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U P D A T E
KPR Mill
17,358 5,290 194 77
Rs 80.85
Sector: Textile
xxxo...
BSE Sensex Nifty 52 week high (Rs) 52 week low (Rs)
Bloomberg NSE Code BSE Code Equity Shares (m) Face Value (Rs) Market Cap (Rs mn)
KPRs new capacity is fully operational from January 5, 2012, increasing the Yarn capacity to 90,000MT p.a. Power situation to improve after June The power deficit in the state may continue till June when monsoon arrives, and wind-mills produce power. Henceforth, we expect the utilization to be in line with historical numbers. The state government has already fast-tracked power projects. We have revised downward revenue and PAT estimates for FY12. FY13 has also been reduced on account of expected utilization drop due to states power issues in Q1. A cocktail of right fundamentals and future growth potential With yarn capacity now increased by 60% to 90,000MT, KPR is poised to reap rich benefits from textile demand revival. KPR has the healthiest balance sheet among peers even with recent capacity expansion, modernization and debt for Sugar Mill. Growth drivers for FY13: FY13 will benefit from new high valueadd Compact Yarn capacity. Power self-sufficiency by H2FY13 will save costs and ensure operations continuity year round. Sugar mill operations will commence in Q3FY13. Textile sector will witness revival as cotton prices have now stabilized worldwide.
Share Price Performance % KPR 1 week 1 month 3 month 6 month 1 year -1.3 -4.0 -10.0 -15.3 -56.8 Sensex 0.7 -0.6 5.4 2.0 -10.5
Shareholding Pattern (Mar11)% Promoters 74.48 FIIs/ FVCIs DII Corporates Others 8.88 1.08 3.36 12.5
We have revised our Mar13 price target from Rs 240 to Rs 180, as power shortage will result in underperformance in Q1FY13 too, lowering the FY13 EBITDA and PAT margins. Despite challenges in FY12, KPR remains a quality stock, and amongst the best picks in the textile space. FY13 will see profit revival and FY14 could see return to full profitability. At a likely FY14 PE <2x, and D/E of <1x, KPR offers value at current price.
FY'07 4,974 1,359 584 27 11.7 21 15 NL 5.3 1.3 NL FY'08 FY'09 FY'10 6,064 7,477 8,340 1,384 1,097 1,641 793 101 504 23 15 20 13.1 1.4 6.0 19 2 10 10 5 9 4.6 7.7 8.3 6.7 5.1 5.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 5.2 9.7 4.9 FY'11 FY'12e FY'13e FY'14e 11,074 12,755 16,165 19,757 2,493 1,786 2,942 3,996 722 332 931 1,839 23 14.0 18 20 6.5 2.6 5.8 9.3 13 5 14 24 11 6 11 18 9.7 9.5 3.3 1.7 5.5 6.9 3.9 2.2 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.8 3.3 4.9 6.2 7.4
Revenue (Rs. Mn) EBITDA (Rs. Mn) PAT (Rs. Mn) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) ROE (%) ROCE (%) P/E Ratio (x) EV/EBITDA (x) D/E Dividend Yield (%)
NL = Not Listed
Four-s reports are available on BLOOMBERG, Reuters, Thomson Publishers and Market Publishers
17 Apr12
Performance Update
Underpowered in Q3FY12
Tamil Nadu power woes affect performance
TN power issues have impacted Coimbatore-based manufacturing facilities
Tamil Nadu is facing power shortage of ~4000MW leading to power cuts of as high as five-six hours in daytime in areas like Coimbatore. This has impacted the operations of manufacturing industries. Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Ltd (TANGEDCO) estimates power demand in Tamil Nadu to be around 11,500-12,500MW growing by 10% on back of industrial capacity additions. The Supply is pegged to be around 8,500MW at present, leaving the state with a shortage of upto 4,000MW. TANGEDCO has started a day per week as power holiday hitting the Coimbatore textile industry with an estimated Rs 3bn production loss per day. TNs Distribution utility has demanded a 64% rise in energy charges for FY13.
KPRs Q3 performance was affected as utilization reduced to 85% from 90% levels. Also, KPR had to bear additional power cost of Rs 45mn has it sought to buy merchant power to partially fill the supply gap.
