Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| January 24, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| January 24, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Industry bodies oppose commodities transaction tax
Industry bodies have raised concern against the governments anticipated move to levy commodity transaction tax (CTT) in Budget 2013- 14, scheduled to be announced on February 28. In a pre- Budget recommendation, the Confederation of Indian Industry said exchange traded commodity transactions continued to be exempted from CTT. It argued the imposition of CTT would not only increase transaction costs, add to the cost of risk management and dissuade genuine hedgers, but also shift commodity derivatives trading to unofficial and illegal dabba trading. It added globally, imposition /increase in transaction taxes had led to migration of trade. Some outside the purview of commodity futures trading have said the imposition of CTT would lead to an eightfold rise in transaction costs. A tax on commodity transactions would dissuade those who wish to hedge risks using commodity derivatives. This, in turn, would reduce market liquidity by reducing volumes and increasing bid- ask spreads. Low liquidity would lead to high volatility and improper price discovery. (Source: Business Standard)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Jan 23, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

20027 6054 53.68 95.23 1686

0.23 0.10 -0.09 -1.05 -0.38

1.05 0.87 -1.81 1.05 0.21

3.14 2.52 -2.13 4.67 1.60

17.83 18.08 7.34 -3.76 1.33

.Source: Reuters

Govt may allow coconut oil exports for 2.2m expatriates

WITH a glut in the coconut oil market driving down prices, the government may allow exports, which mainly go to the 2.2 million strong expatriate South Indian community in West Asia. Some exports also go to Europe for industrial purposes. The cabinet committee on economic affairs is expected to take a call on this at its meeting on Thursday. It may also consider lifting the ban on export of edible oils. Last October the government extended the ban on edible oil exports, except in branded consumer packs with a ceiling of 20,000 tonnes. The ban had come in the wake of a shortage at home. India produces 8 million tonnes of edible oils a year; the demand is 20 million tonnes. Branded consumer packs exported are mostly til oil and mustard oil. At the moment domestic production is not enough to meet demand. Still, the huge NRI population wants til oil and mustard oil are exported in small sachets; bulk exports are banned. (Source: Financial Chronicle)

Cotton Advisory Board scales up export, import estimates

The Cotton Advisory Board today scaled up the export and import estimates for the commodity for cotton year 2012- 13 (OctoberSeptember). The board, restructured early this month, today said export estimates had been revised from seven million bales to eight million bales. Cotton imports were also rising; against the earlier estimate of 1.2 million bales, these were now expected to stand at two million bales, as southern mills still found imports viable, it added. The cotton crop estimate for this year has been pared from 33.4 million bales to 33 million bales. While exports are rising and estimated consumption by mills has also been revised from 23 million bales to 23.4 million bales, the demand- supply gap would be met through higher imports and an upward revision in opening stock from 2.85 million bales to four million bales. Textile commissioner A B Joshi told reporters this revision was a one- time exercise. (Source: Business Standard)

Palm Oil Prices Rise as Malaysia Trims Stock

Palm oil is rebounding from a seven-month bear market after Malaysia, the second-biggest grower, cut export taxes to diminish record stockpiles. Inventories will drop 16% to 2.2 mn tn by March, the most since 2010, after tariffs were reduced to zero this month, according to the median of six analyst and trader estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The most-consumed cooking oil rose 11% since hitting a three-year low in December on prospects for more exports and as trees, which are harvested throughout the year, start their lowest-yielding quarter. (Source:
Economic Times)

Govt constitutes GoM to review urea pricing policy

Facing a mounting subsidy burden and imbalanced use of fertilisers, government has constituted a Group of Ministers (GoM), which is likely to be headed by Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar to look into urea pricing. Apart from Pawar, the GoM will include Finance Minister P Chidambaram, Fertiliser Minister M K Alagiri and Oil Minister M Veerappa Moily. "The government has formed a GoM, which is most likely to be headed by Sharad Pawar and it will look into the modified New Pricing Scheme (NPS) III for urea as well as consider earlier proposals for de-regulating the sector," a senior Fertiliser Ministry official said. (Source: Business Standard)

Syrian civil war devastates farming, U.N. says

Syria's 22-month civil war has ravaged vital infrastructure and halved the output of staple crops, the United Nations said on Wednesday, underscoring the lasting damage from which the country will take years to recover. What began as a peaceful protest movement against President Bashar al-Assad has killed more than 60,000 people, devastated the economy and left 2.5 million people hungry. A U.N. assessment in Syria this month, coordinated with both Syria's government and the opposition, found the conflict was destroying infrastructure and irrigation systems and that insecurity and fuel shortages were making it harder for farmers to harvest crops. The devastation to farming could push the government to spend more money on food imports, further straining the resources of a country that officials said was self-sufficient in wheat before the conflict. (Source: Reuters)

