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Week 13

Prisoners Dilemma Augmented reality

Last week
Overview of concepts and technologies being used in the development of intelligent systems
(Artificial) Neural Networks Genetic algorithms Fuzzy logic Intelligent agents

Brief introduction to the concepts, and how these ideas are applied in MSS development
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This week

Game theory

The Prisoners Dilemma

Concepts relating to Augmented Reality (AR)

Game Theory

Game theory - introduction

Also called Multi-person Decision Theory Analyses the decision-making process when there is more than one decision-maker (player)

Each players outcome (or payoff) depends on the actions taken by the other players

Game theory - introduction

Each players action depends on

o o o

the actions available to each player each player's preferences about the outcomes each player's beliefs about which actions are available to each player and how each player ranks the outcomes each players beliefs about other player's beliefs, etc.

Cutting the (delicious chocolate) cake - cutter and chooser

o

if the cutter makes one slice bigger than the other

o
o

the chooser will take the biggest slice!

...better to make slices as near equal as possible
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Game Theory

Prisoners Dilemma
Art and Don are arrested for a crime
if Art confesses and incriminates Don
Art goes free, Don gets 5 years

if Art does not confess, but Don incriminates Art

Don goes free, Art gets 5 years

if both Art and Don confess and incriminate each other

they both get 4 years

if both Art and Don do not confess

they both get 2 years

they are told the same thing but they cannot communicate could they trust each other if they could communicate...? 7 what does each decide to do?

Game Theory

Prisoners Dilemma
Mutual co-operation gives the best outcome for Art and Don (together as a group)
minimum total time spent in jail

Any other outcome less good for the group

might be better for one, but worse for the other might be worse for both total jail time overall would be greater

Selfish action (betrayal) gives the worst outcome for Art and Don (individually and together)

Game Theory

Prisoners Dilemma
if Art says nothing
hell get 2 years if Don says nothing hell get 5 years if Don confesses

if Art talks, he might go free

but if Don talks as well, theyll both get 4 years

Don

Ssh!
Ssh! -2, -2 Art

Talk

-5, 0 -4, -4

if Don says nothing

hell get 2 years if Art says nothing hell get 5 years if Art confesses

Talk

0, -5

if Don talks, he might go free

but if Art talks as well, theyll both get 4 years

Is it better to co-operate or defect (betray)?

Game Theory

Prisoners Dilemma
Don Don

Ssh!
Ssh! win-win Art

Talk
lose-win lose-lose

Ssh!
Ssh! Art

Talk

-4 -5

-5 -8

Talk

win-lose

Talk

Payoff matrix in win-lose format

Payoff matrix in penalty format

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Game Theory

Prisoners Dilemma Variation: exchange of closed bags

o
o

Full

Goods

Empty

bag 1 should contain goods bag 2 should contain payment

Full win-win

lose-win lose-lose

Cash
Empty win-lose

If both bags are full: win-win

o

What happens if one bag is empty? What happen if both bags are empty?
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Game Theory

Prisoners Dilemma Variation: exchange of closed bags, but played every month
o o

Full

Goods

Empty

bag 1 should contain goods bag 2 should contain payment

Full win-win

lose-win lose-lose

Cash
Empty win-lose

If both bags are full: win-win

o o

What happens if one bag is empty? What happen if both bags are empty? What happened last time? What will be your strategy this time?
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Introduces memory
o o

Game Theory - examples

Prisoners Dilemma (PD) and Iterated Prisoners Dilemma (IPD) can be applied: 2 salesmen selling to 2 client companies 2 companies competing for new employee 2 military generals attacking/defending 2 locations

2 companies deciding whether to advertise competing products

2 political candidates seeking support from colleagues (David Cameron and Nick Clegg as leaders of Con-Dem alliance)

All examples of two-player non-zero-sum games

Game theory can be applied to o airline competition o coalition formation to apply political pressure o plant location o product diversification o to derive optimal pricing, competitive bidding strategies and making investment decisions

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Game Theory: Strategies

Strategies for playing IPD

Always co-operate
will be beaten but nasty strategies

Always defect
greedy strategies do not do well long-term

Tit-for-tat
start by co-operating, then copy opponent

Spiteful
co-operates until opponent defects, then always defects

Mistrust
start by defecting, then copy opponent
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Game Theory: Strategies

Successful strategies
o

nice
o

does not defect before opponent does punish defection - it does not pay to be too nice will retaliate, but will then co-operate if opponent does avoids long-term revenge not trying to out-score opponent

retaliate
o

forgive
o o

non-envious
o

Could ideas from IPD show how altruism evolved?

o o

Sometimes it is selfish to appear to be nice! Nice guys finish first...

