Terry & the Finger Lakes

1962

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Clark67.jpg

Terry & the Finger Lakes

1992

Route 414: Driving from Raceway to Watkins Glen

Terry & the Finger Lakes

2011

Taughannock Falls: Filming of PBS-TVs America Revealed: Electric Nation

How much gas?

If Im not right: shale gas will cause an investment loss of untold billions of dollars?

If Im right: shale gas will cause a delay in developing renewable energy and add more carbon to the atmosphere*?

* Note lack of concern about H2O

There is moral ambiguity on both sides!

Tony Ingraffea with Yoko Ono and son.

Cornell (NY)

Penn State (PA)

Iron Law of Climate Policy

Dr. Pielke, a political scientist at the University of Colorado, calls it iron law of climate policy: When theres a conflict between policies promoting economic growth and policies restricting carbon dioxide, economic growth wins every time. People will make trade-offs, but the one thing that wont be traded off is keeping the lights on at reasonable cost, he says. Given the reluctance of affluent Europeans to make sacrifices, what are the odds of persuading billions of people in poorer countries to pay more for energy today in return for a cooler climate at the end of the century?
JOHN TIERNEY, New York Times, January 16, 2012

This view

There are three (3) stakeholders with a fondness for their land, which in some cases has been owned by their families for generations.

The third stakeholder

Area Industry & commerce: A fourth stakeholder

The paradox is that wine may depend on brine!

Fracked gas (= brine)

A moral ambiguity: Fracked gas (= brine)

The Necessary Sacrifice Interview:

i.e., Not Pinedale, UT: 16 pads/mile2

Its that type of sacrifice that were talking about. Its a necessary sacrifice. Engelder said he believes Pennsylvanians must sacrifice to maintain their lifestyle. If we want to talk about sacrifice, then we look to Dimock, he said, referring to the best-known Pennsylvania site for drilling accidents. This is a very complex industry and there will be accidents, he said. People expect that level of risk in automobiles.

Myth #1: Industry does not learn how to reduce risk Leaking wells are as common now as 20 years ago

US auto fatalities
RISK Deaths Vehicle /100 Year Deaths Miles million Population Billions vehicle miles http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year Fraction of Population

58,282 KIA during Vietnam War

A B

1971 1972

52,542 54,589

1,178 1,259

4.46 4.33

207,660,677 0.00025302 209,896,021 0.00026008

1973
xxx 2008 2009

54,052
xxx 37,261 33,808

1,313
xxx 2,974

4.12
xxx 1.25

211,908,788 0.00025507
xxx xxx 303,824,640 0.000122640 306,700,000 0.000110737

2010

32,885

1.11

308,745,538

A
B

Sustained Casing Vent Flows

http://www.psehealthyenergy.org/

US auto fatalities
RISK Fraction of Population Deaths Vehicle /100 Year Deaths Miles million Population Billions vehicle miles http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year

58,282 KIA during Vietnam War

A B

1971 1972

52,542 54,589

1,178 1,259

4.46 4.33

207,660,677 0.00025302 209,896,021 0.00026008

1973
xxx 2008 2009

54,052
xxx 37,261 33,808

1,313
xxx 2,974

4.12
xxx 1.25

211,908,788 0.00025507
xxx xxx 303,824,640 0.000122640 306,700,000 0.000110737

2010

32,885

1.11

308,745,538

Myth #2: There are no industrial well pads in the Finger Lakes Region In fact, infrastructure is extensive for Trenton-Black River Production

Boudinot 23968-A 31-123-22941

Utica

6000

Trenton/Black River

http://www.energyindepth.org/finger-lakes-region-has-been-developing-oil-gas-for-decades/

Myth #3: Industry is still clueless after doing high volume HF 20,000+ times! PA currently has > 6,391 active Marcellus wells
http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/local/marcellusshale/powdermill-compiles-list-of-pa-shale-wells-637445/

Myth #4: Natural gas is not a clean fuel EPA will require green completions by 2015

Mann called it ironic that the shift from coal to gas has helped bring the U.S. closer to meeting some of the greenhouse gas targets in the 1997 Kyoto treaty on global warming. The gas boom is actually one of a number of reasons for cautious optimism, Mann said. Theres a lot of doom and gloom out there. It is important to point out that there is still time to address global warning.
Kevin Begos, AP, August 17, 2012

New England Electricity Generation

Wind requires backup!

The International Energy Agency said the U.S. has cut carbon dioxide emissions more than any Kevin Begos, AP, other country over the last six years. August 17, 2012

This is shale gas pushing back coal over a five-year period!

47 kW in 3,968 ft2 ------ Scales to 1.938 acres/MW (not utility-scale generation) Buffalo NY = average sunshine 6.047 hour each day. Reliability factor is 0.252

Installed by Renewable Rochester with subsidies from NYSERDA and tax incentives.

By trading with the grid (NYSEG), panels provide 80% of Lakewoods needs!

AES Greenidge

Greenidge is a 161 MW coal-fired electric power plant on a 153 acre site (24/7)

For utility-scale electricity generation, photovoltaic systems require 3 to 10 acres per MW of generating capacity. So, 485 to 1610 acres of solar panels required! But the sun does not shine 24/7! Bentek says that power companies plan to retire 175 coal-fired plants over the next five years.

Kevin Begos, AP, August 17, 2012

Solar reliability in western NYS is 25.2%

1,924 to 6,389 acres of solar panels to replace Greenidge on a 1:1 basis

On a 1:1 replacement of Greenidge with solar panels could require up to 3% of the area of Yates County! This is the scenery that will greet tourists forever!

Dutch Hill/Cohocton Wind Farm 50 turbines 125 MW

The development of wind power has two main problems. First, the wind does not blow all the time, so there must be backup power plants (often fueled by natural gas) ready to turn on instantly if the wind slackens.

November 2012

August 2008

A Moral Ambiguity? A Necessary Sacrifice?

Or

If we can manage but not eliminate the risks of drilling in the short term, is it worth exposing a winery along Seneca Lake to some level of risk in order to reduce a perhaps greater level of risk to a wheat farm in eastern Kansas or a fishery in Washington State or a retired cop on a pension in Staten Island?

A precise answer to the wrong question:

Fracking is immoral

Fracking is immoral

Seamus McGraw, author, on seeing this bumper sticker on a Finger Lakes car:

I wish I had such moral certitude!

Dimock Water

Moral certitude allows people to make statements like this: Fracking kills, and it doesnt just kill us, Ms. Ono said. It kills the land, nature and, eventually, the whole world.

This type of statement is irresponsible!

Engelder desklog #41, page 132 Moral certitude at the collegiate level!

I love small towns like these, Meredith gushed from the back seat. My other three passengers, also members of the Ithaca College club Frack Off, murmured in agreement.
http://www.coalitiontoprotectnewyork.org/tag/hydraulic-fracturing/