Cotton farmers hold crop, expect better price

Farmers in major parts of the country are holding the crop due to low prices available in the market. Also, winter season is favoring them as it helps maintain the fiber moisture (8.5%). By March, the rise in day temperature will result in major off load of the fiber. Till date only 35% of cotton harvest has reached the market this season, this is 50-60% of the raw cotton which reach the market by this time of the year. Poor procurement by the market due to less domestic and export demand has resulted in less off take; 20 lakh bales by Private traders, 2 lakh bales by CCI and 10,000 bales by federation. (Source: Agriwatch)

Fiscal battles block work on new US farm subsidy bill

Fiscal battles in Congress could prevent lawmakers from writing a new farm bill for weeks or months, prolonging disputes over farm subsidy reforms and cuts in food stamps for the poor that together could save up to $35 billion. Agricultural leaders in Congress originally hoped for speedy work on the overdue farm bill - the 2008 law expired last year but are unable to give a timeline for action in the Senate or House of Representatives. "There are a lot of pieces up in the air," Frank Lucas, chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, said on Wednesday. He cited over-arching issues such as the federal debt limit, automatic spending cuts that could take effect in March and the new "baseline" for federal spending due in a few weeks. (Source: Reuters)

Oil world trims Argentine 2013 soybean estimate, ups Brazil

Oil World has cut its estimate of Argentina's 2012-13 soybean harvest to 52 million tons from previous estimate of 53 million tons over concerns of dryness in producing areas. However, Brazil's 2012-13 season soybean crop harvest estimate has been raised to 81.5 million tons from 81 million tons forecast in December on improved weather conditions.
(Source: Agriwatch)

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| January 24, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
After witnessing profit booking on Tuesday, Chana Futures continued with its upward trend as reports of extreme cold and ground frost in north India may hamper chana cop yield. Although chana prices witnessed 17% gains in 2012 on the back of lower availability, sentiments prices remained under downside pressure during the period December 2012 till mid January 2013 on account of continuous supplies of imported chana from Australia coupled with higher output expectations.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3925 3595 Prev day -0.29 0.78

as on Jan 23, 2013 % change WoW MoM 0.20 -4.52 -9.90 -10.68 YoY 19.44 11.16

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Sowing progress
Total pulses acreage as on 18th Jan 2013 stood at 1142.33 lakh ha, down by 0.6% yoy. As on 11th Jan 2013, pulses acreage was up by 0.4%. Chana sowing is almost complete and acreage so far is at 91.9 lakh ha, up by 3.4% as on 18th Jan. Chana acreage is marginally higher by 3% this year in Rajasthan at 14.80 lakh ha, In Maharashtra, Chana acreage is up at 10.92 lakh ha as on 11th Jan 2013 vs normal area of 10.6 lakh ha and 2012 area of 7.04 lakh ha. While in AP it is up at 7.14 lakh ha as on 11th Jan 2013, up by 26%. (Source: State farm dept)

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX April contract

Demand supply fundamentals

Although Farm ministry has targeted 7.9 mn tn Chana output for 2012-13 season, higher compared to 7.58 mn tn in 2011-12, the final output would depend on the weather conditions in the major growing regions. Chana fresh crop arrivals have started in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and in small quantities in Maharashtra too. However, arrival pressure will built up February onwards when harvesting commence in MP. According to the first advance estimates of 2012-13 season, kharif pulses output is estimated lower by 14.6% at 5.26 million tonnes compared with 6.16 mn tn last year. The Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP) has suggested 10 per cent import duty on pulses to encourage domestic production. in the first six months of the new fiscal that is from April to September this year, imports were an estimated 12 lakh tonnes. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Jan 24, 2013 Resistance 3610-3630

3540-3570

Trade Scenario
In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record of around 746000 tones as compared with 485000 tons in 2011-12. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.