KPR Mill Operating Income Raw Material costs Employee Cost Other Expenditure EBITDA EBITDA Margin% Depreciation EBIT Interest Other Income PBT Tax PAT PAT Margin % Q3FY'12 2,820 1,873 206 310 430 15.3% 255 175 133 13 55 1 54 1.9% Q2FY'12 3,401 2,443 181 312 465 13.7% 247 218 122 12 108 (2) 110 3.2% Q-o-Q -17% -23% 14% -1% -7% 3% -20% 9% 12% -49% -133% -51% Q3FY'11 3,037 1,819 253 262 703 23.1% 191 512 52 6 465 129 336 11.1% Y-0-Y -7% 3% -19% 19% -39% 34% -66% 155% 136% -88% -99% -84%
Rs Mn Q3 revenue declined 17% QoQ and PAT declined 51% QoQ. If we exclude the MTM loss of Rs 122.4mn taken as other expenditure in Q2, Q2FY12 EBITDA margin be 17.3%. Hence on a QoQ basis, there was a decline in EBITDA margin as well.
KPR achieved a nine monthly revenue growth of 15% YoY, at par with peer average. KPRs exports increased 44.5% YoY and
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accounted for 35% of revenues compared to 27% in corresponding period last year. While Garment exports increased 14% YoY, KPR stepped up exports of other products Yarn and Fabrics in YTD FY12.
KPR Mill Operating Income Raw Material costs Employee Cost Other Expenditure EBITDA EBITDA Margin% Depreciation EBIT Interest Other Income PBT Tax PAT PAT Margin % 9M FY'11 8,072 4,745 595 716 2,016 25.0% 548 1,468 172 14 1,310 367 942 11.7% 9M FY'12 9,314 6,694 610 671 1,339 14.4% 734 605 321 37 320 50 270 2.9% YoY 15% 41% 3% -6% -34% 34% -59% 87% 166% -76% -86% -71%
Steep fall in cotton prices in Q1 resulted in inventory writedown of Rs 278mn. Prices have maintained at stable levels, thereafter.
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material
prices
lower
industry
The higher raw material costs have lowered textile industry profitability in this financial year. Average EBITDA margin of peer group declined from 17.8% last year to 15.4% in 9mFY12.
Revenue (Rs mn) 9mFY'12 YoY 48.1% 26.5% 9.4% 23.5% 18.4% 17.6% 20.0% -50.3% 20.7% -13.7% -13.3% 15.7% 9,314 15.4% EBITDA Margin (%) 9mFY'11 27.8% 13.1% 25.0% 26.9% 13.2% 22.4% 19.1% 12.3% 0.8% -2.9% -4.5% 17.8% 25.0% 9mFY'12 28.5% 14.6% 12.5% 26.0% 16.5% -2.9% 20.3% -112.4% 2.4% -0.1% 2.1% 15.4% 14.4% Net Margin (%) 9mFY'12 9mFY'12 reported Adj 9mFY'11 5.2% 3.7% 12.0% 11.1% 3.6% 10.1% 9.1% -1.4% 0.7% -7.3% -9.8% 6.9% 11.7% 1.6% 10.1% 1.8% 8.5% 4.2% -9.9% 7.6% -175.5% 0.9% -11.2% -9.3% 5.0% 2.9% 4.5% 5.9% 1.8% 8.5% 4.5% -9.9% 7.6% -175.5% 0.9% -10.5% -9.3% 4.8% 2.9%
Large Integrated Players Alok Industries Arvind Ltd.* Vardhman Bombay Rayon Welspun India Nahar Spinning Mandhana Industries Mudra Lifestyle Garment Focused Exporters House of Pearl Fashions* Gokaldas Exports Celebrity Fashions Mean KPR Mill* 18,814 7,259 1,170 61,581 36,539 29,996 19,388 18,602 12,277 6,526 1,632
*Consolidated results **Q3 MTM loss excluded as KPR has not taken it to make results comparable, for Arvind exceptional profit on sale of JV stake in Arvind Brands excluded Negative margins excluded from average calculation
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D/E Sep-11 3.1 1.5 1.2 1.1 2.5 1.9 1.6 24.2 0.9 1.0 NM 1.6 1.2
KPR trades at a discount as far as its P/B and EV/ Sales multiples are concerned.
Note: CMP as of 17th April 2012, Outstanding shares as on 31st march 2012, except for Alok Industries.
We have revised our estimates for KPR Mill in FY12 and FY13 taking the YTD performance and states power shortage into account. While we had already projected a low margin of 4% for FY12, taking into account the cotton price volatility, unforeseen factors such as rupee depreciation and state power shortage has further affected YTD performance. Hence, we further reduce the FY12 projections. As the TN State power shortage will take some time to resolve, and wind-power will get efficient in monsoon season, we can expect first quarter of FY13 also to be impacted. Hence, we have downward revised FY13 as well.