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Game theory - applications

Game theory is
uniquely qualified to make sense of the forces at work in relation to executive decision-making, i.e. to the strategies of some actual corporations caught up in conglomerate warfare
McDonald (1970) from Davis (1997)
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Augmented Reality

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Augmented Reality (AR)

Augmented Reality - a range of applications o computer-generated images appear in the world viewed through a camera/smartphone o additional information on real-world images provided

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Augmented Reality (AR)

Augmented Reality examples:
o

http://www.complex.com/tech/2012/02/the-10-coolest-augmented-reality-apps

Google Goggles Price: FREE Platform: iOS, Android

Goggles can scan barcodes to obtain product details, translate foreign language text, and even solve Sudoku puzzles

SpotCrime Price: $2.99 Platform: iOS

SpotCrime gathers the latest crime incident data from state and local police departments: including robberies, shootings burglaries, and much more. The "Safe and Secure" scoring system also informs users of the most dangerous areas, with high scores indicating safe zones

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Augmented Reality (AR)

Augmented Reality examples:
o

http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/mobile-apps/2010/08/03/a-tour-of-sapsaugmented-reality-for-business-40089706/

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Augmented Reality (AR)

Augmented Reality examples:
http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/mobile-apps/2010/08/03/a-tour-of-sapsaugmented-reality-for-business-40089706/
o

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Augmented Reality (AR)

Augmented Reality providing added value

Acrossair where is the nearest subway station in New York? show landmarks gives approximate distance
http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/mobile-apps/2010/09/30/a-look-at-seven-augmented-reality-apps40090355/ (last accessed 26 November 2011 no longer available) but see http://www.youtube.com/user/acrossair

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Augmented Reality (AR)

Augmented Reality providing added value

iPhone app for Paris subway by PresseLite overlays local information

http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/mobile-apps/2010/09/30/a-look-at-seven-augmented-reality-apps-40090355/ (last accessed 26 November 2011 no longer available) but see http://www.presselite.com/iphone/augmentedreality/

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Augmented Reality (AR)

Augmented Reality providing added value

Panoramascope iPhone app providing information about local area names of mountains gives approximate distance

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http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/mobile-apps/2010/09/30/a-look-at-seven-augmented-reality-apps40090355/ (last accessed 26 November 2011 no longer available) but see http://panoramascope.com/

Augmented Reality (AR)

Augmented Reality providing added value

Wikitude world browserinformation about local area places of interest gives approximate distance see: http://www.wikitude.org/category/02_wikitude/world-browser Image from: http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/mobile-apps/2010/09/30/a-look-at-seven-augmented-reality-apps40090355/ (last accessed 26 November 2011 no longer available) but see http://www.wikitude.com/

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Augmented Reality (AR)

can be used for computer games can be used for business applications
helping sales staff visiting clients

allowing visualisation of product stock levels check prices of product in different stores consumers try on clothes, glasses, etc 3D maps checking environmental conditions training undertake repairs under guidance

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Augmented Reality (AR)

helping sales staff visiting clients providing directions

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ps49T0iJwVg

business card http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1zMiyJ34vc&f

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Augmented Reality (AR)

allowing visualisation of product stock levels check prices of product in different stores consumers try on clothes, glasses, etc

Real J and Marcelino L (2011) Augmented reality system for inventorying, Information Systems and Technologies (CISTI), 2011 6th Iberian Conference http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=5974265 Wang R and Wang X (2011) Virtual Store Design in Collaborative Virtual Environments: History, Characteristics, and Culture, Proceedings of the 2011 15th International Conference on Computer Supported Cooperative Work in Design http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=5960208

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www.specsavers.co.uk 9 January 2013

Augmented Reality (AR)

3D

maps http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFwzFby2eNo

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Accessed 9 January 2013

Augmented Reality (AR)

checking environmental conditions http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxr8oaRUq6k

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Accessed 9 January 2013

Augmented Reality (AR)

training undertake repairs under guidance http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9KPJlA5yds

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Accessed 9 January 2013

References and suggested reading for this week

Aleksander I & Morton H (1991), An Introduction to Neural Computing, Chapman & Hall Davis, M, 1997, Game Theory: a non-technical introduction, Dover Laudon, K. & Laudon, J., 2004, Management Information Systems, 8th ed., Pearson Prentice Hall Other intelligent techniques: chapter 10, pages 333-339 Turban E. & Aronson J.E., 2001, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 6th ed., Prentice Hall Neural Computing (the basics): chapter 15, pages 605-621, 634-636 Neural Computing Applications: chapter 16, pages 651-661 Genetic algorithms: chapter 16, pages 664-671 Fuzzy Logic: chapter 16, pages 672-676 Look up game theory and/or the prisoners dilemma on the web
e.g. http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Prisoner's+Dilemma and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory

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Websites with AR information, papers and examples

http://studierstube.icg.tu-graz.ac.at/index.php http://0delivery.acm.org.emu.londonmet.ac.uk/10.1145/1520000/1514382/04538819.pdf?key1=1514382 &key2=7267870921&coll=DL&dl=ACM&CFID=112784255&CFTOKEN=90863056 (need to login with londonmet id and password if outside the university) TED talks: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frrZbq2LpwI and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvyfHuKZGXU Series of videos: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhjuZMEJ4-U&list=PL7D6F0D50BA78BCF0 http://www.technologyreview.com/view/417475/microsoft-adds-augmented-reality-to-bing-maps/ http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/security/2010/10/28/augmented-reality-scheme-aims-to-fightterrorism-40090679/ http://www.zdnet.com/sap-leads-businesses-into-augmented-reality-3040089671/ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5M-oAmBDcZk
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ni9nAm-Thsw last accessed 9 January 2013