Outlook
Chana Futures may continue to trade with upward bias on account of adverse weather conditions in North India. Although prices may remain firm in the near term, arrival pressure will cap sharp upside in the prices.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| January 24, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures declined further on poor demand and comparatively higher supplies. Weak overseas markets also added downside pressure on the domestic sugar prices. The spot as well as futures settled marginally lower by 0.01% and 0.56% on Tuesday. There are reports that drought in parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka has hurt fresh sugarcane plantings, which may affect cane availability for sugar year 2013-14 starting October. Although this will have long term implications, outlook for short term remains bleak amid sufficient supplies. Government has allocated total 70 lac tons of non-levy sugar quota for Dec-March 2012-13 period which is higher from 59.5 lac tons last year. Raw sugar futures on ICE as well as Liffe white sugar recovered sharply after correcting sharply for seven consecutive sessions and settled 1.32% and 2.1% higher respectively on Wednesday on account of short coverings. A supply glut situation on the back of a sugar surplus for the third consecutive year has led to a sharp downside in the prices. Currently the prices are trading around 2 year lows.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Feb'13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3264

as on Jan 23, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.01 0.22 MoM -0.61 YoY 12.80

Rs/qtl

3212

-0.56

-0.31

-1.56

12.94

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMar'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Mar '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 489.6 411.11

as on Jan 23, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 1.32 2.10 -2.00 0.27 MoM -5.45 -3.80 YoY -24.15 -24.52

.Source: Reuters

Domestic Production and Exports

Mills in the country have produced 7.96 mln tn sugar in the first three months of the season, up nearly 2.5% a year ago. In Maharashtra, the largest sugar producer in the country, 155 mills are operational and have produced 1.88 mln tn sugar till Dec 15, compared with 1.83 mln produced a year ago by 165 mills. In Uttar Pradesh, the second largest sugar producer in the country, total output as on Dec 15 was 1.03 mln tn, about 20% lower on year, as some mills in the eastern part of the state are still to commence cane crushing. The producers body has estimated sugar output lower at 24 mn tn, down by 2mn tn compared to the current year. Industry body ISMA has estimated 6.5 mn tn stocks for the new season beginning October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago. India may export 1.5 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.5 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5mln tn for 2012-13.
Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX Feb contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Feb NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Jan 24, 2013 Resistance 3220-3230

Global Sugar Updates

According to the Brazil Agriculture Ministry, The 2012/13 cane crush was at 531.35 million tonnes as of Dec. 31, up from 491.16 million tonnes crushed the previous year. The 2013/14 crush will likely surpass the current one. Brazil's main center-south cane crop will produce between 580 million and 590 million tonnes of sugar cane in 2013/14. Brazil will likely favor ethanol production over sugar from the 2013/14 cane crop. The 2012/13 sugar crop in Thailand, the world's second-biggest exporter, could drop below a forecast 9.4 million tonnes due to lower-thanexpected yield. The crushing season started on Nov. 15 and 1.9 million tonnes of sugar has been produced so far (Source: Reuters)

3195-3205

Outlook
Sugar prices may trade with downward bias on account of higher supplies and poor demand in the domestic markets. However, sharp downside may be capped on reports of lower cane plantings for next season in some parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka. Further, it is expected that government will take some measure to control prices, which are below the cost of production levels, from falling further so as to protect the interest of the millers.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| January 24, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: After gaining significantly since last one week, Soybean
futures witnessed correction on Wednesday and thus settled 0.55% lower. However, spot settled 0.3% higher on account of dwindling supplies in the domestic markets. Arrivals in the domestic markets declined to 1.5 lakh bags, while demand is comparatively lower amid crushing disparity. Soy meal exports fell by 34% in December to 5.10 lakh tn, according to SOPA. The country had exported 7,78,382 tn in December 2011. During the first three months of the current oil year (Oct-Sep), exports declined by 27% to 10.78 lakh tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Feb '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Feb '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3301 3271 755.6 725.3

as on Jan 23, 2013 % Change Prev day 0.30 -0.55 -0.16 -1.14 WoW 1.88 2.01 1.19 -2.48 MoM -0.36 1.29 5.82 4.50 YoY 33.97 28.75 7.19 2.61

International Markets
Soybean futures on the CBOT settled lower by 1.02% on Wednesday on rain forecast in Argentina. Soybean prices had gained last week on reports of downward revision in Argentina soy crop forecast by oil world. The weather conditions in Argentina in coming weeks will determine further price trend in Soybean. Oil World forecasts Argentinas 2012-13 harvest at 52.0 mn tn, down from 53 mn tn in December 2012, however, it is still higher compared with 39 mn tn produced in 2011-12 season. According to the USDA monthly crop report, Brazil will produce a record 82.5 mn tn of soybeans in 2012-13 due to hefty expansion in acreage and improving yield prospects. With the harvest just beginning in some areas, Brazil's planted area will likely increase by 9.2 percent to 27.34 mn ha.

