Report 12-028 24 December 2012 P R O P R I E T A R Y C L A S S I F I C A T I O N : B U S I N E S S - I N - C O N F I D E N C E

Flash: AT LEAST 7 DEAD IN FIRST, CONFIRMED USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN SYRIA

The Syrian opposition has reported the use of a poison gas in Al-Bayadah in Homs (map). Initial reports from the region coming in at 1400 Eastern yesterday indicated that about a dozen men fell victim to an unknown chemical agent. A physician at a nearby hospital ruled out Sarin, noting there were no deaths, but this was very soon after the attack was reported. Based on a review of dozens of reports overnight and this morning, however, it appears that 7 have died because of the gas and as many as 70 were either wounded or treated by medics or physicians. Six of the deceased are known by name to activists who said they did not know the identity of the seventh fatality.

The first and evidently the largest gas attack occurred in Al-Bayadah, a neighborhood in northeastern Homs. There were additional reports of a gas attack in Al-Khaldiyah neighborhood and a single report of the use of a toxic gas that injured dozens in nearby Deir BaAlBeh. One Homs resident spoke to a doctor who said the agent used in Deir BaAlBeh was not a Chemical Weapons agent per se, but a toxic gas. In addition, there was a single report made today at 0700 Eastern that Syrian aircraft dropped gas canisters (agent unknown) on Anadan, northwest of Aleppo. Anadan (map) has been an opposition stronghold since the first hour of the revolution.

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In this video (YOUTUBE, 09:11, Arabic), a rebel is asked (at 05:10) about the initial effects of the agent. He is speaking from a clandestine, makeshift hospital in a neighborhood we wont identify for OpSec reasons (a deep bow and Hat Tip to Rose for her indispensible and tireless help in translation): Victim: You feel your eyes are coming out, then [feel] something in the head and then you fall down.

Question: How did they hit you with it? Victim: We don't know [the method of delivery]. It was nighttime.

Question: What was the smell? Victim: Heavy, a strong heavy smell. Horrible.

Question: Have you smelled it before? Victim: No.

Question: Was it like tear gas? Victim: No. I know what tear gas smells like, and how I feel after [it is administered]. We couldn't breathe. And our eyes. Just felt the eyes were going to pop out, literally coming out.

The gas was likely a Lung-Damaging or Pulmonary Agent. At a Homs hospital yesterday (above), a victim of the unknown gas struggles for breath (YOUTUBE, 03:02). In the hospital, some victims scream in pain (YOUTUBE, 01:56).

ASSESSMENT: No proper analysis can be made without toxicology reports, and makeshift battlefield hospitals in Syria lack the most rudimentary of emergency medical supplies, much less sophisticated labs. Moreover, characteristics (e.g., odor) and lethality of agents varies widely as a function of toxin concentration. With these caveats clearly in mind, we can make some estimates based on what weve seen and heard in Syria. Lethality. The 7 confirmed dead suffered fairly rapid deaths an estimated 12 to 24 hours after exposure. That is consistent with certain concentrations of Chlorine Gas and Cyanogen Chloride (CK) as an aerosol, perhaps less so with Phosgene Gas (CG), all

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known to be agents in the Syrian arsenal. Assad also possesses Sarin and VX, but they usually kill within minutes, and reportedly the physician who treated the first victims apparently lost no one in the first few hours. Odor. The man in the makeshift hospital who had been tear-gassed in the past insisted this was no Riot Control Agent (tear gas is basically odorless) but an agent with a strong, heavy smell, horrible. Chlorine Gas has a suffocating, unpleasant odor, as does Phosgene Gas (CG) in high concentrations. Phosgene Oxime (CX) has a pungent, disagreeable odor, but it is an urticant (an agent that causes itching, stinging and welts), and there were no such signs in the videos. Cyanogen Chloride (CK) also has a strong, acrid, pungent odor. Nerve agents VX and Sarin are odorless as is the psychosis-inducing BZ (3-quinuclidinyl benzilate or QNB), and videos show no signs of QNB use (disorientation, hallucinations and phantom behaviors like plucking).

This man relates his experiences with the gas that has blinded him. Phosgene Gas, Chlorine Gas and Cyanogen Chloride aerosol can all cause severe eye irritation, corneal burning or blindness, but so can other agents (YOUTUBE, 02:26).

