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International Commodities Content Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today Research Team Nalini

International Commodities

Content

Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team

Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104view:

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| December 31, 2012

International Commodities Content Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today Research Team Nalini

D Vijiya Rao - Research Analyst

vijiya.d@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6134view

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.

Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

International Commodities Overview  US Pending Home Sales rose 1.7 percent in the month of November.

International Commodities

Overview

US Pending Home Sales rose 1.7 percent in the month of November. Italian 10-y Bond Auction yields rose to 4.48|1.5 levels. US Chicago PMI rose to 51.6 levels in the month of December French Consumer Spending m/m rose to 0.2 percent in November.

Asian markets are trading on a bearish note as the US fiscal cliff issue remains unresolved. The US law makers are holding discussion today also to avert the $600 million budget deficit. However positive manufacturing data from the China is expected to cushion sharp fall.

US Pending home sales data increased 1.7 percent in the month of November as compared to 5 percent in month of October. Chicago PMI rose to 51.6 levels in the month of December as compared to 50.4 levels in November.

US Dollar Index (DX) remained volatile throughout the week. The index settled 0.1 percent higher week on week as the talks amongst the US law makers remained stalled. This caused risk aversion in the global markets and increased the demand for low yielding currency that is DX.

US equities settled lower on weekly basis due to lingering concerns fo the fiscal cliff issue. Equities had earlier witnessed strength on hopes that President Barack Obama and US law makers might be able to strike a deal over the issue. But the stalemate condition caused risk aversion and caused bearish market sentiments. The index touched a Weekly high of 79.69 and closed at 79.79 on Friday.

The Indian Rupee appreciated 0.6 percent on weekly basis due to sustained capital inflows from the foreign institutions along amidst selling of dollars by the exporters. The currency had witnessed volatile trend during the week taking cues from the international markets which were deriving the movement from the fiscal cliff issue of the US which remained unresolved yet. In the domestic market, the participants also adopted a cautious approach before the trade data scheduled to be released on December 31 st 2012. The rupee closed at 54.76 after touching a high of 54.68 in the last week.

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| December 31, 2012

International Commodities Overview  US Pending Home Sales rose 1.7 percent in the month of November.

Market Highlights (% change)

as on 28 December, 2012

 

Last

Prev day

w-o-w

m-o-m

y-o-y

INR/$

54.76

0.3

0.6

1.7

-3.4

(Spot)

$/Euro

1.3214

-0.2

0.2

2.0

2.2

(Spot)

Dollar

79.79

0.1

0.1

-0.7

-1.4

Index

NIFTY

5908.4

0.7

1.0

3.2

25.6

SENSEX

19444.8

0.6

1.1

3.2

23.6

DJIA

12938.11

-1.2

-1.9

-0.4

6.5

S&P

1385.0

-2.1

-3.0

-0.4

11.2

Source: Reuters

Euro ended 0.2 percent higher on a weekly basis. Strength in the Euro was on reports that German Finance Minister said that the worst of the euro zone debt crisis is over. However, towards the end of the week unfavorable data from the region and the stalemate condition over the US fiscal cliff issue created risk aversion and supported an upside in the US Dollar Index. The currency touched a weekly high of 1.3284 and closed at 1.3214 on Friday.

Italian 10-y Bond Auction yields rose to 4.48|1.5 levels indicating a rise in the borrowing costs. French Consumer Spending m/m rose to 0.2 percent in November as compared to a decline of 0.1 percent in the month of October.

For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 24,183.30 crores. While for the year 2012, net capital inflows stood at Rs. 1,27,455.30 crores.

International Commodities Bullion Gold Spot gold prices declined 0.1 percent week on week due to long

International Commodities

Bullion

Gold

Spot gold prices declined 0.1 percent week on week due to long liquidation by the market participants at the end of the year. Strength in the DX also acted as bearish factor of the gold prices. However, gains were witnessed in the early part of the week on the back of safe haven buying by the market participants as US fiscal cliff issue stands unresolved as the deadline nears. (January 1 st 2013).

