
$1,088
2/2011
767.4
16.9%
$1,204

U.S. Price
Premium vs
Europe
$258
$319

3/2011

828.0

20.0%

$1,287

$362

4/2011

812.5

23.7%

$1,176

$261

5/2011

839.7

29.6%

$1,173

$274

6/2011

943.8

28.4%

$1,171

$273

7/2011

909.2

27.3%

$1,139

$297

8/2011

1,048.5

25.4%

$1,110

$279

9/2011

809.5

27.1%

$1,121

$326

10/2011

839.2

28.0%

$1,075

$305

11/2011

759.5

31.0%

$1,034

$303

12/2011

932.9

18.2%

$1,016

$316

1/2012

937.3

25.7%

$1,018

$288

2/2012

924.6

25.8%

$1,030

$260

3/2012

919.2

25.3%

$1,024

$256

4/2012

1,030.0

33.2%

$1,031

$281

5/2012

938.6

27.3%

$991

$241

6/2012

na

na

$969

$260

7/2012

na

na

$902

$216

Source: Metal Strategies, in Metal Center News, 8/12; *US consumption in tons

Table 10: U.S. Commodity Price Indices and Products, July 2012
Commodity
Commodity Metals Price Index

1 Month Chg
-5.8%

12 Month Chg
-25.9%

YTD Change
-14.6%

Commodity Industrial Inputs Index

-4.6%

-22.3%

-10.6%

Crude oil (petroleum)

8.9%

4.7%

-1.4%

Coal, Australian thermal coal

3.3%

-26.9%

-24.8%

Iron ore

-15.7%

-39.3%

-23.2%

Gasoline

10.0%

6.6%

7.1%

Heating oil

8.3%

3.4%

-0.3%

Natural gas

-4.3%

-30.0%

6.3%

Aluminum

-1.8%

-22.6%

-14.3%

Copper, grade A cathode

-1.0%

-16.5%

-6.8%

Gold

2.5%

-7.2%

-1.3%

Lead

0.9%

-20.7%

-9.6%

Nickel

-2.6%

-28.2%

-21.1%

Silver

4.9%

-28.6%

-6.5%

Tin

0.7%

-22.4%

-13.3%

Uranium

-2.2%

-2.8%

-5.9%

Zinc

-1.7%

-17.4%

-8.7%

Source: IndexMundi.com, 9/12/12; YTD is July 2012

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Steel Industry Update/278

Table 11: US Sales Volume by Top Seven Automakers, August 2012

Company
GM
Ford
Toyota
Chrysler
Honda
Hyundai/Kia
Nissan

Aug12
240.5
197.2
188.5
148.5
131.3
111.1
98.5

Aug11
218.5
175.2
129.5
130.1
82.3
99.7
91.5

% Chg
10.1%
12.6%
45.6%
14.1%
59.5%
11.5%
7.6%

12 YTD
1,757.5
1,514.8
1,399.5
1,108.6
949.2
866.6
774.6

11 YTD
1,695.0
1,428.8
1,073.1
882.1
770.3
772.7
681.1

% Chg
3.7%
6.0%
30.4%
25.7%
23.2%
12.2%
13.7%

Source: American Metal Market, 9/6/12; in 000s units

Table 12: US Steel Industry Political Contributions, 2011-2012 Election Cycle

Indiv
PACs
Dems
Repubs Soft $
Rank
Organization
Amount
1 Renco Group

$1,096,200

0%

9%

2 Nucor Corp

$309,054

26%

73%

3 US Steel

$174,661

14%

86%

4 Ellwood Group

$160,500

0%

100%

5 Worthington Industries

$146,000

0%

100%

6 Kenwal Steel

$141,650

1%

99%

7 Charlotte Pipe & Foundry

$75,418

2%

98%

8 Midwest Steel

$73,575

0%

87%

9 ArcelorMittal USA

$69,193

45%

54%

10 AK Steel

$68,500

36%

64%

11 American Iron & Steel Inst

$60,650

32%

68%

12 Damascus Steel Casting

$58,550

100%

0%

13 King Steel

$52,500

0%

100%

14 Permian Enterprises

$50,750

0%

100%

15 Superior Supply & Steel

$48,000

0%

100%

16 New Process Steel

$45,000

0%

100%

17 Allegheny Technologies

$43,750

17%

83%

18 Sebulsky Industries

$41,800

0%

100%

19 DOVE

$39,800

0%

100%

20 San Antonio Steel

$39,800

0%

100%

$2,795,351

13.7%

81.1%

Total
Source: OpenSecrets.com 9/16/12

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Steel Industry Update/278

Locker Associates Steel Track: Spot Prices

U.S. Flat-Rolled Prices

U.S. Scrap Prices

($ per ton)

($ per ton)

500

1100

#1 Busheling
Plate
1000

450

Shredded
Scrap

900
400

CR Coil
800
350
700

#1 Heavy Melt

Rebar

HR Band

300

600

250

500

400

200
'07 '08 '09 '10 1q 2q 3q 4q

'07 '08 '09 '10 1q 2q 3q 4q

Locker Associates Steel Track: Performance

U.S. Raw Steel Production

10.0

(mil net tons)

9.0

2012

80%

7.0

70%

6.0

60%

5.0

50%

4.0

40%

2011

90%

8.0

3.0

U.S. Capacity Utilization

100%

2012
2011

30%

2012 8.5 8.3 8.8 8.6 8.7 8.0 8.1

2012 78% 81% 80% 81% 79% 75% 73%

2011 7.9 7.4 8.1 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1

2011 73% 75% 75% 74% 73% 76% 75%

Steel Mill Products: US Imports, July & Year-to-Date, 2012

Imports: Country of Origin
(000 net tons)

Canada..
Mexico
Other W. Hemisphere..
European Union
Other Europe*..
Asia.
Oceania.
Africa..
Total
Imports: Customs District
Atlantic Coast
Gulf Coast/Mexican Border
Pacific Coast.
Gr Lakes/Canadian Border
Off Shore

Month of July
2012
2011
526
454
240
251
271
300
492
417
186
238
981
820
58
122
23
18
2,777
2,620
382
1,247
492
642
15

249
1,214
515
628
14

Source: AISI; *includes Russia

Update #278
-8-

% Chg
15.9%
-4.4%
-9.7%
18.0%
-21.8%
19.6%
-52.5%
27.8%
6.0%
53.4%
2.7%
-4.5%
2.2%
7.1%

Year-to-Date
2012
2011
3,581
3,562
1,547
1,866
2,643
1,819
3,265
2,618
2,619
1,737
6,440
4,895
249
655
64
114
20,409
17,266
2,588
9,885
3,488
4,317
131

2,123
7,452
3,346
4,226
119

% Chg
0.5%
-17.1%
45.3%
24.7%
50.8%
31.6%
-62.0%
-43.9%
18.2%
21.9%
32.6%
4.2%
2.2%
10.1%

Steel Industry Update/278

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