Chlorine. Available to Assad, Possibly Already Used. Known to be in Assads Chemical Weapons arsenal,1 Chlorine Gas may have been used in Al-Zabadani earlier this year.2 The agent interferes with the blood-oxygen barrier in the lungs and causes Asphyxia. Chlorine Gas is stored at Al-Safirah, Syrias largest Chemical Weapons compound and is made by the SYRIAN-SAUDI CHEMICALS COMPANY (SYSACCO) also located in Al-Safirah. Earlier this month, DER SPIEGEL cited a STATE DEPARTMENT source as saying the ALQAEDA-linked JABHAT AL-NUSRAH [THE VICTORY FRONT] seized a facility that produces the gas, a possible but not definite reference to SYSACCO.3 Phosgene Gas & Cyanogen Chloride. Available to Assad, Previous Use Unknown. CAPT Abdul-Salam Abdul Razzaq,4 an officer who defected from the Chemical Weapons program, said Assads arsenal included but was not limited to Sarin, VX, Phosgene, Mustard and Cyanogen Chloride. Estimate. While by no means certain and harkening back to caveats mentioned earlier, information on hand suggests that the chemical agent used to kill 7 in Homs, Syria, was likely Chlorine Gas, Cyanogen Chloride (CK) or Phosgene Gas (CG). This is a preliminary estimate that will likely change as more evidence comes in.
A Claim of Chemical Weapons Deployment in Homs. Under: Assessment Confirmed: Killing of Western Journalists by Assad Regime Deliberate. F ORWARD L EANING I NSIDER 12-014 23 February 2012. 2 An Air Force Intelligence Officer who is collaborating with the Free Syria Army informed them that he has received urgent orders from high command (Assad family) to use chemical weapons against the FSA and civilian population in [Zabadani]. This order was given on Sunday 2/5/12 for the army to prepare those weapons for use. Excerpt from: Syria May Go Chemical. Under Assad Is Killing Entire Cities. Iran Q UDS F ORCE Head Pays Syria a 2 n d Visit; Signs of Chemical Agent Deployment. F ORWARD -L EANING 12-007 4 February 2012. Available at the OSEN-HUNTER website. We concluded that the 3 most likely injurants deployed in Zabadani were CS, BZ or Chlorine. The Siege of Zabadani. Assessment in Part: Sufficient Signs of Chemical Weapons Use to Warrant an Independent Probe. F ORWARD L EANING I NSIDER 12-011 16 February 2012. 3 Al-Qaeda-Linked Jihadis May Have Already Seized Chemical Weapons. F ORWARD -L EANING I NSIDER 12-109 11 December 2012. 4 CHEMICAL WEAPONS DEPARTMENT Defector: Assad Will Resort to Chemical Weapons. Confirmed CW Use in Zabadani Where We Assessed Nightmare Agent Used. F ORWARD -L EANING 12-025 8 December 2012. Available at the OSEN-HUNTER website.
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Ehab Asi was one of those slain by gas in Homs. The blue discoloration of the skin may be a sign of cyanide poisoning, or it may reflect death by suffocation that any Pulmonary Agent can cause.

POSTSCRIPT ON U.N. PEACEKEEPER CW READINESS. Last week, Herv Ladsous, U.N. Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, dispatched to the U.N. DISENGAGEMENT OBSERVER FORCE in the Golan Heights Chemical Weapons Protective Gear to safeguard observers from participating countries such as India that cannot provide the equipment. RumInt: U.N. is diverting some of that gear to Homs. MULTI-NATIONAL FORCE REPORTEDLY STAGED AT SYRIA-JORDAN BORDER. The German newsmagazine FOCUS reports that U.S. and French special forces are staged at the Syria-Jordan border prepared for rapid entry into Syria when the Assad regime collapses to prevent Syrian chemical and biological weapons stores from being plundered by insurgents and terrorists. The magazine reported that Legionnaires with the 2ND FOREIGN PARACHUTE REGIMENT of LGION TRANGRE (FRENCH FOREIGN LEGION) deployed to Al-Mafraq, Jordan (map), there ostensibly to guard the refugee facility, are on stand-by for rapid deployment to Syria to help secure BW and CW sites. FOCUS claims the IDF deep recon unit SAYERET MATKAL is already deep within Syrian territory. LOOK FURTHER (in German).
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