The yellow metal touched a weekly low of $ 1,1635.24/oz and closed at $ 1,654.9 per ounce on Friday. On the MCX, Gold February contract ended 0.7 percent lower on account of appreciation in the Indian rupee and traced bearishness in the spot gold prices. Gold prices on the MCX closed at Rs. 30,663/10 gms on Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs. 30,621/ 10gms.

Silver

Spot silver witnessed mild gains of 0.1 percent week on week taking cues from firmness in the base metals pack. However, strength in DX along with bearishness in spot gold prices capped gains in the silver prices.

The white metal touched a weekly high of $ 29.61/oz and closed at $ 30.0 per oz on Friday. In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices fell 1.3 percent and closed at Rs. 57,516/kg on Friday and touched a weekly low of Rs. 57,440 / kg. Appreciation in the Indian rupee exerted downside pressure on silver prices on MCX.

Outlook

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| December 31, 2012

International Commodities Bullion Gold Spot gold prices declined 0.1 percent week on week due to long

Market Highlights - Gold

(% change)

as on 28 December, 2012

 

Prev

Gold

Unit

Last

day

WoW

MoM

YoY

 

1654.9

-0.5

-0.1

-3.7

6.6

Gold (Spot)

$/oz

Gold (Spot

Rs/10

30370.0

-0.2

0.3

#N/A

12.5

-Mumbai)

gms

Gold

1657.5

0.4

0.4

-3.0

3.2

(LBMA-PM

$/oz

Fix)

Comex

 

1654.9

-0.5

-0.3

-3.6

5.9

Gold

$/oz

(Feb’13)

MCX

Gold

Rs /10

30663.0

-0.5

-0.7

-3.9

10.9

(Feb’13)

gms

 

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

 

as on 28 December, 2012

Silver

Unit

Last

Prev day

WoW

MoM

YoY

Silver

30.0

-0.5

0.1

-11.1

10.9

(Spot)

$/oz

Silver (Spot

Rs/1 kg

57846.0

0.1

0.1

-9.7

11.3

-Mumbai)

 

Silver

30.2

1.3

0.9

-10.9

5.2

(LBMA)

$/oz

Comex

 

2992.0

-0.9

-0.7

-11.2

10.0

Silver

$/ oz

(Mar’13)

MCX

Silver

57516.0

-1.1

-1.3

-8.9

#N/A

(Mar’13)

Rs / kg

Source: Reuters

In the intra-day, we expect precious metals to remain volatile as the US fiscal cliff issue remains unresolved as the deadline to avert the same nears. Safe haven buying by the market participants might be initiated. US law makers are expected to discuss the issue today also. Silver prices are expected to trade firm taking cues from strength in the industrial metals. In the domestic markets depreciation in the Rupee will act as a supportive factor for the precious metals on MCX.

Technical Outlook

valid for December 31, 2012

 

Unit

Support

Resistance

Spot Gold

$/oz

1656/1652

1663/1667

MCX

Gold Feb’13

Rs/10 gms

30620/30550

30750/30820

Spot Silver

$/oz

30.05/29.90

30.30/30.50

MCX

Silver Mar’13

Rs/kg

57400/57200

57900/58200

Technical Chart – Spot Gold

International Commodities Bullion Gold Spot gold prices declined 0.1 percent week on week due to long

Source: Telequote

International Commodities Energy Crude Oil Nymex crude oil prices gained 2.41 percent in the last week

International Commodities

Energy

Crude Oil

Nymex crude oil prices gained 2.41 percent in the last week due to decline in US crude oil inventories. However, strength in the DX capped gains in the crude oil prices. Additionally, US fiscal cliff which remained unresolved led to expectations that it can threaten the economic growth and affect demand for the fuel. Crude oil prices touched a weekly high of $91.49/bbl and closed at $90.71/bbl in the last trading session of the week.