FY12e FY13e FY14e Revised Previous Var% Revised Previous Var% Added Revenue (Rs. Mn) 12,755 14,003 -9% 16,165 17,743 -9% 19,757 EBITDA (Rs. Mn) 1,786 2,231 -20% 2,942 3,472 -15% 3,996 PAT (Rs. Mn) 332 566 -41% 931 1,367 -32% 1,839 EBITDA margin (%) 14.0 15.9 18.2 19.6 20.2 Net margin (%) 2.6 4.0 5.8 7.7 9.3
KPR has increased its yarn capacity by 60% with addition of highvalue compact yarn and melange yarn capacities. The compact yarn unit has gone fully operational from 5th January, 2012. FY13e will
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have the full benefit of added capacity. KPR has gained traction in exports with FY08-11 CAGR of 28% to reach ~Rs 3bn by FY11 by mainly exporting garments. In 9mFY12, it has stepped up yarn exports as well, and achieved an exports growth of 44.5% YoY. We expect the momentum to continue. KPR Sugar Mills will also commence operations from H2FY12.
TANGEDCO expects the power deficit to be overcome once wind-mill generation increases from June 2012 onwards. Many new power projects, including the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project are expected to be commissioned this year. TNs Chief Minister has also planned Udangudi Power Corporations 1,600MW project as a state government project and fast tracked it.
While KPR is already meeting 75% of its power requirements through Wind-Mills, its Co-gen cum Sugar Mill will give it 100% power selfsufficiency in FY13. This will help it save on power costs (power tariffs are expected to be increased this year) and increase its utilization levels. Compared to other peers, KPR will have a competitive advantage in power.
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25 20
15 10 5 0 Production
22.1 21.6
6.9
Exports 2011-12
Closing stock
We expect valuations to move towards historical numbers of 8x P/E and 5X, EV/ EBITDA as industry challenges are mitigated. With power situation expected to be normal from June 2012 onwards, stable cotton prices and increase of utilization to normal numbers, we expect KPR to cross Rs 180 per share mark by March 2013.
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804 13,224
2680 15,761
EBITDA
1,359
1,384
1,097
1,641
2,493
1,786
2,942
3,996
PBT Provision for Taxes Profit after Tax before Minority Interest Minorities Interest and Others
826 33 793 -
183 82 101 -
584
793
101
504
722
332
931
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Common Size
Net sales Other Operating Income Sugar Mill Income Revenue from Operations 100.0 % -2.7% 63.8% 4.6% 0.0% 3.2% 1.0% 2.6% 100.0 % -0.8% 64.1% 2.5% 3.2% 5.2% 0.8% 2.2% 100.0 % 0.2% 70.0% 2.9% 3.2% 6.6% 0.7% 1.8% 100.0 % -1.4% 62.0% 4.1% 3.1% 7.3% 3.3% 1.9% 100.0 % -5.5% 65.4% 3.9% 3.0% 7.4% 1.5% 1.7% 100.0 % -2.6% 68.6% 3.4% 4.5% 7.2% 2.3% 1.7% 1.0% 5.0% 72.7% 27.3% 7.3% 20.0% 0.3% 4.2% 16.1% 4.4% 11.7% 0.0% 11.7% 77.2% 22.8% 7.8% 15.1% 1.5% 2.9% 13.6% 0.5% 13.1% 0.0% 13.1% 85.3% 14.7% 7.5% 7.2% 0.4% 5.1% 2.4% 1.1% 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 80.3% 19.7% 8.5% 11.2% 0.4% 3.3% 8.3% 2.3% 6.0% 0.0% 6.0% 77.5% 22.5% 11.3% 11.2% 0.3% 2.9% 8.4% 1.9% 6.5% 0.0% 6.5% 86.0% 14.0% 7.5% 6.5% 0.6% 3.4% 3.5% 0.9% 2.6% 0.0% 2.6% 81.8% 18.2% 8.1% 10.1% 1.0% 2.9% 7.7% 1.9% 5.8% 0.0% 5.8% 13.6% 79.8% 20.2% 6.7% 13.6% 1.3% 1.7% 12.4% 3.1% 9.3% 0.0% 9.3% FY07 96.8% 3.2% FY08 94.6% 5.4% FY09 96.1% 3.9% FY10 96.3% 4.1% FY11 94.8% 5.2% FY12E 94.8% 5.2% FY13E 89.4% 4.4% 6.2% 100.0 % 0.7% 59.5% 3.3% 3.8% 6.6% 1.4% 1.6% FY14E 79.1% 3.9% 17.0% 100.0 % 0.3% 52.5% 2.9% 2.2% 5.7% 1.2% 1.4%
(Increase) / Decrease In Stock In Trade Consumption of Raw Materials Manufacturing expenses Power and Fuel expenses Personnel expenses Administrative & Other expenses Selling & Distribution expenses MTM expenses done in Q2FY12 Operational expenses for Sugar Mill Total Expenses EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Other Income Financial Expenses Profit before tax Provision for taxes Profit after tax before minority interest Minorities Interest and others Reported net profit
