The Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Market 20112021: Technologies for ISR and Counter-Insurgency

4.32.3 Small UAV

Skyblade Mini UAV Project Singapore Technologies Aerospace has produced the hand-launched, piston-engined Skyblade II for the Singapore Army. The company has also developed the electrically powered Skyblade III and is working on the heavier, 50 kg Skyblade IV. The latter has been partly funded by the Singapore Ministry of Defence (MINDEF).

4.33 Spanish UAV Market Forecast

Visiongain calculates that the Spanish UAV market was worth $40m in the base year of 2010. This is forecast to peak at $85m in 2018 before settling to $50m by the end of the forecast period in 2021. In terms of units, Visiongain assesses that Spain acquired 12 UAVs in 2010. This will peak at 15 units for each of the years of 2015-2017. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the Spanish UAV market over the forecast period of 2011-2021 is low at 2.5%. Growth will be robust in 2011-2016 with CAGR at 9%, but will be pulled down by decline in sales in 2016-2021 as CAGR will be at -3.6%.

The largest submarket in the Spanish UAV market in 2010 is that of tactical UAVs, with $15m in sales for two units. This will reach a high of $20m for four units in each of the years of 2014-2015 before settling to $15m for three units by the end of the forecast period in 2021. Coming in second was funding for development of a MALE UCAV at $12m in 2010, which could reach a high of $45m by 2019-2020, and in third was funding for development of a UCAV at $10m, which could be as high as $25m by 2021. Small UAVs came in last with $3m for 10 units in 2010 and growth in value not expected to be much higher.

Support for UCAV development will show the strongest CAGR over the forecast period of 2011-2021 at 9.6%. Spending on tactical UAVs will be flat while MALE UAV spend will decline slightly at -1.8% CAGR over the forecast period.

See Tables 4.66 to 4.69 and Figures 4.68 to 4.71.

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Table 4.66 Spanish UAV Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %, units)
2010 Sales $m AGR % Units 12 40 2011 39 -2.5 2 2012 47 20.5 4 2013 50 6.4 4 2014 70 40.0 5 2015 65 -7.1 15 2016 60 -7.7 15 2017 70 16.7 15 2018 80 14.3 14 2019 85 6.3 6 2020 50 -41.2 3 2021 50 0 4

Source: Visiongain 2011

Table 4.67 Spanish UAV Market Forecast CAGR (%) 20112021, 2011-2016, and 2016-2021
2011-2021 CAGR (%) 2.5 2011-2016 9.0 2016-2021 -3.6

Source: Visiongain 2011

Figure 4.68 Spanish UAV Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m)

100 90 80 70 60 Sales $m 50 40 30 20 10 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: Visiongain 2011

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Figure 4.69 Spanish UAV Market Forecast 2011-2021 (units)
18 16 14 12 Units 10 8 6 4 2 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: Visiongain 2011

Table 4.68 Spanish UAV Submarkets Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %, units)
MALE AGR % Units UCAV AGR % Units Tactical AGR % Units Small AGR % Units Total AGR % Units 2010 12 0 10 0 15 2 3 10 40 12 2011 12 0 0 10 0 0 15 0 2 2 -33.3 0 39 -2.5 2 2012 15 25.0 0 2013 15 0.0 0 2014 30 100.0 1 20 0 0 20 33.3 4 0 0 70 40.0 5 10 65 -7.1 15 2015 30 0 1 10 -50.0 0 20 0 4 5 2016 30 0 1 10 0 0 15 -25.0 4 5 0 10 60 -7.7 15 2017 30 0 1 20 100.0 0 15 0 4 5 0 10 70 16.7 15 2018 45 50.0 2 2019 45 0 2 2020 10 -77.8 0 2021 10 0 0 25 0 1 15 0 3 0 0 50 0 4

15 20 50.0 33.3 1 0 15 15 0 0.0 3 4 2 0 0 -100.0 0 0 47 50 20.5 6.4 4 4

20 25 25 0 25.0 0 0 1 0 10 15 15 -33.3 50.0 0 2 3 3 5 0 0 0 -100.0 10 0 0 80 85 50 14.3 6.3 -41.2 14 6 3

Source: Visiongain 2011

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Table 4.69 Spanish UAV Submarkets Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, and 2016-2021
CAGR % MALE UCAV Tactical Small Total 2011-2021 -1.8 9.6 0 -100.0 2.5 2011-2016 20.1 0 0 20.1 9.0 2016-2021 -19.7 20.1 0 -100.0 -3.6

Source: Visiongain 2011

Figure 4.70 Spanish UAV Submarkets Forecast 2011-2021 ($m)

60

50

40 Sales $m

30

20

10

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year UCAV MALE Tactical Small 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: Visiongain 2011

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Figure 4.71 Spanish UAV Submarkets Forecast 2011-2021 (units)
12

10

Title

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Title HALE MALE UCAV Tactical Small 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: Visiongain 2011

4.34 Significant Spanish UAV Programmes 4.34.1 MALE UAVs

Part of Talarion Programme EADS, whose defence and security unit is now called Cassidian, has been developing the Talarion UAV. It has sought 300m Euros ($412m) spread over three years in additional funding from partner nations to continue development of the project. The original partners in Talarion include France, Germany and Spain; in May 2011, Turkey joined as a partner. Cassidian hopes to fly a Talarion prototype by 2014. Talarion will be powered by twin jet engines instead of the single- or twin-turboprop usually configured in other UAVs in its class.

EADS is developing the UAV for European nations demand for a European-designed MALE UAV, including under the UK-French OUAS requirement. In 2011, the BAE-Dassault joint project called

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