On the domestic bourses, prices rose but appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains and closed at Rs. 4,995/bbl on Friday after touching a high of Rs.5,040/bbl in the last week ..

EIA Inventories Data

As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report on Friday, US crude oil

inventories declined less than expectations by 586,000 barrels to 371.10 million barrels for the week ending on 21st December 2012. Gasoline stocks rose by 3.78 million barrels to 223.10 million barrels and whereas distillate stockpiles gained by 2.42 million barrels to 119.40 million barrels for the last week ..

Natural Gas:

On a weekly basis, Nymex natural gas prices gained by more than 3

percent on the back of decline in US natural gas inventories coupled with expectations of cooler winter weather. However, strength in the DX capped sharp gains in the gas prices. Natural gas prices touched a weekly high of $3.469/mmbtu and closed at $3.46/mmbtu in the last trading session of the week. On the domestic front, prices gained and touched a weekly high of Rs.192.80/mmbtu and closed at Rs.191.40/mmbtu on Friday.

EIA Inventories Data

US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly inventories on Friday and US natural gas inventory declined as than expected by 72 billion cubic feet (bcf) which stood at 3.652 trillion cubic feet for the week ending on 21st December 2012.

Outlook

In the intra-day we expect crude oil prices to remain bearish as the US law makers discuss over the fiscal issue which still remains unresolved.

The deadline to avert the fiscal cliff issue is December 31 st, 2012. This is expected to raise worries that US economy might be pushed back to recession if the issue is not solved. Strength in the DX is also expected to exert downside pressure on the crude oil prices. In the domestic market depreciation in the rupee is likely to act as a supportive factor for the crude oil prices on MCX.

Technical Outlook

valid for December 31, 2012

 

Unit

Support

Resistance

NYMEX Crude Oil

$/bbl

90/89.30

91.30/92

MCX Crude Jan ’13

Rs/bbl

4960/4920

5030/5070

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| December 31, 2012

International Commodities Energy Crude Oil Nymex crude oil prices gained 2.41 percent in the last week

Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)

as on 28 December,2012

 

Prev.

Crude Oil

Unit

Last

day

WoW

MoM

YoY

WTI (Spot)

$/bbl

90.7

-0.3

2.8

5.3

-8.8

Brent

110.9

-0.3

-0.1

1.5

2.1

(Spot)

$/bbl

Nymex

 

90.8

-0.08

2.41

4.98

-8.62

Crude

$/bbl

(Feb’13)

ICE Brent

 

110.6

-0.2

1.5

1.0

2.8

Crude

$/bbl

(Feb’13)

MCX

Crude

4995.0

0.1

1.7

3.7

#N/A

(Jan’12)

Rs/bbl

 

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas

(% change)

as on 28 December, 2012

Natural

Unit

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

Gas

(NG)

 

Nymex

$/mmbtu

3.469

3.43

0.52

-6.14

12.48

NG

MCX

NG

Rs/

191.4

1.65

-0.16

-8.99

12.79

(Dec ’12)

mmbtu

Technical Chart – Nymex Crude Oil

Source: Reuters

International Commodities Energy Crude Oil Nymex crude oil prices gained 2.41 percent in the last week

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart – Nymex Natural Gas

International Commodities Energy Crude Oil Nymex crude oil prices gained 2.41 percent in the last week
International Commodities Base Metals The base metals pack traded on mixed note last week with copper

International Commodities

Base Metals

The base metals pack traded on mixed note last week with copper and lead ending on a firm note. The prices witnessed an upside on the back of positive data from the US which showed that the labour market and the housing sector are improving. The profits of Chinese industrial firms displayed as increase of 22.8 percent which increased the appetite fro the metals. However, the US fiscal cliff issue still remains unresolved which restricted the rise in the metal prices.

  • MCX base metals prices, tracking the international prices also

declined. Appreciation in the rupee was also a supportive factor for the decline of the base metal prices on MCX.