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Balance Sheet
FY07 Share Capital Reserves and Surplus Total equity capital Secured Loans Unsecured Loans Deferred Tax Liability Total Liabilities Goodwill Gross Block Less: Depreciation Net Fixed Assets Work-in-progress Investments Inventory Debtors Cash and Bank Balance Other Current Assets Loans and Advances Total Current Assets Current Liabilities Provision Total Current Liabilities Net Current Assets Miscellaneous expenditure Total Assets 318 3,009 3,327 3,938 225 317 7,807 6,053 698 5,355 1,328 3 1,219 599 272 133 383 2,607 1,365 121 1,486 1,121 7,807 FY08 377 4,711 5,087 6,032 212 337 11,669 9,494 1,160 8,333 136 50 1,679 942 594 182 562 3,959 581 228 809 3,150 11,669 FY09 377 4,722 5,099 5,118 190 396 10,803 9,924 1,719 8,206 3 2,070 1,184 462 229 551 4,497 1,792 112 1,903 2,594 10,803 FY10 377 4,985 5,362 4,392 158 534 10,446 10,104 2,414 7,690 255 1,360 1,161 522 149 668 3,860 1,117 242 1,359 2,501 10,446 FY11 527 5,437 5,964 7,130 122 419 13,634 11,764 3,620 8,144 1,775 2,944 1,252 397 70 564 5,226 1,372 139 1,511 3,715 13,634 FY12E 556 5,581 6,137 9,312 145 177 15,772 7 13,918 4,572 9,346 2,557 600 2,625 1,474 110 158 631 4,997 1,577 158 1,735 3,262 0 15,772 FY13E 556 6,280 6,836 8,381 173 496 15,887 7 17,114 5,883 11,231 600 3,138 1,762 102 158 634 5,796 1,584 158 1,743 4,049 FY14E 556 7,843 8,399 5,881 188 981 15,448 7 17,363 7,199 10,165 600 3,394 1,905 304 153 614 6,376 1,536 154 1,690 4,676 -
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Net Profit/(Loss) before Tax Add Depreciation Loss on Fixed Assets Interest Expense Interest Income Dividend Income (Increase)/Decrease in Trade/Other Receivables (Increase)/ Decrease in Loans and Advances (Increase)/Decrease in Inventories (Increase)/Decrease in Other Current Assets Increase/(Decrease) in Trade/Other Payables Direct Taxes Paid Increase/(Decrease) in Deferred Tax Liabilities Operating Cash-flow- A Purchase of Fixed Assets Proceeds from Sale of Fixed Assets Purchase of Investments Proceeds from Sale of Investment Dividend Received Interest Received Cash from Investing activitiesB Proceeds from Share Capital Proceeds from Securities Premium (Repayment)/ Proceeds of Secured Loans (Repayment)/ Proceeds of Unsecured Loans Interest Paid Dividend Paid Tax on Dividend Cash from Financing activitiesC Change in Cash= A+B+C Opening Balance Closing Balance
(343) (177) (460) (48) (784) (10) 20 (403) (2,282) 20 (50) 5 7 49 (2,250) 59 1,129 2,094 (13) (176) (85) (32) 2,975 322 272 594
(242) 11 (391) (78) 1,211 (65) 59 1,547 (302) 2 50 4 21 (225) (1) (914) (22) (384) (113) (19) (1,453) (132) 594 462
4 (97) 710 80 (674) (94) 138 1,574 (454) 10 (2,745) 2,745 10 20 (414)
(92) (38) (1,584) 77 (55) (186) (115) 638 (2,815) 26 (3,625) 3,625 6 17 (2,767 ) -
(221) (67) 319 (88) 224 (352) (241) 1,649 (2,944) (600) (3,544) 29
(Rs mn)
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Ratios
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E
Per Share Numbers EPS CEPS DPS Adjusted Book Value per Share Profitability EBITDA margin Pre-tax margin Net margin ROAE ROACE Growth Revenue growth EBITDA growth Net profit growth Turnover Net Asset turnover Net Working Cap turnover Debtors turnover Debtor Days Inventory turnover Inventory Days Payables turnover Payables Days Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio Solvency Debt Equity Leverage Ratio Net Debt / EBITDA Interest Coverage Valuation Ratios P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales Dividend Payout Dividend Yield
NM NM 5.3 1.5
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