Source: Reuters

as on Jan 23, 2013 International Prices Soybean- CBOTMar'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMar'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1437 52.03 Prev day -1.02 -0.76 WoW 0.03 1.40 MoM 2.01 8.60
Source: Reuters

YoY 18.42 1.25

Crude Palm Oil

as on Jan 23, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.08 -1.20 0.96 -0.27

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Feb '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Jan '13 Futures

Last 2410 438.2

MoM 9.50 7.61

YoY -24.02 -16.12

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil settled sharply lower by 1.14% on
account of profit taking on Wednesday. India's palm oil imports rose 27.4% on month at 783,091 tn in December, boosted mainly by poor domestic supply of alternatives and attractive overseas prices due to record stocks in key supplier Malaysia. To reduce imports and protect domestic industries, govt lifted duty on crude palm oil from 0 % to 2.5 % and also stated that the base import price on crude palm oil which is currently $447 per ton may be reviewed fortnightly. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jan. 1-20 fell 19.9 percent to 813,778 tonnes compared with 1,015,440 tonnes shipped during Dec. 1-20, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said on Monday.

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 4250 3494 Prev day 0.24 -0.03

as on Jan 23, 2013 WoW 1.31 -16.61 MoM -1.73 -16.31

Source: Reuters

YoY 21.30 0.26

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX Feb contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard seed Futures which gained sharply

on reports of extreme cold in north India, witnessed profit booking and settled marginally lower by 0.03% on Wednesday. Rabi oilseeds sowing are now up by 2.23% at 8.54 mn ha as of Jan. 18. Arrivals are expected to commence in February and thus no major upside in the prices is seen if weather condition improve in the coming days. Rapeseed area stood at 6.7 mn ha as of Jan. 18, up by 2.8% from a year ago.

Outlook
Soybean complex may extend the losses of the previous session on profit taking. Mustard seed prices are likely to improve on reports of ground frost in Rajasthan which may hamper the mustard crop yield. CPO may trade with negative bias taking cues from the weak Malaysian palm oil futures.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Feb NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Feb Futures RM Seed NCDEX Apr Futures CPO MCX Jan Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Jan 24, 2013 Support 718-721 3220-3240 3440-3465 430-434 Resistance 730-736 3300-3320 3530-3560 442.50-446

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| January 24, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures continued to trade higher yesterday extending previous sessions gains on account of low stocks and thin supplies. Good winter demand also supported the prices. Prices have also increased due to arrivals of good quality pepper from Kerala. Earlier, prices had corrected as Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. Harvesting of the fresh crop has commenced and is expected to gain momentum in the coming days. However, winter demand coupled with low stocks in the domestic markets has supported prices at lower levels. FMC is probing into complaints against movement in the pepper market which has pressurized prices. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is also weak due to price parity. The Spot as well as the the Futures settled 0.59% and 1.2% higher on Wednesday. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $8,100/tn(C&F Europe). Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia Austa variety are quoted at $7,000/tn and Brazil black pepper is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Feb'13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 39169 37795 % Change Prev day 0.59 1.20

as on Jan 23, 2013 WoW 0.95 1.52 MoM 2.89 8.23 YoY 21.56 15.90

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX Feb contract

Exports and Imports

According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by 47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April 2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of pepper during Jan-Oct 2012 stood at 102,340 mt, lower by 12% as compared to 1,15,780 mt in the same period last year. Total exports in 2012 are forecasted at around 1,10,000 tonnes. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 26% during January-September 2012 period to 41,923 tn as compared to 52,489 tn in the same period previous year. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Feb Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Jan 24, 2013 Support 37000-37400 Resistance 38100-38400

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 7 tonnes while off takes were reported at 6 tonnes on Wednesday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to previous estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Currently, pepper is in the fruit formation stage in Kerala.

Outlook
Pepper is expected to continue to trade on a positive note on account of low stocks coupled with thin arrivals. Winter buying demand may also support prices. However, increasing supplies coupled with higher output expectations may cap sharp gains. FSSAIs sealing of huge quantity of pepper and FMCs probe into complaints against price movement may also pressurize the prices.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| January 24, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded sideways with a negative bias yesterday. Prices have corrected sharply tracking higher sowing figures. However, fresh enquiries restrained a major downside. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region have pressurized prices. Sowing is complete. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.244 lakh ha till Jan, 2013 compared with 3.64 lakh ha last year. In Rajasthan, sowing is expected to increase by 10-15%. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.54% and 0.27% lower on Wednesday. According to markets sources about 75% exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,850 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 5-6 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 14159 13605 Prev day -0.54 -0.27

as on Jan 23, 2013 % Change WoW -1.21 -2.14 MoM -5.82 -10.93 YoY -11.60 -16.59

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX March contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 3,000 tn on Wednesday. Production of Jeera in 2011-12 is expected around 40 lakh bags as against 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (55 kgs each). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 0.26 1.92

as on Jan 23, 2013 % Change

Outlook
Jeera is expected to trade with some downward bias today. Higher sowing figures coupled with conducive weather in Gujarat may pressurize prices. However, export demand at lower levels may support prices. Demand from domestic traders and millers at lower levels may also support prices. In the medium term, prices are likely to stay firm as Syria and Turkey have stopped shipments.
Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 5450 6268