Copper

Copper prices increased 0.6 percent in the last week. The increase in the prices was due to the positive data from the US and China. However, the US fiscal cliff issue and rise in the LME inventories excreted downside pressure on the prices. Strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the copper prices in the last week.

LME Copper inventories increased by 0.22 percent during last week and stood at 318,050 tonnes on Friday as against 317,350 tonnes on 21st December 2012.

Prices of Copper on LME touched a weekly high of $7,955.25 per tonne and closed at $ 7,893.50/tonne on Friday. In the domestic markets, MCX copper remained unchanged. In the domestic markets, prices of Copper on MCX touched a weekly high of Rs. 441.90 per kg and closed at Rs. 439.35 per kg on Friday.

Outlook

From the intraday perspective, the base metals are expected to gain due to positive data from China. However, the unresolved US fiscal cliff issue might exert downside pressure. Strength in the DX might also restrict gains. In the domestic markets, depreciation in the Indian rupee will support an upside in the metal prices on MCX.

International Commodities Base Metals The base metals pack traded on mixed note last week with copper

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| December 31, 2012

Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)

as on 28 December, 2012

 

Unit

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

LME Copper (3 month)

 

$/tonne

7893.5

1.0

0.6

1.9

3.6

MCX

Copper

Rs/kg

438.8

-0.5

0.0

1.5

8.8

(Feb’13)

 

LME Aluminum

 

$/tonne

2060.0

-1.0

-1.1

3.1

2.0

(3 month)

 

MCX

Aluminum

Rs /kg

111.6

-0.8

-1.4

0.4

5.7

(Dec’12)

 

LME Nickel

 

$/tonne

17158.0

-0.8

-1.4

1.2

-7.6

(3 month)

 

MCX

Nickel

Rs /kg

940.7

-0.6

-1.8

-0.1

#N/A

(Dec’12)

 

LME Lead

 

$/tonne

2322.8

-0.3

0.8

6.1

14.7

(3 month)

 

MCX

Lead

Rs /kg

126.7

-0.5

0.4

3.9

20.1

(Dec’12)

 

LME Zinc

 

$/tonne

2058.8

-1.7

-1.1

3.9

10.9

(3 month)

 

MCX

Zinc

Rs /kg

111.4

-1.9

-1.5

1.7

#N/A

(Dec’12)

 

LME Inventories

 

Source: Reuters

 

Unit

28 th

27

th

Actual

(%)

 

December

December

 

Change

Change

Copper

tonnes

 

318050

318000

50

0.0

Aluminum

tonnes

5216675

5222300

-5,625

-0.1

Nickel

tonnes

139074

138702

372

0.3

Zinc

tonnes

1223500

1224575

-1,075

-0.1

Lead

tonnes

323400

327650

-4,250

-1.3

 

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – LME Copper

Technical Outlook

valid for December 31, 2012

 

Unit

Support

Resistance

  • MCX Rs /kg

Copper Feb’13

437/434

441/443

  • MCX Rs /kg

Zinc Dec’12

111.9/111.2

113.2/114

  • MCX Rs /kg

Lead Dec’12

126.3/125.5

127.4/128.2

  • MCX Rs /kg

Aluminum Dec’12

112.2/111.6

113.4/114

  • MCX Rs /kg

Nickel Dec’12

942/935

954/962

International Commodities Base Metals The base metals pack traded on mixed note last week with copper

Source: Telequote

International Commodities Important Events for Today Commodities Daily Report Monday| December 31, 2012 Indicator Country Time

International Commodities

Important Events for Today

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| December 31, 2012

International Commodities Important Events for Today Commodities Daily Report Monday| December 31, 2012 Indicator Country Time

Indicator

Country

Time (IST)

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Impact

Bank Holiday

JPY

All Day

-

-

-

Low

HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI

CNY

7:15 am

50.9

50.9

Medium

German Bank Holiday

EUR

All day

Low