WoW -3.06 -4.48

MoM 3.39 -0.41

YoY 10.55 35.61

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures recovered from lower levels hitting the 2% upper circuit towards the end on account of short coverings. Huge carryover stocks have pressurized prices over the last few days. Good demand from upcountry market has supported the prices. Lower production estimates have also supported the prices. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. Production is expected around 55 lakh bags. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. There are reports that Turmeric Farmers Association of India have decided to fix their own MSP of Rs.10000/qtl. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.26% and 1.92% higher on Wednesday.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX April contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad and Erode mandi stood at 2,000 bags and 1,000 bags respectively on Wednesday. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 64-65 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric prices may recover from lower levels today as lower output concerns coupled with demand from stockists may support prices at lower levels. However, higher carryover stocks and weak overseas demand may pressurize prices.
.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX March Futures Turmeric NCDEX April Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Jan 24, 2013

Support 13440-13510 6070-6170 Resistance 13660-13740 6340-6420

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| January 24, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas which opened higher taking cues from the firm international markets declined towards the end amid weak sentiments in the domestic markets. MCX Cotton settled 0.18% higher while NCDEX Kapas settled 0.22% lower on Wednesday. However, demand is expected to pick up at lower levels to meet the cotton yarn export registrations. Registration for exports of cotton yarn has hit the highest in at least two years on burgeoning demand from Indias perennially importing countries i.e. Bangladesh and China. Although, Cotton advisory Board has pegged cotton output lower at 334 lakh bales, Cotton Association of India (CAI), expects output to be around 353 lakh bales in 2012-13. According to the data released by Cotton Corporation of India, Supplies until Jan 13 are down 6.3 percent to 12.5 mn bales of 170 kg each, down from 12.9 mn bales a year earlier. Arrivals were down by 10 percent as th on 16 Dec. ICE Cotton continued to trade higher for the sixth day and settled 0.69% higher on Wednesday. Prices have traded on a bullish note hitting a fresh 8 month high last week on back of index buying. Hopes of demand from China led to a sharp increase over the week. Concerns about the quality of cotton to be released by China also supported the prices.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 901 16300

as on Jan 23, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW MoM -0.22 -2.44 -11.32 0.18 -0.18 -0.18 YoY #N/A -7.96

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 80.48 81.35

as on Jan 23, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.69 4.07 0.00 0.00 MoM 6.05 0.00 YoY -16.96 -29.20

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Boards (CAB) estimates (4 Oct 2012) for 2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton production is pegged 334 lakh bales, down 5.6% from the previous years estimates of 353 lakh bales. Lower opening stocks coupled with estimated lower output will result in lower supplies this season at 374 lakh bales, a decline of 8.7% compared with last years 410.77 lakh bales. On the consumption front, domestic consumption is estimated higher at 270 lakh bales on the back of higher mill consumption. However, after witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 70 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.
Source: Telequote
th

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Jan contract

Global Cotton Updates

China, the world's biggest buyer of cotton, began selling a tiny fraction of its massive stockpile of the fibre on Monday, in a move to ease domestic supply shortages. Beijing has been building a strategic stockpile of cotton since 2011, paying above global prices to support its farmers, but the policy has hurt China's textile mills, which have been struggling with tight supplies, and high prices, at home. Many in the industry were expecting China to reward mills that buy state reserves with new import quotas enabling them to buy cheaper overseas supplies. But no such deal was announced. Brazils 2012-13 cotton production forecast at 6.3 million bales, down 27 percent from 2011/12 production now estimated at 8.6 million bales. (USDA attach report)

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX Jan Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Jan 24, 2013 Support 890-895 16200-16250 Resistance 910-915 16360-16420

Outlook
Cotton prices may trade on a mixed note today. Higher output expectations by Cotton Association of India have turned the sentiments negative for the cotton prices. However, downside may be limited as farmers may not sell their stocks at lower prices. Reports that the Government may purchase cotton from farmers to avoid distress sales may also support prices. Also, anticipated export demand from the neighboring countries may support prices.

www.angelcommodities.com